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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY AAA |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-17-21 | Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay comes in at 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are clearly the better team in this matchup as they are averaging 33.4 points/game while only giving up an average of 24.4. The Eagles give up a similar number of points/game (24.8) but their problem is they score far fewer (23.0). We just don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to stay within a touchdown against a team like Tampa. The Eagles were down 15-3 to Carolina in the second half last week before a late rally earned them the upset win. They didn’t go ahead until less than three minutes were left in the game. The Bucs pretty much led start to finish against the Dolphins last week on their way to an eventual 45-17 win where they had no problem covering the double digit spread. We’d say the Bucs have faced two bad teams thus far - Miami and Atlanta. They won both games by 23 or more points. The Eagles are a bad team. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IND Home teams are 4-0 ATS so far on Monday Night Football. But this is kind of a big number that the Ravens are laying this week. The Colts being 1-3 shouldn’t be that surprising. They’ve been the underdog in all four games. Baltimore has been an underdog twice, so they should be celebrating a 3-1 record to this point. But two of their wins have come by a total of three points. That means they could easily be 1-3, just like the Colts, coming into tonight. Last week was Baltimore’s best performance of the year but it came against a Denver team that was down to its backup QB. Indianapolis also beat a backup QB last week for its first win. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but hasn’t really played all that badly. He’s thrown five touchdowns and only one interception. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS when favored this year and those two games saw them lose to the Raiders and barely defeat the winless Lions. It seems like they may be a little preoccupied with setting a new NFL record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards rushing. They can make it 44 straight tonight, which would be the new record. But they haven’t been that effective in running the ball the past two games. Maybe a stubbornness to run keeps this game close? Indy is 10-2 ATS the past 12 meetings with the Ravens and 6-1 here in Baltimore. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC The sky was falling in Kansas City last week. The Chiefs were 1-2 with a defense that seemingly couldn’t stop anybody. That defense remains a question mark, but the offense scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week and the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes. The team has scored 33 points in three of its four games. It’s a big test this week at home vs. Buffalo in the Sunday Night game. But keep two things in mind. One is that the Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Bills last year. The second win came in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who are obviously thinking revenge, have looked as good as any team in the league the last three weeks. But the second thing to keep in mind is just how rare it is to get Mahomes as this short of a favorite. He is 9-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than a field goal. Depending where the line closes, this could be the first time at home in his career that he’s not favored by at least three points. As impressive as the Bills have looked in those last three games, it’s been all bad teams they’ve played. We like the Chiefs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NYG Dallas is the only 4-0 ATS team. But we know all about how the Giants do when priced as road underdogs. They are 18-4 against the spread in the role since 2018. QB Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog, even though he’s won just three of those games straight up. This just has the feel of a close NFC East game. The Cowboys did cover as short favorites in each of the last two games. But they are still only 3-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season, including 2-5 at home. Each of the Giants' previous three games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their last two losses were by one and four points. We were impressed by Jones last week. He had his first 400 yard day as a pro and that was against a good Saints defense. In two road games, the Giants’ offense has averaged 28 points. That should be enough to at least cover this week. The G-men’s reputation as a road underdog speaks for itself. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA They gave the game away last week, but we cannot see Atlanta losing again. Not to a Jets team that scored more points last week than they did in the first three games combined. Maybe heading across the Atlantic Ocean is what the Falcons need right now. They are 1-3 and really in need of a win. Two weeks ago, we said the Falcons would win and they did - beating the Giants 17-14. The Jets beat Tennessee in overtime last week, but it can’t be forgotten how poorly they looked in the first three games. Atlanta should have made it two wins in a row last week, but blew a late lead to Washington at home. They allowed the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation. The Falcons should get to five wins this year. This is one of the games their fanbase had to have circled as a win. With Calvin Ridley not making the trip, expect to see a healthy dose of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. We trust Matt Ryan more than we do Jets rookie Zach Wilson. This is not a true road game, but the Jets are 2-8 ATS L10 games away from home. Favorites are 17-11 ATS in these London games. The Falcons need this one badly. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NE For the first time ever, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be on opposite sidelines. There’s one team that Brady has never beaten in his career and that’s because he played for them for 20 seasons. Now he’s a visitor at Foxboro. His Buccaneers are coming off a loss, their first since Week 12 of last season. They were 5-0 ATS off a loss in the Super Bowl winning season, but they were a road favorite in just one of those five games. It was against Carolina, not a Bill Belichick coached team. It’s not a usual occurrence to see the Patriots getting this many points at Gillette Stadium. A defense that knows Brady well will keep this game close. Rob Gronkowski, another former Patriot, will miss this game. New England, a double digit loser to New Orleans in Week 3, is 4-0 the past four times they’ve been off a 10+ point loss at home. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as a home underdog. We expect one of the most heavily hyped regular season games in years to be close. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GB Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have faced off only twice in their Hall of Fame careers. One of them was a Super Bowl, won by Rodgers’ Packers. It’s unfortunate for Big Ben that the third all-time meeting takes place at this stage of the game. A Steelers offense that is averaging only 16.7 points/game has seen all three of its top receivers get hurt in 2021. Chase Claypool has already been ruled out for Sunday. Johnson and Smith-Schuster were non-factors last week, with Johnson sitting out. Both are expected to play this week, but Big Ben is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are coming off two straight losses at home favorites. Up next is a Packers team that has won its previous two games. Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the pair of victories. Pittsburgh’s defense saw its streak of 75 straight games with a sack end last week. Their offensive struggles to protect the stationary Roethlisberger. Too many injuries for a suddenly bad Pittsburgh to overcome on the road. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1.5 v. Falcons | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Washington is one of three teams that has yet to cover a game against the spread. They lost to the Chargers as a 1.5 point favorite, beat the Giants 30-29 as four point favorites and then got blown out by the Bills. The problem has been their defense just hasn’t been as good as it was in 2020. But this week they’re up against Atlanta, a fellow 1-2 SU team whose offense ranks 29th in points and 27th in yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is averaging only 235.7 YPG, which is well off his career pace. Atlanta got its first win of 2021 last week, also by beating the Giants. That followed blowout losses to the Bucs and Eagles. We had Atlanta last week, but the Giants are easily one of the worst teams in the league. The Football Team’s front four is going to give Ryan problems all day. We think QB Heinicke has played pretty well so far for the Football Team. Well, maybe not last week, but he had a 300+ yard game against the Giants and that was better than Ryan did last week. This is a homecoming for Heinicke as he grew up in the Atlanta era. We think he’s the guy to end Washington’s six-game losing streak to Atlanta. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The winless Colts take on the 1-2 Dolphins in a matchup of disappointing teams. But Miami, even without Tua Tagovailoa, made more than a decent accounting for itself last week in Las Vegas. They took an early 14-0 lead, then forced the Raiders into overtime. While it ended up being a second straight loss for the ‘Fins, at least they left with the cash as underdogs. Miami has the best cover percentage in the NFL these last two seasons and key to that is a 6-0 ATS mark when coming off a loss. This week they return home where they’ve covered four straight times as favorites. Indianapolis is not playing well right now as last week’s nine point loss to the Titans marked the first time they weren’t down double digits in a game. We know that Miami has an injured QB and injured center, but the Colts are in worse shape with Carson Wentz playing on two injured ankles behind an offensive line that is even more banged up than what’s going on in Miami right now. This game means a lot to Dolphins QB Brissett as he is facing his former team. We don’t see how a team can go on the road with a QB dealing with two injured ankles and win. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 287 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City is the favorite to win Super Bowl 55, but perhaps you’ve heard that the sportsbooks have more “liability” on Tampa Bay winning here. Once they acquired Tom Brady, the Buccaneers were quite the popular bet to win it all. Now here they are facing last year’s SB champs. The favored team has won 35 of the previous 54 Super Bowls and are 3-1 ATS the last four (and 2-0 ATS L2). The AFC team has won and covered five of the last six. Now none of this guarantees the Chiefs will repeat. Nor does the fact Patrick Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS in his career when he’s NOT a double digit favorite. But, to us, all signs point to the Chiefs winning and covering this game. They already beat the Bucs once this season, 27-24, back on November 29th. They didn’t cover, but this spread is now lower. Also that regular season score is a little misleading. Kansas City led 17-0 after one quarter and 27-10 going into the fourth. They put up 543 yards on this Bucs defense, which now has two injured safeties coming out of the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs might only be 8-10 ATS this season, but they are 5-0 ATS when the spread is three points or less. Andy Reid is 18-9 ATS in his head coaching career when he has at least 13 days between games. Tampa Bay’s last two wins have seen them heavily rely on turnovers. The Chiefs offense averaged almost seven yards per play in the AFC Championship Game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS The old adage “it’s hard to be the same team three times in one season” is kind of a lie. Teams that swept the regular season games have gone 14-8 straight up in the playoff meeting. That’s the situation New Orleans is in here. They beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 and then 38-3 in Week 9. They are playing this game at home where they just easily defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round, 21-9. The only touchdown given up by the Saints defense came with no time left on the clock. The last three weeks have seen them allow just 212 rush yards total. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game this year. The last two games, the Saints have allowed only 16 points. This defense always does a good job of containing Tampa Bay’s best receiver Mike Evans. Though it wasn’t a banner game for the offense against the Bears, they are now fully healthy on that side of the ball and should be better this week. Don’t see the Saints losing at home. They have covered the last four times as home favorites. In games against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers have lost four of five. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -6 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -103 | 102 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH So the Browns, who could barely beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph playing QB, now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and will do so without their head coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID list). That’s problematic. Cleveland was only 6-10 ATS in the regular season, the worst ATS record among the 14 playoff teams. That includes 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents. Baker Mayfield is just 9-14 ATS on the road in his career. Not only could the Browns barely beat Rudolph and some other Steelers backups last week, they lost 38-7 here in Pittsburgh. The Browns actually gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. They got here because of a 7-2 record in one-score games and beating plenty of bad teams. It can’t be understated how big of a disadvantage not having your head coach (who happens to double as the play caller) is. The Steelers’ defense is excellent at defending play action, which is when Mayfield is at his best. There will be Browns players out for this game as well including OL Bitoni and pass rusher Vernon. The facility was closed for much of the week. They’ve lost 17 in a row at Pittsburgh. Remember the Steelers were 11-0? Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON No one thinks Washington belongs here, but that’s okay by us as we’re taking the points. The Football Team was really solid down the stretch, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. Both losses were when Alex Smith did not start. While there will be much focus on what Smith can or can’t do in light of his injury, we are very bullish on what the Washington defense WILL do. They should get after Tom Brady and everyone knows that pressure is the way to limit Brady’s success. Seven straight Washington opponents have been held to 20 points or fewer. The Bucs may not have WR Mike Evans, who is a gametime decision. While everyone will call this a “mismatch,” big road favorites in the playoffs are rare and unprofitable. There have been only three instances of the road team laying more than six points since 1970. None of those three teams covered. They actually all lost outright! Since the 1982 strike, there have been only two 7-9 teams to make the playoffs (before Washington this year). Both won on Wild Card Weekend. Not saying the Football Team wins here, but they’ll definitely make it interesting. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles met twice during the regular season and the home team won both games. Both games were also low-scoring and stayed Under. The Rams won 23-16 the first time around with Seattle returning the favor 20-9 two weeks ago here at CenturyLink Field. The big story heading into this weekend’s rubber match centers around who will be playing quarterback for the Rams. Jared Goff recently underwent thumb surgery, causing him to miss the team’s final regular season game. While the Rams still won last week, that was against a flailing Cardinals team whose own QB was injured. Whether it’s Goff or John Wolford, the Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks and they’ve scored only 71 points total the last four games. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson and while his second half numbers declined (after an amazing first half of the season), he is - by far- the better starting QB in this game. Don’t discount the improvement we’ve seen from the Seattle defense over the last eight games either. They have not given up more than 23 points to anybody in that stretch. Safety Jamal Adams, the reason for the improvement, has said he will play Saturday (his 1st playoff game). The Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games when favored including all seven with Wilson. The Rams defense allows 10 points/game more on the road than they do at home. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-03-21 | Raiders -2 v. Broncos | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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12-28-20 | Bills -7 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Drew Brees returned to the starting lineup last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the Saints from losing a second straight game by exactly a three-point margin. It would be unwise to start writing off the Saints, however. Not only is Brees back, but the last time they lost two in a row (Weeks 2 & 3), they responded with a 10-game win streak. They also aren’t facing the Chiefs this week. Instead, it’s Minnesota, who just lost at home to Chicago. The Vikings have also lost two in a row and even worse they’ve failed to cover five straight games. New Orleans is looking to clinch the division with a win and we really like their chances playing at home on Christmas Day. The Saints have feasted on losing teams, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS their L15 such games, including 6-1 and 5-2 in 2020. It was just two weeks ago we were all speaking of their defense as being the best in the league. That unit should get back on track this week. Can’t say the same for Minnesota’s defense, which is giving up 27.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Vikings have just one win against a team with a winning record all year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 113 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-20-20 | Jets +17 v. Rams | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY JETS The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 109 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -102 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALTIMORE Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -100 | 104 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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