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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-21 | Marlins v. Phillies -173 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami. zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies today, and he brings a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP into the contest. He's also 8-3 vs. Miami in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Phillies are a stellar 14-2 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175, and 25-11 after allowing 9+ runs in their previous game. Take the Phillies. |
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05-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -190 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Walker Buehler tonight. And all Buehler has done in his last 5 starts vs. the Diamondbacks is give up just 6 earned runs over 28 2-3 innings (1.88 ERA), with 36 strikeouts and just 25 baserunners (0.87 WHIP). Not surprisingly, the Dodgers went 4-1 in those five starts. Buehler will face Arizona's veteran southpaw, Madison Bumgarner. Earlier in Bumgarner's career, he was a Dodger killer, as he won 13 of his first 18 decisions. But lately, he's struggled vs. Los Angeles, as he's won just 2 of his last 11 decisions, including 0-5 since 2018. The Dodgers are a powerful 45-13 (+19 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced from -175 to -250, while the Diamondbacks are a horrible 39-130 (minus 55 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +175 to +250. Take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-17-21 | Indians +125 v. Angels | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Los Angeles Angels. Two relatively unknown lefthanders go opposite each other in this Monday night match-up of AL clubs. But don't feel bad for not knowing who Sam Hentges is. The rookie southpaw was a fourth round pick by Cleveland seven years ago and it seemed like he would be destined for life as a long reliever in the Majors this season and perhaps for his career. But fifth starter Logan Allen struggled mightily and was finally demoted which opened up a rotation spot and it appears Hentges has it -- at least for now. Hentges was given the chance to start his first MLB game on May 12 and he blanked the Cubs over four and two-thirds innings while striking out six. So his second start this evening is not surprising. The Indians are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings including 8-2 in the last 10 here in Anaheim. The Angels will go with LHP Patrick Sandoval who has a career record of 1-9 in his three seasons with the team (22 games including 15 starts). Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-16-21 | Cardinals +115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. San Diego has taken the first two games of this 3-game series, so it will be up to lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim to help the Redbirds avoid the sweep. Kim has thrived in the underdog role, as the Cardinals are a sensational 7-1 with him on the hill, when dressed up as the dog. San Diego will also turn to a southpaw this evening, as rookie Ryan (son of David) Weathers will toe the rubber for the Padres. We'll go against the young pitcher, as St. Louis is 5-2 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres are a poor 29-37 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. opposing lefty starters. |
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05-16-21 | Royals v. White Sox -149 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. After a red hot start, the Kansas City Royals came back down to earth and most people probably figured that they were done winning meaningful games for the season. But here we are on Sunday afternoon with KC having won two of the first three games of this series against the mighty White Sox. But today it will be a tall order as the Sox send out one of their brightest young stars -- and they have quite a few -- in RHP Dylan Cease. After some uninspiring results in his first two seasons in the Majors, Cease has flourished in 2021 so far. In seven starts, the 25-year-old is 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 12.5 per nine IP. Cease still has to cut down on his free passes but if he can do that -- and it seems as though he's starting to -- he could be one of the dominant starters in the league. Despite their taking two of three so far, including last night, the Royals are still just 4-14 in the last 18 meetings with the White Sox. Take Chicago. |
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05-16-21 | Braves v. Brewers -106 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves go for a three-game sweep this afternoon after beating Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday. Yesterday's loss dropped the Brewers record to .500 for the first time in over a month. This afternoon it will be up to RHP Freddy Peralta to keep his team at or above the .500 mark. It's hard to have a better start than Peralta did in his last outing as he held the Cardinals to just one hit in seven innings with eight strikeouts and one walk. But his bullpen couldn't seal the deal and so Peralta will hope for a better outcome today against Atlanta and young RHP Huascar Ynoa. That last start lowered Peralta's ERA down to 2.77 in seven starts covering 37 innings with a 0.95 WHIP (Peralta also has two innings of relief under his belt). Peralta has always done by far his best work here in Milwaukee. In 40 career games (13 starts) at Miller Park, Peralta is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 160 strikeouts in just under 120 innings. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-21 | Mets -112 v. Rays | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Tampa Bay Rays. One of the big questions surrounding players who opted out of playing in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic was whether they would be able to come back and be effective after a year off. Well, Mets' veteran RHP Marcus Stroman has answered that question with an emphatic "yes I can." Stroman's first season in New York was the second half of 2019 (after 5 1/2 with the Blue Jays) and he was solid if nothing else (4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 Mets starts). And now after a voluntary year off, the 30-year-old is having one of his best campaigns, going 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts covering just over 40 innings. Stroman is very familiar with the Rays and Tropicana Field from his years in the AL East. In six starts at The Trop, he is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in just under 40 innings. And, finally, the Mets do some of their best work recently before the sun goes down as they are 8-4 in their last 12 games during the day. Take New York. |
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05-15-21 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. It's the battle of the Andersons as Atlanta's Ian Anderson -- a RHP -- squares off against the Brewers and veteran southpaw Brett Anderson. After years of various injuries, Brett Anderson finally had a healthy campaign in 2019. In 31 starts that season, the then-31-year-old went 13-9 with a 3.89 ERA. And given all of the frustration he had in recent years before that, it must have felt like a Cy Young campaign to him. But despite that success in Oakland, the A's granted him free agency after that season and the Brewers signed him to a one-year contract. We all know what happened in 2020. So, when Anderson made it through the short season healthy and with decent results, the Brewers signed him again to a bargain basement $2.5 million contract for this season. So far, so good in 2021, as Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Anderson's teams are 21-9 (+15 games on the moneyline) in his last 30 starts under the lights. Take the Brewers. As always good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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05-15-21 | Giants -121 v. Pirates | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Giants' Johnny Cueto came into this season off of two consecutive forgettable campaigns in 2019 and 2020. So it would have been easy to write him off as washed up at the ripe old baseball age of 35. You could do that with a lot of pitchers, but not with Cueto, who we've seen come back from what seemed like the end of his career before. The RH is having one his best seasons since he won 18 games and was an All Star in 2016. In four starts, Cueto is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and he has a 4:1 K:BB ratio in 23 innings. But the most important stat of all for tonight has to do with what Cueto has done in his career in Pittsburgh. In 18 starts here at PNC Park, Cueto is an incredible 12-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 120 innings. No doubt this is Cueto's favorite place to pitch based on those numbers. And the Giants like it here too recently as, despite last night's 11-inning loss, they are 9-5 in the last 14 games in the Steel City. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-14-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. Joe Musgrove has been a bit of an enigma so far this season. The 28-year-old RHP is in his first year in San Diego after being traded from the Pirates back in January. Despite some very dominant underlying statistics including a 3.00 ERA in seven starts with a 7.71 K:BB ratio -- and the fact that he threw the first no-hitter of the season in Texas back on April 9 -- Musgrove is just 2-4 in the W/L column. That wouldn't be unusual if it weren't for the fact that Musgrove plays for the Padres -- a team considered to have one of the best offensive lineups in the majors this year. Musgrove will try to even out that won-lost ledger a bit tonight with a start against the Cards. Although they have one of the best records in the NL, the Cards' schedule has been mostly vs. NL Central teams with some NL East clubs sprinkled in. The only West team St. Louis has faced so far is the Rockies, so this will be one of its first tests against a club with a winning record. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-21 | Phillies +136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays. As a reliever, Phillies RH Vince Velasquez's season got off to a rough start. After three straight appearances out of the bullpen, the 28-year-old had posted a 9.00 ERA and had a 9:8 K:BB ratio. But Velasquez got a chance to start on April 23 and hasn't looked back. In four starts, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks -- a far cry from those relief numbers. He tries to build on it today in start number five against the Jays -- a team against which he's had past success. In three career starts vs. Toronto, Velasquez is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 16 innings. This will be the first meeting between these two this season. However, the Phils took three of four when they met last September. The Jays' relief pitching has been pretty good, but their starting pitching ERA so far is 4.70, which is fourth-worst in the AL. Finally, consider that the Phils have been playing to the level of their competition lately as they are 7-0 in their last seven vs. winning teams. Take the Phillies in the underdog role tonight. |
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05-14-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees got thumped by the Rays last night in Tampa, 9-1. If there's a cure for the boys in pinstripes after a lopsided loss like that, it's likely a weekend series against the Orioles in Baltimore. The Yankees are 39-12 in the 51 meetings with the O's but even more impressive is their 21-6 record in the last 27 games here at Camden Yards. Making Baltimore's task even harder tonight is the fact that two-time Cy Young award winner RH Corey Kluber will get the start for the visitors. Sure, the now 35-year-old's skills have eroded from when he was considered among the top three starters in baseball, but Kluber still knows how to get young players out (and the Orioles lineup is loaded with young, inexperienced players). In eight career starts vs. Baltimore covering 56 innings, Kluber is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 6.8 K:BB ratio. Take the Yankees. |
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05-12-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brew Crew will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this evening. And he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 3-1 record, 2.45 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. His most recent start (Sept 26, 2020) was his best, as he struck out 10 Cardinals over eight innings, and allowed just two hits and one walk, en route to a 3-0 shutout win. Woodruff's mound opponent will be John Gant. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Gant has made three starts vs. the Brewers in his career, and the Cards lost all three. His ERA vs. Milwaukee is 4.61, while his WHIP is a dreadful 1.83. We'll take Milwaukee as a home favorite tonight, as they're 24-8 their last 32 behind Woodruff, when installed as a favorite, including 16-4 at home. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-21 | Angels v. Astros -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for Houston tonight. And all McCullers has done this season is throw quality starts in five of his six outings, including his previous match-up against this Angels team, on April 25. In that game, the Houston RHP gave up just two runs in six innings, on three hits and two walks. For his career, McCullers has a super 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 starts vs. the Angels, which is in line with his overall 2021 stats (3.58 ERA; 1.16 WHIP). Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Shohei Ohtani, has a 7.72 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in three career starts vs. Houston. But the clincher is that Los Angeles has won just 21 of 76 games vs. American League pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 (or better). Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-21 | Blue Jays -110 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Bryse Wilson will get the ball for the Braves tonight, while veteran lefty, Robbie Ray, will start for Toronto. Interestingly, these two teams already met three times earlier this season in Dunedin, Florida - the Blue Jays' home away from home. Toronto swept that series, three games to none, including a 13-5 blowout behind Ray (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H) on April 30. And, subsequent to that game, Ray went out and led his team to a 9-4 victory at Oakland (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H). Over his last three starts, his WHIP is a super 0.91 (18 2/3 IP, 17 H, 0 BB, 23 K). So, Toronto will have a nice advantage on the mound tonight, as Braves' RHP Bryse Wilson brings a 6.75 ERA and 1.91 WHIP into the contest. Ray's teams are a solid 14-8 when he's worked with an extra day or two of rest; 19-12 as a road favorite; and 22-12 in his nighttime starts. Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-21 | Rangers v. Giants -141 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. Whatever is in the water in the San Francisco Bay, it is enabling the Giants to resurrect veteran pitchers whose careers appear to be on a serious downslide. Witness former Orioles/Braves RHP Kevin Gausman and former Reds prospect Anthony DeSclafani, each enjoying incredible success here in San Francisco. It seems we can also add to that list former Braves/Dodgers southpaw Alex Wood. After being left to the MLB scrap heap following a 2018 trade by the Dodgers, Wood floundered the next two seasons with Cincinnati (2019) and then back in L.A. (2020), before becoming a free agent who failed to attract much interest. Enter the Giants who signed him to a team-friendly one-year deal and -- all of a sudden -- Wood is flourishing again. In four starts, the 30-year-old is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings. And he also has a career 0.64 ERA in two starts vs. Texas. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 48-80 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) on the road, including 0-5 in their last five inter-league road games. And they're 1-4 in the last five meetings here in San Francisco. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-21 | Rays +102 v. A's | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland Athletics. Two starters who weren't on anyone's radar prior to the start of the season will face off this afternoon in pitcher-friendly Oakland (now RingCentral) Coliseum. And while the A's LH Cole Irwin doesn't have much in the way of pedigree, Tampa Bay southpaw Shane McClanahan does -- and then some. McClanahan was a first-round selection by the Rays in the 2018 amateur draft out of the University of South Florida which just happens to be in Tampa, so he didn't even have to pack a suitcase. Even though he didn't pitch past the AA level in the Minors, the Rays felt that McClanahan was ready and they promoted him to make his Big League debut this season. So far, the 24-year-old has not disappointed, allowing two earned runs on seven hits with 10 strikeouts and two walks in his two starts covering eight innings. The Rays lost here last night as a favorite, however they are 6-1 in their last seven games as a road underdog. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-09-21 | Padres -152 v. Giants | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. The Padres (along with the Dodgers and Yankees) were expected to be among the sport's top three teams this season. But they've all gotten off to slow starts. In contrast, the Giants were expected to be below .500, but have sprinted out to a 20-13 record. Yesterday, San Francisco won its second straight game. But it's 3-6 this season off back to back wins. San Diego has yet to announce its starting pitcher, but it appears as if Chris Paddack will be activated after being out for COVID19 protocols. If Paddack can't go, then Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet would be candidates to make the start. Paddack was pitching well before being sidelined, with a 2.94 ERA over his last three starts. But regardless of who gets the ball for San Diego, we'll back the Padres off back to back upset losses on the road vs. a division rival. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Astros -141 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Toronto Blue Jays. Veteran RHP Zack Greinke may have a lost a step or two compared with the All Star form he exhibited in his prime. But the 37-year-old still knows how to get batters out better than most starters in the league and as he will be a free agent at the end of the season, Greinke wants to demonstrate that he can still be an effective starter. He hasn't missed a beat so far in 2021, starting seven games while logging a competitive 3.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in just under 41 innings. This will be his first start of the season vs. Toronto, a team he's faced 12 times in his distinguished career (10 starts). The Jays #1 pitching prospect, 24-year-old RH Nate Pearson will make his season debut this afternoon after a groin injury delayed his MLB season (he pitched for Toronto in 2020). Although he is very talented, it is likely that Pearson will need a start or two to shake off the cobwebs. The 'Stros are 17-7 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Greinke's last 24 first-half starts. And Greinke's teams have gone 159-88 (+44 games on the moneyline) in his home starts. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-08-21 | Dodgers -160 v. Angels | Top | 14-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. The defending World Series champs haven't gotten off to a good start this season. And tonight, they'll hand the ball to their veteran southpaw, Clayton Kershaw, as he'll start on three days rest for the first time in five seasons (and first time ever in the regular season). Of course, the reason Kershaw will be starting on such short rest is that he had his shortest start of his career this past Tuesday vs. the Cubs. Kershaw threw just 39 pitches in one inning, and the Cubs scored four runs against him en route to a 7-1 victory. We'll take the Dodgers to bounce back on this Saturday, as Angels starter Dylan Bundy has led his teams to victory in just one of his last five starts vs. the National League, and nine of his last 27 home starts. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays +131 v. Astros | Top | 8-4 | Win | 131 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. Steven Matz was a second round draft pick of the Mets way back in 2009. The New York native made his Major League debut in 2015 and proceeded to play the next six seasons in New York. Expectations were sky high but those expectations were never realized. So, this past January, Matz was dealt to Toronto where he has begun his second chapter with the Blue Jays. Matz's 4.78 ERA in six starts this season is a bit misleading as he also has a 4-2 record. And Matz has made four starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less. Having spent all of his previous six seasons in the National League, this will be Matz's first career start vs. the Astros. Take the Blue Jays. |
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05-08-21 | Reds v. Indians -112 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Cincinnati. These two pitchers are going in opposite directions -- at least when you look at the win column. In Aaron Civale's six starts this season, the Indians have won five of the six games. And Civale's ERA is 3.20, with a 1.04 WHIP. In contrast, the Reds have dropped five of Luis Castillo's starts, including each of his last four. And his ERA is an ugly 6.07, with a 1.61 WHIP. Even worse: dating back to last season, the Reds have lost 15 of his 21 starts (and eight of his last 10 road starts). And, finally, Cincy is a horrid 22-44 in competitively-priced road games, when priced from -125 to +125. Take Cleveland. |
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05-08-21 | Brewers -117 v. Marlins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. The Marlins put a hurting on the Brewers at home on Friday night and now the Crew will try to get some revenge in this Saturday rematch. RH Adrian Houser will get his seventh start of the season for Milwaukee. After a a 2020 campaign that he would like to forget (a 1-6 record in 12 games with a 5.30 ERA), Houser has rebounded nicely this season. In six starts covering just under 31 innings, Houser has logged a 2-3 record with a 3.52 ERA. Miami's upset victory on Friday extended the Brew Crew's losing streak to six coming into tonight's game. In two previous games vs. the Marlins (one start), Houser is 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and two walks in 8 2/3 innings. Despite their loss on Friday night, the Brewers are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Marlins in South Florida. And Miami is a woeful 15-28 in its last 43 games vs. NL Central opponents. Take the Brewers. |
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05-08-21 | Padres -131 v. Giants | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. We played on the Giants as a home underdog last night, and got the cash as the Giants got to Blake Snell early, and ended up winning 5-4. Today, San Diego will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who will seek to avenge his loss to the Giants and RHP Kevin Gausman last Sunday. We also played on the Giants and Gausman in that game last weekend, but we will switch gears and take San Diego this afternoon. For technical support, consider that Gausman is a wallet-breaking 26-38 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) when pitching on an extra day or two of rest. Meanwhile, Musgrove's teams have gone 8-3 when priced as a road favorite of -150 (or less). Take the Padres to bounce back this afternoon. |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 128 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over San Diego. Anthony DeSclafani is quietly having a solid season for San Francisco. He's made six starts, and has compiled a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Even better: in his two home starts, he's yet to allow a run, and has allowed just 11 baserunners over 15 innings (0.73 WHIP). Blake Snell has been merely pedestrian this season, as his ERA is 3.51, while his WHIP is 1.48. On the road, those numbers take a severe hit, as his Road ERA is 7.50, and his Road WHIP is 2.33. The Giants are 10-3 this season at home; 9-2 off a loss; and 9-6 as an underdog. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-21 | Rays v. A's -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Tampa Bay. Rich Hill has been ineffective this season, as his ERA is 6.40. And, away from home, it's 12.00. In contrast, southpaw Sean Manaea will attempt to lead the A's to victory in his sixth straight start, as the A's have won each of his last five outings, by a combined score of 30-12. One of those victories was against this Tampa Bay team, on April 26, when Manaea gave up just 1 run over five innings. That game lowered his career ERA vs. Tampa to 3.67. Meanwhile, Hill's 1-2 in three starts vs. Oakland, with a 5.25 ERA. Take the A's. |
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05-07-21 | Mariners +110 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. When we last saw the Mariners on the baseball field, it was on Wednesday afternoon and they were being no-hit over nine innings by John Means in a 6-0 drubbing by the Orioles. Means might just be the best pitcher in the AL right now and there is no John Means-caliber pitcher starting games for the Rangers currently. It appears the M's are now using a six-man rotation and tonight it will be RH Chris Flexen taking the ball. Far from a household name, the 26-year-old has been quietly effective this season, going 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in five starts covering 27 innings. Most importantly, Seattle is 4-1 in Flexen's five trips to the hill. This weekend series marks the first meetings of these two teams this year and the Mariners have dominated play between them recently. In the last seven meetings, Seattle is 7-0 going back to last August 21. Take the Mariners. |
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's +123 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Toronto Blue Jays. Another Major League Baseball season and another over-achieving Oakland A's team. The team that always seems to do more with less is doing it again in 2021. The A's won the first two games of this four-game series to bump their record to 19-12 and their lead in the AL West to 2 1/2 games. The pitching depth is once again one of the best in the Majors as a healthy RHP Mike Fiers didn't even get his first start until April 30 when manager Bob Melvin decided to go to a six-man rotation. But now the 35-year-old veteran's presence as a starter is even more important as the team just put LH Jesus Luzardo on the IL with a broken finger. Fiers' first outing was solid, as he threw six innings, allowing three runs on six hits in a quality start against Baltimore. He should be able to build on that today especially since he's back here at home where he has an amazing 15-5 record and 3.43 ERA in 33 career games (32 starts) covering 189 innings. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia. The Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this afternoon, and all he's done this season is go 2-0 in six starts, with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. The Brewers have won five of his six starts this season, including a 6-5 win over the world champion Dodgers his last time out. Even better: Woodruff is 2-0 in his career vs. the Phillies with an ERA of 0.50, and a WHIP of 0.55. In his three starts vs. the Phils, he's allowed just three hits in 18 innings, and has struck out 18. Take Milwaukee this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Indians v. Royals +145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians. Brady Singer is having a nice season for the Royals, as he's made five starts, and has a 3.09 ERA in those games. Indeed, if you take away Singer's first start of the season, in which he gave up five runs in 3 1-3 innings, then his ERA is a fantastic 1.35, with a WHIP of 1.00. Singer's made two starts in his career (both last season) vs. Cleveland, and KC has gone 2-0 in those games, and Singer's ERA was 1.38, with an 0.61 WHIP. Take the Royals as a big home underdog tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Astros +127 v. Yankees | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The first game of this series went to the Yankees in pretty dominating fashion on Tuesday and now the 'Stros will try to even the score. Despite a career ERA of 2.78 and 10 games now under his belt (four of them starts), RHP Luis Garcia is still searching for his first MLB victory. Garcia gets start number four in his sixth appearance this season and the 24-year-old Venezuelan righthander will pull out all of the stops in hopes of getting that first career win. The Yanks will go with LHP Jordan Montgomery who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA in just under 27 innings of action. Montgomery goes in start number six tonight and it will be his fourth career outing vs. the Astros (all starts). In those three previous starts vs. Houston, Montgomery has posted an 0-1 record with a 4.63 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. This could be a very good match-up for Garcia and his team as the Astros are 64-33 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 97 games vs. teams with a LH starter. Take Houston |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Marlins | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins. The D-backs will hand the ball to Luke Weaver, while Miami will start RHP, Pablo Lopez. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Lopez has been a big money-burner in his career, as his teams have won just 17 of his 49 starts (minus 11 games on the moneyline). Even worse: Lopez's ERA in his career starts vs. Arizona is 4.50. The Diamondbacks are 6-2 this season as a road underdog priced from +125 to +175 this season, and we'll take the live underdog this evening. |
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05-05-21 | Giants -105 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will start Jon Gray on this Wednesday, while the Giants will hand the ball to Logan Webb. Gray has had scant success vs. the Giants in his career, as he's 1-6, with an ERA of 6.16, and an ugly 1.70 WHIP. And Gray's teams have gone 3-9 in his 12 starts vs. the Giants. In contrast, Webb is 1-0 in three starts vs. Colorado, including a quality start (5 IP, 3 ER) in a no-decision back on April 10 of this year. The Giants are 28-15 their last 43 vs. losing teams (+13 games on the moneyline), and 8-1 this season in day games. Meanwhile, Colorado is a poor 4-7 in afternoon starts. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-04-21 | Dodgers -225 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -225 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. With Monday's scheduled game postponed, these two clubs will play a double-header today with Clayton Kershaw scheduled to start the first game and new Dodger Trevor Bauer slated to go in the night-cap. That's a double nightmare for most teams as these two have four Cy Young awards between them (though Chicago was able to get to Kershaw in Game 1). RH Bauer had that rare feat in his last start -- an eight inning complete game. It may sound good at first, but despite being the only pitcher to go for his team that day, it means they also lost the game, something Bauer's offense would like to rectify tonight. Under the new rules, each game of a double header will now only be seven innings, so Bauer could easily throw another complete game -- hopefully with a different outcome. Last year as a member of the Reds, Bauer had a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. Chicago. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-04-21 | Astros +111 v. Yankees | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Both of these teams had Monday off with the Yankees winning on Sunday (a 2-0 shutout) while the Stros dropped a tough 5-4 decision. Veteran RHP Zack Greinke will go for the Astros tonight and this is already the 37-year-old's seventh start of the season. Greinke would like to put the last start behind him as it was his shortest of the season (four innings). But even when Greinke doesn't have his best stuff, he still can put his team in a position to win, as evidenced by the fact that Houston is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Greinke's main struggles have come at home this season, as he is 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in three Houston starts covering just under 16 innings. However, in the same number of starts on the road, Greinke has been killing it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in 21 innings. The Astros are also 18-8 in Greinke's last 26 starts following a Houston loss. Finally, the Stros also love having a day off as they are 31-9 (+16 games on the moneyline) in their last 40 after a rest day. Take Houston in an underdog role tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -122 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. Dustin May will get the start for the champs tonight, and he will no doubt want a better result than the one he was dealt in his last start. That was six days ago against the Padres. May pitched six innings, and gave up just one run, on two hits, with 10 strikeouts. Yet the Dodgers lost that game, 8-7, in extra innings. May has a more-than-respectable 2.53 ERA on the season, in four starts. But he only has one win to show for it. I expect him to get back into the 'win column' on this Saturday, as the Dodgers are a fantastic 14-7 in his 21 career starts, and 20-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Brandon Woodruff, has a career ERA of 6.96 in his starts vs. Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -173 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox ran into reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber last night and, if not for one bad inning, they might have been able to pull it out. Despite losing the game, 5-3, the Sox out-hit Cleveland. Unlike the Indians, Chicago features not one pitching ace, but two. Lance Lynn may not be quite as flashy as #1 starter, Lucas Giolito, but the 33-year-old RH can be just as dominant. And he already boasts a complete game shutout this season. But after his most recent start, Lynn was placed on the 10-day IL for a trapezius strain, retroactive to April 17. He will return this afternoon to get his fourth start of the season. Lynn's numbers are among the best of any pitcher in the league as he has logged a 0.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 13.50 K:BB ratio (27 Ks with 2 walks). In five career starts vs. Cleveland, Lynn has a 1.41 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with 41 strikeouts in 32 innings. Finally, Lynn's teams are 18-8 (+10 games on the moneyline) in his last 26 home starts. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-30-21 | Red Sox -160 v. Rangers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Texas Rangers. There are few starters that can throw the ball as hard as Red Sox RH starter Nathan Evolaldi. The 31-year-old's fastball regularly averages close to 100 mph and so far in 2021 his velocity has stayed exactly the same as it was the previous two seasons. Limited by injuries in prior campaigns, Eovaldi appears to be healthy now and is having very nice start to the year, posting a 3.77 ERA in five starts covering 28 2/3 seasons with 27 strikeouts and just five walks. Start number six will be his third career outing against the Rangers. In his previous starts vs. Texas, Eovaldi has logged a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 12 innings. Texas beat the Red Sox and former Rangers southpaw starter Martin Perez last night here at Globe Life Park. But Eovaldi is not a left-hander and the Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Despite their loss last night, the Sox are still 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Rangers. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-30-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates -105 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Royals over the in the AL are the biggest surprise in the Majors this year with a 15-8 record coming into tonight. But almost as impressive is the job that the Pirates have done in the senior circuit. The team that many people predicted would be MLB's worst are an incredible 12-12 as we end the first month of the season. Pittsburgh always seems to find a way to develop very good young pitchers -- even if they don't end up sticking around very long. Tonight the Bucs will take on their division rivals and showcase another one of those talented young hurlers in RH JT Brubaker. In four starts, Brubaker is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 23 strikeouts and five walks in just over 22 innings. This will be Brubaker's first career start vs. the Cards, although he threw two scoreless relief innings against them previously. The Cards will go with RHP John Gant, who has a sparkling 2.25 ERA in his four starts -- but who also has issued 13 walks in 20 innings. Those free passes will catch up to him at some point this season. The Bucs are 11-8 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games vs. RH starters. Take Pittsburgh. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-29-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. RHP Luke Weaver was traded from the Cardinals to the Diamondbacks at the end of the 2018 season and he proceeded to have a very nice campaign the following year. In an injury-shortened 2019 season, Weaver went 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts covering just over 64 innings. But his second year in the desert didn't go nearly as smoothly. Maybe it was the pandemic or maybe it was something else, but 2020 is a year that Weaver would likely want to erase. In 12 starts, he went 1-9, leading the league in losses, with a 6.58 ERA in 52 innings. So far, 2021 has been somewhere in between those last two campaigns. But in Weaver's only start this season -- out of four total -- here at Chase Field, Weaver was brilliant vs. the Reds, tossing seven one-hit, shutout innings with eight K's and one BB in his only victory. He returns tonight to face the 9-15 Rockies. The home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of these two, while the favorite is 7-2 the last nine. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-28-21 | Padres -158 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. NOTE: There's been a pitching change on the Arizona side, but we will still be on San Diego with David Weathers. We played on the Padres and Weathers last Friday as a +160 underdog vs. the Dodgers, and got the $$$ in a 3-2 victory. Here, the Padres have been installed as a road favorite vs. Arizona, and we'll once again back the rookie southpaw. Weathers has been sensational in his two starts, as he has yet to allow a run, and has surrendered just two hits and three walks in 9 1/3 innings. And both of those starts were against the best team in baseball -- the Los Angeles Dodgers -- and also one of the best pitchers, Walker Buehler. Tonight, Weathers will get a relative breather by facing Arizona and Riley Smith. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -196 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. We were 7-2 yesterday, but one of our two defeats was in this match-up. Cincinnati came back to win that game, 6-5. And that was the 2nd straight loss suffered by the Dodgers. We'll once again back the defending champs here, at home, as they'll hand the ball to their veteran lefty, Clayton Kershaw. Although Kershaw stumbled in his first start of the season, in hitter-friendly Colorado, he's been lights-out since. In his last four starts, he's surrendered just 4 runs and 16 hits in 26 innings, with 29 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He'll face Cincy's RHP, Sonny Gray, who comes into this game off a loss at St. Louis, in which he gave up 5 runs, and 9 baserunners in just 3 2-3 innings. Gray's ERA on the season is 7.87, and his WHIP is a dreadful 2.12. One of Kershaw's best situations, historically, has been pitching in the daytime, as the Dodgers are 80-28 (+35 games on the moneyline) in his daytime starts. Meanwhile, the Reds are an awful 34-56 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -225 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -225 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. Walker is an ironic first name for a pitcher with a 21 to 1 K:BB ratio. Having said that, the Dodgers' young RH stud, Walker Buehler, would probably trade those stellar stats for some more wins. Bueher has had exactly two regular season victories since the end of the 2019 season despite being one of the best young hurlers in the game for a large portion of that time. Buehler gets a chance for season win number two tonight against the Reds, a team against which he has a career 1.47 ERA and 0.87 ERA, in just over 18 innings. Buehler's lone victory over the Reds came here at Dodger Stadium where he has a career record of 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 203 innings. That 2.39 ERA is almost a run-and-a-half lower than his road number of 3.84. The Dodgers are 14-1 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 15 starts as a home favorite of -200 or more. Despite their win on Monday, the Reds are still just 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. NL West teams, and they're a horrid 50-63 (-23 games on the moneyline) off a win. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-27-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -152 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Last night, the Marlins were the first team to find success against Milwaukee RHP Corbin Burnes, as they ran roughshod over the Brewers, 8-0. But off that blowout loss, we'll back Adrian Houser and the Brew Crew tonight, as Milwaukee's 68-35 (+26 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a home upset loss, while Miami is an atrocious 34-59 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) after scoring 8+ runs. Additionally, Milwaukee is a solid 256-136 (+23 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced at -150 (or higher), while Miami is a poor 108-177 (-20 games on the moneyline) as a road dog priced from +125 to +175. Take Adrian Houser and the Brewers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-21 | Padres +111 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 111 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's hard to believe that L.A.'s Dustin May is only 23 years old. The big (6' 6") fire-balling RH pitches with the kind of confidence that makes it seem like he's been doing it for many years. May is following up his excellent sophomore season, in which he went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 12 games (10 starts), with another fantastic campaign -- at least so far -- in 2021. In three starts covering 15 1/3 innings, May is 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and only four walks (a 5.50 K:BB ratio). But even May's great numbers don't compare with what San Diego's Joe Musgrove is doing. The Padres' righty has trotted out to the mound in four games this season, and has given up just 3 runs over 26 innings (1.04 ERA), including a no-hitter vs. Texas. And Musgrove's K:BB ratio is a jaw-dropping 12.33 (37 K, 3 BB), while his WHIP is 0.53. In all of baseball, only Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes is putting up better numbers in 2021. So far, in this hotly-contested Southern California rivalry, we're 3-0 this season. Last Sunday, we took Blake Snell as a home underdog, and easily won. We also played on the Padres as a big underdog with David Weathers this past Friday, and got the $$$. And then we came back with the Dodgers last night, and won with Trevor Bauer. Tonight, there's only one way to look with Musgrove installed as an underdog. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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04-25-21 | Nationals v. Mets -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. When Taijuan Walker came into the league in 2013, the then-20-year-old Mariners' RH was touted as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. And in the first couple of seasons -- with a small sample size -- it appeared that he might fulfill that promise. But serious injuries derailed Walker's ascension to the top of the Major League pitching ladder. In a comeback season in 2020, Walker finally blossomed. And at age 27 there still seemed to be plenty of opportunity ahead if he can stay healthy. Walker pitched a full season of 11 starts and posted a very nice 2.70 and 1.16 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Blue Jays before signing a free agent contract with the Mets this past February. Walker has followed that up with a 3.21 ERA in three starts so far in 2021. Here at home, Walker has posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in two starts covering 10 1/3 innings. And his teams have won eight of his last 10 starts. He'll match up against a struggling Patrick Corbin this afternoon. Washington's veteran lefty has a 10.95 ERA, and a 1.86 WHIP. Even worse, dating back to last season, the Nats have lost 10 of his last 11 starts. Finally, the Nationals are just 4-9 in the last 13 meetings here at Citi Field. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-24-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -141 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. When these two teams played six days ago in San Diego, the two starters that went to the mound were the same ones that are scheduled for tonight's game. We played on San Diego in that game last Sunday, and LHP Blake Snell and the Padres prevailed, 5-2. Now, Snell will face off once again opposite the Dodgers' latest ace, RH Trevor Bauer, and we'll switch gears, and take Los Angeles tonight. The 30-year-old Bauer won the NL Cy Young award last season and now he will have a great opportunity to win the top pitching award in back-to-back seasons, as he's playing for the best team in his career. Bauer is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.62 WHIP through his first four starts covering 26 innings for the Dodgers. Despite all of the Padres' recent success, let's not forget that they are 17-41 in the last 58 meetings with the Dodgers and 20-48 in the last 68 meetings here at Dodger Stadium. Finally, Snell's teams are 8-12 (-12 games on the moneyline) in their last 20 road games. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-24-21 | Brewers -108 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have had their offensive issues this season -- a team batting average of .215 -- but they didn't have any issues on Friday. Chicago blasted the Brewers by a 15-2 final, knocking starter Brett Anderson out of the game after just 1/3 of an inning. This afternoon, it will be Freddy Peralta going for Milwaukee. The veteran RH was a strikeout machine when he entered the Majors in 2018 and he has improved his punch-out numbers every year since. Peralta posted a ridiculous strikeout rate of 14.4 last season and so far in 2021 he has actually bettered that number, ringing up an absurd 15.5 batters every nine innings he's been on the mound. Being on the road doesn't seem to bother the Brewers as the Crew is 7-2 in its last nine road games coming into Saturday. They're also 6-3 in their last nine day games. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 4-9 (-7 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 games against teams with a RH starter. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-23-21 | Reds -106 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Reds may be glad to get out of Cincy, and even happier about the fact that they don't have to see the Diamondbacks for a while. It was an ugly three-game series at home against Arizona as the D-Backs swept the Reds, plating 27 runs in the process. Tonight, Busch Stadium is the venue and the Reds will turn to veteran RHP Sonny Gray to get them out of their funk. Gray had a delayed start to his season due to a back issue but appears to be fully recovered now. His first start was six days ago against the Indians and, as expected, Gray was a bit rusty and limited in his pitch count, but he didn't do badly. Expect things to improve tonight and, if Gray can work efficiently, he should stay on the mound longer than the 4 1/3 innings he lasted against Cleveland. Despite the Cards' dominance in this division, this has been a good match-up for the Reds who are 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The Reds are also 5-1 in their last six vs. division opponents. Take Cincy. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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04-22-21 | Padres +160 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 160 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Rookie southpaw Ryan (son of David) Weathers earned another start after his solid performance last week vs. the Dodgers (and mound opponent, Walker Buehler). In that game -- the first of 19 regular season games between these SoCal rivals -- Weathers gave up 0 ER in 3 2-3 innings, and allowed just 1 hit and 2 walks. San Diego ended up falling to the Dodgers, 11-6, in extra innings, and lost two of the three games in that series. We played on the Padres as a home underdog in the third game of that series against the Dodgers' Trevor Bauer, and got the $$$ when the Padres pulled off the mild upset. San Diego is a bigger underdog today. Indeed, it's the biggest price on San Diego yet this season. And we'll take the live underdog, as the Padres are 10-9 (+7.4 games on the moneyline) when priced as a road underdog of +150 or more. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants -137 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins. Whereas NL teams like the Braves, Cardinals, and Nats have struggled this season, the Giants and Marlins have done much better than expected. The Giants even have a winning record. And even though the Marlins are still under the .500 mark, they are very close and seem like they've been in just about every game they've played regardless of the outcome. For the Giants, they're finding success with their veterans leading the way...guys like Posey, Belt, and Cueto. On the other hand, it's been mostly young guns for the Fish. So it's fitting that tonight's pitching match-up features an eight-year MLB veteran for the Giants in RH Aaron Sanchez vs. a second-year rookie in LH Daniel Castano. It's true that Sanchez is still looking for his first win of 2021, but he has pitched well enough to have at least two victories at this point, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his three starts covering just under 15 innings. It won't hurt Sanchez tonight that Oracle Park has not been friendly to the Fish lately, as Miami is just 1-4 in its last five tries here. Take the Giants. |
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04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -163 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. Here are two teams that were expected to be also-rans in their respective divisions. It's early, but so far the Mariners and Red Sox have been two of the biggest surprises in the AL this season. Seattle is 11-7 and sitting fairly comfortably in second place in the West while the Red Sox, at 12-7, are all alone atop the East. Boston is pretty good at grabbing starting pitchers off the MLB scrap heap and bringing them back to life. The Sox did it three seasons ago with Nathan Eovaldi. And now Eovaldi is having his best season ever -- albeit in a small sample size. But the latest reclamation project is 28-year-old RH Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was toiling in Philly as a middle reliever when Boston picked him up last August and he hasn't looked back, assuming a full time rotation job, while going 2-0 in three starts with a 3.68 ERA. Pivetta's teams are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a wallet-busting 17-40 in the last 57 meetings in Boston.  Take the Red Sox. |
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04-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -166 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -166 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game will follow the resumption of yesterday's suspended game (which Arizona was winning, 5-4, in the top of the 8th inning). The listed pitchers are Tyler Mahle and Merrill Kelly. Mahle came into the Majors in 2017 as a 7th round pick of the Reds with (not surprisingly) with very little fanfare. His first three seasons in the league did little to change the lack of excitement around him as the RH posted some uninspiring numbers over that span. But in 2020, the then-25-year-old Mahle very quietly put a nice little season together with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts), while improving his strikeout rate to a career-high 11.3 per nine innings. That is, until this season when Mahle has become even more of a K machine, punching out over 14 batters every nine innings thus far, in his three starts covering 14 innings. Mahle gets start number four this evening, and it will be his second of the season vs. the D-Backs. In his first outing on April 9, he went four scoreless innings in a 6-5 Cincy victory. Mahle has also done his best work at home lately as the Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts here at Great American Ball Park. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-20-21 | Rangers v. Angels -198 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. We will forgive Shohei Ohtani for only having one start in 2021 up to this point. The 26-year-old Japanese superstar has been busy crushing balls, driving in runs, and even stealing the occasional base as a DH this season. There may not be much argument anymore that Ohtani is more valuable to this club as an everyday hitter. But given the state of the Angels' rotation and the fact that Ohtani is probably good enough to be a #3 starter on most teams, he will continue to get regular starts assuming he's healthy. Start number two for the RH comes tonight against a Rangers team which has had some production issues lately (notwithstanding Monday's 6-run outburst). Veteran RHP Jordan Lyles will get the start for Texas and, although his ERA (4.70) is better than last season, that's not saying much. In 2020, Lyles led the league with 45 earned runs allowed, which resulted in a scary 7.02 ERA. And his teams are a horrid 24-50 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog in his career starts. Despite their victory yesterday, the Rangers are still just 1-5 in their last six games vs. RH starters, and 44-75 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) their last 119 on the road. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies -151 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -151 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants. Logan Webb is a perfect example why you need to ignore spring training statistics. Webb's numbers this spring were completely off the charts -- one run on seven hits in 17 innings (a 0.53 ERA) with 22 strikeouts and two walks. Pretty impressive, right? The only problem is that the 24-year-old Giants RH has a career MLB ERA of over five runs, and a career WHIP of over 1.50 (his minor league numbers weren't much better for the most part). And so far this season, Webb is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings. He has a tough assignment tonight as well, having to face a Phillies team which will put a proven starter on the mound in veteran RH Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts covering 18 innings. The Giants took the first game of this three-game series last night, but the Phillies are still 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two here at Citizens Bank Park. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. Los Angeles lost back-to-back games for the first time last night. The Dodgers certainly had their chances, but were unable to get the key hits they needed to mount a comeback win. In the 9th inning, Mookie Betts was hit in his forearm by a pitch, so it would not be a surprise if he is held out of this afternoon game. But we'll still back the defending champs today, as Seattle is an awful 27-49 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. left-handed starters, and 27-64 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) as underdogs of +150 (or more).  And Julio Urias is one of the best (and one of my favorite) lefties in baseball. The Dodgers are 3-0 behind Urias this season and, in his career, are 10-3 (+4 games on the moneyline) as road favorites with him on the mound. Take the Dodgers. |
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04-19-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. While most of the attention on the Dodgers' stacked pitching staff has been heaped on Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, young Dustin May just goes out and does his thing. And May's thing is striking out hitters with some of the nastiest pitches in the league. At the end of the day, it might be May who actually possesses the best pure stuff on this team. It's for that reason that the Dodgers will be cautious with the 23-year-old RH and he will likely be on a strict pitch count in most, if not all of his starts. May has a stellar 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in two starts covering 10 1/3 innings. And start number three will come tonight against the Mariners in the first of a two-game series. Not surprisingly, tonight will be May's first career appearance vs. Seattle and it's a good bet that pitcher-friendly Safeco Field will agree with the young fireballer. May is undefeated (3-0) with a 1.93 ERA in eight games (five starts) against AL opponents. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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04-19-21 | Brewers +136 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 136 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. The Padres salvaged their series with their Division rivals L.A. by taking Game 3 on Sunday (and beating last season's Cy Young Award winner in the process). But one day later they have to face another one of the NL's best in the Brewers' RH Brandon Woodruff. And Milwaukee comes into this three-game series with quite a chip on its shoulder after losing two of three to the lowly Pirates. Woodruff has improved his numbers every year he's been in the Majors. And so far 2021 is no different as the 28-year-old has posted a terrific 2.12 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts covering 17 innings. Perhaps most important is he has yet to give up a home run and has a 6.33 K:BB ratio (19 Ks and 3 walks). RH Joe Musgrove did hurl the first no-hitter in the league this season (and first in Padres history) but his numbers vs. the Brewers are not good. In five career starts, covering 29 1/3 innings against the Crew, Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. Take Milwaukee in this underdog role. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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04-18-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +112 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 112 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight is a chance for Blake Snell to get some revenge. Snell was on the mound against the Dodgers in last year's World Series Game 6 -- the final game of the series that was won by L.A. despite Snell pitching brilliantly. And this afternoon, the 28-year-old southpaw will have arguably a better team behind than he did when he was starting for the Rays last fall. The Padres finished last season with the second-best record in the NL and they have improved themselves over the off-season and figure to give the Dodgers -- favored by everyone to return to the World Series -- a run for their money. Snell has a 4.35 ERA through his first three starts but that number is a bit misleading. He lasted less than an inning in his last start which was in Pittsburgh rather than pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his two starts here, Snell has allowed two earned runs in 9 2/3 IP with 16 K's. Snell's teams are also 14-6 (+3 games on the moneyline) in his last 20 home starts. And he has a career 2.25 ERA vs. the Dodgers in three starts. Los Angeles will hand the ball to RHP Trevor Bauer this afternoon. Unfortunately, Bauer is a dismal 0-4 vs. the Padres with an ERA north of 5 runs a game. Finally, Snell's teams are 27-19 (plus 8 games on the moneyline) with him on the hill, when the odds range from +125 to -125, while Bauer's teams are a poor 18-25 (minus 8 games on the moneyline) on the road in the same price range. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-18-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -176 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. There's no doubt that Aaron Nola is the ace of the Phillies' staff, but with starters like Zach Wheeler and an improving Zach Eflin by his side, the team is hoping that the 27-year-old RH won't have to shoulder as much of the load this season. Although he's still looking for his first win, Nola is putting up his normal ace-like numbers with a 3.45 ERA, 10.3 strikeout rate, and 6.00 K:BB ratio through his first three starts. He's had plenty of success against the Cards in his career, going 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts vs. St. Louis covering just over 38 innings. This afternoon is the rubber match of a three-game series and, despite the Cards victory on Saturday, the Phillies are 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-2 in the last six here at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils are also 19-7 (plus 6 games on the moneyline) in Nola's last 26 starts as a home favorite of at least -150. Meanwhile, the Cards are 6-11 in their last 17 as an underdog of +150 or higher. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Giants +120 v. Marlins | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins. Remember Aaron Sanchez? The RHP broke into the Majors in 2014 as a 21-year-old with the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez went on to post three solid seasons culminating with his 2016 campaign in which he went 15-2 with a league-leading 3.00 ERA and an All Star selection. But in the three seasons that followed, Sanchez went 10-23 with an ERA right around five runs as he struggled to get back to the form he displayed in his early years. Now with the Giants, Sanchez is looking to resurrect his career. And so far 2021 has been a return to form for the 28-year-old. It's a small sample size, but in two starts covering 10 innings, Sanchez has posted a 2.70 ERA, with three ER on nine hits, with seven strikeouts and only one walk. RHP Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the Marlins this evening. Miami is 7-14 in Alcantara's last 21 home starts. And the Marlins are also a wallet-breaking 46-71 (-13 games on the moneyline) in their last 117 home games. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Indians +121 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Cincinnati Reds. RHP Triston McKenzie pretty much burst on the scene in the COVID-shortened 2020 season for the Indians. In eight games -- six starts -- the 23-year-old string bean (he's listed at 6'5" and 165 lbs) posted some solid numbers with a 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 42 strikeouts and nine walks, in 33 1/3 innings. McKenzie started out 2021 with a relief appearance and then got a start his next time out, last Monday, against the White Sox. He's lined up for his second start this afternoon against Sonny Gray and the Reds. It will be Gray's season debut as the veteran RHP has been hampered by a back injury which limited his Spring training to just two innings. With Trevor Bauer gone to the Dodgers, Gray has the talent to become the co-number one starter on the team this season, but he will likely need a few starts to get to that level. Despite their surprising early success this season, the Reds are just 33-52 (-23 games on the moneyline) in their last 85 day games. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds -107 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians. The Reds will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman tonight, while Cleveland will start Logan Allen. This will be Allen's first road start this season. And he's been a much worse pitcher away from home (8.10 ERA) compared to his outings at home (3.60 ERA). Hoffman will be making his second start at home, and his first one was brilliant, as he gave up just 1 run over 5 innings, in a 12-1 Cincy victory vs. the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds have won their last five at home. And that bodes well, especially given that Cleveland is a poor 18-24 (minus 7.4 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. Take the Reds in this opening game of this 3-game series. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. The final game of Philadelphia's series against the Mets was postponed due to weather on Thursday, and that does three things for the Phils. First, it allows them to skip meeting the best pitcher in NL in Jacob deGrom (although we actually liked the value of Eflin as a +220 underdog yesterday). Second, it gives RHP Zach Eflin an extra day of rest, which is not a bad thing, as the Phillies are 19-13 after a day off, while St. Louis is a poor 10-21 in the same situation. And, third, Eflin is now favored, and the Phillies are 18-10 (+4.4 games on the moneyline) as a favorite, with him on the mound. Eflin has been very good in his two starts so far this season. In 13 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 10 strikeouts and only two walks. The Cards will go with veteran RH Carlos Martinez who began life in the Majors as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen and is now back in the rotation. To say that Martinez's return to the rotation has been rough would be a big understatement. Last season, C-Mart started five games and went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA. And so far through two starts in 2021, he is picking up where he left off in 2020, with an 0-2 record, 6.30 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. St. Louis is also 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Philly. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Tigers v. Astros -230 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -230 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. After dropping Games 1 + 2 in this three-game series, the Astros will look to salvage things with a win in Game 3, tonight. Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for the Astros, and he's been a model of consistency in his two starts this season. McCullers went five innings in each start, and also gave up just one run, two hits and three walks in both of those starts! Tonight, McCullers will face a Tigers team, which will hand the ball to Michael Fulmer. Unfortunately for Detroit, Fulmer is 0-2 in his career vs. Houston, with an ERA north of 6 runs per game, and a WHIP of 1.79. The Tigers are a dreadful 43-133 (minus 32 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or higher), and 11-28 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. Like any MLB starter, the Phils' RH Zack Wheeler wants to win every time he goes out to the mound. But the 30-year-old has got to feel an additional incentive whenever he faces the Mets. It was New York, after all, which decided to not give Wheeler a contract extension in 2019 after he had been there for his first seven MLB seasons. And when that contract season came to a head, Wheeler had just completed his second straight winning campaign and looked for certain like a pitcher who New York would want to lock up. But, instead, Wheeler was granted free agency and he ended up signing with the Phillies -- a move that no doubt he is happy with now. Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts in 2020. And he started out this season with a bang, tossing seven innings of one-hit ball in a shutout win against Atlanta. The Mets beat this Phillies team in both games of the double-header on Tuesday, but they are just 25-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) in their last 71 games as an underdog of +150 (or less). Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Reds -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Francisco Giants. Yesterday, we played on the Giants behind Kevin Gausman, and were rewarded with a 7-6 come-from-behind victory. Today, we'll switch gears, and take the road team, Cincinnati. The Reds will hand the ball to RHP Tyler Mahle, who has been terrific this season. Mahle has made two starts, and threw four shutout innings last Friday at Arizona, and gave up just two earned runs over five innings vs. the Cardinals, back on April 3. Today, Mahle will match up against the Giants' Johnny Cueto, who has a career 4.50 ERA vs. the Reds. Cincy is 11-6 behind Mahle, when installed as a favorite. Take the Reds. |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers' Corbin Burnes has been as effective as any pitcher in baseball through his first two starts. He's faced the Twins and Cardinals, and has given up just 1 run over 12 1-3 innings, while allowing just two baserunners (!!!), and striking out 20 batters. Today, Burnes will take on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. Chicago's a poor 26-38 on the division road, and 140-284 (minus 42 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 (or higher), while Milwaukee is a dominant 255-134 (+25 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 (or more). Take the Brewers this afternoon. |
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04-13-21 | Reds v. Giants -102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Cincinnati Reds. Buck Showalter may be a well-liked personality around baseball, but it seems that the verdict is in when it comes to his handling (and that of his coaches) of pitchers when he was managing the Orioles. RHs Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were two of the hottest prospects coming up for the O's at about the same time and they could never get on track in their time in Charm City. But now that they've both left, Bundy and Gausman are blossoming on the West Coast -- looking like the pitchers the O's thought they could be. Gausman is now in San Francisco and he broke out big last season in 12 games (10 starts), and so far he looks even better at age 30 this season. In his two starts, Gausman sports a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 11 K's and 3 BBs in just under 14 innings. Start #3 comes tonight against the surprising Reds and their ace, RH Luis Castillo. Unfortunately for Cincy, it is 0-5 in Castillo's last five starts as an underdog/PK). Meanwhile, Gausman's teams are 31-18 (+9 games on the moneyline) at home in his starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-13-21 | Indians -100 v. White Sox | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox. We're less than two weeks into the season, but you'd be hard-pressed to get a pitching match-up in the AL as good as this one the rest of the year. When it comes to American League hurlers, it doesn't get much better than RHPs Shane Bieber of the Tribe and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Bieber won the AL Cy Young in the 2020 shortened season, while Giolito finished seventh. Neither one of these aces was at his best in his season debut, which is not surprising. What is surprising is that a Cleveland offense, which figured to be in rebuilding mode in its first season without superstar SS Francisco Lindor, has actually been fairly productive so far. Dating back to last season, the Indians have won six of the last seven meetings vs. Chicago, and two of those victories came in Bieber vs. Giolito match-ups, like tonight. The White Sox are 9-13 in Giolito's last 22 home starts, as well as 2-7 in his last nine starts as a home underdog (or PK). Meanwhile, Cleveland is 24-11 in Bieber's road starts. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-12-21 | Tigers v. Astros -225 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -225 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. Zack Greinke will get the ball tonight, as he looks to stop the bleeding for Houston, after it dropped its last two games on Friday + Saturday to the Oakland A's. The good news for Houston is that Greinke is as good as any pitcher in baseball when installed as a favorite, as his teams have gone 196-112 in his career, including 36-8 (+19 games on the moneyline) when priced as a favorite of -200 (or more). Meanwhile, Detroit is 42-133 (minus 34 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more). Finally, Houston is 31-6 its last 37 when playing with a day off. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-21 | Angels -112 v. Royals | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Kansas City Royals. For years, the Angels had Mike Trout's bat in the line-up and not a whole lot more. Sure, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols put in some very good seasons alongside Trout, but the offense was missing that spark plug to go with the best player in the game. But those days may be over and Trout may finally have some major help in the top half of the order in the form of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. In his fourth season in the Majors and with his injuries apparently behind him, the 26-year-old Ohtani is having a Trout-like campaign so far in 2021, showing both power at the plate and speed on the basepaths. Tonight, it will be veteran RH Alex Cobb getting his second start for L.A. as the Halos try to come back from a big 15-1 loss on Saturday. The Angels are 4-2 in the last six meetings and will face the Royals' Brady Singer, who was hit hard by the Rangers in his 2021 debut (3 1/3 IP, 6 R, 5H, 3 BB). KC is a poor 13-25 when priced from -125 to +125. and 67-106 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) vs. RHP. Take L.A. |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. The fluid state of the Cards' rotation gives opportunity to talented pitchers who want a chance to show their stuff as a starter. Enter 28-year-old RH John Gant. Gant was a star out of the bullpen in 2019, going 11-1 with a 3.66 ERA despite not starting a single game (he also threw in three saves). Then in a short 2020 campaign, Gant showed that the previous year was no fluke as he posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 games, although his W-L record took a hit. Those numbers, combined with elbow injuries to Mikolas and Hudson, have enabled Gant to get a shot at starting. And in his first effort he didn't disappoint, throwing four scoreless innings in a Cards win over Miami last Tuesday. Normally a second start against a team like the Nats for someone like Gant might be concerning, but Washington seems to be in total disarray right now with a 1-5 record after a late start to its season due to COVID. The Nats are also 17-40 in their last 57 trips to St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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04-11-21 | Reds -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Roughly 10 games into the MLB season, there have been some surprising performances. But none have been more surprising than that of the Cincinnati Reds. After an off-season that saw their best player -- pitcher Trevor Bauer -- sign a free agent contract with the Dodgers, most people figured that 2021 would be a rebuilding year at best. And it still could be. But right now the Reds are sitting alone in first place in the NL Central with a 6-2 record. Tonight will be the rubber game in this three-game set with the D-Backs. And RH Jose DeLeon will get his second start for the Reds after a solid outing first time out in a Reds win over the Pirates last Monday. RH Luke Weaver also gets his second Arizona start of 2021. Once a promising prospect with the Cards, Weaver saw things completely unravel last season with the D-Backs as he went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts. Despite the loss last night, Cincy is 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Arizona. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-21 | Phillies +128 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After four MLB seasons where his performance as a starting pitcher ranged from poor to average, there were signs that RH Zach Eflin had turned a corner in the shortened 2020 campaign. In 11 games last season (10 starts), the 27-year-old posted career bests in ERA (3.97), WHIP (1.27), K rate (10.7) and K:BB ratio (4.67). In his only start so far in 2021, Eflin continued to shine, throwing seven sparkling innings, allowing one run on four hits with eight Ks and one walk. Eflin tries to keep it going tonight in his 11th career start against the Braves. And despite his lean early years in the league, Eflin is 5-3 with a nice 3.22 ERA vs. a very good Atlanta team in those 10 starts covering 58 2/3 innings. And in four previous starts here at Sun Trust Park, Eflin is 3-1. Despite their loss here last night, the Phillies are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Braves. More importantly, the Phillies are 8-1 in Eflin's last nine starts going back to August 18, 2020. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Nobody knew how the Astros would perform this season, being that they will face hostile fans at virtually every road venue since they were caught in a cheating scandal. But so far, this Houston team seems to have used the adversity to its advantage, getting off to a 6-2 start. And while the road fans may not be very friendly to them, the 'Stros will be greeted with nothing but love here at Minute Maid Park this season. RH Jose Urquidy didn't start pitching for the 'Stros until 2019 so he has been somewhat immune to the controversy and that's probably fine with him. More importantly, the 24-year-old is a very talented player with a bright future. After a very solid rookie season, Urquidy landed a full-time rotation spot in the shortened 2020 season and responded with a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings. The A's may have taken game one of this series last night, but they are still 1-6 in the last seven meetings with Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-09-21 | Nationals v. Dodgers -275 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. When L.A. signed free agent Trevor Bauer this year it added one of the top arms in the game to an already dangerous roster. Almost as important however is that the addition of the NL Cy Young winner also takes some of the pressure off the younger studs on the Dodgers' deep pitching staff -- most notably Julio Urias and today's starter, RHP Walker Buehler. Buehler had a solid first start, throwing six quality innings in a Dodger win over Colorado. That start was in hitter-friendly Denver, so there's no doubt Buehler is looking forward to his 2021 home debut this afternoon in the Dodgers' home opener. It comes against a team that has had many challenges even though the season is only eight days old. The Nats' opening series with the Mets was postponed due to COVID. And they dropped two of three to the Braves this week as the rust was evident. The Dodgers are 18-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 22 starts when favored -200 (or higher), and 119-52 (+32 games on the moneyline) their last 171 vs. righties. Meanwhile, Joe Ross has not delivered in the underdog role (9-18, minus 7 games on the moneyline). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-09-21 | Yankees -135 v. Rays | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Rays could pick a starter to face on their season home opener, they likely would not choose RH Corey Kluber. Sure, the veteran -- who is beginning his first season with the Yankees after playing for the Rangers in 2020 -- is not the pitcher he was back in his Cy Young days. But the 34-year-old is still dangerous and capable of giving his team six+ quality innings every five days. More importantly, Kluber is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Tampa covering 64 innings. Kluber got his Yankee career off to a solid start, throwing four innings while allowing one ER on five hits with five K's against the Jays last Saturday. Once a crafty southpaw who could get guys out with his off-speed pitches, 41-year-old Rich Hill is now on the downside of his career and could have a tough time in his first season in Tampa. New York is 11-4 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 15 coming off a one-run loss to a division rival. Take the Yanks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -150 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Phillies got their season off to a 4-0 start, sweeping the Braves in three games and then taking the first of this series on Monday, despite the presence of Jacob deGrom on the mound for New York. The Phils finally lost on Tuesday, but they come back this afternoon with their ace, RHP Aaron Nola. The 27-year-old was in mid-season form in his first start last Thursday against Atlanta, throwing 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing two runs on six hits with six Ks and no walks. And if there's one thing Nola likes, it's starting games against the Mets. In 16 starts vs. New York, Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA, including 114 strikeouts and only 75 hits in just over 95 innings. Throughout his MLB career, Nola has loved pitching in his home park. In 72 starts here at Citizens Bank, Nola is 33-17 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 455 2/3 innings (vs. 25-23 with a 4.02 ERA in 68 starts elsewhere). The Mets are also a woeful 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog of at least +125. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. Two seasons ago, Hyun Jin Ryu had a ridiculous season with the L.A. Dodgers, almost winning the NL Cy Young award while leading his team to yet another NL West Division title. Ryu signed with the Jays as a free agent in December of that year and proceeded to have another outstanding, albeit shortened, campaign in 2020 with Toronto. Now with an even better team around him, and a full season with which to work, Ryu may be poised to do with the Jays what he did with the Dodgers. His first start of 2021 was solid (5 1/3 IP; 2 ER; 5 Ks; 0 BBs) and he looks to follow that up this afternoon with another good outing. Ryu's career record in day games is even more dominant than his overall numbers. In 39 daytime starts covering 227 innings, the veteran LHP is 21-9 with a 2.66 ERA with 222 strikeouts and only 40 walks. And Ryu's teams are 10-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 12 daytime starts. Take the Blue Jays. |
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04-07-21 | Twins -165 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins are my pick this season (at 22-1 odds) to win the World Series, so we will no doubt be on the Twins often this season. Today, we'll back Minnesota's veteran righty, Kenta Maeda. In his first start of the season, Maeda was effective, as he gave up just 1 run in 4 1-3 innings vs. the Brewers. Here, Maeda will be matched-up against the Detroit Tigers' Matt Boyd. This is a favorable spot for Minnesota, as Detroit is a horrible 25-64 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog, while Maeda's teams are 36-19 (+ 8 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Twins. |
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04-06-21 | Rays -145 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. People in Pittsburgh lament the fact that the Pirates let Gerrit Cole go to the Yankees via free agency. But a much bigger gaffe by the Bucs was a year earlier when they traded Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and uber-prospect Shane Baz to Tampa for Chris Archer. We still have no idea what the Pirates thought they were going to do with Archer but sure as heck know what the Rays have been able to do with Glasnow and Meadows. Tonight, the 6'8", 27-year-old RHP gets his second start after a stellar 2021 debut last Thursday in which he threw six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in a 1-0 Tampa win over the Marlins. The Sox bounced back last night in game one of this series (after being swept by the Orioles) but this team has more question marks at this point than it does answers. And last year the Rays gave the Sox all kinds of trouble, taking seven of the 10 meetings. The Rays are 12-3 (+9 games on the moneyline) in Glasnow's last 15 road starts. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-27-20 | Rays +129 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This selection might be a surprise to many, given we had the Dodgers (at 4-1 odds) as our preseason pick to win the World Series. But faithful followers know I'll always follow the numbers, and it's hard to bypass Tampa as an underdog tonight. The Dodgers really needed a win in Game 5 behind Clayton Kershaw, and they got it. Now they go into Game 6 tonight knowing that if they lose, they will still have RH ace Walker Buehler -- who was completely dominant in Game 3 -- available to start a Game 7. They also likely will not use Julio Urias tonight so they can have their brilliant young southpaw available out of the bullpen, if needed, tomorrow. So going opposite LH ace Blake Snell of the Rays tonight will be an assortment of pitchers beginning with RH Tony Gonsolin. If they're to have a chance tonight, the Dodgers will need Gonsolin to step up. After a regular season in which he posted a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts), Gonsolin has logged just an 0-2 record and 9.39 ERA in three post-season appearances. After struggling against the Yankees, Snell has settled down and pitched very well in the ALCS, as well as in his only World Series start vs. L.A. in Game 2, a 6-4 Tampa victory. That Game 2 was six days ago, so Snell and Gonsolin will be pitching with an extra day of rest. That bodes well for Tampa tonight, as it's 36-19 (+11 games on the moneyline) behind Snell, when the southpaw was working with an extra day or two of rest (but a poor 26-33 otherwise (minus 12 games on the moneyline)). The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable vs. righties over the last three seasons, but NOT against lefties (91-62, minus 11 games on the moneyline). In contrast, the Rays have been VERY profitable vs. righties (39-16, +19 games on the moneyline), but not against lefties (12-12, minus 5 games). The Dodgers are 3-0 in this World Series in games started by Tampa righties, but 0-2 in the games started by Tampa southpaws. Take the Rays to win Game 6. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  |
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10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took Game 1 behind some solid starting pitching from LH ace Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of timely hitting by just about everyone in the lineup. That's the good news for L.A. The not-so-good news is that Tampa has its LH ace -- Blake Snell -- ready to go tonight while Los Angeles has...Tony Gonsolin. Advantage Tampa. Snell will be making his first-ever World Series start. But he will be up to the task, as the former Cy Young Award Winner went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 3.50 K:BB ratio in 11 regular season starts, covering 50 innings. And while those numbers may not match his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell definitely showed that he's back. In his career, Snell is 8-4 with a 2.07 ERA in 16 inter-league starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The World Series is set as the Rays and Dodgers prepare to face for their first-ever post-season clash. This finals will look more like traditional seven-game series than the Championship Series did as it will follow a 2-3-2 format with one-day breaks after Games 2 and 5. Game 1 will start with RH Tyler Glasnow opposite LH Clayton Kershaw. After a very strong regular season, Glasnow has struggled a bit in the playoffs. Over four starts, Glasnow has a winning record at 2-1, but his ERA is a bit ugly at 4.66. In 13 1/3 innings, he's allowed 11 hits and seven walks, for a WHIP of 1.35. And Glasnow will have his hands full with a very good Dodgers line-up. This will be his first-ever start vs. L.A. However, in three previous relief appearances vs. the Dodgers, Glasnow has allowed six runs in four innings with five hits and four walks -- a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kershaw has started twice against the Rays in his career, and won each start (1.88 career ERA; 0.83 WHIP). Last season, he struck out eight Rays over 6 1-3 innings, and allowed just seven baserunners and two runs. The Dodgers are 121-46 (+28 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced -150 (or higher). And Tampa is a pedestrian 11-10 this season (minus 5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Braves +122 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. A few days ago, it didn't appear that either of the League Championships would go to seven games. But here we are with the Braves and Dodgers about to play the ultimate rubber game, while the Astros and Rays did the same last night. I think it's safe to say that no post-season starter has been as hot as Braves rookie RH Ian Anderson. Most people had never even heard of the 22-year-old at the start of the season, but now Anderson is on the biggest stage which baseball has, with a chance to get the Braves into the World Series. Anderson's numbers of late have been mind-boggling. In three post-season starts, covering 15 2/3 innings, Anderson has yet to allow a run. He's surrendered just six hits, with 22 strikeouts, while going 2-0. He did issue five bases on balls against the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, but it didn't matter as Anderson allowed just one hit over four innings. If the Dodgers can't do what no other team has yet been able to -- solve Anderson and his fastball/change-up combination -- then they will once again fall short of winning their first title since 1988. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Braves +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a bullpen game on Friday that was won by the Dodgers, we're back to the top of the rotations for both of these teams. And while RH starter Walker Buehler has been very good for L.A., LH Max Fried has been on another level for Atlanta. After a regular season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, Fried has continued to be one of the MVPs for the Braves in the post-season. Even though he stumbled in a start vs. the Marlins, the Braves have still won all three of his 2020 playoff outings coming into this afternoon, including Game 1 of this series opposite Buehler. In that start, the 26-year-old Atlanta ace did everything except register the victory, allowing just one run on four hits in six innings with nine strikeouts. The Braves won that one with four runs in the top of the ninth. Dating back to the 2019 All-Star Break, the Braves are 23-3 in Fried's last 26 starts, including a perfect 4-0 as an underdog! Fried goes on regular (4 days) rest this afternoon, and he is a stellar 13-4 (.765) in 23 starts in those situations. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +201 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 201 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, we had our 5* Baseball Game of the Year on the Dodgers. And, for faithful followers, it wasn't much of a surprise, given I tabbed the Dodgers as my preseason pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the World Series. But just because I picked Los Angeles to win the World Series doesn't mean I will blindly take them every game (although I did take my preseason NHL pick -- the Tampa Bay Lightning -- in all 22 of their Playoff games this past season, and that worked out perfectly). But my confidence level on the Lightning was off the charts, and I don't have the same level of confidence with this Dodgers club. Certainly, they're the best team. But the Braves, Tampa Bay Rays and, yes, even the 35-35 Houston Astros, are good enough to win the World Series. If you're the Braves, you have no choice but to act like Wednesday's Game 3 never happened. And for those who saw the first inning, it was likely something which will not be seen again, as LA set an MLB post-season record by scoring 11 runs in the top of the 1st inning to put the game out of reach soon after the National Anthem had concluded. So, a case of amnesia is really the only way for Atlanta to plow forward. And tonight it will go with another one of its "young guns" in 22-year-old RHP Bryse Wilson. In his three seasons in the Majors, Wilson has split his pitching time almost evenly between starting and relieving but he has done by far his best work as a starter. In seven starts covering 30 2/3 innings, Wilson is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA (vs. 9.75 in eight relief appearances). Despite their big win on Wednesday, the Dodgers are still just 1-4 in their last five games vs. NL East teams. And Kershaw's post-season record is pedestrian-at-best (11-11, 4.23 ERA, 34 appearances), including a 3-5 record, with a 4.61 ERA, in 13 National League Championship Series appearances. Atlanta has enough offensive talent to win on any day, and surely against an injury-hampered Kershaw. We'll take the Braves as a massive underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros +132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 132 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. After starting two pitchers with a combined nine post-season starts between them in Games 1 and 2 of this series (McCullers Jr. and Urquidy), the Astros will turn to a veteran pitcher with double that number. 36-year-old Zack Greinke has 18 career post-season starts and, although his playoff numbers don't exactly jump off the page at you, there's nobody Houston would rather have on the hill being down 3-0 in this series. Greinke is a 200+ game winner with a career ERA of 3.37. And although his best years may be behind him, the veteran just knows how to win. The Rays will go with RHP Tyler Glasnow who started the Game 5 victory against the Yankees last Friday. But with no off days in these series, Glasnow will be going on four days of rest and he is 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 17 starts with four days off (vs. 9-4, with a 3.27 ERA, in 21 starts with five days off). The Astros are also 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their two previous games. Take Houston as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves took a 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers on Tuesday behind the other-worldly pitching of their rookie, Ian Anderson. That's the headline. But the rest of the story is that L.A. came back from a 7-0 deficit and had the winning run 90 feet away in the bottom of the ninth. And that ability to finally put some significant runs on the board could set the tone going forward. The Dodgers will put LHP Julio Urias on the mound tonight and you could argue that the 23-year-old Mexican has been their most effective playoff pitcher so far. In two appearances (one vs. the Brewers and one vs. the Padres) Urias has yet to allow an earned run in eight innings, surrendering just four hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk. The Braves' RHP Kyle Wright has also not allowed a run so far in the playoffs, although his one appearance was against the Marlins so this will be a much tougher spot for the 25-year-old. And in the regular season, Wright was 2-4, with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Even worse, his career ERA is 6.22, with a 1.66 WHIP. So, his six scoreless innings vs. Miami last week were somewhat of an anomaly when you look at his entire career, or even just his 2020 season. The Dodgers are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss, and 100% perfect (4-0) this season off back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, the Braves under-performed on offense vs. lefty starters this season, as they averaged just 4.5 runs, and hit just .238 (compared to 5.9 runs per game, and .269 vs. righty starters). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 2 of the ALCS was another close pitching duel for the most part, but once again the Rays were victorious. The relief pitching of the Rays came through, even though Nick Anderson loaded the bases with Astros in the ninth inning for a little drama. With their backs against the wall, the 'Stros will turn to 25-year-old Jose Urquidy for Game 3 tonight. The Mexican RH missed over a month of the regular season with an injury. But once he was activated on September 5, Urquidy was very effective, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over five starts covering just under 30 innings. If he can keep the 'Stros in this series tonight then they know they have veteran Zack Greinke waiting in the wings for Game 4. Once again the 'Stros are a slight underdog in this game, but that's okay as they are 8-2 in their last 10 post-season games as a dog. Houston will be the home team tonight and Tampa is also 1-6 in the last seven meetings as the visitors. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-20 | Astros +123 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. If Game 1 was any indication, this is going to be one heck of a series. The Rays took a 2-1 victory Sunday night in a game that was dominated by pitching. After an outstanding performance by LH Framber Valdez, the 'Stros will turn to RH Lance McCullers this afternoon, With the Rays having used normal #2 starter Tyler Glasnow on Friday against New York, they will turn to veteran RH Charlie Morton today. After back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2018 and 2019, Morton struggled through much of this shortened 2020 season, going just 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in nine starts covering 38 innings. Morton has post-season experience with the club the Rays are facing today. Unfortunately, Morton has struggled against his former team, with a 4-6 record, and a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts, covering 57 1/3 innings. The other problem for Morton is that, although for his career he is 74-55 (.574) with a 3.78 ERA under the lights, he is just 19-34 (.358) with a 4.84 number in daytime starts. Meanwhile, the Astros are 85-43 (+13 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves. It's not surprising that the Braves are up 2-0 on the Marlins in this series. They are heavily favored to advance to the NL Championship. This is why they feel confident in putting Kyle Wright on the mound today to start Game 3. Wright is a third-year pitcher with a career record of 2-7 and an ERA of 6.22 through 19 appearances (12 starts). Wright did slightly better in 2002, going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts but he got knocked around pretty good in two consecutive starts against the Marlins. In those two starts, Wright allowed eight runs on nine hits in seven innings and the Braves were out-scored by a combined 16-2. Miami will give 22-year-old rookie RHP Sixto Sanchez his second shot at playoff action as he gets the ball this afternoon. Sanchez went 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven starts in 2020 and he held the Cubs scoreless over five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Atlanta is 0-5 in Wright's last five starts vs. winning teams. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | Padres +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In this much-anticipated match-up of NL West power houses, the Dodgers drew first blood on Tuesday, taking a 5-1 victory at Globe Life Field. Tonight for Game 2, L.A. will use its best lefthanded weapon of the past 30+ years as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for his 27th playoff start. But the post-season hasn't always been kind to the veteran southpaw as Kershaw actually has a losing record in the playoffs (10-11) and his 4.22 ERA is almost two runs higher than the 2.43 number he's put up during the regular season. Sure Kershaw has had a lot of success in his career against the Pads (2.03 career ERA), but he's never faced them in the post-season and it's safe to say this is the best San Diego lineup he's seen since he came into the league 12 years ago. Meanwhile, Zach Davies has had similar success vs. the Dodgers, as his career ERA vs. L.A. is 2.37, with a 1.05 WHIP. This an advantageous situation for the Padres who are 11-4 in their last 15 games in double-revenge situations. Take San Diego as a big underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees -120 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. After getting blown out in Game 1 on Monday, the Rays needed to come back strong on Tuesday against the resurgent New York offense and pitching. That's exactly what Tampa did, taking Game 2 by a 7-5 final. Tonight is the Yanks opportunity to grab the lead back in what promises to be a close and tough three-of-five series. Veteran RH Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for New York and he'll be looking to atone for a sub-par performance in the Wild Card Series against Cleveland (4 IP; 6 ER). The poor start against the Tribe notwithstanding, Tanaka has been a beast in the post-season throughout his career. In nine lifetime playoff starts, the 31-year-old is 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 50 innings. Perhaps more important is that Tanaka has faced the Rays 21 times (all starts) and he is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP against them in just over 130 innings. And Tanaka should enjoy his first career start in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | A's +110 v. Astros | Top | 9-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros were not only the last American League Team to make it into the post-season (they locked down their spot with just two days to go in the regular season). They were also the only AL club to make it in with a losing record. So, naturally, people were thinking "last in, first out," and you can hardly blame them. But here we are, two games into the second round, and Houston has yet to lose a game (4-0). And the 'Stros are just one win away from a most unlikely appearance in the LCS. The A's haven't had much of an answer through two games but you know they will pull out all the stops this afternoon. So, it's fitting that they'll send their top rookie pitcher to the mound in LH Jesus Luzardo. The just-turned-23-year-old had a forgettable start in the Wild Card series against the White Sox, so he's looking for a little redemption this afternoon in a must-win situation. Luzardo is unbeaten in six daytime games (three starts) going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros drew first blood in this series, taking Game 1 against the A's on Monday, putting up ten runs in the process. Houston is now 3-0 in the playoffs and a season that's been the weirdest in history just keeps getting weirder. LHP Sean Manaea may not have been the A's best starter over the course of the season as evidenced by his 4-3 record and 4.50 ERA in 11 starts. But he was their best starter in the second half of the short campaign. After a disastrous beginning which saw Manaea to 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA after four starts covering 15 innings the 28-year-old southpaw really settled down. Through his last seven starts, Manaea didn't allow more than three ER (allowing just one four times) and he cut that 9.00 ERA in half. Most important is that the A's went 6-1 in those. He didn't get a start in the Wild Card series so this is Manaea's first action in 13 days, but he has some serious redemption on his mind nonetheless. His only previous playoff start was an ugly loss to the Rays last season. The A's are 15-3 in Manaea's last 18 daytime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals +113 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. Expectations were sky-high for Cards' RHP Jack Flaherty heading into the season, with some believing that the 24-year-old would be right in the middle of the Cy Young discussions. But after a breakout 2019 campaign in which he finished fourth in the voting for the aforementioned pitching honor, Flaherty laid a big egg in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In nine starts, Flaherty went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA. And although his strikeout rate remained basically unchanged, his walk rate increased dramatically to a career-worst 3.6 per nine IP. But all of that -- or a great chunk of it anyway -- will be forgotten if Flaherty can lead his team to victory tonight in the Wild Card finale. Flaherty didn't face San Diego in 2020, but last season he threw five shutout innings in his only start against the Pads (his second overall start of 2019). The Cards are 18-11 this season (+10 games on the moneyline), and 101-78 (+16 games on the moneyline) their last 179 off a loss, while the Padres are 75-94 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a win, and 40-49 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, when priced from +125 to -125. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. The 5th-seeded Cards pulled off a mild upset over the 4th-seeded Padres on Wednesday, taking a 7-4 win and now are just one win away from advancing to the quarterfinals. With Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger not eligible to play this round, the Padres will go with RHP and former Milwaukee Brewer Zach Davies. The Brewers are also a playoff team, but Davies must be thrilled to be in San Diego, where it would appear there will be lots of post-season games in his future if he can negotiate a long-term contract at some point. The 27-year-old followed up a solid 2019 campaign with an ever better 2020, going 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a full load of 12 starts covering just over 69 innings. One reason it would be wise for him to stay in San Diego is his record at Petco Park. In nine starts here, Davies is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 53 innings. Davies' teams are also 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | White Sox -105 v. A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Oakland. The White Sox will start rookie Dane Dunning, while Oakland will hand the ball to Michael Fiers. Also under consideration for the A's was southpaw Sean Manaea who, in my opinion, is a better pitcher than Fiers. But the A's were concerned about Chicago's 15-0 record this season vs. lefty starters, so they opted for the righty, Fiers, instead. I believe that was a mistake. Fiers' ERA this season is 4.58, but at home, it balloons to 5.81. Dunning's ERA is a nice 3.97, with a solid WHIP of 1.11. And in his lone daytime start this season, he threw five scoreless innings vs. the Royals, in a 5-2 ChiSox win. The bottom line is that, regardless of the starter, the A's are a less potent offensive team. Oakland's hitting just .223 on the season, compared to .260 for Chicago. And its runs per game is 0.6 less (but 1.1 runs per game in daytime affairs). Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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