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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-20-21 | Astros +113 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 113 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. In Game 4 last night here in Boston, the Astros needed their bullpen and hitters to step up in a big way and they did. With the game tied at 2-2 going into the ninth inning, Boston Manager Alex Cora decided to try to apply the knockout punch by putting his #1 starter Nathan Eovaldi into the game in relief. How did it work? Let's just say that Cora is probably wishing he could take that move back. All of a sudden, the advantage in this series has swung back to the Astros, who will send Game 1 starting pitcher Framber Valdez to the mound this afternoon. In that Game 1, Valdez lasted just 2 2/3 innings but he was followed by seven relievers who allowed a total of one run on four hits in what would turn out to be a 5-4 Houston victory. In his career, Valdez has made three starts for Houston vs. Boston, and the Astros have won all three. Valdez' ERA is 2.12, while is career WHIP is 1.23 vs. Boston. The Astros are now 7-2 in their last nine games vs. teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, in his career Chris Sale's teams have gone 56-66 (minus 33 net games on the moneyline) vs. winning opponents. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-19-21 | Astros +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-2 | Win | 115 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. The Astros have gotten steamrolled the past two games, 9-5 and 12-3 by Boston. So, in this critical Game 4, they'll turn to the veteran RH, Zack Greinke, with the hope that he can summon his past post-season experience to get them through this rough pitching patch. It's true that Greinke's best days are behind him. But his road ERA this season was 3.45, which compares favorably to Nick Pivetta's 5.40 ERA here at Fenway Park. Moreover, Pivetta has never started a playoff game in his career, while Greinke has 19 starts in the post-season to his credit. And the Red Sox have lost six of Pivetta's last seven starts, with their only win coming against the cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles. And Pivetta gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 3 2/3 innings in that ball game (in which Boston was a -280 favorite). Indeed, the Red Sox have lost Pivetta's LAST 8 starts in which Boston wasn't favored by -250 (or more). Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -172 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won the first two games of this series at home, something that's been more difficult to do in this year's post-season than in most past ones. This afternoon the series swings back to Los Angeles for what would appear to be a must-win situation for the Dodgers -- at least based on the way the Braves are playing right now. The good news is that in the third game of this series the Dodgers get to bring out RHP Walker Buehler, who is 3-0 in his six career starts vs. the Braves with a 3.06 ERA. Buehler finished the regular season with a 16-4 record and 2.47 ERA in a league-best 33 starts. RH Charlie Morton goes to the hill for the road team, which is an awful 0-6 this season as a road underdog of +150 or more. Morton did go 14-6 this season, with a 3.34 ERA. But the Braves lost all three of his starts when they were a road underdog. The mid-afternoon start time also bodes well for Los Angeles. In six daytime starts this season, Buehler went 5-1 (.833) with a 2.45 ERA. Morton, on the other hand, did not fare quite so well, going 1-2 with 4.17 ERA in seven afternoon starts (vs. 13-4 and 3.14 in 26 starts under the lights). And in his career, his teams are a wallet-breaking 38-51 (minus 21.4 net games on the moneyline) in the daytime. With the Dodgers a reliable 92-47 (+17 net games) off a loss (including 22-7 with Buehler), and 30-16 (+5.1 net games) off back-to-back losses, we'll take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-21 | Astros +108 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. Like they did in the Division Series against the Rays, the Red Sox came back with a vengeance on the road in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to Houston. Boston scored all nine of its runs on homers, including becoming the first team in history to hit two grand slams in the same post-season game. But despite the fact that they are coming home on quite a high, the Sox have a challenge ahead of them. They've used Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck in the first two games and so now the choice for starter in Game 3 is a subpar Eduardo Rodriguez. The Astros on the other hand will go with RHP Jose Uquidy who had a very effective regular season, despite being cut short by a nagging shoulder injury. In 20 starts covering 107 innings, the 26-year-old went 8-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with a 4.74 K:BB ratio. Urquidy has a 2.81 ERA in eight post-season appearances (four starts). Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. After a couple days of rest since recording the first save of his career in an incredible Game 5 against the Giants, Max Scherzer will be back to his familiar role tonight in Game 2 of the NLCS. Scherzer was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season, going 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 13 starts covering 81 1/3 innings since the break. Scherzer shouldn't feel any effects tonight from that successful relief appearance on Thursday, as he only faced four batters and threw 13 pitches in closing out San Francisco. The Braves will go with RHP Ian Anderson. The 23-year-old second-year rookie went 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 24 regular season starts covering 128 1/3 innings. But in his only start vs. L.A. this season, Anderson allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings and took the loss in a 9-5 Dodgers victory on June 4.  In his last nine post-season appearances, Scherzer's teams (the Nats and Dodgers) are 8-1. And the Dodgers are 16-2 their last 18 off a defeat in their previous game. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-16-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The 2021 NLCS will feature the same two teams who met in this series a year ago. Game 1 is being played in Atlanta despite the fact that the Dodgers finished the season 18 games better than the Braves in the won-lost column. Game 1 will also feature one of the hottest starters in all of the Majors in the second half of the season in LH Max Fried. Since the break, Fried went 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 14 second half starts covering 83 innings. Los Angeles will counter with a bullpen game, and will start things off with Corey Knebel. The Dodgers used this strategy on Thursday in their Game 5 win vs. the San Francisco Giants, and Knebel pitched a scoreless inning. He's made five starts this season, and has allowed just one earned run in those games. Los Angeles has won four of those five starts. Meanwhile, Fried hasn't had much success vs. the Dodgers, as he's 1-3 in seven starts, with a middling 3.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. And the Braves are a wallet-busting 32-37 (but minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) at home off 3+ wins. Finally, LA is 33-15 (+7.5 net games) vs. lefties. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  |
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10-16-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -126 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. What a season this could turn out to be for a player who was an unheralded 23-year-old when he made his debut last September. Luis Garcia came into this past Spring pretty much unheard of. But now the Astros' second-year rookie starter stands to be one of the finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year award. And the 24-year-old RH would almost certainly trade that for a trip to the World Series in his first full season in the Majors. Garcia finished the season with an 11-8 record, 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 games (28 starts) covering 155 1/3 innings. It won't be easy this afternoon against the Red Sox and their #1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi, but all season Garcia has defied the odds. This start lines up well for Garcia who was 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA in 15 home games (13 starts) vs. 5-3 and 4.24 in 15 road starts. Among Garcia's victims was Boston back on June 1 when he spun seven strong innings allowing one run on five hits in a 5-1 Astros victory. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. This is the fifth straight season that the Astros have made it to the ALCS. That's impressive on any level but is even more so when you consider the penalties that were put on this club after it won it all in 2017. They haven't returned to the World Series since then but they stand an excellent chance now having to play a Red Sox club that was lucky to get in at the last minute as a Wild Card. Houston will send one of their many consistent starters from this season to the mound in LHP Framber Valdez. Valdez finished the season with an 11-6 record and 3.14 ERA in 22 starts covering 134 2/3 innings. He didn't get his first start until the end of May due a fractured finger but once he got the ball, Valdez was arguably the 'Stros' most consistent starter. Houston dominated the season series, taking five of the seven meetings between these two. The Astros are 57-19 in their last 76 with at least one off day. And they are 6-1 in Valdez's last seven starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Meanwhile, in his career Chris Sale's teams have gone 56-65 (minus 32 net games on the moneyline) vs. winning opposition. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-14-21 | Dodgers -105 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Unlike Corbin Burnes who told the Brewers he was physically unable to pitch on three days rest when his team needed a win on Tuesday, Dodgers ace Walker Buehler said, "hand me the ball." The results for those two teams were as you might expect, with the Brewers going home and the Dodgers going back to San Francisco for Game 5 tonight. And with the day off, L.A. gets the services of the Major League wins leader, LHP Julio Urias, on regular (four days) rest. Urias pitched Game 2 here in San Francisco and not only was the 25-year-old his usual dominant self, but the Dodgers' offense responded in a big way, scoring nine runs on the way to an easy 9-2 victory. Lest you think Urias' inexperience might get to him tonight in this all-or-nothing situation, consider that he has already appeared in 19 MLB post-season games covering 42 2/3 innings, including four starts. His 2.68 playoff ERA is lower than his regular season number (3.09). I won't step in front of this battle-tested southpaw, as Urias has won 12 consecutive decisions, and the Dodgers are 16-2 his last 18 starts, including 12-0 his last 12. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. This is an action play; please do not list pitchers. The Dodgers were the pre-season favorites to repeat as World Series Champions, while the Giants were 80-1 to win the World Series, but the tables have turned, and the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination. However, the Dodgers were also on the brink when they played a one-game Wild Card elimination against the Cardinals at home last Wednesday. We played on Los Angeles in that one, and they came through that night. Instead of Max Scherzer, it will be an "all hands on deck" game, which will include Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin, among others taking the mound for the defending champs. Buehler is 7-2 lifetime vs. the Giants, and has given up just 4 earned runs in his four home starts vs. SF, covering 25 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Gonsolin may not have Buehler's pedigree, but he has been sneaky good this season, posting a 4-1 record and 3.23 ERA in 15 games. The 27-year-old will likely follow Buehler, and only will have to throw a few innings tonight, as the Dodgers will have plenty of other options to fill the nine innings. Gonsolin was 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA here at home this season (vs. 5-3 and 3.34 on the road). And Los Angeles has won 16 of its last 17 home games. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -115 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros. Having been soundly beaten in the first two games of this ALDS -- a combined score of 15-5 -- this pretty much becomes a must-win situation for the Chicago White Sox in Game three. The good news is they're at home and they have their young gun RHP Dylan Cease going in his second career post-season appearance (first start). The important thing to note is that the Sox were able to line up Cease's first playoff start here at home. It's well known by now that during the regular season, the 25-year-old has had one of the strongest home-field biases in the game. In 16 starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 7-5 and 4.69 with a 1.33 WHIP in 16 road starts. The other good thing about coming home is that the Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Astros here in Chicago, and 22-10 their last 32 at home with double-revenge. Despite all of their success lately, the Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games vs. teams with a winning record, and a poor 20-33 (minus 14.3 net games) on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The two teams that long ago used to be one and the same face off in this first round series. For a while, it looked like Corbin Burnes would be a shoe-in for NL Cy Young, especially when Jacob deGrom went down with an injury. He was pretty much untouchable through the first month of the season and went on to an All-Star first half. He looked a lot more mortal in many of his second half starts and yet the 26-year-old RHP still finished with a league-best 2.43 ERA in 28 starts. The only stat that might keep him from winning that Cy Young hardware is his 11 victories, but nobody will care about that too much this afternoon if Burnes can channel the version of himself that threw goose-eggs in eight of his starts this season. Burnes has made six playoff appearances and has a 2.00 ERA in those, but this will be his first post-season start. His lone start vs. Atlanta this season wasn't one of his best but the Brewers won the game easily, 9-5. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -146 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. In a Wild Card race that seemed to go on forever, the Red Sox finally emerged victorious, beating the Yankees at home on Tuesday night, 6-2. The prize is a Fall meeting with the AL-best Rays. In truth -- on paper at least -- it probably didn't matter which of those two clubs came out of the one-game playoff as the Rays have been pretty dominant against both New York and Boston recently. In 19 games against the Sox, Tampa went 11-8 and they had an identical record against the Bronx Bombers as well. Tampa, of course, has a rested rotation and will begin with the man who has emerged as their #1 starter, LHP Shane McClanahan. The 24-year-old rookie finished the regular season 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 25 starts. The Sox had to use their #1, Nathan Eovaldi, on Tuesday in the Wild Card game so they will turn to veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 divisional Playoff road games, while the Rays are 52-29 (+10 net games on the moneyline) at home. And Rodriguez's ERA in his 13 career starts vs. Tampa is an ugly 5.21. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -217 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals. There seems to be little doubt that the 2021 Dodgers are the best Wild Card team in sports history. The Dodgers were the early season favorites to win the World Series and were it not for one of the most unexpected seasons ever from the Giants (who were 50-1 preseason longshots just to win the NL West), they would have home field advantage all the way through. The Cardinals and their 40-year-old RHP Adam Wainwright might be the sentimental favorites for a lot of people tonight, but they are really up against it. The reason that L.A. traded some of its better prospects to the Nats for RHP Max Scherzer and IF Trea Turner is because Scherzer is made for exactly this type of situation. The three-time Cy Young winner will get the ball tonight opposite Wainwright, and Scherzer is 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA in 22 post-season games (18 starts) covering 112 innings. And if you have any doubt about the Dodgers being the perfect fit for him, since he arrived in Los Angeles, Scherzer is 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 11 starts covering just over 68 innings. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -217 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. With the Giants' loss in extra innings last night coupled with the Dodgers' win over the Brewers, the Giants have a one-game lead and need this victory today to avoid a one-game playoff with L.A. The good news is that they are sending out the pitcher who has been arguably their best starter over the past couple of months. 24-year-old RHP Logan Webb has come out of nowhere to not only be one of the most effective starters on this team, but also in the entire league. In 26 games -- including 25 starts -- Webb is 10-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. More importantly, the Giants are an incredible 9-1 in Webb's last 10 starts going back to early August. The only team loss in those 10 starts? That was two starts ago against this Padres team, making this afternoon's final start a revenge situation as well. Not only that, but in his last 11 home starts, the Giants are 11-0. San Fran is 39-18 (+21 games on the moneyline) in its last 57 day games. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Last Sunday, Jake Odorizzi came off the IL to start against this Oakland A's team. The 31-year-old RHP had been unhappy with his role with the pitching-rich Astros lately and didn't have a problem making it known. He had a solid start last time but nothing close to what Odorizzi used to do when he was in his prime and the 'Stros dropped a 4-3 decision. That one was in Oakland and tonight Odorizzi will try to exact some revenge at home in what he hopes will be a longer start than the four-inning outing he had last Sunday. This season, Odorizzi has done his best work here at home, posting a 3.61 ERA in 10 games -- nine starts -- covering 42 1/3 innings. On the road, his ERA is almost a run higher at 4.53 in 13 starts covering just under 58 innings. The A's don't have anything to play for, now that they've been eliminated from the AL Wild Card race. Meanwhile, Houston is 72-22 (+ 31 net games on the moneyline) at home vs. division foes. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-01-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -250 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers. Lance Lynn is having a terrific season (10-6, 2.72 ERA), but stumbled badly in his last start, six days ago, when he gave up six earned runs. The good news is that when he's given up more than three earned runs, he's bounced back strong in his next start, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 23 2/3 innings the previous five instances. He will be working with an extra day of rest tonight, and that also bodes well, as his teams are 39-15 (+19.5 net games on the moneyline when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest). Lynn has faced Detroit three times over the last three seasons, and has a 3-0 record (19 innings, 3 runs, 25 strikeouts). Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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09-30-21 | Rays v. Astros -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Astros RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. desperately wanted to show that he could have an injury-free season and start 30 games in the Majors. He won't quite get there, but he has to be pretty happy with what he's accomplished in 2021. The 27-year-old will get his career-best 28th start tonight, and he comes in with an excellent 12-5 record and 3.17 ERA. If McCullers could just cut down on his walks, he could make the transition from very good to great pitcher and possibly one of the AL's elite starters. And it wouldn't hurt his confidence if he picked up the "W" in his final start of the season against the team with the best record in the league -- and a team that the Astros could see in October. McCullers has always done his best work here at home. In 59 starts at Minute Maid Park, McCullers is 25-10 (.714) with a 2.76 ERA vs. just 19-20 and 4.48 in 62 games (59 starts) on the road. Tampa is 2-6 in the last eight meetings in Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-21 | Rays +120 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros. This series during the last week of the regular season is a possible preview of a post-season match-up in the AL. The Stros drew first blood last night when the Rays' normally solid bullpen walked in the tying and winning runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. With the dramatic victory, the Astros are now on the verge of clinching the AL West division title. The Rays will try to even the series tonight and will send young RHP Drew Rasmussen to the mound in an attempt to do so. Few noticed when the Rays sent IF Willy Adames to the Brewers for the 26-year-old hurler in May, but the trade helped both teams clinch their divisions. In 19 games since joining the Rays (nine starts), Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll try to build on that success tonight in his first career starts vs. Houston. The Rays are 6-2 in Rasmussen's last eight starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road starts going back to July 24. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-21 | Brewers +105 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Thanks in large part to one of the hottest streaks we've seen from any Major League club in recent years, the Cardinals are on the verge of securing a Wild Card spot. Their reward -- if you can call it that -- will be a one game playoff against either the Dodgers or Giants. The Cards will go into that game with almost no pressure, knowing that just a couple of months ago few people gave them any chance to be in this position. But tonight it's the 2nd game of a 3-game set against their main rivals, the Brewers. Milwaukee's RHP Adrian Houser will try to do what no one else has been able to in the Cards' last 17 games. Houser's solid season (9-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 27 games including 25 starts) has been overshadowed by the performances of the other starters in the rotation. No doubt he and the Brewers would love to see him get to double-digit wins for the first time in his career. The Crew is 3-1 in Houser's last four starts vs. the Cards. Take Milwaukee. |
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09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +101 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed to score just two runs against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and fell, 7-2. Tonight, the Jays will look to bounce back, and stay in the race for the final playoff berth (the Jays currently sit one game behind Boston, and three behind New York). Toronto is 25-12 (+11 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than three runs. Take the Blue Jays. |
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09-28-21 | A's -116 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners. You can't make up the season that Chris Bassitt has had. The 32-year-old was voted to his first All Star game on the strength of a first half in which he went 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 19 starts covering 118 innings. And the second half started solidly as well for Bassitt in starts against the Rangers, Indians, Rangers, and tonight's opponents, the Mariners. But then in his start on August 17 against the White Sox, Bassitt was struck in the head by a line drive in one of the scariest moments of the season. Miraculously, Bassitt made his comeback start only five weeks after that terrible incident and it was against this Seattle team. In three near-perfect innings, Bassitt allowed just one run and struck out four M's batters while looking every bit the All Star he was earlier in the season. In 15 road starts this season, Bassitt is 8-1 even though he has a higher ERA than at home. Take the Athletics. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-21 | Brewers -114 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals. Brandon Woodruff was a tough-luck loser last week vs. the Cardinals (as a -200 favorite). Woodruff struck out 10 batters, and allowed just two hits and one run over six innings, but Milwaukee lost 2-1. We'll take Woodruff to make amends this evening, as the Brewers are 19-12 in his starts after he gave up 1 run or less in his previous outing. And they're 19-11 in his starts when priced from +125 to -125. Milwaukee comes into this game off an 8-4 win over the Mets, and is riding a 3-game win streak. That bodes well for them in this game, as the Brewers are 55-25 off a win by more than 3 runs, and 61-31 this year off a win. St. Louis' current 16-game win streak is keeping a lid on this price. In Woodruff's three starts vs. St. Louis this season, Milwaukee was favored -200, -185, and -175. We'll take the Brewers with their ace, Woodruff, in this near-PK'em game. |
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09-28-21 | Phillies +107 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta. The Phillies are in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they sit 2.5 games behind division-leading Atlanta heading into this 3-game series. The good news for the Phils is that ace Zack Wheeler will be on the mound tonight. The Cy Young candidate leads the league in innings (206 1/3) and strikeouts (240), and has allowed just 3 runs over his last 4 starts (1.15 ERA). In his last two starts vs. the Braves this season, Wheeler gave up just 1 run over 15 innings, and struck out 20. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has given up 12 runs (6 earned) in 17 2/3 innings vs. the Phillies. And his career ERA vs. them is 5.53. Atlanta is a wallet-busting 37-37 (minus 16.4 net games on the moneyline) at home this season, while Philly is 32-31 (+10 net games) as an underdog, and 49-34 (+15.8 net games) off a loss by more than 3 runs. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox bullpen had another meltdown last night, allowing the Yankees to come back and score four runs in the 8th inning to pull off the victory here in Boston. The Sox can ill afford to do that if they are to secure a Wild Card spot in the coming week. The Yanks will now go for the three-game road sweep tonight in the series finale -- and the final 2021 regular season game between these two rivals. It hasn't been the kind of season that LHP Eduardo Rodriguez hoped for. The veteran Boston southpaw has 11 wins which isn't too shabby, but he also has a 4.97 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 29 starts covering 146 2/3 innings. But E-Rod will feel a whole lot better about his season if he can help his team win tonight. The good news is that Rodriguez has been a Yankee-killer this season. In four 2021 starts vs. pinstripes covering 18 innings, E-Rod is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and even better is the fact that the Red Sox are 4-0 in those starts. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -112 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our AL East Division Game of the Week is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. NIck Pivetta has found out this season what life can be like as a Red Sox starter. His 9-7 ledger represents his most successful record since he came into the league four years ago but he also has an ERA approaching five runs (4.63). The former Phillies RHP will get his 29th start of the season this afternoon and it will be his second of the season vs. the Yanks -- his first at home. Pivetta has a 3-2 record with a 4.24 ERA in nine daytime starts this season (which outshines his record under the lights). The Yanks will go with LHP Nestor Cortes, Jr. The 26-year-old Cuban has been impressive and the Yankees have won three of his four starts this month. But those three were against the Rangers and Orioles (twice), so this afternoon will be a much tougher test in his first 2021 start vs. Boston. Despite their victory here last night, the Yankees are just 2-7 in the last nine games at Fenway. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-24-21 | Nationals v. Reds -176 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals. With just three wins in their last 10 games, the Reds are seeing their Playoff chances slip away. With less than 10 games left, they have to make the most of a series like this one -- four games against a Nats team that traded away most of its major pieces at the end of July. But DC drew first blood on Thursday, making this almost a must-win situation for the home team tonight. Despite their victory here last yesterday, the Nats are just 10-35 in their last 45 road games and 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Sonny Gray gets his 25th start of the season for the Reds tonight, and although things haven't gone the way he would have wanted in 2021, Gray is still a solid veteran RH, capable of delivering a victory on any given outing. In six career starts covering 35 innings vs. the Nationals, Gray is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Reds are also 27-12 in their last 39 games as a home favorite. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
At 2:10, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. With their victory here last night, the Cardinals' winning streak has now reached 11 games. The Brewers get one more crack at them this afternoon (they will play them again in St. Louis in five days). Their hopes for not getting swept in this four-game series will ride on the arm of RHP Adrian Houser. Overshadowed this season by Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, Houser has posted a 9-6 record with a solid 3.43 ERA in 26 games -- 24 starts -- covering 131 1/3 innings. In nine career games vs. the Cards -- six starts -- Houser is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in just over 35 innings. In two starts against them this season, Houser is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings, with nine hits allowed and 10 strikeouts. The last one was right here in Milwaukee on September 4 when Houser pitched a complete game shutout -- the first of his career -- in a 4-0 Brewers victory. The Crew is 6-0 in Houser's last six starts vs. teams with winning records. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -115 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games of this 4-game series to their division rivals, but I like them to bounce back behind lefty Brett Anderson tonight, on Wednesday. Anderson has a very good 3.04 career ERA vs. St. Louis, including a 1-run, 5-inning outing earlier this season at St. Louis. Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas' career ERA vs. Milwaukee is more than a run higher, at 4.29. And his road ERA this season is an ugly 8.59 (with a 2.04 WHIP). With the Brewers 72-43 their last 115 vs. righties, and 46-25 vs. NL Central foes, we'll take Craig Counsell's men on Wednesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -215 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -215 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The hottest team in baseball right now? It's the Cardinals who have won nine games in a row to put themselves in a somewhat comfortable position as the number two Wild Card. But the Brewers have unfinished business. They want to win the NL Central and they want to clinch it as soon as possible. They know what can happen in a Wild Card Playoff -- they've lost two in the last two seasons -- and really don't want to go there again. So, which starter is better to help them get their second pennant in the last four seasons than RH Brandon Woodruff? In 28 starts covering 169 1/3 innings, Woodruff is 9-9 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 4.71 K:BB ratio (198 strikeouts against 42 walks). In eight career games vs. the Cardinals (six starts), Woodruff is 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And the Brewers have won four of his six starts vs. St. Louis, including two of the last three. Woodruff has also done his best work at home this season, as he's 4-2 in front of the home faithful, but 5-7 on the road. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -255 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Yankees are likely pleased to see the Rangers coming to town for three games. Then again, they're probably happy to see anyone other than the Indians after the last two days as the Tribe put up 11 runs in consecutive games against New York over the weekend. With all of the struggles the Yanks have had in the second half, LHP Nestor Cortes, Jr. has been a ray of sunshine since he stepped into the Yankee rotation on July 4. In his 11 starts, the 26-year-old Cuban is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings. And the good news for start number 12 tonight is that Cortes is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 10 games (five starts) here at Yankee Stadium this season. In contrast, Cortes is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine games on the road. Tonight will be Cortes' first career start vs. the Rangers (he has made three relief appearances against them). Texas is 1-4 in the last five meetings with the Yankees here in the Bronx, and it's 27-68 (minus 22.7 net games) as a road underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-19-21 | Braves +112 v. Giants | Top | 3-0 | Win | 112 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants. This will be Max Fried's 4th career start against the Giants, and the Braves have won each of his first three, outscoring the Giants by an aggregate score of 23-8. But for those who have followed Fried's career, this 3-0 record won't come as a shock, as the Braves are a staggering 55-24 in his 79 starts. So, even though Fried and the Braves are an underdog here against the best team in baseball, we'll take Atlanta in this underdog role. One key stat for me in this game is that Fried will be working on an extra day of rest following Atlanta's 5-3 victory over Miami on Monday. And the Braves are 24-8 in Fried's 32 starts when he's been working on an extra day or two of rest. Anthony DeSclafani will get the ball for Gabe Kapler's Giants, but he's not had much success in his career vs. Atlanta (1-3, 4.85 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and he's had even less success this season in his daytime starts (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-21 | Padres +107 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. If you had heard at the beginning of the season that the game between the Padres and Cards on September 18 would be a match-up between RHPs Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright and that one of the two starters would be a favorite for the NL Cy Young, you would assume it was Darvish. But it's been the 40-year-old Cardinals ace who has had a career season, while Darvish has been a disappointment. However, Darvish can put all that behind him with a strong outing and a victory tonight which would help his club get closer to a Wild Card playoff spot. Ironically, it's the Cardinals -- among other teams -- that the Padres are battling with for that spot. We'll take San Diego tonight, as Darvish -- in six career starts vs. St. Louis covering 37 1/3 innings -- is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 49 strikeouts and nine walks. And here at Busch Stadium, Darvish sports a 2.25 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 12 innings. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-21 | White Sox -176 v. Rangers | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Texas Rangers. For the White Sox's Dylan Cease, 2021 has been like a roller coaster ride. The 25-year-old's road woes have been well documented by now. And, every now and then, the uber-talented Cease will throw in a total clunker of a start -- and sometimes even at home. His last outing was just such a clunker as Cease allowed seven runs in 2 2/3 innings at home against the Red Sox (his shortest start of the season). But after throwing a clunker, he tends to come back big in his next start. Counting last Saturday's disaster, Cease has had five outings in which he has allowed at least five runs in 5 1/3 innings or less. And in the previous four, Cease stepped up in his next start and was ultra-sharp and the Sox were victorious in all four of those follow-ups (while Cease went 3-0). The White Sox are also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Rangers. Take Chicago tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-21 | Reds -148 v. Pirates | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Reds RHP Tyler Mahle may not yet be a household name, but the 26-year-old has emerged as an ace and has a chance to finish in the top 15 in the NL Cy Young. In a full season of 29 starts, Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.73 ERA and he is currently ninth in strikeouts with 188 in his 159 1/3 innings. Start number 30 will come this afternoon against the Pirates and it's a big one as the Reds are desperately trying to climb back into second place in the NL Central and a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a team which Mahle has already beaten twice this season. In two starts vs. the Bucs, Mahle is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and 17 strikeouts vs. four walks in 12 1/3 innings. And one of those victories was right here at PNC Park. Despite the loss last night, the Reds are still 18-6 in the last 24 meetings with the Pirates. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-15-21 | Padres -102 v. Giants | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. After clinching its post-season berth two nights ago, the Giants followed up that win with a 6-1 victory over San Diego last night. But I expect San Francisco's win streak to come to a halt this evening, as San Diego has a distinct advantage on the mound. Padres righty Joe Musgrove will face off against San Francisco's Dominic Leone, who will serve as an "opener" in this game. Leone can be expected to toss 1 to 2 innings, while Musgrove will go much deeper in the game. Musgrove -- recently nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award for his work with the Challenged Athletes Foundation -- is having a terrific season. He already threw the first no-hitter in Padres history back in April. And his ERA over his last four starts is 2.05, while his WHIP is 1.02. And, notwithstanding the fact that they've lost five straight games, San Diego is still in the thick of the Wild Card race, with just 1 game separating the three leading contenders (Cardinals, Reds, Padres) for the final spot. Musgrove will be making this start on regular rest. And in his starts this season on regular rest, he has done his best work by far, with a 2.28 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-21 | Astros -202 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Those who thought that the Astros were an aging team who had lost significant players this season (Justin Verlander, George Springer) and that they might still be distracted from the fallout of the cheating scandal are perhaps eating their words right now. Houston is close to clinching yet another Division Title (it will be its fourth in the last five years) and the 'Stros also have a shot at finishing with the best record in the American League. The offense has been there all season, but you also have to give credit to a mostly young pitching staff for the job it's done. One of those young pitchers is 26-year-old RH Jose Urquidy. The third-year Major Leaguer has had some shoulder issues this season, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up some very impressive numbers. In 16 starts covering 84 2/3 innings, Urquidy is 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA. He's healthy now and looking to contribute through the playoffs. Houston is 38-19 in the last 57 meetings with Texas, and 120-64 (+19 games on the moneyline) vs. division rivals. And Urquidy is 2-0 in his starts vs. Texas with a 1.71 ERA. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-15-21 | Brewers -210 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -210 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Detroit Tigers. There has not been much that Brandon Woodruff has done wrong this season. But his last start was one of the rare instances where he pitched poorly. Woodruff surrendered 4 runs over six innings, and the Brewers wree shutout, 12-0, by the Philadelphia Phillies. Milwaukee rebounded off that shutout loss to win five straight games until they were shutout last night, 1-0, by the Detroit Tigers. I expect the Brewers and Woodruff to bounce back this afternoon against Detroit, and its righty starter, Matt Manning. Manning has a 7.10 ERA over his last three starts, and his ERA for the season is an ugly 6.13, including 6.75 in the daytime. In contrast, Woodruff's daytime ERA is a spectacular 1.87, and the Brewers are 39-19 their last 58 day games (+16.1 games on the moneyline). They're also an eye-popping 77-18 (+36.1 net games) as a favorite priced at -200 (or more). Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-21 | Red Sox -134 v. Mariners | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox were relying on Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the season and now with Chris Sale having tested positive for COVID, they really need the veteran righty to step up. This 2021 season just may have be Eovaldi's best since coming into the Majors as he was elected to his first-ever All Star game. But the 31-year-old is still not considered an MLB ace by almost any measurement.  And that's probably just fine with with the hurler, as in 28 starts covering 163 2/3 innings, Eovaldi is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Eovaldi's 1.6 walk rate is currently the best such number in the Majors. And the Red Sox are 4-0 in Eovaldi's last four starts on grass. The Mariners will go with LHP Tyler Anderson and the veteran southpaw is just 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA in 26 starts covering 148 innings between his old team -- the Pirates -- and the Mariners. Finally, the Red Sox are 12-7 in their last 19 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. Things have gone from bad to worse for the New York Yankees. In the recently concluded Subway Series over the weekend, they were only able to win one of the three games. Now they come back to the Bronx for a single game against the Twins, which is a re-scheduling of the final game of a four game series back in August due to Hurricane Henri coming ashore. The home team will hand the ball to 23-year-old rookie RHP Luis Gil for his fifth start of the season. Gil has done nothing to dissuade the Yanks from keeping him in the rotation next season. In four starts covering 19 innings, Gil is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 24 strikeouts (an 11.4 K rate). The walks have been a bit high, but that's to be expected in Gil's first Major League campaign. He'll match up against RHP John Gant, who was hit hard by the Bronx Bombers the last time he faced them, back on August 19 (4 runs in 3 1/3 innings). This has been a very one-sided series as the Twins are 22-68 in the last 90 meetings overall and just 11-43 in the last 54 here at Yankee Stadium (including 0-3 this year by an aggregate 24-8 score). And the Yankees are 37-13 at home in games projected to be high scoring (with Totals at 10 runs (or higher)). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-12-21 | Reds -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. The St. Louis Cardinals have been a dominant Major League franchise which has made the post-season in seven of the last 10 seasons. That's a proud tradition and one that is not lost on the minds of the Cards' staff and their fans. And if you want to find the last losing season for the Cards you have to go all the way back to 2007 when St. Louis went just 78-84. They beat the Reds last night but tonight Cincy will be sending RHP Sonny Gray to the mound to try to stop the bleeding. Gray seems to be putting it all together this season with a 7-6 record and 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 22 starts covering 113 2/3 innings. The Reds are 8-4 in the last 12 meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings here in St. Louis. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck....Al McMordie. |
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09-12-21 | Red Sox v. White Sox -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Boston Red Sox. Two veteran starters were scheduled to face off against each other this afternoon in Chicago. And while Lance Lynn will fulfill his obligation, Boston's Chris Sale apparently will not. Lynn is going to make his first start back from a knee injury, and while Sale had looked very good upon his return from Tommy John surgery, the 32-year-old southpaw has now tested positive for COVID 19 and will not make his sixth start. Lynn, on the other hand, appears ready to rejoin a team which has had recent struggles with the rotation so his presence on the mound today should be a welcome sight. In 24 starts covering 135 2/3 innings, Lynn is 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He is likely champing at the bit to go out this afternoon to show the team what he still has, especially against a team like the Red Sox. The road has not been friendly to Boston lately as the Sox are 6-15 in their last 22 games away from Fenway Park. Take Chicago. |
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09-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves -260 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins. It would be hard for Max Fried to duplicate his numbers from last season. In the shortened 2020 campaign Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts covering 56 innings. Despite the fact that he's lost some starts in 2021 -- and he wasn't selected as an All Star like 2020 -- Fried has still has had a pretty dominant campaign this year. In 24 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old southpaw is 11-7 with a 3.42 ERA. And his 3.49 K:BB ratio is way ahead of his 2020 number. Start number 25 will come this afternoon against the Marlins, a team he's already faced three times this season. In Fried's 10 career starts vs. the Marlins going back to the 2017 season, the Braves are 7-3. Moreover, the Marlins are 18-45 in the last 63 meetings and 17-35 in the last 52 in Atlanta. Take the Braves. |
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09-11-21 | Yankees -114 v. Mets | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the New York Mets. No doubt both of these teams would like to forget that they are struggling mightily at the moment with the Mets looking like they will be out of the post-season and the Yankees trying desperately to hold on to a Wild Card spot with the red-hot Jays breathing down their neck. Two weeks ago, the Yankees looked like world-beaters, as they were on a 13-game win streak. We had our biggest play of the season-to-date against New York in that game, and Oakland snapped the Yankees' long win streak. Dating back to that loss, New York has now lost 11 of 13 games, and they look nothing like world-beaters right now. But things can turn around fast in sports. The Yankees will hand the ball to veteran RHP Corey Kluber tonight who will try to channel the form that resulted in a no-hitter back on May 19 in Texas. He couldn't beat the O's his last time out, but the good news is that throughout his career, Kluber has been one of the most dominant inter-league performers we've seen. In 29 starts vs. teams from the NL, Kluber is 15-9 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 184 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Mets are a poor 42-69 (-18.5 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 or less. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-10-21 | Angels v. Astros -190 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Anaheim Angels. Shohei Ohtani will surely win the American League MVP Award at season's end. After all, he has 43 home runs at the plate, and a 9-1 record with a 2.97 ERA on the mound. But we'll go against Ohtani tonight in Houston, as the Astros are a jaw-dropping 70-20 at home vs. division rivals. The Astros have also dominated the better pitchers here at Minute Maid Park, as they're 34-12 their last 46 vs. pitchers who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start. Moreover, they're 19-5 vs. AL pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better). This will be Ohtani's 4th career start vs. Houston, and the Angels have lost each of the first three. Even worse, Anaheim has been outscored 72-34 by the Astros in the 12 games played thus far this season. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves -208 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. Huascar Ynoa has faced the Nationals twice already this season, and he held them without an earned run in each game (12 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB). He'll match up against Washington's RHP, Erick Fedde, who has had virtually no success in his career vs. Atlanta. He's made six starts against the Braves, and has an 0-4 record, with an ERA of 11.02, and a WHIP of 2.44. Fedde took the mound last month here, in Atlanta, and surrendered 8 hits over 4 2/3 innings, in an 8-4 defeat. The Nationals are a dreadful 26-57 (minus 18.8 games on the moneyline) as an underdog this season, and 2-9 their last 11 off a win. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -181 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies. When the Phillies desperately needed starting pitching help for the stretch drive, they got it from an unlikely source. The youngster who stepped up was none other than a somewhat obscure 26-year-old Venezuelan southpaw reliever by the name of Ranger Suarez and he hasn't looked back so far in seven starts. In 72 total innings this season, Suarez has logged an unreal 1.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and in those seven starts covering 31 2/3 innings, the ERA isn't much higher at 1.77. But perhaps more important for tonight is the fact that Suarez is 5-0 here at home vs. just 1-4 on the road so clearly Citizens Bank Park has agreed with him. This will be his first career start against the Rockies, however in one relief outing covering three innings against them, Suarez was solid, allowing no earned runs on three hits. The Rockies are 15-47 in their last 62 games as a road underdog and they are also 0-4 in their last four tries here in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. |
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09-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. For LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. and the New York Yankees, the third time just might be the charm. The 26-year-old Cuban southpaw was originally drafted by the Yanks out of Hialeah High School back in 2013 and he signed with them later that year. But when Cortes wasn't placed on New York's 40-man-roster a few years later, the Orioles picked him up by way of the Rule 5 draft in 2017. He was then returned to New York from Baltimore as part of another deal in 2018. But his second stint in pinstripes didn't last long as Cortes was shipped off to Seattle before becoming a free agent and re-signing again with the Yanks this January. And New York seems glad to have him back for a third time as Cortes has been a huge help in a rotation that's been scuffling in the second half. In nine starts, Cortes is 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and more importantly, the Yankees are 7-2 in those starts. Take the Yankees. |
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09-09-21 | Mets -166 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -166 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
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09-09-21 | Dodgers -157 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -157 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the LA Dodgers over St. Louis. Tony Gonsolin will make his return today after being shelved for shoulder inflammation. He's expected to throw 3 innings, and 50 or so pitches, before giving way to the Dodgers' league-leading bullpen. Jake Woodford will take the mound for the Redbirds, and he's been largely ineffective in his starts this year. His ERA is almost 6 runs per game (5.93), while his WHIP is a bloated 1.68. The Dodgers are 9-0 their last nine off a loss, and I look for them to bounce back off yesterday's 1-run defeat. Take Los Angeles. |
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09-08-21 | Angels v. Padres -260 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Angels. Yu Darvish will get the ball for the Padres tonight, and he'll be looking to help the Padres bounce back from last night's 4-0 loss. Improbably, the Padres (and starter) Blake Snell, had no-hit the Angels through 6 2/3 innings. But the Angels broke through with 2 runs in the 7th, and tacked on 2 runs in the 9th for the win. San Diego managed just three hits in the game, but falls into a great situation tonight. Major League teams are 57-7 their last 64 when favored by -200 (or more) if they didn't get an extra base hit in their previous game. Combine that with the fact that Darvish is 9-3 in his career vs. the Angels, with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Padres as a big home favorite this evening. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-21 | Rays v. Red Sox +100 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The good news for Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is that he has racked up 10 wins this season. And even when he's not picking up a W, the Sox are still winning when Eovaldi goes to the mound. They are 4-1 in his last five starts dating back to August 11, a game in which Boston defeated this Rays squad, 20-8. And they're 6-1 his last seven home starts. In fact, in two previous starts vs. Tampa here at Fenway Park this season, Eovaldi is 2-0 and has allowed just two runs on six hits in 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and four walks. And the combined score of those two victories was 29-10. Meanwhile, the Rays are 0-4 in Shane McClanahan's last four road starts against winning teams. And they've lost those four games by 2.75 runs per game. So, even though Tampa has had Boston's number in this series, we'll take the Red Sox to win the 3rd game of this 3-game set. Take Boston. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Luis Gil is a 23-year-old rookie pitcher from the Dominican Republic who has gone from relative obscurity to being an important piece of the New York Yankees stretch drive in a virtual blink of an eye. The Yanks' rotation is in a bit of disarray right now so they need to get the train back on the tracks and that includes giving starts to the talented RHP Gil. In three starts covering 15 2/3 innings, Gil is 1-0 and -- most importantly -- has yet to be scored on. So tonight, he will be on the hill against a Blue Jays team which easily defeated New York and its ace, Gerrit Cole last night, 5-1. But the Yankees are a super 26-13 at home when priced +125 to -125. And they're also 69-41 (+14 net games on the moneyline) off 4+ losses, and 309-200 (+40 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-07-21 | White Sox v. A's -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Chicago White Sox. The A's will be looking to bounce back off a forgettable series in Toronto where they gave up 29 runs over three games. The good news for Bob Melvin's men tonight is that righty James Kaprielian will be on the mound. The rookie is 7-4 this season with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. And at home, those numbers improve to 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He'll face another rookie tonight in Chicago's Jimmy Lambert (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who will make his 3rd start of the season after facing the Indians in his first two. Chicago is an awful 35-61 (minus 20.2 net games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 (or less), including 9-24 its last 33 on the road. Meanwhile, the A's are 45-17 vs. AL Central opponents, and 91-46 (+20.9 net games) as a home favorite. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros -209 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. With 23 starts now on his ledger for 2021, you could say this is a career season for Houston RH Lance McCullers, Jr. -- at least in terms of durability. The oft-injured 27-year-old never had more than 22 starts before this season, and one more win would also give McCullers a career high in that category as well (2018; 10-6). In those 23 starts covering just over 132 innings, McCullers is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a 10.5 strikeout rate. This will be his fourth start of the year vs. the M's, and in his three previous, McCullers has gone 2-0 with a very nice 3.18 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings. His career numbers vs. Seattle are arguably even better: 9-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 17 starts covering 97 innings. Heading into this series, the Mariners are 14-37 in the last 51 meetings and 20-45 in the last 65 in Houston. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. Thanks to an unlikely performance by the Baltimore Orioles -- they took two of three from the Yanks in the Bronx -- the Red Sox have climbed to within a half-game of New York in the standings. Of course the Sox did their part as well this weekend, taking two of three from the Indians. Now they have southpaw ace Chris Sale going in Game 1 of this critical series against the Rays. Sale has done little wrong after returning from his recovery from Tommy John surgery. In four starts covering 21 1/3 innings, Sale is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 24 strikeouts vs. only five walks. Sale is likely still building up his arm strength and it's a scary thought that he might only be 70% or so of where he can eventually get back to.  And Sale's career record vs. the Rays is another reason why Boston can be optimistic today. In 21 games vs. Tampa (19 starts) covering 128 1/3 innings, Sale is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Take the Red Sox. |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -128 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees went into their weekend series likely thinking what a great opportunity it was to add three more notches in the win column. After all, they were playing the lowly Orioles at home and after a Friday night victory, the sweep must have seemed close enough to reach out and grab. And perhaps that was precisely the problem and the reason why New York dropped the next two games. Now the Yanks come into this four game set against the Jays probably feeling like they have to win at least three if they're going to have any chance of catching the Rays. RHP Jameson Taillon takes his 8-5 record and 4.44 ERA into his 27th start this afternoon. The Yanks have won eight of his last nine starts going back to the beginning of the second half. The Jays are also 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Yankees, and 8-18 in their last 26 here in the Bronx. Take the Yankees. |
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09-05-21 | Astros -109 v. Padres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:10, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Diego Padres. The Astros' Luis Garcia has pitched himself right into the mix for the AL Rookie of the Year. Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia might be the favorite for the annual award, but Luis has to be considered the top pitching candidate for the honors. In 25 games -- including 23 starts -- covering 128 1/3 innings, the 24-year-old Venezuelan RH is 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Garcia could've gotten dejected when his team lost each of his first five starts through May 10. But the youngster kept his cool (he was still pitching well, posting a 3.60 ERA over that span) and since that time, he's gone 10-3 while the 'Stros have won 14 of his 18 starts, including each of his last five. This will be Garcia's first ever start vs. the Padres who will go with veteran RHP Chris Paddack. Paddack has really struggled this season, posting a 4.98 ERA to go with his 7-6 record in 21 games (20 starts) covering 97 2/3 innings. The Padres are 7-22 in their last 29 as a home underdog. Take the 'Stros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-21 | Braves -180 v. Rockies | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Colorado Rockies. When veteran RHP Charlie Morton signed with the Rays at the end of 2018 for a relatively inexpensive price and proceeded to go 16-6 and make his second consecutive All Star team, it seemed he might finish his career in Tampa. But after Morton regressed in the shortened 2020 season -- the second of his two year contract -- the Rays let him walk instead of re-signing him. Well, Tampa's loss seems to be Atlanta's gain as the Braves signed Morton at the exact same rate he had been paid down in Florida and now Morton is having another outstanding campaign. In 27 starts covering 151 innings, the 37-year-old is 12-5 with a 3.52 ERA and he's once again anchoring the rotation of a first-place team. Start number 28 will come in the place that many pitchers dread but for a solid veteran like Morton, pitching at Coors Field is likely not all that intimidating. Despite their loss on Saturday, the Braves are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. losing teams. Take Atlanta. |
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09-05-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -290 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -290 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. The roller coaster ride that has been RH Corey Kluber's 2021 season -- his first with the Yankees -- has somewhat mirrored that of his entire career. After his first four starts in Pinstripes, the 35-year-old former Cleveland ace was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. But right after that Kluber went on a tear in which he won four of five starts, threw a no-hitter -- in Texas -- and dropped his ERA down to 2.86. That was the end of May, and right after that, Kluber had to leave his next start and proceeded to hit the 60-day IL with a strained shoulder. The Yanks are no doubt happy to have Kluber back in the rotation and this afternoon he will try to start another win streak against the lowly Orioles. Kluber has done the best work of his career in the afternoons as in 82 day games (81 starts) the veteran is 40-20 with a 2.99 ERA in 520 innings. Additionally, in nine career starts vs. the O's covering 62 innings, Kluber is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take New York. |
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09-04-21 | White Sox -158 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. It's a good thing for them that the White Sox have a 10 game lead in the AL Central heading into the final month of the season. Chicago's two best starters -- Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn -- have ended up on the IL at the same time although both should be back from their leg injuries in time for the post-season. It's also fortunate that this team has plenty of depth because the Sox will now have to reach into its bag of tricks to fill the void left by Giolito and Lynn's absence. Enter 27-year-old Reynaldo Lopez. The RHP had successfully made the transition from starter to reliever this season and he was very effective in that role for Chicago. But now the veteran Dominican is back in the rotation, showing the team that he can do pretty much whatever is asked of him. In 14 games (three starts), Lopez is 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. In six career games (four starts) at Kauffman Stadium covering 25 1/3 innings, Lopez is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA. And Chicago is 32-12 as a road favorite priced -125 (or higher). Meanwhile, Daniel Lynch has a dreadful 14.29 career ERA vs. the ChiSox. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-03-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -165 | Top | 15-4 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers had a chance for a four game sweep against the team with the best record in the Majors last night, but they had to settle for a 3-1 series win against the Giants. That's still not too shabby and should give Milwaukee an extra confidence boost as it heads into the final stretch drive. An NL Central division title is looking more and more certain now as the Crew holds a double-digit lead over the Reds. Tonight's opponent -- the Cards -- are in third place and desperately trying to gain a Wild Card spot. 25-year-old RHP Freddy Peralta goes in his 23rd start of the season tonight and he has been one of the National League's most consistent starters this season. He is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA and .940 WHIP in just over 121 innings coming into tonight. Peralta has been particularly dominant at Miller Park throughout his career. In 47 games here -- including 20 starts -- he is 14-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 161 innings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a dismal 4-17 (minus 11.7 net games) when priced from +125 to +175 on the road. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -172 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Milwaukee Brewers. Eric Lauer was the main player involved in the 2019 trade which sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres. After a forgettable 2020 season (0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four games -- two starts) Lauer has bounced back nicely this season. In 18 games -- 14 starts -- covering just over 82 innings, the 26-year-old Brewers RHP is 4-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 82 strikeouts. Start number 15 will come against the Giants this afternoon, but it's against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. San Francisco's Logan Webb has led his team to wins in 12 of his last 13 starts, with his lone loss to these Brewers and Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes. Milwaukee won that game on August 6 by a 2-1 score, but Webb gave up just 1 run over six innings, and struck out nine. Indeed, he's given up 2 runs or less in each of his last 13 starts, for a spectacular 1.47 ERA. I look for Webb to avenge that defeat as he has a 1.75 ERA in eight home starts this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost Lauer's last four starts vs. winning teams, while the Giants are 21-5 at home when priced from -150 to -200. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-21 | Brewers v. Giants -152 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Milwaukee Brewers. When Kevin Gausman signed a one-year contract last November as a free agent to return to the San Francisco Giants for one more season, winning an NL Cy Young award was probably the furthest thing from his mind. That's to say nothing of the fact that he likely also wasn't expecting to lead his team to the best record in baseball. But here we are with one month to go and right now the 30-year-old RH has to be considered among the four starters in the National League. In 26 starts covering 152 innings, Gausman is 12-5 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. This will be his first start of the season vs. the Brewers. However for his career, Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four games against Milwaukee -- including two starts -- covering 17 innings. This is the first game of this series in which the Giants are favored. And despite their losses in the first two games, they are 42-15 in their last 57 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-31-21 | Yankees -188 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -188 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. The New York Yankees have found out recently how streaky this game of baseball can be. The Yanks put together a 13-game win streak between August 14 and 27 and just as quickly as that one came, a new three-game losing streak has arrived courtesy of the A's and Angels. New York will try to stop the recent bleeding tonight, turning to veteran RHP Jameson Taillon in the process. The 29-year-old former Pirate is 8-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 25 starts covering 127 innings. Taillon only won one game so far in August (five starts) but more important is the fact that the Yankees have been victorious in 11 of his last 12 trips to the mound going back to June 24 (and they've won his last eight). This was Shohei Ohtani's turn in the rotation, but he is not going to face the Yankees as a pitcher in this series (he will still DH) due to a sore wrist. Instead, Jaime Barria (5.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) will be on the hill for the Halos, and his career ERA vs. the Yankees is 7.20. Despite their loss here on Monday, the Yanks are still 12-6 in the last 18 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight in Anaheim. And they're 57-27 (+17 games on the moneyline) in nighttime games this season. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -179 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. This is a critical divisional matchup, as the Reds currently hold the 2nd wild card berth, but sit just 1.5 games ahead of San Diego, and 3.5 games ahead of St. Louis. After getting off to a slow start in April and May, Castillo is starting to round into form, as he has given up just 6 runs over his last three outings (2.70 ERA). And he's allowed 3 runs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts (2.81 ERA). The Reds have excelled as a favorite of -150 (or more), as they're 22-10 their last 32 (and 48-26 their last 74), including 20-7 (+6.2 net games) when priced from -175 to -250 at home. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a poor 11-23 as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take the Reds. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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08-29-21 | Royals v. Mariners -160 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Kansas City Royals. This matchup will feature Seattle southpaw Marco Gonzales vs. KC righty Brady Singer. And, in one respect, they're going in opposite directions. Gonzales has won his last four decisions, and has a 2.18 ERA over his last eight outings. In contrast, Singer has lost his last five decisions, and has a 7.78 ERA his last four trips to the mound. Gonzales was last on the hill six days ago when Seattle defeated Oakland, 5-3, so he'll be pitching with an extra day of rest. And Seattle is 8-0 in his home starts, when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-21 | Brewers -153 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota. The Twins have taken the first two games of this 3-game series, with wins behind southpaws Charlie Barnes and Andrew Albers. This afternoon, Minnesota will hand the ball to righty Griffin Jax, and that bodes especially well for Craig Counsell's men, as Milwaukee is 63-37 (+17.2 net games on the moneyline) vs. righties this season (compared to 15-15, minus 6.5 net games, vs. lefties). And it's 36-17 (+15.4 net games) in daytime action (compared to 42-35 at night, minus 4.7 net games). After an inauspicious debut on June 30 (2/3 inning, 7 runs), Brewers rookie southpaw Aaron Ashby bounced back nicely, and did not allow a run over his next two starts. We'll take Milwaukee behind its top prospect this afternoon, as the Twins have been awful this season vs. lefties (14-29, minus 20.3 net games). Take the Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-21 | Giants v. Braves -117 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants. This matchup will feature Braves righty Ian Anderson against SF's Anthony DeSclafani. Anderson will return from a stint on the injured list for his 19th start this season. He has a nice 3.56 ERA, but experienced inflammation in his throwing shoulder right before the All-Star break, so he was shelved. DeSclafani has been trending downward, as he hasn't had a quality start in any of his last four outings (13 1/3 innings, 10 runs, 6.75 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). Moreover, he's faced the Braves three times in Atlanta in his career, and his teams are 0-3, while his ERA is 5.68. With Atlanta an awesome 99-56 (+30.1 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or less), we'll take Atlanta as a short favorite this afternoon. |
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08-29-21 | Reds -170 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Miami Marlins. Cincy righty Tyler Mahle has been electric on the road this season, as he has a 7-1 record in 14 starts, with a 1.72 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. This afternoon, he'll face a Marlins team which has dropped 11 of the last 13 to the Reds. Miami will send southpaw Jesus Luzardo to the hill this afternoon. Luzardo certainly has great talent, but he's yet to put it together in the bigs, with a 7.51 ERAand 1.84 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Even worse, his numbers have declined as the season has worn on. In his last four starts, he's allowed 21 runs on 27 hits and 14 walks, over 17 1/3 innings (10.90 ERA; 2.36 WHIP). Take Cincinnati. |
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08-28-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -240 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. Jon Gray will toe the rubber for Colorado tonight, while lefty David Price will start for Dave Roberts' crew. Gray has been horrible over his last three starts, as he has a 7.72 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. And he can't use Coors Field as an excuse, as two of those three starts were away from home. Tonight, he'll pitch at Dodger Stadium, where he has a 1-6 record in eight starts, and a 6.37 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, Price has a 3.17 ERA in his 20 games at Dodger Stadium. With LA 97-29 (+25.3 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -200 (or more), we'll take David Price tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-21 | Giants +110 v. Braves | Top | 5-0 | Win | 110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Atlanta. This will be Logan Webb's 19th start of the season, and the Giants have won 14 of them, including 11 of the last 12, and 5-3 (+3.8 net games) when installed as an underdog. More good news: Webb will be pitching with an extra day of rest, and San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 when he's worked with an extra day or two of rest. Finally, Webb's career ERA when starting against Atlanta is 1.50 (with a 0.66 WHIP). Take the Giants. |
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08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota. This will be the fifth start for Twins lefty, Charlie Barnes, who has a 6.75 ERA over his first four trips to the mound. In his last start, he gave up 8 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings, in a 10-2 Twins loss. In contrast, Milwaukee's Adrian Houser has been on fire, with a 0.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last three outings. With Milwaukee 42-22 on the road this season (including 8-2 with Houser), we'll take the Brewers. |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -192 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Detroit. The Tigers have been installed as a sizable home underdog this evening. Unfortunately, they're 29-62 (minus 14.2 net games) as a home underdog of +125 (or more). And they're 86-166 (minus 38.4 games) vs. righties. The Tigers will activate righty Jose Urena off the injured list today to make this start. But his stats don't inspire confidence (2-8, 6.19 ERA, 1.65 WHIP this year; 5.79 ERA last year). Take Toronto. |
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08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners -148 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Kansas City. Seattle's lefty, Tyler Anderson, will battle fellow lefty, Daniel Lynch, in this afternoon game. Anderson faced KC earlier this season, and held the Royals to 1 run over 6 innings. He also has a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts, and has a 3.15 ERA in his eight daytime starts this season. Lynch will be making his 10th start of the season, and has a 6.48 ERA on the road, along with a 1.56 WHIP. Take Seattle. |
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08-28-21 | Yankees v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Yankees. Frankie Montas will get the ball for the A's today, and will look to end his team's six-game losing streak. It will be the 26th start of the season for Montas. And he'll face New York's lefty, Nestor Cortes, who will be making his eighth start of the season. Outside of a bad start on June 21 at Texas (8 runs in 5 2/3 innings), Montas has been extremely consistent. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in his other 13 starts since May 29, and has a 2.00 ERA over his last three outings. With the price on this game near PK'em, the value is clearly on Oakland's side here, at home, as it's 110-69 (+19.7 games on the moneyline) at home, including 42-28 (+13 net games) when priced from -125 to +125 (and Montas is 10-4 in this situation). Moreover, the A's are 74-36 (+30.3 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while New York is 19-26 (minus 17.4 games) in daytime action. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-21 | Yankees v. A's +133 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Yankees. Last night, the Yankees won their 12th straight game, 7-6, at Oakland. We'll take the A's to bounce back tonight, as the Yankees are a wallet-busting 28-27 (but MINUS 16.7 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite priced -125 (or worse). Meanwhile, Oakland is a profitable 48-44 (but PLUS 13.9 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or less). And they're 38-23 (+12.9 net games) at home with Sean Manaea on the mound. Take the A's as a home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-21 | Brewers -128 v. Twins | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota. In this battle of lefties, we'll take Milwaukee's Eric Lauer on the road vs. the Twins' Andrew Albers. Milwaukee is 42-21 (+17.4 games on the moneyline) on the road this season, including 20-8 when priced -150 (or less), while the Twins are 13-28 (minus 20.5 games) vs. lefties. Take the Brewers. |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays -160 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers. Southpaw Steven Matz will get a second crack at the Tigers after facing them last week in a 5-3 loss. Still, Matz pitched very well, as he gave up just 1 run over 6 innings. And he's allowed just 3 earned runs over his last four games (1.24 ERA). He'll face Detroit's righty, Matt Manning, who has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts, and a 5.90 ERA on the season. That bodes well for Toronto, which is 21-6 vs. AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 5.90 (or worse). Take Toronto. |
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08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +130 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. We played on the Padres last night, and lost, 5-3, in extra innings (at 16 innings, it was the longest game played in the current extra innings format). Tonight, it will be a match-up between Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. We'll take the Padres as a home underdog, as Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.59 WHIP vs. Los Angeles in his career. And when these two pitchers matched up here in San Diego last month (when Scherzer was with Washington), the Padres rocked Scherzer for 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings. Take Darvish and the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -153 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Zach Eflin was a first round draft pick of the San Diego Padres out of High School in 2012 . He made it to the Majors four years later at the age of 22 and the fact that he hasn't fulfilled the potential of a 1st rounder certainly isn't too surprising. Injuries have been the biggest obstacle for the now 27-year-old RHP. Eflin has never stayed healthy enough to make 30 starts in a season and this year is no exception as Eflin already spent one stint on the IL with tendinitis in his knee. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page at you -- a 4-7 record with a 4.17 ERA in 18 starts covering 105 2/3 innings -- but one thing that does get your attention is how well Eflin has pitched at home. In eight starts at Citizens Bank Park, he is 2-2 with a 3.02 ERA vs. just 2-5 and 5.12 in 10 starts on the road. He's back home tonight to face the worst team in the NL and a starter -- Zac Gallen - who has lost his last seven decisions, and is 1-7 in 16 starts. Even worse: Arizona is 1-12 the last 13 times he's taken the mound. And the D-Backs are 7-41 in their last 48 road games. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +134 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his last start, former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell took the loss vs. Philly, but pitched relatively well. Indeed, over his four August starts, the San Diego southpaw struck out at least six in each game, and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of them, for a 2.45 ERA. Moreover, he's been very effective vs. the Dodgers this season. In three starts, Snell's allowed just 4 runs over 15 1/3 innings (2.34 ERA), including 5 innings of scoreless ball his last time out vs. Los Angeles. Finally, over the last three seasons, Los Angeles has dominated right-handed starters (171-85 (+29.7 games on the moneyline), but is unprofitable vs. lefties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -117 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago. Lefty Robbie Ray will take the mound for the Jays on Wednesday, and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, covering 58 2-3 innings (1.84 ERA). Even better: in those nine games, Ray has struck out 65, while he's walked just 15, and allowed just 38 hits (0.90 WHIP). In his last start against Chicago, back in early June, he struck out a season-high 13 batters (against 0 walks), and he allowed just 1 run over 6 1-3 innings. Take the Blue Jays. |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies -135 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Tampa Bay Rays. This series represents a repeat of the 2008 World Series, won by the Phillies. They were the better team that year for sure, but the Rays might just be better than them in 2021 and almost certainly have a better chance of getting back to the Fall Classic as of this writing. Zack Wheeler will go in his 26th start of the season for the home team tonight. The 31-year-old RHP is having his best season in the Majors with a 10-8 record, a 2.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a league-leading three complete games (two shutouts) and 194 strikeouts. And Wheeler was named an All Star for the first time in his seven campaigns in the Majors. In two previous starts vs. AL teams in 2021, Wheeler is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with 26 strikeouts and seven hits allowed in 14 1/3 innings. Finally, the Rays are only 4-7 in the last 11 meetings with the Phillies here at Citizens Bank Park. Take Philadelphia. |
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08-24-21 | Royals v. Astros -230 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals. Luis Garcia is a second-year rookie starter for the Astros who is quietly making a case for AL Rookie of the Year consideration. In 23 games -- including 21 starts -- the 24-year-old RH is is 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 137 strikeouts in just under 117 innings. Those are very solid numbers for someone who is no better than a number three starter for his team. Start number 22 will come tonight and it will be his second straight outing vs. the Royals. The key to tonight's start however is that it will be at home, as he faced them in Kansas City in his last start last Thursday. In 12 games here at Minute Maid Park (10 starts), Garcia is 5-3 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings. In 11 starts on the road, he is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. Houston is 12-6 its last 18 vs. KC, and is 12-4 in Garcia's last 16 starts going back to May 15. And Houston is a perfect 7-0 with Garcia at home when the total was less than 9 runs. Meanwhile, the Royals are 8-14 (minus 4.9 games on the moneyline) off a win by more than 5 runs, and 30-46 (minus 7.4 games) after not allowing 3+ runs. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-21 | White Sox +117 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-2 | Win | 117 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.  By now, the White Sox's Dylan Cease's road struggles this season are well documented. In 13 starts at home, the 25-year-old is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA. However, in 12 road starts he is just 4-4 with a 5.68 number. But the 25-year-old RH has shown great improvement in his recent road starts which must give him -- and his team -- confidence heading into the stretch drive and a likely extended post-season run. In his last three starts away from Chicago, Cease has allowed seven earned runs on 13 hits in 16 innings for a 3.93 ERA. He'll look to extend that road success tonight in his 26th start of the season in Toronto. It will be his first career start vs. the Blue Jays. Despite their difficult 2-1 loss last night, the Sox are 9-5 in the last 14 games here at the Rogers Centre, while Toronto's 98-120 (minus 23.1 games) at night, and 79-87 (minus 16.6 games) off a win. The Jays will go with recently-acquired RHP Jose Berrios (from the Twins). Berrios' teams are just 3-9 (-10 games on the moneyline) in his last 12 starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -229 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -229 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals. "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" is a popular misquote attributed to Mark Twain but it could just as easily apply to the Astros' Zack Greinke. The 37-year-old RHP was once considered one of the best pitchers in the game, but he is little more than an afterthought these days, which does not do him justice. Sure, his Cy Young days are behind him, but Greinke is still capable of pitching like an ace and he's doing just that this season with the first-place Astros. Hard to believe, but Greinke was not an All Star last month and now six starts into the second half, he is sitting with an 11-3 record and 3.43 ERA in a league-leading 25 starts covering just under 150 innings. The fact that he is flying under the radar this season is likely just fine with the former Royal as he faces his old team tonight. In six career starts vs. the Royals covering 37 innings, Greinke has a 2.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Kansas City is also 5-12 in the last 17 meetings with the 'Stros. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox -288 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox needed a break after going 6-16 in their last 22 games and they got one courtesy of Mother Nature. Tropical Storm Henri hit the northeast coast on Sunday and that postponed Boston's final game with the Rangers. The one-game delay allows the Sox to send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound in the series finale today on extra rest. The pitching matchup at Fenway Park this afternoon favors Boston, as Texas will hand the ball to southpaw Kolby Allard. Boston desperately needs a win after falling seven games behind the Rays and now locked in a close battle with the A's for the final Wild Card spot. Eovaldi is 10-8 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 24 starts covering 138 innings. He also leads the league with the lowest HR rate allowed at 0.7 -- something that might come in handy against the free-swinging Rangers. In his career vs. Texas, Eovaldi has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, which greatly compares to Allard's career 15.00 ERA vs. Boston. Even better: Texas has won just 6 of 31 daytime road games this season, while Boston is an awesome 291-94 (+62 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -200 (or higher). Finally, Texas has been solid this season vs. lefties (22-27, PLUS 5.8 GAMES on the moneyline), but horrible vs. righties (21-53, minus 26.5 games on the moneyline). Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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08-22-21 | Giants v. A's -108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the San Francisco Giants. This afternoon represents the rubber game in the latest battle for bragging rights in the Bay Area. The A's took Game 1 of this series on Friday and then the Giants responded yesterday, scoring two in the top of the ninth for a 6-5 road victory. Frankie Montas gets the call today for the home team. The 28-year-old has had a very nice bounce-back campaign in 2021 after stinking things up in the shortened 2020 season (3-5 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts). In 24 starts this season, Montas is 9-9 with a 4.04 ERA in 136 innings. This will be Montas' second career start vs. the Giants as he pitched well in a no-decision on June 21 of this season. The A's have won three of Montas' last four starts and he has done his best work this season in day games going 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA in seven afternoon starts vs. just 6-7 and 4.30 in 17 under the lights. Despite their win last night, the Giants are 4-7 in the last 11 meetings with the A's. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -205 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cards' Adam Wainwright has dominated Pittsburgh in his career. In 45 games -- including 39 starts -- covering just over 250 innings vs. the Bucs, Wainwright has a record of 19-7. He'll be going for victory number 20 against them this afternoon. He's also going to try to prevent what would be an embarrassing three-game sweep at the hands of one of the worst teams in the league at home as the Pirates took both Friday's and Saturday's contests. Wainwright has been one of a very few bright spots for a 2021 Cards team that most people made the favorite to win the NL Central. The 39-year-old RHP is 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24 starts covering 154 2/3 innings and he leads the league in complete games (3). The Cards have won Wainwright's last six starts vs. Pittsburgh going back to July 2019. Take St. Louis. |
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08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres -157 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. There's no question that Aaron Nola is the ace of the Phillies staff. But when you're an ace on a team vying for a Division Title, you better pitch like one. And Nola hasn't exactly been doing that lately. Nola looked like he might be breaking out of his funk with two very strong starts to end the month of July. But August has seen a return to mediocrity for the 28-year-old RHP and now the Phillies have surrendered the NL East lead to the red-hot Braves. Veteran righty Joe Musgrove gets the ball for Jayce Tingler's Padres tonight, and his career ERA vs. Philly is 1.50. Even better: in 12 home starts this season, Musgrove has a 2.43 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, while Nola's road ERA in 13 starts is 5.56. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-21 | Mariners +140 v. Astros | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston. Logan Gilbert has been the 2nd most profitable pitcher in baseball this season (from a betting perspective), as the Mariners are 11-5 in his 16 starts (+9.2 games on the moneyline). Jake Odorizzi, on the other hand, has not rewarded his backers, as he is 7-9, minus 3.9 games on the moneyline this season. For the season, the Astros' righty has an ERA north of five runs a game, while his ERA over his last three starts is 6.75. Take Seattle as a road underdog. |
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08-21-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -210 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals. The Brewers have been dominant over the years as a big favorite, as they're now 73-18 (+32.1 games on the moneyline) when priced at -200 (or more). They'll hand the ball to lefty Eric Lauer this afternoon. And he's been on fire of late, as he's given up just 3 earned runs over his last six starts (0.83 ERA; 0.89 WHIP).  In stark contrast, Washington's Paolo Espino's ERA over his last three starts is 10.80, with a 2.10 WHIP. And his season ERA in his road starts is 6.51. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-21-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -240 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Detroit. Wily Peralta has been installed as a big underdog this afternoon, which does not bode well for the Tigers, as his teams are 1-12 with him on the mound, when priced from +175 to +250. Meanwhile, the Jays are 12-3 their last 15 as a home favorite of -200 (or more), and 29-15 (+9.8 games on the moneyline) in day games this season. Finally, Hyun-Jin Ryu's teams are 11-0 their last 11 as a home favorite of -200 (or more) in his starts. Take Toronto. |
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08-21-21 | White Sox v. Rays -127 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. Last night, the Rays' 4-game win streak was snapped, as they lost in extra inning to the ChiSox. But we'll take Tampa to bounce back this afternoon, as Chicago's Dallas Keuchel owns a 2-5 record in his nine starts vs. Tampa (his teams are 3-6). Even worse for Keuchel: he has a 4.84 ERA on the road this season, and a 5.51 ERA in his daytime starts. In contrast, Luis Patino's home ERA is 2.04, while his ERA in daytime games is 1.54. Take Tampa. |
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08-20-21 | Phillies v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -195 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. It's a battle of southpaws tonight, as Blake Snell will face Matt Moore. We'll take San Diego's former Cy Young Award winner, as he's been pitching very well of late. In his last three starts, Snell as a 1.59 ERA, and he's struck out 25 against just 14 hits and eight walks. Snell's done his best work at home this season, as he has a 2.40 ERA here, in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Phillies hurler has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts, and owns a 7.36 career ERA vs. the Padres. Finally, the Phils are a dreadful 36-59 as a road underdog (minus 11.7 games on the moneyline), while Snell's teams are 42-20 (+15.8 games) in his home starts, including 21-5 when priced at -150 (or more). Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-20-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -230 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -230 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals. What the Brewers have done this season is pretty remarkable -- they lead their division by almost 10 games -- especially given the fact that few people expected them to be contenders. And this performance is even more remarkable when you consider that their best offensive player -- OF Christian Yelich -- has been underperforming most of the season and really hasn't contributed much at all. The 2018 NL MVP is batting just .232 with six home runs, 32 RBI and a .734 OPS. Speaking of under-achievers, the Nats have had almost too many to mention this season which led to their decision to pretty much dismantle the team at the trade deadline. LHP Brett Anderson will go for the Brew Crew tonight. And, although not pitching as well as Milwaukee's three aces, the 33-year-old has been more than serviceable at the back end of the rotation with a 4.09 ERA in 18 starts. The Nats are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings, and 1-6 in the last seven here in Milwaukee. Take the Brewers. |
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08-20-21 | White Sox -120 v. Rays | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay Rays come into this match-up of first place teams having won four games in a row and putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the AL East. But that four-game sweep was at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles, so things will get exponentially harder here in this series against the White Sox. For starters, there's no pitcher in the Orioles rotation close to the talent level of Sox ace Lucas Giolito. Sure, at 9-9 and 3.83 ERA through 24 starts, you could call this season a bit of a disappointment for the 27-year-old RHP, but Giolito is still capable of tossing a gem on any given start. Giolito's ERA is slightly higher on the road this season (3.90 vs. 3.77). But he has a winning record away from Chicago (5-3) compared to 4-6 in his 12 home starts. Even better, in two career starts at Tropicana Field, covering 13 2/3 innings, Giolito has a 1.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. And the Sox are 5-1 in the last six meetings here in St. Pete. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-20-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -250 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -250 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers. From the time Robbie Ray came into the league, baseball people would say, "if he could only fix his control issues..." The hard-throwing southpaw's walk rate over the last three seasons heading into 2021 had been 5.1 (2018), 4.3 (2019), and 7.8 (2020). But 2021 has finally seen a breakthrough. The now-29-year-old has a walk rate this season of 2.4, And as a result, Ray is enjoying his best campaign since his 2017 All Star season. In 23 starts covering just over 137 innings, Ray is 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. This will be only Ray's second career start vs. the Tigers who are just 33-77 in their last 110 road games vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, the Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. teams with losing records. Finally, Detroit is just 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in Toronto. Take the Blue Jays. |
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08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds -250 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Miami Marlins. Tonight begins a four-game set between the Marlins and Reds in Cincinnati and the question for Game 1 is "which version of Luis Castillo will show up?" Will it be the one who went 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in a stretch of eight starts between June 26 and August 4? Or will it be the pitcher who's gone 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in his last two starts (against the Indians and Phillies). I'm betting it will be the first version for a very simple reason. Those last two starts were on the road, but Castillo is back home tonight at Great American Park where he has done by far his best work this season. In 12 starts here, the 28-year-old RH is 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA vs. just 2-7 and 5.27 in 13 starts on the road. Moreover, in four career starts vs. Miami, covering 29 1/3 innings, Castillo is 3-0 with a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Miami is also 2-5 in the last seven meetings here in Cincinnati. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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