Levi M – Last Updated on February 14, 2023 7:58 am
Free Week 6 Prediction: Steelers vs. Buccaneers NFL Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free NFL Week 6 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Steelers taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, October 16th, 2022 at Acrisure Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Pittsburgh – Tampa Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Date: Sunday, October 16th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
NFL Week 6 ATS Betting Lines: Steelers +8 (-110) | Buccaneers -8 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 6 Moneyline Odds: Steelers +310 | Buccaneers -420
NFL Week 6 NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Pittsburgh has struggled to open the season to a tune of 4 losses through the first 5 weeks. Tampa is looking to continue getting back to form after a slow start to the year.
Whew, these are not your father’s Steelers. Tomlin may have finally met his match with a roster that has made it hard for even him to win. I actually rode with the Steelers last week catching 14 in western NY, seeing as Tomlin is one of the most successful ATS underdog coaches of all time, but even that trend wasn’t enough as Buffalo won easily, 38-3.
Really, we should have expected regression. Pittsburgh finished 9-7-1 in 2021 with a -55 scoring differential! Pythagorean win percentage had them more like a 7 win team and coming into this year, had an unsettled QB position and a mess of an offensive line. We all need to look at the Steelers a little differently this year.
On the other side of this matchup we have Tampa Bay, who while they were a favorite pick for the NFC, has looked less than spectacular to start the year. If it weren’t for a questionable roughing the passer call to keep the Bucs drive going, they may have lost to a peppy Falcons group.
There are a lot of games left to be played however, and the Bucs will look to continue cementing their place in the wide-open NFC playoff bracket.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday represented rookie QB Kenny Pickett’s first ever start in the NFL and unfortunately he had to face the NFL’s #2 defense by DVOA. Pittsburgh went pass heavy in this contest with the quick deficit, leaving Pickett to throw 52 times, accumulating 327 yards and 1 interception with no scores.
The ball was spread around a good bit; Pickens led the receiving group with 6 receptions, but Diontae Johnson commanded 13 targets, leading all pass catchers. Claypool and both running backs also kicked in some receptions.
It’s really difficult to glean much information from an incredibly weird game flow – I don’t see Pickett throwing 52 times again very soon – but with Football Outsiders’ handy dandy DVOA analysis, we can get some opponent adjustment and see how the Steelers performed relative to an average offense.
Pittsburgh has been closer to an average team passing the ball from a nominal standpoint, but relative to the league they’re 24th in passing. This week they draw Tampa Bay’s #1 passing defense by DVOA. So while Pickett should see an easier time passing with less disastrous game flows, this week represents a really tough matchup.
Though the Steelers’ offensive line has been fairly criticized, they’ve performed over expectation, both in line yards and in sacks allowed. The challenge will be keeping Pickett upright this week against TB’s #1 adjusted sack rate defense.
I’ve spilled a lot of digital ink on Pickett and the offense, but let’s turn our eyes over to the defense. They sorely miss TJ Watt, not just from a pass rushing perspective, but they’ve posted a poor win-loss record SU without Watt on the field. As a unit, DVOA places Pittsburgh smack dab in the middle of all teams. They don’t do any one thing excellently and rely on Fitzpatrick in the secondary, who was banged up on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I gave Tampa their flowers on the defensive side of the ball in the Pittsburgh excerpt, so let’s focus our view to the offense. Much has been made about Brady’s off the field life in the media, but how has the 45-year old signal caller performed within the lines?
Football Outsiders offers individual analysis in addition to their team statistics. Defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) is a clean way to normalize QB performance relative to average performance and adjusts for the opponent (sound familiar?). This statistics places Brady in 5th among qualified QBs, which tells us, Brady’s still got it.
Brady was missing some weapons to start the year, with Evans’ wild one-game suspension, Godwin’s recovery from injury and just a general lack of firepower at TE following Gronk’s stage left exit. DVOA is still bullish on Tampa Bay’s passing offense though, placing them 8th. As Godwin gets worked back into game shape, I expect this number to keep rising.
The rushing attack remains a travesty however, with the Bucs ranking a poor 29th. Fournette did post a nice statline in the box score from Sunday with 56 yards and a score on 14 carries, but most of his damage came in the receiving game. As the passing game wakes up from their nap, teams may stack the box less, opening up for easier carries.
While Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been as prolific as Buffalo’s they do profile similarly. To date, the Bills haven’t been able to run the ball (30th) but have been a powerhouse when passing. Buffalo just posted 432 passing yards against Pittsburgh’s defense, which included some homeruns. Tampa will look to exploit Pittsburgh’s generosity in the explosiveness department.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
- Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: Bucs -8
Alright, so the question is, does the Tomlin trend still apply? Not only is Pittsburgh coming off a blowout loss, but they’ll return home as 8 point underdogs. Since 2018, the Steelers are 7-1 ATS as home underdogs with their one loss coming this season. Losing Watt has been a massive hit to the Steelers W-L column and Matt Canada’s offense has been mostly unimaginative, so the Steelers are a hard sell.
Brady has played well against the Steelers in his career and overall I have the arrow pointing up on the Bucs. Between the pressure the Bucs have generated and Todd Bowles’ scheming, Tampa should have success against Pickett.
The move here is to grab Tampa -8 and gamble that a rookie signal caller will have trouble keeping pace.
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