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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 220 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. There's some question as to whether Zion Williamson will be able to play in this one after spraining his thumb on Monday night against Boston. While I do think there's a good chance he'll be on the floor with the Pelicans needing every win they can get in the playoff push, even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair. We of course won with the Magic in Tuesday's upset win over the Clippers. We saw Orlando come into its own a little bit offensively in that one, scoring 66 second half points while getting a boost from the return of sharp-shooter Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are coming off an upset win of their own, securing a 115-109 victory in Boston on Monday. That marked their third straight 'under' result. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 12-0 when the Pelicans come off an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 243.5 points. The 'over' has also gone 10-1 when the Pelicans play at home off an ATS victory this season with those games reaching an average total of 240.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 27-12 when the Magic play with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a tightly-contested, low-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago at the United Center but I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Canes offense got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday and he wasted no time contributing, chipping in with an assist on their lone goal in over 18 minutes played while also firing six shots on goal. Look for the Canes offense to get rewarded here on Thursday as they face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed a whopping 3.9 goals per game when playing at home after a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, with that situation producing 7.7 total goals on average with the 'over' cashing at a 12-3 clip. The 'over' has gone 25-13 when the Blackhawks play at home off a win over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season and prior to Tuesday's game had been playing well, scoring 11 goals during a three-game winning streak. Note that Tuesday's 'under' result was the first of its kind in this series this season with the previous three meetings totaling 7, 10 and 8 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Wild v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set between the Wild and Sharks on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Wednesday. Minnesota has now been held to three goals or less in seven consecutive games and doesn't figure to break out of that scoring slump here, noting that it averages just 2.3 goals per game when revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Likewise, the 'under' is 35-21 and the Wild average 2.3 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 5.1 goals. Despite Monday's four-goal outburst, the Sharks are still averaging just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. They average just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off a game where seven or more goals were scored over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche have served 'over' bettors very well lately, posting a 7-1 o/u record over their last eight games. Likewise, the Coyotes have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests overall. I look for a reversal of sorts here, however, as the Avs look for some revenge for a 5-4 loss in Arizona on March 23rd. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado revenges a road loss against an opponent this season, giving up just 1.2 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored. We've also seen the Avs allow just 2.0 goals per game when coming off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Arizona has proven to be a streaky team offensively, noting it averages just 2.0 goals per game following an 'under' result this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 34-17 when the Coyotes follow a game where four total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: This total has dropped since it was made official that Donovan Mitchell will miss the game for the Jazz. I still like the play at the adjusted total. We've had a good read on Jazz totals lately, cashing with the 'over' in their win over the Grizzlies last Friday before hitting the 'under' in Monday's rout of the Cavs. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as they head out on the road to face the Grizzlies for the third time in less than a week. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm a believe in familiarity lending itself to relatively low-scoring games, regardless the sport. While the two meetings between these two teams in Utah on Friday and Saturday both found their way 'over' the total, we're dealing with a higher number here (at the time of writing) and it's worth mentioning that three of their last four meetings in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total with the most recent meeting here totaling just 197 points. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 107 points per game after playing their last two games away from home over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 215.1 points. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a higher-scoring team away from home compared to here in Memphis this season, where they average just 109.1 points per game. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 9-15 o/u record at home. The Jazz are absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held four of their last five opponents to 40.6% or worse shooting. The Grizzlies did sting them for 114 and 110 points in their two matchups last weekend but I would look for that situation to correct itself here, noting that the Jazz have allowed just 106.3 points per game when coming off a double-digit win this season. Look for the Jazz to conserve a little energy if they can in this one with a five-game in seven-night stretch beginning on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Michigan at 9:55 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Michigan's Sweet 16 victory over Florida State on Sunday in a game that only came close to approaching the total thanks to its lopsided nature. Here, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair and will go back to the well with the 'under' once again. UCLA certainly didn't enter this tournament looking like an elite defensive team but we have seen the Bruins round into form at that end of the floor over the last couple of games, holding Abilene Christian and Alabama to a combined 37.3% shooting. Michigan has shot the lights out in this tournament so far but I would anticipate some regression in that department on Tuesday. It's worth noting that the Wolverines entered this tournament ranked a less than impressive 175th in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. I like the fact that both of these teams should be able to run their offenses on Tuesday night, with neither defense overly disruptive. UCLA entered the tourney ranked 299th in the nation in steals per possession while Michigan checked in an ugly 331st in that department. Both teams prefer to work deep into the shot clock on offense, with UCLA entering the tournament ranked 288th nationally in possessions per game and Michigan checking in 259th. The Bruins were involved in a more up-tempo game against Alabama on Sunday, although that one still only managed to get to 130 points in regulation time. Michigan has scored 82, 86 and 76 points through three games in this tournament. Keep in mind, the Wolverines had scored fewer than 70 points in four of their last five games heading in. Look for a return to 'normal' here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets simply aren't scoring right now, managing three goals or less in each of their last seven games and one goal or less in three of their last four. While the Lightning are known for their offense, they've been even sharper defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.0 goals per game on the season. Tampa Bay has reason to tighten things up here as it returns home off consecutive 4-3 losses in Dallas and Carolina. The loss in Carolina was particularly frustrating as it grabbed an early 2-0 lead before a disastrous second period that saw it give up three unanswered goals. While Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed four goals in back-to-back games that is largely due to Tampa giving up 40+ shots in those two contests. I'm confident we'll see a strong bounce-back performance from Vasilevskiy and the Lightning here. Note that Columbus has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after losing two or more games in a row on the road over the last three seasons, posting a 2-10 o/u record in that spot. Conversely, the Blue Jackets average just 2.1 goals per game when playing a third consecutive game on the road over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'under' going 21-6 in that situation with an average of just 4.4 total goals scored. The Lightning average just 2.8 goals per game off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, which is significant considering they average 3.7 goals per game overall this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams combined to score nine goals thanks to a wild third period on Sunday in Washington (the Capitals led the game 3-0 entering the third period before hanging on for a 5-4 win). I expect a lower-scoring affair in Tuesday night's rematch in Manhattan. The Caps have now scored four goals or more in three straight games but should face a tough challenge keeping that streak alive here, noting that the Rangers have allowed just 2.3 goals on average following a loss this season and have given up just 2.1 goals per game in 14 situations coming off a game where 9+ goals were scored over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, they held the Caps to just three goals combined in splitting a two-game set in Washington a couple of weeks ago. The Capitals will be venturing out on the road for the first time since March 15th. They boosted their scoring average away from home thanks to their last four road games coming against two of the league's worst defensive teams in Philadelphia and Buffalo. Here, they'll face a Rangers squad that allows just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last time out I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Monday night in San Jose. The Wild are coming off a perfect 3-0 homestand that also saw the 'under' go a perfect 3-0. They shut out the Blues 2-0 the last time they took the ice on Thursday. Note that the road hasn't been quite as kind to Minnesota this season as it has allowed 3.0 goals per game in a visitors role. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Wild come off six or seven wins in their last eight games this season, allowing a whopping 4.5 goals per game in that spot with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. The Sharks couldn't keep the positive momentum building off consecutive home wins over the rival Kings, dropping back-to-back games in Arizona on Friday and Saturday. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in Saturday's 4-0 drubbing but I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Note that San Jose is averaging 3.4 goals per game following an 'under' result over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. Playing at home off a shutout loss, the Sharks have averaged 3.3 goals per game in the long-term picture, with the 'over' cashing at a 41-21 clip. The three previous meetings between these two teams this season have averaged 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday. The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This is obviously a game that the Jazz can all but circle as a win as they look for their 20th victory at home on Monday night. While I'm not interested in laying the boatload of points in a spot where Utah should be able to name its score, I will call for a lower-scoring game than betting marketplace is accounting for. Note that the Cavs are averaging just north of 98 points per game on the road this season and don't figure to bust out against one of the league's best defensive teams statistically speaking. Jarrett Allen was becoming a big part of what the Cavs do offensively, scoring in double-figures in five straight games before going down with a concussion against the Lakers on Friday. He won't play on Monday. While Utah is coming off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against Memphis (we won with the 'over' in Friday's game), the Jazz are actually locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 45.4% or lower shooting, limiting three of those opponents to 40.6% or worse. Again, the Cavs don't figure to be the team to throw the Jazz off course. Utah did shoot 50% from the field in Saturday's win over the Grizzlies, but that only served to snap a skid of 10 straight games shooting worse than 49%. It's certainly something worth noting should the pace slow a bit in this one once the Jazz are able to build a sizeable lead. The 'under' has gone 57-39 when the Jazz host non-conference opponents under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those games totaling just 202.1 points on average. Likewise, the 'under' is 87-64 when the Jazz play at home off a win under Snyder, with those contests reaching an average of 202.9 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The front half of this two-game set found its way 'over' the total no Saturday night as the Leafs delivered a 4-3 victory on home ice. I see value with the 'under' on Monday, however. While both teams are known for their offenses, both have also proven capable defensively, with Edmonton allowing just 2.7 goals per game on the road and Toronto giving up 2.6 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 when the Oilers play on the road off a road game where both teams scored at least three goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 5.3 goals. The 'under' has also gone 50-29 when the Oilers come off a game where there were seven or more goals scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 5.8 goals. Edmonton has generally been a solid bounce-back play on the road, giving up just 2.3 goals per game when playing away from home off a loss over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto averages only 2.3 goals per game coming off a one-goal win at home over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Islanders have managed to take four of a possible six points on their current road trip, head coach Barry Trotz can't be happy with his team's performance over the last two games as they've given up a whopping nine goals, including a 6-3 loss to these same Penguins on Saturday. That sets us up well to play the 'under' in Monday's rematch, noting that the 'under' is 11-3 when the Isles play on the road revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Also note that New York has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that spot and those contests totaling an average of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Pens have posted an 0-6 o/u record when playing at home off three straight wins by multiple goals, as is the case here. That situation, albeit with a small sample size, has produced an average of just 4.1 total goals. Finally, the Isles check in having given up a minuscule 0.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season. That situation has only come up six times with the 'under' going a perfect 6-0. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers last night as they pulled out an overtime victory to snap their three-game losing streak. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I anticipate a low-scoring affair in Big D. While Florida does average an impressive 3.6 goals per game on the road this season it remains undermanned with Sasha Barkov unlikely to return to the lineup on Sunday and Patric Hornqvist sidelined for an extended period. Note that the Stars have given up just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. On the flip side, the Stars average just 2.1 goals per game following consecutive contests where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Prior to last night's contest, the first three meetings between these two teams this season all produced five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames ran into a wall offensively on their most recent road trip, scoring just two goals over their last three games in Toronto and Ottawa after opening the trip with a four-goal outburst against the Leafs. At the face of it, scoring two goals in two games against the Senators looks awful. However, the Sens have been doing a much better job of keeping the puck out of their net, clearly placing a major emphasis on playing sound defense during their homestand. Just ask the Leafs, who scored just two goals in regulation time before escaping with an overtime win in Ottawa last night. Now Calgary finally returns home, where it averages 3.3 goals per game this season. It catches the Jets in a favorable situation here, noting that Winnipeg has allowed 3.9 goals per game when coming off a division road win over the last two seasons, with the 'over' going 12-2 in that situation, and those games averaging 7.3 total goals. Winnipeg has also allowed 3.7 goals per game following a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Wednesday's 5-1 win. The Jets have been one of the best offensive teams on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game in enemy territory. Winnipeg averages 3.5 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling just north of six goals on average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. Detroit has been shutout in each of its last two games and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. There's little reason to anticipate much progression here, noting that Detroit averages just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and 1.9 goals per game when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the same period. While the Wings are by no means a good defensive team, the Predators aren't likely to run it up on them, noting that Nashville averages only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and has scored more than three goals in regulation time just once in its last eight games. It's worth noting that Nashville averages just 2.2 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. We've seen the 'under' cash in three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Nashville. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This will be the fourth consecutive game between the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets with the previous three all staying 'under' the total. I look for that trend to continue on Thursday. After Tuesday's 3-0 shutout loss, it's worth noting that the Jackets haven't exactly thrived in a bounce-back role, averaging just 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games averaging a total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' has gone 25-9 when Columbus plays at home after winning two of its last three games, with those contests totaling an average of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes average a miserable 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road following a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with those games averaging only 4.8 total goals. That same situation has produced a 3-12 o/u record over the last two seasons. I always like to say that familiarity lends itself to low-scoring games and with this being the seventh meeting between these two teams this season, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair two nights ago as the Sharks skated to a 2-1 victory on home ice. I'm expecting a higher-scoring contest on Wednesday night. Note that while San Jose gave up just one goal in Monday's game, it has still allowed 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 19-9 when the Sharks come off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. I'll also point out that the 'over' is 16-6 when San Jose plays at home off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 7.0 goals. The Kings average a respectable 2.9 goals per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons but also allow 3.6 goals per game coming off a game where four goals or less were scored over the last three seasons. Prior to Monday, the two previous meetings between these two rivals this season both produced at least seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this same matchup last week but I'm going to come back with the same play in the rematch on Tuesday night. We won with the Lightning on Sunday as they poured it on late for a 5-3 victory over the Panthers. While they're certainly the superior team in this matchup, Dallas is set up reasonably well having allowed just 2.2 goals per game coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, and giving up just 2.6 goals per game on average at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 20-6 when the Stars play at home off of three losses in their last four games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. This will mark the 10th meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 with Tampa holding Dallas to three goals or less in seven of the last nine matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Obviously the looming possibility of Thomas Greiss getting the start in goal for the Red Wings is concerning (Greiss has been awful this season) but I think it is offset by the way this situation sets up in general, supporting a play on the 'under'. The Predators are coming off an encouraging road trip that saw them win four games while also grabbing a point in an overtime loss over the course of eight games. This quote from Ryan Johansen has me concerned a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however. "This was a make-or-break trip for us. We had to find a way to get points and win some games, and then we did that." Note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Preds returning home following a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 10-1 when the Preds return home following a road win in which they scored four or more goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of just 3.8 goals. Meanwhile, the Red Wings scoring woes have been well-documented. They average just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a division game over the last two seasons. On a positive note for Detroit, Nashville averages just 2.1 goals per game after winning three of its last four games over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils are coming off six consecutive 'under' results but it's worth noting that five of those games were played at home (where they've been involved in mostly low-scoring affairs this season) and the lone road game came in Pittsburgh against a Penguins team that has been involved in a string of low-scoring games lately. We've seen quite a contrast in the Devils results at home compared to on the road. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home this season while giving up 3.0 goals per contest on a whopping 35.6 shots on goal per game. The 'over' has cashed at an 8-4 clip when New Jersey plays on the road compared to a 4-13 o/u mark on home ice. We won with the 'under' in the Flyers overtime loss here at home against the Islanders last night, snapping Philadelphia's streak of seven straight 'over' results. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when the Flyers come off two straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 8.3 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 when Philadelphia checks in having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons with that situation producing 8.4 total goals on average. After being held to just six goals in a three-game set with the Penguins, the Devils should be excited at the prospect of facing a Flyers squad that has given up at least four goals in six of their last eight games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I don't generally play a lot of Flyers 'unders' (for obvious reasons), I do like the way the spot sets up on Monday night. The Isles have of course shown a strong home-road dichotomy when it comes to totals this season. The 'under' has gone 14-2 in their 16 road games to date, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 when the Isles play on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers have posted a 1-8 o/u mark when at home revenging a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-3 when the Flyers play on home ice after three consecutive games that saw at least seven goals scored, as is the case here. That situation has totaled an average of 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup on Friday night as the Knights skated to a 4-2 win to send it 'over' the total. I'll make the same play again on Sunday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 24-12 when the Kings play at home after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons. The Knights are giving up just 2.1 goals per game following an 'over' result this season. The 'under' is a solid 56-36 when they play for the fourth time in the last seven days over the last three seasons as well. With the 'over' having cashed in three straight meetings, we're seeing the total shaded to the over again here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We've somewhat surprisingly seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season but I look for a return to 'normal' on Friday night as Vegas puts its four-game winning streak on the line in Los Angeles. Note that Vegas is giving up just 1.5 goals per game when going on the road off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-2 clip in that situation. The Knights are of course coming off consecutive one-goal wins over the Sharks earlier this week (we won with San Jose on the puck-line in both of those games). Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 3.6 goals. The Kings posted a 4-1 victory over the reeling Blues two nights ago after that game was postponed on Monday with L.A. stuck in Denver due to a snowstorm. The Knights are allowing just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season but the Kings have been no slouches at home either, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. They haven't given up more than three goals in a game here at Staples Center since back on February 9th against San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Detroit's most recent game - a 4-2 victory over Carolina on Tuesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Wings host the Stars on Thursday night. Dallas suffered a 4-3 shootout loss against Tampa Bay two nights ago as it continues to struggle to post consecutive victories. Now the Stars head back on the road where they average just 2.4 goals per game this season. While the Red Wings are coming off a four-goal outburst on Tuesday, their offensive struggles have been well-documented. Note that they've posted an 0-6 o/u record when revenging a loss where they gave up 5+ goals this season, averaging just 1.3 goals per game in that situation. The 'under' is also 9-2 when the Wings come off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.1 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes will undoubtedly be in a foul mood on Thursday night after dropping a 4-2 decision against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday. That game saw three power play goals scored in the first 13 minutes but only three more were scored the rest of the way including a Wings empty net goal. I look for a strong bounce-back performance from the Canes here at home against the Blue Jackets, who average just 2.1 goals per game on the road this season. Columbus is also looking to bounce back after suffering a 2-1 shootout loss against the Stars on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 when the Blue Jackets come off a one-goal loss in their last game over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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