Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

6* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +2.5

The Key: The 49ers want to avenge their 17-10 road loss at Arizona earlier this year.  They had Trey Lance at QB for that game and he was awful, yet the 49ers still outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards.  Their defense played well in limiting the Cardinals to just 304 yards.  And there's reason to believe Arizona will be even worse off offensively in this one, plus they won't have JJ Watt on defense this time around.  Kyler Murray is banged up with an ankle injury and isn't himself, which showed in their upset loss to the Packers Thursday.  AJ Green is on the COVID list, and DeAndrew Hopkins is questionable.  The 49ers got their offense going against the Bears last week with 467 yards and 8.6 YPP while scoring 33 points despite settling for a lot of field goals.  Jimmy G is back and playing well and this will be a formidable team moving forward.  Take San Francisco.

7* Chargers/Eagles NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1

The Key: The Chargers had 3 straight impressive wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns before being flat the last 2 weeks against the Ravens and Patriots.  All 5 of those teams are better than the Eagles, whose 3 wins this year have come against the Lions, Panthers and Falcons.  The Chargers will make easy work of the Eagles this week and get back on track.  Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games against NFC teams.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after covering the spread in its previous game.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Falcons/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Atlanta +6

The Key: This is a big letdown situation for the New Orleans Saints off their upset win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  They now take on a Falcons team that they won't get up for.  The Falcons are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games overall with their 2 losses both coming by 6 points or fewer.  So I like the price we are getting on the Falcons this week to keep it close.  The Saints just lost Jameis Winston to a season-ending injury, Taysom Hill is questionable, so they could be down to 3rd-stringer Trevor Siemian.  This Saints offense isn't good already, and it is even worse without Winston.  The Saints average just 305.9 YPG on offense this year.  They get outgained by nearly 40 YPG.  Atlanta is only getting outgained by 24 YPG.  Bets against favorites who are off an upset win over a division opponent as a home underdog who also have a winning record on the season are 44-16 ATS since 1983.  Take Atlanta.

7* Jets/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Jets come into Thursday with confidence with Mike White under center.  They just had 34 points and 511 yards against a good Cincinnati defense last week behind 405 passing yards and three touchdowns from White.  The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a disappointing OT loss to the Titans and are on a short week.  They may bounce back with a win, but asking them to win by 11 points or more tonight is asking a lot.  Carson Wentz continues to make bonehead plays week after week.  And he'll be without TY Hilton, plus the defense will now be without DT Tyquon Lewis.  Indianapolis is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take New York.

7* Giants/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -9.5

The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night.  They were 13-point favorites when this line opened and are now single-digit favorites.  They got crushed by the Titans last week, while the Giants crushed the Panthers.  Those recent results from last week are playing too much of a factor into this line this week.  Consider the Chiefs' 2 best performances this year came against NFC East teams when they went on the road to beat both the Eagles by 12 and Washington by 18.  They will also beat the banged-up Giants by double-digits this week.   New York is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 15 points or fewer last game.  Take Kansas City.

6* Dolphins/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The price is right to back the Miami Dolphins in this game Sunday.  Consider they were only 3.5-point dogs in their first matchup with the Bills and are now 14-point dogs in the 2nd matchup, which is a 10.5-point adjustment.  And the Dolphins have a healthy Tua back at QB and are getting healthier by the week, especially in the secondary.  They will have the goods to keep this game closer than 2 touchdowns against the Bills this weekend.  Bets on road dogs or PK who failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against a team that covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games are 23-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Miami.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14.5

The Key: Tyrod Taylor makes his return to the Texans looking to pick up where he left off in the first 2 games this year and provide this offense the same spark that he had before.  Taylor accounted for 471 yards and 4 touchdowns without a turnover in 6 quarters against the Jaguars and Browns to open the season.  He has been a covering machine as a starting QB in this league.  The Rams won't be hungry enough to put away the Texans by more than 2 touchdowns.  And it's an early start time for a West Coast team here, which is always a tough situation.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Carolina Panthers +3

The Key: The Carolina Panthers have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.  They lost 3 close games then were shocking blown out by the Giants.  Now we are getting the Panthers as dogs against a Falcons team that they are better than.  The price is right to pull the trigger on the Panthers.  The Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, so they are getting pricey.  The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Take Carolina.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +6.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won and covered 6 straight since that ugly opening loss to the Saints.  They are missing some players tonight, but so are the Cardinals, most notably JJ Watt.  As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers under center they have a chance.  And it's worth noting the Packers are 6-0 in 6 games without Devante Adams over the last 3 years and scoring over 32 PPG.  Take Green Bay.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +18

The Key: We have the perceived best team in the NFL in the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals against the perceived worst team in the NFL in the 1-5 Houston Texans here.  That fact has this number artificially inflated.  The Cardinals are primed for a letdown.  They just beat the Rams, 49ers and Browns and have the Packers on deck Thursday, so this is a sandwich spot.  This is more of a bet against the Cardinals due to the spot than it is a bet on the Texans.  But it's worth noting the Texans did outgain the Patriots by 8 yards 2 weeks ago and were only outgained by 35 yards by the Colts last week.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Detroit Lions +3.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions deserve to be better than 0-5.  They have showed tremendous resilience to keep fighting and will continue to do so behind head coach Dan Campbell.  They have lost on last-second field goals to the Ravens and Vikings in 2 of their last 3 games.  The other was a 14-24 loss to Chicago in which they had 4 trips into the red zone result in zero points.  They deserved to win all 3 games.  Now they will get that elusive first victory Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.  It's a tough situation for the Bengals and a hangover spot.  They had their chances to beat the Packers, but lost 25-22 in OT after both kickers combined to miss 5 straight field goals at the end.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against a team that wins 25% of its games or fewer.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent, a bad team winning 25% or less of its games when playing a team with a winning record are 32-9 ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Detroit.

6* Chiefs/Washington Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Washington Football Team.  Fading the Kansas City Chiefs has been a big money maker because they can't stop anyone.  The Chiefs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall with almost all their victories coming by one score.  Washington has the offense that can keep them in this game for 4 quarters and match the Chiefs score for score.  They have scored at least 21 points in 4 straight games, and Taylor Heineke is proving not to be much of a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick at all.  The Chiefs give up 32.6 PPG, 437.4 YPG and 7.2 YPP.  They yield 141 YPG and 5.2 YPC on the ground.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that yielded 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more are 40-14 ATS since 1983.  Bets against favorites with a poor turnover defense that forces 1 or fewer turnovers per game after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 23-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Washington.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +10

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football in which they put everything on the line and probably deserved to win.  But they came up short after blowing a 19-point lead.  Now they are on a short week and in a hangover spot.  They face a Texans team coming off one of their best games of the season in a 25-22 loss to the Patriots.  They missed a FG and an extra point and probably should have won that game.  Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and is improving.  He should be good enough to hang with the Colts.  This has been an extremely closely-contested rivalry through the years.  14 of the last 15 matchups were decided by 9 points or fewer.  Take Houston.

7* Colts/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens always feast on bad teams like the 1-3 Indianapolis Colts.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record.  They face a Colts team that lost by 12 to the Seahawks and by 9 to the Titans.  Their only win came against the Miami Dolphins with backup QB Jacoby Brissett last week.  I think that win has them getting too much respect from the books here.  The Ravens beat the Broncos 23-7 last week and their offense humming right now, while their defense is as healthy as it has been all season and was a force against the Broncos last week.  Take Baltimore.

6* Giants/Cowboys NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +7

The Key: Betting the New York Giants when they are on the road has been free money over the years.  The Giants are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  They are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games against NFC foes.  The Cowboys are getting too much respect from the books after opening 4-0 ATS, the last unbeaten team in the NFL against the spread.  These teams stack up pretty well on a yards per play basis.  The Giants average 6.2 YPP and allow 5.9 YPP, while the Cowboys average 6.4 YPP and give up 6.4 YPP.  The Cowboys have simply benefited from forcing 10 turnovers already, which is unsustainable.  The Giants had 485 yards against the Saints last week to flash their offensive potential.  Take New York.

6* Dolphins/Bucs Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +10

The Key: This is almost strictly a situation play.  The Tampa Bay Bucs and Tom Brady are in line for a letdown after their huge win in New England on Sunday Night Football last week.  Brady's return to New England was the talk of the week.  Now they have to try and get up to play a Dolphins team that is coming off 2 straight losses and looked bad last week against the Colts.  The Dolphins will be all in here facing the defending champs.  I trust Brian Flores and this defense to keep them in the game, while Jacoby Brissett makes enough plays in the passing game to keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  He'll be up against a depleted Bucs secondary that could be missing as many as 3 starters.  That's why they signed Richard Sherman.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in Weeks 5 thru 9 over the last 3 years.  Tampa Bay is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games after yielding 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games.  Take Miami.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-1 and come into this game with the Packers with extra rest and time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday.  They'll be up against a depleted Packers team that will be without 3 starters and possibly 5 more, who are all questionable.  The biggest concerns for the Packers are at linebacker and in the secondary, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover all these weapons that Joe Burrow has at his disposal.  This is an improved Cincinnati defense that is yielding 18.8 PPG and should hold the Packers in check.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Jets/Falcons NFL London *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the New York Jets in this neutral site game in London.  This line should be closer to a PK as there's not much difference between these 2 teams.  Zach Wilson had his best game yet last week in a 27-24 upset of Tennessee.  They have played a tough schedule and now it lightens up a little here against Atlanta.  The Falcons are 1-3 with their only win coming 17-14 over the Giants.  They lost by 26 to the Eagles, by 23 to the Bucs and by 4 to Washington.  Matt Ryan is broken, and their defense is the worse unit here yielding 32.0 PPG and 383.3 YPG.  The Jets only give up 23.5 PPG and 353.8 YPG and have been respectable on that side.  Wilson is only going to get better with each start, and should have his best game yet against this Falcons defense.  Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 against teams that force 0.75 turnovers per game or fewer.  Take New York.

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle +2.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Seahawks tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams.  Russell Wilson thrives in prime time, and he and the Seahawks will be out for revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Rams last season.  The Rams have taken a big step back defensively this year in yielding 24.8 PPG and 396.8 YPG.  The Rams are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games after yielding 400 or more total yards in 2 straight games.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a terrible defense that yields 360 YPG or more, after gaining 400 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

6* Giants/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7.5

The Key: The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for over a month.  They are a tired team right now.  They are getting too much respect from the books against the New York Giants this week.  They beat the Patriots 28-13 on the road last week, but it was misleading as they only had 252 total yards and were +3 in turnovers.  The Saints are only averaging 234 YPG on offense this year.  The Giants are hungry for their first win after coming close the last 2 weeks with a 1-point loss to Washington and a 3-point loss to Atlanta.  The Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 road games against NFC teams.  Take New York.

6* Panthers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina +4.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are 3-0 this year and continue to not get any respect from the books.  Now they have extra time to prepare for the Dallas Cowboys after beating the Houston Texans on Thursday last week.  The Cowboys are coming off a big divisional win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.  This is a short week for them, adding to the great situation for the Panthers.  It is also a letdown spot off that division win on national TV.  The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Take Carolina.

6* Seahawks/Vikings NFC *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.  They will be hungry for their first victory.  And they wouldn't be home underdogs in this game if they were 2-0 instead of 0-2, which they easily could be.  Dalvin Cook fumbled when the Vikings were in FG range in OT against the Bengals and would have won had they simply kicked the FG.  Then last week kicker Joseph missed an XP and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona.  So you could argue that they should be 2-0.  This team will not quit on the season and will dig deep here.  The Vikings have been so much better at home than on the road under Zimmer and keep in mind that both of those losses were on the road.  The Seahawks blew a 30-16 lead against the Titans last week and lost 30-33 in OT.  They gave up 212 rushing yards to the Titans and 542 yards total.  Cook should have another monster game after the Vikings rushed for 177 yards on the Cardinals last week.  The Vikings will also be revenge-minded after blowing a late lead in a 26-27 road loss to Seattle last year.  They gave up the game-winning TD with 15 seconds left.  The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Vikings are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Minnesota is 39-17 ATS in its last 56 games off a loss.  Take Minnesota.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs don't blow teams out, and the Los Angeles Chargers don't get blown out.  So this is a pretty easy choice for me.  The Chargers only lost 2 games all season last year by more than one score.  They they have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 18 games when you figure they won by 4 at Washington and lost by 3 at home to the Cowboys in their first 2 games this year.  The Chiefs have won just one of their last 13 games by more than one score.  That's a big reason they are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their leaky defense is the reason they can't blow out teams, and it has reared its ugly head again this year.  The Chiefs have yielded 469 YPG and 7.6 YPP in 2 games this year against the Browns and Ravens.  The Chargers averaged 447.5 YPG in 2 matchups with the Chiefs last year.  The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games as road dogs.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +3.5

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers were fortunate to beat the Bills in Week 1 due to big players from their defense.  But the injuries caught up to them last week as they were upset at home 17-26 by the Raiders.  And it's not getting any better this week against the Bengals.  The Steelers lost their best player in TJ Watt to a groin injury after he had one sack and four tackles in the 1st quarter against the Raiders, and that's when the game turned.  They were already without LB Devin Bush and CB Joe Haden.  WR Diontae Johnson got hurt late in that game, and QB Ben Roethlisberger suffered a pec injury.  They were already without DE Stephon Tuitt as well.  No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Steelers.  The Bengals upset the Vikings in Week 1 and nearly upset the Bears last week in a 20-17 road loss.  Joe Burrow just keeps them in games, and their defense is vastly improved this year.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 4.5 YPP on defense through 2 games.  Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 Week 3 games.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Panthers/Texans TNF *CA$H COW* on Carolina -7.5

The Key: The Houston Texans are in a very tough situation tonight.  They have to try to get rookie quarterback Davis Mills ready to start in 3 days against the best defense in the league to this point in the Carolina Panthers.  This is a Panthers defense that is allowing just 10.5 PPG, 190 YPG and 3.7 YPP.  You can expect things to go very rough for Mills in this one.  I love head coach Matt Rhule who has this Panthers organization on the rise.  They have been underrated in the early going with their 2-0 ATS start with dominant wins over the Jets and then the Saints 26-7 last week.  They should improve to 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with a win and cover at Houston Thursday night.  Take Carolina.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: Joe Burrow was impressive in his season debut and didn't look hobbled at all.  He completed 20 of 27 passes for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Bengals to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Vikings.  Joe Mixon had 127 yards on the ground as the Bengals did pretty much whatever they wanted to against a good Vikings defense.  Now the Bengals take a step down here against a weak Bears offense and defense.  That was evident in their 34-14 loss to the Rams to open the season.  The Bears averaged just 4.7 YPP on offense and gave up 7.7 YPP on defense in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Bears are missing several key players in LB Trevathan, NT Goldman, RB Cohen and could be without T Peters.  Andy Dalton clearly is not the answer at QB and will struggle against his former team as well.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

6* 49ers/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect after a 32-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week.  That's a Falcons team that went 4-12 last year and was the worst team in the NFL in the preseason.  They might just be that bad.  The 49ers had a 24-point lead over the Lions with 2 minutes left by only won by 8.  That comeback by the Lions has the 49ers not getting the respect they deserve.  Few teams are loaded with as much talent as the 49ers when healthy, and although they do have a few injuries, they are in much better shape than they were last year.  They put up 41 points and 8.0 YPP against the Lions and are an elite offensive team.  They are also the better of these 2 teams defensively.  I like the fact that the 49ers stayed out East for this 2-game road trip to build some team chemistry.  They did this in 2019 and crushed the Bengals in this situation, and did it again in 2020 and dominated the Giants.  Now they will own the Eagles Sunday.  Bets against home teams who gave up 24 PPG or more last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 31-8 ATS since 1983.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS win.  Take San Francisco.

6* Broncos/Jaguars AFC *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +6

The Key: This line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  Jacksonville was a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Houston and is now a 6-point home underdog to Denver this week after losing 21-37 to the Texans.  Denver beat a bad New York Giants team 27-13 on the road and is getting a ton of respect now.  Contrary to popular belief, the Jaguars aren't going to quit on their season already.  That was a tough spot on the road for a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence in his 1st game as an NFL QB.  He will be much more comfortable at home in his 2nd start now that he got his feet wet.  And when was the last time Teddy Bridgewater was a 6-point favorite?  He has done well in the role of the underdog, but now there are expectations that will be tough to live up to.  And Bridgewater will be without one of his top receivers in Jerry Jeudy, who suffered an ankle injury last week.  LB Bradley Chubb is questionable as well.  The Jaguars have managed to stay remarkably healthy and should give a much better effort in Week 2.  The Broncos are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Giants/Washington TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -3

The Key: Washington has the edge at the line of scrimmage in a big way on both sides of the football in this game.  That will help make up for having a backup QB in Taylor Heinicke, who actually played really well in replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first half last week.  He completed 11 of his 15 passes for 120 yards with a score and didn't turn the ball over.  Washington will be able to rely in Gibson to run the ball after the Broncos rushed for 156 yards on the Giants last week.  The Giants only ran for 60 yards on 20 carries and Saquon Barkley is questionable.  Daniel Jones isn't very good and will be without his safety valve in TE Evan Engram.  This has Washington blowout written all over it.  Take Washington.

6* Browns/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -6

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are 0-15-1 SU in Week 1 games over the past 16 seasons.  They have to try to end that streak against the best team in the NFL in the Kansas City Chiefs, who are 6-0 SU in their last 6 Week 1 games and scoring 37.4 PPG in those contests.  The Chiefs are loaded on offense again and upgraded their offensive line in the offseason to help protect Patrick Mahomes.  The Chiefs have an underrated defense as well.  Keep in mind the Chiefs were 8.5-point favorites at home against the Browns in the playoffs last year and now are only 6-point favorites in Week 1.  So based off those lines there is some value here with the Chiefs.  They should win by a TD or more to open their season.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: I don't like the outlook of the Minnesota Vikings this season.  They went 0-3 in the preseason and were outscored by 10.6 PPG.  Their defense was a problem last year in allowing 29.7 PPG and 393.3 YPG.  It will be better but not much.  The Bengals were good when Joe Burrow was running the show.  He had 5 300-yard passing games in his 10 starts.  Burrow is back healthy and the offense is loaded.  He is playing behind an offensive line that didn't allow a single sack in the preseason.  And the defense will be improved.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and shouldn't be favored on the road here.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Cowboys/Bucs NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -8

The Key: Dak Prescott hasn't played since October after not playing in the preseason.  He won't be able to turn around and hand the ball off much because the Bucs ranked 1st in the NFL against the run last season.  He's going to have to chuck it around, and he's going to have to do so behind a patchwork offensive line that is missing a couple starters.  He's also going to be playing from behind because the Bucs will score at will against a Cowboys defense that gave up nearly 30 PPG last year.  The Bucs have great chemistry with amazingly all 22 starters returning from their Super Bowl team.  They will be clicking from the start this season, while it's going to take the Cowboys some time to gel.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to avenge their 2 regular season losses to the Saints.  They turned the ball over too often and did not play well at all.  But they have been a completely different team since those first 2 matchups.  The Bucs have won 5 straight and are scoring 35.8 PPG during this streak.  They just put up 507 yards against an elite Washington defense last week.  And you know Tom Brady will make the proper adjustments that will allow their offense to have success against the Saints the 3rd time he faces them here.  The Bucs also get good news with LB Devin White returning from a COVID absence against Washington.  He is their best defensive player with 140 tackles and 18 of those coming for loss, including 9 sacks.  The Bucs will avenge those 2 defeats with an upset victory Sunday night.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Bears/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Chicago +10.5

The Key: The Bears go from being 4.5-point dogs to the Packers last week to 10.5-point dogs to the Saints.  The Packers just have their number, but they were competitive in their other 14 games this season.  And they will be competitive against the Saints as they continue playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  The Bears have scored 30.2 PPG and averaged 382.2 YPG in their last 6 games, all of which have come with Trubisky as their starter.  They still have a great defense that allows 344.1 YPG.  The Saints are getting too much respect from their 33-7 win over the Panthers in Week 17 in which the Panthers turned the ball over 5 times, including a couple INT in the end zone.  The Bears only lost 23-26 (OT) as 5-point dogs in their first matchup with the Saints this year and now are getting 10.5 points in the rematch.  The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff home games.  Teams in the wild card round with a .500 record or worse are 7-0 ATS since 2004 while winning 6 of those games outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Rams were 3-point favorites in their first matchup with the Seahawks in which they won 23-16 at home.  And they were only 1.5-point dogs in their second matchup in which they lost 9-20 in Seattle.  Now they are 3.5-point dogs in the playoffs.  That's a 6.5-point adjustment from that first matchup and a 2-point adjustment from the 2nd.  The price is right to back the Rams here.  They have a Super Bowl defense and should get Jared Goff back.  Even if they somehow don't, John Wolford proved he could lead the offense with a huge win in a must-win Week 17 game.  The Rams beat the Cardinals 18-7 and outgained them by 119 yards while holding them to just 214 yards.  They also outgained the Seahawks by 56 yards in their first matchup and by 42 yards in their 2nd matchup this year.  The Rams are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against NFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Washington/Philadelphia NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington -3.5

The Key: Washington is expected to have its top 3 weapons on offense back this week in QB Alex Smith, WR Terry McClaurin and RB Antonio Gibson.  That is going to make all the difference in this game as Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter since he came to Washington and 6-26 without him.  The Eagles are missing several guys in the secondary, plus Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett and Shaun Bradley up front.  They are also without DeSean Jackson, Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert on offense.  Washington will be able to move the ball and score points on a soft Philadelphia defense that has yielded over 500 yards in 2 consecutive games.  And this elite Washington defense that has yielded 20 points or fewer in 6 straight games will make life hell on Jalen Hurts.  Washington is on a mission to win the NFC East, while Philadelphia has officially been eliminated from playoff contention after a bad 17-37 loss at Dallas last week.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a road loss as a favorite.  Take Washington.

6* Cardinals/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Rams went from being 4-point favorites to 3-point underdogs with the news that Jared Goff would miss this game with a thumb injury.  He is not worth 7 points to this team.  In fact, Goff is the player that is holding them back from reaching their full potential.  Of course he is better than backup John Wolford, but Sean McVey is a genius and will have the right game plan to put the former Wake Forest product in a good position to be successful.  And McVey owns the Cardinals as the Rams are 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Los Angeles has won those 7 games by an average of 21.3 PPG.  That includes their 38-28 win earlier this season that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Rams outgained the Cardinals 463 to 232 in that contest.  And Kyler Murray will be playing through a leg injury he suffered in a bad 12-20 loss to the 49ers last week.  The Cardinals were outgained by 2.8 YPP in that game as they averaged just 4.4 YPP on offense and gave up 7.2 YPP on defense.  And that was against a terrible, banged up 49ers team that was playing with a 3rd-string QB in CJ Beathard.  The 49ers had lost 6 of their previous 7 games coming in.  The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  The Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS loss, and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a SU loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -1

The Key: The Seahawks have a chance to clinch the NFC West with a win Sunday over the Los Angeles Rams.  And it just comes down to me trusting Russell Wilson in this spot a lot more than Jared Goff.  Plus the Seahawks want revenge from a 16-23 road loss to the Rams in their first matchup.  But that was a great spot for the Rams off their bye week.  Now the playing field is leveled in the rematch, and plus the Seahawks are at home now.  While the Rams' defense gets all the headlines, it's the Seahawks defense that is improving as much as any unit in the NFL down the stretch.  It started at halftime of that first meeting with the Rams.  Seattle held Los Angeles to 6 points and 114 yards in the second half.  Since that game, the Seahawks have held 3 of their past 5 opponents to under 300 yards, and Arizona's 21 points in Week 11 are the most allowed by Seattle during this stretch.  The Rams will be without RB Cam Akers, who was really coming on strong for them in being their workhorse before the injury.  He has averaged 102 RYPG in his last 3 games and will be missed.  Pete Carroll is 9-2 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games off an ATS loss.  The Seahawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home matchups with the Rams.   Take Seattle.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons +11

The Key: The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won all 6 games but all 6 wins came by 6 points or fewer.  Expect more of the same here against the Falcons.  Atlanta has been very competitive under Raheem Morris.  They have only lost once in their last 7 games by more than 5 points.  The Falcons will be hungry to try and take down the defending Super Bowl champs.  That's a big reason the Chiefs can't cover right now is because they always get the opposing teams' best shot.  And the Chiefs seem to just be going through the motions here late in the season with the top seed in the AFC all but locked up.  Take Atlanta.

6* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona -5

The Key: The 49ers have gone 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games with all 6 wins coming by 8 points or more.  It will be more of the same here against a hungry Cardinals team that is currently in the last spot in the NFC playoffs.  The Cardinals are playing with a sense of urgency right now and have played some of their best football here down the stretch.  They dominated the Giants 26-7 and outgained them by 231 yards 2 weeks ago.  Last week they won and covered in a 33-26 win over the Eagles and outgained them by 104 yards.  Their offense is thriving right now with 458 YPG in those 2 wins.  This offense is back to being dynamic with Murray running the ball again with 21 rush attempts in his last 2 games.  CJ Beathard will get the start for the injury-plagued 49ers.  Beathard is 0-3 as a starter against the Cardinals and 1-9 lifetime as a starter in the NFL.  He's simply not very good.  The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

6* Vikings/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Vikings today now that they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.  But the Vikings haven't been playing badly at all like that betting record would suggest.  They have just been favored so many times.  Now they are back in their preferred role of underdog where they have thrived with an upset win over the Packers and a 1-point loss to the Seahawks when they were near touchdown dogs in both of those games.  The Vikings have now won the yardage battle in 7 straight games, meaning they could easily be 7-0 in their last 7 games.  The Saints were just outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs last week and 55 yards by the Eagles 2 weeks ago, both SU losses.  Drew Brees looked terrible in his first start back against the Chiefs.  That final score was much closer than it should have been as the Chiefs had 34 first downs compared to 15 for the Saints.  I don't know how anyone can expect the Saints to get margin here being without 3 of their best receivers in Thomas, Smith and Harris.  The Vikings won't go away because this is an offense that is averaging 407 YPG in their last 7 games.  The Vikings are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 14-3 ATS under Zimmer off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Take Minnesota.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

6* Jaguars/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +13

The Key: Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best quarterback and will be returning to start for them this week.  The Jaguars have still gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have been very competitive.  Now Minshew should give them a spark at the QB position.  The Ravens have to be tired playing their 4th game in 19 days here.  And they are coming off a 47-42 shootout victory over the Browns on Monday Night Football.  It's a letdown spot and they are fatigued.  Their defense gave up 493 yards to the Browns, so the back door is going to be open for the Jaguars if we need it against this Ravens defense.  The Jaguars have topped 350 total yards in 3 consecutive games coming in and can move the ball and score points.  Bets on road dogs or PK who are on an 8-plus game losing streak against an opponent that's off 2 or more consecutive wins are 21-3 ATS since 1983.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Seahawks/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seahawks as less than a TD favorite against the Washington Football Team Sunday.  This isn't the same Washington team that pulled 3 straight upsets over the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers.  They are now without starting QB Alex Smith, and it's a huge downgrade to third-stringer Dwayne Haskins as we saw early in the season when he got the starting nod.  They are also without their best player on offense in RB Antonio Gibson.  While Washington does have a good defense and can limit Seattle, it's too much of a burden on them here.  Washington isn't going to be able to move the ball and score consistently against an improving Seattle defense that has allowed 23 or fewer points in 5 straight games, including 17 or less in 3 straight.  This simply has blowout written all over it with the injuries to Washington on offense.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Seattle.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

6* Chiefs/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Their defense is one of the best in the league and has what it takes to slow down Patrick Mahomes.  They face a Chiefs team that is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Chiefs shouldn't be laying 7 points on the road here to Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS at home this year.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining an average of 450 YPG or more in their last 3 games coming in.  Take Miami.

6* Broncos/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5

The Key: The situation favors the Carolina Panthers today.  They return from their bye week to face a banged up Broncos team that will be playing for a 9th consecutive week after having an early bye in Week 5.  The Broncos are coming off a tough 16-22 loss to the Chiefs in a game that the Chiefs were flat.  They were more dominant than the score showed as they had 447 total yards against the Broncos.  The Panthers are getting healthier coming off their bye and will have several players available that were in COVID protocol.  The Broncos are getting outscored by 7.9 PPG on the season.  Take Carolina.

7* Washington/Pittsburgh MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7

The Key: Washington is fresh and ready to go after crushing Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday.  They are poised to make a run at the NFC East title.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while not losing once by more than 3 points.  Their defense is absolutely balling, and Alex Smith is making the offense efficient without making many mistakes.  That defense and not turning the ball over gives Washington a chance to beat anyone, even the unbeaten 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  This may be the worst situation for any team in the NFL.  The Steelers are on only 4 days’ rest after being forced to play the Ravens on Wednesday.  They have to face a Washington team on extra rest, and the injuries and COVID problems are mounting up for Pittsburgh.  They lost LB Bud Dupree against the Ravens and fellow LB Devin Bush was already out.  It’s unknown if DE Tuitt, C Pouncey or RB Conner will be back in time for Monday due to COVID.  And it’s a letdown spot off the big win over the Ravens and with another huge game against the Bills on deck next week.  This just feels like the game the Steelers lose.  But either way getting 7 points with Washington is too much here.  Take Washington.

6* Patriots/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -1.5

The Key: The Patriots may have the coaching advantage here with Belichick over Lynn, and it’s not really even close.  But that is being factored into this spread too much.  The fact of the matter is the Chargers are the better team everywhere and not even Lynn can mess this one up.  The Patriots never should have beaten the Cardinals last week as they were held to 179 total yards including 69 passing yards.  Cam Newton is broken and banged up right now and is questionable to start Sunday.  The Chargers have an elite offense behind Justin Herbert who has led their offense to 25.2 PPG and 397.8 YPG.  And their defense is only allowing 342.9 YPG, so they are outgaining their opponents by roughly 55 YPG this year.  They are much better than their 3-8 record would indicate and that record will have the Chargers showing a lot of value down the stretch here.  The Patriots are getting outgained by 5 YPG on the season and are about where they should be at 5-6.  Lynn is coaching for his job here, and a win over Belichick and the Patriots would got a long way.  The Patriots are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS win.  New England is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games off a SU win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games.  This line has moved too much because of it, and now the price is right to back the Cardinals.  The Cardinals were favored in this game before the games were played last week.  But now they are 3-point home dogs.  And the only thing that happened was the Rams getting upset as nearly 7-point favorites by the 49ers and the Cardinals getting upset as 1-point favorites against the Patriots.  But the Cardinals should have beaten the Patriots as they lost 17-20 despite holding New England to 179 yards and outgaining them by 119 yards.  The Rams were outgained by 37 yards by the 49ers and turned the ball over 4 times.  They deserved to lose.  Arizona needs this game more as it is one game behind the Rams in the standings.  And I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Cardinals here.  They have played 5 home games this year and haven’t lost once by more than 3 points.  Bets on underdogs or PK who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite that win 51%-60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 30-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Arizona.

7* Ravens/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -10

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are missing too many key pieces to even be competitive today against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Pernell McPhee, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Brandon Williams, Nike Boyle, Ronnie Stanley and Calais Campbell.  And they are without several others that aren’t big names like those.  They are having to pull up several players from the practices squad just to be able to play in this game.  And they have really pissed off their rivals here in the Steelers, who won’t have any problem pouring it on the Ravens.  They will be trying to sweep the season series for just the 2nd time in 12 years here in 2020 and will relish the opportunity.  And the Steelers have beaten the Bengals and Jaguars by a combined 50 points the last 2 weeks so they have shown the ability to run it up.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against AFC opponents.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

6* Washington/Dallas NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington +3

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Washington Football Team is clearly better than Dallas and proved it a few weeks back in a 25-3 victory over the Cowboys, who started Andy Dalton in that game.  They outgained the Cowboys by 255 yards and held them to just 142 yards in the win.  Washington has now outgained 5 straight opponents by an average of 110 YPG.  They have an elite defense and that is going to be the difference in this game.  Alex Smith can manage the offense and has shown he can move the ball down the field when he needs to as he has thrown for nearly 900 yards in the past 3 games.  The Cowboys go from being 14-point dogs to the Steelers to 7-point dogs to the Vikings to now 3-point favorites this week.  I cashed in the Cowboys as my NFC Game of the Year last week over Minnesota, but this is too big of an adjustment, and now it’s time to go against them this week.  The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Key: The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last 2 games against the Eagles and Steelers.  And now they have a bye week to get ready for the Minnesota Vikings.  They still have a shot to win the NFC East because the division has been so poor, so look for them to be revived off their bye week.  The Vikings are on a short week after playing the Bears Monday night.  So the situation really favors the Cowboys, and I like the price with them catching more than a touchdown.  There’s a good chance Andy Dalton returns at quarterback and either way they’ll be fine as Garrett Gilbert played well against the Steelers.  Bets against home favorites after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  Take Dallas.

6* Packers/Colts Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Green Bay +3

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Packers as road underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a shaky performance against the Jaguars that looked closer than it really was.  The Packers only won 24-20 despite outgaining the Jaguars by 135 yards.  The Colts are also coming off a misleading 34-17 win over the Titans last week in which they trailed at halftime, but they got a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD that set up 2 quick scores in the 2nd half.  I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over Philip Rivers all day.  And Rodgers gets one of his top weapons back this week in Alan Lazard from an abdominal injury.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in 3 straight games are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Packers are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.

6* Dolphins/Broncos AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  This team just keeps flying under the radar and hasn’t missed a beat with Tua at quarterback.  They’ve beaten 2 of the better teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and Rams with Tua while also making easy work of the Chargers last week.  And now they face a struggling Denver Broncos team that has trailed by 21 or more points in 4 straight games coming in.  The Broncos have issues at quarterback and on defense.  Drew Lock has been a bust and a turnover machine, and their defense has yielded 36 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Broncos have yielded 26 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Bets on any team like Miami that committed 1 or fewer turnovers last game against a team that had a turnover margin of -3 or worse last game are 72-37 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Miami.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Ravens/Patriots AFC *BAILOUT* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 this season with their 2 losses coming to arguably the 2 best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Chiefs.  Their 6 wins have come by 17.2 PPG this year so they are blowing out the teams they are supposed to.  And they should blow out the awful Patriots tonight.  New England has lost 4 of its last 5 with its only win coming on a last-second field goal over the Jets on Monday night.  Now the Patriots are on a short week with less time to prepare to try and stop Lamar Jackson and company.  That’s a huge disadvantage.  The Ravens should be able to run wild on this soft Patriots defense and name their score.  The Patriots are really lacking weapons on offense this season, and Cam Newton has been terrible.  New England QB’s have just 3 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions this year which is awful in today’s NFL.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS against good rushing teams that average 130 or more RYPG over the last 2 years.  Take Baltimore.

6* Bills/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Cardinals this week.  They were a little fat and happy coming into their bye week off their big win over the Seahawks the week prior.  And they laid an egg in an upset loss to the underrated Miami Dolphins last week.  They will be back focused this week.  Now they catch a fat and happy Bills team coming off an upset win of their own over the Seahawks.  That came after beating their biggest rivals in the Patriots the week prior.  They have a bye on deck next week and I think they could be looking ahead to it and not giving the Cardinals the proper attention they deserve.  This is a Cardinals offense that has put up 30-plus points in 4 straight and one that can out-duel Josh Allen and company.  The Cardinals also have the better defense as they yield only 22.5 PPG this year while Buffalo gives up 25.9 PPG.  The Cardinals are scoring 29.3 PPG while the Bills are scoring 26.9 PPG.  The numbers indicate the Cardinals should be more than 2.5-point home favorites, and the situation dictates it as well.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more YPA.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take Arizona.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.

7* Saints/Bucs NFC South Game of the Year on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and have outscored those 7 teams by 13.3 PPG.  They have been a completely different team since losing to the Saints in the opener, and now they are out to prove it and grab a stranglehold on this division as they get revenge at home.  The Bucs have scored at least 25 points in all 6 of their wins this year with an explosive offense.  They give up only 20.6 PPG and less than 300 YPG on the season with one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have won 4 straight games by 6 points or less and have been very fortunate.  They have a leaky defense that allows 28.1 PPG this year.  And Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be and is dealing with a shoulder injury right now.  The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 consecutive wins by 3 points or fewer.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Dolphins/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals had everything going their way going into their bye week with 3 straight victories.  So the bye week only could have hurt them from a mental perspective because it halts their momentum.  And their huge win over the Seahawks going into the bye probably has their heads a little bigger than they should be right now.  Miami is the type of team that nothing comes easy against.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have upset wins over the 49ers and Rams recently, 2 teams in the toughest division in the NFL.  They also played the Seahawks very tough, and now they get their shot at these Cardinals.  The Dolphins have the way better defense here giving up just 18.6 PPG this season.  They have also put up 26.9 PPG on offense and should unleash Tua this week at quarterback.  He didn’t have to do much last week because they jumped out to a 28-7 lead over the Rams.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 thru 9 over the last 2 years.  Take Miami.

7* Packers/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -2.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are hungry for a couple of reasons here Thursday night.  They want to erase the taste of their upset loss to the Vikings last week, who were in a good spot coming off their bye week and the Packers just couldn’t stop Dalvin Cook.  And they also want revenge after losing to the 49ers in both matchups last year.  They were eliminated in the playoffs by a very good 49ers team.  But this 2020 version of the 49ers is a mash unit with all of their injuries.  It only got worse in their loss to the Seahawks last week with both Jimmy G and George Kittle having to leave the game with injuries.  I’m not even going to list all of their injuries because it would take too long.  Let’s just say their current roster has little chance of even being competitive against this 2020 Packers team.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this year with their only loss to the Bucs, who might be the best team in the NFC.  They beat the Saints, Vikings and Texans by a combined 31 points.  The 49ers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS at home this year with upset losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Bets on road teams off 5 straight games where they force 1 or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Green Bay.

7* Bucs/Giants MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +11

The Key: All the value in backing the Bucs has gone by the wayside the last 2 weeks with their blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits on the road against the New York Giants this week.  You just don’t want to be laying double-digits on the road in the NFL.  The price is right to back the Giants, who continue to play in close games and show up every week.  That’s why the Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have been a nice money maker.  They only lost by 4 to the Bears, by 8 to the Rams, by 3 to the Cowboys and by 1 to the Eagles and covered the spread in every one of those games.  One of their non-covers was a 20-19 win over Washington as 2-point favorites.  So, 5 of their last 6 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  They have a sneaky good defense that can keep them in games.  And Daniel Jones just got back his favorite receiver in Sterling Shepard from injury last week and he made an immediate impact.  Shepard has 6 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in a 21-22 road loss to the Eagles last Thursday.  That also means the Giants have extra time to prepare now after playing last Thursday.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing a Thursday game.  Bets against road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10 PPG or more off a win by 10 points or more are 51-20 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York.

6* Rams/Dolphins Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: Most people want to downgrade the Dolphins for switching from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa.  While it is a questionable move, if you were going to do it, now is the time.  The Dolphins had a bye week to get Tua ready to run the offense.  And now the Rams have no idea what to prepare for this week.  I’m not downgrading the Dolphins like everyone else just yet.  This is a terrible spot for the Rams.  They are on a short week after beating the Bears on Monday Night Football.  And now they have to travel out East and face a 10:00 AM body clock game here against the Dolphins.  This is a Dolphins team playing well coming off back-to-back blowouts over the 49ers (43-17) and Jets (24-0).  Miami’s defense gives up just 18.8 PPG and is better than it gets credit for.  The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a bye week.  Take Miami.

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are rested and ready to go coming off their bye week.  They won’t be lacking any motivation this week with their hated rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town.  Having that opponent I’m sure made the Ravens sharp on their bye week.  And John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the NFL to back on extra rest.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are 5-1 this year with their 5 wins coming by 17.8 PPG and their only loss coming to the Chiefs.  They will now hand the Steelers their first defeat of the season Sunday.  Take Baltimore.

6* Titans/Bengals AFC *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals continue to be a money maker due to their 1-5-1 SU record.  But they are 5-2 ATS with 6 of their 7 games decided by one score.  And all but one of their losses was by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout loss came at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, which is understandable.  The Bengals now play the 5-1 Tennessee Titans who are nowhere near as good as their record.  The Titans are 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less this year, so they have been very fortunate in close games.  And after losing after missing a last-second field goal to the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers last week, it’s one of those losses that could lead to a hangover here.  There’s no way the Titans will be as hungry to face the Bengals as they were the Steelers.  And we’ve seen bad teams like the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings and Texans all take the Titans to the wire this season, so the Bengals are more than capable of doing the same.  Joe Burrow is having a huge rookie season and just threw for over 400 yards on the Browns last week.  He can keep them in games with all of the weapons he has on offense.  And he should find plenty of success against a soft Tennessee defense that yields 25.5 PPG and 402 YPG.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent, a team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Las Vegas Raiders +2.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are nowhere near as good as their 5-2 record would suggest.  Their 5 wins have come by a combined 32 points while their 2 losses have come by a combined 63 points.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.0 PPG this year.  The Las Vegas Raiders have faced a gauntlet of a schedule.  They have played 4 teams with winning records in the Saints, Bills, Chiefs and Bucs, and 2 teams at or around .500 in the Patriots and Panthers.  And they even upset the Saints 34-24 as 4-point dogs and the Chiefs 40-32 as 10-point dogs.  Football Outsiders shows the Raiders as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL thus far.  They had some Covid issues last week that didn’t allow their offensive line to practice all week, plus they lost their best player on D in safety Johnathan Abram.  And it was a 24-20 game with the Bucs into the 4th quarter before things unraveled late.  Well, neither of those things will be an issue this week as they prepare to face the Browns.  Cleveland has the worse injury problems, especially now that they’ve lost their best receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear suffered last week against the Bengals.  Bets on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 off 5 or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team that scores 27 PPG or more are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Colts/Lions Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit +3

The Key: The Detroit Lions have quietly gone 3-1 in their last 4 games overall.  They will be playing with a ton of confidence after knocking off the Falcons on the final play of the game last week.  And Matthew Stafford is enjoying having Kenny Golloday back at receiver after he missed the first 2 games of the season.  The defense is allowing just 18 PPG the last 2 weeks and things are looking up in Detroit.  The Indianapolis Colts are 4-2 but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule thus far.  And the only teams they faced that have a winning record are the Bears and Browns who are both not as good as their records.  And they lost to the Browns.  The Lions have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road and have faced 4 winning teams.  Take Detroit.

7* Falcons/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -2.5

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They are coming off a 22-23 loss to the Lions when they had the game in the bag if they had just executed.  But they scored a TD instead of running the clock out and kicking a chip shot FG, opening the door for the Lions to win on the final play of the game.  Now the Falcons are 1-6 with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  The Panthers are 3-4 right now and could easily be 6-1.  They still believe they can make the playoffs and this is a huge game for them.  Teddy Bridgewater is playing great football and threw for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns in their 23-16 win in Atlanta earlier this year.  The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back this week.  This will only be the 2nd outdoor game for the Falcons this year.  They lost by 14 to the Packers in their only other outdoor game and are now 0-5 ATS in their last 5 grass games.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups.  Take Carolina.

7* Bears/Rams MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Chicago Bears are a paper tiger.  They are 5-1 and could easily be 1-5 instead.  They came back from 17 down to beat the Lions and 16 down to beat the Falcons in the 4th quarter of both those games.  They came back from 13-0 down to beat the Bucs.  They needed a late stop to beat the Giants 17-13.  And last week needed a late stop to avoid OT against the Panthers.  They were beat worse than the 19-11 score against the Colts would indicate.  And they are getting outgained by nearly 25 YPG this year, which isn’t what you would expect from a 5-1 team.  They will get exposed by the Rams, who are 4-2 and outgaining their opponents by nearly 70 YPG on the season.  It is a Rams team that will be playing hungry after losing to the 49ers last week.  The Rams have actually been better defensively than the Bears this season in giving up 318 YPG compared to 337 YPG for the Bears.  And the Rams have the way better offense in averaging 388 YPG compared to 313 YPG for the Bears.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  They will win this game by a TD or more Monday night.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Jaguars/Chargers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -7.5

The Key: Without question, the Los Angeles Chargers are the best one-win team in the NFL this season.  They could easily be 4-1 instead.  They lost to the Chiefs by 3 as 9-point dogs, lost to the Panthers by 5, lost to the Bucs by 7 and lost to the Saints by 3.  Those are four teams who are all .500 or better this season, so they have played a brutal schedule.  Now they have had 2 weeks to regroup, rest and prepare to face the 2nd-worst team in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Jaguars had a fluky win in their opener over the Colts in which they were outgained by more than 200 yards.  They have since gone 0-5 with those five losses coming by an average of 12.6 points per game.  Their leaky defense has allowed at least 30 points in all 5 defeats.  Justin Herbert is proving to be a steal in the draft as he has been nothing but impressive.  He is completing 68.8% of his passes and 8.5 YPA with 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.  He will light up this soft Jacksonville defense as the Chargers let out some frustration here with a blowout victory off their bye.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucs/Raiders Sunday Night Game of the Year on Las Vegas +3

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders have wins over the Saints 34-24 and the Chiefs 40-32.  If those two results don’t tell you how capable this team is, I don’t know what will.  Yet the Raiders are once again getting overlooked as 3-point home dogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  This is a letdown spot for the Bucs off their huge win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week.  And we saw the Bucs go on the road and get beat by the Bears the last time they traveled as similar 3-point favorite.  The Raiders have an elite offense that score 30.2 PPG and will test this Tampa defense.  They are led by Derek Carr, who is having a career year with 73.1% completions and 11 touchdowns against only 1 interception this year.  He and Jon Gruden are on the same page right now.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in road games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Panthers/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Carolina +7.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight before laying an egg last week in a 16-23 home loss to the Chicago Bears.  It was a team not used to success, and they basically threw a pick-6 on their first drive and were chasing that 7 points the rest of the game.  They will had a chance to force OT at the end but came up short.  Look for them to come back with much better focus this week against a division rival in New Orleans.  And Teddy Bridgewater wants to prove to his former team that they made a mistake by going back to Drew Brees last season after Bridgewater had strung together several wins for them and looked impressive in doing so.  He might be the single-most underrated QB in the NFL today.  And Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength.  They lost to the Packers ar home and should have lost to the Chargers at home, but escaped with a 3-point victory.  They are beatable here in New Orleans, especially with the lack of fans due to the pandemic.  I think they are getting too much respect for home-field advantage here when there’s definitely not 7.5 points between these teams on a neutral.  Take Carolina.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

6* Packers/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +1

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Tampa Bay Bucs as home underdogs.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as a head coach in this league.  And it’s rare you get the chance to back Tom Brady as a home dog.  I like that combination.  The Packers don’t get the normal benefit of a bye week because the Bucs also had a makeshift bye of their own after playing the Bears last Thursday.  Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, but he’ll be up against an underrated Tampa Bay defense that only yields 298.2 YPG and 5.2 YPP this year.  To compare, the Packers give up 6.4 YPP on defense.  And I think both offenses will have success, but it’s the Tampa Bay defense that I trust to get the critical stops to win this game.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

6* Lions/Jaguars Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions’ 3 losses this season have come to the Bears, Packers and Saints who are a combined 11-3 on the season.  They also went on the road and beat the 3-2 Cardinals.  No team has played a tougher schedule than them.  And now they finally get a break and a bye week to get ready for the Jaguars.  This is a Jacksonville team coming off 4 straight losses by an average of 11.3 PPG.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a bye.  Take Detroit.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins haven’t lost by more than 10 points this season despite being 1-3.  Those 3 losses came to the Bills, Seahawks and Patriots who have combined to go 10-2.  They were in every game, and they will certainly be in this game against the 49ers, who are worse than all 3 of those teams due to all their injuries.  And the 49ers have been terrible as home favorites over the years.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -6.5 or more, which includes outright losses to both the Cardinals and Eagles this season.  Their only 2 wins this year came against the Giants and Jets, and I think most can agree those are the two worst teams in the NFL.  Take Miami.

6* LA/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Washington +7.5 

The Key: The Washington Football Team has new life with Kyle Allen replacing Dwayne Haskins.  Haskins was the worst starting quarterback in the NFL and turned the ball over too many times for Washington to have any chance of winning games.  The only game he didn’t turn it over they upset the Eagles.  Allen can only be an upgrade.  The Rams have one of the toughest early travel schedules that I’ve ever seen.  They have to go out East for the 3rd time in 4 weeks here after previously traveling to Philadelphia and Buffalo.  This is an early start time and a 10 AM body clock game for the Rams, which is always tough for West Coast teams.  Especially when having to do it 3 times in 4 weeks.  And the Rams showed signs of fatigue last week as they had to fight tooth and nail to beat the Giants 17-9 as 13-point favorites.  Their offense only had 240 total yards in that win.  And now they are up against another underrated defense here in Washington that should have Chase Young back healthy this week.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after a home game in which they won SU but did not cover the spread.  Take Washington. 

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

6* Saints/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +4.5

The Key: Drew Brees is just a shell of his former self.  He has lost a ton of arm strength and that has been on display this season.  They were fortunate to beat the Bucs in Week 1, then their defense got gashed in 24-34 and 30-37 losses to the Raiders and Packers.  They have impact injuries on both offense and defense.  Matthew Stafford is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  He guided the Lions to a gutsy 26-23 win at Arizona last week.  He did everything he could to avoid a 23-6 collapse against the Bears in Week 1 by driving the Lions down and throwing a perfect pass that was dropped in the end zone that would have been a game-winner.  And Stafford just got his favorite receiver in Kenny Golloday back from a 2-game absence last week against the Cardinals, so he now has his full compliment of weapons.  Take Detroit.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.

7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.