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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-07-21 | A's +138 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. Sean Manaea has never won a pitching award, never finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting, and never been selected to an All Star Game. This season will likely be no different. But all Manaea keeps doing is posting quality campaigns. In fact, in all but his first season (2016), the now-29-year-old southpaw has registered winning records and so far this season, it's more of the same. In 17 starts, Manaea is 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA in 97 2/3 innings and he has two complete game shutouts to his credit (although one of them was a seven-inning game). This will be Manaea's fourth start of the season against the Astros and the A's have won two of the three so far -- 6-2 on April 9 and 6-5 on May 18. For his career, Manaea is 2-2 with a microscopic 1.85 ERA in seven starts here at Minute Maid Park covering 39 innings. The A's are also 8-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Manaea's last 10 nighttime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Blue Jays -200 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Two years ago as a member of the Dodgers, Hyun Jin Ryu made the NL All Star team and almost won the NL Cy Young. Last season -- his first with the Blue Jays -- Ryu again put up eye-popping numbers, and finished third in the AL Cy Young race. But he was an All Star snub, somehow left off the roster. Whether or not you think Ryu is a snub again this year is certainly more debatable as the veteran LHP finished the first half 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts. Tonight will mark Ryu's third start vs. Baltimore out of his last four trips to the mound and that's likely just fine with him as he tends to dominate the Birds whenever facing them. And when Ryu doesn't have his best stuff, his offense really shows up to bail him out. The Blue Jays have won all four of Ryu's starts vs. the O's since he joined them at the beginning of the shortened 2020 season, while the Birds' Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.34 ERA) has dropped his last eight decisions. Finally, the Blue Jays are 17-5 vs. American League pitchers with an ERA north of 5.90, while Baltimore is 13-46 vs. AL Pitchers with an ERA better than 3.70. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Reds -138 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Reds over the Kansas City Royals. RHP Sonny Gray will get the start for the Reds this afternoon, and he has a super 2.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Royals. Indeed, he's won each of his last three vs. KC, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 19 innings. These two teams are going in opposite directions, as the Reds are 5-1 their last six, while the Royals have dropped 23 of their last 29. With KC a wallet-busting 15-38 when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175, as well as 2-6 in Brady Singer's daytime starts, we'll take the Reds and Gray this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Nationals v. Padres -182 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. The Padres lost at home to Washington last night, 7-5, as Jon Lester outdueled Joe Musgrove. It lowered San Diego's home record this season to 30-16 (including 9-2 its last 11). Tonight, Padres southpaw, Ryan Weathers, will take the mound for his 10th start (and 16th appearance) of the season. For the season, Weathers has a 3-2 record, with a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .217 against him. The Nationals are 10-14 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres have won all three of Weathers' starts as a home favorite. Washington will start either Paolo Espino or Erick Fedde. Regardless of which hurler takes the mound for the Nats, we'll take the homestanding Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -130 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Heading into this season, nobody would blame you if you said that veteran RH Johnny Cueto was on the downside of his career and unlikely to put up numbers reflective of the #2 or 3 starter that he used to be. After all, the now-35-year-old posted 1-2 record with a 5.06 ERA followed by 2-3 and 5.40 the last two seasons. But like his team -- the Giants -- Cueto is surprising just about everyone this season with a 6-4 record and 4.00 ERA in 13 starts covering 72 innings. In fact, just about all of Cueto's numbers are improved over 2019 and 2020, including a 1.8 walk rate and a 4.14 K:BB ratio. Start number 14 will come tonight against a team that Cueto is very familiar with from his time in the NL Central with the Reds. Cueto likes his home cooking as in 52 starts here at AT&T Park, he is 21-14 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in just under 320 innings. The Giants are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cueto's last seven starts as a home favorite. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels +103 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 103 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Boston Red Sox. This might be the best match-up in baseball this week, as it features two All Stars on the mound, with Shohei Ohtani vs. Nathan Eovaldi. We'll take Anaheim at home, as Eovaldi has a career 4.72 ERA and 1.69 WHIP vs. the Angels. He faced Anaheim in Boston earlier this season, and was hit hard in a 6-5 loss. Tonight, the key factor for me is that Ohtani will be pitching with an extra day of rest. And the Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's career when he has pitched with an extra day or two of rest. He also has a 1.73 ERA in seven home starts this season. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Dodgers -129 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins. Los Angeles' nine-game win streak was snapped last night, but I love it to start a new win streak this evening. Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers tonight, and he's been a model of consistency. Los Angeles has won each of his last five starts and -- importantly -- he's given up exactly one run in each of his last six starts. For the season, Gonsolin's ERA is a solid 2.77, and LA is 4-0 this year behind him when priced from -125 to -175. Moreover, LA is 95-52 its last 147 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Marlins are 5-12 as a home underdog in his starts. Take Los Angeles. |
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07-06-21 | Blue Jays -177 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -177 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Steven Matz will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays -- his first career start vs. the Orioles -- while Spenser Watkins will toe the rubber for the Birds in his first career start. Matz has done his best work away from home (i.e., away from the hitter-friendly parks in Buffalo and Dunedin) this year, as he is 6-1 on the road, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Blue Jays have done exceptionally well here at Camden Yards over the few years, as they've won eight of the last nine. Meanwhile, the Orioles have struggled against lefties, with a 9-19 record (minus 8 games on the moneyline) this season, and a 37-66 record (minus 10.4 games on the moneyline) over the last three seasons. Watkins, a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with over 600 innings, will be making his 2nd appearance in the Majors after throwing a scoreless inning against the Angels last week in his MLB debut. For AAA Norfolk this season, he had a 3.58 ERA, with a 1.12 WHIP and a 27:11 strikeout/walk ratio over 32 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, his HR/fly ball rate has been high over his last few Minor League seasons (13.33%; 20.6%), which doesn't bode well for him tonight against the homer-happy Blue Jays. Take Toronto. |
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07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -135 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. Southpaw pitcher Matt Moore burst on the MLB scene as a 22-year-old rookie with the Tampa Bay Rays 10 years ago. Moore proceeded to have three-plus very good seasons with the Rays through an injury-riddled 2014 campaign, including a 17-4 season in 2013 that got him some Cy Young votes. Unfortunately, Moore has never been able to duplicate those early years since being traded to the Giants in 2016 and he now finds himself a spot starter with the Phillies. Moore will get his fifth start of the season tonight against the Cubs and RHP Zach Davies. Davies came to the Cubs from the Padres as part of the Yu Darvish deal back in December and while not a dominating starter by anyone's measure, Davies has helped contribute this season on many occasions. The Cubs are 6-2 in Davies' home games this season and his last two teams (the Cubs and Padres) are a combined 20-9 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Davies last 29 home starts. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-05-21 | Brewers v. Mets +138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 138 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers. The red-hot Brewers come into Queens tonight for the first of three games against the Mets. The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games and it was the Pirates of all teams who stopped Milwaukee's winning streak at 11 games on Sunday. It may seem like a tough situation for young Tylor Megill to get his first MLB victory but there are at least a couple of reasons to like the Mets tonight. First is the fact that the home team has dominated this series lately as the hosts have taken each of the last four meetings and seven of the last nine going back to May of 2018. Second, despite Megill's ERA of 4.82, the 25-year-old rookie RHP has a solid 1.29 WHIP and has struck out almost 12 batters per nine innings, something that may serve him very well against the free-swinging Milwaukee line-up tonight. The Mets are 24-11 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 home games and 5-1 in their last six games vs. teams from the NL Central. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-04-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Texas. The Mariners continue to defy preseason expectations, as they are 44-40 on the season, and just 3 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for a wild card berth. Chris Flexen has been a big part of the M's success this season, as he is 6-3 in 14 starts, with a nice 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's also 3-0 in his career vs. the Rangers, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Mike Foltynewicz has had a comparatively-disappointing campaign for Texas, as he has an ERA north of five runs (5.17), with a 1.34 WHIP. Not surprisingly, his W/L record is under water, at 2-7. And his teams are 0-3 in his three starts vs. Seattle. Finally, the Rangers are a horrid 19-59 (minus 31.3 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. division foes, and 43-89 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox +100 v. A's | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Oakland A's. The Red Sox's 8-game win streak was snapped last night, in extra innings, by Oakland. But with the Red Sox being installed as a slight underdog in this game, we'll take them to bounce back this afternoon. Indeed, Boston is 53-34 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and is 24-14 in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125 (while Oakland is 19-20). The Red Sox are also 35-20 vs. righties this season (while Oakland is just 27-24 vs. righties). Take Boston. |
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07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA of 3.98 and having allowed a league-high 20 home runs, RHP Kyle Hendricks is leading the NL with 10 victories so far. Hendricks doesn't throw particularly hard but is an innings-eater who keeps hitters off-balance with his stuff. And he obviously gets the runs when he needs them. The Cubs' ace will get his 17th start this afternoon as he tries to prevent a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds. In fact the Cubs come into tonight having lost eight in a row so it will be up to Hendricks -- to a large extent -- to stop the bleeding. Hendricks loves these daytime affairs as he is 31-20 (.608) with a 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 78 starts under the sun covering 466 innings (while Cincy is 47-67 in day games). Today will be his first start of the season vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine starts going back to May 16. And they're averaging 5.5 runs per game, while batting .258, when their opponent starts a lefty. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-03-21 | Padres -150 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. While many starters begin to slow down when they get into their mid-30s, Padres veteran RHP Yu Darvish just keeps on going. Darvish is almost 35 and he's been in the league now for over 10 years but his stuff appears to be just as dominating as ever. After leading the league with eight wins in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Darvish is already 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts covering 96 innings in 2021. His strikeout numbers have not diminished either as Darvish is punching out guys at a rate of 11 per nine innings (the same rate he had in 2020). Start number 17 comes against a Phillies team that Darvish has had success against. In four career starts vs. Philly, Darvish is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in just over 25 innings. And his ERA during the day is a half-run lower than it is at night (3.04 in 59 starts vs. 3.53 in 139 night starts). The Pads are 12-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last 14 starts as a favorite. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona. It's awfully difficult to make a case for the Diamondbacks, who are baseball's worst team. They did win, 5-3, yesterday against the Giants, but they've not won two in a row since May 10-11. And since May 11, they've gone 6-41. Southpaw Alex Wood will get the start for Gabe Kapler's Giants, and he is 6-3, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. He's made one start already vs. Arizona (a 5-2 win), and he held the D-Backs to 2 runs over 6 innings, while striking out 7, and only allowing 5 baserunners. Tonight, Wood will face off against Zac Gallen, who made one start earlier this season against the Giants (a 10-3 loss). The Diamondbacks have dropped each of Gallen's last five starts, and are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings vs. San Francisco. Even worse: Gallen's teams are 1-8 at home in his career in full (9+ innings) games with an over/under less than 9 runs. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-21 | Mets -161 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves destroyed the Mets, 20-2, last night. How does New York respond? Well, for starters, the Mets will send the best pitcher on the planet to the mound. Looking at RH Jacob deGrom's 0.69 ERA in 13 starts, 0.53 WHIP and 11.1 K:BB ratio, you have to wonder how he ever lost two games. He'll go back out there tonight for start number 14 against a team which he has a career 1.88 ERA. Yes, that number is pretty high compared to what deGrom has done this season, but it's still pretty impressive when you consider the firepower that the Braves have had in their lineup in recent years. Even better: deGrom has yet to allow an earned run on the road this season (in 25 innings pitched), and his teams are 37-21 (+6.2 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite with him on the mound in his career. The Braves will go with young RH Ian Anderson tonight. The 23-year-old RH has put up some solid numbers in this -- his second season. But Anderson is still several notches below the level of deGrom as are almost all MLB starters. Even with the loss last night, the Mets are still 4-2 in the last six meetings in Atlanta and 3-0 in deGrom's last three vs. the Braves. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-29-21 | Giants +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, the Dodgers won their fourth in a row, with a 3-2 nail-biter over the Giants. The key to the game was that the Giants were 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position. That L.A. victory closed the gap to 2.5 games in the National League West division. Tonight, the mound opponents will be Walker Buehler for the Dodgers vs. Kevin Gausman for the Giants. Pitching match-ups don't get much better than this, as Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) is having the best season for anyone not named deGrom, while Buehler ranks 15th with a 2.51 ERA. We'll take Gausman as an underdog, as the Giants are 20-13 as a dog this season (+13.3 games on the moneyline), including a perfect 5-0 when Gausman has been the starter. One of those underdog starts was here, in Chavez Ravine, back on May 30. The Giants were +155, and won 5-4, behind six shutout innings from Gausman. Buehler has also made one start here, at home vs. San Francisco this season, and the Giants won that game, 8-5, as a +171 underdog. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-28-21 | Angels v. Yankees -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels snapped their five-game losing streak yesterday, with a 6-4 win over the Rays. But I look for their success to be short-lived, as they've had scant success vs. winning teams, as they're 60-97 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) their last 157. Michael King will get the start tonight for the Yankees, and he comes into this game off back-to-back starts won by the Yankees (against Kansas City and Toronto). We played on the Yankees in that 6-5 victory vs. KC, and will play on King again tonight. His mound opponent will be RHP Dylan Bundy, who has a 6.68 ERA this season, and a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts. He also is 2-6 in his career vs. New York, with a 6.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (including an 8.05 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Yankee Stadium). Finally, when installed as an underdog, Bundy's teams have gone 24-46 (minus 14.7 games on the moneyline) in his career. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. When the Yankees signed free agent RH pitcher Gerrit Cole at the end of 2019 to a record contract, they were hoping for some serious Cy Young/MVP type numbers. So far the New York brass and fans have not been disappointed. Cole has delivered in pinstripes and the Yankees are hoping he will continue to do so for years to come. Now if only the Yanks could add another ace or two to the rotation. In 15 starts this season, Cole is 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and league-leading 8.20 K:BB ratio. Cole is hoping for win #9 today against New York's biggest rival and, given his numbers against the Sox, he should get it. In six starts vs. Boston, Cole is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 39 strikeouts and five walks in 35 innings. The Yankees are also 8-2 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cole's last 10 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -175. And Cole's teams, in his career, are 33-10 in that price range on the road. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrible 11-25 (minus 11.5 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-26-21 | A's +111 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the San Francisco Giants. Based on the way these two Bay Area rivals are playing, would anyone be surprised if they met in the World Series for the first time since Oakland swept the Giants four-games-to-none in 1989? Tonight's match-up features SF's southpaw, Alex Wood vs. righty Frankie Montas of the A's. We'll take the underdog A's tonight, as Oakland is 29-22 (+14 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 or less. And it's 11-2 this season on the road vs. lefty starters. Alex Wood has made three career starts vs. Oakland, but has had scant success, as he's 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. And Wood's ERA over his last four starts is a horrid 8.50, with a 1.61 WHIP. Take the underdog A's tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-21 | Yankees +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Jordan Montgomery is very quietly putting together a nice season for the Yankees and that's very much appreciated by a team that could use all the pitching help it can get. Of course it doesn't hurt that the 28-year-old Montgomery is a southpaw with plenty of experience against all of the Division opponents in the AL East. And that includes tonight's opponent as Montgomery is 1-0 with a 4.13 ERA in his six career starts covering 28 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. More important is the fact that Montgomery faced the Red Sox three times last season -- his last starts vs. Boston coming into tonight -- and the Yankees are 3-0 in those games. And in Montgomery's last six starts going back to May 21, the Yankees are 6-0 and they're a perfect 9-0 in Montgomery's last nine nighttime starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, the Dodgers have called upon swing man Tony Gonsolin to start games for them. Last season, Gonsolin posted a 2.31 ERA in nine outings (eight starts) covering just under 47 innings and he finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. The 27-year-old RHP has been used essentially as an opener, not going more than 3 2/3 innings in any of his three starts this season so far. Start number four will come at home tonight where Gonsolin has a career 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA. That home number is more than a full run lower than Gonsolin's ERA away from Dodger Stadium (3.10). This will be Gonsolin's first career appearance vs. the Cubs. The Dodgers have won all three of Gonsolin's starts this season and they are 6-2 in his eight career starts at Dodger Stadium. RH Jake Arrieta will go for the Cubs who are 4-10 in Arrieta's last 14 starts as a road underdog. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-24-21 | Red Sox +110 v. Rays | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. When Nick Pivetta came to Boston from Philadelphia in the latter half of last season, he wasted little time in showing the Red Sox what he could do in his new surroundings. In two 2020 starts, the 27-year-old RHP went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA before the COVID-shortened campaign came to an end. Now it's a year later, and although Pivetta isn't putting up quite the lofty numbers he did in his short 2020 stint, he has still shown his new team that he can contribute. In 14 starts covering 74 1/3 innings, Pivetta is 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA and a strikeout rate of 10.4 per nine innings. His only previous start against the Rays was in his first start of this season on April 5 when Pivetta shut out Tampa over five innings, allowing just two hits while striking out four. That start was at Fenway and so this will be Pivetta's first-ever game action at Tropicana Field. Despite their loss on Wednesday night, the Red Sox are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-24-21 | A's -143 v. Rangers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. Chris Bassitt had one of the best campaigns of any MLB starter last season, going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts covering 63 innings. The 32-year-old RH finished eighth in the AL Cy Young voting and those numbers clearly would have gotten him a nod to his first All-Star game -- if there had been one, however the 2020 Mid-summer Classic was cancelled. No problem if you're Bassitt -- just repeat the performance in 2021, which he seems to be doing. The ERA may be elevated over last season (3.40) but his WHIP is better (1.06) and Bassitt has a record of 7-2 and a 9.5 K rate so don't be surprised if you see him in Denver on July 13. Bassitt will go for win number eight in this afternoon affair against the Rangers. Bassitt would love nothing better than a repeat of the last time he faced Texas -- a 10-1 beatdown in 2020 in which he went six strong innings, allowing one run with eight strikeouts. The A's are 7-1 in Bassitt's last eight starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -137 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. The prospect that everyone wanted to see in a Major League uniform made his Tampa Bay debut last night. And 20-year-old IF Wander Franco did not disappoint, going two-for-four with three runs driven in, with his first Major League hit being a long ball in the 5th inning. Franco's heroics weren't enough to save the day as the Rays fell to the Red Sox in extra innings. Unfortunately, Franco couldn't go to the mound for his team last night which is what the Rays needed as their pitching let them down. They will turn to a veteran who is more than twice the age of their superstar rookie as LHP Rich Hill takes the mound tonight for the hometown Rays. Tampa is Hill's 10th MLB team and has been a huge breath of fresh air in his first season with the Rays, going 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts. Hill's teams are 11-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 14 starts vs. division opponents and the Rays are 5-0 in Hill's last five starts vs. AL East clubs. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-23-21 | Royals v. Yankees -167 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. The pitching matchup in the Bronx tonight will feature righty Michael King for New York, and lefty Danny Duffy for the Royals. We'll take the homestanding Pinstripes, as Duffy hasn't had much success vs. New York in his career. He's made nine starts, and owns a nasty 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 43 innings. Today, Duffy will be on a short leash, as he's making his first start since going on the Injured List with a strained left forearm. It's estimated that he will throw no more than 65 pitches. Meanwhile, King is starting to adjust to his newfound role as a starting pitcher in the Yankees' rotation. A sinkerballer, King has improved his command this season, which has lowered his flyball rate, as well as his ERA (7.76 last season; 4.08 in 2021). One advantage for King tonight is that (with the exception of Alberto Hanser), none of the Royals hitters have ever batted against him before. New York is 15-5 the last 20 meetings at home vs. Kansas City. Take the Yankees to blow out the Royals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-23-21 | White Sox -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Dylan Cease will get the start for the Pale Hose this afternoon, as Chicago will attempt to snap its 5-game losing streak. Cease has been brilliant this season in his daytime starts, as he has a 2.87 ERA over those six starts, with a 1.34 WHIP. And he's also been spotless in Interleague action this season (0.00 ERA; 0.66 WHIP). He'll match up against Pirates righty Chase de Jong, and Chicago has been installed as a mid-sized road favorite. That bodes well for Chicago today, as it's 53-19 (+25 games on the moneyline) its last 72 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Pirates are 20-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175. Even better for Chicago: de Jong's teams are 0-4 in his career starts when priced as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take Chicago. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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06-22-21 | Brewers -150 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a rare feat for an MLB team to have three starters selected to the All Star team in the same season. But the Brewers could achieve that in less than a month with their "Big Three" of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Each one of them certainly has the numbers to warrant serious consideration to make the trip to Denver for the Mid-summer Classic. Meanwhile, the first place Brewers have more important things to worry about and those three starters are likely going to be the key to them staying atop the division. Peralta will get his 14th start tonight and it comes against the worst team -- statistically at least -- in the Majors so the 25-year-old RHP has an excellent chance to pick up his seventh win of the season (against two losses). Peralta has a 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and league-best 4.3 hit rate in his 75 innings of work. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are still 17-6 in the last 23 meetings with Arizona. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-21 | Giants v. Angels -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over San Francisco. Lefty Andrew Heaney has been strong of late, as he's given up just 5 runs over his last three starts, covering 18 innings (2.50 ERA). And he's struck out 20 batters (against just 20 baserunners) in those three games (1.11 WHIP). One of those games was against this Giants team. And Heaney dominated San Francisco on the road in that contest, as he gave up just 1 run in 6 1-3 innings, in an 8-1 Angels victory. The Angels are a super 178-134 (+35 games on the moneyline) in interleague games, and we'll back them tonight at home. Take the Angels. |
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06-22-21 | White Sox -170 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The ChiSox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, tonight, and they've won five of his last six starts. Giolito has a nice 3.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, but he's been at his best at night (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), and in Interleague starts (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Giolito's mound opponent tonight will be southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has lost his last four decisions. His ERA on the season is 4.89, but it's 5.71 over his last three starts, and 5.36 at night. Even worse: Chicago dominates lefty starters, as it is 33-5 the past two seasons in games started by southpaws. Take the White Sox. |
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06-21-21 | Braves v. Mets -215 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Please only list the Mets' Jake deGrom, and not the Atlanta pitcher. We will have a play on the Mets regardless of who starts for Atlanta. The first place Mets must have been given a bit of a scare when the best pitcher on the planet was removed from his last start with shoulder soreness after only three innings. But the team and deGrom himself have since proclaimed that the 33-year-old RH with the incomprehensible numbers is ready to go this late afternoon in the first game of this double-header with the Braves. The fact is that the Mets bullpen is strong enough that even if deGrom has to be pulled early again, they will likely be able to get the job done if he leaves with a lead (like they did last time). How do you even put into words how dominating a 0.54 ERA with 111 strikeouts and eight walks and 26 hits allowed in 67 innings of work is in the Major Leagues? A seven inning game is just what the doctor ordered for deGrom at this point so this situation would appear to be perfect for him. The Mets are 5-0 in deGrom's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-20-21 | Rays -152 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. It's no surprise that the Rays drafted LHP Shane McClanahan with the 31st selection in the 2018 Amateur draft. After all, McClanahan was one of the top pitching prospects in the country and he had already been drafted three years earlier by the Mets in the 26th round. But the other reason this choice made so much sense is because McClanahan is a local product and played his college ball at the University of South Florida. Now 24, McClanahan has made it to the big show and it doesn't look like he'll be heading back to the Minors anytime soon. The young southpaw is 2-2 with 4.42 ERA in nine starts, but the numbers that really jump of the page at you are his 46 strikeouts with 13 walks (a 3.54 ratio) in 38 2/3 innings. This will be McClanahan's first start vs. the M's and we will find out if Seattle's pitcher-friendly park agrees with him. Sunshine agrees with the Rays lately as they are 21-7 (+17 games on the moneyline) in their last 28 day games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-20-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Braves | Top | 9-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves. Weather caused a postponement of the game between these two on Saturday and so they will do a day-night double-header (of the seven inning variety) in Atlanta. Perhaps it's appropriate that on Fathers' Day, the Cards send their elder statesman to the mound in the first game as RHP Adam Wainwright will get his 14th start of the season in the afternoon affair. The younger pitchers on this team probably look up to the almost-40-year-old as a bit of a father figure these days, but Wainwright can still bring it with the best of them as evidenced by his 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just under 80 innings this season. He certainly shouldn't mind a start against the Braves today as Wainwright is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA in 19 career games (14 starts) covering just over 94 innings against them. Also, Wainwright loves day games, as he has a 67-33 career record and 3.28 ERA in 149 games (118 starts) under the sun. He'll face the Braves Bryse Wilson this afternoon. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Wilson's not fared well at home this season, as he brings a 4.58 home ERA into this contest. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle. The Rays will start southpaw Josh Fleming on Saturday night against RHP Logan Gilbert and the Mariners. This will be Fleming's sixth start of the season, and he has a nice 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2021. Tampa has been installed as a road favorite in this game, and the Rays are 17-6 when favored by -150 or less this season. And they're 65-34 (+26 games on the moneyline) vs. righties, and 37-21 (+11 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-21 | Brewers +100 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will start Austin Gomber tonight, and it will be his 3rd career start vs. Milwaukee. Unfortunately, his career ERA is 7.04 vs. the Brewers, which doesn't inspire confidence tonight. Meanwhile, the Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Adrian Houser, who has made one career start vs. Colorado, and he threw four scoreless innings, while striking out five, and allowing just one hit. Houser's last three starts have all been strong, as he's given up just 3 run over 16 innings (1.69 ERA). And Milwaukee won each of those games. Take the Brewers. |
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06-19-21 | White Sox +112 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros. Last night, the White Sox dropped their second straight game (both to Houston), as they lost 2-1 to the Astros. But Houston started right-handed pitchers in each of Thursday and Friday's games. And Chicago is a pedestrian 25-23 vs. righties this season. But not against lefties, as Chicago is 18-4 this season, and was 15-0 last season (33-4 combined). Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to southpaw Framber Valdez, who will make his fifth start of the season. He has a 1.42 ERA, and the Astros are 3-1 in his starts. But he will face a tough opponent tonight in White Sox righty Lance Lynn. Lynn has made 12 starts this season, and has a 7-2 record, and a 1.63 ERA. Take the underdog White Sox. |
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06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Oakland A's. Last night, something had to give, as Oakland brought a six-game win streak into the Bronx, while the Yankees were on a 3-game win streak. The A's were victorious, 5-3, so New York will look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. The Pinstripes will hand the ball to RHP Domingo German, while Oakland will start Chris Bassitt. New York has been installed as a home favorite, which bodes well as it is 89-45 (+10 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -110 (or higher). And New York is 17-6, in German's 23 home starts, including 8-1 in his nine home starts, when priced from -125 to -175. Take New York on Saturday. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-21 | Rays -108 v. Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Michael Wacha broke into the Major Leagues with St. Louis at the tender age of 21 back in 2013. Wacha spent each of the next seven seasons with the Cards before being granted free agency in 2019 and signing with the Mets for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He signed with Tampa before this season and Wacha has been able to contribute to the first place Rays' success as both a starter and reliever so far. He will get his eighth start of the season tonight and it comes in a pitcher-friendly park which should suit Wacha well. Wacha's teams are 4-0 in his last four starts vs. AL West teams. Meanwhile, the M's will go with Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a pretty successful season so far with a 3.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts. But despite solid numbers of late, Seattle is just 8-16 (-10 games on the moneyline) in Kikuchi's last 24 home starts as well as 10-23 (-14 games on the moneyline) in his last 33 night starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-18-21 | Dodgers -184 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pitching match-ups don't get much more one-sided than this, as Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, will face Caleb Smith. It's true that Bauer had his worst start since September 2019 six days ago when the Rangers crushed the Dodgers, 12-1. But I fully expect Bauer to bounce back tonight. He has a perfect 4-0 record, with a 1.99 ERA in division games this season, while Smith has a 5.19 ERA on the season (and a 9.00 ERA in division games). Throw in the facts that Arizona has dropped 14 straight games, and has also given up 4+ runs in 14 of its last 15 games, and you have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Dodgers tonight (given that Bauer's teams have won 10 straight when they've scored 4+ runs with him on the mound). Take Los Angeles. |
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06-18-21 | Brewers -186 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -186 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The National League Central is probably the most entertaining Division in all of the Major Leagues. The non-play of the St. Louis Cardinals has opened things up in the Division and right now it looks like any one of four teams can wear the crown come September (all except Pittsburgh, which is already out of it). Milwaukee's success is due to its "big three" starters of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes. Those three just might be the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation in all of baseball right now (and the three that nobody wants to face in a short playoff series). It will be RH Burnes tonight in arguably the toughest place for starters in the League. But if there's anyone who can tame Coors Field, it just might be Burnes, who has a 2.27 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate in 11 starts covering 63 1/3 innings. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine road games vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |
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06-17-21 | Rays -163 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -163 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. It is an unwritten rule of baseball that starting pitchers will regress once they get into their late 30s and beyond -- if they're lucky enough to stick around the league that long. But tell that to 41-year-old southpaw Rich Hill and you're likely to get a shrug in response. How many MLB starters would kill to have the following ERAs in eight consecutive seasons: 3.38, 1.55, 2.12, 3.32, 3.66, 2.45, 3.03, 3.38. That last number is from this season and Hill has a 5-2 record, 1.02 WHIP and 9.2 strikeout rate to go along with it, in 66 2/3 innings. Health has been the main issue for Hill over the years but he seems to have put those concerns behind him for now as he hasn't missed a start so far in this campaign. Here's an amazing statistic: Coming into tonight, Hill has fired blanks (given up zero runs) in five of his last eight starts. In 12 career appearances (five starts) vs. the Mariners, Hill is undefeated (4-0) with a 2.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just over 39 innings. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-17-21 | Reds v. Padres -167 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds. There's likely nothing better for an MLB starter who is entering his prime (ages 26-28) than going from a bad team to a very good team. Such is the case with RHP Joe Musgrove in the 2021 MLB season. Musgrove pitched for the Pirates in 2018-2020 and then was traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego as part of a three-team deal at the beginning of this year. How did he respond? Musgrove is not only having his best MLB season since coming into the league in 2016, but he has already thrown a complete-game no-hitter and the future would certainly appear to be bright as Musgrove is arbitration-eligible after 2021. Having pitched for the Pirates for three seasons, Musgrove has plenty of experience against the Reds. In six games vs. Cincy (five starts), Musgrove is 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in just under 31 innings. Cincinnati will go with LHP Wade Miley and the Padres are 5-0 in their last five games vs. southpaw starters, while Miley's career marks vs. the Padres include a 1-6 record, and a 5.38 ERA. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-16-21 | Padres -175 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Which version of Blake Snell will show up this afternoon for the Padres? Will it be the one who opened up the month of June with seven innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts against a very good Mets team? Or will it be the one who lasted only four innings in his next start against that very same club? There's no question that Snell's first season in San Diego has been a bit of an enigma but the talent is clearly still there with the 28-year-old southpaw. Snell's 14th start will come in arguably the Major's toughest ballpark for pitchers but that hasn't been a problem for him in the past. In two career starts here at Coors Field, Snell is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 10 innings. Overall against the Rockies, Snell has completely dominated with a 2-0 record and 1.17 ERA in four starts covering 23 innings. Despite their loss here last night, the Padres are still 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with the Rockies. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-16-21 | Reds v. Brewers -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brew Crew this afternoon. And Milwaukee will look to salvage the third game of this 3-game set, as it lost the first two games to the Reds. But the good news for Milwaukee is that Peralta will be on the mound today. He has a 6-1 record, with a 2.32 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP. And opposing batters are hitting just .134 against him over 68 innings! The Brewers are 9-3 in his 12 starts, including a perfect 5-0 his last five outings. Even better: Milwaukee's 21-8 in its last 29 day games, and Peralta's home ERA is 1.45, with a 0.56 WHIP. Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle has a 5.90 ERA in his six daytime starts, compared to a 1.83 ERA in his seven nighttime contests. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-15-21 | Phillies +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies had their four-game win streak halted yesterday by Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers, but I love Philly as a big underdog tonight. Julio Urias will take the mound for the World Champs. But Urias has not been overly effective here, at home, this season, as his ERA is 4.58, with a 1.21 WHIP. And in his career, the Dodgers are just 6-6 in his 12 home starts (minus 5 games on the moneyline), when priced as a favorite of -150 to -200. Urias' mound opponent will be RHP Zach Eflin. And Eflin's teams are 8-8 (but +5 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200. Take the Phillies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-15-21 | Padres -220 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -220 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Colorado. The Rockies snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with a one-run win over the Padres. But I expect Colorado to resume its losing ways tonight, and especially as it will be facing Yu Darvish. The Japanese righty has a sensational 2.28 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, including 11 innings against the Rockies, in which he surrendered 0 earned runs, and struck out 12 Rockies batsmen. Darvish will be opposed by Colorado's Chi Chi Rodriguez (5.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). Unfortunately, the Rockies have lost six of Rodriguez' eight starts this season. And his career ERA vs. San Diego is 7.05 in four starts. Take San Diego. |
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06-15-21 | Reds v. Brewers -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. With their big win last night over this Brewers club, the Cincinnati Reds are now two games over .500 and only four games out of first place in the NL Central. So just imagine what their record -- and placing -- would be if they were getting any kind of performance out of their #1 starter RHP Luis Castillo. For no apparent reason, Castillo has been awful so far. After winning 19 games with an ERA around 3.4 runs over the past two seasons, Castillo has completely lost it in 2021. In 13 starts covering 64 innings, Castillo has two wins to go with a league-leading nine losses and an ugly 6.47 ERA. Since nobody seems to know what's wrong with him, there's little reason to think Castillo can turn things around tonight. LH Brett Anderson goes in his 11th start for the Crew. Anderson's season is nothing to crow about (2-4 with a 4.99 ERA) but it's a heck of a lot better than Castillo's. Despite its loss last night, Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight home games. Take the Brewers. |
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06-14-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -200 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. How does a team score four total runs in a four game series and still manage to come away with a 2-2 split? That's what the Giants did this weekend in DC against the Nats and it's a testament to their pitching that they were able to accomplish that. The Giants' 3.19 team ERA is fourth-best in the Majors and it's the main reason they are the biggest surprise in the NL (maybe in all of baseball). Their offense has been pretty good too, even if it forgot to show up this past weekend. San Fran's 91 home runs ranks second in the NL to the Atlanta Braves and they could use a couple of those tonight against the worst pitching staff in the League (5.09 team ERA). LH Alex Wood brings his 5-3 record, 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to the home mound tonight and Wood has been pretty solid here this season (3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts). Wood has faced the D-Backs 19 times (11 starts) and he is 5-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 73 innings against them. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-14-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Baltimore Orioles. When last we saw these two teams play, the O's were putting up the most runs they've scored since 2015. That 18-5 Sunday afternoon drubbing in Baltimore probably still stings the players on Cleveland's ballclub and you can bet the Tribe is looking forward to getting some revenge in this four-game series at home. It won't be one of the Indians' aces to start things off tonight but rather 24-year-old rookie RHP Jean Carlos Mejia. Mejia's MLB career is off to a solid if not spectacular start as he is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in five games -- including two starts. One of those starts was in that same weekend series in Baltimore, but it wasn't the Sunday game and Mejia actually pitched very well, blanking the O's over three innings while allowing just two hits. A repeat of that performance coupled with some support from his offense should yield a Cleveland victory tonight. The O's are 7-15 in the last 22 meetings and 2-8 in the last 10 here in Cleveland. Take the Tribe. |
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06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -119 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. After they dropped 18 runs on Boston on Sunday, the Sox were hoping that the Blue Jays would just go away. But unfortunately for the Sox, this series still has one more game to be played tonight. RHP Nathan Eovaldi will take his 7-3 record and 4.11 ERA to the mound tonight for Boston. Going to the hill for the Blue Jays will be rookie RHP Alek Manoah. Manoah was Toronto's first round pick in 2019 and despite his fast rise to the Majors and young age (23), Manoah has not disappointed so far with a 1-0 record, 3.14 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP over his first three MLB starts covering 14 1/3 innings. This will be Manoah's first-ever start against the Red Sox, but on the other side Eovaldi has faced the Jays seven times including six starts with fairly mixed results. But one thing he does do pretty consistently is win games at Fenway Park. In 34 games (26 starts) here, Eovaldi has a record of 10-5. Also, Eovaldi's 0.4 HR rate this season is the best in baseball, which should serve him well against the homer-happy Blue Jays, who rank #1 this season in home runs (with 99). Take Boston. |
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06-13-21 | Padres -121 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. After a pretty successful rookie season back in 2018 when he went 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA in 26 starts, LH Joey Lucchesi's career has been going pretty much downhill since. Lucchesi followed up 2018 with a 10-10 and 4.18 campaign in 2019, but the last two seasons have fallen apart for the now-28-year-old. In the 2020 shortened season, Lucchesi went 0-1 with 7.94 ERA in three games (two starts). And so far this season, he hasn't been much better, going 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA in nine games (six starts) covering 28 innings. Lucchesi faces his former San Diego team for only the second time this afternoon and he has a tall order when you consider the Padres' offense is much better now than at any time he played for them (and also because his hitters have to face a very good starter in San Diego's Chris Paddack). The Padres' 25-year-old RHP is looking for revenge today after losing to the Mets in his last start, 6-2, although he threw a quality start in that one. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-12-21 | Cardinals +147 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. How does a starting pitcher lead the league in walks with 37 in 54 2/3 innings -- an absurd walk rate of 6.1 -- and still log a winning record with a very nice 2.63 ERA in his 11 starts. The Cardinals likely don't know how RHP John Gant is doing it anymore than we do and they likely don't care too much as long as he can continue to be successful. Gant's somewhat mysterious season continues tonight as he gets his 12th start and it will come against his team's dvision rival, Chicago, at Wrigley Field. Here is the other strange thing about Gant. As solid as his overall ERA has been this year, it's completely off the charts when he pitches on the road. In six starts away from St. Louis, Gant is 2-1 with a sparkling 0.90 ERA in 30 innings. Moreover, in 13 previous games vs. the Cubs -- three starts -- Gant is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA in just under 24 innings. Finally, despite their loss on Friday, the Cards are still 8-3 in the last 11 games here on the North Side. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-12-21 | Padres -125 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. It's hard to believe that a pitcher with a 2.33 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.85 K:BB ratio and no-hitter to his credit could be considered as having a hard-luck season. But that's pretty much how you would have to classify the Padres' Joe Musgrove. The reason for the hard-luck label is the 28-year-old's 4-5 record in 12 games (11 starts). Obviously, with the kind of numbers he has and the kind of team he has around him, Musgrove should have a much better record than the one he's currently sporting. He has revenge on his mind today, as in his last start, Musgrove and the Padres were shut out by the Mets, 4-0, on June 5 in his home ballpark. Musgrove hopes to do better in his first career start at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Musgrove has actually been much more effective on the road this season. In six games (five starts) away from San Diego, Musgrove has logged a 1.76 ERA and 0.69 WHIP (compared to a 2.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts at Petco Park). Take the Padres. |
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06-12-21 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 112 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Two starters who used to face off over in the National League East Division will do so again this afternoon -- but as members of AL East teams. Boston's Nick Pivetta and Toronto's Steven Matz came over from the Phillies and Mets, respectively, and they will go to the mound for their new teams in this critical game. You could certainly argue that Pivetta and his 6-1 record and 3.78 ERA has had the better season so far, and few would disagree with you. But despite his higher ERA (4.50), Matz has managed a winning record and has had to pitch his home games in what are basically minor league parks (Buffalo, Dunedin). And Toronto's two home ballparks this season rank (along with Coors Field) among the three highest in terms of projected runs scored. This is reflected in the veteran southpaw's poor home numbers (1-2 with a 5.76 ER and 1.92 WHIP in five starts) vs. his superior ones on the road (5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). Toronto is also 13-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 daytime games. Take the Blue Jays. |
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06-11-21 | Astros -152 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Bailey Ober will now get the start for Minnesota, and Ober has not impressed in his young career, thus far. He's made two starts this season, and has given up 5 runs in 8 innings (5.62 ERA), with a 1.37 WHIP. Ober will face the Astros, who upset the Twins in last year's playoffs. Houston will hand the ball to RHP Jose Urquidy, who also stumbled in his last start (six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Toronto). But Houston won each of Urquidy's five starts prior to that outing. And Urquidy's career ERA vs. Minnesota is 2.08, with a WHIP of 0.92. Even better: the Astros have scored 7, 8, and 8 runs in each of their last three games. And they're 32-8 on the road after scoring 7+ runs in each of their three previous games. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-11-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -124 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Ross Stripling followed up an All Star season in 2018 with another solid campaign in 2019 (4-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 games including 15 starts). Despite that success, Stripling was still relegated to a part time role in the rotation for the Dodgers. Then in 2020 after struggling through the first few months, the Dodgers traded the 30-year-old right-hander to Toronto for players named later. Stripling has continued to struggle with the Jays, which is not surprising considering he's in the American League now and not pitching his home games in Dodger Stadium anymore. He'll have to face a very good offense in the Red Sox tonight and in four previous starts against them, Stripling has been knocked around pretty good, going 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Garrett Richards (4-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 65 innings) will get his 13th start for the Sox tonight, and he's been fairly consistent of late. In his last eight starts, he's allowed three earned runs (or less) in seven of them. Richards also excels in his nighttime starts, as his teams are 63-42 (+17 games on the moneyline) in his career (compared to 14-21, minus 13 games on the moneyline in daytime starts). These two pitchers actually faced off against each other last month, and Richards notched his 4th win of the season, in a 7-3 BoSox victory. Finally, the Red Sox are 15-6 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 21 games vs. Division opponents. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +104 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. LHP Dallas Keuchel is proof that you can continue to have a productive career as an MLB pitcher after your years as a strikeout artist are over. Keuchel used to punch out close to a batter per inning but those days are behind him now and the 33-year-old southpaw is having to re-invent himself in his second season with the White Sox. So far, it appears to be working as Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts covering just under 66 innings. The good news for Keuchel tonight is that his record against the Blue Jays is unblemished. In six starts covering just under 38 innings, Keuchel is 4-0 vs. Toronto. The White Sox are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Keuchel's last seven starts. Korean southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu will start for the Blue Jays tonight and the Sox are 29-4 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 33 games vs. teams with a lefty starter. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cleveland Indians. After an 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles of all teams on Sunday, Cleveland had a day off and then took out its frustration in St. Louis on the Cardinals last night. But that was a pitching mis-match with Shane Bieber going up against Carlos Martinez who might not be long for the rotation if he can't turn things around soon. Tonight it will be the ageless wonder -- RHP Adam Wainwright -- going for the Cards. Just shy of his 40th birthday, Wainwright can still go out and give his team six-plus quality innings and he certainly doesn't mind the occasional inter-league match-up. In 42 games vs. the AL (36 starts), Wainwright is 16-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 242 innings. In two previous games vs. the Tribe (one start), Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 12 Ks and three walks in 11 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Indians are still 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games. The Cards are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-09-21 | Mets -136 v. Orioles | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Baltimore Orioles. Don't look now, but some other team's lineup seems to have taken over that of the Baltimore Orioles in the last few days. All the O's hitters have done over the last two games is put up 28 runs on 37 hits in victories over the Indians and Mets. Tonight, the Mets stay in town for the second of this two-game inter-league set and the problem for the Orioles won't be their offense but the fact that a former Met is scheduled to go to the mound for them. Matt Harvey was all the rage for New York when he came up at age 23 almost 10 years ago. But injuries have completely derailed Harvey's career and he's now trying to resurrect it in Baltimore (but it's not going well). In contrast, a pitcher who HAS resurrected his career is Harvey's mound opponent tonight -- the Mets veteran RH Taijuan Walker. Walker is 4-2 in 11 starts, with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in 54 innings. Most importantly, Walker's teams are 10-1 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his last 11 starts as a favorite. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -196 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sometimes MLB pitchers don't hit their stride until they hit their 30s. Starters like Charlie Morton come to mind and so does tonight's starter for the A's, RHP Chris Bassitt. Through his age 29 season, Bassitt went 4-14 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.96 K:BB ratio. But since 2019 -- his age 30 season -- Bassitt is 20-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 276 strikeouts vs. 81 walks -- a 3.41 K:BB ratio. Bassitt goes for win number six on the season tonight against a Diamondbacks team that has not had success on the road this season. In 34 games away from the Desert, Arizona is 9-25 and it's 0-4 in the last four meetings with Oakland. And in those four games, the D-Backs have been out-scored by 25-12. Bassitt's ERA here at home is a full run better than it is on the road this season (2.97 vs. 3.98). Neither of these teams had games on Monday and that's a situation that Oakland should relish tonight, having gone 8-0 in its last eight games when playing with a day off. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-08-21 | Giants -133 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. The Giants lost a tough one on Sunday after going up 3-1 on the Cubs after two innings. The offense fired blanks after that and the Giants fell 4-3. Firing blanks is something that San Francisco's opponent tonight, the Texas Rangers, sure know something about. The normally potent Ranger offense is anything but lately. Over the last 30 days, Texas is last in the American League in batting average (.208), home runs (23), OPS (.613), and next to last in runs scored (90). At least some of that struggle is due to the fact that the Rangers play their home games in a new park that has turned out to be quite a pitcher's paradise. Those problems could continue tonight in Arlington against LHP Alex Wood, one of the latest reclamation projects of the Giants. In nine starts covering 51 2/3 innings, Wood is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The Rangers are also a woeful 0-8 in their last eight inter-league games, while the Giants are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -119 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Chicago Cubs. The Padres would probably prefer to bring 21-year-old former first round draft pick Ryan Weathers along slowly and perhaps use him more as a bullpen option at this point of his career. But a plethora of injuries to their pitching staff has meant that Weathers has moved into a more-or-less full-time role as a Padres starter. It would appear at this time that San Diego is going with a six-man rotation and the young RH is sure making a strong case that the Pads should continue to do that for the time being. In 12 games -- including seven starts -- Weathers is 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in just over 39 innings. Both the Padres and Weathers get a chance for some revenge tonight as Weathers faced the Cubs six days ago and picked up his second loss (and the Cubs swept the Padres in that 3-game series). But those games were in Wrigley Field; tonight Weathers gets the Cubbies at home where he has a 1.93 ERA in six games (three starts). The Padres are also red-hot at home, going 15-4 in their last 19 here at Petco Park. And they're 82-80 (but +21 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a 3-game series sweep. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -138 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Garrett Richards will toe the rubber for Boston this evening, and he's had ZERO success in his career vs. New York. In six starts vs. the Pinstripes, Richards is 0-5 (his teams are 0-6), with an ERA of 8.76, and a WHIP of 1.78. It doesn't get much uglier than that! In contrast, Domingo German has made five starts vs. Boston, and his teams are 4-1. Even better: at home, in his career, German's teams are 17-5, including a perfect 8-0 when priced from -125 to -175. And his teams have won 17 of his last 21 nighttime starts. Meanwhile, Richards teams are 3-17 on the road in his starts, when priced from +125 to +175. Take the Yankees to blow out Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -133 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. Chris Paddack will get the start for the homestanding Padres this afternoon. At home, Paddack has a 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, and the Padres are 6-1 at home when favored by 150 or less with him on the mound. That bodes well for San Diego today. As does the fact that the Mets are a horrible 19-37 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced at +150 or less, while Marcus Stroman's teams are 12-26 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) in his career, when priced as the underdog. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati. The Cards have dropped four straight games heading into this contest. They'll hand the ball to RHP John Gant, who comes into this game off back to back scoreless outings -- against two of baseball's best clubs. On June 1, Gant held the mighty Dodgers to 0 runs over six innings, in a 3-2 win. And back on May 26, he threw five scoreless innings at the White Sox, in a 4-0 victory. Gant and the Cardinals are back home for this one, and Cincy is a poor 26-49 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. And the Reds are also 40-63 (minus 29 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs. Take St. Louis. |
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06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -210 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Detroit. Nobody is going to pick the Tigers to win the World Series -- or even a Division Title -- anytime soon, but this club has played surprisingly well lately. With series against the Yankees, Brewers, and White Sox, Detroit has gone 5-3. Unfortunately, the Tigers face a very talented young starter in RH Dylan Cease this afternoon. Admittedly, Cease still walks too many batters -- although he's done slightly better in that category in 2021 -- but when he's on, he can be very good. The 25-year-old also has one of the strongest home/road biases in baseball this season. In six starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 2-0 with an amazing 1.99 ERA in just under 32 innings. But in five road starts, he is 1-2 with 6.26 ERA in 23 innings. He also had his best start this season against the Tigers. On April 29 in the second game of a double-header, Cease pitched a seven inning complete game shutout right here at home. Detroit is 7-24 in the last 31 meetings and 5-17 in the last 22 meetings here. Take the White Sox. |
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06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cincinnati Reds. What has happened to Luis Castillo? Nobody seems to know for sure, but whatever it is, the Reds would like to fix it as soon as possible. Considered one of the top starters in the NL after back-to-back stellar seasons, the 28-year-old RH has seen his game fall apart so far in 2021. In 11 starts, Castillo is 1-8 with 7.22 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in just over 52 innings. Those are some truly ugly numbers. He'll try again tonight, but it will be against one of the better teams in the league in the 31-26 Cards. St. Louis' pitching injuries (Hudson, Mikolas, and now Flaherty) have opened the door for Korean LH Kwang Hyun Kim. In eight starts, Kim's record is just 1-3 but he has a nice 3.65 ERA in 37 innings. Kim probably can't wait to get started tonight. In three previous starts vs. the Reds, the 32-year-old southpaw is 3-0 with a sparkling 0.54 ERA (one run in 16 2/3 innings) and 0.78 WHIP. The Reds, meanwhile, are a wallet-busting 49-99 in the last 148 meetings here in St. Louis. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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06-04-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. We're two months into the baseball season, but the Yankees and Red Sox have yet to play a game against each other. All that changes tonight when Boston travels to the Bronx to face their rival. And the Red Sox have had little success vs. the Yankees of late, as they've lost their last 11 games here, at Yankee Stadium. We'll take New York tonight to extend that streak to 12 games, as they'll hand the ball to RHP Michael King. King has made two appearances in his career vs. the BoSox, and he's 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA. Even better: the Yankees are a dominant 58-22 (+21 games on the moneyline) at home if they lost their previous game. And they're 41-18 at home when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less). Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres -175 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the NY Mets. Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for San Diego tonight, and the Padres have won 10 of his 11 starts in 2021, including the last seven in a row. I look for this streak to remain intact tonight, as the Mets are a dreadful 8-25 as road underdogs, priced from +125 to +175. Even better: Darvish's teams are 16-1 at home vs. opponents with below average power that average 0.9 (or less) home runs per game (the Mets have hit just 43 HRs in 48 games). And his ERA in his seven nighttime starts this season is a microscopic 1.37. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-03-21 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. At first blush, the Giants' Anthony DeSclafani's 4-2 record and 3.56 ERA in 11 starts are very solid. But the former Cincinnati Reds RHP's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that DeSclafani allowed 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings two starts ago to the Dodgers. In fact, the 31-year-old's last two starts have come against Los Angeles leading into this match-up with the Cubs. DeSclafani has faced the Cubs on 12 previous occasions from his time in the NL Central and he has a winning record (4-3) against them with a 3.91 ERA in 69 innings. DeSclafani now pitches for the Giants and has the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly home venue in Oracle Park. At 32-23, the Cubs have had a very successful campaign so far in 2021 but they are 2-6 in the last eight meetings here in San Francisco. The Giants are a reliable 14-5 (+12 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games immediately following a loss. Take San Francisco. |
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06-03-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -162 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Heading into the 2019 season, expectations for LHP Brett Anderson were not very high to say the least. The then-30-year-old had only managed two seasons -- out of 10 up to that point -- in which he made it through uninjured and the last one was 2015. But 2019 seemed to do the trick as Anderson started 31 games for the A's, winning 13 times with a nice 3.89 ERA. Ironically, he was cut loose at the end of that season and the Brewers picked him up. And so far, so good, as Anderson has only made two short trips to the IL but otherwise has not missed a beat in 2020 or so far this season. In eight starts in 2021, Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.18 ERA -- not spectacular numbers, but Milwaukee is being very cautious with him for good reason. Here at Miller Park, Anderson has made eight career starts with a 3-2 record and 3.83 ERA in 40 innings. The D-Backs are also 2-9 in the last 11 meetings with the Crew and 1-7 in the last eight in Milwaukee. Take the Brewers. |
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06-02-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -221 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis. One of my favorite pitchers, Walker Buehler, will take the mound for Los Angeles tonight. We played against Buehler in his last start, and got the $$$ with the San Francisco Giants as a +171 underdog. But we'll reverse course, and take Buehler tonight, as he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 2.37 ERA and a stellar 0.84 WHIP. Moreover, the Dodgers are an awesome 58-13 (+23.4 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -200 (or more), including 16-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) with Buehler on the hill. That bodes well for the Dodgers in this game. As does the fact that St. Louis' Carlos Martinez has an awful ERA of 5.29 over his last three starts, while Buehler's ERA over his last three games is 0.90. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-01-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -152 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Miami Marlins. Monday was Memorial Day in the U.S. but not in Canada (July 1 is Memorial Day north of the border). So while almost all of the American-based teams were playing, Canada's only team had the day off. The Jays return to action tonight and it will be in a new ballpark for 2021. After playing their home games in Dunedin for the first two months of this season, Toronto returns to Buffalo's Sahlen Field where it played last season. This could be a good thing in general for Jays pitchers as the Florida venue was considered a bandbox and the one in Buffalo is much more pitcher-friendly. RH Robbie Ray gets the honors tonight in his 10th start of the season. Ray is having a nice rebound campaign, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and career-best 5.00 K:BB ratio with 60 strikeouts and 12 walks in 52 innings. Ray has a career 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP vs. Miami with 43 strikeouts and 12 walks in 39 innings against them. The Jays are also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-31-21 | Padres -160 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -160 | 2 h 60 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Chicago Cubs. After a very rough month of April that saw him log a 1-3 record with a 5.40 ERA in five starts, Padres RHP Chris Paddack has turned things around in May. In four starts this month, Paddack is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, and he has 14 strikeouts and four walks in his 19 innings. More important is the fact that the Padres are 4-0 in those starts and they have out-scored the opposition by a very lopsided 42-6 in those games. Paddack would like to end the month in the same manner that he's done throughout and hopefully carry that momentum over to June. The Cubs are playing some very good ball right now, having won six of their last seven games. But six of those seven were against the likes of the Pirates and Reds so San Diego should present a much tougher test this afternoon. Paddack's only other start against the Cubbies was a good one -- six scoreless innings allowing three hits with seven strikeouts and one walk in a win. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels. After coming out of nowhere to go 3-3 with a 3.09 ERA in his first six starts, southpaw Cole Irvin of the Oakland A's has cooled off over his next four starts. He's been hit pretty hard in his last two, which both came against fellow AL West teams, so Irvin is hoping that the third time in a row is a charm as he faces the Angels for the first time in his career. The good news for the 27-year-old today is that the Halos are hitting just .239 against left-handed pitching this season and they are also without Mike Trout as he recovers from a lower leg injury. You might think that Irvin has enjoyed the confines of his pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland but that hasn't been the case this season. In six starts at the Coliseum, Irvin has a 4.50 ERA while in four starts elsewhere his ERA is almost a run-and-a-half lower at 3.09. Veteran southpaw Jose Quintana gets the start for the Angels and the A's are 60-24 (+31 games on the moneyline) in their last 84 games vs. LH starters. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-30-21 | Padres v. Astros -106 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Diego Padres. Two former AL Cy Young winners meet this afternoon in Houston in the third and final game of this inter-league series. The Pads swept the Astros in three games last season, and will go for another 3-0 sweep today.  But it won't be easy, given the pitching match-up. Neither the Padres' Blake Snell nor the Astros' Zack Greinke will win a Cy Young this season, but both pitchers can still throw a gem when called upon. Snell has been a bit disappointing, though, in his first season in San Diego, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 44 innings, including a 7.85 ERA and 2.01 WHIP on the road. Meanwhile, Greinke has owned the Padres in his career, with a 13-3 record, 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts. And his teams are 161-89 (+44.7 games on the moneyline) in his home career starts, while Snell's teams are 8-16 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) in his last 24 road starts. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -136 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Friday when they beat the Yankees and their star pitcher, Gerrit Cole. This afternoon they go from their All Star $324 Million Man on the mound to little known 22-year-old RH Deivi Garcia. The young Dominican may one day be a star like Cole, but for now he is just trying to make a name for himself on the big stage. Garcia has just seven MLB starts under his belt, and this year he's posted an uninspiring 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his lone start. But Garcia has one of the best lineups in the league backing him up and some pretty good mentors in the clubhouse as well, so he has a great shot at getting his first win of 2021 this afternoon. Despite their surprising loss here last night, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Tigers and 11-5 in the last 16 here at Comerica Park. New York is also 9-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. AL Central Opponents. Take the Yankees to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-28-21 | Giants +171 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 171 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. To say Giants RHP Anthony DeSclafani might want to redeem himself tonight would be a huge understatement. After all, in his last start -- also against these Dodgers -- DeSclafani gave up a career-high 10 runs in 2 2-3 innings. That start was his shortest of the year, and it raised his ERA from 2.03 to 3.54. I look for DeSclafani to bounce back tonight, as his teams are 9-6 (+9.2 games on the moneyline) when installed as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200. And his ERA in his 7 nighttime starts this season is 1.87, with a 0.80 WHIP. Take the Giants as a big underdog on Friday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-28-21 | Blue Jays -152 v. Indians | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. The Jays split a pair of games with the Yanks yesterday with Toronto winning the opening game while NY took the night-cap. That split allowed Toronto to take the three-game series and now the Jays head to Cleveland for a weekend set against a very surprising Indians club. Hyun Jin Ryu joined the Jays before last season and he put up some very good numbers, with the exception of his walk rate, which basically doubled in his first season in Toronto. After walking almost two-and-a-half batters last season, Ryu is back to his normal rate of right around one batter per game. In nine starts covering 53 1/3 innings, the 34-year-old LH is 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a career-best 8.67 K:BB ratio. In his lone career start vs. the Indians, Ryu had a no-decision and allowed two runs in seven innings with eight strikeouts and no walks -- in other words a typical high-quality Ryu outing. Cleveland is 0-5 in its last five home games vs. a LH starter. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-27-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -215 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles. Through his first six starts of the season, young RHP Dylan Cease looked like he might be the second coming of Lucas Giolito. The 25-year-old went 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA, with 22 hits allowed, 40 strikeouts and 15 walks in just over 30 innings. Those are some serious numbers. But Cease hasn't been able to maintain it through his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA, while the 2.66 K:BB ratio he enjoyed in those first six morphed into 1.78 (16 strikeouts with nine walks). Perhaps a start against the last place Orioles, who are currently sitting at 17-32 will be just the thing to get Cease out of his funk. And the fact that the Baltimore lineup has never faced the young fireballer probably doesn't hurt either. This game is in his home park -- Guaranteed Rate Field -- and Cease is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts there so far this season (vs. 1-1 and 4.58 in four starts elsewhere). The Sox are also a perfect 5-0 in Cease's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-27-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -118 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, in Game 2 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery this evening. And the southpaw comes into this game off the best start of his career. In that game, last Friday vs. the White Sox, Montgomery held the Pale Hose hitters to just four hits over seven innings. And he struck out 11, while walking none in a 2-1 victory. The fact that this game is at home under the lights should also benefit him, as his home ERA is 2.52 this season, while his ERA in nighttime starts is 2.12. The Yankees have been dominant as a favorite, priced at -150 or less, as they're 32-13 their last 45. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-26-21 | Padres v. Brewers +123 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. One thing that's generally true about control pitchers is that when their control starts to go, their walk rate goes up, the K rate goes down, and bad things will happen as a result. The latest case in point might be the Padres' Chris Paddack. Last season we saw Paddack maintain that control with a walk rate that was under 2.0 per nine IP (12 total walks in 59 innings). But this season, Paddack has already allowed 11 free passes in just 36 1/3 innings, resulting in that rate climbing to 2.7. And the strikeout rate has gone down as a result. Paddack has just two wins in his eight starts and he has struggled to go very deep in games. He's been the beneficiary of some incredible run support in his last three but that might come to an end tonight. The Brewers will hand the ball to Eric Lauer, who will be facing his former team tonight. Lauer has a nice 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP so far this season. Despite the win on Tuesday, San Diego is just 1-5 in the last five meetings and 2-4 in the last six at Miller Park. Take the Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-26-21 | Royals v. Rays -202 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have faded from their hot start to the season, but they are still a .500 club after last night's upset victory. But getting above .500 tonight will be tough as KC must face the Rays again, and RHP Tyler Glasnow. After posting a somewhat disappointing 4.08 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign, Glasnow has turned things around this season, going 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts covering 62 innings. With all of the openers that the Rays have been using lately, Glasnow is one of the few traditional starters they have left in the regular rotation and that's not likely to change. Glasnow has a career record of 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 20 starts covering 106 2/3 innings here at Tropicana Field. Despite their win last night, the Royals are just 5-14 in the last 19 meetings and 2-6 in the last eight here in St. Pete. Take the Rays. |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Atlanta. Last night, Boston lost its second straight game, as Atlanta won, 3-1, behind veteran Charlie Morton. Tonight, the Red Sox have the advantage on the mound, as the pitching match-up is Nick PIvetta vs. Drew Smyly. Pivetta's teams are 9-0 in his home starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less), while Atlanta's 2-7 this season in interleague games. Take the Red Sox. |
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05-26-21 | Mariners v. A's -166 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners. Oakland's rookie RHP James Kaprielian has been great so far this season. In two starts, he's struck out 15 in just 10 2-3 innings, and allowed just 3 runs and 12 baserunners (2.53 ERA; 1.12 WHIP). He'll match up against Seattle RHP Robert Dugger, who has a 4.15 ERA this season (but a 6.75 ERA in daytime action this season, and an 11.47 ERA in daytime action in his career). The A's are 70-35 (+17 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, while Seattle is 46-74 its last 120 as a road underdog. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners. This season, LHP Cole Irvin has gone from an unknown part-time starter for the Phillies to a legitimate member of the Oakland rotation. The A's had an opening and they gave the 27-year-old southpaw a chance at it and Irvin has not looked back. In nine starts covering just under 53 innings, Irvin is 3-5 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 40 strikeouts with 10 walks for a 4:1 K:BB ratio. This is a problematic match-up for the Mariners, as their lineup is by far the worst vs. left-handed pitching in the Major Leagues. In 389 at-bats vs. southpaws, the M's are hitting a paltry .188 so far. And although Irvin is not overpowering (his fastball maxes out at about 91 MPH), he is a crafty lefthander who could prove troublesome tonight. The A's are 40-14 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 54 games as a home favorite of at least -150. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-25-21 | Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 157 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Jays were swept in four games by the Rays, who have now won 11 in a row. Now, the Blue Jays go to the Bronx for three straight to play a surging Yankees team on their home turf. It's true that Toronto's hitters will be facing a hot pitcher tonight, who is coming off of a no-hitter in his last start. But there is reason to believe that Yankees veteran RH Corey Kluber will regress this evening after his May 19 no-no. First, that achievement was at the Rangers' new Globe Life park, and it was the second no-hitter that's already been thrown at that apparent pitchers' paradise in Arlington, TX. Second, in eight career starts vs. the Jays, Kluber is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA in just over 44 innings. Third, the Yankees hitters will have to face LH Steven Matz, who has a 5-2 record on the season (including 4-1 in his five road starts). We'll take the underdog Blue Jays tonight, as they are 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two teams. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -159 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners. The A's Frankie Montas became a full-time starter in 2018 and after a successful campaign that season and the year after, it seemed as though the sky would be the limit for the then-26-year-old. But the shortened 2020 season was pretty much a disaster for Montas. In 11 starts covering 53 innings, the RHP went 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA and that's certainly not the results the A's wanted coming off of that productive 2019 season. The good news now is that all of Montas' numbers this season are improved from last. In nine starts covering 47 innings, Montas is 5-3 and he has a 3.46 K:BB ratio (45 strikeouts and 13 walks). The 4.79 ERA that he's posted is far from ideal, but after a rough April (2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts), Montas has really made it count this month, going 3-1 with a sparkling 3.22 ERA in four starts covering just over 22 innings. The A's are 13-2 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Montas' last 15 starts as a home favorite. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-24-21 | Rockies v. Mets -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are averaging 2.8 runs per game, and hitting .209 on the road. So, perhaps it's no surprise they've won just two of their 19 games away from Colorado (including 0-7 when priced as an underdog of +150 or less, and 0-10 when the O/U line was less than 8 runs). We'll play against the Rockies in the Big Apple tonight, as the pitching match-up will feature two southpaws: Austin Gomber vs. David Peterson. Gomber's road ERA also leaves a lot to be desired, as he's given up 24 runs (22 earned) in 31 innings (6.35 ERA). The Rockies are 1-5 in his six road starts. Peterson's been effective at home this season, as his ERA is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. And the Mets have won 6 of his 8 home starts, dating back to last season. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-21 | Astros -168 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -168 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. After the Rangers' bats went dormant for a couple of games last week, they decided to wake up big time in this weekend series with their division rivals. Texas plated seven on Friday in a 7-5 extra innings win and then did one better on Saturday, putting an 8-4 hurting on the 'Stros behind two home runs by Rookie-of-the-Year favorite Adolis Garcia. The Cuban slugger has come out of nowhere to put up monster numbers in the first couple of months. If Houston is to turn things around this afternoon, they will need RHP Cristian Javier to quiet the Texas hitters. Javier is following up his excellent rookie season with an even better campaign so far in 2021. Through his first eight starts covering 44 innings, Javier is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts vs. 15 walks for a 3.53 K:BB ratio. He threw seven quality innings against Texas two starts ago at home in a 4-3 Houston victory. The 'Stros are also a perfect 6-0 in Javier's six career starts as a favorite of at least -150. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -168 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. Shane Bieber will start for the Indians this afternoon, and he brings a super 2.70 ERA in his home starts into this contest. Even better: Bieber will make this start with an extra day of rest, and his teams are 19-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his career when he's had an extra day or two of rest. Meanwhile, Twins' righty, Kenta Maeda, has a horrid 6.75 road ERA, with a 1.58 WHIP. And his ERA balloons to 6.23 in his daytime starts. Dating back to last season, the Twins have lost seven of his last nine starts, including a 7-4 loss at Cleveland less than four weeks ago. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-22-21 | Astros -185 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. In a three game series against the visiting Yankees, the Rangers were swept and out-scored 11-4 and they didn't plate a run in the final two games. And on Wednesday, they were no-hit by former teammate Corey Kluber. So last night the Rangers took out their frustrations on the Astros in the first of this three-game series. Last season, Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. did something he hadn't been able to do in his first four seasons in the league. The 27-year-old made 11 starts which -- in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign -- amounted to a full season of work. None-the-less, the veteran wants to prove he can do it under normal conditions, which means 30 starts, and he is on track to do just that. So far, in eight starts covering 46 2/3 innings, McCullers is 3-1 with a very nice 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has allowed just 28 hits with 52 strikeouts. The Astros are also 7-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in McCullers last nine day starts. Take Houston. |
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05-22-21 | White Sox +175 v. Yankees | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the New York Yankees. This is a great match-up today -- at least on paper -- between the two of the top teams in the American League. The White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Cease, who has a 2.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over eight starts. And his ERA in his three daytime starts is 1.80. Cease's mound opponent this afternoon will be Gerrit Cole, who has a 2.03 ERA on the season, with a superb 0.78 WHIP. But Cole also had his worst outing of the season earlier this week at Texas, as he gave up five runs in five innings, in a 5-2 loss. The only good news for Cole was that he got into the record books with his 61st straight strikeout without issuing a walk. This afternoon, Cole will attempt to bounce back against Chicago. But his career ERA vs. the Pale Hose is 6.00. And Cole's teams are also 2-5 his last seven (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200. Take the White Sox as a big underdog on Saturday. |
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05-21-21 | Mets +101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. The Marlins return home after shutting out Philadelphia, 6-0, yesterday behind Sandy Alcantara, while New York had Thursday off following its road trip to Atlanta, where it won two of the three games. The pitching matchup tonight will feature veteran Marcus Stroman for New York, while rookie RHP Jordan Holloway will toe the rubber for the Marlins. And although Holloway has been effective out of the pen (10 1-3 innings of scoreless ball), he's NOT been effective as a starter (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 6 2-3 innings). That doesn't bode well for Miami tonight. Nor does the fact that New York's won five of the last six meetings here in Miami, and has outscored Miami by an average of 2.83 rpg in those six road games. The Marlins are 53-75 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, and 51-80 inside the division. Even worse, they're 89-120 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) off a blowout win by more than three runs, and 29-44 after allowing less than three runs. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies -146 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -146 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Boston Red Sox. Aaron Nola is having another outstanding season for the Phillies, even if it doesn't always show in the won-lost column. The 27-year-old RHP has a 3.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and career-best 6.78 K:BB ratio (61 strikeouts and nine walks) in his eight starts covering 54 1/3 innings. Tonight will be a challenge for sure against a very good Boston lineup, but it seems as though Nola often rises to the level of his competition. And in fact, he has a pretty good history against this Red Sox club. In three career starts against Boston covering 22 innings, Nola is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.64 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with just 12 hits allowed. The fact that he gets this start at home doesn't hurt his chances either as Nola has a career 35-17 record with 2.90 ERA in 77 starts here at Citizens Bank Park (vs. 26-26 and 4.13 in 73 starts on the road). The Phillies are 12-4 (+6 games on the moneyline) in Nola's last 16 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-20-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -129 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. If you were to guess which starting pitchers were tied for the lead in the American League with five victories, Toronto LH Steven Matz and his 4.29 ERA in eight starts would probably not be on your list. But despite that somewhat inflated number, Matz has been very effective this season for his team. And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Jays have one of the best offenses in the game right now. And given that last season was one to forget for the 29-year-old southpaw (0-5 with a 9.68 ERA in nine games -- six starts), the 4.29 number represents a huge turnaround. The Mets traded Matz to the Jays after the 2020 season and Matz certainly has not looked back. Start number nine will his second career outing against the Red Sox. One of the other AL pitchers with five wins is Matz's mound opponent tonight, Boston's Nick Pivetta. Pivetta also came over to the AL East from the NL East (Phillies), and has made two career starts vs. the Jays. Unfortunately, his team lost both of those starts, and his career ERA is 5.40, covering 11 2/3 innings against Toronto. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-19-21 | Brewers -173 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -173 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals. We're barely a month into the season and it seems like Brewers RH starter Corbin Burnes has already made enough history for an entire career. Burnes set the Major League record for the most strikeouts to start a season without issuing a single walk (58). Not surprisingly, his numbers so far this season are off the charts - a 1.57 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate per nine innings. So it's somewhat surprising that Burnes has a losing record (2-3) in his six starts covering just over 34 innings. He'll try to even that record tonight in his second inter-league start of the season (Burnes opened 2021 with a dominant start against the Twins). His only other start against the Royals was a scoreless six inning outing last season in Miller Park and Burnes should find pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium to his liking. Despite their loss on Tuesday, the Brewers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Royals. And they will no doubt be happy to see Brad Keller (and his 9.20 home ERA) on the mound tonight. Keller has made one start vs. the Brew Crew, and it wasn't successful, as he gave up five runs over five innings (9.00 ERA), in a 5-3 defeat. Even worse: Kansas City is a wallet-breaking 31-60 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-19-21 | White Sox -139 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox are atop the Central division, with a 25-16 record, while the Twins are in the basement, with a 14-26 mark. Chicago has been installed as a road favorite this afternoon, and that bodes well, given its 44-16 record when priced from -125 to -175. Even better: Lucas Giolito has led his teams to wins in 28 of 44 road games in his career (+21 games on the moneyline). Meanwhile, the Twins are a poor 8-16 this season in afternoon games, while Matt Shoemaker's clubs have won just 12 of his 32 daytime starts. Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-18-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's early in the season still, but the hard-luck pitching award just might have to go the Cardinals' John Gant. The 28-year-old has a 1.83 ERA in seven starts covering just over 34 innings, and yet Gant's record is just 2-3. Perhaps a start against the 17-23 Pirates will help to turn Gant's fortunes around. Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker has also put up some pretty gaudy numbers this season. In seven starts, the 27-year-old RH is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in just over 38 innings. But he already has a start against the Division-leading Cards and that one was Brubaker's worst start of the season as he allowed three runs on seven hits in just five innings. This has been one of the most lopsided series in the National League recently as the Cardinals are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings. And the Pirates are 23-48 in the last 71 meetings here at Busch Stadium. The Pirates are also 1-6 (-5 games on the moneyline) in Brubaker's last seven road starts. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-18-21 | Red Sox +120 v. Blue Jays | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Toronto. The Red Sox come into this game off a 1-run loss to the Angels, and have been installed as a road underdog tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill. Rodriguez faced Toronto earlier this year, and got the win in a 4-2 Boston victory. His mound opponent then, was also the same as tonight (Hyun-Jin Ryu). Ryu gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in that game, and has a career 5.81 record vs. the Red Sox in four starts. He's 0-3 in those four games. Finally, Boston is 8-1 its last nine as an underdog, and 87-63 its last 150 off a loss. Take the Red Sox. |
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