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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out. I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*). |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and LSU at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm not expecting much of the way of offensive fireworks in this SEC showdown on Saturday night. Texas A&M will be looking for a soft landing as it wraps up the regular season with this winnable road game against LSU. I'm not convinced we're going to see the Aggies take a ton of chances on offense in this one, knowing that they likely won't need to score much to prevail. Keep in mind, LSU ended a string of three straight games scoring 17 or less points by putting up just 27 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe last week. If the Tigers are going to stay competitive in this game they're going to have to play tough defense and we know they're capable of that. LSU held mighty Alabama to only 20 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. We've certainly seen the Tigers play their best defensive football down the stretch, giving up just 50 points combined over their last three games. The 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series with the two teams taking turns scoring just seven points in road losses. Take the under (7*). |
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11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 48.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Wyoming at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in Laramie, however. Keep in mind, this has been a low-scoring matchup in recent years with the last two meetings producing just 30 and 38 points. While Hawaii did hang 50 points on Colorado State last week, consistency simply hasn't been there for the Rainbow Warriors offense this season. Case in point, two weeks ago they were held to just 13 points in a two-touchdown loss at UNLV. Here, the Warriors will be up against a tough Wyoming defense that has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.1 yppa. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run but the Warriors simply don't have the horses to expose that weakness. Wyoming delivered a 44-17 win over Utah State last week - a somewhat stunning result as it was a 5.5-point underdog heading in. Performances like that have been few and far between for a team that likes to run the football and let its defense take care of the rest. Note that the Cowboys have attempted just 49 passes combined in their last three games. The 'under' checks in 18-4 the last 22 times Wyoming has come off a game that totaled 60+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-7 in Hawaii's last 26 games following a conference win by seven points or less. Take the under (8*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 44.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and San Diego State at 12 noon et on Friday. This may appear to be a low total at first glance but numbers like this have been commonplace in games involving San Diego State this season. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the Aztecs last seven games overall. As for Boise State, each of its last six contests have stayed 'under' the total. Both teams like to run the football. Both teams are capable of playing exceptional defense. The Broncos and Aztecs haven't met since 2018 but the last time they did they combined to score just 32 points. Look for more of the same in this very early start at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California on Friday morning. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Alabama v. Iona OVER 148 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Alabama and Iona at 5 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met in last March's NCAA Tournament we saw a much lower-scoring game than expected with Alabama essentially holding Iona down for 40 minutes in a 68-55 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a more spirited affair. Note that Iona got to the free throw line only five times in that previous matchup. The Gaels are getting to the line an average of 29 times per game in the early going this season. While the Gaels have yet to really get rolling offensively this season, I do think Alabama's up-tempo style will assist them in padding their offensive stats in this one. Note that the Crimson Tide are shooting a terrific 46.7% against opponents that allow just 40.6% this season. They've scored at least 86 points in three of four games so far. That low-scoring result in the 2021 NCAA Tournament is helping keep this total in check as I fully expected to see it open in the low-150's. Take the over (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. With a banged-up offense that could be without its top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, I'm expecting the Cowboys to methodically move the football with long, clock-churning drives on offense while leaning on their defense to take care of the rest in what I feel projects as a relatively low-scoring game in Big D on Thursday afternoon. The Raiders are just looking to sustain a drive or two at this point. They've been held to just 16, 14 and 13 points over their last three games and this doesn't figure to be an ideal 'get right' spot against a Cowboys team coming off an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday. The wheels have quite simply come off for the Raiders offense as teams have counter-punched their renewed commitment to play action under coordinator Greg Olson. In the last two games combined, Las Vegas has only managed to muster 32 rush attempts and 62 pass attempts and both of those games were played at home where you would assume it would be able to control the tempo of the game a little better. The Cowboys defense quietly continues to dominate. Over their last six games they've allowed a miserly 111-of-188 (59%) passing. Over their last five contests they haven't allowed a single opponent to throw for more than 244 yards. Only the Broncos were really able to make much headway on the ground, and as you know that game was a bit of an anomaly as the Cowboys inexplicably fell by a 30-16 score. Take the under (9*). |
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11-24-21 | Canucks v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in consecutive games for each of these teams heading into Wednesday's clash in Pittsburgh. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Note that the last time these two teams matched up in the Steel City they combined to score a whopping 14 goals. Interestingly, Thatcher Demko started that game for the Canucks two years ago and he's likely to be between the pipes again here. Vancouver has allowed just three goals over its last two games but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, it will be facing a Penguins squad returning home off a successful Canadian road trip and one that's in line for an offensive breakout, noting that Vancouver is allowing 4.1 goals per game on the road this season. On the flip side, the Pens have given up a grand total of just three goals over their last four games - another unsustainable trend in my opinion and we can expect the Canucks to come in with an attacking mentality knowing their penchant for giving up goals on the road. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield UNDER 134.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Fairfield at 2 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams met right around a year ago with that game reaching 141 points to topple the closing total of 131.5. We're dealing with a higher posted total in this rematch but I'm not sure the move is warranted. There was nothing exceptional that either team did in last year's matchup. In fact, both teams shot around 40% from the field, they combined to knock down only nine three-point attempts and missed a whopping 23 free throws. That game saw just 55 first half points. Only a late scoring flurry, aided by free throws, ended up pushing the game 'over' the total. I like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for Stony Brook defensively. It has allowed all three opponents to shoot 50% or better this season but keep in mind, two of its three games came against quality foes in George Mason and Kansas, both on the road no less. Fairfield has shot 42.9% or worse in three of four games this season with the other coming against little-known Medgar Evers. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-22 in Stony Brook's last 57 lined contests and 40-21 in Fairfield's last 61. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan State at 12 noon et on Wednesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' as the Ramblers enter this game sporting a 4-0 o/u record so far this season. Of course, Loyola-Chicago is known for its methodical pace and tough defense. Early on this season, however, the Ramblers have shot the lights out, knocking down better than 52% of their field goal attempts in all four games. The level of competition they've faced has had a lot to do with that as they've been favored by 18 points or more in all four games so far. Needless to say, they'll face their toughest test of the young season against the Spartans on Wednesday. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a ridiculous 57-for-185 (30.8%) shooting. Like the Ramblers, the Spartans have also been lighting it up offensively. In their toughest previous test, they were held to a season-low 73 points against an undermanned Butler squad, however. With Loyola-Chicago looking to tighten things up off its worst defensive effort of the season (relatively speaking), I wouldn't anticipate Sparty running away and hiding in this one. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons OVER 207 | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pistons last game against the Lakers on Sunday. I'm not interested in going back to the well with the same play here, in fact, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as Detroit wraps up its homestand against the Heat. Miami checks in off a 103-100 loss in Washington on Saturday. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times the Heat have played on the road off a road loss with that spot producing an average total of 224.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 in the Heat's last 12 games as a double-digit favorite (the spread has crept into that range over the course of the morning). That situation has led to an average total of 227.8 points. As for Detroit, it has seen the 'over' go a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has followed up three or more consecutive home games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 226.3 points. Finally, we'll note that all three of last year's meetings between these two teams totaled at least 220 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Lakers v. Pistons UNDER 212.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Lost in Lebron James' return to the Lakers lineup is the fact that this team isn't playing a lick of defense right now - at least not on its current road trip. The Lakers gave up a whopping 130 points in Friday's rout at the hands of the Celtics. I see this as the perfect 'get right' spot for the Lakers defense, however, as they continue their trip against the inconsistent Pistons in Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 21-8 in the Lakers last 29 road games when coming off an ATS loss. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when they play on the road off an upset loss as a favorite, with that situation totaling an average of just 206.2 points. Detroit checks in with the 'over' having cashed in three of its last four games but the Pistons are anything but reliable offensively, noting that they've scored 102 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Interestingly, Los Angeles scored just 92 points in its lone trip to Detroit last season in a game that totaled only 199 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5 | 22-13 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's easy to forget that this matchup produced two of the highest-scoring games of the entire 2020 season, totaling 78 and 79 points. The Texans obviously aren't the same offensive team as they were a year ago. With that being said, I do think they can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably low total. Tyrod Taylor will get another shot at the starting quarterback job despite performing horribly in a road game against the Dolphins prior to the bye. This is actually a favorable matchup for the Texans offense as the Titans defense is by no means dominant. Note that Houston does continue to bomb away, attempting 43, 32, 39 and 44 passes in its last four games. Having dealt away veteran RB Mark Ingram, the Texans have little interest in pounding the rock, running the football 18 times or less in three consecutive games. On the flip side, the Titans offense should absolutely unload on an awful Texans defense in this one. There's an interesting narrative at play here with Titans lead back D'Onta Foreman facing the team that drafted him before casting him away following a devastating injury in 2018. No Derrick Henry, no problem. At least this week as Houston has been flamed for 150 rush yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road this season. Of course, the Texans haven't been any better against the pass, giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.8 yppa this season. Take the over (9*). |
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11-20-21 | Capitals v. Sharks OVER 6 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Caps in their last game - a 2-0 victory in Los Angeles on Wednesday. They've managed to collect three of a possible four points in the first two games of their western road trip, with each of their last two contests staying 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in San Jose. This has been a high-scoring series with the last four meetings going back to the start of 2019 totaling 13, 6, 7 and 9 total goals. Here, we'll also note that the 'over' is 17-4 the last 21 times the Caps have come off a game that totaled three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As for the Sharks, they've seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 23 times they've come off three losses in their last four games. I'll also point out that this could be an Adin Hill game in goal for San Jose after James Reimer started the last two games. That's notable as Hill has posted a less than impressive .894 save percentage this season with the 'over' cashing in five of his eight starts. Take the over (9*). |
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11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Ducks are coming off a seven-goal explosion against Seattle on Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-2 win over the same Canucks they'll face again on Sunday. Note that you would have to go back three meetings here in Anaheim to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than three goals. Here, we'll note that the Ducks have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by two goals or more going back to last season with that situation totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is 13-4 the last 17 times Anaheim has played at home after putting up four goals or more in their last game, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. As for the Canucks, the 'under' is a long-term winner at 74-58 with them playing on the road looking for revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, with that situation leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. Also note that the Canucks average just 2.2 goals when coming off a game that totaled eight goals or more going back to last season (16-game sample size). Jaro Halak may get the start in goal for Vancouver tonight but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has arguably been better than regular starter Thatcher Demko, who started last night's 7-4 loss in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have exceeded admittedly low expectations between the pipes in Anaheim this season. Take the under (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have been involved in consecutive high-scoring 'over' results but both of those games were played at home. San Antonio's six road games this season have averaged just 204.8 total points with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip. With a number of key injuries, the Lakers have been highly-inconsistent offensively of late and are coming off an ugly 107-83 loss to the T'Wolves here at home on Friday. That's the same T'Wolves squad that the Clippers hung 129 points on last night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' is 28-15 in the Lakers last 43 games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-8 in Los Angeles' last 27 games as a home favorite of six points or less with that situation resulting in an average total of 213.9 points. As for the Spurs, the last 17 times they've played on the road off a loss they've seen an average total of just 216.5 points scored. Take the under (7*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams will enter this game confident that they can lean on running the football and playing tough defense to earn a much-needed victory on Sunday afternoon. Don't be misled by the Browns wild, high-scoring 41-16 rout of Cincinnati last week. The Bengals simply didn't take care of the football in that game and Cleveland took full advantage. It's not as if the Browns offense had to do much of the heavy lifting in that contest. They gained just 361 total yards and completed only 14 passes in the victory. New England somewhat inexplicably had a four-game 'over' streak going prior to last week's low-scoring affair against the Panthers. Note that they've racked up well north of 30 rushing attempts in three straight games while completing 18 or fewer passes in three of their last four games overall. Running the football on offense - and effectively shortening the game - while playing stout defense is a formula that has worked for Bill Bellichick this season and I can't see him straying from that in this very manageable matchup with the Browns. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Browns have come off a win by 21 points or more, resulting in an average total of only 32.8 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 games where the total has been set between 42.5 and 49 points, as is the case here, producing an average total of 42.7 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The T'Wolves are coming off a low-scoring blowout win over the Lakers here at Staples Center last night, ended a brief string of consecutive 'over' results. The Clippers on the other hand have seen their last three games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. The Clips are absolutely rolling offensively right now, having scored 120, 117 and 112 points in the first three games of their current homestand. They've had their way with the T'Wolves in recent years, scoring at least 115 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. While Minnesota's offense has come around on its current road trip, it continues to struggle defensively, and should for the foreseeable future. The Wolves caught the Lakers in a very difficult spot last night, undermanned and coming off a tough overtime win over the Heat, and took full advantage. Here, they won't be so fortunate. Note that the T'Wolves have seen an average total of 230.3 points the last 17 times they've come off an outright underdog win. The 'over' is 25-10 with Minnesota on the road coming off five or six losses over its last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Islanders collapsed in the third period in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Wild (we won with Minnesota in that game). If you know the Islanders and their style of play under head coach Barry Trotz, you know that they'll be determined to tighten things up in advance of Thursday's game against the Devils. Keep in mind, they last time they allowed five goals in a game this season, they followed that up with a 4-1 win in Chicago. This game sets up similarly. Here, the Devils check in off consecutive wins including a wild 7-3 victory over the Panthers (who were in a tough back-to-back spot with their backup goaltender forced to start both games) on Tuesday night. That sets New Jersey up in a spot here where it has gone 0-10 the last 10 times it has come off consecutive wins, averaging just 1.8 goals in that situation. Ordinarily, the Devils have a tendency to give up a lot of goals in that situation - an average of 4.4 to be exact. However, I'm not sure the Isles are well-positioned to take advantage offensively here. New York has averaged just 1.8 goals itself when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more going back to last season (11-game sample size). The 'under' is 23-9 with the Isles coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. You would have to go all the way back to January of 2018 to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than five goals in a game here in Newark. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Here, we'll switch gears a little bit and play the first half 'over' only, out of respect for the Suns coaching and their advantage of catching Portland in a back-to-back spot. There's certainly a chance we see Phoenix make the necessary adjustments at halftime and for the Blazers offense to fade in the second half in this spot - at least I believe that's well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Damian Lillard wasn't happy with the officiating in last night's game, or this season in general. He feels he's not getting the calls he should be. I would certainly expect him to come out aggressively against the Suns on Wednesday and I do think he'll get some of those calls he's been pining for. The Suns are of course without DeAndre Ayton but did manage to post a 109-104 victory in Sacramento on Monday. We have seen them consistently get off to slow starts defensively, allowing 59, 61, 58 and 64 points in the first half of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 38-21 in the first half with the Blazers having won two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 119.2 points. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted a 15-5 o/u mark in the first half going back to last season when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, producing an average total of 115.8 points. Take the first half over (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Last week I talked at length about how the Stars could see their o/u record start to reverse course toward the 'over' after a string of eight consecutive 'under' results to start the season. We saw just that as each of their last three games went 'over' the total. I expect a return to 'normal' as they return home on Wednesday to host the Predators, however. The Preds have posted a 4-8 o/u mark so far this season. Interestingly, if you only consider games where they've followed up at least two days off, the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0. That's the case here as they've been idle since Sunday in Chicago. Here, we'll note that the Stars have posted a 1-10 o/u mark in their last 11 home games when coming off a road loss, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 24-11 the last 35 times they've come off three losses in their last four games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. As for the Preds, they've had a tendency to get involved in tighter, lower-scoring games as road trips wear on, having posted a 6-16 o/u mark when playing on the road off two or more consecutive road games going back to last season. That spot has produced an average total of 5.0 goals and is already a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' on their current road trip. The last two meetings between these two teams in Dallas did go 'over' the total. We haven't seen three straight matchups in Big D between the Preds and Stars go 'over' since back in 2018-2019. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Blues most recent game - a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on Sunday night. St. Louis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first minute of that game but never scored again in a lopsided defeat. The Blues know they'll need to be better offensively if they're going to salvage anything from the finale of this four-game road trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. As I've noted before, the 'over' is now 21-12 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 6.7 goals in that spot. While St. Louis is now missing Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug, it recently welcomed back Ryan O'Reilly from Covid protocol. As for the Jets, they were shut out by the Islanders on home ice on Saturday. That sets us up well for a high-scoring affair here, noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Jets have come off a game in which they scored one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. You would have to go back three meetings here in Winnipeg to find the last time a game between these two teams stayed 'under' the total. Also note that the last time Connor Hellebuyck didn't start a game in this series, we saw 12 total goals in a wild 8-4 Jets victory. Hellebuyck is questionable to play on Tuesday as he continues to deal with an illness. Even if he can go, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and VCU and 6 pm et on Tuesday. St. Peter's returns all five starters from last year's team including defensive standout KC Ndefo and should prove to be a tricky season-opening non-conference opponent for VCU on Tuesday. The Peacocks ranked eighth in the country in defensive rating last season and will hang their hat on their play at the end of the floor again here in 2021-22. That's because their offense remains severely limited, noting they finished T233rd in pace rating and T324th in field goal percentage last season and don't figure to show a big improvement. This is certainly a tough season-opening draw for St. Peter's as well with VCU coming off a season that saw it finish 15th in the country in defensive rating and sixth in steals. While there are major questions in the backcourt, especially after losing Bones Hyland to the NBA and Ace Baldwin to a devastating ruptured achilles in the offseason, the Rams mantra will remain the same and that means playing a high-pressure brand of defense and being physical on offense, waiting for its opportunities to get to the rim rather than relying on outside shooting. The latter can result in draining the shot clock, and I'm confident Ndefo and the Peacocks will make them work for every basket down low. Both of these teams were comfortable playing games in the 110's and 120's last season and I would expect nothing different as they work out the kinks in Tuesday's season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that the starting goaltenders appear locked in for this game I am going to make a small play on the 'under'. Spencer Knight looks like he'll get the call for the Panthers in goal as Sergei Bobrovsky isn't quite ready to return from a lower body injury. I don't mind Knight being in goal here at all, in fact I like it as he has posted a solid .918 save percentage this season and is by all accounts the Panthers goaltender of the future. As for the Rangers, they'll go back to Igor Shesterkin after he gave up six goals in Calgary on Saturday night. Keep in mind, the last time he allowed five goals or more this season (also against the Flames) he followed up that game with a shutout against the Blue Jackets. The Panthers have other injury concerns as well with Sasha Barkov a game-time decision tonight. His impact on the team offensively is obvious. We'll make this play assuming he'll be in the lineup but if he's sidelined again we'll consider it a bonus. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Panthers playing on the road off a home win in which they scored four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 8-1 the last nine times they've played at home after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.2 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 12-3 the last 15 times when playing at home after a loss by two goals or more, with an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. Take the under (5*). |
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11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed badly with the 'over' in the Rockets matinee affair against the Nuggets in Denver yesterday as Houston turned in a rare strong defensive showing (or perhaps it was just a sleepy game all around) in a narrow one-point loss. The Rockets are still a bad defensive team as far as I'm concerned and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against the red hot Warriors on Sunday. Note that on eight occasions where they've been listed as a 12.5-point or higher road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, the Rockets have put up an impressive 118.4 points on average, resulting in an average total of 244.8 points in that situation, as is the case here. The 'over' is 14-4 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, leading to an average total of 233.6 points in that spot. The Warriors have held each of their last three opponents to 92 points or less but I do think some regression is in order here. I do think they'll come out with an attacking mentality given the Rockets are in a second of back-to-back and three-in-four spot here and the pace alone should help the Houston offense contribute enough to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Note that Houston did put up 109 points in its lone trip to San Francisco last season with that game totaling 234 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. After an inexplicable seven-game 'over' streak we've seen each of the Ducks last two games stay 'under' the total and I anticipate more of the same as they host the Blues on Sunday night. The Blues are coming off an 'over' result last time out against the Sharks (we won with the 'over' in that game) and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 43-27 when they follow up such a result over the last 2+ seasons. The 'under' is also 37-22 with St. Louis coming off a game in which seven or more total goals were scored over the same stretch, as is the case here. As for the Ducks, the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times they've played at home after a win by two goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 3-1 win over Arizona. While the Blues are expected to get Ryan O'Reilly back in the lineup on Sunday, they're now without Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug. Meanwhile, the Ducks are dealing with possible absences of Jakob Silfverberg and Trevor Zegras. Goaltender John Gibson could miss as well but that's not overly concerning as backup Anthony Stolarz has performed well, posting a .912 save percentage in four games. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are quick to dismiss the Broncos offense and skeptical of their ability to contribute enough points to help this one 'over' the lofty total. I have no such concerns. Denver will head into this game inside the friendly confines of Jerry World knowing that it will need to put up plenty of points to potentially keep pace with the high-octane Cowboys, especially with QB Dak Prescott likely to be back on the field. With WR Jerry Jeudy back in the mix, the Broncos do have some weapons to work with on offense and while the Cowboys secondary boasts plenty of flash and ball-hawking ability, it has also given up plenty of yardage (and points). I don't think we'll see the Broncos bang their heads against the wall all afternoon trying to run the football. Instead look for QB Teddy Bridgewater to take some shots downfield and potentially find some success against a beatable Cowboys pass defense. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense should feast against a severely depleted Broncos defense that was already without Bradley Chubb but now loses defensive anchor Von Miller (traded to the Rams) and key pass defender Bryce Callahan (knee injury). Trying to defend the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb is going to be an absolute nightmare for the Broncos defense here and that's before we even mention Dallas' incredible ground attack that ranks among the best in the league. With a cluster of injuries in their linebacking corps, there's little reason to have confidence in the Broncos run defense against the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on Sunday. Take the over (9*). |
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11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 94-95 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets have now seen the 'under' cash in four straight and seven of their eight games so far this season. I believe Houston is an ideal opponent to break that streak on Saturday afternoon in Denver. Note that the Nuggets absolutely throttled the Rockets defense in three meetings last year, putting up 124, 128 and 129 points. The two games played here in Denver between these two teams totaled 235 and 245 points. The Rockets come into this game having dropped the first three games on their current road trip. Houston isn't going to play much defense but it can score, as evidenced by the fact that it enters this contest having put up 117 and 111 points in its last two games. The Rockets should continue to push the pace here as they try to break out of their slide, keeping in mind they did manage to score 111 and 116 points in two matchups here in Denver last season. The same trend we've supported in the Rockets last two games is in play again here, noting that the 'over' is 14-3 with Houston playing on the road off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 236.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Kings 'over' in their most recent game against the Blues - a 3-2 shootout victory on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. New Jersey is coming off a low-scoring game of its own - ending a stretch of three straight games that totaled at least six goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 10-3 the last 13 times the Devils have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 12-3 with the Devils coming off a game that totaled four goals or less going back to last season, producing a total of 6.7 goals on average in that spot. This is a situation where the Devils themselves have fared well offensively, noting that they average an impressive 3.9 goals when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons. As for the Kings, they've held three straight opponents to exactly two goals. I don't believe that level of defensive success is sustainable, especially with Drew Doughty sidelined and a relatively weak goaltending tandem of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Speaking of goaltenders, the Devils have leaned on three different ones already this season as they try to tread water until MacKenzie Blackwood can return. While neither of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, I'm expecting plenty of goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 223.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers haven't been involved in as many high-scoring track meets as they were last season, at least early on here in 2021-22. With that being said, I believe the totals have been over-adjusted as a result. With the 'under' having cashed in three of Indiana's last four games, I believe we're being given a very reasonable number to work with here. The Pacers enter this contest on their first two-game winning streak of the season. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive victories, resulting in an average total of 241.5 points. As for the Blazers, they're reeling right now off three straight losses. All three of those losses came on the road though. Back at home, I expect them to go back to their sharp-shooting ways. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 236.0 points in that spot. The last time we saw these two teams match up they combined to score a whopping 245 points last April. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 213 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic are coming off an awful showing against the Celtics two nights ago as they fell by a score of 92-79 in an extremely low-scoring affair. I look for a different story to unfold as they welcome the Spurs to Amway Arena on Friday night. Keep in mind, prior to that poor performance, the Magic had scored 111, 109, 103 and 115 points in their previous four games. The 'over' is still 6-3 in their nine games to date this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 24-10 with the Magic revenging a same-season loss against an opponent going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 221.8 points. Better still, the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Orlando has been at home revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent (the Spurs beat the Magic 123-97 in San Antonio on October 20th), producing an average total of 228.5 points in that spot. The Spurs check in having scored 118 and 108 points in their last two games, shooting 52.8% and 48.9% from the field in those two contests. The 'over' is 23-11 in their last 34 games against Eastern Conference foes, with an average total of 227.5 points scored. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Memphis is coming off consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' is 4-1 in its last five contests. I look for that trend to reverse on Friday, however, as the Grizzlies head to Washington to face the Wizards. Washington is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair of its own against Toronto two nights ago. Note that prior to that, the Wiz had seen their last three games go 'over' the total with those contests reaching 233, 227 and 229 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Grizzlies on the road coming off three wins in their last four games going back to last season, good for an average total of 240.7 points. When the Grizz play on the road off consecutive wins, they're on a 13-2 'over' streak, with that situation producing an average total of 238.9 points. As for the Wizards, they've seen an average total of 238.8 points scored the last 24 times they've played at home following an 'under' result. Expect a return to 'normal' for Washington here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-04-21 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight. We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*). |
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11-04-21 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blues 3-2 shootout loss in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday as they head to San Jose to take on the undermanned Sharks. Note that the 'over' has gone 44-27 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result over the L2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. It's also worth mentioning that the Blues have allowed 3.4 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the same stretch (35-game sample size), good for an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. As for the Sharks, they've averaged 3.5 goals with an average total of 6.3 goals when playing at home off a home game where both teams scored three or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Sabres. This series produced some wild, high-scoring affairs last season with four of eight meetings totaling at least seven goals and one of those contests reaching a whopping 13 goals right here in San Jose. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 218 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've yet to see scoring really pick up in the NBA this season but I do think it's only a matter of time before we see a shift away from the lower-scoring contests. In this spot, I simply feel the total has been set too low. The Rockets are by no means a quality defensive team. They're going to have their hands full with a surging Suns squad on Thursday night. We have seen Houston stay competitve at times this season thanks to its offense. That could very well be the case again on Thursday. Note that the 'over' is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets have played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points. On the flip side, the Suns have seen the 'over' cash at a 23-9 clip the last 32 times they've come off a double-digit win, producing an average total of 227 points in that spot. The 'over' is also a profitable 39-22 after the Suns give up 105 points or less in a game over the last 2+ seasons, good for an average total of 224.4 points in that situation. The last time these two teams met in the desert they combined to put up 246 points last April. We don't need anything close to that level of track meet to cash this ticket. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*). |
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11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lightning in their most recent game - a 3-2 victory over the Capitals on Monday. We also won with the 'under' in the Leafs 4-0 shutout victory over the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Here, I'll back the 'under' again as Toronto continues its homestand against the surging Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay has won three games in a row, scoring 13 goals in the process. I still feel the Lightning are somewhat depleted offensively this season and the numbers bear it out as they've been held to three runs or less in six of nine games so far this season. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 the last 11 times the Lightning have played on the road off a home win, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. The Leafs have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games and here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-1 in their last 11 home games off a home win by two goals or more over the last season-plus, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 with the Leafs playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.7 goals. Of course, these two teams haven't met since before the pandemic in early March 2020. That last meeting took place here in Toronto and totaled just three goals in a 2-1 Leafs victory. Take the under (9*). |
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11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Blackhawks in their 5-1 victory on Monday night. That came against the lowly Senators in a game where they were provided a big emotional lift with the return of Patrick Kane, who came up big with a hat trick. They should find the going a little tougher in a quick rematch against the Canes, who defeated them by a 6-3 score in Carolina last Friday (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blackhawks have played at home after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored in that spot. The Canes are rolling right now, off to a perfect 8-0 start to the season. Here, they'll be heading on the road following a four-game homestand. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times that situation has come up going back to last season, resulting in an average total of only 4.6 goals. I don't see this contest playing out like last Friday's wild, high-scoring affair that saw both teams start their 'backup' goaltenders (Antti Raanta for the Canes and Kevin Lankinen for the Blackhawks). We're likely to see Frederik Andersen (.956 save percentage in seven games this season) and Marc-Andre Fleury (who has allowed just two goals on 67 shots over his last two games) on Wednesday night. Take the under (8*). |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last season as Western Michigan prevailed by a 52-44 score. Keep in mind, prior to that you would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time the two teams combined to put up more than 63 points. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this time around as both teams enter this pivotal MAC showdown sporting identical 2-2 conference records. Western Michigan is known for its offense and while it is capable of putting up points in bunches, it has also been prone to scoring lapses this season, as noted by the fact that it has been held to 24 points or less in four of its last five games. The lone explosion over that stretch came in a 64-31 rout of a Kent State squad that doesn't play a lick of defense and operates at a break-neck pace on offense. I'm higher on the Western Michigan defense than some. This is a talented and experienced group that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor and didn't allow a touchdown against Michigan until nearly six minutes into the second quarter way back in Week 1. The Wolverines ultimately did get rolling in that game but it was evident that the Broncos weren't going to be pushovers defensively. Led by DL Ali Fayad, the Broncos defense should be able to pose plenty of problems for a less-than-stellar Central Michigan offensive line in this one. The Chippewas are coming off a 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois last time out. Combine that with their high-scoring loss to the Broncos in last year's meeting and you can understand why they wouldn't necessarily want to get involved in another shootout here. The Chippewas started the season with Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon at quarterback but he's since been replaced by Daniel Richardson. Richardson, while experienced running the offense, hasn't been all that dynamic, completing just over 58% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He has posted an impressive 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio but again, I expect him to be under duress for much of tonight's game. Look for the Chips' to make a concerted effort to churn out long drives in this one and effectively shorten the game. Note that their two previous MAC road games have totaled just 45 and 57 points. Take the under (9*). |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Senators v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Senators last night as they fell by a 5-1 score in Chicago. They've been giving up goals in bunches lately, allowing a whopping 16 in their last 10 periods of hockey. With that in mind, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in Tuesday's contest as the Sens continue their road trip in Minnesota. The Wild were held to just five goals over the course of a 1-2 road trip. I look for them to bounce back offensively here at home where we've seen them score 12 goals in three games this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wild have come off three consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. The 'over' is also 16-5 the last 21 times Minnesota has played at home off consecutive road losses by two goals or more, good for an average total of 6.5 goals. As for the Sens, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 15-4 clip the last 19 times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, with an average total of 7.2 goals scored in that situation. These two teams last met in 2019. They matched up in Minnesota once in 2018 and then again in 2019 with those two games totaling 10 and 9 goals, respectively. Take the over (8*). |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 58.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ball State and Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a big game for Ball State as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Miami-Ohio and pick up a much-needed fourth victory of the season to keep its hopes of reaching a possible Bowl game alive. While it looks like a layup on paper, I don't expect Akron to simply roll over. The Zips are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, at home no less, after they had managed to split a two-game road trip, going a perfect 2-0 ATS along the way. While Akron is by no means a defensive stalwart, it's not as if teams have been bombing away against it. The Zips have allowed over 20 pass completions only twice this season. Yes, opponents have generally elected to run the ball down their throats but Ball State isn't an elite rushing team, averaging only 116 rush yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush this season with that number dropping to 3.3 ypr on the road. Of course, the Zips offense has been rather punchless as usual and this doesn't look like an ideal breakout spot against a Ball State squad that has allowed 22, 20, 31 and 24 points against much tougher opposition in conference play. Take the under (9*). |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's early in the season but this is a key Atlantic Division showdown between the Bulls and Celtics. I believe the first half total will prove too low as both teams look to get off to quick starts on Monday night. Note that the Bulls have got off to plenty of fast starts offensively this season, scoring 65, 54, 61, 51 and 54 points in the first half over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Celtics had put up 53, 68 and 52 points in the first half in their last three contests before being held to only 47 points in the back half of a home-and-home set with the Wizards on Saturday. Poor starts defensively have been problematic for the C's this season as they check in giving up 56.2 points on average in the first half through their first six games. I think both teams will come into this game knowing they're going to need to put up a lot of points to secure a win. I do respect both head coaches and feel that the necessary defensive adjustments could be made at halftime, however, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only in this one. Take the first half over (8*). |
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10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214 | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. The Nets have seen all six of their games stay 'under' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday. Detroit is coming off three consecutive games scoring over 100 points despite shooting 44% or worse in all three contests. The Nets got into a bit of a slog against the struggling Pacers last time out but I believe the Pistons will be more easily baited into a high-scoring affair here. Like Detroit, Brooklyn hasn't been shooting particularly well but this looks like a fine spot to improve on their shooting percentage and pad their offensive starts noting that the Pistons have allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, allowing 122, 110 and 103 points in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone 29-15 with the Nets coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 231 points. Also note that two of three meetings between these two teams last season reached at least 224 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Anaheim at 4 pm et on Sunday. The Canadiens woes continued yesterday as they fell by a 5-2 score in Los Angeles. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Habs playing on the road after allowing five goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 22-11 with Montreal playing on the road following an 'over' result over the same stretch, producing an average total of 5.1 goals. As for the Ducks, they're on a streak of six consecutive 'over' results. The 'under' is a long-term winner at 104-73 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, as is the case here. I'll also point out that Anaheim averages a miserable 1.1 goals when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals (14-game sample size). Take the under (7*). |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Coyotes v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Carolina at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Hurricanes 6-3 rout of Chicago on Friday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the reeling Coyotes roll into Carolina. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Canes coming off five or more consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Canes at home off three or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Interestingly, Carolina has come off a game that totaled nine or more goals four times over the last season-plus and in its next contest, it has averaged a woeful 1.3 goals with an average total of only 4.1 goals scored. Arizona has been absolutely dreadful offensively but does come off a game in which it allowed only two goals in a shutout loss against the Capitals. Take the under (9*). |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 94-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. We've seen this total drop, likely due in part to the questionable tag on Joel Embiid as he deals with a nagging knee injury. Regardless whether the 76ers big man plays or not, I like this one to go 'over' the total. Note that the Hawks will be playing their third road game in the last five nights. The 'over' has cashed at a 13-2 clip in that same situation over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 231.9 points scored. The 76ers are coming off a low-scoring win over the Pistons. They didn't play at a fast pace in that game but probably knew they didn't have to against a subpar Detroit offense. Here, I think we'll see the Sixers make a more concerted effort to get up and down the floor and keep pace as the Hawks are fully capable of going off offensively. Note that the 76ers have averaged 114.8 points when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 220.1 points (45-game sample size). The last four meetings between these two teams did stay 'under' the total but that was during their seven-game playoff series last June. Two of the first three contests in that series had gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and San Jose at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been involved in some high-scoring games this season. In fact, they've already matched up once, right here in San Jose back on October 16th. That game totaled seven goals. Here, I look for a different story to unfold however. Note that the Jets have averaged just 2.0 goals the last 17 times they've played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 17-7 with the Jets playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-5 with the Sharks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, producing an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, the 'under' has gone an impressive 35-18 with the Sharks coming off a game in which they gave up four or more goals over the same stretch. While the 'over' did cash in the first matchup between these teams this season, the 'under' has actually cashed in two of their last three meetings here in San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Lakers are coming off three straight exceptionally high-scoring games but I like the 'catalyst for change' angle here as they return home to host the upstart Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland has reeled off three straight wins including two in a row to open its current road trip and it has done it by playing tough defense and controlling the tempo on offense. Only four teams have had fewer possessions per game than the Cavs this season. The formula has been working so I don't see them changing anything on Friday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-3 with the Cavs coming off a game where both teams scored 105 points or less over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 201.0 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in with the 'under' having gone 15-2 the last 17 times they've come off a stretch that saw them lose four of their last five games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 206.4 points. They're still dealing with a number of key injuries and regardless who suits up on Friday night, I expect them to make an effort to step up their game defensively after that second half collapse in Oklahoma City two nights ago. The last time these two teams met the Lakers cruised to a 100-86 win here in Los Angeles last March with that game staying 'under' the total by 20 points. Look for this total to prove too high as well. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*). |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series through two games but that's only served to afford us a reasonable total to work with as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 17-5 in Houston's last 22 games as a road underdog, resulting in an average total of 11.2 runs scored. In fact, you would have to go back to August 3rd to find the last time an Astros road game in which they were an underdog finished 'under' the total. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Braves have played at home off consecutive 'under' results (you have to go back four games to find their last 'over' result as Game 2 of this series settled on a 'push'), good for an average total of 10.4 runs in that spot. Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as at home this season, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's coming off his best start of the postseason as he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but that was at home. Braves starter Ian Anderson hasn't worked more than five innings in any of his three previous starts in these playoffs. He's been good, but certainly not great and here we'll note that he has made three starts against American League opponents this season and hasn't fared well, recording a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Note that the Braves have given Anderson a whopping 6.7 runs per start of support here at home this season. The Astros bullpen has not been all that reliable on the road this season, posting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 19 saves converted compared to 17 blown. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 14 blown at home. Against American League foes, the Braves relief corps has posted an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only three saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. While I'm not necessarily anticipating a shootout in this game, I do feel the total has been set far too low, largely due to the inept nature of the RedBlacks offense in recent weeks. There is reason for some optimism when it comes to the Ottawa offense entering this game, however. Calgary is coming off four straight division games, including three hard-fought battles against the Roughriders. The Stamps defense has certainly held up well but I do feel that this is a spot where we could see them suffer a letdown of sorts, noting that they've allowed at least 22 points in all three previous matchups against East Division opponents this season. Yes, Ottawa has been dreadful on offense in recent weeks but it did recently add former Pittsburgh Steelers QB Duck Hodges and he should push current starting QB Caleb Evans, who has shown some positive flashes, as we wind down the stretch this season. It's the defensive side of the football where I'm most concerned for the RedBlacks as they've been ravaged by injuries to a unit that wasn't all that great to begin with. They've been absolutely lit up in recent weeks, 'letting go of the rope' so to speak as they near the end of a trying season. Over the last two games, they've allowed 59 points while giving up 247 rushing yards and over 600 passing yards. The fact that they still allowed 27 points despite benefiting from three turnovers against Montreal two weeks ago was telling. While Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been turnover-prone, here he'll benefit from facing a RedBlacks secondary that is a shell of its former self due in large part to a cluster of injuries. Interestingly, Calgary has had a better scoring offense on the road than at home, averaging 25.2 points per game in enemy territory compared to its 22.1 ppg overall scoring average. As for Ottawa, it has been marginally better at putting points on the board at home, averaging 19.6 points per game compared to its 15.6 ppg season scoring average. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has now fallen into playable range for us thanks to the Packers missing two of their top offensive weapons in WRs Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. I'm not overly concerned by their absence. The Packers gameplan doesn't really change. They knew they were going to have to play aggressively on offense in this one, knowing that they're unlikely to limit the Cardinals offense (remember, Green Bay is still without two of its best defensive players in CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith). Note that the Packers are coming off four straight 'under' results, which also helps keep this total is a reasonable range. Every once in a while you will see the high-octane Cardinals get involved in a low-scoring affair. It just so happens that we've seen it in two of their last three games. Those games were against San Francisco (with rookie QB Trey Lance starting at the time) and Houston (with struggling rookie Davis Mills at quarterback). Even without Adams, the Packers offense is still more than capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard as last time I checked Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones were still healthy. Thanks to recent blowout wins, the Cardinals haven't had to really keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters. Make no mistake though, their offense is more than capable of marching up and down the field and scoring in bunches in this one. They've put up 30+ points in six of seven games and that's with five of those games resulting in a margin of victory in the double-digits. In what should be a more competitive affair on Thursday, I think the potential is there for a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
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10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off fairly high-scoring contests with the Bruins prevailing by a 4-3 score over the Sharks and the Panthers skating to a 5-3 win over the Coyotes. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair when they match up in Sunrise on Wednesday night. The Bruins have actually topped out at four goals in their first four games this season, alternating high and low-scoring games as they check in sporting a 2-2 o/u mark. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Bruins playing on the road off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. The 'under' is also a rock solid 11-3 when the Bruins come off consecutive games in which they scored four or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, good for an average of just 4.9 total goals scored in that spot. On the flip side, the Panthers are in a strong 'under' situation here, noting that the 'under' has gone 64-35 in their last 99 home games after scoring three or more goals in three straight games, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Panthers coming off five or more consecutive wins, producing an average total of 4.9 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met we saw just three total goals - that game was also played in Florida. Both of tonight's expected starting goaltenders come in playing well with Linus Ullmark doing his best to win the starting job over Jeremy Swayman having posted a .935 save percentage in two games and Sergei Bobrovsky performing as well as he has at any point in his career, sporting a .942 save percentage through four games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Jets v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' when these two teams met in Winnipeg last week, thanks only to a late flurry of goals from the Jets in what turned out to be a lopsided contest. Here, I'm expecting the Ducks to offer a little more resistance, and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of Winnipeg's last four games and each of Anaheim's last three. Interestingly enough, the last time we saw a Jets 'under' result came right here in Anaheim back in their season-opening 4-1 loss to the Ducks. Here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 the last 12 times the Jets have played on the road after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, good for an average total of only 4.5 goals. I'll also point out that the Ducks have given up just 2.6 goals per game the last 11 times they've come off consecutive road losses. We haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series produce more than five total goals since back in January/February of 2019. Take the under (9*). |
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10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*). |
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