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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-21 | Phillies -190 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. We played on the Phillies last night, and lost a 4-2 decision. But we will come right back with them this afternoon in this "Getaway Day" game. Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phils, and he's been terrific all season. In 2021, he has a 2.56 ERA and a sparkling 0.98 WHIP in 24 starts. Even better: in his seven career starts vs. Arizona, he is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Phillies are a solid 28-16 (+13.5 games on the moneyline) in daytime action this season, while Arizona is a wallet-busting 11-28 in day games. Take the Phillies. |
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08-19-21 | A's +155 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago White Sox. You can add Cole Irvin's name to the list of pitchers who the Oakland A's have resurrected off the Major League scrap heap and turned into serviceable starters. Sure, Irvin's 8-11 record and 3.52 ERA in 23 starts may not sound like the stuff of aces, but for a back-end starter, who showed nothing of the sort in his first two seasons in the league (with the Phillies), his numbers this year look pretty darn good. And Irvin has performed better this season both on the road (3.30 ERA in 11 starts) and at night (3.27 ERA) than he has at home, and during the day. This will be Irvin's first-ever start against the Sox, and hence his first start at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Sox will go with RH Dylan Cease, who earned a no-decision last weekend vs. the Yankees. The A's are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a RH starter, and 42-15 vs. their last 57 vs. AL Central foes. Take Oakland. |
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08-18-21 | Phillies -164 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last night, the D-Backs won 3-2, behind five strong innings (1 ER, 5K) from Taylor Widener, and a big night at the plate by Josh Vanmeter. Tonight, it will be the Venezuelan lefty, Ranger Suarez, battling Arizona's Humberto Castellanos. Suarez has been terrific all season, as his ERA is 1.07 across 50 1/3 innings, spanning 30 games. And in his three starts this season, Suarez has a sparkling 0.90 ERA, with an 0.90 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have been especially bad this season vs. lefties (8-23, minus 11.6 games on the moneyline), and as an underdog (28-71, minus 29 games). Take Philadelphia with Suarez. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-18-21 | Blue Jays -165 v. Nationals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Washington Nationals. This series marks only the second time that the Blue Jays have visited DC since 2015. Toronto has had success here, and it needs some of that success in this series because the Jays are falling further behind in the race for the AL East title (not to mention a Wild Card spot). To shore up their pitching, the Jays acquired RHP Jose Berrios from the Twins at the trade deadline and he's been just okay for his new team so far. In three Toronto starts, the 27-year-old is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. The good news is that today offers two situations that have favored Berrios in the past. First, in 53 daytime, starts Berrios' record is 26-15, for a winning percentage of .634 (vs. 30-29; .508 in 85 nighttime starts). Second, this is an inter-league match-up and Berrios does well in those too, with a 3.38 ERA in 21 starts covering 120 innings in outings vs. the American League. Despite last night's win (which snapped a 7-game losing streak), the Nationals are still just 11-30 their last 41 games, 5-18 this year as a home underdog, and 4-8 in the last 12 meetings with the Blue Jays. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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08-17-21 | Mariners -148 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. The Mariners looked at LHP Tyler Anderson last month and -- notwithstanding his 5-8 record and 4.35 ERA for the Pittsburgh Pirates -- liked what they saw. So, Seattle exchanged a pair of nondescript minor-league players for Anderson and has been rewarded. In three starts so far with Seattle, Anderson has compiled a 3.45 ERA, and he has 11 strikeouts and two walks in 15 2/3 innings. The only thing missing in his first stint in the American League is a winning decision. His last start was against this Rangers club and, although he came away with another no decision, the Mariners won that one by a 2-1 score. Texas has cleaned house (no Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo, etc) and the result is one of the weakest offenses in the league. The Mariners are 17-6 in the last 23 meetings with Rangers, while Texas is 2-9 in its last 11 games following a win. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-16-21 | Orioles v. Rays -250 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. With about seven weeks to go in the regular season, the low-budget Rays have a healthy three-game lead in the AL East over the Red Sox. With seven games against Orioles left on the schedule (as well as seven games against the Tigers), this four-game set at home is the type of series which the Rays really need to take advantage of, if they are to seal the deal come October 3. The O's are headed for their third straight 100-loss season (ignoring the short 2020 season). And barring some major changes in the off-season, there's a good chance that 2022 won't be much different. Seemingly out of nowhere, Baltimore RH Matt Harvey had three straight quality starts to end the month of July. But August has seen a return to (mediocre) form for the 32-year-old pitcher who comes into tonight with a 6-11 record, and 6.10 ERA, in 23 starts covering 103 1/3 innings. The O's are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings with the Rays and 6-26 in the last 32 here in St. Pete. Meanwhile, Collin McHugh's teams are 14-3 (+8.6 games on the moneyline) in his career when favored at home by -150 (or more). Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets +163 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets and Carlos Carrasco have been installed as a huge home underdog tonight. I have all the respect in the world for Max Scherzer and the Dodgers, but I can't pass up this big price on Carrasco, and especially not at home where the Mets have a 36-22 record, plus 5 games on the moneyline (compared to 23-35 on the road, minus 14.7 games on the moneyline). The Mets are 14-8 this season vs. the NL West, and 46-33 vs. righties. And this will be the first time the Dodgers have faced Carrasco, which I believe confers an advantage to the pitcher. Take the Mets as a huge home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-15-21 | Padres -152 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Craig Stammen began life in the Major Leagues as a starter. In his first season with the Nationals in 2009, Stammen appeared in 19 games -- all as a starter. In the next season, 19 of Stammen's 35 appearances were as a starter. But after a transition to the bullpen later in 2010, Stammen became one of the most reliable middle relievers in the game and pretty much stayed that way through the first half of 2021. But the Padres have been playing around with the strategy of using an opener and Stammen looks like the go-to guy for that as he's had two short starts this season (June 29 and August 10). He'll do it again this afternoon after his team was no-hit last night by Tyler Gilbert in his first Major League start playing for one of the worst teams in the league. Despite their spectacular victory last night, the Diamondbacks are still just 12-45 in their last 57 games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-15-21 | Rockies v. Giants -187 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies. Last night, the Rockies won a rare game as a road underdog, while the Giants lost a rare game as a home favorite this season. Notwithstanding that defeat, Gabe Kapler's Giants are still 33-12 as a home favorite this year, while Colorado is a horrid 13-42 as a road underdog. The matchup this afternoon will feature the Rockies' Jon Gray vs. San Francisco's southpaw, Alex Wood. Unfortunately for Colorado, Gray is 2-6 in his career vs. SF, with a 5.86 ERA. Meanwhile, San Francisco has won Wood's last four starts, and nine of his last 11. Take the Giants. |
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08-15-21 | Rays -168 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -168 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Minnesota Twins. Luis Patino was the main prize for the Rays in the trade that sent Blake Snell to the Padres. Patino finds himself in a Major League rotation at just 21 years of age as the Rays have given him eight starts since he came over (Patino also had a start for the Padres last season). After facing teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Indians in his last five starts, Patino gets some relief this afternoon as he goes up against an inferior Twins lineup. Most important, the Rays are 3-1 in Patino's last four starts with big wins against Boston, New York, and Cleveland. Patino has never faced the Twins before so don't be surprised if he finds Target Field very much to his liking today. Despite their loss last night, the Rays are 25-9 in their last 34 games vs. teams with a losing record and 17-6 in their last 23 vs. AL Central clubs. Take the Rays. |
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08-15-21 | Reds +124 v. Phillies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 124 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Philadelphia Phillies. Sonny Gray has been pitching much better recently than his 4-6 record and 4.40 ERA would seem to indicate. Over the last three starts, Gray is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in 16 innings. The other thing about Gray is that he has a very strong road bias (he probably wishes it was a home bias instead). In 10 starts at Great American, the 31-year-old is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA however in seven starts on the road, Gray's numbers look much better at 3-2 and 3.08. Another thing about today's start is that it's a major revenge situation for him. In his last start vs. today's opponents on June 1, Gray lasted just 4 2/3 innings in a 17-3 beatdown administered by the Phillies. Prior to that one however, the Reds had won both of Gray's starts vs. the Phils (both in 2019). Through his career, Gray has done his best work in daytime games. In 78 day games (74 starts) he is 30-23 with a 3.34 number. Take Cincy. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-14-21 | Blue Jays -148 v. Mariners | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -148 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. Hyun Jin Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in the Majors since he came into the league back in 2013. That's why it's always surprising when he throws in a real clunker -- as he did in his last start. On August 8, Ryu lasted only 3 2/3 innings (his shortest outing of the season) while allowing seven runs on 10 hits. Two things about that one however: first, it was against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Red Sox, and second, the Blue Jays won anyway, 9-8. In fact the Jays have won each of Ryu's last six starts going back to July 7. The veteran LH is in a great position to bounce back from that last start tonight against the Mariners. Seattle has the lowest batting average in the American League vs. southpaws at .224 and the second lowest OBP at .294. Meanwhile, the Jays have some of the best team numbers against lefties and they get to face one as well in Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle is 1-6 in its last seven games vs. southpaw starters. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-14-21 | Yankees +117 v. White Sox | Top | 7-5 | Win | 117 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. It's back to reality tonight for these two teams. After a special game on Thursday night played at the Field of Dreams complex in Dyersville, Iowa (the first of what may be many MLB contests there), the Yanks and White Sox had the day off on Friday. Thursday's game was not only historic, it was also exciting (especially for us, as we had Chicago as our MLB Game of the Month). In a "made for TV" moment, the Sox won 9-8 in the bottom of the ninth by way of a walk-off home run by Tim Anderson (they may have to move the fences -- and cornfields -- back in that ballpark before the next game there). Tonight these two teams are back to Chicago for Game 2 of this series as RHs Jameson Taillon and Dylan Cease face off on the mound. Taillon is 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 22 starts in his first season in pinstripes, and his teams are 15-5 in his 20 starts vs. winning opposition. In two career starts vs. the Sox, Taillon has a 1.69 ERA in 13 2/3 innings and he looks to continue that success tonight. Cease's only previous start vs. the Yanks was earlier this year when he allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings in a 7-0 Chicago loss. Chicago has been great against lefties the past two seasons (38-14), but pedestrian vs. righties. And Chicago's also burned money vs. the better teams, with win percentages between .540 and .620, as it's 17-29 (minus 14.3 games on the moneyline). Meanwhile, the Yankees excel against the best clubs, as they're 36-17 (+19.2 games) vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 1+ runs per game. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-14-21 | Dodgers v. Mets +168 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Taijuan Walker looked like an All Star during the first half of this season. And in fact, when Jacob deGrom couldn't go to the game, he lobbied for his teammate and Walker found himself at the mid-summer Classic last month for the first time. With or without deGrom's help, Walker deserved to be there on the strength of his numbers (7-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 first-half starts). But since then, the wheels have not only come off, they're gone careening down the freeway. Since the break, the 29-year-old RH is 0-4 with a 9.86 ERA in five starts. But injuries had something to do with those numbers as Walker tried to pitch through some arm issues. Those appear to be behind him now and his last start was better (three runs on four hits in six IP). It's no easy task facing the Dodgers but Walker has had some good results against them in the past. He owns a career 3-1 record and his teams (Seattle and Arizona) are 5-2 in his last seven starts vs. Los Angeles. Even better: Walker's teams are 12-4 in his career when priced as a home underdog, while the Dodgers have won just two of Buehler's 10 road starts vs. teams from the NL East. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-13-21 | Braves -180 v. Nationals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. With Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes all moved at the trading deadline, the Nats figure to face some very long days coming up. In fact, with the total house-cleaning that DC has undergone, don't be surprised if it has one of the worst second-half records when all is said and done. The Braves seem to be moving in the opposite direction, finally putting up a winning record after spending almost the entire first half under the .500 mark. Charlie Morton goes to the mound tonight for the visitors. In 23 starts, the 37-year-old RHP is 10-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 128 innings. This will be his third start of the season vs. the Nats. In two starts vs. DC (May 31 and August 7), Morton is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings. This season Morton has done his best work on the road, with a 3.10 ERA in nine road starts. The Braves are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings against the Nats and 5-0 in the last five here at Nationals Park. Take Atlanta. |
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08-13-21 | Blue Jays -170 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. This is a rematch of the game played back on June 29 between these teams. Toronto won that game, 9-3, behind 6 solid innings from lefty Robbie Ray, who struck out 10 Mariners, and gave up just 5 hits. Chris Flexen was less effective, as he gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 5 innings. We'll take the Jays and Ray tonight, as Ray has given up just 9 runs in his last 7 starts, covering 43 2/3 innings (1.85 ERA; 0.96 WHIP). Meanwhile, Flexen has been trending in the opposite direction, as his ERA over his last three starts is an ugly 6.89, with a 1.72 WHIP. The Blue Jays are a solid 19-9 as a road favorite of -125 (or more), while Robbie Ray's teams are 23-13 (+5.6 games on the moneyline) in his career when priced as a road favorite. Finally, the Mariners are a wallet-busting 46-69 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-13-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -225 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox will get a boost this weekend with the expected return of ace Chris Sale to the mound. The fact that the Sox have managed to stay this competitive in the AL East without Sale this season is a testament to the rest of the pitching staff. No one exemplifies that more than veteran RH Nick Pivetta. The 28-year-old Canadian came over from the Phillies a year ago and he has played this season on an MLB minimum salary and has more than pulled his weight at the back end of the rotation. In 22 starts, Pivetta is 8-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in just over 118 innings. He has a great chance to improve those numbers tonight as Pivetta has already beaten the O's both times he's faced them this season -- on April 11 and May 9. Those were in Baltimore so this will be his first start against them at Fenway in 2021. In fact Pivetta has beaten the O's in all five of his starts against them (three with the Red Sox and two with the Phillies). Take Boston. |
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08-13-21 | Dodgers -146 v. Mets | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets. Tylor Megill burst on the scene earlier this season for the Mets and for a while it looked like his name would be in the Rookie of the Year discussions. By the end of July, Megill was 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA and the Mets had won six of his seven starts. Maybe the league caught up to him or maybe it was something else, but August has seen a different Megill go to the mound so far. In two starts this month (at Miami and Philadelphia) Megill is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 9 2/3 innings. Although he's back home tonight, things won't get easier for the 26-year-old as the Dodgers come into Queens sporting one of the most lethal lineups in the game. They've got a pretty good pitcher on the mound too as Julio Urias goes for his 24th start of 2021. The 25-year-old southpaw leads the league with 13 victories and has logged a 3.41 ERA in 134 2/3 innings as well. L.A. is 38-17 in the last 55 meetings with New York and 21-7 in the last 28 in Queens. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-12-21 | Padres -200 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -200 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Baseball is a team sport, but if the Padres are going to have any chance of catching the Dodgers and/or Giants, they're going to need certain individual players to step up in the final seven weeks of the season. No Padres player is that more true for than veteran RH Yu Darvish. Darvish's numbers would be fine for say a number three starter, but not what you would expect from an ace. In 22 starts covering 128 2/3 innings, Darvish is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA and he's lost his last four decisions and hasn't won a game since June 21. That one was against tonight's opponent as well. Although he didn't win his last start, Darvish pitched very well allowing just two earned runs on four hits in seven innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks while the Pads cruised to a 6-2 win. And the opponent in that one? You guessed it -- the D-Backs. Darvish's teams have won seven of his last eight starts vs. Arizona going back to August of 2013. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -154 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the New York Yankees. The schedule may say Yankees at White Sox but this game is being played in Dyersville, Iowa at the iconic Field of Dreams ballpark. Carlos Rodon was originally scheduled to make this start, but he's landed on the DL which means veteran RHP Lance Lynn will get the call on this historic occasion. Lynn comes into this -- his 21st start of 2021 -- having no-decisions in his last two outings (vs. the Indians and Cubs). It's the first time this season that Lynn has gone two straight starts without a decision. Most of the time, those decisions have been wins, and even when he doesn't get the "W", the White Sox usually end up on the winning side of the score -- as in those last two starts. This is Lynn's first start of the season vs. the team he played for in 2018 but he's faced the Yanks four times in the past with some decent results (2-2 with a 3.60 ERA). LHP Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Yanks and the Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. southpaw starters. Take Chicago. As always good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-12-21 | Rays +122 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-1 | Win | 122 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. Last night, we played on the Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi against the Rays and easily won, 20-8. But off that offensive explosion (Boston's highest-scoring game since 2015), we'll fade the Red Sox and Nick Pivetta this afternoon. Notwithstanding yesterday's defeat, Tampa is still 6-1 its last seven vs. Boston. And it's 31-13 in day games this season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are an awful 25-32 (minus 24.4 games on the moneyline) in daytime games at Fenway Park, and 30-46 (minus 25.9 games) at home vs. winning teams. Take Tampa. |
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08-12-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies +130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 130 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lefty Ranger Suarez will start this afternoon for the Phillies, and he's been terrific in 2021. He's made 29 appearances (including two starts), and has an ERA below 1 run a game (0.98 ERA), with a WHIP of 0.85. For the season, the Phillies are 26-15 in day games, and they're also 8-2 their last 10 games. Take the Phillies. |
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08-11-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -175 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
t 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Southpaw Tyler Anderson will make his 3rd career start vs. Texas, and his ERA in his first two was 2.92. Tonight, Anderson will have a decided advantage vs. Texas starter Spencer Howard, who has a 5.47 ERA (and 7.00 in his last three starts) and a 1.37 WHIP. In contrast, Anderson's WHIP is a solid 1.19, and his ERA in his home starts is 3.31. We'll fade the Rangers on the road tonight, as they're a dreadful 44-102 as road underdogs, 14-43 in nighttime road games (minus 19.2 games on the moneyline), and 16-47 on the road vs. American League pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 (or better). Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -113 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Tampa. The Rays have won five straight coming into this middle game of a 3-game set. But they'll have a disadvantage on the mound tonight, with Josh Fleming matching up against Nathan Eovaldi. Fleming brings a 4.93 ERA in his 10 starts into this game, including a 6.67 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Eovaldi has done his best work at home this season, as his ERA at Fenway is 3.30, with a 1.12 WHIP. Take the Red Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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08-11-21 | White Sox -160 v. Twins | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins. Lance Lynn comes into this -- his 21st start of 2021 -- having no-decisions in his last two outings (against the Indians and Cubs). And it's the first time this season that Lynn has gone two straight starts without getting a decision. Most of the time, those decisions are wins, and even when he doesn't get the "W", the White Sox usually end up on the winning side of the score. Today he faces the Twins -- a team he's been very dominant against already this season. In four starts against Minny covering 24 innings, Lynn is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and two of those starts came here at Target Field. Eight of his 20 starts this season were in the afternoon, and in those, the 34-year-old RHP is 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. With the Sox 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Twins and 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Minneapolis, we'll take Chicago on Wednesday afternoon. |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros -174 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Colorado Rockies. Veteran RHP Jake Odorizzi currently sits at the back end of the Houston rotation, and most pitchers would be happy to be in that position. The first place 'Stros lead the AL West by two games over the A's going into this week. But if Odorizzi doesn't improve his numbers, he will likely find himself in the bullpen come playoff time. The 31-year-old is 4-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) covering 63 2/3 innings, including a 7-5 loss to the Dodgers six days ago. A match-up with the Rockies and veteran RHP Jon Gray awaits tonight and that's not a bad thing. In 29 career inter-league starts covering 154 1/3 innings, Odorizzi is 10-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Thankfully, this start is at home and not in run-happy, mile-high Denver, as Houston is 120-59 its last 179 at home, while Gray's teams are 28-44 (minus 12.6 games on the moneyline) in his 72 career starts on the road. Houston is also 20-7 in its last 27 inter-league home games vs. teams with losing records, and Odorizzi's been very profitable (18-7, +10.3 games on the moneyline) when working on an extra day or two of rest. Take the 'Stros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-21 | Angels +136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 136 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Toronto Blue Jays. This game is between two teams that are desperately trying to stay in the playoff chase in their respective divisions. The thing that's different about Game 1 is the fact that although today's twin-bill is being played at Angels Stadium, Toronto is the "home" team in the opener which means the Angels will bat first and can potentially give young rookie RHP Chris Rodriguez some runs -- and extra confidence -- before he takes the mound. For the purposes of today's game, it's most useful to look at the 22-year-old's last outing on August 2 which was his first start of the season. In that one, Rodriguez threw six efficient innings (86 pitches) allowing three earned runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. Heading into this critical four-game series, the Halos are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Jays and 20-8 in the last 28 "road" meetings. L.A. is also 10-1 in its last 11 opening games of a double-header. Take the Angels. |
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08-10-21 | Brewers -208 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, in Game 1 of their double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew must be considered serious contenders this season, given their pitching staff. In addition to this afternoon's starter - Freddy Peralta -- the Brewers boast top-flight starters in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser. This will be Peralta's 21st start of the season, and Milwaukee has won 14 of his first 20. His ERA is a solid 2.25, with a spectacular 0.86 WHIP. He's also dominated the division rival Cubs this season, as the Brewers have won all four of Peralta's starts (21 IP, 10 Hits, 5 ER, 33 strikeouts). We'll take Milwaukee this afternoon vs. Chicago, as Milwaukee's won the last five meetings by a combined score of 41-15. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-21 | Yankees -165 v. Royals | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. After Jameson Taillon had his second Tommy John surgery, he decided to sit out the entire 2020 season. Little did he know that that would be his last season with Pirates as, at the beginning of this season, the 29-year-old was traded to the New York Yankees. No doubt Taillon is happy to be with a winning organization and his 7-4 record and 4.04 ERA in 21 starts is proof that he has responded positively to the change of scenery. Taillon will get his 22nd start of the season tonight in Kansas City, a city he's not pitched in before. He may have never thrown a pitch in Kauffman Stadium, but Taillon is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two starts against the Royals covering 13 1/3 innings. Moreover, although his record on the season may be only 7-4, the Yankees have been dominating with Taillon on the mound recently, going 7-1 in his last eight trips to the hill. The Yanks are also 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Royals and 4-1 in the last five in Kansas City. Finally, the Yankees are 46-24 at night (compared to 15-26 in the daytime). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -276 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego's been installed as a big favorite tonight in this game, which features the Padres' RHP Yu Darvish vs. the D-Backs' RHP, Taylor Widener. Darvish has made eight prior starts vs. Arizona, and he is a solid 4-1, with a 3.11 ERA. Historically, Arizona has been awful as an underdog. Even though we're playing the Padres on the run-line this evening, it's worth noting that, this season, the DBacks are 24-66 as a dog, minus 31.2 net games on the moneyline. And they're 18-85 their last 103 as a dog of +200 or higher (minus 45.2 net games on the moneyline). We'll take the Padres -1.5 runs tonight, as they're 10-2 this season as a home favorite with Darvish on the mound. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -190 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will start Michael Pineda tonight. He's made 10 prior starts vs. Houston, and he's compiled an ugly 5.18 ERA, with a 1.30 WHIP. His teams have won just three of those 10 games. And in his career he's cashed just 16% when priced as an underdog of +150 (or higher). Minnesota is a soft 11-20 (minus 4.4 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog this season, while Houston is 113-52 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite. Take the Astros. |
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08-07-21 | Mets -102 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. With injuries to Vince Velazquez and Zach Eflin, the Phillies have had to dig deep into their pitching reserves to come up with a starter for tonight's game against the Mets. They think they've found one in 25-year-old Venezuelan LH Ranger Suarez. Suarez was used exclusively as a reliever until last Monday when he got the call against the Nationals. He only went three innings in that one so expect a similar outing tonight. Going opposite Suarez will be red-hot rookie RH Tylor Megill of the Mets. Megill is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts covering 40 1/3 innings. This will be the 26-year-old's first career start against the Phillies and despite Megill having only one victory on his ledger coming in, the Mets are 6-2 in his starts. Additionally, the Mets are 7-4 in the last 11 meetings, and are 16-8 in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record (including 6-2 in their last eight road games vs. winning foes). Take New York. |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -201 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -201 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. As the season wears on, it appears more and more likely that both NL Wild Card teams will come from the West. But while the Giants and Dodgers continue their winning ways, the Padres are having some issues and are starting to fall further behind in the Division. The next two weeks are critical for the Pads as they have series against losing teams (the D-Backs, Marlins, Rockies). Tonight it will be 21-year-old rookie LH Ryan Weathers going to mound for the home team. Weathers has been a nice surprise for San Diego, logging a 4-3 record with a 3.65 ERA in 19 games -- 13 starts -- covering 66 2/3 innings. This will be Weathers first "real" start against Arizona. He had a scoreless relief appearance and picked up the save vs. the D-Backs in his first game of the season and then acted as an opener against them on April 28, throwing a scoreless inning in a 12-3 San Diego romp. The D-Backs are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Petco. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-21 | Twins v. Astros -216 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -216 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Over the years, I've loved to back Zack Greinke at home, as he's been phenomenal in that role (and especially when favored by -150 (or more), as he's 97-32 (+37.4 net games)). The Astros are also 57-18 as a home favorite of -200 (or more). Lay the big price. |
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08-06-21 | Red Sox +132 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi made his first career All Star game appearance last month. His selection was based on a first half that included a 9-5 record and a 3.66 ERA in 18 starts. But since then, victories have been elusive for the 31-year-old RH as he is win-less in three second-half starts. The good news is, that despite the victory drought, Eovaldi has pitched very well so it seems clear that the wins will come -- hopefully sooner rather than later if the Sox are to keep up with the Rays in the AL East. His 22nd start will come tonight against a Jays team that he's had some success against. Although Eovaldi is just 1-1 lifetime against Toronto (eight appearances; seven starts), his teams have won four of his last five starts vs. the Jays going back to May of 2016 when he was a member of the Yankees. The Sox are 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Jays and 37-16 in the last 53 in Toronto. Take Boston. |
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08-06-21 | Mets -100 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. After stints with the Twins (seven seasons) and the Rangers (the better part of two seasons), Kyle Gibson now finds himself back with the team that originally drafted him in 2006. The Phillies traded for the 33-year-old RHP at the deadline in an effort to shore up their rotation. But despite Gibson's recent success with Texas, this is still a pitcher with a losing career record (76-77) and an ERA right around four-and-a-half runs. The Jury is still out as to whether Gibson will be much help to a Phillies club that is struggling to stay above the .500 mark. Marcus Stroman will get his 23rd start tonight. Despite a 7-10 record, the veteran RH has sharp 2.80 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 122 innings. In nine career appearances against the Phils (seven starts), Stroman is 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 40 innings. Stroman loves pitching at Citizens Bank Park as he is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in four games here (three starts) covering 18 1/3 innings. Take the Mets. |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -149 v. Cubs | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. Lance Lynn has been one of the best pitchers this season. In 19 starts, his ERA is 2.07, with a 1.05 WHIP. And in daytime starts, he has a 1.37 ERA, with an 0.84 WHIP. It doesn't get any better than that. He'll match up against the Cubbies' Kyle Hendricks this afternoon. Hendricks has underperformed here at home this season, as his ERA is north of 4 runs a game (4.37), while his WHIP is 1.35. Even worse: Hendricks' career ERA vs. the ChiSox is 3.75, while his teams have won just two of his eight starts. With the Cubs a dreadful 30-56 (minus 20.6 games on the moneyline as an underdog of +150 (or less), we'll fade the Cubs in this home underdog role this afternoon. |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -182 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -182 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. At age 33, Dallas Keuchel no longer possesses the skills to be a #1 or #2 starter. The good news for the veteran LH now is that on this White Sox team, he doesn't have to be. In fact with the emergence of Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon, Keuchel can enjoy life at the back-end of a stacked rotation that is almost certainly headed for a long post-season run. The acquisition of Ryan Tepera and Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs have made the Sox a team with few if any holes right now. Keuchel goes in start number 21 tonight in the third game of this home series vs. KC. He did lose to the Royals two starts back on the road. However, for his career, Keuchel is 6-2 vs. the Royals with a 2.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 12 starts covering 75 innings. Additionally, this season, Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts) here at Guaranteed Rate Field vs. just 3-3 and 4.88 with a 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts on the road. Finally, his mound opponent, Daniel Lynch, was bombed by Chicago back on May 8. He didn't make it out of the first inning, as he gave up 8 runs in 2/3 of an inning (107.46 ERA), in a 9-1 defeat. Notwithstanding its lost last night to Carlos Hernandez, the Sox are still 35-12 their last 47 vs. lefties. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-04-21 | Giants -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Of all the things the Braves wish they could have done differently a few years ago (as they head towards a sub-.500 season), the biggest regret just might be placing Kevin Gausman on waivers in 2019. Gausman was claimed by the Reds prior to being signed by the Giants at the end of that year. The patience exercised by San Francisco -- which Atlanta apparently didn't have -- is paying off big time this season. In 21 starts covering 126 1/3 innings, the RH is 9-5 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and has to be considered one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young. Start number 22 comes tonight against a Diamondbacks team which Gausman has already defeated twice in 2021. Moreover, in seven career games vs. Arizona (six starts) Gausman is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in just under 38 innings (while Arizona's Zac Gallen is 1-4 vs. SF, with a 5.16 ERA in five starts). Despite losing on Tuesday, the Giants are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings with the D-Backs (including 10-2 this season), and 56-28 in the last 84 in Arizona. Finally, the D-Backs are a woeful 9-37 (minus 20.5 games on the moneyline) when priced as an underdog of +150 (or more) this season. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-04-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. An emotional 2019 campaign in which he survived cancer gave way to a pandemic-shortened 2020 comeback season for veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. Then more emotion at the start of 2021 when Carrasco was sent from Cleveland to New York as part of the blockbuster trade which also transported Francisco Lindor to the Mets. But a hamstring injury in the spring delayed Carrasco's Big Apple debut, as he missed the entire first half of the season. No doubt, fans and coaches alike were on pins and needles as Carrasco finally got his first 2021 start last Friday. And he did not disappoint. Carrasco threw four solid innings at home against the Reds, allowing just one run on three hits with four strikeouts. I expect Carrasco to be stretched out to more than the 58 pitches he threw in that game last week. And tonight, he'll be facing a team which he's dominated in his career. In two starts vs. the Marlins covering 11 1/3 innings, Carrasco has not allowed a run, with 15 strikeouts and only one walk. Finally, Carrasco's teams are a fantastic 26-8 as a road favorite, priced from -125 to -175, with him on the hill, while the Marlins are 1-6 as an underdog behind Zach Thompson. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-21 | Mets -160 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. One player who is probably glad to see July come to an end is the Mets' Taijuan Walker. The 28-year-old RH ended the month of June with a 6-3 record and a sparkling 2.38 ERA in 14 starts. But fast forward to now, and Walker is 7-5 and his ERA has risen all the way to 3.71 due to a mostly-disastrous last 31 days. Walker will try to get back to his earlier form now that August is here and he'll kick things off with his 20th start of the season, and it will come against the Marlins. Walker also faced Miami in his first start of the season and he tossed six quality innings at home against the Fish, allowing two runs on four hits in a 3-2 Mets victory. A repeat of that performance -- this time in south Florida -- would be just what the doctor ordered for Walker who is hoping to have an impact the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Despite their win on Monday, the Marlins are just 4-8 in their last 12 home games and 3-6 in their last nine vs. teams with winning records. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-02-21 | Mariners +143 v. Rays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 143 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Tampa Bay Rays. The surprising Mariners added an arm to their rotation at the deadline in the form of LHP Tyler Anderson from the Pirates. They also added a bullpen arm, acquiring Diego Castillo from the Rays. But Seattle did not improve the offense and those pitching moves have to be considered minor at this point. With the M's falling further behind in the AL West, you have to assume they are putting their faith in their youngsters, some of which have already made an impact this season. Chris Flexen will get his 20th start of the season tonight. The 27-year-old's decision to play in Korea in 2020 after being released by the Mets the year before is looking like a brilliant move right now. After having a very successful campaign overseas, Flexen was signed by the M's and is having his best season in the Majors by far. In 19 starts, Flexen is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA and the M's are 13-6 in his starts (+9.8 games on the moneyline). This season, Flexen has been the 3rd most profitable starter in all of baseball to bet on. Seattle is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings (including a 4-0 sweep of Tampa in June), and 14-5 in the last 19 in St. Pete. In one of those wins earlier this season, Seattle roughed up Tampa starter Michael Wacha for five runs and 11 hits over 3 2/3 innings. Wacha's career ERA is 8.25 vs. Seattle. Take the underdog Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-02-21 | Mets -133 v. Marlins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. This will be an action play, as we won't list either pitcher (the Mets are scheduled to start Tylor Megill, while the Marlins will either start a reliever, or call up a pitcher from the minors). Miami scored just one run on Sunday, and has tallied just four runs over their last three games. Certainly, the Marlins' trades last week of OF Adam Duvall and OF Starling Marte (their best positional player) contributed to this recent offensive drought. The Mets got a big boost to their offense with the addition of IF Javier Baez from the Cubs but they did not land a big starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Part of their thinking was that they will be getting Jacob deGrom back, but word just came two days ago that the best pitcher in the game has suffered a setback and deGrom will likely now miss all of August. No doubt the Mets are glad that a guy like RH rookie Megill has come out of nowhere to be a huge factor in their rotation since the end of June. The 26-year-old just looked like another average starter through two June starts but July was another story. Megill went 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA and and 1.08 WHIP in five July starts covering 26 innings. More importantly is the fact that including those two June outings, the Mets are 6-1 in Megill's games heading into start number eight tonight. The Marlins are 13-40 after scoring less than three runs in their previous game, and 50-85 (minus 12.2 games on the moneyline) as a home dog priced from +125 to +175. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-01-21 | Red Sox +146 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. RHP Nick Pivetta only had two starts with the Red Sox last season after coming over from the Phillies in a trade at the end of August. But those two starts were very good and seemed to point to a potential break-out campaign this season. That breakout hasn't happened and the 28-year-old Canadian has struggled at times despite some very good run support from his offense. In 20 starts covering 107 2/3 innings, Pivetta is 8-4 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. But one team Pivetta hasn't struggled against is the Rays. In two starts vs. Tampa covering 11 2/3 innings this season, Pivetta has yet to allow a run while surrendering just two hits and striking out 12 Rays batters. One of those outings was at Tropicana Field and Pivetta will try to build on those numbers here again tonight in prime time. Boston has excelled in division games, as the Sox are 29-13 in their last 42 games vs. teams from the AL East. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-21 | Rockies v. Padres -165 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Reiss Knehr was the 20th round selection by the Padres in the 2018 June Amateur Draft. The 24-year-old RHP tore his way through the Minors and finally got his call to join the Show this season. An oblique injury to Chris Paddack has given Knehr the opportunity to join the Big League club and with the Padres not picking up any starting pitchers at the recently-concluded trade deadline, Knehr could be in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Knehr's first career MLB start was July 9 and it just happened to be right here against this afternoon's opponent, the Rockies. The Pads won that game 4-2 although Knehr didn't factor in the decision. He's looking for his first MLB victory in a repeat of that game today. Despite their wins on Friday and Saturday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Pads here at Petco Park. Take San Diego. |
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08-01-21 | Astros +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Francisco Giants. The Astros took the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach at the trade deadline. It appears the only deal that the first place Astros made last week was acquiring pitchers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero from Seattle on Tuesday. With a pretty cozy 5 1/2 game lead in AL West, the 'Stros no doubt figured they were in a pretty good place and didn't need more than some minor tweaks. This series with the Giants could be a World Series preview and although that would have sounded like a crazy proposition a few months ago, it sure doesn't seem so nutty right now. Houston will go with RHP Luis Garcia this afternoon. The 24-year-old, second year rookie came out of nowhere this season to make quite an impact in a rotation that was already pretty solid. In 19 games (17 starts), Garcia is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 96 innings. In two previous inter-league starts this season, Garcia is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. Take Houston. |
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07-31-21 | Rockies v. Padres -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Prior to Friday night, the Padres needed their ace, Yu Darvish to step it up. Now that San Diego has lost out on the Max Scherzer sweepstakes to their NL West rival Dodgers, the urgency for Darvish to pitch better and win some games is even more intensified. The 34-year-old Japanese RH is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 20 starts covering just under 116 innings, but Darvish hasn't won a game in more than a month (June 21) and the Pads are 1-3 in his July starts. But those three San Diego defeats came on the road. Tonight Darvish is back in his home park where he's done by far his best work this season. In 12 home starts, Darvish is 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA vs. 2-3 and 4.03 in 8 road starts and the Padres are 10-2 in Darvish's starts here at Petco Park this season. In five career starts vs. Colorado, Darvish is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Despite their victory here on Friday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in San Diego. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds. MLB just wrapped up the biggest non-waiver trade period in its history with more All Stars changing teams than at any other time in the past. Many of those occurred within the last 24 hours, which means that some of the trades that took place earlier in the week are all but forgotten at this point. One such trade was when the Rays inexplicably traded veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets. The Mets have since made other, more major moves -- like acquiring IF Javier Baez from the Cubs -- but the Hill trade may prove to be as important as anything they do in the 2nd half. Hill gets his 21st start of the season and his second for the Mets tonight and although he didn't win his Mets debut last Sunday, his team was victorious in that one over a very good Blue Jays squad. Hill has a lot of experience against the Reds from his time with the Cubs. In 13 games (11 starts) vs. Cincy, the 41-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 62 innings. Take New York. |
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07-31-21 | Red Sox +103 v. Rays | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox got help at the trade deadline in the areas of offense and relief pitching, picking up OF Kyle Schwarber and RP Hansel Robles. But the starting pitchers -- there were plenty available -- landed in cities other than Boston. This means the rotation which got the Sox to this point will have to continue to do its job the rest of the season. That includes All Star RH starter Nathan Eovaldi who gets his 21st start of the season tonight. It comes against a very tough opponent in the Rays, but Eovaldi should be up to the task. The 31-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 116 innings and his only other start this season against the Rays was a good one. In his second start of the season on April 7, Eovaldi threw seven strong innings, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in a 9-2 Boston rout. RH Ryan Yarbrough gets the ball for Tampa, and although he's 6-4 overall in 2021, Yarbrough is just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 home games (seven starts). Take Boston. |
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07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Minnesota Twins. This is an action play for us today -- Please do not list pitchers. With the MLB trade season upon us, there are still plenty of quality players -- especially pitchers -- rumored to be moving before today's 4:00 deadline. The Twins had been scheduled to hand the ball to Jose Berrios, but he's off to Toronto. No one is clamoring over LH Wade LeBlanc of the Cardinals however. The 36-year-old has already switched teams multiple times in 2021 and he is scheduled to get his seventh start of the season tonight. Since signing with St. Louis in mid-June, LeBlanc has done some good work, posting a 3.45 ERA in nine games -- including five starts -- covering 28 2/3 innings. He'll try to add to those solid numbers with a start against a Twins team that has already begun dismantling itself. Interleague play of this type has not been kind to the Twins who are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. an NL left-handed starter (and 11-25 their last 36 vs. lefties, overall). Even worse: on the road, when priced between +125 and -125, the Twins are a horrid 9-21. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-21 | Mariners -152 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers offense has been simply abominable, and that's with slugger Joey Gallo in the lineup almost every day. But yesterday, Texas shipped Gallo off to the Yankees for a bundle of prospects, so imagine how anemic the Rangers run production is going to be the rest of this season? And there's still time to trade more quality players, and RHP Kyle Gibson is a hot commodity and could easily be dealt before today's 4:00 pm deadline. It's tough enough when the Texas lineup is facing an average or below-average starter, but RH rookie Logan Gilbert is looking like anything but that right now. The former #14 overall draft pick (2018) is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA and a 5.15 K:BB ratio in 12 starts for the M's covering 56 2/3 innings. He's likely licking his chops for start number 13 tonight against what will be a depleted batting order. Seattle is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings with Texas while the Rangers are 6-18 in their last 24 vs. teams from the AL West (their own division). Take the M's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Rays | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Max Scherzer sweepstakes have come and gone and the stud starter won't be heading to Boston or San Diego as many people thought he might. There's still time for the Sox to land a starter (as of this writing) but it's unlikely it would be anyone near the caliber of Scherzer, who (along with teammate Trea Turner) will now play for a loaded Dodgers squad. That's good news for LHP Martin Perez who gets his 21st start of the season tonight. Admittedly, Perez hasn't been very good through most of his campaign in Boston, so far. But thanks to the Sox offense, he has a winning record at 7-6. This will be Perez's first start of the season vs. the Rays since his opening start on April 6 -- a game won the Red Sox, 6-5. Boston's done very well this season with these intra-division match-ups as the Sox are 29-11 in their last 40 games vs. teams from the AL East. Boston is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Rays and 18-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in its last 27 games as a road underdog. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-29-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. The game between these two AL East contenders on Tuesday night was postponed so the Jays and Sox played a double-header on Wednesday. Toronto took the first game and then Boston came back in the night-cap behind rookie RHP Tanner Houck. Now it's up to veteran LHP Hyun Jin Ryu if the Jays are to get away with a series split (Boston also won on Monday). Ryu's ERA is higher than the last two seasons at 3.44, but the 34-year-old has a 9-5 record in 19 starts covering 110 innings and he is traditionally a strong second half performer. For his career, Ryu has a 2.86 ERA after the All Star break. Ryu also has a career 3.00 ERA in three starts here at Fenway Park. In Ryu's last start vs. the Sox, he threw seven shutout innings allowing just four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in an 8-0 Toronto rout on May 18. The opposing starter that day was southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez who is starting tonight as well. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. We played on Los Angeles last night, and easily got the $$$$ in an 8-0 Dodger win. David Price will be on the mound for LA this afternoon. Unfortunately, Los Angeles has lost his last 4 starts. And Price's teams are an awful 3-9 his last 12 starts. The Giants have dominated lefties over the past 2 seasons, with a 32-22 record (+17 games on the moneyline). And they're also a powerful 24-15 as an underdog this season (+16.4 games on the moneyline). Take the Giants as a home underdog. |
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07-29-21 | White Sox -176 v. Royals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -176 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Kansas City. Last night, the White Sox, with big RHP Lucas Giolito, lost in 10 innings to the Royals, who started Kris Bubic. And that lowered Chicago's run vs. lefty starters to 34-10, and its great record this season as a favorite to 51-26 (+10.1 games on the moneyline), and 103-51 (+29.1 net games) their last 154. In contrast, when installed as an underdog, the ChiSox are 9-16 (minus 6.4 games) this season. And they're also under water vs. righties, with a 41-32 overall record -- but minus 0.5 games on the moneyline. This afternoon, the match-up will be southpaw Carlos Rodon vs. KC lefty Carlos Hernandez. KC is a wallet-busting 45-71 in day games, and was held to 0 runs over six innings (with 8 strikeouts) the last time Rodon faced the Royals here in Kansas City, back in May (a 3-0 White Sox win). Rodon is 5-1 this season in his 9 road starts, with a 1.90 ERA. Meanwhile, Hernandez's ERA is an ugly 8.10. With Chicago excelling against lefties, and also when installed as a favorite, we'll back the White Sox this afternoon. |
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07-28-21 | Dodgers -130 v. Giants | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Last night, the Dodgers lost yet another 1-run game this season (they lead the league in that unfortunate category). Still, Los Angeles is a solid 61-41 on the season. But if not for 1-run losses and/or extra-inning defeats, the Dodgers would have the best record in baseball. Tonight, they'll turn to their ace, Walker Buehler. And all the young hurler has done in his career vs. San Francisco is compile a 6-0 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He'll match up against Anthony DeSclafani tonight. In sharp contrast, DeSclafani's record vs. L.A. is 1-7, with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. These two pitchers met last week in a game at Chavez Ravine. Buehler led the champs to a 5-3 win, as he gave up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings, while striking out 9. Even better: on the road in Buehler's career, the Dodgers are 14-1 vs. division rivals when he starts. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection in Game 2 of the double-header, is the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. This matchup will feature southpaw Steven Matz against righty Tanner Houck. And we'll take the homestanding Red Sox with Houck on the hill. Houck was originally a 12th round selection by the Blue Jays in 2014 out of High School in Illinois. But the then 18-year-old RHP decided to attend College and Houck re-entered the draft three years later and was selected by the Red Sox in the first round. So far, it looks like a wise choice by Boston as Houck tore through the Minors and then got a chance in the Big Leagues last season and really opened some eyes. In three 2020 starts covering 17 innings, Houck went 3-0 while posting a ridiculous 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's gotten the call again this season and so far he has once again made the most of it. Still looking for his first win of 2021, Houck has a 2.50 ERA in five games (three starts) covering 18 innings but most importantly he has cut his walk rate by more than half (4.8 to 2.0) while maintaining a strikeout rate of better than 11. Boston has done its best work at night this season, with a 43-21 record (plus 22.3 games on the moneyline), while Matz's teams are 4-12 his last 16 starts under the lights. This also will be Matz's fourth start vs. Boston, and his ERA is an elevated 4.76, with a WHIP of 1.64. Meanwhile, his ERA in his eight nighttime starts this season is 5.43, with a 1.51 WHIP. Finally, Houck comes into this game off a solid start vs. the Yankees in which he gave up 0 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and 8 strikeouts. Take the Red Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners +106 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Yusei Kikuchi continues to perform at a very high level for his surprising Mariners team. The victories don't always come for the 30-year-old southpaw, but Kikuchi usually finds a way to put in a quality effort and the All Star has managed to keep his ERA under four runs despite just a 6-5 record. He set a season high for himself in his last start with 12 strikeouts (vs. only one walk) in just six innings. This will be Kikuchi's third start of the season against the Astros as he led his team to victory twice in April against this Houston club (once here at home and once at Minute Maid Park).  Kikuchi has thrived in day games throughout his MLB career and 2021 appears to be no exception. In 12 nighttime starts, he is 3-4 with 5.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in just under 69 innings. However in six daytime outings, Kikuchi is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in just under 41 innings. The M's are also 20-9 in their last 29 games as an underdog. Take Seattle. |
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07-28-21 | Blue Jays -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. This is a rematch of a pitching matchup from last Wednesday. Toronto's Robbie Ray lost that game, 7-4, to Boston's Garrett Richards, but Ray and the Jays should exact revenge tonight. The Red Sox are a dismal 12-25 as a home underdog, and have also greatly struggled here at Fenway Park vs. southpaws, as they're 24-31 (but minus 16.8 games on the moneyline), while Richards' teams are a poor 17-32 (minus 10.9 games on the moneyline) when installed as an underdog. In contrast, Robbie Ray has excelled in his career as a road favorite (22-13, +5 games on the moneyline). Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Cardinals v. Indians +100 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the St. Louis Cardinals. With almost identical records, the Cards and Indians (soon to be the Guardians) battle it out in this inter-league series. The Cards took round one on Tuesday by a 4-2 final and now the second game of this series will be played under the sun in Cleveland in this matinee match-up. RHP Zach Plesac will get his 14th start of the season for the Tribe. Plesac likely isn't all that satisfied with his numbers to date -- 5-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts covering 75 1/3 innings -- but there is plenty of time for the 26-year-old to turn things around. Plesac's career daytime ERA (3.42) is better than his nighttime number. And this season that bias is much more exaggerated. In nine nighttime starts covering 54 innings, Plesac has a 4.83 ERA however in four daytime outings covering 21 1/3 innings, that number is reduced almost two runs to 2.95. And in his only other inter-league start in 2021, Plesac threw eight near-perfect innings (three hits) vs. the Reds on May 7. Take Cleveland. |
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07-27-21 | Astros -146 v. Mariners | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. The two starting pitchers in this game -- Seattle's Chris Flexen and Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. -- have had opposite results vs. their respective opponent in tonight's game. Flexen's record vs. Houston is 0-2, and his ERA is 7.20, while his WHIP is an ugly 2.10. Meanwhile, McCullers is 7-3 vs. Seattle in 14 starts (his teams are 10-4), and his ERA is 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.10. The Astros are a solid 32-14 (+11.2 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-21 | White Sox -143 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. Dylan Cease will get his third start of the season vs. the Royals tonight. The hard-throwing RHP had two previous outings this season vs. KC -- both at home -- so this will be his first start of the season in Kansas City. In three prior starts at Kauffman Stadium, Cease is 2-1 although the ERA is a bit high at 4.76. Overall, Cease's numbers vs. the Royals are very good -- 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA in six starts covering just under 32 innings. Royals RH Brad Keller looked like a breakout candidate after a promising 2020 in which he went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts. But Keller has taken a huge step backwards this season, going 7-9 with a 5.84 ERA in 20 starts while leading the league in both hits allowed (125) and base-on-balls (50). Keller has three prior starts vs. the Sox this season and he is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in those. The Royals pulled off an upset last night but despite that the Sox are still 15-5 in the last 20 meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 here in KC. Take Chicago. |
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07-25-21 | White Sox +126 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 126 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, on ESPN-TV, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Milwaukee Brewers. Two All Star ace right-handers go to the mound tonight in prime time as the Sox and Lance Lynn go to Milwaukee to face the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. At age 34 and in his 10th MLB campaign, Lynn leads all qualified AL starters with a 1.94 ERA in 17 starts covering just under 98 innings. Woodruff's numbers are also outstanding with a 2.04 ERA in 19 starts covering 119 innings and like Lynn, he will likely be a leading candidate for the Cy Young award when all is said and done. So on paper it's a close match-up for sure, but perhaps what sets Lynn apart tonight is his numbers vs. the Brewers -- mostly from his time spent with the Cardinals. In 20 games vs. the Crew (16 starts) covering 102 1/3 innings, Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 111 strikeouts. In 10 games (nine starts) at Miller Park (now American Family Field), Lynn is 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA. Despite its loss here last night, Chicago is 4-2 in the last six games in Milwaukee. Take the Sox as a road underdog on Sunday night. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -163 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Wood will take the mound for Gabe Kapler's men this afternoon, while RHP JT Brubaker will get the call for the Buccos. Wood has given up just 7 earned runs over his last four starts (2.82 ERA), and the Giants won three of those four games. For the season, Wood is 8-3 with a 3.77 ERA. Brubaker has been trending in the wrong direction, as his ERA is 4.68 on the season, but 9.20 over his last three outings. And Pittsburgh has lost each of his last seven starts. Even worse: the Bucs are 9-28 (minus 14.2 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while San Francisco is 18-9 (but +16.7 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses, and 35-15 (+12 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite! Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, on TBS Network, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox were hoping to extend their 2021 dominance over their AL East rivals yesterday and things looked good for them to do so. But then with a 3-0 lead going into the eighth inning, the Boston bullpen suffered a rare meltdown and the Yanks plated four runs and stole a 4-3 victory here at Fenway. The Sox look to regroup this afternoon behind their veteran southpaw starter Martin Perez. Although the 30-year-old Venezuelan's career numbers are not all that pretty to look at, one thing Perez does have going for him today is his winning record in daytime starts. He also was the starter here on June 25 when the Red Sox beat the Yankees, 5-3, although he did not factor in the decision that day. Despite their comeback victory on Saturday, the Yanks are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Sox and 1-6 in the last seven here at Fenway. Boston is also 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox |
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07-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -103 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Toronto Blue Jays. It would be strange for a contending team to trade away a veteran LH starter with a winning record and ERA under four runs. And it would be even stranger if that pitcher had a very good post-season resume on top of his solid regular season numbers. But that's exactly what the Tampa Bay Rays did when they shipped 41-year-old southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets for a couple of non-descript players. The pitching-thin, first-place Mets will likely be saying "thank you very much" for a while as Hill joins them and has a chance to contribute immediately. Admittedly, Hill has a history of injury issues, but he has been completely healthy in 2021, logging 19 starts covering 95 1/3 coming into this afternoon. The icing on the cake -- for today at least -- is that Hill is 27-12 (.692) in 102 day games (63 starts). Despite its victory last night, Toronto is only 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Queens while the Mets are 5-2 in their last seven inter-league home games vs. winning teams. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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07-25-21 | Padres -200 v. Marlins | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins. Another season, another All Star campaign for Yu Darvish. Now with his fourth MLB club, the Japanese ace is 34 years old but he is still capable of throwing some of the nastiest pitches in the game while putting up some of the best numbers. He struggled a bit right at the end of the first half but Darvish has a way of coming on strong after the All Star Break so look for some very good things from him in the coming weeks. Tonight, Darvish gets his second, second-half start and it comes in South Florida. Darvish has traditionally done his best work during the day, where he has a career 3.09 ERA in 60 starts. The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins here in Miami, while Darvish's teams are 5-1 in his six career starts vs. the Fish. Take San Diego. |
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07-24-21 | A's -125 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Chris Bassitt lost his last outing -- 4-2 vs Cleveland -- but had won his 10 prior decision (dating back to April 12). For the season, Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll match up against Seattle's Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert is 0-2, with a 6.13 ERA, in his five nighttime starts this season. Meanwhile, Oakland is 20-4 behind Bassitt when installed as the favorite, including 6-0 this season as a road favorite. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -245 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, Trevor Bauer's administrative leave, and now the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw, the door has been opened again for Tony Gonsolin to show what he can do as a starter. The 27-year-old RH is once more proving himself extremely valuable as a spot starter for his team with a 2.87 ERA in eight games (seven starts). For some reason however, Gonsolin's walk rate has soared this season. But if he can get back to the control he had in 2020 (a 1.4 walk rate), Gonsolin could be an ace in the making. Gonsolin's strikeout numbers are impressive and that could serve him well tonight at home in his eighth start against the free-swinging Rockies. It will be his first start vs. Colorado in 2021 but for his career, Gonsolin has a 2.40 ERA in three games -- two starts -- vs. the the Rox covering 15 innings. Despite their win last night, the Rockies are still just 14-38 in the last 52 meetings and 17-47 in the last 64 in L.A. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -250 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -250 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kevin Gausman's 2021 campaign is the epitome of the term "breakout season." 2020 was okay for him -- 3-3 with 3.62 ERA in 12 games -- but you really don't know how good it could have been due to the shortened season. But there's no question about how good the 30-year-old RH is in 2021. Gausman leads all qualified NL starters with a 1.84 ERA in 19 starts covering just under 118 innings. Not surprisingly he also has a stellar W-L record at 9-3. And Gausman's hit rate of 5.1 per nine IP is also one of the best there is. Start number 20 will come against the 37-60 Pirates. Gausman wants some revenge for a bad beat he suffered to the Bucs. Back on May 14, Gausman threw eight strong innings in Pittsburgh, allowing just one run on five hits with 12 K's and zero BBs. But he got little help from his offense and the Giants lost the game, 3-2. The Giants are 26-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 as a home favorite. Take San Francisco. |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners +105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. In his third season in the Majors, Japanese southpaw starter Yusei Kikuchi finally seems to be breaking out. The 30-year-old finished the first half of the season with a 6-4 record and 3.48 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 98 innings, and it all culminated with his first selection to the AL All Star roster for the M's. His second half has gotten off to a rough start, but now in his second start of the post-break season, Kikuchi gets to face an A's team he's already beaten. On May 24, Kikuchi threw six solid innings in Oakland, allowing just one run on four hits in a 4-2 Mariners victory for his second win of the 2021 season. He'll try to duplicate that tonight in his home park against a team that has really cooled off lately. The A's began the season 45-27 in their first 72 games, but since June 19, they are just 11-15 and they are also 5-10 in their last 15 vs. teams with a winning record. Despite their loss here last night, the M's are still 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -250 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -250 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
>At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The defending champs lost back to back heartbreakers to San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday. The culprit in both was closer Kenley Jansen, who gave up 7 runs in the 9th innings of those two games, and blew a save opportunity in each. Tonight, the Dodgers will face an easier opponent in the Rockies, who are 9-34 on the road this season. And L.A. has dominated Colorado, with 30 wins in the last 39 meetings, and a 15-3 record over their last 18 at home in this series. Lefty David Price has been terrific this season, with a 2.02 ERA in his five starts, including 1.93 at home. He faced the Rockies five days ago in Denver, and held Colorado to just 1 run and 2 hits over four innings. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be on the mound for Colorado, and he was shellacked last week by the Dodgers, as he gave up 7 runs over 4 innings, in a 10-4 L.A. victory. Gonzalez has a 6.58 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Take the Dodgers, and his teams are 0-4 in his four starts vs. the Dodgers since 2019. |
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07-23-21 | Rangers v. Astros -210 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Things haven't exactly worked out in the W/L category for Jake Odorizzi in his first season in Houston. The 31-year-old RHP is just 3-5 in 12 games (11 starts) covering 50 2/3 innings coming into tonight's start against the Rangers. But Odorizzi's other numbers are solid -- a 4.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 8.0. There is reason to believe that Odorizzi will improve his record in the second half. For his career, the veteran who spent his previous seasons with the Royals (2012), Rays (2013-2017), and Twins (2018-2020) has a losing record prior to the All Star break. But after the break, Odorizzi has a winning ledger. These two Lone Star State teams have already played each other nine times this season and so far the home team is a perfect 9-0. Finally, the Rangers offense has decided to go to sleep following the All Star Game, having plated just five runs in their last five games and being out-scored 42-5 since the break. Take the Astros. |
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07-23-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -120 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago White Sox. Despite a stellar first half that included a 7-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts) covering 98 innings, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta did not make the NL All Star roster -- although teammates Burnes and Woodruff did get the call. Perhaps the most impressive of all of Peralta's stats so far this season -- and maybe the biggest reason he should've been an All Star -- is his incredible hit rate of just 4.0 per nine innings (which leads the NL). That snub should give the 25-year-old RHP enough of a chip on his shoulder to ensure he keeps doing the same thing in the second half of the season -- and into what looks more and more like a Brewers post-season. Peralta has done by far his best work at home in 2021 where he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) vs. 3-2 and 2.88 in eight road starts. The Sox hitters have never seen Peralta before and they are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague road games vs. winning teams. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. Tyler Mahle will face southpaw Wade Leblanc tonight, with the Reds looking to bounce back off one of their worst losses of the season. On Wednesday, the Mets shut them out, 7-0. But Cincinnati is a super 22-8 off a loss by 4+ runs, and 18-9 this season after scoring less than 3 runs. Meanwhile, the Cards are a horrible 4-15 when priced between +125 and +175 this season. Take Cincy. |
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07-21-21 | Giants +155 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 155 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles. Logan Webb will match up against Julio Urias tonight for the second time this season. In the first meeting, Webb and the Giants crushed Urias and the Dodgers, 11-6. Urias had his worst start of the season, as he gave up 7 runs, 11 hits, and 2 walks over 5 innings. And that game wasn't altogether surprising, as Urias has not had terrific success vs. the Giants in his career. He's made 11 starts, but Los Angeles is just 5-6 in those games. We'll take San Francisco and Webb as a big underdog tonight, as SF is 11-5 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) this season when priced from +125 to +175, and 24-15 vs. division foes. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller this afternoon. Unfortunately, Keller has a 5.97 ERA on the season, and KC has lost each of his last seven starts. And his career ERA vs. Milwaukee is 6.97, with a WHIP of 1.64. Eric Lauer will get the ball for the Brew Crew, and his ERA over his last three starts is a sparkling 0.98. Moreover, in his daytime starts this season, his ERA is 2.08, with a 1.03 WHIP. Finally, KC is a horrid 37-72 (minus 17.1 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175, and 42-71 (minus 20.2 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon, while the Brewers are 45-19 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 or more, and 70-46 (+17 games on the moneyline) in daytime action. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-21-21 | Mets -131 v. Reds | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds. With Jacob deGrom sidelined for a while -- fortunately an MRI found no structural damage to his forearm -- the rest of the rotation has to step up. That includes veteran RH Marcus Stroman who will go to the mound this afternoon for his 20th start of the season. Stroman's record is not where he would like it to be at 6-8, but the rest of his numbers have been very solid -- a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and career-best 9.1 strikeout rate in 103 1/3 innings. This will be just his second career start at Great American Ball Park but overall he has been solid in his career vs. Cincy (1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts). In addition to deGrom, the Mets are also without star SS Francisco Lindor, but that didn't seem to matter on Monday when they exploded for 15 runs in a wild 11-inning victory. Despite the loss on Tuesday, the Mets are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings here in Cincinnati and 5-1 in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records. Take New York. |
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07-20-21 | Padres -155 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Atlanta Braves. The Padres offense has exploded after the All Star Break with 41 runs over three games against the Nationals. They beat Erick Fedde, 24-8; Patrick Corbin, 10-4; but lost to Max Scherzer, 8-7, after blowing a 6-4 lead in the 8th inning. The Padres typically bounce back off of blown saves, as they're 10-3 this season (and 28-16 the last three seasons), so that bodes well for Jayce Tingler's men. Tonight, Yu Darvish will come off the injured list to make his 19th start of the season. And the Padres are a super 14-4 (+6.9 games on the moneyline) in his previous outings. Darvish went on the injured list because of hip and back ailments, but looked great in his bullpen session over the weekend. Darvish will match up against Braves hurler Touki Toussaint. The Braves are an awful 34-37 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. righties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays -186 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The O's will welcome John Means -- their only true ace at the moment -- back to the rotation tonight. The 28-year-old southpaw has been out for over a month with a shoulder strain but has been cleared to start this game tonight. But it's a very tough assignment and Means didn't look sharp in his recent AAA rehab start so he likely will need some work before he's back to his ace-like form. The other problem of course is that, even if Means pitches well, he will be on a short leash. And if he leaves the game with a lead, it's far from safe. The Orioles have arguably the worst bullpen in the AL as their 4.94 relief ERA is second-to-last (only the Tigers have a higher number at 5.29). LH Shane McClanahan is one of several bright young pitching prospects for the Rays and he will get his 14th start of the season tonight and it will be his first career action against Baltimore. The O's are 0-4 in Means' last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -131 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the defending champs tonight, and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his six starts this season. For the year, Gonsolin's ERA is 2.01 in his starts, with a 1.25 WHIP. He'll match up against the Giants' Kevin Gausman, who will be making his seventh career start vs. Los Angeles. Unfortunately, Gausman's teams are 2-4 in the prior six, while his ERA in those games is an elevated 3.73. In Gausman's career, his teams have struggled on the road with him on the hill (34-59, including 12-31 (minus 16.3 games) as a road underdog priced at +150 or less). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 5-0 in Gonsolin's career starts, when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175, and they're 113-47 (+20.8 games on the moneyline) in their last 160 home games. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-21 | Angels v. A's -108 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Los Angeles Angels. What is left for Shohei Ohtani to do this season? The Angels' superstar has already broken the record for Major League record for home runs by a Japanese born player -- and Ohtani did it in just 81 games when Hideki Matsui needed 162 games to set the previous record (31). Then Ohtani became the first player ever to hit and pitch in the same All Star game and he's a leading candidate for the AL MVP award. But don't be surprised if Ohtani's second half numbers on the pitching side decline. In his career, Ohtani's first-half ERA is 3.37, while his second-half ERA is an ugly 9.90. This will be his 4th start at Oakland. In his first three starts, he gave up 11 runs over 12 innings (8.25 ERA). On the road this season, Ohtani's ERA is a nasty 6.46 (compared to 1.86 at home). Cole Irvin will be Ohtani's mound opponent tonight, and the A's have won six of Irvin's last seven starts. Take Oakland. |
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07-19-21 | Indians v. Astros -203 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians. The Astros are likely happy to be home after their series in Chicago against the White Sox. After winning the first game on Friday, the 'Stros proceeded to lose the next two, getting crushed in the process by a combined score of 14-1. Not to worry, Zack Greinke is available tonight in this series opener against the Indians. Greinke just keeps getting it done year after year. He didn't make the All Star team last week -- you could certainly argue that he should have -- but the RH is still putting up some pretty impressive numbers at the ripe-old age of 37. In a league-leading 19 starts, Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in just over 115 innings. And perhaps most importantly, Greinke is a strong second-half performer. In 220 career games (201 starts) after the All Star break, Greinke is 93-54 (.633) with a 3.34 ERA. Houston is 52-17 in its last 69 games as a home favorite of -200 or more, while Cleveland is 0-5 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Houston. Take the Astros. |
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07-18-21 | Giants -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Johnny Cueto may not put up the numbers he did 10 years ago, but like the Energizer Bunny, the 35-year-old RHP just keeps going and going. Cueto hasn't had 30 starts since 2016, but with 14 at the break, he has a chance to get close this season. More important is the fact that Cueto's 4.15 ERA is by far his best number since 2018. He'll get his 15th start of the season this afternoon, and it comes against a team with which he's very familiar from his days in Cincinnati. The main reason to like Cueto and the Giants today is because of what he's done in his career when pitching in the afternoon. In 119 day starts, Cueto is 51-31 with a 2.83 ERA however in 203 nightime starts those numbers dip to 83-64 with a 3.81 ERA. That's almost a full run higher than what he's been putting up during the day. Take San Fran. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Seattle Mariners. When you have someone like Shohei Otahni on your team basically making baseball history every time he goes out on the field, other players can get lost in the shuffle. Such is the case with the 2021 Angels and their pitching staff. Veteran RH Alex Cobb and his $15 Million contract were traded to the Angels by the Orioles in February and it's easy to forget that he's having his best season since his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. The 33-year-old is 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 13 starts covering 66 innings. This will be Cobb's third start this season against division rival Seattle and his seventh start at home and that in particular is important. In his six starts here at Angel Stadium this season, Cobb is 4-1 with a sparkling 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP however in seven road starts he is 2-2 with a dismal 6.37 ERA. The M's will start All Star LH Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a southpaw starter. Take the Halos. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-17-21 | Mets -165 v. Pirates | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tylor Megill has yet to win his first MLB game but that hasn't stopped the hype machine regarding the 25-year-old RHP. Megill has a 3.50 ERA in four starts with the Mets and he boasts a 13.0 strikeout rate and that's no easy task for a rookie with only 18 Major League innings under his belt. He's being discussed as a possible breakout candidate in the second half and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a young Mets' rookie made a name for himself in the dog days of summer. Start number five comes against the Pirates in Pittsburgh and wouldn't it be ironic if the winless rookie was the one who got the Mets out of their current rut of having lost three of their last four to one of the worst teams in the Majors. After all, it was Megill who started the last Mets victory over the Pirates, a 4-2 win on July 10 at CitiField. The Mets have won all four of Megill's starts and despite their win last night, the Bucs are 10-20 in their last 30 as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-16-21 | Mets -155 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What does Marcus Stroman want for the second half of the season? Well, the first thing the Mets' veteran RH wants is some revenge. Stroman ended the first half with a loss to the lowly Pirates of all teams, dropping his record for the season to 6-7. Stroman's other numbers are strong as he boasts a 2.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts covering 98 1/3 innings. Stroman's first start of the second half will give him a chance to make amends for his loss at the hands of the 34-56 Bucs last Saturday. Stroman should be able bounce back tonight against a Pittsburgh team that's just 19-25 at home so far. In addition to Stroman's loss on Saturday, the Mets also lost to the Pirates in the first half finale on Sunday, 6-2. But they are 16-9 in their last 25 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent when they were a home favorite of at least -150 (they were -185 last Sunday). Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati. The Reds have taken the last two games of this 4-game series, but we will take Milwaukee to win this final game before the All Star Break. The Brewers will hand the ball to All Star Brandon Woodruff, who is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.78 ERA. He'll match-up against Luis Castillo, who is 3-10, with a 4.81 ERA. Castillo's worst role is as an underdog, as the Reds are 1-10 his last 11 when installed as a dog. In sharp contrast, the Brewers are 21-4 as a home favorite with Woodruff. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Framber Valdez is having a super season, as he is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. And, dating back to last season, the Astros are 11-3 in his last 14 outings. Houston's been installed as a favorite this afternoon vs. Jameson Taillon and the Yankees. And that bodes well, as New York is a wallet-busting 8-28 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and they are also 12-22 in day games. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Blue Jays -117 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will hand the ball to veteran lefty Rich Hill this afternoon. Hill hasn't had much success vs. the Blue Jays in his career as his ERA is north of six runs (6.06), while his WHIP is 1.47. The Jays will start fellow southpaw Robbie Ray, who has a 3.30 career ERA vs. the Rays. Toronto is 20-11 in day games this season. Even better: Robbie Ray's teams are 21-13 as a road favorite when he's been on the mound, while the Rays are 4-7 their last 11 as a home dog. Take Toronto. |
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07-10-21 | Angels -113 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Seattle Mariners. This will be Patrick Sandoval's second start against Seattle this season. He struck out 10 Mariners in six innings in his first start. And it was a quality start, as he only gave up 3 runs over those six innings. But Seattle won, 9-5. Since that game, Sandoval has made four starts, and the Angels are a perfect 4-0 in those games. I look for Anaheim to win for the fifth straight time behind Sandoval tonight, as he has a 2.81 road ERA, while the Mariners' Chris Flexen's ERA vs. the Angels in his career is 6.75. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to southpaw Caleb Smith tonight at Chavez Ravine. Unfortunately, Arizona has dropped his last six outings. Even worse for Smith is that it will be Walker Buehler on the mound for Los Angeles tonight. And Buehler's 8-1 this season (and 13-1 his last 14 decisions). Buehler has made 10 starts in his career vs. Arizona. The Dodgers won eight of those 10 games, and Buehler's ERA vs. Arizona is 2.47, with a WHIP of 0.87, over 58 1-3 innings. The Diamondbacks are a wallet-breaking 18-82 (minus 42.2 games on moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Dodgers are 208-62 (+56.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -200 (or more). Lay the big price with Walker Buehler. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. If you thought that the following first half numbers -- a 7-3 record, 2.23 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP -- would make a starting pitcher a shoe-in for the All Star game, think again. Those are Freddy Peralta's numbers and the 25-year-old RHP didn't get the nod. Perhaps it's because the NL in particular is stacked this season with quality pitchers. Or perhaps (more likely) it's because three other Brewers made the cut for next Tuesday, and two of them (Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff) are starters. But whatever the reason, you can expect Peralta to come out tonight with a pretty big chip on his shoulder as he faces the Reds in his 17th start of the season. It will be Peralta's fourth start of the season vs. Cincy and the Crew is 2-1 in his previous three in which he's posted a 2.87 ERA in just under 16 innings. The Brewers are also 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 7-2 in their last nine vs. teams from the NL Central. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-10-21 | A's -137 v. Rangers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. James Kaprielian is a 27-year-old rookie RHP who almost nobody had heard of going into this season. But the former 1st round draft pick of the Yankees (2015) is quickly making a name for himself with the A's this season. Kaprielian is 4-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 starts covering 57 innings so far coming into tonight's start vs. Texas. Despite his limited MLB experience, Kaprielian already has two starts this season against the Rangers and he threw quality outings in both of those. In 12 innings vs. Texas, Kaprielian has allowed five runs with 12 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite their loss on Friday, the A's are still 44-22 in the last 66 meetings with the Rangers and they are also 10-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 12 road games as a favorite of at least -125. Take Oakland. |
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07-10-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. Ross Stripling is starting to come on. After his first six starts, he was 0-3, with a 7.20 ERA. But since then, he's made eight starts, and has given up just 12 earned runs and 42 baserunners over 46 innings (2.34 ERA; 0.91 WHIP). I look for Stripling to maintain his excellent form this afternoon, as his teams are 16-4 in his career in games after a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs. Even better: Stripling loves afternoon games, as his teams are 18-7 in his daytime starts (including 6-1 this year), compared to 23-26 at night. In contrast, Stripling's mound opponent, Ryan Yarbrough has had much more success under the lights (16-10), than in the daytime (8-9). Take Toronto this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-21 | Reds -102 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. Of all the surprise pitching performances in the first half of the season, none is more surprising than that of Wade Miley. After wearing six different uniforms in six seasons between 2014 - 2019, Miley signed with the Reds for two years at the beginning of last season. The veteran LH proceeded to lay an egg in the short 2020 campaign, going 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in six games (four starts). So Miley was nothing more than an afterthought heading into 2021 and for good reason. But all he's done so far is put up arguably the best first half of his career -- 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts. On top of that, Miley threw his first no-hitter (May 7 at Cleveland) and was a walk and error away from a perfect game. Miley spent an injury-riddled campaign in Milwaukee in 2018 and put up some of his best numbers at Miller Park (5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 16 starts). In seven home starts that season, he was 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA so he clearly loves pitching here. He'll match up against Eric Lauer tonight. Unfortunately for Lauer, his teams are an awful 7-18 with him on the mound in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -120 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Philadelphia Phillies. No doubt, word of Chris Sale's likely second-half return to the Boston rotation has made its way around the Red Sox clubhouse. The veteran southpaw, who needed Tommy John surgery last year, is throwing and looks good. And if nothing else, this could light a fire under some of the current Boston starters who are underperforming. One such candidate is veteran RH Garrett Richards. Richards is 33-years-old and on a one-year contract and would certainly like to stick around but he's going to have to do better than his first half numbers. He gets a favorable match-up tonight against the Phillies and RH Vince Velasquez. Richards' only other start against the Phils was a gem -- seven scoreless innings -- but of course it was also seven years ago when he was a member of the Angels. Although Richards is just 4-5 this season -- his first with Boston -- the Sox are 9-8 in his starts. More importantly, Boston is 8-0 in its last eight home games. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres -134 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. This is a great pitching matchup with the Nationals' Max Scherzer (who was snubbed by the All Star selection committee) going up against San Diego's Yu Darvish (who was selected to play in the All Star Game). We'll take Darvish and the Padres tonight, as the Padres are 9-1 in Darvish's 10 home starts this season when installed as a favorite, and 15-5 in his last 20 overall, here, at Petco. Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-busting 10-18 as an underdog of +150 (or less). The Nationals have only faced Darvish once before, and they were shut out, 2-0, as he threw eight scoreless innings, and struck out 12. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -127 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Zach Plesac hasn't pitched in an MLB game in over a month. The promising 26-year-old RH was placed on the IL at the end of May for a fractured thumb and Cleveland sure will be happy to see him back in the rotation. Plesac is a budding star and the sky seemed to be the limit going into this season after a dominating short season in 2020 in which he posted a 2.28 ERA and had an incredible 57 strikeouts against only six walks. Plesac was looking good this season before the injury and he has plenty of time to get back on track. A start against the Royals could be just what the doctor ordered for his first live action back on the big stage. Plesac is 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six career starts covering 34 1/3 innings vs. KC. Match-ups don't get much more one-sided than that. The Royals are 0-5 in the last five meetings with the Tribe and 17-35 in the last 52 meetings here in Cleveland. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +128 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 128 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees. Logan Gilbert was the 14th overall pick by the Mariners in the 2018 amateur draft and he's taken somewhat of a fast track to the Majors. The 24-year-old RH rocketed through the Minor Leagues -- his highest ERA at any level was 2.88 -- and got the call earlier this season to join the Big League club. So far, so good as Gilbert is holding his own with a 2-2 record, 4.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4.5 K:BB ratio in nine starts covering just under 42 innings. But the most important stat so far for the youngster -- and the reason why he should stay in the Majors for now -- is the fact that when Gilbert pitches, Seattle wins. The M's are 7-2 in Gilbert's starts and are on a seven-game winning streak when he's out there. This will be his first career start against the Yanks and likewise it will be southpaw Jordan Montgomery's first-ever outing vs. the M's. Montgomery has a 5.53 ERA in eight road starts this season (vs. 2.96 in eight starts in the Bronx). Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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