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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: There's a discrepancy in first five innings totals being offered at a variety of books in advance of this one. I'm fine with playing the 'over' as high as 4.5 runs. Both of these teams closed out their respective LCS' with relatively low-scoring games but that hasn't been the norm during these playoffs. The Braves enter this series having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. The Astros have seen the 'over' cash in eight of their last nine and 11 of their last 13 contests. Here, rather than play the full game 'over' the total we'll stick with the first five innings only. Charlie Morton gets the call for the Braves. The veteran right-hander's best start of the playoffs to date was his first, back in the NLDS against Milwaukee. In two starts since then he has allowed seven hits, seven walks and four earned runs in only 8 1/3 innings, striking out 10 along the way. Keep in mind, he struck out nine in his first start of the postseason. He didn't look confident in his command in his lone start against the Dodgers and now faces an even tougher opponent with the Astros entering this series hitting .287 as a team and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. As we predicted in our play on the 'under' (which we lost thanks to a late explosion from the Astros offense) in his most recent start, Valdez matched up well against the Red Sox, and at Fenway Park in particular. Here, I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate. Note that Valdez owns a 1.48 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with nine of those going 'over' the total. In his two previous playoff starts here at home he was tagged for six earned runs on 13 hits in only seven innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll aim to avoid two bullpens that have been admittedly sharp. Between the two 'pens, we've seen just one blown save in these playoffs with the Braves relief corps having posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and the Astros checking in with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*). |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders haven't met a low-scoring game they didn't like and off another one last night in Arizona (they won 3-0) we'll call for a tightly-contested affair on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Likewise, the 'under' is 16-5 with the Knights coming off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 5-3 loss to the Oilers. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals scored as well. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army UNDER 53 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. The bye week came at the right time for Wake Forest as it was very fortunate to remain undefeated in spite of awful defensive performances against Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive weeks heading in. This is a far stronger defense that it has shown as far as I'm concerned and now it gets a tough, albeit different test against Army's triple-option offense on Saturday. I expect the Demon Deacons defense to rise to the occasion. On the flip side, Army knows it needs to tighten things up after suffering consecutive losses - its first two defeats of the season - against Ball State and Wisconsin. The Black Knights defense certainly wasn't bad in either game - in fact, this is a unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, but it knows it will need to be better against a dynamic Wake Forest offense on Saturday. Having scored 35+ points in each of its first six games this season, Wake Forest is certainly in line for some regression offensively and this would appear to be an ideal spot for that as this has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (9*). |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring games last time out with the Oilers holding on for a 6-5 win over the Ducks and the Coyotes dropping their third straight game to open the season by a 7-4 score against the Blues. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday in Glendale. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-4 with the Oilers playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Also note that the Oilers check in allowing only 2.5 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in their last contest over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have given up an average of only 2.3 goals when coming off a home loss by two or more goals over the last 2+ seasons. The situation hasn't come up all that often over the years but when the Coyotes play at home with a total of 6.0 or higher, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-6 clip, good for an average total of just 5.1 goals scored. It's been a while since these teams last met but when they did, the Coyotes skated to a low-scoring 3-0 win here in Glendale back in 2020. In fact, four of the last five meetings in Arizona have totaled five goals or less. Take the under (7*). |
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10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's game struggling with the Canucks off consecutive losses and just 1-3 on the season and the Blackhawks yet to pick up a single win through four games. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Blackhawks coming off a a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals. The 'over' has cashed at an identical 15-6 clip with the Canucks coming off two losses in their last three games over that same stretch, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the Canucks have had a tendency to 'let go of the rope' on long road trips, having given up a whopping 4.5 goals on average after playing three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with a 15-game sample size. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. It's been a while since these two teams have met but three of five matchups since the start of 2019 have totaled at least seven goals and going back further, 10 of their last 12 meetings have reached at least six goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the 'under' in this one, largely due to the fact that the Ducks are coming off a wild 6-5 loss in Edmonton while the Jets have seen their last two contests total seven and nine goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Ducks playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average of only 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets have posted a 14-26 o/u record, averaging only 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. Interestingly, Winnipeg also averages just 2.4 goals per game when playing at home off an 'over' result over the last 2+ seasons. On a positive note for the Jets, they allow only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the same stretch. Take the under (6*). |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Much like the ALCS, the 'over' has ruled the NLCS, cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to reverse on Thursday, however, as the Braves send Max Fried to the hill in hopes of closing out this series. Fried has of course been outstanding this season, and particularly in the playoffs, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two postseason starts. He has incredibly worked at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, allowing more than two earned runs only twice over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with Fried taking the hill as an underdog priced between +100 and +150, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 runs. Also note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Braves playing on the road after putting up nine runs or more in their previous contest, with an average total of just 5.5 runs scored. The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter but we do know this is likely to be a 'bullpen game' for them. Despite trailing in this series, the Dodgers 'pen has held up well recently, recording a collective 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the under (5*). |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in last night's Game 3 matchup - in fact, we've won with the 'over' twice already in this series. With each of the last five meetings between these two teams going 'over' the total and both teams entering on six-game 'over' streaks, it's no surprise that we're working with a double-digit total tonight. I believe it will prove too high. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 with the Astros playing on the road after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 8.2 runs. Houston is averaging just 4.0 runs with an average total of 8.2 runs in 27 previous situations where it was coming off a loss by four runs or more this season. The presence of struggling veteran Zack Greinke for the Astros is of course a concern. One thing he doesn't lack at this stage of his career is command, and it's worth noting that he has posted a better-than-MLB average hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Nick Pivetta stepped into a pressure-packed situation against the Rays in the ALDS and tossed four shutout innings in his most recent appearance for the Red Sox. His overall numbers aren't great this season but I do think he can keep the Astros bats at bay in this one as Houston faces a lot of pressure down 2-1 in this series. Take the under (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Jets and Wild on Tuesday night in the State of Hockey. The 'under' has actually combined to go a perfect 4-0 in games involving these teams this season but that only helps keep Tuesday's total at a reasonable number. Note that the Jets managed to score three goals despite firing only 23 shots on goal in Saturday's loss in San Jose. In Winnipeg's season-opening 4-1 loss in Anaheim it recorded 34 shots on goal. Here, we find the Jets averaging 3.3 goals per game when coming off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons. When playing three or more consecutive road games, they check in averaging 3.5 goals per contest. As for the Wild, the 'over' has gone 17-7 when they come off consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Similarly, the 'over' is 37-22 the last 59 times they've come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, good for an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars have seen the 'under' cash in all three games so far this season while the Penguins have delivered 'over' results in all three of their games to date - despite playing without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Penguins playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-12 with the Stars having given up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. Pittsburgh's home-opener totaled seven goals but featured only 46 combined shots on goal. The Pens allowed only 20 shots in the game. After giving up a whopping 73 shots on goal in their first two games, the Stars tightened things up allowing only 27 shots in a losing effort in Ottawa on Sunday. Take the under (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With Nathan MacKinnon ready to take the ice for the first time this season, we'll take a flyer on the 'over' as the Avalanche play their first road game of the season in Washington on Tuesday night. I think the Capitals are going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season. Washington's blue-line anchors John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov aren't getting any younger and the Caps are only average between the pipes (Ilya Samsonov is expected to get his first start of the season tonight). In this spot, we'll note that the Caps have posted a 14-3 o/u record when coming off a game where three goals or less were scored over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here following Saturday's 2-1 home loss to the Lightning. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. Also note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the Capitals coming off consecutive home games, a spot in which they've averaged 3.6 goals with those games totaling an average of 6.7 goals over the last 2+ seasons. Even without MacKinnon on the ice, the Avs have scored seven goals through two games this season. They average a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take the over (5*). |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Coyotes v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis brief with puck drop going shortly in Buffalo. Arizona will give Karel Vejmelka his first NHL start in goal while the Sabres go with Dustin Tokarski. Of course, the Yotes were involved in a wild 8-2 loss in Columbus two nights ago while Buffalo rolled to a blowout win over the Habs. Expect plenty of goals in this one as well, even with both teams fairly short on scoring depth up front. Take the over (5*). |
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10-16-21 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 69.5 | 0-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The fact that the 'under' has cashed in Duke's last two games and each of Virginia's last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we're working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke's defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they've been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don't get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We've also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can't help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia's offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven't had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*). |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a classic pitching duel between the Dodgers and Giants last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the Red Sox and Astros open the ALCS on Friday. Chris Sale certainly isn't the same pitcher he once was and isn't likely to work deep into the game for Boston in the series-opener. He was chased after allowing five earned runs in just an inning of work against Tampa Bay last round. His 10 starts this season have totaled 18, 6, 14, 5, 21, 8, 17, 6, 12 and 20 runs...you get the picture. Astros starter Framber Valdez faced the Red Sox twice during the regular season with those two outings coming over a six-day stretch in early June. Boston wasn't hitting very well at all at that stage of the season. It's a different story now as it enters this series having scored 26 runs in its last three games. Valdez has made six starts since the beginning of September with those games totaling 12, 15, 10, 3, 14 and 13 runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-8 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less this season, producing an average total of 10.5 runs in that situation. Take the over (6*). |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Thursday's fifth-and-deciding game between these storied rivals. The last time the Giants sent Logan Webb to the hill was in the opener of this series. They could have scored a single run and won that game as Webb was outstanding, working into the eighth inning in an eventual 4-0 victory. Here, I expect the Dodgers to have an answer with Julio Urias on the mound. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-5 with Urias coming off a start in which he allowed one earned run or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 10.3 runs. The 'over' has also gone a solid 22-9 with the Dodgers playing in a game where the total was set at 7.0 runs or less over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 8.4 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Giants have averaged 6.3 runs per game when Logan Webb comes off a start in which he gave up one earned run or less this season, resulting in an average total of 8.8 runs. Note also that the Dodgers are averaging 5.2 runs per game but also allowing 4.4 runs per game when playing on the road off a win by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Tuesday's 7-2 victory at Chavez Ravine. Finally I'll point out that both of Thursday's starters are riding career-long stretches of starts without allowing a single home run. We'll call for regression to the mean in that department here. Take the over (7*). |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NLDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Giants coming off a 1-0 victory last night, pushing the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the process, I like the way Game 4 sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-4 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 10.7 runs. The 'over' also checks 38-22 with San Francisco coming off a game in which it gave up one run or less over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 10.5 runs. The Dodgers, meanwhile, check in averaging 5.9 runs per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent in a game in which they were favored this season. That situation has produced an average total of 9.9 runs. They also average 5.5 runs per game when playing at home after being involved in a game that saw both teams score three runs or less, good for an average total of 8.4 runs. Neither of tonight's starters are all that imposing. For San Francisco's part, it averages 5.5 runs per game after scoring two runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here as well. The Dodgers will be getting their seventh look at Anthony DeSclafani this season. They tagged him for 22 earned runs in 27 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have yet to announce their starter but we can assume it will be 'all hands on deck' in this elimination game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Desperately trying to secure their first victory of the season, the Colts have thrown the football 38, 36, 37 and 32 times in their first four games but that pass-heavy approach has proven rather fruitless as they've topped out at just 245 yards through the air. Now that they have a win under their belts, I suspect we'll see them revert to a more ground-oriented approach in a tough road game in Baltimore. Despite their lacking talent, there is reason to believe the Colts can extend some drives and effectively shorten this game noting that only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than the Ravens. With a banged-up offensively line, we can expect Colts head coach Frank Reich to scheme up a run-heavy gameplan on offense that should also include plenty of dinking-and-dunking from QB Carson Wentz. On the flip side, this spot wraps up a soft three-game stretch in the Ravens schedule and they've feasted so far, allowing a grand total of 24 points in wins over the Lions and Broncos. They faced the Colts in a less-friendly environment last season, on the road in a game that featured a closing total of 47.5 points and gave up just 10 points in a two-touchdown victory that easily cruised 'under' the total. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has somewhat surprisingly thrown the football a whopping 68 times in the last two games, completing only 38 of those pass attempts. I expect Jackson to have limited success delivering big plays through the air against the Colts conservative zone defense. Note that the 'under' has gone 65-28 including 25-12 in the last 10 seasons with an elite team (.750 win percentage or better) returning home off an outright underdog road win with a total between 42 and 49.5 points with that situation producing an average total of only 41.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 44 | 24-23 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Monday. Low-scoring games have been commonplace in the CFL this season and I expect a similar story to unfold - at least early on - in Monday's rivalry showdown between the Argos and Tiger-Cats. I'll play the 'under' in the first half only as the Argos have listed previously-injured QB Nick Arbuckle as the backup to McLeod Bethel-Thompson in this game and should Bethel-Thompson struggle early on I wouldn't be surprised to see the more dynamic Arbuckle take over. Job number one for the Ti-Cats in this one will be taking care of the football on offense. The Argos are coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances but that's in direct correlation with the fact that they secured four turnovers in each of those games. In fact, Toronto ran two interceptions back for touchdowns in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout of the RedBlacks. It's worth noting that Toronto is averaging a woeful 16.2 points per game on the road this season, including just 4.7 points per game in the first half. While the Ti-Cats average north of 25 points per game here at Tim Hortons Field, they've been slow starters, averaging only 7.3 points per contest in the first half. Take the first half under (8*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a whopping 20 runs scored in Game 2 of this series on Friday and I expect to see plenty of offense again in Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-13 with the Rays playing on the road against division opponents this season with those games averaging 11.3 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 16-5 after the Red Sox score 10 runs or more in a game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs scored. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He'll inexplicably be facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this season. While he's pitched well against them, you have to wonder if at some point Boston begins to figure him out. Note that he has posted an awful 50.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. With Rasmussen averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has arguably been the team's most reliable starter this season. However, here he'll be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season. Note that his previous four starts against them have totaled 11, 14, 28 and 3 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 45 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Few were paying much attention but we finally saw some signs of life from the Bears offense in last Sunday's much-needed bounce-back win over the Lions. I expect to see further progression from rookie QB Justin Fields and the Chicago offense in this one. While the Raiders pass rush has been terrific, I still have my questions about the secondary and I'm confident that Fields can buy enough time in and out of the pocket to find his targets down field for some big plays through the air in this one. Meanwhile, the Bears pass defense got exposed in its lone previous indoor game on the fast track at So-Fi Stadium back in Week 1, allowing Matt Stafford to go off for 20-of-26 passing for 312 yards. While the Raiders aren't the Rams, I do think we'll see Derek Carr make a concerted effort to push the ball down the field more than we saw in Monday's snoozer against the Chargers. There's little reason for the Raiders to bang their heads against the wall trying to run the football against a stout Bears run defense here and it's worth noting that Las Vegas has aired it out a combined 99 times in its two previous home games, albeit boosted by overtime in both of those games. Take the over (8*). |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total has dropped considerably from the look-ahead number of 50.5, too much so in my opinion. Yes, Browns QB Baker Mayfield looked very uncomfortable in last week's ugly 14-7 win in Minnesota as he continues to battle through an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. With that being said, Cleveland's offense is generally run-heavy and here they draw a Chargers defense that has allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Browns are known for their vaunted defense but I expect that unit to get exposed here. Keep in mind, Cleveland's last three games have come against the Texans, Bears and Vikings - all three teams have issues on offense, and struggled to contain the Browns tremendous pass rush. I don't expect the Chargers to have that problem here as they boast a much-improved offensive line that has done an excellent job of keeping QB Justin Herbert clean this season. Herbert and his receiving corps has a considerable advantage against a very beatable Browns pass defense that hasn't been truly tested since getting owned by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs back in Week 1 (remember, even the Texans with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills padded their offensive stats against this defense in Week 2). Given the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results last week and the Chargers have actually yet to record an 'over' this season, I believe we're dealing with a total that's lower than it should be in this AFC showdown. Take the over (7*). |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Packers double-digit yawner of a win over the Steelers last Sunday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Green Bay heads to Cincinnati to face the upstart Bengals. Green Bay essentially could have named its score against Pittsburgh last week but elected to call off the dogs on offense in the second half after building a big lead and realizing Pittsburgh's utter inability to mount an offensive attack. I fully expect the Packers offense to get rolling again in this matchup, even against a better-than-expected Cincinnati defense. The Bengals defense has certainly benefited from the slate of quarterbacks it has faced - a list that includes Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton/Justin Fields, Ben Roethlisberger and still-struggling first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. This will clearly be the Bengals toughest test to date against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers offense. On the flip side, we've seen Cincinnati begin to open up the passing playbook a little more for sophomore starter Joe Burrow as he's more than proven that he's healthy after last season's devastating injury. Burrow catches a break here with the Packers missing arguably their top defender, CB Jaire Alexander. With RB Joe Mixon dealing with a nagging ankle injury, Burrow will likely be asked to shoulder more of the load in this one and I'm confident he can find some success going over the top with his excellent receiving corps. Take the over (9*). |
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10-09-21 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan OVER 44.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last week as the Stamps prevailed by a 23-17 score. Now we're dealing with a lower posted total and I believe it will prove too low on Saturday night. Note that the Stamps threw the football only 26 times for 184 yards in last week's victory. That had everything to do with game script as they jumped ahead by two touchdowns early and cruised the rest of the way. With the scene shifting to Regina on Saturday I'm certainly anticipating a stronger performance from the Riders offense. They've attempted at least 30 passes in all seven games this season and had scored 30+ points in consecutive games prior to last week's dismal effort. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-7 the last 30 times the Riders have played at home coming off a loss by seven points or less against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 55.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Elks got blasted against the RedBlacks of all teams last week but they'll aim to get back on track here with QB Trevor Harris returning to the field. The argument could be made that Edmonton essentially 'punted' that midweek game in Ottawa, knowing Harris would be back on the field for this division game against the Blue Bombers. Regardless, I do expect the Elks to show up with a much stronger effort here. Having Harris back should allow the offense to get back in rhythm and give the defense a break by staying on the field for extended stretches. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Elks bust out on the scoreboard against arguably the league's best defense in Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are coming off three straight 30+ point performances but I wouldn't count on that continuing tonight. This is a team that's built on the strength of its defense. Prior to its most recent three-game stretch it had been held to 23 points or less in its first four games this season. I still see QB Zach Collaros as more of a 'game manager' than anything else at this stage of his career. He threw the football 34 times in last week's blowout win over the Lions but I'm not sure we'll see such an aggressive offensive gameplan against a tougher defensive opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Elks have allowed 34+ points in consecutive games, with that situation producing an average total of just 43.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-4 the last 22 times the Bombers have come off three or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot leading to a total of just 44.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll make this play now as the total appears to be on the move, noting that I would still recommend a play at '6'. Both teams sent their 'B' squads to the ice last time out. Here, as the two teams look to bounce back (Washington has lost all four preseason games while Boston has lost its last two). The Caps do still have one more preseason game to go on Friday night at home against Philadelphia before opening the regular season next Wednesday against the Rangers. As for the Bruins, this game will put a wrap on their preseason schedule. I fully expect them to push the pace in this one but the Caps will certainly be along for the ride. Take the over (6*). |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Most will be anticipating a high-scoring affair between these two homer-happy rivals at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I don't see it playing out that way, however. Tonight's starters Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi actually just matched up on September 24th. That game finished 8-3 in favor of New York. The stakes are obviously even higher now with this being a 'win or go home' Wild Card showdown and I expect a more tightly-contested affair. Cole struggled down the stretch but this will be the first time he's had the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest since September 14th against Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run in five innings in that start. Likewise for Eovaldi. He, however, pitched well in his most recent start, tossing six shutout innings against the Orioles. He checks in sporting a 1.11 WHIP in 19 home starts this season. It will obviously be 'all hands on deck' when it comes to the two bullpens following yesterday's off-day. In fact, both teams have had three off days since September 23rd, setting them up well for Tuesday's all-important contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. We've been playing mostly 'unders' when it comes to CFL totals lately, and rightfully so as the league has certainly taken a low-scoring turn this season. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over', however, as the desperate Als roll into Hamilton on the heels of consecutive losses. Montreal showed some positive signs in last week's 30-27 loss to the Argos. QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 30-of-39 passes for nearly 400 yards through the air while RB William Stanback went off for 133 yards on the ground. I get the feeling we may see somewhat of a letdown from the Ti-Cats vaunted defense here after they held up so well, shouldering much of the load with QBs Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Masoli is back, along with WRs Bralon Addison and Brandon Banks and I can't help but feel we'll see the Hamilton defense breathe a sigh of relief and that perhaps opens the door for the Als offense in this spot. On the flip side, the Als defense hasn't been particularly good this season, especially against the pass. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli probably could have returned for the team's most recent game as he had been practicing in the days leading up to this one. Now he's had ample time to get ready for the Als with the Ti-Cats having not played in a week-and-a-half. The most recent matchup between these two teams fizzled in the second half. In what I expect to be a more competitive affair on Saturday, I look for this one to find its way 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | 34-37 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Wake Forest at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams over the last two seasons with Louisville prevailing in both. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. It's worth noting that Wake Forest has put up 35 points or more in four straight games to open the season. I went back over the last decade and didn't find a single other occurrence where the Demon Deacons accomplished that feat at any time during a season. They came close last year, scoring 35+ points in three straight games. In their next contest they won a low-scoring battle against Virginia Tech by a 23-16 score. I really like the way Wake has been able to salt away victories in the fourth quarter this season. That comes with an effective offensive line and potent rushing attack. Last week against Virginia, Wake didn't allow a single score from five minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Two weeks ago, the Deacs' held the Seminoles off the scoreboard for the entire second half. Louisville isn't running the same 'boom or bust' offense we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Cards are content to move up and down the field in small chunks with lots of slants and out-reads, with a healthy dose of their ground attack led by dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham mixed in. I suspect the Deacs' will be content to keep everything in front of them in this one - I really like their speed and athleticism on defense, particularly at the linebacker position and with that in mind, I'm confident they can contain Cunningham for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The Cards would be wise to employ a similar gameplan to what we saw back in Week 1 against high-powered Ole Miss. That means playing 'keep away' while also limiting the type of plays that could allow the turnover-happy Wake defense to feast. The lofty total makes sense given how high-scoring the last two matchups between these two teams have been (I take last year's Louisville blowout win with a grain of salt as it came in the final week of the season after Wake Forest dealt with four cancellations due to Covid protocols), I simply feel it will prove too high in an ACC showdown with a lot at stake. Take the under (8*). |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 62 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Virginia's blowout loss to Wake Forest last Friday night but were admittedly fortunate to do so as the Cavaliers offered very little defensive resistance in a 37-17 loss. After getting dummied by the North Carolina and Wake Forest offenses over the last two weeks, I do look for a response from the Cavaliers here. As I've noted before this season, Virginia does boast plenty of talent and experience on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the back-end. It was the Cavaliers run defense that got gashed last Friday and I believe that had something to do with the Demon Deacons catching them off guard with a more run-heavy approach. Here, Virginia will catch a Miami team that is coming off a 69-point explosion but that came against FCS squad Central Connecticut State. The Hurricanes are in a bit of a state of flux right now with questions around whether QB D'Eriq King may have lost his starting job. King has been a general disappointment since joining the Canes last season and with freshman Tyler Van Dyke coming in and throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last Saturday, there's a good chance we'll see Van Dyke again here. Regardless who takes the majority of the snaps, I like the 'under'. Keep in mind, Van Dyke is still learning the offense and now will have to prepare on a short week. Virginia opened the season scoring 43, 42 and 39 points in its first three games. That had more to do with the level of opposition they faced (and game script in a wild, high-scoring affair against North Carolina) than anything else. This will be the Cavaliers toughest defensive test to date as they head on the road to take on a Canes defense that is better than it showed in early season losses to Alabama and Michigan State. While they did allow 38 points against Michigan State in their last relevant game, the Canes actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half in that one. It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter that things really unraveled as Spartans standout RB Kenneth Walker wore them down with over 170 yards on the ground. The Cavaliers aren't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Note that last week against a beatable Wake Forest defense, Virginia didn't find the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter. It wasn't able to lean much on its ground attack after falling behind early. I certainly don't think the Cavaliers want QB Brennan Armstrong throwing the football 59 times again in this one. The hope is that they'll have RB Wayne Taulapapa back from a concussion for this game, which would help them grind out longer, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep their overworked defense off the field and effectively shorten this game. Note that the 'under' is 36-16 with Miami having lost three of its last four games ATS, with those contests totaling an average of just 46.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-13 with Virginia coming off consecutive games where it lost the turnover battle, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 46.1 points. There's reason to believe a more conservative gameplan could serve the Cavaliers well as they try to win for the first time in three weeks. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively low-scoring seven-innings affairs between these two teams simply playing out the string yesterday. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, at least early on. Elieser Hernandez gets another start for the Marlins. He was tagged for three home runs in his most recent start and a pair of home runs the last time he faced the Mets. I suspect we'll see him nibbling the edges a little too much in this one and perhaps struggle to avoid walks, which have plagued him recently (seven walks in his last two starts spanning just 9 2/3 innings). Hernandez checks in with a 1.81 WHIP over his last three outings. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. The wheels have come off for him down the stretch. He checks in having allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a stretch of 17 1/3 innings. Like Hernandez, Walker has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing a whopping eight home runs over his last four outings and at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. We'll play the first five innings only here, noting that the Mets bullpen in particular has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's double-header sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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09-28-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 44.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the RedBlacks 24-7 loss in awful weather conditions last week here in Ottawa. Conditions are expected to be a whole lot better tonight, and I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. The Elks will go with former Oklahoma State standout QB Taylor Cornelius for a second straight game with Trevor Harris still recovering from injury. Edmonton's offensive playbook didn't look a whole lot different with Cornelius under center last time out as he threw for 243 yards on 33 pass attemps while also adding 23 yards on the ground on a couple of rush attempts. That was against an elite Blue Bombers defense. Here, he'll be facing a RedBlacks defense that held up well in the first matchup between these two teams this season but that was back in Week 1. They've fallen apart since then. I like the fact that Cornelius didn't hesitate to throw the football down the field. The Elks top three receivers in that game against Winnipeg all had receptions of at least 20 yards. Ottawa will be going with a former college standout at quarterback for this one as well as Caleb Evans gets his first career CFL start. The fact is, he can't do much worse than Matt Nichols and Dominique Davis. Note that Evans owns the fifth-most total yards in Sun Belt Conference history. He ranks 11th in the Sun Belt in career touchdown passes. I believe his dual-threat capability makes him a good fit in the CFL. Despite game script going the other way with two losses in their last three games, the Elks check in having allowed at least 250 passing yards in three straight games. Believe it or not, the RedBlacks still aren't out of the playoff picture, sitting a game or less back of three of the nine teams in the league. There's little reason for them to hold anything back, especially after last week's embarrassing performance in front of the home faithful. Take the over. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 45 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expect to see some old-school football as the Bears and Browns do battle in the Dawg Pound on Sunday afternoon. The Bears will be starting rookie Justin Fields at quarterback and while most see him as a major upgrade over veteran Andy Dalton, I'm not so sure it plays out that way on the scoreboard. Fields is still learning the Bears offense, which isn't all that dynamic to begin with. While I am confident in his ability to march the football up and down the field, I'm not convinced he can finish a lot of drives with 7's rather than 3's against a tough Browns defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns offense was already run-first before losing WR Jarvis Landry to injury. Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return to the field on Sunday but I'm convinced he'll be little more than a decoy. Look for the Browns to go run-heavy, even against a Bears front that has been stout against the run through two games. Cleveland has posted a 2-0 o/u record so far this season but I don't expect that 'over' run to reach three in a row on Sunday. Take the under (9*). |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a pair of wild, high-scoring games in yesterday's seven-inning double-header but I expect a different story to unfold on Wrigley Field on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 14-0 when the Cardinals come off a game in which they scored 12 or more runs over the last three seasons with those games producing an average total of just 5.4 runs. St. Louis averages just 2.6 runs per game when coming off a win by eight runs over more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.1 runs. As for the Cubs, they average only 3.8 runs per game when playing at home with double-revenge this season, as is the case here. Jon Lester has arguably been the Cards most consistent starter lately, checking in with a 2.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts. For his part, Cubs starter Adrian Sampson has posted a respectable 3.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cards bullpen continues to pitch well, recording a collective 1.12 WHIP over their last seven games. While the Cubs 'pen has struggled for the most part this season, it has managed to post a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take the under (7*). |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give in this one as the Panthers enter this game sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Texans have seen each of their first two contests go 'over' the total. I think a lot of bettors are quick to back the 'under' in this spot, simply due to the fact that the first six primetime games this season have all gone 'over' the total. That's akin to betting on 'black' because 'red' came up six straight times in roulette. I simply feel this total will prove too low. The Panthers defense has feasted through two games this season. Keep in mind, it has benefited from two very favorable matchups - both at home - first going up against an absolutely dreadful Jets offensive line and then facing a Saints team that was in a prime letdown spot off a 'smoke and mirrors' blowout win over the Packers. On paper, this looks like another favorable matchup with the Texans starting rookie third-round draft pick Davis Mills at quarterback. To be honest, I'm not sure he represents all that big of a drop-off from journeyman Tyrod Taylor. An accurate although sometimes overly optimistic passer in college (he's been turnover-prone), Mills was able to get his feet wet in arguably a tougher situation on the road in the second half against the Browns last Sunday, and managed to lead the Texans on one touchdown drive before nearly adding another in the closing minutes. All the Texans have done this season is exceed expectations, putting up 58 points through two games after many (myself included) had them billed as one of the weakest teams we've seen in years. It seems like the entire offense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, with a number of veteran players with a lot to prove including David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks. Here, they're back home, catching the Panthers off an outright underdog home win - not exactly a favorable spot for visiting NFL teams if history tells us anything. With that being said, I do expect Carolina's offense to absolutely go off in this matchup. Sam Darnold has come out hot this season and with a wealth of burners at the wide receiver position, should be able to roast Houston's secondary. The Texans defense was already lacking talent, but now has to deal with a number of key injuries as well. Kamu Grugier-Hill, who led the team in tackles last week, is listed as questionable due to a knee injury and probably closer to doubtful with this being a short week. Meanwhile, Houston has one of the league's worst secondaries and will have to go without CB Terrance Mitchell and potentially safety Justin Reid as well due to injuries. While the Texans have wisely been playing deep in coverage in an effort to contain big plays through the air, they'll likely have to bump up in this one as they have to respect the ability of Panthers all-world RB Christian McCaffrey. It's a 'pick your poison' type of situation, especially given Houston's inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and I don't expect it to hold up well. What this play really comes down to is whether or not we believe that the Texans can keep the pressure on the favored Panthers for four quarters and I believe they can. We saw them orchestrate a fourth quarter touchdown drive while falling just short of another last week when they could have easily folded the tent trailing by double-digits against the Browns. While they're playing on a short week with a rookie quarterback there's really no reason to hold anything back given this will be their only primetime appearance this season. I've said it before and I'll say it again here, it takes a lot to cash an NFL 'under' these days. We'll ride the wave of 'over' results once again on Thursday night, noting that the Panthers have played to an average total of 52.1 points when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons while the Texans have posted a 6-0 o/u mark in their last six September games, good for an average total of 52.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs to open this series. In fact, you would have to go back to September 15th to find the last time either of these teams posted an 'over' result. Look for that to change on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 8-0 when the Mariners play on the road after winning three or more games in a row over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 13.2 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 when the A's come off consecutive losses at home against division opponents this season, good for an average total of 12.1 runs. The A's average 5.6 runs per game when coming off four straight games scoring four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Neither starter is likely to fool the opposition here given the A's have seen Chris Flexen three times this season while the Mariners have also seen Cole Irvin three times here in 2021. Irvin in particular has struggled, allowing a whopping 22 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Flexen has seemingly hit the wall lately, topping out at four strikeouts over his last four outings, allowing 24 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners bullpen has posted a collective 6.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa UNDER 44.5 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Hamilton is in a tough spot here, playing its second game in six nights and doing so without its best offensive players in QBs Jeremiah Masoli and Dane Evans and WRs Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison. It would be well-suited to effectively shorten this game and put QB David Watford in a 'game manager' role once again, just as it did last Friday against Calgary, and let its defense do much of the heavy-lifting. Ottawa is coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, allowing a whopping 96 points in losses to the Alouettes and Lions. The good news is, the RedBlacks are coming off their bye week so certainly have a rest advantage in this spot. I do think they're a better defensive team than they've shown over their last couple of games, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just 59 points over their first three contests this season. Ottawa QB Dominique Davis has thrown 84 passes over the last two games and while he's been able to march the offense up and down the field, he's also turned the football over three times. With the RedBlacks facing a much tougher defensive test in the Ti-Cats this week than they did against the Als and Lions over the last two games, I would anticipate them scaling back their aerial attack in an effort to avoid those costly turnovers, noting that Hamilton has five interceptions in its last four contests. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Braves finally snapped out of their offensive funk. I expect some carry-over from that offensive explosion here as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup between spot starter Jesse Chavez and Luke Weaver. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 when the Braves check in having allowed four runs or less in three straight games this season with that spot producing an average total of 9.9 runs. The 'over' is also 39-22 with Atlanta coming off two or more straight wins over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 10.4 runs. On the flip side, the 'over' is an incredible 15-3 with the D'Backs seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent by six runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs. Of course, Arizona has been an 'over' machine in general this month, posting a 12-3 o/u mark with an average total of 10.3 runs scored. Braves starter Jesse Chavez made just one previous spot start this season and gave up two earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. As bad as Arizona has been in terms of wins and losses, it can score runs, having plated at least four runs in eight of its last 11 games. Luke Weaver hasn't really fooled anyone since returning from injury at the start of September. His three starts in that time have resulted in 11, 13 and 12 total runs. Behind Weaver is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a loss on Sunday, with both managing to score exactly five runs in those losing efforts. The last time we saw the Pirates and Reds match up they combined to score just one run as the Reds salvaged the final game of their series in Pittsburgh last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 in the Pirates last eight games. That's nothing new as the 'over' is 57-37 when they play on the road in the second half of the season over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of 9.8 runs. Also consider that the 'over' is 38-19 when the Buccos revenge a one-run loss against an opponent over that same span, resulting in an average total of 9.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a 41-31 o/u record at home this season (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 10.6 runs. It gets better though as the 'over' is 23-9 when Cincinnati plays at home off a loss this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.1 runs. Pirates starter Dillon Peters has pitched relatively well this season but we're talking about a very small sample size of just 23 1/3 innings. Here, the Reds will be seeing him for the second time in a week. Note that the Cardinals saw him twice in a six-day span back in August. After managing just one run on three hits over five innings the first time they saw him, they doubled their hit total (6) and plated three runs, also over five innings, the next time they matched up. The Reds didn't score a single run off of Peters over five innings last week but I expect better production as they see him for a second time, especially given they're back at home. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has seemingly hit the rookie wall here in September. He's now eclipsed 100 innings pitched on the season and has certainly struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last four starts. He recorded two strikeouts or less in three of those four outings. Both bullpens have held up well lately, but it's worth noting that the Pittsburgh 'pen has recorded a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only six saves converted and nine blown in division games this season. The Reds 'pen has posted a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 44 | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9:45 pm et on Saturday. We're once again dealing with a low posted total due to a CFL quarterback injury as Elks QB Trevor Harris will be sidelined. He entered the week leading the CFL in passing yardage so it's obviously a blow. However, if you've watched the Elks play this season and if you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm not all that high on Harris - not in this offense at least. He's been hesitant to push the football down the field at times and I believe it's cost the Elks some points. Enter rookie Taylor Cornelius. After spending time in the XFL in 2020 he'll get a shot north of the border and I expect him to play aggressively. Cornelius has some familiarity with the Elks offense as head coach Jamie Elizondo was the offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Vipers, Cornelius' team in the XFL last year. Cornelius is also a proven performer from his days at Oklahoma State. In fact, he sits tied for the Cowboys all-time record for all-purpose touchdowns in a single season. Who is he tied with? A guy named Barry Sanders. Anyway, I don't expect Cornelius to hold anything back in his CFL starting debut on Saturday. On the flip side, the Blue Bombers have been involved in a number of low-scoring games lately but I look for them to open things up a little bit on offense as well as they match up well against a middle-of-the-pack Elks defense. It should be all systems go with WRs Darvin Adams and Nic Demski getting in a full week of practice for a change, apparently over their nagging injuries. The Bombers haven't had to score a lot of points to secure their last couple of victories but here I envision them getting involved in more of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Phillies prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm expecting more in the way of offense as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Phillies playing on the road off three or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. Nola averages around 5 2/3 innings per start this season but has lasted less than six innings in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Carrasco averages just over four innings per start at home. That's worth considering as both bullpens have been struggling with the Phillies 'pen checking in with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Mets relief corps recording a 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Buffalo UNDER 58 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday. Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-21 | Mercury v. Storm OVER 156.5 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers seem to think that Seattle is 'punting' a second straight game as it gives its key cogs some much-needed rest at the end of the regular season. I'm not so sure. One thing we do know is that Phoenix has been held under 80 points in consecutive games for only the third time this season. On all three previous occasions their next game went 'over' the total with the Mercury putting up 91, 89 and 99 points in those three contests. Unlike last Sunday when the Storm essentially 'rolled over' in an 81-53 loss in Los Angeles, I do expect Seattle to be along for the ride in this one. Forget being held in the 50's, prior to their last game, the Storm had only been held under 70 points twice this season. The 'over' cashed in their next game on both occasions with those two contests totaling 166 and 182 points. Yes, Breanna Stewart will be out for the Storm in this one, as will Diana Taurasi for the Mercury. Still, I would consider this a 'defense optional' type of late season affair. Take the over (9*). |
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09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. The Ti-Cats are obviously in a tough spot here as they go with third-string QB David Watford with both Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli injured. They're also missing their top three wide receivers and likely their starting running back as well. It's going to be awfully tough to gameplan offensively for this one but with so many unknowns, I prefer to play the 'over' with the Stamps offense capable of doing much of the heavy lifting. Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell returned from a broken fibula to guide his team to a much-needed 32-16 win over the Elks last week. He wasn't quite as sharp as we're accustomed to seeing but with a game under his belt and another full week of practice I look for a big performance from Mitchell here. While the Stamps defense recorded seven sacks against statue-esque Elks QB Trevor Harris in last week's victory, they'll likely find it a little more difficult getting to Ti-Cats QB Watford, who has dual-threat capabilities. I expect the Ti-Cats to design plenty of plays that allow Watford to move around in the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. With Hamilton likely to be playing in catch-up mode for much of this game, look for some soft coverage from the Stamps beatable secondary. It's worth noting that despite all of its injuries, Hamilton is still currently listed as a short favorite in this game. I believe the potential is there for the Ti-Cats to keep this one competitive and for that to happen, they're going to need to put some points on the board. We've seen a bit of a shift to higher-scoring results after 'unders' ruled the first month of the CFL season. Expect more of the same on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Giants doing most of the heavy-lifting in a 9-1 victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the reeling Padres look to break out of their funk on Tuesday night. Note that the Giants are as hot at the plate as any team in baseball right now, having scored a whopping 8.9 runs per game during their current eight-game winning streak. Here, they'll face a Padres club that has posted a 10-1 o/u record when playing on the road after scoring one run or less in a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.1 runs. In fact, the 'over' is 14-4 with the Padres playing on the road after scoring one run or less in their last game over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 11.6 runs. On the flip side of that, the Giants have posted a 15-3 o/u mark when coming off a win by six runs or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot averaging a total of 12.8 runs. While tonight's Giants starter, Anthony DeSclafani, has generally trended to the 'under', the 'over' has actually gone 9-1 in his last 10 home starts at night with those contests totaling an average of 11.2 runs. The Padres will mercifully trot out Jake Arrieta for another turn in the rotation despite his massive struggles. With Arrieta unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty from an overworked San Diego bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Believe it or not, despite yet another series loss - this one coming at home against the lowly Rockies - the Phillies are still in the hunt for an N.L. Wild Card spot, currently sitting just 2.5 games back of the second spot. Here, I expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks as they open an important three-game set against the Cubs. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Cubs seeking revenge for a home loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping average total of 15.6 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed at an incredible 16-3 clip in Phillies starter Kyle Gibson's September outings over the course of his career, good for an average total of 11.7 runs. The wheels have come off for Gibson lately as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Cubs got their bats going a bit on their most recent homestand and should benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park this week. Note that both bullpens have been unreliable lately with the Phillies relief corps posting a collective 7.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over their last seven games and Cubs relievers combining to record a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (9*). |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 162.5 | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Las Vegas at 3 pm et on Monday. This may look like a fairly low total for a game involving the high-flying Aces, however I believe the spot sets up well as a lower-scoring than expected affair. Note that Las Vegas enters this game having allowed more than 80 points in three straight games - the first time that's happened all season. On five previous occasions they've given up 80+ points in consecutive games and in their next contest, the 'under' has gone 4-1. Here, they should be able to right the ship defensively against a Wings squad playing on the road on just one day of rest after a hard-fought one-point victory at home against the Liberty on Saturday. The Wings are expected to be without two key cogs in Satou Sabally and Moriah Jefferson on Monday afternoon. Note that while the Aces are known for their offense they've actually held opponents to just north of 41% shooting here at home this season. Dallas would be well-served to do everything it can to slow the pace in this one, knowing that it's unlikely to stay competitive in a track meet with the Aces. It's interesting to note that Dallas has actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, holding opponents to 43.5% shooting with the 'under' cashing at a 9-4-2 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 2:05 pm et on Monday. A direct carry-over to a high-scoring series against the cross-town rival Mets over the weekend, I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks as the Yankees return to the Bronx to host the Twins on Monday afternoon. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Twins playing on the road revenging a road loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 total runs. The 'over' is also 21-11 with the Twins playing with double-revenge (lost their last two games against their opponent) this season, good for an average total of 10.9 runs. One final 'revenge' angle here; Minnesota has posted a 13-3 o/u mark when revenging a loss against an opponent where they scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.2 runs. The Yankees are giving up 5.7 runs per contest when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In 12 previous situations where they've come off three consecutive 'over' results, their games have totaled an average of 10.5 runs. We should anticipate plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon with both starters, John Gant for the Twins and Luis Gil for the Yankees, struggling with command issues. Gant has handed out three walks or more in 12 of his 18 starts this season. He owns an ugly 1.55 WHIP in 12 road starts. Gil walked just three hitters combined in his first two big league starts but has issued a whopping 11 walks, including seven in his most recent outing, over his last two starts, covering a span of just eight innings. Also note that the Yankees once-reliable but more recently overworked bullpen has posted a collective 6.13 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Storm v. Sparks OVER 154 | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Sparks most recent game, a 75-57 loss here at home against Connecticut. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Sunday as the Sparks welcome the defending champion Storm. Seattle is going to be without Breanna Stewart for this one and likely for the remainder of the regular season. I'm confident enough in the Storm's scoring depth that they can still hang a crooked number on the scoreboard in this one. Note that Los Angeles has actually held six straight opponents to under 80 points - by far its longest such streak of the season. I expect that streak to come to an end here with Seattle rolling into this game having scored 85 and 105 points in its last two games - both double-digit victories. Note that the Storm are averaging 86.5 points per game on the road this season. The real question here is whether the Sparks can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. They're coming off a woeful 2-of-10 three-point shooting effort against the Sun. Keep in mind, L.A. averages six made threes on 20 attempts at home this season. On the flip side, the Storm will give up their share of threes, allowing nine made on 23 attempts per game on the road this season. With the Sparks having scored less than 60 points in consecutive games - the first time that's happened all season - I look for them to make a concerted effort to push the pace a little bit in this one, noting that they're essentially just playing out the string at this point. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies answered back after dropping the first two games in this series, recording a 6-1 victory last night. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as the Rockies and Phillies close out their four-game set. Note that the 'over' is 16-7 when the Phillies come off a win by four runs or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 11.0 runs. While Philadelphia is giving up 4.7 runs per game overall this season, it allows 5.3 runs per game when coming off a win. Worse still, the Phillies have allowed 5.9 runs per game when today's starter, Aaron Nola, takes the ball off a team win. That situation has come up 16 times with those games totaling an average of 10.2 runs. Finally, note that Philadelphia has allowed an average of 5.7 runs after giving up two runs or less in its last game this season, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of 9.5 runs. As for the Rockies, we know they've struggled to score runs on the road this season, averaging just 3.4 runs per game away from Coors Field. That hasn't necessarily been the case lately, however, as they check in averaging 5.1 runs per contest over their last 12 road games. With the potential of one, if not both of today's starters getting hit hard and two unreliable bullpens in the mix as well - note that the Rockies 'pen owns a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 ERA over the last seven games while Phillies relievers have posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch with the two 'pens combining to record just one save while blowing three over that period - I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 53.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it. I'm actually not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough for a game that has 'defense optional' written all over it. The Cardinals offense figures to improve in QB Kyler Murray's sophomore season with an improved offensive line and a more dynamic receiving corps with the underrated addition of rookie Rondale Moore to take over the role of slot receiver. The Titans are bereft of talent in the secondary making this a nightmarish opening week matchup as the defense works its way back into game shape. It's not as if Tennessee has a fierce pass rush to lean on either. Murray should be afforded plenty of time to march the Cardinals up and down the field provided he can take care of the football. On the flip side, the Titans are favored for a reason. While their defense is certainly a weakness, their offense could turn out to be among the best in the entire NFL again this season. The addition of future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones only adds to an already loaded group that can beat you in so many different ways. Believe it or not, QB Ryan Tannehill is still underrated in most circles in my opinion. He's not a 'flash in the pan' at this point and should be in 'attack mode' for much of the afternoon on Sunday, noting that like the Titans, the Cardinals secondary ranks among the worst in the league from a talent perspective. The Cards do have a capable pass rush but won't be able to pin back their ears against a well-balanced Tennessee offense on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 49.5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. This has generally been a low-scoring series with six of the last nine meetings between these two in-state rivals totaling 45 points or less. While I'm not expecting a true defensive slugfest on Saturday night in Provo, I do think this one will stay 'under' the total. Utah put up 40 points in last week's win over FCS squad Weber State. Once the Utes offense got rolling, the Wildcats simply had no answers in that contest. While BYU is expected to take a step back defensively after a tremendous 2020 campaign, it certainly held up ok in its season-opener last week, not allowing Arizona to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. The Cougars secondary is thought to be a weakness but I believe that can be negated by an improved pass rush, which recorded four sacks in last week's victory. Also note that the return of strong safety Chaz Ah-You is key after he missed last season. He was extremely active in last week's contest, seemingly playing all over the field and helping to slow the Arizona offense. I'm not sure how much success the Cougars offense can have against a Utes defense that is loaded from the secondary in. Note that BYU QB Jaren Hall threw for just 198 yards in last week's victory with 67 of those yards coming in a single play. Hall has some mobility and ran for 36 yards in the opener. Keep in mind, he racked up 39 yards on a single run. The Utes are terrific at the linebacker position and should be able to keep Hall from breaking off too many big runs. I do think BYU's offense can go on some long, clock-churning drives in this one, which certainly helps our cause. I simply question how many of those drives will end with 7's on the board. Note that standout BYU WR Gunner Romney is currently listed as doubtful for this game after suffering an injury last week. His ability to stretch the field would certainly be missed if he can't go, although I'm actually making this play under the assumption that he does play as there have been whispers of that throughout the week. Take the under (9*). |
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09-11-21 | Liberty v. Wings OVER 158.5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Both the Liberty and Wings are coming off subpar performances but I expect more in the way of offensive fireworks as they match up for the third time this season on Saturday night. Note that the previous two meetings totaled 169 and 195 points. New York checks in having scored under 80 points in four straight games - only the second time that has happened this season. It should be afforded a good opportunity to get back on track offensively against a Wings squad that allows over 82 points per game on better than 45% shooting at home this season. Dallas has allowed less than 70 points in two of its last three games. That has happened only once previously this season and in its next game it combined with Phoenix to score 166 points with both teams getting north of the 80-point mark. The Wings are certainly in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively here after shooting 36.5% or worse in three straight games. Note that New York allows just shy of 84 points per game on just under 43% shooting on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 43.5 | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a very low-scoring game between these two teams just six days ago as Winnipeg rolled to a 23-8 win on the road. I don't expect much to change in the rematch, even with the Riders missing a couple of key cogs in the secondary. Winnipeg doesn't necessarily have the offense to take full advantage of Saskatchewan's key absences (both Ed Gainey and Louchez Purifoy will miss this game). QB Zach Collaros has been more of a game manager this season, noting that Winnipeg has scored 23 points or less in all five games to date. Also note that the Bombers have a number of offensive players listed on their injury report. Nic Demski, Darvin Adams and Andrew Harris are among those listed as questionable although I would anticipate all three playing in this game. Whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate, however. Saskatchewan's offense has stalled somewhat since a huge first half was back in its season-opener against B.C. The Riders will need to take some of the pressure off of QB Cody Fajardo in this one as he was under duress all afternoon long against the Bombers vaunted pass rush last Sunday. I expect plenty of early down runs and also quick, short passes in this one in an effort to keep the Bombers defense on the field and perhaps slow that dominant pass rush. We saw a low-scoring result in the quick turnaround rematch between the Ti-Cats and Argos last night and I expect more of the same in this rematch on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 51.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced a very low-scoring result last year with Oklahoma State prevailing by a 16-7 score. That was a surprising outcome. A relatively low-scoring contest here shouldn't be. Tulsa dropped a 19-17 decision against Cal-Davis in its season-opener last week. In that game, the Golden Hurricane didn't manage to find the end zone until the final five minutes of the first half and that was a clock-churning 12-play drive that included a successful fourth down conversion. From there, Tulsa didn't score another touchdown until the latter half of the third quarter. On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane allowed an early touchdown inside the game's first four minutes but then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. That's not surprising as the Tulsa defense was outstanding last season and gets nine starters back from that unit. This will obviously be a tougher test against Oklahoma State but certainly not an insurmountable one. The Cowboys weren't great on offense in 2020 and have to replace a number of key contributors. Oklahoma State was involved in a low-scoring win against an FCS opponent in Missouri State last week. The Cowboys actually scored three early touchdowns in that contest - all coming inside the first five minutes of the second quarter. From there, they managed just a single field goal, indicating the potentially inconsistent nature of this offense. The defense was tremendous, however, not allowing a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter, when they held a comfortable 23-9 lead. Oklahoma State is strong from the secondary in on the defensive side of the football. Seven starters return to the unit from a group that finished tops in the entire nation in third down stops a year ago. They'll give up enough yardage for Tulsa to orchestrate some clock-eating drives, but I don't expect a ton of big plays from the Golden Hurricane in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State OVER 56 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Boise State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'm higher on UTEP than most but this is admittedly a tough matchup as the Miners head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that will be in a foul mood after a blown opportunity in their opener at UCF. While the Miners have already lost RB Deion Hankins to injury, they may have found a star in the making in Ronald Awatt. Since taking over the starting role from Hankins he has ripped off 200 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 carries. With the fantastic WR tandem of Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, the Miners also have the potential to blow the top off Boise's secondary, which lost its two starting cornerbacks from last season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Boise secondary that came up with only three interceptions all of last year. The problem for UTEP here will be trying to slow down an explosive Boise State offense that just hung 31 points on UCF. Like Boise, UTEP's defensive weakness is in the secondary where it doesn't boast much depth and managed to come up with only two picks all of last year. Both of those came from Duron Lowe, who is no longer with the team. This should be a 'name your score' type of affair for the Broncos and I look for them to go up-tempo in an effort to negate UTEP's solid pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-21 | Sun v. Sparks UNDER 145.5 | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This is a fairly low total by WNBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Sun have opened their current road trip by scoring 85 and 83 points in wins over the Mystics and Wings. Note that prior to that they had scored 80+ points just twice in six games since the Olympic break. You would have to go back to May 16th to 21st to find the last time they put up 80+ points in three consecutive games. Keep in mind, tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Sparks, have actually been pretty locked in defensively of late, holding eight of nine opponents to 44.4% or less shooting since the Olympic break. The problem is, the Sparks offense just isn't working. They've been held to 72 points or less in five straight games and now have to contend with an elite Sun defense that just held the Dallas Wings to a ridiculous 26.6% shooting. Connecticut checks in allowing just 72 points per game on 40% shooting on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 29-31 | Win | 102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While the Bucs continue to be bet up, the total has held fairly steady, even being bet down at some books. I fully expect Tampa Bay to find plenty of offensive success going up against a down-trodden Cowboys defense that might be a little stronger up front with the addition of first round draft pick Micah Parsons, but still looks vulnerable at the back-end. Dallas brings in former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to run the defense - a curious move considering just how bad Quinn's defenses were during his time in Atlanta. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should be salivating at the thought of going up against Dallas' overmatched secondary, especially with QB Tom Brady back healthy after playing through an MCL tear in the postseason. On the flip side of the equation, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys talent on offense, and also the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is in his third season at the helm. Dallas isn't likely to enjoy much success running the football against the Bucs space-eating defensive front but I don't think Moore will bang his head against the wall long trying to force-feed Ezekiel Elliott. There should be opportunities for Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to perhaps get involved in the short passing game in this one against a Tampa Bay defense that was more than willing to give up passes to running backs last season. I also believe that WRs Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are 'bet-on talents' against a capable Bucs secondary. While QB Dak Prescott will be seeing his first game action since Week 5 of last season (he sat out the entire preseason) all indications are that he was 'all systems go' in the latter stages of camp, with no signs of any loss of velocity after dealing with a shoulder/lat injury earlier in the summer. Missing Zack Martin on the offensive line hurts but Dak's mobility helps. What better way to get back to football than with plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night? Take the over (8*). |
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09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as we cashed with the underdog Nationals +1.5 runs in their outright victory. Here, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 with the Braves seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite this season with those games averaging 12.6 total runs. The Nats check in on a 36-22 'over' run with those games totaling an average of 11.1 runs. Washington has actually been fairly consistent offensively in recent games, scoring at least four runs in six consecutive games heading into this one. With a subpar starting pitching matchup featuring Erick Fedde and Huascar Ynoa, and two less than reliable bullpens, expect a high-scoring contest on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-21 | Mercury v. Dream UNDER 157.5 | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Mercury have scored 80 points or more in six straight games entering Wednesday's clash with the Dream in Atlanta. Keep in mind, their longest previous streak was four games scoring 80 or more this season. Here, they'll face a Dream squad that have seemed to figure out the only way they're going to win any games down the stretch is by locking down on defense. That's because their offense is essentially broke, due to injuries and suspensions, having shot 43.1% or worse from the field in all eight games since returning from the Olympic break. They're coming off a two-game stop in Dallas that saw them hold the Wings to a combined 53-for-152 (34.9%) shooting. While this is obviously a tougher test, it is worth noting that the Mercury are expected to be without Diana Taurasi and as I mentioned are in line for some regression as they end a stretch that saw them play six out of seven games away from home. Take the under (8*). |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. In fact, the Rangers have now seen two straight and four of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the D'Backs coming off a three-game stretch in which they hit .200 or worse as a team this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.3 runs. The 'over' is also 26-11 when Arizona revenges a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 11.5 runs. If there's one spot where we can generally count on high-scoring games involving the Rangers, it's on the road in day games over the last two seasons, with the 'over' cashing at a 21-10 clip in that spot, good for an average of 10.5 total runs. With a subpar starting pitching matchup between Arihara and Weaver, not to mention two unreliable bullpens, look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. High-scoring games involving the Marlins have been few and far between in recent weeks but that's the type of contest I'm expecting as they open a series against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-1 when Miami plays at home after consecutive games where it recorded two hits or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 runs. The 'over' is also 30-14 when the Marlins play at home after consecutive games where they've scored three runs or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 10.2 runs scored. Finally, Miami is allowing 5.0 runs per game after allowing four runs or less in five straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, but also averaging 5.0 runs per game itself when coming off a one-run loss against a division opponent this year. With both lineups having just got a look at tonight's opposing starter in the last week, look for more than enough offense to topple this relatively low total on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers on the run-line in yesterday's 7-3 Texas victory. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I look for the bats to come alive in the series finale. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 with the Angels coming off four consecutive games in which they scored four runs or less over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 10.4 runs. The 'over' is a perfect 10-0 when the Angels play at home after three or more straight games against division opponents this season with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Neither Rangers rookie starter A.J. Alexy or Jaime Barria of the Angels inspire a great deal of confidence here, nor do the two ragged bullpens. Take the over (9*). |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday. I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Mariners and Astros on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 17-5 with the Mariners coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games averaging 11.8 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 12-3 with the Astros playing at home after losing three of their last four games with that situation producing an average total of 11.4 runs. The Astros will inexplicably be getting their sixth look at Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi this season while the Mariners will be seeing Lance McCullers Jr. for the four time this year and seventh time since the start of 2020. Four of Kikuchi's six starts against Houston since last season have totaled at least 11 runs. Two of McCullers Jr.'s three outings against Seattle this year have reached at least 14 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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