For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-06-18 | East Carolina v. Temple -10.5 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an AAC conference battle from Lincoln Financial Field. ECU comes in off a thrilling 37-35 win over ODU last weekend and I think it’ll have a predictable “letdown” here after moving to .500 with that victory. Temple on the other hand will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after battling hard and com in yup short in a loss at Boston College last weekend. The teams: Reid Herring suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over ODU, but the QB isn’t expected to miss anytime. He’s only competed 54 percent of his passes and he owns a weak 6:5 TD/INT ratio. Overall ECU averages 28.5 PPG. The Owls are not having any issues scoring points, posting at least 31 in their last three games. Last week they came up short in a 45-35 setback at Boston College though. Ryquell Armstead had 171 yards on 24 carries with four TD’s and I have a hard time seeing this suspect Pirates defensive line slowing down the red hot RB. The pick: The Owls’ defense catches a break this week. Look for Temple to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the Pirates to stumble after its big win last weekend. Lay the points. |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose lost 5-2 to Anaheim on Opening Night, an uncharacteristically poor start from goaltender Martin Jones. But I think we’ll see San Jose play a much tighter and more disciplined game here. LA opens its season tonight, looking to get back to the playoffs after getting bounced by Las Vegas in the first round. The teams: San Jose’s Jones will look to bounce back here and he has to be feeling confident as he’s 9-5 with a 2.06 GAA lifetime against the Kings. He’s also 59-50 with a 2.45 GAA lifetime away from friendly confines. LA counters with Jonathan Quick, who finished 33-31 with a 2.40 GAA last year and who is 15-16 with a 2.52 GAA lifetime against the Sharks. The pick: San Jose played terrible defense in its opener, but as I stated off the top, I think the team returns to form here. The stage is set for a classic goaltenders duel on Friday night. Play the “under.”
|
|||||||
10-05-18 | Utah State +2.5 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the “revenge” factor working in its favor today, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game. The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT’s in the last two games.) Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.) The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they’re also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don’t be surprised by an outright upset! |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Georgia Tech -4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals are in a “free fall” right now, losers of two straight, most recently against Virginia and FSU. Georgia Tech is just 1-3, but it comes in with some momentum after beating Bowling Green this past weekend. The teams: Georgia Tech is 3-2 in its last five in having to play on a short week. QB TaQuon Marshall has rushed for at least one TD in all five games this year. So far in total he has seven rushing and two passing TD’s. The Yellow Jackets most recently steamrolled Bowling Green 63-17 this past Saturday and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Tobias Oliver was another standout with 115 yards rushing and two TD’s. Louisville is struggling to find its No. 1 QB still, as head coach Bobby Petrino has been switching between Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass. Pass would play the entire game last week in the loss to the Seminoles, going 24 of 45 for 306 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. He also fumbled the ball three times. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 when playing with six or less days rest and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in Weeks 5 through 9, while Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight October games and only 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Look for the Georgia Tech up-tempo offense to prove be too much for the Cardinals to keep up to. Lay the points. |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin. The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year. Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Indians +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -165 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Each club sends its ace to the mound. The Tribe hand the ball to Corey Kluber, well the defending champs go with Justin Verlander. I think Verlander and the Astros will find a way to get the job done here. The teams: Kluber went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He’s had plenty of success on the road (9-4) this season and against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 6-3 record. Verlander hasn’t fared as well against the Tribe though, holding a 20-24, 4.71 ERA over 52 career starts. This season though he’d finish with a 16-9 record to go along with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The pick: Also note that over 22 career postseason appearances, Verlander owns a sharp 3.07 ERA. His counterpart though can’t say the same thing, as last year in the playoffs Kluber was rocked for nine runs off ten hits over two starts vs. the Bronx Bombers. Verlander was 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 36.2 innings in the 2017 playoffs. Also note that the Astros bullpen led the entire league this year with a 3.03 ERA, while the Indians were ranked 25th with a poor 4.60 ERA. Lay the price. |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s Game 1 of the NLDS on Thursday from Chavez Ravine. Atlanta goes with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu. I’m predicting no upsets here on Thursday night. The teams: Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 183 innings. In his only start against the Dodgers this year though he looked bad, giving up four runs (including two dingers), over five innings in a 4-1 loss. In fact, over 11.1 career innings Foltynewicz has given up seven runs against LA. Over 15 starts Ryu posted a 7-3 records along with a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Ryu has dominated the Braves throughout his career, holding them to six runs over 18.1 innings (2.95 ERA.) The pick: Ryu has done well in three playoff starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1-0 record over 16 innings. In contrast, this will be Foltynewic’s first playoff start ever. Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 4-1 in its last five home starts by Ryu, while the Braves are just 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last five starts against teams with winning records. Lay the price, expect a rout. |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Colts +10.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015. The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51. The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points. |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa enter off a listless 31-17 loss to Temple on the road last time out, so a well rested and high-powered Houston Cougars team will look to take advantage. The home side comes in off its bye, but previous tot that it destroyed Texas Southern 70-14. The teams: The Golden Hurricane average 24 PPG and they allow 28.8. QB Like Skipper has four TD’s and six INT’s, while RB Shamari Brooks is a bright spot with 375 yards rushing and four TD’s. Houston is averaging 52.2 PPG and it’s conceding 30.5. Defense is the weak point, but the unit catches a break today facing Tulsa’s impotent offense. QB D’Eriq King so far has 1,197 yards passing with 15 TD’s, one INT, to go along with 107 rushing yards and five more TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a losing road record, while Tulsa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. When these teams played last year it was Houston that pulled away for the simple 45-17 road victory. Now that the Cougars are playing at home, I’m expecting an even bigger rout. Lay the points. |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -145 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington plays at home against Boston in a tough game on Wednesday night. The Penguins were eliminated by the Capitals in the playoffs last year and they’ll look to take advantage of this favorable spot. The pick: It’s the beginning of the season and because of that, I’ll base my selections on the overall “situation” most often. And there’s no doubt that this one sets up beautifully for Sidney Crosby and the home side. Take it for what you will as well by the Pens are 8-2 in their last ten home games vs. an Eastern Conference team as a favorite in the -140 to -180 range. Play on Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Bruins v. Sabres +120 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the start of the season, so I mainly base my picks on the overall “situation.” I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home side on the “puck line.” Boston plays the second game of a back-to-back here after contending with the defending champs on Opening Night. The pick: The Sabres were bad last year, but they made significant improvement over the previous season. The team should once again make strides this year as well. Buffalo was much better at home than on the road and in a contest which I envision ending late or even in extra time, I’m going to recommend the home team. |
|||||||
10-03-18 | Ducks v. Sharks -165 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
10-03-18 | Flames v. Canucks +113 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 113 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a pair of teams from the Pacific Division squaring off in Vancouver on Opening Night. Neither team played well last year. Vancouver lost the Sedin twins over the Summer and while that’s definitely a good thing for the team in the long-term, in the short-term it erases 33% of their points getters from last year. Calgary returns its main core of players. The Flames achilles heel over the last decade though and certainly last season was their play on the road, and I think the team will stumble here against Vancouver’s young and hungry group. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Flames are just 25-37 (-17.7 units) against the division the last three years, while Vancouver is 4-1 in its last five as a home dog in the +105 to +125 range. I’m banking on the Canucks finding a way to get the job done on Opening Night at home. |
|||||||
10-03-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -215 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a pair of teams from the Atlantic division squaring off here. Montreal was a disaster last season and I think it’s in well over its head here. The Leafs are now stacked from front to back and I look for them to make an example of the Habs on Opening Night. The teams: Montreal missed the postseason for a second straight year last year and all signs point to another mess in 2018/19. Shea Weber is out till X-Mas, but the team does have some talent in Max Domi, Tomas Plekanec and Tomas Tatar. Carey Price is back in net and he was 16-26-7 with a 3.00 GAA last year. Toronto made it to the playoffs for a second year in a row last year and it scored the most points in franchise history last year with a 105. The team kept it’s core, but then went an added offensive standout John Tavares from the Islanders as well over the off-season. Goaltender Frederik Anderson was 21-5-5 with a 2.81 GAA last season. The pick: Toronto outscored Montreal 14-2 in the final three meetings last year. The Habs have their work cut out for them here. Take it for what you will as well, but the Leafs are 23-8 in their last 31 at home, while Montreal is just 9-27 in its last 36 against the Eastern Conference. I have no problems laying this larger price.
|
|||||||
10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams had a chance yesterday in their divisional tie-breakers, but each came up short. Colorado lost 5-2 to the Dodgers and it now flies across the country to face the Cubs, who lost 3-1 to the Brewers. The winner of this Wild Card contest will fly to Milwaukee for the NLDS. Both teams struggled to plate runs yesterday and I think that’ll be the case again here as well. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Freeland finished the regular season 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. He went 5-0 in September and he’s 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts since the Mid-Summer Classic. He’s 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA lifetime against Chicago, but that was then and this is now. Lester finished the reg. season 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA. He has won his past three starts and four of his five in September overall. In five career starts against the Rockies he’s 1-3 with a sharp 2.25 ERA.
The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done. |
|||||||
10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover. The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.) The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City. |
|||||||
10-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: LA is looking to win a sixth consecutive NL West title, but to do that it’s going to have to knock off the Rockies in the Wild Card. The visitors hand the ball to the competent German Marquez, and the home side goes with the competent Walker Buehler. The pitchers: Marquez finished the regular season 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA. He threw well against LA this year, posting a 2.57 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 21 frames of work. Marquez has been better on the road than at home, but note that no matter where he’s been, he’s been poor in all “day” games, coming in with the sub-par 4-6, 5.16 ERA record. Buehler finished 7-5 with a 2.56 ERA. Since July 31st he’s posted a tiny 1.70 ERA over 11 starts (one of which included a 12 strikeout game against these very Rockies!) Over five starts this year against Colorado Buehler comes in with the elite 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP record. The pick: I don’t think that friendly confines can be overlooked as a deciding factor here, as note that LA is 7-2 in its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Play on the Dodgers.
|
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here. The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight. Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-30-18 | 49ers v. Chargers -10 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish. The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury. LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well. The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -140 | 72 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second. The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.) New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall). The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case! |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston enters off a 27-22 home loss to the Giants, while Indianapolis returns home after a 20-16 loss to the Eagles. Note that the Colts took both meetings from the Texans last year. And that was without Andrew Luck. The teams: While the Texans rank eighth in the NFL in YPG with an average of 396.3, that production has not translated into much scoring so far. Houston is essentially already out of playoff contention after starting the year 0-3. QB DeShaun Watson has a 5:3 TD/INT. Last week the defense surrendered 379 total yards. The Texans average 19.7 points and they allow 24.7. Indianapolis is averaging 20 PPG and it’s allowing 21. Luck has 662 passing yards and a 5:3 TD/INT. TY Hilton so far has 179 receiving yards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against clubs with losing records. With a chance to stick a final nail in the Texans coffin, I look for Luck and the home side to find a way to get the job done here.
|
|||||||
09-30-18 | Bills +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a commanding 27-6 road win over Minnesota last week and I think it’ll carry that confidence and momentum over here. Green Bay comes in dejected after it’s 31-17 road loss to Washington. The teams: Buffalo is averaging 16.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. Those numbers are a bit skewed though I think after two really horrible games to open the season. With QB Josh Allen finally getting comfortable, clearly the Bills looked a lot better last week. Allen was 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and he also added two more rushing TD’s. The defense also rebounded in a big way and it’ll have some opportunities to make some plays today too I think. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 265 passing yards with two TD’s. He played with a brace on his knee and he was seen many times hobbling around. The run game mustered a paltry 87 yards. overall the Pack is averaging 23.3 PPG and it’s allowing 27.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing less than 15 points in its previous contest. I’ll even recommend “sprinkling a little” on the money line. That said, grab the points! |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Oregon -2.5 v. California | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Cal comes in a tiny bit complacent here after three straight victories over UNC, BYU and Idaho State. Oregon on the other hand is looking to bounce back after falling 38-31 in OT at home to Stanford this past weekend. The teams: The Ducks led 31-28 with 51 second last week, but they weren’t able to hold on for the victory. It was an unfortunate series of events that led to the setback, but with that awkwardness out of the way, I’m expecting a return to form here. Cal has so far looked pretty good defensively in not allowing more than 23 points in any game this year, but clearly it faces its stiffest test yet in Oregon’s high-flying offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon if 4-2 ATS i its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Cal is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-29-18 | Diamondbacks -128 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Zack Godley and the hard-hitting visiting side offer great value in this matchup. The home side sends Jacob Nix to the hill. The pitchers: Godley is so far 14-11 with a 4.75 ERA. He’s had an up and down season, but after a shaky first half, he’s looked a lot better in the second. Note that he’s 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA in all night games. Nix is so far 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers on Sunday, but overall he’s been a disaster (especially in all “night” games with a 2-3, 6.04 ERA) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 2-7 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the -150 to -225 range. Lay the price, play on Arizona. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20. The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season. Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Rice +27 v. Wake Forest | Top | 24-56 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +17.5 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Cincinnati comes in complacent here at 3-0 and facing the lowly Huskies. UConn is just 1-3 following a setback against Syracuse last week but I expect it to keep this one competitive. The teams: Cincinnati comes in off an emotional come-from-behind win over Ohio last week, with QB Desmond Ridder going 19 of 29 for 274 yards and two TD’s. The Ground game is averaging 235.2 YPG so far. Connecticut ranks last in the FBS on defense, allowing 54.5 YPG. It’s difficult to say too many positive things about this team, as for the most part it’s struggled. It’s looked decent offensively though and I think it’ll have its opportunities again today against this disinterested Bearcats side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Cincinnati is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while UConn is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against a team with a winning record. No outright, but a tight battle. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Liverpool v. Chelsea | Top | 1-1 | Win | 257 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Liverpool is 6-0 in EPL action after getting the better of Southampton 3-0 last weekend. But Chelsea beat Liverpool 2-1 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. The Blues won’t be going down without a fight today and I think it’ll end up in a “draw” once it’s all said and done. Chelsea’s five game win streak came to an end in a goalless draw with West Ham last Sunday. The pick: Chelsea has only lost twice to Liverpool in its last 15 in the series (W6, D7, L2). Note that four of the last seven between these two have ended in draws. Everything points to another tight battle between these familiar clubs. Play on the “draw.” |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Bowling Green +28.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-63 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia Tech is a massive favorite, but it’s still searching for its first victory of the year after falling 49-21 to No. 3 Clemson. Bowling Green is also looking to bounce back after falling 38-23 to Miami Ohio. The teams: Bowling Green QB Jarret Doege had 237 yards and two TD’s last week and he so far has a solid 10:4 TD/INT ratio. The defense actually took a step forward last week, allowing just 408 total yards. Georgia Tech is averaging just 29.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30.5. Senior QB TaQuon Marshall has 382 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. Grab as many points as you can.
|
|||||||
09-28-18 | Diamondbacks -145 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think the talent gap on the hill tonight makes Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side well worth the price of admission. The home side goes with rookie Eric Lauer. The pitchers: Corbin is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He comes in on top form, despite taking a loss against the Cubs in his last start, giving up three runs over six innings while striking out seven. The crafty southpaw hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since late July and to go along with his very respectable ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHiP to go along with a whopping 237 K’s. Lauer is so far 6-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Lauer has struggled to pitch deep into games and note that he’s just 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 13-8 in its last 23 National League night road games as a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. I expect Corbin to come in razor focused. Lay the price. |
|||||||
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 16-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA is horrible, it’s 0-3 for the first time since 1971 following last week’s 38-14 home loss to Fresno State last Saturday. The team suffered more bad new with backup QB Devon Modster announced this week that he’s transferring. Colorado looks to deliver the knock out blow at home and improve to 4-0. The teams: UCLA has given up more than 400 yards of offense in every game this year, while averaging just 320. 13 of the team’s 41 Blue Chip recruits have left the team after Jim Mora was replaced by Jim Kelly at coach. Buffalo QB Steven Montez has 855 passing yards, eight TD’s and two picks so far this season. Last week the Buffs had 311 yards of rushing in a 45-14 destruction of New Hampshire. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of mor ethan 20 points, while UCLA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference game sand just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. I don’t think the Bruins respond here at all. In fact, I as mentioned off the top, I look for the Buffs to kick this team while it’s down. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-28-18 | Memphis -13.5 v. Tulane | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important early season AAC battle for Memphis, who will look to move to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in league action after beating South Alabama 52-35 on Saturday. Tulane enters off a humbling 49-6 loss to Ohio State last week. The Green Wave play with revenge today, but they’ve played with revenge ten other times in a row and come up empty each time. Memphis has indeed won 11 straight in this series, including a convincing 56-26 home win last year. The teams: Memphis RB Darrell Henderson had 188 yards and two TD’s last week and he now has 709 rushing yards and nine TD’s. QB Brady White had 292 passing yards and two TD’s as well and he already has 1,064 passing yards with 12 TD’s and just one pick. The defense struggled some last week, but overall it’s allowing just 317.2 YPG, which is ranked 24th in the country. The Green Wave posted just 263 total yards last week and allowed 570. That was against Ohio State, but the team faces another difficult task against the Tigers this week as well. The pick: Tulane QB Jonathan Banks has completed just 49.5 percent of his passes. The Green wave are just 4-5 ATS in their last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses as well. Additionally note that Memphis 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I’m banking on the “better” team pulling away down the stretch. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful. The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially. The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week. The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Williams is so far 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings against the hard-hitting Brewers and he’s now given up two or fewer runs in 11 of his last 12 trips to the hill. Note as well that he’s 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road. Lester is so far 17-6 with a 3.44 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Saturday and he’ll now look to close out the season on a high note. Note that he’s 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League night home games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-27-18 | North Carolina +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The UNC Tar Heels hit the road to take on the No. 16 Miami Hurricanes and while I’m not predicting an outright upset, I do think the visitors are going to keep this one competitive late. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Hurricanes took the 24-19 victory in Chapel Hill last October. The teams: UNC enters off a 38-35 win over Pitt in its conference opener at home on Saturday. The Tar Heels are averaging 24.7 points and allowing 33.3. QB Nathan Elliot has 669 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s. Miami comes in off a 31-17 win over Florida International. FIU scored its 17 points in garbage time in the fourth quarter, but regardless, the Hurricanes clearly took the foot off the gas in that one and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here as well. Miami is averaging 43.5 PPG and it’s allowing just 18.5. QB Malik Rosier as 611 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNC is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Miami is just 7-8 ATS inits last 15 at home and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 against the conference. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|
|||||||
09-27-18 | Braves v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. the visitors go with Ross Stripling on the hill, while the home side goes with Zack Greinke. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Cards on Sunday, but overall the right-hander has been great this year. Note that he has a sharp 1.14 WHIP over 117 innings and he’s been great in all “night” games with a 2.44 ERA. Greinke is so far 14-11 with a 3.21 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been fantastic at home, coming in with a sharp 6-4, 2.42 ERA in friendly confines. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night road games when the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Tigers v. Twins -135 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither of these starters has looked great this season. Each came in with a ton of promise, but each has struggled with consistency. That said, I absolutely feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 9-12 with a 4.16 ERA. Boyd has admittedly been decent of late, but overall the southpaw has been consistently inconsistent (especially on the road where he’s just 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA). Odorizzi is so far 7-10 with a 4.35 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday and he has to be feeling confident here, sporting a respectable 1.33 WHP and 154:63 K/BB over 153.2 innings of work. The pick: Odorizzi is 5-4 with a 4.10 ERA at home and take it for what you will as well, but the Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 American League night home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the price, play on the Twins. |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Wei-Yin Chen has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s been terrible on the road. The Nationals made an over night pitching change, shelving Roark and going with Kyle McGowin. I think runs will be plentiful here. The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-11 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 1.62 ERA at home and 1-8 with a 9.29 ERA on the road. McGowin is so far 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA. He was amazing at the Triple-A level, but he was blown up in his first appearance in the big leagues. He draws a more favorable opponent tonight, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -128 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. That said, I do definitely think that Mike Montgomery and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with the erratic Chris Archer. The pitchers: Archer is so far 5-8 with a 4.49 ERA. He comes in off a decent start against the lowly Royals, but overall he’s been poor for his new club with a 5.19 ERA. Archer has been especially pedestrian on the road as well with a 4-6, 4.91 ERA. Montgomery is so far 5-5 with a 3.75 ERA. The southpaw looks to close out the season strong in front of the home town crowd, note that he owns a sharp 3.12 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pirates are just 2-7 in their last nine National League road night games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. Lay the price and expect a rout.
|
|||||||
09-24-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who are likely happy to see the season coming to an end collide in this one. I think runs are going to be plentiful, as the visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell, while the home side goes with Derek Holland. The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA. He fell to the Giants at home on Tuesday and he can’t be feeling too confident here either, as note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games this season. Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.57 ERA. The ten year veteran has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Two suspect starters here. I think these normally lighter-hitting line-ups take advantage. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Monday night and I think points are going to be plentiful. Tampa is 2-0 to open the year with wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia, while Pittsburgh comes in desperate at 0-1-1, with a tie against the Browns, followed by a loss to the Chiefs. The teams: Pittsburgh’s defense is in shambles after allowing 21 points to Cleveland (14 of which came in the fourth quarter), along with 42 to Kansas City. KC posted 326 passing yards and Pat Mahomes had six TD’s. Mahomes was sacked just once and the Steelers defense has just two total turnovers over the first two weeks. While Ben Roethlisberger is down some offensive weapons, he’ll clearly be given the green light today to air the ball out. Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to take immediate advantage of the Steelers’ porous defense, so far he’s completed 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight TD’s and one INT over the first two games. DeSean Jackson had five catches and 146 yards with two TD’s in the win over the Saints. The pick: Pittsburgh’s offense is going to have to put some points on the board today, because it knows that its defense isn’t going to stop anyone. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout. Play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels. The pitchers: Taillon is so far 13-9 with a 3.24 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and gave up four hits over seven scoreless frames in a victory over Kansas City on Tuesday. Note that he’s 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA on the road. Hamels is so far 9-10 with a 3.90 ERA. He’s been exceptional overall for his new team and he’ll now look to close strong. Note that he’s a “lights out” 9-4 with a 2.76 ERA in all “night” games this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League road night games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots -6 v. Lions | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is desperate for a win at 0-2, but the Patriots are coming off a humbling 31-20 road loss in Jacksonville and they’ll be eager to deliver the knock-out blow to the Lions here. The teams: NE QB Tom Brady had 234 passing yards and two TD’s last week, but it wasn’t enough as his defense would uncharacteristically struggle. Brady has 511 yards and a 5/1 TD:INT after two weeks. So far the Pats are averaging 23.5 PPG and allowing 25.5. Detroit is averaging 22 PPG and it’s allowing 39 PPG. That’s dead last in the NFL. Last week it allowed 190 rushing to Matt Breida of the 49ers. The pass defense was decent, but No. 1 CB Darius Slay went down with a concussion last week. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NE is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Detroit is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Lions’ terrible defensive play is just what the doctor ordered for Brady to get back on track. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chargers rallied for a 31-20 road win in Buffalo last Sunday, while the Rams smashed the Cardinals 34-0. The teams: The Chargers got back on track defensively and into the win column against an inept Bills team, but in Week 1 against the Chiefs they looked horrible. On both sides of the ball. And now the Bolts face last year’s No. 1 offense. So far the Chargers are averaging 29.5 PPG and allowing 29. The Rams are averaging 33.5 PPG and allowing 6.5. That’s No. 1 in the league. Jared Goff and Gurley form a difficult “one, two-punch.” LA was able to rest many of its starters in last week’s blowout victory. The pick: This game features a couple of great running backs and two dynamic QB’s. But the Rams have the far superior defense and special teams. They also have the home field advantage. This is a statement game for the Rams and I look for them put on a show. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Anibal Sanchez. The pitchers: Nola is so far 16-5 with a 2.44 ERA. He’s been scuffling a bit (for his standards anyways) over the last month, but the right-hander has to be feeling confident here as note that he’s 7-3 with a 2.27 ERA on the road. Sanchez is so far 6-6 with a 3.01 ERA. His career ERA is 4.02 and his career WHIP is 1.31, so this year’s 3.01 and 1.12 are massive improvements. Note as well that he owns a tiny 1.96 ERA in all “day” games this year. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis comes in off a 21-9 road win over Washington and I think it’ll be able to keep this one competitive as well against an Eagles team which comes in off a 27-21 loss to Tampa Bay. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 179 passing yards, two TD’s and two INT’s last week. TY Hilton had seven catches for 83 yards. So far the Colts are averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 21.5. Last week the defense was especially sharp in not allowing a TD. The Eagles are averaging 19.5 PPG and they’re also allowing 19.5. QB Carson Wentz makes his debut (finally), but clearly the pivot is going to have to go through some “growing pains” before obtaining his previous form. Philadelphia looked horrible against the pass last week, giving up 402 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while Philadelphia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think Luck keeps this one close. Grab the points.
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last week, but I think points will be at more of a premium in this one. Cincinnati beat Baltimore 34-23, while Carolina fell 31-24 in Atlanta. The teams: So far the Bengals are averaging 34 PPG and allowing 23. The rush defense has been fantastic, ranked fourth overall, so that definitely negates a major strength/focus of the Panthers today. Carolina is averaging 20 PPG and allowing 19.5. The Panthers gave up 442 yards last week, so they’ll be out to atone today in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four as a road dog of three point or less, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven as a favorite. The conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring “under.”
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offenses and very little defensive play. While that is in fact true most weeks, I think these two division rivals will play to more of a lower-scoring affair in Week 3. The teams: The Saints had less than 300 yards offense in the win over the Browns. The offense had 475 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Bucs. Overall though New Orleans can’t be happy with where it sits on either side of the ball. Last year the Saints made big strides because of improved defensive play and the team will have to continue that trend this season if it hopes to once again make a serious playoff run. After coming up short on three occasions in the red zone in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, the Falcons went four-for-four last week. Overall Atlanta can’t be feeling too bad at this point at where it sits, especially from a defensive stand-point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “under” the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Atlanta has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 off a divisional contest (and in six of its last nine off a win against a division rival.) This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Broncos +5.5 v. Ravens | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore comes in deflated off a road loss in Cincinnati, while the Broncos come in “under the radar” at 2-0. Denver plays its first road game of the season and I think the defensive minded Broncos will keep this one interesting. The teams: Broncos’ RB Phillip Lindsay has posted back-to-back 100 yards games, becoming the first undrafted player in league history to do so. He had a 53 yard run in his team’s 20-19 victory over the Raiders last week. Look for QB Case Keenum to take advantage of a Ravens’ secondary which will be without CB Jimmy Smith (suspension.) Baltimore is allowing almost 170 yards through the air. The Broncos held Oakland to just 92 rushing yards, but gave up 288 passing yards and a TD through the air. Baltimore gave up four sacks in the loss to the Bengals last week. The Ravens are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on offense, which is third-worst in the NFL. Joe Flacco has been serviceable, but the QB match-up today is definitely a “wash” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think Denver’s defense is a difference maker in this one. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|
|||||||
09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -6 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -102 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This is going to be a war. New York is 0-2 and Houston is 0-2. The Giants fell 20-13 to the Cowboys last week, while the Texans lost 20-17 to Tennessee. The teams: Giants’ QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards, but he was also sacked six times. So far Manning has 503 passing yards with one TD and one INT. RB Saquon Barkley was shut down, finishing with just 28 yards on 11 carries last week. Overall the Giants are averaging just 14 PPG. The defense has been a bright spot, allowing 20 PPG so far. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson has looked a lot better than his counterpart in the early going, last week he had 310 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. Overall he has 486 passing yards and a 3/2 TD:INT. Lamar Miller was a bright spot last week as well with 68 yards on 14 carries. The Texans only scored 17 points last week, but the unit did produce 437 total yards. The pick: Houston’s offensive yardage production so far hasn’t led to a lot of points, but I expect that trend to start normalizing itself here. The Giants have been decent defensively, but I think the unit takes a step back this week in this difficult road venue. Look for Watson to finally have his break out game and lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-22-18 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 44 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
09-22-18 | NC State -5 v. Marshall | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: NC State comes in fresh here as its Week 3 matchup against No. 12 ranked WVU was postponed due to the Hurricane. So far the Wolfpack are 2-0 with victories over Georgia State and James Madison. Marshall’s Week 3 contest was also cancelled with South Carolina. It’s also 2-0 with wins over Miami and Eastern Kentucky. The teams: NC State QB Finley has over 6,500 yards and 35 TD’s the past two seasons and he has over 300 yards passing in each of the first two games this year. The offense gets a big boost this week as well with the addition of former Trojan TE Cary Angeline, who was a four-star recruit and who is expected to play a big part in the offense right away. Marshall QB Isaiah Green has 550 yards over his first two games. Tyre Brady caught 11 passes for 248 yards in a losing cause to NC State last year and I think he’s going to come up short this season as well. The pick: As note that the Herd are just 3-10 in their last 13 against teams from Power Five conferences. Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 90 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Of course not. But I think Miami Florida comes in distracted enough to let lowly FIU sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The teams: FIU destroyed UMass 63-24 last weekend, as QB James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Shawndarrius Phillips had 117 rushing yards. Overall Morgan has six TD’s and three INT’s. Clearly this is a huge step up in competition, but after two straight wins, the Panthers won’t just be rolling over here today. Miami Florida comes in off a big win too, smashing Toledo 49-24. QB Malik Rosier was 13 of 23 for 205 yards and two TD’s, while also adding 80 yards and three more scores on the ground. Note that the defense took a major hit with an injury to Jaquan Johnson. He he went out Toledo gained huge chunks through the air. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FIU is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Miami Florida is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think a confident and “under the radar” FIU team can keep this one competitive against an over-confident and complacent Hurricanes home side. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important early season ACC match-up between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Clemson enters off a 38-7 victory at home over Georgia Southern, while Georgia Tech is off a tough 24-19 road loss to Pittsburgh. Note that when these teams played last year it was Clemson that won 24-10 at home. The teams: Clemson comes in complacent here, now ranked No. 2 in the country. So far the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing 13.3. Clemson has a QB battle going on still between Trevor Lawrence and Kelly Bryant. Georgia Tech comes in hungry after opening the season 1-2. After a win over Alcorn State, the Yellow Jackets have dropped two straight on the road to South Florida and Pittsburgh. Overall the team is ranked 21st in the nation in total offense (510 YPG) and 64th in scoring with 32.7. The defense has also been sharp in allowing only 24.3 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The conditions are right for a much tighter than expected affair in my opinion. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta, while the home side hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz. The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA. He has been far from perfect this year, but I think the veteran has likely been just as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for to this point. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.70 ERA on the road. Foltynewicz is so far 11-10 with a 2.90 ERA. After giving up one run over a complete game victory over the Giants, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his latest outing against the Cards. Regardless the southpaw has also exceeded expectations to this point (note that Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Minnesota +3 v. Maryland | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Big 10 Conference opener for both sides and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 after beating New Mexico State, Fresno State and Miami Ohio, while Maryland is now 2-1 after getting upset at home by Temple last week. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Golden Gophers as well after Maryland beat Minnesota on the road 31-24 last season. The teams: Last year the Gophers finished 30th in overall defense and 11th against the pass in allowing only 174.5 YPG through the air. The unit lost a bunch of faces, but it’s still allowing just 184.3 YPG through the air this season. RB Bryce Williams had 141 yards on 33 carries last week. QB Zack Annexstad suffered an ankle injury, but he still finished with 142 yards and two TD’s before leaving. He’s likely going to start here, but if he doesn’t, it’ll be Tanner Morgan, who was 1 of 5 with an INT last week. But with a week of preparation, Morgan should look a lot better here if he does have to play. Besides, Minnesota will be focusing on its ground game and defensive play to win this game anyways. The Terps went just 1 of 12 on third downs last week against a mediocre Owls defense and now they face one of the toughest units in the country. Maryland passed for just 63 yards and totalled 195 last Saturday. Remember, Temple had already posted losses against Buffalo and FCS Villanova as well. QB Kasim Hill was 7 of 17 for 96 yards and a pick. The pick: Maryland’s rattled and ripe for the picking. Minnesota comes in on top form and in a revenge situation after last year’s setback. The outright’s possible, but grab the points.
|
|||||||
09-22-18 | Huddersfield Town v. Leicester -151 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Foxes have struggled with consistency once again this year, but I think they’ll have more than enough to score the victory in regulation at home. The teams: Leicester City has lost its last two against Liverpool and Bournemouth and it also lost its opening weekend match against Man-U, but it does have victories over Wolves and Southampton. Huddersfield Town has yet to win a game, picking up just two points out of a possible 15 so far in EPL action. The pick: The Terriers have struggled with offensive consistency (scored just once in their last four matches), which doesn’t bode well as note that the Foxes have kept clean sheets in two of their three home games. Look for Leicester City to get the job done. |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +28.5 | Top | 63-24 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Penn State comes to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois off a 63-10 victory over Kent State last weekend. The Illini enter off a hard-fought 25-19 loss to USF. The teams: Penn State QB Trace McSorley had 229 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s blowout win. So far he has 604 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Miles Sanders would post 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. The defense looked sharp as well in limiting the Flashes to just 221 total yards. The Fighting Illini are averaging 28 PPG, while they’re allowing just 21. MJ Rivers II had 168 passing yards in last week’s loss. But No. 1 QB AJ Bush is expected back under center for this one, which is a huge boost for the home side’s confidence. Ricky Smalling was an offensive standout last week as well with 40 receiving yards. The pick: Illinois has already played tough at home, as evidenced by its early 2-1 ATS record. Penn State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, including 0-1 ATS this season. I’m banking on these strong trends continuing. Grab the points.
|
|||||||
09-21-18 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole. The pitchers: Heaney is so far 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Saturday. Over his last 12 innings of work he’s allowed just two earned runs. Cole is so far 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’ll now be looking to close the regular season strong and improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.72 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of their last 14 night American League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly these are two very capable starters. This total is set low for a reason, but in my estimation, it’s a little too low. Admittedly these are two of the very best pitchers going head-to-head in this one, but this is also a couple of the hardest-hitting line-ups in the World as well. I look for this one to sneak “over” once it’s all said and done. The pitchers: Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA. He went three shutout innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Sale has looked good early in his limited time and he’ll be worked back into his full load slowly. However, the fact that he could be on a short leash again here definitely is a major factor working in our favor on this play. Bauer is so far 12-6 with a 2.22 ERA. Bauer’s been out since mid-August with a lower-leg fracture. The Indians have already clinched a playoff spot, so the team has little to play for over the final two weeks. Bauer will have a couple of “tune-ups” to get back into form before the post-season. The pick: Neither of these work horse starters is expected to see much time tonight and because of that, I’m going to recommend a play on the “over.” |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: These veteran starters have looked brilliant at times this season and very poor in others. I think they’re going to “get the hook early” here though and because of that I expect this total to sneak “over” before it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA. He’s been solid across the board, although he does sport a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night” games. Nova is so far 9-9 with a 4.07 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a win over these very Brewers on Saturday. Nova’s been better over the last month, but note that he’s still a terrible 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: These veterans have admittedly been decent of late, but I’ll caution by pointing that out that the Pirates have in fact seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is a little low, play the “over.”
|
|||||||
09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Florida -13.5 | Top | 36-56 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF comes in refreshed because its game last weekend was cancelled because of Hurricane Florence. Central Florida is already 2-0 with victories over UConn and South Carolina State. FAU lost to Oklahoma, before then bouncing back with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. The teams: The Owls do indeed come in off the 49-28 win over Bethune-Cookman, but they’ve had just five days off. Clearly the visitors are at a major disadvantage from a fitness and mental stand-point this week already. Devin Singletary was a standout in the latest victory with a school-record five rushing TD’s. The Knights have 612 yards on the ground through two games and 606 through the air. Seven different players have gained at least 68 yards, led by Adrian Killins Jr., who has 127 yards and three TD’s. QB McKenzie Milton is so far 45 of 71 for 589 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FAU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while UCF is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think the “fresher” home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week. Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG. The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 56 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in off an upset 35-14 road victory over Maryland. When these teams faced off last November 25th, it was Temple that ran away with the high-scoring 43-22 victory. While last year’s total flew well above the number, I think the 2018 match-up will produce a much lower-scoring combined final score. The teams: Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and it’s allowing 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s to this point. He also has 109 rushing yards and another major score on the ground. Shamari Brooks has 310 rushing yards and four TD’s. Last week the Golden Hurricane was out gained 409-339. The Owls opened the season 0-2, before last week’s surprise victory over the Terps. Temple had a ridiculous 429-195 yardage edge in the end. Overall the Owls average 27 PPG and allow just 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 256 yards on 54 carries. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tulsa has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses, while temple has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 17 as the favorite. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-20-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion, runs will be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 12-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but overall the right-hander is enjoying the best overall campaign of his career. Rodriguez has to be feeling confident in this spot as well as note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. Tanaka is so far 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Tanka is 7-0 on the road and only 5-5 at home, but he owns a 3.56 ERA in friendly confines and there’s no reason not to think the Asian hurler won’t bring his “A” game here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 American League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs’ Cole Hamels has for the most part looked fantastic since coming over in a trade from the Rangers. Not perfect though. The Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray has endured up and down season as well. These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. I think this one will sneak “over” the number in the end. The pitchers: Hamels is so far 9-9 with a 3.67 ERA. He’s been better on the road this year than in home situations, but there’s no question he faces a difficult opponent in a difficult venue tonight (note that the Cubs have seen the total go “over” in ten of their last 17 National League night road games when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.) Ray is so far 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA. He’s been much better in the second half of the season after a shaky first, but note that he still owns a poor 5.57 ERA at home this season. The pick: I believe these veteran starters are running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch and I think each will “get the hook early” in this one. As a result, look for this total to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done.
|
|||||||
09-19-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Braves | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound, but this isn’t one of those. I think the Cards have the distinct advantage on the hill tonight. The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side sends Touki Toussaint to the bump. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 8-7 with a 2.86 ERA. He comes in off a hard-luck loss against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up one earned run off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. Flaherty has not given up more than three earned runs in an outing since late July. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well. Toussaint is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA. He was moved to the bullpen last week after three straight lacklustre starts to open his career, but he’s back in the rotation out of necessity. Note that Toussaint has as many walks as he does K’s so far this season. The pick: I love Flaherty in this spot. He was the victim of poor run support in his last outing, but that’s not going to be a problem here in my estimation facing the shaky Toussaint. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. |
|||||||
09-18-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber. The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well. Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point. The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-18-18 | Royals v. Pirates -195 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Eric Skoglund, while the home side sends Jameson Taillon to the hill. I think Taillon is well worth the price in this spot. The pitchers: Skoglund is so far 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA. He’s been more effective of late, but he’s been terrible on the road all year, coming in with an 0-2, 7.15 ERA to this point. Taillon is so far 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over St. louis on Wednesday. It was his fourth straight victory. The pick: Note that over his last four trips to the hill Taillon has posted a tiny 2.16 ERA and elite 25:3 K/BB in that span. The massive talent-gap on the mound today makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
09-18-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ. The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA. Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. However, I absolutely feel that Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks are worth the price in this one at home. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA. After a shaky first half, Hendricks has looked a lot better in the second. That said, note that he still owns a very pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Corbin is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off ten hits while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Wednesday. The pick: Corbin has now struck out at least seven batters in ten straight outings while posting an elite 81/9 K:BB in that span. The southpaw has been at his best at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA. I’m banking on Corbin continuing his strong play at home, while I expect Hendricks’ road mediocrity to not be enough to get the job done this time. Lay the price. |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago. The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall. The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings. Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Giants +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time. The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards. Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points. |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the home side on the “run line” is the correct call in this Sunday night match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling, while the Cards go with Adam Wainwright. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Stripling’s back in the rotation out of necessity and he’s done exceptionally well whenever he’s been given the chance this season. Stripling’s been great, I simply feel that he and his team are over-priced in this spot against the hungry home side. Wainwright is so far 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He returned from the DL on Monday and gave up four runs while striking out three in a fortunate win over the Pirates. Clearly Wainwright has seen better days, but the veteran will be given every opportunity by the club during its playoff push. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Grab the Cards on the “run line.” |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking. The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards. San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one. Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 42.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low. The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone. LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Panthers +7 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe. The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina. |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Mets v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA. Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start. The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Missouri v. Purdue +6.5 | Top | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The teams: Missouri is so far averaging 396 yards per game in the early going, but it faces a stiff test today. The offense has put up 45.5 PPG, while the defense has allowed only 13.5. QB Drew Lock had 687 yards, eight TD’s and no INT’s. Purdue is ranked 89th in the country in passing offense with an average of 202.5 YPG. 24th in rushing offense though with 271.5 YPG. So far the combination of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar has come up short under center, but I think that changes this weekend. The offense is averaging just 23 PPG right now, but the defense is giving up only 25.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field, while Purdue is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. An outright upset? Possibly. Purdue is without question the “hungrier” team and I think this game will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on Purdue. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | San Jose State v. Oregon -41 | Top | 22-35 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a classic “David vs. Goliath” match-up. However in this version, I believe Goliath will pound David through the field turf! Oregon comes in off back-to-back blowout victories and I fully expect that trend to carry over here for one more game. San Jose State on the other hand was shutout in a loss to Washington State last weekend. The teams: The Spartans put up 38 points in a loss to FCS UC Davis and then got killed by Washington State. Overall San Jose State has a total of 109 yards of offense over the first two games, with 100 of those coming through the air. So far Oregon has outscored its opponents by 31 points to open the year, as QB Justin Herbert has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, nine TD’s and two INT’s. The ground attack has been solid as well and it looks poised for a massive game here against SJSU’s pathetic defense. The pick: The Spartans though have been particularly horrible against the pass, giving up an average of 433 yards per game through the air to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while San Jose State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road. I don’t think SJSU will score a point. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | BYU +23 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for the Badgers to come in a tiny bit complacent here and I expect them to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent. Wisconsin has won two in a row, most recently hammering New Mexico 45-14, while BYU comes in off a slim 21-18 home setback to Cal. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game after Wisconsin smashed BYU 40-6 on the road last year. The teams: BYU QB Tanner Mangum was 22 of 41 for 196 yards and two INT’s last week. So far he has a 2:2 TD/INT over two games. Over the first two games the offense is averaging 23 points. The defense though has looked pretty good, last week it gave up 386 total yards. Over the first two games the Cougars are allowing 22 points. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has a 3:1 TD/INT after two games, after throwing 25 TD passes last season. RB Jonathan Taylor had 253 rushing yards, but he’ll be up against a decent BYU rush defense this week. The defense was a strength of the team last year and it will be again this season as well. However note that the unit did lose eight starters from last year’s squad. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Wisconsin is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 at home and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Grab the points, play on BYU. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Miami-OH +13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 3-26 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Minnesota comes in complacent here after two straight wins, most recently a 21-14 victory at home over Fresno State. Miami Ohio on the other hand is looking to atone after a 21-0 “dud” loss to Cincinnati. The teams: Redhawks’ QB Gus Ragland had 357 yards passing in Week 1’s loss to Marshall, but he was just 22 of 41 for 139 in last week’s loss. WR James Gardner has been a bright spot early with 142 yards over the first two games. Miami Ohio has looked decent defensively in the early going as well, last week limiting Cincinnati to just 233 total yards. Note that he pass defense was ranked 41st last season. Last week the Golden Gophers limited Fresno State to 299 total yards. QB Zack Annexstad had 175 yards in the win. But the victory came at a major cost, as note that star RB Rodney Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. He is arguably the best player on the team and it’s a major blow to the team’s psyche. The pick: With a game at 2-0 Maryland next week, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” game for the Golden Gophers. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Temple +17 v. Maryland | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first time these teams have played since 2012, however they’re separated by just two hours by bus. Temple is 0-2 after losing to FCS Villanova and then Buffalo, while Maryland comes in complacent at 2-0 after upsetting Texas 34-29, before then smashing Bowling Green 45-14. I am not predicting an outright upset, but I do think the Terps “look past” their lowly opponent today. The teams: Last year the Owls had the top ranked pass defense in the AAC and the unit returned many starters, including Shaun Bradely (85 tackles) and Delvon Randall this season. So far the defense has been a disappointment, but the talent is certainly there to make a bounce back. Last week the offense posted 240 yards, with QB Frank Nutile posting three TD’s and two INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead had 107 yards on 14 carries. Maryland was down 14-10 to the Green Falcons at half time last week, but it would outscore Bowling Green 35-0 in the second half. The Terps rushed for 444 yards. QB Kasim Hill was a disappointment though, going 8 of 16 for 121 yards and a TD. The Terps have looked solid defensively in the early going and vs. very weak competition, but don’t forget that they were last or near the bottom of the Big 10 in every defensive statistical category last year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Temple is still 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Maryland is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 at home. Grab the points, play on the Owls. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Hawaii v. Army UNDER 62.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The teams: Hawaii is already 3-0 with wins over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. The Warriors have defied the odds to this point, most recently smashing Rice 43-29 as a 17 point favorite this past weekend. QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s last week, but I think Hawaii finally stumbles here against the Black Knights opportunistic defense and in this difficult road venue. Army is 1-1 after losing to Duke its opener, before then bouncing back with a victory over Liberty. The Black Knights rushed for 449 yards last week and they’ll be looking to duplicate that performance here. The last thing Army wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Warriors, so expect the home side offense to try and maintain possession for as long as possible, whenever possible. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Hawaii has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army has seen the total go “under” in interestingly seven of its last ten games played in the month of September. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Liverpool v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two of the top teams in the league. Liverpool has a perfect record after four games, while Tottenham is 3-1. The teams: The attacking trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino is a formidable one for Liverpool. This will be its stiffest test defensively though and I think the team is going to put a concerted effort on that end of the field today after some somewhat sloppy play on that side of the ball to open the campaign. The Hotspur won 3-0 at Old Trafford, before then being humbled 2-1 by Watford. Mauricio Pochettino’s men looked disinterested and inconsistency in form has plagued Tottenham for years now. The pick: These are two dangerous offensive teams, but with each looking for the other to make the first mistake, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring battle today. Play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this National League contest Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Buehler is so far 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over six innings (striking out seven) in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Coors Field though is a difficult one for most pitchers, so I’m not reading too much into one sub-par effort. Note that Buehler still owns an awesome 2.23 ERA in all “night” games. Flaherty is so far 8-6 with a 2.92 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings while striking out six in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. Flaherty looks to get back on track here and improve upon his already impressive 2.68 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well by LA has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 13 National League road night games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
|
|||||||
09-14-18 | Nationals -137 v. Braves | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I do think that Max Scherzer and the opportunistic Nationals are worth the price of admission in this one. The home side sends Kevin Gausman to the hill. The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 17-6 with a 2.31 ERA. The veteran is in line for a Cy Young award and he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 8-3, 2.04 ERA record on the road. Gausman is so far 9-10 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently got shelled for four runs off seven hits with four walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Overall Gausman has been solid for his new club, but I still think he’s in well over his head in this match-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 in its last nine night National League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Bank on Scherzer coming in focused in this important matchup and lay the price. |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night. The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well. Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The home side will be eager to return to form here after a tough setback at Navy last weekend, eventually succumbing 22-21. Georgia State will be out to score an upset here and to atone for a lacklustre 41-7 loss to NC State last Saturday. This is the first ever meeting between the schools and I think each is going to be a wide open affair. The teams: Georgia State scored the first TD of the game last week, but then it was shut down and outscored by 41 points the rest of the way. QB Dan Ellington threw for 194 yards. In his team’s season opening win over Kennesaw State he threw for 187 yards. But the Panthers defense is atrocious in the early going, most recently allowing the Wolfpack to throw for 426 yards. In fact the secondary returns just one starter. Memphis smashed FCS Mercer 66-14, but it couldn’t hold on to a 21-9 lead over the Black Knights last week. Darrell Henderson had three TD runs, including 78 yard and 59 yard scampers. QB Brady White was 15 of 25 for 145 yards. The defense gave up 264 total yards. Last year the defense was a weak point, ranked 117th in the nation. The pick: The Tigers were particularly poor against the pass last year as well, ranked 122nd by allowing 282.1 YPG. Memphis didn’t have to worry about Army passing, but it’s going to have its hands full today with a Panthers team looking to air it out early and often. This one just screams “shootout.” Play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important early season divisional match-up. Both teams enter off high-scoring Week 1 victories, but on the short turn-around on Thursday night I’m expecting more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” The teams: Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of the Bills. The Ravens’ starters were rested for a great deal of the Week 1 blowout, including Joe Flacco, who was 25 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s. The Ravens’ defense was downright dominant though, holding the Bills to only 83 rushing yards and 70 passing yards. Cincinnati opened the year with a come-from-behind 34-23 road victory over the Colts. QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an interception. Last year the Bengals finished last in the NFL with only 280.5 yards of offense per game, so clearly this Week 1 victory was a step in the right direction. However, Dalton and company, especially WR AJ Green, have struggled against the Ravens’ ferocious defensive attack in the past and I think that’s going to be the case again here tonight also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 against the division, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 16 as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College -4.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 2-0. The Golden Eagles though play with revenge and they have a deeper overall team this season. I think that’s going to be more than enough to propel the visitors to a victory tonight. The teams: BC smashed Holy Cross 62-14 last weekend. QB Anthony Brown only had to play one quarter. In Week 1 he had four TD’s against UMass. Wake Forest’s weakness on defense is against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Demon Deacons tonight. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards last week. The defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. Wake Forest cruised to a 51-20 home win over Towson last week. QB Sam Hartman had two TD’s and 242 passing yards las week. He also has three INT’s early in the season though. RB Cade Carney had a big game with 130 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons looked sharp defensively against the lowly Tigers, holding them to just 65 rushing yards. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game (note that Wake was 124th in the country in defending the pass last year and it just let Towson throw for over 300!), while the Eagles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I look for BC QB Brown to have a very productive game here. Lay the points. |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Cubs -124 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Mike Montgomery and the visiting side have the advantage on the road in this one. The home side sends Joe Ross to the hill to counter. The teams: Montgomery is so far 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a rain-out, so he comes in extra rested. Montgomery hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he’s posted a very respectable 3.13 ERA on the road to this point. Ross is so far 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He re-joined the rotation after being out since July 2017 with Tommy John surgery, but his debut was cut short after just 1.2 innings because of rain. The pick: Ross looked decent in his re-hab, but clearly he draws a tough opponent here. Montgomery can take advantage and I think the southpaw will do just that. Great spot to pull the trigger on the visitors. Play on the Cubs. |
|||||||
09-12-18 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think the Yanks’ Luis Severino and the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi will fight deep into the latter frames, which will in turn result in pushing this total “under” the number at the end of the night. The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-7 with a 3.52 ERA. After a disastrous August, Severino has looked more steady of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA in all “night” games. Odorizzi is so far 5-10 with a 4.57 ERA. Last year he was 10-8 with a 4.14 ERA, so 2018 has clearly been a step back for the hard-throwing right-hander. He’s coming off a loss against the Astros last week and while his ERA is nothing to write home about, I’ll point out that he does own the respectable 1.26 WHIP and 148:61 K/BB over 147.2 frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 24 American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners -141 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Wade LeBlanc is worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi. The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 7-8 with a 3.59 ERA. The rookie has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll stumble here against LeBlanc in this difficult road venue. LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings, continuing a trend of consistent form. Note that LeBlanc is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA at home and an elite 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 night inter-league home games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. Look for Lucchesi to take a step back and for LeBlanc to confidently take advantage. Lay the price. |
|||||||
09-12-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the mound this afternoon, that I have no issues at all in laying the the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors go with Gerritt Cole, while the home side goes with Daniel Norris. The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with three walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a win over the Angels in his last start. Cole has been sharp on the road as well, going 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA. Norris is so far 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. He has struggled in his limited time so far this season and there’s no reason not to think that that pattern of futility won’t get carried over here as well. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine American League road games in which they’re a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Look for Cole to dominate from the start and for Norris to get the hook early and lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
|||||||
09-11-18 | White Sox v. Royals -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither of these staters instills much confidence and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey, while the home side goes with Brad Keller. The pitchers: Covey is so far 5-12 with a 5.44 ERA. He’s made strides over the last month, but note that he’s still just 2-6 with an atrocious 6.39 ERA on the road. Keller is so far 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Orioles on Friday. After a great run, Keller comes in off a loss against the Indians though and I think he’ll continue to regress here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 17 American League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
09-11-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-up on the mound, and this is one of those. The visitors go with Jose Urena, while the home side hands the ball to Jacob deGrom. The pitchers: Urena is so far 5-12 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Monday. deGrom is so far 8-8 with a 1.68 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. deGrom’s scheduled start was postponed on Monday due to rain, so he comes into this one with extra rest. The pick: deGrom has been even tougher at home on opponents than on the road, as evidenced by his tiny 1.59 ERA in such instances. Note as well that New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 20 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.