Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are the better team in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams have put up legit numbers this season outgaining teams by 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  The Jaguars haven't as they are dead even in yardage differential and dead even in yards per play.  The Jaguars have been one of the most lucky teams in the NFL to force 15 turnovers and score an insane amount of points off those turnovers.  They are +11 in turnover differential this season, which is the only reason they are 3-2.  I don't like backing teams that must win the turnover battle to win the game, which is almost always the case for the Jaguars because they aren't very good, especially on offense.  West Coast teams traveling East is usually a tough spot for them, but not here because this is a 4:05 EST start time.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season.  The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won.  They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward.  Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers.  The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright.  Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade.  The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on New Orleans Saints -4

The Key: The New Orleans Saints are off a bye and off two straight wins by a combined 54-13 final.  Their 34-13 win at Carolina looks mighty impressive right now.  The Lions haven't been as good as their 3-2 record statistically as they have benefited from a +8 turnover differential.  But the Lions have key injuries on their offensive line and on defense, and Matthew Stafford is starting to feel the effects of being sacked 12 times over the last 2 weeks.  He is hobbled coming into this one and won't be 100%.  The Saints are 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.  Take New Orleans.

7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense.  Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out.  You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has.  Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not.  He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him.  I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions.  Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson.  Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions.  Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Carolina.

7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.  They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers.  The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season.  The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday.  Take Chicago.

7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1

The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans.  They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win.  The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans.  Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers.  Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs.  It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins.  Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game.  The spot favors the Texans here.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +1

The Key: The Jets, Colts and Browns are the 3 worst teams in the NFL and it's very close between all 3 power-ratings wise.  The Browns were favored at Indianapolis in Week 3, and now they're home underdogs to  the Jets in Week 5.  The Jets were 6.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, and 3.5-point home dogs to the Jaguars.  Now they're favored on the road here after winning those 2 games.  Those games were terrible travel spots for the Dolphins and Jaguars.  The Dolphins were on the road for 5 straight weeks since the preseason and were coming back from a West Coast trip to San Diego.  The Jaguars were coming back from London.  The line value is clearly with the home dog Browns here.  They'll be desperate to get their first win, and I think they get it done.  The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following 2 consecutive home wins.  New York is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  Bets on any team with a poor offensive (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Cleveland.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically.  They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game.  The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game.  They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest.  Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games.  Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Washington.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Key: The fact that the Chargers are taking money and moving this line up to -2.5 is mind-blowing.  The Eagles are clearly the better team in this matchup, and the Chargers simply find ways to lose.  The Chargers are just 9-26 straight up over the past 3 seasons combined, winning roughly 25% of their games.  They can't be favored here against an upstart Eagles team that is one of the most improved in the NFL this season.  Philip Rivers should have already retired as he looks old and slow and has lost his arm strength.  He threw three interceptions against the Chiefs last week and it could have been more.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage right now as the LA fans just aren't into them, especially after their 0-3 start.  Los Angeles is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games. The Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games.  They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday.  And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them.  Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Take San Francisco.

6* Titans/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a win in Cincinnati and a near-win in New England in his first two NFL starts.  If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.  This guy just isn't getting the love he deserves from oddsmakers as the Texans are now a home dog to the Titans.  Now Watson will have another healthy weapon back in Will Fuller, who is expected to make his season debut.  Having Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Bruce Ellington gives the Texans one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league.  The Titans are in a tough spot after a physical game against the Seahawks last week.  And after beating Seattle, it's certainly a bit of a letdown spot for them here.  Teams have not done well the week after facing Seattle over the past decade.  The Texans have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Titans, and they are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Houston.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North Game of the Month on Green Bay -7

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Chicago Bears.  They have also gone 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  They won 26-10 at home over the Bears last year.  The QB edge for the Packers here is worth at least 7 points.  If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get up 7 or more, the Bears won't be able to come back because Matt Glennon has been terrible, and he has the worst set of receivers in the NFL.  The Bears can run the ball, but that's not going to work if they get behind.  I think the Packers are by far the safer side here.  Hanging with the Steelers and Packers in back-to-back games is just too much to ask for Chicago.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cowboys/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have gone on the road the first two weeks and are 1-1.  There's no shame in that.  Now it's their home opener on the Monday night stage, and the Cardinals are primed for their best performance of the season.  Dallas has a ton of injuries in the secondary, and the Cardinals' strength is their passing attack, so Carson Palmer is primed for a big game here.  Trevor Siemian lit up Dallas' secondary last week, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Cowboys lost that game 17-42.  The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL after finishing #2 in total defense last year.  They will be able to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot here Monday.  Dogs are 12-3 ATS so far in Week 3, and I think this is another live home dog here tonight.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  Arians is 7-0 ATS against NFC East teams as the coach of the Cardinals.  Take Arizona.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14

The Key: The New England Patriots have too many injuries right now to be favored by 14 over the Houston Texans.  They have a handful of skill players on offense who are banged up, and the injuries on defense have led to the Patriots giving up 31 points, 483 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play.  Their defense was terrible in the preaseson too.  I think Deshaun Watson can make enough plays to keep this game close, while the Texans' defense remains one of the elite units in the league.  Plus Watson gets some key weapons back this week in TE Ryan Griffin and WR Bruce Ellington.  Also CB Jonathan Joseph is expected to return from injury.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Buffalo Bills +3.5

The Key: The betting public is all over the Denver Broncos in this game.  They are coming off the most impressive win over the week in Week 2 with a 42-17 victory over the Cowboys.  They have opened 2-0 at home, but now they are going on the road for the first time.  And the Broncos have a massive game against Oakland on deck next week.  This is the classic sandwich spot.  The Bills have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, which makes this a good matchup for them because the Broncos had the 28th-ranked run defense last year.  The Bills have an elite defense that can keep them in this game.  They are only giving up 10.5 points, 234 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Take Buffalo.

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3

The Key: One of the biggest advantages in professional sports is home teams on Thursday night games.  The short week for road teams is so tough because they have to travel and have almost zero time to prepare.  I think the 49ers were impressive last week in their 12-9 road loss to the Seahawks as 14-point dogs.  They have been able to get the running game going behind Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this season.  The Rams gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Redskins last week.  The 49ers have won 3 straight meetings with the Rams and are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  They were home dogs to the Rams last season, and won 28-0.  Take San Francisco.

7* Cowboys/Broncos Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys went 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in meaningful road games last season where they played all of their starters.  They dominated on the road, beating the likes of the Packers and Steelers along the way.  The thing about the Cowboys is that their style of play travels well.  Teams that can run the football can win on the road.  And the Cowboys are probably the best in the league in that aspect.  Plus, Dak Prescott doesn't make critical mistakes and takes care of the football.  And the Cowboys should be able to run on a Broncos defense that ranked 28th in the NFL against the run last season.  Jason Garrett is 15-5 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Dallas.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Cleveland Browns +7.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns gave the Pittsburgh Steelers all they could handle last week in a 21-18 home loss as 10-point dogs.  The Steelers blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, which was the difference in that game.  They held a high-powered Steelers offense to just 14 points, while basically stopping Le'Veon Bell completely.  The Bengals turned the ball over 5 times against the Ravens last week, yet the Ravens only scored 20 points.  That just shows how bad of shape this Baltimore offense is in right now.  That's why they can't be laying more than a TD against one of the most improved teams in the NFL in the Browns, who can keep this one close.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have an elite defense that forced 4 turnovers and held the Texans to 7 points and 203 total yards last week.  They are the better defensive football team in this matchup with the Titans.  And the Jags have a new-found running game thanks to the upgrades they made along the offensive line and in the backfield with Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 100 yards in the win last week.  The Jaguars beat the Titans 38-17 at home last year.  The Titans are now 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Jacksonville and 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 division games overall.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Chargers/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers should be one of the more improved teams in the NFL this season.  They had a plethora of injuries last season that held them back during their 5-11 season.  But they lost 9 games by 8 points or less, so they had their chances in most games.  Philip Rivers has some healthy weapons in Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen entering 2017.  They are far and away the better offensive team in this matchup, and their defense isn't far off from the Broncos.  The Broncos even signed Brock Osweiler this offseason, which just goes to show how rough their QB situation really is.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games.  Los Angeles is 8-2-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Denver.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Cardinals/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are going to be an improved team this year.  They were statistically the best team in the NFL last year in terms of yard differential as they outgained opponents by 62 yards per game.  They had the 2nd-best defense and will be elite on D again in 2017.  The Lions trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of their 16 games last year yet still went 9-7.  They clearly weren't as good as their record.  Their defensive line is a mess heading into this game with 2 starters and 2 role players missing.  They are also missing a starting offensive lineman.  The Cardinals will win the battle in the trenches and thus win this game.  The Cardinals are 7-0 SU in the last 7 meetings, going 6-1 ATS in the process.  Take Arizona.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Baltimore Ravens +3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens will have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  That was on display in the preseason as they held their 4 opponents to a total of 32 points, or an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Bengals will be missing 2 starters on defense in Adam Jones and Vontaze Burfict, which are 2 of their best players.  The Ravens are underrated right now because Joe Flacco missed the preseason.  But he's a veteran who doesn't need to practice time to come in and flourish.  The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

6* Eagles/Redskins NFC East *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia -1

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went 1-6 in games decided by  touchdown or less last year in their 7-9 season.  They had the point differential of a team that should have been 9-7 or 10-6.  Carson Wentz and company will take a big step forward this year.  The Eagles have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and probably the 2nd-best defense in the NFC East.  The Redskins have probably the 3rd-worst offense in the NFC East after losing Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.  They have easily the worst defense in this division.  The Eagles want revenge after getting swept in the season series last year and losing 5 straight to the Redskins overall.  Philly is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 September games.  Take Philadelphia.

7* ATL/NE Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -3

The Key: The Patriots have been on a mission all season to take out their frustration on the NFL pertaining from Deflategate that led to Tom Brady's 4-game suspension.  All they've gone is taken out their frustration on opponents to the tune of a 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS record on the season.  Somehow they have been undervalued all season, and they continue to be in the Super Bowl as only 3-point favorites over the Falcons.  The Falcons haven't seen a defense as good as the Patriots, which leads the league in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game.  Both offenses are elite, but the difference in this game is going to be the Patriots' ability to get stops.  The Falcons give up 24.8 points and 367 yards per game on the season.  Tom Brady has only thrown two interceptions all season, and the team that has won the turnover battle has gone 37-4 in the Super Bowl.  The Patriots winning the turnover battle and having the better defense is the difference Sunday.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons.  Take New England.

7* GB/DAL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys pummeled the Green Bay Packers 30-16 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I see Green Bay having the same issues in the rematch, especially defensively.  The Cowboys went for 424 total yards and 191 rushing, absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually proves victorious, and that will be the formula for the Cowboys again just as it has been all season.  And the Packers have several key injuries at receiver and in their secondary.  The Cowboys are very healthy coming into this game off their bye.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Dallas.  Take Dallas.

7* SEA/ATL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -4.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have the best statistics in the NFL this season.  They outgain their opponents 6.7 to 5.6 yards per play on the year, which is the best differential in the league.  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first meeting against the Seahawks in Seattle, a 24-26 loss.  But I think Ryan and company get their revenge at home this time around.  The Seahawks have only won 3 road games all season while scoring just 16 points per game away from home.  Take Atlanta.

6* Giants/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have a huge edge on offense in this game.  They have scored at least 30 points in 4 consecutive games and are clicking at the right time.  Aaron Rodgers has 18 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 7 games.  The Giants do have the better defense, but their offense is so bad that I don't think they can take advantage of the Packers' defense.  After all, they've failed to reach 200 passing yards in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Giants get too much respect for what they've done in the playoffs in the past, but this is a different team, and Ben McAdoo is not nearly the coach that Tom Coughlin was before him, or Mike McCarthy on the other sideline.  The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home earlier this season and outgained them by 185 yards.  Rodgers had no problem against their defense, leading the Packers to over 400 yards of offense.  The Giants are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Lions/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -8

The Key: Matthew Stafford is 1-24 in his career on the road against a team that finished the season with a winning record.  He simply has to do too much for the Lions, who are below-average at basically every other position on the field, especially defensively.  They have allowed 73 points and over 800 yards of total offense in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Cowboys.  The Lions are 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and 9-2 against everyone else.  They have trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of 16 games this year.  I look for a big effort from the Seahawks here, who are 9-0 in their last 9 playoff home games.  They are 7-1 at home this season.  Anything short of a double-digit victory for the home side would be a shocker.  Take Seattle.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Oakland Raiders +2

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have a lot to play for this week.  They need to win to clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.  They also have an outside shot at getting the No. 1 seed if they win, but that would require a Patriots loss.  Either way, they want this victory.  Few backup quarterbacks can step into a situation and be as successful as Matt McGloin is going to be for the Raiders.  That's because he has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best duo at receiver in the league in Cooper and Crabtree, and plenty of help from the running game.  He has started in this league before and will be up to the challenge.  While the Raiders want this game badly, the Broncos could care less.  They were just eliminated from the playoffs last week with their ugly 33-10 loss to the Chiefs.  That came a week after another ugly 16-3 home loss to the Patriots.  They won their Super Bowl last year, and the offseason can't get here soon enough for these players.  The Broncos are going to be sitting some key starters on defense due to injury in S T.J. Ward, DE Derek Wolfe, LB Demarcus Ware and LB Brandon Marshall.  That's only going to make McGloin's job even easier.  The Raiders rushed for 218 yards in their 30-20 win over the Broncos earlier this season.  They should find plenty of success on the ground against a Denver defense that gives up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Oakland.

6* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4

The Key: Now that this line has dropped back down to -4, I like the price we are getting with the Kansas City Chiefs here.  They need to win this game and have the Raiders lose to the Broncos to get the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  They will be motivated to hold up their end of the bargain, just as they were last week when they beat the Broncos 33-10.  It was probably their most complete performance of the season as they outgained the Broncos by 238 yards in the victory.  Their offense is rolling behind Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce, and their defense is suffocating.  The Chargers just want this season to be over.  They have lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS coming in, including handing the Browns their first win of the season last week.  The Chiefs own the Chargers, winning 5 straight meetings in this series, including a 33-3 road victory in their last trip to San Diego.  The Chargers are dealing with more injuries to starters than any other team in the NFL right now.  They just don't have enough proven, healthy bodies to offer any kind of resistance here.  The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  San Diego is 0-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last 2 years.  The Chargers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Kansas City.

6* DET/DAL NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions will be the more motivated team tonight.  Win and they're in the playoffs as at least a wild card.  But if they lose this game, they would need to beat the Packers next week to get in.  I think they'd rather take care of their business now.  The Dallas Cowboys literally have nothing to play for in this game.  They have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC after events that took place over the weekend.  They will be playing their starters, but they won't be playing with the chip on their shoulders that they have for most of the season.  And the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall as they have been overvalued due to their fast start to the year.  Last week's 6-17 loss at New York was the first time the Lions have lost a game by more than a touchdown since midway through last season.  Matthew Stafford should be able to find plenty of success against a Dallas defense that allows 68.4% completions and 265 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Lions are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 2 seasons.  Jason Garrett is 11-26 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas.  Take Detroit.

7* DEN/KC AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +3.5

The Key: The Chiefs are nowhere near as good as their 10-4 record.  They have been outgained by an average of 88 yards per game in their last 7 contests.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential this season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors, but they have lost two of their recent home games to the Titans and Buccaneers.  The Chiefs are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread.  Denver clearly should have won the first meeting this season as it outgained KC by 191 yards.  Now the Broncos will have their revenge and keep their season alive in the rematch on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, which hasn't been as friendly to the Chiefs as most believe.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Redskins -3

The Key: I always look to back teams off a bad loss and fade teams off an emotional game.  In this case, we have the perfect situation.  The Redskins are coming off a bad home loss to the Panthers in which they lost by 11 as 7-point favorites.  Now everyone is writing them off, but we've seen them bounce back before.  They won four straight following their 0-2 start, and they have only lost two games in a row twice all season.  Those were to the Steelers/Cowboys and Cowboys/Cardinals, so it's understandable.  They aren't going to lose to the lowly 3-11 Bears this week as the Redskins need to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs.  The Bears will be deflated following back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Lions (by 3) and Packers (by 3).  They fought back from a 17-point deficit to tie it against the Packers last week, only to lose on a last-second field goal.  I don't think these players will be able to get back up off the mat from that crushing defeat against their biggest rivals.  I fully expect a no-show from the Bears here.  Washington is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.  Washington is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last 6 meetings with Chicago.  The Redskins are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Chicago.  Take Washington.

6* NY/PHI NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York Giants -1.5

The Key: The New York Giants have won 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming on the road to the Steelers, who are one of the best teams in the NFL.  They are on a mission to make the playoffs and can clinch their spot in the postseason with a win today.  That would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17, which would be huge for them to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 6 of their last 7 because of their awful defense, which has allowed at least 26 in six of those games.  The Giants are 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense and have held their last 2 opponents in the Cowboys and Lions to an average of 6.5 points per game.  I'll back the more motivated team here in the Giants with the much superior defense.  Take New York.

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -4

The Key: Matthew Stafford has a bum finger on his throwing hand that is going to limit what he's able to do against the Giants this week.  It's not going to help having such cold weather in the Meadowlands, either.  Stafford threw two interceptions against the Bears after injuring his finger last week.  He needs to be at full strength for the Lions to have any chance of moving the football on a Giants defense that only allows 18.8 points per game this year.  I look for Stafford to struggle, and the Lions don't have a running game to bail him out.  The Giants are 6-1 at home this season and will take care of business on their home turf Sunday.  Stafford has exactly one career road win over a team that finished with a winning record.  The Lions will get exposed for the frauds that they are this week.  Take New York.

7* LA/SEA NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Rams +16

The Key: Betting underdogs of this size in the NFL has been a very profitable move over the long haul.  I especially like doing it when we're talking about division games.  Even the worst teams get up for these division games, and I think the Rams will bring their best effort tonight.  They have a new coach in John Fassel and a better outlook now with Jeff Fisher gone.  The Rams have actually owned the Seahawks recently.  They've won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright as underdogs.  They won both meetings last year, and they won 9-3 at home this year over the Seahawks.  The Rams have the defense that will keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  I expect Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to make just enough plays to keep them competitive throughout.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Falcons/Rams NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +6.5

The Key: Back-to-back blowout road losses have the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Rams.  But they played in two tough environments against two great teams in the Saints and Patriots.  Now they return home where they have been much more competitive this season.  The Rams are only getting outscored by 3.0 points per game at home this year.  Their defense has held opponents to just 15.0 points and 273.7 yards per game at home.  And I think Jared Goff is primed for his best game yet against an Atlanta defense that allows 25.7 points and 392 yards per game on the road this year.  And the Falcons are missing two of their best defensive players in CB Desmont Trufant and DE Adrian Clayborn.  Offensively, they could be without both LT Jake Matthews and WR Mohamed Sanu, and WR Julio Jones is a game-time decision.  He has a leg injury where he was visibly hobbled and ineffective against the Chiefs last week.  It's hard to see him at 100% health a week later even if he plays.  Jeff Fisher is 14-4 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams.  Dan Quinn is 3-12 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Atlanta.  Quinn is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Falcons.  The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The Key: This is the Cleveland Browns' best chance to get a win this season.  They got a much-needed bye last week to recover.  Now they'll come back motivated to get that first win of the season against a division rival in the Cincinnati Bengals.  And the Bengals are in no shape to be laying 5.5 points on the road here.  They are without AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, arguably their two best weapons on offense.  The fact that they handled the Eagles at home last week has only added to the line value here, but the Eagles didn't show up for that game.  The Browns will show up this week, and they should have some new life now after the bye and with a new starting QB in Robert Griffin III, who started the season under center before getting hurt in his first game.  Bets under underdogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season are 96-54 ATS since 1983.  Bets on underdogs or pick revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more who are also winless on the season are 43-16 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland, and don't hesitate to sprinkle in a little money line bet for part of it.

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -1

The Key: Just imagine how excited the Tennessee Titans were over their bye last week.  They haven't been in contention this late in the season for a long time as they are in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead with the Colts and Texans.  They have had a bounce to their step all week leading up to this game, and they are primed for a huge performance at home against the Denver Broncos.  The Titans have been the best team in the AFC South in my opinion.  They have actually scored 11 more offensive touchdowns than they've given up to opposing offenses this year.  Marcus Mariota has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 8 consecutive games.  That's impressive when you consider the Titans are known for running the football, as they rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 141.5 yards per game.  They will be able to exploit the weakness of the Broncos' D, which is their 28th-ranked run defense allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The Broncos defense has to be fatigued after playing a combined 157 snaps over the past 2 weeks, which has to be some kind of NFL record.  Their offense continues to put them in bad spots week after week.  The Broncos have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  I just think the rest and motivational edges here for the Titans should warrant them being more than 1-point favorites.  They essentially just have to win the game to cover this week, and win they will do.  Take Tennessee.

7* IND/NYJ AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1.5

The Key: The biggest reason for the Colts having a better record to this point than the Jets is that they have played an easier schedule.  They have played the 6th-easiest slate of games this season, while the Jets have played the 5th-hardest.  I think we see the Jets rise to the occasion here on Monday Night Football as this may be the last time we get max effort out of them because they are on such a big stage.  The Colts have been outgained in 7 of their last 8 games overall and just aren't a very good team, mainly because of their defense that ranks 30th in the league.  And that defense has some huge injuries right now as LB Robert Mathis, S Clayton Geathers and CB Patrick Robinson are all expected to miss this game.  Not to mention CB Vontae Davis is questionable with a groin injury that has made him ineffective in recent weeks.  The Jets' defensive line has a huge advantage against the Colts' offensive line, which has given up 36 sacks this season.  The Jets have been a great late-season bet as they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  Take New York.

6* Redskins/Cardinals NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are the definition of a team that is better than their 4-6-1 record.  The Cardinals actually rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential while outgaining their opponents by 75.1 yards per game on average.  They are 4th in yards per play differential as well, bolstered by their league-best defensive yards per play of just 4.7 allowed.  The Cardinals will be giving it their all here as this is their last chance to turn their season around.  They may need to run the table to make the playoffs.  They are 2 games behind Washington for the final wild card spot in the NFC, and conveniently they play the Redskins here.  You'll see some fire from this team Sunday as I expect a blowout.  And this is a great matchup for the Cardinals because they are No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 against the pass, allowing just 195.1 passing yards per game.  Washington is a pass-heavy team, and Kirk Cousins will have one of his worst performances of the season Sunday.  Arizona is 41-22 ATS in its last 63 home games off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS against NFC East opponents as the coach of the Cardinals.  Take Arizona.

7* NFL Dog of the Year on Los Angeles Rams +13.5

The Key: The fact that the Los Angeles Rams got blown out by the Saints on the road last week has added value to this line.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after that blowout.  But they will show up Sunday to face a team the caliber of the Patriots.  And the Patriots just aren't the normal Patriots right now.  They are without Rob Gronkowski because of a season-ending injury, and Tom Brady missed a lot of practice this week with a knee injury.  The Patriots were lucky to win 22-17 over the Jets last week, and they lost their last home game to the Seahawks.  They aren't going to win this game by 2 touchdowns, so they shouldn't be 13.5-point favorites in their current state.  After all, the Patriots are just 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games as double-digit favorites.  And Jeff Fisher has been dominant in the underdog role.  Fisher is 14-3 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams, and they're coming back to actually win these games 18.9 to 16.1 on average.  Take Los Angeles.

6* DAL/MIN Thursday NFL *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings continue to get too much respect from the books.  They got off to a 5-0 start but were a flawed team.  Now their true colors have shown during a 1-5 slide since.  The Vikings cannot move the football because they have no running game and their offensive line is so banged up that it's one of the worst in the NFL.  The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the NFL and the best rushing attack.  They can move the football on this Minnesota defense.  This is a very small number for them to have to cover here in what is a complete mismatch on paper.  The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in all games this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 years.  Take Dallas.

7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on San Diego Chargers -2.5

The Key: The Houston Texans are playing on a short week after returning from Mexico City and their Monday Night Football game against the Oakland Raiders.  Now they'll be up against a San Diego Chargers team that is coming off their bye week and desperate for a win.  Given this awful spot for the Texans and great one for the Chargers, I think the road team gets the job done today.  The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Texans.  Take San Diego.

7* WAS/DAL NFC East Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: The Washington Redskins will be out for revenge from their 23-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 2.  That was the start of a 9-game winning streak both straight up and ATS for the Cowboys.  They are getting way too much respect from the books now as the Redskins were 3-point favorites in that first game, and now they're 7-point dogs in the rematch, a whopping 10-point swing.  The Redskins continue flying under the radar as they've gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.  Statistically these teams are very similar as the Redskins outgain teams by 48 yards per game and 0.4 per play while the Cowboys outgain teams by 65 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Dallas, so clearly the Cowboys don't have much of a home-field advantage in this series at all.  Take Washington.

6* Dolphins/Rams Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +1

The Key: The Dolphins are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after winning each of their last 4 games.  But those are the only 4 games where they have had a completely healthy, intact starting 5 offensive line.  They were down a few starters before that run, and now they'll be down a few starters again this week as both C Mike Pouncey and T Branden Albert are expected to miss this game.  That's bad news for the Dolphins, who will be up against arguably the best defensive line in the league in the Rams.  Jared Goff will give the Rams' offense a spark this week as he can't be any worse than Case Keenum was.  And the Dolphins stayed out West after playing the Chargers last week and probably haven't been all that focused leading up to this contest with so many distractions.  Miami is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals remain one of the best teams in the NFL.  Just look at the numbers they have put up this season.  They are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they average 382.0 yards per game on offense and only give up 295.2 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by 86.8 yards per game.  They face a Minnesota Vikings team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games overall with no signs of turning it around soon due to an offense that ranks as the worst in the NFL, averaging just 302.3 yards per game.  This is a mismatch on paper and it will be a mismatch on the field, too.  Take Arizona.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Key: The Detroit Lions cannot be trusted to lay this kind of weight against anyone in the NFL.  They may be 5-4 this season, but all 5 wins have come by 6 points or less.  The only 6-point win came in overtime against the Vikings as the other 4 wins came by 4 points or fewer.  Matthew Stafford has had plenty of late-game heroics to save this team, masking a defense that ranks 23rd in giving up 366.3 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Jaguars have been better than their record, and they have the league's 8th-ranked defense in yielding 327.7 yards per game and 5.0 per play.  They just have to quit turning the ball over, which has been their biggest problem.  They are actually outgaining teams by 15.6 yards per game this season, while the Lions are getting outgained by 28.5 yards per game.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent, winning 25% or fewer of their games playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 27-50 ATS in their last 77 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NO/CAR Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina Panthers -3

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight meetings with New Orleans by an average of 13 points per game before losing 38-41 to them on the road earlier this season.  I think they get their revenge here Thursday night to hold on to slim hopes of making the playoffs.  This is the make-or-break game for the Panthers, who blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs last week and lost despite dominating that game.  Bets on favorites revenging a loss by 7 points or less while also coming off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Carolina.

7* MNF Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals PK

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week after tying the Washington Redskins in London.  They are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  Tyler Eiffert returned against the Redskins, and he and AJ Green both had over 100 yards receiving.  This Bengals' offense should thrive now with Eiffert back in the fold because they already have a strong running game.  The Giants cannot say the same as they average just 68 rushing yards per game.  The Giants have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  Their 3-game winning streak comes to an end tonight against the superior Bengals.  Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Cowboys/Steelers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing with a sense of urgency today.  They have lost 3 straight games coming in, and Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been healthy for any of them.  But now Roethlisberger should be closer to full strength at today against the Dallas Cowboys in a game the Steelers are looking at like a must-win.  After all, the Steelers are 7-0 in Roethlisberger's last 7 home starts.  The Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS this season and getting too much respect from oddsmakers now.  It's time to fade them.  Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS off 3 or more straight ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: The Packers are just .500 at this late in the season for the first time since Aaron Rodgers' rookie year.  Off two straight losses, it's clear that the Packers will be playing with a sense of urgency.  Tennessee's Nissan Stadium will be turned into Lambeau Field South today as the Titans just have no home-field advantage at all.  The only team they can beat at home is the Jaguars over the past couple seasons.  Oh yeah, they also beat the winless Browns 28-26 earlier this season at home.  The Titans are 12-36-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in home games over the past 3 seasons alone, losing by an average of 8.1 points per game.  The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Eagles +1.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles will be playing with a sense of urgency today.  After their 3-0 start, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games by a touchdown or less, and all 4 losses were on the road.  So they have had a chance to win every game they've played this season, but they have just come up short in 50/50 games.  At home though, there has been no such thing as a 50/50 game for the Eagles.  They have absolutely dominated at home this season, going 3-0 while winning by an average of 20.3 points per game.  They are holding opponents to just 7.7 points per game in their 3 home contests, which includes a 34-3 win over the Steelers.  Look for the Eagles to right the ship today.  The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Browns/Ravens AFC North Game of the Month on Cleveland +8

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens can't be trusted to lay this kind of weight.  Not when they haven't blown anyone out over the past two seasons.  The Ravens haven't won a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 24 games.  They have been the kings of close games as 22 of those 24 games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Plus, the Ravens are coming off a huge win over the rival Steelers on Sunday, so they could come out flat here against the Browns.  The Browns have at least been competitive in the majority of their games, and they will be again here tonight against the offensively-challenged Ravens.  The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

7* Bills/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +6.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 4-4 this season and catching too many points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  They have only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, and that was last week against the New England Patriots, who just cannot be stopped right now.  But the Bills get back LeSean McCoy this week and add in Percy Harvin.  Seattle is 4-2-1 this season, but two of its wins came by exactly 2 points at home against the Dolphins and Falcons.  The Seahawks are broken offensively.  They rank 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense.  Their defense is missing DE Martellus Bennett and S Kam Chancellor as well.  The Bills are averaging 29.3 points per game in their last 7 games since changing offensive coordinators.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses over the past 3 seasons, coming back to win by 14.6 points per game.  Take Buffalo.

6* Panthers/Rams NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are poised to make a run.  They opened the season 1-5 but were clearly better than their record as they lost a few games they obviously shouldn't have.  But then they had their bye week, and they returned with a dominant 30-20 home win over the Cardinals.  Now they go on the road against a Los Angeles Rams team that simply isn't very good.  The Rams have lost three straight coming in.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NFL as they average just 17.1 points and 308 yards per game.  The Panthers average 27.3 points and 388 yards per game, and some of that has even been without Cam Newton due to injury.  But they just put up 30 points on a very good Arizona defense last week and even had to settle for three field goals.  Newton and Jonathan Stewart are back now and rushed for 141 yards on Arizona last week.  The Rams love to run the ball with Todd Gurley, but the Panthers only give up 80 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Carolina.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants -3

The Key: The New York Giants are showing great value as 3-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles today.  They should be much bigger favorites here.  They enter on a 2-game winning streak and are coming off their bye week to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 3 of their last 4 and just aren't playing well right now.  They are also coming off an overtime game against the Cowboys, and it's going to be tough to bounce back from that against a Giants team off their bye.  The Giants are 2-1 at home this season and outgaining teams by 76 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and getting outgained by 81 yards per game.  This is a very short price for the Giants at home given the situation.  Take New York.

7* ATL/TB Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play this season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play on the year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.  I think this is an absolute mismatch, especially with the Bucs' top 3 running backs out due to injury.  The Oakland Raiders put up 626 yards of offense on the Bucs last week.  The Bucs' defense was on the field for a long time in the OT loss, which works against them on this short week.  The Falcons have the league's top scoring offense and total offense and should shred the Bucs just as the Raiders did.  Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in its last 62 home games, and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season.  Take Atlanta.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2

The Key: This is the best chance for the Browns to win this season.  I think they get that first victory here against the awful New York Jets.  I just don't like the Jets' locker room right now after Ryan Fitzpatrick called out coaches and management for benching him.  Meanwhile, Hue Jackson has the Browns playing hard every week.  And now Josh McCown, their best quarterback, returns to the lineup this week.  He will make a big difference for this team and I upgrade the Browns a couple points with him at QB for sure.  The Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite under Todd Bowles, losing three of those games outright.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are coming off their bye week and are in must-win mode now.  They are just 1-5 on the season, though I still believe they are one of the best teams in the NFL, and that will show on Sunday.  The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an overtime tie against the Seahawks and are clearly not in the best shape right now mentally and physically after that contest.  The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road game.  Cam Newton is 7-1 ATS in his last 8 home starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 9 points or fewer in their previous game.  Take Carolina.

7* Jags/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +3.5

The Key: Both of the Jaguars' wins this season have come on the road.  One was against the Colts in London in a game they dominated.  That's the same Colts team that just beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee last week.  The Titans are awful at home as they are 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points over the Browns.  They are 2-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons and 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The Titans are also 1-12 ATS in their last 13 division games.  The Jags give up just 4.9 yards per play on defense while the Titans allow 5.9 yards per play.  I'll back the better defense here catching 3.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Chargers/Falcons Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Diego +6.5

The Key: All four of San Diego's losses this season have come by 6 points or less, so that fact alone shows that the Chargers are undervalued.  The Falcons have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, so they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now.  Keep in mind that all 5 of those wins were as underdogs, but now the Falcons are 6.5-point favorites over the Chargers.  That's important because the Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorites, while the Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Chargers also get extra time to prepare for this game after beating the Broncos 21-13 last Thursday.  Take San Diego.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed for a big performance Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.  They are coming off their bye week following a 17-14 win at Carolina that could have turned their season around.  Now they get to face the lowly 49ers, who have just kept getting crushed week after week.  The 49ers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, losing all five games by at least 7 points, and losing four times by at least 12 points.  Their defense just gave up 491 total yards, including 312 rushing, in a 16-45 loss at Buffalo last week.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game over the past 3 seasons.  It is losing by 12.3 points per game on average.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins had their starting five offensive linemen for the first time last week against Pittsburgh.  That's why it is no surprise that they put forth their best performance of the season offensively.  They beat the Steelers 30-15 behind 474 yards of total offense, including 222 rushing.  Their defense also played very well, limiting the Steelers to just 297 total yards and forcing two turnovers.  But the Dolphins aren't getting any love from oddsmakers this week as home underdogs to the Bills, who are getting too much respect due to winning four straight games coming in.  They beat the Cardinals thanks to 5 turnovers from Arizona, the Patriots with 3rd-string QB Jacoby Brissett, the Rams without 3 of their top defensive linemen, and the hapless 49ers and Colin Kaepernick.  So, they've simply benefited from an easy schedule, but now they face a Dolphins team that is as healthy as they've been all season.  Buffalo is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The Bills are expected to be without two key players in RB LeSean McCoy and DT Marcell Dareus, who are both doubtful.  Rex Ryan is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good rushing teams who average 4.5 or more yards per carry as a head coach.  Take Miami.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +7.5

The Key: There's no way the Packers should be this big of favorites when you consider the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They will be without their top 3 cornerbacks, and Eddy Lacy and James Starks are both expected to miss this game.  It's no wonder they lost to the Cowboys by 14 points Sunday with all the guys they were missing.  And the Packers haven't beaten anyone by more than 7 points this season.  The Bears are better than their 1-5 record as they are outgaining teams by 34 yards per game and have outgained their last 3 opponents by 343 combined yards.  Brian Hoyer has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 straight games.  He will have a big day against this beat-up Packers' secondary, and the Bears will have a great shot to pull off the upset because of it.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including a 17-13 outright win as 7.5-point road dogs by the Bears last season.  Take Chicago.

7* Jets/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -7

The Key: The New York Jets are a mess right now.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while getting outscored a combined 33-82 in the process.  The Arizona Cardinals are just 2-3, but they are clearly better than their record.  The Cardinals are outgaining teams by 55 yards per game and outscoring them by nearly 5 points per game.  The Jets are getting outgained by 19 yards per game and getting outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  New Yoprk has all kinds of injury problems too.  LB David Harris is doubtful, WR Eric Decker is out, and CB Darrelle Revis, C Nick Mangold and DE Sheldon Richardson are all questionable.  Carson Palmer makes his return from a concussion tonight, and the Cardinals are extra rested after playing last Thursday.  Without Decker, Arizona can put Patrick Peterson on Brandon Marshall, and the Jets are really going to have a hard time moving the football tonight.  Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 43-17 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona.

7* Cowboys/Packers NFC Game of the Month on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Packers are outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game in the 1st half of their last 17 home games.  They still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Dallas Cowboys will get a reality check today.  Dak Prescott is going to have to do more than he's used to today, as he has thrown just 5% of his passes more than 20 yards down field.  He's doing the dink and dunk thing well, but he'll be forced to play from behind in this game.  The Packers will stop the run as they rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up only 43 yards per game and 2 yards per carry.  That will be the difference.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Key: I think the Miami Dolphins have a legitimate chance to pull the upset today.  It will be the first time all season that center Pouncey and tackle Albert have played together, so their offensive line is getting healthy.  Meanwhile, the Steelers are without two of their best defenders in Ryan Shazier and Cam Heyward.  After back-to-back blowout home wins, the Steelers are overvalued right now.  The last time they were on the road they lost 34-3 to the Eagles.  The Dolphins are playing for their season right now after a 1-4 start and will put up a big fight, likely pulling off the upset.  Take Miami.

6* 49ers/Bills Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  Now they are laying more than a touchdown at home to the 49ers.  If not for turnovers, the 49ers would have beaten the Cardinals last Thursday.  And now they've had some extra time to prepare for this game and get Colin Kaepernick ready to play quarterback.  They have the element of surprise with him, which I think will be tough for the Bills to deal with.  Take San Francisco.

7* DEN/SD Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +3

The Key: The San Diego Chargers are the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They have held a lead for more minutes than any other team in the league this season.  However, they are 1-4 with their four losses all coming by 4 points or less.  But now the Chargers' season is on the line here against the Broncos.  They can't afford to fall behind any further in the AFC West standings if they are going to make a run.  So with their backs against the wall here at home, I'll back them as 3-point home dogs.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a division loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West foes.  Take San Diego.

6* Bills/Rams Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +2.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

7* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +3.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

6* Titans/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +3

The Key: No analysis Sunday

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have committed 5 turnovers each in their last 2 games to give away games against the Bills and Rams.  Look for them to shore that up and get a big win here on Thursday night against the lowly San Francisco 49ers.  The Cardinals aren't broken as they rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential at plus-68.5 yards per game.  The 49ers are 1-3 as well, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They rank 31st in yardage differential at negative-97.2 yards per game.  They just lost NaVorro Bowman to a season-ending injury, and their defense was already terrible in allowing 390 yards per game on the season.  Drew Stanton, even though he's a backup, should light up this 49ers defense.  And look for Bruce Arians to get stud RB David Johnson going, especially with run-stopper Bowman out.  The 49ers give up 140 rushing yards per game this season.  San Francisco is 1-11 ATS in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals swept the season series last year in winning by a combined 66-20 score over the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

7* Giants/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings aren't as good as their 3-0 record would suggest.  They are getting outgained by 29.7 yards per game on the season, and their offense is still terrible.  Their defense is the reason they are 3-0 as they have gotten several non-offensive touchdowns already.  The Giants probably should be the team that is 3-0 instead of 2-1.  They are outgaining teams by 57 yards per game.  Each of the Giants' first three games have been decided by 3 points or less.  This one is likely to go down to the wire as well, so the 4 points could come into play.  The Vikings aren't going to keep forcing turnovers at this rate as they are +8 in that department.  The Giants aren't going to keep losing the turnover battle as they are -6 in turnovers this season.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Take New York.

6* Cowboys/49ers NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +1

The Key: There's a reason this line was Cowboys -3 and has moved down to Cowboys -1.  The big money is on the 49ers, and I agree that it should be.  They were blown out on the road the last two weeks by two of the best teams in the NFL in the Panthers and Seahawks.  But now they come back home, where they previously beat the Rams 28-0 in Week 1.  The Cowboys are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers because they blew out a hapless Bears team on Sunday Night Football last week.  Dez Bryant is banged up, and I look for Dak Prescott to struggle on the road here against the best defense he has faced since losing to the Giants in Week 1.  Take San Francisco.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on New York Jets +1.5

The Key: The New York Jets committed 8 turnovers last week, which was the only reason they lost 24-3 to the Chiefs.  They were still in the game for the majority of it despite the turnovers.  I think they come back home this week and pull off the upset against the Seattle Seahawks, who have a banged-up Russell Wilson at quarterback.  Wilson did not play well in his only road game at Los Angeles, losing 9-3 to the Rams.  Wilson hurt his knee against the 49ers last week and was pulled from the game.  Without his mobility, he's going to struggle against a Jets defensive line that is one of the best in the business.  Take New York.

7* Dolphins/Bengals AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +8

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting way too much respect from the books as 8-point favorites here over the Miami Dolphins.  I think this game will go right down to the wire, so this is a really nice price for the Dolphins.  We've already seen the Dolphins go on the road and nearly beat both the Seahawks (lost by 2) and Patriots (lost by 7).  They can certainly stay within a touchdown of these Bengals, who have not fared well in losses to the Steelers and Broncos the past two weeks.  The Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Take Miami.

6* Chargers/Colts AFC *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis PK

The Key: The Colts simply cannot afford to fall to 0-3 on the season if they want to get back to the playoffs.  Look for them to come out hungry at home today against the Chargers.  They easily could be 2-0.  They had a late lead against the Lions, but lost 35-39.  They also had the Broncos on the ropes before giving up a defensive touchdown late to lose 20-34.  I'm not ready to buy the Chargers being one of the better teams in the AFC just because they beat the Jaguars and took the Chiefs to overtime, two teams who have struggled in the early going.  The Chargers are without top receiver Keenan Allen and top RB pass-catcher Danny Woodhead, and those injuries will come back to bite them sooner rather than later.  TE Antonio Gates is also questionable for this one.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.  The Colts are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up loss.  The Colts are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 home games.  Take Indianapolis.

6* Rams/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge win over the Seahawks, but only because their defense came through in a big way.  Teams are just 34-58 ATS the week after playing the Seahawks since Pete Carroll took over.  The Rams have still scored just 9 points on the season, and their offense won't be much better this week.  The Bucs will be hungry to play in their first home game, especially after a 7-40 loss to the Cardinals last week.  They turned the ball over five times to let the game get away from them.  Look for them to preach ball security in this one.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games off a division win, 0-6 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, and 14-30 ATS as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 range.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Tennessee Titans +1.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans could be 2-0 right now.  They lost to the Vikings in Week 1 only after blowing a 10-0 lead and giving up two defensive touchdowns in the second half.  They came back with a solid win at Detroit last week.  The NFL is about defense, and the Titans clearly have the better one here.  Their defense has technically only allowed 23 points all season.  Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up 35 points and 517 total yards per game.  This is an early kick out East for the Raiders, which is a tough spot for a West Coast team.  Take Tennessee.

7* Texans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +1

The Key: The injuries the Patriots are dealing with right now puts them at an extreme disadvantage.  I don't trust rookie Jacoby Brissett to be able to do much offensively as he has only 2.5 days to prepare for this game.  Plus, he'll be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week in the Texans.  I'll side with that defense and Brock Osweiler and company to come away with a win here.  Bill O'Brien will have his team focused because he knows what the Patriots are capable of with their backs against the wall, as he previously coached there.  Take Houston.

7* Eagles/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3

The Key: The Chicago Bears need a win to avoid starting 0-2.  They held their own against the Texans last week, but couldn't hold on to a 14-10 halftime lead as they lost 23-14.  Look for them to be hungry here at home on a big stage on Monday Night Football.  The Eagles are getting too much respect now after beating the Cleveland Browns 29-10 in their opener.  They looked good, but this will be a different challenge for rookie QB Carson Wentz in his first start in an NFL road game.  I don't expect him to handle it very well.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September.  Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Week 2 games.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago.

6* Packers/Vikings NFC North *BAILOUT* on Green Bay -2

The Key: The Packers got their offense going in a 27-23 win at Jacksonville last week.  They will once again be one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL now that Jordy Nelson is back.  He wasted no time finding the end zone in his first game back from injury last week.  The Vikings don't  have the firepower to keep up with the Packers.  Their offense only managed 301 yards against the Titans last week and 4 field goals, getting held out of the end zone.  Their defense scored both of their touchdowns.  Adrian Peterson went for just 31 yards on 19 carries.  The Packers held the Jaguars to 48 rushing yards on 26 carries.  They will stop AP and make Sam Bradford try and beat them, and I don't think he will be able to in his 1st start.  CB Xavier Rhodes is a big loss for the Vikings this week because he is their top cover corner.  Even Marcus Mariota threw for 271 yards and a couple TDs against the Vikings last week.  Rodgers will have a big game here and lead the Packers to victory as they avenge their Week 17 loss to the Vikings last year.  Take Green Bay.

6* Colts/Broncos AFC *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a bad 39-35 loss to the Lions last week, which has them undervalued this week.  They were without 3 of their top cornerbacks, and Matthew Stafford took advantage by guiding the Lions to 39 points.  But this is a better matchup for the Colts this week.  The Broncos are limited in the passing game with Trevor Siemien.  He didn't do much against the Panthers in their opener.  The Broncos won that game with defense and their running game.  That was an emotional win for Denver, and now it will be in a letdown spot here.  They go from being 3-point underdogs to the Panthers to 7-point favorites against the Colts.  I don't believe there is 10 points difference between the Colts and Panthers on a neutral field, so you can see why I believe there is some value here.  Andrew Luck looked like his old self against Detroit, throwing for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception.  The Colts are 8-1 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Broncos, including 3-1 in their 4 meetings with Luck at QB.  I just think 7 points is too much here.  Take Indianapolis.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Key: This is one of the most heated rivalries in sports between the Steelers and Bengals.  I'll gladly side with the home team only laying a field goal.  The Steelers dominated the Redskins 38-16 on the road, while the Bengals squeaked by the Jets 23-22 and were very fortunate to win.  The Steelers clearly have plenty of depth to make up for the loss of some key players, while the Bengals do not.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, and they are without their TD leader from a year ago in TE Tyler Eifert, who scored 13 touchdowns for them.  The Steelers won their final two meetings of the season with the Bengals last year, both on the road and one in the playoffs.  They have now won 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss coming 16-10 in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 356-296 and should have won, but Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions and was playing injured.  The Steelers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Jets/Bills AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: Injuries to the Bills have them way less than full strength right now.  They had key rookies in DE Shaq Lawson and LB Reggie Ragland who are out and were expected to play significant roles this season.  They are also without LB Ik Enempkpali, starting LT Cordy Glenn and their best DT in Marcell Dareus.  Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is far from 100%.  I just believe the Jets are primed to win this game today not only because of all the injuries, but because they want revenge from losing 5 straight to the Bills last year, including a loss in Week 17 that kept them out of the playoffs.  Take New York.

7* Rams/49ers Monday Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3

The Key: This will finally be the year the Los Angeles Rams make a playoff push.  They have been stockpiling talent for the last few years, and they now actually have some of the best young talent in the NFL.  Look for it to come to fruition in 2016, starting with Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, who will battle with the Cleveland Browns for worst team in the NFL honors.  The Rams' only potential weakness is at QB, but Case Keenum is a batter QB than Blaine Gabbert, and the 49ers have holes everywhere on both side of the ball due to poor management.  Only having to lay a field goal with the vastly superior team tonight is a nice discount.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NFL Dog of the Week on Miami Dolphins +10.5

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are showing good value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Seahawks remain a public team in 2016 and are getting the majority of the action, pushing this line higher than it should be.  The Dolphins will be better in 2016 under the guidance of new head coach Adam Gase.  He worked wonders with Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, and he'll have the same effect on Ryan Tannehill and get the most out of him in 2016.  The defense features one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and they'll get after Russell Wilson and the terrible Seattle O-line.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Miami.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are the worst team in the NFL, so we'll take advantage Sunday and fade them as short road underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles.  This line was actually -7 when the Eagles had Sam Bradford, and now it's -3.5 with Carson Wentz starting.  There's simply not that much difference between those two quarterbacks to warrant that big of a move.  The Browns went 1-7 on the road last season and lost by an average of 12.8 points per game.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFL Game of the Week on New York Jets +1

The Key: Home-field advantage has been huge between the Bengals and Jets.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Jets have won 6 straight home meetings with the Bengals as well. They should not be underdogs Sunday.  Take New York.

7* CAR/DEN NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver Broncos +3

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champ is 14-2 SU in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Super Bowl loser from the previous year is only 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS over the past 16 seasons as well.  I feel that the price is right to back the Broncos as home underdogs here Thursday night.  Carolina is not 6 points better on a neutral field, which is what this line would indicate.  The Broncos didn't lose a whole lot from last year, and it's not like Peyton Manning did much for this team.  They still have the best defense in the NFL and a solid running game, along with 2 elite receivers on the outside.  I think they have enough to win tonight and will be inspired, just almost all of the previous year's Super Bowl winners have been.  Take Denver.

7* Broncos/Panthers Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6

The Key: The betting public and all of the money has been pouring in on the Carolina Panthers over the past two weeks.  This line opened at -3.5 at most books and has been driven up to +6 in some places.  There's no question that the Panthers are overvalued coming in as my numbers indicate that they should only be 3-point favorites on a neutral field over the Broncos.  That means we are getting 3 points of value here with the Broncos.  I'll gladly support Denver given it has the best defense in the NFL and one that will slow down this Carolina offense.  Oddsmakers are expecting a pretty low-scoring game here, too, and so am I, which favors getting 6 points with the dog in what is likely to be a close game from start to finish.  Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL, period.  They should not be underdogs to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.  For starters, the Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 14.0 points per game.  They actually play better on the road because they use a silent count offensively.  The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in total offense and 5th in total defense.  They are 2nd in passing offense at 289 yards per game.  Their passing attack will be the difference in this one because Carolina does not defend the pass well.  The Panthers have a make-shift secondary now with all of the injuries they have suffered, and they have two of the worst safeties in the NFL.  Carson Palmer and company will take advantage of a Carolina defense that has allowed 310 passing yards per game in its last 3 contests.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Take Arizona.

6* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Denver +3

The Key: The Broncos are home underdogs to the New England Patriots when they shouldn't be.  We're getting some great value here with the Broncos catching a full field goal at home.  After all, the home team has dominated this series.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Broncos beat the Patriots 30-24 at home earlier this season in overtime.  But that game never should have went to OT as the Broncos outgained the Patriots 433 to 301 and by 132 total yards.  The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL and that defense will lead them to the Super Bowl.  Don't underestimate Peyton Manning, either, as he had a better game against the Steelers than his numbers showed due to 7 dropped passes from his receivers.  The Broncos have the better running game as well.  I'll side with the better defense, the better running game, and home-field advantage in this one.  Take Denver.

6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle +2.5

The Key: Seattle did not look good against Minnesota, but that had everything to do with the below zero temperatures.  The weather is expected to be great in Carolina this weekend, so look for Russell Wilson to get back on track.  All he's done is throw 25 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in his last 8 games overall.  Now he gets to go up against a Carolina secondary that is decimated by injuries right now.  He'll be chomping at the bit at a chance at revenge on Carolina, which overcame a 9-point deficit in the final 4 minutes to beat the Seahawks 27-23 in Seattle in their first meeting this year.  That was a rare win for Carolina in this series.  The Seahawks are still 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Panthers.  They had held Carolina to just 11.8 points per game in their previous 5 meetings.  The Seahawks have been ridiculous defensively on the road of late, giving up just 7.2 points per game in their last 6 road games.  They have only allowed one touchdown to opposing offenses in those 6 road games.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. teams who commit 1 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Take Seattle.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay +7

The Key: It's so tough to beat a team like the Packers twice in the same season.  That's what the Cardinals are tasked with doing in the NFC Divisional Round.  They just crushed the Packers 38-8 in Week 16, but I think that result has them laying too many points here in the rematch.  The Packers figured something out against the Redskins that worked, which was the hurry-up offense.  It led to a 35-7 run by the Packers to close out that game, and I think it's going to work against the Cardinals as well.  The Packers are healthier along the offensive line now than they were when they played the Cardinals three weeks ago.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game, but he won't be now with improved O-line play and the help of the hurry-up offense.  The Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, and they're only outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on average in those six contests.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.  Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Green Bay.

6* Chiefs/Patriots AFC *CA$H COW* on New England -5

The Key: The two weeks off have done the Patriots wonders.  They did not finish the season the way they wanted to, but a lot of that had to do with injuries.  I think that poor finish has them actually undervalued at home for once as only 5-point favorites over the Chiefs.  The Chiefs are obviously overvalued right now because they have won 11 straight games coming in.  But they've only beaten 3 playoff teams during this 11-game winning streak.  One was Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, one was Denver in a game Peyton Manning got injured, and another was Houston and the worthless Brian Hoyer, who committed five turnovers on his own.  The Chiefs have been winning the turnover battle, which has been the key to their success.  But now they must face a team that doesn't turn it over in the Patriots, and they aren't going to have this game go their way as a result.  The Patriots have only committed 14 turnovers in 16 games this year.  Julian Edelman, Sebastian Volmer, Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are all expected to be ready to go this week thanks to the extra time off.  Meanwhile, Kansas City could be without its top target in Jeremy Maclin, who suffered a nasty high ankle sprain in the win over Houston.  The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.  The Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a loss.  The Patriots are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take New England.

7* Packers/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +1

The Key: The Washington Redskins won one of the worst divisions in football in the NFC East.  They played 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs and only 2 teams that did, and they were blown out by 28 points by Carolina and by 17 points by New England in those two contests.  The Packers played 7 playoff teams this season to compare, yet still managed to win 10 games.  Yes, they have lost their last 2 games coming in, but that is why they are showing good value here as underdogs to the Redskins.  They are the better team, and they will prove that on the field Sunday.  The Redskins have actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games and rank 23rd in yardage differential (-26.8 yards/game) on the season.  The Packers are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with the Redskins, outscoring them by 15.0 points per game.  Take Green Bay.