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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Florida State. For a number of different reasons I think that FSU will put it all together today and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It hasn’t been an easy year for the Seminoles and they’ve dropped a couple places in the College Football Playoff rankings after some lackluster efforts, but I think that FSU can knock off the No. 12 Yellow Jackets today and punch its ticket to the playoffs as it tries to defend its national championship. It’s not easy to win every single game, but guess what? Florida State just completed its first back-to-back undefeated regular seasons in school history after last week’s 24-19 victory over Florida last Saturday. Beating the Yellow Jackets won’t be easy, GT has won five in a row including a 30-24 victory over Georgia in its regular season finale. The Yellow Jackets will try to confuse the Seminoles with their triple-option offense, but FSU has done pretty well against run-heavy teams in Florida, Boston College and Miami already. The only question for me is whether or not QB Jameis Winston will be ready to go today or not, and after carefully analyzing the situation, I firmly believe he will. Despite a couple of shaky efforts, note that Florida State is 3-2 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while Georgia Tech is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Missouri v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Alabama. I chose Alabama to win the SEC this year. For a number of different reasons, I think the Tide will roll today, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. With a victory Alabama will punch its ticket to the inaugural NCAAF Playoff, added incentive for the Tide after last year’s disappointing end: “I think we have an outstanding league and we have a lot of good teams and the fact that we play each other and end up beating each other probably hurts a little bit," Alabama coach Nick Saban said earlier in the week. "I think some of the teams in our division are really, really good teams and I'm sure there are some other really good teams out there that I have not seen. Without looking at everyone, I would think that somebody in our league qualifies to be one of the better four teams in the country based on the quality of the league and the good teams that we all have to play." Alabama comes in with momentum as well after beating No. 15 Auburn 55-44 last Saturday. Missouri would secure its spot in the title game with a hard-fought 21-14 victory over Arkansas last Friday. Alabama is known for its tough defensive play, but after last weeks’ shootout, there’s no question that this is a Tide team which can move the ball quickly; expect Alabama to run the no-huddle: "I think it's scary for them," Tide safety Nick Perry said. "Usually `Bama beats you with defense and running the ball. Now, we can play a whole different type of game. We can put up points or we can shut them down with defense. I think that's scary for other teams." QB Blake Sims has 2,988 passing yards and not surprisingly, the Tide rank 21st nationally in passing offense with an average of 282.6 per game. Missouri didn’t look overly impressive in its victory last weekend as it fell behind 14-3 in the second quarter and then managed to claw back with 18 unanswered points. Also note that the Tigers were destroyed 59-42 in last year’s SEC championship game vs. Auburn, a team which the Tide just handled. To walk the heavenly streets of gold, you have to know the password: Roll Tide Roll! With a chance to cement its unquestionable dominance over the SEC once again, I like ALABAMA to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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12-05-14 | Arizona v. Oregon OVER 72 | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL TOTAL on the OVER between Arizona and Oregon. For a number of different “situational” reasons, I believe this total will eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. A lot is on the line for both teams obviously and because of the overall “situation”, I definitely am expecting a shootout. Oregon needs to win to stamp its ticket to the NCAAF Playoff. It’s also looking to avenge back-to-back regular season losses to Arizona. On top of that, the Ducks’ star QB Marcus Mariota will be using this stage to try and persuade the Heisman voters one last time. The Wildcats have gotten the better of Mariota the last three seasons, intercepting his three times and forcing him to fumble three times; there’s no question that Mariota will be highly motivated today (in fact, the Wildcats destroyed the Ducks last year, winning 42-16 in Tucson). Note that Arizona comes in with some momentum after holding on for a 42-35 win over Arizona State last week. And not to be outdone, Oregon also comes in with momentum after hammering Oregon State 47-19 in the Civil War. For all of these situational reasons, I believe that the sharp move in this contest is definitely on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Northern Illinois. For a number of different reasons I believe that Northern Illinois will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and the MAC Championship title. This is a revenge game for NIU after Bowling Green took last season’s crown. Neither of these teams are the same ones from last year, but somehow each managed to navigate through the regular season to this point; note that BG finished 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference, while NIU was 10-2 overall and 7-1 in league play. Bowling Green got the job done with tough defensive play in 2013, but the unit has slipped to below average in the MAC, which I believe will spell doom today vs. this explosive Huskies offense. Also note that Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson, who threw for five TD’s in last year’s Championship game, obviously won’t be participating today after he was lost in the first outing of the year vs. Western Kentucky. Northern Illinois couldn’t get the job done last year with QB Jordan Lynch, but the Huskies have gotten progressively better on both sides of the ball as the season has worn on and I believe will prove to be just too much for the Falcons to repeat this year. Note that NIU ranks fifth in the MAC in total scoring offense and fourth in total scoring defense. The Huskies have also allowed the least sacks in the conference and have produced the third most overall; NIU is also second in third-down conversion percentage and first in turnover differential. Northern Illinois QB Drew Hare had some pretty big shoes to fill, but he’s thrown for 15 TD’s vs. a single INT has posted seven rushing major scores as well. Bowling Green made it back to the championship game by posting a 5-0 record vs. MAC East opposition, which is considered much weaker than the West (note that the Falcons were 0-3 vs. MAC West competition this season). As mentioned off the top, I think the difference will be BG’s inefficiences on the defensive end, it finished the year at the bottom of the MAC in pass defense, 10th in run defense and 12th in total defense. The Falcons’ offense is third overall in the MAC, but there’s no question that NIU can match pace with this team. Note that Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Bowling Green is just 1-2 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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11-29-14 | San Jose State +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST SIDE DESTRUCTION on San Jose State. San Diego State is 6-5 and is bowl eligible. At 3-8, the Spartans will just be playing for pride today. The last time these teams met, SDSU would have to hold on for a 34-30 victory and I firmly believe that we’ll see a similar outcome in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Spartans have lost five straight, but with QB Mitch Ravizza set to make his first collegiate start, I think the visitors come to play today; this is Ravizza’s audition for him to earn a role next year. Ravizza’s playbook should be a bit bigger this week as well and I think can catch the Aztecs off guard (note that San Jose State is actually fifth in the conference in total offense). The chances of SDSU advancing to the Mountain West championship game are pretty slim, not only does it have to win today, but it also has to hope that Hawaii upsets Fresno State. From a situational stand point, this selection is as solid as it gets. And from a trend based angle, the play gets even stronger as note that San Jose State is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while SDSU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the same points range. In my opinion, this is a few too many points to be giving up, play on SAN JOSE STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-28-14 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ESPN-TV TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Virginia and Virginia Tech. Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard of late, but for a number of different reasons I believe the conditions are right for a higher-scoring contest and look for the total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The battle for the Commonwealth Cup is always a heated one, I’m expecting each team to be at its best today: “We need to use every resource that we can use, and that’s what we’re going to do this week. We’re going to use everything we’ve got,” Virignia Tech’s offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler said earlier in the week. “We’re not going to sit here and finger-point whenever things aren’t great.” From a situational stand point, this is a great play as each team comes in with identical 5-6 records, the winner will become bowl eligible, while the loser’s season will come to a crashing halt. To say this is a “revenge” game for Virginia as well would be an understatement as it will look to end a 10-year losing skid to the Hokies this afternoon. For VT, a loss would signify it missing a bowl game for the first time in 21 years. Both of these team’s head coaches are also on the hot seat, I think that will lead to a more wide open affair as each pulls out the playbook this evening. This is obviously a strong situationally based play, but from a trend based stand point, it’s also as solid as you could possibly hope for, note that Virginia has seen the total go OVER the number in 14 of its last 25 when playing with six or less days rest, while Virginia Tech has seen it sail above the number in seven of its last 11 following a loss vs. a conference rival. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-27-14 | TCU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on TCU. No. 6 TCU is coming off a close victory against lowly Kansas before its bye week and must win and win big to impress for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The 9-1 Horned Frogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings after having to rally from a 10-point deficit vs. the Jayhawks for a 34-30 win on November 15th. So, barring a string of major upsets, TCU needs to close the regular season in dominant form to have a chance to get back into the top four (after today’s game it plays Iowa in its finale on December 6th): "Our job is to keep our nose down and to finish the journey. That's what we're trying to get accomplished," coach Gary Patterson assessed earlier in the week. TCU is also gunning for a Big 12 title, competing with Baylor and K-State and to keep its five game win skein in tact, it will have to end Texas’ three-game win streak. Texas comes in off a 28-7 win over Oklahoma State on November 15th, becoming bowl eligible under first year head coach Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have certainly looked pretty good over the last month, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, the Horned Frogs have one of the Big 12’s most dynamic offensive units, led by Trevone Boykin. In fact, TCU’s 45.9 PPG trail only Baylor’s 50.0 in the FBS, and its whopping 541.6 YPG ranks it in the Top five. Note that this also sets up as a revenge game for TCU after it had to deal with poor weather conditions, which caused a delay of almost four-hours, in a 30-7 home loss to the Longhorns back on October 26th, 2013. As good as Texas has been in November, the situational factors are clearly working in TCU’s favor; note that the Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six following a bye week. And note that Texas is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, all signs point to a blowout, play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio. The Battle of The Bricks gets ready to renew tonight, the Miami RedHawks are going to be honoring 13 seniors, but when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the Bobcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then Ohio has to be loving its chances today as it’s won seven of the last eight in the series. The ramifactions of these two teams meeting this year is not overly consequential, but at 5-6, the Bobcats still desperately need one more win to become bowl eligible for the sixth straight season. The RedHawks would love to play spoiler obviously, but I simply can’t see the team being able to handle OU’s running attack, AJ Ouellette leads Ohio with seven TD’s and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts. QB Derrius Vick is a dual threat and that spells bad news for Miami Ohio, which has struggled all season with mobile pivots. In fact, the RedHawks have gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, allowing an average of 245 rushing yards in November. Miami is a tough team at home and has a dangerous passing attack, but the situational edge still definitely lies with the visitors. From a trend based stand point, the Bobcats also get the nod; note that Ohio is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite, while Miami Ohio is just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the short points, play on the BOBCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia OVER 48 | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Miami Florida and Virginia. For a number of different reasons, I believe this total will eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Cavs started the year great, but have since receded and a bowl berth is again in doubt this season. That said, there is still hope and as coach Mike London is quick to remind everyone, the team is producing much better compared to last year in every single statistical category, including yards, points and creating turnovers. Virginia had a super tough schedule this season and has lost just one game by more than eight points. To gain bowl eligibility, Virginia must win its last two games, starting with Saturday’s home finale. Desperation breeds motivation, I always like to say, and I think the home side pulls out the playbook today. Another loss and London will likely lose his job, this is a big game for the home side for a number of different reasons. Miami will be equally motivated though and could obviously care less about London or the Cavaliers’ issues. The Hurricanes are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Florida State last week and I think will be looking to take out their frustrations today on Virginia; and like London, Miami coach Al Golden will definitley be under extreme fire if his team loses again this week. We can expect to see some points on defense as well today, these two teams are a couple of the most turn-over prone schools in the nation: the Cavs have more giveaways than anyone in the ACC this year. And that doesn’t bode well for the home side today as Miami leads the ACC in plays of 20 or more yards this season. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question this is a solid play, as note that Miami has seen the total sail above the number in four of its last seven following a loss vs. a conference rival, while Virginia has seen it go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses. The situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Colorado. I think the Buffs can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel is a healthy amount of points they’ve been afforded here. Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks are inching their way closer in reaching the College Football Playoffs, but I think come in a bit complacent as the team enjoys senior day and all the festivities and hype surrounding the event. Note that Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game and is currently ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. I’m not going to try and convince you that Colorado is a good team, obviously it’s horrible, but I do think this a prime situational play and this is way too many points to be giving up. Note that Mariota is likely going to be forced to work with a new center today as Hroniss Grasu suffered a leg injury in the Ducks’ 51-27 win at then No. 20 Utah on November 8th. Also note that Oregon will be without the services of TE Pharaoh Brown, who was injured in the Utah win as well. Colorado is unsure at this point who will get the start under center, but one man to keep your eyes on is Nelson Spruce, the WR is tied for fourth in the country with 11 TD receptions and is seventh overall with 1,091 yards. One thing we can count on today from the Buffs while they’re on offesnse is a steady dose of the run game, not only because they are averaging 172.9 yards per contest in Pac-12 contests (good enough for third in the conference), but also so as to limit Oregon’s time of possession. Note, already 4-3 ATS this year as an underdog, Colorado is also 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents. And note that Oregon is already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 31 points or more this season and just 5-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs point to COLORADO as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Louisville and Notre Dame. For a number of different reasons I expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Louisville moved into the 24th spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, while Notre Dame fell out of the AP Top 25, a victim of its own mistakes of late. Note that the Cardinals will be without their top QB, freshman Reggie Bonnafon will get the start in place of Will Gardner who sustained a season-ending knee injury in his team’s 38-19 win at Boston College on November 8th; Bonnafon was 4 of 5 for 69 yards and two TD’s after coming in late in the first half. But despite being down a big offensive piece, note that Louisville is set to welcome back two key defenisve players from injury in senior LB Lorenzo Mauldin and DL Pio Vatuvei. Notre Dame is struggling defensively of late, yielding an average of 42.2 PPG over its last five, but note that the Fighting Irish have been plagued by turnovers the past seven games, all of the sloppy play culminating in last week’s 43-40 OT loss to Northwestern last week. I think the Irish come to play this week though, last weeks effort was obviously inexcusable, but note that ND has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last seven vs. ACC opponents and in 21 of its last 31 non-conference games. And note that Louisville has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five road games this year and in 11 of its last 15 in the same position over the last two. I think the situation and the trends do indeed clearly point to the UNDER as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia OVER 57.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between K-State and WVU. Despite some inclement weather forecast, I think these teams will combine to eclipse the posted total as the game comes down the stretch. It’s a big game for both teams obviously, it’s Senior night for the Moutaineers. This game features a couple of the nation’s best receivers going head to head: WVU’s Kevin White is the league’s most productive receiver, while K-State’s Tyler Lockett continues to amaze, once again dominating last time out despite the Wildcats suffering their first Big 12 loss. Lockett had 11-catches for 196 yards in a 41-20 loss to TCU on November 8th. Lockett has owned the Wildcats the last two season’s as well, accumulating 17 receptions for 305 yards and five TD’s the last two years. White was held in check by Kansas State last year, but he’s emerged as one of the countries best this season, he’s averaging 120.7 YPG, which ranks third overall and first in the conference. Both team’s QB’s can air it out as well, K-State’s Jake Waters was 10 of 13 for 198 yards and three TD’s vs. the Mountaineers last year. His counterpart today, Clint Trickett, is sixth overall in the nation and first in the Big 12 with 3,173 passing yards. And defensively the Wildcats definitely took a step back last week, they would surrender a massive 334 rushing yards to TCU (note that WVU is fourth in conference in averaging 184.2 YPG on the ground). Both teams highly motivated for different reasons, I think the writing is on the wall, all signs point to a shootout in my opinion, play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-19-14 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 54.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U ART OF WAR on the OVER between Bowling Green and Toledo. Players are injured for both sides and snow is in the forecast, but regardless, I feel that all signs point to this one eclipsing the total as the game comes down stretch. Bowling Green will certainly be motivated here, it has its sights set on the MAC East title and the Falcons actually control their own destiney following a 30-20 win over Kent State last time out. BGSU dominated across the board with a 527-328 yardage edge, while also winning the turnover battle 5-2. The Falcons are a balanced offense, last week Andre Givens racked up 157 yards and two TD’s. QB James Knapke was equally as effecient, 22-37 for 315 yards, including an 82 yard TD. Toledo will be equally as motivated today, it had an opportunity to take over the MAC West top spot but fell 27-24 to Northern Illinois in Week 12. A tough setback for sure as the Rockets won the yardage battle, 472 to 416. Toledo had its chances, but failed to convert on too many short third down conversions. From a trend based stand point, note that this is a very solid play, Bowling Green has seen the total go OVER the number in three of five road games this year, while Toledo has seen it sail above the number in four of its five home games this season. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Akron. This is a must-win game for Akron as it stil has bowl hopes, it’s coming off four straight SU losses and six straight ATS setbacks. Suffice it to say, I think the Zips take care of business at home tonight. Conversely, Massachusetts will not be going to a bowl game unless it sweeps out and gets some help, and while it’s won three of its last four SU, it’s been a covering machine all year, it comes into this contest having covered six-straight games. While Akron would secure the 14-13 win over UMass last season, it failed to cover the 7 point spread and this fact makes today’s play even stronger in my opinion. For the most part I am a situational handicapper, but one of the other main factors that I like to take advantage of are lop-sided trends and numbers and in this case, there’s no question that all signs point to Akron has the savvy move here. And from a trend based stand point, this play is super strong as well, not that Massachusetts is 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while Akron is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses. As I’ve mentioned many times already, I think this is a great situational play on AKRON. AAA Sports |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC SUPER-BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech. Duke is 8-1 overall and 4-1 in league play, while Virginia Tech is 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference action. While the Hokies will not be competing for the conference crown, they are still bowl hopeful, meaning that every game from this point on is almost a must win and it’s because of this fact that I think they’ll keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think this will be a one possession game in the end, this sets up perfectly as a letdown spot for Duke I think. This is the opener of a three-game home stand for the Blue Devils vs. teams that are a combined 10-17 right now. "They're for real," Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said yesterday. "Certainly for real." But as I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and this also sets up as a revenge game for the Hokies after Duke came into Lane Stadium to win 13-10 last year. I also think that Duke gets caught looking ahead to rival North Carolina on Thursday night, which will end the run of three games in a 13-day span for the home side. The visitors have something to build off, VT would outscore BC 21-10 in the final frame on November 1st, but it would not be enough in the 33-31 finale (you’ll remember that I had the OVER in that contest). Note that the Hokies have not dropped four straight in the ACC since joining the confernece in 2004 and have never lost five ACC games in a single season: “I hate losing," VT senior wide receiver Willie Byrn said earlier in the week. "The way it will be salvaged is if we learn something from it. I hate hearing people saying we're going to be great next year. The seniors put so much work into it." And note that Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think the conditions are definitely right for the HOKIES to escape with at least an ATS cover today. AAA Sports |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -1 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on East Carolina. I played this game the moment it came out and got a favorable -1 line, it’s climbed since then, however I still love it. East Carolina will look to move back atop the AAC on Friday after its five-game winning streak was snapped to Temple on November 1st, losing five fumbles and committing 12 penalties in a sloppy, windy and rainy 20-10 road setback. It was a freak loss, if we dig a little deeper we see that there is some definite room to read between the lines as the Pirates would outgain the Owls by 293 yards and collect 30 first downs compared to Temple’s 10. Cincinnati on the other hand would trash Tulane 38-14 on October 31st and has three straight wins of at least 17 points (note though that it’s come over teams in the bottom half of the conference). Ultimately though, I think after their last debacle that the Pirates come to play today, QB Shane Carden was held to a season-low 217 yards and was held without a TD throw for the first time since last year’s regular-season finale. For the home side, starting QB Gunner Kiel is still injured, meaning that Munchie Legaux will earn another start today. Legaux likes to get out of the pocket and run when he can, but note that East Carolina ranks eighth in the FBS in run defense and has held its last six opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Note that East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons off a loss vs. a conference foe, while Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing the role of underdog. I look for Carden and company to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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11-11-14 | Toledo +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Toledo. These teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it’s going to come down to a one score outcome and therefore definitely feel that the value lies in grabbing the points. Toledo is bowl eligible at 6-3 but will look to keep the momentum rolling, seeking a third straight victory today. While the Rockets have been winning, note they haven’t been covering; suffice it to say, I think that changes this week. Toledo is coming off a 7 point win over Massachusetts and a 10 point victory over Kent State. NIU is 7-2 and has won three-straight. The Huskies employ a run-first offense, Cameron Stingily has 625 yards on the ground with eight TD’s. QB Drew Hare can also get out of the pocket. NIU is one dimensional on offense, while Toledo is much more balanced, the team averages 250 on the ground and another 250 through the air, averaging a whopping 34 PPG. The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside who has 1,700 yards and 14 major score. Toledo has faced some incredibily stiff competition out of conference, which makes them that much more dangerous in MAC play in my opinion. From a trend based stand point, this is definitely a solid play, note that Toledo is 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Northern Illinois is already 1-2 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival. Obviously I feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can with TOLEDO. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 49-37 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 35 m | Show |
This is a BIG 10 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between Ohio State and Michigan State. It’s a battle of the heavy weights, each of these teams is pretty adept on the offensive side of the field, but for a number of different reasons I believe this will become a “chess match” style of contest, where field position is paramount in deciding the game, in my opinion, all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one. The seventh-ranked Spartans host the 13th-ranked Buckeyes with the winner having the inside track on the East Division title. Everyone is expecting a high-scoring shootout, and why not? Ohio State is fourth in the country in scoring with an average of 45.6 points, while Michigan State is fifth at 45.5. However, despite the higher-scoring affairs, note that each has shown a tendency to produce an UNDER in this position: OSU has seen the total go UNDER the number in both games that it’s played as an underdog the last two seasons, while MSU has seen it dip below the posted number in its last four as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range and in 11 of its last 18 vs. teams with winning records. I am a situational handicapper at heart, I also like to take advantage of lop-sided numbers or trends and for me, for the most part, who is on the field, on the ice or on the court almost rarely matters in my selection proccess, but this play is just screaming value on the UNDER. With the eyes of the nation on these two teams, I look for each to come out a bit flat-footed and for this total to stay UNDER the number. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern -1 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -106 | 139 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Northwestern. Both teams come in struggling, they have a combined seven total wins and four Big Ten victories. Each is still bowl eligible though and I think the home side comes to play today. While Michigan has won two if its last three, note that both of those victories came at home against weak opponents. The home side definitely comes in desperate, it’s off three straight losses, including a 41-point blowout defeat at Iowa last weekend. Michigan actually has a decent defense, but Northwestern’s offense will benefit greatly today in playing in front of the home town crowd, a place where it’s played well at times this year. Neither of these teams is very good, in fact, they are very evenly matched, but from a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid selection; note that Michigan is already 1-2 ATS on the road this year and 5-8 ATS in the same position over the last two; and note that Northwestern is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 vs. conference opponents. All signs point to a one possession game with NORTHWESTERN coming out on top. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 44 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 90 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Tulane and Houston. These teams don’t normally play to many high-scoring affairs, but I feel that the conditions are right for a shootout and expect this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Tulane is coming off a 38-14 loss to Cincinnati last week; the Bearcats would win the yardage battle 479-380. The Green Wave was led by Dontreal Hilliard, who had 123 yards on eleven carries, while QB Tanner Lee was 24 of 35 for 205 yards and a ten yard TD to Charles Jones. It was actually a big performance for the unit and I think it will be able to build off it. As the season has worn on, the Cougars have gotten better, they’re coming in off their third win in a row, a dominating 27-3 performance over USF on the road. Houston took advantage of the Bulls anemic unit and piled up 306 yards of their own, Greg Ward Jr. was an effecient 15 of 19 for 89 yards with an eight yard TD pass to Kenneth Farrow. From a situational trend based stand point, this number is definitely too low in my opinion; note that Tulane has seen the total go OVER the number in four of seven this season when playing the role of underdog, while Houston has seen it sail above the number in six of its last ten off a win vs. a division rival. In my opinion, all signs point to the OVER as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS SUPER BLOWOUT on UTSA. While I won’t call for an outright win here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and look for the Roadrunners to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the red hot Rice Owls have a letdown here, just enough of one for the hungry Roadrunners to take advantage of. UTSA is coming off an embarrassing 34-0 setback at home to UTEP. After three straight losses, Rice has now won five straight, most recently a 31-17 decision on the road against FIU. Desperation breeds motivation though and this also sets up as a revenge game after Rice beat UTSA 27-21 in San Antonio last year. I won’t try to convince you that the Roadrunners are a good team, obviously they aren’t, offensively they’ve been a train wreck of late, but I simply feel this is a great situational play. Defensively though UTSA has been stellar, it’s fourth in the conference in total yards and scoring offense (and that is despite losing 34-0 to UTEP last week, still managing to hold the Miners to 351 yards of total offense). And the Owls aren’t one of the best offensive teams in the conference, they average 31.4 PPG, ranking sixth. Defensively the Owls are sound, ranked fifth in the league, but as I said, I think the conditions are right for a mental lapse this weekend; note that UTSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 points range, while Rice is 0-1 ATS as a home fave in the same price range. Grab as many point as you can in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-06-14 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 43 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U ART OF WAR on the OVER between Clemson and Wake Forest. These two teams don’t normally play to a lot of high scoring affairs, but I feel that the conditions are finally right for a shootout and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Tigers are looking for a sixth straigh win and if history is any precedence, they have to be liking their chances against a team that they’ve dominated of late. DeShaun Watson could be available for this game, he’s been cleared to go, but even without its star QB under center Clemson has continued to roll with Cole Stoudt in back to back wins. Granted, Stoudt is no Watson, but regardless of who plays today, I really like the Tigers to come in and take advantage of this suspect Wake secondary. The Demon Deacons have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball all year, but come in with a bit of momentum, after being down 17-0 at halftime vs. Boston College on October 25th, their late rally would come up short in the eventual 23-17 setback: “We're learning some painful lessons," first-year coach Dave Clawson assessed afterwards. "We've got a lot of things to clean up. We're early in this process and if we can establish effort as a starting point then we are headed in the right direction." A bright spot in the setback two weeks ago was freshman QB John Wolford who was 22 of 30 for 242 yards. Note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 12 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Wake Forest has seen it sail above the number in four of its last seven as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. This number is just a little low, play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State. What’s happened to the Cowboys? Oklahoma State opened the year at No. 15 and has since fallen to an unranked position in the polls after back to back losses. K-State comes into this contest as No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. So can OK State rally here, find a way to get the job done and pull off the upset?! I’m not going to go out on a limb and call for the outright upset here, but I do definitely feel that the Cowboys will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I jumped on the line when it first came out at +14, it’s since dropped, but I still do love this selection. The Cowboys have obviously been struggling, but I think there is room to read between the lines; note that OK State’s defense has in fact been better than anticipated. Creating turnovers, something the team excelled at last year in forcing 2.5 per contest, will be crucial for the visitors to keep this one close. If the Cowboys can force two or three, I feel they do in fact have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, K-State QB Jake Waters is on a big roll right now. But, the Cowboys have some weapons of their own, receiver James Washington is a game-changer. From a motivational standpoint, this is definitely a big game for OK State; obviously an outright victory would be a huge mental boost for the university, but it would also mean that the team would be come bowl eligible with games vs. Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma remaining. I also believe that this sets up as a bit of a “lookahead” spot for the home side, the team is already bowl eligible and still has to play three ranked teams, ALL of which are on the road. Note Okahoma State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two years as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while K-State is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points ranges. Grab as many points as you can, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the COWBOYS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Florida +13 v. Georgia | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida. I think the Gators keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge scenario, the Bulldogs have won three straight in the series after last year’s 23-20 victory. The Bulldogs will be without the services of RB Todd Gurley of course, it hasn’t mattered of late though as Georgia has rallied for back-to-back victories behind an opportunistic defense. The Gators are reeling, but I think come to play here today, Florida coach Will Muschamp’s job is on the line and desperation often brings out the best in teams and that will be the case today I feel. “It’s a critical game,” Muschamp said earlier in the week. “It’s an East rival. It’s an SEC rival. It’s a rival of the University of Florida. And it’s very important to our university.” The Gators will have to deal with Bulldogs’ QB Hutson Mason, who has been effecient this year with 10 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Nick Chubb has filled in decently for Gurley, averaging 172.5 yards per game in two starts in replacement. The visitors of course will be going with QB Treon Harris, in three career games he’s 12 of 18 for 263 yards and three TD’s with one INT. Harris will be looking early and often to WR Demarcus Robinson who has a team-high 34 catches, 524 receiving yards and four TDs. One other Gators’ player to keep your eyes on today is DE Alex McCalister, who has five tackles for a loss and a team-high four sacks. Note that Florida is 3-2 the last two seasons following a bye week, while Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Purdue v. Nebraska UNDER 61.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Purdue and Nebraska. When the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect this total to sneak below the posted number. 3-5 Purdue is taking on No. 17 Nebraska today; the Cornhuskers are a considerable favorite. A victory today would put Nebraska in first place of the Big Ten West with big games coming up against Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. The Boilermakers I think will have their hands full today, despite how good QB Austin Appleby has been of late. Purdue will once again be leaning heavily on its run game as RBs Raheem Mostert and Akeem Hunt both average better than 6 yards a carry and were both on the field together vs. Minnesota last week, combining for 213 of the Boilermakers’ 294 rushing yards. Both of those guys will be wary of Nebraska LB Zaire Anderson who leads the Huskers in tackles and tackles for a loss. Nebraska too though will have a run first mentality today, RB Ameer Abudullah has scored two or more rushing TD’s in five straight games. Note that Purdue has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Nebraska has seen the total dip below the number in its last two vs. teams with losing records. It’s true that Purdue has been on a roll offensively of late, but I think that ends today vs. the ever improving Nebraska secondary. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech OVER 42 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION on the OVER between Boston College and Virginia Tech. Neither of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for the total to sail above this tiny number. I played this game immediately and got 42, it’s since dropped, but regardless I still really like it. Virginia Tech will be sticking with QB Michael Brewer who was just 13 for 20 in the Miami game for only 80 yards; Brewer has struggled a bit of late, but he hasn’t thrown a pick in his last two games. There’s no question the team will be looking to get the offensive unit back on track, expect receivers Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips to get more involved as BC is pretty stout against the run. The Eagles though has been susceptible against the pass, giving up 208.4 YPG through the air (Clemson threw for 285 yards and Wake Forest threw for 242 in the last two games). Note that VT though looked much better in the scond half vs. Miami in rushing for 133 yards, Marshawn Williams led the charge with 100. Boston College likes to run the ball as well, its 134.4 passing YPG ranks near the bottom of the league, but mostly that’s because BC will pick its spots with QB Tyler Murphy; note that Murphy has thrown for 1,034 yards and six TDs. I think Murphy is in line for a break out game today as the Hokies really struggled with getting any pressure on Miami last week. But as mentioned, BC will be running today, led by Andrew Williams who topped the 2,000 yard mark last year. Murphy also has 843 yards and 8 rushing TD’s so far; Jon Hilliman has 572 yards and 9 TD’s. And that’s bad news for the Hokies today as they are coming off their worst rushing defensive effort in years, giving up 364 rushing yards to Miami. Despite the weather reports, I think these teams post at least 3 TD’s a piece today: note that BC has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six off a win vs. a division rival, while VT has seen it eclipse the number in its last five straight after two or more consecutive SU wins. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 56 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U ASSASSIN on the OVER between Cincinnati and Tulane. These teams have played to some fairly low-scoring games of late, but I feel that the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring shootout and believe that the savvy move in this one is on the OVER. Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel suffered a rib injury in his last start which allowed backup Munchie Legaux to help his team snap a losing streak and I think the Bearcats carry that momentum over here. No need to worry though if your a Cincinnati backer today, Kiel is expected to be under center after his team pulled away for the 34-17 victory over USF last Friday (I had the Bearcats in that one). After dropping three straight, Cincinnati has outscored SMU and South Florida by a combined 55 points and will be extra motivated here as it’s just 3-11 all time vs. Tulane. The Green Wave will be focused on the task at hand, they haven’t played since October 18th and they’ll also be highly motivated to return to their winning ways after getting stopped on fourth down on two potential game-tying drives in the fourth quarter in a 20-13 loss at Central Florida. Tulane has been getting the job done with a stiff defensive unit, but I think will have its hands full today with Cincinnati’s 12th-ranked passing offense; note though that the Bearcats run game also got untracked last week as freshman Mike Boone ran 19 times for 212 yards and a TD last week. In fact, Cincinnati has rushed for at least 240 yards in each of its last two wins after failing to run for more than 100 in every one of its four previous contests. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Tulane has seen it eclipse the number in both games that it’s played the last two years as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range; the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -5.5 v. Louisville | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. I played the game early and got -5.5. It’s since come down to -3.5. Regardless, I still really love this play and look for FSU to punch one into the ATS win column tonight. It appears as if RB Karlos Williams will be available for this game, which is good news for the No. 2 Seminoles as they get ready to face the nation’s best defense. Williams leads the Seminoles with 82 carries, 378 rushing yards and seven TDs and he’s still 100% eligible to play in this one. So will this be a distraction for FSU? Hardly in my opinion. This program is used to this type of thing now after Jameis Winston’s issues last year, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has had multiple off-field issues, this team isn’t going to be phased whatsoever. In fact, I think it will be a rallying point this week and think Winston could have one of his most productive contests of the year so far. Louisville is a stout defense, it leads the nation in giving up just 245.8 YPG, but I think will have its hands full with Winston and company. FSU is playing for the first time since its thrilling 31-27 win over then No. 5 Notre Dame on October 18th. "We don't have anything to prove to anybody," said Winston, who is third in the country in completion percentage at 70.6. "We've just got to keep playing and hopefully things will go our way. But one thing we are consistently proving is that we are winners." Louisville has some talent on offense as well in WR DeVante Parker and RB Michael Dyer, but I think they’ll falter today against what I think is an underrated Seminoles defensive unit. I’m laying the points on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-25-14 | UNLV v. Utah State OVER 51 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U SUPER-BLOWOUT on the OVER between UNLV and Utah State. NOTE: Hi guys, AAA Sports here. Today my writeups are going to be brief, I am traveling and have been delayed twice already. My window of opportunity to get my analysis written properly today went from 8 hours, down to 1. Sorry about that. You can expect to see my usual Award Winning write-ups on Sunday and the rest of the week and year as normal. Thanks for understanding today. Utah State has won six straight home games and 15 of its last 17 overall, that includes winning nine of its last ten conference games in front of the home town crowd. USU is 4-3 overall and 1-1 in league play, it’s most recently coming off a listless 16-13 road loss at Colorado State last weekend. QB Darell Garretson is 91 of 135 passing for 1,140 yards with eight TD’s to just three INT’s. RB Joe Hill leas the way with 232 yards on 59 carries and two TDs. As a team, USU is averaging 25.6 PPG and 368.6 yards of total offense. UNLV is 2-5 on the year and just 1-2 in Mountain West play, most recently it’s coming off a 30-27 OT loss at home to Fresno State two weekends ago. The Rebels are led by QB Blake Decker who has 1,632 passing yards, six TD’s and 10 INT’s. While both teams have played to quite a few UNDERS this year, note that UNLV has seen the total eclipse the number in six of its last ten as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while USU has seen it sail above the number in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 points. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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10-25-14 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 40 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 93 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Boston College and Wake Forest. NOTE: Hi guys, AAA Sports here. Today my writeups are going to be brief, I am traveling and have been delayed twice already. My window of opportunity to get my analysis written properly today went from 8 hours, down to 1. Sorry about that. You can expect to see my usual Award Winning write-ups on Sunday and the rest of the week and year as normal. Thanks for understanding today. The Demon Deacons are just 2-5 and coming off a brutal 30-7 loss to Syracuse. The Eagles are 4-3 and are also coming off a listless 17-13 loss to Clemson. While neither team has been lighting up the board of late, I feel that the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring shootout. The Eagles are led by QB Tyler Murphy, who has struggled through the air this year, but who is averaging 7.7 YPC this year. Murhpy and the Boston College offense definitely catch a break here in facing the weak Wake Forest defense. In fact, BC is 25th Nationally in rushing, four tailbacks average at least 4 YPC. Wake Forest has struggled offensively this year, but note that it’s seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Also note that BC has seen the total eclipse the number in six of its last eight vs. teams with losing records. I think the home side keeps this one competitive and look for this total to go OVER the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati. Neither of these teams are that good, but I think the home side’s passing offense will prove to be too much for the Bulls in the end and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. USF is 3-4, Cincinnati is 3-3. The Bulls are 2-1 in conference while the Bearcarts are 1-1 in league play. This is a “revenge” game as well for Cinncy though as USF pulled off the 26-20 upset last year. USF is coming off a 38-30 road win over Tulsa last week, it was a huge come from behind effort as it trailed 24-7 at halftime. The Bearcats are coming off a 41-3 road win over SMU last week, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. Offensively the Bulls are averageing just 311 yards per game, QB Mike White has completed only 47.6% of his passes for six TD’s and five INT’s. RB Marlon Mack is the focus of the offense, he has 727 yards and eight major scores so far. Note that four defensive players are questionable or out for the Bulls though. And that’s bad news for the visitors I think today; while Cincinnati’s defense is poor, it’s offense is ranked #38 in scoring. QB Gunner Kiel has completed almost 60% of his passes so far for 19 major scores and 6 INT’s. From a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid play as well, note that the Bearcats are 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. teams with losing records. I think this one turns into a track meet and the pass-happy home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night; play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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10-18-14 | Washington v. Oregon OVER 66.5 | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Washington and Oregon. I jumped on this total the moment it came out and have 66.5; it’s since dropped, but regardless, I love this play and expect these two conference opponents to battle it out down to the wire and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Ducks are heavily favored here and after their first loss of the year, they’d follow it up with an impressive win in a difficult environment last weekend. Oregon opened the year with four straight wins by averaging 48.5 PPG before then falling 31-24 to Arizona on October 2nd. However, the Ducks got untracked in last weeks 42-30 victory over then No. 18 UCLA last Saturday, QB Marcus Mariota threw for 210 yards and ran for 75 while totaling four TD’s; RB Royce Freeman contributed a season-high 121 rushing yards and two TD’s. Mariota owns the highest passer rating in the FBS at 193.7, he has 17 TD’s and zero INT’s thus far. The last time these teams met, Oregon won 45-24 last October 12th, Mariota finished 24 of 31 for 366 yards and three TD’s, while also running for 88 and another score on the ground. Washington won’t go down without a fight though, it’s 5-1 to open the season, it’s only loss coming 20-13 to then No. 16 Stanford on September 27th; the Huskies were then off the following week and then bounced back with a 31-7 win at California last Saturday. Huskies’ QB Clyer Miles threw for a season-high 273 yards and three TD’s, giving him nine major scores and no INT’s in his last five games. While Washignton has yet to see the total go OVER the number this year, note that it’s seen it sail above in six of its last ten following a win over a conference rival, while Oregon has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight home games when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points. Play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina. I think UNC can catch Notre Dame a bit complacent here and like it to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Irish come into this game at 5-0 SU. UNC is just 2-3 and will have to start winning some games in a hurry if it has any shot at becoming bowl eligible. Long time clients and followers know that I am primarily a situational handicapper, but that I also like to exploit lop-sided trends and numbers, expecting these anomolies to “naturally correct” themselves. Therefore, it’s important to note that UNC is 0-5 ATS to open the year, while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS. UNC’s biggest issue has clearly been on the defensive side, but it catches a break here as the Fighting Irish are far from offensive juggernauts. UNC can put some points on the board, it will need to bring it’s “A” game today though vs. the stingy home side’s defensive unit. This also sets up as a classic “look ahead/letdown” spot for the Irish, who won’t be able to help themselves in thinking about next week’s matchup with top-ranked Florida State; this is definitely a crucial situational factor working on our side today as well. I think UNC does keep this one close, its dual-threat QB Marquise Williams will be a difference maker and while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do clearly believe this is way too many points to be giving up; play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-11-14 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 42 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER between Minnesota and Northwestern. Northwestern comes into this Big Ten matchup as the only 2-0 team in league play and will look to carry that positive momentum and confidence into another victory at Minnesota today. Easier said than done obviously, but the Wildcats have a legitimate shot at moving to their first 3-0 start to a Big Ten campaign since 2000. The Golden Gophers clearly have some plans of their own as a victory would give them a stellar 5-1 start to the year and a 2-0 record to start conference play. The Wildcats have been getting the job done with stout defensive play so far, they rank third in the league and No. 14 nationall in scoring defense. However, after holding Nebraska to 25 points below its season scoring average, I think Northwestern has a letdown here; remember, through five games last year the Wildcats were allowing 27 points per outing. Minnesota has to be feeling pretty confident too, it’s beaten Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State. Offensively the Wildcats have an opportunity to score some point as Minnesota has given up an average of 19 PPG thus far. Offensively for the home side, expect to see Mitch Leidner push the pace today, he’s played 14 games for the Maroon and Gold and gone 10-4, rushing for 10 TD’s, while passing for 1,148 yards and six TD’s. This can still be a “chess match” style of contest and go OVER the number, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting to happen. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -103 | 135 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh. Virginia has covered the spread in every game so far this year but I think will finally come up short here vs. the hungry visiting side; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. The Cavaliers are in position to make an early claim as division front-runners after an earlier upset of Louisville and close setbacks to No. 1 UCLA and No. 18 BYU. Virginia is 3-2 SU, including 1-0 in the ACC. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and 1-0 as well. But this sets up as a natural letdown/look ahead spot for Virginia with its bye week on the horizon. Pittsburgh is surely the “hungrier” team as well, it’s coming off back to back loss to Iowa and Akron which dampened its 3-0 start. Note that Virginia is hosting its first “night game” since 2012 here; also note that Pittsburgh beat Virgina 14-3 last season. I simply feel that the opportunistic Cavs defense will finally have its hands full today with Pitt RB James Conner; Conner is second in the nation with 791 rushing yards and leads the country with 135 carries. Another big question mark for Virginia is at QB; note, as of writing the team still has Greyson Lambert listed as questionable because of an ankle injury he suffered vs. BYU two weeks ago. Lambert wasn’t used in last week’s victory against Kent State, as sophomore Matt Johns stepped in and did an adequate job (finished 17 of 28 for 227 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s); in my opinion though, “adequate” won’t cut it today vs. Pittsburgh and if Lambert is able to go, I believe his injury will render him far less than 100%. I’m playing PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Kent State +24.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Kent State. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Northern Illinois and like the winless Golden Flashes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe. The Huskies return home after a long three game road trip and a bye week. Kent State is is 0-4 and will definitely be the “hungrier” team in this matchup. NIU was embarressed in its last game as well as Arkansas hammered it 52-14. Kent State’s run game is a weak point on offense, meaning it will have to throw the ball today to have any shot at the outright upset. That actually works in our favor, NIU is pretty good against the rush in allowing just 114 YPG. That means we can expect to see a lot of redshirt sophomore QB Colin Reardon who admittedly has been pretty mediocre to this point; Reardon will need some big plays from his receivers, namely James Brooks; Brooks and company have a big opportunity today though as NIU’s weakness on defense is definitely in the secondary, a unit which has already been beaten deep on several occasions this year. Kent State will have to run every now and then to keep the defense honest, look for Reardon to throw the ball to RB Nick Holley on some screens and dump offs. The Huskies definitely looked bad two weeks ago, QB Drew Hare was constantly under pressure and while he did finish with a decent QB rating, he failed to make any big or significant plays when they were needed. However, the entire team looked out of sorts. The Huskies will try to establish the run early and often, but the Golden Flashes are actually pretty good in stopping it. I’m not calling for the outright win today, but this is way too many points to be giving up in my opinion; all signs point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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10-03-14 | San Diego State v. Fresno State OVER 56.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -106 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between SDSU and Fresno State. The 2-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to take on the 2-3 Fresno State Bulldogs in Mountain West action on Friday night, I believe the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Both teams are coming off wins and I think will be able to move the ball on each other today as well. SDSU had lost two straight before beating UNLV 34-17 last week. Frenso State opened the season horribly, but has since won two straight, including a 35-24 win over New Mexico as a 6 point underdog last time out. The Bulldogs would rack up a whopping 600 yards in the victory. Both of these teams have a lot on the line here, they were both predicted to finish first and second in the MW West division, so this is an important contest for both as it will go a far way in deciding who will play in the conference championship game. SDSU is going to be forced to use freshmen QB Nick Bawden as senior Quinn Kaehler is now sidelined with a shoulder injury; note though, this isn’t a bad thing, Bawden has a cannon for an arm and greater mobility, the Aztecs will present a problem for the Bulldogs with what should be a much more prolific passing game. SDSU also possesses a very strong run game with Pumphrey, and Chase Price. And that’s bad news for Fresno State backers today, the Bulldogs have allowed over 231 rushing yards per game. QB Brian Burrell has had some pretty big shoes to fill after Derek Carr left, but after a shaky opener he’s looked much better in back to back victories, he’ll once again be leaning heavily on his run game to keep the Aztec defense honest. Note that SDSU has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 17 vs. conference opponents, while Fresno State has seen it go above the number in seven of its last 12 in front of the home town crowd. I feel that the situation, the trends and the numbers all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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10-02-14 | Central Florida v. Houston OVER 50 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between UCF and Houston. For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. UCF actually ranks 117th out of 125 FBS teams in yards per contest as it had to introduce a first year starter at QB; however, UFC is going to have to find a way to get into the end zone tonight as Houston is a juggernaut on that side of the ball, averaging 31.5 PPG; the Cougars would rack up 399 yards at UNLV in their last game. Houston gets the job done with a very well balanced attack, a pair of WR’s have more than 220 yards in the first four games, while two RB’s have totaled at least 196 yards in the same time frame. That means that UCF QB Justin Holman will need to match pace, he’s completed 60.7 percent of his passes so far, his ground game has yet to get going though as the Knights average just 2.6 yards per carry. Central Florida will also have to be wary here as Houston plays with revenge after last season’s 19-14 setback. This is a sound play from a trend based angle as well, both teams exihibt many OVER tendencies in this spot; note that UCF has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five road games where the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 and in six of its last seven games played in the month of October. And note that Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of its last four following a bye-week. Both team’s have had a week off to focus and prepare, in my opinion the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Kent State +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -106 | 134 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Kent State. Virginia may be off a loss to BYU, but the team has covered each week so far this season and suffice it to say, I believe that streak ends today. I think this sets up as a natural letdown sport for the home side as lowly Kent State comes to town for its final non-conference tilt. The ACC schedule is one littered with much stronger competition, I simply can’t see the Cavaliers not looking ahead this week. When this line opened, I jumped on it at 21.5. It’s since gone closer to 27. Regardless, I still really like this pick and think the Flashes can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded here. MAC teams have a history of giving Virginia difficulty, you only have to go back to last year when it lost 48-27 to Ball State in Charlottesville as an example. Kent State will be looking to bounce back after two home losses and then an embarrasing 66-0 loss at Ohio State. Offensively the Golden Flashes haven’t been spectacular, but certainly not horrible either, Colin Reardon has 553 yards and five TDs. Defensively the teams runs a 4-2-5, Cover 4 scheme which is led by athletic safety Nate Holley, who is top in the MAC with 13.7 tackles per game. Viriginia’s offense has been pretty good, the rotation of QB’s Greyson Lambert and Matt Johns has been pretty effective; defensively though the Cavs sure looked susceptible last week, they did not register a sack or create a turnover vs. BYU. I think this is a great spot for Kent State to come in under the radar, after the beat down by the Buckeyes, the team had last weekend off to focus and prepare: "Virginia is a very talented football team," said Coach Paul Haynes. "They’ve had a very tough schedule, playing 3 out of 4 ranked opponents and playing them well. So we’ll have a huge challenge this week, but our guys have a great attitude, we went back to a good worth ethic and our guys are looking forward to an ACC opponent." Note that Kent State is in fact 10-5 ATS its last 15 on the road, while Virginia is just 2-7 ATS its last nine as a favorite and a sub-par 7-11 ATS its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 69.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between Arkansas and Texas A&M. This total has climbed from 68 to 72 (I personally have 69.5), regardless, while these are two very capable offenses, I feel that the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “chess match” style of contest. Texas A&M and Kenny Hill have actually started their highest-scoring four-game stretch in school history and are 4-0 for the first time since 2006. I’m not reading too much into the Aggies performance yet though, the schools they’ve played have all been sub-par competition including last week’s 58-6 victory over SMU. These teams will play this contest at Dallas Cowboys’ NFL Stadium, which I always feel is a detriment to both sides, as the unfamilar surroundings and extra media attention can’t help but distract these young and impressionable players. It’s hard to imagine A&M not get caught looking ahead here as well, after the Razorbacks the team plays No. 14 Mississippi State, No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 3 Alabama, all SEC West teams which are undefeated at the moment. A nationally televised game in the monster stadium, super important contest on the horizon and over achieving to this point? There’s no question in my mind that the Aggies are going to be thinking about other things than just the game today. Defensively the Aggies have also impressed, they had eight sacks last week and didn’t allow a first down unitl midway through the second quarter: ‘It really started with the defense. The defense came out and played lights out,'' confirmed Hill afterwards. Arkansas is 3-1 and has three blowout wins of its own as well so far under second-year coach Bret Bielema, which included last week’s 52-14 victory over Northern Illinois. The Razorbacks though haven’t won an SEC game since 2012: We've made progress; we've done certain things better,'' Bielema said earlier in the week. ''I think, without a doubt, our guys have a lot more confidence than they maybe had a year ago. But until you've done it on a big stage and against a quality opponent like we're going to see Saturday, it's really just talk.'' So while the Arkansas offense has flourished so far this year, for the most part it’s also played very weak competition and suddenly it’s going to have to face a pretty decent defensive unit this week, all signs point to a letdown for the Razorbacks as well. This is a situationally based play, in my opinion, all signs point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | Top | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Northwestern. I think 1-2 Northwestern keeps this one close enough to escape with a comfortable ATS cover. Penn State’s defense is its major strength, but other than that, this is a team with a lot of questions in all other facets and it’s these ineffeciencies which I feel the Wildcats can take advantage of this week. The Wildcats weakness is their run game. The Nittany Lions though will be susceptible to the pass I think, Northwestern senior QB Trevor Siemian will be given the green light today to air it out, so far he’s connected with 13 different receivers on the season, led by Cameraon Dickson, who has seven receptions for 129 yards. Defense is the one area where Penn State has a big advantage, and that’s why this spread is so large. However, that’s the only one; while the Nitanny Lions possess a strong run game, Northwestern is very solid against it in allowing just 139.7 yards per game on average thus far. The Wildcats front seven will be looking to take advantage of a very young Penn State offensive line, which will eleviate some of the pressure off the secondary. However, Northwestern catches a break here as Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has been all over the map as far as his performance so far this year, he struggled against UMass last week and he’ll have to keep his eyes on DE Dean Lowry who has collected 2.5 sackes on the season; you’ll also want to track Wildcats DE Ifeadi Odengibo, who has two sacks and three forced fumbles. Penn State is vulnerable for a letdown here I think, it has a struggling offensive line and a weak run game and I believe will have its hands full vs. Pat Fitzgerald, who is known for getting his teams to overacheive in these spots. Note that Northwestern is 6-4 ATS its last ten on the road and 4-3 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 11 points range; and note that Penn State is already 0-1 ATS this year as a favorite of 3.5 to 11 points and just 2-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to NORTHWESTERN as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-25-14 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State UNDER 71.5 | Top | 35-45 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This is the opener of Big 12 play for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is 2-1 has been better than expected after losing 17 starters and 33 letterwinners from last season’s team that went 10-3 and played in the Cotton Bowl. After taking Florida State down to the wire in a 37-31 season opening loss, OSU would easily handle Missouri State 40-23 and then UTSA 43-13 on September 13th. The Cowboys inserted QB Daxx Garman vs. the Roadrunners after JW Walsh went down with injury vs. Missouri State, he was 16 of 30 for 315 yards and two TD’s in his first start since high school last week; note though that Garman is very inexperienced and I think will have his hands full with this definite step up in competition. On the other side of the field, Texas Tech opened its season with two straight wins, beating Central Arkansas and Texas El Paso by a combined 11 points before then getting wiped out 49-28 by Arkansas on September 13th. Both teams have had extended time off and from a situational stand-point, I think that works in our favor as I expect the offenses to come in a bit flat-footed to start the game. Texas Tech’s weak point is clearly its defensive unit, but I think catches a small break in having to face the inexperienced Garman. These teams have historically played to some pretty high-scoring games (as evidenced by this sky-high total), however it’s important to note that Texas Tech has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last five following a bye-week, while Oklahoma State has seen it dip below the number in four of its last seven in the same position. When taking into account all of the above factors, in my opinion all signs point to this one sneaking UNDER the number. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | North Carolina +3 v. East Carolina | Top | 41-70 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina. North Carolina is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS this year. It’s had a week off after beating SDSU 31-27 as a 14.5 point favorite on September 6th. So with a week off to prepare and focus, I think the visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door. East Carolina is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS and I think is primed for a letdown here after last week’s emotional 28-21 outright win over Virginia Tech as a 10 point underdog. This is also a “revenge” scenario for the visitors who would fall 55-31 at home to ECU last year as 12.5 point favorites. So while the Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall, I definitely feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot, which is bad news vs. this confident Tar Heels team. UNC entered the season ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and has won its two games by a combined 31 points, but has since dropped out of the national rankings. The offense looks great, the defense needs some work though after giving up 29 and 27 points respectively. But as mentioned, the NC’s offense looks fantastic, it’s posted 87 total points so far behind a very balanced pass/rush attack. Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams has already thrown for 424 yards and four TDs behind a 67.2 percent pass completion. Williams though has also been deadly with his feet, he’s rushed for 115 yards and two major scores on 18 attempts. Pirates’ QB Shane Carden has also been great so far, he has 1,031 yards passing in three games, as well as thrown for seven scoring TD’s while completing 63.3 percent of his throws; that said, I think he’ll be in tough today vs. this revenge minded UNC unit. So not only do I feel this sets up as a letdown spot for ECU after its big upset last week, but I also believe that it’s a “look ahead” spot for it, as well as it won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to next week’s bye. Conversely, this is an ultra important game for the Tar Heels who are in No. 22 Clemson next week, then Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh, Duke and NC State to finish the season; in my opinion, this is a must-win contest for the visitors. Play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14.5 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on BYU. Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia’s numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with “smoke and mirrors.” The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I’ll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn’t been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD’s last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT’s in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he’s not put any fear into any opposing defense that he’s faced, BYU’s unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs’ pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side’s run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD’s while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD’s. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn’t want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I’ve proven so far that Virginia has been a little “lucky” this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that “luck” runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he’s averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia’s tough front seven; it’s on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year’s game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State UNDER 66 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U SUPER ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Auburn and Kansas State. These are a couple of offensively proficient teams, but I think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring game on Thursday night and ultimately expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both schools come in with perfect records and each will be confident it can come away with an important non-conference victory, each of course facing the thick of the brutal conference schedules. This is a classic coaching battle, Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder is regarded as one of the best in the history of the game, while Auburn’s Gus Malzahn is considered one of the sharpest of his generation. Auburn QB Nick Marshall has been without the full services of WR Sammie Coates who has been dealing with a knee injury; Coates is inching his way back to full health, but isn’t quite there yet. The Wildcats’ QB Jake Waters has proven to be one of the most accurate in the nation, but he’s equally as proficient with his feet, two weeks ago he racked up 138 yards and two TD’s on the ground against Iowa State. Auburn is in a unique position today in that it’s its first non-conference road game against a ranked opponent since 2002 (note that Tigers have not won a non-conference road game since 1997, and haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 1984). Auburn though will look to break that slide, it also relies on a strong run game, the team has averaged at least 200 rushing yards in a country-leading 13 straight games. Note that the Tigers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four following a bye-week, while K-State has seen it dip below the number in five of its last seven when playing the role of underdog. When you add it all up, all signs point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | USC v. Boston College +20 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on Boston College. Many different factors collide for the home side here, I look for Boston College to keep this one close enough to come away with the comfortable ATS cover. USC has won two straight, both SU and ATS but I think will come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door open for the home side to sneak through. The Trojans are coming off an emotional win at Stanford and I think the Eagles and coach Steve Addazio can take advantage of this letdown spot and keep it much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that combined with this non-conference road game, that USC won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to its bye next week, and then its important game at home vs. Oregon State on the 27th. I think the Trojans will be in for a bit of a surprise here, BC has a potent rush attack and will be able to control the ball for stretches while on offense; in fact, QB Tyler Murphy has been the team’s leading rusher with 210 yards and two TD’s in two games. Murphy will be a hand full today, he’s 27 of 52 for 307 yards so far and averages 7.2 yards per carry. USC looked great in its series opening win vs. a discombobulated Fresno State team, but I think will have difficulties in moving the ball so proficiently vs. this more sound Eagles defensive unit. Note that USC is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while BC is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in front of the home town crowd. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BOSTON COLLEGE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT on UCLA. This game is being played in Texas, but in a neutral location, I think the “vistors” have a big opportunity to shake off a somewhat lacklustre start and take advantage of this discombobulated Longhorns team. Texas is simply in free fall, coach Charlie Strong must wonder what the heck he got himself into after 34-point losses at home. A big reason why, starting QB David Ash is now out indefinitely with a concussion and so far backup Tyrone Swoops has been extremely inconsistent; it’s hardly been all Swoopes fault though as he is playing behind a severely depleted line. Those offensive line issues aren’t going to magically resolve themselves and its a point of weakness that the Bruins can attack. UCLA has been anything but impressive year as it has won two, one-possession games over Memphis and Virginia. The Bruins secondary has a big opportunity to redeem itself vs. the Longhorns backup this weekend. So while UCLA has looked pretty mediocre so far, there’s no question in my mind that Texas’ issues are much deeper. Note that UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while Texas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog; play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-11-14 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 49 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U SUPER-SAMURAI on the UNDER between Louisiana Tech and North Texas. Both teams would lose horribly in Week 1, only to bounce back and win big in Week 2. Louisiana Tech lost 48-16 in its opener to Oklahoma, before then trouncing Louisiana Lafayette 48-20 last week (both games flew well above the posted number). North Texas was smoked 38-7 by Texas in its opener, before then annihilating SMU 43-6 last weekend. It’s hard to get a true read on either of these teams quite yet, certainly both of their competition last week was extremely poor, the teams they were facing will end up with no more than 2-3 wins at the end of the year. When these teams played last year, North Texas would win 28-13 and when the final whistle sounds at the end of this one, I expect a similar combined outcome. The Mean Green were very effective in slowing down the Bulldogs run game last season and I think it’s this tough defensive unit which will prove to be the difference once again in the outcome of this play. Louisiana Tech’s Kenneth Dixon had 184 yards on 12 carries last week, but he’ll face a North Texas team which held the Mustangs to just 8 yards; note that the Mean Green are also a run first option, they had 245 yards on the ground last week. The ability of North Texas to stop the run will frustrate LTech and take it out of its comfort zone (note that the Mean Green have seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of their last 11 in front of the home town crowd). I think the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-06-14 | Michigan State v. Oregon UNDER 58 | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -106 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Michigan State and Oregon. No. 7 Michigan State gets set to battle No. 3 Oregon in the first nonconference matchup at Autzen Stadium that features two teams ranked in the top 10. This is a game of contrasting styles, while the Ducks were able to rack up 673 yards of offense in their season opening 62-13 slaughter of South Dakota, I think it’s safe to say that they’ll have a much more difficult time in duplicating that effeciency vs. Michigan State which had the fourth-ranked defense in the nation last year, allowing the opposition to average just 274.38 yards per contest. The Spartans looked pretty sharp in their 45-7 victory over Jacksonville State last week. One player to keep your eyes on today is Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun, who was the Big Ten Defensive Players of the Year last season and who is projected to be a first-round NFL pick. Calhoun will be tasked in getting pressure on Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, who would total 4 TD’s last week. It’s interesting to note that one of the Ducks’ two losses last year was to Stanford, which would itself lose 24-20 to the Spartans in the Rose Bowl. Note that Michigan State has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last nine away from friendly confines, while Oregon has seen it dip below the posted number in five of its last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think each team’s offense comes out a little flat here and expect this total to sneak UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds. AAA Sports |
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09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford. I had a big play on USC last week and it would pull away down the stretch for a convincing 52-13 win over Fresno State. Suffice it to say, I think the Trojan’s will have their hands full today though with this deep and well rested Stanford team and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a big game, the winner takes and early edge in the Pac-12 standings and the inaugural College Football Playoff race. “Revenge” definitely comes into play here as well, USC held off the Cardinal 20-17 at home last season as a 3.5 point underdog. Sure the Trojans looked good at home vs. Fresno State, but hitting the road for a divisional contest next time out is a tall task I believe, especially considering that Stanford is 13-1 SU at home vs. ranked opponents over the last five years. This is also a great situational play because Stanford was able to rest almost all of its starters in the second half of its 45-0 destruction of UC Davis. Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan will certainly be motivated and focused today, he had the worst game of his career in the loss to USC last year, he threw two critical INTs in the fourth quarter and was just 14 of 25 for 127 yards overall. No doubt Hogan was loving the performance of Ty Montgomery last week, who returned his first career punt for a TD while also catching five passes for 77 and another score. Both teams looked pretty good defensively vs. the weaker competition, we’ll call this area a “wash.” So while this contest is obviously crucial for both sides, I simply feel it means more to Stanford: as mentioned off the top, there is the revenge factor which must be taken into consideration, but also note that with road games at Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State coming up, this early divisional home contest almost becomes a “must win” scenario for the Cardinal. In my opinion, all signs point to STANFORD as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-06-14 | Northern Illinois v. Northwestern OVER 57.5 | Top | 23-15 | Loss | -106 | 90 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Northern Illinois and Northwestern. There is a lot on the line for both schools today and I think that when the smoke clears at the end of this one, that this total will sneak above the posted number. Never before has Northwestern gone 0-2 to start a season under the direction of coach Pat Fitzgerald, but that’s exactly where the team finds itself this week; suffice it to say, I think it’s this crucial motivating factor which will prove to be the difference here: “It's a tough pill to swallow to lose a game, but I think our guys are pointing the thumb at each other, really looking inward, looking at their performance and what they could have and would have and should have done," Fitzgerald commented earlier in the week. "They didn't do it. I think they will get that fixed. I really do." The Wildcats finished just 5-7 last year and have to be feeling disappointed after losing 31-24 to California in front of the home town crowd to open the season; however, take note, it wasn’t all doom and gloom, the Wildcats did turn things around in the second half, they trimmed a 24-point deficit to just seven and were on the doorstep to score once again before a costly INT would seal the victory for the Golden Bears. I think Northwesterns resolve was impressive though, it could have thrown in the white towel but instead fought to the bitter end. Moving to .500 will certainly be easier said than done vs. Northern Illinois though, it’s true that the Huskies are in a transition this year, but it’s a program which knows how to win, its ranked second among FBS schools with 47 victories over the past four seasons and it sure looked great in hammering Presbyterian 55-3 last week. And if history is any precedence, there’s no question that we can expect a highly competitive game today, the Huskies have won four of their last seven vs. the Big Ten, most recently knocking off Purdue and Iowa. I think the home side will have its hands full with QB Matt McIntosh, who was extremely effecient last week in going 10 of 14 for 87 yards and a major score (note that he’d also carry four times for 27 yards). Note that Northern Illinois has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three vs. the Big Ten, while Northwestern has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of its last five home games when the total in the contest is posted between 56.5 and 63. I think these coaches open up the playbook and expect this total to go OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada UNDER 64 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U SCORPION on the UNDER between Washington State and Nevada. The general betting public loves hammering the OVER on Prime Time College Football and NFL games, this particular one is no different, the total opened at 64 and has since climbed to 67 (I personally have 64); regardless, I still really like this play, while both of these teams put up some pretty big numbers last week, I think they’ll have a much harder time moving the ball tonight and look for this game to sneak UNDER the number as the game comes down the stretch. Washington State QB Connor Halliday had 532 yards and five TDs in his team’s 41-38 loss to Rutgers. Nevada QB Cody Fajardo threw for 303 yards in a 28-19 win over Southern Utah. Certainly the Cougars can’t be happy in with the way they lost, we can expect an added emphasis put on ball control and on the defensive end of the field as they were outscored 10 in the fourth quarter and would give up the go-ahed TD with 3:24 left after River Cracraft muffed a fair catch in the closing minutes. WSU obviously struggled on the defensive side of the ball, but the expected return of LB Cyrus Coen, who was out last week with injury and who is the team’s leading tackler the last two seasons, will definitely help things out in that department as he was back at practice this week and has been cleared to go (note that WSU will be focused here for sure, it was caught off-guard on the very first play of the game, surrenduring a 78-yard TD pass on the first play from scrimmage). Nevada looked decent on the offensive side of the ball I thought last week, it would take a 7-0 lead into halftime vs. Southern Utah before extending that mark to 28-6 early in the fourth; there was a bit of a defensive lapse late, but the unit will be forced to be on its toes throughout this one against the explosive Cougars offense. The ground game looked good for the Wolf Pack, RB Don Jackson would finish with 110 rushing yards and a TD. It definitely remains to be seen though if Nevada can continue its success on third down, it went a superb 14 for 22 vs. Southern Utah. I think all the situational and motivational factors are in place for a lower-scoring affair, so lets move onto some strong O/U trends in this spot, note that Washington State has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 away from friendly confines, while Nevada has seen it dip below the posted number in seven of its last 11 in front of the home town crowd. So that means that the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed clearly point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) +2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 1181 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* “ASSASSIN” on Miami. Here’s a great opportunity for Miami to avenge last season’s 36-9 setback in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. Miami gets its shot in the opening game of the season against a Louisville team making its debut in the ACC. Note that star QB Teddy Bridgewater, coach Charlie Strong and playmaker Marcus Smith are all gone for the Cardinals. While the Cardinals still possess a strong defensive unit, they’re going to be asked to do too much today vs. a revenge minded Hurricanes team which has some scary good offensive weapons in Stacy Coley and Duke Johnson, who I believe will be difference makers in the outcome of this contest. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are the types of gems I always keep my eyes open for and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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08-31-14 | Utah State v. Tennessee OVER 49 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 1157 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between Utah State and Tennessee. Tennessee faces nine teams on its 2014 schedule that played in the postseason in 2013; without question it has one of the toughest schedules in the country. While winning the SEC is almost certainly out of the question because of all the new faces the Vols will be starting on both sides of the field, the team has playmakers and there’s no doubt that they’ll be an exciting team to watch this season. These teams open their season on a Sunday night and Tennessee is going to have its hands full in trying to slow down dynamic QB Chuckie Keaton and high-flying Utah State. Keeton suffered a knee injury last October 4th but has been cleared to go this year; Keeton has the mobility and arm to put up some monster numbers this year and he will present a considerable challenge to every defensive unit he faces this season. Also note that the Aggies are expected to start four offensive lineman who played together in 2013 vs. Tennessee’s rookie-laden defensive unit, meaning the pressure is clearly on the Vols offense to pick up the slack today. It’s important to note though that Utah State also lost seven starters from the Moutain West Conference’s top defense last year, a unit which led the league in turnover margin. Expect these two teams to open up the playbook and for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch; play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -9 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 1131 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Georgia. As a situational handicapper, “revenge” is a big factor I take into account when studying College Football opportunties and there’s no question that this selection falls into that category. When you throw in the fact that Clemson is without perhaps the best offensive player in the league from 2013, I think that the writing is on the wall and look for Georgia to avenge last season’s thriller. The Tigers lost Tajh Boyd to the NFL, meaning Cole Stoudt will be making his first career start in this game. Stoudt has experience with the offense, but this is an entirely different situation with all of the expectations now heaped on his shoulders and he’s going to have a hell of a time playing in such a hostile environment. Clemson was unable to slow down RB Todd Gurley last year, who ran for 154 yards against it. With so much pressure on the defensive unit to carry the load, I’m predicting a classic letdown here. Georgia lost by a heart-breaking three-point margin last season, 38-35, but will benefit greatly here in playing in friendly confines. While Georgia will also be starting a new QB, overall the unit has had much less turnover and I don’t expect much of a drop off. Note that beyond Boyd, the Tigers will also be looking to replace playmakers Sammy Watkins, who was their second-best receiver, Martavius Bryand and leading rusher Roderick McDowell. The Bulldgos also return almost their entire defensive unit. I’m expecting GEORGIA to pull away down the stretch; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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08-30-14 | Troy v. UAB UNDER 66 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 150 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Troy and UAB. Last season Troy would need a 30-yard field goal to earn a 34-31 OT victory over UAB. Three years ago Troy would score 10 points over the final five minutes to secure a 24-23 win. Back in 2010, UAB beat Troy on a Hail Mary pass to win 34-33. It’s safe to say these teams are very familiar with one another. However, this year both schools will be starting new quarterbacks, so while it will likely once again be a nail-biter, I think all signs point to a lower-scoring, “chess match” style of contest where field position becomes paramount in determining the outcome. Both offenses feature strong running backs, we can expect each team to lean heavily on those guys today as to alleviate some of the pressure off the rookie pivots. Each team also has a strong defensive unit, with playmakers up and down the line. So while both teams have played to some higher-scoring shootouts over the last couple of seasons, the conditions are definitely right here for a much tighter game; play on the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-29-14 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 65 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 1111 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the UNDER between Colorado State and Colorado. These teams played to five straight UNDERS before Colorado beat Colorado State 41-27 last year. Note the totals in those six games: 57, 50.5, 46.5, 51.5, 47.5 and last year’s 50.5. This season’s total is set at 65 (I took on July 14th, 2014). This is 14.5 points higher than any other game these team’s have played in the last six years, which doesn’t make sense as each has lost some punch on the offensive side of the ball coming into the 2014/15 campaign. RB Kapri Bibbs left Colorado State in the offseason, Bibbs would set school records with 1.741 rushing yards and 31 TDs last year. The Rams have a competent QB in Garrett Grayson who threw for school-records in yards and TDs, but I think he will feel the effect of Bibbs absence; Bibbs kept opposing defenses honest, they’ll now be able to unleash the pass rush without fear of getting burned. Note that the offensive line is also a big question mark with center Weston Richburg and three of the other four starters having moved on. Defenisvely though the Rams are going to be pretty good, it’s true that Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Shaquil Barrett is gone, but the unit returns seven defensive starters from last season, including leading tacklers Aaron Davis and Max Morgan. While the Rams are sure to put up some numbers this year, I definitely feel its going to take some time befor the offensive gels. The Colorado Buffaloes finished in last-place in the Pac-12 in 2013. The team has not gotten any better over the offseason and will once again have a hell of a time within in its new division, meaning these non-conference contests become even more important. The Buffs catch a break in not having to face Bibbs, expect to see a heavy dose of the rush. I believe there are enough significant factors which point to a more traditional, lower-scoring game between these two teams in 2014; play on the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-28-14 | Tulane +4 v. Tulsa | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 1086 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EARLY AAC LINE-MOVER SPECIAL on Tulane. I am a situational handicapper at heart. When it comes to ATS sports and O/U’s, I mainly look at past statistics and numbers to base my selections, rarley do individual player match-ups play a role in my process (unless of course it involves a star player like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady etc). Tulsa has not gotten much better over the offseason, while Tulane comes into the 2014/15 campaign filled with confidence after its best effort in the last decade. The Green Wave had lost eight straight to the Golden Hurricane, both SU and ATS until they finally came out on top with the 14-7 victory as 3-point underdogs last year. It’s been a long hard road for Tulane, from 2003 to 2012 it won just a total of 33 games, an average of justt 3.3 wins per season during the 10-year span. Things changed when Curtis Johnson took over head coaching duties. Johnson had been the New Orleans Saints WR coach for six years before taking over in 2012. The Green Wave won just two games that season before Johnson would then lead them to a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last year. It’s true that Tulane clinched a bowl bid early and went just 1-4 down the stretch, but note that three of those came by a total of just 10 points. But with winning comes confidence, and also money; the Green Wave have an entirely new stadium ready to go this year. It will be a difficult switch from the Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, but Tulane catches a break in facing a familiar face in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane also come over from Conference USA. Tulsa dominated the conference for the better part of a decade before finally coming back down to Earth in 2013/14, finishing just 3-9. The biggest difference was clearly on offense, finishing No. 102 in the nation with just 21.1 points per game, six of its nine losses by 17 or more points. Tulsa is now in full rebuilding mode, it has a ton of new faces on both sides of the ball, several freshmen and sophomores will be playing a lot of minutes. Tulane is focused and has an identity, it played tough defense last year and while it will surely have its hands full in moving to the new conference, this first game sets up beautifully for it. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -8.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 707 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR" on Florida State.
Well you likely heard, read or seen all the build up to this National Championship game. The underdog Auburn team is coming off three heart stopping wins over Georgia, Alabama and Missouri to get to this point. Florida State has been rolling all opponents this season, winning by an average of more than 27 points. The Seminoles bring in arguably the biggest game changer in college football this year win Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and I think him, along with an underappreciated defense will make this an easy win for the favorites here. At some point the luck will run out for a Auburn that is playing little defense on its way the National Championship game. The Tigers ranked a disappointing 88th nationally in total defense (423.5 ypg allowed), while yielding 260.2 yards per game passing (104th nationally). They aren |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 535 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Alabama.
Oklahoma comes into the Sugar Bowl at 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS out of the Big 12. The Sooners played spoilers well in beating rival Oklahoma State 33-24. Sterling Shepard had seven receptions fo 112 yards and back up QB Blake Bell filled in lead the Sooners to win nicely. Alabama comes in 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS out of the SEC. I think everyone in the sporting world saw how the Crimson Tide fell 28-34 to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Tide lost on 99 yards missed FG return by Auburn. It |
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 508 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Michigan State.
Michigan State out of the Big Ten comes into the Rose Bowl at 12-1 SU and 8-4 off an upset win over Ohio State 34-24 to win the conference. Conner Cook finished 24-of-40 for a career-high 304 yards and three scores. Langford ran 24 times for 128 yards. Stanford won the PAC 12 with an 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS record after taking out Arizona State 38-14. Tyler Gaffney ran for 133 yards and scored three touchdowns to lead the Cardinal to its |
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -112 | 503 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin Badgers come into the Capital One Bowl at 9-3 SU and 9-2 ATS out of the Big Ten. The Badgers were edged out 24-31 by Penn State the last time they saw action. The Badgers only have themselves to blame. They were uncharacteristically prone to mental errors and mistakes, turning over the ball three times. South Carolina out of the SEC comes in at 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS after a 31-17 win over Clemson. Conner Shaw threw for 152 yards and a TD and also ran for 92 yards and major in the win. Wisconsin's offense this season has been a potent one, boasting 35.8 points per game thanks largely to the nation's eighth-ranked rushing attack (283.0 ypg). Facing a number of SEC teams with high-powered rushing attacks, South Carolina allowed only 142.2 yards per game on the ground and clearly has the capacity to bottle up Gordon and White, which will give it a strong chance at the victory. However, Wisconsin's defense will be the difference-maker in this one against a Gamecocks' offense that lacks explosion. Its |
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12-14-13 | Army v. Navy UNDER 55 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 147 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* "TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER" on the "under" between Army and Navy.
Army comes into the Armed Forces Bowl at 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS after a 42-49 loss at Hawaii. A.J. Schurr rushed for four second-half touchdowns to lead the Black Knights, who also got a rushing score from Matt Giachinta. Army rushed for 254 yards, nearly 80 yards less than their average of 333.1, which led the FBS entering the game. Navy sits at 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS after a 58-52 OT win at San Jose State. Keenan Reynolds set an NCAA record by scoring seven rushing touchdowns, including the game winner in the third overtime. The last two meetings between these teams saw the collective total number fall well below the line and I expect that to be the case again here. Rushing the ball is always biggest part of this game and it just happens to eat the clock as well. Note that the lower number is also 3-1 in Army games after two consecutive losses. Look for another hard fought low scoring running game again as are military forces meet again in this great tradition. AAA |
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12-07-13 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -10.5 | Top | 33-24 | Loss | -106 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* "DESTRUCTION" on Oklahoma State.
After a bye week the 17th ranked Oklahoma Sooners comes in the final week of the season at 9-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 42-31 win over Kansas State on the road. Trevor Knight threw for 196 yards, one TD and one INT while Brennan Clay rushed for 200 yards and two TDs in the win. The 6th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys sit at 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS after a bye week as well. Before the open date the Cowboys took down the powerful Baylor Bears 49-17 at home. Clint Chelf passed for a career-high 370 yards and accounted for four touchdowns and Tracy Moore finished with five catches for 126 for Oklahoma State. This is a big rivalry game for sure and both teams should get up for it. Although the Bedlam rivalry always brings out the best in the Sooners, they will be hard-pressed to tackle an Oklahoma State squad that has been nearly flawless since making the switch to Chelf under center. With a BCS bowl bid in their sights, expect the Cowboys to be focused on the task at hand. Oklahoma State is a 6-1 ATS at home this season and a perfect 6-0 ATS after a win over conference rival. The Sooners are just 3-5 ATS versus conference opponents. Lay the points. AAA |
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12-05-13 | Louisville -3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 31-24 | Win | 101 | 78 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Louisville.
Off a bye week Louisville is 10-1 SU and 4-7 ATS after a 24-17 win over Memphis. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 220 yards and a touchdown. Dominque Brown and Senorise Perry combined for 107 yards and a TD rushing. Louisville outgained Memphis 342-279 but still stumbled to the finish line in what wasn |
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11-30-13 | UCLA +4 v. USC | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* "UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR" on UCLA.
UCLA is 8-3 SU and 7-4 SU and after a 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. Brett Hundley passed for 253 yards and two touchdowns for UCLA. Myles Jack rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown while the freshman linebacker played almost exclusively on offense. USC is 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS after a 47-29 win over Colorado. Javorius Allen ran for a career-best 145 yards and three touchdowns while Cody Kessler passed for184 yards and two TDs. Even without the motivation of a conference title, both of these teams will have plenty to play for on Saturday. USC's ability to create havoc in the backfield could disrupt the normally unflappable Hundley just as Barr could keep Kessler from hitting his stride. Expect a game that comes down to the final minutes with the Bruins making enough plays on offense to grab a win. USC is 0-2 ATS this season when the spread is +3-3 while the Bruins are 3-1 in the same situation. Grab the points with UCLA, a 10* Under Dog Game of the Year selection. AAA |
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11-30-13 | Baylor -12.5 v. TCU | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Baylor.
Baylor is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS after getting crushed 17-49 at Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Bears were held to a season-worst 453 yards including 94 on the ground while committing three turnovers. Baylor had won the nine previous games by an average of 43.7 points but never led against the Cowboys. TCU is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS after a bye week. The Horned Frogs lost 31-33 to Kansas State on the road prior to the open date. Casey Pachall completed 23-of-33 passes for 243 yards, one TD and one INT in the place of Trevone Boykin. B.J. Catalone had 12 carries for 71 yards and one TD in the loss. Baylor suffered to embarrassing and crushing defeat last week, having its national championship chances crushed. I expect the Bears to bounce back with a vengeance this week. "We still have a lot to play for. We've got to go out and win these next two games. There are still goals and ambitions that we set prior to the season that we can still accomplish, " Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty said. Last weekend the Bears struggled to find offense in a hostile environment against one of the league's best defensive units in Oklahoma State. This week they face a Horned Frogs team that don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bears. Lay the points with Baylor. AAA |
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11-30-13 | Boston College v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Syracuse.
Boston College is 7-4 SU and ATS after a 29-26 win over Maryland last week. Andre Williams rushed for 263 yards to become the 16th player in NCAA history to top 2,000 in a single season. Williams had two TDs including the winning one. Race Rettig completed 6-14 passes for 120 yards, one TD and one INT. Syracuse continued to struggle, losing a 17-16 game to Pittsburgh to fall to 5-6 SU and 7-4 ATS. Terrel Hunt finished 18 of 28 for 159 yards and Jerome Smith gained 88 yards rushing for the Orange. The Orange has struggled but shouldn |
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11-30-13 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -115 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Michigan State.
Minnesota is 8-3 SU and ATS after 7-20 loss to Wisconsin last week at home. Philip Nelson finished just 7-for 23 for 83 yards. The Gophers only TD was an Aaron Hill 39 yard pick six return in the second quarter. Minnesota had just 185 total yards on the game. Michigan State won its seventh in a row with a 30-6 decision over Northwestern. Connor Cook threw for a career-high 293 yards, Jeremy Langford ran for 150 yards in the win. Michigan State is on fire with seven wins in row should be able to get a big win here at home. The Spartans are 9-0 SU and at home and 6-3 ATS. Minnesota is 7-7 ATS on the road the past three seasons. Michigan State won last years |
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11-29-13 | Washington State v. Washington -14.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Washington.
Washington State is 6-5 SU and 8-3 SU after a nice 49-37 win over Utah last weekend. Connor Halliday threw for 488 yards and four touchdowns while Dom Williams caught a pair of touchdown passes to go with 154 yards receiving for the Cougars. Washington is 1-4 SU and 6-5 ATS after a 69-27 win at Oregon State. Redshirt freshman Cyler Miles made his first college start and threw for 162 yards and a touchdown for Washington while Bishop Sankey ran for 179 yards and three touchdowns. Washington finished with 692 yards in total offense, compared to 414 for Oregon State. Hau'oli and the Huskies front line will be able to get pressure on Halliday and that could open up opportunities for the secondary to cash in on some errant throws. With the addition of Price to their offensive game plan, the Huskies' balance will prove too much for the one-sided Cougars. Lay the points with Washington AAA |
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11-29-13 | East Carolina v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 28-59 | Win | 100 | 97 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Marshall.
East Carolina is 9-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 42-28 win over North Carolina State last Saturday. Shane Carden threw three touchdown passes and ran for two scores to help the Pirates. Vintavious Cooper had 148 yards rushing while Justin Hardy added 83 yards and a TD receiving in the win. Marshall sits at 8-3 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 48-10 beat down Florida International. Rakeem Cato 241 yards passing and threw four TD passes in the win. Three of those TDs went to Gator Hoskins who also had 137 yards receiving. Both these teams come into this game on quite a nice roll having won six of seven. Note that East Carolina is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season while Marshall is a perfect 5-0 ATS and is undefeated in friendly confines. These are two of the top teams in Conference USA and I expect a close battle with Marshall coming out on top thanks to strong home field advantage. Take Marshall to win and cover the spread along the way. AAA |
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | Top | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* "TURKEY DAY TOP PLAY" on Texas.
Texas Tech sits at 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS off a bye week. Prior to the open date the Red Raiders fell to Baylor 34-63 on the road. Texas Tech scored touchdowns on its first three drives, and had No. 5 Baylor facing its first double-digit deficit of the season at the time but still the Red Raiders could not hold on. Texas sits at 7-3 SU and 4-5 ATS after a week off as well. The Long Horns are looking to bounce back off its |
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11-26-13 | Western Michigan +35 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on Western Michigan.
Western Michigan is 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS after a norrow 22-27 loss at home to Central Michigan. Dareyon Chance had 14 carries for 93 yards and one TD score. Zach Terrell completed just 14 of 35 passes for 147 yards zero TDs and one INT. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU and 7-4 ATS after a 35-17 win at Toledo. Star QB Jordan Lynch finished with three touchdowns- all in the second half, and 161 yards. I played on the Huskies last week as the slight favorite versus Toledo and was successful. This time I feel the value has jumped opposite of the Huskies as this is a massive spread. Yes the Huskies have won two straight versus Western Michigan but not last years |
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11-23-13 | Missouri -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 150 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Missouri.
The Missouri Tigers sit at 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS and are well rested after a bye week. The Tigers took care of Kentucky 48-17 prior to the bye. Maty Mauk completed 17 of 28 attempts for 203 yards and that included a massive five TD passes. Henry Josey had 113 yards rushing to go with a couple TD scores. Mississippi is 7-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 51-21 win over Troy last weekend. Bo Wallace was 17 for 26 for 272 yards and rushed for 66 yards on nine carries for a total of four TDS. Mississippi set a school record for total offense with 751 yards. This is looks to be good matchup on the Saturday Game Day as both teams are playing well and are in the Top 25 currently. Ole Miss has the home field advantage but they are going to be in tough with a Missouri offense that averages of 41.3 points and 492.6 yards per game and is getting their starting QB back in James Franklin. Defensively, Ole Miss has played much better than expected, as it holds foes to just 25.0 points per game but won |
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11-23-13 | Kentucky v. Georgia -23 | Top | 17-59 | Win | 100 | 149 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Georgia.
Kentucky is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS after a 6-22 loss at Vanderbilt. Jalen Whitlow threw four INTs but did rush for 69 yards as the main chain mover the Wildcats Kentucky lost its |
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11-23-13 | Idaho v. Florida State -56 | Top | 14-80 | Win | 100 | 146 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Florida State.
Idaho is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS after a 38-59 loss at home to Old Dominion. Taylor Davis finished the game 15-for-29 for 305 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Dezmon Epps had 175 yards receiving and a TD for the Vandals in a losing effort. Florida State continued its tear of FBS with a 56-3 win over Syracuse to move to 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS. Jameis Wintson completed 19-of-21 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The Seminoles scored 28 points before the Orange recorded 28 yards of total offense -- and Winston was the star in the rout. If Idaho was unable to shut down Old Dominion, there is little chance of stopping Florida State, which is one of the nation's top offensive squads. The Seminoles rank second nationally in scoring (52.7 ppg) and eighth in total offense (521.2 ypg). The spread looks large but Florida State hasn |
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11-23-13 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -6.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Wyoming.
Hawaii is 0-10 and 5-5 ATS after a 21-28 OT loss at San Diego State. John Schroeder finished 18-for-36 for 194 yards, two TDs and one INT. Joey Iosefa rushed 37 times for 150 yards and one TD. The Rainbow Warriors actually held the lead late in this game before OT. Wyoming is 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after getting killed 7-48 at Boise State. The Broncos put the game away early and scored 48 unanswered points after the Cowboys took an early 7-0 lead on their second possession of the game. Neither team is having a great season but its |
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11-23-13 | Cincinnati +4.5 v. Houston | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 142 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Cincinnati.
Cincinnati comes into this game at 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 52-17 win at Rutgers. Brendon Kay threw for a career-best 405 yards and four touchdowns, Mekale McKay caught three TDs in the win. Shaq Washington had 123 yards receiving and a TD on six receptions as well. Houston is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS after a 13-20 loss at Louisville. John Okorn completed 19-of 35 passes for 121 yards. While other teams like UCF and Louisville have gotten all the headlines in this conference, the Bearcats have gone quietly under the radar at 8-2 on the season. Brandon Kay owns the highest completion percentage on the season and should be effective in this game as it brings in an offense that averages 35 points a game. Houston has lost two in a row but granted they have been close games against tough opponents. A classic sense of offense versus defense but I like the way Kay is playing right now. Take Cincinnati as the underdog. AAA |
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11-23-13 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 142 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 48-10 beat down of Iowa State. Trevor Knight replaced the injured Blake Bell and help lead the team a 38-0 run in the second half. Knight was 8-of-14 passing for 61 yards and rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown. Damien Williams added 10 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns for the Sooners. Kansas State won its fourth in a row to move to 6-4 SU and ATS. The Wildcats won a thriller over TCU 33-31. Jack Cantele sent a 41-yard field goal attempt through the uprights with three seconds remaining to lift the team. Jake Waters finished 10-of-24 passing for 234 yards, two TDs and one INT. The Sooners bounced back nicely after a devastating loss to Baylor a week before and I expect them to continue good football this week. Kansas State looks to have found their groove with four straight wins. Both these teams lost to Baylor and Texas, but the Wildcats were competitive in their setbacks, while Oklahoma was routed. Still, the Sooners are looking from revenge after Kansas State won a 24-19 game last season as the underdog. Look for the Sooners not only to make it close, but have a good shot at the outright win. Take the points with Sooners. AAA |
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11-22-13 | Navy +3 v. San Jose State | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SCORPION" on Navy.
Visiting Navy is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS after a 43-14 beat down of S. Alabama last week. Kneenan Reynolds converted 10-of-17 passes for 168 yards and a score to Matt Aiken, adding another 59 yards on the ground on 17 carries for a rushing attack that generated 351 yards and scored four TDs. Reynolds combined to take part in three TDs. San Jose State sits at 5-5 SU and ATS after a 16-38 loss at Nevada last week. David Fales completed 28-of-43 passes, but had just one touchdown and was sacked three times, with those negative 25 rushing yards bringing down the team's overall rushing output to a mere 58 yards on 30 attempts. This looks to be a close matchup as both teams are evenly matched. Navy has a better record but has played a weaker schedule. Still, the Midshipmen are on roll and Navy has won two straight games and three of the last four. Navy is also looking to avenge a 0-12 loss last season. Grab the points here in a game Navy has good chance of pulling out. AAA |
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11-21-13 | UNLV v. Air Force -2.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Air Force.
The UNLV Rebels are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS and are coming off a 28-24 loss to Utah State on November 9th. QB Caleb Herring was just 17 of 39 for 252 yards and two TD's along with a costly INT. RB Tim Cornett had 115 yards on 29 attempts and one TD. It was however the Rebels second consecutive home loss and they remain one win shy of being bowl eligible. Unfortunately, a cold blustery day at Air Force is not conducive for this team to get that victory. Note that extreme inclement conditions have been forecast for this contest, 70% chance of snow showers, a 10-20 KMH wind and a wind chill of 11. Air Force is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. The Falcons are coming off a hard-fought 45-37 setback at New Mexico on November 8th. Anthony LaCoste ran for 177 yards while QB Nate Romine threw three TD passes while also running one in for a major. Note that UNLV is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye-week, while Air Force is 3-2 ATS in its last five following a loss to a conference rival. I believe the conditions will be just too much for the kids from the dessert to overcome and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch. Play on Air Force. AAA |
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11-21-13 | Rutgers +16 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Rutgers.
Rutgers is 5-4 SU and 3-5 ATS after suffering a big 17-52 loss at home to Cincinnati last weekend. Not a good day for Gary Nova who completed just 18 of 38 passes for 170 yards, one TD and two INTs. Brandon Coleman was a lone bright spot for the Scarlet Knights, reeling in six catches for 77 yards and a TD. Rutgers allowed a massive 619 total yards to the Bearcats. Central Florida is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS after a narrow 39-36 win over Temple. Blake Bortles had 404 yards passing and 64 yards rushing to go with his four TD passes. J.J Worton had 179 yards and three receiving TDs in the win. This is a classic letdown spot in the schedule for UCF as the team had games versus Temple and Rutgers before next week |
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB +20 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 103 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on UAB.
The Rice Owls sit at 7-3 SU and ATS after a 52-14 beat down at home over Louisiana Tech. Charles Ross had five rushing TDs. Ross finished with a career-high 215 yards rushing. Luke Turner also had a 1-yard TD run as Rice set season highs with 415 yards rushing and 582 yards overall. UAB is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS after a 14-63 loss to East Carolina. Jonathan Perry completed just 16-of-34 passes for no TDs and two INTs. This looks like a mismatch at first glance but I feel the value is certainly here with UAB as the massive underdog at home. UAB is 2-1 ATS in home games this season and 1-0 recently as an underdog of 17-21 points at home. Rice is in a classic letdown spot after a big win over a different weaker sister team last week. Take the points with UAB. AAA |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ART OF THE GAME" on Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois sits at 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 48-27 win at home over Ball State. Jordan Lynch went 26 of 32 for 345 yards and two scores while running 20 times for 123 yards and two more TDs. Da |
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11-19-13 | Buffalo -24 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 56 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Buffalo.
Buffalo is 7-3 SU and ATS after a 41-51 loss at Toledo last week. The Bulls fell behind 27-0 nothing at halftime and could never get back into a position to win despite outgaining the Rockets 605-551 in the game. Joe Licata finished the night 36-for-58 for 497 yards and three TDs with zero INTs. Alex Neutz caught eight balls for 168 yards and two scores and set a school record with his 30th career receiving touchdown. Branden Oliver went over 100 yards (102) for the sixth straight game. Miami (Ohio) is 0-10 after a 6-24 loss at Kent State last week. Austin Gearing rushed 23 times for 84 yards in the loss. Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Toledo last week and should be able to take out in a big way against lowly Miami Ohio here. The RedHawks have scored a total of nine points in their last two games. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as the favorite this season and 5-0 versus teams with a losing record. Don |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -13.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SITUATIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR" on Arizona State.
The Oregon State Beavers were idle last week enjoying a bye. Prior the week off, the Beavers moved to 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS, falling 14-31 to USC. Oregon State's Sean Mannion threw for 277 yards and a touchdown but also threw three uncharacteristic interceptions in the loss, the second straight for the Beavers. Brandin Cooks had six receptions for 86 yards and a TD score in the loss. Arizona State is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS after a narrow 20-19 win at Utah. Taylor Kelly finished 19-for-31 for 144 yards and one TD pass in game where he was largely ineffective till the fourth quarter. Marion Grice rushed 20 times for 136 yards. Arizona State has been dominant at home, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season. What has separated Arizona State from other squads in the Pac-12 is that not only is it extremely productive on offense but it can also dominate on defense. The Beavers have been solid all year on the road this is by far the best team its |
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11-16-13 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -27 | Top | 34-63 | Win | 100 | 148 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Baylor.
Texas Tech fell to 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 26-49 loss at home to Kansas State. Backup QB Baker Mayfield completed 34 of 44 passes for 347 yards, zero TDs and two INTs in place of Davis Webb who left with an injury in the second quarter. Jace Amaro, the Big 12's leader in receptions, continued his streak of games with at least eight catches. He finished with nine for 67 yards. Meanwhile, Baylor continued to roll to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record after a 59-12 romp of Oklahoma last week to show that the team is for real. Bryce Petty completed 13 of 26 passes for 206 yards and three TDs and also rushed for two more on 16 carries. Shock Linwood had 23 carries for 182 yards on the ground. While the Red Raiders' defensive numbers (27.0 ppg, 389.1 ypg) appear respectable, the unit has played poorly during the three-game losing streak in allowing a whopping 46.3 ppg. That spells bad news going into a game with a Baylor offense that ranks as the best overall offensive team in the nation. The Bears have far and away the most explosive offense in the nation, ranking first in the FBS in total offense (686.0 ypg), scoring offense (61.0 ppg), pass efficiency at 201.5 and yards per play at 8.64.The Bears are 4-0 ATS as favorite between 21.5 points to 31 this season and is 4-1 ATS versus conference teams this season. Baylor is also 2-0 ATS versus Texas Tech the last few seasons. Lay the points. AAA |
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11-16-13 | Syracuse v. Florida State -39 | Top | 3-59 | Win | 100 | 144 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Florida State.
Syracuse sits at 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS after a 20-3 win over Maryland. Jerome Smith ran for 118 yards and two touchdowns, and Syracuse used a strong defensive effort to beat error-prone Maryland. Terell Hunt finished 15 for 24 for 140 yards and an interception. He also ran for 67 yards on seven carries. Syracuse won despite being penalized 12 times for 115 yards and going 3 for 14 on third-down conversions. Florida State is rolling at 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS after a 59-3 demolition of Wake Forest. Florida State tied a school record with six interceptions, returned turnovers for touchdowns on consecutive plays and gave the offense short fields in the rout. Jamies Winston threw two touchdown passes while leading an offense that gained just 296 total yards, well off its ACC-leading average of 549. The Seminoles are off their best start in school history and has eyes on the National Championship game. The fact that the offense didn |
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11-16-13 | Ohio State -33 v. Illinois | Top | 60-35 | Loss | -105 | 141 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Ohio State.
Ohio State is 9-0 SU and 6-2 ATS after beating up on Purdue 55-0 nothing back on November 2nd. Braxton Miller and combined for seven TDs, five in the air and two on the ground. Jeff Heuerman had 116 receiving yards, including a reception for a score. The Buckeyes defense forced six turnovers in this game. Illinois sits at 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS after a 35-52 loss at Indiana. Nathan Scheelhaase completed 38 of 57 passes for 450 yards and two touchdowns to lead Illinois. He added 45 yards and a score on the ground. Receiver Steve Hull had 224 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions. Ohio State is going to win this game, just by how much is the question. This team hasn't lost in 22 months. Urban Meyer tied a personal best by winning his 22nd consecutive game, which includes his final victory at Florida. The Buckeyes have QB |
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11-16-13 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -23.5 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 141 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Oklahoma.
The Iowa State Cyclones sit at 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS after a 17-20 narrow loss home. Grant Rohach threw for 148 yards. E.J. Bibbs had a team high seven receptions for 63 yards while the team got a TD from Sam Richardson and a special teams TD. The Cyclones offense stalled for much of the game like it has all season. Oklahoma sits at 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS after an embarrassing 12-41 loss at Baylor in a primetime weekday game. Blake Bell had a tough game, completing just 15-of-35 passes for one TD and two INT. The Sooners are still a solid squad and this is an easy matchup for the team. The Cyclones' boast the Big 12's worst defense at 37.8 ppg, 465.3 ypg and have lost six in a row. In terms of the all-time series, it has been complete and utter domination on Oklahoma's part, as it has gone 70-5-2 versus the Cyclones, which includes wins in each of the last 14 meetings. The Sooners are still very stout defensively and the loss to Baylor in my eyes said more about how good the Bears are than a slight on the Sooners who still allow just 21.2 points and 330.3 yards per game. Coming off a very demoralizing loss, I expect this to be a good situation for the Sooners to bounce back .Oklahoma is fortunate it has a home matchup against a last-place team and have had an extra couple of days to prepare for this game more than Iowa State. Expect the Sooners to earn a huge win here. Oklahoma has a 2-0ATS record this season as a favorite between 21.5 points to 30 points. Note that I played against the Sooners last week but I think it has swung the other way here. Lay the big ones here. AAA |
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11-15-13 | Washington +1.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SCORPION" on Washington.
Washington is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS and is coming off a 59-7 blowout win over Colorado. Keith Price threw for two touchdowns and ran for one as part of a huge first half where Washington racked up nearly 500 yards on offense. Washington ran 59 plays and finished with 464 total yards in the first half. Bishop Sankey had 143 yards and a TD rushing the ball. UCLA sits at 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS after a 31-26 win at Arizona. Brett Hundley completed 18-of-25 passes for 227 yards and two TDs. Freshman linebacker Myles Jack played offense, too, rushing for 120 yards on his first six carries of the season. Note that I played on both of these teams last week and was victorious with each covering the spread. These teams are largely mirror images of each other. Each squad has a very effective offense led by two of the more consistent quarterbacks in the country. Scoring points won't be the issue for either team. Look for the value to be in the fact that this game could really come down to the wire and getting points is the way to go. Take Washington plus the points. AAA |
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11-14-13 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -10 | Top | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* "TOP OF THE FOOD CHAIN" on Clemson.
Georgia Tech comes in off a bye sitting at 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS after a 21-10 win over Pittsburgh. Robert Godhigh ran for two touchdowns, Georgia Tech's defense recorded a season-high five sacks. Vad Lee completed 5 of 10 passes for 84 yards. Clemson improved to 8-1 SU and 4-4 ATS after a 59-10 win over Virginia prior to a bye week. Sammy Watkins returned to big time play making mode. Watkins caught eight passes for 169 yards and two scores. It was his sixth 100-yard game this season. Taj Boyd finished 24 of 29 for 377 yards for three TD passes to one INT. Clemson bounced back off a terrible performance with its |
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11-14-13 | Marshall -15.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 45-34 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ART OF THE GAME" on Marshall.
Marshall sits at 6-3 SU and 5-3 ATS after a 46-15 crushing of UAB last Saturday. Rakeem Cato had four total touchdowns and Marshall had 657 total yards. Steward Butler ran for 139 yards, Essray Taliaferro had 118 and Kevin Grooms had 108. The Thundering Herd averaged 12.6 yards per play in the win, school record. Tulsa fell to 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS after a 24-58 loss to Eastern Michigan last Saturday. Trey Watts rushed for 120 yards and a score for Tulsa and has now rushed for at least 100 yards for the 5th time this season and 12th of his career. The Golden Hurricane turned the ball over three times, including an interception that was returned for a TD. Marshall has been on fire of late, winning four of five and is coming off two straight wins where it won by an average of 45 points. Tulsa is 0-4 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as the underdog. The Thundering Herd comes into this game looking for double revenge after a second straight loss to Tulsa last season. Lay the points with Marshall. AAA |
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11-13-13 | Ball State +5.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ART OF WAR" on Ball State.
Ball State sits at 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS after a 44-24 beat down of Eastern Michigan. Keith Wenning threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns and Horactio Banks had 11 carries for a career-high 143 yards and a score to help Ball State. Northern Illinois is 9-0 SU and 5-4 ATS after a 63-19 beat down of Massachusetts. Jordan Lynch was his all world self, rushing for 119 yards and four TDs while throwing for 160 yards and a score. This was a week after Lynch accounted for six TD scores. Backup Drew Hare connected with Chad Beebe on an 81-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter and followed it with a 47-yard TD run to make it 63-19. These are arguably the two best teams in the MAC conference as both teams are a perfect 5-0 in MAC play. Ball State has been a roll as well quietly as they come in as the underdog. The Cardinals have won seven straight and covered the spread the only game they played as the underdog this season. This game plays as double revenge as Northern Illinois has won the last two games by close scores Note that the Cardinals had a 9 point lead in the third quarter before imploding in the matchup last season. Surprisingly, NIU is just 4-4 ATS as the favorite this season. Look for this game to be a close one too and grab the points. AAA |
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11-13-13 | Miami (OH) +17.5 v. Kent State | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ELITE INSIDER" on Miami Ohio.
Miami Ohio is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS after a 3-45 beat down at the hands of Bowling Green. The Redhawks fumbled five times in the loss. Drew Krummer completed 9-of-19 passes for 100 yards. Miami Ohio racked up just 131 yards on the night. Kent State is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS after a 7-16 loss to Akron. Colin Reardon completed just 15-of-31 passes for just 138 yards and no TDs and three INTS. Trayion Durham led the team with 82 yards and a TD. These are two of the worst teams in the MAC and are coming off losses where neither team could put up much of a fight offensively. Kent State is 0-4 ATS in home games this season and don |
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11-12-13 | Buffalo +4 v. Toledo | Top | 41-51 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SUPER-BLOWOUT" on Buffalo.
Buffalo is 7-2 SU and ATS after a 30-3 beat down of Ohio last week. Branden Oliver had 249 yards rushing and two touchdowns to lead Buffalo. Joe Licata threw two touchdown passes to Alex Neutz as the Bulls won their seventh straight game. Toledo is 6-3 SU and ATS and is coming off a bye week. The Rockets won a 55-16 win over Eastern Michigan prior to the open date. Terrance Owens threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns to lead Toledo. The Rockets amassed 729 yards of total offense. Kareem Hunt, who recorded his third consecutive 100-yard game, rushed 20 times for 168 yards and two touchdowns. Two teams on a roll here as Buffalo has won seven in a row and Toledo has won four in row as well. Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season against conference opponents and is looking to get revenge after last year |
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11-09-13 | UCLA -1 v. Arizona | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on UCLA.
UCLA sits at 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS after a 45-23 win over Colorado last week. Brett Hundley looked much more like himself in the victory as he accounted for 345 yards and four total touchdowns to lift the Bruins win. Meanwhile The Wildcats sit at 6-2 and 4-3 ATS as well after surviving what could have been an embarrassing loss on the road against California last weekend but pulled out the 33-28 victory. The win was the third straight for the Wildcats, who are suddenly 6-2 overall and tied with UCLA and USC for second in the Pac-12 South Division. There is skill bursting on each side of the ball for both of these teams. Hundley getting back to normal is a big boost for UCLA but he may have some issues against a vastly improved Arizona defense. Barr could really be an important player in this matchup if he can neutralize Denker's mobility and Carey out of the backfield. This will be a tighter affair than last year but one UCLA will still win. Take UCLA to win this one straight up. AAA |
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11-09-13 | Colorado v. Washington Huskies -27 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 148 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Washington.
Colorado is 3-5 SU and ATS after a 23-45 loss to UCLA last week. Even though they still allowed over 400 yards in the loss to UCLA, the Buffaloes did a decent job of slowing down one of the better offenses in the conference, letting up just 18 first downs. However, the Buffaloes have had very few games to feel good about on defense as they are letting up 467.5 yards of total offense. The Washington Huskies sit at 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS after snapping a two game losing streak with a 41-17 win over California prior to the bye week. Keith Price looked like himself again. Price completed 20-of-32 passes for 376 yards and two touchdowns. The Huskies finished with 642 yards, but perhaps more importantly Sankey and Price looked much more comfortable. This spells the sixth try for Colorado to earn a win against a team from its conference. The first five attempts have been miserable failures as the Buffaloes have been topped by an average of 31 points per game. Their most recent 45-23 disappointment against No. 16 UCLA actually is the closest they have come to a conference victory. This is going to a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the points with the home team. AAA |
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11-09-13 | BYU v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Wisconsin.
BYU has been red-hot, reeling off five straight wins to improve to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. The latest win for the Broncos was a Friday night 37-20 win at home over Boise State on October 25th. Taysom Hill threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns, and ran for 69 yards and another score. He completed 27 of 41 passes to lead the Cougars. Hill dominated from start to finish. In the first half, he threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, ran for a score, and had 306 yards of offense. Wisconsin is also one of the hottest team in the nation after a 28-9 road win at Idaho. James White ran for 132 yards and a pair of late TDs while Joel Stave added two touchdown passes for the Badgers. Hill has the potential to give the Badgers fits, much like Ohio State's Braxton Miller in a Sept. 28 loss, but in the end UW's two- headed monster at running back will be able to dictate the tempo en route to a solid home victory. Lay the points with the home team here. AAA |
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11-09-13 | USC v. California +17 | Top | 62-28 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on California.
USC seems to found its foothold with the departure of Lane Kiffin. The Trojans sit at 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS after last week |
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