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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-23 | Flyers v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
Buffalo played a typical Sabres-style game last time out, scoring 6 times and allowing 5 goals. They are 8-2 L10 and have potted 39 goals in those wins. They host the 6-4 Flyers on Monday, who were blown out by the Leafs on Sunday. With back to back games and travel, fatigue could be a factor for Philadelphia. The Flyers are below .500 on the road and are a below average defensive team. 7 of their last 10 game have gone over the total. They will run out a back up goalie against the Sabre's #1 offense and #2 power play. The Sabres have plenty of firepower, but still struggle on defense, allowing on average 3.4 goals against. I am wagering on the over for Monday's match-up. Look for the Sabres to light it up against a road-weary Flyers team. |
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01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The Clippers badly need to get back on track. They’ve lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in the last four games. The Hawks aren’t in any better shape as they’ve dropped six of eight amidst chemistry issues. As a three-point favorite, they were beaten by the Lakers on Friday and gave up 130 points. There’s seemingly always a question about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s statuses when you play the Clippers, but I like them regardless tonight. This will be just the second time in the last nine games that they get to play at home. Atlanta was down 70-49 at the half to the Lakers and is 7-13 on the road. Look for this to be a “get right” spot for LA. 10* |
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01-08-23 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
The Capitals whipped the Blue Jackets last week in Columbus, and now face them at home. The Blue Jackets are playing their 2nd game in two nights on Sunday. Columbus is appalling on the road at just 2-12 this year. The Capitals are a strong home team and will be much tougher to play against with the return of Backstrom and everyone's favorite, Tom Wilson. The Blue Jackets are not as fortunate, still with a very long list of injuries. Ranking 30th in both goals scored and PP, and 31st in goals allowed, they will have their hands full against the Capitals' top ten offense and defense. |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
The Seahawks let the season get away after that promising start, but all is not quite lost yet. A win against the Rams gives them a statistical chance. Seattle rallied last week, putting up 23 points against a tough Jets defense. Smith was solid again, and a little more diverse in his targets and RB Walker is finally back in form, off a pair of 100 yard games in his last two starts. Their defense has been the stumbling block but it has shown recent improvement against some tough competition in their last three weeks. At this point it is at least better than the Rams'. |
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01-08-23 | Niagara v. Manhattan +3 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Let’s head to the MAAC Sunday afternoon where Manhattan will look to get back on track hosting Niagara. The Jaspers have lost three straight, the last two coming at home. They were slight favorites (-2) to beat Canisius earlier in the week, but went down 64-57. I don’t see this team losing three in a row at home, so as a dog, they are my lone College Hoops play for Sunday.
Now Niagara comes in riding a four-game win streak, the last two coming as short underdogs. The Purple Eagles beat Rider and Fairfield to start 2023, the latter on the road. But just like I cannot see Manhattan losing three straight at home, I can’t see Niagara making it five wins in a row.
Let’s point out that Thursday’s win at Fairfield was an OT game for Niagara and they really benefited from horrible shooting by the opposition, who went 31.8% overall from the floor and 2 of 16 from three. I don’t see Manhattan shooting that poorly here.
There have not been many wins so far for the 4-10 Jaspers. But being underdogs here should lead to a sense of “disrespect” as I believe the home team feels it can certainly win this one.
Also worth pointing out that Niagara is the 3rd luckiest team in the country per KenPom. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less so far, which does not even include the overtime game on Thursday. The only other time that the Purple Eagles were road favorites this season, they lost outright to New Jersey Tech 62-53. Take the points here. (Probably won’t need them though). 10* |
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01-08-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -9 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
The Ravens, missing Lamar Jackson and other starters, travel to Cincinnati, to face Burrow and the mostly healthy Bengals. Taking the emotional unknown of last week's tragic event out of the game, this is not a situation that favors Baltimore. The Bengals are very much pass-first, in spite of a fine if underused RB in Mixon. While Baltimore is very tough against the run, the Ravens' pass defense is barely average this year, and while they've shown improvement vs the pass lately, the Ravens have not faced a top QB since the Jags. The Ravens can successfully press a QB, but Burrow is an old hand vs passer pressure, and the Bengals O line is much improved this year. |
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01-07-23 | Bruins -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 105 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
Here is a very good situation for a Big Bad Bruins win. Boston is 7-3 L10, but a fine 11-4 on the road this season. They catch the Sharks on the wrong end of a back to back, with Reimer who has struggled lately, in net. The Sharks are horrible at home with just 4 wins to date. They are languishing down in the cellar on defense and aren't much better on offense. The Bruins by comparison, with the best defense and PK in the league, are also #2 in goals scored and #4 on the power play. Ullmark should start and he is in the Vezina conversation for his season's play, not to mention super-sharp in recent action. Boston is a legitimate large favorite for Saturday, but with both offensive and defensive prowess, they are also a solid bet on the puck line. Take the Bruins to take on prisoners, winning and covering against the Sharks. |
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01-07-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
The Titans are on the road, facing a surging Jags team for all the marbles. While last week’s loss was more of a rest game, the Titans have stumbled almost unbelievably in their last 6 games, with the defense regressing almost everywhere but rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt. Compare to the Jags’ defense who have shown real improvement down the stretch. Points against totals are hugely better, and they are much tougher in the red zone and against the run. Even their passing game is improving, a bonus against the Titans poor pass offense. |
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01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Bad spot here for New Orleans, who is in the second game of a back to back without Zion Willamson and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans fought valiantly last night at home, but ultimately lost to the Nets 108-102 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.
Dallas had Friday off and should come out angry here after having their seven-game win streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Thursday when they were blown out here at home by the Celtics, 124-95.
It has to be very frustrating for the Pelicans to look at that final score from last night as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving miss a combined 32 shots for Brooklyn. NO had its own shooting woes in the second half, however, making just 2 of 12 threes. They finished the game at 39.8% overall.
While the Pelicans have been an excellent home team so far, they are below .500 on the road (7-10 SU) and this is not the situation to get back on track. The Mavericks were 29-9 ATS the previous two seasons when off a game like Thursday where they were held under 100 points. They haven’t been as profitable in that situation this season, but it’s still a good spot to jump on as Luka should have another big game. 10* |
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01-06-23 | Heat v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Suns are a bit of a mess right now due to Devin Booker being injured. The team has lost four straight. In the last two games, they’ve finished with only 83 and 88 points.
But all four of those losses came on the road. I know that when a team is playing its first home game following a long road trip, it’s usually not the best time to jump on board. However, the Suns should be very happy to be back at home where they are 14-5 this season.
Miami is at the end of a five-game road trip here. They’ve won two and lost two thus far. The last game saw the Heat lose to a Lakers team that did not have LeBron James or Anthony Davis. They let Dennis Schroder go for a season-high 32 points.
Mostly because of injuries, the Heat have underperformed this season. They are just a game above .500 and sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. But due to Phoenix’s recent woes and the short number, my guess is that most bettors will be on the road favorite here. I think that’s a mistake. The Suns almost won at Cleveland on Wednesday and that is not an easy place to play. (Cavs are 18-4 at home). They lost on a last second jumper by Evan Mobley. I think this is a good buy low spot on Phoenix, who isn’t a home dog very often. Miami is 7-18 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* |
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01-06-23 | Akron +3 v. Ball State | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Akron hasn’t had much success on the road this season, but the Zips have won six of seven overall and tonight I expect them to go into Ball State, and at the very least, cover the number.
Ball State has won six in a row themselves. The Cardinals opened MAC play by winning at Toledo, 90-83 as an 8.5 point underdog. Coming off a win like that is usually a good time to fade a team. I just can’t see BSU matching the kind of shooting we saw from them in the last game (52.5% overall, 11 of 22 from three).
The underdog has a big edge defensively in this game, ranking 103rd in efficiency while the favorite is just 235th in that department.
Akron has also had Ball State’s number, winning and covering all four meetings the last two seasons. Every win has been by at least nine points.
I just think that the better team is getting points in this one. Ball State is 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. |
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01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 220 | Top | 112-108 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Back on 12/21, the Raptors handed the Knicks a 113-106 loss at Madison Square Garden. New York came into that game on an 8-game win streak, then promptly lost its next five (including the game vs. Toronto). But the Knicks are now seemingly back on track with three straight wins and they’re back in the top six of the Eastern Conference.
Toronto came into that last meeting with the Knicks on a six-game losing streak. Fast forward to today and they are reeling yet again with losses in four out of their last five games. A massive rally Wednesday against Milwaukee (trailed by 21 with 3:50 to go) was ultimately in vain as the Raptors eventually lost in OT. They are now 3-10 L13 games.
As tempting as the points look here, the Knicks’ three straight victories have come at the expense of: Houston, San Antonio and a depleted Phoenix team.
I like the Under here as - even with OT - the Raptors’ last game only saw 205 combined points scored. They have not shot the ball well of late (42.9% L5 games) and the Knicks don’t shoot well when they are on the road (43.8%). Pascal Siakam scored 52, a career-high for him, in that previous meeting. That won’t happen again. The Under is 11-5 in the Knicks’ previous 16 road games. 10* |
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01-06-23 | Predators v. Capitals -154 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Nashville knocked off the 'Canes last night, leaning on Saros' monster 67 save performance. He won't be in the net tonight, as Preds' are on the road against against a tough Capitals team. Washington, now 7-3 L10, also played last night, winning easily. They are at home tonight where they are an impressive 12-5 this season. They shut out Nashville in the only other time they faced the Predators. Nashville is just .500 on the road, and 5 -5 in their last ten games. They struggle to score this season, among the bottom-dwellers in goals-for and on the Power Play, while are exactly average on defense. The Capitals are a top ten offense and defense, and have an excellent PK. In the tale of the fill-in goalies, the Capitals have a decided edge. Lindgren has been sharp, while playing on a regular basis. The Preds' Lankinen has played just twice in the last month, allowing 5 goals in each appearance. It isn't just the goal-tender who will be tired after a 60+shot onslaught. Look for the Capitals, with no travel today, to be the fresher of the two teams. Take the ageless Ovechkin and the Capitals to continue their success at home and win today. |
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01-05-23 | Bruins -151 v. Kings | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The Bruins and Kings clash in LA tonight, meeting for the second time this year. The Kings, a very good home team this year, beat the Bruins in December. Boston will be looking for revenge tonight, and are super-strong on the road this year at 10-4. Boston, with the 2nd most goals-scored and the 6th ranked power play, face a Kings team whose defensive stats (23rd goals against, 28th PK)are well below average. Boston is very tough on defense as well, 1st in goals-against, and PK against an average Kings offense. Ullmark is the likely starter for the Bruins. He is arguably the best net-minder this season, and is both good and consistent. Quick is expected for the Kings tonight. Quick may be showing his age this year, struggling for the season and in recent games as well. |
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01-05-23 | Pacific v. San Diego -6 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Two teams looking to make their mark in the West Coast Conference square off late Thursday as San Diego welcomes in Pacific. San Diego (8-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) is off a big win as 11-point underdogs at San Francisco. This will be the Toreros first time playing at the Jenny Craig Pavilion since an 84-58 win over UC San Diego back on December 12th. They went 2-3 SU/ATS on the recently completed road swing. Pacific (8-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) is also coming off an outright win as they beat Loyola Marymount 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog. But that was at home. I don’t see a second straight upset win in the cards for the Tigers. San Diego is averaging over 80 points/game at home this season. They are #59 in the country in offensive efficiency as per KenPom. The defensive numbers aren’t great for the Toreros, but I also don’t think Pacific can take advantage. This is a Tigers team that lost to a non-DI school (CS-East Bay) at home last month. They also lost by 20 at home to BYU. Lay the points here. 8* |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
On Tuesday, the Celtics were blown out in the most shocking way imaginable, 150-117 by Oklahoma City. It was the most points allowed in a game by the franchise since 1979! It was also the Celtics’ second loss in a row. I played against them on New Year’s Day when they started this four-game road trip with a 123-111 loss at Denver. Despite basically being fully healthy, the Celtics have dropped five of nine overall. But they are still the best team in basketball in my view and their reputation still carries a lot of weight in the marketplace as they are favored here, on the road, over a Dallas team that’s on a seven-game win streak. These teams met back in November, in Boston, and the Celtics won 125-112 as 5.5-point favorites. You know we’re going to get an inspired showing from the Celtics after they got humiliated by one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. 10* |
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01-05-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. St Francis NY | Top | 76-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Last month, Fairleigh Dickinson gave a truly horrific effort against Richmond, actually trailing at the half 42-9! The Knights then lost their next game, 82-73 to Queens U, one of the new D-I programs this season. But they battled back and posted consecutive wins to end 2022, first beating Merrimack 71-63 and then Centenary 99-50.
Certainly, those wins won’t impress anyone, but it is not as if Wednesday’s opposition, St. Francis (NY), is anything to be concerned about. This is not exactly the marquee matchup for Thursday College Hoops. FDU is rated #328 at KenPom while SFNY is #348.
FDU is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, but has the edge offensively and I think their tempo (70th fastest in the country) will bother St. Francis.
In their last game, St. Francis lost to Central Connecticut State, another of the worst teams in the country. Actually, they didn’t just lose, they got beat by 22! The fact that this is a revenge game for FDU (five straight losses to St. Francis) puts them over the top for me. Homecourt advantage won’t mean much on a Thursday afternoon. 10* |
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01-04-23 | Hawks v. Kings OVER 243.5 | Top | 120-117 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Expect plenty of points Wednesday night when the Hawks and Kings match up. Last night, Sacramento scored 117 pts for the 7th time in the last 10 games as they beat Utah by two. At home, the Kings are averaging 122.3 points/game this year. That’s the good news. But the bad news is they also allow 118.9 points/game here. Atlanta is horrible defensively. Yes, the 143-141 loss to Golden State Monday was a double overtime game. But this is a team that has also allowed 129 to Indiana and 130 to the Lakers in regulation over their last four games. The Over is 13-5 this season when the Hawks hit the road. The Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but it’s time for an Over. They only combined for 221 points in a November matchup, but neither team shot all that well and the Kings were 30% from three-point range. 8* |
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01-04-23 | Lightning v. Wild UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
The Lightning /Wild match-up pits two resurgent teams with very similar recent performances. Both teams are 8-2 L10, and both have given up 2 goals or less in those eight wins. It is literally years since these two teams met, so there is no recent history as a guide. The Lighting have a decided edge on offense, but are playing their second game in two nights. Both teams have solid defense, playing in shutdown mode of late. The Lightning will very likely start Vasilevskiy, having started Elliott against the weaker Black Hawks in Game one on Tuesday. Sporting a .921 save % and a 2.42 Goals Against average, he has been exceptional in recent games. Gustavsson is projected to start for the Wild. He has also been very good in a larger than fill-in role for Minnesota this year. Injuries are not really a concern for either team at the moment. The under is 8-2 in the Wilds’ last 10 games, and 3-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 4. With two very good net-minders, two solid defenses, and a tired Lightning offense another low scoring game seems likely. Wager on another under on Wednesday. |
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01-04-23 | Spurs v. Knicks -9.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
After winning and covering eight straight, the Knicks promptly dropped five in a row. But now they’re pointed back in the right direction after back to back blowout wins. They should make it three in a row tonight when they host the Spurs. They may not have the worst record in the league, but no team has been outscored by more than the Spurs have been. In their last game, they went down by 36 at the hands of Brooklyn. The Spurs never led at any points in the game. The Knicks outscored Houston 81-53 over the final three quarters on Saturday, then led by as many as 32 against Phoenix on Monday. I don’t expect their to be any kind of letdown tonight, considering NY will be playing with revenge for a 122-115 loss that occurred in San Antonio last week. In that game, Julius Randle scored 41 but the Spurs shot 51.1% as a team. Since then, the Knicks have gotten back to playing outstanding defense, giving up just 88 and 83 points the L2 games. The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league and are 28th on offense. Lay it. 10* |
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01-04-23 | Northern Iowa v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Four games into conference play and Valparaiso is still looking for its first Missouri Valley win. The Crusaders host Northern Iowa on Wednesday. I sense there will be a real sense of desperation here for the home team and thus will back them plus the points. Valpo is coming off a dreadful shooting night, one in which it made just 29.5% of its FG attempts against Indiana State. They ended up losing 68-50. Coming off an embarrassing effort such as that, at home no less, you’ve got to expect an inspired effort here. Northern Iowa is playing its second straight true road game, the first time that situation has come up for them in 2022-23. The Panthers won at Illinois State on New Year’s Eve, 66-60, a slight upset as they came into that game as one-point underdogs. Prior to that win, they’d dropped four of six. This is a game flying under the radar on Wednesday’s CBB slate, but again, I like the situation for Valpo, who had scored 70 or more in each of its previous four home games. The Crusaders are due for better shooting after that abysmal last performance. They are 13-5 ATS when coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less. UNI, on the other hand, is 4-10 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 or less. That includes 0-4 this season. Take the points. 10* |
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01-03-23 | Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 138.5 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Two 12-1 teams meet Tuesday in Big XII action as Texas hosts Kansas State. While these teams may have the same won-loss record, they are not viewed as equals. Texas is #6 at KenPom while Kansas State is #45. So I’m not surprised that the Longhorns opened as a double digit favorite.
The Chris Beard situation makes Texas a tricky team to handicap right now, but I still expect them to continue to play excellent defense. Their last five games have all gone Over, but there was an overtime game mixed in there (1st game w/o Beard) and the Longhorns scored 97 and 100 themselves in two others.
Kansas State is decent enough defensively (38th in efficiency) to keep the Texas offensive attack in check.
But worrisome for the Wildcats is the fact they were down 11 to West Virginia at halftime of their last game. They rallied for an overtime win, 82-76, but that was at home. At the end of regulation, the score of that Kansas State-West Virginia game was 66-66. I really think we’ve got an inflated total on our hands here and will play the Under. 10* |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Wizards upset the Bucks as 2.5-point underdogs on New Year’s Day, winning 118-95. But that upset comes with a giant asterisk. The Bucks were short handed for that game as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out due to knee soreness. Jrue Holiday also missed the game with an illness and Khris Middleton didn’t play either.
Both Giannis and Holiday are expected to play in the rematch tonight. I’m expecting a big Bucks’ win at home.
The Bucks have dropped five of six, so they could use an impressive performance. The Wizards are 5-0 SU/ATS in their L5 games, but remember that it wasn’t that long ago they were on a 10-game losing streak.
With Giannis and Holiday on the floor, the Bucks have a +8.9 net rating and are a much better team defensively. I’m aware Washington may get Bradley Beal back, but when these teams are close to full strength, it’s a clear mismatch for Milwaukee. When coming off an upset loss as a favorite, the Bucks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. The Wizards’ have allowed an average of only 103.8 points during the five-game win streak, but that’s well below their season average of 112.4 and I’d expect them to regress at the defensive end sooner rather than later. Lay the points here. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Knights are on the road to face a disappointing Avalanche team, with both sides seriously depleted by injuries. The Avs have lost three straight since the break, with all games going over the total. The good news for Colorado is that MacKinnon is back. Their offense, ranked 25th, certainly needs a boost. Colorado plays at home tonight, but aren't nearly as invincible a home squad as in seasons past. Georgiev is the likely starter. He has not been at all sharp since Christmas, allowing 14 goals on 93 shots in his last three games. He was pulled in the loss against the Leafs last time out. The Golden Knights' should start Thompson (.915 SV %) in net. His numbers have tumbled a bit as well in recent games. The Knights are just 1-2 since Christmas, but have been tough to beat on the road at 14-3 this season. They are very depleted at center and defense tonight. The Knights are off a shoot out 5-4 win, but will miss Eichel today. Goal-tending has bee a recent concern for the two teams, and both are very weak on defensemen tonight. I am not confident of a winner in this match-up but do believe the game will surpass the total, now set at six. Take Vegas and Colorado to go over. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
In a tough Western Conference, the T’wolves really need to get going. Right now, they are on the WRONG side of the cut line when it comes to the play-in tournament. Not even being among the West’s Top 10 is certainly a bit of a shock, considering where this team was projected to be coming into the season.
Tonight, Minnesota hosts Denver, who is coming off a big win over Boston last night. I played the Nuggets Sunday as they easily covered as 1.5-point underdogs, winning 123-111. Nikola Jokic had yet another triple double (30-12-12) in a game that featured a 30+ minute delay due to a defective rim.
Denver is in 1st place in the West with a 24-12 record. But coming off last night’s win, this sets up as a letdown spot for them. It will be only their fourth time playing in a back to back this year. The Nuggets are also 0-2 ATS this season coming off a SU win where they were listed as the underdog.
Things may not be looking good in Minnesota as the team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games. They lost here at home to the Pistons on Saturday, 116-104. But, because of that, there is no doubt as to which side should come out more motivated Monday night. The T’wolves went 3-1 against the Nuggets last year and have lost back to back home games only one time so far this season. Give me the points. 10* |
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01-02-23 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Both teams are coming off close losses on the road to open Big XII play. In each instance, the loss occurred in the state of Kansas. West Virginia lost to Kansas State 82-76 in overtime (pick ‘em game) while Oklahoma State lost 69-67 (as 10-point underdogs) at Kansas.
The difference between these teams is that WVU is on an 0-3 ATS losing streak while OK State is 3-0 ATS its last three games. I look for these streaks to end Monday.
WVU had won four straight games before losing in Manhattan. Oklahoma State is only 3-3 SU over its last six games. I don’t think that the Mountaineers should be underdogs here, even on the road.
With this game likely to be pretty low-scoring (total is currently 139.5 - and it wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed Under), that’s just another reason to take the points. I’ve got West VIrginia rated as the better team. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has been a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Purdue v. LSU UNDER 54.5 | Top | 7-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense. Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8* |
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01-01-23 | Celtics v. Nuggets +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Boston ended a seven-game homestand on a four-game win streak. They beat Minnesota, Milwaukee, Houston and the Clippers. They’ve had two days off to prepare for this New Year’s trip to Denver.
As good as the Celtics are, the Nuggets are worthy adversaries. They’ve won 9 of 11 and one of those losses was by a single point.
At home, Denver is 13-3 and outscoring visitors by nine points per game.
When these teams played in Boston on November 11th, the Celtics made 16 three-pointers and shot 55% overall. That will not be repeated. Jokic continues to be ridiculous for the Nuggets, making 50% of shots in 26 straight games. 10* |
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01-01-23 | 49ers -9.5 v. Raiders | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
The Raiders have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year, and are now at home to the best defense in the league with a fill-in QB. The 49ers have several reasons to keep their foot on the gas. They have an outside chance at a bye week in the playoffs and they need to give their young and promising QB all the experience they can before the playoffs. Vegas has seen their points-scored drop by 5 in their last three games and by thirteen last week. They lost to the Rams and Steelers with a total of 26 points while Carr was at QB. Now with an untried Stidham under center, the prospects are bleak for point production. Stidham will have to face a healthy Bosa and the rest of the 49ers headhunters. Carr was sacked 3 times last week, and it could go up on Sunday. The Raiders real hope is elite running back Jacobs, but he will have his hands full against the top rushing defense in the league. Jacobs was limited to under three yards a carry last week. |
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01-01-23 | Cornell v. Dartmouth +8.5 | Top | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
I’m taking Dartmouth here, despite their five consecutive losses. Three of the five have been by single digits and the last four on the road. The Big Green now return home for the first time in a month, hosting a Cornell team that’s 10-3 and on a four-game win streak. Line is inflated here.
When off three consecutive SU losses, Dartmouth is 8-1 ATS. That includes covering the last two games.
As you may have surmised, the Big Green haven’t shot well during the 5-game skid. I’d say 35.6% is abnormally poor though. We should see that number start to go up at home though as they have a 49.5 FG% here for the year. They also are holding teams to 39.9%
Yes, Cornell can score and is very good at the offensive end. But they are not sound defensively, yielding 78.7 points/game away from home. They are 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
While I’m not so confident to predict an outright win here for the Big Green, they should easily cover at home. Take the points. 10* |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 12 m | Show |
The Giants are home to the Colts in Week 17. It is a very significant game for NY, and they likely couldn't have a better opponent. The Colts are going nowhere fast, with an indifferent game last week and essentially no offense. Foles, with very limited time with the team, was about as expected; 3 points and a trio of picks. On a short week for the Colts, don't expect huge improvements from him. |
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01-01-23 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 39 h 12 m | Show |
Who would believe the Jaguars as a potential play off team a year ago? The Jags now face the Texans on the road, hoping to improve on a 4-1 recent record. Lawrence has the Jags' offense working very well, with a passer rating of over 100 in 5 of 7 games. Last week was not one of them, but he still played a smart effective game with no picks, against a very tough Jets pass defense. While we have seen more of a pass-first offense lately, the Jags, with Etienne and Robinson (and Lawrence chipping in), could go back to running the ball on Sunday. Houston's rush defense is a mere shadow of their pass defense, and is 32nd in the league in rush yards allowed. Lawrence has been protected well this season but will face some pressure from the Texans, who have had 4 sacks on average over their last three games. The pass defense is the Texans' best (some would say only) asset, but Lawrence maneuvered around an even better one last week. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 62 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season.
Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.
Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though.
As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency. Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10* |
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12-31-22 | Knicks -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 108-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
The Knicks are having all sorts of problems at the moment as they’ve dropped five in a row and are 0-4-1 ATS that same stretch. But they get a “new year’s present” tonight in the form of a matchup with the sorry Rockets. It wasn’t all that long ago that the Knicks were on an eight-game win streak. It’s not like they’re being blown out during this losing streak. All five losses have been by seven points or fewer. One was a buzzer beater while another was an overtime loss to Dallas that required a Herculean effort from Luka Doncic. Houston is unlikely to provide much resistance for a Knicks team that is desperate to get back on track. The Rockets have dropped seven of eight, the last two by a combined 39 points. The Knicks are 22-7 ATS their last 29 road games. Look for them to tighten up at the defensive end and cover this small number. Julius Randle had 41 points and 11 rebounds in the last game and is capable of carrying the offensive load. 10* |
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12-31-22 | San Diego State -3.5 v. UNLV | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State, the presumed favorite to win the Mountain West this year, has been termed “disappointing” thus far, even though the Aztecs have a fine record and their defensive efficiency rating (13th) is among the best in the country.
I had to settle for a ‘push’ when I played the Aztecs, as 16-point favorites, against Air Force earlier in the week. This time, as they are set to hit the conference road for the first time, we’re getting a far lower number and one that I believe they’ll cover easily.
UNLV is in a bit of freefall as the Runnin’ Rebels have lost two of three following a 10-0 start. Both losses were close, 75-73 to San Francisco and 75-72 to San Jose State, the latter being a game that went to OT. But the Rebels are a team that struggles to score in the half court. That will be a big problem here.
San Diego State should control tempo this afternoon. I think UNLV struggles at both ends of the court here. Since it’s last loss, SDSU has won three straight by 16+ points. Just think the line is a little low in this one. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-31-22 | Predators v. Golden Knights -145 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The Predators played well on Thursday, feasting on the Ducks, but now travel to Vegas to face a very different opponent. The 6 goal outburst was unusual for the 3-7 Preds, who are just 1-6 vs over .500 teams in recent games. They are thirtieth ranked in goals scored this season, and not much better on the power play. They face a Knights team that has lost 2 straight on the road but has had a couple of days to regroup. The Vegas Golden Knights are close to top ten on offense and defense, and hold a considerable edge in play over Nashville. Nashville has not thrived on the road, and now face an early turn-around in a back to back situation with their back-up goalie in net. Lankinen has had some good performances this season, but his last appearance over two weeks ago was not one of them, giving up 5 goals. He'll face the Knights' young net-minder Thompson, with a solid .916 goals-against avg. this year and a spoiled shutout in his last game. Vegas has been doing everything in twos lately; two wins, two losses, two wins, two losses. Time to get back in the win column for New Years eve! Take a better Golden Knights team to rebound and win at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington State | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
After a couple of hiccups against Illinois and Baylor, certainly excusable losses (especially since they were played on a neutral floor), UCLA has rattled off eight consecutive victories, most of them by double digits. I’ll look for them to continue rolling tonight when they visit the Palouse. Washington State has dropped two in a row for the fourth time this season. The Cougars are just 5-8 on the season. Now, the three previous times they’ve been off back to back losses previously, they’ve delivered a win. But those wins came against Eastern Washington, Northern Kentucky and George Washington. In every one of those games, they were the favorites. UCLA has dominated this Pac 12 rivalry through the years, winning 40 of the past 47 matchups. The eighth ranked Bruins have eight wins by 10 or more over the past month, including beating Kentucky (in New York) and a 27-point thrashing of Maryland in a true road game. This should be a cakewalk by comparison. The biggest problem for Wazzu in this game is that they are turning the ball over on 21.2% of all possessions, which is 292nd nationally. UCLA excels at turning its opponents over, doing so on 25.3% of all possessions, 11th best in the country. Lay the points here. 10* |
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12-30-22 | Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Our first New Year’s Six Bowl Game is a matchup of top 10 teams, but #6 Tennessee and #7 Clemson are in drastically different places heading into the Orange Bowl.
Tennessee’s season came crashing down with a 63-38 loss to South Carolina in the second to last game. Not only was that a humiliating result, but it cost the Volunteers a shot at the College Football Playoff. Adding injury to insult, QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury. In addition to not having Hooker here, the Vols have seen their two top receivers opt out and they will be without offensive coordinator Alex Golesh, who is now the head coach at USF.
Clemson has some opt outs as well. But the big news for them is the switch at QB. Cade Klubnik is now the starter after an impressive ACC Championship Game performance where he completed 20 of 24 passes for 279 yards, sending DJ Uiagalelei packing. All of a sudden, an 11-2 season that was “disappointing” (by this program’s standard) has renewed enthusiasm.
Hooker’s replacement is Joe Milton and you can look for him to struggle against what remains an outstanding Clemson defense (even with the opt outs). Milton is simply not very accurate on deep balls and was only 11 of 21 for 147 yards against Vanderbilt.
I think Clemson is the team that “wants” this game more. The Tigers have covered 11 of their last 14 bowl appearances and are 20-7-1 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents under Dabo Swinney. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-30-22 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Raptors are just 2-8 straight up their last 10 games after losing 119-106 here at home to the Grizzlies last night. Things haven’t gone much better against the spread for the NBA’s lone Canadian franchise as they are 3-7 at the betting window in that same 10-game stretch.
The Suns are in the middle of a six-game road trip and things haven’t been going all that well for them either. Wednesday saw the team go down 127-102 in Washington. That was the fourth loss in five games for Phoenix, who is 4-9 SU L13.
I like this game to stay Under the total. Yes, the Suns’ last three games have all gone Over as have the Raptors’ last four. But that’s been “baked” into this number.
When playing in the second game of a back to back, Raptors’ games have averaged just over 216 points. Additionally, Phoenix is dealing with multiple injuries at the moment. The most notable being Devin Booker. Playing a fourth straight time on the road is hardly a likely time to find your offensive rhythm. 10* |
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12-30-22 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -169 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The Hurricanes, after some shaky play earlier in the season, are tearing up the league lately. They are going for 10 straight wins vs the Panthers, who have fallen by the wayside somewhat this season. Florida thrashed the Habs last night, but are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and aren't successful at all (1-7) vs. teams that are over .500. These teams have played just once this season, with Florida winning. The Panthers have owned the 'Canes in their recent match ups, but that will change tonight. The Hurricanes are shutting teams down lately with a fourth-ranked defense. Florida is 21st by comparison. The Canes are dominant at home. The Panthers played last night and will likely start Knight in net. He has barely played lately, with just 2 games since Dec. 6 and with save %'s of .731 and .800 in those appearances. It will likely be Kochetkov in net for the 'Canes. The young goalie has filled in admirably in a back up roll for Carolina, and is 10-1-4, with a 1.94 Goals against avg. Carolina will be motivated tonight, and not just because it is the Panthers. !0 straight wins would be a team record. Florida is a poor team on the road, and no doubt their arms will tired from all those goals scored last night. (I'm kidding) Give me the Panthers at home to break the record. The Hurricanes, a favorite, will win. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs -10.5 | Top | 114-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Dallas should be in line for a big win tonight when they host Houston, who is one of the worst teams in the league and just 1-6 SU in its L7 games. After being such a disappointment at the betting window for the first month of the season, we’ve seen better results from the Mavs recently. They have won four in a row including a 126-121 victory over the Knicks on Tuesday. In that game, Luka Doncic turned in the first 60-20-10 game (points-rebounds-assists) in league history. Three of those four recent wins for the Mavs have been by six points or less. One of them was in Houston 112-106 as seven-point favorites. Doncic had 50-8-10 in that game. Doncic may not repeat those individual numbers tonight, but the Rockets are playing their third road game in four nights and are just 4-14 on the road this year. I am expecting a blowout. The Rockets just lost by 24 in Boston two nights ago. This is a team with a bottom three offensive and defensive rating. Lay it! 10* |
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12-29-22 | Cowboys -10.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
I am holding my nose this week and taking the Cowboy against a wounded and slumping Titans side. We don't know who will actually play for the Titans in a somehow meaningless game for their playoff hopes. For the Cowboys, Thursday's game is a fine chance to press for a play-off bye week, and an opportunity to work out some bugs in their recent inabilities to defend. There are some significant issues in the Cowboys' defense. Their tidal surge of passer pressure (3rd in the league) has ebbed alarmingly in their last three weeks, exposing some real problems. Their passing yards-allowed has climbed by a full 100yds L3, and is actually worse than the 31st ranked Titans' figures over the last three games. Their rushing yards allowed did improve in their last game, but their abilities against the run have not impressed in the second half of the season. Luckily for the Cowboys, the much injured Titans are in no position to take advantage. Tannehill, a very under-rated QB, is out and Henry, who is questionable, may well be rested. The Titans' pass attack was pitiful last week, and the Cowboys' passer rushers should have their way against a poor Titans' pass defense. |
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12-29-22 | Red Wings v. Sabres -155 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Buffalo has won 4 straight and have had an extended rest due to snow. They are at home to the Red Wings, who play their second game in two nights. The Sabres won 4 straight before the break, and for a team that struggles on defense, held teams to stingy 2 goals or less in those games. There is nothing wrong with the Sabres' offense. With 18 goals in their last four games, they have the top offense and 2nd ranked PP this year. Anderson, now 41, has been a stand-out in net with an impressive .922 Save % on a defensively challenged team. Detroit are 22nd ranked on defense and will be down to their second-string goal-tender. Nedeljkovic has struggled this season and hasn't played since Dec.8. Can you spell RUSTY? |
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12-29-22 | Iowa v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Many will view this as a “bounce back” or “get right” game for Iowa after they suffered an inexplicable 92-83 loss to Eastern Illinois last week, a game where the Hawkeyes were 31-point home favorites. I am far less convinced that any such “bounce back” takes place. Nebraska is a team that has already taken Purdue, the class of the Big 10, into overtime this year. That game was played right in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers might be considered towards the bottom of the conference pecking order, but they are still a respectable 89th in the country over at KenPom. Iowa is still soft defensively, ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. So Nebraska should be able to put up points here. Particularly on the inside as Iowa lets teams shoot over 50% from inside the arc. For the season, 54% of the Cornhuskers’ FG attempts are two-pointers. Overall, Iowa has lost four of seven since a 5-0 start. Something to keep in mind is that Eastern Illinois had just one D-I win prior to stunning the Hawkeyes. That’s a very concerning result if you’re Fran McCaffery. Nebraska has balanced scoring with six players averaging between 9 and 14 points/game. Five players scored in double figures in the last game, a 75-65 win over Queens. Take the points in this Big 10 matchup. 10* |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse OVER 44 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.
This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim.
The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard.
On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State -16 | Top | 55-71 | Push | 0 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
At 9-4 overall, Air Force is a lot better than usual this year. The Flyboys have even covered seven in a row. But this is a spot to sell high on the Falcons as they face San Diego State, the class of the Mountain West.
The Aztecs aren’t defending as well this year as we’re accustomed to seeing, but are still 14th in the country in efficiency and that’s good enough for me. They should have beaten Arkansas (blew a double digit lead) and also have a win over Ohio State on the non-conference slate.
The offense has been better for SDSU as well and that’s while not shooting all that well from three. Air Force is due for some serious regression when it comes to three-point defense (opponents only hitting 24% against them) so this is a game I’ve targeted for the Aztecs to get hot from deep.
So far, Air Force has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. San Diego State will be the best team they’ve faced yet. This number will scare some away, but not me as the Aztecs have won their last two games by a total of 50 points. They are also 7-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +18.0. Lay it. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Nets -5 v. Hawks | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Atlanta seemed to be in prime position for a win heading into Indiana last night. But they lost 129-114. If the Hawks can’t beat the Pacers, then I don’t see how they stand much of a chance vs. a Nets team that’s won nine straight while covering the spread in six of its last seven games. While one could make the argument that there’s not a ton of value in laying this number with Brooklyn, on the road, Atlanta has been a terrible team to bet on of late. The Hawks are 6-14 ATS the last 20 games and have failed to cover by an average of 4.7 points/game, the worst mark in the league during that time. Another potential problem for Atlanta is that Trae Young left last night’s game with an ankle injury. The Hawks were already missing two other starters - Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter. This is not a team you want to back right now. As for the Nets, five of their last nine wins have come on the road, including 125-117 at Cleveland Monday night. The Cavs are not an easy team to beat, especially at home. But the Nets hung 125 points on what had been the league’s most efficient defense this year. Atlanta is far worse at defending than Cleveland. Brooklyn is leading the league in FG% and 3-point FG%. Kevin Durant has scored at least 25 points each of the last 13 times he’s faced Atlanta while Kyrie Irving is averaging 28-5-5 over his L10 games. Lay the number here. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas OVER 68.5 | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there. But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call. The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
The uncertain status of QB John Rhys Plumlee makes this handicap a bit difficult, but UCF is certainly not the play given the uncertainty and Duke is a team that really improved throughout 2022 and should be fired up to be here in the Military Bowl (played in Annapolis, MD).
The Blue Devils won five ACC games this year. That’s after winning none last year. This is the program’s first bowl since 2018, meaning the first for virtually every current player. On the other side, UCF had higher aspirations for the season than this game. The line move reflects the respective motivations.
Losing to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game cost the Knights a shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. They come into the bowl on a three-game ATS losing streak. There was an outright loss to Navy and they only beat USF by 7.
All of Duke’s losses this year were by one score, so they could have finished better than 8-4 and even been in the ACC Title Game. The three conference losses were by a total of eight points. Duke QB Riley Leonard accounted for the third most touchdowns in the entire FBS (31 - 20 passing + 11 rushing). This is an offense that can run the ball effectively. So can UCF, but Plumlee not being 100%/possibly out would hurt them. There’s no opt-outs for Duke, who will be at full strength and that should give them the edge over a possibly disinterested UCF team. 10* |
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12-27-22 | Wild v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
The Winnipeg Jets return from the break at home, where they are a fine 12-5 this season. The Wild, on a 6-1 run, are less impressive on the road, 8-6 so far. The Wild are just average on offense, but are certainly over-achieving on defense, limiting opposing offenses to just 6 goals total in those wins. Both of their goaltenders have been sharp in net. Fleurie has underwhelmed until recently, but was very very sharp leading up to the break. The Jets are playing a much more disciplined and defensively-responsible style of hockey under new coach Bowness. They are 4th-ranked in goals-against to date, and a strong fifth on the Penalty Kill. #1 goaltender Hellebuyck, bouncing back from an off year in 2021, is Vezina-good this season. The Jets and Wild are both pretty average on offense, but have both been stingy in the goals-against recently. Both teams have top-rated and competitive veteran net-minders, so perhaps we will see a little extra rivalry in goal. the Under has been THE main feature for both teams lately; 6 of 7 in Wild games , and 6 straight for the Jets. Here is a trend I don't want to buck. Take the Jets and Wild to go under the total again on Tuesday. |
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12-27-22 | Clippers v. Raptors -5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
The Clippers had absolutely zero business winning last night’s game in Detroit, let alone covering the spread. Down 14 with 3:34 left, LA appeared left for dead, but instead somehow rallied to force overtime where they’d go on to win 142-131. They were 5.5 point favorites.
I will look to fade LA again here, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. A second night of a back to back after an OT game where they rallied just seems like a bad situation all around. The Clippers remain just 9-8 on the road and don’t play particularly good defense.
Toronto hasn’t played since before Christmas when they upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland (not easy to do), 118-107 as a 5-point dog. It was a perfect 3-0 ATS road trip for the Raptors, which included another outright win where they snapped the Knicks’ eight-game win streak. The only SU loss on the trip was by three, in overtime, at Philadelphia (who has been the hottest team in the league). Back to the Clippers, they have lost five of the seven times they’ve played in the second night of a back to back this year. 10* |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
This number is down to -7 and I think it’s time to hit Memphis, who should be favored by double digits here against Utah State in the First Responder Bowl, playing in Gerald J Ford Stadium (home of SMU) in Dallas, TX.
The venue is familiar to Memphis as this is where they played their last regular season game, which ended up being a 34-31 loss to SMU. That was one of three losses by a field goal or less for the Tigers, who went 0-4 in one-score games this season. That’s pretty unlucky.
Utah State was last seen suffering the worst beat of this, or any other, College Football season. They were on the verge of being Boise State outright, but then fell apart and ended up not even covering as 17-point underdogs. But close calls mostly went the Aggies way this season; they were 4-0 SU in one-score games.
Close game records aside; Memphis is the much better football team here. I’ve got Utah State rated as one of the very worst teams in a bowl this year. Memphis will be motivated to win as they want to avoid their first losing season since ‘13. As a favorite, the Tigers are 6-1 this year and are winning by an average of 20 points/game. The Utah State offense is going to be without its two top running backs due to opt out and injury. They will struggle to move the ball while Memphis should have no problem cashing in against an Aggies’ defense that is 94th in points per drive allowed when opponents get inside the 40-yard line. Lay the points in this one. 10* |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
The Chargers, who still have a shot at a wild card spot, travel to meet up with a struggling Colts team, now finished as far as the postseason. The Colts’ strength has been their defense, but last week’s 2nd half debacle follows a 54 points- allowed effort to the Cowboys, neither looking like an elite defensive performance. 3 Fumbles, 11 penalties and 426 yards-against last week does not look like a team with it’s heart in the game. Coach Saturday’s solution? Replace the quarterback with Foles, who has about three days experience with the offense. Add the loss of Jonathon Taylor, who has driven the Colts’ offense, and you have a recipe for failure. The Chargers don’t run much but Herbert and Co. have put up over more than 300 passing yards on average in the last three games. Perhaps, as we have seen with many pass-centric teams in the late season, the Chargers will be running at the the Colts' average run defense. Other than last week, Herbert doesn’t usually throw the ball away. He is 2nd in completion % and passing yards this season. The Chargers' very average rush defense is at least a little better against the run lately, holding the Titans to 127 rushing yards and just 1 TD on the ground. They’ve been respectable and improving against the pass, land have limited teams to just 19 points overall in their last three games. The Chargers are healthier and starting to show what they are capable late in the season. I am not convinced the Colts will show up and put in a full effort after the poor showing of the last two weeks. LA has the momentum and the need for a win. Chargers to win and cover. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 142-131 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
If you’re thinking that this line looks a little “short” or even “scary,” the first thing you need to be aware of is that Kawhi Leonard is not taking the court tonight for the Clippers (due to injury management).
The Clippers are only 8-8 on the road this season and coming off a deflating loss where they blew a 20-point lead at Philadelphia.
Now it’s true the Pistons have the worst record in the NBA and are on a five-game losing streak. But this team generally plays hard. They are 9-3 ATS so far this season when they are on a losing streak of three or more games.
Playing on exactly two days rest, the Clippers are 0-3 ATS. They are 6-23 ATS in that situation the last three seasons. If you can believe it, the Pistons have a superior offensive rating compared to the Clippers. Without Leonard, expect the road team to struggle. 8* |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.
BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.
Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games.
The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks!
BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* |
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12-25-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
I’ll start by pointing out that this is a revenge game for the Grizzlies, who were eliminated by the Warriors (in six games) in last season’s Western Conference semifinal.
Golden State would go on to win its fourth NBA title in eight years last June. But things have not gone well so far this season. They are just 15-18 on the season and sit in 11th place in the Western Conference.
The biggest news for this game is the continued absence of Steph Curry. Andrew Wiggins (groin) is another player dealing with an injury and his status is questionable. Though they’ve had three days off, this is not a great spot for the Warriors, who are playing at home for the first time since a 1-5 SU/ATS swing out East. Generally, it’s a good idea to fade teams in their first game back from a long trip.
It doesn’t help that the Warriors’ defense has fallen off a cliff this year. They are 21st in defensive efficiency, which is not at all encouraging when facing a Memphis team that now has Desmond Bane back in the lineup and just hung 125 in a blowout win at Phoenix on Friday. Remembering last season’s playoff exit, the Grizzlies will be looking to make a “statement” here. They are back at full strength while the Warriors aren’t even close to that. Currently tied for the best record in the West, the Grizz are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the points with the much better team on X-mas. 10* |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
The Broncos are in LA to take on the Rams on Christmas day. Who gets the black stuff gift-wrapped under the tree? My bet is the Rams, and here is why. The Broncos are top five on defense, tough to play against in all areas. The Rams have a QB with 3 weeks experience and a suspect track record up against a very good pass defense. with good passer pressure stats as well. The Rams are even worse than the Broncos as far as protecting their passer, and rarely run the ball. Mayfield will have a bull's eye on his back all afternoon. The offensively-challenged Broncos have actually scored more points than someone over the last three weeks, and that "someone" is the Rams. The Broncos have kicked it up a notch on offense recently. Their ran for 50% of plays last week, finishing with 165 yards and 4.9 a carry. Russell Wilson is back and Aaron Donald is not. Merry Christmas Russ. The Rams defense has struggled lately, and the pass defense is only 22nd rated. Wilson will be all in to finish on a high note after a putrid season. The Broncos are favored, which just shows how far the mighty Rams have fallen. Give me the Broncos to win and cover. |
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12-25-22 | Packers +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
The Dolphins are home for Christmas after three straight road losses, so situation-critical for them. The Packers are off a pair of wins and still have a small shot at a wild card spot. Miami has a better record at home this season. They had better step up this week. They gave up 29 points on average in their last three games, a full 8 points off break-even. Other than passer pressure, their pass defense is pretty poor, averaging close to 300 yards in their last three games. Their red zone defense and 3rd down conversions-allowed are well below average as well. |
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12-24-22 | Bengals -3 v. Patriots | Top | 22-18 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
It is the Bengals vs the Patriots in a Christmas Eve match-up. The Patriots are off a foolish loss in week 15. They beat poor teams (usually) but struggle more than expected vs elite ones. The Bengals, winners of 7 straight games, are an elite team, certainly on offense. Burrow's average passer rating is 105 over the last 3 weeks, and Week 15's was exactly double that of Mac Jones'. The Bengals have a solid run game in Mixon and Perine should they choose to use it, but really, the offense is all about the pass. The Patriots are a top ten defense, but have given up more points than the Bengals' somewhat underrated D. NE's best quality is passer pressure: they are third in sacks and first in completion rate allowed. They do give up more TDs to opposing passers than might be expected. Burrow is certainly no stranger in dealing with passer pressure, and the Bengals' O-line is much improved. The Patriots are very average on offense; mid-pack in points-scored, but last in red zone offense, and poor in third down conversions. They have a pair of solid running backs, but Mac Jones isn't scaring anyone lately. The Bengals defense is solid; eighth and improving in rush yards allowed. Their weak point is their pass defense. They are just 20th in passer yards given up, but other than last week, are very stingy in pass TDs allowed. Anything can happen on any given week, but the Bengals' as a 3 point favorite is a golden opportunity to me. Jump on this play. |
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12-24-22 | Lions -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 23-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The surging Detroit Lions travel to meet a Panthers team that has won 2 of 3 games, however the only team to beat Detroit recently is the Bills. Goff has been an eye-opener this year. Now a top ten QB, he has been well protected, averaging over 300 yards passing with no picks in 3 weeks. The Lions' time of possession is 56% in the last three weeks, and in spite of a pass-first offense, they have a very acceptable running game. |
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12-23-22 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-120 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
Northwest Division rivals renew acquaintances right before Christmas with Denver hosting Portland. Speaking of Christmas, Denver plays on the holiday while Portland doesn’t. While not the full extend of my handicap here, I think there could be a bit of a lookahead for the Nuggets (host the Suns on X-Mas). For Portland, this is the end of a six-game road trip. They’ve lost the last two games, both to lowly OKC, so they are desperate for a win here so they can return to their families with their collective heads hung high. I expect the Blazers to be fully motivated tonight. These teams have already split a pair of games in Portland this year. The Blazers won the first one by 25, but lost the second by 1. Something to consider is that while the Nuggets have the best record in the West through 30 games (19-11), three teams below them have better point differentials. Portland isn’t one of the three, but does sport an identical net efficiency rating for the season. The Blazers are a very respectable 11-6 ATS as underdogs while the Nuggets are 2-6 ATS overall in December. Take the points in this one. 10* |
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12-23-22 | Canucks v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Canucks are off a come-from-behind shoot-out victory last night, and now travel to Edmonton to meet the Oilers today. It appears that 2nd stringer Spencer Martin will be back in the net with no viable option as a replacement. The Canucks will be a tired team, no doubt looking ahead to the break. The Oilers are just 1-4 lately with five straight games going over the total. Their top two stars usually excel vs the Canucks. The Canucks' defense and penalty kill are among the league's worst, but they can put the puck in the net. The Oilers are no great shakes on defense either, but do sport the 3rd best offense and the league's top power play. |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest -2 v. Missouri | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
Wake Forest finished the regular season on a 1-4 slide, its only win coming against slumping Syracuse. But I do expect the Demon Deacons to “show up” for the Gasparilla Bowl against Missouri. QB Sam Hartman is just one touchdown away from tying an ACC record. Missouri picked up a nice win over Arkansas in its last regular season game, which they needed to become bowl eligible. My concern with the Tigers is that they only averaged 18 points/game outside of Columbia. Now some of that is due to facing the gauntlet of SEC defenses. But, home or road, Mizzou scored 24 or less eight times this year. I like what I’m hearing from Wake head coach Dave Clawson, who has said he’s happy with the matchup and wants to beat a SEC team. Clawson always seems to get his team to exceed expectations every year. Receiver A.T. Perry not opting out of the bowl is another plus. He’s Hartman’s favorite option to throw to. Missouri’s defense, which is the strength of the team, is dealing with some opt-outs. The two top defensive linemen won’t play and neither will safety Martuez Manuel. On the offensive side of the ball, Mizzou has had to say goodbye to its playcaller (took another job) and receiver Lovett (led team in catches won’t play today either). In the end, look for Wake QB Hartman to be the difference for a Wake team that is on a 9-4 SU/ATS run in bowls. Lay it. 10* |
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12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10* |
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12-22-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 112-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I think this is a good spot to grab the points and fade Utah. The Jazz were 126-111 winners on Tuesday, which was actually good for me as I had the Over in that game with the Pistons (my 10* NBA Total of the Month!) But here, they’re probably less motivated, which could be a problem facing a Wizards team that’s desperate for a win.
This is Washington’s fifth straight road game, all out West. They lost the first three games, but then upset Phoenix Tuesday, winning 113-110 as seven-point underdogs. The trip ends tomorrow in Sacramento. But I think the Wiz are likely to play better tonight. For what it’s worth, the Wiz are 7-5 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year with an almost even scoring differential.
Yes, the Wizards had lost 10 straight before beating Phoenix. But with the proverbial “monkey off their back” now, I expect them to play better. Bradley Beal is back and averaging 28 points/game on 46% shooting since his return.
I am anticipating that Utah will crater and not be a team that finishes in the Top 10 out West. They are 25th in defensive rating. Washington beat this Jazz team 121-112, as a four-point home dog, back in November. Utah is only 5-5 in December and I don’t think they should be laying this many points. Back the dog. 10* |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars +1.5 v. Jets | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
The Jets host the Jaguars in the rain and the wind and prime time on TNF. No Mike White this week for the Jets. It is back to Zach Wilson, who has performed poorly this season, and does not appear to have the confidence of his team mates. As good as the Jets' defense is they are offensively challenged, averaging just 17 points in their last 3 games, and 27th ranked in red zone scoring. Wilson has just 6 TDs, to 6 picks, and has one of the worst completion %s in the league. The Jets are not compensating on the ground, with just 82 yards average rushing last 3 games and 50 last week. |
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12-22-22 | Islanders v. Rangers -152 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Off a loss in their last game but on a 7-1 run, the Rangers are at home to the rival islanders on Thursday evening. It is a good opportunity for the Rangers to salvage a single win in the 3 game series in spite of a past history of losses to the Isles. The teams are evenly matched this season, allowing an average of 2.7 goals while scoring 3.2. The Rangers have a solid edge recently, managing 30 goals in those 7 wins while allowing just 10. The Islanders are just 2-5 in their last 7 games, with 5 of those games going over, a very un-Isles style of play in this stretch. |
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12-22-22 | Chicago State v. Minnesota -13 | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Gonna fade this Chicago State team again. On Monday, we only needed to lay -6.5 with Illinois State, who covered fairly easily in a 66-52 win. Here, it’s a big number obviously, but we’re also getting Minnesota out of the Big 10. This game won’t be close.
As mentioned in Monday’s writeup, Chicago State is in the midst of a long road trip. It began 11 days ago and this will now be the fifth game in a row away from home. The previous four have all been losses with the final margins getting wider. The Cougars have just one win in their last 10 games.
But of course, we’re not just betting on a win here from Minnesota, we need them to win by margin. The Golden Gophers may be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this year, but they are still eons better than Chicago State. The respective KenPom ratings of these two teams are 181 and 327. You know who’s who.
Minnesota had lost five in a row before picking up a convincing 72-56 win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last week. What’s significant about that win is that Ark Pine Bluff has a comparable KenPom rating to Chicago State. It was the Gophers’ first game against a non-quality opponent in some time, which partially explains their SU record. Chicago State has to be gassed playing its fifth road game in 11 days. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been off for over a week. That’s a huge situational edge to the superior home team. Lay it! 10* |
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12-21-22 | Lakers v. Kings -6 | Top | 120-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
It’s been a much better season than usual in Sacramento where the fans haven’t seen the playoffs since 2005-06. That’s the longest postseason drought of any team in the four “major” North American sports. So far this season, the Kings are 16-13 and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference.
But they’re coming off a loss, and a bad one at that, as they fell here at home to the lowly Hornets on Monday. Despite a monster game from Domantas Sabonis (28-23-7), the Kings fell 125-119 as 10-point favorites.
Perhaps you can blame the spot as the Kings were home for the first time following a six-game swing out East. Regardless, I expect them to bounce back here against a wounded Lakers squad that is now without Anthony Davis.
LA didn’t have LeBron either Monday at Phoenix and as a result got trounced 130-104 by Phoenix. They are now 2-5-1 ATS since December 6th. Even worse is the Lakers’ ATS record vs. division foes, which is 0-6. They have also lost all six games straight up. It’s a decent sized number to lay here, however, the Kings are putting up 122.9 points/game at home. The Lakers, even with LeBron presumably back in the lineup, cannot keep up with that. The Kings are not only 6-1 ATS vs. division opponents, but 10-3 ATS against teams that have losing records (Lakers are 13-17 SU). |
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12-21-22 | Wild -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The 8-2 Wild are on a tear, moving into third in their division and winning 5 straight. They've allowed just five goals in those wins while scoring 17, and are getting a fine one-two scoring punch from Zuccarello and Kaprizov. The 3-7 Ducks lost last night to the Kings. The Ducks are 0-6 when playing the second game in a back to back situation. Anaheim is down to their third or fourth string goalie tonight with a trio of defensemen out or questionable, adding to their woes as the league's worst in goals allowed and 31st in goals-scored. Fleury will likely be in net for the Wild. He has been under-performing slightly this year, but has shown improvement lately with a pair .950+ save %'s in his last two appearances. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama -3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
I’m going to lay the points here with South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Since making the jump to the FBS level a decade ago, the Jaguars have never won in a bowl. They’ve only been to two, the last one coming in 2016 (a 45-21 loss to Air Force in the Arizona Bowl). Motivation always has to be part of your handicap in these early bowl games. USA should be motivated to win here.
Meanwhile, there’s an odd situation with Western Kentucky. Their QB Austin Reed, who was second in the country in passing yards (Penix of Washington #1), announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. But then there was an “about face” and Reed is back, set to start the bowl. Teammates are saying the right things, but it’s hardly ideal bowl prep.
The Sun Belt is already 3-0 in bowl games with Troy, Southern Miss and Marshall all victorious thus far. Conference USA is pretty weak and has already dropped two of three bowl matchups. The lone win was UAB against a MAC school (Miami OH). The MAC is the only conference I have rated lower than C-USA.
South Alabama was 2-10 SU three years ago and now has “flipped” that record, entering this game with a 10-2 record. Their defense is excellent, allowing just 19.4 points and 303.7 yards per game. This matchup is all about the Jaguars’ defense vs. the Hilltoppers’ offense. Again, I’m playing the favorite here. USA’s only two losses this year were to Troy (Sun Belt Champs) and UCLA and they were by a combined five points! WKU also lost a close game to Troy and stayed within three at Indiana. But the Hoosiers aren’t a bowl team and the Hilltoppers also got blown out by North Texas and Auburn. USA’s motivation of trying to win their first bowl trumps all. 10* |
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12-21-22 | Northeastern +11.5 v. Davidson | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Early College Hoops action on Wednesday as Davidson hosts Northeastern. Both teams are coming off losses. Northeastern fell at IL-Chicago, 81-73 as a 2.5 point underdog. Davidson lost 69-61 to Purdue, but easily stayed within the number as 14.5 point underdogs.
Coming off a high-profile game against the #1 team in the country, this is a tricky spot for Davidson to be laying double digits. It being an afternoon game doesn’t help and could add to a potential “sleepy” effort. Following this game, the Wildcats are off for a week.
Northeastern is 0-5 so far in true road games and is 3-7 overall. They have not shot well at all this year, making just 40% overall and 30% from three. But we saw those numbers go up against UIC and they should continue to do so.
I also do not believe that opponents will continue to shoot only 29% from three against Davidson. Nine of Davidson’s 11 games have been decided by single digits, including the last seven. I just don’t see the Wildcats winning this one by double digits. Grab those points. 10* |
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12-20-22 | Seton Hall v. Xavier -7.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
There were different results for these two squads in the respective Big East openers. Xavier hung 102 on hapless Georgetown Friday night while Seton Hall lost at home (71-67) to Providence. It looks like a big number here, but I’m laying it with the Musketeers, whose three losses this year have been to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. All those games were close, decided by seven or less. Seton Hall has five losses and has been blown out a few times, losing by double digits to Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas. The Pirates also lost to Siena. I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay within this number tonight. They are averaging just 63.5 points/game away from home so far. That’s not going to cut it against a Xavier team that’s putting up 85.3 in its gym. In addition to that, this is a double revenge game for Xavier, who dropped both meetings with Seton Hall last season. Xavier has won its last six games coming into tonight and has the ninth most efficient offense in the country per KenPom. The worry if you’re Seton Hall is trying to keep up with the pace the Musketeers like to play at. Too much offense from the home team here. Lay it. 10* |
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12-20-22 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | Top | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Second night of a back to back for Utah, who got blown out Monday in Cleveland 122-99 as a seven-point dog. It was the second straight 20+ point loss for the Jazz, who may have finally “hit their wall.” This was a team not expected to contend in 2022-23 but has played .500 ball through 33 games. That sounds nice, but you have to consider they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 15. Of course, the Pistons are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They have the worst record in the league coming into tonight at 8-24. They’ve dropped five of six, the only win coming against 8-23 Charlotte. So I’ve got zero interest in backing the home team in this one either. So let’s now look at the total. Utah hasn’t scored 100 in back to back games, but they also just faced two of the best defensive teams in the league. Detroit is second worst in defensive efficiency. The Over is 10-4 in Pistons’ home games due in large part to the fact they give up nearly 119 points/game here. They’ve also allowed 122 or more to four straight opponents. Utah has allowed 122 or more in each of its last three games, so expect plenty of scoring tonight in this one. Go Over. 10* |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
The MAC representative has generally not fared well in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, claiming just three wins since 2011. Now it isn’t always MAC vs. Mountain West, but when it has been, the MWC is 5-3 straight up. But for this year’s matchup between Eastern Michigan and San Jose State, I like the MAC team getting points.
Part of that is motivation. Coach Chris Creighton has really done a pretty good job at turning this EMU program around. The Eagles had been a doormat for years prior to Creighton’s arrival, but this is will be their fifth bowl appearance in his nine seasons. The thing is, they’ve yet to win one. The program’s last bowl win came all the way back in 1987, in the California Raisin Bowl, against (you won’t believe this, San Jose State). It’s one of the longest bowl droughts in the FBS.
Off a poor finish to the regular season, where they failed to cover their last six games, don’t see where the motivation for SJSU comes from. This also figures to be the rare cold weather bowl game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30’s, something the Spartans are not accustomed with.
Eastern Michigan won its final three regular season games (scoring 31 or more every time) to finish 8-4. QB Powell had 581 yards passing and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio the last two games. In its last two games away from home, the San Jose State defense allowed 35 and 43 points. EMU can run as well. I expect them to put up a good number of points here. As for the San Jose State offense, it is led by QB Cordeiro, who ran hot and cold all year. Eastern Michigan was #2 against the pass in the MAC and won six of the seven games it didn’t allow 240+ pass yards. SJSU’s offensive line is bad, allowing too much pressure and there isn’t much of a ground game. 10* |
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12-19-22 | Sabres v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
The high-scoring Sabres are on the road against the Golden Knights on Monday. The Sabres have won three straight and are above .500 on the road. Vegas is 1-3 in recent home games, and their young goalie Thompson has also tended to struggle more at home. Vegas has a lengthy injury list with some key players out. The Sabres have the top offense in the league but defense is often not a priority, allowing 3.5 goals a game. The Knights are a solid defensive team, but their 24th ranked PK will be up against the Sabres second ranked Power Play. Vegas is also not immune to some high totals, allowing 5 against the Islanders and the Jets in recent games. |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
It will be a cold day in Lambeau Field when the Rams travel to face the Packers. the Packers are healthier, better rested and favored by a touchdown on Monday. Mayfield was the talk of the town this week for that last minute drive to beat the Raiders in week 14. Let's keep things in perspective; he and the Rams did nothing for most of the game, the Raiders' pass defense is very poor, and the Rams ended the game with 17 points, almost exactly average for them this season. a plus for the Rams is their run defense, 4th rated this season although yards-against have climbed in the last three games. They are generally below average in passing yards allowed and don't pressure the passer particularly. On offense, they don't usually run the ball although that could change this week. The Packers are very poor against the run, and much tougher (4th in yards allowed} when defending against the pass. Mayfield has been with the team barely 10 days. I think he was running on adrenaline last week and this week will be the real test. |
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12-19-22 | Chicago State v. Illinois State -6.5 | Top | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Illinois State hasn’t had a ton to celebrate over the first month of the season, but this is a game where the Redbirds should roll. They are matched up with Chicago State, who (as per usual) is one of the worst teams in the country. Expect the home team to roll tonight in Normal.
ISU was on a three-game SU win streak and had covered four in a row before facing Ball State on Saturday. That game was played at a neutral site (Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) and the Redbirds got victimized by a hot-shooting team as Ball State made 56.7% of its field goal attempts.
You can’t expect that from Chicago State, who is shooting just 41.5% as a team for the season. The Cougars have covered four in a row, but have lost the last three SU and this will be their fourth straight road game over the last nine days. That’s a bad spot to be in for a team that’s won only three times all season and one of those victories came against IUPUI, the worst D-I team in the country.
Chicago State has played 10 road games and lost them all, by an average of nearly 15 points/game. We don’t even need that margin here. After losing its first two games of the season here in Normal, both by three points, Illinois State has won its last three home games including a nice little upset of Belmont. The Redbirds should win easily tonight. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
All of a sudden, Orlando has won six in a row and covered seven straight. They just swept a pair of games in Boston, but with the second being played yesterday, the Magic find themselves at a rest disadvantage here. Atlanta last played on Friday, when they blew out Charlotte 125-106 on the road.
That result was much needed for the Hawks as they’d previously dropped 8 of 11 amidst infighting. One of the losses came to the Magic as the Hawks apparently thought defense was optional. They gave up 50 points in the first quarter and ended up losing 135-124.
But that was in Orlando. At home, I like the Hawks to exact some revenge here.
The Magic have yet to win in the second night of a back to back this season (0-4), losing by an average of almost seven points/game. Considering the Hawks were three-point favorites on the road in Orlando last week, it sure looks like we’re getting a discount on them for this rematch. Atlanta won the season’s first two meetings, by 10 and 17 points respectively. They are 8-2 SU/ATS vs. the Magic the last three seasons. Lay it. 10* |
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12-18-22 | Washington State v. Baylor -10 | Top | 59-65 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
In the final game on the board, I look for Baylor to roll tonight against Washington State. This is being played at the American Airlines Arena (home of NBA’s Mavs), so not a true home game for the Bears, but we know which team will have more crowd support here.
Since a humiliating 26-point loss at the hands of Marquette, Baylor has beaten Gonzaga and predictably rolled Tarleton State. They remain in the top 15 at KenPom and are a top five offensive team.
Washington State has lost three of four, including close games to Utah (in overtime) and UNLV (who was still undefeated at the time). So the Cougs are getting some respect from the oddsmakers here. But not from the public, who has already bet this number up a couple points.
I agree with the line move. Wazzu turns the ball over way too much and that plays right into the hands of Baylor, who is 24th in the country in turnover percentage and 36th in steal percentage. Probably going to be too much offense from the Bears as well. They average 84.6 points/game while Wazzu only averages 71.6. Really that second number is inflated. The Cougs have had three big offensive games so far (96, 82 and 83) but otherwise haven’t topped 70. They had just 65 in the OT loss at Utah. 8* |
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12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers -2.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
The Titans face the Chargers at home in a a very significant game for both sides. The Chargers are healthier this week with 2 top WRs and their center healthy which should provide a boost to their passing offense. Herbert was on fire last week, throwing for a massive 342 yards vs the Dolphins. Pass defense is the Titan's sore point; they've given up the 31st ranked passing yards this season including 340 on average in the last three games. As Henry goes, so go the Titans' offense. Usually. The king bounced back vs the Jaguars last week after a couple of off weeks, but the Titans' pass attack just hasn't been dynamic enough to win games lately. They average just 175 yards passing and 18 points-for, and even with Henry they are just 16th in rush yards this season. Henry should be able to run against LA, but the Chargers have been tough to move against in the air lately, with an opponent's average passer rating of 81 L3 games, and 65 last week. The Chargers have the momentum, are at home and need this game to keep playoff hopes alive. Look for the Chargers' pass attack to improve this week and LA to win and cover. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense. Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs. They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games. |
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12-18-22 | France v. Argentina OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
It is Messi vs possibly his heir apparent in Mbape facing each other in the World Cup final. France scored a pair against a tough Maroc side, but the Atlas Lions, much less of an offensive powerhouse than Argentina, had their chances. Argentina ran up 3 goals against Craotia. Both teams have superlative offenses and real star power, but have conceded goals in the tournament. France has scored 13 and allowed 5, with Argentina conceding 5 and scoring 12. One has the feeling that Messi will be all-out in likely his last chance for a world cup victory, with France just as determined to repeat as champions. This will be another very close offense driven game. It is very likely that we sill see goals from both sides, possibly multiples. Frances was victorious in the 2018 World Cup match, winning 4-3. It is not unlikely that we will see something similar on Sunday. Take Argentina and France to go over. |
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12-17-22 | Abilene Christian -4.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 65-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Abilene Christian comes into this game as the road favorite and has already taken significant money against a Cal State Bakersfield team that I’d have little faith in. Our side comes in having won four of five, including an 84-63 beatdown of Texas A&M-Commerce last Saturday.
CS-Bakersfield plays slow (341st in adjusted tempo) and is also one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country (342nd). There’s just not much to like about the Roadrunners right now. In their last three games vs. D-I opponents, they have failed to score more than 54 points. This will be their first time taking the court in 11 days. So on top of everything, they could be rusty. Abilene Christian averages 76.4 points while outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game. I just don’t think this spread is large enough, even with the Wildcats being the road team. 10* |
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12-17-22 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
There is no doubt the Suns will be looking to avenge a pair of losses in New Orleans last week. But equally perturbed will be the Pelicans, who just dropped two in a row at Utah. I’ve got the Pelicans rated as the better team here and thus will be taking the points.
NO had won seven straight before those two losses in Salt Lake City. Their last two wins were both against the Suns as they won 128-117 and 129-124 at home. That second win required overtime. The pattern was then repeated in Utah with the second of the two games going to OT, only this time the Pelicans lost both times.
The Suns were on an 0-5 SU/ATS tailspin before catching a break and facing the Clippers, who sat four starters including Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, on Thursday. So there’s really no debate as to which of the teams involved tonight has been playing better.
New Orleans is a top five team both on offense and defense. They are the only team in the league that can say that. They have the best point differential this year among Western Conference teams. Their record would be a lot better if not for four overtime losses. The Suns are missing both Cameron Payne and DeAndre Ayton. Neither played Thursday and both are listed as being OUT for tonight. Give me the the Pelicans, off back to back losses and at full strength, catching the points. 10* |
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12-17-22 | Sabres -165 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The surprising Coyotes, off a win over the Islanders, have two strikes against them tonight. In spite of an above .500 record at home, they played last night, and won't start Vejmelka in net. Vejmelka has held the Coyotes in games all year, but played last night, so expect Ingram (1-6, .866) to start. For the Sabres it will likely be 41 year old Anderson, a standout this year, off a shutout over the Kings in his last start. The Sabres have won their last two games and while very young, have a tremendous upside. They are leading the league in goals-scored and are second on the PP. Defense is not their forte; they give up 3.5 goals a game. The weak scoring Coyotes may have exhausted themselves last night, managing 5 goals against the Islanders. Arizona gives up better than 3.5 goals a game. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!) The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season. Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under. |
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12-17-22 | Rice +6.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Rice is a 5-7 team that only got to a bowl because there weren’t enough 6-win teams. For that reason, most will be writing off the Owls here in the Lending Tree Bowl vs. Southern Miss. But don’t discount the Owls’ motivation. This will be the program’s first bowl appearance since 2014. They will be out to win. So I’m taking the points.
Southern Miss is in a bowl for the first time since 2019. They won their final game (20-10 over LA Monroe) to get to 6-6. The Golden Eagles’ offense goes through RB Frank Gore Jr, who I concede could be a problem for a shaky Rice run defense (166.8 YPG allowed).
These teams are quite familiar with one another as they were rivals in Conference USA up until this season when USM bolted for the Sun Belt. Rice has actually beaten Southern Miss each of the last two seasons, 24-19 and 30-6, both times as a one-point underdog.
Half of Rice’s games this season were decided by seven points or less. The same was true of Southern Miss. With a low total, I think it just makes sense to take the points here. Turnovers were the Owls’ bugaboo this year. Only Northwestern coughed it up more. As long as they can protect the football, I have no doubt that they can cover this number and possibly win outright. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Creighton v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
A lot of people are probably going to want to jump on Creighton here as the Bluejays have dropped five in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. But Ryan Kalkbrenner remains questionable due to illness and this Marquette team is no joke. Therefore, now is NOT the time to be jumping on the Bluejays. While Creighton has dropped five straight, Marquette has suffered only three losses all year. All three were by five points or less, to teams ranked in the Top 40 at KenPom: Purdue, Miss State and Wisconsin. The last loss (Wisconsin) was an overtime game. The Golden Eagles are coming off a 79-64 win at Notre Dame on Sunday. I played them there and will do so again today. Against Notre Dame, the Golden Eagles won despite shooting only 26% from three. Winning at South Bend is not easy, especially when the visitor isn’t making threes. So tip your cap to Marquette there. Overall, this team is shooting very well this season; at nearly 50% from the field. Creighton does not defend the three-point line particularly well, ranking 240th in the country in doing so. This is a huge revenge spot for Marquette, who has lost the last four meetings with Creighton. Even if Kalkbrenner does play, don’t expect him to be that effective. At 7-4 ATS on the season, Marquette has been beating oddsmakers’ expectations and they are a strong home team (just two losses in the calendar year at Fiserv Forum). Lay the points. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Cleveland has been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NBA, all year long. But this is too many points to lay in a division matchup. Only one time since 11/25 have the Cavs won back to back games. They are coming off a 105-90 win at Dallas Wednesday night. The Cavs’ defensive numbers have been outstanding. But Indiana comes in having scored 121 or more in three of its last four games and just beat the Warriors 48 hours ago. Revenge is a factor here as the Pacers were swept in the season series last year. Three of those games were decided by seven points or less. Indiana also has been good when facing conference foes this season. They are 10-6 straight up and against the number vs. the rest of the East. I know Cleveland’s defensive numbers and home record makes for a scary fade here. But they are just 2-8 ATS when off a non-conference game and 1-5 ATS off their previous six SU wins. Take the points. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is the more “marquee” bowl on Friday as we’ve got Troy taking on UTSA in the Cure Bowl, played in Orlando, FL. You’ve got to think the Roadrunners want this one badly. They’ve gone 0-2 in bowls the last two years and are 0-3 all-time in bowls in program history.
I won’t dispute the fact that Troy has the edge defensively heading into this game. But my concern for the Trojans is whether or not they have enough offense to keep up with UTSA. My gut says “no.” UTSA averages 38.7 points/game, which is Top 12 in the country and #1 among Group of Five teams.
UTSA QB Frank Harris leads the charge with 3,865 yards passing this season and 9,158 in his career. Him sticking around to play in this game is a major reason why I’m putting my money on the Roadrunners.
Both teams won their respective conferences, Troy the Sun Belt and UTSA C-USA. Of the four combined losses, three were to ranked teams (at the time) and the other on a Hail Mary. Troy is 10-2 ATS, tied for the best cover percentage in the FBS. But teams coming into the bowls with a ATS win percentage of .750 or higher are just 41% ATS over the last decade. I believe UTSA is the substantially better team, which is NOT reflected in the line. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH +11 v. UAB | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
Double digit dogs in bowl games have been a valuable investment through the years. We’ve got one of those in our very first bowl game of the season as Miami takes on UAB in the Bahamas. Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami ends up as a single digit dog by kickoff. That’s because on Thursday afternoon it was announced UAB stud RB DeWayne McBride is sitting this game out. UAB already was dealing with some upheaval as Trent Dilfer will be coming in as the next head coach. But it will be an interim (Bryant Vincent) coaching this game. Many of the players wanted Vincent to get the head coaching job on a permanent basis. Both teams were 6-6 SU in the regular season. However, UAB didn’t cover the spread a single time away from home (0-6 ATS). McBride is a major loss as he led all of FBS in rushing yards (1,713) and touchdowns (19). Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS in bowls under Chuck Martin and this will be the first time since 2003-04 that the program has gone bowling in consecutive years. The RedHawks defeated North Texas in the Frisco Classic last year. They have covered four straight bowls. I’d bet this one ASAP as I expect the line to go down. But, no matter the number, taking the points would be the right move. In fact, an outright upset wouldn’t shock me here. UAB is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with more than a week of rest. The Blazers’ defense has struggled against mobile QBs and Miami has one in Aveon Smith (with Brett Gabbert out). A double digit dog with a total this low is attractive. Take the points. 8* |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine v. Santa Clara -1.5 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Santa Clara is going to be looking to reverse some trends here, namely the fact they are 0-5 ATS their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with tonight’s opponent, UC Irvine (also 0-6 straight up!)
Now while the Broncos haven’t been covering, they’ve been (mostly) winning. Their only SU loss since Thanksgiving came here at home to San Jose State, 75-64, as an 8.5-point favorite here at home.
They bounced back though by defeating Portland State 78-75, but as you already know did not cover the number. The Broncos were favored to win that game by 9.5 points.
Tonight, there really is no worry about winning and not covering as it’s a much shorter number vs. UC Irvine, a team that had dropped two in a row before winning at South Dakota on Saturday. I know it’s a shorter turnaround (between games) for Santa Clara, but I like them to get the job done tonight. I do not think UC Irvine can continue to shoot 41% from three-point land nor do I believe their opponents will continue to shoot at a 28.8% clip from behind the arc. Lay the short number here. 10* |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 129-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are looking to avenge a 21-point loss they suffered right here in Salt Lake City two nights ago. I think they do it. Yes, I did have the Pellies on Tuesday. But I don’t see them shooting just 39.8% overall again nor do I see them missing 23 of 27 three-point attempts as they did last time.
The Pelicans had won seven in a row before losing to the Jazz. They still have the best record, point differential and net efficiency among Western Conference teams, so there’s no reason to panic after one bad loss. I believe this team is simply better than Utah.
The Jazz were supposed to be bottom-feeders this season, but have surprised with a winning record (16-14 overall). I’m still not convinced they can remain “above water” though. They are a bottom 10 team defensively, which is another reason I don’t see New Orleans’ poor shooting from Tuesday repeating itself here.
Another thing to note from Tuesday. Zion Williamson played only 26 minutes due to foul trouble. He still scored 26 points. New Orleans ranks third on the defensive end, so that’s a big edge. When off a SU loss as a favorite this year, they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Lay the small number. 10* |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 47 h 34 m | Show |
The 49ers survived without Jimmy G very well thank you very much, however it was a very ugly week for the Seahawks, losing to the Lowly Panthers at home. The Panthers ran all over the Seahawks, finishing with more than 200 yards rushing. Geno Smith looked very human vs. a decent Panthers' pass defense, and was sacked three times by a team 20th in sacks this season. The Giants defense will be in a feeding frenzy after a no sacks but dominant defensive performance against Tampa Bay. The jury is still out on injured Seahawks' running backs, though it looks like Walker will be back. The 49ers are not a team to face with an unbalanced offense, and Seattle managed just 46 yards rushing yards last week and an average of 67 yards L3 games. Purdy is questionable at QB, but there is nothing wrong with the 49ers' running game. These are very favorable odds for the moment, and they will not get better. Jump on this one without delay. |
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12-15-22 | Predators v. Jets -146 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The Jets, off a pair of losses after a 7-1 run, are at home and facing a Predators team who have struggled on the road this season. Winnipeg allowed 11 goals in their last two games, uncommon in a team that is fifth in goals against, and very stingy on the PK. The Jets will try to get back to their defensively responsible selves against a Preds team that has lost four straight and is 29th rated in goals scored and on the PP. Nashville is also down 3 or 4 defensemen to injury today. The Predators' ace net-minder Saros has been more uneven that might be expected this year. Hellebuyck, the Jets' elite goaltender, has allowed 5 and 6 goals against in his last two games, but that has been more about defensive breakdowns in front of him. Winnipeg has been overachieving on offense lately. Look for a much more defensively-focused Jets team to avoid their third straight loss, and win this one at home. |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Now seems like a good time to buy the Clippers. They are healthy with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both playing and just dismantled the Celtics on Monday (much to my dismay) 113-93 here at home. With Leonard and George on the floor together, this team is +18.3 per 100 possessions with a 99.3 defensive rating. Those are the kinds of numbers that were expected from a team many predicted could win the NBA Finals this season.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t seemed right all season. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns and just got beat twice in Portland. This is now their fourth road game in the last six days.
The most encouraging sign for the Clippers is that Leonard just scored 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting against Boston, his best game in some time.
I already mentioned the Clippers’ defensive rating when both Leonard and George are out there. I think that they are likely to hold the T’wolves in check tonight. Minny has shot 51.4% over its last five games. That’s simply not likely to continue, which means trouble considering they’ve lost three of those last five games anyway. The Clippers were the first team all year to hold Boston under 100 points. The Timberwolves simply have not been a good team to bet on this season as they are only 10-17 ATS overall including 3-6 as a dog. 8* |
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12-14-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
It was a rough start to the season in Eugene as, at one point, Oregon was down to just six scholarship players. After six games, they were 2-4 straight up. But the ship seems to have been righted as the Ducks have covered four in a row, winning three of those straight up (only SU loss was to UCLA). I expect the home team to win big tonight against UC Riverside, who will be playing its third straight road game and second in the last four days. The Highlanders beat Idaho 76-74 on Sunday, however did not cover the spread as six-point favorites. They are outclassed in this matchup. So far, UC Riverside has faced two opponents inside the KenPom top 100, Colorado and Creighton. They lost those two games by a combined 45 points. Another double digit loss is on the way. Oregon will enjoy a nice size advantage in tonight’s matchup. In fact, by being the tallest team in the country, they enjoy a size advantage in every matchup. UC Riverside does not hit enough threes to counteract that. When facing D-I opponents, the Highlanders are barely hitting 30% from downtown. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season and allowing only 59.3 points/game at home. Their resurgence continues here. 10* |
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12-14-22 | Morocco v. France OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
France and Morocco meet in an absolutely pan-global classic underdog/favorite matchup. France's defense has not been their forte ,and has given up a goal in every match so far in the World Cup. They haven't looked particularly focused on the back end, and have given up too many free kicks on careless play. Morocco has yet to yield a goal in the tournament, other than an own-goal vs Canada, although Portugal should have scored, with far too many shots off the target. Morocco has has proven to be composed, unified and quite unflappable when defending to date and has a very strong net-minder in Bounou. The Atlas Lions have also been potent on the counterattack and have shown excellent finish to date. That said, France is formidable on offense with 11 goals in the tournament to date, and at least a trio of elite potential goalscorers in Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroux. I 'm betting on both teams connecting for goals; France with likely more than 1. Morocco might be content to play for a draw and penalty shots, but France, after Bono's heroics in net, will not want to leave this game to chance. Morocco, the underdog, will be under tremendous pressure,with home country, and the Pan-Arab and african worlds passionately behind them. They have been poised to date, but this level of playl is all new to them. France, winner of the last world Cup, has pressure of their own but is on familiar ground. I am on the total on Wednesday. I am not sure of a winner, but the total will go over. |
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