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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NIU The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 9* on HAWAII We can’t see a Colorado State team that’s lost four straight games and has no shot at a bowl performing very well out in Hawaii this week. The home team is 2-0-1 ATS as a dog in Honolulu this year. That record could be 3-0 ATS depending on your closing line for the San Diego State game. The Rainbow Warriors are on a three-game losing streak themselves, but unlike CSU, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they win the final two games. This is also the final home game of the year, which is always a special atmosphere. Injuries are starting to pile up for the visitors and the defense just gave up over 500 yards last week in a loss to Air Force. Hawaii is the healthier team at this juncture of the season and has a winning record at home. The only team that Colorado State has beaten on the road is New Mexico, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Oregon, despite being the #3 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, is an underdog this week at Utah. We agree with the linesmakers on this one. The Utes are #23 in the country, so they’re obviously a team to be respected. They average (ever so slightly) more points per game than do the Ducks. They give up only slightly more. The number of yards gained per game by the two offenses is nearly identical. The Utes have scored 34 or more points each of their last six games. So, despite what the rankings say, you’ve got two pretty identical teams here. Both offenses will look to establish the run. But Utah has the home field edge. They’ve won 17 of their last 18 games in Salt Lake City. In the last three head to head meetings between Utah and Oregon, whomever has been at home has won. Oregon has lost a game in the month of November each of the previous six seasons. If you’re like us and you don’t think that the Ducks are going to make the Playoff, then it stands to reason that this is the game they are likely to lose. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-20-21 | East Carolina v. Navy UNDER 47 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER After a disappointing start to their 2021 season, East Carolina has played much better down the stretch. The Pirates have won their last three games on the field and covered their last six at the betting window. That ATS win streak is one of the longest active streaks in the nation right now and ECU puts it on the line this week when they invade Navy. The Midshipmen are NOT having a good year. They are just 2-7 straight up and those two wins were by a combined seven points over UCF and Tulsa. The Navy simply seems to have lost its “firepower” as a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was the third game this year with seven or fewer points. They’ve scored more than 20 just two times and rank last in the American Conference in both scoring and yards gained. East Carolina’s game last week with Memphis went to overtime, so the 30-29 final is a little misleading. We think the Pirates won’t have much trouble shutting down Navy’s sputtering triple option, but with how much the Midshipmen run the ball, the clock will be running most of the way. That means unless ECU gets a lot of explosive plays, this will probably be a pretty low scoring game. Look for ECU to be limited on the explosive plays and for the Under to hit for the sixth straight time for Navy. The Under has also hit the last four times ECU has been favored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-20-21 | Washington -6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington has had a rough couple of weeks with coach Jimmy Lake being fired. The Huskies are 4-6 and one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. But they can still make a bowl game if they win out for interim coach Bob Gregory, who previously served as defensive coordinator. Such motivation does not exist in Boulder where Colorado is 3-7 following a 44-20 defeat at the hands of UCLA last week. Two key players - LB Gustav and WR Lemonious-Craig - both suffered season-ending injuries in that game. So a bad team just got worse. Since joining the Pac 12, the Buffaloes have beaten UW just one time - back in 2019 as 14-point underdogs. Prior to that, it had been seven consecutive double digit losses by an average of 28.9 points/game. Washington seemingly was on its way to a win over Arizona State last week before giving away the game in the fourth quarter. The defense has allowed the second fewest yards in the Pac 12. We think the Huskies keep their bowl hopes alive with a big win on Saturday. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-21 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -35.5 | Top | 16-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in the country, heads to Lexington this week to face a Kentucky team that was once ranked as high as #11. NMSU just got done facing another SEC team, Alabama, and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. The Aggies lost 59-3 and thus didn’t even cover as 50.5 point underdogs. It’s been a long season in Las Cruces as the team is 1-9 and that one win was against South Carolina State, who is not even a FBS program. The nine games versus FBS foes have not only all resulted in defeat, but seven of them have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Kentucky started the year at 7-0 (this is when they were ranked 11th), but then lost to Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee. They got back in the win column last week with a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. That game was 31-3 at halftime. The Wildcats are on a 14-game win streak against non-conference teams and are done with SEC play for the year. Because they are honoring the 22 seniors beforehand, UK will be “up” for this game. A defense that’s quite good could pitch a shutout here. The offense will have no problem scoring 40 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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11-19-21 | Memphis v. Houston OVER 59.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Look for Houston and Memphis to trade points Friday night on ESPN2. The Cougars come in averaging 38.9 points/game. They’ve scored 40 or more in four of the last six games. The defense had a strong effort last week, holding Temple to just 8 points. But that is out of the ordinary for Dana Holgorsen’s team, which gave up 37 to SMU and 42 to South Florida the two games prior. Memphis is also no slouch in the scoring department as it averages 31.5 points/game. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 451.4 yards/game for the season, which is more than what Memphis averages. But, like Houston, Memphis has its problems defensively. They give up 35.8 points/game on the road. The last six times these teams have played, there has been at least 57 total points scored. Five times there has been 69 or more total points scored. The Over is 10-4 the last 14 times Memphis has been a road underdog. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Houston has been off a win that was by 20 or more points. This feels like a game where both teams will score 30+ points. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -15 | Top | 35-19 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Our view is that Louisiana Tech should roll in this Friday night Conference USA battle. Their opponent, Southern Miss, is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Golden Eagles have just one win all year and that was against a FCS school (Grambling) back in September. Eight of their nine losses this year have been by double digits, five of them coming by 24 points or greater. USM did hang tough last week in a surprising showing at UTSA. But they used a “gimmicky” offense to do so and it resulted in their best player (RB Frank Gore Jr) getting injured. The offense still only gained 189 yards vs. UTSA and would have lost by 17 if not for the defense returning an interception for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech at least has some confidence after beating Charlotte 42-32 last week. This is their final home game, so the Bulldogs should be plenty motivated to go out and win big. They are 12-5 ATS following a straight up win. Louisiana Tech had over 500 yards of offense last week and a similar effort is quite possible tonight, which would likely mean a comfortable victory. Play on LOUISIANA TECH AAA |
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11-18-21 | Louisville -19.5 v. Duke | Top | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville Louisville should not have any problem beating up on a sorry Duke team Thursday night. The Cardinals enter this game off an impressive 41-3 win over Syracuse. That was a Syracuse team that had covered its previous seven games. As impressive as last week’s performance was, the Cardinals are still in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. Next week is the final regular season game and it’s against Kentucky. While at home, that is by no means a guaranteed win. So we look for L’vile to handle it’s business on Thursday against a Duke team that is 0-6 its last six games. Five of the six losses have been by 25 points or more! On Saturday it was a 48-17 loss at Virginia Tech. We see no reason to expect the Blue Devils to keep this one any closer. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback. The win over Syracuse may have been Louisville’s largest over a FBS team in six years. But we see no reason why they can’t repeat the effort tonight against a much worse team. After facing six straight opponents that had winning records, this should be a “walk in the park” for the road team. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The won-loss records of these two teams are quite misleading. Northern Illinois is 7-3 but has allowed more points than it has scored. Buffalo is 4-6 but has scored more than it has allowed. Hence the short number for this bit of Wednesday night “MAC-tion.” We’re going to side with the home team here, even though it is coming off back to back losses. Buffalo still has something to play for; if they were to win the next two games, then they become bowl eligible with six wins. The Bulls were MAC East Champs last year and would love to spoil Northern Illinois’ dreams of getting to the Conference Championship Game. The Huskies have won four games this year by a total of five points, which is nothing short of incredible and also very lucky. Last week was their third one-point win of 2021 as they kicked a last season FG to get by Ball State 30-29. But that was at home. The Huskies’ defense ranks ninth in the MAC in yards allowed (448.3 ypg) and seventh in scoring (30.8 points/game). Two weeks ago, they surrendered 52 points and 688 yards to Kent State! Buffalo’s defense is first in sacks while NIU is last (among MAC teams). Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER There’s been no shortage of points in these weekday MAC games. So when Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan hook up on Tuesday, don’t be surprised to see another shootout. Western Michigan comes into tonight off a 45-40 win over Akron last week. The Broncos are averaging 33.0 points/game in conference play, but at the same time the defense is giving up 34.8 points/game. They’ve allowed 40 or more in two straight games and three of the last five. Eastern Michigan had scored 50+ in back to back games before getting upset by Ohio last Tuesday. It will be a challenge for the Eagles defense to slow down a WMU offense that went for 533 yards seven days ago. Fortunately for the home team, it has averaged 465.7 yards over the last three games. It’s difficult for us to see either defense getting many stops in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 Over L5 Tuesday games. Western Michigan is 7-1 Over L8 Tuesday games and 17-4 Over L21 November games. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-13-21 | Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME People seem to have forgotten about Notre Dame? The Irish have won four straight since losing to Cincinnati. They’ve covered the spread in all four of those wins as well. That Cincinnati game is their only loss and we certainly don’t see them losing Saturday night in Charlottesville to Virginia. The Hoos had their own four-game winning run snapped two weeks ago. They gave up 66 points in a loss to BYU. While they did score 48 or more for a third straight game - and are now coming off a bye - we just don’t see the home team having enough to stay inside the number against a clearly more talented football team. Even with the bye, Virginia may not have QB Brennan Armstrong, who sustained a rib injury against BYU. That would be a crushing blow to the home team’s hopes here. Notre Dame is already 3-0 this season vs. ACC teams need a big win to impress the playoff committee. They get it here. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-13-21 | Boston College v. Georgia Tech OVER 54 | Top | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 42 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The last five Boston College games have all resulted in a win for Under bettors. The average number of total points scored in those five games is just 32.2! Last week was the lowest scoring game of the Eagles’ season, a 17-3 Friday night win over Virginia Tech. We realize that it’s been a struggle for them to score recently. But QB Phil Jurkovec has returned to the starting lineup and that should provide a spark offensively. BC faces Georgia Tech this week. The Yellow Jackets surrender an average of 31.7 points/game in ACC play and five of their last six have seen a minimum of 58 total points scored. So this has all the makings of the end to BC’s five game Under streak. While GT has lost three in a row, they scored 30 or more in two of the losses. They’ve also scored 30 or more in four of the last six games. When these schools played last year, the final score was 48-27 (BC won). Play on OVER AAA |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -10.5 | Top | 42-40 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina starting quarterback Grayson McCall is out with an injury. He missed last week’s game against Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers still won 28-8. We liked them in that game and will take them again here, laying the points as this line is a bargain. Backup QB Bryce Carpenter didn’t have to do much last week. However, he ended up completing 66% of his passes. Were McCall in the lineup, we’d project this spread to be close to three touchdowns. Is McCall really worth almost 10 points? Probably not! Georgia State has the 103rd ranked pass defense in the country as it gives up 257 yards/game through the air. Carpenter will probably play well. Coastal has scored 27 or more points in all nine games this season. Georgia State has topped 28 just once. The Chants have won 12 straight home games and last year they beat GSU on the road by 51 points. AAA |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA November is when Oklahoma typically starts to roll. The Sooners haven’t lost a November game since 2014, well before current head coach Lincoln Riley first arrived in Norman. They’ve won 23 straight November games, including 21 when favored. OU enters this game against Baylor with an undefeated record in 2021 (9-0) and we think they’ll stay that way. This is the second shortest line for one of their games all year. They were four point favorites for the Texas game, which they came back and won 55-48. At the time, that was the Sooners third straight close victory. Since then, they’ve won by double digits three straight times. It was 52-21 over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Last week they were off. Baylor suffered just its second loss of the year last weekend as they went down 30-28 at the hands of TCU. Coming off a loss and facing a rested OU team is not what we’d call a “good situation” for the Bears. Since the switch at quarterback to Caleb Williams, the Sooners have averaged 48.5 points/game. They are still only 8th in the CFP rankings, so look for them to make a definitive “statement” to the committee here. Lay it! Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13.5 | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Boise State is 14-1 all-time vs. Wyoming with the lone loss taking place in Laramie back in 2016. The first 10 meetings, all won by Boise, were decided by an average of 26 points/game. The last five have been closer games with four decided by single digits. The visiting team has covered 11 of the last 15 times. While we do acknowledge that this Boise team isn’t as good as years past, they are coming off their two most impressive wins of the 2021 season. They went to Colorado State and won 28-19 then last Saturday went to Fresno State and won 40-14 as a 4.5 point underdog. Wyoming also won as an underdog (+3) last week. They beat Colorado State 31-17. But the Cowboys’ previous four conference games had all ended in defeat and they went 0-4 ATS as well. This is a team that also struggled to beat UConn. While Boise has the same 5-4 SU record as Wyoming, the Broncos are at least 3-2 in conference play. They’ve lost two games this year where they had a double digit lead. So their record could be better. We like this to be a three touchdown win for the home side. Before last week’s win, Wyoming had not scored more than 21 points in any conference game. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh is having a better season than North Carolina. The Panthers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread while the Tar Heels are just 5-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. But UNC is coming off an impressive come from behind win over Wake Forest, who was undefeated. Impressive as the win was, the Tar Heels still gave up 55 points. They’ve allowed an average of 47 points their last three games. That is never good, but going up against a Pitt offense that scores 45 per game means real trouble. There have been four times this year that the Panthers have scored 50 or more points. One of those was last week as they beat Duke 54-29. That game would have ended up as an even bigger blowout had Pitt not allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. It hasn’t been just the last three games where UNC has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 33.4 points/game for the entire season and that number is second worst in the entire ACC. The Tar Heels haven’t won on the road in 2021 (0-3), are 1-5 ATS their last six games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS their last eight games following an ATS win. Lay it. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NIU Northern Illinois suffered its first conference loss of the season last week. It was 52-47 to Kent State. The Huskies sure don’t seem to have the oddsmakers’ respect. They were underdogs at Kent State and they are underdogs here to Ball State, even though they’re at home. Ball State is just 3-6 ATS. The Cardinals did not cover the spread in a 31-25 win over Akron last Tuesday. The week before that saw them lose at home to Miami OH. We remember BSU winning the MAC Championship last season, but this year’s team hasn’t been as good. NIU put up season highs in points and yards last week, despite losing. The Huskies have been in every game besides the loss to Michigan. They’re looking to end a two-year losing streak to Ball State. Before losing the last two meetings, they’d won 10 in a row. This game is going to go a long way in deciding the MAC West. We believe the home team gets the job done as they are 9-2 ATS L11 games after an ATS loss. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Home field advantage has not meant much in previous Ohio-Eastern Michigan meetings. Each of the last three times these teams have met, whoever has been the road team has covered the spread. The last two times the road team was an underdog and won straight up. So recent history is on Ohio’s side tonight. Long-term history is as well with the Bobcats owning a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS advantage over EMU going back to 1997. Ohio can’t make a bowl this year, but has covered four of its last five games and pulled an upset last Tuesday against Miami. They were 35-33 winners as seven point home underdogs. The defense shut Miami out in the first half. Eastern Michigan was also an upset winner last Tuesday as they downed Toledo 52-49 as a nine point dog. But their defense yielded a somewhat shocking 672 yards. With four losses by seven points or less, Ohio is better than its 2-7 record. We like them to keep this one close. Play on OHIO AAA |
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11-06-21 | UTSA -11 v. UTEP | Top | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTSA There are six undefeated teams left in College Football. Five of them sit among the top nine in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The sixth is little-known UTSA out of Conference USA, who did not even make the Top 25. Now the Roadrunners are in the Top 20 of both the AP and Coaches Polls. They are 8-0 and - for the most part - blown out the teams on their schedule. They’ve played three games decided by seven points or less. The last one was not one of those. In their first game ever as a ranked team, UTSA crushed Louisiana Tech 45-16 two weeks ago. Coming off a bye, the Roadrunners next face UTEP, another surprising team at 6-2. The Miners have covered five in a row, but lost last week 28-25 at Florida Atlantic. UTSA is actually better than UTEP against the spread, holding a 7-1 season mark in that regard. We think the bye week is big for them coming into the Sun Bowl and they’ve already beaten UTEP four years in a row. Three of the wins have been by double digits. The last time they visited, UTSA was also off a bye and they won handily. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FIU Yes, we’re taking a team that has not won a game all season. Butch Davis’ Florida International Panthers are 0-7 currently. They host a 2-6 Old Dominion team this week. FIU has been on quite the nosedive for some time now. They didn’t win a game last year either. Although that’s somewhat misleading as they played only five games in the pandemic shortened season. It’s been 14 straight losses (including a bowl) for FIU since they pulled a shocking upset over Miami FL (Davis’ former employer) as 20-point underdogs in the second to last game of the 2019 regular season. But Old Dominion has only three wins during that same time frame and two were against FCS programs. The other came last week against Louisiana Tech when they were four point home underdogs. The Monarchs have not won a road game since midway through the 2018 season. (They opted out of 2020). ODU is 1-15 straight up its last 16 road games. Now they are favored on the road. No thank you. Old Dominion has gone 25 straight games without winning by more than a field goal. FIU has won the last two meetings by 7 and 8 points. Play on FIU AAA |
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11-06-21 | Coastal Carolina -17.5 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina was in a tough spot in their last game. They were coming off a crushing last second loss to Appalachian State, which cost them an unbeaten season. Facing Troy, the Chanticleers overcame a slow start to win 35-28 but did not cover the 17-point spread. It was the first game this season where they did not score on their opening possession. But they still racked up over 500 yards of offense. With a couple extra days to prepare (Troy game was on a Thursday), Coastal should come out and lay it to Georgia Southern this week. At least that’s what we think. Georgia Southern is a program in flux right now. Earlier this week, they announced Clay Helton will take over as coach … next season. So acting coach Kevin Whitley is a bit of lame duck these last four games. The Eagles have won only once in their last seven tries. It was a tough loss last week to Georgia State and Coastal will be arguably the toughest opponent of the year. Earlier in 2021, the Eagles lost 45-10 to Arkansas. It’s probably going to be “one of those kinds of games” for them again here as Coastal Carolina averages 44.4 points/game. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Auburn v. Texas A&M UNDER 49.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is the only top 25 matchup on Saturday. The spot isn’t great for Auburn as the Tigers played Ole Miss last week. They won 31-20 but it was a hard fought, competitive game. Texas A&M didn’t have to play at all last week as they were on a bye. The Aggies have won three straight going back to their shocking win over Alabama. But Kyle Field is a place where Auburn has done well in the past. They’ve won all four previous visits to College Station. So we don’t see any value on either side in this Saturday afternoon showdown in the SEC. But we do love the Under, which is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 conference games and 9-3 the past 12 times that A&M has been off a bye. The Aggies have the #3 scoring defense in the land, giving up just 16.1 points/game. Only Penn State and Georgia have scored more than 23 on Auburn. So this one promises to be low scoring. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-06-21 | Army +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 21-14 | Win | 101 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY This game takes place in Arlington, Texas. Army marches into this week’s combat with a 4-3 record. But they’ve also lost three in a row. The most recent loss was two weeks ago against Wake Forest. It was a 70-56 game that featured more than 1,200 yards of offense. Typically, the kind of performance that Army turned in would be most teams. Two of the Black Knights’ losses have been to Power 5 teams. The other was to Wisconsin. Air Force is 6-2 and its losses came to Utah State and San Diego State. The San Diego State loss was two weeks ago and that’s the last time the Falcons have taken the field. So both service academies are coming off losses. As always, you’ve got to figure this will be a low scoring game. Underdogs have covered 12 of the previous 15 meetings of service academy teams (Army, Navy, Air Force) and won outright eight times. The last seven Army-Air Force games have averaged only 28 points. So you’ve almost got to take the points. Especially with Army beating Air Force three of the last four times they have played. Army needs two more wins to become bowl eligible, so this one matters more to them. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-05-21 | Utah v. Stanford +9 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STANFORD With a 4-1 record in conference play, Utah essentially controls its own destiny in the Pac 12 South. They just defeated UCLA, in a 44-24 rout, last week. That win put the Utes in sole possession of first place in its division. If they were to win tonight and against Arizona and Colorado, who are the South’s two worst teams, they are guaranteed a spot in the Pac 12 Championship Game, no matter what happens against Oregon on 11/20. That being said, this is a lot of points that the Utes are laying here on Friday night. We understand that Stanford has lost three in a row. But the Cardinal are the one team to defeat Oregon this year and that win came here in Palo Alto. Stanford has NEVER beaten Utah in four previous tries at home (also 0-4 ATS), so you know David Shaw is going to have his team hungry “after dark” tonight. The Cardinal were 21 seconds away from a win last week, but gave up a touchdown and a two-point conversion to lose 20-13 to Washington. They were -3 in turnovers in that game, which cost them dearly. Shaw’s team has stepped up in big spots this season, not just against Oregon, but also beating USC. We think they make this a close game. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL Louisiana goes for its eighth straight win Thursday night and we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty getting it. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0 at home this season, winning by an average of almost four touchdowns per game. They have put more than 40 on the board each of the last three times they’ve played at Cajun Field. This run includes a very impressive 41-13 bushwhacking of Appalachian State in another mid-week contest. Georgia State is the opponent tonight. The Panthers have won three straight games, but all were against teams at the bottom of the Sun Belt. It was a pretty lucky 21-14 victory last week at Georgia Southern, who turned the ball over three different times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly, that was the difference in the game. Remember that we said Louisiana has scored more than 40 in three straight home games? Unfortunately for Georgia State, they have scored more than 28 points in only one game this season and that was against a really bad Louisiana Monroe team. Look for this game to develop into a blowout. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There was certainly an abundance of scoring in last night’s “MACtion” with the three games totaling 225 points. We had the Over in Miami vs. Ohio, which got wild at the end with four touchdowns scored in the last five minutes. But it’s a whole different set of teams in action on Wednesday and in the case of Central Michigan at Western Michigan, we are taking the Under. To this point, neither team is seeing more than 58 combined points scored per game. Central Michigan averages 29.0 and gives up 28.4. Western Michigan also scores 29.0 points/game while at the same time giving up slightly less than CMU (27.3). We don’t expect this game to be 17-14 by any means, but the over/under line just seems a bit high to us. Central Michigan is 6-1 Under its last seven road games. Western Michigan allows only 19.8 points/game at home. Western has had two huge scoring games, one against Pitt and the other against Kent State, but has not exceeded 28 points in any of the other six. They were held to 15 by Toledo in their last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 52 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Ohio is 1-7 and looking to snap a three-game losing streak in MAC play. All three of those losses have been by seven points or less. Usually, this is one of the better teams in the conference. But with Frank Solich, the former head coach, retiring not long before the season started, things have gone downhill in a hurry in Athens. Rival Miami will take no pity on the Bobcats. The RedHawks have won two straight and three of four. The one loss in conference play was by one point, at Eastern Michigan. What we expect here is Ohio to end its streak of five consecutive games going Under the total. Their defense is allowing 31.1 points/game, so it isn’t very good. Take away the game vs. Akron, who is the worst team in the MAC, and the Bobcats have given up at least 28 points in every other game. The good news for the home team is that its own scoring average is up to 28.5 points/game in conference play. The Over is 5-1 in Ohio’s last six Tuesday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State +1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO STATE San Diego State still has an undefeated record. The Aztecs are 7-0. Linesmakers did not believe in them last week. They were three point underdogs at Air Force but won 20-14. It was the second game in a row where the Aztecs won in low-scoring fashion while being outgained. This week they’re back at home to face Fresno State. Fresno State was lucky to beat Nevada 34-32 last week. They had to stop a two-point try on the final play. San Diego State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game. They are seventh in the country with just 15.7 points/game allowed. The Aztecs are also better on special teams so they have distinct edges in two of the three phases of the game. Watch the line as SDSU is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as a home underdog. FSU is 0-6 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more pass yards. They allowed 476 last week. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY The only game Kentucky hasn’t covered is when they were a 31-point favorite vs. a FCS team. The Wildcats hadn’t lost a game straight up until two weeks ago when they fell 30-13 at Georgia. We took them with the points there. Fresh off a bye week and looking to get back in the win column, we look for UK to get the job done here against Mississippi State. The home team in this one has lost three of five. Two losses were close while the Alabama game wasn’t. Kentucky will badly want to win Saturday night as the last time they came away with a victory in Starkville was 2008. We love this spot for Kentucky, especially if they end up closing as the favorite. That’s because Top 15 teams favored by three or less over an unranked foe are 3-0 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS the past five seasons. The Wildcats have covered six straight SEC games, which is the longest active ATS win streak in the conference. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GEORGIA Georgia has never been a favorite of 14 or more points against Florida. But this is a special Bulldogs team ranked #1 in the country. The defense is making history, giving up only 6.6 points/game. No defense allows fewer yards/game than this one. It gives up only 208.3 and is also #1 in first downs allowed for the year (just 84). They rank #2 nationally both against the run and the pass. Georgia’s seven wins have been by a combined 220 points and they’ve beaten four ranked teams, the last three all by 17 points or more. This is obviously the best team in the country right now. They have won 11 consecutive games. So we don’t want to bet against them - even if Florida is better than its overall record (4-3). The Gators lost two of three before the bye. Making matters worse for them is that Georgia certainly remembers last year’s 44-28 loss that cost them a fourth straight SEC East Title. Seven of the last eight times these rivals have played, the game has been decided by 14 points or more. This one will be no different. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 8* on MICHIGAN STATE This weekend’s only matchup of undefeated teams takes place in the state of Michigan. It’s Michigan State facing Michigan. Both teams are in the top 10 and love to run the ball. They also share 6-1 ATS records. But the game takes place in East Lansing and the Spartans are coming off a bye. They are no strangers to being underdogs in this rivalry. All seven times they’ve faced a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team, Sparty has been the dog. They’ve won three of the games straight up. We think they can do that again. They’ve really proven to be just as good - on both sides of the ball - as compared to the Wolverines. We think they have an edge at quarterback too. For Michigan, McNamara is averaging just 7.64 yards/attempt, which is 61st in the FBS. Michigan State’s Thorne averages 243 yards/game and has 15 TD passes against just four interceptions. This is usually the kind of game Michigan loses under Harbaugh. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There is one team in College Football that has gone Over in all of its FBS games this season. That is Tulsa, who returns to the field on Friday off a bye. The Golden Hurricane face a Navy team whose last five games have all seen a combined point total of 47 points or greater. That’s significant because of where tonight’s O/U line currently sits. But we expect a low-scoring affair in the American Conference tonight. That may seem strange. Going over all the 2021 results for both teams, there has been just one game - Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force - that has seen less than 47 combined points scored. But Navy’s offense isn’t getting it done this year. They’ve put up more than 20 points just two times. They do not even average 300 yards/game. Their 279.6 yards/game average is fourth worst in the FBS! While Tulsa has scored 67 points and gained 1,000 yards its last two games, they too are not immune from a poor offensive effort. Four of their seven games have resulted in 23 or less points scored. In this game, the Golden Hurricane will not have the same number of possessions as they are used to having. This is because Navy knows how to control the clock. Tulsa’s defense only gave up two touchdowns in its last game. That one went Over only because their opponent got touchdowns from its defense AND special teams. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina OVER 56 | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This was a 44-24 game last year with ECU winning outright as an eight point underdog. That was their first win over USF since 2014. The Pirates came into last year’s meeting having lost each of their first two games by 20 or more points. Unfortunately, the win didn’t lead to any kind of turnaround in Greenville as ECU finished the 2020 season at 3-6. They’ve already matched that win total this season as they come into Thursday’s game at 3-4. USF is 2-5 and last Saturday saw them record their first win against an FBS opponent since 2019 when they beat ECU 45-20. We’re not positive as to who comes out on top this year (although it will likely be ECU), but you can feel safe in expecting another high-scoring battle. USF has scored 31+ in its last two games. But the Bulls have also given up 32 or more five times in 2021. ECU’s defense is also pretty bad, but the Pirates are averaging 33.3 points/game at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 USF games and 11-5 in East Carolina’s previous 16 conference games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE 6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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10-23-21 | Rice v. UAB OVER 44.5 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY AAA |
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10-23-21 | Illinois v. Penn State OVER 45 | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER AAA |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -149 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 8* on S ALABAMA ML Georgia Southern seemed a bit lucky to earn the ATS win last week at Troy. Not only were they down 24-3 early in the second half, but the Eagles found themselves outgained 409-301 for the game. It was their fourth loss in five weeks and now they head to South Alabama for a second straight road game. The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the prior seven meetings vs. the Jaguars. But the last two years the games have been close, with one going to double overtime. That 2OT game took place the last time the Eagles visited Mobile, which was two years ago. South Alabama comes into tonight sporting a better record than Ga Southern. The Jaguars are 3-2, although we should point out they’ve lost back to back games. Both were two point losses, however. The Jags' last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. But they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times they’ve been a home favorite of three points or less. Georgia Southern is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS the last five times they have been a road underdog of three points or less. Rather than lay the points in this Thursday night Sun Belt matchup, we will simply play the favorite on the money line. We fully expect South Alabama to win this game. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 57 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-09-21 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 53 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -117 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Louisiana Tech v. NC State OVER 55 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 48.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse UNDER 54 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Iowa State v. UNLV UNDER 52.5 | Top | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville OVER 66.5 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Ball State v. Penn State UNDER 58 | Top | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia OVER 55 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson OVER 51 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -155 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -155 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N'western ML The underdog has won this Big 10 matchup four of the last five years, and five of the last seven. Last November it was Michigan State pulling a 29-20 upset in East Lansing - as a 13.5 point underdog - one of only two wins Sparty had all last season. Northwestern entered that game 5-0 and was ranked #8 in the country at the time. It was a wild game that saw MSU first jump out to a 17-0 lead, only to then fall behind 20-17. Things got real wild late as two Northwestern turnovers led to Michigan State field goals. The Spartans formally put the game away with a fumble return for a TD on the final play. We think Northwestern, despite pretty significant roster turnover, will avenge one of its two defeats from a year ago. We don’t want to lay the points though. Rather, take the Wildcats on the money line Friday night in Evanston. They won all four games at Ryan Field last season. Michigan State is 2-5 straight up in its last seven road games. Mel Tucker has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball entering his second season as the head coach. Pat Fitzgerald always has a good defense at Northwestern. With MSU having questions at quarterback, the Wildcats won’t give up many points and they’ll win. Play NORTHWESTERN (money line) AAA |
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09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest UNDER 64 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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