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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
10* LIONS (NFC NORTH GOY). Green Bay has already wrapped up the NFC No. 1 seed, so QB Aaron Rodgers may or may not see any time under center today. Why would Green Bay risk their top asset in a meaningless game? Or any of its assets, like WR Davante Adams. Jared Goff will likely sit for the Lions as well today, as there's no point risking his contract in this contest. That means that Tim Boyle will get another shot after facing the Seahawks last weekend (he had 262 yards passing, but also three picks.) Dan Campbell's men play hard for him and this will be a rare opportunity for his team to "steal" a win against Green Bay. The Packers could care less about this contest, while it would be a big boost to this Detroit side if it could pull off a SU upset and have something to build on after such a terrible season. Outright? Possibly! But let's grab the points, as the play is indeed on Detroit! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
CHIEFS (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Chiefs were upset 34-31 to Cincinnati last weekend, but I think they'll bounce back here in this favorable spot. Denver has been eliminated from playoff contention after last weekend's 34-13 loss to the Chargers. KC is now in second spot in the AFC behind Tennessee, so this is a big game for Patrick Mahomes and company. What can the Broncos play spoiler for here? The Chiefs are in the playoffs already. There's zero motivating factors working for Drew Lock and the Broncos today. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while KC is 14-4 in its last 18 on the road and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 in this series. Look for KC to go up huge early and then coast to a relatively simple win and cover! AAA Sports |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* Steelers (BLOOD-BATH) I don't particularly "like" either of these starting quarterbacks (or teams for that matter!) in this matchup. That said, despite his age and the "ups and downs" he's experienced this year, I trust veteran Ben Roethlisberger at home over Browns' starter Baker Mayfield. The Browns have lost two straight, most recently a tough 24-22 loss to Green Bay. The Steelers are off a 36-10 loss to Kansas City. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be loving their chances as they're 6-3-1 the last ten in this series. Each teams averages and concedes roughly the same amount of points. This is Roethlisberger's final game at Heinz Field though, as he's all but announced that he'll be retiring at the end of the year. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, but look for "home field" to be the difference today. The play is Pittsburgh! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* AFC GAME OF YEAR Miami Dolphins. Miami has won seven straight, most recently beatting New Orleans 20-3. The Dolphins current win streak has vaulted them into the final playoff spot in the AFC. Overall Miami averages 20.3 PPG, while allowing 21. On paper, that doesn't sound like a recipie for success, but those numbers are skewed after its terrible start to the season. In last weekend's win, QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 19 of 26 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown. Tennessee is off a 20-17 win over San Francisco. The Titans average 23.8 PPG, while allowing 21.7. QB Ryan Tannehill had 209 yards passing and one TD in last weekend's victory. The Fish don't run the ball particularly well, but Tagovailoa is going to be able to exploit this Titans' secondary. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm going to grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEMSON Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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12-28-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 503 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI New Orleans was kind to us last Sunday night, so we almost feel a bit bad playing against them here. But the situation has gotten bleak for the 7-7 Saints, who placed quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the COVID-19 list Thursday. That means fourth string rookie Ian Book will be making his first NFL start Monday night. Keep in mind that the Saints’ offense only scored nine points last week. The defense, which shut out Tom Brady, is also now dealing with multiple COVID-related absences. Now Miami, another 7-7 team, was kind to us last week as well, in that they didn’t cover the spread. But the Dolphins still picked up their sixth straight win, beating the Jets 24-17. It shouldn’t be much trouble for a red-hot team to beat a COVID-depleted opponent, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS during their six-game win streak. Shockingly, the Saints defense gives up 402 yards/game at home, most in the NFL. Once a power-house in primetime, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight night games, including 1-3 this year. Miami is the call here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEVADA No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them. Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON These teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. Dallas won in Week 14, 27-20, just barely covering as 6.5 point favorites thanks to Washington missing an extra point. A second win over the Football Team would clinch the NFC East for the Cowboys, who are already in the playoffs by virtue of a 21-6 win last week over the Giants. Entering this week, Dallas is tied with Green Bay for the best ATS record in the league. Washington, now 6-8, is fighting for its playoff life after a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The short week does the Football Team no favors, but they are at home and set to get QB Heinicke back from the COVID list. We also think this number is too big. Dallas scored just two offensive touchdowns last week. Washington is 4-1-1 its past six games as an underdog. The Cowboys have not won back to back games by double digits at any point this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct 24 at Green Bay. The Cowboys have been very lucky to force four turnovers in each of the last games. Grab the points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KC Pittsburgh has no business having a winning record as all seven wins this year have been one-score games and they’re -44 in point differential. This is a team that's being outgained by 50 yards/game. In four of their last five games, the Steelers have been down by double digits. They were able to overcome a 13-3 deficit last week to beat Tennessee, but are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins. Their only other SU win since early November (other than last week) was by one point over Baltimore, who went for two and the win instead of forcing overtime. The Steelers lost by 31 to Cincinnati, trailed the Chargers by 17 in the second half and the Vikings 29-0. Kansas City is not having any such issues at the moment. They have seven in a row and covered the spread five straight times. Before last week’s overtime win over the Chargers, the KC defense had allowed 17 points or less six weeks in a row. The Steelers’ offense isn’t good at all. For the Chiefs’ offense, Tyreke Hill has been activated from the COVID list. Take the far better team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY No matter if it’s Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum or Bernie Kosar, the Browns don’t stand a chance at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in 2021 home games. The six wins have come by an average of 13.7 points. Last week’s win in Baltimore got too close for comfort at the end, but Green Bay was up big in that one and we don’t see them making the same mistake of letting Cleveland hang around here. The Browns are getting their COVID players back this week, but that comes at a bit of a price. With so many players out last week, the game was moved to Monday. That now puts them on a very short week. In the last six games, the Browns are averaging 13.6 points, which would rank 30th in the league ahead of just the Giants and Jaguars. Also, the team’s best defensive player, Myles Garrett, may not play in this game. Green Bay has put up 31 or more points each of the last four weeks. This is no contest. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF We really like San Francisco in this Thursday night matchup. They are playing much better than Tennessee at the moment and the Titans’ alarming number of absences only continues to grow. It was announced Wednesday that the entire starting left side of the Titans’ offensive line - tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold - will miss this game. That seems particularly ill-timed as the 49ers have Nick Bosa, who has recorded 15 sacks this year and one in each of the last six games. Of course, the Titans were already without Derrick Henry and we’ve seen the effect on their offense as they’ve gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points. Their only win in those four games was over the hapless Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games and now control their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. Go back to the start of the season and you may remember that many were predicting the Niners to be one of this year’s most improved teams. They just rocked Atlanta 31-13 at home last week. On the road, SF has been a covering machine for Kyle Shanahan, going 15-8 ATS including 4-1 when favored by three or less. The Niners have won 17 of their last 23 road games. They are the better team, so we will lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY AAA |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHI With Minnesota desperately needing a win tonight, this line has skyrocketed. The Vikings are one of five NFC teams currently with six or seven wins and the Saints shocking upset of the Buccaneers last night puts even more pressure on the road team to win here. While it is true that the Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to suffer a defeat by more than eight points, they also have just one win by more than eight points and that was back in Week 3 against Seattle. Not sure how you can trust this team laying more than a field goal on the road after watching them blow nearly all of a 29-0 lead last week at home to Pittsburgh. Minnesota is never as good away from home where they are giving up 29.2 points/game as opposed to the 21.2 per game they allow at home. They have just two road wins all year. Plus they are just 5-16 at Soldier Field this century and 1-5 overall in the last six meetings with the Bears. QB Cousins has a terrible 1-9 record on Monday Night Football. The Bears were winning at halftime last week at Green Bay, so don’t be fooled by that final score. Three of the four previous games were decided by three points or less. We’re grabbing the points. How can you trust Minnesota to win big on the road? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS So much has changed since the Saints defeated the Buccaneers 36-27 as four point home dogs back in Week 8. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to injury in that win and hasn’t really gotten great quarterback play since. After beating Tampa, the Saints lost their next five games, a streak which finally ended last week by beating the Jets 30-9. The Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS as double digit favorites this season and have a 6-0 record at home. So it’s not a surprise that they are such big favorites for Sunday Night Football. But we still like this Saints’ defense and think they can keep it close. Trevor Siemian took a lot of the snaps for NO in the first game vs. the Bucs. Now it’s going to be Taysom Hill, who adds a different dimension to the offense. Tampa’s defense showed that it was not very good last week, letting Buffalo come back from a 21-point halftime deficit to force overtime. Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup last week after missing four games. The Saints have won the last six regular season meetings with the Bucs. Do they win here? Probably not. But they will stay within the number. So take the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Last week, the SuperBook had the look-ahead line for this game at Bengals -3. But due to last week’s results, we’re now a long ways away from that look-ahead line. Denver definitely didn’t have any problem winning 38-10 last week, but that was against a 1-win Detroit team that was playing shorthanded. As for Cincinnati, they came all the way back from a 20-6 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime. But after kicking a FG to go up 23-20, the defense gave up a TD to lose 26-23. With both the Bengals and Broncos coming in at 7-6, this is a massive game for both teams’ playoff hopes. The bloom has come off the “Cincinnati rose” a bit in recent weeks as the Bengals have lost two straight at home. But they still have a +61 point differential and are 4-1 on the road. We think the Bengals are better than the Broncos. No team has scored more touchdowns outside the red zone than Cincy. Joe Burrow’s finger injury doesn’t look to be a problem as he threw for over 300 yards last week. We really can’t see the Bengals losing three straight after such a good start to the year. Home favorites of less than a field goal have performed quite poorly this NFL season. They are 6-14 straight up and ATS. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-19-21 | Jets +9.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NY JETS Miami returns from its bye on a five-game win streak (also 5-0 ATS) and at 6-7 for the year. They are just one game behind the Bills for second place in the AFC East and very much still alive in the playoff hunt. Down at the bottom of the division is the Jets, who are 3-10 and coming off a rather ugly 30-9 home loss to New Orleans. While we can understand the lack of enticement for the Jets in this spot, this is a lot of points for Miami to lay. The Dolphins still only average 19.5 points/game. They were 6.5 point favorites in their last game and did cover, but that’s the only game this season where the ‘Fins were a favorite of more than 3.5 points. During the win streak, Miami’s average of 2.9 yards per carry ranked dead last in the league and they may not have any of their top three running backs on Sunday. Are the Jets bad? In a word, yes. But only three teams in NFL history have gotten back to .500 after falling six or more games below and it’s happened only once since 1984. If this line reaches double digits, it will be only the second time since 2010 that Miami is favored by 10 or more. What we are saying here is that the line is just too high. The Jets will keep this one close. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Tennessee is 9-4, which believe it or not has them tied with the Patriots and Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. We understand that the Titans beat the Chiefs as well as the likes of the Colts, Bills and Rams. But does this really “feel” like the top team in the AFC? We don’t think so. Do not forget they lost to the Texans. With only a +34 point point differential on the year, Tennessee should probably feel lucky to be 9-4. Remember their point differential was only +14 before sending Urban Meyer to an early retirement last week. The Titans have four wins by three points or less. Now Pittsburgh’s also been a bit lucky in close games. But with their record at only 6-6-1, they are in much more dire need of a win Sunday. At home, we think they get the win they need. Lots of injuries on the Titans' side. There’s no Derrick Henry and no AJ Brown. That’s part of the reason the offense could only manage 3.8 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Key for the Steelers is getting off to a good start. They’ve scored zero first half touchdowns the last three games and found themselves in a 28-0 hole vs. Minnesota last week. But that was a Thursday game, just four days removed from a physical win over the Ravens. Now they’ve had more time to prepare and are at home. As a small favorite, they’ll come up big. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 272 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA AAA |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND The Colts are actually favored here. While they are a good team and probably better than their 7-6 record, Indy isn’t as good as New England, who is the hottest team in the league. The Patriots opened this season at 2-4. Since then, they have both won and covered seven in a row. Both teams are off byes here. But we like the Patriots defense, which has allowed no more than 13 points in six of those last seven wins. That defense is why the Pats were able to get away with throwing just three passes two Mondays ago in Buffalo. It also helped that they ran for 222 yards. Now it’s not as if the Colts aren’t hot themselves. They’ve won four of five and seven of 10 (two losses in overtime). However, three of their last four wins were over the Jets, Jags and Texans aka the three worst teams in the NFL, New England is on an 8-0 run against Indianapolis. While many of the players have changed, Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach for all of those wins. NE has also won all six of its road games this year. The Colts are only 3-4 here at home. The Patriots should be the favorites in this game. Because they are not, we are definitely “getting down.” Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BYU BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was 0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU. AAA |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City has won its last six games and it’s been the defense leading the charge. The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 points/game during the six-game win streak with no opponent scoring more than 17 on them. The last three weeks have seen KC give up exactly nine points in every game. It’s also on a 4-0 ATS run at the betting window. Tonight’s game shapes up as the biggest of the year. The Chiefs have revenge for a 30-24 loss back in Week 3. If they win tonight, then it’s a two-game lead in the AFC West. But if they lose, they’re tied with the Chargers and would lose the tiebreak. We believe in KC, not just because of the defense, but also Patrick Mahomes. Despite having what is considered a “down year,” Mahomes is still fifth in the league with 3,642 passing yards. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week on the Raiders. They were -4 in turnovers in the first meeting with the Chargers and got outscored 16-7 in the fourth quarter. That turnover margin negated a 437-352 edge in total yards and 33-21 edge in first downs. The Chiefs have won seven straight road games over the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the sport. On the COVID front, LA could be without 2-3 starting offensive linemen. Look for Kansas City to get its revenge tonight and keep rolling. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS After enduring an 0-3 November (SU and ATS), the Rams had what amounted to a “get well game” last week as they throttled the Jaguars 37-7. That leaves them two games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West and tonight is pretty much a “must win” if the Rams have any hope of winning the division. That’s because they lost the first meeting with Arizona, 37-20, back in Week 4 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Here’s why we think tonight will be different for the Rams. For starters, the Cardinals are just 3-2 since a 7-0 start. Also, while Arizona is 7-0 SU on the road, they are just 3-2 at home. Going back further, the Cards are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home favorite. Going into Sunday, any home favorite of three points or less was just 6-13 straight up and against the spread this year in the NFL. Sean McVay was 8-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals prior to the Week 4 loss. Don’t be fooled by the fact Arizona won 33-22 last week. They were outgained 329-257 and had 12 fewer first downs than the Bears. The key to the Cardinals winning at Soldier Field was being +4 in the turnover department. Thanks to roster additions like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr, the Rams are a stronger team now than they were back in Week 4. This game is more important to them, so we are taking the points. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Back in Week 6, Green Bay (-5.5) defeated Chicago 24-14 at Soldier Field. It was during that game Packers QB Aaron Rodgers quipped about “owning” the Bears. Rodgers has a point. Only Brett Favre has more wins over Chicago during the Super Bowl era. Favre went 23-13 vs. the Bears in his career. Rodgers might have fewer wins than his predecessor, but has been more profitable to bet on with a 19-6 ATS (21-5 SU) head to head record against the “Monsters of the Midway.” The Bears have won just one game since that Week 6 loss. That was on Thanksgiving against the Lions where they needed a last second field goal to win 16-14. Justin Fields is expected to start Sunday night for Chicago. But honestly who cares? The Bears offense is no better with Fields than it is with Andy Dalton. Lame duck coach Matt Nagy is calling the plays either way. Green Bay is playing at home and coming off the bye. The Pack are 5-0 SU and ATS in Lambeau, scoring 27.8 points/game while allowing just 14.4. In the last two games, GB has scored 31 and 36 points. The Bears have yet to score more than 27 in any game all season and have scored 20 or less a total of eight times. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO In blustery conditions, the Bills went down 14-10 at the hands of the Patriots Monday night. It’s a loss that leaves them at 7-5 and two games off the pace in the division. Given how this season started, it’s kind of shocking to see Buffalo with five losses right now. Even more strange is that New England was able to win despite attempting only three passes! You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attempt a lot more than that. But fortunately, the Bills’ pass defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game (165.3) and fewest touchdowns allowed (8). The Bills’ offense won’t have to contend with horrible weather conditions here in Tampa Bay, so look for Josh Allen and the passing attack to be revitalized. Even after Monday, Buffalo still averages 28.0 points/game, placing them in the top five in the league. Tampa is undefeated at home, but they’ve previously hosted the Giants, Bears, Dolphins, Falcons and Cowboys. Only the Cowboys have a winning record out of that group and the Bucs beat them by just two points. Buffalo has been an underdog only one other time this season. It was against Kansas City, a game they won 38-20. The perception right now is that the Bucs are a lot better than the Bills. But we don’t agree with that and will take the points. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army AAA |
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12-09-21 | Steelers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT These are two teams desperately needing a win as each tries to remain relevant in their respective conference’s playoff race. There’s no doubt that the Steelers are in better shape right now at 6-5-1 and coming off a surprise 20-19 win over the Ravens. While Pittsburgh now has to hit the road on a short week, they are facing a 5-7 Vikings team that just lost to the Lions and has two key playmakers on offense banged up. WR Thielen will not play for Minnesota tonight. RB Dalvin Cook reportedly will, but we don’t think he’ll be all that effective after suffering a dislocated left shoulder 11 days ago. You’ve got to think this will end up being a close game. The Steelers and Vikings have combined to play 24 games this season. Of those, 19 have been one-score games. That’s one of the reasons we’re taking the points tonight. The other is that the Steelers have a much better defense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in half of their games. Minnesota has kept only three opponents under 20 points and over the last seven games they’ve allowed 28 or more five times. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUF Two of the best teams in the NFL face off Monday night as the 7-4 Bills host the 8-4 Patriots. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve won and covered six straight games with five of those victories coming by at least 18 points. But tonight is easily the Patriots’ toughest matchup of the season, let alone since they got hot. Having not played since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. Conversely, New England is yet to have a bye (they are off next week). So that would really seem to favor the home team. We know that the Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but those wins have been against the Jets, Texans, Chargers, Panthers and Falcons. Only one of those five (Chargers) has a winning record. Three of the other four are among the worst teams in the league. With a visit to Tampa Bay scheduled for next week and a future visit to New England also on the docket, tonight is “must win” for the Bills at home. It should be a fired-up crowd and after being embarrassed (41-15 by the Colts) in their last home game, Buffalo is going to look to make a “statement” Monday night. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS We know the Rams have lost three in a row. But we can’t see them struggling to beat a 2-9 Jacksonville outfit that has not cleared 17 points in any of its last five games. Despite being only 1.5 point home dogs, the Jaguars lost last week 21-14 to the Falcons. That was their third straight loss since a stunning 9-6 win over the Bills in Week 9. The Rams' last three losses have all been to winning teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers), which doesn’t make it any better, especially because they closed as favorites in all three games. Going back even further, LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. But this has all the makings of a “get well” game for the NFC West contingent. The Jags are second to last in offense at 15.7 points/game. The Rams average 27.2 points/game and that’s when facing better competition than they’ll see on Sunday. Against sub-.500 teams, LA is 5-0 this year with the average win coming by 16.2 points. This is their firs game at home since acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham. It should be an inspired effort. Jacksonville has lost 15 straight non-conference games and knows its season is basically “over” at this point. We don’t expect the underdog to put up much resistance in this one. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA Minnesota needs to string a couple wins together or they run the risk of falling out of playoff contention. Fortunately, the Vikings are facing the winless Lions this week. Coming up short in San Francisco last week leaves the Vikes at 5-6 SU overall. All six losses have been one-possession games, four by four points or less and two in overtime. As for Detroit, they just let their best chance at a win slip away on Thanksgiving, losing 16-14 to the Bears. The Lions have also dropped four games by four points or less. One was at Minnesota, 19-17 in Week 5, which came down to a last second FG. We don’t think the rematch will be quite as close as the Vikings should be “out for blood” this Sunday. Look for WR Jefferson to have a big game as not only was he named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, but he had seven catches for 124 yards in the first meeting. This terrible Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1. Neither team will have its starting RB. But Detroit has lost eight straight times to Minnesota, a streak that goes all the way back to 2017. Dan Campbell is not the man for the job nor is Jared Goff. Lay the number is this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK STATE #5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP. While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTAH It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It’s not the most attractive matchup on Monday night, but we like the Seahawks to cover against the Washington Football Team. While Seattle is a very disappointing 3-7, this is a game they can certainly win. Last week, the ‘Hawks were favored to beat 9-2 Arizona. We know that game was at home and the Cardinals didn’t have Kyler Murray. But it’s certainly a bit jarring to see them go from being favored to beat the team with the best record in the league to underdogs against a 4-6 Football Team. Now Washington has won two straight. One of those was against Tampa Bay. Then they went on the road to upset Carolina last week. But the Football Team is still a subpar outfit. Seattle might have some injuries, but they have Russell Wilson. They also have the highest win percentage in the history of Monday Night Football, including 11 wins in the past 14 appearances. We see this as a classic buy low spot on the Seahawks, who are the better team. We’re getting a good number as the lookahead line had them favored by 3.5 points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JAX Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Panthers -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAR Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-27-21 | Maryland -1.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 40-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARYLAND You’ve got two 5-6 teams facing off in a regular season finale. That means the winner gets to be bowl eligible while the loser is done for the year. Maryland has not covered a single Big 10 game this season. So the fact they have a chance to be bowl eligible seems pretty fortunate. Their two conference wins were by three over Indiana and by three over Illinois. The past six losses have all been by 17 or more points. But we’re taking them against a Rutgers team whose only two Big 10 victories happen to be at the expense of Indiana and Illinois. The Scarlet Knights, who haven’t won a conference game at home since 2017, were shutout 28-0 last week by Penn State. That was the third time in five games that they didn’t score more than seven points. Other than a 38-3 win at Indiana, Rutgers has not scored more than 20 points in any Big 10 game this year. They just don’t have enough offense to be taken seriously. Six of the last eight games have seen the Scarlet Knights score 13 or less. Maryland QB Tagovailoa had three straight 350+ yard games before running into Michigan last Saturday. All the Terps offense needs here is 21 points and that seems pretty attainable. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB -13.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB AAA |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-25-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO At one time, Buffalo looked to be the best team in the NFL. Three losses in the last five games have really tempered enthusiasm though. Yet we still believe in the team from upstate NY. The Bills have the league’s second best point differential at +119. Their top ranked defense was shredded on Sunday by Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored five touchdowns. But that was a very misleading 41-15 final score. What if we told you that the Bills gained more yards per play than the Colts in that game? They did. The problem was they were -4 in the turnover battle. We think they bounce back Thanksgiving Night against the reeling Saints. New Orleans has lost three in a row. They were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles on Sunday in a 40-29 loss. Trevor Siemian, filling in for an injured Jameis Winston, is not getting it done at quarterback. The injuries are starting to pile up in the Big Easy as TE Trautman is out 4-6 weeks and OT Young will have season-ending foot surgery. The Saints are pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. Buffalo, who is 3-0 ATS off a straight up loss this year, is the only team in the league to be top three in both scoring offense and defense. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NIU The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -5 | Top | 37-41 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAC Ben Roethlisberger passed COVID-19 protocols on Saturday and the expectation is that he will start tonight. But the Steelers aren’t a very good team. Without Big Ben, they tied the Lions last week in a very ugly game. While their record is 5-3-1, the Steelers have been outscored. We mentioned last week that none of their five wins this year have come by more than eight points. So they are probably a bit lucky to have a winning record coming into this game with the Chargers, who are looking to bounce back from a loss to Minnesota that leaves them at 5-4. The Chargers also have a slightly negative point differential on the year. But they’ve impressed us more as they’ve played only one bad game (at Baltimore). West coast teams usually have the edge in night games. The Steelers are banged up on the defensive side of the ball (no TJ Watt) while the Chargers may be getting Joey Bosa back. The Steelers average only 18.3 points/game on the road. The Chargers average 27.3 points/game. Justin Herbert is simply a much better QB than Big Ben at this stage of the game. Herbert will take advantage of that banged up Steelers defense. Lay the points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEA It’s looking like Kyler Murray won’t play for Arizona. That’s bad news for a Cardinals team that lost last week to Carolina, 34-10. If Murray can’t go, then Colt McCoy will again be at the helm. McCoy suffered a pectoral injury in the loss last week, so Arizona is really banged up at QB. They’ve also lost two of their last three games after a 7-0 start. Now Seattle obviously has its own set of problems as they are 3-6 and were shut out by the Packers 17-0 last week. Russell Wilson’s return to the lineup proved to be a real ‘dud’, but at least he’s back. Wilson threw two interceptions in the end zone against the Packers, which really proved to be the difference in the game. We expect Wilson will play a lot better this week in a game the Seahawks really “have to have.” The Seahawks’ offense scored 28 or more points in three of the first four weeks of the season, all with Wilson healthy. Having their starting QB back at the same time Arizona has major injury issues at the position is pretty fortuitous. We will take advantage of the situation here by taking the Seahawks, who are 36-15-4 ATS their last 55 games off a loss. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-21-21 | Lions +13 v. Browns | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT The Lions are still winless, but they covered for us last week in Pittsburgh. We had them as nine-point underdogs in a game that ended up being a 16-16 tie. Now that line came down, by a lot, when it was announced Ben Roethlisberger wouldn’t play for the Steelers. But no matter what number you got the Lions at, it was an ATS win. The opponent this week (Cleveland) doesn’t have a backup QB, but they are a mess (lost 45-7 at New England last week) and should not be this large of a favorite against anyone right now. The Browns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and one of the two games they covered was a three-point win. They did not cover the previous time they were double digit favorites (-13.5 vs. Houston). They have just two wins by more than 10 points this season. Meanwhile, as poor as this season has gone for the Lions, they’ve lost by more than 10 points only three times. They are 5-1 ATS when getting four or more points and have covered three straight road games. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 9* on HAWAII We can’t see a Colorado State team that’s lost four straight games and has no shot at a bowl performing very well out in Hawaii this week. The home team is 2-0-1 ATS as a dog in Honolulu this year. That record could be 3-0 ATS depending on your closing line for the San Diego State game. The Rainbow Warriors are on a three-game losing streak themselves, but unlike CSU, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they win the final two games. This is also the final home game of the year, which is always a special atmosphere. Injuries are starting to pile up for the visitors and the defense just gave up over 500 yards last week in a loss to Air Force. Hawaii is the healthier team at this juncture of the season and has a winning record at home. The only team that Colorado State has beaten on the road is New Mexico, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Oregon, despite being the #3 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, is an underdog this week at Utah. We agree with the linesmakers on this one. The Utes are #23 in the country, so they’re obviously a team to be respected. They average (ever so slightly) more points per game than do the Ducks. They give up only slightly more. The number of yards gained per game by the two offenses is nearly identical. The Utes have scored 34 or more points each of their last six games. So, despite what the rankings say, you’ve got two pretty identical teams here. Both offenses will look to establish the run. But Utah has the home field edge. They’ve won 17 of their last 18 games in Salt Lake City. In the last three head to head meetings between Utah and Oregon, whomever has been at home has won. Oregon has lost a game in the month of November each of the previous six seasons. If you’re like us and you don’t think that the Ducks are going to make the Playoff, then it stands to reason that this is the game they are likely to lose. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-20-21 | Washington -6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington has had a rough couple of weeks with coach Jimmy Lake being fired. The Huskies are 4-6 and one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. But they can still make a bowl game if they win out for interim coach Bob Gregory, who previously served as defensive coordinator. Such motivation does not exist in Boulder where Colorado is 3-7 following a 44-20 defeat at the hands of UCLA last week. Two key players - LB Gustav and WR Lemonious-Craig - both suffered season-ending injuries in that game. So a bad team just got worse. Since joining the Pac 12, the Buffaloes have beaten UW just one time - back in 2019 as 14-point underdogs. Prior to that, it had been seven consecutive double digit losses by an average of 28.9 points/game. Washington seemingly was on its way to a win over Arizona State last week before giving away the game in the fourth quarter. The defense has allowed the second fewest yards in the Pac 12. We think the Huskies keep their bowl hopes alive with a big win on Saturday. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-21 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -35.5 | Top | 16-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in the country, heads to Lexington this week to face a Kentucky team that was once ranked as high as #11. NMSU just got done facing another SEC team, Alabama, and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. The Aggies lost 59-3 and thus didn’t even cover as 50.5 point underdogs. It’s been a long season in Las Cruces as the team is 1-9 and that one win was against South Carolina State, who is not even a FBS program. The nine games versus FBS foes have not only all resulted in defeat, but seven of them have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Kentucky started the year at 7-0 (this is when they were ranked 11th), but then lost to Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee. They got back in the win column last week with a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. That game was 31-3 at halftime. The Wildcats are on a 14-game win streak against non-conference teams and are done with SEC play for the year. Because they are honoring the 22 seniors beforehand, UK will be “up” for this game. A defense that’s quite good could pitch a shutout here. The offense will have no problem scoring 40 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -15 | Top | 35-19 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Our view is that Louisiana Tech should roll in this Friday night Conference USA battle. Their opponent, Southern Miss, is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Golden Eagles have just one win all year and that was against a FCS school (Grambling) back in September. Eight of their nine losses this year have been by double digits, five of them coming by 24 points or greater. USM did hang tough last week in a surprising showing at UTSA. But they used a “gimmicky” offense to do so and it resulted in their best player (RB Frank Gore Jr) getting injured. The offense still only gained 189 yards vs. UTSA and would have lost by 17 if not for the defense returning an interception for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech at least has some confidence after beating Charlotte 42-32 last week. This is their final home game, so the Bulldogs should be plenty motivated to go out and win big. They are 12-5 ATS following a straight up win. Louisiana Tech had over 500 yards of offense last week and a similar effort is quite possible tonight, which would likely mean a comfortable victory. Play on LOUISIANA TECH AAA |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NE It seems safe to say that all signs point to a New England blowout tonight. The Patriots have won their last four games by a combined 100 points. They beat Cleveland 45-7 on Sunday, outgaining the Browns 2:1 and not allowing any points after the opening drive. Going on the road has not been a problem for these Patriots as they are 4-0 SU away from Foxboro with those four wins coming by an average of 10.5 points/game. Atlanta is 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home. They just got beat 43-3 in Dallas. Their top receiver Calvin Ridley is out and running back Cordarrelle Patterson is a game-time decision. Even if Patterson plays, we expect the Falcons offense to be ineffective in this game. They are 25th in scoring and 29th in rush yards. It doesn’t help that the defense is also 29th in points allowed. Though the 4-5 record doesn’t seem bad, Atlanta has been outscored by 85 points this year. This is a top five team against a bottom five team. Lay the points. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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11-18-21 | Louisville -19.5 v. Duke | Top | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville Louisville should not have any problem beating up on a sorry Duke team Thursday night. The Cardinals enter this game off an impressive 41-3 win over Syracuse. That was a Syracuse team that had covered its previous seven games. As impressive as last week’s performance was, the Cardinals are still in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. Next week is the final regular season game and it’s against Kentucky. While at home, that is by no means a guaranteed win. So we look for L’vile to handle it’s business on Thursday against a Duke team that is 0-6 its last six games. Five of the six losses have been by 25 points or more! On Saturday it was a 48-17 loss at Virginia Tech. We see no reason to expect the Blue Devils to keep this one any closer. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback. The win over Syracuse may have been Louisville’s largest over a FBS team in six years. But we see no reason why they can’t repeat the effort tonight against a much worse team. After facing six straight opponents that had winning records, this should be a “walk in the park” for the road team. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The won-loss records of these two teams are quite misleading. Northern Illinois is 7-3 but has allowed more points than it has scored. Buffalo is 4-6 but has scored more than it has allowed. Hence the short number for this bit of Wednesday night “MAC-tion.” We’re going to side with the home team here, even though it is coming off back to back losses. Buffalo still has something to play for; if they were to win the next two games, then they become bowl eligible with six wins. The Bulls were MAC East Champs last year and would love to spoil Northern Illinois’ dreams of getting to the Conference Championship Game. The Huskies have won four games this year by a total of five points, which is nothing short of incredible and also very lucky. Last week was their third one-point win of 2021 as they kicked a last season FG to get by Ball State 30-29. But that was at home. The Huskies’ defense ranks ninth in the MAC in yards allowed (448.3 ypg) and seventh in scoring (30.8 points/game). Two weeks ago, they surrendered 52 points and 688 yards to Kent State! Buffalo’s defense is first in sacks while NIU is last (among MAC teams). Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY It was ugly but Kansas City got a 13-7 win last week over Green Bay (who was without Aaron Rodgers). The Chiefs could not cover the inflated number though, so they are now 4-16 against the spread in their last 20 games. It may seem risky to lay points with Patrick Mahomes on the road right now, but we’re going to do it Sunday night in Las Vegas. The Raiders were exposed a bit in last week’s 23-16 loss to the Giants. It is true that they had 156 more total yards than their opponent. But this is a team that has now lost to the Giants and Bears, plus needed overtime to get by the lowly Dolphins. Looking at this pair of five-win AFC West teams, we are more confident in the Chiefs making a second half run than we are the Raiders. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -116 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE So the Seahawks are set to get Russell Wilson back. We do not yet know if the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers on the field. What we do know is that without Rodgers, the Packers could only score seven points against a Chiefs defense that is terrible. We also know that the Seahawks are a much better team with Wilson under center. Wilson is 24-12-2 ATS in his pro career as an underdog. When getting four or more points, he is 10-1 against the spread with seven outright wins. If Rodgers cannot play Sunday, then this line is a steal. Even if we knew he was playing, we’d still take the points. Why? All things considered, these teams are pretty even. Seattle’s point differential is +12. Green Bay, despite being 7-2, has a point differential of +19. The Packers are not as good as their straight up record and their ATS win streak, currently tied for the longest in the last three NFL seasons, is due to end. It won’t be until late Saturday that Rodgers’ status for this game becomes official. So even if he does play, that’s less than 24 hours to prepare. By the way, the Seahawks are coming off a bye. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | Top | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 41 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT Coming out of a bye, is this the time for the Lions to finally win? The league’s only winless team (0-8) visits Pittsburgh this week. If you think the Steelers are as good as their 5-3 SU record, then you’re crazy. They nearly threw the game away Monday night vs. Chicago. By the way, how about the nice little scheduling advantage for the road team? They’re not coming off a bye, but also facing a team on a short week. The Steelers are only averaging 20.1 points, so why would you lay a big number with them? The Bears outgained them 414-280. It was the third game in a row that Pittsburgh won by five points or less. None of their wins this year have come by more than eight points. Going back to the end of last season, the Steelers have failed to cover the last eight times they were favored. Not only is Detroit 8-1 ATS coming off a bye week the last nine seasons, but teams 0-5 or worse coming off a bye are 18-6 ATS all-time. Definitely grab the points in this one. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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11-13-21 | Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME People seem to have forgotten about Notre Dame? The Irish have won four straight since losing to Cincinnati. They’ve covered the spread in all four of those wins as well. That Cincinnati game is their only loss and we certainly don’t see them losing Saturday night in Charlottesville to Virginia. The Hoos had their own four-game winning run snapped two weeks ago. They gave up 66 points in a loss to BYU. While they did score 48 or more for a third straight game - and are now coming off a bye - we just don’t see the home team having enough to stay inside the number against a clearly more talented football team. Even with the bye, Virginia may not have QB Brennan Armstrong, who sustained a rib injury against BYU. That would be a crushing blow to the home team’s hopes here. Notre Dame is already 3-0 this season vs. ACC teams need a big win to impress the playoff committee. They get it here. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -10.5 | Top | 42-40 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina starting quarterback Grayson McCall is out with an injury. He missed last week’s game against Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers still won 28-8. We liked them in that game and will take them again here, laying the points as this line is a bargain. Backup QB Bryce Carpenter didn’t have to do much last week. However, he ended up completing 66% of his passes. Were McCall in the lineup, we’d project this spread to be close to three touchdowns. Is McCall really worth almost 10 points? Probably not! Georgia State has the 103rd ranked pass defense in the country as it gives up 257 yards/game through the air. Carpenter will probably play well. Coastal has scored 27 or more points in all nine games this season. Georgia State has topped 28 just once. The Chants have won 12 straight home games and last year they beat GSU on the road by 51 points. AAA |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA November is when Oklahoma typically starts to roll. The Sooners haven’t lost a November game since 2014, well before current head coach Lincoln Riley first arrived in Norman. They’ve won 23 straight November games, including 21 when favored. OU enters this game against Baylor with an undefeated record in 2021 (9-0) and we think they’ll stay that way. This is the second shortest line for one of their games all year. They were four point favorites for the Texas game, which they came back and won 55-48. At the time, that was the Sooners third straight close victory. Since then, they’ve won by double digits three straight times. It was 52-21 over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Last week they were off. Baylor suffered just its second loss of the year last weekend as they went down 30-28 at the hands of TCU. Coming off a loss and facing a rested OU team is not what we’d call a “good situation” for the Bears. Since the switch at quarterback to Caleb Williams, the Sooners have averaged 48.5 points/game. They are still only 8th in the CFP rankings, so look for them to make a definitive “statement” to the committee here. Lay it! Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13.5 | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Boise State is 14-1 all-time vs. Wyoming with the lone loss taking place in Laramie back in 2016. The first 10 meetings, all won by Boise, were decided by an average of 26 points/game. The last five have been closer games with four decided by single digits. The visiting team has covered 11 of the last 15 times. While we do acknowledge that this Boise team isn’t as good as years past, they are coming off their two most impressive wins of the 2021 season. They went to Colorado State and won 28-19 then last Saturday went to Fresno State and won 40-14 as a 4.5 point underdog. Wyoming also won as an underdog (+3) last week. They beat Colorado State 31-17. But the Cowboys’ previous four conference games had all ended in defeat and they went 0-4 ATS as well. This is a team that also struggled to beat UConn. While Boise has the same 5-4 SU record as Wyoming, the Broncos are at least 3-2 in conference play. They’ve lost two games this year where they had a double digit lead. So their record could be better. We like this to be a three touchdown win for the home side. Before last week’s win, Wyoming had not scored more than 21 points in any conference game. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI The history between the Ravens and Dolphins has been very one-sided. Baltimore has won eight of the last nine meetings and gone 9-0 ATS! The three most recent meetings (2016, ‘17 and ‘19) have seen the Ravens win by a combined score of 137-16! However, lets not forget what happened just three weeks ago. The Ravens played a Cincinnati team they were known for dominating. We said to take the points with the Bengals and sure enough THEY won the game 41-14! Miami probably is not capable of doing the same thing. But we do expect them to keep this Thursday night game within one score. Most Ravens’ wins this year have been close. Like last week when they beat Minnesota in overtime after trailing by two touchdowns. It was the fourth Baltimore win this year by fewer than seven points and second in overtime. Remember the Monday night game vs. Indianapolis where we played against them? That should have been a loss for the Ravens (they won, but did not cover). Miami was also a winner last week, with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB, so that should give them some confidence heading into Thursday night. The Ravens, 0-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, are not as good as their record. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh is having a better season than North Carolina. The Panthers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread while the Tar Heels are just 5-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. But UNC is coming off an impressive come from behind win over Wake Forest, who was undefeated. Impressive as the win was, the Tar Heels still gave up 55 points. They’ve allowed an average of 47 points their last three games. That is never good, but going up against a Pitt offense that scores 45 per game means real trouble. There have been four times this year that the Panthers have scored 50 or more points. One of those was last week as they beat Duke 54-29. That game would have ended up as an even bigger blowout had Pitt not allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. It hasn’t been just the last three games where UNC has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 33.4 points/game for the entire season and that number is second worst in the entire ACC. The Tar Heels haven’t won on the road in 2021 (0-3), are 1-5 ATS their last six games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS their last eight games following an ATS win. Lay it. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NIU Northern Illinois suffered its first conference loss of the season last week. It was 52-47 to Kent State. The Huskies sure don’t seem to have the oddsmakers’ respect. They were underdogs at Kent State and they are underdogs here to Ball State, even though they’re at home. Ball State is just 3-6 ATS. The Cardinals did not cover the spread in a 31-25 win over Akron last Tuesday. The week before that saw them lose at home to Miami OH. We remember BSU winning the MAC Championship last season, but this year’s team hasn’t been as good. NIU put up season highs in points and yards last week, despite losing. The Huskies have been in every game besides the loss to Michigan. They’re looking to end a two-year losing streak to Ball State. Before losing the last two meetings, they’d won 10 in a row. This game is going to go a long way in deciding the MAC West. We believe the home team gets the job done as they are 9-2 ATS L11 games after an ATS loss. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Home field advantage has not meant much in previous Ohio-Eastern Michigan meetings. Each of the last three times these teams have met, whoever has been the road team has covered the spread. The last two times the road team was an underdog and won straight up. So recent history is on Ohio’s side tonight. Long-term history is as well with the Bobcats owning a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS advantage over EMU going back to 1997. Ohio can’t make a bowl this year, but has covered four of its last five games and pulled an upset last Tuesday against Miami. They were 35-33 winners as seven point home underdogs. The defense shut Miami out in the first half. Eastern Michigan was also an upset winner last Tuesday as they downed Toledo 52-49 as a nine point dog. But their defense yielded a somewhat shocking 672 yards. With four losses by seven points or less, Ohio is better than its 2-7 record. We like them to keep this one close. Play on OHIO AAA |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Chicago is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and 0-3 ATS the last three games overall. But Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS when favored in 2021, losing two of the games straight up. So something is going to have to give on Monday Night Football. This is actually the most points that the Steelers have been favored by in any game all season. It was a wacky Sunday in the NFL and a Bears win here would certainly follow the pattern of results we saw yesterday. We’re not confident enough to predict the underdog winning outright here, but we do like the points. All four of the Steelers’ wins this year have been by one score. Chicago’s 3-5 SU record is not all that surprising when you consider they have faced six teams that have winning records. They didn’t have coach Matt Nagy on the sidelines last week because of COVID. Nagy is the play caller on offense. Rookie QB Fields showed some flashes last week vs. the 49ers when he ran for more than 100 yards. When it comes to number of completed passes, Fields’ last two games have been his best. We think this ends up being a close, albeit low-scoring affair. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams don’t need any help right now. They are 7-1 and clearly look to be one of the best teams in the league. But facing Tennessee when the Titans don’t have Derrick Henry is a HUGE break. The Titans have pulled three straight upsets, beating the Chiefs, Bills and Colts. Every game they were an underdog. We had them last week in Indy. But now there’s no Henry, who was the NFL’s leading rusher. Adrian Peterson, who is now 36 years old, is simply not an adequate replacement on that front. The Rams are averaging more than 30 points/game and they were up 38-0 last week. Their defense just got Von Miller, so now they’re even stronger on that side of the ball. History says the Titans are not likely to win this game. Only five teams since 1990 have started a season by winning their first five times as an underdog. Only four teams in HISTORY have won four straight times as an underdog of three or more points. So we will lay the points with a Rams team that was already superior to a Henry-led Titans team. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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11-07-21 | Cardinals +3 v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Win | 105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA So both QB Murray and WR Hopkins are officially “game-time decisions” for Arizona. If one - or both - does not play, that obviously changes the game in a dynamic way. But remember what happened last Sunday night? The Cowboys announced they were resting Dak Prescott. The line shot the other way. The Cowboys won anyway. We believe the Cardinals can win this game, with or without Murray and/or Hopkins. The 49ers are a bit of a mess right now. They’d lost four in a row before defeating Chicago last week. And it wasn’t easy beating the Bears either. The Niners are typically terrible when favored (so we love getting Arizona as an underdog with all the uncertainty) and they have won just once in their new stadium since it opened last year. All the uncertainty over who will be the starting QB (Colt McCoy is Arizona’s backup) makes it tough for San Francisco to prepare. Arizona already beat SF once this year and still has the advantage. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-07-21 | Browns v. Bengals -1 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CINCINNATI Cleveland is a mess right now. Odell Beckham Jr was just waived, Baker Mayfield is both injured and ineffective. If that’s not enough, the Browns have won just one of their last four games and that was a Thursday nighter vs. Denver. Cincinnati is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets, so they won’t be taking the Browns lightly. Despite what happened last week, the Bengals are an improved team in 2021. They’d won back to back games by a total of 47 points before losing to the Jets. One was a 41-17 win at Baltimore. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 0-7 ATS in AFC North Games. This year, the Browns are 0-3 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Cincinnati has covered 10 of the last 12 games in this AFC North rivalry. Joe Burrow is already better than Mayfield. The Browns offensive line has been banged up all year and the defensive front is the strength of this Bengals team. Cleveland has been held to 17 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Lay the points with the favorite. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-07-21 | Falcons v. Saints -6 | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NO New Orleans upset last week, but it was a costly win as Jameis Winston was lost to a season ending injury (ACL). There’s been some debate over who will be the Saints starting quarterback this week. We expect it will be Trevor Siemian, who was in for a good amount of last week’s game. Siemian did a fine job vs. the Bucs. He should do fine against the Falcons, who are one of the league’s worst teams. Atlanta is coming off a 19-13 home loss to Carolina. It was their fifth straight one-score game, but really it wasn’t close as the Falcons trailed the whole way. All three Atlanta wins have been close over bad teams. We just cannot see them going on the road and beating the Saints. New Orleans still has a great defense that is #1 in the red zone. Atlanta’s defense gave up more than 200 yards rushing last week. A run game would really be beneficial to Siemian. The Saints are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 division games. They’ve covered five of six over Atlanta. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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11-06-21 | UTSA -11 v. UTEP | Top | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTSA There are six undefeated teams left in College Football. Five of them sit among the top nine in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The sixth is little-known UTSA out of Conference USA, who did not even make the Top 25. Now the Roadrunners are in the Top 20 of both the AP and Coaches Polls. They are 8-0 and - for the most part - blown out the teams on their schedule. They’ve played three games decided by seven points or less. The last one was not one of those. In their first game ever as a ranked team, UTSA crushed Louisiana Tech 45-16 two weeks ago. Coming off a bye, the Roadrunners next face UTEP, another surprising team at 6-2. The Miners have covered five in a row, but lost last week 28-25 at Florida Atlantic. UTSA is actually better than UTEP against the spread, holding a 7-1 season mark in that regard. We think the bye week is big for them coming into the Sun Bowl and they’ve already beaten UTEP four years in a row. Three of the wins have been by double digits. The last time they visited, UTSA was also off a bye and they won handily. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FIU Yes, we’re taking a team that has not won a game all season. Butch Davis’ Florida International Panthers are 0-7 currently. They host a 2-6 Old Dominion team this week. FIU has been on quite the nosedive for some time now. They didn’t win a game last year either. Although that’s somewhat misleading as they played only five games in the pandemic shortened season. It’s been 14 straight losses (including a bowl) for FIU since they pulled a shocking upset over Miami FL (Davis’ former employer) as 20-point underdogs in the second to last game of the 2019 regular season. But Old Dominion has only three wins during that same time frame and two were against FCS programs. The other came last week against Louisiana Tech when they were four point home underdogs. The Monarchs have not won a road game since midway through the 2018 season. (They opted out of 2020). ODU is 1-15 straight up its last 16 road games. Now they are favored on the road. No thank you. Old Dominion has gone 25 straight games without winning by more than a field goal. FIU has won the last two meetings by 7 and 8 points. Play on FIU AAA |
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11-06-21 | Coastal Carolina -17.5 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina was in a tough spot in their last game. They were coming off a crushing last second loss to Appalachian State, which cost them an unbeaten season. Facing Troy, the Chanticleers overcame a slow start to win 35-28 but did not cover the 17-point spread. It was the first game this season where they did not score on their opening possession. But they still racked up over 500 yards of offense. With a couple extra days to prepare (Troy game was on a Thursday), Coastal should come out and lay it to Georgia Southern this week. At least that’s what we think. Georgia Southern is a program in flux right now. Earlier this week, they announced Clay Helton will take over as coach … next season. So acting coach Kevin Whitley is a bit of lame duck these last four games. The Eagles have won only once in their last seven tries. It was a tough loss last week to Georgia State and Coastal will be arguably the toughest opponent of the year. Earlier in 2021, the Eagles lost 45-10 to Arkansas. It’s probably going to be “one of those kinds of games” for them again here as Coastal Carolina averages 44.4 points/game. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Army +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 21-14 | Win | 101 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY This game takes place in Arlington, Texas. Army marches into this week’s combat with a 4-3 record. But they’ve also lost three in a row. The most recent loss was two weeks ago against Wake Forest. It was a 70-56 game that featured more than 1,200 yards of offense. Typically, the kind of performance that Army turned in would be most teams. Two of the Black Knights’ losses have been to Power 5 teams. The other was to Wisconsin. Air Force is 6-2 and its losses came to Utah State and San Diego State. The San Diego State loss was two weeks ago and that’s the last time the Falcons have taken the field. So both service academies are coming off losses. As always, you’ve got to figure this will be a low scoring game. Underdogs have covered 12 of the previous 15 meetings of service academy teams (Army, Navy, Air Force) and won outright eight times. The last seven Army-Air Force games have averaged only 28 points. So you’ve almost got to take the points. Especially with Army beating Air Force three of the last four times they have played. Army needs two more wins to become bowl eligible, so this one matters more to them. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-05-21 | Utah v. Stanford +9 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STANFORD With a 4-1 record in conference play, Utah essentially controls its own destiny in the Pac 12 South. They just defeated UCLA, in a 44-24 rout, last week. That win put the Utes in sole possession of first place in its division. If they were to win tonight and against Arizona and Colorado, who are the South’s two worst teams, they are guaranteed a spot in the Pac 12 Championship Game, no matter what happens against Oregon on 11/20. That being said, this is a lot of points that the Utes are laying here on Friday night. We understand that Stanford has lost three in a row. But the Cardinal are the one team to defeat Oregon this year and that win came here in Palo Alto. Stanford has NEVER beaten Utah in four previous tries at home (also 0-4 ATS), so you know David Shaw is going to have his team hungry “after dark” tonight. The Cardinal were 21 seconds away from a win last week, but gave up a touchdown and a two-point conversion to lose 20-13 to Washington. They were -3 in turnovers in that game, which cost them dearly. Shaw’s team has stepped up in big spots this season, not just against Oregon, but also beating USC. We think they make this a close game. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-04-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Colts | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYJ The Jets picked up their second win of the year last week and did so in pretty shocking fashion. They trailed the Bengals 31-20 with less than five minutes remaining, but were able to put two touchdowns on the board to pull off an improbable 34-31 upset. While the second touchdown was somewhat of a gift (Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw an interception inside his own 20 yard line), the Jets deserved that win for gaining 511 total yards in the contest. That was nearly 200 more than they allowed to Cincinnati. Mike White, making his first NFL start, seemed to provide a huge spark for the offense that just wasn’t there with rookie Zach Wilson under center. White completed 37 of 45 passes against the Bengals for 405 yards and three touchdowns! He’s probably not going to put up those kinds of numbers again tonight, but we do look for White to lead the Jets to at least a cover against the Colts tonight. It was quite the heartbreaker for Indianapolis last week as they fell to division rival Tennessee in overtime. A short week does not do them any favors and we think the Colts may have trouble “getting up” for this game. Laying double digits in this scenario would be unwise. Other than getting blown out by Denver and twice by New England, the Jets have been in every game. White seems to be a spark. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL Louisiana goes for its eighth straight win Thursday night and we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty getting it. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0 at home this season, winning by an average of almost four touchdowns per game. They have put more than 40 on the board each of the last three times they’ve played at Cajun Field. This run includes a very impressive 41-13 bushwhacking of Appalachian State in another mid-week contest. Georgia State is the opponent tonight. The Panthers have won three straight games, but all were against teams at the bottom of the Sun Belt. It was a pretty lucky 21-14 victory last week at Georgia Southern, who turned the ball over three different times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly, that was the difference in the game. Remember that we said Louisiana has scored more than 40 in three straight home games? Unfortunately for Georgia State, they have scored more than 28 points in only one game this season and that was against a really bad Louisiana Monroe team. Look for this game to develop into a blowout. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC At 3-4, the Chiefs need to fix things in a hurry. Luckily for them, they’ve got a matchup with the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Giants should be no match for a Kansas City offense that struggled last week, but is known for putting points on the board. The Chiefs have put up 31 or more points in four of their seven games this season. The Giants have never reached that number even one time. Now we do have to worry about a double digit pointspread tonight. Fortunately, a Chiefs defense that has pitched two straight second half shutouts should have a large hand in covering this double digit number. In three of their seven games, New York has not scored more than 14 points. The Giants did pick up a rare win last week, but even in doing so they barely gained 300 yards. They’ve not exceeded 367 total yards in any of their last three games. Their feeble offense - which is still minus RB Barkley and WR Golladay - just won’t score enough this week to stay within the number. We anticipate something in the neighborhood of 30-14 Chiefs tonight. The Giants are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread vs. the AFC the last three seasons. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-31-21 | Bucs -4.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay lost both regular season games against New Orleans in 2020. But they more than got their revenge in the playoffs when they came to the Superdome and won 30-20. As we all know, the Buccaneers ended up winning the Super Bowl. They remain one of the favorites to do so again this year while the Saints simply are not “what they used to be.” Part of that is Jameis Winston “replacing” the retired Drew Brees. This is not a good matchup for the home team on Sunday. They are working on a short week. While the Saints did win Monday night, it was as unimpressive a win as you’ll see. They beat the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks 13-10 with just over 300 yards of offense. Tampa Bay could not have looked much better last week as they scored five first half touchdowns, then coasted to a 38-3 win against Chicago. Both defenses here are excellent at stopping the run. So it comes down to Tom Brady vs. Winston. Who do you want your money on? Seems like a pretty easy answer, no? Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-31-21 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 34-31 | Win | 109 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TENNESSEE We firmly disagree with fellow bettors on this AFC South matchup. The line has moved to where the Colts are now favored. Yes, the game is in Indianapolis. But Tennessee is the better team here. The Titans are not only coming off impressive wins over the Bills and Chiefs, but back in Week 3 they defeated the Colts 25-16. Since losing in Week 1 to Arizona, Tennessee has not lost a game in regulation. They’ve covered four of the last five division games and five of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. Even more impressive is the Titans’ 4-0 SU/ATS record against teams that made the playoffs last year. The Colts have never been able to stop RB Henry in the past. He has run for 135.5 yards/game in the last four meetings. The three teams that Indy has beaten this year are: Miami, Houston and San Francisco. All of them have losing records. We’ll take the better team getting points. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-31-21 | 49ers -4 v. Bears | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF The 49ers are facing a Bears team that a) isn’t very good and b) won’t have its head coach (primary play caller) on the sidelines. In other words, look for the road team to snap its four game losing streak. Chicago is 3-4, however every loss has been by double digits. They were smoked 38-3 by Tampa Bay last week and that game was 35-3 at halftime. Justin Fields has not provided any kind of upgrade from Andy Dalton at QB. San Francisco was supposed to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. They started 2-0 and things were looking good. But injuries quickly derailed things and they’ve lost a number of close games. This looks to be their most favorable matchup since a 17-11 win at Philadelphia back in Week 2. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS as underdogs. Not only are they without coach Matt Nagy, but top pass rusher Khalil Mack will be M.I.A. today. This should be an easy win and cover for the 49ers. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State +1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO STATE San Diego State still has an undefeated record. The Aztecs are 7-0. Linesmakers did not believe in them last week. They were three point underdogs at Air Force but won 20-14. It was the second game in a row where the Aztecs won in low-scoring fashion while being outgained. This week they’re back at home to face Fresno State. Fresno State was lucky to beat Nevada 34-32 last week. They had to stop a two-point try on the final play. San Diego State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game. They are seventh in the country with just 15.7 points/game allowed. The Aztecs are also better on special teams so they have distinct edges in two of the three phases of the game. Watch the line as SDSU is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as a home underdog. FSU is 0-6 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more pass yards. They allowed 476 last week. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY The only game Kentucky hasn’t covered is when they were a 31-point favorite vs. a FCS team. The Wildcats hadn’t lost a game straight up until two weeks ago when they fell 30-13 at Georgia. We took them with the points there. Fresh off a bye week and looking to get back in the win column, we look for UK to get the job done here against Mississippi State. The home team in this one has lost three of five. Two losses were close while the Alabama game wasn’t. Kentucky will badly want to win Saturday night as the last time they came away with a victory in Starkville was 2008. We love this spot for Kentucky, especially if they end up closing as the favorite. That’s because Top 15 teams favored by three or less over an unranked foe are 3-0 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS the past five seasons. The Wildcats have covered six straight SEC games, which is the longest active ATS win streak in the conference. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GEORGIA Georgia has never been a favorite of 14 or more points against Florida. But this is a special Bulldogs team ranked #1 in the country. The defense is making history, giving up only 6.6 points/game. No defense allows fewer yards/game than this one. It gives up only 208.3 and is also #1 in first downs allowed for the year (just 84). They rank #2 nationally both against the run and the pass. Georgia’s seven wins have been by a combined 220 points and they’ve beaten four ranked teams, the last three all by 17 points or more. This is obviously the best team in the country right now. They have won 11 consecutive games. So we don’t want to bet against them - even if Florida is better than its overall record (4-3). The Gators lost two of three before the bye. Making matters worse for them is that Georgia certainly remembers last year’s 44-28 loss that cost them a fourth straight SEC East Title. Seven of the last eight times these rivals have played, the game has been decided by 14 points or more. This one will be no different. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 8* on MICHIGAN STATE This weekend’s only matchup of undefeated teams takes place in the state of Michigan. It’s Michigan State facing Michigan. Both teams are in the top 10 and love to run the ball. They also share 6-1 ATS records. But the game takes place in East Lansing and the Spartans are coming off a bye. They are no strangers to being underdogs in this rivalry. All seven times they’ve faced a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team, Sparty has been the dog. They’ve won three of the games straight up. We think they can do that again. They’ve really proven to be just as good - on both sides of the ball - as compared to the Wolverines. We think they have an edge at quarterback too. For Michigan, McNamara is averaging just 7.64 yards/attempt, which is 61st in the FBS. Michigan State’s Thorne averages 243 yards/game and has 15 TD passes against just four interceptions. This is usually the kind of game Michigan loses under Harbaugh. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It used to be that “Saints vs. Seahawks” meant “Drew Brees vs. Russell Wilson.” But neither of those HOF quarterbacks are starting this game. Brees is retired and under the direction of Jameis Winston, the Saints’ passing attack ranks second to last in the whole league. For Seattle, Geno Smith makes his second start in place of the injured Wilson. While also a downgrade, things may not be as bad as they seem for the Seahawks. Smith has covered the number in six straight starts going back to 2014. He kept his team in the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh. Seattle is 0-2 at home in 2021, something we are not accustomed to seeing. But home teams have had the edge on “Monday Night Football” this year, going 5-1 ATS. This will be the first time since Week 5 of the 2018 season that the Seahawks are underdogs of four or more points. They are 5-0 ATS as home dogs going back to 2011. Facing the possibility of falling to 2-5, this game is more important to the Seahawks. In a battle of two teams that aren’t as good as they used to be, we will take the points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-24-21 | Bears +13 v. Bucs | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The Bears are playing the Bucs this week, which looks like a mismatch on paper. However, this is a lot of points for the road team to be getting. Three of Tampa Bay’s wins have been by no more than six points. Another saw them return two late interceptions for touchdowns to make a deceiving final score. So we expect the Bears to at least “hang around” Sunday and keep this one respectable. Tampa Bay has a big division game on deck (at New Orleans) and could be looking past this one. There are four starters out due to injuries and all of them are big names (Gronk, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David and Richard Sherman). The Bucs defense has not exactly been very good. They’ve allowed the sixth most passing yards per game. Only one win has come against a Top 10 defense and that was a two-point victory at New England. The Bears’ defense leads the league in sacks. They beat Tampa Bay last season 20-19. Again, we expect this one to be relatively close. Grab the points. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-24-21 | Eagles v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 22-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LV Philadelphia was very lucky to cover last Thursday against Tampa Bay. They were down 28-7 in the third quarter. After scoring a TD late in the third quarter, they scored another late in the fourth, then added a 2-point conversion to get within the number. Tampa Bay drove the ball down inside the Eagles’ five yard line on the final possession, but ended up kneeling to run the clock out. Total yards in the game were 399-213 in the Buccaneers' favor. While it technically counts as a “close loss” for the Eagles, it was anything but. We don’t like their chances this week as they go into Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that is off a commanding 34-24 win over Denver last week. The Raiders are 4-2 and last week was an amazing performance when you consider all the drama caused by former coach Jon Gruden. The team is obviously willing to play hard for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. The Eagles are not well respected by the oddsmakers. They are one of only four teams that has been an underdog in every game. Their defense is 28th against the run. If not for a late comeback against Carolina two weeks ago, they’d be coming into this game on a five-game losing streak. Led by Derek Carr, look for the Raiders to move to 5-2 on the year and easily cover this short spread. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CINCY This is where we find out if the Bengals are “for real” or not. They come in with a 4-2 record. The only two losses have been by three points. They’ve also won two games by a field goal. Last week saw them record their most comfortable victory of the still-young season, winning 34-11 at Detroit. QB Burrow threw three touchdown passes in a game that was never really close. It will be a much tougher test this week in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-0 at home so far. But two of the three wins came by six points or less. They too are off a dominant win, 34-6 over the Chargers in their case. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have really had the Bengals number the last couple years. But here’s the thing. The Bengals are now much better. Their defense is up to eighth in yards given up and fifth in points allowed. Because of the expectation that this game may be pretty low scoring, we will take the points. Cincinnati has covered five of its last seven trips into Baltimore. Burrow is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE 6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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