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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UABÂ OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 228 | 124-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 229.5 | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but neither of those games necessarily saw the pace to warrant those outcomes. Last night, both the Knicks and Heat shot the lights out in New York's 127-120 loss in Miami. New York will have a difficult time reproducing that performance here, noting that it averages 'only' 110.7 points per game when playing the second of back-to-back nights over the last two seasons (those 22 contests have totalled an average of 217.9 points). After getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of four games from March 5th to 11th, the Knicks have hoisted up 88 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five contests. The Magic were involved in a relatively high-scoring game against the struggling Wizards two nights ago. Neither team got off more than 83 FG attempts in that one. Orlando has been limited to 86 or fewer FG attempts in three of its last four contests. To say that the Magic have struggled offensively against the Knicks going back to the start of last season would be an understatement. They've knocked down just 37, 36, 30 and 39 field goals in the last four meetings, topping out at 104 points in those games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 218 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Flames v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams check into this key division matchup off a loss and in the case of the Flames it was a wild one as they fell by a 6-5 score in overtime on home ice against the Stars on Saturday. The Kings dropped an extra time decision at home as well, in a shootout at the hands of the Canucks. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 152-112 with the Kings playing at home off a home loss. While the 'over' is still 36-26-8 in all Kings games this season, we have seen signs of them reverting back to 'normal' (I use that term as they've generally been a solid 'under' bet in recent years) lately with the 'over' cashing in just two of their last eight contests. The Flames have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games. Only once this season have more than three consecutive games involving Calgary go 'over' the total with that five-game streak coming back in December. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flames playing on the road off an overtime loss over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with Calgary playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that spot. The last two meetings between the Flames and Kings have gone 'over' the total and that's notable as we haven't seen three straight matchups in this series go 'over' since way back in 2007-08 when four consecutive matchups surpassed the total. The term playoff-like atmosphere generally lends itself to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring hockey and I do think it applies here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL v. Indiana OVER 145 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Predators v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Nashville and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were stymied by a scoreless third period between the Rangers and Penguins last night - New York's fourth 'under' result in its last five games. Keep in mind, prior to last night's shutout, the Blueshirts had allowed at least two goals in 18 of their previous 19 games. In this back-to-back spot there's obviously a good chance we see backup goaltender Jaro Halak between the pipes on Sunday. The same goes for Predators in goal after Juuse Saros turned in a terrific performance but it wasn't enough in yesterday's 3-2 overtime loss to the Jets. The Preds are reeling right now and perhaps a change of scenery will do them some good. It's worth noting that they haven't suffered any drop-off in offensive production on the road, averaging 2.9 goals per game - identical to their overall scoring average. Meanwhile, the Rangers give up 2.8 goals per game on the campaign but that average bumps up to 3.0 when coming off three or more cosnecutive wins this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Preds playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the first two games of their current road trip stay 'under' the total but I look for a reversal of that trend on Saturday as they stop in Washington to face the Wizards, who find themselves in a back-to-back spot off last night's blowout loss in Cleveland. The Wizards were a virtual no-show last night, knocking down only 35-of-76 field goal attempts in the 23-point loss. Washington's defense has regressed considerably lately as it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in five of its last six games. Sacramento has inexplicably shot poorly over its last two games but I do expect it to 'get right' here. Note that while Washington put forth an abysmal offensive effort against an elite Cleveland defense last night, it has knocked down 46, 47, 43 and 44 field goals over its last four home games. Take the over (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Nashville at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. With both of these teams coming off poor offensive showings last time out (Winnipeg was shut out by Boston and Nashville scored just one goal in a loss to Chicago) I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Also helping our cause in terms of keeping this total low is the fact that the last two meetings in this series finished with just three goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Predators coming off consecutive games that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 65-44 with the Jets coming off a home loss by two goals or more, which is also the situation in this spot. While the 'under' has gone 20-11-3 with the Jets playing on the road this season, their games have averaged 6.0 total goals away from home. Take the over (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-23 | 76ers v. Hornets OVER 226 | 121-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Hornets have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games - not surprising given they've been a mess defensively since losing key space-eater Mark Williams to a thumb injury. Note that Charlotte has allowed its last three opponents to make good on 46, 41 and 45 field goals. That includes a pair of games against the slow-paced Cavaliers, who got up only 80 and 76 field goal attempts. The 76ers play a similarly slow pace but figure to take advantage just the same. Philadelphia had its streak of seven straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals snapped last time out against the aforementioned Cavs but it still scored 118 points. For whatever reason, the Hornets offense has given the 76ers defense fits going back to the start of last season, making good on 48, 39, 46, 42, 44 and 38 field goals in six meetings with a low-water mark of 106 points in terms of scoring. Charlotte enters this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight games after being held under that number in four of its previous five contests. The return of Kelly Oubre has certainly given it a boost, rounding out a capable scoring trio that also includes Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns OVER 228 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are in desperate need of a 'get-right' performance offensively and I think they get it on Thursday against the Magic. With that being said, Orlando checks in off an off day on Wednesday following a disappointing loss in San Antonio on Tuesday. The Magic offense has been on point during a 6-1 'over' run, scoring 114 points in all seven games and I do expect it to give the Suns defense some trouble here. The problem for Orlando is that its own defense has been non-existent lately. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse at that end of the floor as it has allowed 46, 49, 42 and 48 made field goals over its last four games. Prior to that stretch, there were also three games where the Magic allowed 48 or more made field goals from February 14th to March 1st. The opportunities have certainly been there for the Suns as they've hoisted up 94 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has faded a little defensively, yielding 40 or more made field goals in three straight games despite holding all three of those opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2016-17. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Kings v. Nets OVER 237.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The 'pop-gun' Bulls offense struck again last night as we just missed with the 'over' in the Kings 117-114 win in Chicago. The fact that the game even got to 231 total points was encouraging given the Kings got off just 78 field goal attempts while the Bulls knocked down only 38-of-97 from the field. Here, I'm expecting both teams to take part in a track meet in Brooklyn. The Nets certainly looked road-weary two nights ago as they wrapped up a five-game in eight-night trip in Oklahoma City. Brooklyn clearly ran out of gas late in that game, unable to make a double-digit halftime lead stand up. I do think we see the Nets bounce right back offensively following an off day on Wednesday. Prior to Tuesday's game, Brooklyn had made good on 40 or more field goals in four straight games. Defensively, the Nets have been matador-like, however, allowing 44, 48, 45 and 45 made field goals over their last four games and more than 40 in nine of their last 11 contests. Each of their last four opponents has gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were just involved in a relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Pittsburgh with the Penguins prevailing by a 3-2 score in overtime. That was the second 3-2 result in as many matchups between the two squads this season. Yet here we are working with a total of 6.5 again in Thursday's rematch. That has something to do with the fact that both teams were involved in high-scoring games two nights ago. Pittsburgh dropped an ugly 6-4 decision at home against the Canadiens while the Rangers skated to a 5-3 home win over the Capitals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Pens playing on the road after allowing six or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted an 11-22 o/u mark when playing at home after a home victory in which they scored four goals or more over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Furman v. Virginia UNDER 132 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Furman and Virginia at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. While anything can obviously happen, I believe there's a good chance this game ends up being akin to watching paint dry, yet here we are being offered a total in the 130's. Furman does play at a reasonably fast pace, ranked 124th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Of course, the Paladins haven't had to play all that methodically having faced the 271st most difficult schedule in the nation. The open looks have been there for the most part throughout the campaign and Furman has taken full advantage. Here, however, they'll be taking a big step up in class against one of the best defensive teams in the nation in Virginia. If Furman is to have any shot at pulling the upset here (as many seem to feel it can), it will need to use its excellent ball movement and patience at the offensive end of the floor to break down the Cavaliers. On the flip side, few teams have been able to speed up Virginia this season, and Furman doesn't figure to be able to (or have any interest in) doing so on Thursday. The Cavaliers rank 360th out of 363 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season not to mention 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. We certainly saw them lock in during the ACC Tournament, holding all three of their opponents to exactly 19 made field goals. Only one of their last 10 opponents has managed to get off more than 53 field goal attempts and that was Clemson in a game that totalled only 121 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers OVER 234 | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This may look like a lofty total given these two teams just met less than two weeks ago and combined to score only 206 total points. I believe it's warranted, however. The pace and scoring opportunities should be there in this one, noting that the Warriors have employed a 'swinging-gate' defense lately, allowing five straight opponents to get off at least 93 field goal attempts, with all five of those foes knocking down at least 42 (one was aided by overtime). Interestingly, the Clippers have also been affording their opponents plenty of opportunities, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The only occasion where they didn't we still saw a whopping total of 255 points scored in a matchup with Sacramento. With both teams rested and looking ahead to another day off tomorrow, I don't expect either side to leave anything on the table here. As a final note, the Clippers have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. That's worth mentioning as they haven't posted three straight 'under' results since January 8th to 15th, when they went on a 4-0 'under' run. Take the over (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 6 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.
We got the result we wanted in last night's Islanders game as they fell in a relatively high-scoring affair (5-2 final score) in Los Angeles. That has afforded us a loftier total here as the Islanders look to bounce back from consecutive losses as they take on the lowly Ducks in Anaheim. Note that Anaheim does check in playing better hockey lately, holding seven of its last nine opponents to three goals or less during a 5-4 run. The Ducks are still averaging only 2.6 goals per game on home ice and don't figure to have an easy time of it in this matchup noting they've found the back of the net only four times in the last three meetings in this series. You would have to go back eight matchups between these two teams in Anaheim to find the last time they combined to score more than five goals. With the Isles offense sputtering, having scored more than three goals just four times in their last 11 games and averaging only 2.9 goals per game on the road this season, I expect that streak to remain intact on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 6 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. While the Wild have scored a whopping 13 goals in the first three games of their current four-game road trip, they can't be trusted to produce at that level for an extended stretch, especially with Kirill Kaprizov sidelined. Note that they're just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight straight games. Meanwhile, the Blues have scored 12 goals over their last three contests but are also just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight of their previous nine games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests but we haven't seen three straight Blues games go 'over' the total since mid-January. Keeping in mind, the most recent matchup between these two teams totalled only three goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada OVER 133.5 | Top | 98-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls OVER 238.5 | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled only 211 points and that's helping to keep the number in check in Wednesday's rematch in Chicago. Both of these teams come in red hot offensively. The Kings have made good on 43 or more field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 40+ in all 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, the Bulls have been heating up, knocking down 45, 46 and 44 field goals over their last three games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all three contests. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Bucks on Monday and that's notable as they've scored 140, 133, 133 and 134 points in their last four games following a loss. The Bulls average 113.2 points per game this season but that scoring average bumps up to 115.0 points per game when coming off a win, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 107-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Canadiens v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Canadiens were involved in a wild 8-4 loss at the hands of the Avalanche last night. Everything was going in for Colorado in that contest as it scored three goals on its first six shots alone and was ahead 4-1 at the end of the first period. Keep in mind, the Canadiens had been keeping reasonably under control prior to that contest, having not allowed more than four goals in a game since February 25th against Ottawa. I do expect the Habs to respond with a better defensive performance here. Pittsburgh is coming off consecutive 'under' results, not to mention back-to-back victories at home against the Flyers and Rangers. The Pens are in a bit of a tricky spot here, coming off that big 3-2 overtime win over New York before heading out for consecutive games against the same Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Pittsburgh playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Pens playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'over' did cash in the most recent meeting in this series - a 5-4 Habs win on home ice back in November but we've seen only one 'over' streak in this matchup going back to the start of the 2018-19 campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 237.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-23 | Avalanche v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're being afforded another 6.5 after cashing the 'under' in Colorado's most recent game - a 3-2 overtime win over the Coyotes on Saturday. The Avs, while known for their offensive prowess, have now posted six 'under' streaks (of two or more games) since the start of January, posting an 11-17-1 o/u mark over that stretch. The Habs showed a spark in February but have since gone back in the tank, losing six straight games while being held to three goals or less in all six contests. They could muster only a single goal in Saturday's home loss to the Devils. Montreal has now dipped below the 3.0 goals per game mark at home this season while Colorado checks in allowing just 2.8 goals per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 118-86 with the Avs coming off an overtime win while the 'under' is 31-17 with the Habs seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 5.6 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-13-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 228 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with this same play on Saturday as the two teams got off to a red hot start and that was enough to ultimately push the final score 'over' the total by a little more than a handful of points. The injury situation has only gotten worse for both squads since then with Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley going down in that contest as well. Keep in mind, the Pacers are already missing the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Benedict Mathurin among others. Detroit is without Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic. Credit the subs for stepping up and filling the void on Saturday but I'm willing to bet they don't do it again here. Note that the Pistons will play again tomorrow night in Washington so they likely have an interest in shortening proceedings as much as possible on Monday, given the limited number of bodies they have on hand. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series which is worth noting as we haven't seen four consecutive 'over' results in this matchup since way back in 2013-14. Take the under (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators have now allowed a whopping 14 goals in the first three games of their current road trip, losing two of those three contests. I do look for them to settle things down on Sunday as they face the fading Flames in Calgary. It was another disappointing result for the Flames on Friday as they fell by a 3-1 score at home against the lowly Ducks. Scoring has become a major problem for Calgary as it has tallied one goal or less in four of its last five contests. The Senators took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-3 score in Ottawa back in February. That's notable as the 'under' is 14-5 with Calgary seeking revenge for a loss where the opposition scored at least four goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.4 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 140.5 | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday. It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 229 | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. This was already going to be an ugly Saturday night matchup in the Motor City but with super rookies Benedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey sidelined it sets up that much worse. The Pacers are coming off a wild overtime win over the Rockets two nights ago. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last three games, helping to keep tonight's posted total in a lofty range. The Pistons have struggled to score lately (by today's NBA standards at least), putting up fewer than 110 points in all but two of their last nine contests. While the defense-optional Pacers would appear to offer a reprieve, the Pistons are simply missing too many key contributors to be counted on for an offensive explosion here. Indiana has its own absences to deal with. Mathurin has already been ruled out while Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are all nursing injuries and currently listed as questionable to play. Even if all three are able to go, there's no guarantee they'll see their usual workload, especially if the game is well in control. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avalanche are coming off an awful defensive showing in a 5-2 home loss against the red hot Kings on Thursday. A visit from the lowly Coyotes should give them an opportunity to get back on track in that regard on Saturday, noting that Arizona, while coming off back-to-back wins (both at home), has averaged just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Since scoring four goals or more in four straight games from February 18th to the 25th, the Avalanche have reached that number only twice in their last six contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is an incredible 12-1 with Colorado coming off a home loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 157.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday. Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale OVER 149 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday. These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 154.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*). |
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03-10-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 137.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 235.5 | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're seeing a considerable adjustment to the total in this game since the most recent meeting between these two teams on January 25th. That game totalled 242 points, staying just 'under' the closing total of 245.5. We're working with a total around 10 points lower (at the time of writing) for this rematch, largely due to the absence of Ja Morant for the Grizzlies. I don't believe that big of a shift is warranted. To say the Warriors have been a bad defensive team away from home this season would be an understatement. They've allowed a whopping 123.6 points per game on north of 49% shooting. You would have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals on the road and even further to December 16th to spot the last time they limited a foe to fewer than 40. Defensive warts aside, Golden State should be 'feeling it' offensively in this one after knocking down 47-of-89 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 137-128 loss in Oklahoma City. After holding four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals, the Grizzlies have now yielded 40, 45 and 41 made field goals over their last three contests. Offensively, it doesn't get much worse than Memphis' 36-of-93 shooting performance against the Lakers last time out. Keep in mind, the Grizzlies are just one game removed from a 50-of-92 shooting effort against the Clippers. The short line says a lot here as despite the short-handed nature of the Grizzlies, a competitive affair should be in order. That lends itself to a high-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Tulsa v. Wichita State OVER 139 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday. Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Pittsburgh v. Duke UNDER 142 | 69-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Duke at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. While Pittsburgh is coming off a wild 89-81 win over Georgia Tech yesterday I think it knows that it is unlikely to enjoy similar success by employing that same style of play against Duke on Thursday. Case in point, the first regular season matchup between these two teams as the Panthers got off to a red hot start but ultimately gave the Blue Devils far too many scoring opportunities (66 field goal attempts) and paid the price in a 77-69 road loss in January. While Pitt has regularly gotten into the 70's, 80's and even 90's in terms of scoring this season, it's worth noting that it has only faced the 102nd most difficult schedule in the country - a relatively low rating for a team from a major conference. Here, it will be facing a Duke squad that checks in 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 292nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). The Blue Devils have faced the nation's 72nd toughest slate of opponents. Another team with loftier goals beginning next week, but also with its sights firmly set on an ACC Tournament title, I'm not convinced we see Duke come out with a peak offensive performance in its opener in Greensboro. Both teams should have an interest in effectively shortening proceedings here, albeit for different reasons, and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 234 | 101-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Thunder have posted a 6-0-1 o/u mark over their last seven games but I look for that run to come to an end on Wednesday as they face the Suns in a difficult back-to-back spot. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as Phoenix right now. The Suns have held nine of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder are playing well, winners of three games in a row while scoring 130, 129 and 137 points over that stretch, the fact that they're in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation on the road has to be factored in (their last three wins came at home). The last time we saw Oklahoma City on the road it was held to 41-of-94 shooting right here in Phoenix (also in a back-to-back spot). That previous meeting did end up totalling 239 points, however, helping keep this total in a lofty region. I mentioned the Thunder's red hot offense but their defense has stepped up to a certain extent as well, limiting six straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The addition of Kevin Durant hasn't necessarily served to speed up the Suns offense, noting that they're hoisted up 89, 84 and 89 FG attempts in his first three games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-23 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be shying away at the prospect of backing the 'over' at a lofty 3.5 goals in the second leg of this Champions League matchup between PSG and Bayern Munich on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg produced just one goal - that coming from Bayern Munich in stunning fashion. I'm anticipating more offensive fireworks this time around, however, noting that the German side will be without both Benjamin Pavard (suspension) and Lucas Hernandez (injury) on its back-line, not to mention Manuel Neuer between the sticks. It's worth noting that Neuer's replacement, Yann Sommer, has rated out poorly in each of his last three matches in Bundesliga action. Speaking of rating poorly, PSG keeper Gianluigi Donnaruma posted two exceptionally poor ratings in recent matches against Lille and Nantes in Ligue 1 action. We know both of these sides are clinical in their attack and I like the fact that PSG will need to be on its front foot down a goal by aggregate here. There's no reason to think we see the French side sit back in hostile territory on Wednesday and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. While laying the juice to play the 'over' at 3.0 is tempting here, I believe we're well-suited to take it on at 3.5 with a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-23 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 153 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday. This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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03-07-23 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 232.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-23 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 147.5 | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-23 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 143.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
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03-04-23 | Iowa State v. Baylor UNDER 136.5 | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season did sail 'over' the total but we're working with a higher number this time around and I believe it will prove too high. Iowa State made the most of its opportunities given its limitations offensively but still scored 'only' 69 points in its fourth straight loss, this one coming at the hands of West Virginia on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to February 4th to find the last time the Cyclones made good on more than 24 field goals in a game. They do continue to hold up well defensively, however, limiting six of their last nine opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. They'll undoubtedly be looking to 'ugly it up' in this difficult road game against Baylor as well. Baylor has topped out at 26 made field goals over its last six games. The Bears aren't exactly pushing the pace, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in seven straight games entering Saturday's contest. After allowing Texas and Oklahoma State to each get off 60 or more FG attempts in their last two games, I look for the Bears to clamp down on the Cyclones offense in this revenge spot. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-23 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Bulls are on an incredible 'under' run right now (even though their most recent game did find its way 'over' the total in Detroit). I do think the total has been adjusted too low in this particular matchup, however, noting that Chicago figures to have its hands full with the new-look Suns offense. Phoenix didn't need to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters two nights ago in Charlotte (in Kevin Durant's team debut). I suspect they'll have to on Friday though. Note that the Suns have been pushing the pace more than usual lately, hoisting up 88 or more field goal attempts in six straight games. The Bulls play at a slow tempo but have been making the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 40 or more field goals in three of their last four games. This has been a high-scoring series with each of the last three meetings eclipsing the 230 point mark. Take the over (8*). |
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03-01-23 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 232 | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Warriors last night. While this is a difficult back-to-back spot for Portland, I do think the game is well-positioned to fly 'over' the total. New Orleans last took the floor on Monday, suffering an embarrassing 101-93 home loss against the Magic. That was arguably the Pelicans worst offensive showing in over a month. I'm confident they bounce back here, noting that the Blazers are a mess defensively, having allowed 45 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, each of their last 21 opponents have knocked down more than 40 field goals. You have to figure Portland goes off offensively as well in this spot, noting that the Pelicans rarely play a lick of defense on the road, allowing 117.2 points per game on 48% shooting. These two teams last met in November and that contest totalled only 201 points. Both teams shot poorly on that night and the game was played at a snail's pace. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-01-23 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne OVER 148.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 235.5 | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Florida v. Georgia OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-26-23 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 234 | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter this contest off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday evening in San Francisco. The Timberwolves continued to struggle defensively in Friday's 121-113 home loss to the Hornets, allowing Charlotte to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 43 or more made field goals in six straight games and has shown little interest (or ability) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The story for the Warriors has been more about who has been missing from the lineup than who has been in it lately but Klay Thompson did manage to lift the team to a 116-101 win over the Rockets on Friday, pouring in 42 points. That game snapped a streak of eight straight contests in which Golden State had made good on at least 40 field goals. That had a lot to do with the fact that the Warriors didn't need to go full throttle after building a 66-49 halftime lead. Like the T'Wolves, the Warriors have done little to slow the opposition lately, allowing 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last 12 contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 29-10 with Minnesota coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 251-202 with the Warriors playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-23 | Siena v. Iona UNDER 139.5 | 60-93 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Siena and Iona at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got precisely the results we wanted from both of these teams on Friday to set up this play on Sunday afternoon. Siena held a fifth straight opponent to fewer than 70 points but fell by a 69-66 score at Rider, eclipsing the total by a bucket. Iona, meanwhile, routed Mount St. Mary's by an 80-68 score, easily shooting north of the total. While the Gaels have become known for their high-powered offense over the years, it's been a bit of a different story this season. They've leaned heavily on their defense, which has arguably been the best in the MAAC. Iona enters Sunday's contest having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Gaels got off more than 60 field goal attempts - a stark contrast to the pace we've seen from them in recent years. Siena doesn't figure likely to push the tempo here, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goals in any of its last nine contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Saints knocked down more than 23 field goals themselves. Siena ranks a respectable 138th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and hasn't allowed 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since New Year's Day and that contest against Fairfield still totalled only 131 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 138.5 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-23 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting with the Penguins coming off a 7-2 beatdown at the hands of the Oilers and the Blues having blown a 2-0 third period lead in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Canucks on Thursday. Blues head coach Craig Berube called out his team following that latest setback - St. Louis' fourth straight loss. Pittsburgh checks in on a four-game losing streak as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Penguins playing on the road after allowing six goals or more in their previous game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Blues playing at home off a one-goal loss at home over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. Pittsburgh skated past St. Louis by a 6-2 score in the two teams' lone previous meeting this season. That was played in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins have been a considerably stronger offensive team, back in early December. The last time we saw these teams match up in St. Louis, only five total goals were scored in a one-goal Pens victory last March. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-23 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 152.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 232.5 | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Fairfield v. Niagara OVER 124.5 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday. We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Washington State v. Stanford UNDER 135 | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-23 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 155 | 74-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and N.C. State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not convinced the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack renew acquaintances on Wednesday night in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 156 points back on January 28th. The pace was certainly there on that night as we saw a whopping 129 field goal attempts. The Wolfpack did their part, knocking down 32-of-69 shots from the field but the Demon Deacons had an off night shooting the basketball, connecting on only 26-of-60 field goal attempts. You could say that N.C. State has been fortunate that its last few opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. The Wolfpack have allowed 61, 62 and 62 FG attempts over that stretch but none of those three foes managed to knock down more than 27. Wake Forest figures to test N.C. State in that regard here as the revenge-minded Demon Deacons have made good on 28 or more field goals in eight of their last 13 contests. On the flip side, Wake Forest leaves a lot to be desired defensively, having allowed its last seven opponents to knock down 28, 32, 27, 27, 30, 27 and 37 field goals. Meanwhile, N.C. State is locked-in offensively right now, pushing the pace and making the most of its scoring opportunities having connected on 37, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games since an embarrassing 19-of-57 shooting effort against one of the best defensive teams in the country, Virginia, back on February 7th. All told, the Wolfpack have made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall. The Demon Deacons have shown little interest (or ability) to slow down their opponents, allowing 60 or more FG attempts in seven of their last nine games and 63 or more in four straight contests. This game is a matchup of two teams that both rank inside the top-75 in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Take the over (8*). |
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02-21-23 | Youngstown State v. Robert Morris OVER 144 | 64-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*). |
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02-20-23 | Hawaii v. CS Bakersfield OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday. Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | Rider v. Quinnipiac OVER 140 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and N.C. State at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 'only' 149 points in their first matchup this season. Interestingly, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in that game despite knocking down only 20-of-54 field goal attempts. The difference proved to be their ridiculous 36-of-39 performance from the free throw line. They were certainly fortunate that the Wolfpack couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities in that game as N.C. State did get off 62 field goal attempts (connecting on only 26 of them). I would certainly anticipate a sharper offensive performance from the Wolfpack in this home rematch, noting that they enter on a serious tear having made good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six contests. North Carolina has done a good job of keeping its opponents' pace down lately, but has still allowed 24 or more made field goals in eight straight games. Meanwhile, N.C. State has been fortunate that its last two opponents, Boston College and Syracuse, have had off nights shooting the basketball as those two foes hoisted up 61 and 62 FG attempts, respectively. North Carolina figures to be able to take advantage of that potential high shot volume, noting that it has knocked down 30, 32 and 29 field goals over its last three contests. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Red Wings v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have scored a whopping 16 goals in their first three games on their current road trip. I don't expect them to have an easy time scoring as their western road swing continues in Seattle on Saturday, however. The Kraken have held eight of their last 11 opponents to three goals or less. Seattle has scored 12 goals over its last three contests but will be up against a Red Wings squad that has allowed three goals or less in nine of its last 11 games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-21 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Kraken coming off a game that totalled eight goals or more this season, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Baylor v. Kansas OVER 148.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-18-23 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 141.5 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off poor offensive showings last time out but I see this as an ideal 'get-right' spot in that regard for both on Saturday. Boston College once again got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts (for the third time in its last four games) but could only make good on 21 of those attempts against a terrific Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. The Eagles have still connected on 26 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and should benefit from facing a Florida State team that ranks 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Seminoles have apparently thrown defense out the window during a miserable 1-6 slide, allowing all seven of those opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Florida State is favored for a reason here, however. Boston College has also struggled defensively of late, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts and six of its last seven foes to make good on at least 26 field goals. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season so it's a little tougher for the oddsmakers to gauge where exactly the total should be set. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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02-17-23 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in each of the Stars last nine games and seven of the Wild's last eight games overall, we're starting to see adjustments from the oddsmakers with a 5.5 popping up for the third time in Dallas' last four games and for the first time in the last four games for Minnesota (the last time it did the Wild produced their most recent 'over' result). We'll go the contrarian route here as I feel this game is well-positioned to be higher-scoring than expected. Note that the Stars are operating with a small margin for error defensively right now, having allowed 34, 39, 31 and 37 shots on goal over their last four contests. The Wild had allowed 30 or more shots on goal in seven of their last eight games before holding Colorado to only 19 on Wednesday. In that contest, Minnesota flipped the script, firing 43 shots on goal but quite simply ran into a hot goaltender. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Stars coming off five or six loses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Wild playing at home off a one-goal defeat against a division opponent, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 8.6 goals in that spot. While both teams boast hot goaltenders, I don't mind the matchup here. Stars starting netminder Jake Oettinger is having a terrific season but the Wild managed to score five goals against him just two months ago. Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson has arguably been better than supposed number-one Marc-Andre Fleury this season but the last time the Stars saw him between the pipes they scored three goals against him (before adding an empty-netter) earlier this month. Fleury has posted a less-than-impressive .881 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 130.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Flyers v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We got the result we wanted in this same matchup on Sunday afternoon as the two teams combined to score seven goals in a Kraken road victory. I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Seattle for Thursday's rematch. Note that Kraken home games have been considerably lower-scoring than their road affairs. While their road tilts have averaged north of 7.0 goals per contest, their home games have produced an average total of only 6.0 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 16-9-1 clip. Goals haven't been easy to come by for the Flyers over the last month or so. Going back to January 19th they've scored four goals in a game only once (in a game that totalled just four goals), three goals three times and two goals or less on six occasions. It's a similar story for Seattle. It has produced four goals or more three times since January 16th, three goals twice and two goals or less in seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flyers playing on the road off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-2 with the Kraken coming off a one-goal loss this season, which is the case here, producing an average total of 5.6 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Hurricanes v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. UPDATE: Alex Ovechkin has been ruled OUT for the Capitals. While that obviously makes me a little less confident in the play, I still like the price and the situation. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a relatively low-scoring affair as the Hurricanes skated to a 3-2 home victory on Halloween Night. It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive matchups between the Canes and Capitals stay 'under' the total since a playoff series back in 2019. Here, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Both teams are coming off poor showings offensively. The Canes dropped a 6-2 decision on home ice against the Rangers on Saturday while the Capitals fell by a 4-1 score at home against the Sharks on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with Carolina coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 34-18 with Washington seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 157 | 71-89 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met on January 31st in a game that totalled 159 points. It's worth noting that both teams shot the lights out in that game with Miami-Ohio connecting on 31-of-58 field goal attempts and Toledo knocking down 33-of-64. It was a similar story in the Redhawks and Rockets previous matchup last February in Toledo as Miami-Ohio made good on a ridiculous 14 three-pointers (it averages six made threes per game on the road this season) while the Rockets knocked down 35-of-65 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that while Toledo does play fast, it doesn't play any faster at home compared to on the road and I do think Miami-Ohio can at least slow the Rockets down to a certain extent, noting that the Redhawks have limited opponents to just 55 FG attempts per contest on the road this season and check in having impressively limited their foes to fewer than 60 FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 games overall. While Miami-Ohio doesn't rate out well defensively this season according to KenPom, it has played better lately, holding 10 of its last 13 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and four of its last six to 26 or less. Offensively, the Redhawks are once again sputtering, having made good on 24, 24, 31, 22, 26 and 20 field goals over their last six contests. The lone outlier over that stretch came against Toledo but we've seen the Rockets right the ship defensively since, yielding just 20, 27 and 26 made field goals over their last three games, despite allowing 65 or more FG attempts in two of those three contests. After knocking down 30 or more field goals in four of five games from January 17th to 31st, Toledo has made good on just 28, 26 and 24 field goals over its last three games. While you would have to go back three meetings to find the last 'under' result in this series, we haven't seen three straight meetings go 'over' the total (or push) since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). |
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02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 232.5 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Warriors offense here after they failed to make the most of their wealth of scoring opportunities in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers on Saturday. Here, they're in a prime bounce-back spot against a Wizards squad that has allowed 42 or more made field goals in eight of their last 10 games (the only two occasions where they didn't over that stretch came against struggling offenses in the Pelicans and Hornets - both of those teams managed to get off 92+ field goal attempts). Note also that five of the Wizards last eight opponents have hoisted up at least 92 field goal attempts so they've shown no ability, or interest, in slowing the pace. Prior to Saturday's game, the Warriors had made good on 43, 45, 56 and 46 field goals over their last four contests. They've gotten off at least 90 FG attempts in six of their last eight games overall and figure to stay aggressive here off consecutive losses. Defensively, the Warriors have left a lot to be desired. They check in having allowed at least 40 made field goals in an incredible 19 of their last 20 games. They're just one game removed from allowing Portland to shoot north of 55% from the field. The last time these two teams met we saw 245 total points in a Warriors road victory in mid-January. We're actually working with a lower posted total this time around and that has a lot to do with who isn't playing for the Warriors right now (Steph Curry is sidelined until after the All-Star break and Andrew Wiggins is questionable to play due to an ankle injury). Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Kansas City and Philadelphia at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the first half 'under' in last year's Super Bowl and while the match up is of course much different this time around, featuring the high-profile offenses of the Chiefs and Eagles, I actually believe that serves to provide us value with the 'under' once again. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 in the first half in the Chiefs last 34 games following a bye week, with that situation producing an average total of just 20.6 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-10 in the first half in the Eagles last 35 games after a bye week, leading to an average total of only 20.2 points in that spot. Simply by nature of today's NFL, I don't think either of these defenses are getting enough attention or respect. Most of the talk in the two weeks leading up to this game surrounds Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, perhaps rightfully so. However, the two defenses have proven their worth time and time again this season and certainly in the playoffs. In fact, the Chiefs enter this game having given up a grand total of just 19 first half points in their last three games. The Eagles have been even better in that respect, allowing only seven first half points in their last three contests. Take the first half under (8*). |
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02-12-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius OVER 144.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Quinnipiac and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 169 points and while we're working with a slightly higher posted total in this rematch, I believe it will still prove too low. Quinnipiac has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in six of its last seven games overall and it should be able to make the most of those scoring opportunities here noting that Canisius' opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 33, 30, 25, 26 and 33 field goals over its last six contests. The Golden Griffins are coming off a poor offensive showing in a blowout loss to Iona on Friday as they knocked down only 20-of-53 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had gotten off more than 60 FG attempts in four straight games, making good on 25 or more field goals in all four of those contests. Quinnipiac has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests - the only opponent it held down over that stretch was Fairfield, one of, if not the worst offensive team in the MAAC. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 235.5 | 119-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet as the Nuggets lick their wounds following a loss in Orlando two nights ago and head to Charlotte, where they'll face a reeling Hornets squad on the second of back-to-backs. The Hornets have lost six straight games, with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. We've certainly seen signs of life from Charlotte offensively, however, noting that it has knocked down exactly 45 field goals in two of its last three games. The Hornets are certainly pushing the pace, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. I'm confident we'll see them find offensive success here, noting that the Nuggets have allowed 40 or more made field goals in seven straight games and 47+ in two of their last three contests. Offensively, Denver has been inconsistent, largely due to key contributors in and out of the lineup due to 'load management' and otherwise. Here, we find the Nuggets coming off an off day and well-positioned to feast against a non-existent Hornets defense that has allowed seven consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Just last night, the Hornets held the Celtics to 89 field goal attempts but still allowed a whopping 127 points. In fact, Charlotte has given up 114 or more points in seven straight games. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached 'only' 234 total points but that was a situation where Denver was able to 'manage' the game as a -9-point home favorite. Here, I expect the Nuggets to be far more aggressive from the opening tip to the final buzzer in what sets up as a high-scoring affair in Charlotte. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-23 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Rangers high-scoring victory over the Kraken last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. New York has now seen a season-high three straight games go 'over' the total, which is affording us a fairly generous total on Saturday in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is 21-10 with the Rangers playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in a home victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes will be playing for the first time in 10 days following an extended All-Star break. The 'under' is 29-17 with the Canes playing on home ice off a win over the last two seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. Finally, we'll note that the Rangers give up just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes have held the opposition to 2.7 goals per contest at home. Expect goals to come at a premium on Saturday night in Raleigh. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-23 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 241.5 | Top | 138-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen consecutive Rangers home games go easily 'over' the total since the All-Star break, with New York securing one-goal victories over Calgary and Vancouver earlier this week. Here, I think we're well-positioned for a lower-scoring affair as the Blueshirts host the struggling Kraken. New York has scored nine goals (eight in regulation time) in its last two contests but I'm not sure that type of offensive production is sustainable, noting that it is still averaging just 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Save for a six-goal outburst against the Canucks on January 25th, Seattle has had a tough time finding the back of the net lately, held to three goals or less in seven of its last nine games and two goals or less in six of those contests. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot given the Kraken have scored just six goals in three all-time meetings with the Rangers. In fact, all three previous matchups between these non-conference foes have produced five total goals or fewer including a 3-2 Kraken victory on home ice earlier this season. Note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 23-12 with New York playing at home after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals in that situation. Finally, the 'under' has cashed all five times the Rangers have come off consecutive 'over' results this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday. Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers OVER 239 | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. This total is on the rise, and for good reason. The Lakers made a big splash in a three-way trade with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves last night although their reinforcements aren't expected to suit up until Saturday against Golden State. For Thursday, the absence of Russell Westbrook (he's off to Utah) leaves the Lakers in a tougher spot defensively than offensively in my opinion. Westbrook is actually quietly having one of his best defensive seasons even if his offensive performance is brought into question on a regular basis. The Lakers enter this game on a roll offensively having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. They should relish the opportunity to push the pace against a Bucks squad that has shown no ability (or interest) in slowing the tempo, allowing 91 or more field goal attempts in five straight games. Of course, the Bucks can score with the best of them. They've knocked down at least 43 field goals in five of their last six games. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that has allowed 45, 44, 45, 52 and 49 made field goals over their last five games. In the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season we saw a whopping 262 total points scored. While we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the over (8*). |
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02-08-23 | Wolves v. Jazz OVER 236 | 143-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring track meet between these Northwest Division rivals on Wednesday night. Minnesota got crushed by Denver last night. The lopsided nature of that contest actually helps the Timberwolves cause here as no starter played more than 20 minutes. Here, we'll note that Minnesota has been the picture of consistency offensively, scoring at least 110 points in 16 straight games entering Wednesday's contest. Utah has been held to 108 and 111 points in suffering consecutive losses over its last two games. I'm not one bit worried about the Jazz offense though. They're just two games removed from a 131-point performance in a home win over the Raptors. They've scored at least 120 points in five of their last nine games. Utah has faced Minnesota only twice at full strength (or close to it) this season and scored 132 and 126 points in those two contests (it was missing both Lauri Markannen and Collin Sexton in the other meeting - a 118-108 loss). I think both teams enter this game knowing they'll need to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in order to secure a win. Take the over (8*). |
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