Free Week 5 Prediction: Bills vs. Steelers NFL Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Free NFL Week 5 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Steelers on Sunday, October 9th, 2022 at Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo – Pittsburgh matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Date: Sunday, October 9th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: Bills -14 (-110) | Steelers +14 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 5 Moneyline Odds: Bills -901 | Steelers +607
NFL Week 5 NFL Betting Total: O/U 47
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Buffalo showed championship mettle, coming back from a 17 point deficit in Baltimore on Sunday. The Steelers are in a different stage of team building and have turned the reins over to rookie, Kenny Pickett.
One of these teams is not like the other. One of these teams just doesn’t belong.
The trending arrow for these two teams could not be more different. Buffalo was preseason chalk on Super Bowl futures and have proved oddsmakers correct. Sean McDermott will certainly be considered for NFL Coach of the Year, while Josh Allen is the frontrunner for MVP.
There were signs coming into the year that Pittsburgh would struggle mightily, but most of the NFL community (myself included) expected Mike Tomlin to somehow keep it together.
That just hasn’t been the case, forcing Pittsburgh’s hand into starting Kenny Pickett over Mitch Trubisky. Far too many issues exist for Pittsburgh to make real noise, but if they can figure out their QB position moving forward, that would be considered a big win.
This is the biggest spread of the year and one that will require close consideration.
Buffalo Bills
Let’s start here: good teams find a way to win. After trailing Baltimore 20-3, Buffalo managed to get a critical score before half to cut the lead. Half time adjustments — another hallmark of a good team — led to the Ravens getting shutout in the second half en route to a 23-20 come from behind win for the Bills.
Josh Allen is known for his cannon of an arm, but he’s also one of the league’s most unstoppable running QB’s. His sheer size makes him a tough tackle and it came in handy as he struggled throwing in bad weather on Sunday. His 11 rushes for 70 yards and a score paced all ball carriers for Buffalo and brought them within a tie heading into the fourth quarter.
Stefon Diggs had yet another good week but will now face Pittsburgh’s 12th rated pass defense. Gabe Davis missed last week’s game and is critical to Buffalo’s passing attack so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status.
Even with losing Micah Hyde for the year, the Bills have maintained the NFL’s #1 passing defense by DVOA. This week they’ll draw a rookie quarterback in his second start ever, behind an offensive line that surrendered 3 sacks to the Jets. A rookie QB under fire all day is highly likely to lead to some costly turnovers which Buffalo should feast on.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Looking purely at the box score, Kenny Pickett’s three interceptions stick out in less than a full game workload, but two of them weren’t entirely his fault. Chase Claypool didn’t help him on a deep shot to the goal line, tipping the ball into the hands of the defender and the second interception was a game-ending Hail Mary attempt.
So we need to take his statline with a grain of salt, but the local product certainly has his work cut out for him against a Buffalo defense that is top-6 in pressure rate and #1 in defensive adjusted sack rate. Fortunately for him, it is still unclear when Tre’Davious White will make his return.
The Steelers struggled to get much going on the ground and it might not get any better this week. George Pickens had his best receiving game in his rookie year and Pat Freiermuth saw plenty of work. It is unsurprising to see a tight end find an uptick in his production with a young signal caller.
Mike Tomlin generally maintains a good defense though, and that’s reflected in their top-10 mark in defense by DVOA. Though they rank top-10 in defensive adjusted sack rate, they only managed one sack and 6 QB hits against an offensive line that was considered by many to be in shambles. Due to Buffalo’s poor rushing attack, they can stay in this one if Minkah Fitzpatrick and Co. can figure out how to produce just enough coverage.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing Buffalo
- Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
- Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh +14
Look, there’s a chasm between these two teams on paper, but Mike Tomlin is one of the most successful underdog coaches in the NFL. Giving Tomlin 14 points (or any team for that matter) is just far too many points for me to not take.
I know there’s a rookie QB and I know how good Buffalo is, but Pittsburgh is usually pretty good at mucking up a game. The under could even see a play, especially if the weather is poor, but we might not see a line hit 14 again this year, so I’ll be opportunistic.
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