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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia played a really sloppy game last week against NC State, which is why they lost 38-21 as a seven-point home favorite. But please do not make the mistake of judging that game by its final score. The Cavaliers outgained the Wolfpack 405-363. So how did they lose by 17, you ask? Turnovers. There were four of them by UVA (only 1 by NC State). All were costly, especially a late pick-six that broke the game open. Turning it over on downs in the 4Q led to another late NC State TD. This week the Cavaliers are at Wake Forest, who is off a bye, but also is 0-2 vs. the ACC. The Demon Deacons got predictably blown out by Clemson then lost 45-42 at NC State. Their only win was against FCS Campbell. So both teams losses were to the same two teams (with both covering vs. Clemson), the only difference is Virginia actually beat an ACC team (Duke) rather than a FCS one. We know there are some question marks at QB for the Cavaliers (Brennan Armstrong got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, another bad break), but backup Lindell Stone looked good enough (save for the pick-six). No matter who is the QB, look for the road team to win Saturday afternoon. Wake Forest’s defense is the worst in the ACC on third down (52.4% conversion rate) while Virginia’s defense is great at stopping the run (allows only 3.4 yds/carry). Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-17-20 | South Florida +11 v. Temple | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF Last week, we told you to fade Temple in its very first game of the season. The Owls lost, 31-29, to a Navy team that had really been struggling this season. While a late 2-pt try could have tied it, Temple never led in the contest, though it did outgain the Midshipmen. Still, that “moral victory” will be of no use here as the Owls are being asked to lay double digits, something they are clearly not ready to do at this juncture of the season. South Florida has been bad, losing three straight by 20 or more points. But two of those were against really good teams (Notre Dame, Cincinnati). We don’t know what to say about last week’s 44-24 home loss to East Carolina. The Bulls secondary actually held up against both ranked opponents and is allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt this year. Including an ATS win at Cincinnati, USF is 5-1 ATS off its previous six ATS defeats, so they tend to bounce back from disappointing efforts. This is enough points for us to feel comfortable in selecting a pretty desperate underdog. Play on USF AAA |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -26.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON While Clemson had been winning comfortably, they were 0-3 ATS heading into last week’s heavily hyped showdown with Miami. On Saturday night, the Tigers reminded us all why they are considered one of the elite CFB programs in this country. They blew the doors off the Hurricanes, winning 42-17, and easily covered the 14-point spread. Even after a high profile win such as that, Clemson shouldn’t have much trouble covering this larger spread this week at Georgia Tech. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. ranked opponents, they have failed to cover all four times in program history when they’ve been an underdog of at least 27 points. Clemson is 16-5 ATS L21 ACC games and 18-7 ATS its last 25 times as a double digit favorite. The last two years, they’ve beaten Georgia Tech 49-21 and 52-14. The Yellow Jackets defense has been really bad this season, even giving up 37 to Syracuse. Last Friday’s 46-27 win over Louisville was a completely misleading final score. The Jackets were actually outgained (gave up 471 yards) but got lucky with a +3 turnover differential. Clemson won’t be so generous here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS STATE Arkansas State (2-2) holds a win over Kansas State, which is looking more and more impressive as time wears on. (Kansas State has since gone 3-0 with a win over Oklahoma). The Red Wolves did get their doors blown off at Coastal Carolina, but finally got a home game last Saturday and in it defeated Central Arkansas 50-27. While that’s a FCS team, the Red Wolves have obviously proven they can beat a good team. They are 3-0 ATS besides the games vs. Coastal Carolina, who may be a better team that most realize. As for Georgia State, we know they almost upset Sun Belt standard bearer Louisiana. But they lost that game in overtime. That was almost a month ago. The Panthers’ lone other contest took place 12 days ago and they had little problem beating East Carolina 49-29. That they were 17-point underdogs to Louisiana and a slight underdog at home to ECU should tell you what the market thinks of them. Now COVID-19 played a role in those lines, but we think they are getting a bit too much respect Thursday in Jonesboro. GSU is just 2-10-2 ATS its L14 road games. They won’t win here. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Coastal Carolina Louisiana won 11 games last year and is currently unbeaten and ranked #21 in the country. They defeated nationally ranked Iowa State in their season opener. But the resume for this Ragin Cajun team isn’t as rosy as you might think. They have been outgained in two of their three games, including the upset of Iowa State, and their last two wins have been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They did not come close to covering the 17-point spread vs. Georgia State nor the 12-point spread vs. Georgia Southern, even trailing outright for a considerable portion of those two games. In comes Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina, who is also 3-0 on the road. The Chanticleers have also beaten a Big 12 team this year (Kansas) and scored 95 points in the two wins since. They’ve had excellent line play on both sides of the football. Throw in the fact this game has had to be moved twice and you’ve got all the makings of an upset Wednesday night on ESPN2. Coastal Carolina has covered each of the last four tries as a road underdog while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS the L4 times it has been a favorite. Play on Coastal Carolina AAA |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread. The only other winless ATS teams are: the Jets, Texans and Titans. The Titans have played only three games (but are 3-0 straight up!) while the other two teams on that list are both 0-4 SU. The Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-4 SU also. Their only win was a huge comeback at Atlanta. Dak Prescott and the offense are doing just fine, thank you (#1 in yards per game!). But the Dallas defense stinks right now as it is giving up the third most yards and most points per game. That’s where a matchup with the 0-4 Giants comes in. New York’s offense, minus Saquon Barkley, simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Dallas defense the same way previous opponents have. The G-Men are averaging the second fewest yards and the fewest points in the league right now. We faded Dallas last week (outright winner with Cleveland!) and while we don’t necessarily trust them to cover the full game spread this week, we expect a fast start. All they need to be is up a touchdown and that seems very doable against a side averaging just 5.5 points per game in the first half this year. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 139 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona seemed like it would be a “surprise team” in 2020 as they started 2-0, including a win over the NFC Champion 49ers. But the last two weeks have seen them lose as favorites to the Lions and Panthers. That’s just not acceptable if they wish to be taken seriously. Fortunately for Kliff Kingsbury, this week’s opponent is the Jets and that’s a team no one is taking seriously right now. The Jets might be the worst team in the league at this point. Sam Darnold wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire before getting hurt last Thursday vs. Denver. If he’s out, then the Jets would have to go with the ancient Joe Flacco at quarterback. In that Thursday night game vs. the Broncos, the Jets were +3 in turnovers and still lost by nine at home. That was to a winless team starting the undrafted Brett Rypien at QB on a short week! Arizona easily could have been 3-0 going into last week’s game. They played poorly at Carolina, plain and simple. But they are talented enough to bounce back with a big win here against a team that’s giving up almost 35 points per game over the L3 weeks. The Jets offense has no talent left at the skill positions and has lost every game by at least nine points. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-10-20 | Temple v. Navy +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy is not having a good start to the season. The Midshipmen are 1-2 and the two losses have been by 52 and 33 points. In their only win, 27-24 over Tulane, they trailed 24-0 at the half. They were actually FAVORED by 6.5 points last week when they lost to Air Force 40-7. But we are not ready to declare this a “sinking ship” just yet. This week the Middies welcome Temple to Annapolis. The Owls have yet to play a game in 2020, so we don’t know a ton about them. What we do know is that this game was originally set to take place on 9/26, but Temple coach Rod Carey said his team “needed more time to prepare.” That was awfully nice of Navy to give Temple an extra two week. Something else that needs to be pointed out is that the Midshipmen played last week’s game without their starting QB Dalen Morris. He is slated to return for this game. With all four of its non-conference games cancelled, Temple is just too big of a question mark to lay points on the road. Coach Ken Niumatalolo will have Navy ready to play here. Play on NAVY AAA |
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10-10-20 | Florida -6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA Things aren’t looking too rosy for Texas A&M right now after an unimpressive win over Vanderbilt and a blowout loss to Alabama. Still ranked (for now), Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies must now face Florida, another top five team that is scoring in bunches. The Gators have put up 89 points in two wins, both of which were by double digits. They won at Ole Miss 51-35 with 642 yards offense, then took care of South Carolina 38-24. While that second game ended up being pretty even in terms of total yards, Florida was ahead 38-14 late in the 3rd quarter and clearly took its foot off the gas. South Carolina was pretty lucky to go 11 for 23 on third/fourth down, something we don’t see the Aggies replicating. Even more so than giving up a 31-3 run to Alabama, A&M’s poor showing vs. Vandy casts a real “shadow of doubt” over the team’s preseason ranking. They have not done well in the past at home vs. top five opponents, losing all five such matchups since 2000. Florida has won all seven times they’ve been a road favorite under Mullen with the tightest margin of victory being eight points. This is a “friendly” line for the favorite too! Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISVILLE For the second straight day in College Football, we’re a bit perplexed by a line move. It was only three weeks ago that Louisville was ranked 18th in the country. Now they are laying a very small number to a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t very good. Yes, the Cardinals have dropped two straight. But those losses came to Miami and Pittsburgh, both of whom were top 25 teams at the time (Miami is now in the Top 10). Georgia Tech is probably the worst team in the entire ACC and also coming off two straight losses. Their losses were more severe though as they were beaten 49-21 by UCF and 37-20 by Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets lone win was by three points over struggling Florida State, a game that featured a long weather delay. The Jackets’ defense is probably in a lot of trouble Friday night. They gave up 37 to a Syracuse team that had previously scored just 16 pts in two games. Louisville comes in averaging over 400 yards/game behind QB Malik Cunningham. Ga Tech is 0-5 SU/ATS L5 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB In a year where scoring is at an all-time record pace, the Bears seem to be a little “slow on the uptake.” They are averaging only 21.3 points per game, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and that number would be even lower were it not for a couple of miracle 4th quarter comebacks against Detroit and Atlanta, two of the worst defensive teams in football. Switching to Nick Foles at QB produced a “one-week miracle” against Atlanta, but had no effect last week when the Bears faced the tough defense of the Colts. Up until a “garbage-time” drive late in the 4th quarter, Foles and the Bears offense had produced all of 3 points and 179 total yards vs. Indy. Now, on a short week, they must deal with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who have won three straight (averaging 32.3 points/game) since a season-opening loss to the Saints (whom they held below 300 total yards). The Bucs had almost 500 yards of offense last week in a comeback effort over the Chargers. Brady threw TD passes to five different receivers. Chicago is 4-12 ATS its last 16 games and 0-6 ATS its L6 vs. teams with winning records. That 3-0 start was a total mirage as they beat three teams that are now a combined 1-11 SU. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULANE The line move earlier in the week is something we found to be rather curious. Houston has yet to even play a game! They’ve obviously tried. But five games have had to be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19. That’s insane. This is a team coming off its worst season in 15 years as they went 4-8 SU in 2019. Injuries really took their toll on the Cougars last year. Coach Dana Holgorsen is bringing in a TON of transfers (33!) this year, but also lost QB D’Eriq King to Miami via the transfer portal and it can’t be understated how significant that is. Tulane has already played three games this season and would be 3-0 if not for a stunning 2nd half collapse at home vs. Navy. Two weeks ago, the Green Wave put up 66 points in a total beatdown of Southern Miss, which was the second road win of the season. Their defense has also been pretty good as it ranks third among AAC teams in total yards per game allowed (368.3). Houston’s defense gave up 35.5 points/game vs. FBS foes last season including 38 in a last second loss at Tulane. Not only do we think the underdog will cover the spread here, there’s a very good chance they take the game outright. Play on TULANE AAA |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA Seattle, for all its defensive faults, still has Russell Wilson and as long as they’re letting the early frontrunner for MVP “cook,” they’ll be just fine. A Miami team that’s off a very misleading 31-13 win over Jacksonville 10 days ago is simply no match here. The Dolphins actually gained less than 300 total yards in that Thursday night win, a number which simply won’t cut it against an opponent like the Seahawks that has put up 35+ points in every game. Wilson’s 14 TD passes through three weeks is an NFL record. The Miami defense really struggled against running QBs Cam Newton and Josh Allen the first two weeks. They gave up an alarming number of yards per play against Buffalo in Week 2. Early start times don’t bother the 3-0 ATS Seahawks, who have covered the number 7 of the last 9 times they’ve played at 1 PM ET (7-1-1). That includes a dominant win over Atlanta in Week 1 (they are the only team not to fall behind by double digits against the Falcons). Laying less than a touchdown is key here. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NO New Orleans is off to a bit of a slow start. After beating Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Saints have subsequently lost to the Raiders and Packers, leaving them at 1-2 despite being a favorite all three times. They’re a favorite again here in Detroit against a Lions team that just won for the first time last week, a surprise upset at Arizona. This marks the first time the Saints have lost two straight in three years. They are expected to get WR Michael Thomas back, which is huge, and laying points shouldn’t concern you as the team’s 12-4 record as a road favorite is a league-best since 2016. Overall, they’ve covered 24 of their last 33 road games, also the best run in the league. There really is nothing wrong with the Saints offense as Alvin Kamara has a NFL-high six touchdowns and now gets to go against a Detroit defense that has really struggled for Matt Patricia. If not for a +3 turnover margin last week vs. Arizona, the Lions would likely be 0-3 coming into this game. Laying a short number seems like a real steal given the disparity in talent between the two teams. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-04-20 | Browns +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 49-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLE Even though the Cowboys are 1-2, they are still considered one of the more talented teams in this league. And the Browns needed five turnovers last week to beat Washington 34-20. So “the world” figures to be laying the points in this one. But we’re taking ‘em (the points, that is) as Dallas would be 0-3 right now had they not delivered that miracle comeback in Atlanta two weeks ago. They are 0-3 against the spread. In three games, they have had the lead for less than 14 minutes. The defense has given up 77 points the last two games and now faces a Browns offense that has scored 69 the last two weeks. Cleveland has a very good running game, thanks to perhaps the best duo of backs in the league, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That Dallas defense is giving up over 400 yards per game including 128 on the ground. The Cowboys have covered just one of the last five times they have been the betting favorite. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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10-03-20 | Auburn +7 v. Georgia | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN It didn’t take long for the SEC to produce its first top 10 showdown of 2020. It’ll go down this Saturday in Athens where #4 Georgia hosts #7 Auburn. The visiting Tigers have already beaten one Top 25 foe, that being Kentucky, in the opener last week. It was an impressive win too, 29-13, and it could have been even more lopsided had a 100-yard INT return not been called back on a questionable penalty. Georgia’s win last week wasn’t nearly as impressive, although the final score was 37-10. That was against Arkansas, who is certainly the worst team in the SEC West and probably the worst team in the whole league. The Bulldogs couldn’t run the ball against the Hogs, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry, and they have some real uncertainty at the QB position right now. The Dawgs trailed at halftime last week and didn’t take the lead for good until there were only six minutes left in the third quarter. So it was a bit of a misleading final score. It was a defensive score, late in the third, that really broke the game wide-open. Auburn hasn’t had much luck against Georgia in recent years, but three of the last five losses have been by just a touchdown. We like what we saw from QB Bo Nix last week and think this is the Tigers time to break through. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLA Oklahoma was shocked last week at home, blowing a three touchdown advantage and losing 38-35 to Kansas State. (We discussed this in the Kansas State writeup as well). That’s not what the Sooners were expecting in the Big 12 opener and now they’ll try and even their conference record up at 1-1 when they visit Ames Saturday night. Iowa State has also been at home this year. They lost their season opener 31-14 to Louisiana. Really, the Cyclones are lucky not to be 0-2 entering this game. They were outgained 499-423 last week by TCU, but did manage to hold on for the 37-34 victory. Under Matt Campbell, ISU has been more competitive vs. Oklahoma, but a 2017 upset in Norman remains the Cyclones lone victory in the last 21 tries. They’ve lost to them 24 straight times here in Ames. Oklahoma typically bounces back from a loss as they have not dropped two straight in the regular season since 1999. Last week was their first loss in September under Lincoln Riley. Unfortunately, this makes the second year in a row Iowa State has to face OU off a loss. Last year’s game was close (42-41) but having dropped to #18 in the rankings, the Sooners are out for blood here. Lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY Kentucky came up short against Auburn last week, losing 29-13. The game really swung on an interception near the end of the first half. Down 8-7 (yes, that was the score), UK had driven the ball 64 yards down to the Auburn 1 yard line. It was then QB Terry Wilson made a terrible decision and threw an interception that was returned the length of the field for a TD. The ‘pick-six’ was actually called back, but the INT was a mistake that the Wildcats never recovered from. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the game 29-13. Still that was a very good team they were up against on the road. A home game vs. Ole Miss should go a whole lot better. Ole Miss also lost to a top 10 team last week, 51-35 vs. Florida, though it was at home. Losing his debut wasn’t what Lane Kiffin wanted, but he was a heavy underdog. Still that underdog status doesn’t justify giving up over 600 yards, even though the Rebels gained 600+ themselves. It’s a much shorter line this week and that means trouble for Ole Miss as they’ve lost 13 straight times as a dog (just 4-9 ATS). They are also 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS L9 road games. Lay the points with UK, who was ranked themselves last week and remains a good team. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor FINALLY got to open its season last week and for first year coach Dave Aranda, the former defensive coordinator at LSU, it was worth the wait. The Bears made it look easy, beating Kansas 47-14 as a 17-point favorite. Now Aranda probably knows Kansas is as easy an opponent as you’ll find in the Big XII. But last week’s win definitely showed us this Bears team may be better than expected. Last year they were 11-3 in Waco, but no one is expecting a repeat of that in 2020. Still, the Bears do have Charlie Brewer back at QB and ran for over 200 yards last week. West Virginia only wishes it could say that about their offensive performance last week vs. Oklahoma State. But in a game they were pointing to all offseason, the Mountaineers came up well short. They scored only one offensive touchdown in a very disappointing 27-13 loss. While it’s a return to Morgantown this week, home field advantage doesn’t mean in 2020 what it used to and WVU has actually lost its last FIVE Big 12 home games! You can bet Baylor smells “blood in the water” as they seek to win for the first time ever in Morgantown. Off a better than expected performance last week, we’re on the road favorite. The Bears have won five straight times as a road favorite, covering four. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech +24.5 v. BYU | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Louisiana Tech and BYU are both 2-0, but the Cougars have obviously been the more impressive of the two. That’s why they are favored by more than three touchdowns at home Friday night. However, we’re here to say that you should not go discounting the underdogs. La Tech has already gone on the road as an underdog one time and won. Granted, that was vs. Southern Miss, but a “win is a win.” Last week’s 66-38 beatdown over Houston Baptist now looks a bit more impressive in retrospect seeing as the Texas Tech team that almost upset Texas was given a run for their money by that particular FCS opponent. BYU has won 55-3 and 48-7 over Navy and Troy. But this is by far their biggest spread yet. They were only 1-pt favorites against Navy and 14.5-point favorites over Troy. Louisiana Tech isn’t a bad team by any means. They’ve won six straight bowl games and are 12-3 SU L15 games overall. Assuming they do lose for the first time in 2020, it won’t be without a fight. Do not forget BYU was 0-7 ATS as a favorite last season while La Tech is 9-3 ATS the L12 times it has been a dog. The Bulldogs are too good to be getting this kind of number. Play on LA Tech AAA |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -1 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN Denver has made the decision to start Brett Rypien at QB this week. He’ll be their third starter in as many weeks. The Broncos are 0-3 and averaging just 15 points/game. They are off a terrible showing vs. Tampa Bay where they were beaten 28-10 at home and barely gained over 200 yards. BUT…. Thursday night they are up against the Jets, who have been the WORST team in the league through three weeks. The Jets are also 0-3, but all of their losses have been by 10 points or greater. At least you can say Denver has been competitive this year as they lost to Tennessee on a last second field goal and then hung with the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), losing by just five points despite Jeff Driskell being called into emergency QB duty. The Jets only average 12.3 points/game and each loss has gotten progressively worse as they’ve lost by 10, 18 and then 29. Denver is 10-3 ATS their L13 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS after being held to 15 points or less in their last game. While the injuries remain a concern, the Broncos were expected to be competitive this year. Can’t say the same for the Jets as Adam Gase has proven himself to be a horrendous coach. Rypien will play well enough to win here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC What a matchup we have Monday night as it’s the Chiefs taking on the Ravens in a battle of the two top AFC teams. Winner here could very likely have an inside track on home field advantage for the playoffs, which is now more important than ever with the format having changed (only one team gets a first round bye). While Baltimore has won 14 straight regular season games outright (11-2-1 ATS!), all good things must come to an end as KC found out last week when their own 10-game ATS win streak ended with a close overtime victory in LA over the Chargers. The key here is the Chiefs being underdogs. They’ve covered 10 of the last 13 times getting points including 5-0-1 ATS with Mahomes as the starting QB. In the past 20 seasons, defending Super Bowl Champs getting points in the first three weeks of the season have gone a remarkable 11-1 ATS. Last week marked just the second time in Mahomes career that he didn’t cover in the month of September. In 12 career September games, he has an outrageous 28-0 TD-INT ratio! This matchup is a little bit of the “immovable object” against the “irresistible force” and we love the idea of getting points. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This will be a big game in the 4PM (ET) window as the 2-0 Seahawks host the Cowboys. Dallas is very lucky not to be winless after two weeks. Last week, they had an incredible rally from a 19-point deficit that included 16 points in the final five minutes. It’s a good thing they were playing Atlanta as the Falcons seem like one of the few teams capable of blowing a lead like that. Seattle is a different story. Russell Wilson has this team looking very good. They didn’t have any problems with Atlanta, beating them 38-25 in Week 1. Then they came home to defeat New England 35-30 in the Sunday night game last week. The Seahawks offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play so far and it’s not like the Dallas defense has looked all that great. Mike McCarthy isn’t a great coach either. The Dallas offense, despite all the talent, tends to struggle on the road. Remember they lost to the Rams in Week 1 and scored only 17 points. That was the 4th straight road loss for Big D and the offense has failed to score a TD in two of those four losses. In its last 45 drives on the road, the Cowboys have found the end zone a total of five times and three of those were in the fourth quarter of a 31-24 loss at Chicago. They are just 2-7 ATS L9 games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-27-20 | Panthers v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CHARGERS Carolina wasn’t expected to be very good. But with the loss of their best player, things figure to get even worse. RB Christian McCaffery is out for at least the next three weeks. The Panthers have started 0-2 with losses to the Raiders and Buccaneers. Their defense has given up 65 points and now the offense, which turned it over four times last week, has been severely weakened. It is very difficult seeing Carolina breaking into the win column without McCaffery. As for the Chargers, they nearly beat the Chiefs last week and that was despite losing starting QB Tyrod Taylor shortly before kickoff. First round draft pick Justin Herbert stepped up and had a promising pro debut, throwing for over 300 yards. But perhaps more impressive was the defense holding Patrick Mahomes to 20 points in regulation. Were it not for TWO 58-yard field goals from KC’s kicker, the Chargers would have won that game. They’ll win this one - pretty easily in fact. With Carolina’s defense being so bad, the Chargers will have their highest point total to date. With McCaffery out, and the Chargers allowing just 18 PPG, the Panthers aren’t going to score much. Add it up and we’ve got a potential blowout on our hands. Going back to last year, Carolina has lost 10 straight games. They’ve covered just 5 of their last 16 road games. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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09-26-20 | Alabama -27 v. Missouri | Top | 38-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Alabama is a far more talented team than Missouri. But you didn’t need us to tell you that. Still, the oddsmakers are being far too conservative with this Week 1 line as the Tide are going to roll in Columbia. Mizzou has a new coach and just 69 players set to dress Saturday. This seems like a major problem when getting ready to face the #1 team in the country. Alabama, having gone a whole TWO YEARS without winning a National Championship, is likely to be very motivated this season. If there’s one coach that can have his team properly focused during a time like this, it is Nick Saban. As per usual in Tuscaloosa, there are multiple players on the roster projected to be first round draft choices by the NFL. The fact that QB Mac Jones got some playing time last year when Tua was hurt is beneficial. That Missouri’s potential starting QB decided to transfer is not! The Tigers have failed to cover in seven straight SEC games and adding ‘Bama to the schedule certainly didn’t help their cause in 2020. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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09-26-20 | Mississippi State v. LSU -16.5 | Top | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU With the loss of Joe Burrow and countless others, it seems as if a lot of people are “writing off” LSU coming into the season. We’re here to tell you that’s a mistake. One of the most successful programs in all of CFB, the defending champs should be “just fine” in 2020. The Tigers are rated #6 for a reason. They’ll have a great defense again. While 10 SEC games is tough, Mississippi State is an ideal opponent to open against. The Bulldogs have a new coach and while that coach is Mike Leach, this is a very difficult circumstance to implement a brand new offense. For years, we’ve seen a run-based offense in Starkville. Now they are switching to the “Air Raid.” MSU had ZERO spring practices so the preparation for 2020 is about as limited as it gets. Remember that Arkansas made a similar switch from a run-heavy to pass-heavy offense in 2018. They haven’t won an SEC game since! LSU is 18-2 SU vs. Miss State in the 2000’s and has won 13 of the past 14 here in Baton Rouge. The lone home loss occurred in 2014. Even worse is the fact the Bulldogs have failed to cover their last six times as a road underdog. LSU is on a 16-7 ATS run in SEC games. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-26-20 | Texas v. Texas Tech +18.5 | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH #8 Texas is likely feeling pretty good about itself heading into their Big 12 opener. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns opened the season with a 59-3 thrashing of UTEP where the majority of their starters were only on the field for 30 snaps. Here, they face a Texas Tech squad that had a much more difficult time in its opener. The Red Raiders allowed 600+ yards and had to survive a late 2-point try to beat Houston Baptist, a FCS school, 35-33. Now more than a dozen Red Raiders missed that game due to COVID. But just as Tech thought they were near full strength, their starting RB Thompson was arrested! Still though, they’ve got Alan Bowman, who threw for 400+ yards in the opener. This is a lot of points they’re getting in Lubbock and with the exception of last year (when Bowman didn’t suit up), this in-state rivalry has produced mostly close games. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Furthermore, Texas is just 4-4 straight up in its last eight road games with none of the wins coming by greater than 11 points. Texas Tech is 7-1 ATS following a bye week. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA -6.5 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTSA Middle Tennessee is off to a terrible start to the year, losing 42-0 to Army and 47-14 to Troy. We don’t think you can make this line high enough. UTSA is 2-0, having followed up a 51-48 thriller at Texas State with last week’s 24-10 win over Stephen F Austin. Not only has MTSU turned the ball over seven times, they have an unsettled QB situation and the offense is averaging just 212.5 yards/game. They have found themselves in the red zone just two times in two games! UTSA is averaging more than double the yardage of the Blue Raiders, at nearly 500 yards/game and they’ve gone 11 for 11 on red zone opportunities. This is a “makeshift” game that wasn’t even scheduled as of a week ago. UTSA’s originally scheduled opponent (Memphis) had to “pull out” due to COVID concerns. While that makes this a VERY unusual situation to handicap, we think it clearly favors the team in better form. The idea that Middle Tennessee can correct all of its issues in a short week, against an opponent they weren’t supposed to be facing, seems highly unlikely. The Roadrunners are 6-2 ATS their L8 games. Play on UTSA AAA |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on S ALABAMA This will be the second straight time UAB is playing on a Thursday night. Two weeks ago, they went down to Miami. We advised you to fade the Blazers in that spot, noting they’d beaten only ONE FBS team with a winning record all of last season. While there’s no shame in losing to the now-12th ranked team in the country, UAB was pretty much manhandled in the 31-14 defeat in Coral Gables. Their defense was run over to the tune of 337 yards. Now they travel a much shorter distance (in-state) to face a South Alabama side that has definitely turned some heads so far in 2020. The Jaguars season began with a shocking 32-21 upset of Southern Miss on the road. They were double digit underdogs for that one. Next came a close game with Tulane, which they lost 27-24, but still covered as 11.5-point underdogs. That same Tulane team was up 24-0 on Navy this past Saturday before melting down. USA was ahead the entire game until the final 3 minutes and led 24-6 midway through the third quarter. The Jaguars’ passing game, which has employed two QBs, has gone over 300 yards in both games. UAB just lost one of its two QBs (Tyler Johnston III), meaning redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero has to make his first career start on the road. This would be a really big win for South Alabama, who lost in Birmingham last season, 35-3. UAB is just 1-4 ATS its last five road games while USA has covered five straight times as a home dog. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEA Seattle was one of the more impressive teams in Week 1. They beat Atlanta 38-25 and while the defense gave up plenty of yards, that hardly mattered with Russell Wilson playing as well as he did. Wilson threw 4 TD passes and completed 31 of his 35 attempts. The Seahawks won 11 games last year and brought back most of the key pieces. There’s no reason to believe they won’t have another successful season. New England is also accustomed to successful seasons, having had 20 years worth under Bill Belichick. Only now Tom Brady isn’t the QB. Cam Newton is. Newton had a solid start to his Patriots career, giving the offense a rushing dynamic it never had previously, but that was against Miami. Now they face a much stronger opponent and the Seahawks coaching staff still resents the Super Bowl loss from a few years back. This will snap the Patriots’ streak of 64 consecutive regular season games being favored. That makes a lot of sense given Seattle’s continuity plus it is very hard to win here at night. New England’s defense is set to take a hit this year. They lived off turnovers in 2019. While they forced three Miami TO’s last week, Seattle didn’t turn it over once in its opening game. The Patriots have failed to cover five straight times off a win. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-20-20 | 49ers -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Yes, the 49ers have some injury concerns heading into Week 2. But we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty beating the hapless Jets on Sunday. You’ve got two teams that lost last week here. San Francisco’s loss was a surprise as they were 7-point favorites against Arizona. It really wasn’t a surprise to see the Jets go down in Buffalo though. Look past the 27-17 final in that one as the Jets were down 21-0 early in the second quarter and 27-10 before a late 86-yard drive was capped by a meaningless touchdown. Prior to that drive, the Jets had been outgained 404-168. QB Sam Darnold didn’t look very good at all and he lost RB Le’Veon Bell to injury. Coming off a loss, expect last year’s NFC Champs to take advantage. In the last 10 years, playoff teams that lost their season opener have bounced back to go 18-9 ATS in Week 2. The 49ers are 13-7 ATS L20 as road favorites. Furthermore, the old notion of West Coast teams struggling in 1 PM ET kicks appears to be a thing of the past. West Coast teams have won 13 of their last 16 such games while going 11-4-1 ATS. The Jets may be the worst team in the AFC. Lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY GIANTS The Giants lost on Monday Night Football, but actually played the Steelers pretty tough. Had it not been for a 19-play drive ending in a Daniel Jones interception early in the third quarter, the G-men would have likely covered the spread. As for Chicago, well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a 27-23 comeback in Detroit. After looking terrible for three quarters, QB Mitchell Trubisky came alive with three 4th quarter TD passes. If you’re wondering how such a transformation could take place, look no further than the fact the Lions were down their three top cornerbacks. The Bears defense, usually reliable, gave up 426 yards. Really, it was a game that the Bears had no business winning. Adrian Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them, which is shocking, so look for Giants RB Saquon Barkley to bounce back from his poor effort against the Steelers. Chicago laying so many points is definitely an “eye-opener” as they are just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times as a favorite including 0-3 their L3. The Giants are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog the L3 seasons. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers -6 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops here. The Lions are down three defensive starters including both cornerbacks. It was those injuries at CB that allowed for Chicago to stun them last week with a trio of fourth quarter touchdowns. Injuries aren’t limited to the defense either. The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and LG Joe Dahl as well. This is a team that just blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, has lost 10 straight going back to last season and has multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. Now they face one of the best QBs in the league, on the road. The Packers put up 43 points and 500+ yards at Minnesota last week. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit is 1-10 ATS off a loss. They are 0-5 ATS the last four games, four of which they were underdogs in. Somehow the Lions have covered six straight times against the Pack, but that streak comes to an end Sunday as Matt Patricia’s team is in no position to compete right now. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has won a total of 35 games the previous three seasons and lost only four. The Golden Knights enter 2020 ranked #14 and are probably the best “Group of Five” team in the country. They open with Georgia Tech, who upset Florida State last week. Picked to finish last in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets were 13-point underdogs in Tallahassee. So it was a big surprise to start their season. It was a weird game with a 1 hr 45 min weather delay, plus the Seminoles turned the ball over three times. UCF, a more veteran team that has put up 30+ points in every game but one the L3 years, will not be as giving. The Knights are also eager to earn their first ever win in Atlanta. The program is 0-3 all-time vs. Ga Tech, but the last meeting was in 2000. The UCF program is a lot different (better!) now and ready to make a statement vs. a P5 foe. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-8 ATS their L9 home games and 0-5 ATS off their L5 straight up victories. Play on UCF AAA |
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09-19-20 | Navy +7 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy had an absolutely disastrous showing in their season opener. They lost 55-3 to BYU! It was the worst loss in 13 years under Ken Niumatalolo and the head coach took all the blame. "Boy, that game was 1000 percent my fault," Niumatalolo said. "Obviously, we weren't prepared. One team was playing football. There's nobody to blame but myself. I erred on the side of trying to keep our guys safe (from COVID). I'd say it's the worst Navy football game we ever played." With two weeks to prepare, expect a MUCH better effort from the Midshipmen against Tulane. Against BYU, Navy ran for only 149 yards -- the 2nd lowest total ever for Niumatalolo in Annapolis and 211.5 yards below last year’s nation-leading average. Tulane played last week and only won by three (27-24) at South Alabama after initially trailing 24-6 in the third quarter. Now they turn around to face a complicated offense that’s going to produce a lot more than it did in the opener. The Green Wave were outgained last week in Mobile. They are breaking in a new QB and this is a lot of points to lay for a team whose only win over Navy in the L5 years came by a single points. The Midshipmen are 10-1-1 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. Play on NAVY AAA |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCY For the 16th consecutive season, Cleveland is winless entering Week 2. Now there’s no shame in losing Baltimore as the Browns did last week. But opening your season with a 38-6 loss is never good. QB Mayfield is on his third head coach in as many seasons and didn’t look any better, completing just 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards. He threw an INT on the very first drive. The offseason being what it was, teams with new head coaches and lots of personnel turnover are at a disadvantage. Cleveland fits that bill. Now after facing perhaps the best team in the league last week, the Browns now get to face the team that had the worst record in the league last year. But Cincinnati was at least competitive in its Week 1 loss to the Chargers. In fact, they had a chance to win at the end. Joe Burrow, the league’s top draft choice, threw two costly interceptions for the Bengals. Yet they still led most of the game. Cincy beat Cleveland in Week 17 last year, with a different QB obviously. With Burrow and a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals are going to be a much tougher “out” in 2020. They are 8-3 ATS L11 times as a road underdog. Cleveland is untrustworthy in the role of favorite. They lost outright five times as chalk last year including to the Bengals. Take the points Thursday night. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys -3 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 125 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS (MONEY LINE) - only needs to win straight up For a team that finished 8-8, the Cowboys were pretty impressive last season. They had the league’s top ranked offense and +113 point differential. That they couldn’t even make the playoffs was an indictment on their coaching and ability to win close games. The coaching issue was rectified by replacing Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy. A team’s record in close games can vary wildly. Just look at Dallas each of the last two years. In 2018, they were 10-4 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Last year, that record fell to 1-6! The core of that top-ranked offense is not only back, but additional pieces were added. QB Prescott should have a big season. As for the Rams, they are 1-8-1 ATS L10 as a home dog. The myth of the home dog in primetime has largely been debunked anyway. The Rams fell to 9-7 in 2019, a decline of four wins from the previous year. Despite having a better record than Dallas, their point differential was only +30. Unlike the Cowboys, the Rams roster looks a lot weaker this year and another decline in wins is likely. Look for Dallas to win going away. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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09-13-20 | Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHI Washington is a team without a nickname and also without much direction. The front office, as always, is a mess. Ron Rivera has been chosen to lead this sinking ship and it's probably going to take a while until “Riverboat Ron '' gets this one floating again. Second year QB Dwayne Haskins did not have a particularly good rookie season. The Football Team won just three games in 2019, none of them against the division. In fact, they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the past six meetings with the Eagles. The Washington defense allowed points on more than 60% of the possessions it faced last year. There will be no home field edge here as no fans will be present. As we heard in the Thursday night game, even a reduced capacity can be noisy. It’s not just Philly that Washington struggles against. They have lost their last 10 NFC East games, covering the number just one time. No clue why this number has been bet down (as of Saturday). The Eagles own Washington and that figures to be the case again here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -109 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season and comes in ranked #10 in the country. The only ACC team ranked higher is #1 Clemson. The Fighting Irish’s season begins at home in South Bend vs. Duke. This first “conference” challenge should be an easy one for Brian Kelly’s team, who won 11 games last season. Duke was just 5-7 in 2019. Though this is the first time (and probably last?) the schools will meet as “conference opponents,” they are familiar with one another. Last year, the Irish went into Durham and killed the Blue Devils 38-7 as seven-point favorites as QB Book threw four touchdown passes. Book, who finished with a 38-6 TD-INT ratio, is back to lead the Irish offense again this season. About 16,000 fans will be present Saturday afternoon in South Bend, so there is still a home field edge for a ND team that is 13-0 on this field the L2 years. Duke’s new starting QB is Chase Brice, a grad transfer from Clemson that hasn’t gotten much practice time with his new team due to the unusual summer. Center Jack Wohlabaugh just tore a knee ligament on Sept 1, complicating matters even further. Don’t hesitate to lay this number as the Fighting Irish should win big. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse +23 v. North Carolina | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -104 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SYRACUSE North Carolina went 7-6 straight up last season, a vast improvement on their 2-9 SU record the year before. The improvement was due to a combination of better luck and the return of Mack Brown as head coach. Syracuse, meanwhile, finished second to last in the Atlantic Division last year with a 5-7 overall record (2-6 in ACC). The Orange had won 10 games in 2018, so it was very much the reverse trend of what we saw in Chapel Hill. The ACC is using a “division-less” format for the 2020 season and adds Notre Dame to the mix. UNC is the third highest ranked team, behind only Clemson and the Irish. Though not much is expected from Dino Babers’ crew, don’t be surprised if they give UNC a run for its money in this season opener. Two years ago, the Orange won 40-38 in a double overtime game at the Carrier Dome. There is some question over who will be carrying the ball for Syracuse as the top two running backs on the depth chart both reportedly have opted out. But North Carolina had to deal with a five-day break in practice a couple weeks ago due to COVID-19. Syracuse has covered 11 of the last 16 times it has been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State -11 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on IOWA STATE Iowa State has delivered three straight winning seasons for Matt Campbelll. This is not exactly a program accustomed to that kind of “success.” The previous four years, including Campbell’s first on the job, all saw the Cyclones win three or fewer games. But now they’ve firmly established themselves as part of the Big XII’s upper tier. They open the season with Louisiana Lafayette, who won 11 games in 2019. Of course, playing in the Sun Belt is a lot different than the Big XII. The Ragin Cajuns probably aren’t going to end up with that kind of record in 2020, although they are the most experienced team in their league and a threat to repeat as Western Division Champs. But beating Iowa State seems out of the question as the Cyclones have even better offensive talent with the returning QB Purdy (3,982 yds in ‘19) and RB Hall (averaged 100+ YPG L8 wks). They enter the year ranked #23, but we feel they are even better than that. There will be 25,000 fans present in Ames Saturday, giving ISU some semblance of “home field advantage.” We think the spread for this game “speaks volumes” as oddsmakers are saying a Louisiana team no one is taking lightly will still get beaten by double digits. We agree. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That game started great for the Texans. They were up 24-0 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, the Chiefs outscored them 51-7 and went on to win the franchise’s 2nd Super Bowl. As the defending Super Bowl Champion, the Chiefs open the season at home on Thursday night. Save for last year, this has been the practice going back to 2004. The SB Champ has lost only two of the 15 times it has played on Opening Night. One of the losses was a weak Giants team (game was actually played on Weds due to Democratic National Convention). The other was three years ago when the Patriots lost … to the Chiefs. Not even spotting the Texans 24 points could prevent the Chiefs from winning by double digits in January. Houston figures to be weaker in 2020 as they lost Pro Bowl wideout DeShaun Watson, not to mention they were an extremely lucky 10-win team a year ago. They led at halftime in only six of their games and just two of their wins were by more than eight points. They went 5-1 SU in games decided by a field goal or less. Kansas City has covered its last eight games and should have its way with a weaker version of a team they beat by 17 points in the playoffs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -13.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI UAB and Miami are set to hook it up Thursday night in Coral Gables. This game was originally set for next Thursday, but was bumped up a week due to COVID-19 wreaking havoc on all the schedules. UAB was a 9-win team a year ago and made the C-USA Championship Game. But consider for a moment the fact the Blazers beat only ONE FBS team with a winning record. Now had they faced Miami, that number wouldn’t have changed as the Hurricanes are off a tremendously disappointing 6-7 season under Manny Diaz that ended with an embarrassing 14-0 shutout by La Tech in the Independence Bowl. This year, “The U” promises to be a whole lot better though. D’Eriq King has transferred in to play quarterback. Two years ago, when he was with Houston, King led the entire FBS with 50 touchdown passes. The defense is going to be outstanding. UAB already played a game, but it was an unimpressive 45-35 win over Central Arkansas where they turned the ball over three times. If they gave up that many points to a FCS opponent, imagine how much they’ll give up here. UAB has covered just 1 of the previous 5 times it has been a road underdog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Memphis is a big favorite Saturday and justifiably so as they are coming off a 12-2 season last year and have won seven straight season openers. Arkansas State went 8-5 SU in 2019 and has now won at least 7 games in each of Blake Anderson’s six seasons here. But the Red Wolves are badly outclassed in this one. Their defense gave up 34.2 points/game and 6.1 yards/play last year and has just three starters back. Memphis is likely to be the best offense they see all season. Though the head coach left, the schemes and key contributors on the field largely remain the same for the Tigers. QB White leads an offense that has averaged over 40 points/game each of the previous three seasons. Memphis was 7-0 at the Liberty Bowl last season, winning most of those games by double digits. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY (Money Line) Both Middle Tennessee and Army are expected to be improved in 2020. For Middle Tennessee, the bounce back seems logical. Two years ago they were 7-1 in Conference USA and came up just 2 points shy of the Title Game. Losing QB Stockstill last season (graduation) had a real impact as they fell all the way down to 4-8 overall, ending a 7-year bowl run. It’s a similar deal for Army, who went 11-2 SU two years ago only to drop to 5-8 SU last season. These teams combined to go 1-7 straight up in one score games in 2019. Only one can win here though and we think that will be Army. This game was not originally on the schedule and preparing for the triple option is tough even when you know that it's coming. Middle Tennessee’s defense was bad last year as they were bottom 20 in the country in yards allowed. They have just three returning starters. On offense, the Blue Raiders are missing their top two running backs, both of whom opted out. Army is 5-1-1 ATS in September the last two seasons. MTSU is 2-5 ATS. Play on ARMY (money line) AAA |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTHERN MISS So Southern Mississippi is a decided favorite over South Alabama and we can’t say that we’re surprised. South Alabama has won all of five games the previous two seasons and was 2-10 SU in 2019. Head coach Steve Campbell really needs to show improvement in year three. The only problem is he’s got just 11 starters back from a team that wasn’t good in the first place. The Jaguars enter 2020 pretty thin along both lines - offensive and defensive. Southern Miss has gone 28-22 SU in four years under Jay Hopson. QB Abraham is back leading an offense that put up 6.1 yards per play last season. The Golden Eagles have covered five of the last seven games against the Sun Belt, though this is the first-ever meeting with South Alabama. USA did not have a good offense last year. Though they showed signs late, the Jaguars still ended up averaging just 18.4 points/game. We look for Southern Miss to control in the trenches and their pass rush should get after South Alabama QB Trotter. Play on Southern Miss AAA |
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01-19-20 | Titans +9 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee will seek to become the first 9-7 team to make the Super Bowl since the Giants in 2011. So far they have knocked off the Patriots and Ravens, both on the road. That’s the defending Super Bowl Champs and the team that finished with the best record in the league this year. Considering how well the Titans have played since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB (gone 9-3), we just don’t think they should be getting this many points. We were dead wrong to go against them last week in Baltimore. A key edge for Tennessee against Kansas City is the running game with Derrick Henry. Henry has already run for 377 yards in two playoff games. He ran for 188 more in Week 10 over the Chiefs. In three career games vs. Kansas City, all of them wins, Henry has run well. The Chiefs defense has consistently been bad against the run this year as it ranks 26th in yards per game and 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Tennessee is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 meetings vs. Kansas City including a playoff upset here at Arrowhead back in 2017. The Chiefs were able to storm back from a 24-0 deficit last week against Houston and score 51 points. But the Titans are much stronger defensively than the Texans are. Baltimore and New England combined for just 25 points against them. For the year, they give up just 19.8 points/game and were even better than that on the road. Not saying the Titans win outright, but they’ll cover the spread. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU -5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 225 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU It seems like forever ago that LSU put forth an unbelievable offensive display against Oklahoma, scoring 49 points in the first half on their way to an easy 63-28 win as two-touchdown favorites in the Peach Bowl. Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow threw seven touchdown passes - before halftime! Meanwhile, Clemson should feel lucky to be in New Orleans for this battle of 14-0 Tigers. They were down 16-0 to Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl, only to make a stunning rally, seemingly brought upon a targeting penalty that went against the Buckeyes. As we had the Under, the Tigers defense should be complimented for holding OSU to just 23 points, but they also gave up over 500 yards. They basically gained 100 fewer yards than the Buckeyes and virtually all of their yards gained came on the four touchdown drives. That doesn't sound like a winning formula to beat LSU. While we expect Clemson to play better, the fact this game takes place in New Orleans does them no favors as it will be a virtual home game for LSU, who is laying a shockingly low number all things considered. Play on LSU AAA |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens -9 | Top | 28-12 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on BALTIMORE Tennessee shocked a lot of people, including us, when they went into Foxboro last Saturday and upset New England. The 20-13 win saw them pass for only 71 yards, but run for 200+. They were slightly outgained and got a defensive TD in the final minute (went for 2 pt conversion and missed it) to put the game away. The Titans are now 8-3 SU since Ryan Tannehill became the starter but will need a lot more from him and the rest of the offense this week as they face a far greater challenge in Baltimore. Unlike the Patriots, the Ravens do not struggle to score. Led by likely MVP Lamar Jackson, they led the league in scoring at 33.2 points/game. The Ravens have not lost since Week 4 (to Cleveland!) and eight of those 12 victories have come by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the defense has given up over 20 points just two times in the 12-game win streak. We just can't see the Titans offense scoring enough, or the defense limiting the Ravens enough, to stay inside the spread Saturday. Tennessee had to win its last regular season game just to get into the playoffs. They are 4-11 ATS the last three years when coming off consecutive wins. The franchise is just 2-7 ATS its last nine chances in the Divisional Round and 6-seeds have really struggled in this round, going 5-19 SU all-time with eight straight losses. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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01-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -130 | 74 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA It seems like the Vikings win over the Saints on Wild Card Weekend caught a lot of people by surprise. They did it with defense. Aside from the gimmickery of Taysom Hill, who threw a 50-yard pass and ran for another 50, New Orleans was held to just 224 yards and they got three points off an early Minnesota fumble. A similar defensive effort will be needed this week against the top seeded 49ers, who are rested coming off their bye. San Francisco was the best team in the NFC during the regular season. But if you look at their defensive numbers down the stretch, cracks did begin to show. Over the first seven games, SF never allowed more than 20 points and gave up an average of just 11 points/game (started 7-0). Ever since, they've allowed 20+ in eight of nine games and an average of 25.8 points/game. They've also lost three times. While some of the 49ers players have postseason experience, many don't and this is their first playoff game together as a group. We think it's pretty clear Minnesota is still being undervalued despite last week's win, which was the first time ever under Mike Zimmer they'd been getting seven or more points in a game. Say what you will about QB Kirk Cousins, but he played well last week. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH +14 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Its seems as if no one is really giving Miami much of a chance in Monday's Lending Tree Bowl. But the RedHawks should be pretty used to that by now. They were underdogs in the MAC Championship Game and won that outright, beating Central Michigan 26-21. Even getting to play for the MAC Championship seemed like a pipe dream when Miami was 1-3, but looking back, those losses were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State (all 10+ win teams). One of the two conference losses was the final regular season game where the RedHawks had nothing to play for and sat starters. In something that is truly stunning, Miami has been a favorite in only two games all year! Those were against Akron and Bowling Green. As an underdog, they are 7-4 ATS, winning outright six times. So while Louisiana finished the regular season with one of the best overall ATS marks (9-4), it's a lot of points to lay to a team well-versed in the underdog role. Two of the Ragin Cajuns three losses were to Appalachian State, the other to Mississippi State. Certainly, we can see them winning this game, but the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for here is too high. Miami has a good defense that makes plenty of tackles for loss. Play MIAMI OH AAA |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Due to injuries and an inferior record, the Eagles seem to be getting written off here. That's a mistake. They still have the home field advantage and that's big. Seattle did well for itself on the road this year, but has not done well in the playoffs when having to leave the Pacific Northwest. Eight of the franchise's last 10 playoff road games have ended in defeat and one of those wins was the infamous game in Minnesota where Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip shot field goal. Home underdogs are pretty rare in the NFL Playoffs and we haven't seen one in the Wild Card Round since 2015. But the Eagles are 5-0 STRAIGHT UP all-time in the postseason as a home dog and four of those wins have been by at least 13 points. Under Doug Pederson, they are 8-4 ATS getting points (regular season or playoffs) including 5-0 in the playoffs where they've won four of the five on the field. Since 1990, there have been eight instances of a team with a 9-7 or worse record hosting a team with at least 11 wins. The home team has gone 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 against the spread in those games. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND New England comes into these playoffs with the longest Super Bowl odds (20/1) that they've ever had during the Belichick/Brady regime. While it's true that the offense has not flashed the form we're accustomed to seeing, it's hard to pass up the opportunity to lay such a small number with the Patriots in Foxboro against Ryan Tannehill. The Pats still have the best defense in football even after laying an egg against Miami in Week 17. They gave up only 14.1 points/game and 275.7 yards/game. Both were league bests. They are also "money" as a home favorite of this season. The last three seasons have seen NE go 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS when laying anywhere from -3.5 to -7 in Foxboro. If you go all the way back to 2001, Brady's first year as a starting QB, the team is 72-17 straight up and 61-24-4 ATS (71.8%!) laying seven points or less at home. We know Ryan Tannehill had a career year and made the Titans offense better. But he's still Ryan Tannehill and we're not about to bet that he can beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. Lay it! Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 78 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This was probably the best possible Wild Card matchup for the Texans. They are facing an inexperienced QB and an offense that averaged just 19.6 points/game in the regular season. While Houston's defense nosedived in the second half of the season, that was directly tied to the loss of superstar JJ Watt. Watt is now back on the active roster and will play Saturday. So will QB DeShaun Watson after he sat out a meaningless final regular season game. Houston is simply more talented than Buffalo and is laying a short number at home. The Bills defensive numbers may look great, but realize they beat only one playoff team and that with the Titans before they made the QB switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. That was also Week 5! The Bills offense has not scored more than 17 points in any of its last four games. They were held under 20 points in more than half their games. That simply won't get it done this time of year. Five starts against playoff teams this year yielded only a 51.6% completion percentage and 5.5 yards per attempt for Buffalo QB Josh Allen. The Bills averaged just 14 points in those games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss +7.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN MISS Southern Miss is an underdog here against Tulane, but given the way the Green Wave played down the stretch, this sure looks like too many points for them to lay here. Losers of five of the past six games, including the last three, Tulane didn’t beat many good teams. Their one victory over a bowl team was the season opener vs. FIU. Since then, they’ve gone 0-6 and covered the spread just twice. Obviously both covers came as underdogs. Southern Miss saw its regular season end with two straight losses. They turned the ball over eight times in those two losses, which cost them a chance to win the Conference USA West Division. We expect the Golden Eagles to be slightly more motivated as they were not picked for a bowl last season despite winning six games. They easily could win here, so why not take the points? These schools used to be regular rivals, but have met only twice since 2006. Southern Miss not only won both of those, they’ve beaten Tulane six times in a row. Play on SOUTHERN MISS AAA |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana +3 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana is looking for its first bowl win since 1991. That's easily the longest drought among Power 5 teams. We had to look it up, but the Hoosiers are the ONLY P5 team not to have won a bowl this century. Only two other P5 teams have failed to win a bowl going back to 2008 (Kansas, Colorado). So if you don't think this game means a lot to IU, then you're kidding yourself. It's just the fifth bowl appearance since that last win in 1991. Tennessee is back in a bowl after a two year hiatus. Prior to the hiatus, they'd won three straight bowl games. Neither team had many good wins during the regular season. Generally speaking, they'd win the games they were "supposed to" and lost when they were an underdog. For us, it boils down to Indiana's high level of motivation and the fact they are now an underdog after opening as the favorite. The Hoosiers can score more than the Volunteers (32.6 vs. 24.3 points/game). Tennessee has failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times it has been a favorite. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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01-02-20 | Boston College +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE Throughout this bowl season, we've seen bettors make the mistake of overreacting to players sitting out. Look at what happened last night with Georgia. Boston College is the next team dealing with a key absence as their star running back A.J. Dillon is getting ready for the NFL Draft. The Eagles also fired their coach at the end of the regular season and will play for an interim today. But don't be surprised when they show up ready to play in Birmingham. By upsetting Pittsburgh in the final game of the regular season, the BC players showed that playing in a bowl is important to them. We had the Eagles in that spot. We'll take the points with them again here as Cincinnati could very well be disinterested in this game after losing its Conference Championship, which cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. While they had a good season (10 wins), there have been only two times in the last six games where the Bearcats won by more than a touchdown. A dangerous number to lay with a potentially disinterested team and Boston College has covered nine in a row when getting between 3.5 and 10 points (5-0 ATS this year). Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA The fact that Alabama is laying only a touchdown here kinda "stinks" but we feel they shouldn't have much trouble with Michigan. This is a spot the Wolverines consistently come up short in every time. Under Jim Harbaugh, they have been terrible as underdogs going 0-6 the last three years while covering just twice. Three of those losses came this year including losses by 21 to Wisconsin and 29 to Ohio State. The Wolverines prospects look even bleaker when you consider that the Big 10 is just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS vs. the SEC in bowls since 2015. Even with backup QB Mac Jones starting in place of the injured Tua, Bama will move the ball and score plenty in the Citrus Bowl. Against Auburn, Jones threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns by completing 26 of his 39 pass attempts. The Tide's offensive line should push around an undersized Michigan defensive front. Both teams have to get over the disappointment of not being in the Playoff, but Michigan has never shown that it can beat a team of Alabama's caliber. It could get ugly in a hurry in Orlando. Play ALABAMA AAA |
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12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Herm Edwards has proven to be a good hire for Arizona State. But his teams have tended to perform better when in the underdog role. The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS as favorites this year and lost half of those games straight up. Its five wins over Power 5 opponents have been by an average of just 5.4 points/game. So we clearly don't like them in this spot as they're laying points to what should be a motivated Florida State team in the Sun Bowl. The Seminoles can only hope Mike Norvell, who moves over from Memphis, can be the kind of coach Edwards has been for ASU. But for this game they'll be playing for an interim, Odell Haggins, who at least gets to stay on Norvell's staff. Both teams are going to be without their starting running backs here as Cam Akers and Eno Benjamin have elected to get ready for the NFL Draft instead of play this game and risk injury. There are going to be other key absences for the Sun Devils. WR/KR Brandon Aiyuk is also going pro. Their defensive coordinator also left to be the head coach at New Mexico. Grab the points in this one. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY Unless folks are feeling extra sentimental over the swan song of long time Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster, we don't understand this line move at all. Obviously, Foster's defense is going to want to send him out a winner. But you can look for the Hokies to struggle to contain UK quarterback Lynn Bowden, whose college career is also coming to an end in this game (going pro). Since Bowden became the starter, this Wildcats offense has been much better. They've averaged an amazing 352 rush yards/game. While the vast majority of the talk about defense will center around Va Tech and Foster leaving, the irony is that Kentucky has the better stop unit. They allow 18.4 points/game (Virginia Tech allowing 23.7), which is 12th best in the country. SEC team averaged only 330 yards/game vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats were something of a pointspread juggernaut this year going 9-3 against the spread. Virginia Tech is 1-6 straight up and against the spread its last seven games with a spread of three points or less. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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12-30-19 | Illinois +6.5 v. California | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Illinois Illinois is in a bowl for the first time under Lovie Smith, snapping what was a five-year drought. They last won a bowl game back in 2011. So what this team may lack in talent, it makes up for in motivation. During the regular season, the Illini went 6-1 ATS when they were underdogs and they won three of those games outright, all at +9.5 or higher. On the other side, there were only three times in the regular season where California was listed higher than -2 when facing a FBS team. They went 0-3 ATS in them and lost outright twice. So we're not sure why the Bears are laying so many here. Injuries were a big story for both teams this year and continue to be heading into the bowl game. Cal will be without three starters, the most important being safety Ashtyn Davis, who also doubled as a kick returned. For Illinois, both WR Josh Imatorbhebhe and LB Jake Hansen are gametime decisions. However, the Illini got great news with QB Peters being cleared to play. Disregard the way each team's regular season ended. This is a far more even matchup than the oddsmakers are letting on. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-29-19 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO The final Sunday night game of the NFL's regular season will decide who wins the NFC West and who will have home field advantage for the playoffs on the NFC side. If you ask us, San Francisco deserves both accolades. They have not only a much better point differential than Seattle; they have been the best team in the NFC all year. The 12-3 49ers have outscored opponents by 164 points. The 11-4 Seahawks have outscored their opponent by only 12 points. The key to Seattle's season has been a 10-1 record in games decided by eight points or fewer. The most critical of those wins came Week 10 in San Francisco, 27-24 in overtime. That has them in position to win the division because of head to head tiebreaker. But they have to win this game. We don't see that happening. The Seahawks have lost two of their last three games. Both losses were bad and against NFC West teams. They lost by two touchdowns last week to Arizona at home. Injuries have hit both of these teams hard late in the season, but Seattle's RB group is so decimated that they were forced to sign Marshawn Lynch! Niners TE George Kittle did not play the first time these teams met. Seattle's defense actually gives up 29.0 points/game at home. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA We've watched as this line has gone up ... and up. After thinking some, it's just too high. Oklahoma isn't a team you'll find too often in the underdog role, let alone getting this many points. Ironically, it has happened each of the last two years in the Playoff. Last year they lost to Alabama 45-33 but covered a spread that was pretty similar to this one. The year before they did not cover but were a small underdog to Georgia and that game went to double overtime. The Sooners only loss this year was by seven points (at Kansas State). QB Jalen Hurts has previous Playoff experience with Alabama. LSU's Heisman winner Joe Burrow is making his first Playoff appearance. Not going to sit here and tell you that LSU has any glaring weaknesses (because they don't). But this is too many points to lay to an Oklahoma team that averages 43.2 points/game, a comparable number to LSU's more ballyhooed offense. Look for this game to be decided by single digits. An injury at RB definitely won't help the favored Tigers. Oklahoma's defense is much improved from a season ago. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS A&M A lot of bettors might feel that a spread approaching a touchdown seems like a lot for what looks a matchup of two "evenly matched teams" in the Texas Bowl. But all five of Texas A&M's losses this year were to Top 10 teams (LSU, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama & Auburn) and three of the five teams were ranked #1 at the time the Aggies played them! Safe to say, you won't find a team that took on a more challenging schedule. Some of those lsses were "stinkers," the LSU game especially, but Oklahoma State is not in the same class as those aforementioned opponents. The Cowboys faced only four ranked foes this year and lost to three of them. Much is made that they have the nation's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard (1936 yards), but Texas A&M's Isaiah Spiller softens the blow of teammate Cordarrian Richardson missing this game. Speaking of absences, OK State won't have leading receiver Tylan Wallace. QB Spencer Sanders will play, but he missed the last two regular season games after undergoing thumb surgery. Mike Gundy has been excellent in bowl games, winning seven of the last nine and three in a row. But so has Jimbo Fisher, who is 6-2 SU with a 52-13 win last year. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh v. Eastern Michigan +13 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN It seems as if the narrative surrounding this bowl game is that it's "Pitt's to lose." They are obviously the more talented team and are led by a defense that has 49 sacks and 98 tackles for loss. But will the Panthers be motivated? They did not have a good finish to the regular season, losing to Virginia Tech and Boston College by a combined score of 54-19 in the final two games. That dropped them down the ACC pecking order and gave them this less than desirable bowl locale. But Eastern Michigan isn't complaining as Detroit is just 36 miles from their campus in Ypsilanti. So it's a home game of sorts for them. It's also another chance to notch their first bowl win since 1987 (California Raisin). That's the program's one and only bowl win. They've had two chances in the last three years, but came up just short both times. They lost last year's Camellia Bowl by two points to Georgia Southern and 2016's Bahamas Bowl by four points to Old Dominion. But they did cover both of those games. This is the just fourth bowl ever for the Eagles and the first time they've ever been bowling in consecutive years. So motivation will not be an issue for them. We're not even sure Pitt has an offense capable of covering a double digit spread. They only average 20.1 points/game. The Eastern Michigan offense is led by QB Mike Glass, who completed over 67% of his pass attempts and seven different receivers had more than 20 catches. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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12-24-19 | BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BYU Obviously, this is a home game for Hawaii. But that doesn't necessarily guarantee victory on its own. The Warriors last four bowl appearances have all come in the Hawaii Bowl and three of them have resulted in losses. The most recent was last year to Louisiana Tech, 31-14. We think BYU is disciplined enough to avoid the distractions of going out to Honolulu for Christmas Ever and come away with a victory here. The Cougars are 7-5 with wins over Tennessee, USC and Boise State. Hawaii has the edge on offense with QB McDonald, but BYU is better defensively by a wider margin. In the last three games, BYU allowed just 277 yards/game. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any game since October. The Hawaii defense gives up 6.9 yards per play. While BYU scored only three points against San Diego State in the regular season finale, that was against one of the top defenses in the country and they actually rolled up over 400 yards (couldn't finish drives). One final thing to consider is that Hawaii turned the ball over 30 times in 14 games. Their turnover margin for the year was worse than all but three teams in the entire FBS. Play on BYU AAA |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Barring the Packers losing both this week and next week, the Vikings are going to be a Wild Card team in the NFC. Seeing as Green Bay plays at Detroit next week (Lions have lost eight in a row), it's highly unlikely that they lose out. But Minnesota can accomplish half the task at hand simply by winning tonight as they host the Packers. Green Bay hasn't won in this stadium since it opened and despite their 11-3 record this season, there's a lot of reason to be suspicious of this team. Only four of their 11 wins have been by more than one score. Statistically, they rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense. The Vikings are 6-0 at home, winning those games by an average of nearly two touchdowns per game. It's not just Minnesota where GB has struggled either. They are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five dome games. The Vikings offense is averaging 29.4 points its last 10 games despite receiver Adam Thielen missing much of that time. So don't expect them to skip a beat with RB Cook sitting this week. The Vikings did lose at Lambeau Field back in Week 2, 21-16, but actually dominated that game statistically. This is their chance at revenge. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-22-19 | Lions +7 v. Broncos | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -109 | 88 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT Detroit has definitely fallen on hard times. Seven straight losses (NFL's longest losing streak) amidst a myriad of injuries is tough. The team has actually lost 10 of its last 11 games since a 2-0-1 start. While we would be slightly surprised if the Lions were to win this week, we're also not about to lay a touchdown with a Denver team starting a rookie QB that is 5-9 and just lost 23-3. While the Broncos did win Drew Lock's first two starts, they did not look good last week. Yes, that was against the Chiefs. But here's the issue. This team is not accustomed to laying points. They've been an underdog eight straight weeks. They've been favored in only three games all year. Two of those three times resulted in losses. Not just ATS losses, but SU losses. Half of the Broncos games this year have been decided by seven points or fewer. Five of the seven that weren't were losses. So that's just two wins by more than a touchdown all year. We realize Detroit is struggling. But they can stay close here as they're facing a team that doesn't often blow teams out. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS the last 18 times they've been favored. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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12-22-19 | Ravens v. Browns +11.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -135 | 85 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND Even for Baltimore, this is too many points to lay to a Cleveland team that has been favored each of its last seven games. Now the Browns haven't done all that well as chalk - at least when they were the road team. Last week they lost at Arizona, their fifth straight road loss. But they've won four straight games here at home. They've also already beaten Baltimore this year - on the road. That was the Ravens last loss - it was all the way back in Week 4 - and probably the Browns best played game of the year. It was 40-25 game where the Browns were a seven-point road dogs. Now they are 10-point home dogs. Not saying there shouldn't be some shifting by the oddsmakers for this rematch. After all, the Ravens are playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs while the Browns postseason hopes are on life support. But unless Cleveland is prepared to quit on coach Freddie Kitchens - and we don't think that's the case - this is too many points for the Browns to be getting at home. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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12-21-19 | Rams +7 v. 49ers | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 68 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS You have to feel a bit for the Rams. They've got the same exact point differential as Seattle (+26) yet are three games back in the NFC West, even though they split two games with the Seahawks. Things appeared to be trending up in LA after they beat Seattle 28-12 two weeks ago, on a Sunday night. But then came last week's result. In what was our 10* NFL Game of the Year, Dallas destroyed the Rams 44-21, all but ending the Rams hopes of making the playoffs. In taking the Cowboys, even we did not think it would be that easy as it would end up being. Two of the Rams touchdowns came in the final three minutes when the game was out of reach. But San Francisco lost last week too and that was far more surprising. The 49ers were at home and double digit favorites against a bad Atlanta team. This was the Niners third loss in the last six weeks after an 8-0 start. Seven starters missed last week's game due to injuries. CB's Sherman and Williams are both set to return this week, but we don't like the Niners laying this many points to a desperate Rams team. This is the first time since Week 4 of the 2017 season that a Rams team not resting starters has gotten at least six points. They won that last time outright. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-21-19 | Washington -3.5 v. Boise State | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON The only Saturday bowl game with any sort of "national appeal" goes down in Las Vegas with Washington taking on #19 Boise State. There is a tremendous storyline for this game as Chris Petersen, who built the Boise State program to national prominance, will be coaching his final game at Washington. While Boise is the ranked team, we agree with the oddsmakers that Washington is better. Yes, it was a disappointing 7-5 season for Petersen in Seattle. But four of those five losses came by six points or less and two of them were blown leads against Oregon and Utah. As a favorite, the Huskies are 7-3 straight up and against the spread. Boise State has the better record (12-1) but that was against a much weaker schedule than what Washington faced. The Mountain West was pretty down this year. The Broncos may be a little disappointed from getting left out of a "New Year's Six" bowl. We also question how much they'll want to beat their former coach in his final game! Washington has lost its last three bowls, so their motivation will be through the roof in Petersen's final game. The defensive numbers of these two teams are pretty similar, but remember Washington faced a much tougher slate of offenses. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-21-19 | Liberty +5 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 88 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY The Cure Bowl in Orlando pits 7-5 Liberty against 7-5 Georgia Southern. Liberty is an independent (no conference affiliation) and it's pretty impressive they got to a bowl in just their second season at the FBS level. The Flames don't exactly have the most impressive resume as they were just 1-4 against bowl teams, but we like Hugh Freeze's team getting points here. Georgia Southern also got here by mostly beating up the weaklings on their schedule. They were 5-3 in the Sun Belt. Without question, their most impressive win came on a Thursday night at Appalachian State. The Eagles were the only team to beat the Mountaineers in the regular season. Outside of that signature win though, there doesn't seem to be much difference between GSU and Liberty. The Eagles do have the nation's eighth ranked rushing offense and are 2-0 all-time in bowls. But they are averaging only 23.3 points/game on the road, making them a shaky favorite. Look for Liberty to stay inside the number. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 67 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Two schools that have never even won a bowl game kick off the 2019-20 bowl season as Buffalo takes on Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. This is Charlotte's first ever bowl game. The 49ers have only been playing football since 2013 and got to the FBS level in 2015. This, their fifth season in Conference USA, proved to be their first winning campaign as they finished a surprising 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference play. They are one of seven Conference USA teams in a bowl. Buffalo also brings a 7-5 record to the Bahamas. They were 5-3 in the MAC and one of seven teams from that conference to get into a bowl game. The Bulls are 0-3 SU all-time in bowls, the most recent loss coming last year in the Dollar General Bowl, 42-32, as a one-point favorite to Troy. We'll lean on UB's previous bowl experience as a motivating factor plus they have the better defense. The Bulls allow less than 300 yds/game and set a school record with 38 sacks. Charlotte's defense allows significantly more points and yards and is going to have to figure out a way to stop a Buffalo offense that reached 40 points in each of its last four wins. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-15-19 | Rams v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 90 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS The Cowboys have nosedived, losing three in a row for the second time this season. If they were in any other division, their playoff chances might be toast. But the NFC East is a different story. Dallas is still tied with Philadelphia atop the division despite both teams being just 6-7. Next week's game in Philly is likely to determine who makes the playoffs. But more pressing for the 'Boys is this week's home game vs. the Rams. Unlike their opponents, LA comes in with plenty of confidence. They just thwarted the Seahawks 28-12 on Sunday Night Football. But we're still willing to back the Cowboys in this one. The lookahead line had them laying four points. As a result of not only their loss last Thursday (to the Bears), but what the Rams did to Seattle, the line has moved considerably. A couple weeks ago, Dallas not being favored here would have been considered crazy. This is a team that's been an underdog just one time all season and that was at New England where they covered the spread. Remember it was only a few weeks ago when the Rams looked to have more questions than answers as they'd been held to just 35 points over a three-game stretch, which included a humiliating 45-6 home loss at the hands of Baltimore. The Cowboys probably played their worst game of the season last week in Chicago. They've had extra time to prepare here and were 2-0 ATS as a home dog last year, winning both games outright. They are healthy and lead the league in total offense. This is a classic "buy low" situation. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee and Houston will play twice over the next three weeks and those two games figure to decide who wins the AFC South. The Titans have come back from the dead, led by Ryan Tannehill, to win six of their last seven games. Both teams are 8-5 on the year. Houston is off a very ugly loss to Denver last week, leaving real questions about where it stands right now. Though we're talking same records, the Titans have a much better point differential. They are +63 while the Texans are only +8. Which do you think is more indicative of a division winner? This first meeting is in Tennessee where the Titans have won four in a row. In Tannehill's seven starts, the Titans offense ranks #2 in the league in scoring. They have scored 31 or more points four straight games. Houston hasn't scored more than 31 points in its last seven games. The Titans have the better defense as well, which is even more true now that J.J. Watt is out for the Texans. Houston has failed to cover eight of the last nine times it has faced a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens -15.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 10* on BALTIMORE After a couple of close calls with San Francisco and Buffalo, the Ravens should have little difficulty blowing past the Jets Thursday night. We say that knowing full well that QB Lamar Jackson has been bothered by a hamstring injury this week. But the MVP candidate still has more than enough support to get him through this game, against one of the league's worst teams. The Jets could barely get by the Dolphins last week. That's a team Baltimore defeated in Week 1 by a score of 59-10. It's been nine straight wins for the Ravens, five of those coming by 14 points or more. New York simply does not have the capability to hang with the league's highest scoring team. Yes, the Jets have had some big offensive games this year, but those were all against bad teams. This is a team that lost by 16 points to a winless Cincinnati team the last time it was on the road. They are 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Ravens are 1st in scoring and 2nd in total offense. The Jets are 29th and 31st. Total mismatch. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-08-19 | Steelers -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Because they are down to their third string quarterback, who is a rookie that came from a FCS school, the Steelers are not being taken all that seriously as playoff contenders. But compared to most teams, they are better suited to still make a run. They shouldn't have much trouble beating the 3-8-1 Cardinals this week. Pittsburgh's success starts with a defense that is allowing just 18.8 points/game. Only five teams allow fewer. Only four allow fewer than the 317.2 yards/game allowed. Now compare that to Arizona, who is last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points. Devlin "Duck" Hodges won the Walter Payton Award last year at Samford. That award is given out annually to the top offensive player in the FCS. Moving forward, Hodges is a better option than Mason Rudolph for Mike Tomlin. The Cardinals have just three wins and they are by a combined 10 points. The last one came on October 20th. They aren't going to beat the Steelers. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-08-19 | Titans -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-08-19 | 49ers +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-46 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO It doesn't happen often, but both teams are 10-2. This is only the fifth such matchup in the last 35 seasons and the first since 2005. San Francisco lost a tough one last week to Baltimore to drop to 10-2. New Orleans won on Thanksgiving, though they didn't make it easy on themselves when they allowed Atlanta to recover two onside kicks. While the records may be the same, other numbers say the 49ers have been the more dominant team. Their point differential is +166, best in the NFC. The Saints point differential is only +50. The Niners outgained the Ravens 6.4 to 4.6 yards per play, which is substantial. The Saints were outgained by the Falcons, had half as many first downs, but managed to force four turnovers. The 49ers defense, which is #1 against the pass, does far better when not facing a mobile QB like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson. Against all other offenses, they have allowed 221.1 yards (total) and 10.6 points/game. Look for them to have success pressuring Drew Brees, who is not mobile. The better team is getting points and that's a combination we like. After falling from the #1 seed in the NFC because of last week's loss, a win here would put San Francisco right back in the driver's seat. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-07-19 | Miami-OH +7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 62 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Central Michigan's only win of 2018 was against Maine, an FCS team. But the Chippewas have gone from 1-11 to 8-4 and MAC Championship Game favorite in just a year's time. Collectively, the MAC was pretty weak this year. So the idea any team would be favored by a touchdown in a Championship Game scenario just doesn't seem right. This line surprised us. Miami finished 7-5 overall and won the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. Because they wrapped the division up three weeks ago, it meant they had nothing to play for the last two games. They only beat Akron by three and then lost by 14 last week at Ball State. We played against them both times and won! There is no shame in the RedHawks three non-conference losses as they were to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. The RedHawks are 24-8 straight up their last 34 conference games. Last week saw them rest starters in the second half, which is how a 27-14 halftime lead turned into a 41-27 loss. QB Gabbert got hurt in the 1st half, but is ready to go this week. Both teams were much better at home than on the road in the regular season. But Central Michigan had some bad losses (Buffalo, Western Michigan) and was lucky to beat Ball State after a big comeback. Expect a close game here. Rumors of Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain going to Missouri may be a distraction. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The Bears, like the Cowboys, are 6-6. But they won on Thanksgiving. It was against a 3rd string QB mind you and by only four points, but a win is a win in this league. Dallas lost to Buffalo 26-15, which was their third setback in the last four games. They've lost six of the last nine games. We just aren't of the mindset to be laying points with this Dallas team on the road right now. Just to illustrate how overvalued this team has been, they've been favored in all but one game this year. They have six losses. This is the third straight week that the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. Chicago has only covered one of its last eight games, but what you may be surprised to learn is that this is only the third time they will be an underdog. Like Dallas, they've been an overvalued team much of the year. Not anymore. Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-01-19 | Redskins +11 v. Panthers | Top | 29-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON We just don't see Carolina winning this game by double digits. Not after last week's tough 34-31 loss to New Orleans, their fourth loss in the past five weeks. Washington actually won last week, so there's at least some positivity for a 2-win team. The Panthers haven't been a double digit favorite in over three years. Believe it or not, they've been asked to lay this many only six previous times in franchise history! The only two times they were favored by more than a field goal this year came in home games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. They lost both. There are two key injuries Carolina will have to deal with, both of them season enders. The bigger of the two is to DT Dontari Poe, who had been quite the disruptive presence. The other is along the offensive line with Greg Van Roten. The Redskins defense has actually done a somewhat admirable job recently. They've held four of their last six opponents below 20 points and only one scored more than 24. If they can do that again, then this should be an easy cover. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Bengals are 0-11 (have lost 13 in a row going back to last year), are turning back to Andy Dalton (seems desperate) and are 0-4 ATS this year when getting less than six points. But we're still going to go with them. That may sound suicidal. But consider what we're fading here. The Jets are road favorites just three weeks removed from a 1-7 start. They have won three in a row, scoring 34 in every game. But they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and lost outright both times. Going back more, they are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six times as a favorite. Cincy hasn't won this year, but they've been close numerous times. Over half their defeats have seen them come within one score. In terms of trying to get a win, Dalton is probably better than the ineffective Ryan Finley. The coaching staff was right to see what they had in Finley, but it turns out it wasn't much. Remember that the Jets lost in Miami. Before that, it had been two years since they'd been a road favorite. They lost that time too, 23-0. They have not closed higher than -3 on the road since 2011. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY Army is 5-6 and needs a win to go bowling for a third consecutive season. Hawaii is 8-3 and has the Mountain West Championship Game (vs. Boise State) on deck. This seems like an excellent opportunity to take Army plus the points. Army is also coming off a bye as well as two easy opponents before that. Hawaii just won a hard fought game last week against San Diego State that came down to a missed field goal. The Warriors won 14-11 to clinch their division and thus move onto the Mt West's Championship Game next week. For the record, we were on Hawaii last week. They were our 10* Game of the Week, in fact! When getting set to face Army, an extra week of preparation is beneficial because of the triple option. Well, not only does Hawaii not have the extra week to prepare, they've got to be thinking about next week's game vs. Boise State. That one is more important to these players and coaching staff. As for Army, winning here is all that matters so that they can get to six wins. When coming off a bye, they've gone 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. They've also covered 9 of 13 as underdogs with five outright wins. Hawaii is 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-30-19 | Boston College +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Boston College has won exactly 7 games in five of Steve Adazzio's six seasons here in Chesnut Hill. The outlier season was 2015 when the Golden Eagles went 3-9. To get to 7 wins again this year, they are going to have to first win this week and then a bowl game. There won't be a bowl for B.C. if they lose this week at Pittsburgh. They enter in at 5-6 after losing 40-7 last week at Notre Dame. This will now be the third try for six wins. They also lost at home to Florida State three weeks ago. Fortunately for BC, Pitt doesn't have much to play for here. The Panthers have 7 wins, so they'll be in a bowl. But they were shutout last week, 28-0, by Virginia Tech. We question whether this Panthers team can even score enough to cover a spread this big. They only average 20.2 points/game. None of Pitt's seven wins have been by more than 10 points. With only one meeting as ACC rivals, there's some unfamiliarity here. Pitt has been outscored despite a 7-4 record - by 1.3 points/game. B.C. has a virtually identical scoring differential. So this is a line that should be closer to a field goal. Some real value on a underdog that will be more motivated than the favorite. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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11-29-19 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is finishing up a terrible season here (Jaguars come in at 1-10 SU), but we're banking on Arkansas State being a disinterested favorite Friday afternoon. Despite having very different records, these Sun Belt opponents may not be as far apart as you think. Arkansas State is 7-4. All they can do with a win here is improve their bowl position. The Red Wolves have won four in a row, but the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Compare that to poor South Alabama who has generally been competitive, but can't quite get over the hump. Having a freshman QB hasn't helped the Jaguars cause, but at least there have been signs of improvement from Desmond Trotter. Key here is that Arkansas State has a terrible defense. The Red Wolves have allowed the second most yards in the Sun Belt. They allow 34.9 points/game overall and 41.6 points/game on the road. Despite a winning record, they have given up more points than they've scored this year. They've been outgained the last two weeks. South Alabama hasn't beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville State. But they are playing the final game at home, which should mean some motivation. The last three years have seen the Jaguars go 3-0 in SBC home finales. Arkansas State isn't likely to take this game too seriously. They'll be happy with just winning, but don't look for a blowout. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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11-29-19 | West Virginia v. TCU -13.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU has to pick itself up here after a close loss to Oklahoma last Saturday night. Lucky for them is that they have the motivation of needing to win here to get to a bowl game. West Virginia should be happy to oblige. This has been a bad season in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six out of their last seven games. Their hopes of going to a bowl ended last week when they lost at home to Oklahoma State by a score of 20-13. TCU has had its share of close defeats as well. Five of the six times they've lost this year, the final margin has been within a touchdown. But they were in this exact situation last year, needing to win the final regular season game. They did just that, beating Oklahoma State by a touchdown. It's a weaker opponent this time around, one that has nothing left to play for. The Horned Frogs also have some revenge on their minds after losing 47-10 last season in Morgantown. To us, it's not a question of whether or not TCU wins. They will. It's a question of "by how much?" With WVU having gone 5-10-2 its last 17 tries as an underdog, it doesn't look good for them Friday afternoon in Ft. Worth. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-29-19 | Miami-OH v. Ball State -3 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALL STATE The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation." There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons +7 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Everyone will be expecting the Saints to exact revenge for their shocking loss to the Falcons three weeks ago. That game saw New Orleans come in as a 14-point favorite and lose 26-9. The 31-point difference between the spread and the final outcome was one of the largest we’ve seen this NFL season. Winning is one thing, but covering the spread is a different outcome. For the Saints, beating anyone by more than a touchdown has been a problem despite their 9-2 record. A 34-31 escape against Carolina last week was the Saints sixth win this year by seven points or fewer. Atlanta had a great follow up to the win over New Orleans. They beat Carolina 29-3. But then last week, they looked more like the team that started the season 1-7. They lost at home to Tampa 35-22. They still haven’t won a home game since Week 2! Getting back to New Orleans lack of domination, they have a point differential of only +42. That might sound alright, but nine teams are better and not all of them have as many wins. Last week easily could have been a loss, but Carolina missed a chip shot field goal. This spread is just too high. The Falcons had been playing so much better before running into a Bucs team that caught fire for one game. Eventually, a home game will be won. Their pass rush swallowed up Drew Brees in the first game and the Saints offensive line is now weaker due to injuries. Atlanta is capable of beating New Orleans twice. PLAY ON ATLANTA AAA |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MISS ST This line seems awfully strange given that Mississippi State needs the game to get bowl eligible. Rival Ole Miss is 4-7 SU, so you won't be seeing them in any bowl. Obviously, the Rebels will still come out motivated given who the opponent is. But it's not as if MSU won't feel the same way, if not more so, based on what a loss would mean to them. While its easy to say Miss State has regressed under Joe Moorhead, a lot of talent was lost from last year's team which had the #2 defense in all of the FBS. Especially along the defensive line. The Bulldogs have given up over 2x as many points this year compared to last. But looking at MSU's season, it's easy to see what the problem is. They just didn't fare well against good teams. As underdogs, their record is 0-4 straight up and against the spread. They lost those four games by an average of 26.5 points/game. But the Bulldogs are slight favorites here, as they should be, for a game they have to win. They'll be looking to reverse a trend that has seen the visitor win the last four Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has just two wins since Oct 5th. It was against New Mexico State. Their two SEC wins were against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, each of whom occupy last place in the respective divisions. The only other Rebels win was against a FCS school. As an underdog, they are 0 for 6 (SU) this year. Miss State is the better team and we will play accordingly. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES Baltimore is really rolling. A six-game win streak has included victories over Seattle, New England and Houston. Granted, they’ve also inflated their point differential at the expense of some bad teams. But there is no denying the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now. But that distinction can often come with a price. That price is catching attention from the betting public. The public has driven this number up as the Ravens are laying a field goal to the Rams in LA. The Rams haven’t been home dogs in quite awhile. The only time it’s happened under Sean McVay was a meaningless Week 17 game back in 2017. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in primetime this year. They beat Cleveland on the road, covered at Seattle and then last week beat Chicago. West Coast teams, because of the body clock issue, have the edge over Eastern counterparts in night games. Over the last four games, the Rams defense has allowed just 44 points. That’s the fewest points allowed by any team the last four weeks. The run by the defense has coincided with the Jalen Ramsey trade. On offense, they’ll be getting WR Cooks back from injury tonight. Baltimore is due for an off game. Our raw number suggest this line should be a pick ‘em. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE This is a revenge game for Tennessee. They lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, on a Thursday night, 20-7. They were actually a small road favorite there as the Jags were 0-2 at the time. Jacksonville has not swept the season series since 2005. The Titans have won the last four home meetings and the home team is on a 12-5 ATS run in this rivalry. We’re not convinced about the long-term viability of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans quarterback, but he is 3-1 as the starter. Jacksonville has now dropped both games Nick Foles has started. They didn’t look good last week in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter in his career in games not with the Eagles. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 29th vs. the run. Titans running back Henry should have a big game. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though. Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. Cincinnati will stay motivated until they win, but this is a game they REALLY want. They’ve lost nine straight times to the Steelers. They’ve lost 12 games in a row period, but are 6-6 ATS in that time. The Bengals average 17.5 points at home. That’s more than the Steelers do on the road. Take the points. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii -3 | Top | 11-14 | Push | 0 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII There's certainly a lot on the line here. The winner of this late night affair wins the Mountain West Conference's West Division. Lucky for Hawaii that they get the game at home where they have a distinct advantage. San Diego State may be 5-0 on the road, but this is the toughest trip in the conference. Hawaii could only manage a 21-7 win over a bad UNLV team last week. But the Warriors apparently didn't take the Rebels very seriously. QB Cole McDonald, who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season, didn't even start. The coaching staff wanted to evaluate redshirt freshman QB Chevan Cordeiro and let him play the first quarter. We had the Under in that game and loved seeing Cordeiro throw two interceptions and fail to direct a single scoring drive. Once McDonald came in though, Hawaii quickly seized control of the game. This game likely comes down to Hawaii's offense vs. SDSU's defense. Hawaii is averaging 36.2 points and over 500 yards in home games. The Aztecs are giving up less than 14 points and 300 yards. Hawaii's defense isn't great, but it also allowed only seven points last week. San Diego State has only three games where they scored more than 25 points. If Hawaii gets going like normal, then the Aztecs simply won't be able to keep pace. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-23-19 | Arkansas +43.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARKANSAS Few will want to touch Arkansas as they are in midst of a lost season and facing the #1 team in the country Saturday night. But this is obviously a lot of points. LSU is good, but they've never had to lay more than 40 in SEC play. That tidbit caught our attention this week. While LSU appears on its way to the College Football Playoff, Arkansas has already fired its coach. Chad Morris didn't even make it two full seasons in Fayatteville. He was fired two weeks ago after the Razorbacks lost 45-19 at home to Western Kentucky. As abrupt as the firing was, it was not the least bit surprising. So now long-time assistant Barry Lunney Jr has been tapped as the interim. The Hogs had last week off, so Lunney and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for LSU. Two months wouldn't be enough for them win this game, but with no bowl game, this team is going to approach this game like it's the "Super Bowl." Expect an inspired effort by the underdog Saturday night. As for the other sideline, LSU coach Ed Orgeron has made it pretty clear that he's going to pull starters as early as possible. That will give Arkansas opportunities in the second half. While the Tigers offense is record-setting, the defense isn't that great. They gave up 614 yards in last week's 58-37 win against Mississippi. It was the fourth game this year that LSU allowed at least 450 yards and 37 points. Rutgers covered against Ohio State last week. Arkansas can do the same this week. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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11-23-19 | California +2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAL It's been a decade since California has won "The Big Game." Nine straight losses to Stanford have come by an average of 19 points/game. But we feel this will be the year for the crew from Berkeley. In recent years, Cal has definitely closed the gap on their rivals from Palo Alto. For this, the 122nd meeting, the Bears actually come in with the better won-loss record. It's been a long time since that was the case. Now after a 4-0 start, the Bears have lost five of six. Like Stanford, they are incredibly banged up coming into this game. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. But on the defensive side of the ball, we like what Cal has to offer more. We played against Stanford last week. They lost 49-22 at Washington State and had just six yards rushing. We warned you about the Cardinal's offensive ineptitude after they could only score 13 points on a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. While Stanford needs to win here and next week to be bowl eligible, we don't think there's any doubt as to which side will be more motivated Saturday down on "The Farm." This nine-year losing streak has to be eating at the Cal players and the senior class doesn't want to go out 0-4. Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year (three outright wins) and 10-5 ATS its last 15 road games. Stanford is 3-7 ATS in all games this season. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse +9 v. Louisville | Top | 34-56 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE One of the more inexplicable results we've seen in College Football this year was Syracuse beating Duke last week. The Orange had gone nearly two months without a win over a FBS foe. They were 8.5-point underdog on the road. Yet they ran wild for 286 yards on the ground and won 49-6. Just because we did not see that result coming does not mean it is without merit. Syracuse is a proud program still trying to make a bowl game. Last year's 10-win season was capped by a bowl victory. You can bet Dino Babers' team would like to get back there. Louisville is already bowl eligible, a major achievement after winning just two games in 2018. First year head coach Scott Satterfield has done a nice job here. But the Cardinals as a favorite is something we want no part of quite yet. This game marks the first time under Satterfield that Louisville is laying more than four points to a conference opponent. The Cardinals were -4 last week at NC State and won 34-20. But they also lost the total yardage battle in that game. They won the turnover battle though (+3) and also pulled off a fake field goal for a touchdown. It also helped that their opponents played without their top five cornerbacks! What a difference a year makes. Last year, Syracuse won 10 games and was considered the rising program in the ACC. Now its Louisville in that same position. We just aren't convinced that the favorite belongs in this price range - yet. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Texans come into this game sporting the same 6-4 record as the Colts and a near identical point differential. Everything seemed to be going fine in Houston, that was until they ran into Baltimore last week and lost 41-7. That loss may leave a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths, but it is important to remember that it was just "one game." One game on the road, against a very good team. It was the first time in QB Deshaun Watson's pro or college career that he lost a game by double digits. It was also the first time this season that Houston failed to score in the first half. The Texans had won four of five before being blown out by the Ravens. That one loss was the Colts, so if Houston needed any more motivation coming into Thursday, they've got it. Remember the Texans were eliminated by the Colts in the playoffs last year as well. They've lost three straight times to them overall. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year. While quarterback Jacoby Brissett returning for the Colts was a welcome sight last week, the real key in the team's 33-13 win over Jacksonville was having two 100+ yard rushers. One of them (Marlon Mack) injured his hand though and he'll miss this game. The defense of the Texans has been great at stopping the run anyway (before facing Baltimore). They allow just 87 yards rushing per game at home. The Colts won't run wild in this game. The Texans have not lost back to back games this season. They should rebound nicely on TNF. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-21-19 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -2 | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GEORGIA TECH It seems as if ESPN and College Football have conceded Thursday night to the NFL this week as they present a rather unappealing matchup between NC State and Georgia Tech. But sometimes these kind of matchups produce the most value. We see value on the home side in Atlanta. Little was expected from Georgia Tech coming into the 2019 season. They have certainly delivered on those low expectations with a 2-8 record. The reason for those low expectations was the transition from the triple option to a pro-style offense. The Yellow Jackets had started to show signs of improvement, but then ran into a buzzsaw known as Virginia Tech last week. The less said about the 45-0 loss, the better. NC State isn't exactly tearing it up either. Four straight losses where they've allowed 178 points is an ugly stretch, no matter how you want to look at it. The Wolfpack are also allowing 456.3 yards per game during the same four-game span. This is a horrendous defensive output, one that should allow for Georgia Tech to have perhaps its best offensive game of the season. It's been five years since we've seen a NC State-Georgia Tech matchup. The Yellow Jackets are 12-3 the last 15 meetings and have gone 15-2 the last 17 games against the ACC's Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech was embarrassed last week. We can't see it happening for a second straight week at home. It's telling that they are the favorite here. NC State's defense is so bad right now that they simply can't be trusted to cover a game, even if they still have a chance to be bowl eligible. Play on GEORGIA TECH AAA |
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11-20-19 | Akron +31.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Let's hold our nose and try again with Akron, who is the only team in the country without win this year (0-10). The Zips are also the only team without a single ATS win (0-10 ATS). But this is a tremendous amount of points to be getting against a Miami team that has nothing to play for these next two weeks. Miami clinched the MAC East with a 44-3 beatdown of Bowling Green last Wednesday. They now are in the unique spot of just waiting for the MAC Title Game. At 6-4, they are already bowl eligible. It's just about staying healthy for the MAC Championship Game at this point. There have been two times in the last three seasons that the RedHawks have been favored by at least 31 points. They won both, obviously. But they didn't cover either time. Both games were against FCS teams. You'd have to go back a long way to find the last time Miami was favored by this many in conference play. Even though Akron is the worst team in the country, they're still "only" losing by 26 points/game. An "average" loss would have them inside the number tonight. This is the most points they've gotten in any game all season. Believe it or not, the Zips have never closed higher than +21.5. Last year marked the first time in seven tries that Miami beat Akron by more than a touchdown. They'll have no interest in covering this huge number tonight. Play on AKRON AAA |
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