Free Pick: Nuggets vs. Wolves Odds
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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
(1-1) Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1)
Date: Apr 23, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: The Target Center, Minnesota
NBA Moneyline Odds: Nuggets -130 | Wolves +110 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Nuggets -2| Wolves +2
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 234
Here’s why I’m taking the visiting favorites as per below in my Wolves Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for Game 3 of the West’s #3 vs. #6 NBA playoffs matchup.
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Nuggets vs. Wolves Gameday
Game two is in the books, and now the teams change venues. Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets is on tap as the closing match of the night (9:30 p.m).
What was anticipated to be the most competitive of the eight playoff series has lived up to expectations through two matches. The Wolves evened the series by winning Game 2 by a score of 119-114. These teams are 15-15 through their last 30 matches, so this feels like it could go seven.
Denver had five players score in double figures, led by Jamal Murray with 30, along with seven rebounds, seven assists, and six 3-pointers. Nikola Jokic flirted with a triple-double with 24 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists.
Minnesota had six players score in double figures, led by Anthony Edwards scoring 30 points on one leg with 10 rebounds and three stocks. As a team, they shot 41% from deep and looked like the fresher team to end the match.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds & Last 5
The teams played four times this season, with the Nuggtes winning three of the four meetings.
The clubs have a playoff history, having faced each other three times in prior seasons, with the Wolves winning two of those series.
It’s also the third time in the last three seasons the clubs have met, with the most recent series occurring two seasons ago when the Wolves overcame a double-digit deficit in Game 7 in Denver to dispense of the Nuggets.
Coming into the playoffs, the Wolves dealt with copious injuries to their core, specifically missing Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Minny went 3-2 in the final five games and was middling, going 5-5 through the last 10 matches.
In contrast, the Nuggets were on fire to close the season on a 12-game winning streak, including victories versus six playoff seeds and two current play-in teams.
Denver is favored by two points with an over/under of 234 points.
Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (121.2) and 21st defensively (116.0) while they are seventh in net rating (+5.2) and rank 20th in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averages 122.1 points per game while its opponents average 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 29.0 (fourth) and 44.0 (14th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (27.7), **rebounding (12.9), assists (10.7), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.1).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 39.6% (1st in NBA) with 12 (!!!) players shooting above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Wolves Stats
Minnesota ranks fourth (119.9) on offense and 14th on defense (114.3). Additionally, the Wolves hold the sixth-ranked net rating (+5.6) and run the 17th-quickest pace (101.04).
Through 13 games, the Wolves are showcasing improved offense with the second-best perimeter efficiency (40.6%) as well as the second-best field goal efficiency (50.5%).
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves bottom line:
Aaron Gordon hasn’t been the factor I expected and I’m wondering whether this is just a bad matchup for him or if he isn’t healthy enough to be a force.
Jokic and Murray are doing their parts but they need one more player to step up and ideally be a force on the defensive side as well. That’s a job earmarked for Gordon (especially with Peyton Watson out), so hopefully he finds his legs soon, but he enters this match listed as questionable (calf).
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Basketball Betting Trends
- Denver is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games.
- Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Minnesota.
- Also, Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games.
- Additionally, Minnesota is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games played in April.
Nuggets Wolves Free Pick: Nuggets -2
Here is my Nuggets Wolves free pick.
The Nuggets finally lost a game after winning 13 in a row, but looked susceptible in the loss. Chris Finch (who is out coaching Adelman) elected to go at both Jokic and Murray on the defensive end of the hardwood, and it paid dividends.
By game’s end, both were leaning over, clutching at their shorts, and they made uncharacteristic guffaws. Just during clutch time, Jokic had an easy path for one of his patented hook shots, but passed the ball instead. Murray dribbled the air out of the ball with time running out and down by three — but he attempted a two-point shot. (???)
You have to figure it was fatigue that led to those foggy-headed decisions. We’ll see if Adelman can make the appropriate tweaks in Game 3 to allow them to be fresher at game’s end, while still in the match.
Minnesota ranks 29th in free throw percentage while the Nuggets rank fifth with the second most made shots. In a series where a few points could decide every game that’s a considerable advantage.
Anthony Edwards still looks hampered, so he’s likely playing on a less-than-healthy knee because the burst isn’t there the entire game. Kudos to him, though, for gutting it out.
The Wolves’ bench improved in Game 2, with the reserves outscoring Denver by 10. Back at home, this could be a real advantage for Minny as reserves tend to play better at home.
This series has been by far the most entertaining, and I suspect Game 3 will be no different. It’s such a well-matched series that it’s either team’s to win. I picked Denver preseason and have stuck with them, but the opponent I fear could knock them out is Minny.
With that, I’ll still roll with Denver as they need to win and send a message to the Wolves, who arrive back home confident. Just ask Jaden McDaniels, who provided locker room fodder and motivation for Denver (see Tweet of the Day).
Take the Nuggets to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Jaden McDaniels, deadpan delivery, on what worked for the Timberwolves offensively.
Jaden: Go at Jokic, Jamal, all the bad defenders. Tim Hardaway, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, their whole team.”
Q: They’re all bad defenders?
Jaden: “Yeah, they’re all bad defenders.” pic.twitter.com/Lbjq7je9Fo
— Chris Hine (@ChristopherHine) April 21, 2026
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