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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
10* PACKERS (GOW) I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers turned a corner in last week's 31-28 OT win at home over Dallas. Now 4-6 and in second in the NFC North, I believe Rodgers is the correct call here on the short wek at home. The Titans are off the 17-10 home win over Denver, but after eight straight ATS covers, I say Tennessee is getting too much respect here now on the road vs. the desperate home side. Green Bay's defense is underrated as well, allwoing 21.6 points and 320.3 YPG. I think Green Bay is the correct call here; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Tulane (ASSASSIN) SMU is 6-4 and Tulane is now 8-2 after falling 38-31 to UCF last week. Tulane does still have a shot at a New Year's Six bowl, so there's still lots on the line for Tulane this weekend as well. SMU has reeled off three straight wins. Its offense has looked great in the victories, scoring 163 points, which included a 77-63 win over Houston two weeks ago. And then last week's 41-23 victory at home over USF as well. But this would appear to be a classic trap or letdown spot after becoming bowl eligible last weekend. The SMU offense has been great, but the defense has been terrible. Tulane is tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC ahead of their meeting next weekend. The Wave simply can't afford to look past their opponent today. The big question here is if this normally stout Tulane defense can bounce back after last weekend's atypical performance. This hasn't been a great spot for SMU bettors, as the Mustangs are just 1-3 against the spread as an underdog this season (in fact SMU has lost all four games outright as an underdog as well this year.) UCF's defense is a lot better than SMU's. The Green Wave have a balanced offense, which includes a top 40 red zone touchdown percentage. This is a much better matchup for Tulane's defense this week. It's also a better matchup for its offense. SMU's defense is just downright terrible, it simply can't stop anyone. And yes, SMU's offense has looked great over the last three games, but the three defenses it's faced in those victories are all outside the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball; I expect the Green Wave to get back on track in this favorable matchup, so lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | Top | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ball State (MAC GOW) This is a big game for both teams. Ohio is 8-3, while Ball State needs one more win to become bowl eligible at 5-5. The Bobcats are 2-3 on the road and the Cardinals are 3-2 at home. Ball State fell 28-21 at Toledo last weekend, going on to cover with the large 13.5-point spread. Ohio earned the 27-21 win at Miami Ohio as a 2-point favorite. The Bobcats are tied with Toledo now for the conference lead, so they have their "eyes on the prize" as far as the conference championship is concerned. That said, this is Ball State's final home game of the year, before a tough final game at Miami Ohio next week to finish things off. This one sets up great for Ball State from a situtional stand-point. I do think the outright win is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is indeed on Ball State! AAA Sports |
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11-13-22 | Chargers +7 v. 49ers | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
10* Chargers (UNDERDOG GOY) Everyone and their dog will be on San Francisco this weekend. The Chargers are 5-3 this year, including 3-1 on the road. The 49ers are 4-4, including 2-1 at home. LA is injured, but it managed to rally and hold on for a big win over an improved Falcons team. Winning in the NFL is hard. No matter who you play against. ATL has come a long way this season and so the fact that Justin Herbert was able to rally his team for the victory, with a depleted receiving corps is impressive to me. The Chargers are right behind KC at 6-2 for the division lead. Yes, San Francisco comes out of its bye week healthier now than it's been in a long time, but chemistry is still an issue on offense, despite the talent it has. The Chargers have a tough game at home against Kansas City next week. Theyll be an underdog at home in that one. This is a game that the Chargers can't look past. San Fran though? It has a divisional game as well next weekend, but it's across the pond in England against the Cardinals. I say this one comes down to whichever team has it hands on the ball last; grab the points, the play is the Chargers! AAA Sports |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers +4.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Packers (SPECIAL) This is a "must win" game for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on a whole bunch of different levels. Green Bay is now 3-6 after a 15-9 loss at Detroit last weekend as a 4-point favorite. Dallas has been off for two weeks, last hammering Chicago 49-29 as a 10.5-point favorite at home. With a divisional contest at Minnesota next weekend, this one sets up as a look-ahead spot in a small way for the visitors. I'm banking on Rodgers stepping up here and willing his team to a victory here though. He's in unchartered territory here, but he's a winner. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is the Packers! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Arizona State +10 v. Washington State | 18-28 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Arizona State (ANNIHILATION) Here's a great situational play, with Arizona State at 3-6 and needing to run the table to try and become eligible. WSU on the other hand is 5-4 and needing one more win to become eligible. And with two much tougher games against Washington and Arizona upcoming, this is a crtical game for both sides. But I think the pressure is more on the Cougars here and I believe they're going to struggle to cover this larger spread. ASU is off a 50-36 home loss to UCLA. The Sun Devils can score, averaging 28.1 PPG. WSU is off the big 52-14 win at Stanford, but it still is averaging just 26.8 PPG. WSU's defense is superior, but ASU's unit catches a break this weekend. I expect a much tighter game than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is ASU! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UNT is now bowl eligible after crushing FIU by a score of 52-14 at home last weekend. While 4-1 at home though, the Mean Green are just 2-3 on the road. UAB is 4-5 and it needs two more wins to become eligible, with three games remaining. Last weekend it lost 44-38 at home to UTSA in OT. The Blazers though are 4-1 at home and I'm expecting them to bounce back here. Note that UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS home win of 30 or more points. Look for UNT to suffer a classic mental "letdown" here after last week's bowl-eligibility clinching victory, and expect UAB to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Rice +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
8* Rice (SPECIAL) Here's a great situational play. Rice is a big underdog here, but at 5-4 it needs one more victory to become eligible. The Owls are coing off a solid 37-30 win and cover at home over UTEP. The Owls average 30 PPG, which is ranked 59th. WKU is now eligible at 6-4 after its big 59-7 win over Charlotte last weekend. Next week is the Hilltoppers' bye week, followed by a game at FAU to end the regular season. I say this sets up as a look-ahead/letdown spot for the home side, and when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game!" WKU averages 37.2 PPG, but I expect a small mental letdown here after last week's victory. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Rice! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Panthers (ASSASSIN) In a contest that I see being decided by whichever side has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Carolina is just 2-7, while Atlanta is slightly better at 4-5. ATL is just 1-3 on the road, most recently falling 20-17 to the Chargers on Sunday. The Panthers are off a 42-21 loss to a now red hot Bengals team. Atlanta comes in disappointed, as it had the lead going into the fourth-quarter in its last game, and now it has a quick turnaround here. ATL narrowly edged the Panthers in the first matchup less than two weeks ago, so the immediate revenge factor comes into play here for Carolina. The Falcons are 32nd against the pass, so that'll give PJ Walker some opportunties on his home field today. These teams are indeed evenly matched, but with the majority of the money on ATL, I'm going contrarian here today as well; grab the points, the play is Carolina! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa +6.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (GOW) The Tigers are 4-5, and the Golden Hurricanes are 3-6. Tulsa will have to run the table to become eligible, while Memphis is now running out of time. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Tulsa has lost two in a row, most recently fall 27-13 to Tulane. Braylon Braxton had 146 passing yards and a TD. Last year Tulsa was in the same position, needing three wins to become eligible, and it did just that. Memphis comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. Most recently it was a heart-breaking 35-28 loss to UCF. Seth Henigan had 284 passing yards and a TD. But with a defense that is allowing 412 yards per game, I just don't trust the home side to cover this spread; grab thep points, the play is Tulsa! AAA Sports |
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11-09-22 | Kent State -2.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* KENT STATE (MAC GOY) Kent State is 3-6. It's 0-5 on the road. It's favored here, but will need to "run the table" to become eligible. One game at a time. Bowling Green is off a tight 13-9 win over Western Michigan last week, unable to cover the 5-point spread. The Falcons are now 5-4 with three games remaining. Bowling Green averages 24.9 PPG, while Kent State averages 27.4. The Golden Flashes are off a 27-20 home loss to Ball State. Marquez Coper has 1,013 rushing yards and and nine rushing TD's. Bowling Green was "lucky" to win last time out after turning the ball over three times. Kent State's offense will prove to be the difference-maker here; lay the points, the play is the Golden Flashes! AAA Sports |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Saints (BLOOD-BATH) Two teams in need of a win collide here on Monday night. A non-conference matchup, but it's one that I think favors the hungrier home side. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens are 5-3, and the Saints are 3-5. New Orleans can move into a three-way tie with Atlanta and Tampa Bay with a win today. Baltimore if off a 27-22 win over Tampa Bay as an underdog, but with its bye week after this, followed by several favorable games to end the season, including at home against Carolina, at Jacksonvillle and at home to Denver on the immediate horizon, I say this sets up as a natural "look ahead" spot. As I said earlier, clearly the outright is in the cards, but let's grab the points; the play is New Orleans! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 39 m | Show |
10* Bucs (NFC GOY) Clearly, neither team can be happy with where it's at at the moment. The Rams are 3-4 and the Bucs are 3-5. LA lost a crucial game last week in a 31-14 setback to the Rams and I believe it'll have its hands full here now on the road against this desperate Bucs team. The Rams are in a competitive division, with Seattle leading the way at 5-3. Despite Tampa's recent struggles, it's fortunate to be in second place right now, behind 4-4 Atlanta for the NFC South lead. Injuries since training camp have been the main reason behind Tom Brady and the Bucs' issues this year. Both teams have struggled offensively, and been decent on the defensive end. Tampa's offensive line issues are for sure a problem, but the unit catches a break here facing this inconsistent rams defense. I say this one means so much more to Brady and the home side on so many different levels; it may not be pretty, but I look for Tampa to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (ASSASSIN) We've reached the point of the season where we can look at what teams have done over recent weeks, to help predict what we think will happen in the future. I base my picks on many different things. One factor that I always take into consideration is the "revenge" factor, especially when it comes to divisional matchups. Divisional matchups are always the most important, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here in both cases for the Cardinals. Arizona is now 3-5 after its 34-26 loss at Minnesota last weekend. Seattle is 5-3 after its 27-13 win over the Giants at home last weekend. Arizona does indeed play with revenge here after a 19-9 Week 6 loss in Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Seattle's been great, but it's overachieving. With a game against Tampa Bay in London next week, this sets up as an unfortunate look ahead spot for the Hawks' organization. I like Murray to settle down here at home and find a way to deliver; the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Colts +6 v. Patriots | 3-26 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
8* COLTS (SPECIAL) Both teams desperately need a win. I expect a battle until the final whistle, so because of that, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Indianapolis is 3-4 after its 17-16 home loss to Washington last week. The Colts are now 3-4-1 and in second place in the AFC South behind 5-2 Tennessee. New England is 4-4 after its 22-17 win and cover at the Jets last weekend. I believe this ultimately sets up as a "trap" for the Patriots though, and we can take advantage. After that big and crucial road win vs. the division leader, they now shift back home (where they're 1-2 this season) to play a non-conference game, before their bye week, followed by the rematch with the Jets at Foxborough. Letdown + look-ahead = trap game. While I do think the outright upset is a possibility, let's grab the points with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech +8.5 v. TCU | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
9* Texas Tech (ASSASSIN) The 4-4 Texas Tech Red Raiders will be looking to pull off the upset here against 8-0 TCU. Do I actually think that'll happen? Well, I do think there's a distinct possibility that the Red Raiders could do just that. Off a 45-17 loss to Baylor, I like Texas Tech to bounce back here. So far the Red Raiders are allowing 29.3 PPG. The fortunate part for Texas Tech is that it's averaging 33.9 PPG, led by QB Donovan Smith, who has 1,505 passing yards and 12 TD's. TCU is averaging 44.3 PPG, led by QB Max Duggan with a 2,212 passing yards, 22 TD's and two INT's. The Horned Frogs are poor defensively though, allowing 27.3 PPG. The pressure here is on the Frogs and now they have to contend with a hungry SEC team that's bigger in the trenches. While I do think an outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Texas Tech! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* WASHINGTON (PAC 12 GOM) Both teams are 6-2. Oregon State is 2-1 on the road, while Washington is 5-0 at home. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field advantage is going to be in this contest though. This is an important game, as each team is 3-2 in conference play, so the loser almost assuredly will be out of the running for a PAC 12 title spot. The Beavers come in with momentum after three straight victories, but note that Oregon State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more straight victories ina row. Oregon State is led by Damien Martinez and a ground attack that averages 195 YPG. The defense is decent as well, conceding 22.8 PPG. Washington is off its bye as well. It beat Cal 28-21 last time out. Michael Penix Jr. had 374 yards passing and two TD's. Oregon State stumbled against USC and Utah and I expect the same thing to happen here on the road; lay the points, the play is the Huskies! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Texans (ASSASSIN) We've had some pretty terrible Thursday night matchups so far this season, so I'm a little unsure what to think about this one. On one hand the Eagles have been phenomenal, as they come in at 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. And then we have the Houston Texans, who no one predicted would do anything this year, and everyone was right, as they're just 1-5-1 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. The Texans though have been competitive most weeks at least for bettors, and I think that'll be the case again this week. Now of course Philadelphia can't afford to take the foot off the gas, but off the 35-13 home win over Pittsburgh on the short week, I think a small mental letdown isn't out of the realm of possibility for Philly here; especialy with a bye week next week, followed by a game at home against Washignton. I think Davis Mills will have some opportunities in the second half, as I just cant see Philadelphia running the score up in this one. The Eagles will be happy running the ball throughout here, as the Texans are 31st against the run on the defensive side. This is too many points to be giving up on the road on the national stage; no outright, but closer than expected, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are coming off a 35-17 win over the Falcons last week, posting 537 yards of offense, while limiting ATL to just 214. Cleveland though comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide, most recently falling 23-20 to the Ravens last weekend. The Browns are 2-5 and are in desperate need of a victory. Ja'Marr Chase won't be playing for the Bengals today, so that's a huge blow to the offense. It'll make Cinncy much more one-dimensional. The Browns have been allowing 26.6 PPG, but they catch a break this week. What happens if Cleveland is 2-8 by the time that DeShaun Watson is available to play? They'll already be eliminated from playoff contention, so will they want to put their prize QB in harms way for no reason? Cleveland's offense is ranked sixth overall and I think Nick Chubb and company will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover down the stretch; while the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
10* Rams (NFC WEST GOM) The 3-4 San Francisco 49ers are off a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City. LA is off a 24-10 win over Carolina here at home two weeks ago. Now rested and ready to attack, I think the defending champs are the correct call here in this one. The 49ers got Christian McCaffrey just before last week's game, but he was pretty ineffective. LA will look to take advantage of a defense that conceded 529 yards and an offense that committed three turnovers. The 49ers have had the Rams' number in the past, winning seven of the last eight SU, but now the tables have turned in my opinion. This is an immediate revenge scenario as well, as San Francisco won earlier in the year at home by a score of 24-9. The Rams have made adjustments since then though and the 49ers now have more questions than answers, especially with Jimmy G under center. This Rams' defense is under-rated, and last week the 49ers' defense was exposed; while the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Rams! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY) The Patriots come to town as the more desperate side in this divisional showdown. I think that Bill Bellichick will bring out his best playbook calling today and I expect that to be enough to get the better of the overachieving Jets this weekend. After destroying the Browns 38-15 in Cleveland, New England fell flat in last week's 33-14 home loss to the desperate Bears. The Jets on the other hand won and covered as the favorite on the road in a 16-9 victory at Denver to move to 5-2 and in second in the AFC East, still looking up at the mighty Buffalo Bills. Mac Jones is back under center for New England and I expect him to have his best game of the season so far. New England is only allowing 345.3 yards and 20.9 PPG this season. Jones has uncharacteristically struggled this year. The Jets' offense hasn't been great, as they average only 331.3 YPG, which is ranked 21st. Zach Wilson is not better than Jones in my opinion. The Jets' defense has been good though, allowing 19.6 PPG. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one, and in scenarios like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion; clearly the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the Patriots! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Jaguars | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Broncos (SPECIAL) The Broncos are 2-5 and last in the AFC West. Despite their struggles, I think they'll find a way to beat Trevor Lawrence and the inconsistent Jaguars. Denver is coming off a 16-9 home loss to the Jets, where backup QB Brett Rypien threw for 225 yards, zero TD's and one INT. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as the Jags are just 2-5 and on a four-game losing streak after choking to the Giants at home by a score of 23-17 last weekend. Lawrence was just 22 of 43 for 310 yards, zero TD's and no INT's. Yes, Russell Wilson has struggled to this point, but I think the veteran has his best game of the season so far. The Broncos have the much better defense, allowing just 16.4 PPG. Jacksonville allows 19.6. Look for the veteran's on Denver to finally lead this team to a solid win and cover; that said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10 GOY) The Spartans'll be out to pull off an outright upset here after dropping four of their last five. MSU is 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in league play. Will 7-0 Michigan then come in complacent and "look past" its lowly opponent? Hammering the Spartans never gets old, but I do think this sets up as a natural "letdown" spot. Next week the Wolverines take on Rutgers. But the Spartans are running out of time and chances here. Michigan's chemistry takes a hit here in my opinion as it comes out of its bye week. Last year MSU pulled off an upset over Michigan in a similar sort of situation. Amd I calling for an outright upset again this season? Of course not. That said, this great situational play has all the makings of an against-the-spread cover of the "rocking chair" variety; grab the points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (BLOCKBUSTER) Kentucky is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility after its 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago as a 3.5 point underdog. Tennessee is already 7-0 and it has its sights set on bigger things. Tennessee annihilated Tennessee Martin 65 to 24 last weekend as a 38.5-point favorite. Will Levis has been pretty good for the Wildcats though, he actually had his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State (finishing with a 91.1 QBR.) Running back Chris Rodriguez Junior had his best game also finishing with 197 yards on 31 carries against Mississippi State. Overall the Wildcats average 26.4 points per game, but they've been even better on the defensive side ranked in the top 15 nationally in points allowed. With Georgia on deck next week, obiously Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers have to be careful of not looking past the Wildcats. Tennessee's defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag, but the Vols don't usually have to be too sharp defensively as they're averaging 50.1 points per game, which is No. 1 in the nation. Kentucky faced a high-powered offense like this already in Ole Miss, and while the Wildcats didn't win that one, they kept the Rebels out of the end zone over the final three quarters. Levis will have some opportunities here against a sub-par Volunteer secondary; I'm not calling for an outright guys, but I think that Kentucky can keep it close! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* BYU (ASSASSIN) We're at Lavell Edwards Stadium for this one. Both teams are on the cusp of eligibility. The East Carolina Pirates are 5-3, and BYU is 4-4. But while East Carolina has won five of its last seven, the Cougars enter on a three-game losing streak. This is a pivotal game for BYU this weekend. Here is a great opponent to go against, because despite the superior record, the Pirates are still just 3-3 in their last six on the road. ECU has a great quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who has 2,435 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Pirates have been pretty good in the run game as well, averaging 165.7 yards per game. Defensively they are giving up 390.7 yards and 24.6 points per game. But as I pointed out, the Pirates definitely play better at home than on the road. And that's the case for BYU as well. The Cougars will hope a little home cooking can turn things around for them. BYU has won five of its last six at home and I'd argue that Jaren Hall has been even better than Ahlers (he has 2,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions). The ground game has been pretty good as well, averaging 148.4 yards per game. The weakness so far has been on the defensive end for sure obviously, as they allow 30.3 points and 404.9 yards per game. But if you look at East Carolina's schedule to this point, it definitely has not been the toughest. I think the Cougars are the correct call here. I think they're going to play with a major sense of desperation after three straight losses. East Carolina has its bye week after this, and that's followed by three straight really tough games to end the year (at Cincinnati, against Houston and at Temple.) Give me the hungrier and more motivated home side to finally put it all together and post a solid win and cover in this one; the play is BYU! AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
10* RAVENS (NON-CONF GOM) The Bucs are 3-4 and the Ravens are 4-3. I think it's safe to say that neither is thrilled where they are at at this point of the season. Clearly that's the case for Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have had so many different issues to deal with since training camp. And it really doesnt appear as if things are going to get any easier for the the Bucs' super star, ESPECIALLY on the short week right? How can this short week be benefitting Brady at all right now? It's gotta just put added stress onto an already super stressful situation. This has to be is rock bottom for Brady? Losing 21-3 to the Carolina Panthers? There's no question that PJ Walker was the better quarterback on the field of play that day last weekend. I think that LaMar Jackson and the Ravens can smell the blood in the water this week. Jackson actually had his worst game of the season last week, as he completed just nine passes, and they were outgained by Cleveland 336 yards to 254. But a couple of timely scores and a Browns false start on the game tying field goal lifted them to the miraculous 23-20 victory. The Bucs are ripe for the picking here in my opinion ultimately. The offense is broken, the running game is non existent because the offensive line is in shambles. Brady was 32 of 49 for 290 yards last weekend and his average depth of target is just 7.8 this season, by far the lowest of his career.Clearly Baltimore is far from perfect, but I'm going with Jackson here to find a way to get the job done, as I definitely don't trust Brady right now; the play is the RAVENS. AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* BEARS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams could really use a victory here. Will the Patriots go up early, and then keep the foot on the gas from start to finish? I say no way. I think this game will be decided in the trenches, and by field position. Running and protecting the ball. The Bears are 2-4 and the Patriots are 3-3. It's all hands on deck for Chicago after three straight losses. New England has looked great over the last two weeks, but I think it'll come out flat here after last week's 38-15 victory at Cleveland. So far the Bears are only averaging 15.5 PPG, but they'll have to open up the playbook here and be the aggressors. Justin Fields has 869 passing yards, four TD's and five INT's. The defense for the Bears is ranked 11th, allowing 19.7. New England allows 18.8, while averaging 23.5 of its own. Bailey Zappe has filled in for Mac Jones admirably, but the starter will likely be back under center tonight. Whoever is under center, I expect conservative game calling from Bellichick this evening. I say Chicago throws its best shot and while that may not be good enough to win this game outright, it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one; grab the points, the play is Da Bears! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (BLOCKBUSTER) The Jets are not only 4-2 ATS, but they're also 4-2 SU. New York is off an epic 27-10 road win at Green Bay, but I believe it'll have a predictable step back this weekend in Denver. Russell Wilson is out for the Broncos, which is a GREAT thing in my estimation. The pivot has struggled with his new team, and now enters Brett Rypien, who will be given the green light here. The Broncos are still excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16.5 PPG. I say that Zach Wilson and the Jets finally stumble here; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
8* Browns (DESTRUCTION) It's true that divisional contest always mean the most. And for the most part, those games MEAN the most to the home side. There are exceptions to that rule every now and then though, and this is one of them. Both of these teams are in dire need of a win, but Cleveland more so at 2-4. Baltimore is 3-3. The Browns are off a 38-15 loss at home to a surging New England team, but they always matchup well aaainst the Ravens. It's a crucial part of the season for the Browns, who have a tough home game vs. division rival Cincinnati next week. Baltimore has more questions than answers right now after last week's 24-20 collapse as a 5.5-point favorite. To make matters worse for the Ravens, they have a short turnaround this week with a Thursday night game at Tampa Bay, followed by a road contest at New Orleans. I think the Browns' run game keeps them in this one; grab the points, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Washington Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
10* COMMANDERS (ASSASSIN) I think the Packers on the road is the incorrect call here. The Jets demolished Green Bay by a score of 27-10 last weekend, and I think that Taylor Heinickie and the home side can take advantage as well. Green Bay is just 3-3 now. Washington is 2-4 after its 12-7 win at Chicago last weekend. The offense has been inconsistent for Washington, but the defense has been its strength. Aaron Rodgers has struggled against defenses like this already and I think he'll be on the run once again this Sunday afternoon. I don't think the Giants or Jets are even that good. Certainly their defenses aren't. Green Bay is averaging only 17.3 PPG. Here's Heinickie about stepping in for Carson Wentz: "Starting 15 games last year, I feel a lot more comfortable, a lot more confident in what I need to do to win and what not to do to lose.” The majority of bets are on Green Bay, but the majority of the money is on Washington; lets follow the sharp money in this one! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* COLTS (ASSASSIN) Divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Every now and then there's an exception to that "rule" though and that's the case here today in my opinion. Both teams have battled back from shaky starts and enter at 3-2. Indianapolis enters off a 34-27 win over Jacksonville. The Titans barely held on for a tight 21-17 victory over Washington. So far the Colts are averaging 17.2 PPG, while allowing 20.2, while Tennessee is averaging 19.2 PPG, and allowing 23.6. These teams are almost identical in every way, but I'd argue that the Colts have looked a lot better over the last two outings. Especially their offense. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 24-17 in Week 4 and I expect the revenge factor to play a crucial part here as well; while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) The bookmakers are just begging people to take the Giants here. The vast majority of the bets are on New York, but I'm going the other way here and predicting that that desperate home side will not only win, but win big. I also expect a letdown here finally from the over-acheiving Giants who enter at 5-1, fresh off an upset win at home over Baltimore. The Giants will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here to their game at Seattle next week. At 2-4 the Jaguars simply NEED to win this game. Jacksonville actually enters off three straight losses. Trevor Lawrence could easily have a winning record right now if not for an unlucky bounce here or there. This is do or die for the home side and I expect that to the be the difference-maker; lay the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Utah State (SPECIAL) Utah State is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS, while Wyoming if 4-3 SU/ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Aggies come in with some momentum, first they beat Air Force 34-27 two weeks ago, then it beat Colorado State 17-13 last weekend. Utah State's offensive and defensive numbers are somewhat skewed after a few early blowouts. The Aggies average 19.9 PPG, and allow 31.7. Wyoming is off a 27-14 road win over New Mexico as a 3-point favorite. Wyoming only averages 23.3 PPG, while allowing 387 yards of offense per contest. Utah State's ground game is firing on all cylinders and its defense just held Colorado State to just 13 points. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Aggies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* SAINTS (GOW) The Cardinals have lost four of their last six overall, and three straight at home. They're averaging less than 20 PPG. Their run game is "OK," but they lack a passing offense with Murray as QB. DeAndre Hopkins does return from suspension this week, but I don't think he'll make much of an impact having sit out the last six weeks. New Orleans has been strong against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air while on the road. That turns Arizona really one-dimensional still. New Orleans on the other hand has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (AFC WEST GOY) Denver is 2-3 and LA is 3-2. Clearly this is a big game for each team. Neither side has lived up to the offseasno expectations. Especially Denver. Russell Wilson signed a nearly $250 million dollar contract and his performance to this point has been very weak. The veteran will be out to reverse his fortunes here against Christian Herbert and the Chargers. So far Denver is only averaging 15 PPG, but making up for it on the other side by allowing just 16. The Chargers enter having won two straight. The Chargers score 24.4 PPG, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 27.2. That's music to Wilson's ears finally. LA routinely plays down to the level of its competition. It's hard to imagine that Wilson has fallen off his skill set this quickly. I expect to see his best game of the season so far and while I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points; the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
9* CHIEFS (ASSASSIN) I'm going to grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. The Chiefs ended the Bills season last year. They were up by a field goal with less than a minute left, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ended up winning in OT in last year's playoffs. Buffalo enters at 4-1. It comes in off the 38-3 win over Pittsburgh. The Bills average 30.1 PPG, and they have the second ranked defense, giving up 12.2 PPG. The Chiefs average 31.8 PPG, while allowing 25. KC has been involved in a couple shootouts, so its defensive numbers are a tiny bit skewed in my opinion. This is a difficult matchup for Josh Allen and the Bills. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points; the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
8* Seahawks (SPECIAL) Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Arizona and Seattle are both 2-3 SU. The Cards are 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, but I think they'll finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Eagles last week. Kyler Murray has 1,241 passing yards and six passing TD's while also rushing for 133 and two more TD's. DeAndre Hopkins will return next week. The Seahawks fell 39-32 in New Orleans last week. Geno Smith has 1,305 passing yards, nine passing TDs' and only two INT's. Tyler Lockett has 406 yards receiving and two TD's. Neither team can afford to lose this game. I like Seattle too, at the very least, keep this one tight till the very end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +7 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
8* New Mexico State (BLOWOUT) This is the 112th version of the Rio Grande Rivalry, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think we're going to see a tight battle until the final whistle. New Mexico is off a 27-14 home loss to Wyoming last weekend nad it's now lost two in a row. New Mexico State lost 21-7 to FIU two weeks ago, and it comes in focussed after its bye week. The Lobos average 259.7 yards per game on offense. The Lobos defense has been better though in allowing 22.8 PPG. The Aggies have been conceding 32.2 PPG in the early going. New Mexico State beat Hawaii 45-26 at home, but it's also been shutout twice. That won't be the case here today though at home, as I think the week off to prepare will be advantageous. New Mexico has won three straight in this series, and it may win a fourth as well. But it won't be easy. Grab the points, the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
9* IOWA STATE (ASSASSIN) While I clearly believe the outright win is in the cards, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Iowa State is coming off a crushing loss to Kansas last week and I expect it to take out its frustrations on the Wildcats. The home side is winless in conference play, while K-State is 2-0. The Cyclones will look to crush the Wildcats chances at the Big 12 title with the outright win here. K-State comes in off a satisfying 37-28 home win over Texas Tech. QB Adrien Martinez had 116 passing yards a TD, while also running for 171 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Deuce Vaughn had 170 yards on 23 carries. They've been decent defensively, allowing 18 PPG so far. But Iowa State's defense ranks Top 15 in almost every category, allowing an average of only 255 yards per game. Overall they concede just 14 PPG. Last week Iowa State's kicker missed three FG's in the 14-11 setback to the Jayhawks. Overall they've averaged 26 PPG and note that the Cyclones are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss. K-State has a great run game, but Iowa State has an elite run stopping defense. Look for the hungrier home side to pull it off here; the play is Iowa State! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ARMY (SPECIAL) Wake Forest is the No. 15 team in the country. It's coming off a 31-21 win at Florida State as a 6-point underdog. Off that upset victory, I'm expecting the home side to get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to its bye week the following week. Army is just 1-3 SU/ATS and it's off a 31-14 loss at home to Georgia State. I think the Black Knights sneak in under the radar here though and that they catch the Demon Deacons at a "good" time. Or at least we do as bettors here with Army, as I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything. The Knights will keep this game close with their rushing attack that ranks second in the nation with 303 yards per game. QB Sam Hartman is having a breakout season for the Deacons with 15 TD's to just two INT's so far, but I can't see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Will Wake Forest take care of business at home? Of course. But it won't cover this large spread against this motivated Army side looking to pull off an upset; grab the points, the play is the Black Knights! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
8* MIAMI (DESTRUCTION) North Carolina is 4-1 after beating the Hokies by a score of 41-10 last weekend. UNC is now tied with Duke for the top spot in the conference, but I'm expecting a step back here in this difficult road venue. Last week Drake Maye had 363 passing yards and three passing TD's, while also running in two more TD's on 73 yards rushing. This is a great situational play here tough as Miami comes in off its bye week from last week due to Hurricane Ian. Miami has had two weeks to absorb a terrible effort in a 45-31 setback to MTSU in Week 4, getting stopped on the 5-yard line twice and committing numerous tunovers. Before last weekend's win, UNC had allowed almost 500 yards per game of offense. There's a bit of a QB controversy for Miami, as Tyler Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garica at half time in Week 4's loss. This competition though is a good thing for us though. UNC's weakness is on the defensive side and I think the unit has another big letdown here on the road; lay the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC GOM) At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons +1 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER-BLOWOUT) Cleveland got the better of Pittsburgh by a score of 29-17 at home on Thursday night Football, but I expect the Browns to take a step back here on the road in this non-conference matchup. Jacoby Brissett had 220 yards passing, but the Browns come to town banged up, including to Myles Garrett and four other defensive starters missed practice this week as well. Captain Anthony Walker Jr. was also lost for the season with injury. Falcons' RB Cordarelle Patterson had 141 rushing yards and a TD in his team's 27-23 win over the Hawks. QB Marcus Mariota had 223 passing yards and a TD as well. The Browns are just 2-5 in their last seven on the road and everything points to a complete collapse here. That said, grab the points; the play is Atlanta AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | 10-25 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (BLOCKBUSTER) Washington comes to town hungry, looking to avoid a third straight loss. The best part aout the Commanders this year though has arguably been the play of veteran quarterback Carson Wentz. They catch a break here facing this depleted Dallas offense. Cooper Rush has been decent so far, but he's no Dak Prescott. Defensively the Cowboys have been OK as well. It's interesting to note though that Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight when allowing 350 more yards of offense in its previous game. Both teams have plenty of issues, but in a game that I see being decided by whichever of these divisional foes has it hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is the Commanders AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens +3.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
8* RAVENS (SPECIAL) Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season, falling 21-19 at Miami as a 4-point favorite. Now the Bills are a favorite again on the road and I think the oddsmakers are mistaken here. Josh Allen is playing pretty well, but LaMar Jackson is on fire. Yes, the Ravens blew a big lead to Miami two weeks ago, but Baltimore bounced back huge in last week's potentially dangerous 37-26 win over the Patriots. Let's not read too much into early season offensive and defensive numbers for either side. This one just sets up really well for the home side. I think the Bills are frustrated and a second straight road game as a favorite against a team filled with confidence is just not what the doctor ordered right now. The outright is possible, but my official call will be grab as many points as you can; the play is the Ravens! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Jets +4 v. Steelers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 42 m | Show |
10* JETS (AFC GOY) Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 34 m | Show | |
8* STANFORD (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) Am I calling for a straight-up, outright win here for Stanford as a massive underdog on the road? I am not. But I do think that the hungry Cardinal can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in this one. Stanford is just 1-2, most recently falling to No. 18 ranked Washington by a score of 40-22. QB Tanner McKee though was decent, going 17 of 26 for 286 yards, three TD's and an INT. I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one as well. The Ducks are 3-1, but they're off a much tighter than expected 44-41 win at Washington State and a small mental letdown is imminent in my opinion. QB Bo Nix had 428 yards passing, three TD's and an INT for the Ducks last week, but as I said, everything points to McKee keeping pace here. Look for the Ducks to go up early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half; the play is Stanford! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Colorado +17.5 v. Arizona | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
9* COLORADO (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Outright win? I'm not calling for it. That said, I think the 0-4 Buffaloes lay everything on the line here and keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arizona is 2-2 and I expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent to its game here at home against Oregon next weekend. The Buffs are struggling on both sides of the ball, but we can expect their QB Owen McCown to move the ball today against a Wildcats' defense that's conceding 34 PPG. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura has eight TD passes to his credit, but he's also been intercepted six times. Look for Colorado to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is the BUFFS. AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOW) Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY) The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
8* COLTS (SUPER BLOWOUT) With their backs against the wall, the Indianapolis Colts will fight tooth and nail here to try and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. I wonder if Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are glad they left their former teams for "greener pastures?" It's been a grind for both, but arguably much more so for Ryan and the 0-1-1 Colts (note that only 2.5% of teams that start 0-3 ever even make it to the playoffs.) The one thing going for the Colts this season? They're in a downright terrible division, with Tennessee 0-2, Houston with the identical 0-1-1 record and Jacksonville leading the way at 1-1-0. Kansas City has a HIGH PROFILE date at Tampa Bay next week, and I believe it'll get caught "looking ahead." I expect Ryan the Colts to dig deep here and, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to earn the comfortable cover; the play is Indy AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins +5.5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (SPECIAL) I think an outright win could be in the cards here. That said, in the end I'm going to grab the points. Both teams are 2-0, and each has looked impressive. This is now the start of a really tough stretch for the Bills, with a game at Baltimore next week, followed by Pittsburgh, at Kansas City and Green Bay. Miami has a quick turn around to play on Thursday night, but a date vs. the 0-2 Bengals now isn't quite as important. Miami plays with revenge here after a 26-11 to the Bills last Halloween. Miami has the offense to easily keep pace, and I believe its defense rebounds from last week's shaky performance. As I said off the top, the outright is possible, but the official call here will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
8* VIKINGS (BLOOD-BATH) The Lions have been "sexy" underdogs so far over the first two weeks, but I think some regression will be in order here against this now desperate Vikings team that's looking to bounce back from a poor 24-7 effort in Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that though Minnesota looked dominating in its 23-7 home win over the Packers. So which Vikings team can we expect here? I say the same one that we saw in Week 1. Detroit came up just short in its Week 1 38-35 home setback to Philly, but then it bounced back with the 36-37 home win over Washington in Week 2. Now hitting the road for the first time, I'm predicting a step back for the Lions this week. Look for the hungry Vikings to pull away for the comfortable win and cover; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
8* JETS (SPREAD-BEATER) The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but they're now 0-2 SU/ATS this season. The Jets are 1-1 SU/ATS, and coming off an epic 31-30 road win over the Browns. I think that Bengals' QB Joe Burrow is likely the best player on the field of play today, but I don't think his team is. Especially such a big favorite on the road. I think this line should be more like -2.5. Giving this one the good old "eye test" here in Week 3. I actually think an outright victory is VERY possible, but in the end, let's grab the points; the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (SPECIAL) The bottom line here is that I believe that this one sets up as a classic "letdown/lookahead" spot for the home side. Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with conference play starting next week vs. South Carolina, I think the Wildcats will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the sceond half. NIU is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Huskies start league play next week as well. I expect NIU veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to move the ball in the second half. Kentucky has some playmakers on defense, but the offense hasn't been that impressive. This is just WAY too many points to be giving up, as the oddsmakers try to catch the public money. No outright, but closer than expected; the play is Northern Illinois! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY) Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -130 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
10* TITANS (MNF GOY) Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys +8 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
9* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone and their dogs are expecting the Bengals to roll in here and smash the Cowboys without Dak Prescott in the lineup. Dak played in most of last week's 19-3 loss to Tampa, and he looked pretty inept. Perhaps Cooper Rush is an upgrade? Rush was 7 of 13 for 64 yards last week. RB Ezekial Elliot will be expected to step up and alleviate the pressure. Defensively the Cowboys looked great in defeat though, as the unit had to carry the load all night long. And last week the Bengals looked bad anyways. The Steelers defense looked strong, but the Cowboys I think are even better in that department. Cincinnati will be without WR Tee Higgins as well, which is another blow here for Joe Burrow on the road. I think this will be very tight. In a game that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Falcons +11 v. Rams | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
8* FALCONS (SUPER BLOWOUT) Atlanta lost a tough one by a score of 27-26 to the Saints at home as a six-point underdog. It was an impressive first showing and I believe Marcus Mariota and company can build off that performance. The Rams on the other hand looked pretty out of sort in falling 31-10 at home on Opening night. LA has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and it all started with the weak performance of Matthew Stafford. He really does have a "feel" about him about following in the footsteps of Joe Flacco after he won the Super Bowl. Atlanta looked good for three quarters, but once again blew a double digit lead in the fourth. Sean McVay's record after a loss is 18-8, including 16-9-1 ATS. However, these numbers are set to fall further here in my opinion. The Rams are 7-11 when favored since 2011 and Atlanta is interestingly 13-3 ATS in its last 16 Week 2 contests. Too many points here. The Falcons showed the ability to play defense last week. Expect this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY) I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOLPHINS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams won. Both teams didn't look fantastic. I'd argue though that the Dolphins win at home over the Patriots is more impressive than the Ravens victory over the Jets. Tua Tagovailo had 270 passing yards and a TD, but the Dolphins looks great defensively, holding the Pats to just seven points and forcing three turnovers. The Ravens looked decent defensively, but that was against Joe Flacco and the Jets! Lamar Jackson did have 313 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception, but he completed just 56 percent of his passes. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 15 points or less in their last game, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six September games. While I do think the outright win is possible, let's grab the points; the play is the Dolphins! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON (SPECIAL) The Commanders pulled away for the 28-22 home win and cover over the Jaguars last weekend and I think they can keep that positive momentum rolling here. Detroit fought tooth and nail with the Eagles, but fell 38-35, only managing to earn the cover with the six points they were afforded. Carson Wentz finished with 316 passing yards, four TD's and two INT's. Five different Washington receivers had over 40 yards. Jared Goff had 215 passing yards, two touchdowns and an INT in the Lions' Week 1 loss. Goff was decent, but the defense was a disaster. It's the biggest question mark here headed into this game and it's one that I believe that Wentz and the visiting side can take advantage of. The Eagles' secondary is a mess, so let's not read too much into Detroit's production. Washington's defense is a step up here and I think that Wentz is the best QB on the field of play. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Washington! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SDSU (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) I'm not calling for the outright obviously, but I do definitely expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Both teams are 1-1 SU. SDSU is 0-2 ATS and Utah is 1-1 ATS. The Aztecs lost 38-20 to Arizona in Week 1 and then they beat Idaho State by a score of 38-7, unable to cover the large 34-point spread. But now SDSU is the big underdog in this matchup. Utah lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite, and then took its frustrations out on Southern Utah in last week's 73-7 destruction. With a game at Arizona State next weekend though and the start of conference action for real, this sets up as a bit of a trap game for the home side. The Aztecs are a run first team. Last week they had 488 total yards. SDSU's defense bounced back after a poor showing in its opener as well. It's difficult to rate Utah quite yet, as it looked pretty pedestrian in the Week 1 loss, and then who knows with last week's blowout victory. Utah though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory of 20 or more points, while SDSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. Utah will win this game, and avenge last year's loss to SDSU, but I expect it to be much closer than what this large spread would indicate. As I said off the top, no outright upset or anything this year, but expect a battle until the end; the play is SDSU! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS A&M (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Miami has outscored its first two opponents by a score of 100-20. Texas A&M is 1-1 after a shocking loss at home to Appalachian State last weekend. I say the Aggies bounce back here though. They were 18-point or so favorites in that contest! Miami beat Southern Miss in its last outing. Note though that this is the Hurricanes' first road game this season and they went just 2-2 away from friendly confines last year. Tyler VanDyke was a standout last week with 261 yards passing and a TD. A&M did indeed lose 17-14 to App State last week. QB Haynes King only had 97 passing yards, no TD's and no INT's, one week after passing for 364 yards in the season opener. The Aggies though have done very well in this spot, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference contests and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC. Miami on the other hand is a dismal 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a straight up victory. Look for the home side to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Arkansas State v. Ohio State -44 | 12-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DESTRUCTION ON OHIO STATE This is a mismatch of epic proportions. They can't make the spread high enough. The Buckeyes took a bit to get started against Notre Dame. They got it going though and will be good from the start of this one. Arkansas State faced Grambling in its opener. So, this is about as a big a step up in class as a team can take. They will not be prepared. Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. This will be a thrashing! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
8* HOOK AND LADDER ON BOISE We played against the Broncos in their Week 1 loss to Oregon State. New Mexico is a far cry from OSU. The Broncos routinely beat the stuffing out of this team. Last year's game was typical, a 37-0 crush-job. The previous meeting was 42-9. The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Lobos are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS their last four, off an ATS loss. Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina +12.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON EAST CAROLINA NC State will have a good year but this will be a tough test. A noon ET start first game against an underrated, upset-minded, motivated instate rival. Host ECU is coming off its best season in several years. The Pirates were set to go to a bowl (for the first time since 2014) last year but the Military Bowl was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That makes for some unfinished business. The Pack are 5-13 ATS their last 18 on the road. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 297 h 29 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOM) The Bengals have been consistently underestimated by their opponents and the bookmakers throughout the post-season, and I believe that's still the case here in the Super Bowl. Both the Rams and Bengals have played to some tight games throughout the postseason and that trend is going to continue here. LA had to come from behind to knock off the 49ers by a score of 20-17, while Cincinnati also rallied in its conference championship game to beat the Chiefs 27-24 in OT. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are very similar. LA averages 27.1 PPG, while the Bengals average 27.1 as well. Cincinnati allows 22.1 PPG, while LA concedes 21.9. This is going to be a great game, but another one that I expect to come right down to the wire; because of that, let's grab the points with the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 50 m | Show |
10* 49ERS (GOW) The 49ers continue to get little respect here. They just dismantled the Green Bay Packers on their own field by a score of 13-10. This 49ers defense, especially the secondary and pass rush, are on a whole other level right now. LA lost to San Francisco 27-24 in OT in Week 18, and frankly I see an almost identical outcome here as well. The Rams crushed the Cardinals, but they had a much more difficult time with the Bucs in Tampa last weekend. The 49ers' offensive numbers are comparable over the last month, but San Francisco's vast superiority on the defensive side of the ball makes it the correct call in the NFC Championship game in my opinion; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -125 | 127 h 16 m | Show | |
8* CHIEFS (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Experience matters at this point of the season. Home field advantage matters at this time of the year. Kansas City pulled away for the 42-36 OT win over Buffalo at home last weekend, while Cincinnati had to hold on for dear life to get past the Titans. This is a revenge game for the Chiefs as well after they fell 34-31 to the Bengals in Week 17. Does Cincinnati have any clear advantage in any single category at all in this contest? It doesn't, and I expect that to be very evident once the final whistle sounds. The future is bright for Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but the time is NOW for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs! AAA Sports |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -3 | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
8* TAMPA (DESTRUCTION) After earning his first playoff win of his career last weekend, I think that Matt Stafford will struggle on the road at the defending champs. Yes, the Rams smashed the Bucs here in Week 6, but that was then and this is now. Experience at this level is so crucial, as is the home field advantage. I've never seen anyone as driven as Brady and with the Super Bowl in sight, I expect the veteran to bring out his bag of tricks today. Listen, if you're wagering on this game, I don't need to run down the strengths and weaknesses of these teams. Note as well that LA is a terrible 1-7 ATS in its last 8 following a SU win of more than 14 points. Conversely, the Bucs are 4-0 ATS their last 4 playoff home games; lay the points, expect a decisive victory! AAA Sports |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show | |
8* TITANS (ASSASSIN) I like the Titans to defend their home field today. The Bengals are a public favorite team. Yes, Cincinnati won the AFC East with a 10-7 record and they managed a victory over the Raiders in the Wildcard last weekend, but it was anything but easy. Now they face Ryan Tannehill and a nearly fully healthy and rested Titans team that's going to be able to turn this Bengals' offense extremely one-dimensional. Cincinnati posted a 31-20 win over Tennessee last November, and the Titans won't have forgotten that. I question the Bengals' strength of schedule. They had to hold on for dear life at the end of the game last weekend, as the victory was anything but impressive. Expect the rested and experienced home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 0 m | Show |
10* EAGLES (A$$A$$IN) The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philadelphia back on October 14th. You've heard that old saying right, that "revenge is a dish best served cold?!" Outright victory?! Anything is possible, but in reality I am expecting this one to be extremely competitive. With a record of 9-8, the Eagles are happy to be here. Jalen Hurts and Jordan Howard are ready to go for the visiting side, but Tampa will be without RB Leonard Fournette and WR Antonio Brown (the former out with injury, the latter released from the team.) Philly won four of its last five games and I expect it to push Tom Brady and the defending champs to the brink today. The Bucs are filled with talent and experience, but I'll argue that the Eagles are the much "hungrier" team in this fight. No outright, but all signs point to this one being decided late; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 20 m | Show |
10* PATRIOTS (WC GOY) I feel as if this play is slightly contrarian. The Patriots stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, while the Bills won their final 4 games to claim the AFC East title. These teams split their season series, each winning on the others field. If you're wagering on this contest, then you know the cast of characters on both sides. You know the strengths and the weaknesses of each team. You know the story lines. So why is Mac Jones and Bill Bellichick going to bounce back here and find a way to deliver? The Patriots have the offense (27.2 points) to keep pace with the Bills (28.4.) Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game as well from the visiting side as it looks to duplicate the success it had here in the first game between the clubs this season. I give a big nod to Josh Allen at QB in this matchup, but the Patriots get the nod for their run game. Defenses are equal. This one really is going to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so because of that gentlemen, let's grab up as many points as we can! AAA Sports |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 40 m | Show | |
8* RAIDERS (SPECIAL) While most of the public "Zigs" on this one, I'm going to "Zag." The majority of the public money is on Joe Burrow and the favored home side today, but I'm here to tell you that the sharp move in this contest is to go contrarian and back the "never say die" Raiders. Since a brutal loss to the Chiefs, the Raiders have posted four stright victories (its interesting to note that Las Vegas' QB Derek Carr has a better completion percentage and yards per pass this year than Justin Herbert.) Up until this last game, the Raiders were getting the job done with their tough defensive play. They rank in the top ten in limiting long passing plays. The Bengals have better offensive and defensive numbers. They were far from perfect this year either though, with a 41-22 blowout loss to the Chargers a couple of weeks ago. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 as an underdog though and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 350 or more yards in their previous game. Burrow and Jamar Chase may find a way to win this game, but it'll be decided in the final moments if they do; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 204 h 3 m | Show |
10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia. They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-09-22 | Titans v. Texans +11 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
8* TEXANS. Tennessee has an opportunity to lock up top spot in the AFC here, but Houston won't roll over as it'll look to play spoiler. The Titans are averaging 24.4 points per game this year, while allowing 20.6. Tennessee is loaded with talent, but after going up early here, I expect it to take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal. Houston is averaging only 15.9 points per game, while allowing 26.5. Davis Mills has nothing to lose here. He's been decent in a difficult situation, as he has 2,363 passing yards, 13 TD's and 10 INT's. Houston has been favored twice on the road this year and it's gone 1-1 ATS in those spots. I look for Tennessee to win this game, but I expect Houston to put up a strong fight until the end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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