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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-22 | Indiana -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble.
Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here.
Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession).
Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three. First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake -12.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.
About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well.
The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.
Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday. The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception. Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand. I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me. |
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11-17-22 | Islanders v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
The 8-2 Islanders travel to Nashville to meet the Preds who have won 2 straight at home, allowing just a pair of goals total. They only scored 4, and that has been the way of their offense this year. They are 30th in the league in goals scored and PP performance, while the defense has been average. The difference in the last two game is that Saros, who has played to mixed reviews this season, has found his usual form, with a save % of over .970 in those games. |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.
Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU).
This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.
SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's OVER 158 | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.
Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.
Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out.
St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Warriors +2 v. Suns | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team. Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years. This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat. Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five. But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range. I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago |
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11-16-22 | Blues v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
We've got the league's two worst offenses facing off today when the Blues meet the home team Black Hawks. St. Louis's defense has been no great shakes either, but they did limit Vegas and the Avs to two goals each in their latest games. Chicago's defense has been above average to date. Blues net minder Binnington bounced back with a couple of fine .940+ save % games in his latest appearances. Soderblom has opened some eyes in Chicago allowing just 2.6 goals a game. It is no surprise that the rebuilding Black Hawks haven't been able to sustain their fine start. They have struggled to score lately with 6 straight unders to show for it. The Blues have been a mixed bag, but Binnington is capable of being a game changer, and the Blues seem to be more defensibly responsible in their last three games. Take today's game to go under again. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State -4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016. San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific. A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State |
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11-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Ole Miss OVER 139 | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday.
Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.
There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.
Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them. Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up.
Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter.
The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.
New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo UNDER 50.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns. Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles -10.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday. Not to mention healthier and better rested. The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc. I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one. |
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11-14-22 | Wofford v. Drake -10 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.
Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48.
For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen.
Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half. Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Oral Roberts v. Houston UNDER 144.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).
In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.
The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.
Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo. This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys -5 v. Packers | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers. On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights. One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week. There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games. Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week. The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year. They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline. The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB. |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants UNDER 41 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards. It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats. The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season. Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns. Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans. |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants -4 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York. Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles. Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league. The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time. In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards. How will Pierce fare? The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points. The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions. The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately. The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games. |
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11-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -1 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string. Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State. The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game. The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.” Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10* |
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11-12-22 | Penguins v. Canadiens +130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
The Penguins have won their last two games after a lengthy losing streak, but are on the wrong end a back to back, a situation they have not thrived in recently and in the long term. They are also struggling on the road to date in the season. Jarry likely starts, and after a very good start to the season, has not shown well lately, with an average save % of well under .900 . DeSmith played in both recent victories. Underdogs and home teams have the advantage in recent meetings between these two teams, and the Canadiens are both on Saturday. Although they can be up and down, they have a better record than the Penguins, and have also won 2 straight. They are considerably better on defense and on the PK this year. Allen, the likely starter on Saturday has a .907 save %, and was very strong against the Sabres in his last game. The Penguins are a surprisingly high road favorite on Saturday, and I am not sure that that line is justified. Take the underdog Habs to come through at home. |
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11-12-22 | Mike Trizano v. Seung Woo Choi -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.
It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.
Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.
Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10* |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.
With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.
UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic.
With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams. Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10* |
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11-12-22 | Arsenal v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 115 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.
Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league.
Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium. My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. |
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11-12-22 | Notre Dame v. Navy +17 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS.
A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have.
Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.
By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here.
Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Stars, winners of 3 of 4 games, are back home and facing a struggling 3-12 Sharks team. The offense has been clicking; Dallas averaged 6 goals-for a game in those three wins before a poor performance against a tough Jets team at the tail end of the road trip. The Sharks have had no recent luck (0-6) against the Stars in Dallas and are just 2-4 on the road this season. San Jose has scored over three goals a game in their last 6 appearances, an improvement over the early season. The problem is that they have allowed well over 4 goals a game, resulting in 5 straight losses. They are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. We've seen a steady diet of overs from the Sharks, and while the offense has improved, managing to keep the Sharks in games lately, the defense has not. The Sharks face a very potent Stars offense and power play tonight. The suggested total is about average; too low for this match up. Jump on the over in this game. |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog.
Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.
This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10.
The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year. At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | Top | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Denver and Boston collide Friday night on NBA TV and both squads are coming off high-scoring victories Wednesday night. Denver won 122-119 in Indiana while Boston prevailed 128-112 here at home over Detroit.
Because of those final scores, tonight’s O/U opened quite high. It’s already been bet down, but I’m still liking the Under here.
Boston has been lighting up some bad teams of late. Chicago, New York and Detroit were three of the victims in the current four-game win streak. But when the Celtics faced Memphis on Monday, they finished the game with just 109 points.
Denver, also on a four-game winning run, has also been running through bad teams. They’ve faced Oklahoma City, San Antonio twice and then of course Indiana. In a more high-profile encounter, expect more defense from both teams. The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams and the last four here in Beantown. 10* |
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11-11-22 | Kansas State -6 v. California | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.
There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.
On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.
Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10* |
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11-10-22 | Falcons -3 v. Panthers | Top | 15-25 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday. The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense. |
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11-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Marquette -17.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.
This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.
Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team?
The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10* |
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11-10-22 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 223 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Philadelphia comes into this game at just 5-6 on the season, but they did just hold Phoenix to 88 points in a win Monday night. I had the Under in that game and that’s the play again here as the 76ers travel to Atlanta to face the 7-4 Hawks.
Now the Hawks’ game last night was rather high scoring as they fell 125-119 to the Jazz. They came in sporting the league’s top three-point FG% defense (32.5%) but sat back and watched Utah make 17 of 39. I don’t think that will be the case again here, however.
I say that knowing full well that the 76ers are shooting 39.2% from three this season. But remember that James Harden is now out for the next month. Even with Joel Embiid back, the team scored only 100 points Monday. They’ve been playing at a much slower pace recently as well.
The 76ers are elite defensively though, at least with Embiid on the floor. The loss of Harden certainly doesn’t hurt at that end of the floor. I just think this number is too high. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have stayed Under including seven straight. 8* |
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11-10-22 | Georgia Southern +3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game.
Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game.
Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17. So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10* |
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11-10-22 | Flames v. Bruins -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Flames started out strongly this season but have now lost 6 straight. They are on the road against a Bruins team that has only lost 2 games this season, and is top of the heap in the Atlantic Division. Thursday's starting goalie Ullmark is a sparkling 9-1, .932 save %, outplaying a disappointing Markstrom, who is allowing nearly three goals a game and with a sub-.900 save %. The Flames are not the powerhouse of last year. Their top line has been completely revamped and is not clicking. They have a barely average offense, and a sub-par defense. The Bruins by comparison are best in goals scored (4.1 per game), third in defense (2.4 goals allowed), and with a huge edge in special teams. There are even sightings of a healthy McAvoy. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix and Minnesota met on November 1st. That game stayed Under the total, ending up 116-107. We’ve got a slightly lower number for the rematch. But again, the Under is the way to go.
Starting with Minnesota, the last four Suns’ games have all stayed Under. I had the Under when they lost 100-88 at Philadelphia on Monday.
The Suns are playing great defense. They rank third in points allowed. They are also bottom four in pace. So they are playing slow as well. Great defense + playing slow = a solid combo to cash Unders.
Minnesota’s starting five has really struggled when on the court together. The Under is 8-3 in all Timberwolves games. Injuries are piling up for Phoenix: Cameron Johnson is out while Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton are both questionable after leaving Monday’s game. Take the Under. |
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11-09-22 | Monmouth v. Seton Hall UNDER 135.5 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year.
The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.
Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored. Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Penguins -120 v. Capitals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The Capitals are home against the faltering Penguins, but haven't exactly been burning up the score sheets either, scoring less than 2 goals a game and winning just twice in their last 7 games. After an embarrassing loss to the Coyotes, they rallied vs the Oilers on Monday. Kuemper, likely in net against the Penguins, has been steady lately other than a painful third period in the loss vs Phoenix. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers.
Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.
I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.
Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 56 | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.
Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight.
Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.
Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo. The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10* |
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11-08-22 | Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship. Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* |
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11-08-22 | Montana +4 v. Duquesne | Top | 63-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back. There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State. After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points. Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8* |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football. Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses. The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense. The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before. |
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11-07-22 | Memphis -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide.
Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points.
Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.
Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 7-2, Phoenix has been one of the best teams in the league to start the season. Both losses came against Portland, but the Suns just avenged those on Saturday by beating the Blazers 102-82. Offensively, the Suns have been very good so far as they are averaging 115.1 points/game. But they are now missing Cam Johnson and possibly Cameron Payne (questionable for tonight) as well. The team’s scoring already dips away from home (111.5 points/game), but fortunately they are also third in the league in defense. Philadelphia is easier to defend right now as James Harden is out for a month and Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with an illness. Without those two, the Sixers only managed 104 points in a loss to the Knicks on Friday. Even if Embiid returns, the Sixers have struggled mightily on the offensive end all season. They are 23rd in the league in points/game (109.8). They haven’t shot all that poorly, but are bottom third in pace and that clearly plays a role in why they aren’t scoring all that much. The Sixers have been exceptional at defending the three-point line here at home. The previous five visitors to the City of Brotherly Love have shot just 30.9% from three. 10* |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals. The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season. There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition. The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III. Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games. |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins -4 v. Bears | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show |
Facing the Bears at home, the Dolphins successfully propped up a couple of areas in need of improvement, pass defense and run offense. The Bears brought in a quality receiver, but moved their top two defensive players out. We saw some of the effect last week as the Chicago defense absolutely plummeted in effectiveness. They allowed double their season's average points against total, and their vaunted pass defense fell apart, allowing a third more yards. Against a healthy and fired up Tua-lead Dolphins pass attack, this is not good news. |
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11-06-22 | Packers -3.5 v. Lions | Top | 9-15 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots. The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions. They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest v. NC State +3 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS.
Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1.
Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.
NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10* |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
Game Six features a rematch of Game Two starters, Wheeler and Valdez. Wheeler was lights out early in the postseason, but struggled against the Astros in his last start, experiencing a much remarked-on loss of velocity. He was not as good on the road in the regular season, and was hit very hard by Houston’s big three batters last time out. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.
We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.
Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.
Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8* |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!
UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee.
Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.
Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season. No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10* |
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11-05-22 | UTSA v. UAB +1 | Top | 44-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.
Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.
With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.
Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10* |
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11-05-22 | Brentford v. Nottingham Forest UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.
But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool.
Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures.
Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10* |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.
OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.
Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game.
Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more. Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10* |
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11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago.
The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me.
In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight.
Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points. That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* |
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11-04-22 | Sabres +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Sabres are firing on all cylinders on offense, with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games, all victories. They are on the road and face a very good Hurricanes team fresh off an overtime victory against the Lightning. Maybe too fresh, as the Canes are playing the second half of a back to back. The Sabres lost both games against Carolina, but that was then.. This is a different Sabres club with an equal record to the Hurricanes. They are 2nd in league offense, 3-1 to date on the road, and have the edge in special teams. The odds-makers are slow in cottoning on to the Sabres, allowing for very favorable odds on Friday. A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I am wagering on the Sabres to at least keep this one close. Take Buffalo +1.5 |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass.
These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet.
UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG.
UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8* |
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11-03-22 | Eagles -13.5 v. Texans | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -116 | 44 h 23 m | Show |
The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season. The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles. The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles. Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game. The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted. the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards. The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF. |
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11-03-22 | Astros -148 v. Phillies | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
Nothing like a bounce back co-operative no-hitter to inspire a bit of confidence for Houston. Now in the Phillies' final home game of the series they run out Syndergaard, who had an average year throwing mainly soft stuff, but has been very good in brief appearances since mid-September. The Phillies will likely have a similar tactic on Thursday; anything over 3 or 4 innings will be a bonus. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams. The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year. But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them. Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. |
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11-02-22 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.
The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season.
Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.
Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. |
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11-02-22 | Astros -101 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Everyone's favorite cinderfella team was at it again, stunning the Astros with a 7-0 rout. At home again today, it is the Phillies' Nola vs Christian Javier. Javier, the Astros' young right hander, was lights out vs the Rays over 6+ innings in his only postseason start as well as nearly perfect in September (0.40 ERA over 22 innings.) Nola shut out the Astros down the stretch, and pitched very well in his first two postseason starts, allowing just 1 run. He has struggled since against the Padres and Astros, allowing 11 runs, and 4 HR, in his last 9 innings. Both bullpens are in very good shape after the extra day of rest and yesterday's blowout. The Phillies, with the supposedly inferior pitching staff, keep making it work, and they also keep pounding out the long balls, but I don't think this series is done yet. Nola's very poor pitching is troubling, and while he will be on a short leash today, the Astros will be all in after yesterday's poor performance. Look for Javier to silence the Phillies' bats and crowd today, and the Astros big bats to speak out. The Astros bullpen was, as usual, very good again yesterday. Take the Astros to win. |
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11-01-22 | Astros -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Even though the Fall Classic now moves to Philadelphia, I feel the pendulum has swung in the Astros’ direction. The Astros were 2nd in the league against left-handers and have hit them very hard as well in the postseason. They are a very good road team. |
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11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.
But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8* |
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11-01-22 | Ball State v. Kent State OVER 62 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot.
Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.
What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.
Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio. Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10* |
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11-01-22 | Inter Milan v. Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona.
So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well.
Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.
Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9* |
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10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
The Bengals offense is sizzling, showing huge improvement in their recent games. They put up mammoth yards last week, and are top eight in points and Red zone offense, and top 2 in possession time and 3rd down conversions. While they are running more successfully and getting more points from the rush offense, It is their passing game, as expected that is carrying the team. Burrows has been a standout and isn't even sacked as often lately. In fact, using sack %, the Browns' QB Brissett has been sacked just as often in recent games. |
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10-31-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 237 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
These teams just met on Saturday. Indiana was a 125-116 winner, thanks in no small part to rookie Bennedict Mathurin going for 32 points. The Pacers were 11 point underdogs as they won their second straight game.
Brooklyn has lost four in a row and five of six to open the season. In the words of their own head coach, the Nets have been a “disaster” defensively. In each of the last four defeats, an opposing player has gone for 30 or more points. Mathurian, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined to make 17 three-pointers Saturday.
I think the Nets are going to be extremely focused on the defensive end tonight as they are keenly aware of their previous lackluster efforts on that end of the floor. Plus, the Pacers are probably due to “cool off” a bit after hitting a combined 38 threes in the last two games.
Myles Turner did not suit up for Indiana on Saturday. With him in the lineup, the team is poised to be a lot better defensively. He is not on the injury report for Monday. This is a really high total, a number that the teams barely cleared 48 hours ago. With Indiana unlikely to shoot as well as they did Saturday and (hopefully) a renewed commitment to defense from the Nets, Under is my call for tonight. Also, Brooklyn probably won’t shoot 50% from the field again. 10* |
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10-30-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!
Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.
Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.
The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* |
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10-30-22 | Commanders +3 v. Colts | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
The Colts are on the road and facing an improved Commanders team off a big win last week. Neither team puts many points on the board, and neither team gives up many against. Both defenses are top ten in applying pressure on passers, and almost equally bad in protecting their own QBs. The Commanders have a pair of accomplished and complementary RBs, and are using them more each week. The Colts have a recovering Jonathon Taylor, who has been seriously under-used when playing to date. For whatever reason, the Colts are in the cellar in rushing categories, but that may change this week. With a young QB who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, the run game will likely be a huge part of the Colts offense on Sunday. |
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10-30-22 | Titans +1 v. Texans | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
It is all about the run on both sides of the ball for the Titans. King Henry is most of the offense, but Tennessee isn't even close to having the best running stats. The Titans run a very efficient offense, scoring more points with less yards. Tannehill is out, and while he doesn't put up huge numbers, he has been accurate, effective and doesn't make many mistakes. It remains to be seen how much the inclusion of Willis will affect the Titans' offense management. Willis will bring his own abilities. He can run effectively, adding to an otherwise one-dimensional run offense. |
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10-30-22 | Bears +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
So far this season the Cowboys' success is largely defense-driven. That may change with Prescott back, but against a very tough Bears defense, I don't see Dallas as a huge scoring threat this week. For the Bears, their limited success is all about gaining on the ground and limiting the opposition's pass offense. The Bears have the most rushing yards in the league; their pair of running backs and a mobile QB in Fields put up a mighty 240 plus yards against the Patriots last week. The Cowboys can also run the football, but will likely miss key performer Elliott to injury this week. |
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10-30-22 | Nottingham Forest v. Arsenal UNDER 3.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.
It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010.
The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8.
But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-29-22 | Phillies +129 v. Astros | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
After a wild ride in game one of the WS, The Astros are favored to bounce back. With both starters faltering early and multiple bullpen arms used, the Astros definitely have the better relief options in game 2. Wheeler starts for the Phillies. Since returning from a stretch on the IL, has has been exceptional, and that fine play has stretched into the post season. Wheeler has the potential to pitch late into the game today, and has his best stuff in years. The Philllies have more than “made do” with their bullpen through the post season. Astros’ left handed starter Valdez had a fine season, but did struggle down the stretch for a couple of games. He also struggled seriously in the Astros’ WS run last year. The Phillies hit left-handers well all season, are getting fine offense, and have momentum on their side. That extra innings win may have rattled the Astros’ cage. This wouldn’t be the first time that the Astros have lost out in a WS run. Unexpectedly down after blowing a big lead is unsettling, but more to the point, the Phillies must win Wheeler’s start to have any chance of defeating the Astros over the series. I am going with the Phillies’ offense, momentum and emotion today. (deep breath here) Take the underdog Phillies to steal this game. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards.
Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.
There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26.
The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016. An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. |
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10-29-22 | Oregon v. California +17.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog.
His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.
Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points.
Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points. |
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10-29-22 | Charlotte +16.5 v. Rice | Top | 56-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.
Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.
So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.
Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte. |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame +2 v. Syracuse | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.
The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.
Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25 entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter.
In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10* |
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10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown.
West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17. Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers.
I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. |
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10-28-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -7 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones.
Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.
Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night.
The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans. These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10* |
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10-28-22 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight. With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out. . He likely faces Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season. He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher. Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest. The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment. They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense, a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season. It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one. |
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10-28-22 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Devils are an improved team, especially on offense, but in the net it has been a bit of the "same ol'". They've limited shots but not necessarily goals. Blackwood (.871 save%) was expected to start but may be injured, in which case it will be Vanacek, who has struggled to an .833 save% in net. Their goals against have fluctuated wildly, but against the Avs, expect more rather than less today. |
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10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them. Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10* |
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10-27-22 | Ravens +1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored? As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards. On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week. As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense. I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night. |
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10-27-22 | Mavs -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process. That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight. Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee. Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10* |
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10-26-22 | Oilers v. Blues +108 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The Oilers are putting the puck in the net with considerable frequency, as expected, but are allowing over three goals a game on defense. That recent 0-2 home loss against the Blues really stands out amid the usual 8 or more goal totals. Blues' projected goaltender Binnington is 3-0 with a very sharp .944 save %. Jack Campbell has started the bulk of the Oilers games and has a sub .900 save % to date. The Blues are always tough to play against, and after their first loss of the season, could be particularly ornery. Special teams will likely figure prominently. The Blues have yet to yield a power play goal, but face the League's #2 power play. The Blues are a slight underdog at home, but so far have had the answer to the Oilers' firepower. Take the Blues to win. |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Bucks and Nets met in the playoffs two years ago with the former winning a seven-game series en route to a NBA Championship. Last year, both teams fell victim to eventual Eastern Conference Champions Boston. The Bucks have played only two games so far and they won them both, 90-88 at Philadelphia and 125-105 over Houston. The latter result came here at home on Saturday. Not only was Milwaukee one of the last two teams to start the season, they’ve now been off for three days. So I don’t expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in this game, especially without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton It’s a small sample size, but the Bucks are only 19th in offensive efficiency. There have been no problems defensively however, as they rank #1 in efficiency. The team is also playing slower to start the year. Though Brooklyn has been a bit of a disaster defensively thus far, the above factors have me on the Under in this game. The Nets’ offensive numbers haven’t been that good and that’s just as big of a reason as why they come into tonight at 1-2 SU/ATS. The starting five has not played well together. Milwaukee has scored at least 120 in 9 of the last 11 regular season meetings with Brooklyn. But the Under is 10-3 the L13 meetings overall, including 6-1 in Milwaukee. This number is too high. |
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10-26-22 | Bayern Munich v. Barcelona FC OVER 3.25 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -56 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Barcelona’s motivation for Wednesday’s match will be greatly affected by Inter Milan’s result earlier in the day. If Inter defeats Viktoria Plzen (and you would expect they would), then Barca has no chance of progressing to the Round of 16. But nevertheless, I expect this to be a high-scoring match as Robert Lewandowski faces his former club. Bayern Munich has already booked its spot in the knockout stage by winning all of its four Champions League matches so far. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals in the four wins. Prior to a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Bayern had scored four or more times in five of six matches overall. You’ve got to figure they are going to score at least two today. It was a 2-0 Bayern win when they hosted Barcelona last month. But the underlying metrics say that Barca was a bit unlucky there as they created more big scoring chances and had a higher xG. Can’t see Lewandowski and company getting blanked at Camp Nou, regardless if they’ve still got a shot to move on in this competition or not. Bayern’s defense can be leaky, especially when away from home. They’ve also conceded twice in three of the last five matches overall. I like the Over here. 10* |
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10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.
With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.
Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96. With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10* |
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10-25-22 | Shakhtar Donetsk v. Celtic -125 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Celtic has had a pretty disastrous run so far in the Champions League, losing three of their four matches and earning one draw. Their -7 GD is among the worst in the competition (only three teams worse). But today, I think you can expect a much better showing from the Scottish standardbearers as they face the side they previously earned a draw with, Shakhtar Donetsk. If they are to have any hope of finishing third in the group and progressing to the Europa League knockout stage, Celtic must win here. I thought that they pretty clearly were the better side when they faced Shakhtar Donetsk the last time as they finished with substantial edges in xG, shots and touches in the penalty area. That draw in Poland really should have been a win. Furthermore, Celtic are probably due to start scoring more here in the Champions League, considering they have created 5.5 xG in the previous four matches, but only found the back of the net twice. The opposite can be said for Shakhtar Donetsk, who have seven goals on 3.1 xG while also being outshot 88-33 in Champions League play. Six of those seven goals have come from inside the penalty area, despite only 15 shots on target. Celtic has dominated the Scottish Premiership, winning 10 of 11 matches this season, and they are a far better side than what they’ve shown so far in the Champions League. They definitely looked like the better side last time vs. Shakhtar Donetsk. Therefore, playing at home, I’ll call for them to get the full three points Tuesday. 10* |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -5 v. Blazers | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver. The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range. The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries. This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields. Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date. It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks. |
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10-24-22 | AFC Bournemouth v. West Ham United UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
West Ham is coming off a loss to Liverpool, but before that the Hammers had earned at least a point in six of seven fixtures including five in a row. The last two times they’ve failed to grab a point was a pair of 1-0 losses. They’ve now gone six matches in a row without conceding more than one goal. Bournemouth had its own rather stunning six-match unbeaten run going, but took their first loss under interim boss Gary O’Neil, falling 1-0 to Southampton last week. Any time a newly promoted side is able to find itself in the middle of the table, they should be happy. But Bournemouth has largely overachieved to this point as it ranks dead last (by a wide margin) in the Premier League in xG. West Ham is tied for fifth in goals allowed this season and there’s nothing phony about that as they are also top five in expected goals allowed and shots on target per 90 minutes. So it would not be a surprise if Bournemouth failed to score a goal in this match. But don’t look for West Ham to go wild scoring either. They have scored only nine goals in 11 EPL matches to this point. Just Wolves and Nottingham Forest have scored fewer. Bournemouth has failed to score a goal in six of its 11 EPL matches so far, including the last one. Back in September, they actually went four matches in a row without scoring a goal. I think this promises to be a rather “drab” affair. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-23-22 | Astros +120 v. Yankees | Top | 6-5 | Win | 120 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
Lance McCullers Jr. has the opportunity to close out the series vs. the Yankees in 4 straight games on Sunday. He has tossed just 8 games this season and has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of them. He didn't face the Yankees this season, always an advantage in the early going. He threw a gem against the Mariners in the last series, a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout. Now if he can just stay away from the bottle. Lefty Nestor Cortes is the Yankees' last hope. He face the Astros in June, allowing three runs over five innings, and is particularly good in Yankee Stadium. Cortes had two solid outings in the Cleveland series, but this will be his second start on short rest. There is unrest in the Yankees dugout, with players questioning Boone's decisions. The Yankees' big bats have done nothing against brilliant Astros' pitching, and a four game sweep does not seem outside of probability. Houston is still in a better position as far as pitching goes, and it is all smooth sailing under the wise hands of Dusty Baker. McCullers has an extra day's rest. It is the Astros' bats that have done the damage; the Yankees managed just 3 hits against 6 Astros pitchers on Saturday. Take the Astros, a small underdog, to finish the Yankees in four. |
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10-23-22 | Jets -1 v. Broncos | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week. Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season. They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone. Their run game has improved dramatically this season. Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 37 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven. The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB. The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos. The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games. Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed. The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer. It could be a tough game for him. The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower. Take the under on Sunday. 9*! |
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10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 58 m | Show |
The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott. Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record. They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed. They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78. |
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