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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU. BYU plays with revenge here after falling 40-24 to Utah State on the road last year. Utah State has been great so far, averaging 51.5 points and allowing 23.8. The numbers are a little skewed because of the competition. BYU comes in off a loss to Washington, but overall the Cougars have made significant strides, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they’re allowing just 20.6 PPG (ranked 35th). We think this sets up as a trap for Utah State, which is still a poor 1-7 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, wile BYU is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine against the Mountain West Conference. Lay the points as BYU finds a way to get the job done at home. AAA Sports |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State +17 v. Troy | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 97 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State. This is a revenge game for Georgia State after it fell 34-10 in this game at home last year. The Panthers enter with plenty of momentum though off a 46-14 win over UL Monroe. They had 308 yards on the ground and they’re now ranked ninth in the nation in rushing. Troy is ranked 82nd in the nation in defending the pass, so we think the visitors will have their opportunities today. Troy’s been rolling behind Kaleb Baker, who has completed 71.6 percent of his passes, but we think this sets up as a classic “trap” game for the Trojans. Note as well that Troy is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Georgia State is interestingly 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the point, play on GEORGIA STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on UCLA. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in is last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three following its bye-week. The bottom line: UCLA is desperate and its down men, but head coach Chip Kelly will have his team ready to compete in our opinion. They catch Colorado at a great time out of its bye-week. Grab the points and expect a nail-biter. Play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -18 | Top | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 81 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Florida. Miami Florida roared out to a 31-3 lead over FIU last week and then it took the foot of the gas and held on for the convincing 31-17 victory. UNC opened the year 1-2, but it salvaged its season with a big 38-35 win over Pitt at home last Saturday. Can anyone say letdown spot? In our opinion, this one sets up as a trap for UNC. The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted we feel. The Tar Heels are averaging 24.7 PPG and allowing 33.3, while Miami Florida is averaging 43.5 PPG and allowing 18.5. Note that the Hurricanes are 21-15 ATS in their last 26 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Lay the points and expect a rout; play on MIAMI FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 53 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between BC and Wake Forest. Both teams are 2-0, blowing out their weak non-conference opponents. Each team features a balanced offensive attack and both have above-average defensive units. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics. As note that BC has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in ten of its last 16 against conference opponents, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and in nine of its last 14 against the conference. The final summary: The situation and the numbers point to the UNDER as the savvy call here. AAA Sports |
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09-08-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Purdue -14.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. EMU smashed Monmouth 51-17 last week and it comes in contented, knowing it faces a stiff challenge today. Purdue though fell 31-27 at home to Northwestern as a favorite last week, so it’ll be risking life and limb today to punch its first one into the win column. An 0-2 start to the year, with consecutive setbacks at home would be disastrous for a Boilermakers’ team with big expectations. With a much more “winnable” and important conference matchup at Buffalo next week, would anyone fault the Eagles “looking ahead” here either. But Clearly the Boilermakers don’t have that same luxury. They’ll be looking to take out their frustrations on someone and because of that, we’re expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to roll this score up as much as possible. Note that Purdue is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference game and 8-2 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while EMU is just 4-17 ATS in its last 21 after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game. With the Bulls up next, we look for the visitors to pack up their tents early in this one. Lay the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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09-08-18 | Arizona +4.5 v. Houston | Top | 18-45 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Arizona. This is a revenge game for Arizona after Houston won 19-16 on the road last year. The Wildcats are hungry after falling 28-23 at home to BYU, while the Cougars come in complacent after their 45-27 him win over Rice. Kevin Sumlin came up short in his first game as head coach for the Wildcats, but with 16 starters returning from last year’s squad that went 7-6 and lost to Purdue 38-35 in their bowl game, we think they have a very real shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright. Arizona had an unstoppable offense last year that put up over 41 PPG and with seven starters back on that side of the ball, including QB Khalil Tate, we’re expecting a much more efficient effort from the unit in Week 2. Houston was 7-5 last year and it lost to Fresno State its Bowl game. Houston has five starters back on offense and they’d anchor a unit which put up 581 yards of offense against Rice. QB D’Eriq King had 320 yards and three TD’s. We think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, we’re grabbing the points. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +21.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on SMU. We think the improved home side can catch the complacent high-powered Horned Frogs a little complacent here. TCU smashed Southern 55-7 last week and it has to be feeling pretty good about itself. TCU QB Shawn Robinson had an easy time of it last week, going for 182 yards and three TD’s. Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it allowed only 19 PPG. Clearly the Horned Frogs are an elite squad, we simply feel that the visitors will get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. SMU feel 46-23 on the road to North Texas. QB Ben Hicks started slowly and put up some numbers in garbage time, but the final stat line was decent with 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. Last year he had 3,500 yards passing and a sharp 33:12 TD:INT. SMU looked impotent defensively last week and it’s going to have its hands full in this one as well, but after going up big early, we look for the Horned Frogs to take the foot off the gas. We like SMU to cover easily with this large spread. AAA Sports |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 55 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -112 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U MASSACRE on the OVER between VT and FSU. VT and FSU both finished with winning records in the ACC, but each lost its bowl game last year. The Hokies averaged 28.2 points and allowed only 14.8. Note though that the entire unit that posted those unreal numbers from last season is gone. Duplicating those numbers in 2018/19 will be impossible for VT. The offense looks primed for a big showing though with the return of QB Josh Jackson, who had nearly 3,000 yards passing and 325 rushing last year. FSU averaged 27.8 PPG and it allowed 21.2. The defense returns most of its starters, as does the offense, including Deondre Francois under center. We believe each team takes a step back defensively this year; play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. LSU | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Miami Florida. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on common sense, as note that Miami Florida returns it’s starting QB and most of its key pieces on offense. It’s defense is also stacked and should be only better this season. LSU though has a change at QB this year and we think that fact alone will be the difference here in Week 1. We’re expecting an absolute blowout from start to finish. Lay the points, play on MIAMI FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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09-01-18 | BYU v. Arizona -11.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -106 | 303 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona. BYU was 4-9 last year. Six new assistants were hired and another rebuilding year is expected for the Cougars. BYU QB Tanner Magnum is back, but he’s played in just 13 games over the last two years due to injury. Arizona has a Heisman hopeful in QB Khalil Tate who finished with 1,591 passing yards, 1,441 rushing while being responsible for 26 TD’s himself. The defense was a weak point last year, but it returns nine starters this season. We think the combination of Tate and the Wildcats’ improvement on defense will prove to be too much for BYU to overcome. Lay the points, play on Arizona. AAA Sports |
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08-31-18 | San Diego State +14.5 v. Stanford | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 755 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego State. We like the Aztecs to keep this one closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. SDSU went 10-2 last year with an entirely new offensive line. Now that line returns in full much more experienced. Stanford had a great regular season, but stumbled in its final two games, including a heartbreaking 39-37 loss in the Fiesta Bowl to TCU. Stanford has dynamic RB Bryce Love, who will surely have a huge game here, but SDSU now has the fire-power to match pace against a Cardinal defense with a small question mark coming into the new season. We’re grabbing the points, play on SAN DIEGO STATE. AAA Sports |
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08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-48 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between New Mexico State and Minnesota. New Mexico State lost 29-7 in its home opener this past weekend and we think it’ll have issues scoring here as well. Minnesota will look to take advantage as it looks to better it’s 5-7 record from last year. The Aggies just looked plain terrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Matt Romero was 16 of 27 for 140 yards and a TD, while the run game posted -9 yards. The defense was a bright spot for New Mexico though and the unit should continue to progress with seven returning starters. The Golden Gophers are ranked sixth in the Big Ten. The QB position is in a bit of an upheaval for Minnesota though, as freshman walk-on Zack Annexstad has been named the starter shockingly. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Rodney Smith all year, as he had 977 rushing yards last season. Overall Minnesota struggled offensively though with an average of just 22.1 PPG. While the offense did indeed struggle, the defense was decent and it will be a strength of a team in 2018/19 as well with several starters returning (note that the Gophers gave up just 22.8 PPG last season). This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State -14 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -106 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Colorado State. It’s a conference match-up on Saturday night between Hawaii and Colorado State. The Rams were 7-6 last year, while Hawaii went 3-9. Last year Colorado State hammered the Warriors 51-21 in Hawaii. Hawaii has just nine starters back from a 3-9 year and it draws another tough matchup on opening night on the road. Last year Hawaii averaged 22.8 PPG, but with so much turnover on offense, we have a hard time seeing the Warriors mustering much of an attack tonight. It’s going to be a rebuilding year for the Rams as well, but we still think they’ll have more than enough to dispatch Hawaii easily. The defense though has five starters back from a group which allowed 27.8 PPG. Last year the Rams were 11th in the country in total offense. Clearly there is going to be a major drop off this season, but we think the depth COLORADO STATE brings to the table will turn out to be the difference in the end. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -114 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Alabama. So why will No. 4 Alabama not only beat No. 3 Georgia, but also go on to cover the spread? The Crimson Tide made a statement in their 24-6 victory over the top seeded and defending CFP Champion Clemson Tigers in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers averaged 35.4 PPG this year and 448.2 YPG overall, but were limited to just two FG’s and 188 total yards. Georgia averages 36.3 PPG and allows just 15.7, but the Bulldogs have yet to face a defense as good as the Tides. Note as well that ‘Bama is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a neutral site favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a neutral site dog. We think ALABAMA’S defense is firing on all cylinders at the exact opportune moment and we look for it to be the difference maker in the National title game. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 518 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson. This is a rematch of last year’s National Title game and we’re expecting a similar final result here as well. Alabama has significant injuries to its defense, with DB Hootie Jones, LB Dylan Moses and and LB Shaun Dion Hamilton all out with injury. Clemson on the other hand has gotten healthier on the defensive side of the ball, with Tre Lamar returning after missing the final three games with an injury. He’s going to be big in stopping the Crimson Tide run game. Alabama allows just 11.5 PPG, while QB Jalen Hurts owns a sharp 15/1 TD/INT. Tide RB Damian Harris averages 8.2 YPC. The Tigers allows just 12.8 PPG and it lead the nation in sacks with 44. Clemson was 6-0 in games against ranked teams this year, which included a convincing 38-3 win over Miami in the ACC Championship. Note that Alabama is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss (lost 26-14 to Auburn in the SEC Title game), while Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral site contests. Grab as many points as you can, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -6.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 469 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin. The Hurricanes are down three starters in this one, with RB Mark Walton lost in October, TE Christopher Herndon suffered a season ending injury in Novmeber and WR Ahmmon Richards was just hurt before the ACC Championship game. The Badgers only loss this year came in the conference championship game to Ohio State. Wisconsin finished in the top 5 in every statistical defensive category, including No. 3 scoring defense in allowing just 13.2 PPG. Miami lost its last two games of the year, getting upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 over Thanksgiving and then getting annihilated by Clemson in the championship contest. Note that Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a loss, while Miami is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs. When taking into account all of the above factors, we definitely feel that the savvy move in this contest is on the BADGERS. AAA Sports |
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12-28-17 | Virginia +1.5 v. Navy | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Virginia. It’s been confirmed that Virginia senior starters Micah Kiser, Quin Blanding and Kurt Benkert will all be playing today. Blanding has four INT’s this year, while Kiser has 130 tackles. Virginia backed its way into the Bowl season after a hot start. Navy can empathize though, as it’s lost six of its last seven, including a deflating loss to Army in its regular-season finale. Note that Virginia is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing with three or more weeks rest, while Navy is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with three or more weeks rest. The situation and the numbers both point to VIRGINIA as the savvy move in this year’s Military Bowl. AAA Sports |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Iowa. Boston College posted consecutive victories to punch its ticket to the Pinstripe Bowl, with wins over UConn and Syracuse to close the regular season. Iowa went into its final game of the year on a two-game losing streak, but then smashed Nebraska 56-14 in its regular season finale. Iowa RB Akrum Wadley posted 1,021 rushing yards on the year. BC most recently crushed Syracuse 42-14 in the Carrier Dome back on November 25th. Eagles’ RB AJ Dillon has 1,432 rushing yards and 13 TD’s this year. As good as BC has looked of late, we’re calling these offenses a “wash.” The difference maker for us is the Hawkeyes’ defense. Lay the points, play on IOWA. AAA Sports |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Central Michigan. Wyoming will welcome back QB Josh Allen to the mix, but we still like CMU here. CMU won its fifth straight in a 31-24 home win over Northern Illinois in late November, while Wyoming backed its way into the bowls, losing its final two, including a 20-17 loss to San Jose State in its finale. The Chips average 29.7 PPG and allow 26.8. CMU QB Shane Morris finished a 26:13 TD:INT. The Cowboys average 22.3 points and allow 17.8. Allen finished with a 13:6 TD:INT. Note though that CMU is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Wyoming is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after a three week or more rest period. Although they haven’t played for almost a month, CMU has a ton of momentum with the five straight victories and we look for this well oiled machine to carry it over here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on Marshall. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Marshall is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog (including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season) and 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Colorado State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five when playing with two or more weeks of rest, 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral field contests and just 1-2 ATS in its last three non-conference games. The bottom line: This is the New Mexico Bowl from Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Herd dropped its final two games of the year, but we think they are the more complete team of these two. QB Chase Litton had a 23:13 TD:INT ratio. The Marshall defense though is its strength and we think the unit will prove to be the difference maker in the end in this one. Colorado State’s weakness is on the defensive side and it struggled against good passing teams. The offense led by QB Nick Stevens was impressive, as he’d finish with a 27:10 TD:INT. The Rams also have a powerful RB in Dalyn Dawkins, who we think will have major difficulty with this opportunistic Thundering Herd defense which allows just 125 rushing YPG (note that Marshall gives up just 19.2 PPG overall.) We’re grabbing the points, play on the THUNDERING HERD. AAA Sports |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State -6 v. Wisconsin | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 58 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Ohio State is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a neutral field favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Wisconsin is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field. The bottom line: The winner of this will get a ticket to the College Championship round. Ohio State edged Wisconsin 30-23 in OT last year. Both teams ended the regular season with victories (Wisconsin 31-0 over Minnesota, Ohio State 31-20 over Michigan.) The Badgers average 34.8 PPG and allow just 12.0. The Buckeyes average 43.8 PPG and allow just 19.8. With a chance to derail the Badgers hopes, we think the offensive depth that OHIO STATE brings to the table today will in the end prove to be the difference. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC OVER 57.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 106 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Stanford and USC. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as an underdog this year and in five of its last six when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (fell 42-24 to USC earlier in the year), while USC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range this season and in four of six against teams with winning records. The bottom line: These teams blew way posted the posted number in the first game in September and all signs point to another high-scoring shootout in our opinion. Stanford is out to avenge the earlier loss and will be pushing the pace from start to finish as it looks to keep up with the high-flying Trojans. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little low. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati -5.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Cincinnati. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that UConn is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 4-5 ATS this year as an underdog, while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. The bottom line: Both teams have been terrible this year and neither will be playing in a bowl. The Bearcats play with revenge though after falling to the Huskies 20-9 last year. The revenge factor, combined with home field advantage turns out to be the difference. Play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech v. Texas -9.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TV GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. The Red Raiders are an absolute disaster right now, most recently falling 27-3 to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech still needs one more win to become bowl eligibile, but we don’t expect a letdown from the Longhorns here. Texas enters off a 28-14 win over WVU and it’ll look to send off its seniors with a big victory in front of the home town crowd in the season finale. Last week Texas Tech threw for just 153 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The Texas defense just held the high-flying Mountaineers to 14 points, limiting WVU to only 56 rushing yards on 19 carries. Note that Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of 20 points or more, while Texas is 4-1-1 ATS in its las tsix following an ATS victory and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home. All signs point to a blowout, play on the LONGHORNS. AAA Sports |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between NC State and Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: As note that NC State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six against conference opponents already this year and in three of four as an underdog, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last when playing against a team with a winning record. The bottom line: Both teams are bowl eligible. At 7-3, NC State would need to win its next two games, along with Clemson (9-1) dropping its final two, to earn the Atalantic crown of the ACC. The Tigers play the Citadel this week and then against South Carolina to close the campaign, so there’s no way Clemson drops both, let alone either. Wake Forest is 6-4, sitting a game behind the Wolfpack, but after posting their sixth win of the season in last week’s 64-63 win at Syracuse last Saturday, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Demon Deacons. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-17-17 | UNLV v. New Mexico -2 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that UNLV is just 4-10 in its last 14 against teams with losing records, while New Mexico is already 2-1 ATS this season against teams with losing records. The bottom line: The Runnin’ Rebels are at 4-6 and need to win their last two games to become bowl eligible. Unfortunately for the Lobos though, at 3-7 their postseason hopes are now gone. This is New Mexico’s final home game of the year though and it will be looking to put on a show for the home crowd, while also putting a final nail in the coffin for UNLV’s bowl hopes. We love the LOBOS to play spoiler tonight, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-16-17 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 66.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the OVER between Tulsa and South Florida. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Tulsa has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while USF has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six following its bye week. The bottom line: With a week off to prepare and refocus for the final push before a game against league leading UFC next weekend, we look for USF to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Tulsa has nothing to play for here, but will also be looking to open up the playbook with the slim shot at playing spoiler. This number is a litte low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-15-17 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66 | Top | 66-37 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER between Toledo and Bowling Green. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine as a road favorite, while Bowling Green has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points. The bottom line: Bowling Green has nothing to play for. Not even the role of spoiler this weekend for motivation. Toledo on the other hand will be vying for the Conference title in a few weeks and won’t want to leave anythig to chance here. We look for the Rockets to “control” this game while on offense and we look for this total to indeed fall UNDER this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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11-14-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 42-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Central Michigan and Kent State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that CMU has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins and in seven of its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while Kent State has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU losses and in eight of 14 off a loss against a conference rival. The bottom line: Handicapping at this time of the College Football season for us mainly comes down to which side is more motivated than the other. Central Michigan just punched its ticket to bowl eligibility in last week’s 42-30 victory over EMU and is poised for a predictable letdown. Kent State has nothing left to play for either at this point. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-10-17 | Washington v. Stanford +6 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding its previous opponet to three points or less (beat Oregon 38-3 last weekend), while Stanford is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival (fell 24-21 at WSU last weekend.) The bottom line: The Cardinal became bowl eligible the week before last Saturday’s loss, but suffered a predictable letdown. Washington only has one loss on its resume so far, but we think it’ll have its hands full today in this tough atmosphere. Stanford plays with revenge as well after falling 44-6 in last year’s matchup. Time for the Cardinal to bounce back from last week’s upset loss and to try and avenge last year’s setback to the Huskies, while also dealing Washington a blow to its playoff/bowl rankings. Grab the points, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
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11-09-17 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State UNDER 55 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Georgia Southern has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 18 when plaing on six or less days rest and in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while Appalachian State has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last five following a conference contest and in three of its last four Thursday night contests. The bottom line: Georgia Southern is 0-8 and we don’t think even has the motivation left to try and play spoiiler. App State on the other hand is running out of time to become bowl eligibile, so will be looking to punch its ticket today with a convincing victory. We’re expecting the home side to control this one whenever possible. This number is indeed a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-08-17 | Toledo v. Ohio UNDER 65 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Toledo and Ohio. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range (including in two of three this season) and in 13 of its last 20 against the conference, while Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 as an underdog and in 14 of its last 21 against the conference. The bottom line: The 8-1 Rockets face off against the 7-2 Bobcats. Ohio leads the East and Toledo leads the West. When these teams played last year it was Ohio that scored the 31-26 win at home. With so much on the line today, we’re expecting another battle and a similar final combined score here as well. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-07-17 | Akron +5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Akron. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Akron is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS in that position this year) and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 against teams with losing records (including 3-0 ATS this season), while Miami Ohio is just 1-3 ATS at home this year and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning records (including just 1-2 ATS in that positoin this season.) The bottom line: The Redhawks need to win out for a chance at a bowl, while the Zips, who come in off a 21-20 win over Buffalo last week, need just one more victory to become eligible. With the daunting task of having to “run the table” ahead of it, we think that Miami Ohio stumbles here. AKRON has several strong ATS stats working in its favor and won’t be lacking for motivation. AAA Sports |
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11-04-17 | Clemson v. NC State OVER 51 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between Clemson and NC State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 12 as a road favorite and interestingly in four of its last seven games played in the month of November, while NC State has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six home games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 56 points and in five of its last seven in front of the home town crowd overall. The bottom line: NC State is 4-0 in the Atlantic division of the ACC, with Clemson right beind at 5-1. North Carolina State is 6-2 overall, while Clemson is 7-1. To say this is a big game would be a pretty big understatement obviously. Clemson has been getting the job done with a nation leading defensive units, but we think NCA State is going to push it out of its comfort zone today. In what we expect to be an all out battle to the end, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 68 | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Marshall and Florida Atlantic. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong Over/Under ATS statistics: As note that Marshall has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (fell 41-30 to FIU last week), while FAU has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 16 at home, including in three of four this season. The bottom line: Marshall won its sixth game and then had a letdown last week. With that predictable loss behind them, the Herd look to get back on track here. The Owls have won four straight, but have just five wins on the year. FAU needs one more victory to become bowl eligibile and its also playing with revenge after falling 27-21 to Marshall last year. It’s an important game for these division rivals and in our opinion all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 55.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL THUNDER on the UNDER between Northern Illinois and Toledo. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Northern Illinois has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and in eight of its last 13 as an underdog, while Toldedo has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 24 as a favorite and in eight of its last 11 against teams with winning records. The bottom line: Both teams are bowl eligible, but each has bigger plans moving forward with conference title implications on the line. We’re banking on these highly motivated teams to battle tough and for this one to ultimately fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ASSASSIN on Western Michigan. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that CMU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its by week and just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while WMU is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and and 14-11 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. The bottom line: With a chance to punch its sixth win of the year, we look for WMU to rally here after losing its starting QB and to find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron OVER 48 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between Buffalo and Akron. Neither team has played to many “overs” this year, as Buffalo has seen the Over/Under go 3-5, while Akron has seen it go an amazingly lop-sided 0-7. Buffalo is 3-5 SU, while Akron is 4-4. Buffalo is coming off a 24-14 loss to Miami Ohio on the road, while the Zips enter off a 48-21 road loss to Toledo. Note that when these teams played last year, it was the Bulls that pulled off the 41-20 win. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting a similar final combined score here as well also. The Bulls will be pushing the pace today as they look to break a three-game slide. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had 202 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Note that so far the Bulls are ranked 24th in the nation in passing with 265.9 YPG, while averaging 26.6 PPG, while the defense allows an average of 25.1 PPG. The Zips are averaging just 22.9 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Last week Akron gave up 626 yards of offense to the Rockets. QB Thomas Woodson was 18 of 33 for 205 yards, with two TD’s and an INT. Despite all of the lower-scoring UNDER’s each team has been playing to of late, note that Buffalo has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Akron has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its last six as a favorite in teh 3.5 to ten points range. This number is just a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-21-17 | Syracuse v. Miami-FL OVER 58.5 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between Syracuse and Miami Florida. Syracuse comes in off a confidence building 27-24 upset win over Clemson, while Miami enters off a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech. These are two schools which come in on top form and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook this afternoon. Orange QB Eric Dungey was particualrly impressive last weekend, going 20 of 32 for 278 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. So for Dungey has 2,080 passing yards and a 12:4 TD:INT. The ‘Cuse defense looked great, however it should absolutely be noted that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant left before the end of the first half with concussion symptoms. The Hurricanes had to storm from behind and win on a late field goal as time expired to knock off the Yellow Jackets. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. Travis Homer had 170 yards rushing for the Orange, while Malike Rosier was 23 of 37 for 297 yards, one TD and no picks. The defense looked good as well, but we think it’s going to be put to the test this week against the red hot Dungey and company. Note that Syracuse has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. This number is just a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Marshall and MTSU. The 5-1 Marshall Thundering Herd have seen the Over/Under go 3-3, while the 3-4 MTSU Blue Raiders have seen it go 0-6-1. While neither team has been in many high-scoring affairs yet this season, we think the conditions are now finally right for that to change this evening. Marshall: The Thundering Herd most recently come off a 35-3 spaning of ODU last weekend. Marshall allows 321.8 YPG and averages 373.3 of its own. QB Chase Litton had 176 yards, three TD’s and no picks last weekend and so far he has 1,382 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s overall. Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders are coming off a 25-23 road loss at UAB. MTSU averages 20.4 PPG and allows 355.1 YPG. RB Brad Anderson has 367 rushing yards and three TD’s. MTSU QB John Urzua has 1,302 yards passing, six TD’s and eight INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Marshall has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while MTSU has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six off a loss against a conference rival. This number is just a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston OVER 61 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RED DRAGON” on the OVER between Memphis and Houston. Memphis has seen the Over/Under go 4-2 this year, while Houston has seen it go 0-6. Last week Memphis posted a 30-27 win over Navy, while Houston is coming off a 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Note that when these schools played last year, Memphis would hold on for the high-scoring 48-44 road win and suffice it to say, we’re expecting another high-scoring shootout here as well. Memphis averages 40 PPG and Houston should have a lot more success moving the ball today against this sub-par Tigers’ defensive unit. Note that Memhis has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Houstno has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three against teams with winning records. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-14-17 | Connecticut +12 v. Temple | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut. UConn is the “hungrier” team here as it’s lost four straight. Temple comes in off its best performance of the year with a 34-10 win over East Carolina and looks primed for a major letdown in our opinion. But not only is this a “letdown” spot, this is also is a bit of a “look-ahead” spot for the home side with a much more difficult game at Army next weekend. It’s a classic “trap” for Temple and it’s the main reason why we love this play so much. For UConn, a bowl trip is likely out of the question, but if the team has any hopes whatsoever it’s going to need to win this game straight up. The Owls picked up the decent victory last weekend, but QB Logan Marchi would post just his first 300 yard game of the year. Temple has already struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going 1-2 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as a favorite. UConn has struggled in almost every ATS statistical category there is over the last few seasons, which makes it important to note that it’s 4-1 ATS in its last five after surrendering 600 yards or more in its previous contest. While we’re not calling for an outright upset, all signs point to a comfortable back door cover. Play on CONNECTICUT. AAA Sports |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER between Clemson and Syracuse. Clemson comes in off a 28-14 win over Wake Forest at home last weekend, while Syrcuse rallied for a 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh. When these teams met last year, the Tigers smashed the Orange 54-0. Syrcuse is a better team since then and will be out for a little revenge this evening. Clemson: So far the Tigers rank 40th in the nation in scoring with 35.0 PPG, while ranked fifth in the country on the defensive side in conceding just 11.3 PPG. QB Kelly Bryant should be good to go in this one after tweaking his ankle next week. The Tigers’ vaunted defense though is going to finally be tested today by this “pass-happy” Orange offense. Note that the ground game wracked up 190 yards last week, so if Bryant isn’t able to suit up, the offense is still going to be fine, especially facing this weak Syracuse defensive unit. Syracuse: The Orange are ranked 56th in the country in overall offense with 32.0 PPG, the pass offense is ranked 13th in averaging 325 YPG. The defense is allowing 24.3 PPG, ranked 54th. QB Eric Dungey was 33 of 49 for 365 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has 1,802 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He also leads the team on the ground with 325 yards and another eight major scores. The bottom line: Whether Bryant plays or not, we think this explosive and deep Tigers’ offense is going to have its opportunities today. We also expect Dungey to continue his progression and push this Clemson defense to its limits. Note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 11 on the road, while Syracuse has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama v. Troy OVER 48 | Top | 19-8 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN-BELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between South Alabama and Troy. Both teamshave struggled to points on the board this season, as USA has seen the Over/Under go 1-4, while Troy has seen it go 0-5. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. While the “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, we’ve always been of the mind-set that lop-sided numbers/trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long-term. Also note that South Alabama has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 18 as an underdog and in its last six against teams with winning records, while Troy has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three following its bye week. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 73 | Top | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Memphis and UConn. This total is just a little high in our opinion. UConn has lost three straight and will be desperate to stop the slide. Memphis won three straight to start the year, before getting crushed by UCF last weekend. Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson has completed just 55.4 percent of his passes and has already thrown five INT’s. He does have 1,104 yards and nine TD’s, but regardless, he’s been sloppy and will be looking to get back on track tonight. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the Tigers, so far the team has posted 183 yards per game average thus far, led by Darrell Henderson. UConn: The Huskies were tied with SMU 28-28 early in the fourth quarter last week and then ended up losing 49-28. QB Bryant Shirrefs was 22 of 28 for 408 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while UConn has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern OVER 54.5 | Top | 43-25 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Arkansas State has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 16 as a favorite and in eight of its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Georgia Southern has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last 11 as an underdog and in four of its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: So far these teams have struggled to put points on the board, but the extra time off between games sets up perfectly for a higher-scoring affair. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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09-30-17 | Florida State -7.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -104 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State. Florida State is 0-2 SU/ATS, while Wake Forest is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Despite those lop-sided numbers which would suggest that the Demon Deacons have the upper-hand in this contest, we believe that FSU has enough situational factors working in its favor to finally get off the schneid in a big way on Saturday afternoon. Our September CFB “GAME OF MONTH” was on Appalachian State, which fell 20-19 at home to Wake Forest last week, securing the easy cover. The Seminoles come to town the hungrier team for sure after they fell 27-21 at home to NC State in their last game. FSU QB James Blackman was 22 of 38 for 278 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Cam Akers led the way on the ground with 57 yards. Auden Tate has 180 receiving yards over his last two games. FSU’s defense wasn’t horrible either, allowing 365 total yards. With last week’s contest cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, the visiting side comes in focused. Wake needed a cluth blocked FG to even earn the victory last week. John Wolford was 14 of 27 for 176 yards and two TD’s. Akeem Byrd so far has 233 yards rushing for the season. The defense looked suspect though in our opinion, allowing 501 total yards. Note as well that the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a loss against a conference rival, while Wake is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU victories. Blackman looked great in his role as starter and we think he’ll carry that progression over here. Lay the points, play on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-28-17 | Texas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. We think that Texas is going to be the “hungrier” side tonight, a factor which we foresee resulting in a comfortable cover for the visiting team. The Longhorns lost 27-24 to USC in OT last time out, while Iowa State rolled to a 42-14 win over Akron. Note though that when these teams faced each other last year, Texas scored the 27-6 road victory. But it was oh-so-close for the Longhorns against the No. 4 ranked Trojans last time out. Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. One other Texas offensive player to keep your eyes on this weekend is WR Collin Johnson, who had seven catches for 191 yards against USC. Ultimately though we feel that the Longhorns’ defense is flying under the radar in this one, as it looked great against the Trojans, holding them to 468 yards, while also making three sacks and two INT’s. The Cyclones’ Jacob Park had 317 yards and two TD’s last week. RB David Montgomery had 127 rushing yards. The defense looked sharp against the MAC team, but lining up against this Longhorns’ line (on both sides of the ball) is clearly a huge step up in overall caliber and size. We like TEXAS to step up defensively and to pull away for the cover. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State +3 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Appalachian State. The Demon Deacons are 3-0 after trashing Utah State 46-10 at home last weekend. Last week the Mountaineers beat Texas State on the road 20-13. App State’s lone loss comes in its opener, a 31-10 setback at Georgia. Wake Forest: QB John Wolford is playing his best ball of his career, so far going for 500 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s. He also has 192 rushing yards. RB Arkeem Byrd had 120 yards on 19 carries in last week’s win. The defense also looked sharp, so far the unit has allowed just 273.3 YPG. Appalachian State: Mountaineers QB Taylor Lamb was 17 of 28 for 167 yards, one TD and no INT’s last week. So far Lamb has 622 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s this year. App State gives up just 289 YPG thus far. Offensively the team averages 175.3 rushing YPG. The bottom line: With a big conference matchup at home against Florida State next weekend, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “look ahead/trap” game for the visitors. We’re grabbing the points, play on APPALACHIAN STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-21-17 | Temple +18 v. South Florida | Top | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASASSIN on Temple. While we’re not going to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect the talented visiting side to keep this one a lot closer than what Sin City is leading us to believe. The Owls: Temple enters off a 29-14 home win over UMass. QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. So far he has nearly 770 yards passing and a 5:0 TD:INT. WR Keith Kirkwood now has 185 receiving yards on the year, while RB Ryquell Armstead had 177 rushing yards through three games. The defense was decent, getting gouged for 377 passing yards, but allowing just 61 rushing yards. Massacusetts was behind most of the game though, so it was forced to air it out. The Bulls: South Florida enters off a 47-23 home victory over Illinois. QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT. So far he has 680 yards passing and an 8:2 TD:INT. RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries. USF looked strong defensively, allowing a total of 354 yards. The bottom line: When these teams met last year, the Owls posted a 46-30 victory. Temple had more turnover in the offseason, so these are different teams essentially. However, we think that the Owls’ high-octane offense can keep them in this one late. As mentioned off the top, we think these teams are more evenly matched than what Sin City is trying to lead everyone to believe. Grab the points, play on TEMPLE. AAA Sports When you think of these two teams, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Explosive offenses likely isn’t one of them. The reason this total is so low, is because there’s no question that these clubs struggle to put points on the board most nights. In fact, the 49ers have yet to score an offensive TD. The Rams looked good beating the injured Colts, but came back down to Earth against the Redskins at home last weekend. San Francisco was never going to make the playoffs this year, but with a three-game road trip looming, this could be its last/best chance to score a victory to open the season. Essentially, it’s a “do-or-die” scenario for the 49ers tonight. With an added 7 points to the UNDER and to the home side’s spread, this one has all the makings of an easy cash! AAA Sports |
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09-16-17 | Stanford -9.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford. Stanford will be looking to take out its frustration on someone tonight after falling 42-24 at USC last weekend. Enter SDSU. The Aztecs are 2-0, but they look primed for a letdown here in our opinion after upsetting Arizona State 30-20 on the road last Saturday. The Cardinal: Stanford smashed Rice in its opener, but was unable to keep pace with high-flying USC last weekend. In all the Cardinal were outgained 623-342. So far Stanford ranks 23rd in the country in scoring though with an average of 43 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side in allowing 24.5. QB Keller Chryst has 425 yards and four TD’s, while RB Bryce Love has 340 rushing yards and two scores. The Aztecs: SDSU held a slim 352-342 yardage advantage over Arizona State last Saturday. So far the Aztecs are ranked 54th overall in scoring with 34 PPG, while ranked 43rd in allowing 18.5. QB Christian Chapman has 293 yards, three TD’s and one INT. Rashaad Penny has 413 yards on the ground and three TD’s. The bottom line: Note that Stanford is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while SDSU is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against the Pac-12. The Cardinal don’t really have to respect the pass today, so can load the box to slow down Penny. We look for STANFORD to ride its superior defensive play to a decisive victory. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida OVER 52.5 | Top | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 83 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Illinois and South Florida. For a number of different reasons, we believe this number is a little low. Illinois: The Illini looked sharp in their 20-7 win over WKU last week. Illinois had a 300-244 yardage advantage over the Hilltoppers. So far Illinois has struggled offensively, ranked 100th in the FBS by averaging 22 PPG. The defense has so far allowed only 14 PPG, ranked 28th overall, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the young season. South Florida: USF’s game against UConn was delayed last week due to Hurricane Irma. In their previous game the Bulls would outscore Stony Brook 24-7 in the second half for the decisive victory. So far USF is 43rd overall in scoring with 36.5 PPG, while ranked 50th in allowing 19.5. QB Quinton Flowers is 30 off 55 overall for 400 yards with four TD’s and one INT, as well as adding 137 yards and a TD on the ground. The bottom line: Note that Illinois has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three when playing on six or less days rest, while USF has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four following a layoff of two weeks or more. All signs point to this one going OVER as the game comes down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on New Mexico. New Mexico enters off a tough 30-28 home loss to a difficult New Mexico State team at home, while Boise State collapsed in the second half of its game against Washington State, eventually succumbing 47-44 in OT. Note that the Lobos play with revenge here after falling 49-21 at home to the Broncos last season. New Mexico: The Lobos were actually down 30-5 at the start of the fourth quarter, but alas their come back bid came up a bit short. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting New Mexico to carry over that momentum/confidence to this one. QB Tevaka Tuioti came in late and threw for 151 yards and two TD’s. The Lobos also had 176 yards on the ground, led by Jay Griffin IV with 64 and a TD. The defense looked poor, but will catch a small repreive in facing what should be a gassed Broncos side working on the short week. Boise State: Over the final ten minutes the Broncos allowed 21 unanswered points and then eventually lost in overtime to Washington State. QB Brett Rypien was injured, so Montell Cozart would take over and he’d go for 161 yards, two TD’s and an INT. In all the Broncos allowed 455 yards on defense, so the Lobos are going to have their chances here today as well. The bottom line: Rypien is a game time decision here. Note that New Mexico is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Boise State is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 1/2 to 21 points. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State. San Diego State beat UC Davis 34-17 last weekend, while Arizona State rallied for a 37-31 win over New Mexico State. Aztecs: SDSU has just 11 starters back from a team which went 11-3 last year, including a 34-10 victory over Houston in the LV Bowl. The ground game notched 276 yards against the lowly Aggies last week. Rashaad Penny had 197 yards and two TD’s on 21 carries. QB Christian Chapman was 16 of 21 for 221 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good, not spectacular and will now clearly have its hands full against the big arm of ASU QB Manny Wilikins, who had 300 yards against the Aggies last week. Sun Devils: New Mexico State is a damn good team, filled with veteran experience. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 331 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 for 300 yards and two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had a big day with 123 yards on seven receptions. ASU’s weakness last year was its defense and that once again appears to be the case this season. The bottom line: But Arizona State catches a break this week facing the run heavy offense of the Aztecs. The secondary is the weak point. SDSU has a game at home against Stanford next weekend, before then starting the conference part of its schedule with a tough one on the road against Air Force. All signs point to the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that gruelling part of their schedule. A great situational play, play on the SUN DEVILS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-17 | Oklahoma State v. South Alabama UNDER 66.5 | Top | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 60 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between OK State and South Alabama. Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs and while we might also see a bit of a shoot-out in this one, we ultimately believe this number is just a little high. Oklahoma State: OKS smashed Tulsa 59-24 on Thursday. The Cowboys had 640 yards of offense in Week 1, but with a tough non-conference game at Pittsburgh next weekend, a team that the Cowboys beat 45-38 last season, it’s not too hard to imagine the visiting side getting caught “looking ahead” to that more difficult/important matchup. South Alabama: The Jaguars fell to Ole Miss 47-27 on Saturday. It was 13-10 at half time, but SA was outscored 27-3 in the third quarter. QB Cole Garvin was 19 of 31 for 204 yards and a TD, while adding 18 yards and two scores on the ground. The bottom line: Note that OKS has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven on the road, while SA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after allowing 46 points or more in its previous game. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of scenarios that we keep our eyes out for. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue +26.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. This is a great “situational” play in our opinion, as we’re expecting the Cardinals to “look past” their lowly opponent tonight to a much more important conference matchup on the road at UNC next weekend. Louisville: The Cardinals were 9-4 overall last year and 7-1 in the ACC, falling 29-9 to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. QB Lamar Jackson had 3,543 passing yards, alowing with a 30:9 TD:INT ratio and also posted 21 rushing TD’s, ultimately going on to win the Heisman. But Jackson only has three other starters returning to his offense from last year. The defensive line also has more questions than answers right now with many holes to fill. Despite the issues that Louisville must overcome, the team is once again expected to among the nation’s leaders on both sides of the ball. Purdue: The Boilermakers were 3-9 last season and had a 1-8 record in league action. Purdue is expected to be a lot better thi syear with several key players returning, including QB David Blough, who had 3,353 yards and a 25:21 TD:INT ratio. Purdue also returns all of its RB’s, including Markell Jones, who had 616 yards last year. The defense was a major issue last year, but the unit returns several starters as well. The bottom line: We like Blough to keep this one respectable. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BOILERMAKERS. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Boston College v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Northern Illinois. BC was 7-6 last year, winning three straight to end the season including defeating Maryland 36-30 in the Quicken Lane Bowl. NIU was just 5-7 and will be eager to return to a bowl this season. BC averaged only 20.4 PPG last year, but the team led the nation in many defensive categories. The Huskies started four different QB’s last year, but still managed to post 30.5 PPG. The defense was a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing BC’s vanilla offense. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we believe NIU’s offense will at the very least keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -27 | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 204 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH on Memphis. The Warhawks struggled on the defensive side of the ball last year, an area which is also expected to be a weak point this season. And that doesn’t bode well against the up-tempo Tigers, who we foresee pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Louisiana Monroe: The Warhawks were just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl. UL Monroe was disastrous on the defensive side of the ball last year, allowing at least 34 points in every game, with four games seeing the opposition put up at least 51. QB Garrett Smith finished with 1,237 yards, nine TD’s and seven INT’s. Memphis: The Tigers were 8-5 and then lost 51-31 to Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. Memphis is led by Riley Ferguson, who had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and ten INT’s. Ferguson is back for his senior year and we think he’ll be the big difference maker tonight. The offense also features a strong run game with Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. The bottom line: Note that Louisiana Monroe is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games in August, while Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference contests. All signs point to a rout from start to finish, lay the points with confidence, play on MEMPHIS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford -31 | Top | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 128 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Stanford. This game is being played in Sydney Australia. The Cardinal have some big holes to fill this year, but they have plenty of young talent in key positions, as well as plenty of veteran leadership on both sides of the line to fall back on. The Cardinal were 10-3 last year and then beat UNC in the Sun Bowl. Rice was just 3-9 overall. These teams actually met on November 26th last year and Stanford scored the 41-17 victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much bigger rout here today. Stanford turns to QB Keller Chryst, who had 905 yards and ten TD’s last season. Replacing RB Christian McCaffrey won’t be easy, but Bryce Love will try, he ran 112 times for 779 yards and three TD’s last year. The strength of Stanford though lies on both the offensive and defensive lines. And that doesn’t bode well for the undersized Owls, who were held to 17 points or less in half their games last season. The Rice defense struggled as well, with the opposition posting 41 points or more seven times. Note that the Owls also start a redshirt freshman at QB today in Sam Glaseman (also note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral field affairs.) Rice already has more questions than answers as we head into the season, which lines up perfectly for Stanford. Look for Chryst and company to shake off some early jitters/rust and pull away down the stretch for the comforable ATS cover. Play on the CARDINAL. AAA Sports |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama UNDER 52 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 178 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Clemson and Alabama. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Clemson has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five non-conference games this year, while Alabama has seen the total go UNDER in four of five in the same position. The bottom line: Alabama will look to control this one while on offense so as to keep DeShaun Watson and the Tigers’ dynamic offense off the field for as long as possible. Watson had a hell of a time against the Tide defense in 2015 and this year’s unit is even better. This one sneaks UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 672 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State. REASONING: USC closed the season with eight straight wins, including beating Notre Dame 45-27 at home in its finale. Penn State started the year 2-2, but then rattled off nine straight victories. Ultimately we think that Penn State’s explosive offense will do just enough to take this one down to the wire. The Trojans actually started the year 1-3, including a 52-6 loss by No. 1 Alabama. USC is ranked 42nd in scoring offense with 32.9 PPG and tied for 24th in scoring defense in allowing 22.2 PPG. The Nittanly Lions are putting up 430 yards of offense and 36.2 PPG, which is ranked 26th in the FBS. Penn State is 35th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 23.4 PPG. Note that USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field, while Penn State is 4-2 ATS in the same position. These teams are very similar and all signs point to this one being decided by whoever has their hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on PENN STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -3 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 626 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. REASONING: Back in 2014, No. 11 Clemson upset Ohio State 40-35 in the Orange Bowl. That game featured a couple of great QB’s in Taj Boyd and Braxton Miller, and so too does this one, with Clemson’s DeShaun Watson and OSU’s JT Barrett. Both teams have just one loss on the year. Barrett finished with 3,275 yards, 33 TD’s and just five picks, while RB Mike Weber led the way with 1,072 yards and nine TD’s. Ohio State ranks amont the best in the country on the offensive end (42.7 PPG, ranked fourth) and on the defensive end. Watson is 30-3 as a starting QB for Clemson. Watson had a mediocre season though, finishing with 37 TD’s and 15 picks. Clemson posts 506 yards per game, but is about to face the toughest defense it’s seen all year. Note that Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Clemson is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. We think Watson struggles against this top ten defense and look for Barrett to do just enough to secure the victory today. Play on OHIO STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-31-16 | Washington +17 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Push | 0 | 622 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington. REASONING: We got down on this one early and have Washington at +17 and it’s since dropped. Regardless, we think the high-flying Huskies can test Alabama’s nation leading defense and keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Washington hammered Colorado 41-10 in the Pac-12 Champ game, while Alabama cruised to a 54-16 win over Florida in the SEC title contest. The Crimson Tide are No. 1 in points allowed this year, allowing just 11.8 per contest. But there were two offenses which Alabama was unable to contain, beating Ole Miss 48-42 on September 17th and Arkansas 49-30 later on. Washington has steamrolled every opponent this year with its dominant offense, except in its only loss, falling 26-12 to USC on November 12th. QB Jake Browning has 42 TD’s this year, to go along with just seven picks. But Washington’s defense is vastly underrated in our opinion, as it concedes only 17.2 PPG, ranked ninth overall. Bama QB Jalen Hurt was 11 of 20 for 137 yards and one score in the win over the Gators. Hurts has 33 combined rushing/throwing TD’s and nine picks. Note that Alabama is just 1-2 ATS in its last three dome games, while Washington is 2-0 ATS in its last two in the same position. With a month off to prepare, we think Chris Peterson has the Huskies ready to play today. Grab the points, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh UNDER 65 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Northwestern and Pittsburgh. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Northwestern has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 11 non-conference games (including on all three this year) and in eight of its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The bottom line: We’re expecting each to put an added emphasis on establishing the run game while on offense. This number is just a little bit high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State. REASONING: NC State earned bowl eligibility in its final game of the season. So too did Vanderbilt. The Wolfpack would beat UNC 28-21 in their regular-season finale. The team was paced by RB Matthew Dayes, who had 103 yards rushing and two TD’s in the victory over the Tar Heels. In all Hayes would finish with 1,119 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Also note that NC State has five receivers collecting at least 400 receiving yards, led by Stephen Louis with 657. The Wolfpack average just 25.5 PPG, ranked 88th overall, but they’ve been exceptional on the defensive end, allowing just 23.2 PPG, which is ranked 33rd in the country. The Commodores would beat Tennessee 45-34 in their regular season finale. QB Kyle Shurmur had a big day with 416 yards passing and two TD’s. RB Ralph Webb is the focal point of the offense though, he finished with 1,172 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. These teams are similar in many respects, as note that Vanderbilt averages only 23.5 PPG, while conceding just 22.6 (ranked 28th). Note though that Vanderbilt is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games and only 1-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival, while NC State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest. We think the numbers all point to NC STATE as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between BYU and Wyoming. REASONING: Wyoming looks poised for a possible letdown here after it fell 27-24 to SDSU in the Mountain West Conference championship game. QB Josh Allen had three TD’s, but also two INT’s in the setback. Expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on RB Brian Hill, who had 1,213 yards on the season, which ranked fourth overall. Wyoming averaged 37.1 PPG, but looked pretty average in the loss to the Aztecs. The defesne was a weak point all year, allowing 34.8 PPG. However, that unit looked pretty good against high-powered SDSU which just came roaring back to beat Houston on Opening Day of the bowls 34-10, after posting just six points at half time. The Cougars have won four straight, but lost QB Taysom Hill to a season-ending knee injury in the final game of the regular season. BYU has a competent backup Tanner Mangum, who put up big numbers for the Cougars last year, but this isn’t an easy situation for himself or the rest of the offensive unit. And note, BYU struggled for the most part on the offensive end this season anyways, posting 30 PPG, which was ranked 62nd overall in the country. The defense though was stout, allowing an average of just 19.4 PPG, which ranked it 15th in the country. Note that BYU has seen the total go UNDER the numer in nine of 11 non-conference games this year, while Wyoming has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last 11 in the same position. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky UNDER 79 | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Memphis and Western Kentucky. REASONING: This can still be a higher-scoring game and fall UNDER this sky-high number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting to see happen. The 8-4 Memphis Tigers are ready to battle the 10-3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night and we’re expecting more of a defensive affair than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. WKU comes in off its second straight C-USA championship, beating Louisiana Tech 58-44. Memphis also comes in on fire, it won three of its last four, including upsetting Houston 48-44 in the regular season finale. The Tigers come in averaging 39.5 PPG. Their defense was above average in allowing just 27 PPG. The Hilltoppers average a whopping 45.1 PPG, which is ranked second in the country. WKU though also has a strong defense which has held three of its last five opponents to under ten points. Will rest lead to rust for these two high-powered offenses? We think so, at least to begin with. And that leaves the door open for the defenses to step through. Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WKU has seen the total go UNDER in three of four non-conference games this season. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13 v. Tulsa | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Central Michigan. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and “common sense:” As note that Central Michigan is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a conference rival, while Tulsa is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with two weeks or more of rest and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. The bottom line: We think Cooper Rush can keep this one close and look for the trends listed above to continue over into the Beach Bowl. play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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12-03-16 | Florida v. Alabama -24 | Top | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Alabama. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Florida is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog (including just 1-2 ATS this year), while Alabama is 8-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 6-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. The bottom line: The Gators have a top 15 defense, but the offense is a disaster. And that doesn’t bode well for an Alabama team which leads the nation on defense in allowing under 12 PPG. The Crimson Tide also rank in the top 10 offensively. On the national stage, we look for the No. 1 team in the FBS to send a resounding message to the rest of the country. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +8 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Colorado. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense: Washington is 11-1 and with a victory tonight, will not only claim the Pac 12 title, but also punch its ticket to the playoff championship round. Colorado beat Utah at home last week and has been under valued all year in our opinion. The Buffs have a top 35 offense and a top 10 defense. The Huskies are 3rd in the nation in scoring and also have a top 10 defense. Will Washington get caught “looking ahead” to what might be? The pressure is on the Huskies and we think the spotlight is going to be a detractor tonight. Conversely, the Buffs clearly have nothing to lose. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a win against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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11-26-16 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -100 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Michigan is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year). It’s also a poor 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog and just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against conference opponents. Note that it’s also only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note that Ohio State has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS at home this year is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: Obviously a huge rivalry game, but we simply can’t see the home side taking a mis-step at this point. We look for OHIO STATE to do just enough to come away with the cover at the end of the afternoon. AAA Sports |
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11-25-16 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 41 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Nebraska and Iowa. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Nebraska has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less and in eight of its last 12 as an underdog overall, while Iowa has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a home fav of three points or less and in 16 of its last 24 when playing with six or less days rest. The bottom line: The numbers all point to this total being set just a bit low. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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11-25-16 | Washington -5.5 v. Washington State | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Washington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The bottom line: The Cougars are coming off their first conference loss of the season to Colorado and are primed for a letdown. The Huskies are hoping to play for the national title and we’re expecting their No. 1 Pac 12 offense and defense to do just enough today to secure the ATS victory in the tough environment. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M +4 | Top | 54-39 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Texas A&M. REASONING: LSU has little to play for as it closes out the season sitting at 6-4, most recently coming off a disappointing 16-10 home loss to Florida this past Saturday. Texas A&M is 8-3 SU and it’s gunning for a better bowl position at this point. The Aggies enter off a 23-10 win over UTSA last week. LSU RB Leonard Fournette played injured last week and it showed as he’d finish with just 40 yards on 12 carries. Derrius Guice had 83 yards on 19 carries to go along with a TD (Guice was stuffed for the winning attempt from one yard out though). The Tigers get the job done on the ground offensively as the passing attack has been a major issue for years, this season it’s averaged just 174 yards per game, ranked 109th in the country. The Aggies lost the services of QB Trevor Knight and backup Jake Hubenak has been decent in relief, posting 222 yards against Mississippit State, 213 yards against Ole Miss and 248 yards against UTSA last weekend. Last Saturday he was 19 of 32 with one TD and no INT’s. The Aggies run game has been the strength of the team though, averaging 220.2 YPG. Note that LSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten games played in the month of November, while Texas A&M is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. We like Hubenak here and think the home side will jump on this rattled Tigers team. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA Sports |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. REASONING: Memphis is bowl eligible, while Cincinnati desperately needs two more wins to join the party. While an outright win is obviously not out of the question, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points as we think the home side’s overall desperation will take this one down to the wire. The Bearcats come in on a three-game losing streak. Memphis though is backing its way into the postseason as it’s dropped three of its last four, most recently a 49-42 setback to USF last weekend. Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson was 29 of 46 for 331 yards, three TD’s and one pick last week. Cincinnati most recently fell 24-3 to Central Florida and is in danger of a missing a bowl game for the first time in six years. Note though that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 3-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite (also a horrible 1-5 ATS against the conference), while Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses. Desperation breeds motivation, play on the BEARCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Michigan. REASONING: Ohio is heading bowling this year, but still has its sights set on taking the MAC East Division and overall conference crown. The Bobcats most recently edged Buffalo 34-10 back on November 3rd. CMU on the other hand is just 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips will be in a foul mood after dropping three straight, most recently a 37-17 loss to Miami Ohio on November 4th. If we look a little deeper into Ohio’s last win, we find that it was definitely a little “lucky” as it was outgained 413-377 and lost the first down battle 19-18. It also dropped the time of possession battle 31:36 to 28:24. Note that Ohio stands 63rd in the nation in scoring offense at 29.3 PPG. The defense is ranked 35th in allowing 23 points. The Chips are a pass first team, they actually rank 27th in the country with an average of 279.3 YPG. Overall CMU is ranked 64th in scoring offense at 29 PPG. The defense isn’t horrible either, allowing 29.3 PPG, ranked 72nd overall. Note that Ohio is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while CMU is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. We think that despertion leads to motivation for the home side, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boston College. REASONING: BC still has a shot at a bowl, but will need to win two of its last three games and while an outright upset is almost assuredly out of the question, we think that the visitors can keep this one competitive enough to come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. BC will be especially motivated here after getting blown out at home to Louisville last weekend. FSU finally became bowl eligible last weekend with a 24-20 win at NC State and we think it’s going to have a small mental letdown tonight. A 52-7 loss to the Cardinals sounds horrific, until we remember that FSU was annihilated 63-20 to Louisville as well earlier in the year. Clearly FSU is better on paper and on the field, but we think it’s just a classically bad “spot” for the home side today. Note that BC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while FSU is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven in the same points range and just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite. Grab the points, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +5.5 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. REASONING: Utah is 7-2 and is still trying to win its division, but at just 5-4 and with losses in three of its last four games, the Arizona State Sun Devils are desperate for one more victory and to become bowl eligible. Both teams come out of their bye, which we think favors the hungry Sun Devils. But primarily from a scheduling stand-point, this has bascially become a “must win” game for ASU. And that’s because it ends the year with two straight incredibly tough road games at Washington and Arizona. For us this pick is entirely “situational.” Also note that Utah is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five following its bye week, while ASU is 4-1 ATS following its bye week. Grab as many points as you can, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-05-16 | Washington v. California UNDER 78 | Top | 66-27 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Washington and California. REASONING: Washington is 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS and has seen the total go 7-1 to the over this year, including 3-0 on the road. Cal is 4-4 SU/ATS and has seen the total go 6-2 to the over this season, including 2-1 at home. Both teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this season and for good reason, as these are a couple of high-powerered offenses which keep the foot on the gas from the opening kick until the final horn, with each also possessing defensive units which for the most part are an afterthought. However, whenever these teams have played against each other, it’s been a lower-scoring battle, as the last seven in the series have dropped below the posted number. This is by far the highest set total over that span, with the next closest coming in at 67 back in 2014. Last year Cal beat Washington 30-24. Cal comes in on nine days rest and will be looking to atone for a setback to USC last time out. Washington averages 46.1 PPG, but its defense has been even better, ranked 7th overall in allowing just 15.8. We think that Cals high-flying offense is going to stall against this tough Washington secondary. We’re also expecting the visitors to control the tempo of this one while on offense, as to limit the Bears’ time on that side of the field. Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four games played in the month of November, while Cal has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 18 against teams with winning records. This can still be a high-scoring game and fall below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Central Michigan. REASONING: CMU is 5-4 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It’s the wrong place at the wrong time for the Redhawks in our opinion as we expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Central Michigan comes into this one in a foul mood after losing its second straight, this time a 27-24 home loss to Kent State last week. Miami Ohio is primed for a letdown here after its third straight win though, including a shocking 28-15 road win over EMU last weekend. The Chippewas are 59th in the nation in scoring at 30.3 PPG. They’re 73rd in the nation on the defensive side, allowing 28.4 PPG. The RedHawks are 117th in the country in scoring at just 20.9 PPG, while the defense ranks 51st by allowing 25.7. Note that CMU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following a straight up loss, while Miami Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in it last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The situational and motivational factors favor the visitors and so too do the numbers and trends. We’re laying the points, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 SIDE OF THE MONTH on UCLA. REASONING: ULCA has had a tough year and losing starting QB Josh Rosen to injury hasn’t helped. We had a play on UCLA as our GAME OF THE YEAR a couple of weeks back and released the selection before the extent of Rosen’s injury was fully known. While we got saddled with a loss because of the poor opening line, almost everyone else would have cashed against the closing one. Colorado is putting together a special season, so far it’s 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS. But with its bowl berth now all sewn up, we’re expecting a bit of a drop off in intensity tonight. And while Bruins’ backup QB Mike Fafaul has been far from perfect (eight TD’s and eight INT’s over 2-plus games), UCLA will be leaving everything on the field tonight and until the end of the season as it desperately tries to win three more games and become bowl eligible. On paper this is a major mismatch, but situationally it sets up perfect for UCLA. Note that UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while Colorado is 0-2 ATS following its bye. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +16 | Top | 52-20 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State. REASONING: This line opened at 16 (that’s the line we have) and it climbed to as high as 18.5. It’s come down a point as of writing, but regardless, we think the hungry home side can do just enough to come away with a solid ATS victory tonight. Both teams come out of their bye week. We think this will work negatively for the 8-0 WMU Broncos, who most recently beat EMU 45-31 on October 22nd. However, we believe the extra week off to prepare for the final four games of the year will greatly benefit the 4-4 Cardinals. Ball State doesn’t have many chances left to become bowl eligible and we’re expecting the team to bring its best effort each and every week. A big upset win over WMU would pave the way to a bowl appearance and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, we do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a competitive game this evening. Defensively these teams are in fact pretty close, with WMU conceding 19.3 and Ball State allowing 25.4. This sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors today. Play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International UNDER 64.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between MTSU and FIU. Setting the scene: FIU comes in off a 44-24 loss to Louisiana Tech, while MTSU comes off an improbable 51-45 upset win over the Missouri Tigers. Both teams have hopes of securing the Conference USA title and we’re expecting an all out war on Saturday night. MTSU: QB Brent Stockstill had 280 yars passing with four TD’s last week, while I’Tavius Mathers had 215 yards rushing and a TD. So far the Blue Raiders average 40 PPG, ranked 16th overall. FIU: WR Thomas Owens had eight catches for 96 yards and two TD’s last week, but the Golden Panthers struggled offensively otherwise. They’ve struggled on both sides of the ball all year and clearly will have their hands full against the Blue Raiders. The bottom line: Note that MTSU has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while FIU has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing a conference game. We think MTSU comes in a bit complacent after last week’s epic victory and when taking into account the rest of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Maryland v. Indiana OVER 51 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 116 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Maryland and Indiana. Setting the scene: Maryland is 5-2 SU, while Indiana is 3-4. The Terps have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of seven this year, while the Hoosiers have also seen the total go UNDER in six of seven as well. Suffice it to say, we think the value has finally swung the other way as we’re expecting these hungry schools to open up the playbook as they each push for bowl eligibility. Maryland: The Terps will be pumped after their 28-17 win over Michigan State at home last week. QB Perry Hills was 21 of 27 for 200 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. So far Hill has ten TD’s to just two INT’s on the season. The run game also looked great, as Ty Johnson had 115 yards, while Lorenzo Harrison had 105 yards and a TD. The team would in the end post 470 total yards of offense. Indiana: The Hoosiers will be desperate after losing three straight, most recently a 24-14 loss at Northwestern on the road. Indiana trailed 24-3 at half time, but would put 283 yards in the second half. QB Richard Lagow had 319 yards on the day, but two INT’s were the difference. The bottom line: Note that Maryland has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six off a win against a conference rival, while Indiana has seen the total go OVER in its last two as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range. When these teams played last year, the Hoosiers pulled away for the convincing 47-28 win on the road. We’re expecting a similar final combined score in this afternoon, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Connecticut v. East Carolina -5 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC SIDE OF THE YEAR on East Carolina. Setting the scene: The Huskies are 3-5. The Pirates are 2-5. The Huskies are 1-4 in the East Division of the AAC, while East Carolina is 0-3. Both teams come in off losses, UConn fell 24-16 to Central Florida, while East Carolina lost 31-19 at Cincinnati. The Huskies: UConn had a 13-0 lead with 9:41 in the second quarter last week, but fell apart and could never recover in the second half. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 242 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. UConn has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging only 131.2 YPG. The Huskies have also struggled against the pass, giving up 289.8 YPG. The Pirates: ECU struggled against Cincinnati and fifth-year senior QB Gunner Kiel, who made his season debut as a starter in that one. QB Phillip Nelson had 283 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The run game was strong with 221 yards, while the offense would post 504 overall. ECU ranks ninth in the nation with 513.7 YPG, but it’s allowed 32.4. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road and just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog, while ECU is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 2-1 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. We think the desperate Pirates finally play a bit of defense, while the offense continues to shine and helps the team to pull away down the stretch for the easy ATS cover. Play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida UNDER 68 | Top | 45-52 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Navy and South Florida. Setting the scene: No. 22 Navy has won two straight, while USC is coming off a loss on the road to Temple last Friday. All signs point to a war tonight and as such, we’re expecting a lower-scoring final outcome. Navy: The Midshipmen are ranked 17th in the nation in rushing as the triple option is keyed around the ground game. QB Will Worth has nine TD’s on the ground, compared to just five through the air. Last week Worth had 201 yards and three TD’s against Memphis on the ground and another two passing TD’s as well. But it’s been the Middies’ defense which has turned the most heads this year, ranked 22nd in the nation in total yards given up. South Florida: QB Quinton Flowers suffered a late hamstring injury in last week’s loss to the Owls, but is expected to get the start tonight. The Bulls had won three straight before the setback. Defensively the team took a step back last week, allowing a whopping 319 rushing yards. Head coach Willie Taggart knows his defense needs to step up this week: “First, we’ve got to put guys in the position to make the plays. And if the guys can’t do it, then put someone else in that can do it. But some of those missed tackles last week are by some of the guys that we count on the most.” He went on to say: “We got physically dominated on both sides of the ball. We got outcoached. We didn’t do anything right as a football team — offensively, defensively or special teams.” The bottom line: We’re banking on USF playing much better defensively this week after the “brain fart” against Temple. Also note that Navy has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight when playing the role of underdog, while USF has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 14 against teams with winning records, including in two of three this season. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-27-16 | Ohio v. Toledo OVER 56.5 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Ohio and Toledo. REASONING: Ohio is 5-3 SU and has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its eight games this year. Toledo is 6-1 and has seen the O/U go 4-3 thus far. Despite the Bobcats struggling at times offensively this year, we think this one has all the makings of a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Ohio comes in with momemtum after a 14-10 win over Kent State on the road, while the Rockets have won three straight, most recently a 31-17 home victory over Central Michigan. The Bobcats aren’t the greatest offensively, but still manage a respectable 28.5 PPG. Defensively they’ve been better, allowing just 24.2 PPG. However, the competition suddenly goes up dramatically for visiting Ohio, which faces a Toledo team which is 12th in the nation in passing, with Logan Woodside leading the way with 264 yards on 23 of 32 passing with no INT’s and four TD’s last week. The run game is ranked 36th in the country, led by Kareem Hunt, who has 740 yards so far this year. In all the Rockets average 41.3 PPG, ranked 13th in the country. Note that Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three gainst teams with winning records, while Toledo has seen the total go OVER in nine of its last 16 at home and in three of four already this year. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State UNDER 65.5 | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Louisiana Lafayette and Texas State. Setting the scene: Louisiana Lafayette is coming off a 24-0 loss to App State last week, while Texas State lost 40-34 to Louisiana Monroe. Based on situation and strong/relevant O/U ATS trends, we believe that all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this matchup. The Ragin’ Cajuns: Lafayette’s offense looked horrible last week, picking up just 267 total yards. QB Anthony Jennings had 146 of those yards and he remains a lone “bright” spot for this struggling offensive unit. The Bobcats: Texas State would lose by just six points last week, but the game wasn’t nearly as close as the final outcome suggests, as the Warhawks would allow the Bobcats to inch closer in garbage time. Note that the offense only held the ball for 18 minutes the entire game and also turned it over three times. The defense wasn’t much better, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing Louisiana Lafayette’s vanilla unit. The bottom line: Note that the Cajuns have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Texas State has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine off a loss against a conference rival. Play the UNDER. |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. Setting the scene: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an epic SU victory for the lowly Boilermakers, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive against what we feel will be a slightly disinterested and contented Nebraska side. Purdue: The Boilermakers are 3-3, most recently coming off a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. The team promptly fired head coach Darrell Hazell afterwards. Purdue trailed 35-7 at half and its second half rally would eventually fall short. The Boilermakers were outgained by only a slim margin though, 520-504. Purdue can sling the ball, it’s tied for 19th in the country in passing at 305.5 YPG. Overall it averages 27.5 PPG, while the defense concedes 34.8. QB David Blough will once again be given the green light to operate today, he has 1,756 yards, 12 TD’s and ten picks. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 6-0 after holding on for a 27-22 road win over Indiana last week. Nebraska led by 17-0 after one quarter, but twice had its lead shaved to two points in the second half. The ‘Huskers won the yardage battle 360-333. Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring offense at 35.3 PPG and are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 PPG. QB Tommy Armstrong Jr has ten TD’s and four INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Purdeu is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall, 4-0 ATS in the same time span as road dog of 21.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival, while Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival. We think the shake up at head coach works in our favor today and the razor-focused Boilermakers catch the ‘Huskers a bit off guard. Grab the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 59 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan. Setting the scene: The Eastern Michigan Eagles are no slouches and come into this one sitting at 5-2. WMU though is 7-0 and will look to keep the good times rolling with another big effort. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, we’re expecting this total to eclipse the posted number. EMU: The Eagles enter off their second consecutive win, this time a 27-20 victory over a tough Ohio Bobcats team. Brogan Roback had 347 yards and three TD’s. Since taking over in late September Roback has thrown seven TD’s to just one INT spanning four games. EMU’s defense has been opportunisitc as the unit has 13 takeaways already this year. WMU: The Broncos rolled to a 41-0 win over Akron last week. QB Zach Terrell has been unstoppable, so far as he has 17 TD’s and zero INT’s. The bottom line: Note that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last nine as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while WMU has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 12 at home (including all three this year) and in 12 of its last 19 when playing the role of favorite. We think these offenses open up the playbook and that all signs point to a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech OVER 51 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Miami Florida and Virginia Tech. Setting the scene: These teams sport almost identical stat lines: Miami is 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U, while Virginia Tech is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U. Miami has lost two in a row, while the Hokies are looking to bounce back off an upset loss at Syracuse last week. The Hurricanes: Miami started the season 4-0 and averaged 47 PPG in the process. Since switching to league play, that offense has stalled though, totaling just 32 points over the last two games. Miami will be out to atone for last week’s lacklustre effort against North Carolina in which it put up just 13 points. The unit posted 363 yards of total offense, QB Brad Kaaya struggled, going 16 of 31 for 224 yards and no TD’s. One bright spot was the ground attack, led by the dynamic duo of Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton, who combined for 156 yards in that one and who now have over 1000 yards together, to go along with 14 TD’s. After its all said and done, the offense has been decent, averaging 36.7 PPG, good for 30th in the country. The defense has given up just 14 PPG, but looked horrible in giving up 461 yards to the Heels last week. The Hokies: Virginia Tech will be looking to get out to a much better start this week than last, as it went to Syracuse as a 21 point favorite and left with a 17 points loss. It was a terrible letdown after beating UNC 34-3 on the road the week before. VT though still has a very good shot at taking the Coastal Division title, so we’re expecting the team to break out the playbook today and to push the pace from start to finish. The unit will be looking to get the Miami defense out of its comfort zone and not allow it to dictate and enforce its will. Like the Hurricanes, the strength of the Hokies has been their defensive play, as they’ve given up an average of just 18.2 PPG this year, ranked 15th in the country. But last week against the Orange the unit was exposed, as Syracuse posted a whopping 561 yards of total offense, including 405 through the air. The defense also allowed 32 first downs and 10 of 21 third down conversions. The bottom line: Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight road games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 points, while VT has seen the total go OVER in ten of its last 17 in front of the home town crowd. We think the situation sets up perfectly for a higher-scoring shootout, play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | UCLA +3.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -100 | 154 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. Setting the scene: We’ve been holding off writing this analysis as we’ve been waiting on the status of UCLA QB Josh Rosen. We watched the Bruins fall 23-20 to Arizona State this past weekend. Rosen was injured twice in that game, but it did not look very serious. Afterwards, all initial reports indicated that the versatile pivot would be fine, but then the next day his status was downgraded to questionable. Backup Mike Fafaul took all of the snaps in practice this week and a line which opened at +3.5, has since moved to +7.5. The books at least are clearly expecting Fafaul to get the start today. While we’re not thrilled with the big QB change (clearly an unfortunate set of circumstances), this selection was based primarily on the “situation” and some extremely strong and relevant ATS trends to begin with anyways. Whether Rosen gets the start or not, we’re expecting the hungry Bruins to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Reasoning: The PAC 12 is not the conference it once was, as there has been a lot of inconsistent play. UCLA is 3-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS this year, while Washington State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. First off this is a “revenge” game for ULCA, which fell 21-17 in Pasedna last year. The Bruins have had a tough scheulde, which started with an OT loss to Texas A&M. UCLA then beat UNLV and BYU on the road, but then suffered a nine-point setback to Stanford, before beating Arizona by 21 and then falling to ASU this past weekend. Washington State has also had an up and down start, but we think is primed for a big letdown tonight. The Cougars began their season with a loss at home to FCS squad Eastern Washington. Then they lost in Boise to start the year 0-2. Washington State though has responded with three straight victories, including blowout wins over conference foes Oregon and Stanford. Last Saturday the team travelled to Stanford and hammered the 15th ranked Cardinal 42-16. After the string of recent success and off their huge win last weekend, we think these College kids are primed for a letdown this weekend. It’s also not hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to its next two games, both on the road, starting at PAC 12 South leading Arizona State. The bottom line: Note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Washington State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Whether Rosen plays or not, we think the “hungrier” and more focused BRUINS have a legitimate shot at scoring the outright upset today. That said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Ohio OVER 57.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between Eastern Michigan and Ohio. Setting the scene: These teams come in “firing on all cylinders.” EMU is 4-2 overall and 1-1 in MAC action, while Ohio is also 4-2 overall, but 2-0 in league play. We’re expecting these two hungry sides to open up the playbook and look for this total to sneak above the number once it’s all said and done. Eastern Michigan: The Eagles opened conference play with a 28-25 victory at Bowling Green, but would fall 35-20 at home to Toledo last weekend. QB Brogan Roback was 20 of 38 for 255 yards and one TD. Ohio: The Bobcats come off a 30-24 win over Bowling Green, as QB Greg Windham passed for one TD and ran for another. Ohio also turned four turnovers into 17 points. Windham was 20 of 27 for 190 yards. The bottom line: Note that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival and in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU victories. We think the writing is on the wall and a higher-scoring shootout is in the cards, play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois. Setting the scene: We think the 5-0 Broncos come in a bit complacent today, leaving the back door open just enough for the hungry 1-4 Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Northern Illinois: The Huskies come into this one with a bit of confidence after picking up their first win of the year, 31-24 against Ball State last weekend. The offense really started to click and we’re expecting that momentum to be carried over tonight, note that the unit posted a whopping 653 total yards. Keep your eyes on WR Kenny Golladay, who had 13 catches for 184 yards and two TD’s. Western Michigan: The Broncos rolled over Central Michigan last week 49-10. The defense posted eight sacks and two turnovers, icnluding an INT pick-six. So far the offense averages 459.6 YPG, including 247 on the ground. The bottom line: With a date against 0-5 Akron next weekend, WMU has hit a soft part of its schedule and we think the home side comes in disinterested and takes its foot off the gas. Grab as many points as you can, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Indiana +32 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Indiana. Setting the scene: Ohio State is a special team and one which barring epic disaster, will most assuredly be competing for the national title once it’s all said and done. The Hoosiers are a pretty good team too though and we think they’ll be able to keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch with the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Indiana: It’s 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State 24-21 at home last week. QB Richard Lagow was 16 of 26 for 276 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Devine Redding has posted over 100 yards in three of four games played. So far the Hoosiers average 29 PPG, ranked 67th in the country. The defense though is likely even better, as it’s conceding just 21.8 PPG. Ohio State: It’s 4-0 SU/ATS. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week. QB JT Barrett was 21 of 29 for 238 yards and four TD’s and one INT. RB Mike Weber had 144 yards rushing. The offense averages 57 PPG, ranked third overall, while the defense has been conceding an average of just 9.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the nation. The bottom line: The Hoosiers play with revenge today after falling 34-27 to the Buckeyes at home last year. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but 28 to 32 points better?! We don’t think so, as Indiana is no slouch, with offense and defense which both rank in the top 75. With back-to-back road games upcoming at Wisconsin and Penn State, we think the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on INDIANA. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State UNDER 57 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 116 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER between Maryland and Penn State. Setting the scene: Maryland is off to a 4-0 start in DJ Durkin’s first year as head coach and 1-0 in league play after beating Purdue 50-7 last week. Penn State is 3-2 and comes in with some momentum after holding on for an important victory over Minnesota last weekend. Penn State got the better of the Terps last season, 31-30, after losing 20-19 at home the year before. Maryland: The Terrapins ran for 400 yards last week, led by RB Ty Johnson with 204 of them, to go along with two TD’s off just seven carries. In all, eight different backs would combine to post the whopping production on the ground. QB Perry Hills has 109 yards rushing and two scores, to go along with 550 yards passing and five TD’s to just one pick. Penn State: The Nittany Lions needed OT to beat the Golden Gophers last week, as the defense was gouged for 469 total yards, including 228 on the ground. QB Trace McSorley led the comeback, so far he has 1,284 passing yards with six TD’s and three INT’s on the year. The bottom line: Maryland’s defense has been a strength of the team and we have a hard time picturing the Nittany Lions being as productive this week. The game plan won’t change for the Terps though, who will look to run the ball from start to finish. It’s significant to note that Maryland has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 13 on the road, while Penn State has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 17 against the conference. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College OVER 46 | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Clemson and Boston College. Setting the scene: Clemson is now 5-0 SU (just 2-3 ATS) after its big 42-36 win over the Louisville Cardinals last week. Boston College looks much improved from last season and comes into Week 6 sitting at 3-2 after hammering Buffalo 35-3. The Tigers offense averages 35.2 PPG, while BC posts only 23.4 thus far. These conference opponents are very evenly matched on the defensive side of the ball, with Clemson conceding 16 PPG and the Eagles allowing just 17.2. But we’re expecting a more wide-open affair on Friday night. We jumped on this line the moment it came out and unfortuantely we’ve been saddled with a poor one (46.5, and is now as low as 42.5 at some places), but regardless we still love this selection as we look for each side to open up the playbook and to push the pace from start to finish. Clemson: DeShaun Watson had five TD’s and 306 yards in last weeks win over the Cardinals. Three receivers would post better than 70 yards apiece. Watson though wasn’t perfect, also throwing three picks, so this opportunistic Eagles secondary is going to have some chances to put some points on the board today as well. Boston College: QB Patrick Towles was 14 of 24 for 234 yards and two TD’s with not turnovers in the win over the Bulls. The bottom line: The Eagles are about to face the most dynamic offense that they’ve seen all year and we think they’ll have their hands full. With the home side forced to match pace, we look for Watson and Towles to do just enough to send this one OVER the posted number once the final whistle sounds. AAA Sports |
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10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis UNDER 58.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between Temple and Memphis. Setting the scene: These teams have met four times and Temple holds a 2-1 edge in the series. Not only will Memphis be looking to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the year in last week’s 48-28 thumping at the hands of Ole Miss on the road, but it’s also out for some revenge after dropping last season’s game against the Owls 31-12. Note that Temple is 93rd in the FBS in passing (199.8 YPG), while Memphis is 20th (308.5). Temple: The Owls have won two in a row and have posted an enormous 93 points in the process. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting some regression on the offensive side of the ball on the short week. Temple’s defense has been great so far, ranked 34th in the country by giving up an average of just 20.4 PPG. Memphis: The Tigers will be focused on the task at hand today after getting spanked by the Runnin’ Rebels. The offense is putting up huge numbers, ranked sixth in the country with 45.8 PPG. The defense has also been great, allowing 18.8 PPG, good for 25th in the nation. The bottom line: Note that Temple has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 15 when playing the role of underdog and in seven of its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Memphis has seen the total dip below the number in six of its last nine against teams with winning records and in four of its last five home games with a total set between 56.5 and 63. We think the stage is set for more of a defensive affair this evening, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is the defending Sun Belt Champ, but it lost it’s QB in the offseason and has opened the 2016/17 campaign by going 0-4, including a humiliating loss to FCS Central Arkansas last time out. Georgia Southern comes out of a bye-week after getting smashed 59-31 on the road to Western Michigan. This is a great situational play though (which we’ll detail shortly) and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side is going to keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Eagles: Clearly they’re the better team today. Despite the lop-sided loss to WMU, Georgia Southern is still only giving up 305.8 YPG and 228 yards through the air. Four turnovers proved costly in the loss to the Broncos. QB Favian Upshaw was just 4 of 6, but did have two TD’s as well as one INT. Arkansas State will no doubt have its hands full trying to stop Georgia Southern’s ground attack, a unit which is so far averaging 317.8 YPG. Red Wolves: Coming off a 9-4 season, there were high expectations for Arkansas State this year. Clearly things haven’t gone the way that coach Blake Anderson envisioned, but despite the loss to Central Arkansas, there were a few silver linings to be taken from the setback, as QB Justice Hansen would go on to finish with 424 yards and three TD’s. Blake Mack also had eigth catches for 142 yards. Turnovers played a big part in the setback as well, as ASU had four, while unable to force any the other way. The bottom line: We think Georgia Southern gets caught “looking ahead” to its big matchup at Georgia Tech next week. While a non-conference game, clearly moving up to play in the Power 5 conference atmosphere is something these guys would have had circled on the calendar before the season started. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RED WOLVES. AAA Sports |
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