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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Canadiens v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-2 win in Buffalo two nights ago as we cashed with the 'under'. We'll go right back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip in St. Louis. Despite the victory on Thursday, Montreal has still mustered only four goals in its three road games to date this season. The good news is, the Habs have played stout defense, limiting seven of their eight opponents this season to three goals or less. The Blues started the season on fire, scoring nine goals in posting consecutive wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken. Since then, St. Louis has been stymied, going 1-3 while scoring a grand total of four goals. Last time out, the Blues were lit up for six goals in a loss in Nashville but they won't have to contend with that same type of firepower here, noting they gave up just four goals in two meetings with the Habs last season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 48.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off a high-scoring affair last week as it rolled to a 44-21 win over UNLV in South Bend. The Irish have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season, though, and I don't expect that trend to change as they head to Syracuse to face the upstart Orange on Saturday. The fact that Notre Dame broke out offensively last week wasn't all that surprising. It was up against a sagging UNLV defense and after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss against Stanford the previous week, the Runnin' Rebels were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, I expect the Irish offense to get brought back to Earth against a terrific Syracuse defense that is in a bounce-back spot of its own off a blown opportunity at Clemson last Saturday. Credit the Orange for hanging tough for a half against the Tigers. It allowed a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then held Clemson out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. The Syracuse offense has seemingly gotten more conservative as the season has gone on (and the schedule has toughened up). Note that the Orange season-high for passes completed in a game is 22 and that came in a contest where they still threw for 'only' 277 yards and scored just 22 points in a narrow win over Virginia. Throwing on the Irish is not easy task. Only one of Notre Dame's opponents this year has thrown for 300+ yards and that was North Carolina in a game where it was playing catch-up most of the way. Only Marshall ran for 200+ yards on the Irish and it took 50 attempts to get there. You get the picture. Notre Dame scored 45 points in a 24-point rout of the Orange in last year's meeting but it was a nearly five-touchdown favorite on that occasion. The gap has certainly closed this year and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Two nights ago, these two teams combined to score 228 points in a double-digit Raptors victory. That outcome had more to do with both teams shooting the lights out than the pace of play. The 76ers have now gotten off 80, 83, 84, 80 and 79 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. They've held four of their five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Raptors. They've hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in all five games while limiting the opposition to just 77, 80, 76, 83 and 79 FG attempts. You get the idea. I'm confident we'll see both teams do a better job of defending the perimeter in particular in Friday's rematch and here we'll note that the 'under' is 32-16 in the 76ers last 48 games when playing on the road off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 196.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We can 'buy low' on the total in this matchup as both of these teams stumble into this contest from an offensive standpoint. The Ravens were involved in as strange a game as you'll see against the Browns last Sunday - a game that really had no business staying 'under' the total but ultimately did anyway (a few sour grapes on our part as we had the 'over' in that one). The Ravens were driving deep in Cleveland territory for the game-clinching score midway through the fourth quarter before a fumble gave the Browns new life. Cleveland would drive into Ravens territory before an untimely penalty pushed them back and too far for kicker Cade York to nail what would have been the game-tying field goal. Lamar Jackson attempted just 16 passes in that game - despite facing a Browns defense that was missing its best pass defender in CB Denzel Ward. Here, I expect Lamar to attack an injury-plagued Buccaneers defense relentlessly rather than continuously run into the brick wall that is the Bucs run defense. On the flip side, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense turned in an embarrassing performance against the undermanned Panthers in Carolina last Sunday. The quick turnaround might just help their cause here as they have no time to dwell on that disappointing result. The Ravens are dealing with cluster injuries in their secondary with key corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both battling through injuries and expected to play, albeit at less than 100% health on a short week. With the Ravens having cashed the 'under' in four straight games and the Bucs off three consecutive 'under' results, we'll go the contrarian route and call for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
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10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 232 | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met two nights ago in Houston with the Rockets pulling off the minor upset in a 114-108 victory, cruising comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold from a totals perspective on Wednesday, however. That was a slow-paced game for Houston - relatively speaking - as it got off just 90 field goal attempts marking a season-low. Yet the Rockets still scored 114 points. I'm confident we'll see the pace tick up here. Houston opponents have been 'filling it up' in the early going this season, making good on 45, 45, 48 and 44 field goals through four games. Monday's game marked the first time this season Utah held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, but again, it still allowed 114 points. The Jazz have hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 FG attempts over their last three games. Even in their season-opener when they got off just 83 FG attempts, they still scored 123 points in a rout of the Nuggets. In fact, Utah has made good on 42+ field goals in all four games this season. While Monday's contest between these two teams stayed 'under' the total, we're dealing with a lower total this time around and keep in mind, we're just one matchup removed from a game that produced 259 points between these two last March. Take the over (8*). |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Nets most recent game - a wild, 134-124 loss in Memphis two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as I don't believe the pace Brooklyn, or Milwaukee for that matter, has been playing at warrants such a high posted total. Note that Brooklyn has hoisted up just 89, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through its first three games. It quite simply shot the lights out against the Grizzlies on Monday - something I don't expect it to do again here, noting that the Bucks have only played two games, but have appeared to be in midseason form defensively, allowing just 36 made field goals in each contest. Like the Nets, the Bucks haven't exactly been pushing the pace at every opportunity. Albeit with a small sample size, they've gotten off just 84 and 85 FG attempts in their first two games but like the Nets, did shoot the lights out in their most recent contest, that coming against the lowly Rockets. Take the under (8*). |
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10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NHL board - in fact, it's about as high as an NHL total gets right now. I believe it will prove too high. The Panthers have allowed 1, 3, 5, 3, 3 and 2 goals through six games this season. That's fine. It's been the Florida offense that has struggled to get going or at least match the high expectations set for it entering the campaign, scoring 3, 4, 3, 4, 2 and 3 goals to date. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks have far-exceeded expectations offensively, particularly of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three contests. I don't see that continuing here. As I mentioned, the Panthers have been fairly stingy defensively save for one game in Boston and that was a difficult spot as they were at the tail-end of a three-game in five-night road trip. Take the under (8*). |
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10-25-22 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 223 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pistons first three games this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Washington. Both of these teams are coming off losses where the opposition stuffed the boxscore with Detroit allowing 124 points in Indiana and Washington yielding 117 points in Cleveland. The Pistons have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals in all three games despite getting off 90+ attempts in each contest. Noting that Washington has played at a relatively slow pace, hoisting up 91, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through three games this season, there's reason to believe Detroit's scoring opportunities could be even more limited here. After yielding a whopping 103 FG attempts to the Pacers last time out, I'm confident we'll see the Pistons try to 'ugly this one up' in an effort to salvage something from this three-game road trip. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series while the 'under' is also 55-35 in the Pistons last 90 road games following consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). |
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10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 | 124-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Most will be anticipating a track meet between these two star-studded squads on Monday night in Memphis. I'm not so easily convinced. After dropping both meetings last year, and allowing Memphis to dictate the tempo in each of those contests, I look for Brooklyn to make a concerted effort to slow things down on Monday. Note that the Nets have topped out at 89 field goal attempts across their six games to date (including the preseason). They scored 'only' 108 points in that game where they got off 89 FG attempts. Brooklyn checks in having held three of its last four opponents, again including the preseason, to 84 FG attempts or fewer. The Grizzlies have gone from 108 field goal attempts, to 98 to 79 in their three contests this season. On the flip side, they've allowed the opposition to get off 109, 93 and 90 attempts from the field. I do think the Grizzlies are a much better defensive team than they've shown, having allowed their first three opponents to knock down 44, 44 and 45 field goals. I think the slower pace of the Nets will aid them in getting their defense a little more settled in this one, noting that Brooklyn has been limited to 36, 29, 43, 37, 40 and 38 made field goals in its six games going back to the start of the preseason. The high-water mark of 43 came in a game where the Nets still scored just 107 points. In last season's two meetings with the Grizzlies, the Nets got off 82 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-22 | Stars v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have over-achieved offensively to this point this season but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Monday night in Ottawa. The offensive exploits of the Stars have out-shadowed their terrific defensive play through five games, limiting opponents to 1, 1, 1, 3 and 2 goals. Ottawa checks in having scored 18 goals over its last three contests so you have to figure Dallas will be cautious not to get involved in an ultra high-scoring game here. After allowing 4, 3 and 5 goals in their first three games this season, the Senators have settled down a bit defensively, holding the Capitals and Coyotes to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Note that last year's two matchups between these teams both totalled exactly five goals. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Sharks v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While the NHL as a whole is off to a high-scoring start to the season, these two teams have combined to post a 4-8 o/u record. I expect that trend to continue when they match up in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sharks have been held to 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 and 1 goal in their seven games this season. Playing the second of back-to-back days and facing a stingy Flyers defense that has allowed two goals or less in four of five contests this season, they're not likely to break out here. Philadelphia skated to a 3-1 win in Nashville last night, continuing its surprisingly hot start to the campaign. Since scoring five goals in their season-opener against the Devils, the Flyers have scored exactly three goals in each of their four games since. The Sharks did limit the Flyers to just two goals in each of last year's two meetings and should bring some confidence that they can contain them again here after holding the Rangers and Devils to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 the last 14 times the Sharks have played on the road off four losses in their last five games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. The Flyers have played a long-term 136-98 to the 'under' in home non-conference affairs. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last week. I expect a much different story to unfold as they match up in Los Angeles on Sunday, however. Seattle's 19-point performance against Arizona last Sunday was largely game-script related as it led most of the way and was able to take the air out of the football. I certainly don't anticipate it being so fortunate as a considerable underdog here. The Chargers were held at bay against a stout Broncos defense on Monday night but now have the opportunity to tee off on one of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Seahawks. After being held out of the end zone for the entire game on MNF, I look for Herbert to throw for multiple scores here. Note that only two other teams allow more yards per pass play than the Seahawks this season. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler was terrific on Monday and should pick up right where he left off here as the Seahawks have given up just shy of 4.7 yards per rush on the season. The question becomes whether Seattle can inflict some damage itself in comeback mode. I'm confident it can noting that the Chargers are a bit of a mess defensively with Joey Bosa sidelined and L.A.'s run defense as a whole virtually non-existent, allowing a ridiculous 5.8 yards per rush this season. Seattle rookie RB Kenneth Walker ran wild against the Cardinals last Sunday and while we're talking about a very small sample size, he does look like the real deal. Of course, QB Geno Smith has exceeded all expectations under center, elevating the play of everyone around him in a much more aggressive Seahawks offense than we're used to seeing. This game has shootout potential, noting that the 'over' has gone 11-1 the last 12 times Seattle has come off an outright underdog win over a division opponent at home, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 18-8 in the Chargers last 26 games played from October onward, totalling an average of 54.7 points along the way. Take the over (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 224.5 | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Blazers had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Suns last time out, attempting just 74 field goals in regulation time, yet still managed to prevail in overtime thanks to their solid defensive play. Off to a perfect 2-0 start this season, the Blazers have limited their first two opponents to just 85 and 84 field goal attempts. Now they face an inefficient Lakers offense that has managed to knock down 40 field goals once in two games but needed 93 FG attempts to reach that total. The problem that could be looming for the Blazers is that their own offense has been lukewarm. They've made good on just 39 and 36 field goals through two games and going back to the start of the preseason have topped out at 83 FG attempts. Only one of four meetings between these two teams last season got 'over' 212 points and that was a game where Portland got off a whopping 102 FG attempts. This marks the second-highest posted total in the last five matchups in this series and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions opened the season with four consecutive 'over' results but were shut out in a game that stayed well 'under' the total in New England prior to their bye week. I think we see the 'under' cash again here as Detroit returns to the field for a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Of course the big news is the likely return of QB Dak Prescott for the Cowboys. I'm not convinced all that much will change with the Cowboys offense, at least not in his first game back, however. Dallas has the running game rolling and isn't likely to start airing it out with Prescott six weeks removed from his last game action. On the other side, I think there's a good chance we see Lions head coach Dan Campbell come out with a run-centric gameplan as he looks for his team to play 'smash-mouth' football in an effort to break out of their two-game slump, and effectively shorten proceedings against the heavily-favored Cowboys. While Dallas possesses an elite, ball-hawking secondary and a fierce pass rush that could feast on Lions QB Jared Goff if given the opportunity, you can run on this unit, noting that it has allowed 4.4 yards per rush this season. Here, we'll note that the Lions have played 6-0 to the 'under' when coming off consecutive losses under head coach Dan Campbell, as is the case here, with those contests totalling an average of just 34.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Kings v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the 'over' cash in four consecutive games while the Capitals have delivered back-to-back 'over' results. This amounts to 'getaway day' for both teams, however, noting that Los Angeles will fly back home to open a three-game homestand while Washington hops on a plane for a four-game road trip at the end of tonight's proceedings. I'm anticipating more of a 'low-event' affair here on Saturday with the 'under' having gone a perfect 2-0 in this series last season and 9-1 the last 10 times the Kings have played on the road in a 6-in-10 situation, as is the case here. Note that both teams are a little banged-up early in the season with the Kings missing Aaron Iafallo and the Caps recently losing Connor Brown to the I.R. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 62.5 | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in excruciating fashion in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU last Saturday. That was a 30-23 game with minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before TCU tied things up and we ultimately saw the Cowboys convert a 4th-and-9 in the first overtime that ended up sealing our fate with an 'under' 68.5 ticket. A lot had to go right (or wrong in our case) for that 'over' to hit. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate this week as we go back to the well with the same play, this time as Oklahoma State returns home to host Texas. The Longhorns are hitting their stride defensively after securing a hard-fought 24-21 win over Iowa State last Saturday (we won with the Cyclones plus the points in that game). Meanwhile, I don't think there's really any reason to get down on the Cowboys defense, despite coughing up last week's game. That had a lot to do with the offense not being able to stay on the field in the second half. Clearly, Oklahoma State got a little complacent after building an early 24-7 lead in that game. The Cowboys defense fell out of 'attack mode' from that point and certainly looked like it let down its guard up a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Texas has performed about as well offensively as anyone could have expected to this point of the season but opponents like Alabama and Iowa State have laid out a pretty good blueprint in terms of how to slow the Longhorns down and I do think Oklahoma State has the personnel in place to make good on that. Both teams want to run the football - in fact, Texas has topped out at 34 pass attempts this season - and I think we see the two ground attacks gain enough headway to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-22 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 60 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. I think both teams have a keen interest in settling things down and avoiding a back-and-forth shootout in Waco on Saturday. Kansas certainly knows now that it's not going to hang with the big boys in the Big 12 by going touchdown for touchdown. That's especially true given the Jayhawks are without two of their best offensive players in QB Jalon Daniels and RB Daniel Hishaw. I do think the Jayhawks defense is better than it has showed over the last two games, in which it allowed 90 points against TCU and Oklahoma. It also faces a more manageable offensive opponent in Baylor this week. The Bears got involved in a somewhat unlikely track meet against West Virginia last Thursday. They've had a few extra days to prepare for this one and I expect them to come out strong defensively off consecutive losses in which they allowed a combined 79 points. The Bears manhandled the Kansas offense led by QB Jason Bean in last year's lone meeting, winning by a 45-7 score in Lawrence (we won with Baylor in that game). In fact, you would have to go back 11 meetings - all the way to 2011 - to find the last time the Jayhawks topped the 14-point mark against Baylor. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 in Baylor's last 27 games following a contest that saw both teams score 30+ points, as is the case here. After turning the football over five times in their last two games, the Bears will look to 'manage' this contest a little better, noting that the 'under' has cashed 10 of the last 12 times they've played at home after losing the turnover battle in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.2 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Tulsa v. Temple OVER 52.5 | 27-16 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing losses although Tulsa has had an extra week to lick its wounds following a 53-21 beatdown at the hands of Navy. The Golden Hurricane accomplished quite a feat of defensive futility in that game, allowing the Midshipmen to put together seven scoring drives over a 26-minute stretch from the first to third quarter. That wasn't the first time Tulsa got torched in short order this season. Remember, back on September 24th at Ole Miss it yielded four consecutive Rebels touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch in the second quarter. There were also brutal defensive performances against Wyoming and Northern Illinois to open the campaign. The good news is, the Golden Hurricane offense is anything but lifeless and matches up well against a Temple defense that just got rocked for 70 points at UCF last Thursday. After jumping ahead 10-7, Temple was outscored by a ridiculous 63-3 margin over the next 40 minutes of game action. Are the Owls what we would call 'fake tough guys' on defense? The case can certainly be made for that being the case as that was the second straight game they were bullied after handling three consecutive lukewarm opponents in FCS squad Lafayette, Rutgers and UMass. Last year, Temple could only muster 10 points in a 41-10 rout at the hands of Tulsa. I do think the Owls have a little more punch on offense this year, even if QB E.J. Warner (yes that's Kurt's son) was awful last week. Jose Barbon is a standout wide receiver and I don't think Tulsa has anyone in the secondary that can bottle him up, noting that he's gone off for 237 yards on 12 catches over the last two games - against tougher defensive opponents than he'll face here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 223.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers showed very little interest in controlling the tempo of their opponents last season and we saw more of the same in the preseason and again in their season-opener against the Warriors two nights ago. Even with Steve Kerr limiting his starters minutes, the Warriors still got off 99 field goal attempts, making good on 45 of them. In the preseason, the Lakers yielded their opponents 103, 105, 95, 88, 97 and 94 field goal attempts with all but one of those opponents knocking down 41 or more (the exception was a game where they still gave up 119 points against the Suns). I don't anticipate the Clippers coming out of the gates in midseason form defensively as they took part in only three preseason tilts against NBA opposition, allowing 40+ made field goals in each of their last two contests (those games totalled 236 and 241 points). On both occasions where the Clips got off 80+ FG attempts in the preseason, they managed to make good on at least 40. Given the pace the Lakers have yielded to the opposition, the opportunities should certainly be there for this Clips offense on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 14-9 in the Lakers last 23 games following a loss against a division opponent and better still, 8-3 when that loss came by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect this showdown between two NBA title contenders in the Mavs and Suns to have a bit of an old-school feel to it on Wednesday night, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Mavs played only three preseason games, allowing 32, 39 and 41 made field goals with the latter coming in a game where the Jazz got off 91 field goal attempts (and still scored only 101 points). For their part, the Mavs got off 85 or fewer FG attempts in all three games, knocking down 35, 35 and 38 field goals along the way. The Suns opened their preseason slate with a stunning 134-124 loss to the Adelaide 36ers. In three preseason tilts against NBA opposition they limited their foes to 82, 82 and 88 FG attempts with none of those teams knocking down more than 37 field goals. Offensively, the Suns topped out at 39 made field goals and that was in a game where they got off a whopping 105 FG attempts against the Lakers. Expect this 'battle of the titans' to have a defensive flavor on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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10-19-22 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 215.5 | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams were 'filling it up' all preseason long and I expect more of the same as they match up in Wednesday's season-opener. The Bulls won three of their four preseason tilts, scoring at least 115 points in all four games. In those contests they knocked down 43, 50, 43 and 50 field goals, without any of those affairs being aided by overtime. Those are staggering results when you consider the pace most teams tend to play at during the preseason. Defensively, there are warts to deal with, however. Note that Chicago allowed its opponents to get off 93, 88, 96 and 92 field goal attempts in those four games. The Heat enjoyed a successful preseason as well, reeling off four straight victories after opening with a loss to the T'Wolves. Like the Bulls, their offense appeared to be in midseason form, making good on 42, 41, 37, 38 and 40 field goals. The pace Miami played at over the course of those five games was notable as it hoisted up 94+ FG attempts on three occasions. This is one of the lowest totals on Wednesday's board and I don't think it's warranted. Take the over (9*). |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Georgia State has attempted 30+ passes only once previously this season and that came against a non-existent Charlotte defense. The Panthers want to run the football and aren't likely to stray too far away from that gameplan against the Mountaineers on Wednesday. They've gained 200+ rushing yards in all but one of their games this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to get there against an Appalachian State defense that has absolutely erased its opponents' ground attacks in three of its six games this season. While two of the Mountaineers last three opponents have racked up exactly 172 yards on the ground, those two teams needed 46 and 59 rush attempts to get there. If anything, Appalachian State's offense has regressed as the season has gone on. The Mountaineers did complete 40-of-53 passes for 395 yards against Texas State last time out, but scored 'only' 24 points in a losing effort. That marked the first time this season they had attempted more than 35 passes in a game and was clearly game script related. I don't think there's any question they want to be more balanced on offense, and game script should favor a run-heavy gameplan here with the Mountaineers checking in as double-digit favorites. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 61 points but that had a lot to do with Georgia State's carelessness with the football (or perhaps more to do with the Mountaineers ball-hawking nature a year ago) as Appalachian State scored 45 points fuelled by three interceptions. This year's Mountaineers squad hasn't been nearly as turnover-happy - yet to force more than two turnovers in any of their first six games. It's been a different story for Georgia State as it has forced eight turnovers in its last two games alone and 15 on the season. That should only lead to Appalachian State putting an even stronger emphasis on taking care of the football and churning out long, clock-eating drives on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-7 the last 26 times Georgia State has come off a conference win, leading to an average total of 51.5 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-17-22 | Kings v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings have already been involved in a couple of wild, high-scoring affairs this season, including last time out as they prevailed by a 7-6 score in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Detroit is fresh off a 5-2 victory in New Jersey - its second straight win to open the campaign. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as each team aims to pick up its third victory. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-6 with the Kings coming off a game that totalled eight or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times Detroit has played at home after scoring 4+ goals in its last game, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 23-8 with the Wings coming off a victory by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.3 goals scored in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Wings have played to an average total of only 4.6 goals when coming off a contest in which they scored 5+ goals going back to the start of last season (12-game sample size). Take the under (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins OVER 45 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings 27-22 win over the Bears last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the Dolphins this week. As I noted in last week's analysis, Minnesota is a team built for high-scoring affairs. We're starting to see the offense come around under the new coaching staff, consistently scoring in the high-20's in three consecutive weeks. This is another fine matchup, particularly for the Vikings passing game with Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard dealing with groin injuries on both sides and his running-mate Byron Jones still sidelined. Minnesota's offensive line has been a work-in-progress but it allowed just one sack against the Bears last Sunday and if given time in the pocket, Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson should feast on Miami's banged-up secondary on Sunday. On the flip side, rookie QB Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins. The fact that head coach Mike McDaniel is willing to turn to Thompson is telling as all indications are that veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater likely could have played. I think McDaniel knows Thompson gives the Fins a better chance of pushing the football down the field against a very beatable Vikings secondary. Miami's dynamic WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been relatively quiet in recent weeks but this sets up as a smash spot, should they be able to shake off their nagging injuries. There's nothing imposing about the Vikes defense as it is highly-susceptible to the deep pass (it allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt) and hasn't been able to stop the run with any consistency (yielding 4.4 yards per rush). Last week was the first time Minnesota held an opposing team under 100 rushing yards but that's only because the Bears were trailing much of the game and didn't stay committed to running the football as a result. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 21-5 the last 26 times the Vikings have played on the road following a home win in which they didn't cover the spread and 10-1 in their last 11 games following an ATS loss of any kind. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times Miami has come off an ATS defeat, which is also the situation here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah UNDER 65 | 42-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Utah at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Utes had to come away embarrassed by their defensive performance against UCLA last week, suffering a 42-32 defeat. While that game ended up getting into the 70's, it actually saw just seven points scored in the first quarter and the score was 14-10 UCLA at the end of the first half. Things didn't go Utah's way in the second half and I certainly expect it to make amends here, by keeping proceedings far more under control. Keep in mind, the Utes are without one of their top offensive players from the start of the campaign in TE Brant Kuithe. They can ill afford to get involved in another shootout here against an undefeated USC squad. We didn't see it much last week as the Utes were forced to play from behind most of the way but they certainly will want to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game with long, clock-churning drives. I'm not convinced the big play potential will be there against a solid Trojans defense. Save for allowing two unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns in a blowout win at Stanford back in Week 2, the USC defense has been outstanding this season. It had a brief lapse early in the second quarter last Saturday against Washington State, allowing two touchdowns in just over three minutes but that was it as it held the Cougars to just those 14 points in another lopsided victory. The last time we saw the Trojans play on the road they showed the ability to win a 'grind-it-out' type of affair, prevailing by a 17-14 score at Oregon State on September 24th. It is worth noting that USC didn't reach the end zone in that contest until the first minute of the third quarter. The Beavers did lay out a pretty good defensive blueprint for how to slow the Trojans offense, something the Utes will look to replicate here - again, job one will be simply holding onto and moving the football on offense in an effort to keep their defense fresh - something they weren't able to do last week. USC QB Caleb Williams is going to be a handful for the Utah defense but it is worth noting that he hasn't been running the football at will as much as you might expect. In two previous road games, he ran for just 31 yards on 18 attempts. He's topped out at nine rushing attempts in five of six games so far this season. While last year's matchup between these two teams ultimately totalled 68 points in a Utah road upset, we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around (last year's game saw a closing total of just 52.5 points). I'm not sure that it's warranted. Take the under (8*). |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington OVER 73 | 39-49 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. All of the ingredients are there for a true shootout between the Wildcats and Huskies on Saturday in Seattle. These two teams were involved in an ugly 21-16 affair in favor of Washington last year. Keep in mind, a low-scoring game was to be expected as the total was set in the mid-40's for that one. Expect a much different story to unfold here. Arizona might not have the worst defense in the FBS but it's in the conversation. Opponents have had their way with the Wildcats, both on the ground and through the air, and Washington is well-positioned to take advantage as well - not to mention in a foul mood off consecutive road losses against UCLA and Arizona State. If the Wildcats are to have any hope of staying competitive in this one they're going to need QB Jayden De Laura to come up big. My concern for the Huskies defense here is their secondary. I don't think Washington has anyone capable of containing Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, who is capable of blowing the top off even the most skilled secondaries. Meanwhile, the Washington offense should feast in this matchup. There's really nothing the Wildcats defend particularly well, noting there was a 14-minute stretch where they yielded three touchdowns against Oregon last week...and then another seven-minute period where they gave up three more TD scores...that's right, in the same game. With Washington's tendency to let up late (it has allowed 29 fourth quarter points in its last two victories), the potential is certainly there for late scoring in this one. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-1 the last 11 times Washington has come off an outright loss as a double-digit favorite against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks were involved in a relatively high-scoring game in Colorado last night, dropping a 5-2 decision against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. That was a wild contest, with six of the seven goals coming by way of the power play, including four of Colorado's five tallies. At least credit the Blackhawks, who most have pegged as likely bottom-feeders in the Western Conference, for at least holding the Avs to just one even-strength goal. While the 'Hawks did manage to score two goals in that game, it's undoubtedly going to be a slog for them offensively. Note that they actually fired only 17 shots on goal in their season-opener. Now, playing the second of back-to-back nights against a Vegas squad that will be looking to tighten things up after yielding three goals in Los Angeles two nights ago, I look for Chicago to struggle here. We won with the 'over' in the Golden Knights season-opener but were certainly fortunate to cash that ticket as it was a 1-1 game early in the third period before the floodgates opened. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 with the Knights playing at home off a road game that saw both teams score 3+ goals, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. That record goes back to when Vegas joined the league. Take the under (8*). |
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10-13-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. Baylor enters this contest off a 36-25 road loss against Oklahoma State on October 1st. Off its lone previous defeat this season it responded by absolutely manhandling Texas State the next week, yielding just seven points in a lopsided victory. While it certainly faces a tougher bounce-back spot on the road against West Virginia this week, I'm confident we'll see the Bears defense rise to the occasion. West Virginia scored just 20 points in a blowout loss at Texas last time out, failing to score in that game until the closing seconds of the first half - after it had already fallen behind 28-0. It did add two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was with the Longhorns letting down their guard after leading by a 35-7 score. Here, I'm expecting a much tighter contested affair, as indicated by the short pointspread. Note that two games back, we also saw the Mountaineers offense struggle to get going against Virginia Tech, failing to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half in that contest as well. Against a Bears defense that will certainly be in a foul mood off a loss, things won't get any easier here. While Baylor did ultimately put up a respectable 25 points in that aforementioned loss to Oklahoma State, it's worth noting that it was held out of the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter, and that was after the Cowboys had jumped ahead 23-3. Things opened up a bit for the Bears from there but again, Oklahoma State was playing with a considerable lead, a game script I don't envision unfolding in this one. We'll note that the 'under' is 8-3 in Baylor's last 11 games with the total set between 49.5 and 56 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'under' also checks in 6-3 in West Virginia's last nine contests when following a road loss, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 10th meeting between the Lightning and Rangers in the last 10+ months after the two teams did battle in the playoffs last June. Of the previous nine meetings over that stretch, seven of those contests stayed 'under' the total. We're likely to see a goaltending matchup of two of the best in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. Vasilevskiy got in limited work in the preseason, allowing just five goals on 70 shots. Shesterkin wasn't quite as sharp, yielding six goals on 55 shots but I'm confident he can 'flip the switch' now that the games count for real. I do feel that the Lightning continue to weaken offensively with each passing year, losing key contributor Ondrej Palat this offseason. Defensively, they're still set with Hedman and Sergachev leading the way. You could make the case that the Bolts third defensive pairing of Haydn Fleury and Phillipe Myers could be the top pairing on several teams. Expect goals to come at a premium on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Guardians' Wild Card series against the Rays saw just four runs scored in 24 innings. I expect a much different story to unfold as Cleveland moves on to face the Yankees in the Bronx on Tuesday. Gerrit Cole will get the start for New York. The Guardians are certainly familiar with him as he's made 10 career starts against them. Only once has Cole completely shut them down - that performance coming in a game back in April of this year. Keep in mind, that contest still totalled 12 runs. High-scoring games have been the norm when Cole faces Cleveland with four of his last five outings against it reaching at least 12 runs. Cal Quantrill will counter for the Guardians. He faced the Yankees just once previously this season and that was his only career outing against them. New York had little trouble in that contest, reaching Quantrill for three earned runs on six hits while striking out only two times and walking on three occasions over 6 1/3 innings. It's worth noting that the Guardians have been a considerably higher-scoring club on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game compared to their 4.3 rpg season scoring average. Likewise for the Yankees at home where they've averaged 5.2 rpg compared to their season scoring average of 5.0 rpg. Take the over (8*). |
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10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 51.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday. I think both of these teams have a keen interest in getting this one over with as quickly as possible, albeit for much different reasons. For Texas A&M, it's only legitimate shot at staging another upset win over Alabama comes by keeping offensive drives alive with its ground game and effectively shortening this contest. Job number one for the Aggies will be taking care of the football after a slew of miscues led to a blowout loss at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). It's telling that last week's setback was A&M's worst defensive performance of the season as it really wasn't all that bad in that regard, holding Mississippi State off the scoreboard until nearly nine minutes into the second quarter and not allowing an offensive touchdown over an 18-minute stretch from the last minute of the second quarter until the third minute of the fourth quarter. For Alabama, it simply wants to pick up a win and move on to next week's critical showdown against currently undefeated Tennessee. After getting an injury scare with QB Bryce Young last week - but still exploding for 49 points in a rout of Arkansas - I think we see the Crimson Tide settle things down here. After a strong first half, Alabama played far too loose defensively in the third quarter of last week's game, something I believe we'll see it make amends for back in Tuscaloosa this week. Note that the 'under' is 34-18 the last 52 times the Tide have returned home following a road win in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 51 | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Elks and the 'under' in this contest as I expect points to come at a premium, similar to the most recent meeting between these two teams when the Blue Bombers prevailed by a 24-10 score back on July 22nd. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Edmonton allowed 300+ passing yards in a game. Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers have yielded 330+ passing yards in each of their last two games but draw a 'get right' spot defensively against the offensively-challenged Elks here. Note that Winnipeg has held all but one of its seven opponents to 20 points or less at home this season. That being said, the Elks have limited five of their last six opponents to 26 points or less during a strong stretch since late August. They've also gained 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and will look to effectively shorten proceedings for their best shot at an upset win here. Note that the 'under' is 22-10 the last 32 times the Blue Bombers have played at home after winning three out of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.7 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-22 | BC v. Toronto OVER 48.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions blowout win over the RedBlacks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as B.C. heads to Toronto to challenge the Argos. Everything has been clicking offensively for the Lions this season and I don't see the Argos defense standing in their way here. Note that even two games back when Toronto forced a whopping six turnovers against a bad RedBlacks offense, it still gave up 15 points. Last week against Calgary the Argos were ripped for 161 yards on just 24 rushing attempts. The good news is, the Argos offense can score, particularly here at home. Prior to last week's ugly 29-2 defeat they had put up 24+ points in four consecutive games. Seeking revenge for a 44-3 loss in B.C. earlier this season I'm confident we'll see Toronto show up and show out offensively in this one, noting that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times it has come off two ATS wins in its last three contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 51.7 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 61.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up in early action on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off a wild 38-33 win over rival Florida two weeks ago, elevating it into the nation's Top-10. That game really told us all we need to know about the Volunteers. While they can score at will, they'll also give up their share of points. After a first quarter that saw just a single Tennessee field goal in terms of scoring, the rest of the contest was a wild ride. The second quarter saw four touchdowns over a 13-minute stretch. Three touchdowns were scored over an eight-minute stretch in the third quarter and three more touchdowns were tacked on in another eight-minute period in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, outside of a road date with Pitt earlier in the season, the Vols hadn't really faced an opponent that could provide much heartburn offensively. The Tennessee offense has been outstanding through four games. What I really like about this offense is the way it pours it on even after games are long decided. Note that two games back against Akron, the Vols entered the fourth quarter with a 49-3 lead and proceeded to tack on two more touchdowns. In its season-opener, Tennessee added a fourth quarter touchdown to finish with 59 points in a rout of Ball State. The Vols will likely need all the points they can get on the road against a surging LSU squad here. The Tigers haven't been all that impressive offensively but I do believe a breakout is coming. We saw an expected defensive slugfest on the road against Auburn last Saturday but earlier in the season we saw a glimpse of what might be in store for this offense in a 31-16 win over Mississippi State. After getting off to a slow start, we saw LSU score three touchdowns in just over a nine-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels threw for more than 200 yards while running for just shy of 100 against a pretty good Bulldogs defense on that night. In a game where the Tigers could have easily taken it easy and cruised to a comfortable win, they scored five offensive touchdowns over a 15-minute stretch in the first half against FCS squad Southern University back in Week 2. The explosiveness is there and I think we'll see it in a shootout against the Vols here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Arkansas v. Mississippi State UNDER 62 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 97 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Arkansas enters this game sporting a 4-1 o/u mark this season while Mississippi State has seen each of its last two contests go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold when the two teams meet up on Saturday in Starkville. It's no secret that Arkansas wants to run the football and in this particular matchup, certainly wants to go on long, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep Mike Leach's air raid offense off of the field as much as possible. Note that the Razorbacks have yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season. They've been racking up the rushing yardage but they've also been running the ball 40, 50 and even 60 times per contest. While they've gained close to 300 rushing yards in two meetings with Mississippi State over the last two years, they've needed 80+ attempts to get there. The Bulldogs can sling it with underrated QB Will Rogers at the helm. With that being said, looking back to last year's meeting, they completed 36-of-48 passes for 417 yards and still 'only' scored 28 points in a three-point defeat. While Mississippi State did put up 42 points against a good Texas A&M defense last week (we won with the Bulldogs in that game), they actually went from just under one minute remaining in the first quarter until over two minutes into the fourth quarter without reaching the end zone. They're also just two games removed from a 31-16 loss at LSU in which they didn't score a touchdown from two minutes remaining in the first half on. The last time we saw the Hogs play away from home - two weeks ago against Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium in Dallas - they scored twice in a five-minute stretch in the first quarter but then managed just one touchdown the rest of the way, that coming when they were trailing by nine points nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 the last 35 times Mississippi State has played at home after a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State UNDER 50.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with San Jose State in its rout of Wyoming last Saturday but I'll go a different route and back the 'under' as the Spartans return home to host UNLV on Friday. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off a tougher-than-expected 31-20 win over New Mexico last week. UNLV gave up two first quarter touchdowns in that contest but didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way in that come-from-behind victory. Concerning was the fact that it took the Rebels until over midway through the third quarter to reach the end zone. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the UNLV offense this season. Two games back against a weak Utah State squad, the Rebels scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch early in the first half but then managed just one more touchdown the rest of the way. Here, UNLV will face a tough San Jose State defense that has given up just two touchdowns over its last six quarters of football. This will undoubtedly be UNLV's toughest defensive test since being held to just 14 points in a six-point loss on the road against California back on September 10th. Last Saturday, the Spartans put up 33 points in the win over Wyoming but that was largely a result of the Cowboys offense not being able to stay on the field, effectively leaving their defense out to dry. San Jose State controlled the football for more than 36 minutes in that contest. It is worth noting that it wasn't until more than eight minutes into the second quarter that the Spartans managed to reach the end zone in that game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times San Jose State has come off consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-22 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. HJK Helsinki OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets Razgrad at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. With these two teams occupying the bottom two spots in the Group C table, we can anticipate both 'going for it' on Thursday in Helsinki. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that Ludogorets Razgrad enters having gone winless in its last three matches, failing to record a clean sheet in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, its defensive deficiencies have led to the 'over' 2.5 goals going 7-2 in its last nine matches across all competitions. It's been a similar story for HJK Helsinki. It has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Neither side appears set on its back line - Helsinki's only saving grace has been keeper Conor Hazard but he's been relegated to bench duty on many occasions. Razgrad can be exploited on the right side of its defense and is likely to have little-used Simon Sluga between the sticks. While this isn't the most attractive matchup on paper, I do expect some offensive fireworks on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams have been scoring down the stretch, looking generally disinterested in doing anything other than 'playing out the string'. I expect nothing different in Wednesday's season-finale in Cincinnati. Adrian Sampson has actually been one of the Cubs most reliable starting pitchers this season, checking in with a 3.81 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for his opponent on Wednesday, Graham Ashcraft. He's had a trying rookie campaign in Cincinnati and will be facing the Cubs for the fourth time. On a positive note, he has limited the walks (2.3 per nine innings) and home runs (0.9 per nine innings). With the Reds having dropped each of his last three outings against the Cubs he'll be out for revenge here. While it's had a lot to do with facing disinterested opponents, the two bullpens have been terrific down the stretch with the Cubs relief corps posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games and the Reds 'pen recording a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-22 | AC Milan v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chelsea and AC Milan at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Injuries are the story ahead of this Group E showdown on Wednesday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors with Milan decidedly worse off. With that being said, I'm still confident the visiting Italian side can find a goal in this contest, noting you would have to go back nine matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. Over that stretch, the English side has seen six of eight contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. As for Milan, it checks in with five of its last six matches going 'over' that number, with both sides finding the back of the net in all six of those contests. Milan enters this match particularly vulnerable at the back-end due to injury-related absences and I'm confident we'll see the Blues take full advantage. Take the over (8*). |
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10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Josh Winder will get the start for the visiting Twins. The White Sox will be getting their second look at him in less than a week after plating three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against him on September 28th. He didn't give up a home run in that outing but that was an unlikely occurrence as he has been tagged for at least one long ball in four of his last five starts, giving up two in three of those outings. For the season, Winder owns a 4.90 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while yielding 1.5 home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 4.07 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings (not to mention just shy of 10.0 hits per nine frames). The Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander since September 4th, having scored four earned runs off of him in 10 innings in those two previous contests. Between the two bullpens this season, we've seen a whopping 47 combined blown saves so the potential for late runs is there as well. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-22 | Napoli v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Ajax and Napoli at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I expect plenty of fireworks in this showdown between Group A's top two teams in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Napoli sits atop the group having recorded two victories in as many tries in this stage. It will be in tough trying to hold off a terrific Ajax side here, however. Note that both teams check in having seen five of their last six matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. More importantly for our purposes, both sides have shown the ability to strike first. Ajax has scored first in eight of its last nine matches while you would have to go back six contests to find the last time Napoli didn't find the back of the net first. In that vein, we've also seen Dutch side Ajax lead at halftime in seven of its last nine matches. However, it has gone winless in its last three contests across all competitions while Napoli brings an incredible 21-match undefeated streak into this one. Both sides are explosive up front. Mohammed Kudus has gone scoreless in his last three matches, including a pair of games for his national team, Ghana. I expect him to make amends with Ajax here. Napoli has the firepower to answer, however, noting that it just tallied three first half markers in its Serie A victory over Torino this past Saturday. Take the first half over (10*). |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have seen all three of their games stay 'under' the total this season and I expect more of the same on Monday night. A lot of what San Francisco wanted to do offensively went out the window when QB Trey Lance went down to a season-ending injury in Week 2 against Seattle (we won with the Niners in that game). Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of running an NFL offense - and the Niners offense in particular - but I don't think we're going to see many blowup spots from this unit. This is obviously a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that knows Garoppolo's tendencies and gives up little against the run. Compounding matters for San Francisco is the absence of all-world tackle Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday night. I'm higher on his backup, Colton McKivitz, than most but the absence of Williams is only part of the problem as the San Francisco o-line continues to deal with issues on the interior, issues that the Rams standout defensive line can exploit. TE George Kittle has been a virtual non-factor this season and that's unlikely to change as he's needed in pass protection far too often. On the flip side, the Rams offense looks broken. Yes, there was a strong first half against the Falcons two weeks ago but outside of that this unit has had a miserable time coming up with big plays, whether on the ground or through the air. Here, L.A. will likely be banging its head against the wall trying to run on a Niners defense that yields just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Last week against a bad Arizona defense, the Rams were gifted excellent starting position (on the Cardinals 35-yard line) on their first drive but needed nine plays to eventually settle for a field goal. They were again handed excellent field position on their next drive and did convert a Cooper Kupp touchdown but from there it was three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out and three-and-out on their next four drives. Speaking of Kupp, he has owned the Niners recently, however it's worth noting that even in a game where he racked up 140+ receiving yards and two touchdowns in last January's NFC Championship, the Rams still only managed to score 20 points. While I do expect both offenses to move up and down the field in this one, I question how many drives they'll end with 7's rather than 3's. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 5-2 in the 49ers last seven games off a road loss and better still, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in the Colts upset win over the Chiefs last Sunday but did win with Indy plus the points. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play as Indy stays at home to host the division-rival Titans, who check in off their first win of the season. This is a blow-up spot for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor against a Titans defense that gives up a whopping 6.1 yards per rush this season. Everyone is down on Colts QB Matt Ryan, who I'll admit looks a little washed at this point of his career. With that being said, Michael Pittman Jr. is back healthy and Ryan does have a 300+ yard passing game under his best this season (back in Week 1 against Houston). I'm willing to bet against the Titans defense here. On the flip side, the Titans offense couldn't have looked any worse against Buffalo two weeks ago. That was very much game script related, however, as they dug a massive hole and had to throw their gameplan out the window. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Titans use RB Derrick Henry effectively against a Colts defense that will once again be without LB Shaquille Leonard. Credit the Colts defense for stepping up against the Chiefs last week but the Titans can score on this unit, as we saw in last year's wild 34-31 victory on this field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-22 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 46.5 | 19-34 | Win | 100 | 60 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two teams this season - a contest that resulted in 65 points back in late June. Ottawa has seemingly thrown caution to the wind offensively down the stretch, attempting 33, 31, 40 and 54 passes over its last four games. After scoring just 19 and 15 points in its last two contests, I look for the RedBlacks to bounce back with a big offensive performance here. That's because B.C.'s defense has sagged. It has allowed its three highest rushing yard totals of the season over its last four games. The Lions have also yielded their opponents 24+ pass completions in three of their last five games. Each of their last two games came against the Calgary Stampeders and in those two contests they allowed 53-of-72 passes for 595 yards. Even three games back, when the Lions limited the Alouettes to 16-of-24 passing and only 163 yards through the air, they still gave up 31 points. I understand why we're actually working with a lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season and it has a lot to do with the Lions quarterback situation. Regardless, I'm anticipating a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
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09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 8 pm et on Friday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the last four games. The first was a low-scoring affair (we won with the 'under' in that contest) as the Blue Bombers eked out a 20-18 win. Playing on a short week, the rematch was a track meet with Winnipeg prevailing by a 54-20 score. Here, I'm anticipating something closer resembling the first matchup as the two teams come off their respective bye weeks. It's worth noting that this total is higher than both of the previous meetings. When we last saw Winnipeg take the field, it was routed by a 48-31 score in Hamilton. Needless to say it will be focused on getting things back under control defensively on Friday. We're still talking about one of the league's best defensive teams. The Riders lost 26-24 against the lowly Elks last time out. Edmonton ran wild in that game, racking up 202 rushing yards on just 22 carries. I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly as Saskatchewan has allowed just 95 rush yards per game this season. It is worth noting that the Riders did hold Edmonton to 13-of-24 passing for 237 yards and haven't allowed an opponent to pass for 300+ yards since August 19th against B.C. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-6 the last 22 times the Riders have played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, with that spot producing an average total of just 44.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Bombers have come off an upset loss by 17+ points, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 47.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 4 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Houston at 7 pm et on Friday. The lookahead total for this game was much higher than the number we're currently dealing with and rightfully so. I still feel there's considerable value backing the 'under' on Friday night in Houston. Tulane is off to an impressive 3-1 start but it will be in a foul mood after suffering a 27-24 defeat at home against Southern Miss last Saturday. The Green Wave offense got off to a predictably hot start thanks to a schedule that saw it open against UMass and FCS squad Alcorn State. Tulane impressed in a 17-10 road win against Kansas State but that upset victory was obviously fuelled by its defense as it held the Wildcats out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. Even in the losing effort against Southern Miss last Saturday, the Green Wave allowed only two offensive touchdowns (the Eagles also returned an interception for a touchdown). While Houston has been involved in some high-scoring games, its offense hasn't been the juggernaut that most were expecting. The Cougars barely eked out a 34-27 win over Rice last Saturday. In that contest they scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. They only prevailed thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Save for a 38-30 loss against Kansas, the Houston defense has played well. It's worth noting that the Cougars jumped ahead 14-0 early in that game against the Jayhawks and probably figured they would cruise the rest of the way. In a road date against Texas Tech in Week 2, Houston allowed a pair of second quarter touchdowns but that was it until overtime (that game totalled 63 points but included 23 points in two overtime sessions). The Cougars season-opener against UTSA needed three overtimes to decide. That game didn't feature any scoring until the second quarter and totalled only 48 points in regulation time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Dolphins 21-19 upset win over the Bills on Sunday after cashing with the same play in their thrilling come-from-behind shootout win over the Ravens the week previous. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play for a third consecutive week. Buffalo not-so-mysteriously employed a 'keep-away' strategy against the Dolphins on Sunday, clearly doing so in an effort to protect their severely undermanned defense, particularly in the secondary. The Bills effectively shortened the game, churning out long drives and eating plenty of clock but it ultimately worked to their detriment as they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns, not often enough at least. Here, I expect the Bengals to go on the attack early and often on offense, noting that they've already attempted 53, 36 and 36 passes in their first three games, with the latter tally coming in Sunday's lopsided win over the Jets - a game where you would have assumed game script would have led to the opposite gameplan. With Joe Mixon banged-up, I'm not convinced we'll see the Bengals go run-heavy here. We finally saw their much-maligned offensive line start to come together in Sunday's win and I'm confident we'll see further progression here. The Dolphins secondary is ripe for the picking in my opinion, especially with CB Xavien Howard still nursing a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy dose of Bills WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. As for the Miami offense, whether Tua Tagovailoa can go or not (he's dealing with head/back injuries - shrouded in a cloud of mystery as of Monday), I'm confident we'll see Mike McDaniel employ an aggressive gameplan, knowing his team will likely need to score more than the 21 points it put up on Sunday in order to stay undefeated for another week. The Bengals couldn't have faced a weaker slate of opposing quarterbacks through three weeks, going up against Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Still, they allowed 674 passing yards on just 68 completions. We already know the Dolphins can play fast and put up points playing from behind after their massive Week 2 comeback against the Ravens. That's the projected game script here as well as they check in as a road underdog against the Bengals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 in the Bengals last eight games when coming off a double-digit victory and a modest 11-9 in the Dolphins last 20 games following an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two high-scoring games to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Dean Kremer will take the ball for the playoff-hungry Orioles. Kremer is coming off a complete game shutout against the Astros - an incredible feat to be sure. However, here he's in a tough spot as he makes his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Note that prior to tossing that complete game shutout he had allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be seeing Kremer for the third time this season and over the course of his career, the right-hander has posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four starts against Boston. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will counter for Boston. He pitched five shutout innings against the Orioles just a couple of weeks ago. I'm confident we'll see the O's make the necessary adjustments here. Note that when Baltimore previously saw Hill on May 30th, it plated six earned runs in just four innings. Both bullpens are a mess right now. Baltimore's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 7.25 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox relief corps recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The 'under' cashed in all three games between these two teams last week but since then the Braves have reeled off three consecutive 'over' results in a series in Philadelphia. You would have to go back to September 16th to find the last time the Nationals posted an 'over', but I look for that to change tonight. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He's been a different pitcher in his last three starts compared to four rocky outings back in April. With that being said, he still owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.33 WHIP at the big league level this season and here the Nationals will be seeing him for the second time in less than a week after scoring one run on four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings against him last week. Note that Elder allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season but has gone three consecutive big league starts without giving up a single long ball. I'm not convinced that will continue. Cory Abbott will counter for Washington. He's been awful this season, posting a 6.09 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.85 runs per nine innings. The Braves will be getting their second look at Abbott after plating four runs on six hits including a home run over four innings last week. Abbott didn't strike out a single batter while walking two in that contest. The Nationals bullpen is a concern as well as it has logged just shy of 33 innings over its last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's two meetings between these teams were relatively low-scoring, lopsided affairs in favor of the Bills. While Buffalo has looked incredible through the first two weeks of the season, I do expect it to get its first test here with Miami coming in brimming with confidence following last week's come-from-behind victory in Baltimore. We won with the 'over' in both of these teams' games last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Buffalo knows how to play only one way on offense and that's fast. The Bills are well-positioned to pace this affair as well with WR Gabriel Davis likely to return and Stefon Diggs coming off an explosive performance against the Titans and likely to eat against Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard, who is nursing a groin injury. The Bills have injury concerns of their own on defense. Already down Tre'Davious White, they've got several key cogs banged-up and questionable to play this Sunday (although I do expect all of them to suit up, they won't be 100% healthy) in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips. Last week we saw Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel scheme up another masterful offensive gameplan to exploit the Ravens defensive weaknesses at the back-end (due to injury as well). He should be comfortable teeing up Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill again in this one given the state of the Bills defense playing on a short week. Miami's ground game has been an afterthought through two weeks and it should remain that way here given the Bills stout nature defending the run (although the possible absence of Phillips would downgrade that run defense). I'll resist the temptation to go the contrarian route and stick with the 'over' with these two teams for one more week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-22 | Connecticut v. NC State UNDER 50 | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and N.C. State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Connecticut's 59-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big House last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Huskies travel to Raleigh to face N.C. State. UConn's only hope of staying even remotely competitive in this game is by running the football with the backfield tandem of Victor Rosa and Nathan Carter in an effort to effectively shorten the game. It couldn't gain any sort of traction in that department against Michigan - in fact, QB Zion Turner was the team's leading rusher in that contest with just 42 yards. Still, the game reached 'only' 49 points as the Huskies were shut out. N.C. State exploded offensively against an overmatched FCS opponent in Charleston Southern two weeks ago but aside from that, hasn't been nearly as explosive as Michigan, for example. Last week against Texas Tech, N.C. State didn't reach the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and from there scored just one more offensive touchdown. On the flip side, the Wolfpack held a powerful Texas Tech offense out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half. This is a 'win and move on' type of spot for N.C. State as it opens its ACC schedule with a tough road date against Clemson next Saturday. While Michigan was able to topple the total all on its own last Saturday, I don't expect the Wolfpack to do the same here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-24-22 | Central Michigan v. Penn State UNDER 61 | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Central Michigan's wild season-opening 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State but I did figure at that time that we would go back to the well with another 'under' play involving the Chippewas at some point. This looks like the right spot as the Chips head back on the road to face an undefeated Penn State squad that is coming off a key blowout win at Auburn last week. It generally takes two teams to topple a total in this range and I'm not convinced the Chips will do their part in this spot. Central Michigan did roll to a 41-0 win over FCS squad Bucknell last week but it's worth noting that it didn't reach the end zone until there were less than five minutes remaining in the first half in that game. They 'only' led 20-0 through three quarters before Bucknell eventually wore down defensively. I certainly don't expect CMU to wear down an elite Penn State defense here. Note that two games back, CMU took 10 minutes to score a touchdown against South Alabama and then didn't reach the end zone again until more than six minutes into the third quarter. The Chips will simply be looking to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game to give themselves any sort of chance after that ugly loss against a similarly tough opponent, Oklahoma State, earlier this month. Penn State has been better than advertised offensively through three games although I do think last week's 41-12 result was a little deceiving (we missed with the 'under' in that game). The Nittany Lions scored just two first half touchdowns in that game, including one less than two minutes before halftime. It was only in the second half where Auburn had a number of defensive miscues and lacked concentration and execution in yielding 27 Nittany Lions points. Here, I expect to see Penn State 'manage' this game (note that in a previous game against another MAC opponent, Ohio, the Nittany Lions ceased scoring from a minute or so into the fourth quarter on in a 46-10 victory). Penn State's Big Ten schedule picks back up again next week and I'm sure it would like to make this tune-up contest as uneventful as possible. Take the under (8*). |
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09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 63 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on August 20th. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a wild 48-31 upset win over the Blue Bombers last week. Chalk up that offensive explosion as an anomaly as they had been held to 25 points or less in eight of their last 10 games previously and just 56 points combined over their last three contests. The Alouettes delivered their best defensive performance of the season last time out, posting a 31-10 victory over the B.C. Lions before their bye week. It's important to note that the Ti-Cats win last week was boosted by three Winnipeg turnovers, noting that Hamilton actually gained 'only' 97 yards rushing and 327 yards passing despite an ultra-efficient 25-of-32 game through the air. Hamilton has now gone four straight games without rushing for 100+ yards as a team. One-dimensional offenses don't tend to enjoy sustained success in the CFL. Speaking of one-dimensional, the Als aerial attack has been sputtering as they've completed 22 or fewer passes while throwing for 256 yards or less in four of their last five contests. Noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed completions on just 64-of-100 passes while forcing six turnovers over the last three games, Montreal will probably be looking to stay run-centric here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 147-112 with the Ti-Cats seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 51.1 points. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Hamilton has played on the road following a non-division game, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 36.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night as the Cubs delivered their third straight victory while handing the Pirates their seventh consecutive defeat. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest as dictated by the poor starting pitching matchup. The book is already out on Cubs rookie Javier Assad and it's not a good one. Assad has been touched up for nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks, not to mention three home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 1/3 innings. While the Pirates bats have been quiet, we know they're capable of outlier performances as they just hung eight runs on the Yankees three nights ago. Bryse Wilson gets another turn in the Buccos rotation out of necessity only. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings, those numbers rise to 7.67 and 1.67, respectively. To make matters worse, the Cubs will be seeing Wilson for the third time this season having already plated six earned runs in nine innings against him. They also faced him twice last season, scoring six earned runs in eight innings. You get the picture. Even if the starters do manage to pull rabbits out of their hat in this one, we have the potential for late runs with a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over the last seven games and a Cubs 'pen that has posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 blown saves on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Montenegro v. Bosnia & Herzegovina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair as the top two teams in League B, Group 3 do battle in Zenica on Friday. Through four matches, these are the only two squads in the group to have posted positive goal differentials. Note that we saw Bosnia and Montenegro match up back in early June, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Note that Bosnia enters this match having gone undefeated across its last five contests and will of course have the benefit of hosting this one. More importantly, it has seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Montenegro as four of its last five contests have totalled two goals or less. Dzeko is certainly a big-time scoring threat up front for Bosnia but I like the setup of the Montenegro defense with Vucacic and Vesovic in excellent form and goalkeeper Milan Mijatovic having recorded a clean sheet in his most recent international match, a 3-0 win in earlier Nations League play against Romania. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 64 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-22 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Angels spot starter Tucker Davidson probably isn't long for a big league rotation. He wasn't able to stick with the Braves organization and has struggled mightily since joining the Angels, posting a 5.99 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while allowing just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in 42 2/3 innings of work this season. The Rangers will counter with a struggling pitcher of their own in Dane Dunning. He checks in having allowed 18 earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 24 1/3 innings. Dunning owns a 4.49 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings this season. Here, Dunning will be facing the Angels for the fifth time this season. Los Angeles should be happy to see him noting that he owns a career 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven career starts in this series. Neither bullpen is anything to write home about and with both starters likely to make early exits, the opportunity should be there for plenty of tack-on runs late. Take the over (8*). |
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09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as two underrated starters went head-to-head in Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen. Here, I think the pendulum swings the other way as we have perhaps two overrated (I use that term in a relative sense) starters in Cristian Javier and Shane McClanahan taking the hill. Note that we haven't seen consecutive meetings between these two teams stay 'under' seven total runs since back in the 2020 postseason. Javier enters this start after tossing six shutout innings last time out but that performance came against the light-hitting Tigers. Prior to that he had given up a home run in three straight starts, walking six in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Rays saw Javier once previously, that coming last season as they chased him after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 5-4 victory. McClanahan hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts - the first time he's accomplished that feat all season. I'm not convinced he's had his best stuff lately, noting that he hasn't recorded double-digit strikeouts in a start since way back on July 2nd after doing so four times in a 12-start stretch at that time. Note that six of McClanahan's last seven starts have gone 'over' 6.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Bills season-opening blowout win over the Rams in Week 1. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as we're dealing with a lower posted total, albeit against a weaker offensive opponent than they saw last week (the Titans can't perform much worse offensively than the Rams did in the opener). I can't help but feel that the Bills are bound to get involved in some shootouts until they get healthier on defense. Already without CB Tre'Davious White they'll be missing DT Ed Oliver and possibly DT Tim Settle as well on Monday with the latter two opening the door for a big game for Titans RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill may not appear to have many weapons at his disposal on paper but I liked what I saw from rookie WR Treylon Burks last week and guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods are capable wideouts as well. There's little I need to say that hasn't already been said about the Bills offense. They're one of the elite units in the league and will catch the Titans missing a couple of key cogs defensively with CB Kristian Fulton and DT Da'Shawn Hand forced to miss time. The Bills do have their own injury concern on offense with WR Gabriel Davis listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Even if he can't go, I still expect the Bills to go off against a very beatable Titans defense. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 with the Bills coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.6 points in that situation. The 'over' has also cashed in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. If you've followed my plays in recent years, you know that I like to pick my spots with 'over' plays in Baltimore, where the Ravens carry a reputation as a defensive juggernaut but simply haven't been that team for quite some time. Here, we can anticipate the Dolphins attacking a banged-up Ravens secondary relentlessly, with first-year head coach Mike McDaniel seemingly bent on playing to his offense's strengths and feeding the electric WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Not to be outdone, I expect the Ravens to continue to attack downfield with a severely limited backfield that may or may not get J.K. Dobbins back on the field this week. The Patriots actually marched up and down the field on the Dolphins defense last Sunday but simply couldn't capitalize with touchdowns. The Ravens are better-suited to finish off drives with points thanks to Lamar Jackson's dual threat ability. This one has sneaky shootout potential in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M OVER 44.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Texas A&M at 9 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Late in the week the Aggie announced that Max Johnson would get the start at quarterback in place of Haynes King. More of a pocket-passer capable of elevating his receivers, I don't mind the move and will stick with the play on the 'over'. This total has taken a nosedive since opening, rightfully so in the eyes of most after Texas A&M was held to just 14 points in an upset loss against Appalachian State last Saturday. I'm confident we'll see the Aggies offense bounce back in a high-profile matchup with 2-0 Miami this week. We won with the 'under' in the Hurricanes 30-7 rout of Southern Miss in searing southern Florida heat last Saturday. Miami feasted on a one-dimensional Golden Eagles offense on that day. While the Canes did lose standout WR Xavier Restrepo in that victory, I'm confident others can step up in his absence on Saturday. I think it's important not to write off teams after one bad performance and that's the case with A&M here, particularly on offense. QB Haynes King was awful last week but keep in mind he's just one game removed from passing for 364 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut. Highly-touted RB Devon Achane was held in check by Appalachian State last week as well. Again, here I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from the electric RB who did return a kick for a touchdown in last week's defeat. Take the over (8*). |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 53 | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and LSU at 6 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Mississippi State's rout of Arizona last Saturday. We probably deserved a better fate but the scoring fizzled after a 22-point first quarter and the game ultimately finished just a shade 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bulldogs are off to a roaring start offensively and that's to be expected as they have all of the pieces in place and a head coach that knows how to get the most out of those pieces in Mike Leach. I like the way Mississippi State has continued to pour it on late in its first two games, even with the outcome already all but decided. The Bulldogs have scored four fourth quarter touchdowns. All most can think about when it comes to LSU is that disappointing season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State. Few were paying atttention but the Tigers absolutely exploded offensively last week against FCS squad Southern, putting up 37 points before the game was even a quarter old. Incredibly, LSU has now scored a whopping 11 offensive touchdowns over essentially the last five quarters of football (the Tigers scored with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter of their season-opener against Florida State). Last week's matchup between these two teams totalled 53 points and that's where this total sits at the time of writing. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-22 | Penn State v. Auburn UNDER 48 | 41-12 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Auburn at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis short with this being a late addition to Saturday's card. Last year's meeting between these two teams totalled exactly 48 points, which just happens to be the total being offered at most books this time around. Penn State 'only' scored 28 points in that game despite completing 29-of-33 passes for over 300 yards. Auburn 'only' scored 20 points despite rushing for just shy of 200 yards. Here, I look for the defenses to step up. Penn State has shredded through a pair of subpar defensive opponents in Purdue and Ohio to open the season, uncharacteristically lighting up the scoreboard for 81 points through two games. Auburn opened the season with a 42-point outburst against FCS opponent Mercer but then only managed 24 points in a sleepy win over San Jose State last week. While I do think we see both offenses move the chains consistently - I think ending drives with touchdowns could prove difficult here. Penn State's secondary bottles up the Auburn pass-catchers and the Tigers get to Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford early and often. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-22 | Rutgers v. Temple UNDER 44 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday. Last year, we hit one of our biggest plays of the season on Rutgers minus the points against Temple in an eventual 61-14 rout. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this year’s rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. Rutgers blew the doors off FCS squad Wagner last week, scoring 66 points in a 59-point victory. Let’s not get too carried away by that result, however. The Scarlet Knights are just one game removed from scoring just 22 points in a narrow win over Boston College in their season-opener. There are still question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt have split time under center (I’m rarely a fan of the time share at quarterbackat this level). Temple dropped its opener by a 30-0 score at Duke but rebounded for a 30-14 win over FCS squad Lafayette last Saturday. Note that after scoring a touchdown in the game’s first five minutes against Lafayette, the Owls didn’t reach the end zone again until the final three minutes of the first half. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in the third quarter when the result of the game was still hanging in the balance, up by a 21-14 score. I won’t knock the Temple defense too much for that ugly loss at Duke in Week 1. To its credit it did hold the Blue Devils out of the end zone over the game’s final 37 minutes and got very little help from its offense in that one. Here, I’m confident the Owls offense can move the football just enough to keep their defense fresh and ultimately limit the scoring in this contest. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-22 | Connecticut v. Michigan OVER 57.5 | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 120 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Wolverines have passed every test through their first two games, hanging 51 points on Colorado State and 56 points on Hawaii. Now they get another cupcake matchup against Connecticut and I look for them to do more than enough offensively to help this one ‘over’ the total. Last Saturday we saw Michigan score six offensive touchdowns in the first half alone. I liked the way it closed that game, tacking on two more touchdowns even though the game had long been decided. It was a similar story in Week 1 against Colorado State as the Wolverines sputtered a little bit early, settling for three first half field goals (to go along with two touchdowns) but ended up tacking on three touchdowns in the game’s final 21 minutes. Connecticut has actually shown some signs of life offensively this season, scoring 20, 28 and 14 points through three games. While that may not seem like much, when you consider how punchless the Huskies have been in recent years, it’s a step in the right direction. Defensively, however, UConn remains a mess. Last week, it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the game’s first 43 minutes against Syracuse. The Huskies also got torched for three offensive touchdowns in an 11-minute stretch in the second quarter in their opener against Utah State. Take the over (8*). |
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09-16-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. The Kansas City bats were quiet once again but I think a change of scenery will serve them well as they head to Fenway Park on Friday. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the visiting Royals. He's had a miserable rookie campaign and things certainly haven't gotten any better down the stretch as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings, yielding four home runs along the way. His last four road starts have resulted in games totalling 23, 13, 10 and 14 runs. Michael Wacha has actually been terrific for the Red Sox this season but I can't help but after stringing together three consecutive quality starts on the road, I think he gets a dose of reality back at home. The 'under' cashed in each of Wacha's first five starts this season but high-scoring games have been the norm since then as the 'over' has gone 8-5-1 over his last 14 starts. The last time he pitched here at Fenway Park back on August 26th we saw 17 total runs in a game against the Rays. The Royals bats have been quiet but they still average 3.8 runs per game away from home this season and I think that will be enough to help this one 'over' the total on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
AFC West total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a division game on a short week at this early stage of the season, I'm not anticipating a lot of first half offensive fireworks between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night. Note that this same matchup produced just 17 and 24 points in the first half in two meetings last year. The Chargers have seen six of their last seven September games stay 'under' the total in the first half and the 'under' is 9-4 in the first half in all Chargers games where the first half total has been set at 25 points or more going back to 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have appeared in two Thursday night games over the last two seasons and both got off to low-scoring starts with the 'under' cashing in the first half. In the long-term picture, the 'under' is 35-19 in the first half in the Chiefs last 54 games played in the first month of the season. I'm not convinced the Kansas City offense is going to be quite as explosive as we saw in last week's rout of the Cardinals, noting that Arizona's blitz-happy nature on defense really opened things up for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Chargers can stay home a little more and still generate pressure with the likes of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the outside. On the flip side, the Chargers always seem to generate a ton of early season hype before fizzling late. I don't expect them to roll into Arrowhead and lay waste to a good Chiefs defense - at least not early in Thursday's contest. Take the first half under (10*). |
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