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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +176 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 176 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have all the respect in the world for the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, as I think he's one of the three most talented pitchers in the league. But this is a big price for him to lay on the road. And especially against a team which bombed him last season for 5 runs in 4 2-3 innings (9.64 ERA). This season, Buehler's road ERA is 3.76, while Vincent Velasquez's ERA in his home starts is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. The Phillies have been underdogs in seven of their last eight home games vs. Los Angeles, yet are 5-3 (+6 games on the money line) in those games. Take the Phillies as a huge home dog on Tuesday night. |
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07-16-19 | Rays v. Yankees -154 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. How satisfying would it be if, in perhaps his final season in the Majors, future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia were to win his second World Series ring? At the very least, it must be at least a little daunting for a team (like Tampa Bay) to know that it will be facing the active pitcher with the most wins in the league (251). And the fact that Sabathia can still bring it only adds to that intimidation factor. There are plenty of starters in the league who would love to have a winning record (5-4 in Sabathia's case) with a 4.03 ERA after 14 starts. So, the fact that this is far from the veteran southpaw's best season doesn't really matter at this point. Sabathia still has some life left in that left arm and perhaps the most telling stat is the fact that Yanks are 8-6 in his starts this season. He also has some very good numbers against the Rays, with 18 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 52 career starts covering a whopping 338 innings. And Sabathia hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight starts vs. the Rays going back to July of 2017. Take the Yankees. |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers are likely in the market for a starting pitcher in the next two weeks as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. But until they get one, they will keep sending guys like journeyman RHP Adrian Houser out to the mound to fill out the back end of their rotation. Houser is a 26-year-old who's been in the league since 2015, and has primarily been used as a reliever this season. Indeed, he's had just five starts this year. Admittedly, Houser's walk rate is probably too high for him to ever ascend to the top of any rotation. But he also possesses a very high strikeout rate and he seems to be getting better with every bit of experience the Crew is willing to give him. This will be his sixth start of the season but only his third at home, where Houser has done by far his best work of 2019. In eight appearances here (two starts) Houser has a 1.88 ERA in just over 18 innings. LHP Max Fried started out hot for the Braves, but in his last eight starts, Fried has allowed 29 runs on 60 hits in 42 1/3 innings raising his ERA from 2.88 to 4.29. Milwaukee's 127-89 (+20 games on the money line) at home, and 52-35 its last 87 vs. NL East division foes. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +192 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Ariel Jurado is a 23-year old, second-year starter for the Rangers who potentially has a bright future in the Majors -- a future that could last quite a long time. Sure, Jurado's numbers this season don't jump off the page at you -- a 5-4 record with a 4.23 ERA in 19 games, (nine starts). But when you consider that that ERA is almost two runs below his number in 2018 (5.93), then you can see what an improvement Jurado has made between last season and this. After seven shutout innings in his last start in June, Jurado looked like he might have a serious breakout, but he threw in a big clunker in his next start and was "rewarded" with a trip back to the bullpen on July 7 -- throwing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in a Rangers victory. The young RH will come back to the rotation this afternoon to face a very good Astros team. But it's also a team he's done well against in his career, going 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games (one start) vs. Houston. The Rangers have taken four of the last five meetings between these Lone Star state rivals, and are a live underdog this afternoon. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats came back and won on Saturday night, thanks to a bullpen meltdown by the Phillies. Thus, Washington will go for the series sweep on the road this afternoon, behind one of its hottest pitchers in RH Anibal Sanchez. The Phils will counter with veteran RH Jake Arrieta, who got knocked around pretty good before the All-Star break thanks to some elbow issues. But the 33-year-old is one of the toughest players in the league and he used the break to heal up a bit and has been cleared for this start today. One thing that's given Sanchez fits in the past has been pitching at Citizens Bank Park. In 14 appearances here (all starts), Sanchez is 2-8 with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in just under 75 innings. And he's also 5-11 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 career starts vs. the Phillies covering just over 124 innings. Meanwhile, despite Arrieta's recent struggles, the Phils are 4-2 in his six starts since the beginning of June and they haven't lost one of his home starts in almost two months (May 15 vs. Milwaukee). Take Philadelphia. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -205 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Two All Star starters from the AL squad will face off this afternoon as RH Marcus Stroman and the Jays finish off this three-game series in the Bronx against the Yankees and RH Masahiro Tanaka. While Stroman pitched like an All-Star right up to the break, Tanaka certainly did not. The mid-summer break couldn't have come at a better time for Tanaka, who has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last three. But most of that damage was due to a particularly ugly start on June 29 in London against the Red Sox (6 ER in 0.2 IP). If you take that one out of the mix, Tanaka's recent numbers look pretty good (and the Yanks are 3-0 in those last three starts anyway). The fact that he has a 3.86 ERA overall tells you how well Tanaka has pitched aside from that disaster in London. And Tanaka loves pitching against the Jays as he is 11-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 starts against them. Moreover, those 11 wins are the most he's posted against any opponent. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take New York. |
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07-13-19 | Giants v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Davies may have felt a little upset after being snubbed for an NL All-Star Team spot last week. After all, the 26-year-old RHP is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts. And those are better stats than some of the pitchers who got picked to represent the NL -- which lost to the AL in the game, 4-3. But if Davies feels that way, then the best thing he can do is prove the rest of this season that he should've been selected for the mid-summer classic. He'll go up against a guy who's made four All Star appearances in his career in 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. If Bumgarner was trying to impress potential trade suitors this season by presenting himself as an attractive veteran southpaw, then he has a lot of work to do. Mad-Bum is just 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA in his 19 starts so far. And he's been much worse on the road, going 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in eight starts away from Oracle Park (as opposed to 3-2 and 3.62 in 11 starts in San Fran). The Giants are also an awful 8-20 in Bumgarner's last 28 starts away from home. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +158 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. Dodgers RHP Ross Stripling began the season in the L.A. rotation. But he didn't last even the first month in that role, though it was due to no fault of his own as Stripling compiled a 2.65 ERA over his first six starts covering 34 innings. But some injured starters returned to the rotation and Stripling found himself in the bullpen at the end of April. After a bad outing in his last appearance in April, Stripling settled down and didn't allow more than one earned run in any single bullpen outing from the beginning of May through June 20, picking up two wins (vs. no losses) along the way. Now Stripling has found himself back in the rotation thanks to a forearm injury to LHP Rich Hill, who likely won't be back until late August. So far, Stripling's latest stint as a starter hasn't gone as he would have liked. But perhaps a start against the Red Sox will help turn things around. In 16 career inter-league appearances (four starts), Stripling is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just over 41 innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrid 6-12 (minus 19 games on the money line) with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound this season. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-12-19 | Giants v. Brewers -183 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -183 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. It's a match-up of a pair of right-handed Andersons as Shaun takes the mound for the Giants opposite Chase and the Brewers tonight, in Milwaukee. It's widely believed that the Giants will be shopping a bunch of players from now through the deadline (and beyond) with almost no veteran safe from being moved if the price is right. For now , however, the Giants are just a bad team instead of the terrible (think Orioles) team they will be after their fire sale. Not only do the two starters tonight have the same last name, but they also have remarkably similar stats in 2019. Shaun is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts, while Chase is 4-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 games (12 starts). But we'll back Milwaukee, as it has the far superior offense backing its pitcher tonight. The Giants are also 3-7 in the last 10 meetings and 1-5 in the last six in Milwaukee. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-12-19 | Dodgers -101 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Boston. This is a great match-up between two of the best teams in baseball. Unfortunately for Boston, it has not excelled vs. the better clubs (though it has beat up on the weak teams). Indeed, Boston is a wallet-busting 15-20 (minus 10 games on the money line) vs. winning teams this season. Even worse, the Red Sox are a horrid 0-7 this year at home in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Los Angeles has been very good vs. lefties (99-59), and handled Eduardo Rodriguez very well in a 9-6 victory in last season's World Series. Take the Dodgers at Fenway Park tonight. |
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07-12-19 | Twins +129 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 129 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. No team has had a run the last few weeks like the Indians. The Tribe is red-hot, having won six in a row, pulling within 5 1/2 games of the Twins entering the break. However, let's keep in mind that this is also a very banged-up squad which has a way of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, as we've seen many times before. The Twins will open the second half with RHP Kyle Gibson getting his 18th start tonight, and it's been a very successful season so far for the 31-year-old. Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA and, so far in two July starts, he has posted his best ERA of any month at 2.57. The Tribe's RH Mike Clevinger is very talented for sure, but a negative trend stand out. Cleveland is just 2-9 in his last 11 starts vs. winning teams. Take Minnesota. |
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -154 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -154 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Joey Lucchesi has not pitched well on the road this season. In six starts, his ERA in north of 6 runs per game (6.10). He'll match up against the Dodgers' RHP Ross Stripling, who has a 2.96 ERA in four home starts this season. Even better for Los Angeles: it's won each of Stripling's last five starts. And the Dodgers are also 37-11 (+18 games on the money line) at home this season, and 17-5 (+10 games on the money line) in day games. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-07-19 | Rockies -126 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over Arizona. German Marquez will start for the Rockies, which bodes well for the road team this afternoon. Colorado's won each of Marquez's last five starts vs. Arizona, and the Rockies are also a solid 25-13 (+9 games on the money line) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 11-3 with Marquez on the mound. And they're 31-15 (+12 games on the money line) as a favorite of -110+ with Marquez over the last three seasons, and 6-0 in his daytime starts this year. Take the Rockies. |
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07-07-19 | Cardinals -119 v. Giants | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco. The Giants' veteran RHP Jeff Samardzija has been dreadful over the last few years, as he's 6-15 in his last 21 decisions. And the Giants have lost seven of his last 10 starts. This game is near Pk'em, which happens to also be one of Samardzija's worst performance categories, as his teams have gone 42-73 (minus 32 games on the money line) when priced between -125 and +125 with him on the hill. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 25-10 this season when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 11-3 as a road favorite. Take St. Louis. |
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07-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves -210 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Miami. Southpaw Dallas Keuchel will make his 2nd home start for the Braves this afternoon (and 4th start, overall). In his other home start, he gave up just 2 earned runs over seven innings vs. the Phillies. This afternoon, he'll face a lesser foe in the Marlins, who have lost five of their last six games. Keuchel's career ERA vs. the Fish is 1.50, while his mound opponent -- Trevor Richards -- is 0-3 lifetime vs. Atlanta. This season, Atlanta is 41-20 (+14 games on the money line) as a favorite. Take the Braves. |
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07-07-19 | Brewers -103 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite some average numbers, it appears that RHP Chase Anderson's spot in the Brewers' rotation is safe -- at least until they find a better option. Anderson is 4-2 with a 4.31 ERA overall this season and 3-2 with a 4.27 number as a starter (11 starts). Anderson has 16 career starts against the Pirates and he is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in just over 83 innings in those. And those eight victories represent the most that he's logged against any opponent. Pittsburgh will go with RHP Joe Musgrove, who has a slightly better ERA than Anderson but who's been on the short end more often than not with a 6-7 record in 17 starts. Musgrove has faced the Brewers three times in his career and the results have not been pretty. He is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in just under 18 innings. And PNC Park has not been kind to him as he is 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA in 20 starts here covering 115 innings. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Crew is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and they are 8-2 in Anderson's last 10 starts against them. Milwaukee is a super 70-45 (+15 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Brewers. |
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07-07-19 | Yankees +106 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 57-30 this season, so anytime they're installed as an underdog, they're certainly worth consideration. Yesterday, they lost, 4-3, to Tampa Bay. But that was the first time in seven games that the Rays defeated the Yankees. Indeed, the Yankees have dominated division rivals, as they're 29-8 their last 37 vs. American League East division foes. This afternoon, Tampa will face southpaw James Paxton for the fourth time in his career. Unfortunately for the Rays, they're 0-3 in the first three. Even worse, over the last three seasons, Paxton's teams have excelled in the underdog role with him on the mound, as they've cashed 64% of the time. With the Rays just 5-12 this season as as home favorite of -150 or less, we'll fade Tampa Bay on this Sunday. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -150 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda had a rare stumble in his last start, lasting just 4 1/3 innings while allowing two runs on three hits. But those numbers really aren't that bad when you consider that that outing -- his 16th start of the season -- was at Coors Field. The veteran Japanese starter is still 7-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season. And tonight he gets another start at his home ballpark, where he has excelled this season. In seven starts at Dodger Stadium, Maeda is 5-1 with a superb 2.05 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 44 innings. In contrast, Maeda has a 2-3 record and 5.52 ERA on the road this season. Even better: tonight's game is against a Padres team which has plated just 18 runs in its last six games. And the Padres are an ugly 16-38 in their last 54 meetings with the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-19 | Rangers +148 v. Twins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Minnesota Twins. There were several surprise teams in the first half of the season, but none more so than the Rangers. Many picked Texas to finish in the cellar of the division -- well under a .500 record. But a little more than halfway through the season and the Rangers are 47-41. Almost as surprising as the team itself is the performance of reliever/spot starter Jesse Chavez. The 35-year-old RHP is 3-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 36 appearances covering just under 58 innings. More impressive -- and more relevant for this afternoon -- is the fact that Chavez is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA in his six starts. Additionally, in his career, he is a perfect 2-0 vs. the Twins, with a sparkling 2.35 ERA in 11 games (including three starts). And here, at Target Field, Chavez has allowed just one earned run in 18 1/3 innings in four appearances (two starts). That equates to an ERA of 0.49. The Twins will go with RHP Michael Pineda this afternoon, and they are 1-4 in his last five starts vs. winning teams. And Pineda's a horrid 0-4 in his five career starts, with a 5.66 ERA, vs. the Rangers. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-05-19 | Rangers v. Twins -163 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Texas Rangers. It seem lately that the Twins can do no wrong when it comes to signing small free agent contracts for reasonable amounts with veteran starters who have had less-than-stellar careers. One of the latest examples is LHP Martin Perez, who signed a $7 million contract with Minny back at the end of January (following seven years with Texas). The veteran southpaw is 7-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 17 games including 14 starts covering 89 innings so far this season. And tonight will be Perez's first career start against the only other team for which he's played. Perez has found his new home ballpark to his liking as he is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight games here (seven starts). (In contrast, he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in nine games on the road.) The Twins are a super 35-16 in their last 51 home games. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-05-19 | Phillies +177 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 177 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Phillies had a very a rough period in mid-June. In a two-week stretch between June 9 and June 23, the Phils lost 11 of 13 games, dropping them almost to the .500 mark for the season. But since then, the Phillies have rebounded, going 6-4 over their last 10 games coming into this weekend series. Veteran RHP Vince Velasquez will go to the hill for the Phils tonight. And although his numbers so far this season are nothing to write home about (2-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 19 games including nine starts), he loves pitching in Queens. In six starts at Citi Field, covering 32 innings, Velasquez is 2-1 with a very nice 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Start #7 for him here won't be easy given that Jacob deGrom is going to the mound for the home team. But the Mets have really been struggling lately. In their last 10 games, New York is just 2-8. The Mets are also 1-6 in deGrom's last seven starts and 1-7 in his last eight vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Phils. |
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07-05-19 | Brewers -114 v. Pirates | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. 1-0 final scores in the Majors are rare these days, but the Brewers played one yesterday, getting shut out in Cincinnati by the Reds and their ace, Luis Castillo. Don't expect a 1-0 game tonight, especially with the way the Pirates have been scoring lately. But the Brew Crew has a big advantage on the mound, with veteran RHP Zach Davies getting the start opposite LHP Steven Brault of the Pirates. In 17 starts this season, Davies is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA in just under 92 innings. And while Brault's numbers this season aren't bad (3-1 with a 4.29 in 14 games including eight starts) he has faltered quite a bit at PNC Park. In six games here (three starts), Brault is winless (0-1) and has posted an ugly 4.84 ERA. In 33 career games here at home -- including 10 starts -- Brault is 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in just under 96 innings. Heading into this weekend series, the Brewers are 7-1 in the last eight meetings. And they're also 103-63 (+26 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-04-19 | Phillies +143 v. Braves | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. For Phillies RHP Zach Eflin, 2019 has been a glass-half-empty/glass-half-full season so far. On the positive side, there is the fact that the 25-year-old has a 3.34 ERA in his 16 starts. He also has a league-leading two complete games, including one shutout. But on the not-so-positive side is Eflin's 7-7 record. And he's also allowed 15 home runs, which is one behind his career-high in a full season (16 in 2017 & 2018). But if there's anything that could jump-start Eflin's season as we head into the second half, then it's a start against the Braves. In three career starts vs. Atlanta, Eflin is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 23 innings. And in his only other previous start here at SunTrust Park, the former first-round pick (Padres) tossed seven sharp innings, and allowed just one earned run and eight baserunners. Despite their loss on Wednesday night, the Phillies are still a solid 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with the Braves. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-19 | Yankees v. Rays +104 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees. When LHP J.A. Happ came to the Bronx in the second half of 2018, it looked like a perfect marriage. Happ had been pretty good in Toronto (10-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts), but when he joined the Yankees, he went into another zone. In 11 starts with the Yanks after being traded last July 26, Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and seemed poised to pick it up in 2019 right where he left off. But so far, it's been a lost season for the 36-year-old who, despite a 7-4 record, has logged an ugly 5.23 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 84 innings. In the beginning of the season, most of Happ's issues were happening at home. But lately, Happ has been knocked around pretty good on the road as well. His last road start was in Chicago and he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings to the White Sox. Start #17 comes on the road and Tropicana Field has not been kind to Happ as he is 1-2 with a 5.36 ERA in 10 games here (nine starts) covering 43 2/3 innings. Take the Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-03-19 | Yankees -142 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the New York Mets. After two games in London that saw a total of 50 runs scored -- almost two-thirds of which (29) were plated by the Yanks in their two victories -- the Bronx Bombers needed a day off on Monday. And it's not surprising that when they returned to work on Tuesday, the Yankees were a little flat, and lost the first game of this series to their cross-town rivals by a 4-2 margin. Not only did the Mets beat the Yanks, but they ended their consecutive home run streak at 31 games with last night's victory. But the Yankees have something else to look forward to tonight. Their 26-year-old RHP, Domingo German, was arguably their best pitcher for much of the first half. But a hip flexor injury sidelined German in early June and he's been idle ever since. Tonight will mark the return of German to the Yanks' rotation and you can never have enough great arms in there. The Mets will counter with LHP Jason Vargas and they are 1-4 in Vargas' last five home starts vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 17-9 in German's 26 career starts. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-03-19 | Cubs -129 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. We're not sure how the Cubs felt about Pittsburgh before this series started, but there's a good chance they can't wait to get out of town after the way the first two games went. The Bucs have not only beaten the Cubbies on Monday and Tuesday night, but they've out-scored them by an embarrassing total of 23-6. The Pirates acquired RH starter Chris Archer from the Rays last season in the deal which sent Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow south to St. Pete. At the time, it probably looked like a pretty good deal for the Bucs. But in his first full season with the Pirates, Archer is just 3-6 in 14 starts. And the 5.50 ERA he has put up in 73 2/3 innings is the highest such number he's logged since he came into the Majors in 2012. Start number 15 comes tonight and, given how the first two games of this series went, you have to wonder whether tonight there will be an offensive letdown for the home team. The Cubs will go with veteran RHP Yu Darvish and they are 4-1 in his last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-19 | Twins -117 v. A's | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -117 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. In his second year with the Twins, RHP Jake Odorizzi has been awarded his first All Star selection and it's well-deserved. The 29-year-old is 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts covering just under 86 innings. The former Tampa Bay Ray is having his best season ever since he came into the Majors in 2012 as a 22-year-old. Odorizzi will try for win number 11 tonight in Oakland and it's a venue that has been pretty kind to him in the past. In three previous starts at the Coliseum, Odorizzi is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.29 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in 21 innings. RHP Daniel Mengden will go for the A's. And although the 26-year-old is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in six games (four starts) this season, Mengden has also issued 16 walks in his 29 innings. And that walk rate (5.0) is going to catch up to him at some point. The Twins are 12-1 in Odorizzi's last 13 starts while the A's are 5-12 in their last 17 home games vs. teams with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-19 | Cubs -128 v. Pirates | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -128 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates blasted the Cubs by an 18-5 score last night, which is easily the worst defeat of the season so far for the north-siders. The Cubs will try again tonight in Game 2 of this series. And unlike Monday, when they sent an inexperienced starter to the mound, Chicago will go with the veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks tonight. Hendricks is following up his solid 2018 season with an almost identical campaign so far this season, as the 29-year-old is 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 starts covering just over 88 innings. Although he is just 4-5 in 13 career starts vs. the Bucs, Hendricks likes pitching here at PNC Park. In six starts in the Steel City, Hendricks is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 32 innings. The Cubs are also 7-2 in Hendricks' last nine starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 vs. teams with a losing record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-19 | Cubs -110 v. Pirates | Top | 5-18 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you haven't heard of Adbert Alzolay, don't feel bad. The 24-year-old Venezuelan was signed by the Cubs as an amateur free agent in 2012 as an 18-year-old but he didn't appear in the Majors until this season. After a 3.06 ERA with 46 strikeouts and six walks in six starts covering 32 innings with their AAA affiliate in Iowa, the Cubs figured it was time to give Alzolay a shot at the Big Leagues. So far, so good, as the rookie RHP has a 2.08 ERA in two games (one start) for the Cubs and he will get another shot tonight in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. Alzolay's only start was in his last appearance against the Braves on June 25 in which he allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings at home. He's on the road for the first time but he will also be facing a Pirates team that plated just five runs in its three-game series with the Brewers over the weekend. The Pirates will go with RHP Trevor Williams and they are 1-5 in his last six starts vs. the Cubs. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 28-13 (+13 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers might not have the best rotation in the Majors, but they might just have the best "rotation depth" in the game. When you have a guy like RHP Kenta Maeda as your #4 starter, that says something. Maeda is on pace to have about 14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA and you can't ask for anything more from your lower starting pitching positions. This will be Maeda's 16th start of the season. And while most starting pitchers dread taking the mound at Colorado's Coors Field, Maeda in all likelihood doesn't mind it so much. In nine career games at Coors (six starts), Maeda is 5-1 with a very strong 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 36 innings. Those five victories represent that most that Maeda has had at any venue other than Dodger Stadium. Despite the Rockies' victory on Saturday, the Dodgers are still 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. The Dodgers are also 4-0 in Maeda's last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-30-19 | Nationals -303 v. Tigers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Detroit Tigers. It's not often that we lay this big of a price in a baseball game, but we'll do so this afternoon with Max Scherzer on the mound against a Tigers team which has lost 12 of its last 14 games. Moreover, Washington's won each of Scherzer's last five starts (0.97 ERA), while the Tigers have lost each of Jordan Zimmermann's last six starts (8.76 ERA). Finally, Detroit is 6-21 as a home underdog (minus 11 games on the money line), as well as an awful 49-145 (minus 34 games on the money line) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Nationals are an awesome 45-13 as a road favorite of -175 or more (plus 17 games on the money line). Take the Nationals. |
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06-30-19 | Indians -219 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Baltimore Orioles. So, now we know the only thing the Orioles needed in order to be successful this season. They just needed to have the Indians visit Camden Yards for all of their home games. In an historic couple of days, the O's put a pair of 13-0 drubbings on the Indians to lead up to this series finale. Will Baltimore make it three-in-a-row? That's another matter altogether. The O's haven't had a three-game winning streak since the first week of the season. And this afternoon they will have to try to do it against one of the best young starters in the American League. After winning 11 games in his rookie campaign in 2018, 24-year-old RH Shane Bieber is even better this season, going 6-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. And he threw his first career complete game shutout as well. Bieber's numbers are certainly worthy of an All-Star nod, which would be even sweeter with the game being played in Cleveland next month. Despite stumbling the last two days, the Tribe is still 13-6 in the last 19 meetings and they are 10-3 in Bieber's last 13 road starts. Take Cleveland. |
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06-30-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +110 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:10 am, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. If we learned one thing from the first-ever Major League game played in Europe, it's that runs across the plate are like raindrops in London. At the end of the first inning on Saturday, both starters had been knocked out and the game was already over the total with a 6-6 tally on the scoreboard. It continued from there and when the smoke had cleared, the Yankees had walked away with a crazy 17-13 victory. If you have Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez on your fantasy team, you might want to keep him on your bench today after Tanaka and Porcello each got tagged for six runs in less than an inning yesterday. But we'll take the experienced southpaw today against little-known lefty Stephen Tarpley who gets his first career start in game two of the London series. There's little to suggest that Tarpley (0-0 with a 6.48 ERA in 8 1/3 innings) will thrive here overseas against a very dangerous Boston lineup. And the Red Sox are 45-19 (+24 games on the money line) with Rodriguez on the hill over the last 3 seasons. And they're also 5-1 in E-Rod's last six starts, having won the last three by a combined score of 28-11. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks -140 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent Major League starter since 2011 than Zack Greinke. He's won every single year, and his ERA has been below 4.00 in all but one season. The 35-year-old RHP is having another one of those seasons as Greinke has gone 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 17 starts coming into tonight. More important for this evening is the fact that Greinke is pitching for the eighth time at Oracle (AT&T) Park. In seven previous starts here, Greinke has a remarkable 5-0 record with a 1.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 46 innings. The Giants will go with veteran LHP Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has struggled this season, going 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 14 starts heading into tonight. The Giants are also 3-7 in Pomeranz's last 10 starts on grass. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers -148 v. Rockies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -148 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The way things are going, 2019 may very well be the third straight season in which Dodgers' LH ace Clayton Kershaw fails to get 30 starts. Yet despite not pulling a full workload -- in terms of starts -- the 31-year-old continues to put up some of the best pitching numbers in the Majors. So far, in 13 starts this season, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 85 innings. Like many pitchers in the National League, Kershaw's ERA is elevated when he pitches at Coors Field (4.57). But he has had a lot of success here too, going 10-4 in 24 Denver starts covering 126 innings. And those 10 victories represent the second-most that Kershaw has had in any road venue (San Francisco - 13 wins). Perhaps more important than those 10 wins at Coors is the fact that the Dodgers have won six of Kershaw's last seven starts against the Rockies going back to April of 2017 and 27 of his last 33 vs. them. The Dodgers are also 41-10 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. NL West teams. Take L.A. |
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06-29-19 | Cubs +107 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 107 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has been awful this season in his six daytime starts, as his ERA is 4.59, and the Reds have lost five of those six games. The Reds have also struggled in day games, generally, over the last three seasons, as they're 63-94 (minus 21 games on the money line). And they're also a wallet-busting 40-65 (minus 17 games on the money line) vs. southpaws. None of this bodes well for Cincy this afternoon. Take the Cubbies as an underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +132 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. For the first time ever, Major League Baseball will take its product to Europe as the Red Sox and Yankees play a two-game series at London Stadium in England this weekend. Game 1 will feature two of the most experienced starters for their respective teams as right-handers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello go to the mound today. This season, Tanaka has been solid in his starts at Yankee Stadium, but is under water away from home. In his six road starts, the Japanese veteran is just 1-3 with a 3.89 ERA (vs. 4-2 and 2.84 in 10 starts in the Bronx. Even worse for New York is that it will play without one of its best players. Just eight days after he was activated from the Injured List, New York's OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton has gone back on the shelf with a knee injury so he won't be available this weekend. The Red Sox are 126-66 (+30 games on the money line) vs. righties, and 102-63 (+24 games on the money line) off a loss in their previous game. Take Boston. |
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06-28-19 | A's +138 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 138 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Anaheim Angels. The A's have won seven of their last 10, and will turn to the red-hot Michael Fiers tonight, in Anaheim. Fiers has a 2.18 ERA over his last four starts (all Oakland wins), and his teams are a superb 45-28 (+22 games on the money line) in his last 73 starts! Even better: Fiers has been a model of consistency over his last 10 starts, as he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts. And he's faced Anaheim twice this season, and once last year (as a member with Detroit), with his teams notching wins in all three of those games. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-28-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +196 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 196 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Without a doubt, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. He's 9-1 in his 15 starts, with a 1.27 ERA. And the Dodgers have won 11 of his 15 starts. But, given his history against the Rockies, it's hard for me to pass up taking the big home underdog tonight. Indeed, Ryu is 4-6 with a 4.61 ERA in his career vs. Colorado, including a 7.56 ERA in his four starts at Coors Field. And even though the Dodgers are 11-4 with Ryu on the hill, they're actually a losing 3-4 this season with Ryu on the hill ON THE ROAD. Finally, Colorado is 15-8 at Coors Field with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. Take the home underdog Rockies. |
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06-28-19 | Mariners v. Astros -230 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. With Dallas Keuchel not re-signing with the club after last season, the Houston Astros were desperately looking for a lefthander to fill his rotation spot -- being that all of their other projected starters (Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Peacock and potentially McCullers) are righties. Preferably they wanted someone with experience who wouldn't cost them a fortune. They found their man in 32-year-old Wade Wiley and in February signed him to a modest $4.5 Million contract for 2019. Miley has done exactly what the 'Stros had hoped for, as he's been a solid pitcher who has given them quality innings from the left side of the mound. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 starts and #17 will come against the team for which he pitched in the first half of 2016. He didn't find Safeco Park to his liking so it's a good thing that tonight's start is in Houston, where Miley has a sparkling 4-1 record and 1.91 ERA in seven starts this season. The Mariners are also 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a lefty starter. Take Houston. |
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06-28-19 | Twins -180 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -180 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. Twins ace Jose Berrios took a major step towards being considered one of the elite pitchers in the American League last season. The now-25-year-old won double-digit games for the second year in a row, while posting two complete games (he led the league) -- one of which was a shutout. And the Puerto Rican star made the All Star squad for the first time. Berrios isn't stopping with his 2018 performance however as this season has been even better so far. In 16 starts, Berrios is 8-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, so he's on track to put up the best numbers of his career. A start against Chicago could easily keep things rolling along. In 10 starts against the White Sox, Berrios is 8-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 66 innings. It certainly doesn't hurt his chances that he has the best line-up backing him up that he's had since he came into the league with the Twins in 2016. The Twins are also 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Take Minnesota. |
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06-28-19 | Braves +128 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. At this point, the last two years have to feel a bit like the movie "Groundhog Day" to Mets RHP Jacob deGrom. The reigning Cy Young winner's frustration over having his leads blown was well documented in 2018. So, deGrom probably figured that with an improved bullpen in 2019, he could entrust his relievers to not blow as many leads this season. But it's been more of the same so far for the 31-year-old ace. He left his last start once again with a lead (3-2) only to have Seth Lugo blow it as the Cubs went on to a 5-3 win. One starter who hasn't had this problem this season is the Braves' RHP Mike Soroka. The 21-year-old is making a strong early case for NL Rookie of the Year with an 8-1 record and 2.07 ERA over his first 13 starts and an All Star selection seems all but inevitable at this point. He's pitched better on the road (4-0, with a 1.05 ERA) than at home this season, but it's somewhat relative as he is still a solid 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his six starts in Atlanta. This game, of course, is in New York. And he won his only career start here at Citi Field, 3-2, as he gave up just one run over six innings. He also just beat the Mets two starts ago (12-3, in Atlanta), and has a career 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets (all Atlanta wins). Take Atlanta. |
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06-27-19 | Braves v. Cubs -105 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Atlanta Braves. Cubs RHP Tyler Chatwood has been mostly a starter in his eight seasons in the Majors (since 2011). During that time, 133 of Chatwood's 154 appearances were starts. But things have changed in Chicago and now Chatwood is almost exclusively a reliever. But that was before Cubs' starter Kyle Hendricks went on the IL with a right shoulder impairment. Now, it appears that Chatwood is being given another chance at starting in the Majors this season -- a good thing despite the fact that one of his mentors (Hendricks) is out of action with no definitive timetable for a return.  Chatwood is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 18 games (two starts) covering 39 innings for the Cubs this season, so hopefully he will be able to keep that going in this afternoon affair against the Braves. The Cubs are 7-1 in Chatwood's last eight starts overall, while the Braves are 1-4 in their last five road games vs. teams with a home winning % at least .600. Take the Cubs. |
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06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -175 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Seattle Mariners. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this 3-game series, so they'll look to bounce back this afternoon. Milwaukee likely will, given its strength as a home favorite. Indeed, it's 88-46, +21 games on the money line, as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Mike Leake has burned money as a road underdog in his career (32-49), including a woeful 1-6 this season.  Finally, the Brewers are a solid 19-10 (+8 games on the money line) in day games this year, while Seattle is 11-19 (minus 8 games on the money line) in the afternoon. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-27-19 | Pirates v. Astros -199 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -199 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Pittsburgh Pirates. After a breakout season in 2017, in which he went 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA with 21 of his 34 appearances being starts, it appeared that Brad Peacock might have a permanent job in the Astros' rotation. But Houston acquired Justin Verlander at the end of that season and then Gerrit Cole later that winter, so Peacock found himself back in a bullpen role last season. Now with Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel gone, Peacock is back in the rotation and he is making the most of it. Not as dominant as he was two seasons ago, Peacock still has a winning record (6-5) with a nice 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 16 games -- all but two of which are starts. He only has one previous appearance against the Pirates and that was in a relief role, so this will be his first stat vs. them. And it comes at home where Peacock has done his best work this season, going 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in eight starts, vs. 3-3 and 3.93 in eight appearances (six starts) on the road. Finally, the Astros are 21-9 in their last 30 inter-league games vs. losing teams. Take Houston. |
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06-26-19 | Rays +100 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota. We've played on the Rays' Charlie Morton quite a few times this season, and we'll do so once again this evening. Certainly, Morton hasn't disappointed much this year, as he's 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. And on the road, those numbers get even better, as his ERA is 1.57. Morton's also been perfect in his career vs. Minnesota. He's made three starts, and each of those were won by his teams, including a 14-3 victory less than a month ago. The Rays are a super 12-8 this season on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125, while Minny is 6-12 at home with Jake Odorizzi on the hill when priced from +125 to -125. Take Tampa Bay. |
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06-26-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -190 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Seattle Mariners. If you haven't heard of Adrian Houser, don't feel bad. Houser is a nondescript former 2nd round draft pick of the Astros who has found his way onto the Brewers roster almost exclusively as a reliever. But with Corbin Burnes sent to the minors, Jimmy Nelson being demoted to the bullpen, and Chase Anderson and Freddy Peralta struggling mightily, it appears now there's an opportunity for Houser to get his third start of the season. The 26 year-old RH has been very effective in a bullpen role up to this point.  In 16 appearances (including two starts), Houser is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Those are very solid numbers and you can't blame the Crew for giving Houser his third start of the season tonight based on that. The Mariners are 2-6 in their last eight inter-league road games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. And they're just 8-19 in their last 27 inter-league contests. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-19 | Braves v. Cubs -118 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Atlanta Braves. The Cubs have been super this season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, as they're 28-15. And when priced as a home favorite of -150 or less, those numbers improve to 17-5 (+11 games on the money line). Tonight, they'll hand the ball to RHP Yu Darvish. And his teams are 39-27 (+6 games on the money line) in his career when favored -150 or less. Meanwhile, the Braves are an awful 3-10 their last 13 games as an underdog. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-19 | A's v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland Athletics. Cardinals veteran RHP Adam Wainwright is having almost the same type of campaign he has had for the last three seasons. Clearly, the 37-year-old is in the twilight of his career, but that doesn't mean he can't still contribute to the Cards' success the rest of the way. Wainwright is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 14 starts covering 76 innings coming into tonight. The veteran starter has thrived in his career in inter-league starts, going 14-9 with a 3.77 ERA in 35 games (29 starts) vs. teams from the American League. And those numbers get much better when you look at his performance against Oakland. In two starts vs. the A's, Wainwright is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings (only one run allowed). Finally, the A's are 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games while the Cards are 44-19 in Wainwright's last 63 home starts. Take St. Louis. |
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06-26-19 | Rockies -135 v. Giants | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. Jeff Samardzija is struggling again for the Giants. They've won just two of his last eight starts. And his ERA over his last three outings is an ugly 6.61. This afternoon, the Giants have been installed as a home underdog vs. German Marquez and the Rockies. San Francisco is a wallet-busting 43-74 its last 117 when priced as an underdog of +125 to +175. And Jeff Samardzija's teams are a similarly poor 42-73 (minus 32 games on the money line) in his career when priced from +125 to +175. In contrast, the Rockies are 7-0 this season (and 20-8 in Marquez' career) when priced from -125 to -175 with him on the hill. Take the Rockies. |
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06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians -210 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. It's been a bit of a rough first half for Indians' RHP Trevor Bauer. After a breakout season in 2018 in which he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA in 28 games (27 starts), Bauer has struggled a bit in 2019. The 28-year-old RHP is 5-6 with a 3.69 ERA in 17 starts. His walk rate is up to 3.7 (from 2.9), while his strikeout rate is down to 9.8 (from 11.3). But if there's anything that can get Bauer back on the winning track, it just might be a start against the Royals. In 14 games vs. KC (13 starts), Bauer has a 3.01 ERA in just under 81 innings. Bauer apparently also prefers pitching in the afternoon as his career ERA in the daytime is a full run lower than it is under the lights (3.25 vs. 4.25). And this season, Bauer loves his afternoon starts even more as he has a 1.82 ERA in five daytime starts (vs. 4.52 in 12 nighttime outings). The Royals will go with RHP Jakob Junis, and they are 2-5 in Junis' last seven starts vs. teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Indians are 42-19 in Bauer's last 61 starts on regular rest. Take the Tribe. |
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06-25-19 | Dodgers -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rich Hill just landed on the Injured List with a strained flexor tendon in his left forearm. Thus, Ross Stripling will be called on today to toe the rubber for the NL West-leading Dodgers. And he's been super this season, whether as a starter (six games) or reliever (14 appearances). Stripling's 3-0, with a 3.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts in just 47 2/3 innings. And his ERA in his last three starts (all Dodger Wins) was 1.56. L.A. comes into this game off a rare loss, 8-4, to the D-Backs. But I love Dave Roberts' crew to bounce back tonight against the southpaw, Robbie Ray. Los Angeles is 17-9 this season vs. lefties (and 98-57 the past three seasons). Even better: with Ray on the mound, his teams (Detroit & Arizona) are an awful 25-36 (minus 21 games on the money line) at home in his career. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -133 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland A's. It was an emotional weekend in St. Louis with Albert Pujols visiting Busch Stadium for perhaps the final time in his career. The Cards took two of three from the Angels, and now another AL West division team comes into town, as the Oakland A's visit for the first time in almost three years. RHP Jack Flaherty will get his 16th start for the home team tonight. And although Flaherty has won just four times this season, and his ERA is almost a run higher than it was in 2018, he has lowered his walk rate, and kept his strikeout rate above one per inning. So signs point to a rebound for the 23-year-old. Flaherty has a respectable 3.90 ERA in five inter-league starts, his last of which was a quality outing in Texas against the Rangers on May 19 (2 ER on 4 H in 6 IP). The A's will go with RHP Chris Bassitt tonight. And that bodes well for St. Louis, as it's 8-2 in its last 10 inter-league games vs. a RHP starter. And it's also 23-7 as a favorite of -150 or less this year. Take St. Louis. |
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06-25-19 | Rays v. Twins +107 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 107 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays. All the fans in Tampa want to know.....What's wrong with Blake Snell? Last year's Cy Young winner (21 wins and a 1.89 ERA) is just 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA. And he has allowed 37 ER already, just one shy of his number for all of 2018. His last start lasted just 1/3 of an inning, which led many to believe that there was a physical problem. But the Rays and Snell deny that anything's wrong with his health, and have asserted that his problems are simply a matter of bad luck more than anything. Regardless, going on the road to face the team with the best record in the AL will be a tough way to break out of a slump. And that's especially true when you consider that one of his worst starts last season was his only previous one here at Target Field (3 ER on 5 H in 3 IP on July 12). As surprisingly bad as Snell's season has been, that's how surprisingly good Twins' RHP Kyle Gibson's has been. Gibson is 7-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 14 starts, and his K rate of 9.0 and BB rate of 2.5 are both career-best numbers. Minnesota is also 12-5 in Gibson's last 17 starts. Take the Twins. |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -122 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. A new poster boy for hard-luck pitchers this season is the Phillies RH Zach Eflin. Eflin has some very impressive numbers: a 2.83 ERA in 14 starts to go with a 1.16 WHIP and a league-leading two complete games -- one of those a shutout. But despite all of this, Eflin is just 6-7 so far. That will change eventually and all Eflin needs to do is keep his cool and keep pitching like he has been and the wins will come. The good news for tonight's game against the Mets is that four of Eflin's six wins have come here at home where he is 4-2 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA in six starts in 2019. One of those two complete games also came here -- a 5-1 victory over the Marlins back on April 28. This will be Eflin's first home start this season against New York, but last season he went 2-0 against the Mets with 4-0 and 9-6 victories on September 19 and August 16. The Mets are an awful 32-56 (minus 18 games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or less, and 13-26 as an underdog with Steven Matz on the mound. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-23-19 | Mets v. Cubs +105 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. It's no surprise that Jacob deGrom has regressed this season after winning his first Cy Young in 2018. Of course, it would have been hard to imagine that the 31-year-old RHP would have improved on last year's 1.70 ERA. So, his 3.26 number through his first 15 starts is to be expected. And it's also much more in line with his career average. But, just like last season, deGrom has not translated his solid ERA into wins. In 2019, he is 4-6 in his 15 outings, and the Mets are an awful 3-8 (minus 11 games on the money line) when he's been favored.  One place that's given him fits in his career is Wrigley Field, where today's game is being held. In three starts here, deGrom is 0-1 with 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 18 innings. But his mound opponent, Cole Hamels, absolutely loves it here on the North Side. In seven 2019 starts at Wrigley, Hamels is 2-0 with a sparkling 2.38 ERA -- a number that is almost a full run lower than his ERA on the road. Even better: in his last six starts vs. the Mets, Hamels has allowed a total of just four ER in 37 IP, and has never allowed more than one earned run in a game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-23-19 | Astros -122 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Those predicting the inevitable regression for future Hall-of-Fame ace Justin Verlander will likely have to wait at least until next season. With almost half of the 2019 campaign complete, the 36-year-old RHP is showing no signs of slowing down. His days of throwing 240 innings in a season may be over, but Verlander is still a very dangerous strikeout artist. And he should be right in the mix for the AL Cy Young yet again this season. Verlander has been tough both at home and on the road this season, with six of his nine victories coming away from Minute Maid Park. One starter who hasn't enjoyed home cooking this season is the Yankees' LHP JA Happ. Happ is a solid 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA in seven road starts in 2019, but he is just 4-5 with an ugly 5.13 number here at Yankee Stadium. And most of those have been against teams without nearly the talent in the lineup as the Astros. Also, in his last six starts vs. the Yanks (including one as a Detroit Tiger), Verlander has allowed just six ER in 46 1/3 innings. (His teams went 5-1 in those.) Meanwhile, the Astros are 34-11 their last 45 vs. lefties, while the Yankees are a poor 24-38 (minus nine games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or less. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The Astros are currently riding a season-high six-game losing streak. But we'll back the Astros tonight behind their LHP Wade Miley. Miley comes into this game with a solid 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. And the Yankees are just 9-9 this season vs. southpaws (minus 4 games on the money line), compared to 39-18 vs. righties (+12 games on the money line). Even better: the Astros have won six of Masahiro Tanaka's nine starts vs. them, including a 4-3 victory earlier this season. And Tanaka's career ERA of 7.36 in the regular season vs. Houston is his worst such number against any of the 25 clubs he has faced. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Padres -119 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Pittsburgh. After starting out with six wins in Chris Paddack's first seven starts, the Padres have won just one of the rookie's last five outings. But I look for San Diego to get back into the win column behind its rookie this afternoon. And it won't hurt to face Chris Archer, who is struggling this season for Pittsburgh. Archer's ERA is just south of 6 runs per game (5.85), and the Pirates have won just four of his 12 starts. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -180 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -180 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. There's no way to sugar coat it -- Vince Velasquez is in a major funk right now. In his fourth season in Philadelphia, the 27-year-old RHP is quickly wearing out his welcome with the Phillies. In 17 games, including seven starts, Velasquez is 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. And he is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in his last three starts covering just 10 innings. But if there's anything that can get a pitcher out of his funk it's a start against the Marlins. And that applies even more to Velasquez. In 11 career starts vs. Miami, the veteran is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 57 innings. Those four victories represent the most that Velasquez has against any team he has faced. The Marlins will go with RHP Elieser Hernandez. After a rookie season in which he went 2-7 with a 5.21 ERA, Hernandez has improved on the ERA this season -- 3.95 -- but is 0-2 in his three games (two starts) so far. Miami is also 0-7 in his last seven starts going back to last May 21. Take the Phillies. |
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06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -133 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. It's been a strange season so far for Cubs LHP Jose Quintana. On the one hand, the 30-year-old has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 14 starts. But on the other hand, the Cubs have won just once in Quintana's last eight starts. The veteran from Colombia will try to break that unlucky streak this afternoon against the Mets. The good news is that in three career starts vs. the Mets, Quintana is 2-1 with a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 20 innings. He will try to register his first victory in over a month today at home. And that is another key for Quintana as he is 3-3 with a very nice 2.98 ERA in seven starts here at Wrigley vs. 1-3 and 4.93 in eight appearances (seven starts) on the road this season. Despite the Mets' victory on Friday, they are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Cubs. Take Chicago. |
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06-21-19 | Angels -106 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over St. Louis. Michael Wacha will be making his 12th start of the season, and it's been an exceptionally inconsistent season for the veteran. In five of his starts, he's pitched well. But in those other six, he's been awful. And he's been especially poor here, at home, where his ERA is 8.23. And he's never performed well in Interleague play in front of his home faithful, as the Cards are 2-8 (minus 12 games on the money line) in his 10 starts, including an 8-2 loss to the Royals this season. Griffin Canning has been largely effective this season, as he has a 3.93 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP. And his strikeouts:walks ratio is great at 5.4 (54 strikeouts; 10 walks). Take the Angels. |
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06-21-19 | Twins -158 v. Royals | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Kansas City. The Twins have rolled out to 48-26 record -- the best in the American League -- in part because they've avoided long losing streaks. Indeed, their longest losing streak this season is just two games, which they've done six times (including their current losing streak coming into tonight's game). Thus, the Twins are a perfect 5-0 this season off back to back losses (and 19-7 (+12 games on the money line) off any loss this season). And they're 14-4 on the road vs. losing teams. Take Minnesota. |
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06-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -129 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Brewers' RHP Chase Anderson is quietly putting up some very good numbers as a replacement starter this season. With Gio Gonzalez hitting the IL with a "dead arm", Anderson is getting an opportunity to start for the Brewers and he is making the most of it. In 13 games (eight starts), Anderson is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 49 strikeouts in just under 47 innings and the Crew is 5-3 in his eight starts. The Brewers are 3-1 in Anderson's last four starts vs. the Reds going back to last May. Reds RHP Sonny Gray has a 3.77 ERA in his 14 starts, but he is just 3-5 on the season and his team is 7-7 in his starts so far. The Reds won on Thursday night, 7-1, but they are still just 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Brewers overall and 7-14 in the last 21 at Miller Park. The Brewers are 8-3 in Anderson's last 11 home starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |
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06-21-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -219 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -219 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. Aaron Nola came very close to winning the NL Cy Young award last season with a 17-6 record and 2.37 ERA in 33 starts with this Phillies team. He finished third in the voting thanks to the incredible campaigns that Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer had and now Nola may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder. So far, in 15 starts in 2019, Nola is picking it up where he left off in 2018 with a 6-1 record even though his 4.89 ERA is much higher than last season's number. But one of the things about Nola this season is how much he prefers pitching at his home ballpark. In nine starts at Citizens Bank, Nola is 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA, while in six starts away from Philadelphia, he is 3-1 with a 7.28 number in just under 30 innings. Tonight's start is at home and it's also against a Marlins team that is just 26-46 on the season. The Phillies are 17-5 in Nola's last 22 starts vs. teams with a losing record and they are 25-9 in Nola's last 34 home starts. Take Philadelphia. |
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06-21-19 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over New York. Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to Brad Peacock, while the Yankees will start LHP James Paxton. Houston has been terrific on the road vs. lefties, as it's 34-10 (+21 games on the money line). And it's 25-11 in Peacock's last 36 starts. Meanwhile, Paxton is still working into form following his return from the Injured List. In his four starts since his return, he's given up 11 earned runs in 17 1-3 innings (5.71 ERA). Take the Astros as a big underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Rays -109 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland Athletics. Last season, Charlie Morton went 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 30 starts with the Astros and garnered his first-ever All-Star team selection. Now in Tampa, Morton is picking things up where he left off last October, going 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 15 starts. Barring something strange happening, Morton should find himself right back on the AL Roster when it's time for the mid-Summer classic in a few weeks. He'll get start number 16 tonight in Oakland. The A's are fresh off of a three-game sweep here, but it's safe to say that they will find the Astros to be a tougher assignment than the 21-53 Orioles. With a 9-2 record and 2.85 ERA in his 14 starts, there's no doubt that Frankie Montas has been a huge surprise for the A's this season. But his starts since the beginning of May have come against the Pirates, Indians (twice), Tigers, Angels (twice), Rangers and Mariners. The Rays represent a big step up tonight. Finally, Tampa is 17-6 in its last 23 vs. AL West teams, and 7-1 in Morton's last eight road starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Phillies +102 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Phillies are mired in a 3-game losing streak after dropping the first two games of this 3-game series. But Philadelphia has generally been solid when playing with double-revenge the past two seasons, as it's 31-19 (+13 games on the money line). And it has a nice advantage on the mound tonight. Nick Pivetta was expected to have a breakout season, but he got off to a rough start. He was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley back in April after his first four outings where he had an 8.35 ERA and allowed opposing batters to hit .383. However, since his call-up in late May, Pivetta has been the pitcher most were expecting this season. In four starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA. In contrast, his mound opponent, Erick Fedde, has been in poor form, with a 5.62 ERA over his last three outings. And Fedde's found little success at home in his career, as the Nationals are 1-9 in his 10 home starts. The Nationals are also a money-burning 4-8 (minus nine games on the money line) off back-to-back wins this season, while the Phillies are 8-5 off back-to-back losses. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -163 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -163 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. When it comes to D-Backs LHP Robbie Ray, there's no doubt the raw talent is there. After all, the 26-year-old has one of the highest strikeout rates in the Majors. And at any given time, he can make the best hitters look foolish. But Ray is still a work in progress, with a higher-than-average walk rate that sometimes gets him into trouble. This month, however, Ray has made some big strides in cutting down on the free passes. In his three June starts, Ray has struck out 24 hitters while walking just three (one batter in each start). He looks to keep it going this afternoon in his 16th start -- his third of the season against the Rockies. With the recent injury to starter Tyler Anderson, the door is now open for Colorado RHP Jeff Hoffman, who will get his seventh start of the season today. The only problem is that Hoffman is in no way a full-time starter, having posted a 1-3 record and 7.04 ERA in just under 31 innings. Finally, the Rockies are a wallet-busting 345-588 (-92 games on the money line) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175, including 0-5 with Hoffman on the mound. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals -165 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Miami. Daniel Ponce De Leon will get the start tonight for St. Louis. And all he's done this season in his two starts is give up a single run in both outings (2.00 ERA; 1.22 WHIP). He'll match up against Miami RHP Trevor Richards, who was bombed last Friday by the Pirates. Pittsburgh put 11 men on base in Richards' five innings en route to an 11-0 shutout victory. Richards also hasn't had any success in his career vs. the Cardinals, as he's 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Miami's an awful 21-56 (minus 20 games on the money line) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +170. Take the Cards. |
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06-19-19 | White Sox v. Cubs -143 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. This is a great interleague match-up between cross-town rivals tonight. The White Sox will turn to their ace -- and one of baseball's hottest pitchers -- Lucas Giolito (2.22 ERA; 0.95 WHIP), while the Cubbies will hand the ball to their All-Star (and last year's NL Wins leader), Jon Lester. We'll take the Cubs in this home game tonight, as Lester has overwhelmingly led his teams to wins when they've been installed as a favorite (5-0 this year; 42-17 (+16 games on the money line) his last 59) or when he's faced losing teams (112-43 (+46 games on the money line). Lester's teams are also 6-1 in his last seven meetings vs. the White Sox, including an 8-3 win last September over Giolito (who gave up 5 runs in 6 2-3 innings). Take the Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-19 | Mets v. Braves -150 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. After posting a 4.27 team ERA in the first month of the season, the Braves went in search of some pitching help. They found it a few weeks ago when they signed free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is scheduled to make his Atlanta debut this weekend but now that the Braves staff is doing much better (a 3.76 ERA in June) the question is how badly do they really need him? LHP Max Fried continues to impress with a 7-3 record and 4.11 ERA over 16 appearances (14 starts) and tonight he goes at home against the Mets for his first start against them this season. Fried has had a bit of a bizarre month of June so far, posting a 7.98 ERA in three starts, however the Braves are 3-0 in those. And in his last seven starts, the Braves are 6-1. LHP Steven Matz goes for the Mets. He has also had some struggles of late, but unlike Fried, the Mets are just 3-4 in his last seven starts, going back to the beginning of May. Finally, Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 home games while the Mets are 7-21 in their last 28 on the road. Take the Braves. |
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06-19-19 | Brewers -105 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. It's early, but NL comeback player honors just might go to Brewers RHP Zach Davies. After winning 17 games in 2017 with a 3.90 ERA in a league-leading 33 starts, Davies took a major step backwards last season. Davies managed just two wins (seven losses) in a 2018 campaign in which he logged just 13 starts due to a bad rotator cuff. But 2019 has brought a new opportunity for Davies and he's making the most of it. The now healthy starter is having his best season ever, going 7-1 with a sparkling 2.60 ERA in 14 starts covering just under 80 innings. This will be his fifth career start against the Padres and match-ups don't get much better than this one. In four previous starts. vs. San Diego, Davies is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 25 innings (the Crew is 4-0 in those starts). Milwaukee is also 16-7 (+10 games on the money line) in Davies' last 23 daytime starts. Take the Brew Crew. |
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06-19-19 | Rays -121 v. Yankees | Top | 1-12 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees. This is an interesting pitching match-up because it features one of the best Southpaws of the past 20 years vs. potentially one of the best to come in the next decade. The Yankees' CC Sabathia is a sure future Hall of Fame player, as the 38 year-old has logged 249 victories and over 3500 strikeouts in an incredible career that includes a Cy Young award, an ALCS MVP, and a World Series ring in 2009. But 2019 has been a struggle for Sabathia. The veteran has been stuck on those 249 victories since May 22 and in the month of June, he has gone 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three starts covering 15 2/3 innings. Last season's Cy Young winner, LHP Blake Snell will go for the Rays and the 26 year-old just faced the Yanks in the Bronx a month ago and he threw one of his gems, allowing just one run on six hits in six innings with nine strikeouts and one walk in a 2-1 Rays victory. The Rays are 25-14 in Snell's last 39 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Take Tampa Bay. |
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06-19-19 | Phillies +165 v. Nationals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. Zach Eflin will get the start for the Phillies this afternoon, while Patrick Corbin will toe the rubber for Washington. Eflin has been solid all season, as he's made 13 starts, and has a 2.81 ERA. He's also 3-1 in his five career starts vs. Washington, with a solid 3.51 ERA (including a perfect 2-0 this season). Meanwhile, Corbin is in very poor form. Over his last three starts, he's given up 20 runs (16 earned) in 12 2-3 innings (11.37 ERA) and, not surprisingly, the Nationals dropped all three games. It's true that the Nationals erupted for 15 runs (tying their season-high) vs. Arizona in their last game, while the Phillies gave up 15 runs (to the Braves) in their last game. Unfortunately, the Nationals are a poor 1-7 at home (minus 10 games on the money line) after scoring 15+ runs, while the Phillies are an awesome 10-1 after allowing more than 8 runs. Take Philadelphia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-19 | Brewers -154 v. Padres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. If you were looking at the Brewers in the pre-season and thought they had a pretty good team, but wondered who was going to step up in the rotation, you were not alone. But it seems that question has been answered. 26-year-old RHP Brandon Woodruff has emerged as the ace of the Milwaukee staff. Woodruff is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. And, barring a meltdown over the next three weeks, he should be named to his first All-Star squad. Woodruff will toe the rubber for the 15th time tonight, and it will be his first-ever start against the Padres. Perhaps most impressive about his season so far is the fact that the Brewers are 12-2 in his starts this year and 17-5 in his last 22 trips to the mound going back to last season. Despite the loss on Monday, the Brewers are still 9-4 in the last 13 meetings with the Padres (who have actually performed better on the road this season (17-17) than they have at home (19-20)). Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-19 | Indians -128 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Texas Rangers. With the unpredictable state of the Indians' rotation, it seems like there are always opportunities for up-and-coming pitchers. Corey Kluber is out until sometime in August, Carlos Carrasco has some sort of blood condition that isn't being discussed publicly (which is a very bad sign), and Danny Salazar has been injured since the 2017 season. Enter young (24-year-old) Zach Plesac, who is the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan. The rookie hurler has started four games for the Tribe and has a very nice 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP so far. The Rangers lineup is certainly formidable, but Plesac would seem to be up to the task, having already faced the lineups of the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Reds in his four outings. With all of the challenges the Indians' pitching staff has faced this season, you would expect their numbers to suffer, but right now they are amazingly third in the AL with a 3.87 team ERA. Finally, Cleveland is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with Texas. Take the Tribe. |
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06-18-19 | Astros -161 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds surprised the Astros on Monday night and took a well-deserved 3-2 victory from arguably the best team in the Majors. But the Reds only have one true ace -- Luis Castillo -- and he pitched last night. So, now they have to play two more against Houston without his services. That leaves guys like tonight's starter -- RHP Anthony DeSclafani -- to carry the load. And that's a huge drop-off from Castillo, who improved his numbers to 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA with Monday's victory. To make matters worse for Cincy, they have to face RHP Justin Verlander this evening. The 36-year-old just seems to get better with age, as the 'Stros ace is 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 15 starts heading into tonight. That puts him on track to have an even better season than he did in 2018 when he went 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA, and finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young vote. Lastly, Verlander is an inter-league monster, with a 34-7 record and a 2.76 ERA in 49 career starts vs. teams from the National League. Take the Astros. |
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06-17-19 | Red Sox v. Twins -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Boston Red Sox. As many expected, the Red Sox swept the Orioles over the weekend in Baltimore. Now they go from facing one of the worst teams in the Majors to perhaps the best in the American League. Admittedly, there are quite a few people out there who aren't yet buying the Twins as being a legitimate contender alongside the Astros and Yankees. But the numbers don't lie and right now they have the best W/L ledger in the League as well as the top run differential (+116). So this series could go a long way toward convincing the nay-sayers out there. RHP Jose Berrios will get his 15th start tonight and, with an 8-2 record and 3.01 ERA, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican is making a strong case for his second straight All-Star appearance and perhaps his first Cy Young. Berrios is 23-11 (.676) with a 3.53 ERA in 40 career games (39 starts) at Target Field. He is also 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts here this season. Finally, the Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. teams with a winning record while the Sox are 6-13 in their last 19 vs. winning foes. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +120 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 120 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. Once considered one of the top pitching prospects in the NL, RHP Lance Lynn has been somewhat irrelevant over the past two seasons after missing the entire 2016 campaign with an injury. He was extremely average in 2018 (10-10 with a 4.77 ERA) splitting his time between the Twins and Yankees. But he has found new life in Texas and is having a very strong rebound this season. The ERA is a little on the high side at 4.40, but Lynn has a nice 7-4 record in his 14 starts coming into tonight. He seems to have really taken to his new home, going 4-0 in six starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington. He'll try to make that 5-0 tonight against the inconsistent Indians and RHP Mike Clevinger. Clevinger is coming back from a long absence for a strained upper back suffered shortly after the season started (he has just two starts and 12 innings to his credit so far). For that reason, he will likely be on a strict pitch count and probably won't go far at all in the game. The Tribe is 4-9 in Clevinger's last 13 road starts, and don't merit being the road favorite in this game. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-16-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -184 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. Yesterday, we played on the Chicago Cubs +181, as I rated the pitching relatively equal, and calculated the price to be a huge overlay. Not so with tonight's game, given the pitching match-up. Interestingly, the preseason odds for the National League Cy Young award would have had names like Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Jacob deGrom as the favorites. But the starter for the Dodgers tonight -- LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu -- would've been so far down on the list that he would have been considered part of the "field." But two-and-a-half months can change a lot of things and right now Ryu -- 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA in 13 starts -- is the clear favorite for top pitching honors and a mortal lock to make his first All Star team. Tonight, Ryu gets to showcase his talent on National TV on the Sunday night ESPN prime time game against the Cubs and LHP Jose Quintana. As solid as Ryu has been, that's how inconsistently Quintana has pitched. In 14 games -- 13 starts -- the 30 year-old southpaw is 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Over his last four starts, Quintana has allowed 13 earned runs on 27 hits in just 21 1/3 innings. And more importantly, the Cubs are 0-4 in those. The Cubs are also 3-9 in Quintana's last 12 road starts, and 4-14 as a road underdog this season, while LA is 23-5 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season, and 20-6 as a home favorite with Ryu on the hill the last 3 seasons. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-16-19 | Brewers -140 v. Giants | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. The Giants upset the Brewers on Saturday by an 8-7 score and now they go for an unlikely sweep this afternoon in Game 3 of the series. But the Brewers' batsmen and RHP Chase Anderson may have something to say about that. Anderson is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA in 12 games, including seven starts. But with the way Milwaukee's rotation has performed lately, including Jimmy Nelson yesterday, Anderson's part time starting job may become permanent. More relevant to today's game is the fact that in his last three starts against the Giants -- all with the Brewers -- Anderson has allowed just three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings, with 12 strikeouts and two walks. Not surprisingly, the Crew is 3-0 in those three. Giants' RHP Jeff Samardzija has had just two winning campaigns in his 11+ MLB seasons and, with the way things are going in 2019, he isn't likely to add to that number (3-5 in his first 13 starts). He's also won just once in six starts here at Oracle Park. The Crew is 9-3 in its last 12 road games vs. a RHP starter, and it's 100-56 (+32 games on the money line) priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Giants are 95-145 (minus 17 games on the money line) as an underdog. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-15-19 | Cubs +185 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 185 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the surface, this looks like a mis-match with the red-hot young RHP ace Walker Buehler going to the mound at home against the Cubs and the struggling Yu Darvish. But Buehler -- who came into the league as a full-time starter last season -- has never faced the Cubs at home before and he has a rather pedestrian 4.13 ERA in five home starts this season (vs. 2.87 in eight outings on the road). In his only other career start vs. the Cubs, Buehler allowed three runs in just 5 2/3 innings this past April 24th in a 7-6 loss. The Cubs will go with RHP Yu Darvish. And although the Japanese import has struggled through much of the first half, he has pitched well lately, with a 3.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cubs are 4-1 in Darvish's last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. And they have great value as a big underdog at this inflated price. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies -167 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. After becoming the Rockies' workhorse in 2018 with 33 starts and 196 innings, RHP German Marquez is at it again this season. Marquez leads the NL with 15 starts and 96 2/3 innings pitched. His 4.19 ERA is higher than the number he put up in his breakout 2018 season (3.77), but Marquez's 6-3 record puts him on a pace to at least match the 14 victories his logged last season. Start number 16 comes tonight at home against the Padres. It was one of the craziest games of the season here last night, with the Padres tying the game with six runs in the 9th inning, and prevailing in 12 innings by a 16-12 tally. Unfortunately, for Padres LHP starter Eric Lauer, he has to face a team tonight that has given him all kinds of fits. In three career starts vs. Colorado, Lauer is 0-2 and he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in 11 innings for an ERA of 11.45. Despite their extra-innings win on Friday night, the Padres are still just 2-7 in the last nine meetings with the Rockies. Take Colorado. |
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06-15-19 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After a career season in which he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting, Aaron Nola has taken a step back in terms of his ERA. The Phillies ace has seen that number rise more than two runs, going from 2.37 to 4.58 over his first 14 starts. But we've also seen Nola put up a W/L ledger of 6-1, which puts him on a pace to at least match the 17 wins he had in 2018. The ERA could definitely get some relief tonight as in four previous starts at SunTrust Park, Nola has a 2.13 ERA in just over 25 innings. And in his last two starts against Atlanta, Nola is 2-0, allowing just one earned run on four hits in 13 innings with 16 strikeouts. After his last start on April 13 in which he allowed four runs on five hits in just 1 1/3 innings, Braves' LHP Sean Newcomb was demoted to the bullpen. He's pitched very well in that role and now those relief numbers have earned him another starting shot. But facing the Phillies is a tall task. And the Braves are a woeful 5-11 in Newcomb's last 16 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Philadelphia. |
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06-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -270 | Top | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite several of their players either being hurt of just not performing to their normal level, the Houston Astros are still one of the best teams in the league and are running away with their division once again. One of those players who has under-achieved so far is RHP Gerrit Cole. After going 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 32 starts last season, Cole is just 5-5 and 3.72 in his first 14 in 2019. But the hard-throwing 28 year-old should round into form like he almost always does and it's scary to think how good the 'Stros will be if he gets back to his All-Star level of 2018 anytime soon. And Cole has been coming on strong lately, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts covering 19 innings (while the 'Stros are 3-0 in those). Houston is 9-5 in his 14 starts, another indication of the quality of this team from top to bottom. For technical support, consider that the Astros are a perfect 8-0 this season following an off-day, and are 44-19 (+10 games on the money line) this season as a favorite. Likewise, Cole's teams have gone 59-22 (+17 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150+ with him on the hill. Finally, this has been a one-sided series lately, especially here at Minute Maid as the Jays are just 7-17 in the last 24 meetings in Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-14-19 | Yankees +102 v. White Sox | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. Over his last seven starts -- dating back to May 7 -- White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito has been arguably the best pitcher in the game, allowing just five runs over 51 1/3 innings during that span. But before we hand Giolito the AL Cy Young, let's consider who he's faced in those seven outings. Six of the seven have come against the Indians (basically a .500 team), Blue Jays (24-43) and Royals (arguably the worst team in baseball) -- twice each. And although the seventh was a very good start against the Astros, the fact is that the 24-year-old hasn't exactly been facing the cream of the AL crop in the last month. A start against the Yankees should help to prove if the hype is for real. Veteran LHP CC Sabathia gets the start for the visitors, and he is 19-7 in 28 career starts vs. the Sox. But even more important for tonight, Sabathia is 10-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 19 starts here at US Cellular Field. Finally, New York is 5-0 in Sabathia's last five starts vs. losing teams and 11-4 in his last 15 immediately following a team loss in its previous game. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-13-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. Clayton Kershaw may not be back to the level he was before his numerous injuries over the past two seasons, when he was considered one of the best pitchers in the game, but he appears to be getting close. Kershaw is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 starts for the Dodgers. His arm strength seems to be gaining with each start as he's gone seven innings in each of his two June outings, throwing 95 pitches in each. His control has been outstanding as well, as Kershaw has allowed no more than one walk in each of his last eight starts (a total of just six free passes over that span). Start number 11 will come against a non-division opponent with which Kershaw is pretty familiar. In 10 lifetime starts vs. the Cubs, the veteran southpaw is 5-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 63 innings. Perhaps most important is the fact that the Dodgers are 9-1 (+7 games on the money line) in Kershaw's starts this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 2-7 in the last nine meetings at Dodger Stadium. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-13-19 | Padres v. Rockies -136 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers may be running away with the NL West at this point (and the National League for that matter) but the race for second place and a likely Wild Card spot is a good one. As of Wednesday, the Rockies, D-Backs, and Padres are all within 2 1/2 games of each other with the Rox currently holding down 2nd place in the division. They've been dynamite here at home this season, going 20-12 at Coors Field coming into this important four-game weekend series against San Diego. RHP Jon Gray is scheduled to go to the mound for the 14th time this season. And although it's been a bit of an inconsistent first half for him (5-5 with a 4.27 ERA), Gray is still effective and can strike out just about any hitter in the game. And there's nobody he's likes facing more than the Padres -- according to the numbers. In 17 career starts vs. San Diego, Gray is 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just over 103 innings. The Rockies are 11-2 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 13 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Take Colorado. |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals +126 v. Mets | Top | 5-4 | Win | 126 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. There was some speculation during the 2018 season that, despite his spectacular numbers in ERA, WHIP, and K:BB ratio, if Jacob deGrom didn't at least get to 10 wins, he wouldn't win the Cy Young. He barely got there, posting a 10-9 ledger, and the 30-year-old RHP took home the honors for the first time in his career. 2019 hasn't been as kind to deGrom, who is just 3-6 with a much more normal looking 3.45 ERA over his first 13 starts. And to make matters worse, deGrom has really struggled at home this season, going 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts in Queens. He'll try again tonight against a very good Cardinals team and RHP Jack Flaherty. The young strikeout artist got off to a very rough start in 2019, posting a 5.25 ERA over his first five starts. But he has settled down since then, and reduced that number by more than a run (4.08) and also now has a winning record at 4-3. Flaherty has never faced the Mets before, but chances are he will thrive in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Take the Cardinals. |
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06-12-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox -146 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Texas Rangers. After a very rough start to the season, Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello settled down in May and finished the month strong, picking up his fourth victory and reducing his ERA to 4.41. June has been a bit of a struggle so far, but on the other hand, Porcello has had to face the Yankees and Rays in his two starts. Start number three of the month will be his 14th of the season and will come at home against the Rangers and RHP Lance Lynn. Porcello's teams are a super 60-26 (+14 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150+ with him on the hill, so that bodes well for the Red Sox this afternoon. The Rangers are Lynn's fourth MLB team in less than two years. And although 2018 was not very successful for the veteran (10-10 with a 4.77 ERA in 31 games including 29 starts), he's improved on that so far in 2019. But the road has been a bit of a challenge for Lynn this season, as he has gone 4-0 in six home starts but just 3-4 in seven away from Arlington. Texas has won the first two games in this series, but is still a poor 2-7 in the last nine games at Fenway Park. Meanwhile, Boston is 117-62 (+29 games on the money line) vs. righties, and 52-22 when playing with double-revenge.  Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-11-19 | Dodgers -150 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Anaheim Angels. Kenta Maeda will make his 13th start of the season. And his last five starts have been very good, as he's gone 4-0, with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP. He's also pitched well vs. the Angels in his career, with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. The Dodgers are a super 32-13 (+14 games on the money line) vs. righties this season, and 50-26 when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-11-19 | Padres -160 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. Padres rookie RHP Chris Paddack has some of the best control we've seen from an MLB rookie in a long time as he's issued only 12 free passes all season in 11 starts covering just under 61 innings. Putting pitches around the plate too much can cause a lot of damage, but that hasn't happened in Paddack's case as he has a 2.97 ERA so far. Those numbers make the 23-year-old an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year (although he may get competition from his own teammate -- SS Fernando Tatis, Jr.). It's hard to imagine a better scenario for Paddack's 12th start than pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and the anemic offense of the Giants. San Francisco's .221 team batting average is the lowest in the league and it's even worse at home as the Giants are hitting an unbelievable .208 here. Finally, the Giants are 6-21 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Padres. |
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06-11-19 | Cubs -126 v. Rockies | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -126 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Colorado Rockies. Cubs LHP Jose Quintana has a chance for some revenge tonight. His last start on June 6 was against these Rockies and it was one of his better outings of the season, but Quintana got very little run support. His opponent that day was 22-year-old rookie RHP Peter Lambert, who was making his MLB debut and pitched very well to pick up the victory.  But that game was in pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field and now Lambert must make his Coors Field debut. And that could be -- no pun intended -- a whole different ballgame. Also, before Lambert threw seven one-run innings in his debut, he had posted a 5.07 ERA in 11 starts at AAA Albuquerque so there's little to suggest in his pedigree or his Minor League numbers that he will duplicate his Wrigley success. Quintana's numbers at Coors are very respectable -- a 2-0 record with a 4.58 ERA in three starts here. Finally, the Cubs are 19-9 in Quintana's last 28 starts following a team loss in its previous game. Take the Cubs. |
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06-11-19 | Reds v. Indians -117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Cincinnati Reds. Sitting in 3rd place in their division, almost a dozen games behind the Twins and with a bunch of soon-to-be big money free agents, the Indians are likely going to be shopping some veteran players. Included in their fire sale will likely be RHP Trevor Bauer. Bauer is signed through this season at a modest $13M, and although his numbers have taken a bit of a hit in 2019, the hard-throwing 28-year-old is still seen as one of the most sought after potential trade acquisitions out there. Bauer will get start number 15 tonight at home against the Reds in a battle for Ohio bragging rights. Bauer is very effective in inter-league play, going 11-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 27 games (including 26 starts) totaling just under 163 innings. The Reds are 4-17 in their last 21 meetings in Cleveland and 11-18 (minus 10 games on the money line) in their last 29 immediately following a victory. They are also 0-8 in their last eight games vs. teams from the AL Central. Take the Tribe. |
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06-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -124 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona. The Diamondbacks are on a roll, with five straight wins (and 7 of their last 9). But we will fade Arizona tonight following its 13-8 victory here last night. The Phillies have been strong at home this season (22-13), and they're an awesome 60-31 (+17 games on the money line) their last 91 as a home favorite. Jake Arrieta will take the mound for Philly tonight. And he's been super vs. Arizona in his career, with a 2.23 ERA in nine starts, and a WHIP of 0.98. Even better: in the last two years, he's made four starts vs. Arizona, and his ERA in those games was 0.96 with a WHIP of 0.78. Take Philadelphia. |
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06-10-19 | Cubs v. Rockies -137 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Chicago Cubs. The Rockies will hand the ball to German Marquez tonight. After a dominant second-half of last season (2.47 ERA), Marquez has been inconsistent to start 2019. He has a 6-3 record, but his ERA is on the high side at 4.07. However, when one pitches half of his games at Coors Field, that's to be expected. Perhaps the better barometer of a Colorado pitcher is to just look at his Road ERA/WHIP, and Marquez's Road numbers are fantastic this season (3.32 ERA; 0.82 WHIP). Tonight, he'll face Yu Darvish and the Cubs. Darvish's numbers are pedestrian, at best, this season (4.88 ERA; 1.52 WHIP). We'll take the Rockies, as they're a super 56-27 (+17 games on the money line) as a home favorite, while Chicago's an awful 3-11 (minus 7 games on the money line) as a road underdog this season. And Darvish's teams are 3-10 in his career as an underdog with him on the mound. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-10-19 | Rangers +230 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 230 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox. You wouldn't think that a 3.84 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.8 strikeout rate and 5.79 K:BB ratio would be disappointing numbers for an MLB starter. But when you consider that the starter in question is Chris Sale, you just might have to re-think that. And those numbers come with a very sub-par record of 2-7 in 13 starts. Meanwhile, Rangers LHP Mike Minor will get his 14th start of the season tonight. And Minor has resurrected his career this season in Texas. After going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 28 starts with the Rangers last year, Minor has taken another step forward in his second season here. In 13 starts, the 31-year-old southpaw is 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA, in just over 81 innings.  Fenway Park has not been very friendly to Sale this season, as the Boston ace is 0-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five starts covering just over 28 innings here at his home venue in 2019. Even worse: the Red Sox are 4-8 in their last 12 home games, and 8-12 (minus 9 games on the money line) vs. lefties this season. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-09-19 | Orioles v. Astros -185 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Baltimore Orioles. Wade Miley seems to be hitting his stride in his early 30s rather than the normal prime age of 26-to-28. Miley put up some of the best numbers of his career last season (at age 31) going 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 16 starts. This season, Miley is 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA in his first 13 starts. Of course, it doesn't hurt that over this season and last, the veteran southpaw has pitched for two of the best teams in the Majors (the Brewers in 2018 and now the Astros). No doubt, Miley would like to forget his one and only season with the Orioles as he went 8-15 with a 5.61 ERA in 2017 in Baltimore. Start number 14 will come against that former team this afternoon in Houston. And it's an understatement to say that Miley is enjoying his new home. In six starts this season at Minute Maid Park, Miley is 3-1 with a stellar 2.23 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in just over 36 innings. Miley's teams are also 7-1 (+6 games on the money line) in his last eight starts as a favorite and 8-1 in his last nine starts as a favorite of -150 or higher. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-09-19 | Rays -105 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. It's not unusual for a young Cy Young winner to return the following season with some under-achieving numbers early on. That's certainly been the case Rays' LHP Blake Snell, who is just 3-5 with a 3.68 ERA over his first 12 starts. But despite those struggles, there are indications that Snell is every bit the pitcher he was in 2018. His walk rate this season of 2.6 is substantially better than the 3.2 number he put up last year and that has resulted in a stellar K:BB rate of 4.79 (also much better than 2018). He gets start #13 this afternoon at Fenway Park, and that's not a bad thing -- at least not for Snell. In eight career starts vs. the Red Sox, Snell has a winning record (4-3) with a very nice 3.22 ERA in just under 45 innings. The Sox will go with LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. Although the 26 year-old southpaw has a 6-3 record overall, he is just 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two daytime starts (vs. 5-2 and 4.61 in 10 starts under the lights). The Rays are 21-9 (+6.5 games on the money line) in their last 30 road games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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