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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee +7 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 57.5 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -116 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon AAA |
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10-11-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +3.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on NEW MEXICO This rivalry in the Mountain West Conference has squarely belonged to Colorado State in recent years. The Rams have beaten New Mexico nine straight times and covered five of the last six. However, it's not like the Lobos haven't been getting closer. They lost by only two points (20-18) in Fort Collins a year ago and then by only three the last time CSU came to Albuquerque. Losing by double digits to San Jose State last Friday wasn't a good look for New Mexico, who continues to play "quarterback roulette." Bob Davie has had six different QB's start the last 25 games, none of which have had very much success. But Colorado State coming in as a road favorite just reeks. The Rams haven't even beaten a FBS opponent this year. Their only win was 38-13 over Western Illinois. They've lost four straight since their own QB, Colin Hill, was lost for the season against Arkansas. New Mexico has won both home games this year. There was an excuse for the Lobos losing 32-21 at San Jose State last week and that excuse was six turnovers. Take better care of the football this week and they can pull the upset. Colorado State has turned it over 16 times in six games. They've also lost outright three of the previous six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Another disadvantage the Rams face here is their last game was Saturday while New Mexico played last Friday. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NC STATE Syracuse and North Carolina State are both 3-2 entering Thursday night's ACC matchup, but it feels like whomever loses this game is going to see their season go south in a hurry. Syracuse won 10 games last year. But having to replace the school's all-time passing leader was going to be a chore. After opening the season with a 24-0 win over Liberty (whose coach Hugh Freeze was literally laying in bed), the Orange were subsequently squeezed by both Maryland and Clemson. They lost those games by a combined score of 104-26. They've since beaten Western Michigan and Holy Cross, but that doesn't mean much given the nature of the opponents. They're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, especially on defense, but they're also still using a backup center. Six freshman started the game vs. Holy Cross. QB DeVito had to leave that game with an upper body injury, but will play in this game. Speaking of quarterbacks, NC State turns to a new one Thursday as Bailey Hockman replaces the ineffective Matthew McKay. The Wolfpack like to throw and McKay simply wasn't getting the ball downfield the way coach Doeren wanted. NC State is on a three-game ATS losing streak and was beaten soundly by both West Virginia and Florida State. But they are 3-0 in Raleigh this year and 14-2 their last 16 at home. Syracuse is 4-16 SU on the ACC road since 2014. A change in quarterback should lead to better results for the home team this week as NC State actually played better than you think in the 31-13 loss to Florida State as total yardage and first downs were basically dead even. Play on NORTH CAROLINA STATE AAA |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana AAA |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Georgia v. Tennessee +25.5 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -107 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points. Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB AAA |
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10-05-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA. And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH AAA |
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09-28-19 | NC State v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016. Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame AAA |
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09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH) Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH AAA |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland AAA |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on VA TECH While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15 v. Georgia | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on STANFORD Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo OVER 50.5 | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo AAA |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOISE STATE Boise State is back in the top 20 of the polls, but doesn't feel like its getting the respect it deserves here vs. Air Force. This is a home game, remember. The Broncos are 59-7 SU their L66 games on the blue turf. Maybe the win over Florida State that opened the season isn't as impressive now, considering how bleak things look down in Tallahassee. But you can bet Boise won't be taking Air Force lightly. While they've beaten the Flyboys each of the last two seasons, before that they'd actually lost three straight times to them. One of those was among the seven home losses that have occurred on this field in the past decade. This is going to be a tough spot for Air Force as they played an overtime game last week in Colorado, which saw them upset the favored Buffaloes. Boise State, meanwhile, had a virtual layup against Portland State. Air Force is obviously going to look to run the ball in this game, but so far the Boise State run defense has been very good. We like what we've seen from true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier as well. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes in three games while averaging 343 yards per game through the air. Rough spot on a short week for the underdog here and they are just 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 Mountain West games. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 55.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Houston and Tulane have combined to play six games this year. The Under is 6-0. Houston is 1-2 straight up, thanks to a tough schedule to open the season, which has seen them already face Oklahoma and Washington State. The Cougars only win was against a FCS team and a bad one at that (Prairie View A&M). Tulane lost to Auburn in Week 2, but won its other two games, one of which was against a FCS foe. They also opened the season by beating FIU 42-17. Given that kind of scoring output, we think it's pretty reasonable for the Green Wave to score a lot this week. They also hung 58 on Missouri State last week. Houston not surprisingly is no offensive slouch either as they're averaging over 30 points/game. But a defense that has given up 80 points to its two FBS opponents is a cause for concern. This is a really low total for a game involving Houston. The first three all saw totals in the 70's. That the number has been bet down is a break for us. Play OVER Houston-Tulane AAA |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +24 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA The vultures are circling Chip Kelly right now as UCLA is 0-2 and the school is reportedly having to give tickets away for this home game, even though it's nationally televised and against Oklahoma. Now the matchup all but guarantees the Bruins will be 0-3. But while their fans may have given up on them, we will not. This is a lot of points, at home, for a team that many thought would be 2-0. Oklahoma might be a top five team, but they have a suspect defense that has really yet to be tested. In this situation, Kelly has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect him to go deep into his bag of tricks. The Sooners might have won the last seven games where they were road favorites. But they are also just 1-5-1 against the spread in those seven games. Before last week's loss to San Diego State, UCLA could usually be counted on for a solid performance in the Rose Bowl. This is an experienced team that Kelly brought back with more of his recruits. It's been incredible to see UCLA getting so many points when they were "only" getting 29 last year in Norman. They covered in that loss by a single point. Here they are at home, desperate, and should play better than we've seen the last two weeks, even though they are facing a superior side. Last year, the Bruins were getting 3 touchdowns at home against Top 10 Washington and only lost by seven points. Maybe its not that close here, but UCLA will stay within the number. Play on UCLA AAA |
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09-14-19 | San Diego State v. New Mexico State +16 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO STATE A week after a completely unimpressive 6-0 win over Weber State, San Diego State went to the Rose Bowl and upset UCLA 23-14 as 7.5-point underdogs. Explain that. It's tough to, though UCLA repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This week, the Aztecs will be the favorite, on the road. That's tricky for a team that scores so few points. It's a big number too. In its last 15 games, San Diego State has scored more than 24 points just four times and never more than 31. A big home game vs. Utah State next week promises to divert the Aztecs attention from this week's opponent. New Mexico State may not bring in a stellar resume, but after playing Washington State and Alabama to start its season, they definitely won't be intimidated. This is the home opener as well. The Aggies are a respectable 5-5 SU in Las Cruces the last two years. Even after last week's win, San Diego State is still just 4-8 its last 12 non-conference road games and that's straight up! Being -6 in turnovers vs. Alabama and Washington State did New Mexico State no favors. Let's assume they clean that up a bit and it's easy to see them being more competitive this week. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA |
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09-14-19 | North Texas v. California OVER 50.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the OVER For the second year in a row, Cal beat Washington and both times they did it with defense. Last year, it was a 12-10 win without an offensive TD. Last week, it was 20-19 on a last-second FG, a game that was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours because of weather. This defense, led by one of the better secondaries in the country, is quite clearly pretty good. But this week we feel it will be the offense's turn to show what it can do as it faces a North Texas defense that isn't the least bit good. The Mean Green gave up 52 in the bowl to end last year and lost some key players from that defense. That poor bowl performance looks to have carried over into 2019. The first game, they gave up 31 points and 456 yards to Abilene Christian. It got worse last week in a visit to SMU where they got torched for 49 points and 503 yards. Luckily, UNT does have an offense with a senior QB Mason Fine that can put points on the board. While it's the worst defense Cal has faced yet, it's also the best offense. Fine has guided the offense to 78 points in two games. He's thrown for nearly 8000 yards the last two seasons and is the school's all-time passing leader. This O/U has been bet down several points. While its understandable because of Cal's defensive effort last week, it's too low. Take the OVER AAA |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NAVY Navy had an uncharacteristic season last year. They went 3-10, its worst record since 2002. You have to think the Midshipmen are shoo-ins to improve in 2019 and they've already gotten the season off to a positive start with a 45-7 win over Holy Cross. In that game, they ran for 428 yards. But perhaps more promising with them throwing for 103 yards. That's nothing for most teams. But Navy, who has run the triple option for years, was last in the country at 72.8 passs yards/game last year. They've promised to add elements of a run-and-shoot offense this year. Ken Niumatalolo totally retooled his coaching staff this year. Having a bye last week is another nice early season edge. East Carolina is a program in transition with a first year coach in Mike Houston. The Pirates also won three games last year, just like Navy, but there's no real history here of winning, at least recently. They've won just three games each of the last three years. They've gone 1-16 SU on the road, so this line being so short is a definite surprise. ECU has covered just 6 of the last 22 times it has been an underdog. They were beaten 34-6 at NC State in the opener. A 48-9 win last week over Gardner-Webb means little in the grand scheme. They've lost by an average of 24.5 points/game the last two times they played Navy. Play on NAVY AAA |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana +17 | Top | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA So much for Urban Meyer. Ryan Day has Ohio State rolling at 2-0 with wins over Florida Atlantic (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0). The Buckeyes defense obviously played better than the second game and QB Justin Fields, a transfer from Georgia, has looked great. But consider the talent gap between the Buckeyes and those first two opponents. Now OSU opens Big 10 play. Sure, it's against Indiana, but it's also on the road. The Hoosiers were actually more competitive in last year's game at Ohio Stadium than the final score shows. They did cover as 26-point dogs (final score was 49-26), but it was only an eight-point game at half and IU led in the second quarter. The Hoosiers are also off a shutout, 52-0 over Eastern Illinois, and beat Ball State 34-24 in the opener. So their offense is humming too. Last week was Indiana's biggest margin of victory in 25 years. After missing out on a bowl the last two years, you know this team is going to be motivated. They've come close to pulling a major upset in Big 10 play the last few years, but never finished the job. They have lost 10 times by seven points or less the four years in Big 10 play. Every year, at least one of those losses was to a Top 20 team. We're taking the points, especially with new starting quarterback Michael Penix, a freshman, looking so good. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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09-13-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS Les Miles knew it would be a tall mountain to climb when he took on the job at Kansas. After all, this is a program that had suffered through a miserable 6-42 record the previous four years under David Beatty. Through two games, Miles is 1-1 in Lawrence. The Jayhawks first game saw them rally (after blowing a double-digit lead) to beat an FCS opponent, Indiana State. Last week, they were competitive, but ultimately lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina. Interestingly, KU scored on its opening drive, but never again. While there's obviously still a ton of room for growth here, no longer look for the Jayhawks to be the pushover they once were. Miles will have them playing hard. That's what makes this week's line at BC so interesting. The Eagles have scored more than anticipated the first two games. They hung 35 on Va Tech in a bit of an upset, then 45 more on Richmond last week. But the defense hasn't been as sound as it usually is. They allowed 442 yards vs. Va Tech, but got the benefit of five Hokies turnovers. Last week, even Richmond was able to attain 364 total yards. Yes, BC will be able to run the ball with the best of 'em. But so can Kansas with Pooka Williams Jr (99 yards last week) now back from suspension. With that BC defense, it's worth mentioning they have only three returning starters from last year. The Eagles have not been favored by more than three touchdown over a FBS team in the last five years. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State UNDER 47 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Minnesota and Fresno State met last year and it was a 21-14 win for the Golden Gophers at home. Fresno State would lose just one other time the rest of the season, to Boise State, and would later avenge that defeat in the Mt West Champ Game. Now they get a shot at avenging the other loss and this time they get the Gophers at home. We expect it once again to be a low-scoring affair. Minnesota barely gained 300 total yards in an unimpressive win over South Dakota State in the opener. Fresno State scored 23 in its loss to Southern Cal. The only games they scored fewer last season were the two losses and the win over Boise State. Minnesota has one of the better defenses they'll see all year and the Bulldogs have just three starters back on offense. The Under is 19-7 in Fresno's last 26 games overall. It's also now cashed in Minnesota's last five games. This should be a late-night slugfest. Play UNDER Minnesota-Fresno State AAA |
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09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OLE MISS Ole Miss takes on Arkansas here in the SEC opener for the both teams. The way each team chose to open its season was very different. Ole Miss went on the road to play a Memphis team that may be as good as any in the Group of Five. They lost, 15-10, but looked a lot better in the second half. Arkansas, fresh off a 2-10 year, opened against Portland State and only won 20-13. So despite winning, the Razorbacks were probably the less impressive side in Week 1. That's certainly affected our read on this Week 2 matchup, which takes place in Oxford and that's not a good deal for the Hogs. They have lost their last eight SEC openers by an average of three touchdowns. They didn't win a single time on the road last year and lost to Ole Miss 37-33 at home. They've lost eight of their last nine road games as well. Despite only gaining 173 yards of offense last week, the Rebels need not hang their heads as the defense pitched a shutout in the second half. The offense got the ball back down 13-10, but got hit with a safety and never saw the ball again. Don't expect them to take Arkansas lightly here. Before last year, the Rebels had lost four straight times to the Hogs and they've lost the last three times to them at home. Not this year. We believe in the new coordinators in Oxford (Rich Rodriguez, Mike MacIntyre) and they'll get their first win this week. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State -16.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISSISSIPPI STATE Mississippi State is expected to take a step back this season. They lost a lot of talent (to the NFL) from a defense that allowed just 13.2 points/game a year ago. It doesn't help that they have two holdovers currently suspended as well. Last week, they gave up 28 points to a Louisiana Lafayette team that quite frankly isn't very good. 28 points was the most allowed in any game by MSU last year. They allowed more than 20 just two times. But on the bright side, the defense forced five turnovers last week, the offense scored 38 points and the team won. We look for the defense to play a lot better this week against Southern Miss. Something to consider is that last week's game was played in New Orleans. Mississippi State is 11-3 ATS its last 14 games in Starkville. Southern Miss played a tune-up game against Alcorn State, but that will hardly have them ready for this step up in class. The Golden Eagles only could run for 96 yards on 31 carries and thus actually lost the time of possession battle. If they can't push around an FCS opponent, how are they going to get a surge against a SEC defense? The answer is "they won't." Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITT Ohio might not be a program you pay much attention to, but the Bobcats have achieved plenty of success in the 15 years Frank Solich has been here in Athens. Solich is actually the third longest tenured head coach in College Football, trailing only Gary Patterson (19 years) at TCU and Kirk Ferentz (21 years). The Bobcats have actually gotten some run as the team to come out of the Group of Five this year, but this week's game is one of two where they'll definitely be the underdog (the other is next week's game at Marshall). The key to this team is QB Nathan Rourke. The offense averaged 40 points/game with him at the helm last year. But only three other starters from that offense are back. Despite losing 30-14 to Virginia last week, Pitt is going to be an improved team this year. The Panthers led that game at halftime, only to get shutout in the 2nd half. It was a sloppy effort, one that saw them turn the ball over twice, get a punt blocked and not protect the QB well. We look for Pat Narduzzi's team to clean things up a bit as they can't afford to start the year with consecutive losses at home as there's game at Penn State looming next weekend. Ohio won't be able to pressure Pitt QB Pickett as much as Virginia did and thus it'll be a lot better day for the Panthers offense. Play on PITT AAA |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +19.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on RICE Wake Forest came into the year with some hype and made good on it to some degree by winning its season opener 38-35 over Utah State. The spread closed at -4.5, so the Demon Deacons ended up not covering the number and now they find themselves in even rarer territory. It's three scores that they are laying to the Rice Owls Friday night, on the road. Wake Forest has only been a road favorite three times for current coach Dave Clawson, who is in his sixth-year at Winston-Salem. Their ATS record in those games is 0-3. This will be the first time they are laying double digits on the road since the 2008 season opener against Baylor, who went into that game with a first year starter named Robert Griffin III. So it's been awhile. Rice obviously isn't very good, but they held their own last week against Army, losing only 14-7 as a 23-point underdog. They did give up 231 yards rushing, but that came on 56 carries. Wake Forest ran for 178 yards last week, on 58 carries, or just 3.1 yards per attempt. That's not very good. If Rice was able to defend Army's triple option, then they should stymie Wake Forest's ground game too and stay well within the number. Play on RICE AAA |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISVILLE Notre Dame is laying a lot of points in this season opener, but based on how they and Louisville performed in 2018, that's no surprise. The Fighting Irish finished 12-1, the only defeat coming at the hands of Clemson in the CFP. Louisville won just two games (lost 10!) with one of those coming against a FCS program. The other was by three over Western Kentucky, a game that they were favored to win by 17 points. Nine straight losses to end the season means there's a new coach on campus as Scott Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State. Perhaps the biggest indictment on Louisville's 2018 season is that they finished 1-11 ATS, the worst such mark in the country. They'll obviously be better in 2019 as Sattefield has a lot of returning talent to work with, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also at quarterback. Meanwhile, you should look for Notre Dame to slip a bit this year. They had a really lucky record in close games last year, going 7-0 in those decided by eight points or less. While we would be shocked if Louisville won this game, it is a hefty number the Cardinals are getting due mainly to last year's poor effort. But it's a new coach, a new season and we expect them to perform a lot better at the betting window. The Irish were never asked to lay more than 11 points away from South Bend last year. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN The lone battle of ranked teams this weekend pits #11 Oregon against #16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. Typically, these Pac 12 vs. SEC matchups have not gone well for the former conference and that's a trend we expect to continue Saturday night. Auburn seems like it's being slightly underrated coming into the year. It was just the opposite last year and they still opened by beating Washington in the first game. Washington was regarded as being the Pac 12's best last year and now that distinction probably falls on Oregon. But we're not convinced the Ducks are the 11th best team in the country, despite QB Justin Herbert and almost the rest of the offense returning. Consider this: Oregon has lost 13 of its last 18 games away from Autzen Stadium. Auburn is probably being underrated because of its five losses last year, but three of those were upsets and the other two against Georgia and Alabama. The season ended on a high note with a 63-14 demolition of Purdue in the bowl game. The Tigers have won six straight neutral site games vs. the Pac 12 including the 2010 National Championship vs. Oregon. Not as much on the line this time, but it'll be the same result with the SEC reigning surpreme. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA TECH The ACC didn't waste anytime getting the conference play going as this is one of three games on the slate this weekend. The conference is considered to be "Clemson and everyone else" this year and we saw that Thursday with the Tigers thumping Georgia Tech as expected. But Saturday's two games are expected to be a lot closer. This one, we think might not end up being so close. Virginia Tech is a team that should be better in 2019 after slipping to 6-7 last year. Boston College, not so much, even though they return both QB Brown and RB Dillon. The key to us in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. For his 23rd and final season as the defensive coordinator in Blacksburg, Bud Foster has 10 starters back from last year. After allowing 31 points/game last year, the Hokies defense should get back to business in 2019. On the flip side, Boston College has just three defensive starters back. This is a revenge game for VT as they lost 31-21 last year to the Eagles. Boston College scored 28 unanswered points to end the game. ACC road openers have gone well for the Hokies as they've won 13 of their past 15 as well as three consecutive season openers. The road team is actually on a 4-1 run in this rivalry. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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08-31-19 | Duke v. Alabama UNDER 58 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Alabama plays Duke Saturday afternoon in Atlanta as part of the Chic Fil-A Classic. We do not expect the game to be close, nor do the oddsmakers, but we're not in the business of laying this many points in a season opener either. With Duke breaking in a new starting QB, they are really going to struggle to score points here. Making matters more challenging is that the Blue Devils lost a starting wide receiver (Jake Bobo) to injury three weeks ago. So expect very few points to be scored on the Duke side against what is still one of the best defenses in College Football. As for the other side, Alabama scored at will (until running into Clemson in the Championship Game) last season, but often called off the dogs late when the game got out of hand. We can see a similar situation arising here, which obviously helps when holding an Under ticket. Also, Duke does have eight of last year's starters on defense back, plus a former All-ACC CB (Mark Gilbert) that missed virtually all of last season. "I'm more excited about this defense than any defense we've had in the 12 seasons," head coach David Cutcliffe said. That defense won't be enough to keep Duke in this one, but this will be a lower-scoring affair than anticipated. Play UNDER Duke-Alabama AAA |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon State +16 | Top | 52-36 | Push | 0 | 657 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON STATE Oregon State isn't exactly well-regarded, so the fact they are taking more than two touchdowns from Oklahoma State can't be too surprising. But this could be the year the Beavers at least make some sort of "mini-leap" forward after winning a total of just three games the previous two seasons. This is the second season for coach Smith in Corvallis. The Beavers are one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country coming into 2019. Not that we think Oregon State wins here, but OK State probably isn't as good as they're being made out to be. The Cowboys slipped to seven wins in 2018 as they were upset five different times. Laying this many to a Power 5 opponent from a different conference seems tricky. In fact, the last time OK State traveled to face a Pac 12 team was 2012 and they lost 59-38 at Arizona. Again, there are probably going to be a lot of points scored in this game. OK State's defensive line is a concern, so that's something the Beaver offense should take full advantage of. The Cowboys offense has no experience at QB with a freshman (Spencer Sanders) likely starting, on the road no less. Jake Luton is back in his second year starting for Oregon State. This game will end up being close. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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08-29-19 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson UNDER 61 | Top | 14-52 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER It might be unheard of to lay this many points in a season opener against a conference opponent. But if ever there were a time for it, it would be here with #1 Clemson facing Georgia Tech. The Tigers are defending National Champions and will be favored by double digits in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets are going through a transition. They're going from the triple option to a more pro scheme, run by 1st year coach Geoff Collins. Expect growing pains and for Ga Tech to be the worst team in the ACC this year. Clemson beat Ga Tech by 28 last year and that was in Atlanta with Kelly Bryant at quarterback against a team running the triple option. Now its Trevor Lawrence in at QB for Clemson and a Ga Tech offense with pieces fit for a different scheme. The Yellow Jackets simply aren't going to score many points here and with the game in little doubt in the 4th quarter, expect Dabo Swinney to call his dogs (or Tigers as it may be) off. Play UNDER Georgia Tech-Clemson AAA |
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08-29-19 | UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -115 | 629 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on UCLA You may be surprised by how short this line is, not to mention the way it has been bet, but don't be. Yes, UCLA won just three games in year one under Chip Kelly. But Kelly can take solace in the job his colleague Luke Fickell did last year with Cincinnati, taking them from 4 to 11 wins. No one saw that coming from the Bearcats and while they look good on paper entering 2019, UCLA has the most returning starters in the country (19) and should be a whole lot better in Kelly's 2nd year. The Bruins have had problems winning away from the Rose Bowl in recent season, but look for that to change this year. Something to keep in mind is that these teams opened last season against one another as well. Cincinnati won 26-17, as a 14-point underdog. A couple key differences here for UCLA is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the starting QB (wasn't the case last year) and the emergence of RB Joshua Kelley. Look for the Bruins to put up a lot more points in this year's meeting. Similarly, their defense is better than it was a year ago now that 10 starters are back. Cincinnati's offensive line is down two starters from last season. The Bearcats have failed to cover six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of three points or less. Play on UCLA AAA |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 50.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 509 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Florida had a big jump in wins under Dan Mullen, going from 4 to 10 in his debut year in Gainesville. Mullen had some fortuitous things go his way though, such as inheriting 19 starters from the Jim McElwain regime and a +12 turnover margin. This year's Gators look like they'll be stronger on the defensive side of the ball. The same holds true for the opening week opponent, Miami, who sees Manny Diaz making the jump from defensive coordinator to head coach, replacing the retired Mark Richt. The Hurricanes only gave up 19.5 points/game last year as it is and didn't allow more than 21 in any of Diaz's three years here as the defensive coordinator. Florida enters #8 in the country. Miami is breaking in a new starter at QB with transfer Tate Martell coming over from Ohio State. This isn't an easy first start. Mullen engineered a tremendous offensive turnaround in his first year with the Gators jumping 86 spots in points/game, the second largest jump ever in FBS. Even with QB Franks back, we're not confident they match last year's number (just five offensive starters return). The Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight neutral site games and 6-0-1 in the last seven games overall. Play UNDER Florida-Miami AAA |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
These are easily the two best teams in the country and I think the gap between the two isn't nearly as large as the oddsmakers seem to, if it even exists at all. 14-0 Clemson has been unstoppable since Trevor Lawrence took over as the quarterback. They have all nine games by at least three touchdowns, including a 30-3 beatdown of Notre Dame in the semifinal. Sound familiar? Alabama (14-0) hasn't lost a game since making its own famous QB change, to Tua Tagovailoa, in last year's National Championship Game. That was of course the game AFTER the Crimson Tide last faced Clemson, a 24-6 win. Expect this one to be along the lines of the two Championship Games these teams played in 2016 and 2017. This Clemson team is a lot better than last year, not only because of Lawrence, but the defense as well. The Tigers are only giving up 12.9 points per game, the fewest in the nation. They also allow just 274.7 yards per game. That's 93 on the ground and only 182 through the air. Not saying they'll hold Bama to those totals, but Clemson's defense isn't about to let this turn into a blowout. This game should be much closer to a pick 'em. Play on CLEMSON |
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01-05-19 | Eastern Washington v. North Dakota State OVER 60.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State. The FCS Championship Game features a matchup of 12-2 Eastern Washington and 14-0 North Dakota State. The Bison are prohibitive favorites here and for very good reason; they'll be gunning for a record-tying seventh National Championship. Just like Alabama has owned the FBS under Nick Saban, NDSU has owned this level with all six championship wins coming since 2011. I don't think there's much value to be had playing the pointspread, but I do like the total as this should be a high-scoring affair at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX. North Dakota State is a machine running the football as South Dakota State found out in the semifinals three weeks ago. The Bison ran for 439 yards in that game and now face a EWU defense that is only so-so against the run and may even have its starting nose tackle. There were only three games this year where the Bison did not score 34 points. They've scored at least 44 four times in the last five games. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington just put up 50 in its semifinal win over Maine. It was the sixth time this year they scored at least 48 points in a game. Will they get that many here? Probably not, but playing catchup, they'll score enough to help get this one past the number. Play the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State AAA |
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01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Under in Texas-Georgia #15 Texas (9-4) meets #5 Georgia (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl, one of this year's better bowl matchups. I'm expecting a low-scoring game tonight in NOLA. Without a doubt, Georgia is going to be the best defense that the Longhorns will have faced all year. The Bulldogs allow just 18.2 points per game. Yes, they'll be missing their top corner (declared for NFL Draft) and coordinator Mel Tucker took the head coaching job at Colorado. But it's not like the Horns have the most explosive offense. On the other side, the Texas defense has had to deal with some very high-powered offenses this year in the Big 12. So they won't be intimidated here. The Under is 48-23 in the Longhorns last 71 games overall, including 19-7 the L26 games on field turf. They held Oklahoma below its season scoring average in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia has gone Under in 7 of its last 10 bowl games. Play TEXAS-GEORGIA UNDER AAA |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Washington in the Rose Bowl. I'll be taking the points with Washington in the Rose Bowl as they are the better defensive team and an all-around undervalued side. While Ohio State (12-1) has the better won-loss record (Washington 10-3), the Huskies' three losses were all close games and they could have won all of them. They were basically three plays away from being unbeaten. While a lot of focus here is on how the Buckeyes finished their regular season (destroyed rival Michigan), Washington was pretty impressive in its own right, holding Washington State and Utah to just 18 total points. The Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country (15.5 PPG allowed), so that will keep them in this game. With this being Urban Meyer's final game patrolling the sidelines, everyone is loading up pn the Buckeyes, but that's inflated the number. Washington was an underdog only twice this year, vs. Auburn and at Washington State. They won in Pullman and lost to Auburn by only five, a game they easily could have won. Play WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* WINNER on Iowa in the Outback Bowl. In my eyes, this Outback Bowl matchup of 8-4 Iowa and 8-4 Mississippi State pits two very underrated teams against one another. But in the end, I feel the favorite's inability to score consistently will cost them here, laying so many points. The Iowa defense gives up just 17.4 points per game. Mississippi State gives up the fewest in the country (12.0), so it should be a low-scoring game all around. With points likely at a premium in a matchup such as this, the underdog just seems like the right move. There were four times this year that Miss State was held under 10 points. Most of the Bulldogs dominant performances were against non-bowl teams. Of Iowa's four losses, three were by six points or fewer and the other (28-17 vs. Wisconsin) saw them give up two touchdowns in the final minute. Miss State was generally dominated in its losses. Oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a low-scoring game and taking points in the way to go. Play IOWA. AAA |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina v. Virginia OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER South Carolina/Virginia. Virginia opened the year 6-2, but it finished 7-5. The Cavaliers can erase the stink of “what could have been” with a big victory today though and we’re fully expecting them to push the pace from start to finish. In their final regular season loss, QB Bryce Perkins had 259 passing yards and three TD’s, along with 112 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are coming off a 7-5 season and they hold on for an easy win over Akron in their finale. Note that the Cavs have seen the total go OVER the number in their last five neutral site games, while the Gamecocks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last nine when playing with three weeks or more rest on a neutral field. This number is a little high, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse -1 v. West Virginia | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Syracuse. We think WVU goes through the motions today. The Mountaineers ended their regular season on a two-game losing streak. Syracuse is 9-3 overall and it’s 5-1 in its last six. The Orange have scored at least 40 points in each of their last five victories with extra time off to prepare, we think Syracuse is the “hungrier” team here. WVU enters without starting QB Will Grier, who skips the bowl to enter the NFL draft. Backup Jack Allison has only attempted ten passes in 2018. Note that WVU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as well, while Syracuse is 4-1-1 ATS In its last six non-conference games. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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12-27-18 | Duke v. Temple OVER 54 | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Duke/Temple. Temple was 8-4 on the year, including 7-1 in AAC play, while Duke went 7-5, and 3-5 in ACC action. The Owls come in on top form having won three straight, outscoring their opposition 143-73 in those games. Overall Temple averages 35.6 PPG and it allows 24.7. Duke will be hungry here to get back into the winners circle after back-to-back “duds” to finish the season, falling 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 at home to Wake Forest. The defense has been a problem for the Blue Devils, allowing 504 yards and 43 points per game average over its final three games. Note that Duke has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four non-conference games already this year, while Temple has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last ten played on “turf.” This number is low; play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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12-26-18 | TCU +1 v. California | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on TCU. These teams are evenly matched as far as the points per game (Cal averages 22.8 PPG, and TCU averages 24.4) and in points allowed (Cal concedes 21.2 and TCU allows 24.4). However, TCU comes in with considerable momentum and we think it’ll carry over here after a 31-24 home win over Oklahoma State pushed them to eligibility. Cal on the other hand hand won four of five before a date with Standford in its finale, a game which saw it fall 10-6. Note that TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games following a win in which it scored 30 or more points in and also earned the cover, while Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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12-22-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Hawaii UNDER 61.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER between Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. Hawaii had a great year, finishing 8-5, while Louisiana Tech was 7-5. Louisiana Tech backed its way into the bowl season with back-to-back losses to Southern Miss and WKU, while Hawaii won its final two games of the year over UNLV and SDSU. The Bulldogs will be leaning heavily on their run game while on offense to keep the Warriors offense off the field of play. The Warriors averaged 32.1 PPG, but Louisiana Tech allowed just 23.8. The longer time off throws a “monkey wrench” into the Warriors offensive chemistry in our opinion. Note as well that LT has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five already this year as a road underdog, while Hawaii has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-21-18 | BYU -12 v. Western Michigan | Top | 49-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on BYU. Both teams were forced to change up their starting QB’s half way through the season. We think that BYU’s tough defensive play though will prove to be the difference today. Kaleb Eleby got the 28-21 win over NIU in the Broncos regular season finale, but he’ll have his handful today with a Cougars’ defense which allowed just 21.7 PPG, ranked in the top 20 in the country. BYU is still 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while WMU is just already 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the point; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER between Marshall/USF. I think the extra time off for USF, which opened the season 7-0, but which finished 0-5, will do it good here. The Bulls will have had time to game-plan and to get a handle on their QB situation (with starter Blake Barnett a question mark still.) Marshall finished 8-4 and is the more complete team on both sides of the ball. We’re expecting a wide open affair between these two hungry teams. Note as well that Marshall has seen the total go OVER the number in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six as an underdog. This number is a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State UNDER 54 | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Ohio and SDSU. Both teams rely on a strong run game while on offense. The Bobcats’ entire offensive identity revolves around star RB AJ Oullette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TD’s this season. SDSU is ranked fourth nationally in stopping the run, but Ohio will have little choice here. The Aztecs were hampered by injury this year, but RB Juwan Washington is back to play in this one and he’ll be out to make a statement in our opinion. Note as well that Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after two or more SU wins, while SDSU has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four vs. teams with winning records. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. UAB | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Northern Illinois. With two weeks off to prepare, we think the NIU Huskies will keep this one close. NIU averages only 20.7 PPG, but the Huskies make up for it on the other end of the field by allowing just 21.5. UAB averages 29.3 PPG and it allows 17.3. We’d argue though that the Huskies face tougher competition in the MAC. UAB QB AJ Erdely is questionable for this one as well and if he can’t go, then Tyler Johnston III will get the call. Regardless, it’s not an ideal situation for the Blazers. Note that the Huskies are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year, while UAB is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three vs. the MAC. Grab the points, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern OVER 47.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Georgia Southern/EMU. EMU finished 7-5, but with three straight victories to end the season. Georgia Southern also comes in with a ton of momentum after finishing 9-3 and back-to-back winver over Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Last week Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts and RB Wesley Fields would combined for 226 rushing yards and two TD’s. EMU’ QB Tyler Wiegers finished with 1,887 passing yards and an 11/3 TD/INT. Note though that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four already this year after two or more SU wins, while Georgia Southern has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. Look for each of the Eagles to open up the playbook and for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +9 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas. Outright upset? Probably not, but we think the Mean Green will keep this one interesting late. UNT was 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the C-USA, while Utah State went 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Mountain West. UNT averages 36.4 PPG and it allows only 21.8. Utah State averages 47.2 PPG and it allows 23. On paper, this one favors Utah State, but with the extra time off to prepare and with nothing to lose, we expect the Mean Green to take this one down to the wire. Note as well that Utah State is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records, while UNT is still 10-3 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Grab the points; play on NORTH TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California UNDER 48.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 119 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between Stanford/Cal. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Stanford has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of its last 27 as a favorite, while Cal has seen the total go UNDER in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight conference games and in four of five already this season after playing a game at home. The bottom line: The Stanford Axe is at stake. This game was supposed to be played in mid November, but the wildfires in California postponed it till now. Look for the offenses to come out a little flat. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | Top | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. The bottom line: Texas already beat Oklahoma this year. The Longhorns have the better defense and while we’re not calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a tight battle. Grab the points, play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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11-30-18 | Utah v. Washington OVER 43 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 105 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Utah/Washington. This is the Pac 12 Championship Game from Golden State. Utah posted a 35-27 come from behind win over BYU last Saturday, while Washington earned its way to the Championship by posting a 28-15 road win over WSU on Friday. The Huskies won 21-7 over Utah on the road in mid September, but we’re expecting a much more wide open and higher-scoring affair this weekend. Utah averages 30.8 PPG and it allows 19.2, while Washington averages 28 PPG, while allowing just 16.5. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but we still think this number is low, as note that Utah has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six after a road win of ten points or more. This number is a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 59-7 | Win | 100 | 136 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a loss vs. a conference rival and still 10-5 ATS in its last 15 on eh road, while Duke is just 2-4 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year. The bottom line: Duke’s already punched its ticket to a bowl sitting at 7-4, but at 5-6, the Demon Deacons have one last shot. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +4 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 135 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Michigan is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 off a win vs. a conference rival and only 1-3 ATS on the road this season, while Ohio State is 3-1 ATS in its last four at home. The bottom line: Ohio State has been terrible overall against the spread this year, but it’s always had Michigan’s number, coming into this one having won 11 straight in the series. The Buckeyes’ offense is better and its defense is just as good. At home, we love OHIO STATE to pull off the slight upset. That said, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -18 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 115 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Cincinnati. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that ECU is a terrible 3-11 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records and 3-1 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The bottom line: After last week’s humbling loss to UCF, look for the BEARCATS to lay the hammer down from start to finish in their final regular season game at home; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas +21 v. Missouri | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -109 | 114 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arkansas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this year already off a loss vs. a conference rival and 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog, while Missouri is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival and only 2-4 ATS this season vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: We’re not calling for an outright upset, but we think the ARKANSAS offense can keep the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +10 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASSACRE on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Mississippi State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 9.5 to 21 points range and only 3-6 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 9.5 to 14 points range. The bottom line: OLE MISS won’t be going down without a fight today, as it still needs a victory to become eligible; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan. Both teams come in off losses, with the Huskies falling at home to NIU and WMU falling to Ball State 35-31. The Huskies six-game win streak was snapped and I think they’ll stumble here as well. WMU is without QB Jon Wassink the last three games and the result has been three straight losses. But the team has slowly been making adjustments and a date at home in its season finale is just what the doctor ordered for back Kaleb Eleby in our opinion. Note as well that NIU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WMU is still 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 140 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Virginia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia is already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 3-1 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records, while Georgia Tech is already just 2-3 ATS at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. We think the CAVALIERS’ defense keeps the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -108 | 137 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU wins and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, while Wake Forest is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Look for desperate WAKE FOREST to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on New Mexico. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Boise State is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing a conference game and just 6-11 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New Mexico is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. We think Boise gets caught looking past its lowly but hungry home opponent. Grab the points, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 99 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on North Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that FAU is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while UNT is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home fav of three points or less. The bottom line: FAU comes in off a nice win and UNT enters off an upset loss. Look for the high-flying MEAN GREEN to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +6.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami Ohio. After six straight wins, we think NIU comes up short here. Miami Ohio is the “hungrier” team here, as it still sits two games behind in the East race. The Redhawks though come in off a big win over Ohio last week and there’s no reason not to think that the team can’t carry that momentum over here as well. It sets up well from a situational stand point for an outright upset, but also note that MIAMI OHIO is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +8 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Ball State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that WMU is a horrible 9-12 ATS in its last 21 following a conference game (including just 1-4 ATS this year), while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: WMU is free falling after QB Jon Wassink went down. BALL STATE keeps this one competitive at home. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Oregon State v. Stanford -22.5 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 144 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Oregon State is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Wrong time, wrong place for Oregon State. Stanford comes in on a losing streak and desperate for victory. The situation and the numbers both point to STANFORD as the correct call in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 22-52 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia Tech is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Pittsburgh is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU wins and only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite. The bottom line: Virginia Tech is the more desperate team after its recent slide and we haven’t counted the Hokies out yet. Look for the visitors to go down fighting and grab the points; play on VIRGINIA TECH. AAA Sports |
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11-09-18 | Louisville v. Syracuse UNDER 69.5 | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Louisville/Syracuse. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats: As note that Louisville has seen the total go UNDER the number i eight of its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while Syracuse has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last seven off a win against a conference rival and in all six games that it’s played in of late after two or more consecutive SU wins. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +15 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Wake Forest. Wake Forest lost its starting QB and it’s struggled against the better competition, but it desperately needs a victory and after NC State broke a two-game slide with a win last week at home, we think the Wolfpack come in a tiny bit complacent here. Note that Wake has been “money in the bank” for bettors in this spot as well by going 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing on six or less days rest. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio. Ohio’s won four straight and it comes in off a big blowout victory as an underdog over WMU, but Miami Ohio plays with revenge and it’s still trying desperately to become bowl eligible. After two straight big wins, we absolutely believe the Bobcats have a letdown mentally here. Note that MIAMI OHIO is already 4-1 ATS against the conference this season, while Ohio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite. AAA Sports |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +22.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Kent State. We think the first place Bulls look past the lowly Kent State Golden Flashes tonight. Kent enters off a 35-28 road win over Bowling Green, while Buffalo pulled away for a 52-41 home win over Miami Ohio in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Kent after the Bulls posted the 27-13 road win last year. The Golden Flashes are averaging 24.3 PPG and allowing 34.2, while the Bulls are averaging 34.9 and allowing 24.3. But the Golden Flashes looked solid last week and we think they carry that momentum over here (QB Woody Barrett had two TD passes and also rushed for 77 yards.) Note that KENT STATE is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog on the 21.5 to 31 points range, while Buffalo is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a fav in the same points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-03-18 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 46.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 61 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Stanford/Washington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the posted number in nine of its last 14 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49. The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams and we’re expecting a war until the end. Look for this one to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -17 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 9-16 ATS in is last 16 games played on turf, while Ohio State is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks rest. The bottom line: The Buckeyes chances for a playoff spot are slim, but a top level bowl is still in their sites with a sweep of the season. Look for OHIO STATE to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence. AAA Sports |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -7 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -114 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia. We think the Panthers will stumble here after their big shootout win over the Blue Devils last weekend. The Cavaliers have been rolling along and have won three straight and we have a hard time seeing the Panthers’ offense getting much going tonight against Virginia’s elite defensive unit. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Cavs, as note that Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival, while Virginia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 3-1 ATS in its last four off a win against a conference rival. Lay the points, play on VIRGINIA. AAA Sports |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida -10 | Top | 40-52 | Win | 100 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Temple is just 3-4 ATS in its last seen as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while UCF is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The bottom line: UCF is the highest scoring team in the nation and we have a hard time seeing the Owls, as good as they’re playing right now, keeping pace in this important game. Lay the points, play on CENTRAL FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 62 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the UNDER between Ball State and Toledo. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Ball State has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last three as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Toledo has seen the total go UNDER in nine of 14 off a win against a conference rival. The bottom line: Both team’s starting QB’s went out with injury last week as well. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-30-18 | Kent State -1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Kent State. Two horrible teams, but Kent State has the better defense and we think that’ll be the difference maker in the end. Kent State enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron, while Bowling Green comes in off a 49-14 road loss at Ohio. Note that this is a “revenge” game for Kent after the Falcons destroyed it at home 44-16 last year. KSU is averaging 23 PPG and allowing 35. Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG and allowing 47.8. The Green Falcons have looked very bad defensively of late as well, allowing an average of 51.4 PPG over their last four. Note that Bowling Green is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 following an ATS loss, while KSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. Play on KENT STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -3 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Stanford. WSU has so far gone undefeated against the spread this season, but we think that string comes to an end here against a Stanford team which is tied with its opponent today, a half game behind Washington for the division lead. It’s a classic contrast of styles, with Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense for WSU, against Stanford’s more traditional “ground and pound” offense led by RB Bryce Love. Despite all of its “ATS” success this seasonal note that WSU is still only 2-4 ATS in its last six games played on a grass field and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog of three points or less, while Stanford is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records and already 3-1 ATS this season vs. conference opponents. Home field is an advantage at this time of year. Lay the points, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
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10-27-18 | NC State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. These are two talented teams which are clearly very evenly matched. We think that the “revenge factor” comes into play here after the Wolfpack earned the 33-25 home win in the series last year. NC State has only lost one game, but that setback came last weekend in a humbling 41-7 road loss in Clemson. Now NC State is being asked to bring that same energy on the road again against the revenge minded Orange, who broke a two-game slide with a much needed 40-37 double OT win over North Carolina last week. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Orange, but also note that NC State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a loss against a conference rival, while Syracuse is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 against schools with winning records and 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points, play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. We think this is a great overall “situational” play. Utah has won five in a row and it’ll become bowl eligible with a victory today, but the Utes still have plans to win the Pac 12 conference at the end of the year. But this sets up as a potential “trap” against the lowly Bruins, who come in looking much better after a disastrous start to the campaign, having won two straight. The Utes are clearly the better team, but the external factors are working against them today. UCLA will essentially have to “win out” to become eligible and while the odds are against it, it’ll be pulling out all the stops today in trying to keep its recent surge rolling. Note as well that Utah is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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10-25-18 | Ball State v. Ohio OVER 64 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Ball State and Ohio. In 2015 Ohio won this matchup 48-31. We expect a similar final combined score here as well. Ball State is 2-2 in league action after a 42-20 setback to EMU last week, while Ohio is now 2-1 in MAC play after its 49-14 win over Bowling Green at home in its latest action. The Cardinals are ranked 67th in the country in points allowed and 97th in scoring with 25 PPG average. The Bobcats are averaging 36.3 PPG and they’re allowing 31. Ball State is going to have its opportunities to move the ball today against an Ohio team which will be happy to push the pace. Interesting to note that Ball State has seen the total go OVER in its last four games it’s played on a “Thursday night,” while Ohio has seen the total go OVER in its last two as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama +13 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on South Alabama. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while South Alabama is 5-2 ATS as an underdog in the same points range. The bottom line: Troy lost starting QB Caleb Barker to injury and last week the Trojans fell to lowly Liberty. South Alabama QB Evan Orth has a strong 7:3 TD:INT and we think he’ll help keep his team in this one late; play on SOUTH ALABAMA. AAA Sports |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV +10.5 | Top | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on UNLV. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Air Force is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six when playing against a team with a losing record, while UNLV is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: UNLV’s offense is the difference maker here. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State +14.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-51 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Georgia State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Georgia State is interestingly 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October and perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Arkansas State is 0-4 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival and 0-3 ATS at home already. The bottom line: Both teams have been horrible, but Georgia State in particular has struggled. That said, Arkansas State’s offense has been terrible as well and we think the hungry visitors will keep it interesting late. Grab the points, play on GEORGIA STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-13-18 | Colorado +7.5 v. USC | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Colorado. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Colorado is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road and interestingly 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in games played in Week 5 through 9, while USC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records. The bottom line: The Buffs are 5-0 and undefeated and they enter off their bye week. USC has looked susceptible at times already this season. We’re expecting a very tight battle, one which will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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10-13-18 | New Mexico v. Colorado State UNDER 66 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between New Mexico and Colorado State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that New Mexico has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after a conference game, while Colorado State has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 14 as an underdog (including in all three games it’s been a dog in this season.) The bottom line: The numbers and overall situation that each finds itself in does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one. AAA Sports |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER Air Force/SDSU. These are two decent defenses going up against two offenses which rely on the run to set up the pass. All of that said though, we’re expecting a higher-scoring shootout between these two normally lower-scoring schools. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Note though Air Force has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 13 on the road and in six of its last ten as an underdog, while SDUS has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a conference rival and in eight of its last 13 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Texas State. Georgia Southern is the better team and it’s looking for a third straight victory against lowly Texas State, but we think the home side will keep it interesting against an Eagles team which we predict will get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Georgia Souther is averaging just 30.8 PPG, so Texas State is going to have its opportunities to match pace here. Keep your eyes on Bobcats’ QB Tyler Vitt, who has a 3:2 TD:INT. Texas State’s weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but as mentioned above, the unit definitely catches a break here facing the Eagles somewhat less than spectacular offense. Note as well that Georgia Southern is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive wins and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Texas State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records. Grab the points, play on TEXAS STATE. AAA Sports |
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