2020 Dolphins QB Betting & Handicapping Picks
Have you stopped by Cappers Picks today looking for some Miami Dolphins Week 1 Starting Quarterback odds & a prediction? The Dolphins’ quarterback camp projects to be a crowded one with a pair of young prospects looking to usurp a stubborn incumbent. You can bet on the Week 1 starter in a 3-way prop.
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A year ago, Miami traded a a second and a fifth round pick for Josh Rosen, the tenth overall selection just a year earlier but available at fifty cents on the dollar after the Cardinals selected Kyler Murray first overall.
The investment did not payoff, at least not initially. Not only did Rosen fail to win the starting job, he failed to hold it for more than three weeks after Ryan Fitzpatrick flopped in the season’s first two games.
Fitzpatrick returned as the starter and went on to put up big numbers and turn the Dolphins into a frisky underdog in winning the team’s MVP award.
It would seem the Dolphins saw all they needed to see out of Rosen in his short stint as the starter. They spent the fifth overall pick this summer on Tua Tagovailoa, the prized young quarterback out of Alabama, to be their QB of the future.
The result is potentially three QBs who will enter camp desiring to win the starting job.
Dolphins’ Week 1 Starter Odds:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick -400
- Tua Tagovailoa +350
- Josh Rosen +2000
The old incumbent
Fitzpatrick is the obvious favorite, not only because he is still likely the most capable NFL signal-caller on the roster but because he wouldn’t still be on the roster if the Dolphins didn’t mean to play him.
But the price on him has shot up in recent weeks and -400 feels like too much when you consider the pressure he will face from not just one young QB but two.
He could get hurt. He will turn 38 in November and there’s still a lot of time between now and Week 1. He’s also on the decline, even though he didn’t show it last year. It’s just the fact of the age curve. Holding off two young prospects will require he doesn’t slip much from his level a season ago.
All that said, he does have the most direct path to winning this prop. In all likelihood, the Dolphins will hold back Tagovailoa and Fitzpatrick will win the job over Rosen without much trouble.
All the hype is surrounding Tagovailoa, who made a name for himself in 2018 when he came on as a true freshman in the National Championship Game to lead Alabama to victory.
In his last two seasons, in which he dealt with some injuries, he threw 76 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. His arm accuracy and mobility have Dolphin fans dreaming of the future already.
There will be pressure on the coaching staff to start Tagovailoa right away but it isn’t likely, especially after season-ending hip surgery in 2019.
Rosen is the third guy but he may offer the greatest upside in the current market. For if Fitzpatrick is hurt in the preseason or simply doesn’t perform as expected, Rosen could be the guy to bridge the gap to Tagovailoa.
It isn’t a likely possibility but it is one easy enough to imagine. It’s also being neglected by the public, which is both infatuated by Tagovailoa and naturally drawn to favorites.
So while Rosen will likely be a loser, he feels like a quality contrarian value play, considering he could be one Fitzpatrick injury away from being handed the job, at least in Week 1.
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