Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

6* Seahawks/Vikings NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -4

The Key: Recent meetings between the Seahawks and Vikings have been dominated by Seattle, and I see no reason that's going to change Sunday.  The Seahawks have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Vikings, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game in the process.  That includes the 38-7 win at Minnesota earlier this season in which the Seahawks outgained the Vikings by a whopping 308 total yards.  The offense put up 433 while the defense limited the Vikings to just 125.  The Seahawks have given up 13 or fewer points in four of their last five games and are allowing only 11.0 points per game over this stretch.  Russell Wilson has thrown 24 touchdowns and only one interception in his last 7 games, putting up video game-like numbers.  The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS when they have won 4 of their last 5 games coming in over the last 2 years.  Take Seattle.

7* Chiefs/Texans Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City -3

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs have won a franchise-record 10 consecutive games and are ready to end a 22-year streak without a playoff victory.  They have done so behind a defense that is giving up just 12.8 points per game during this winning streak.  They have also had a plus-16 turnover differential during it.  Considering they play the Texans, a team that has only beaten one playoff team all season, I like their chances of end this playoff drought.  When the Chiefs have gone under the total in two straight games coming in, they have gone 8-0 ATS and are winning these games by 16.4 points per game.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Bucs +10.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to end their season on a high note with an upset win over division rival Carolina.  This team has been great under Jameis Winston in his first year, but the record unfortunately hasn't reflected that.  The numbers say that the Bucs are one of the better teams in the NFL, and I trust the numbers here.  The Panthers have gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall and are once again laying too many points to their opponent this week.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Bengals/Broncos MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4

The Key: The Denver Broncos rank 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense and 1st in passing defense.  This is simply the most dominant defense I've seen in a long time.  It will be the difference in why the Broncos win this game.  AJ McCarron will be making just his second start, and after an uninspiring effort against a bad 49ers defense last week, he will be awful against the league's top defense this week in the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler has played well this season and is the better quarterback here on an offense that has more potential than the Bengals.  I think he'll make enough plays and not turn the ball over, which will be enough for the Broncos to win this game by 4-plus points.  Bets on favorites off a road loss who are winning between 60% and 75% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Broncos are 8-0 ATS the game after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.  Take Denver.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +5.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are playing up to their potential again.  They have won three straight and Mike McCarthy just took over the play-calling two weeks ago.  They put up 435 yards and 28 points against the Cowboys and 30 points against the Raiders in their last two contests with McCarthy making the decisions.  He is a master with the screen game, and those screen plays are going to be huge against this aggressive Cardinals defense that is vulnerable.  We saw it two weeks ago against the Vikings, who nearly took them to OT in Arizona.  They utilized the screen game and their tight ends to perfection.  Green Bay's defense is playing well enough to slow down the Cardinals.  The Packers are giving up just 16.3 points per game over their last 6 contests.  Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  This one should go right down to the wire, so this +5.5 spread is giving us plenty of value on the Packers.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFL *BLOWOUT* Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been one of the better teams in the NFL in terms of yardage differential.  They rank 7th in that category as they are outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game.  The other top 9 teams in yardage differential are all in the playoffs as of today.  Look for the Bucs to win in the box score and on the scoreboard against a Bears team that has lost three straight, including a 21-point loss to the Vikings last week.  The Bucs last played on Thursday so they have had three extra days of rest heading into this game than the Bears.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 30-plus points in its previous game.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* NFL Dog of the Week on San Francisco 49ers +9

The Key: The Detroit Lions shouldn't be favored this heavily against anyone.  They are coming off a win on Monday Night Football.  Not only does that have them overvalued, it also has them playing on a short week here and in a letdown spot against the 49ers.  It will be hard for them to get up for the 49ers after playing on the bright lights of MNF.  The 49ers have beaten the Vikings and Bears outright as underdogs within the NFC North already this year, and they're certainly capable of hanging with the Lions here.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons.  The Lions are 6-20-3 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take San Francisco.

7* Chargers/Raiders TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +5

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have no business being this heavily favored against anyone.  Especially not against a division rival like the Chargers, who have pretty much owned them in the past.  The Chargers have outgained the Raiders in 5 straight meetings.  The only reason the Raiders beat them in the first meeting this year is because they were coming off their bye, while the Chargers were in a hangover spot off their tough loss to the Packers the previous week.  The Chargers are allowing just 13.7 points and 284 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  They are 4th in the NFL in passing offense at 294 yards per game and should have plenty of success through the air against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th against the pass.  The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take San Diego.

7* Lions/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions were shell-shocked when they blew their game against the Packers two weeks ago and lost on a hail mary to end their 3-game winning streak.  That loss essentially eliminated them from playoff contention, and they proceeded to lay an egg against St. Louis on the road last week to fall to 4-9.  I don't expect them to show up tonight, either.  The Saints have proven that they're not going to quit.  Even after a disheartening 38-41 home loss to the Panthers in Week 13, the Saints came back in Week 14 and won outright as 6-point road dogs 24-17 at Tampa Bay.  They will show up tonight, especially in front of their home fans on the MNF stage.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, winning four of them.  They have averaged 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game in those five meetings.  The Saints have won by 17, 14 and 18 points in their last three home meetings with the Lions.  Take New Orleans.

6* Cardinals/Eagles Sunday Night PARLAY on Arizona -3.5/UNDER 51.5

The Key for Arizona: The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they outgain teams by 95.1 yards per game.  The Eagles are 26th in yardage differential as they get outgained by 33.8 yards per game.  The Eagles have been outgained in four straight games by an average of 146.0 yards per game.  They have all kinds of weaknesses all over the field, while the Cardinals have no weaknesses.  They should roll to a comfortable victory Sunday night.

The Key for the UNDER: The Cardinals do have one of the league's best defenses as they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense at 322.4 yards per game.  While I expect the Cardinals to put up plenty of points to cover, the reason I like them is because I expect them to shut down a suspect Philadelphia offense that puts up just 351.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 27-17 final score is what I'm thinking.

7* Jets/Cowboys Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -3

The Key: The Jets have everything to play for right now.  They are in a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final 2 wild card spots in the AFC.  One of those three teams is going to get left out, and the Jets don't want it to be them.  With 3 straight wins over the Dolphins, Giants & Titans by a combined 43 points, they certainly are doing their part.  The Cowboys have nothing to play for right now at 4-9.  Their loss to the Packers last week, coupled with wins by the Eagles, Giants & Redskins, dropped the Cowboys to 2 games out of first place in the NFC East and done for.  The motivational advantage for the Jets, plus the fact that they are far and away the superior team here, makes this a very generous line of -3.  The Cowboys are 1-5 at home this season, losing by 10.0 points per game.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take New York.

7* Bucs/Rams TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this one.  The Rams have no business being favored when they have lost five of their last six games with the majority of them coming via blowout.  They have been outgained by 129.2 yards per game in their last 5 games, and they are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  The Bucs have outgained 9 of their last 11 opponents and are outgaining teams by 22.7 yards per game on the year.  The Bucs are simply the better team here.  They are 5-1 following a loss this season, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Giants/Dolphins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: The Giants have gone 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season. They are clearly better than their 5-7 record, but they haven't been able to finish.  Now trailing the Redskins and Eagles by a half-game, who both won yesterday, the Giants will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  The Dolphins are just as bad as their 5-7 record, if not worse.  Six of their seven losses have come by 10 points or more, and they've gone 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Scoring margin tells the story as the Dolphins are getting outscored by 5.0 points per game on the season, while the Giants are outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 December games.  The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take New York.

7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.  Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less.  This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points.  They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time.  This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result.  They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego.  Take San Diego and the UNDER.

7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45

The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none.  Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread.  I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other.  Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina.  Take Atlanta and the UNDER.

7* Vikings/Cardinals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -10

The Key: The Cardinals are on a mission to finish out the season strong after floundering last year and giving way to the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title.  They are off to a good start with six straight victories coming in, including a 27-3 win over the Rams on the road last week.  The Vikings lost 7-38 to the Seahawks last week and will really struggle to score against this elite Arizona defense.  Minnesota's defense, which is extremely banged up right now, will also struggle to slow down Carson Palmer and Arizona's top-ranked offense.  This one just has blowout written all over it.  The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against NFC opponents.  Take Arizona.

7* Cowboys/Redskins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: With a win Monday, the Cowboys can pull within one game of the NFC East lead.  With a loss, they are pretty much done.  It's safe to say that they are going to be laying it all on the line to try to get a win given the situation.  The Cowboys are 0-7 without Tony Romo, but they have been competitive at least.  Five of those losses came by a TD or less, and two were in overtime.  While I expect the Cowboys to win outright tonight, there is also a good chance it's decided by 3 points or less either way.  The Cowboys have had extra prep time because they played last Thursday.  The Cowboys have been the better team statistically.  They are only getting outgained by 0.6 yards per game, while the Redskins are getting outgained by 27.1 yards per game.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a grass field.  Its running game will be the difference in this one as Darren McFadden has a big day against a Washington defense that is giving up 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  Take Dallas.

6* AFC West Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -3

The Key: The Chiefs cannot be stopped right now.  They have gone 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall, winning by an average of 19.8 points per game.  Their defense has been dynamite in giving up 12.2 points per game during the winning streak, and 18 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games.  Kansas City has had Oakland's number, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings and outscoring the Raiders by an average of 14.0 points per game over those four contests.  Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a home dog of 3 points or less.  The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings with the Chiefs going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland.  Take Kansas City.

6* AFC South Game of the Week on Tennessee Titans -2

The Key: The Titans have had some heartbreaking losses this year as five of their nine losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost 13-19 to the Jaguars despite leading 13-9 heading into the 4th quarter two weeks ago.  Now they'll want revenge on these Jaguars.  You have to like their chances considering these teams have split the season series each of the last five years.  The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings as well.  The Jaguars are 1-4 in true road games this season, losing by 9.4 points per game.  The Titans have the better defense, ranking 7th in the NFL in giving up 331.8 yards per game.  The Jaguars rank 20th in total defense at 358.5 yards per game.  I like this matchup for the Titans, who rank 6th in the NFL against the pass at 224.1 yards per game.  Blake Bortles will have to work for everything he gets.  Take Tennessee.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -1

The Key: The Seattle Seahawks are only 6-5, but you could make the argument that they are still the best team in the NFC.  They have held a 4th quarter lead in all 11 of their games.  Russell Wilson and the offense put up 39 points on the Steelers last week thanks to five touchdown passes from their star quarterback.  Look for this team to continue its second-half surge with a win over the Vikings Sunday.  The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season and aren't as good as their 8-3 record.  Teddy Bridgewater is going to have his hands full against this Seattle defense, which is one of the best in the league.  Seattle ranks 5th in the NFL against the run giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  It is well-equipped to stop Adrian Peterson and will force Bridgewater to have to make more plays than he's used to.  The Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 December games.  Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. defenses that allow 61% completions or more in the second half of the season.  Take Seattle.

7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3

The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions.  They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287.  Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked.  The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three.  The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be.  The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward.  Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Green Bay.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3

The Key:  The Ravens are an absolute mess right now.  They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett.  I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result.  I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week.  I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.  McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year.  He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting.  The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game.  Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around.  The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland.

7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3

The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.  They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis.  This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today.  The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6).  They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home.  Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now.  He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Denver.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are by far the superior team in this one with the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bucs rank 7th in yardage differential (+33.0/game) while the Colts rank 27th (-46.4 yards/game).  The Bucs are 8th in total offense (370.7 YPG) while the Colts are 18th in total offense (345.9 YPG).  The Bucs are 13th in total defense (339.1 YPG) while the Colts are 27th (392.3 YPG).  Add it all up, and believe it or not, the Bucs are the better team.  They are 4-1 ATS in road games this season with outright wins over the Falcons, Eagles and Saints, and a 1-point loss to Houston. They clearly love playing in domes with the way they beat the Falcons and Saints.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Bills/Chiefs AFC Annihilator on Kansas City -4

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They have outscored their opponents 130-39 in the process.  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents as well.  The Chiefs have allowed 18 points or fewer in 6 straight, yielding just 12.2 PPG over that span.  The Bills are on a short week and should suffer a hangover from their loss to the Patriots last week.  QB Tyrod Taylor will play, but he's not going to be healthy with that shoulder injury suffered against New England.  The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.  Take Kansas City.

7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5

The Key: The Cowboys are showing solid value here as home underdogs to the Carolina Panthers.  Jason Garrett is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is so much better with Tony Romo it's not even funny.  The Cowboys are 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him this season.  They won 24-14 over the Dolphins last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them 386-210 for the game.  The Cowboys now have an elite offense again to go with one of the NFL's best defenses, giving up just 335.5 yards per game.  The Panthers have had a very easy road schedule.  They are 4-0 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against the Jags, Bucs & Titans.  Dallas has won each of its last five meetings with Carolina and will make it six in a row here.  Take Dallas.

6* Bengals/Cardinals Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Arizona -4.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.  They are outgaining teams by 105.0 yards per game, which is the best mark in the league.  They have the #1 offense in the NFL at 421 yards per game, and they are #3 in total defense as well, giving up 316 yards per game.  I like them here laying this short number against the Bengals, who are clearly overrated due to their 7-1-1 ATS record this season.  The Bengals are playing on a short week after losing 6-10 at home to the Texans on Monday Night Football, which also puts them at a disadvantage.  The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after outgaining each of their last two opponents by 100 or more total yards.  Take Arizona.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +1

The Key: The line before the season on this game was somewhere in the neighborhood of Detroit -7.5.  I believe we are getting serious value here with the Lions as a home underdog to the Raiders this week.  Detroit has opened just 2-7, and that record has it undervalued.  But this team has played better than its record, and it finally got rewarded with an 18-16 upset win at Green Bay last week as double-digit underdogs.  Look for the Lions to come into this game playing with a ton of confidence now.  I'm still not sold on the Raiders because of their defense.  They give up 26.8 points, 408.6 yards per game and 6.1 per play this season.  The Lions still have an above-average offense that is fully capable of putting up a big number on this Oakland D.  The Raiders have only been favored twice this season, and they lost both of those games to the Bears and Vikings.  Plays on team (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Detroit.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: The Panthers are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season.  They have made backers a lot of money, and as a result, they are clearly overvalued right now.  They have a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the NFC, so they can afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  The Washington Redskins have no such luxury.  They are 4-5 on the season and can pull even with the New York Giants for the NFC East lead with a win this week.  The Redskins are loaded with confidence right now after their 47-14 dismantling of the Saints last week.  They racked up 526 total yards in the win, while holding the high-powered Saints to just 350 yards, outgaining them by 176.  Washington is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Washington.

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3

The Key: Jacksonville is 3-6 this season, but only one game back of first place in the AFC South.  The Jaguars have managed three wins despite playing just three home games this season compared to six on the road.  They are playing well right now, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  Their only loss was a 5-point road loss to the Jets in which they outgained them by 146 yards.  Four turnovers are the only thing that prevented the Jags from winning that game.  The Titans have lost five of their last six games and sit at just 2-7 on the season.  Marcus Mariota is going to be without his top two receivers tonight in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.  Tennessee is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 vs. division opponents and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 vs. teams who are outscored by 6 or more points per game on the season.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals could not possible be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS this season, the NFL's only team without an ATS loss.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them this week.  They are now a double-digit favorite for the second consecutive week, and you're not going to lose a lot of money betting double-digit NFL favorites over the long run.  We'll go the other way and side with the Texans, who are just 3-5 on the season, but they're a better team than that record.  The Texans are only a half-game back in the AFC South and can pull into a tie for first place with a win this week.  The Texans are outgaining teams by 18.5 yards per game this season behind the 9th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense.  Houston has won five of its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  Betting against favorites of 10.5 or more points, in the second half of the season, who beat the spread by 35 or more combined points over their past five games are 27-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston.

6* NFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions +11

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Double-digit underdogs have gone 93-68 ATS since 2003 in division games.  Teams that allowed at least 42 points int heir previous game are 116-81 ATS.  The Lions are coming off their bye week and will be motivated for this division game against the Packers.  They have only lost by more than 10 points at Green Bay in one of the last five road meetings.  Take Detroit.

7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Baltimore is just 2-6 with season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr. Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam.  The Jaguars outgained the Jets by 146 yards on the road last week after beating the Bills in London.  The Ravens haven't beaten anyone by more than 3 points this year, and six of their eight games were decided by 5 points or less.  Take Jacksonville.

6* AFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Browns +6.5

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Landry Jones is back at quarterback in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger.  The Browns also fit a system that is 97-53 ATS and focuses on teams who are coming off a blowout against "good" teams the previous game like the one the Browns suffered against the Bengals last Thursday.  Cleveland has now had extra time to prepare for Pittsburgh as well after receiving a mini-bye week.  Take Cleveland.

7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5

The Key: This line is indicating that the Bills are actually the better team.  Once again, the Jets aren't getting enough credit for how good they really are as only 1.5-point favorites here.  They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense and 11th in total offense, outgaining teams by 42.6 yards per game.  The Bills are getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game this year.  This line is an overreaction from Buffalo's blowout win over Miami last week in which the Bills were in a good spot because they returned from their bye.  It's also an overreaction from losses in two of the last three games from the Jets, but two of those games on the road to the Pats and Raiders, and they rebounded with a home win over the Jaguars last week.  New York is now 3-1 at home this year and should be 4-0 because it outgained Philadelphia by nearly 100 yards but committed 4 turnovers in a 17-24 loss.  Buffalo is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take New York.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

The Key: The Steelers need a win after dropping their last two games to the Chiefs and Bengals.  Ben Roethlisberger returned last week, but he cost the team with 3 interceptions in their 16-10 loss to the Bengals.  He will certainly want to redeem himself this week.  That shouldn't be a problem against an Oakland defense that ranks 31st against the pass at 302 yards allowed per game.  The Raiders are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here because of their two wins over the Chargers and Jets the past two weeks.  But they were coming off a bye when they faced a San Diego team that was coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss to Green Bay and didn't show up.  The Jets didn't show up last week either after their tough loss to the Patriots the previous week.  The Raiders are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after losing two of their past three games.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost consecutive games as a starter since 2010.  That just shows the kind of resiliency he and the Packers have had ever since he's been at the helm.  After a blowout loss to the Broncos last week, the Packers will be playing with extra motivation this week.  They also want to earn the tiebreaker over the Panthers if it comes down to home-field advantage in the playoffs.  The Panthers are 7-0, but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record, and this will be the best team that they've played this year.  The Packers are 9-0 ATS after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  Take Green Bay.

6* Dolphins/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +3

The Key: This play fits into a system that tells us to bet on teams that lost their last game by at least 20 points, are receiving less than 50% of the spread bets, and are underdogs of 3 or more points.  Teams off blowout losses are almost always undervalued.  The Dolphins lost 7-36 to the Patriots last Thursday.  They are not only going to be motivated following that loss, they also want revenge from a 41-14 blowout loss to the Bills earlier this year.  This is a Dolphins offense that put up 41.0 points per game in two wins over Tennessee and Houston before that loss to New England.  Buffalo has surrendered 34.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 who are coming off a road loss and have a losing record on the season are 25-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Miami.

7* Browns/Bengals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5

The Key: Johnny Manziel will get the start for the Browns and has grown a lot since last year as a player.  He has thrown three touchdown passes against one interception with a very solid 93.2 QB rating this year.  He led the Browns to a 28-14 win over the Titans earlier this season and has handled himself well when forced into action.  While the Bengals are the better team on paper, I don't believe they are 11.5 points better than the Browns in this one.  The Bengals are in a prime letdown spot off their big win over the Steelers on Sunday and likely won't bring the focus it takes to put away the Browns by double-digits.  Plus, this rivalry game has been very whacky with the road team winning both meetings last year, including a 24-3 win by the Browns.  The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well, so rarely do these games go as expected.  Plus, I like the fact that Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Browns are actually outscoring their opponents by 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Take Cleveland.

7* Colts/Panthers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis Colts +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts really need a victory as they are sitting at 3-4 and off two consecutive losses to the Saints and Patriots.  I expect them to put their best foot forward here against a Carolina team that is one of the most overvalued in the league.  Despite being 6-0, I believe the Panthers are just a middle-of-the-pack team, and I actually have the Colts rated higher than them.  So getting seven points here is a gift.  The Panthers have faced the league's easiest schedule to this point as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record.  They are only outgaining teams by 4.4 yards per game despite this easy schedule.  The only other time this season the Panthers were favored by more than a field goal, they failed to cover the spread in a 27-22 home win over the Saints as 10-point favorites.  Keep in mind that Drew Brees didn't play in that contest.  Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games as the coach of Carolina.  Take Indianapolis.

6* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +5

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  This game doesn't technically fit the system, but that's because the Cowboys have already had their bye week.  Teams with just one or fewer ATS wins in a six-game stretch are still 193-151 (56.1%) ATS in the seventh game.  It's a larger sample size and a proven winner long-term.  Dallas is 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and most of the bets are coming in on Seattle, but most of the money is coming in on Dallas and moving this line down from 6 to 5 and 4.5 in some places.  This reverse line movement is a clear indication of sharp money on the Cowboys.  Seattle is just 45-57 ATS on the road compared to 64-41 ATS at home during that same stretch.  Jason Garrett is 22-12 ATS as an underdog, including 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Dallas also fits a system that is 63-34 ATS that focuses on playoff teams from last season when they're underdogs following a loss the next season.  Dallas racked up 460 total yards on the New York Giants last week and outgained them by 171, so it is not broken.  Plus, Dez Bryant is expected to make his much-awaited return this week, which only helps the Cowboys.  Take Dallas.

7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  The Ravens are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system.  But the Ravens clearly aren't as bad as their record as all seven of their games have been decided by 8 points or less, so they have simply been unfortunate in close games.  I trust them more than the Chargers, who have lost three in a row coming in and trailed Oakland 37-6 at home last week.  Look for the Ravens to rally the troops at home this week.  They have only played two home games this year compared to five road games, including four trips to the West Coast, which is always difficult.  Their schedule lets up going forward, starting with this week's game against the Chargers.  John Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of his last 6 games as the coach of Baltimore.  Take Baltimore.

6* Lions/Chiefs Sunday *EARLY RISER* on Detroit +4

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  The Lions are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system.  They made some major changes to the coaching staff this week, and I look for those changes to start paying dividends in London against the Chiefs.  They fired their offensive coordinator and two offensive line coaches, and that's the type of bad news that I like to buy on.  The Chiefs are overvalued due to beating the Steelers and third-string QB Landry Jones last week.  They won the turnover battle 3-0, which aided their victory despite getting outgained 339-377 for the game.  Kansas City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take Detroit.

7* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have been arguably the best team in the NFL over the past two weeks since Dan Campbell took over.  They have a completely different mindset as these players are really buying into Campbell's tough man mentality.  They beat Tennessee 38-10 on the road and led Houston 41-0 at home before settling for a 44-26 victory.  The offense exploded for 434 total yards against the Titans and 503 total yards against the Texans.  The ground game has combined for 428 yards the past two weeks as the Dolphins have gotten more physical.  They are 2-2 in their last four meetings with the Patriots with the home team winning each time.  But the Dolphins have led 17-3 and trailed 13-14 at halftime in their last two trips to New England, but just haven't been able to close the deal.  They way they are playing right now, I believe they can pull off the upset.  The Patriots are coming off two straight 7-point wins over the Colts and Jets, and I fully expect this game to be decided by a TD or less as well.  The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Miami.

7* Ravens/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +9

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens certainly haven't had the season they wanted to up to this point.  But John Harbaugh is the kind of coach that will keep his players focused and believing they can turn it around.  The Ravens will have no problem showing up for Monday Night Football this week.  They are just 1-5, but their record could obviously be a lot better.  For whatever reason, they just haven't been able to get it done late in games.  All six of their games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That bodes well for them given this 9-point spread as I believe this contest will be decided by a touchdown or less as well.  Arizona has put up some pretty solid numbers this year, but consider that its four wins have come against teams who are a combined 7-17, and that makes it much less impressive.  Road teams off 5 or more straight ATS losses are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Ravens are 10-1 ATS when they fail to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games under Harbaugh.  Take Baltimore.

6* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Oakland +4

The Key: The Oakland Raiders return from their bye week looking for a victory to get back to .500 on the season.  It beat Baltimore 37-33 at home and Cleveland 27-20 on the road, before back-to-back excruciating losses to Chicago (20-22) and Denver (10-16).  As you can see, Oakland has had a propensity to play in close games this year.  The same can be said for the Chargers, who are 2-4 right now with five of their six games decided by a touchdown or less.  I can easily see this game being decided by a field goal one way or the other, so there's some serious value here with the Raiders catching 4 points.  The fact that they're off their bye week means that they'll be more rested and prepared than the Chargers, who have to be mentally fatigued.  The Chargers have essentially lost to the Steelers and Packers on the game's final play each of the last two weeks.  It's going to be tough to recover from that mentally.  Plays against home teams with an offense that averages at least 370 yards per game against a team that averages 335 to 370 yards per game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 straight games are 25-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Chargers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West foes.  Take Oakland.

7* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets +8

The Key: The New York Jets rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential at +110.6 yards per game and 3rd in point differential at +10.8 points per game.  They are the real deal this season.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 1st in scoring at 15.0 points per game and 1st in yards allowed at 269.2 per game.  They have what it takes to beat the Patriots Sunday.  New England is coming off that huge win over the Colts and I don't think this is a great spot for the Patriots.  Consider that the last four meetings in this series were all decided by 3 points or less, and it's easy to see why the value is with the Jets this week.  Plus, they have held the Patriots to only 268 yards per game in those four meetings.  They just have the secret formula to beat New England, which is a top-notch defense and a running game.  They rank 1st in the NFL in rushing at 146 yards per game.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC.  Take New York.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

The Key: It's now or never for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They have been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule to this point during their 1-5 start.  They have played four road games already with a win over Houston, but losses at Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota, which are three of the best teams in the NFL.  They should be 2-0 at home, but they blew double-digit leads to both Denver and Chicago, losing in the final seconds in both games.  There's no way this team should be 1-5 right now.  The Chiefs actually outgained the Vikings 328-321 last week and had a chance to win with the ball late, but came up short again.  The Steelers should be 0-3 without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss his 4th straight game.  They were outgained by 93 yards in a 20-23 loss to Baltimore, by 57 yards in a 24-20 win at San Diego on the final play, and by 159 yards in a fluky 25-13 home win over the Cardinals last week.  So, they've been outgained by a combined 309 total yards the last three games.  Their luck is going to run out this week against a Chiefs team that simply wants this game more.  The Steelers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in its previous game.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas City.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +2

The Key: The Detroit Lions are just 1-5, but they have been competitive in every game outside of one with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.  This team is better than they've shown, and now they are going to be undervalued in the immediate future because of their record.  They were 2.5-point road dogs to Minnesota in the 1st meeting, and now they're 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  I'll gladly take that value back back the Lions here as they are feeling good after beating the Bears 37-34 last week.  Now they want revenge on the Vikings from that earlier loss.  Minnesota is overvalued right now due to going 4-1 ATS in all games this season.  But the Vikings are fortunate they don't have a worse record.  They are getting outgained by 46.2 yards per game this season, while Detroit is only getting outgained by 28.1 yards per game.  The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.  Take Detroit.

6* Bills/Jaguars Sunday Morning *EARLY RISER* on Jacksonville +4.5

The Key: Jacksonville fits a contrarian betting strategy that is 115-67 (63.2%) ATS in its last 282 tries.  It tells us to bet on team that are receiving less than 25% of the spread bets, who lost by 7 points or more in their last game, and who are listed as an underdog of 3.5 or more points.  Teams are almost always undervalued off a blowout loss like the 20-31 setback the Jaguars suffered to the Texans last week.  But they played better than that score showed, but three interceptions from Blake Bortles did them in.  They actually outgained the Texans 394-382 for the game.  In fact, despite being 1-5, Jacksonville is only getting outgained by 15.5 yards per game on the season.  Despite being 3-3, Buffalo is getting outgained by 21.2 yards per game this year.  I think these teams are much closer to equals than this line suggests.  Buffalo played its first game without Tyrod Taylor last week, and it was rocked 21-34 at home by Cincinnati.  Taylor is expected to miss this game, too, and E.J. Manuel simply isn't nearly as good.  The Bills can't be trusted to lay points with Manuel as their quarterback.  The Bills are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5

The Key: Both teams are 2-4 and in need of a victory this week.  I just believe the Seahawks are going to want it more, and they are more equipped to win this game in a blowout because they are simply better in all phases than the 49ers.  The Seahawks would be 6-0 if they could hold on to a 4th quarter lead.  All four of their losses have come after they have held the lead in the 4th quarter.  I look for Pete Carroll to emphasize finishing in this one, and for his players to respond.  This may be a close game early, but I expect the Seahawks to pull away in the second half.  The 49ers simply aren't very good this year.  They rank 31st in point differential (-10.0 PPG) and 32nd in yardage differential (-87.8 YPG), so you could make the case that they're the worst team in the NFL.  The Seahawks are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the 49ers, outscoring them by an average of 14.3 PPG.  They won both meetings last year by double-digits.  Take Seattle.

7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles have simply owned Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants over the past several years.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Giants after sweeping the season series last year, which included a 27-0 beat down in Philadelphia.  The Giants need a late score to put away the lowly 49ers 30-27 at home last week.  Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and injuries certainly have not helped matters.  They rank last in the NFL against the pass in giving up 304.2 yards per game.  Sam Bradford threw for 333 yards as the Eagles racked up 519 total yards against the Saints in a 39-17 home victory last week.  It appears the Eagles have finally turned the corner and I expect them to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11

The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries.  It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later.  Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record.  San Diego is 1-4 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 5-0 ATS.  The Packers might be the most overvalued team in the league right now.  They should not have covered last week as 9-point favorites in a 24-10 win over the Rams.  The Rams had their last five possessions in Green Bay territory, but came away with zero points.  They missed three field goals and had two interceptions.  San Diego has the kind of offense that will keep them in this game for four quarters.  Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he's leading the Chargers to an average of 410.0 yards per game.  This will be by far the best passing offense that the Packers have been up against, and the best offense in general.  Take San Diego.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries.  It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later.  Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record.  Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS this season, while Carolina is 3-1 ATS.  The Panthers are also 4-0 and overvalued as a result.  They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL with their four opponents in Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay combining for a 5-15 record.  Seattle has played one of the toughest schedule with its three road losses coming against Green Bay, St. Louis and Cincinnati, who are a combined 12-3.  The Seahawks are 28-2 at home over the past four seasons and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  Take Seattle.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on New York Jets -6.5

The Key: The New York Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have opened up 3-1 with impressive double-digit wins over Cleveland (31-10) at home and Indianapolis (20-7) and Miami (27-14) on the road. Their only loss came at home to Philadelphia (17-24) in a game that they should have won.  They outgained the Eagles by 92 yards for the game but gave up an 89-yard punt return TD that was the difference.  They have actually outgained all four of their opponents.  They are averaging a respectable 356.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 13.7 points and 280.2 yards per game.  The Jets actually rank 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 76.0 yards per game.  Only the Patriots have been better.  Now they take on a deflated Washington team that just lost in overtime at Atlanta last week.  But that game wasn't as close as the final score as the Redskins got a defensive touchdown and were outgained by 148 yards by the Falcons.  The Jets are fresh and ready to go as they are coming off their bye week.  The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take New York.

7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: Atlanta is simply rolling right now and I do not expect the Saints to be able to slow them down.  The Falcons are 5-0 this season and Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  He finally has a running game, which he hasn't had in quite some time in Atlanta.  The Falcons have averaged 156 rushing yards over the past three weeks.  Atlanta is putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season.  Now this high-octane attack gets to go up against a New Orleans defense that allowed 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game.  That matchup right there is going to lead to a blowout win for the Falcons.  It also helps that Atlanta's defense is improved, limiting the Redskins to 19 points and 270 total yards last week while coming up with the game-winning interception in overtime.  The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last year.  Take Atlanta.

7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have had some extra time to prepare for the San Diego Chargers, which is going to be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.  They last played on Thursday in a 20-23 home loss to the Ravens in a game they never should have lost, but couldn't finish late.  Michael Vick made his first start in place of Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and he was at a disadvantage because he was working on a short week.  Now he has had basically 10 days to get ready for this game and to expand the playbook with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley.  Vick will be much more aggressive in this game, especially since he's up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game this season, while the Steelers are only giving up 18.7 points per game.  The clear edge on defense goes to Pittsburgh, and I wouldn't give the Chargers as much of an edge offensively as this line indicates.  The Steelers have the better weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, while the Chargers are really banged up along the offensive line.  T King Dunlap and G Orlando Franklin are expected to miss this game, while T D.J. Fluker and G Chris Watt are both ganged up as well.  Pittsburgh is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 games as an underdog.  The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +2

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Jaguars fit the system this week.  The Bucs have lost 12 straight home games and should not be favored.  The Jaguars racked up over 400 yards of total offense on the Colts last week and should have won.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Redskins fit the system this week.  They are actually 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 95 yards per game.  The Falcons are overvalued this week due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS records.  Take Washington.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bears +10

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Bears fit the system this week.  The Bears offense looked much improved last week with Jay Cutler leading them to a win over the Raiders.  The Chiefs are clearly overvalued this week as double-digit favorites.  Take Chicago.

6* Rams/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on St. Louis +9.5

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Rams fit the system this week.   The Packers are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  The Rams have beaten the Seahawks and Cardinals this season, two of the best teams in the NFL.  They can give Green Bay a fight.  Take St. Louis.

7* Colts/Texans TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -3.5

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are going to be without Andrew Luck, which is why this line has moved so much since it opened at Texans +1.5.  The Texans simply need this game too badly to overlook the Colts playing without Luck.  They are 1-3 and their season is pretty much on the line tonight.  They got embarrassed last week by the Falcons due to self-inflicted wounds, so they are going to be playing with an extra chip on their shoulder because of that.  Arian Foster is on his second game back and expect a heavy dose of him as this Houston offense is so much better with him in the lineup.  The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are in trouble again today.  They should have lost to the Jaguars last week as they gave up 431 total yards to that putrid offense.  They are now giving up 388 yards per game and will be up against a Houston offense averaging 384 yards per game.  Take Houston.

7* Lions/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -9.5

The Key: At 1-2 on the season, the Seattle Seahawks certainly need a win tonight.  That's why they will not be overlooking the 0-3 Lions, who are simply a mess right now.  The Seahawks' only two losses have come against the Packers and Rams on the road this season.  They crushed the Bears 26-0 in their only home game last week while outgaining them by 225 total yards in an absolute blowout.  The Lions have been outgained in every game during their 0-3 start, and they are getting outgained by 90.7 yards per game on the season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  The Seahawks will be going for their 7th straight home win and their 23rd in 25 home games Monday night.  Seattle has won its last two home meetings with Detroit by a combined 33 points.  The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 375 or more yards per game since 1992.  They are winning by 22.0 points per game in this situation.  Take Seattle.

6* Packers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +9

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The 49ers are a system match this week.  They suffered the biggest Week 3 blowout loss by 40 points to the Cardinals.  The 49ers opened as 9.5-point underdogs, and despite over 80% of the spread bets being on the Packers, this line has dropped down to even 7 in some places.  This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that the sharp money favors the 49ers.  Since 2003, home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 118-88 (57.3%) ATS, which provides even more value on the 49ers.  Take San Francisco.

7* NFC West Game of the Month on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The Rams are a match this week.  After scoring 34 points against the Seahawks in a Week 1 victory, the Rams managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss to Washington and six points in a Week 3 loss to the Steelers.  The red-hot Cardinals, meanwhile, now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) to win the Super Bowl.  This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Rams and sell high on the Cardinals.  The Cardinals are receiving nearly 90 percent of the spread bets this week.  Take St. Louis.

6* NFC South Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The Buccaneers are a match this week.  One week after upsetting the Siants as 10-point underdogs, the Bucs tallied just 318 total yards in a 19-9 loss at Houston in Week 3.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-0 and receiving 90% of the spread bets this week.  But the Panthers have played a very soft schedule as their opponents are a combined 2-7.  Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, which provides additional value on the Bucs this week. Take Tampa Bay.

 7* Ravens/Steelers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3

The Key: The Ravens have a must-win game on their hands as they cannot afford to fall to 0-4.  They could be 3-0 right now but blew fourth quarter leads in all three of their losses to the Broncos, Raiders and Bengals.  "This is a must-win for sure," Baltimore linebacker Elvis Dumervil told the team's official website. "We won't quit, and you can guarantee that Pittsburgh, (it will) get our best shot."  Without Ben Roethlisberger, I don't give the Steelers much of a chance this week.  Michael Vick has to come in and start on a short week and won't be fully prepared because of it.  Joe Flacco owns a 6-3 record in his last 9 starts against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns passes against only 2 interceptions.  The Ravens are 14-4 ATS following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Take Baltimore.

7* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +6.5

The Key: This is the most inflated line on the board.  The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Steelers. while the Cardinals are coming off a blowout win over the Bears.  Almost every time you should take the team coming off a blowout loss in this situation because there is value in doing so.  That's what we'll do Sunday as this game is decided by less than a TD.  Take San Francisco.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are -2 and in a must-win spot here.  They take on a New York Jets team coming off a massive win over the Colts on Monday Night Football.  So not only are the Jets working on a short week, they're also in a letdown spot here.  The Eagles will simply want this one more and get the win as a result.   The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Redskins/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -3.5

The Key: The New York Giants really should be 2-0 right now had they not blown 10-point leads in the second half of each of their first two games against the Cowboys and Falcons, who are both proving to be two of the best teams in the NFL in the early going.  Now the Giants have to win this game and will be hungry to do so.  They get to play a Redskins team that they have beaten four straight times by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Eli Manning threw seven touchdown passes and only one interception in the two meetings with the Redskins last year.  Washington split its two home games to open the season, but now it goes on the road where it is a combined 2-14 over the past two seasons.  The Giants ranked 3rd in the league in run defense thus far in giving up 68 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  The Redskins are clearly a primary running team this year as they rank 1st in the league in rushing, so the Giants are equipped to stop them.  Take New York.

7* Jets/Colts MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts were a popular choice to win the Super Bowl coming into the season.  They had progressed further in the playoffs each of the last three years, and many thought they were ready to take that next step.  I'm not not one of them.  But that perception that the Colts are a Super Bowl contender has them way overvalued in the early going.  That was the case last week in a 27-14 road loss to the Buffalo Bills.  Now, the Colts have to face a similar team in the New York Jets, who are built behind a Top 5 defense and one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, just like the Bills.  The Jets thumped the Cleveland Browns 31-10 in the opener.  The Jets were picked to finished last in the AFC East by most media outlets, which has them undervalued in the early going.  This is a much better Jets team than the one Rex Ryan had to work with last year.  Todd Bowles stepped into a great situation with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason.  The Colts could be without top receiver T.Y. Hilton and top RB Frank Gore, who are both questionable to play.  Even if they do suit up, I still like the Jets to stay within a touchdown here and possibly pull off the upset.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC foes and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have gone 5-3 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Colts despite being an underdog 6 times, and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take New York.

7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles should have beaten the Atlanta Falcons last week, while the Dallas Cowboy should have lost to the New York Giants.  But since Dallas won and Philadelphia lost, I look for the Eagles to come out extra motivated for a win this week.  The Cowboys do not have Dez Bryant, and without him they are an average offense at best.  Philadelphia is one of the best offensive teams in the league and will rack up a ton of points in this one behind an inspired effort from ex-Cowboy DeMarco Murray.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years, coming back to win by an average of 16.9 points per game.  Take Philadelphia.

6* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003.  Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS.  Betting on the Jaguars is like picking up after your dog.  It's not pretty and nobody likes it, but most of the time you don't have a choice.  The Jaguars are one of the least popular teams among spread bettors.  The Dolphins are receiving over 90% of the action in this one after their 17-10 win at Washington last week.  But the Dolphins needed a punt return TD to win that game and were actually outgained by 93 yards by the Redskins.  The Jaguars' 9-20 home loss to the Panthers wasn't as bad as the score looked.  They outgained the Panthers by two yards in that game, and their defense limited them to 263 total yards.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 9 or fewer points last game are 47-20 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Jacksonville.

6* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +2.5

The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003.  Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS.  The betting public is all over the road favorite Arizona Cardinals this week with 87% of the action going their way.  Chicago actually entered the fourth quarter with a lead against Green Bay last week and outgained the Packers by 80 total yards.  Matt Forte showed he's still an elite back with 141 rushing yards.  Arizona only outgained New Orleans by 19 yards last week, and that was far from the 31-19 score that the final scored indicated.  Take Chicago.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Washington Redskins +3.5

The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003.  Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS.  The St. Louis Rams are receiving roughly 82% of the spread bets in this one.  This one-sided betting has pushed this line up past the key number of 3 to 3.5.  The Rams are in a huge letdown spot here after beating the Seahawks last week and have fallen flat the next week off a big win under Jeff Fisher numerous times before.  The Redskins looked good against the Dolphins last week in a 10-17 loss.  They actually outgained the Dolphins by 93 total yards.  It took a punt return TD for Miami to win that game and come back from a 10-0 deficit.  The Redskins aren't as bad as they're perceived to be, while the Rams aren't as good as their result last week.  This is a typical overreaction.  Plays against teams off an upset win as a home underdog are 80-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Washington.

6* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +2

The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003.  Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS.  Over 80% of the bets are coming in on the Tennessee Titans, who beat the Tampa Bay Bucs 42-14 last week.  But the Titans only outgained the Bucs by 36 total yards, and they somehow managed to score 42 despite just 309 yards of total offense.  Cleveland's 10-31 loss to the Jets last week wasn't as big of a blowout as the score would indicate.  The Browns were only outgained by 12 total yards, and they gave the ball away five times with turnovers.  The perception is that Marcus Mariota and the Titans are the next big thing now, but I'm not buying it yet.  The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Browns are 6-0 ATS following 1 or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cleveland.

7* Vikings/49ers Monday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are legitimate contenders to win the NFC North this season.  Their defense was the most improved in the league last year in allowing only 21.4 points per game after giving up 30 points per game the year before Mike Zimmer took over.  Zimmer has even more talent on defense this season.  But the key is getting Adrian Peterson back healthy after he missed all but one game last year.  Teddy Bridgewater went 5-4 over his final nine starts last season and should only be better in his sophomore campaign, especially now that the running game will open up more passing lanes.  The 49ers lost more this offseason than any team in the NFL.  They were fortunate just to go 8-8 last year, and now I view this is a 6-10 team at best.  Their offense is atrocious with a terrible QB in Colin Kaepernick, and now he has a worse offensive line to work with.  The defense will be around league average, but it will certainly take a step back with some massive losses on this side of the ball.  There's a reason this line has moved so much in the Vikings' favor since it first came out.  I believe the betting public is right in doing so, and the Vikings will prove that tonight.  The 49ers are 0-6 ATS when the total is 35.5 to 42 points over the last two years.  Take Minnesota.

6* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on New York +6.5

The Key: Four of the last five meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less.  New York has lost four straight to Dallas, but three of those losses were by 5 points or less.  I'll back the Giants as underdogs in this one as they'll be motivated to put an end to this losing streak to division rival Dallas.  Take New York.

7* NFL Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins will challenge the New England Patriots for AFC East supremacy this season.  They are in the second year of Bill Lazor's offensive system, and he was with the Eagles before coming over to Miami.  Ryan Tannehill and company will be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL.  But the defense is the reason Miam is legit this year.  They just added Ndamukong Suh for over $100 million, and he'll help a D that finished 14th in the league in total defense last year.  Washington is an absolute mess right now with Robert Griffin III.  The Redskins start a turnover-prone QB in Kirk Cousins, and their defense is horrible. I'll lay the points with the Dolphins in the opener.  Take Washington.

7* Steelers/Patriots Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +7

The Key: The New England Patriots come into the 2015 season overvalued after winning the Super Bowl last year.  Tom Brady did not play well in the preseason, and while he's a great quarterback, I don't believe he's worth the amount of points the oddsmakers have assigned to him.  The Patriots were going to be roughly 2.5-point favorites when Brady was suspended, and now they're 7-point favorites now that he's going to play.  Pittsburgh does have some key guys out on offense in Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey, which is being overblown here.  The Patriots lost their top two corners on defense, including Darrelle Revis.  The Steelers put up over 411 yards per game on offense last year behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger, who led the league in passing.  The Patriots are missing starting C Bryan Stork, their second-leading receiver in Brandon LaFell, and their leading rusher down the stretch last year in LeGarrette Blount.  So, they are essentially missing the exact same pieces as the Steelers.  Sure, the Steelers' pieces that they are missing are slightly better, but it's not as lopsided as most think.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots +2 (I've been informed that the line I locked in at "+2" is not correlating to the number the line feed is showing "-1" - it must be some minor programming glitch. I want you to know I still like the Pats at -1 and even at -3 for that matter.)

The Key: Seattle was the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL statistically during the regular season, but it was far from dominant at home against the Packers in the NFC Championship, and it's up against an entirely different animal here. Led by Tom Brady, New England is hitting on all cylinders offensively. After gashing Baltimore for 422 yards and 35 points, it put up 397 yards and 45 points against the Colts. The numbers are worth noting because the Patriots are an eye-opening 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New England has risen to the occasion time and time again with Bill Belichick on the sideline and Brady under center, even against the stiffest defenses. The Pats are 30-15 ATS versus teams that give up 17.0 ppg or less under Belichick. They are 16-5 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 285.0 ypg or less under Belichick. They are 18-9 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage above 75% under Belichick. Besides the Brady/Belichick factor, the New England run defense is a big reason for this play. The Pats ranked No. 9 in the NFL against the run this season and have held foes to 85.1 rushing yards per game over their last 10 games. Seattle's run game needs to be effective for it to be at its best offensively, and I don't see it happening against New England's stingy run defense. When the rushing yards don't come easy, Russell Wilson will have to carry the load. He didn't perform well at all in the NFC Championship when he had the help of a running game, and I don't see him getting nearly as much help here. Brady and Belichick have lost their last two Super Bowl appearances, and that is a huge motivating factor. It's tough to repeat. It hasn't happened in a decade when the Patriots did it, and I believe they'll be the team to deny Seattle from getting it done. Take New England.

6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Colts +7

The Key: The Colts are a different team on the defensive side of the football than they were when they were blown out by New England in November. Since getting embarrassed at Dallas, they've flipped the switch and have given up just 10, 10 and 13 points. Holding the Broncos to 13 points in Denver is no easy feat, and it tells me they're ready to give the Patriots a game. Indy is 6-0 ATS under Chuck Pagano after holding opponents to 17 points or fewer in each of its last two games and has won by an average score of 31.0 to 22.7 in this situation. The Pats have a huge public following and are typically overvalued as a result. That's especially been the case in the playoffs. New England is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 postseason contests and is only 2-9 ATS as a #1 seed in the playoffs under Bill Belichick. It has won these games on average but only by an average of 4.1 points. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 AFC championship games. Take the points.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Packers +7.5

The Key: We are getting a great number here as books are expecting plenty of public money on the Seahawks with all the media attention Aaron Rodgers' calf injury is getting. There are several other factors contributing to this number like Seattle's 36-16 win over the Packers in the season opener and its 7-0 SU and ATS run, which included a double-digit win at home over Carolina last week. Green Bay's 4-4 road record has also played a part. But with a Super Bowl trip on the line, I'm not hesitating to get grab the points with Green Bay.

While Rodgers may not be 100%, he was 24 of 35 for 316 yards and 3 TDs with no picks against the Cowboys. He has shown the ability to put the team on his back and win football games, even while less than 100%, and I trust him more than Russell Wilson in this big spot.

Wilson is a clutch player, but he is mostly a game manager who depends on Seattle's strong running game to take the pressure off him. He got a huge lift from the running game in the first meeting, but the Packers have transformed their defense since then and have given up an average of only 92.9 rushing yards per game over their last nine games and have gone 8-1 during this stretch.

Green Bay couldn't run the football worth a lick early in the season when they first faced Seattle, but it has averaged 134.2 rushing yards over its last 13 games. The Seahawks will have to respect the run this time around, and that will open up the field for Rodgers.

Seattle is a terrific defensive team, but the Packers are on a 14-6 ATS run versus teams that give up just 12.9 to 18.9 ppg with Rodgers under center. The Packers are also on a 38-14 ATS run versus teams with passing defenses that allow 4.9-6.9 passing yards per attempt with Rodgers at the controls.

We also can't ignore what Rodgers has done away from home in his career in the playoffs. He's 4-2 in road/neutral field games in the playoffs with one of the losses coming in OT. He's won six of his last nine postseason games overall and has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in eight of 10 career postseason games.

Another factor that can't be ignored is Seattle's propensity for penalties. The Seahawks give up an average of 63.0 ypg on penalties, which is worth noting because the Packers are 22-6 ATS under McCarthy versus teams that give up an average of 60.0 penalty yards per game or more. Take the points.

7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Broncos -7

The Key: Indianapolis played the Broncos to a seven-point game in Denver clear back in Week 1, but the final score was misleading as the Broncos led 31-10 in the fourth quarter and then called off the dogs. While some may look to play the revenge angle, history says that's not a good move. In fact, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss if they are off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Indy is just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog with Luck under center. In addition, the Colts are 0-6 ATS all-time with Luck at the controls in road games played in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75%. These six defeats have come by an average score of 41.7 to 16.8. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NFL *CA$H COW* on Packers -5.5

The Key: I like the Packers at home where they dominate the best of competition late in the season. Consider that Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in home games played in the second half of the season since 1992 versus teams with a win percentage greater than 75%. The Packers have won these games by an average score of 28.3 to 15.0. It is also worth noting that Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in home games played in the second half of the season since 1992 versus good offensive teams that average 27.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these opponents by an average score of 33.3 to 20.5. I like the Packers to handle the cold weather better and take care of business.

6* Saturday Night Annihilator on Panthers +11

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champs are getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a team that has given them problems. Carolina has played Seattle to within five points each of the past three seasons, and I expect another close games Saturday. These two played a 13-9 game Oct. 26, which is worth noting because the Panthers are 11-2 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss. They have won by an average score of 26.2 to 15.9 in this situation. The Carolina defense has been outstanding down the stretch, holding each of its last five opponents to 17 points or less. I expect this unit to have success against a Seattle offense that has struggled. The Seahawks have managed only 20 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that have outgained their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 51-22 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +7

The Key: I like the Ravens catching a TD + PAT given their postseason track record and how competitive they've been with the Patriots. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games on the road while the Patriots are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than seven points in seven of its last eight matchups with New England and hasn't lost by more than six points in its last five visits to New England. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Lions +7.5

The Key: Dallas is being overvalued following four straight impressive wins and covers to close the regular season. Detroit is the superior defensive team, and this is the time of year to side with defense. In games played eight games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams that give up just 14.0-18.0 ppg when they are matched up against a team that allows 18.0-23.0 ppg as doing so has produced a 50-24 ATS mark over the last five seasons. So much of Dallas' success has stemmed from its running game, but now the Cowboys will be up against the top run-stuffing unit in the league. Romo is just 5-17 ATS versus teams that give up only 14.6-20.6 ppg. Dallas is 8-19 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett and just 1-8 ATS under its current coach following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4

The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4

The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Saturday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +6.5

The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points eight games or more into the schedule if they allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game and if it's a matchup between these with a +/-3 3.0 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 38-10 ATS mark since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last five seasons. Arizona has hung its hat on defense all season. While it held the 49ers to just 20 points last time out, it allowed them to gain 395 yards on 59 plays. This is no deterrent for me as teams headed up by Arians are 9-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 yards per play or more in their previous game and have won these nine by an average score of 21.7 to 13.9. Carolina's struggles against the run also bode well for the Cardinals. Arians' teams are 7-0 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 4.5 yards per carry or more, and they have won these by an average score of 25.4 to 16.9. The Panthers are off a big win and cover in Atlanta but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take the points.

6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3

The Key: Atlanta hasn't been the same juggernaut at home the last two seasons, and it has gotten nothing easy against the Panthers. Carolina is 3-2 in the last five meetings with the two losses coming by just two points each so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points here. The Atlanta offense has been going good the last few games, which means it's time to fade away. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in home games the last three seasons after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. It has lost these contests by an average score of 25.5 to 21.7. The Panthers are perfect this December, which comes as no surprise because they've thrived late in the season since Rivera took over in 2011, going 14-3 in December under his watch. They are also 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games under Rivera and have won these by an average score of 31.0 to 17.7.

7* NFC North Game of the Year on Bears +7

The Key: Just when it looked like Jay Cutler might never take another snap for the Chicago Bears, the football gods have given him another chance. I expect Cutler to make the most of his opportunity. Cutler has often been at his best against the Vikings, winning seven of his last eight starts in the series. This line is an overreaction to Minnesota's five-game cover streak as well as the public perception of Cutler. Chicago is 8-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover in a game it lost. You want to fade home teams that are off a road loss if they carry a win percentage of .400 to .490 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .250 to .400. Doing so has produced a 46-14 ATS mark since 1983.

6* NFC East Annihilator on Giants -2

The Key: Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm backing the team on the upswing. The Eagles were sitting 9-3 and controlled their own destiny but have lost their last three games and are eliminated from playoff contention. The Giants haven't quit on the season despite being out of playoff contention a long time ago. They've won their last three and will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a 27-0 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent if they are also off an upset win of 10 points or more on the road. Doing so has produced a 39-15 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 10-2 ATS in home games since 1992 when seeking revenge for a blowout loss of 21 points or more, and they have won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.

7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Raiders +6

The Key: I expect a major letdown from Buffalo as it makes the long cross-country trip following a huge win over the Packers. It's been a struggle for the Bills on the West Coast, going 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to the Raiders. It's been a struggle all-around for Buffalo in this series as it is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings. You want to fade favorites that have a winning record when they are off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.0 points but have lost outright by an average of 2.0 points. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Blowout on Dolphins -6.5

The Key: Minnesota has been a covering machine with against the spread wins in seven of its last eight, including four straight. With odds makers handing the Vikings this many points, it's clear they want the money on the Purple and Gold. I'm not taking the bait. While Minnesota has played well against a couple good teams (Green Bay and Detroit) during its covering streak, those teams weren't giving the Vikings their complete focus because they had already handled them in the first meeting. Plus, the Vikes have played a lot of weak competition during the second half of the season (Buccaneers, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Jets). Off back-to-back blowout losses to Baltimore and New England, the Dolphins will be highly motivated and will be looking to take their frustrations out on Minnesota. Miami has double-digit home wins over New England, San Diego and Buffalo this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 in their last six road games. You want to back teams like Miami that have forced one turnover or none in five consecutive games when they are playing a team that had a -2 turnover margin or worse last game. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1983. Lay the points.

6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +7

The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Chicago Bears, but I expect a strong performance from them in their final home game of the season versus a division rival. We are getting a good number here considering Chicago has won or lost by fewer than seven points in 10 of the last 13 meetings. Detroit is coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, and it could be peeking ahead to next week's matchup with Green Bay. The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games versus a team with a losing home record. You want to back December home underdogs or pickems that are off two or more consecutive spread losses. Doing so has produced a 96-57 ATS mark since 1983.

*Note: Bears still a play without Cutler starting.

6* Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Bills +5.5

The Key: Green Bay is being overvalued on the road where it has just one win of more than three points this season. The Bills are coming off a loss in Denver but are 12-1 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons, winning these games by an average score of 26.5 to 17.8. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past six meetings by nine points or more. Take the points.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10

The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* AFC East Annihilator on Dolphins +8

The Key: New England is being overvalued here because it is a public team. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings, and I expect them to give the Patriots a game here. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home and 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Miami is 6-0 ATS eight games or more into the season the last two seasons versus teams that average 260.0 passing yards per game or more, defeating these teams by an average score of 28.8 to 20.5. This trend speaks to how well the Dolphins have defended the pass. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have gained 99 rushing yards or fewer in each of their last three games when they're up against a team that was outrushed by 100 yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points.