Free NFL Wild Card Round Pick: Steelers vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills free Wild Card Round picks & NFL odds? NFL playoff betting sees the Steelers taking on the Bills on Sunday, January 14th at the Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Super Wildcard Weekend games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Pittsburgh Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Wild Card Round
(10-7, 10-7 ATS) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-10 ATS)
2024 Super Wildcard Weekend
Date: Sunday, January 14th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL Wild Card Round ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Pittsburgh +9.5 | Buffalo -9.5
Wild Card Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh +368 | Buffalo -492
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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Early betting lines heavily favor the #2 Bills by nearly 10 points in their matchup against the #7 Steelers. This is due to Buffalo’s impressive playoff history at Highmark Stadium, with a 4-1 record since 2017.
The Bills have secured playoff berths for five consecutive seasons, the second-longest streak in franchise history, surpassed only by their six-season run from 1988 to 1993.
Notably, this game marks their first-ever playoff meeting in Buffalo.
In their only head to head matchup last season, the Bills won by a score of 38-3.
The two teams scored 41 points which fell below the over/under line of 44.5. The Bills covered the spread in last year’s matchup, and offensively, the Bills finished with 432 passing yards and 120 rushing yards in their win.
As for Pittsburgh, they ended the game with 364 yards of total offense.
In the first half, Allen showcased a stellar performance with 348 passing yards, ranking among the NFL’s best opening two-quarter displays since 1991. He concluded the game with 20 completions on 31 attempts – the team’s second-highest and the most in a regulation-time game EVER.
The Steelers and Bills have clashed 29 times thru the years, including three postseason matchups. Pittsburgh have emerged victorious in 17, while the Bills have grabbed themselves 12 wins.
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How The Steelers & Bills Got Here
Pittsburgh secured a 17-10 victory as 3-point road favorites against the Ravens, while Tennessee’s win over Jacksonville on Sunday secured their final AFC wild card spot.
The Bills clinched the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the postseason with a remarkable 21-14 road win over the Dolphins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Leading up to their matchup with the Bills, the Steelers are 10-7.
They currently sit 3rd in the AFC-North and are in 7th place in the AFC. This season, the Steelers boast an above .500 record versus the spread, currently standing at 10-7.
After taking an early seven-point first quarter lead, the Steelers went on to pick up the win vs. the Ravens in Week 18. For the game, they averaged 4 yards per play leading to a total of 289 yards of offense.
Defensively, they allowed 106 yards rushing and 7.9 yards per completion. Going into the game, Pittsburgh was favored by 2.5 and went on to cover the spread.
Mason Rudolph threw for 152 yards while completing 90% of his passes and throwing for 152. Rudolph threw for one touchdown.
The Steelers are facing a significant injury setback in this matchup. T.J. Watt is highly unlikely to play due to an MCL sprain, which poses a considerable challenge for the Pittsburgh defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stats
Against the Ravens’ defense, Rudolph led the way with 152 passing yards and a completion rate of 90%. On the ground, the Steelers ran the ball 39 times for 155 yards. The team had 6 third-down conversions (40%).
At 17.9 points per contest, the Pittsburgh offense is 26th in the league.
The Pittsburgh defense has recorded 27 takeaways this season, which places them 5th in the NFL.
In terms of points allowed, their average of 19.1 is 6th in the league while giving up 342.1 yards per contest.
Buffalo Bills
Going into this Super Wild Card weekend AFC matchup, the Bills have an overall record of 11-6. In the AFC-East standings, the Bills are in 1st place and 2nd in the AFC. So far, they have gone 7-5 against AFC opponents and 7-2 at home.
The Bills’ have achieved an ATS record of 7-10 so far.
Despite a scoreless first quarter, the Bills managed to bounce back and secure the win against the Fins in week 18. On the offensive front, they accumulated 473 yards, while allowing 275 yards to the Dolphins.
Going into the game, Buffalo was favored by 2.5 and went on to cover the spread. Josh Allen threw for 359 yards while completing 78% of his passes and throwing for 359.
Allen threw for two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Buffalo’s offense generated 473 total yards against the Dolphins. On third downs, the Bills managed a conversion rate of 60%. Josh Allen led the team in rushing with 67 yards, while Allen passed for 359 yards.
On offense, the Bills are currently averaging 26.5 points per game, ranking them 6th in the NFL.
In terms of yards allowed, the Bills are 9th in the league while giving up 307.2 yards per contest.
Buffalo’s defense has allowed 18.3 points per game, placing them 4th in the NFL.
We’re going to get Mason Rudolph vs. Josh Allen in this one. Just that alone makes this game arguably the least compelling matchup on this wild card slate.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Steelers are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Steelers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Steelers vs. Bills Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steelers | +373 | +380 | +9.5 | +9.5 |
Bills | -498 | -505 | -9.5 | -9.5 |
4* Free Wildcard NFL Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh +9.5
The Steelers come in on the back of three straight wins with Mason Rudolph at QB. Cincinnati, Seattle, and Baltimore all went down to the Steelers in the seasons closing weeks. Their run-game proved to be nearly unstoppable.
The Steelers key to winning is obviously time of possession. The Steelers rank among the top five teams in rushing frequency, consistently challenging defenses with runs up the middle.
Najee Harris wrapped up the season with 255 carries, amassing 1,035 yards, boasting an average of 4.1 yards per carry, and scoring 8 touchdowns. His backfield partner, Jaylen Warren, accumulated 784 yards from 149 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, and notching 4 touchdowns.
Warren also contributed with 61 receptions.
Defensively, Pittsburgh looked good in their most recent game vs. Baltimore.
Trends. Pittsburgh holds a strong 13-7 record Against The Spread (ATS) in their last 20 games and has won 13 of them outright (SU – Straight Up). Facing Buffalo, the Steelers shine with an impressive 11-4 ATS record in their last 15, including 11 outright wins.
In contrast, Buffalo has faced recent struggles, going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. When favored, the Bills have a challenging 3-7 ATS record in their last 10.
For this week’s best bet, I like Pittsburgh to cover with the line currently sitting at +9.5.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 39.5 points.
The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 47 points.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Steelers’ last 5.
Steelers Bills NFL Handicapping
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
AFC EAST CHAMPIONS!!!!#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/oaLmejKqrd
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2024
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