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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Have the Chiefs really turned things around? They crushed Las Vegas last week, but won in a very un-Chiefs-like manner against a rudderless Green Bay team in week 9. The Cowboys laid their own egg in Week 9 but bounced back in an equally convincing manner. The Chiefs are 2 /12 point favorites, but I can’t see them covering. So much is banking on Mahomes in this game. The Chiefs’ defense obviously played better last week, but the are still ranked 24th over all. While we aren’t talking league leaders here, there is no category that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t better by a considerable margin, in particular at forcing turnovers. Prescott has matched Mahomes in most categories, including average yards and has far fewer interceptions. As far as pass protection goes, Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and hit 58 times. The Dallas QBs have been sacked 14 times and hit 40. Mahomes has the advantage as a scrambler, but the Cowboys have a pair of top rushing threats in Elliot and Pollard. KC’s top rusher is 45th ranked Williams. I don’t think this team is up to last years’ Chiefs, and t is going to take more than one convincing win to change my mind. So as the say in Missouri, “Show me”, and then I’ll back the Chiefs. Let’s not forget that ugly number of KC against the spread. 3 and 7! The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they stole this game. Take Dallas |
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11-21-21 | Southern v. Nebraska -16.5 | Top | 59-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Southern/Nebraska Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars. Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going. The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records. Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle. Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. |
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11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show | |
Colts vs Bills How Jonathon Taylor goes, so go the Colts. While Taylor has been outstanding, his biggest days have been against inferior run defenses. The Bills have been formidable against pass and run, among other things such as third down and red zone defense and interceptions. Not to mention QB pressure. If Taylor comes up short, it will be tough on Wentz, who can be pretty average or worse (as in last week), to take up the slack with the passing game. After an abysmal game in week 9, Allen and the Bills came out flying last week. Allen has been impressive other than week 9, with 100+ QB rankings in 6 of 7 games.The Colts pass defense has not impressed, with an average QBR allowed of close to 100 and a 23rd ranked pass yards average. And while it may come from several sources, the Bills running game is still 10th ranked, against a 17th ranked Colts rushing defense. Beating the 6-3 Bills at home would be a feat. Can the Colts cover? If Buffalo can control the running game, this one could be lopsided. Take the Bills to win and cover. |
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11-20-21 | Wyoming +6 v. Utah State | Top | 44-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Wyoming/Utah State This is a big game for 5-5 Wyoming, which needs one more win to become eligible. It does have another chance next weekend, but with nothing to lose here as it tries to score the upset, I do indeed expect the visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch. The Cowboys are led by a rushing offense that is ranked 47th in the nation. Xazavian Valladay has 797 passing yards and five TD's. Titus Swen has 549 rushing yards and four major scores. I say Utah State, which smashed SJSU 48-17 in its last game, gets caught complacent here. Logan Bonner has 25 TD's and ten INT's this year, but the Cowboys are adept at defending the pass. I expect the visiting to hang around late, so grab as many points as you can! 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF YEAR on Wyoming. |
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11-20-21 | Western Illinois +9.5 v. DePaul | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Western Illinois/DePaul. A couple of 3-0 teams collide in this one and I expect it to be a real "nail biter." Western Illinois beat Iowa Wesleyan in its last outing, while DePaul held on for a three-point win over Rutgers in its last outing. Western Illinois does also have a nice quality win over Nebraska already as well. Will Caries led the team with 16 points, two assists and two steals in their most recent win. David Jones had 22 points and five boards for DePaul in its last outing against Rutgers. The Lumberjacks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite though. DePaul managed a win last time out despite getting out-played in several key categories. No outright, but closer than expected for sure. 8* MAULING on Western Illinois. |
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11-20-21 | Heat v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Heat/Wizards Miami is off five straight covers and four straight victories. With two nights off before a game at Detroit though, I think the Heat come out cold here. Washington plays with revenge after a 112-97 loss at Miami just two nights ago (and that's sigificant to note as the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.) I think home court matters in this one for sure. The play is Washington. 10* PLAYBOOK on Washington. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Boston College | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
FSU/BC Florida State has two more opportunities to become bowl eligible, while BC has already earned that at 6-4. That latest sixth win came last weekend in a 41-30 victory at Georgia Tech. FSU salvaged its season with a last second win over Miami at Tallahassee as well, as QB Jordan Travis has 274 yards passing, along with 62 yards rushing and two TD's. Eagles' QB Phil Jurkovec accounted for five TD's in his team's win last weekend, but I say an inevitable letdown is imminent here for the Eagles, who are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in their last outing. 8* HIGH-NOON BLOWOUT on FSU. |
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11-19-21 | Bulls v. Nuggets -4 | 114-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
Bulls/Nuggets In my professional opinion, this is a great "spot bet." A great spot to bet the Nuggets here who come in off back-to-back losses, including last night's humbling 103-89 setback to Philadelphia. That's back-to-back losses for the Nuggets now after they had won four straight. With a tough two-game road trip at Phoenix and Portland this week, tonight's game takes on added importance to bounce back. The Bulls have been great this year. They've already exceeded my expectations. They looked impressive in taking out both the Clippers and Lakers to open up their road trip, but off a loss at Portland last time out, I think they're primed for another letdown here in the finale of their Western swing. Nikola Vucevic is out for the Bulls, to the advantage goes to Nikola Jokic tonight. The Nuggets are still 4-0 ATS in their last four at home, while the Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points. 8* PROFITS on Nuggets. |
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11-19-21 | Arizona v. Washington State -14.5 | 18-44 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona/Washington State. Arizona is 1-9. It has nothing to play for here. Washington State is 5-5. It has everything to play for here, especially with a tough matchup in the Apple Cup at Washington next weekend. It's now or never for the Cougars to gain eligibility. They most recently fell 38-24 at Oregon. QB Jayden de Laura finished with 280 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's. I just can't see playing the role of spoiler being enough motivation for the Wildcats today. As Kramer once said to Jerry: "Stick a fork in them, they're done!" Arizona is off a 38-29 home loss to Utah. QB Will Plummer was decent with 223 yards passing and a TD. The Wildcats concede 29.5 PPG this year, while the Cougars allow 26. Washington State though is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. Arizon hasn't fared nearly as well for bettors in this spot though, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +13.5 to +15.5 points range. Good news for WSU's defense today is that Arizona is averaging just 17.8 PPG over its last five. Lay the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on Washington State. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | 25-0 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Patriots/Falcons: Ryan and the Falcons stunk out the field last week, Ryan finishing with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a QB rating I can almost count on my fingers and toes. Jones was excellent last week, with his best game of his first year, but one game does not make him the reincarnate of Brady as some are suggesting. The Falcons at home and in the bright lights as well, are not going to want to be humiliated two weeks running. Ryan is a consummate professional and can’t play any worse than last week. I am looking for a bounceback from the Falcons, and maybe a slight fall off from a rookie QB and the Patriots. Don’t expect a win out of Atlanta but they’ll keep it close. Falcons +6.5 |
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11-18-21 | Charlotte +4.5 v. Appalachian State | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Charlotte/App State Charlotte is 2-0 and I think it'll take 2-1 App State down to the wire (at the very least!) Most recently the 49ers beat SC Upstate 76-64, while the Mountaineers hammered William Peace by a score of 98-49 in their last matchup. The 49ers are led by Jahmir Young, who averages 19.5 PPG, while the Mountaineers are led by James Lewis Jr., who scored 15 points in his team's latest blowout. App State though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 90 or more points in its previous game. As for Charlotte, it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more straight ATS losses in a row. Grab the points. Charlotte. 8* SPECIAL. |
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11-17-21 | Pelicans +8 v. Heat | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
I don't think New Orleans will win this game straight up. If I did, I'd take it at +280. But I do think the Pels can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Clearly Miami is the better team. It's loaded with talent. The Pelicans are still without their best player in Zion Williamson until the new year. If you want a complete break down of every player on both teams and their strengths and weaknesses, then I'd recommend heading over to ESPN for an update. I'm here to tell you why New Orleans is going to keep this one close! The Heat have covered in three straight, but with the surging Wizards coming to town tomorrow, I say they get caught "looking ahead." Grab the points, this one has all the makings of a nail-biter! 8* COACHES PLAY-BOOK Pelicans. |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
NIU/Buffalo. Buffalo has two chances to try and earn eligibility. NIU is 7-3. The Huskies can improve their berth with a win, but I think the more desperate home side steps up and delivers in this crucial moment. Buffalo is off a humbling 27-point loss to Miami Ohio. NIU posted a tight one-point win at home over Ball State for its seventh win of the year and I think it'll have a letdown here. Rocky Lombardi is in unchartered territory and I expect him to stumble. This is Kyle Vantrease's moment to step up. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a 24-points or greater SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. The outright is possible, but grab the points! 8* SPECIAL on Buffalo. |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -15.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
Bowling Green/Miami Ohio. With a chance to earn bowl eligibility with a win today, I expect the Redhawks to not only win here today at home in this favorable matchup, but to do it in blowout style. Bowling Green is just 3-7 SU this year. It's a disproportianate 7-3 ATS though. Miami Ohio is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. Bowling Green was just torched 49-17 at home by Toledo and I think it'll have a difficult time keeping pace here today as well as an even bigger underdog. Miami Ohio ran up thescore in last weekend's 48-18 win here at home over Buffalo as a 7-point favorite and all signs point to a duplicate game-plan here. 10* COACHES CORNER Miami Ohio. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The 7-2 Rams face the home team 3-5 49ers. Both teams are off a loss; the Rams loss to the Titans particularly stung. Rams QB Stafford had a down game last week but he has been dominant this season with 8.89 yds per, and 23 Tds vs 6 interceptions. His opponent Garopollo has been ok for the season, and was decent in a losing cause last week, but his tenure is uncertain with the 49ers. The Rams lost Woods, which will hurt and add Beckam in some capacity and possibly Von Miller. The 49ers are also beaten up, missing their #2 running back, and other key pieces. The Rams have a pass-dominated offense, but can and may look to run the ball more this week. While the 49ers defense is strong against the pass, they are poor against the run. And while the 49ers don’t allow many passing yards, they still allow more than their share of passing TDs. The Rams defense protects well against the rush, but are average against the pass. They are very good defending in the red zone. Garopollo was sacked 5 times last week, which is not normal, but a disturbing trend. The Addition of Von Miller, if available adds to an already decent pass rush. The Rams have lost 4 straight against the 49ers. Off the loss last week, I like their chances to change that stat. The 49ers have lost 4 straight at home, and contrary to expectations, just don’t seem to have it together this season. Take the Rams to win and cover today |
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11-15-21 | Suns v. Wolves +4 | Top | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Suns/Wolves The Suns are 9-3 after their 115-89 win at Houston last night. With two upcoming home games against Dallas starting on Wednesday, followed by Denver and a four-game road trip, I think Phoenix finally stumbles here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Minnesota is off a 129-102 loss at the Clippers. The night before that they hammered the Lakers 107-83. Now the Wolves return home and I expect this healthy team to make a game of this one. Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the second game of a B2B after holding its previous opponent to 95 or fewer points in the first. 10* GAME OF WEEK Minnesota. |
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11-15-21 | Northwestern State v. SMU -21 | 48-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Northwestern State/SMU Northwestern State is 1-2 SU, but 3-0 ATS. SMU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. The Demons beat lowly Champion Christian last time out by a score of 91-62. Kendal Coleman had 19 points and 11 boards. SMU enters off an 86-63 loss to a good Oregon team. Emmanual Bandoumel was good in a losing cause with 14 points, five boards and one assist. The Mustangs are the bigger and more athletic team. The Demons haven't faced any tough teams yet. This is a David vs. Goliath matchup, but in this version, Goliath stomps the underdog through the hardwood. 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on SMU. |
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11-14-21 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 100-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Bulls/Clippers The Bulls West-Coast opener didn't go so well in Golden State, but I think this young, deep and talented visiting side can bounce back here and before the face the Lakers tomorrow night in this building. This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Clippers, who pulled away for a win and cover against the Wolves last night. Fatigue is an issue now at this point of the season. LA is dealing with several injury issues as well. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points in as well. I think the outright upset is in the cards. That said, let's grab the points. 8* SITUATIONAL COACHES CORNER on the Bulls. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | 41-14 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Anyone taking the Chiefs in this matchup is banking on a return to form from Mahomes. He has shown no sign of it, even in the win last week, throwing for only 166 yards, 1 TD, and 4.5 yds average. And it is not as if last week was a one-off. Carr wasn’t great last week either; while he threw for 260+ yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has allowed only five previous to that game. Carr can be explosive and has the highest pass yards average at 8.2 yds. To put this in context, Mahomes has been at 6.0 yds per completion since week 5. It is all about the passing game on Sunday; neither team has much of a running game, although the Raiders are improving. The Chiefs’ defense is lamentable, poor against the run and pass. They are 30th in passing yards per attempt average, and tied with Raiders at 28th against the run. The Raiders are solid against the pass (14th) and very good at limiting passing yards per (2nd). Where the Raiders really excel is in pressuring the QB. They are 6th in QB pressure and 2nd in QB hits. It could be a long evening for Mahomes and Chiefs’ offensive line. The Raiders have faced a ton of turmoil in the past weeks, but things should start to settle. Much is at stake in this game; I’m looking for Carr and the Raiders to put off-field issues behind them and cover if not win against the Chiefs. |
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11-14-21 | Western Kentucky +1.5 v. South Carolina | 64-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
WKU/South Carolina Both teams are 1-1, but I like WKU to come out on top here. The Hilltoppers beat Alabama State, then it came up short against Minnesota. The Gamecocks enter off a tight loss to Princeton and I believe they'll struggle again here. After only scoring 23 points in the first half against the Golden Gophers, WKU made a game of it last time out, eventually falling 73-69. I think Davyion McKnight, who had 34 points, nine boards and four assists, and company will keep the momentum rolling here. South Carolina beat USC Upstate, but then lost 66-62 to Princeton. Off that 46 point second half, look for the Hilltoppers to keep that good times rolling. 8* MAULING on WKU. |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 22 m | Show | |
The 3-6 Eagles are on the road against the 5-4 Broncos this week in what should be a close matchup. The Eagles running game has been very successful of late with three solid options, but the 8th ranked Broncos’ defense is much better than the Eagles’ last few opponents’. QB Hurts doesn’t throw for many yards, although he does contribute on the rush. Last week was one of his better outings, however he will face a very stiff Broncos pass defense. For the Broncos, Bridgewater has been solid and accurate, if slow off the mark. He has been sacked often; the Broncos’ offensive line has the injury bug. The Eagles pass rush really struggled last week with no sacks, and little QB pressure. If this continues, look for Bridgewater to have a solid game, and pick the Eagles apart.. The Broncos also have a decent running game of their own, with two viable options. The Eagles rush defense struggles, allowing 120 yards per game. The Broncos have a more balanced offense and a solid defense. They are tough to beat in Denver. Look for them to gut this one out. Some very favorable odds are available, so don’t wait on this one! |
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11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -3 | 21-23 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Saints/Titans The Titans, solid in their first game without Henry are home to the Saints who are without their starting QB and RB Kamara. Kamara is a huge part of the Saints’ rush and pass offense, and will be missed. The Saints did pick up RB Ingram, but he is not a complete replacement. Siemien played well in his two starts as backup QB, with 3 Tds and an 89.5 Qb rating. He has been well protected so far, but that may change this week. The Titans have been rough on passers, sacking the Rams Qb 5 times last week with 11 QB hits. The Saints will struggle to score points. Their passing attack is 31st rated; it and the run will both take a hit without Kamara. The Saints are a very well coached team, and have a highly ranked defense against the run. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They do not defend against the pass very well, so it may be time for Tannehill to step up the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has been average this year, but seems to generate offense when needed. Tannehill has been sacked 27 times this season, but the 31st ranked Saints don’t muster much of a pass rush, He has been intercepted 8 times, so controlling turnovers will be a key on Sunday. The Titans defense is average against the run, better than the Saints against the pass, but where they excel is getting to the QB. The Titans have handled some potent offenses in their five game win streak; the Saints, missing key players, would not qualify in this category. Tennessee is a successful team at home, and have a lot of momentum at the moment. Some decent odds are available. Take the Titans to win and cover. |
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11-13-21 | Wolves +6.5 v. Clippers | 102-129 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
Wolves/Clippers. I like the Wolves to keep the momentum rolling here after their big win over the Lakers last night. The Clippers are off a 112-109 win over Miami, but with a more high-profile nationally televised game against the Bulls here tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. Minnesota broke a six-game slide in last night's 107-83 win here against the Lakers last night. Fatigue won't be an issue this early in the season. Note that the Wolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU/ATS road victory in which they held their opponent to 90 points or fewer in as well. I won't call for the upset, but I think the confident Wolves take this one down to the wire again. 8* play on the Wolves. |
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11-13-21 | Davidson v. San Francisco -7.5 | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Davidson/San Fran. Davidson destroyed Delaware 93-71 at home on Tuesday, but I think it'll struggle to duplicate that success in this difficult road venue. The Dons smashed Prairie View A&M 92-76 on Thursday and they're now 2-0 SU. Davidson was 13-9 last year, but it lost its offensive heart in Kellan Grady to Kentucky. San Fran won't win the the conference, as it's in the same one as Gonzaga, but this is the best Dons team on the floor in years. They return four starters from last year and are led by Jamaree Bouyea, who had 24 points last time out. Look for the Wildcats to struggle on the road against this vastly improed Dons team. 8* MAULING on San Francisco. |
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11-13-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia +6 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame/Virginia Both teams are eligible. Each is looking to improve its bowl berth now. An upset victory over the Irish would sure look good on the Cavs resume. While it's not out of the question obviously, I'm going to grab the points in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments. The Irish have used three different QB's this season (Jack Coan, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne.) The Notre Dame defense is elite as well. Last week it held Navy to 6 points. The Cavaliers won their sixth game of the year, then they came up short in last week's 66-49 loss to BYU on October 30th. They come out of their bye week having posted 48 or more points in three straight games. With a week off to prepare, I think UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall will have a good game-plan drawn up. As I said, I think the outright/upset is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on UVA. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Auburn is 6-3 and it's now bowl elgible. Mississippi State is just 5-4 though, so I expect it to fight tooth and nail today to also become eligible. Outright win is possible, but let's grab the points. The Bulldogs are off a tight 31-28 loss to Arkansas, while Auburn fell 20-3 to Texas A&M. Mississippi State has lost three straight in this series, so it'll be motivated to reverse that trend. The Bulldogs are led by dynamic QB Will Rogers (great name!), as he's completed nearly 75.2 percent of his passes. Auburn has struggled against the pass, which doesn't bode well facing a Mike Leach offense. The Tigers have been good under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. RB Tank Bigsby is an offensive standout. Auburn though is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mississippi State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a conference road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. The Bulldogs have so far covered as a road underdog in both such instances this season and everything points to that trend continuing today. 8* SHOW-DOWN on Mississippi State. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Wyoming/Boise State. Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs. Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD. Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG). Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. |
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11-12-21 | Pistons +5 v. Cavs | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Pistons/Cavaliers. I've been impressed by the Cavaliers this year. They're 7-5 SU and they've won six straight against the spread. The recent loss of Colin Sexton is going to catch up to them though, and I firmly believe that'll be sooner, rather than later. The Cavs get caught looking ahead to their game here against Boston tomorrow night, while Detroit will look to take advantage. The Pistons have covered in two straight and they're off a big 112-104 outright win at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs last time out. This one sets up as a possible outright upset, but grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Pistons. |
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11-12-21 | VMI +2 v. Presbyterian | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
VMI/Presbyterian The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here. The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory. Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Ravens/Dolphins Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise. The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers. MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center. With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel. Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover.. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show |
UNC/Pittsburgh. UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory. Lay the points and expect a decisive result. 10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Raptors/76ers I like Toronto to bounce back here after last night's 104-88 loss at Boston. The 76ers are ravaged by COVID right now and I expect the Raptors to quickly regroup here and to take advantage. The Raptors have performed well in this position by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I'm not buying into the "fatigue factor" this early in the season either. Philadelphia has lost two in a row, and with a six game Western road swing on deck after this, I expect it to go through the motions here as it prepares for that daunting trek. Look for the Raptors to deliver on Thursday night. 10* COACHES CORNER on Toronto. |
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11-11-21 | Air Force v. South Dakota -9 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force/South Dakota. The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points. 10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. |
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11-10-21 | Florida Atlantic -2 v. New Mexico | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
FAU/New Mexico FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU. |
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11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Hornets/Grizzlies. I'm expecting an all out war until the final horn. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Charlotte. The Hornets played a back-to-back at LA, losing badly to the Clippers, but then bouncing back with a much better effort in what turned out to be an unfortunate 126-123 OT loss to the Lakers. The Hornets have now lost five in a row (both SU and ATS), but I expect them, at the very least, to give the Grizz everything they can handle tonight. Memphis off a tiring 125-118 OT home win over the Wolves, so I believe fatigue is a factor here. Also note that it's a look-ahead spot with Phoenix coming to town next. I believe these teams are evenly matched on paper. That gives the advantage here to the "hungrier" team, which as I've clearly pointed out above, is the Hornets in my opinion. 10* Charlotte. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
Ball State/NIU NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!) NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one. The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range. I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State. |
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11-09-21 | Miami-OH v. Georgia Tech -10.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Miami Ohio/Georgia Tech. I like Georgia Tech to roll over its MAC opponent today. The Yellow Jackets finished 17-9 overall last year, including 11-6 in the ACC. GT returns five of its top seven scorers from last year. The Jackets warmed up for this game by hosting Morehouse in an exhibition contest on Oct. 31st, defeating the Maroon Tigers, 89-52. The Redhawks finished 12-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play. Miami will be improved, with nine of its ten players returning, but I still don't think it'll be enough here. Tech is too deep and I expect it to send an early statement on its own floor. Lay the points, the play is GT. |
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11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -7 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
Buffalo/Miami Ohio. Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup. The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards. Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio. |
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11-09-21 | Siena v. St Bonaventure -20 | Top | 47-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
Siena/St. Bonaventure. Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament. Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round. The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home. All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here! 10* Bonnies. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers. Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets. The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against. The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week. The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover. |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Titans/Rams The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost. The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL. The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost. I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons v. Saints -6 | 27-25 | Loss | -123 | 70 h 42 m | Show | |
Falcons vs Saints The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well. This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games. Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run. I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today. Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend. Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home. Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch. |
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11-04-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Colts | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Jets/Colts The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date.. The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment. The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run. There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win.. |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -10 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
Giants/Chiefs Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game. Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense. The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 102 h 19 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Vikings. Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game. Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard. While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run. This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover. |
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10-31-21 | Bengals -10.5 v. Jets | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
Bengals/Jets It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers. To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals. Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets. Bengals will win and cover against the Jets. |
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10-30-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest -16.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 104 h 7 m | Show |
Duke @ Wake Forest Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents. The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy. With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Michigan @ Michigan State Two 7-0 teams collide on Saturday afternoon. This has all the feelings of a good old fashioned "slobber knocker." I think that the team that has possession of the football last is going to come out on top, it's seriously that close. And so, that definitely means that I'm going to grab the points and the determined home side. One thing benefitting MSU here is it comes out of its bye week. It's had an entire week off to prepare for this one. These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Their offenses for the most part revolve around the run game. MSU though is 5-1 ATS in its last six here against the Wolverines, while Michigan is interestingly 0-5 ATS in its last five against the East Division. There are more on the line that just bragging rights this season. Major implications for the College Football Playoff race and the Big Ten are on the line today. Everything points to, at the very least, a comfortable cover for the home side. The play is MSU. |
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10-29-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -2 | 75-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Dallas Mavs @ Denver Nuggets Denver is just 2-2. It's definitely looking to rebound off a 122-110 loss at Utah two nights ago. Here's the perfect opponent and opportunity to do just that. Dallas is now 3-1 after last night's come from behind 104-99 home win over the Spurs. With a much easier home game against Sacramento up next, this sets up as a very real potential letdown spot for the visiting side. Denver's had two whole nights off to regroup and prepare for this one. The Nuggets hit the road for three straight as well after this, starting in Minnesota tomorrow night. That puts added importance onto this contest for the home side. Whether Joker plays or not for Denver, I think the well prepared and much hungrier home side is the correct call here. Kristaps Porzingis is not the players he once was. He's constantly injured and may not even play for Dallas tonight. Luka Doncic is unbelievable, but after shouldering the load last night, I say he comes in fatigued here. Look for the Nuggets to find a way to deliver here. The play is Denver. |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 37 m | Show | |
Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy. On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB. 2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience.. Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks. I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover. |
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10-27-21 | Hornets -6 v. Magic | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic The Hornets have been pretty good in the early going. They're 3-1. That includes going 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread on the road. The Magic have been pretty much garbage to open, as they're just 1-3. That includes going 0-1 SU/ATS at home. Off a tough 140-129 OT home loss to Boston, a game that they led most of the way, I expect this young and talented Hornets team to take out its frustrations on this young and rebuilding Magic side. Orlando was most recently torched 107-90 at Miami on Monday. A game at home is not what the doctor ordered either to get back on track for the Magic, who are a putrid 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten at home (also a disturbing 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog.) The Hornets on the other hand are 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs a team with a winning percentage below .400. Everything is in place for a lop-sided road destruction for the Hornets. The play is Charlotte. |
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10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | 13-10 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game. Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already. The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out. I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover. |
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10-25-21 | Coyotes v. Panthers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Coyotes/Panthers The Panthers are 5-0 and at home. They have a goals for/against rate of 24/8. With the 0-5 Coyotes you can roughly reverse that stat. Bobrovski is playing like a champ at 4-0, .942. Hutton has started two games and has a save % of around .700! The only area that Florida has struggled is on the power play. That may change tonight as the Coyotes’ PK is shockingly poor. My only concern is that the Panthers take this game seriously. Take the Panthers to win - 1.5. |
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10-24-21 | Grizzlies +6 v. Lakers | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers The Grizzlies are off a relatively simple 120-114 road win here over the Clippers just last night and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. If this were the end of the season, I'd likely avoid playing on a team in the second game of a back-to-back, but in this case, I don't expect fatigue to be an issue whatsoever. Instead, I think Ja Morant and the opportunistic Grizz are to send a statement by beating both LA teams on two straight night's in their own building. Morant had 28 points in last night's win, while De'Anthony Melton added 22 points on nine of 16 shooting. The Lakers have issues. They're 0-2, most recently falling 115-105 at home to the Suns. LA shot just 39 percent from the field in the setback. LA is also 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. I expect this one to come right down to the wire. As such, grab the points and the Grizzlies. |
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 38 h 56 m | Show | |
Colts/49ers The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor. The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year. I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win. |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | 19-28 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Detroit Lions @ LA Rams Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion. In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath! The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG. The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams. LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog. I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA. |
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10-24-21 | Panthers -3 v. Giants | 3-25 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
Panthers/Giants Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up. The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run. The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks. A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack. The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run. What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover. |
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10-23-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Braves (Anderson, 1-0) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1) The Dodgers dodged a bullet in game 5 in a big way with a terrific performance from their bullpen. Today it is Buehler rather than Scherzer on the mound, and he is pitching on short rest. It is unlikely that his start will be of length today; his last two were only around 4 innings. Buehler has thrown well over 200 innings this year, and has not been as overpowering in the late season or in the post season as we have come to expect. The Dodgers got to Atlanta’s last starter, Fried. Can they do the same against Anderson? Anderson shut out the Brewers in the post season, but allowed 2 ER on three innings against the Dodgers in his last start. He is prone to poor first innings before settling into a game. He has been a much more successful pitcher at home. The Dodgers’ pen has performed well but the Braves have seen a lot of them. This game will likely be a similar situation. I wonder how long a tired bullpen can keep pulling rabbits out of the hat? The Braves’ bullpen is much better rested if not as highly rated. Both teams are very good against right handed pitching. The Braves are no doubt wondering if they are faced with a repeat of their previous post season meeting with the Dodgers. I am going out on a limb and saying it is not going to happen. Take the Braves +1 1/2 |
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10-23-21 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -3 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Pittsburgh I like Pittsburgh to keep the foot on the gas in this one. Clemson is 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC, most recently coming off a tight 17-14 win against Syracuse, unable to cover the large spread. The Panthers are 5-1 and 2-0 in conference. They most recently beat Virginia Tech 28-7. DJ Uiagalelei passed for 181 yards and one touchdown in Clemson's win last weekend, but he now faces one of the best defenses he's ever played against. Pittsburgh has conceded just 35 points in its past three games and it hasn’t allowed more than 100 yards rushing in those contests. The Panthers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Conference, while the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I think Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is on Pittsburgh. |
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10-23-21 | Cincinnati -28 v. Navy | 27-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Cinci @ Navy Now 6-0 including a huge win against the Irish at South Bend, the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the nation yet again this year. With 16 total TDs and only 2 INTs, QB Desmond Ridder is definitely in the MVP conversation. He's looking to build on that against a struggling Navy squad. To be completely honest, the Midshipmen have been awful. With a 1-5 record on the season, they are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games dating back to last season. Let's not forget in the last meeting against Cinci, Navy failed to even get on the board in the 42-0 loss (2018.) Expect the #2 team in the country to absolutely destroy this weak Navy team. The line might scare people off, but it won't be enough, I guarantee it. Take Cinci |
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10-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 2-11 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Braves (Fried, 1-0, 1.50) vs. Dodgers. Today’s play is an action play. Will it be third time lucky for Max Fried today? No one has been better than Fried lately. He has handled the Brewers and Dodgers successfully already and is operating on 5 days rest. He was 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 regular season starts. Fried is a lefty which is an advantage when facing the Dodgers lineup. In fact, the Braves starter lineup is in good shape for its next trio of starts should they be necessary. The same cannot be said for the Dodgers. It is likely Knebel will start, but another bullpen day is in store. Knebel was solid in the regular season, but struggled against the Braves in two relief appearances. A bullpen day would not be such a concern had the Dodgers pen not been so heavily used of late, to the tune of more than 5 innings per game. It is unclear who will make up the bulk of today’s innings, and the over-usage and overexposure of the Dodgers’ relievers plays into the Braves’ hands. I am sure the Dodgers 2020 comeback is fixed in the Braves players’ minds. They will look to finish the series today, even knowing they have several chances. Today is their best opportunity to finish the Dodgers. The Braves team, peaking late in the series seem composed. Th mighty Dodgers do not. They have lost Turner, who was the Dodgers best hitter vs Fried this year. They are at home and still a favorite, but I am banking on Atlanta to finish this one today. Take the Braves +1 1/2.. |
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10-19-21 | Warriors +5 v. Lakers | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 207 h 12 m | Show | |
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers These teams put together very different preseasons and I think their performances matter to open the season. Golden State went 5-0 and LA went 0-6. The Lakers have plenty of talent, but they'll be without the services of Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn and Talen Horton-Tucker. The Warriors will be without the services of Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. The preseason is not a good indicator of what will transpire in the regular season, but Golden State comes in with confidence and while it may struggle to post an outright upset, I do think this one will get decided in the final moments. Because of that, let's grab the points! The play is the Warriors. |
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10-18-21 | Bills -6 v. Titans | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Bills vs Titans Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league. Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air. This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys -4 v. Patriots | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
Cowboys vs Patriots The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone. New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6. The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover. |
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10-16-21 | Army +13 v. Wisconsin | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 133 h 5 m | Show | |
Army @ Wisconsin Army is 4-1 after losing to Ball State on the road by 12 points. I think the Black Knights can bounce back here though. Wisconsin enters at 2-3 after beating Illinois by 24 on the road. But despite stumbling last week, Army still averages 34.4 PPG. QB Christian Anderson has 431 rushing yrds and five touchdowns. The Badgers are coming off a shutout, but note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road shutout victory in which they scored 21 or more points in. QB Graham Mertz has 781 passing yards, but only two passing TD's. Wisconsin is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Badgers only average 19.6 PPG, while Army averages 20.8. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin pulling away. Grab the points, the play is Army. |
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10-16-21 | Liberty -32 v. UL-Monroe | 28-31 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
Liberty @ UL Monroe This is a complete mismatch no matter how you look at it. Liberty comes into this game with only the one loss (5-1) against Syracuse, but they are 17-2 in thier last 19 games dating back to last season. Louisiana Monroe is only 2-6 in their last 6 games played at home. The Flames have limited opponents to only 164.5 passing yards per game, while UL Monroe has given up 466 total yards per game. Take Liberty and expect it to be one of the biggest blowouts of the day |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Sd St @ Sj St Have you ever heard the story of David vs. Goliath? In that story, the underdog somehow manages to win against all odds. That's not going to be the case here today though in my opinion. SDSU is led by RB Greg Bell offensively. So far he has 94 rushes for 520 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with five TD's. I can't see SJSU mustering much off an offensive attack against SDSU, which concedes just 16.6 points per contest. The Spartans only allow 23.8 PPG, but their strength of schedule has to be questioned. This is one of the best offenses that SJSU has seen. And there's no question it's the best defense it's seen. Look for SDSU to pull away for a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch. ANNIHILATION on SDSU |
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10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | 28-22 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here. With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary. Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs. I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense. Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa. |
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10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Giants (Wood) vs Dodgers (Scherzer) After a pummeling in Game 2, the Giants face Max Scherzer on the road. Scherzer has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts of the regular season. In the wild card game, he lasted but 4 innings but still only gave up 1 run, although he was uncharacteristically wild. There is talk of a delivery issue in his mechanics being “solved”, and Scherzer is the consummate professional, so it is likely he will performwell today. Alex Wood starts for the Giants today. Confined by the Dodgers, his former team, to relief efforts in the post season last year, he will have something to prove. Since returning from Covid illness, Wood has been lights out, allowing only two runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. His arm should be well rested, and he was extremely effective in the postseason last year. Obviously these two teams are well matched. Both have very good bullpens, although the Giants’ was uncharacteristically poor in game 2. The Dodgers are a very good home team and have been dominant vs. left-handed pitchers. Home or away hasn’t much mattered to the Giants; they are equally effective in both situations. With Scherzer pitching, the Dodgers are a strong favorite, but is he completely right? I can't see the Giants, such a formidable team all year, rolling over here, and I am not convinced that Scherzer is completely right. Take the Giants + 1 1/2 today |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | 38-20 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.) KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver. The play is KC. |
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10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys -7 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Giants vs. Cowboys Daniel Jones and the Giants face the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys in their second straight road game. The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Dallas. Jones is coming off his best game of the season. His pass completion % is up considerably. In Week 4, he threw for 400 yds and 2 TDs. Jones has been turn-over prone, but hasn’t shown it thus far this season. Week 5 may be the game this changes. The Cowboys defense is 2nd in takeaways, and 1st in interceptions. The Giants aren’t healthy, and struggle against the pass and the run at the best of times. Pitted against a very balanced Cowboys’ offense will likely prove too much for the 1-3 Giants. Zak Prescott has had a stellar start, in full recovery from his ankle injury in week 5 of last year. This will be a bit of a hallmark game. This season, he has thrown 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. The Giants lead the league in 1st downs, and have a potent, two pronged running game as well. Dallas is 4-0 ATS this season. Oh, and when you hear about the “improved” Dallas defense, it isn’t THAT much better. They still are 2nd worst in passing yards allowed. It won’t be a blow out, but look for the Cowboys to cover again against the Giants. Dallas to win -7. |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
NY Jets vs Atlanta Falcons We're back in London in Week 5 with the Jets taking on the Falcons. Many thought the #2 overall pick in the Draft would be a difference maker, but Zach Wilson has been the exact opposite so far. In 4 starts, Wilson only has 925 passing yards with 4TDs thrown while turning the ball over 10 times (8INTs 2Fumbles.) Not only has he been bad, but the team is even worse. Dating back to last season they've only won 3 of thier last 20 games. That's miserable. Atlanta comes into this one 1-3 as well, but they've definitely shown some promise. Matty Ice has thrown 8TDs with 3INTs so far and the rest of the offense has been decent. Although they are still solid, the Falcons will be missing superstar WR Calvin Ridley in this one. Look for rookie Kyle Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus to have bigger roles in this one. Both teams are dealing with injuries and both teams aren't the best. I think this comes down to the two QB's here. Give me experience over an unconfident rookie anyday of the week. Take ATL |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend. The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin. Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern. The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend. I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground. Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5 Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2 | 26-17 | Loss | -101 | 73 h 44 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Coming off a huge loss against the Cardinals on Sunday, LA looks to rebound against the always dangerous Seahawks. In all honesty, the Rams did not look good at all last week. The offense didn't looked their stringest and the defense seemed not like themselves. The Seahawks are off a much needed victory against the Niners last week. Wilson didn't put up the most insane numbers, but he got the job done. This is also a revenge game for Seattle as these are the guys that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Look for Metcalf to be hungrier than ever to figure out how to beat Ramsey's seconday. With the Seahawks at home in primetime, I think the crowd is going to be the difference in this one. Expect a highly competitive game throughout the entire thing, but for Seattle and the 12th man to come out on top. Take the Seahawks. |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 52 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State Coastal Carolina is averaging 48.2 PP, which ranks second in the natoin. Its strength is its run game which ranks fifth in the nation. Arkansas State just gave up over 500 rushing yards in its last game. Arkansas State has scored 67 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 100. In fact Arkansas State currently ranks the second-worst in the FBS in allowing 45.6 PPG. Each team's numbers are a bit skewed because of the level of competition it's faced, but regardless, we have essentially the No. 1 offense in the nation, going up against the worst defense in the country. This one is going to get ugly fast and I simply don't see Grayson McCall and this stable of CC RB's taking the foot off the gas, even if they have a huge lead. The Red Wolves are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game, while CC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points, the play is Coastal Carolina. |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots I think perhaps one of the biggest public plays of the weekend will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, but I think that Mac Jones and New England will prove to be a tough opponent on Sunday night at home. Of course Brady wants to beat his old team badly, but his old team wants to beat him badly as well. Jones has struggled somewhat to begin the season, but he now faces a Bucs' defense which has for the most part struggled to contain teams this year. Brady struggled against the Rams aggressive pass rush last weekend and he'll now face a very similar attack here in his old stomping grounds as well. Other than the QB position, I say that New England likely has the better defense and special teams units, which makes these teams pretty much even in my books. Outright win? Sure, it's definitely possible. But why not grab up all these points?! New England Patriots is the play. |
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10-03-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Brewers (Anderson, 4-9, 4.26) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 15-4, 2.49) In their last game of the season, the Dodgers still can’t take their foot off the gas, and won’t know at game time what their fate will be. Buehler is on the mound, but I can’t see him go any longer than necessary. His September ERA has slipped to 5.40, and he has pitched more than 200 innings this year so fatigue may be a factor. Milwaukee is resting Peralta, and bringing in Anderson after just three days rest. Anderson is just three starts back from the IL, and has been lightly used but I can’t see him lasting long either. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been slightly worse than usual but still fine. The Brewers’ pen has been sub par of late, as has Milwaukee’s offense. The Brewers are likely in ‘don’t care ‘ mode at the moment . Yesterday’s game was a case in point. Burns lasted only 2 innings, and the Brewers turned the game over to recent pickup Colin Rea to finish. I like the Dodgers’ chances again today. The LA offense is hitting on all cylinders, the Brewers’ has been struggling. The Dodgers will be looking ahead but the Dodgers must stay focused. Take the Dodgers to win -1.5. |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC. The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida @ Kentucky Florida is good, but that loss to Bama could come back to haunt them later in the year. Although being 3-1 this season, the Gators are only 3-4 in thier last 7 games. CB Kaiir Elam will most likely play, but he might be bothered by his knee a bit this game. He's their only guy who's forced an INT this season so far. Many may consider this Kentucky team a joke, but they are 4-0 for a reason. With wins over Mizzouri and South Carolina, the Wildcats are looking like one of their strongest groups in a long time. Dating back to last year, they've now won 6 straight games. Florida is definitely the favorites and everyone expects them to blow UK out. But don't underestimate the Wildcats. I expect a close hard/rough game this Saturday. Give me Kentucky. |
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10-02-21 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -33.5 | Top | 6-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.) Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent. This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU. |
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10-02-21 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Georgia | 0-37 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Georgia Off a dominant win against the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend, the Razorbacks sure aren't getting the respect that they deserve yet. Being ranked #8 is a good spot for them. But +19 against a team that's ranked 6 spots ahead of them, C'mon. If you didn't watch last weekend, Arkansas absolutely crushed A&M. Georgia has been excellent don't get me wrong, but 19 points is way too much. The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries all over the place too. George Pickens, one of the best WRs in America is out (as we knew,) QB JT Daniels is still dealing with a back injury, big time LB Nolan Smith is probable, but he's been hurt with one of his legs, and big TE Darnaell Washington is Questionable with a foot injury. Both teams come in undefeated and only one will stay that way. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Razorbacks pulled this one off, but I'll gladly take them +19. |
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10-01-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Tulsa | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston @ Tulsa Houston is 3-1 and Tulsa is 1-3. Off a 41-34 win over Arkansas State last week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take a step back here. The Cougars are coming off a 28-20 home win over Navy. Clayton Tune had 257 yards and a TD. Davis Brin had 355 yards, three TD's and a pick in his team's win over the Red Wolves. Houston's only conceding 16.3 PPG this year, while Tualsa is allowing 30.5. The road team has covered in eight of the past nine meetings, so I'm grabbing the points and rolling with Houston in this one. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals -7.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
A pair of former #1 draft picks aside, my interest in this game is “Are the Bengals for real”. To start with, here is why the Jaguars are not. This is a team that has allowed 300+ passing yard per game and has led the league in turnovers. Outside of the hype, the Jags’ rookie quarterback is only three games into a pro career and it shows. A passing % of 54 and 7 interceptions does not cut it. In contrast, Joe Burrow has been more than steady with a 70+% pass completion rate, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Last week, the Bengals’ offensive line far outperformed the Steelers’. In terms of sacks, it was Bengals 4, Steelers 0. In week three, the Jags were leading into the third quarter. Lawrence burned one in the end zone and the Jaguars folded. It is rare for the Bengals to be a favorite AND in the limelight of TNF. I am looking for them to rise to the occasion this time. Take the Bengals to win and cover. |
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09-27-21 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 111 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Royals (Kowar, 0-4, 11.45) vs Indians (Quantrill, 7-3, 2.82) The Indians’ fine young starter, Cal Quantrill is on the mound on Monday. Quantrill has pitched for length and ERA of late, and beat KC in a 1 run, 7+ start just last week. While he might not need much support, Cleveland’s relievers have been most sharp, with an ERA of 1.32 ERA in their last seven games. The same cannot be said of the Royals’ starter, Jackson Kowar, who has struggled badly in his last three starts, as his ERA would suggest. KC’s bullpen, likely called out early, is only average of late with a 4.42 ERA. I like Quantrill and the Indians in this game and so do the odds. The big question is are they worth the extra runs. KC has struggled to score runs lately with 6 of their 7 last games going under. The potential for Kowar to give up multiple runs is high. The usually light-hitting Indians have been better of late, and Quantrill has been lights out. For those of us who are adventuresome, lets go out on a limb and take the Indians to win -1.5. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today. Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff. With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 105 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Woodford, 3-3, 3.92) vs. Cubs (Thompson, 3-3, 3.40) The Cards last lost on September 6. Their pitching is not a surprise but their surprising offense is first in the MLB. All streaks must end, but it is not likely today. Youngster Jake Woodford is on the mound. Since being stretched out as a starter he has had good success, and while his starts are only 4 or 5 innings, his ERA is 3.38 in September. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very sharp of late, to no-one’s surprise. Keegan Thompson is on the mound for the Cubs. He has only started a pair of time in each of August and September, and his starts have not lasted more than two innings. In his last 5+ innings, he has given up 7 runs. Thompson’s success aside, allowing the hard hitting Cards 7 innings access to the Cubs’ bullpen is not a recipe for success. The Cub’s relievers are heavily used and have a 7.67 collective ERA in their last 7 games. The total is tempting today but it is set very high. Take the Cardinals -1.5 today. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia +17 v. Oklahoma | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites. So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG. The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week. Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY |
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09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Pirates (Crowe, 4-7, 5.77) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-5, 1.60) The Phillies are 8-2 and will have to continue that at pace for any playoff hopes. They won against the Pirates on Friday and likely will again with Rangers Suarez on the mound. Lefty, Suarez has been as good as anyone since taking a starting role. He is very sharp at home and has only given up 5 runs in 17 innings in his last three starts. The Phillies’ bull pen, long a problem spot this season, has been sharp of late. Will Crowe’s last start was solid, but he has an ERA of 8.25 in three starts in September, so that one might have been an anomaly. His outings have been on the short side, and the Pirates’ pen has been heavily worked and below average of late. The Pirates are not a good road team nor do they fair well against left-handers. The Phillies are 6th in offense at the moment, and solid both at home and vs right-handers. Suarez is the much better pitcher. I like the Phillies in this game and so do the oddsmakers. Take the Phillies -1.5. |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Texas | 35-70 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Texas The Longhorns are 2-1, while the Red Raiders are undefeated. To say this is a "revenge" game though would be an understatement for the Red Raiders here, as they've lost three in a row in this series, including a 63-56 OT thriller last year. Texas Tech hasn't played the stiffest of competition yet, but it's passed all early tests easily. In the most recent win over FIU, QB Tyler Shough had 399 yards passing and four touchdowns. Texas is off a 58-0 win over Rice. The previous week the Longhorns loast 40-21 to Arkansas. Texas took out its frustrations on Rice and rolled up 620 yards of offense. The Longhorns though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after posting a shutout win in their previous outing. I think his Red Raiders' offense can hang with Texas late (like last year!) Grab the points 8* SHOWDOWN |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | 24-9 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Off back to back wins to open up the year, the Panthers are now one of the last 7 teams with an undefeated record. Having said that, they are battling some injuries. McCaffrey, who is going to play, is dealing with a minor calf injrury. Youngsters, Yetor Gross Matos and Troy Pride are going to miss this one though. Off a loss to the Browns, the Texans also saw their QB Tyrod Taylor get hurt. Now, the rookie Davis Mills steps in the starting role and looks to prove himself. They looked very sharp in week 1 and I believe that they'll bounce back in a huge way this week. Although Carolina is the better team, 8.5 points is a lot, considering Houston is the home team. I'll gladly take the points here. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 3 m | Show | |
Marshall @ Appalachian State Off a tough loss to Eastern Carolina last weekend, Marshall now travels to North Carolina where they'll take on the always dangerous Mountaineers. Although they are 2-1, the Thundering Hurd are 1-2 ATS on the season, 1-4 dating back to last year. They've also lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. For Appalachian State, they've looked very sharp, despite losing a tough one to Miami. They are now a dominant 19-1 in thier last 20 games played at home. They are aksi 8-1 in their last 9 games against opponents from the Conference USA. Having said that, I think Marshall will be very shy/unconfident after that shocking loss last week. Expect the Mountaineers to jump all over that and make them pay. Take App State. |
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09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Orioles (Akin, 2-10, 6.93) vs Phillies (Wheeler, 14-9, 2.83) Just 2 games back of the Braves for top spot in their division, the Phillies need to take this series vs Baltimore to stay in the running. Their ace, Zack Wheeler is on the mound on Wednesday. Wheeler had a rough month in August, but it was probably fatigue. He has already pitched 200+ innings and had very long starts. In September, his starts seem to have been limited to around 6 innings and he has returned to form, allowing only 2 runs in three outings. Keegan Akin has had a dismal season and is worse on the road. He did pitch 6 scoreless innings against the Jays, only to be smacked around in the 7th. Otherwise, his latest starts have been short and poor. Both bullpens have been poor and overused, but the Orioles’ is most likely to have more work with Akin on the mound. It is hard to find a positive stat for the Orioles. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and 25-52 away. They are 26-51 vs. right-handed pitching. The Phillies’ bats are very solid lately. They can struggle vs lefties but are better lately in this regard. With Wheeler on the mound, they are a huge favorite, but are worth the extra runs in this game. Take the Phillies -1.5. |
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09-21-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Angels | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Astros (Urquidy, 7-3, 3.38) vs Angels (Naughton, 0-2, 4.32) Astros starter Jose Urquidy seems to have returned from a long stint on the IL unscathed. In is his third start back, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings. This bodes well for the play-off bound Astros. The Angels are not going to the playoffs and their young starter is hardly a household name. In three starts since a call-up, Packy Naughton has had 1 premium outing sandwiched by a couple of short poor ones. The Astros’ bats are very sharp right now so I don’t fancy his chances. The Angels’ bullpen has been effective lately. Their issue at the moment is scoring runs; they are in the bottom 10% in MLB offense. The Angels have had little luck against Urquidy this season, and are 46-54 against righties. The Astros offense is ticking over just fine, thank you very much. Their bullpen has been extra sharp of late with an ERA of 1.87 in their last 7 games. The A’s and Mariners are just close enough to keep them honest. It is no surprise that I favor the Astros or that they are a heavy favorite. Take the extra runs today. Astros to win -1.5. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0. The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time. These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing. I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. |
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09-19-21 | Falcons v. Bucs -12.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Bucs Both teams have veteran quarterbacks. That's where the similarities stop. The Buccaneers are stacked. The Falcons are not. Tampa scored 31 against Dallas. Atlanta allowed 32 against Philadelphia. The Buccaneers limited Elliott and the Dallas running game in the opener. They're 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were off a game where they allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards. The Super Bowl champs play with some extra rest, due to their game having been played on a Thursday. The Falcons fell to 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight September games. Last meeting was a 17-point Tampa win. Take the Bucs |
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -6 | 26-17 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field. For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late. Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT. |
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09-18-21 | White Sox -1.5 v. Rangers | 1-2 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.50) vs Rangers (Howard, 0-4, 7.09) It is out of the MLB frying pan and into the fire for the Rangers, losing 3 of 4 to the Astros, before facing the White Sox in Chicago. The Sox haven’t been their usual first-place selves of late at only 5-5, but they do have Lance Lynn on the mound on Saturday. Lynn missed a start, but came back just as ever, pitching five strong innings of 2 hit shut-out ball. He might be on a shorter leash as innings-count goes. He is backed by a very strong White Sox pen, with a 2.01 ERA in the last three weeks. Spenser Howard, the Rangers starter, is more of an opener/long relief pitcher, whether by plan or ineffectiveness. He has not had much of a season, as his ERA might suggest, and his outings are very short. It could be a long day for the Texas bullpen. The Rangers relievers are worse than usual in their last 7 games, at a collective 4.81 ERA. Texas has been light-hitting all season and at the moment, sits 26th in batting in MLB. They are 32 -40 at home and a remarkably poor 30-61 versus right-handers. This does not bode well against Lance Lynn. The White Sox are a decent road team, good vs right-handers, hitting just about as expected, and a very strong road favorite team. I like the White Sox in this situation. The are a heavy favorite but I think they are worth the extra runs today. Take the White Sox -1.5. |
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09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Arakansas State @ Washington Off a heartbreaking loss in Week 2 against Memphis, Arkansas St falls to 1-1. That makes them only 2-6 in their last 8 games dating back to last season. Even worse, they are only 1-7 L8 games played on the road. The Huskies have not looked good this season either. It's obvious that they are struggling. But, they've domianted the Sun Belt Conference in the past and I expect that to continue here. They are also 16-4 in their last 20 games played at home. While this will be a wet/rainy game in Washington, I believe that the bigger name school will show the country that they aren't the joke everyone thinks they are here. Also, look for TE Cade Otton to have a big game here. Take Washington. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 11 m | Show | |
Maryland @ Illinois After upsetting Nebraska out of the gate, it seemed Illinois might be poised for a fast start. The Fighting Illini lost their next two games though. This is a team with a new coach essentially in a rebuilding year. The Illini are 1-5 ATS their last six games. The Terrapins beat West Virginia and then won their next game by a score of 62-0. No rebuilding for them. Their coach is in his third year here and they've got big plans for the season. In the only previous meeting, the Terrapins outgained Illinois by a 712-493 margin, crushing them 63-33. The Terrapins ran for more than 400 yards. That was in 2018 but 2021 looks like another big win. Lay the points with Maryland. |
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