Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Ravens -2.5
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Pittsburgh which is playing on a short week and without star QB Big Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night contest. Baltimore took both of last seasons meetings SU and ATS, and I really like their chances of continuing their recent dominance of the Steelers. I just don't think Byron Leftwich will be able to make enough plays for Pittsburgh to keep this one close enough to cover. Lay the number.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Raiders +5.5
The Key: This is a big-time letdown spot for the Saints after handing Atlanta its first loss of the season last week. Plays against favorites in the month of November that are coming off an upset win at home are 28-9 ATS since 1983. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.1 points but have lost by an average of 1.6. Also, plays on home underdogs or pickems that have a good offense that averages 5.4 yards or more per game, as long as the defense allowed 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, are 30-8 ATS since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 4.5 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Take the Raiders.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Jets +3.5
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Rams after last week's emotional tie against division rival San Francisco. Meanwhile, this is a major bounce back spot for the Jets, who have laid eggs in their last two games since taking New England down to the wire. The Jets are a better football team than they've shown, and I fully expect them to show up in a big way this week. Plays on road teams that are coming off a road loss in the month of November have produced an awesome 40-9 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Bet the Jets.

6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has been at its best in terms of an investment when playing on the road. It is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, 8-1 ATS in road games following a home loss over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in road games after playing its last game at home over the last 2 seasons. The Phins have won by an average of 3.4 points in the six straight aforementioned covers. The Dolphins are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 14 points. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chiefs +12.5
The Key: The Chiefs are being undervalued because they've lost 5 in a row. They've had 3 more days than Pittsburgh to prepare for this one, and I expect that to make a big difference. Plus, this is a look ahead spot for the Steelers, who have a big game with Baltimore Sunday. Pittsburgh is just 10-23 ATS in its last 33 as a favorite of 10 or more points while Kansas City 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992. The Chiefs are also on a sweet 9-1 ATS run in road games when coming off a road blowout loss of 14 points or more. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +1
The Key: The Bears will meet their match Sunday night. The Bears don't have an impressive win in my opinion while Houston has impressive wins over Denver and Baltimore. The Bears have relied on their defense to make big plays against lesser opponents as they have struggled offensively, but their defense won't be able to bail them out here against against a Houston team that doesn't give the ball away. The Texans have had 0 giveaways in 5 games and just 6 total on the season. The Texans are on a 6-0-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Texans.

6* Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Rams +11.5
The Key: The Rams are being undervalued here and the numbers support my claim. Underdogs of 10.5 or more points that allowed 30 points or more in their last game and have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points or more on the season are 28-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have only lost by an average of 8.5 points in this spot. Also, going against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have won at least 60% of their games on the season and are coming off at least two consecutive victories has produced a 59-29 ATS record since 1983. These teams are only winning by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. Grab all the points you can and take the Rams.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +9.5
The Key: The Ravens are being way overvalued at home where they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Raiders have a win over Pittsburgh and took Atlanta down to the wire at home so they are clearly capable of playing with anyone. Baltimore is a dismal 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Ravens are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lastly, Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. Take Oakland.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Jaguars +4
The Key: Indy's upset win at home against Miami last week puts it into a prime fade spot. Playing against favorites that have a winning record and are coming off an upset win at home has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Colts have struggled against the Jags, losing each of the last 3 meetings both SU and ATS. They have also struggled on the road where they are 1-2 with their lone win coming in OT. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +3
The Key: Even though the Eagles have found ways to lose games, we can't ignore the fact that 5 of their 7 games have been decided by 3 points or less. In other words, they have been in virtually every game this season. We also can't ignore how bad the Saints have been defensively. They are dead last in total defense with 474.7 yards per game and dead last against the run with 170.1 yards per game. Their terrible run defense gives the an Eagles the clear advantage tonight. Philly ranks 11th with 117.7 rushing yards per game and is certainly capable of running all over the Saints with LeSean McCoy and Vick. Being able to keep the ball on the ground should also help the Eagles keep their turnovers to a minimum. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +4.5
The Key: The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Plus, they have never lost under coach Garrett when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this situation. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta's last 2 home wins have come by only 2 and 3 points against lowly Carolina and Oakland teams. They'll have a tough time beating a Dallas team that ranks in the top 7 in both total offense and defense by more than a field. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3.5
The Key: I'll gladly take the Steelers catching better than a field goal as they haven't lost by more than 3 points in their last 6 games. Pittsburgh has had no trouble getting up for elite competition. In fact, it is on a 34-15 ATS run against teams that have won at least 75% or their games. It has won these games by an average of 2.8 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are only 4-16 ATS in home games against teams with a winning percentage between 51% and 60%. They have lost to these teams by an average of 3.2 points. Pittsburgh is the better defensive team and Roethlisberger is playing the QB position better than Eli Manning right now. Take the Steelers.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Bengals +4
The Key: Fully prepared following a bye and in desperation mode following 3 consecutive defeats, look for the Bengals to get the job done at home. The Broncos won big last week at home against the Saints and are being overvalued because of it. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory of more than 14 points. The Broncos have won the last 3 meetings in the series but all 3 games went right down to the wire. 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less, and they would have lost the other had a deflected prayer not found Brandon Stokley with just 11 ticks left on the clock. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups. It is also worth mentioning that the Broncos haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-2 and could easily be 0-3 (trailed SD 24-0 at halftime). Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Bet the Bengals.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Chiefs +9
The Key: The Chargers are not 10 points better than the Chiefs if Kansas City takes care of the football. After turning it over 6 times in the first meeting, you know Kansas City will be placing an emphasis on ball security. San Diego has struggled so much on offense lately that Kansas City isn't going to take a risky approach. I expect the Chiefs to try and grind it out. The Chargers have averaged just 286.5 yards or offense over their last two games. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. Also, the Chiefs are on an incredible 23-6 ATS run after giving up 25.0 points or more in two straight games. They have actually won by an average of 2.2 points in these contests. Take the points.

7* MNF Game of the Month on Cardinals +7.5
The Key: The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row, but 2 of those were on the road. They lost by 7 points on the road last week to a Minnesota team that defeated the 49ers by 11. So there's no shame in that loss. Arizona has been at its best at home where it is 3-1 this season with its lone loss coming by only 3 points in overtime. The Cardinals won the most recent meeting in the series 21-19 at home as they held the 49ers to only 233 yards of offense. Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, and I expect it to have plenty of success slowing down a struggling 49er offense that has scored just 16 total points in its last 2 games. Arizona is 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses the last two decades. It has won by an average score of 22.0 to 21.1 in these spots. It is also 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Whisenhunt in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. The Cards have won in these spots by an average score of 33.7 to 22.2. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Cardinals are even 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -6
The Key: The Broncos have been a sweet investment following a bye as they are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 in this situation and have won these by an average of 8.8 points. They have also won their last 3 against the Saints by an average of 12.7 points. Denver is 2-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to a Houston team that looks to be a Super Bowl contender. The 2 wins came by double digits. Not only does the bye week give them an advantage, but so does the high altitude which has given visitors problems for years. I also expect Denver's 4th-ranked passing offense (290.8 ypg) to be way too much for a defense that is last in the league with 465.5 ypg allowed. Lay the number.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Dolphins +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games. Look for them to continue to make money for their backers as they go up against a New York defense that hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life. The Jets are giving up an average of 147 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and these numbers increase to 162 and 5.3 at home. These numbers weigh in our favor as the Dolphins are 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry - over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Eagles -1
The Key: Since Andy Reid was made head man of the Philadelphia Eagles, there's one thing we've been able to count on - his teams being ready to go following a bye week. In fact, the Eagles are 13-0 all-time under Reid in games immediately following a bye week. It is also worth noting that the Eagles are 6-0 SU and ATS all-time under Reid in home games against the Atlanta Falcons. They have won these 6 by an average of 15.5 points. The Eagles' offensive and defensive numbers are superior as they rank 7th and 11th in the league in total offense and defense, respectively. The Falcons rank 13th and 22nd, respectively in total offense and defense. Expect the Eagles to hand Atlanta its first loss of the season.

7* NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year on Buccaneers +7
The Key: The Bucs are showing major value at +7 considering they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points all season. Plus, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against the Vikings. Also, they have either won or lost by 7 points or fewer in 11 straight meetings with Minnesota. Plays against home teams with a good offense that averages 335-370 ypg and is matched up against a team with a poor defense that allows 370 or more ypg are 36-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 7.3 points but have only won by an average of 5.5. Bet the Bucs.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions +7
The Key: Each of Detroit's 3 losses have come by 8 points or less, and I fully expect it to take Chicago right down to the wire tonight. The Lions have either won of lost by 5 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Bears and are 3-1 ATS in those games as a result. The Bears have the NFL's top-ranked run defense (65.8 ypg) but Detroit is 10-1 ATS versus teams with excellent rushing defenses that allow 70 rushing yards or less per game the last two decades. It has defeated these teams by an average of 4.9 points. Also, Chicago is just 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games the last two decades. It has lost by an average of 4.3 points in these games. The Bears have yet to see an offense this season that's as explosive as Detroit's. We'll take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers pk
The Key: I'm confident the Steelers are the better football team, and I expect them to continue their dominance of the Bengals in this highly motivated spot. In danger of falling to 2-4 and losing even more ground on Baltimore, the Steelers will show up in a big way here. Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 14.3 points. All four victories came by at least six points. The Steelers have been an awesome investment in bounce back spots as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The Bengals, meanwhile, have been a poor investment when entering with no momentum. They are 0-5-3 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. They are also a lousy 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 division games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Steelers are on a 13-3-1 ATS run in their last 17 in Cincinnati. Take Pittsburgh.

6* NFC East *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6.5
The Key: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued here because of last week's impressive win in San Francisco. The fact of the matter is Washington won both of last season's meetings convincingly (by 14 and 13 points), and I believe they are a better team with Robert Griffin III at the controls. The Redskins have been a terrific investment in this point spread range at 60-39 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. The Redskins have the second-best running attack in the NFL and are coming off a 183-yard performance on the ground last week. That's good for us as the Skins are on a 13-2 ATS run in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. They are also on a 6-2 ATS run versus NFC East foes. Take the points.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Bills -3
The Key: The Titans cannot be trusted on the road. They have lost each of their three road games this season by an average of 25.0 points. Going back to last season, the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They also haven't been able to string together back-to-back solid performances so the fact they enter off a win over Pittsburgh doesn't bode well for them. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. The biggest thing here is we can expect coach Chan Gailey to have his Bills ready to go as they are at home and have a chance to go above the .500 mark. They enter with a little momentum on their side following a win at Arizona that ended a two-game skid. NFL teams under the direction of Gailey have never lost at home when entering a contest with losses in two of their last three games. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.3 points. Both teams have struggled defensively, but Buffalo is the superior offensive team. It has one of the best running attacks in the NFL while Tennessee has the worst. Expect the Bills to run away with a comfortable home win Sunday.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -7
The Key: We get the 49ers in a great situation tonight. No team in the NFL has responded better following an upset defeat the past few seasons, and you can bet they'll be hungry following Sunday's ugly loss to the Giants. The Niners are on a 7-0 ATS run after suffering an upset defeat in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. They've held their opponents to just 10.7 points on average in these games while scoring an average of 22.6 points. Additionally, San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 home games against the Seahawks. These 3 wins have come by 16, 19 and 13 points. The 49ers are the best defensive team in the NFL while the Seahawks rank in the bottom 4 on offense. The Seattle defense has been good, but it won't be able to completely shut down a San Francisco offense that ranks 7th in the league. Expect the 49er defense to dominate this one and for the offense to do enough to cover the spread. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +1
The Key: San Diego is 3-2 while Denver is 2-3 but the Broncos have been the more impressive team as they have showed well against stiffer competition. San Diego's pass defense, which ranks 22nd in the NFL with 260 yards allowed per game, has been suspect. I believe it will be the downfall of the Chargers tonight as Peyton Manning is dialed in. He has passed for 1,005 yards with 8 TDs and no picks the past 3 weeks. Fading home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games - a team winning between 51-60% of their games against a team with a losing record - has produced a 32-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Bet the Broncos.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers +3.5
The Key: This is a huge game for the Packers, who can get back to .500 with a win. I like them in this motivated spot as they go up against a Houston team playing on a short week. The Packers are 15-5 ATS under coach McCarthy as a road underdog of 7 points or less. They have never lost under coach McCarthy on the road versus good defensive teams that give up 17 points or less. They are 6-0 ATS all-time versus these teams and have defeated them by an average of 8.1 points.

6* Raiders +9.5
The Key: Atlanta is clearly being overvalued here because of its 5-0 start. Look for an Oakland squad that has had an extra week to prepare to give the Falcons a game. Atlanta has only defeated 1 of its past 4 opponents by more than 7 points. The Falcons are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home contests when checking in off 3 or more consecutive victories. They have actually lost by an average of 1.9 points in this spot. Plus, the Raiders are on a 5-2-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Grab the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins -3
The Key: Miami is really playing well, and I expect it to take care of business at home against a St. Louis team that's 0-2 on the road this season. The Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, and they might even be the worse now that top playmaker Danny Amendola is expected to be out at least a month. They won't be able to keep pace with Miami, which ranks in the top half of the league on offense. With Amendola out, the Rams will likely have to turn even more to Steven Jackson and the running game. However, they won't get much done on the ground this week against a defense that leads the NFL against the run with 61.4 ypg allowed. The Dolphins are on a 9-0 ATS run against team with a winning mark. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. And, fading any team with a winning record that checks in off an upset win at home against a division rival has produced a 68-27 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Titans +6.5
The Key: Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Mike Tomlin when up against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Steelers have lost by an average score of 19.3 to 18.7 in these games. The Steelers are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last road games played on a grass field. They have lost these 8 by an average score of 23.0 to 14.9. Take the Titans and the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets +9
The Key: I'll gladly get behind the Jets catching close to double digits because underdogs or pickems that average 18.0 to 23.0 ppg, and are checking into a matchup with a team that averages 27.0-plus ppg, following a contest in which they were held to 9.0 points or less are 33-11 ATS since 1983. These dogs have only lost by 3.3 points on average in this scenario. Plus, the Texans are only 1-10 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when matched up against teams that give up 27.0 points or more per game. They have actually lost to these foes by an average of 0.6 points. The Jets are a more talented football team than they showed last week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They'll show up tonight. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: The Saints are 0-4, but they're not going to fold, especially not at home, where they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning road record. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards/game. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in each of their last 3 games. This is the week the Saints finally put it all together. Lay the points.

6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Broncos +7
The Key: I really like the Broncos, who haven't lost by more than 6 points this season and are beginning to jell, catching more than 6 points. Playing on road teams - slow starting team that has been outscored by 5-plus points per game in the first half after allowing 6 points or less last game - has produced a 23-4 ATS record the last 29 years. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 10 seasons. Basically, this system reveals that Denver has the defense to stay in the game even if the offense comes out slow. I don't think Denver will start slow against a New England defense that has really struggled in pass coverage. Take the points as Peyton Manning has himself a big day through the air.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Steelers -3
The Key: The Eagles, who are 0-3-1 ATS this season, are fortunate to be 3-1 as they have yet to put it all together. Their inconsistent play will catch up with them today as they go up against a hungry and prepared Steelers squad. The Steelers have been money coming out of a bye as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pittsburgh has also been money in bounce back spots. It is 9-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 28.6 to 9.0. It is also 8-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Expect the Steelers to roll behind a dominant performance from their defense.

7* NFC West Game of the Month on Rams +2
The Key: Arizona is getting treated like a 4-0 team by laying points on the road when it could easily be 2-2. The Cards were extremely fortunate to win at home last week as they gave up 480 yards of offense to a Miami team led by a rookie QB. Not only does the defense all of sudden look very human, the offense is one of the worst in the NFL. It ranks next-to-last in total offense with just 271.8 yards per game. The fact St. Louis is coming off an upset win at home over Seattle bodes extremely well for us. Consider that teams coached by Jeff Fishers are 7-0 ATS all-time following an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog. His teams have won by an average score of 27.1 to 19.0 in this situation. Take the Rams.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +3.5
The Key: Fading Dallas as a favorite has been a golden investment. Doing so has produced a powerful 17-4 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the points as the Bears have an excellent chance to win this one straight up.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Dolphins +6.5
The Key: The Dolphins, who are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, are showing a ton of value catching this many points as they have an excellent chance to win this game straight up. Fading favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, if they have a winning record on the season, has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are being overvalued because of their 3-0 start, but I'm far from sold on them. They have had fewer total yards than their opponent in each of their games, and they rank 31st in the NFL in total offense with just 263.3 yards per game. It's going to be mighty tough for them to cover this number with no more offense than they've been able to generate. Take the points.

6* Rams +3
The Key: Expect a letdown from Seattle following Monday's emotional win. The Seahawks are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win and 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games. Playing against favorites off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, has produced a 19-3 ATS mark the last 10 seasons, a 13-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons and a 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

6* Panthers +7.5
The Key: Playing against home teams - an opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers has produced a 22-4 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 10 seasons.

6* Patriots -4
The Key: Playing on favorites that have covered the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25%-40% of their games playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 37-11 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, New England is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. It has defeated these opponents by an average score of 38.7 to 18.5. Lastly, the Pats are 13-4 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Ravens -11.5
The Key: This line is soft and we'll take advantage. The Ravens are on a 100% 8-0 run against the Browns, winning these 8 by 14.0 points on average. They have won the last 4 home meetings by 15.5 points on average. Baltimore is going to make rookie QB Brandon Weeden beat them, and I don't see him playing well at all tonight against an experienced defense.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers -3
The Key: Teams have been known to struggle when they hit the road following an extended stay at home, but the Packers haven't been one of those teams. Under coach McCarthy, they are 9-1 ATS in road games following a 2 game home stand. They have won by an average of 10.6 points in this situation. Seattle notched an impressive win over Dallas last week but it is on a 6-16 ATS slide off an upset win by 10 points or more. It has lost in this situation by an average of 6.7 points. The Packers are clearly the more talented team with a far superior offense. The only thing Seattle has going for it is its home field and that won't be enough.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Raiders +4.5
The Key: The Raiders are a better football team than they've shown so far, and I like their chances at home against a Pittsburgh squad that will be without defensive stars Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Also, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. In 6 of those covers, the dog won outright.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Eagles -3
The Key: The Cards were fortunate to beat New England last week. The Pats outgained them by 142 yards but settled for 5 field goal attempts. Philadelphia has the most explosive offense in the NFL, and it will blow Arizona out if it can limit its turnovers. I still like the Eagles to cover this number is they continue with their turnover issues because they also have one of the top defenses in the NFL. Under coach Andy Reid, the Eagles are an impressive 18-9 ATS in road games after gaining 400 yards or more in their previous game. They have won by an average of 5.8 points in these games. Lay the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Vikings +7
The Key: The Vikings aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. I can see the 49ers laying 3 on the road but not 7. The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and the Vikings are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Panthers pk
The Key: The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home, and I expect them to build on this trend against the banged up Giants. New York's Super Bowl win was an anomaly considering it had the worst running game in the NFL and a defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. It's clear the running game is still struggling and the defense is far from fixed. The Giants are still heavily reliant on Eli Manning, but he won't have one of his top weapons available tonight. WR Hakeem Nicks, who had 10 receptions for 10 199 yards and a score in Week 2, has been ruled out with a foot injury. His absence will allow the Panthers to really key on Victor Cruz. Bet the Panthers.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Falcons -3
The Key: I love the Falcons at home tonight considering they went 6-2 at home last season and are a tremendous 26-6 at home in the regular season the last four years. Plus, the Falcons are on a 25-13 ATS run as favorites, a 12-4 ATS run against AFC foes and a 10-2 ATS run in home games in the 1st half of the season. I'm expecting a strong season from the Falcons, and I'm confident they'll make a big statement with an impressive win tonight.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions +7
The Key: The Lions are being undervalued here because they only defeated the Rams by 4 points in Week 1. However, Detroit outgained St. Louis by 178 yards in that contest. It would have won comfortably had it not been for turnovers. Those miscues will have the Lions all the more focused tonight. The 49ers only won last season's meeting by 6 points and they were extremely fortunate to do so as they trailed with under 2 minutes left. Detroit has a more explosive offense than San Francisco, and it has a defense capable of really slowing down the Niners as we saw in last year's battle. Take the points in what should be a close contest.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Cowboys -3
The Key: This is a complete mismatch. The Cowboys have won their last 3 against the Seahawks by 25, 21 and 10 points. They have an enormous advantage at QB with proven veteran Tony Romo. Seattle rookie Russell Wilson struggled in the opener, and I expect those struggles to continue against a strong Dallas pass rush. Ware picked up 2 sacks against the Giants, and I expect him to be breathing down Wilson's neck all afternoon. Fading home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) that are coming off a losing season and enter off a defeat on the road has produced a 50-17 ATS record the last 29 years. This golden system is 12-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Boys.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Eagles -1
The Key: The Ravens find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot as they face the explosive Eagles on a short week after playing Monday night. This is incredibly significant because the Blackbirds are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games following a Monday Night Football contest. The Ravens won big in their opener but are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 14 points. Philly is perhaps the most talented team in the NFL. It outgained Cleveland 456-210 in Week 1 and would have blown the Browns out had it not been for 5 turnovers. Those turnovers work in our favor here as Philly will be much more focused on taking care of the football this week.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Bears +6
The Key: The fact Da Bears opened the season with an impressive 20-point win over Indy is significant because they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The fact the Bears covered the spread in their opener is also significant because they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bears are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NFC and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Green Bay defense clearly still has some kinks to work out. I like Chicago's balanced offensive attack to cause all kinds of problems for the the Green Bay "D" tonight. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +1
The Key: The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue as San Diego has won 7 of its last 8 on the road in this series. The Chargers are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes. The Raiders are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 on Monday Night Football.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* (NBC) on Steelers +2
The Key: The Broncos have been a poor bet at home where they are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. Plus, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Pittsburgh wants this game badly after getting bounced from the playoffs by Denver last season. Peyton Manning has had a special NFL career, but I'm not sold on him here against the top defense in the league a year ago. I expect it will take Manning some time to turn Denver's offense into a well-oiled machine. Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cardinals +3
The Key: The Seahawks are getting too much respect here with a rookie QB set to make his first. Russell Wilson hasn't done anything in the NFL yet while Arizona's John Skelton led the Cards to a 6-2 record in games he appeared in last year. The Seahawks are a poor 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC West. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, and the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Arizona. Take the points as Cards win outright.

6* AFC East *CA$H COW* on Jets -2.5
The Key: The Jets are 5-0 in their last 5 versus the Bills, and all of these wins have come by four points or more. I like NY to continue its dominance in the series at home, where it went 6-2 last season, against a Bills team that only went 1-7 on the road last year. The Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road contests. Lay the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -3.5
The Key: The Cowboys were 0-6 ATS versus NFC East opponents last season, losing those games by an average of 9.2 points. New York has especially had Dallas' number. It swept the season series last year and has won 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9. Tom Coughlin's Giants have endured some mid-season slumps, but he always had them ready to play early. In fact, Coughlin's teams are 21-9 ATS in September home games all-time. Lay the number.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots -2.5
The Key: The Patriots lost the regular season meeting by 4 points as the Giants scored a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining. New England, which outgained the Giants 438-361 in that game, was done in by 4 turnovers. Considering the Pats have only committed 2 or more turnovers 5 times all season (the Giants have committed 2 or more 8 times), I like their chances in this revenge spot. The Pats are an impressive 29-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss against an opponent since 1992, and they are 13-3 ATS in this situation since Belichick took over in 2000, winning those games by an average of 9.5 points. Expect the Patriots to have their revenge.

7* NFC Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3
The Key: The 49ers may be 8-1 at home with a win over the Giants this season, but the Packers were 8-0 at home and had a win over the G-men also before losing to them by 17 points last week. New York is an undefeated 6-0 ATS in the postseason when playing away from home with Tom Coughlin at the helm, and I'll ride this trend Sunday.

7* AFC Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +9
The Key: These teams have met 4 times since 2007 and 3 of those meetings were decided by 6 points or less. The one that wasn't was a 33-14 Ravens win in New England in the 2010 playoffs. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home playoff games. I just don't see New England's 31st-ranked defense, which allowed 411.1 yards per game during the regular season, getting enough stops to cover this number. Bet Baltimore.

6* NFC Divisional Playoffs CA$H COW on Packers -7.5
The Key: Dating back to last season, the Packers have won 13 in a row at home by an average of 18.8 points. The Giants played Green Bay tough at home in early December, but they were crushed 45-17 last season in their visit to Lambeau. Look for the Packers to continue their home dominance this afternoon.

7* Sunday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -7.5
The Key: Dating back to last season, the Ravens have won 10 in a row at home by an average of 11.2 points. They crushed Houston 29-14 during the regular season when the Texans still had Matt Schaub under center. Expect the Ravens to make life difficult for rookie TJ Yates on their way to another double-digit win.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Broncos +14
The Key: The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home playoff games. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog. The numbers heavily support the Broncos, who enter this matchup with a ton of confidence following a big win over the reigning AFC champs.

6* NFC Divisional Playoffs CA$H COW on 49ers +4
The Key: The 49ers have been an awesome investment at home to say the least, going 21-6 SU and 19-5-3 ATS in their last 27 games, including 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS this season. The Saints have struggled on the road this season, losing 3 games and winning 3 by 5 points or less. Take the points.

7* AFC Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +9
The Key: I'm not hesitating to fade the banged up Steelers in this spread range. Pittsburgh has dropped 11 of its last 13 against the number when valued as a favorite of 7.5-14.0 points on the road.

6* NFC Wild Card CA$H COW on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 0-2 SU and ATS in playoff games with Matt Ryan under center. I'll take the more experienced postseason performers at home here.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Lions +11
The Key: The Lions may come up a little short in terms of winning the game straight up but I love them catching double-digits in this revenge spot. Plays on road teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent following a road game in which both them and their opponents scored 24 points or more are 19-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the points.

6* AFC Wild Card CA$H COW on Texans -3.5
The Key: The Bengals are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AFC. The Bengals are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 with the Texans.

6* Sunday Night Football CA$H COW (NBC) on Cowboys +3
The Key: The underdog is 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5 in this series. Also, the Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog while the Giants are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

6* Chargers +3
The Key: The Raiders are a lousy 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these AFC West rivals.

6* Redskins +9
The Key: The Eagles have been overvalued the majority of the season and that remains the case here. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite. The Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

6* Lions -3.5
The Key: Already locked into the No. 1 seed, the Packers have nothing to play for here. Detroit, meanwhile, has a chance to move into the No. 5 seed with a win to get an easier first-round opponent.

7* NFL Line Mistake Game of the Week on Panthers +9
The Key: The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New Orleans. Even if New Orleans doesn't decide to rest its starters, the odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Carolina team that played the Saints to a 3-point game earlier this season.

7* MNF Game of the Year on Falcons +7
The Key: The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. New Orleans is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of its last 8 games. Take the Falcons.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +13
The Key: Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. No team has won by more than 10 points in the last 7 in this series.

6* Cowboys -1
The Key: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series, and the Eagles are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 against Dallas.

6* Raiders +2.5
The Key: The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 in this series, and the Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City.

6* Vikings +6.5
The Key: The Redskins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

7* NFL Line Mistake Game of the Month on Dolphins +10
The Key: Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 with only 1 loss of more than 10 points during this stretch. The Dolphins are on a 5-0 ATS run vs. teams with winning records, and they are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Take the points.

6* Buccaneers +9
The Key: The Buccaneers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans -6.5
The Key: The Texans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. Take the Texans.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Steelers +3
The Key: I really like Pittsburgh catching a field goal tonight as it is on a 14-5 ATS run as an underdog of 3 points or less. The Steelers are 8-1 in their last 9 games with that only loss coming by just 3 points. Baltimore's loss last night gives the Steelers an opportunity to climb into the top spot in the division with a win here, and I expect them to take advantage.

6* Raiders +1.5
The Key: The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.0 or less.

6* Chiefs +14.5
The Key: The Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater while the Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. Green Bay hasn't won by more than 12 on the road all season.

6* Panthers +6.5
The Key: Houston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, but the stop unit has been dealt a blow with coordinator Wade Phillips set to miss this contest following surgery. Without Phillips on the sideline last year, the Houston defense was 30th in the league. Houston is 0-6 ATS in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons when matched up against good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play.

6* Bears -3.5
The Key: This is a must-win game for the Bears as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I expect them to come through against a Seattle team that struggles on the road. The Seahawks are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Vikings +7.5
The Key: The Vikings haven't gone down by more than six points in any home game this season. It's also worth noting the Saints haven't prevailed by more than five points in any of their previous five on the road. The Saints have lost their last 5 in Minnesota and are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Vikings. The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a losing record. The Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. We'll take the live home dog here.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7.5
The Key: Recent trends stack the odds heavily against Dallas here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bet the Bucs.

7* NFL Thursday Night Side & Total *POWER PARLAY* on Jaguars +12.5/Under 42.5
The Key: Atlanta has only defeated 2 teams by more than 12 points this season and one of those teams was the Colts. The Jaguars have a win over a Baltimore team that is arguably the class of the AFC. They have also played 10-win Pittsburgh and Houston teams to single-digit games. The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more.

The total is elevated because both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs. This gives us an opportunity to cash in on the under. The Jags have finished under the number in 10 of 13 games this season and the Falcons have come in under the total in 8 of their last 9.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Rams +10.5
The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued following a big 17-point win over the Eagles last week. Seattle benefited from a +4 turnover margin in that game but shouldn't enjoy the same advantage tonight versus a St. Louis team that hasn't had worse than a -2 margin all season. The Seahawks are a poor 3-24-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Bet St. Louis.

6* Cardinals +4
The Key: The 49ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite and 7-23-4 ATS in their last 34 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Bears +3.5
The Key: The Broncos are 16-35-3 ATS in their last 54 games as a home favorite and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

6* Eagles +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 20-48-1 ATS in their last 69 home games and 9-29 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Bengals -1.5
The Key: The Texans, who are riding a 6-game winning streak, are getting points against a Cincy team that was blown out last week. Something smells fishy. The Texans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Also, Cincy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game. With Houston's third-string QB making his first road start against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, this one won't end well for the Texans.

6* Titans +4
The Key: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points while the Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

7* NFL Thursday Night Parlay of the Year on Browns +14.5/Under 39
The Key: The Steelers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 35 points or more last game. They have only won by an average of 1.5 points in this situation. Also, they are only 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games when laying 10 or more points. They have only won by an average of 8.9 points in this situation.

The Under is 4-1 in the Steelers' last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater and 6-2 in the Browns' last 8 games overall. Both of these teams are very solid defensively with the Browns ranking 8th in the NFL in both total and scoring defense and the Steelers ranking No. 1 in total defense and 4th in points allowed. We'll take the points and the under.

7* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers -3
The Key: The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games. San Diego, which crushed the Jags by 25 points last season, is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games versus AFC South foes, defeating them by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the number.

6* Sunday Night Football Bailout (NBC) on Lions +9
The Key: The Lions are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of 10 points or more at home. Take the points.

5* Cardinals +5
The Key: The Cowboys are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. We'll fade Dallas laying more than a field goal in Arizona, where it lost last year.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Giants +7
The Key: The Giants need this game badly, and they haven't forgotten about the beating they were handed at Green Bay last season. The Packers are good, there's no doubt, but they are extremely lucky to still be undefeated because their defense is so poor (30th in the NFL with 393.4 ypg allowed). Look for this hungry New York squad to take Green Bay right down to the wire with a chance to win outright for an easy cover. The Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the points and best of luck.

6* Dolphins -3
The Key: The Raiders are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less.

5* Bears -7
The Key: The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.