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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
Update: Elliott will play, but I'm still on the Chiefs! The set-up: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. However, KC got back on the winning track this past Monday with a 29-19 home win over the Broncos. KC used a combo of five FGs and five turnovers (a fumble was returned 45 yards for a TD) in moving to 6-2 at the season's mid-point. KC is 'sitting pretty" in the AFC West, as no other team owns a .500 record. The Dallas Cowboys won 33-19 at Washington last Sunday and the win gets them to 4-3, although the Cowboys are in the same division (NFC East) as the Eagles, who own the NFL's best record at 7-1. The even bigger news may be that just when Dallas appeared to be gaining momentum, the drawn-out Ezekiel Elliott suspension saga seems to have ended with the Elliott expected to begin his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy with this Week 9 contest. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith had an off game last Monday (14 of 31) but he still hasn't thrown an interception in 259 attempts in 2017. He comes into this game completing 69.1 percent for 2,181 yards with 16 TDs and a QB rating of 115.4 (best in the NFL). Rookie RB Hunt was held to 46 yards rushing (2.1 YPC) but he has an NFL-best 763 (5.2 YPC & 4 TDs) on the season, while adding 28 catches (2 TDs). TE Kelce had a big game on Monday, catching seven passes for 133 yards and a TD, giving him a team-high 44 catches and four TDs on the season. The offense is third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 PPG) and total yards (377.9 per), which has made up for a defense not playing nearly as well as past KC stop units. KC ranks 30th in allowing 392.2 YPG and 19th in allowing 22.5 PPG. Dallas; Ezekiel Elliott has 690 yards (4.2 YPC) and six TDs for a running game averaging 150.6 YPG (2nd-best). However, with Elliott out, Dallas will turn to Alfred Morris as the starter with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith serving as backups.Can those guys give Dak Prescott 'the cover' Elliott has? There has been no "sophomore jinx" for Prescott, who is completing 62.8 percent for 1,569 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (96.6 QB rating). He's also has 168 rushing yards (7.3 YPC & 3 TDs), while leading an offense that's averaged 28.3 PPG (5th). The defense is nothing special, allowing 23.0 PPG (20th). The pick: My bet says it will make a HUGE difference that Elliott is not around and while Dallas has won eight of its last 10 home games, those two losses have come in the Cowboys' last TWO home games, falling 35-30 to the Rams (Week 4) and 35-31 to the Packers (Week 5). The Chiefs had their nine-game road winning streak snapped when they lost 31-30 at Oakland (in Week 7), on the game's final play. KC enters 14-3 ATS over the team's last 17 road games which is good enough for me to make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -104 | 91 h 10 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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11-05-17 | Ravens v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens have had an extra few days to enjoy the team's 40-0 win over the Dolphins in a Thursday night Week 8 game. QB Flacco did not play well and left with a concussion on a vicious hit by Miami's Kiko Alonso. However, Flacco returned to the team the next day vastly improved and is on the path to make the start, according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Tennessee Titans come into this contest off their bye week and will look to maintain their spot atop the AFC South standings with a win. The Titans are 4-3 (tied with the Jags), after an unimpressive 12-9 overtime victory at Cleveland in Week 7. Baltimore: Flacco has failed to throw for more than 235 yards in any game this season (Baltimore ranks 32nd with 152.9 YPG passing) plus the veteran has thrown just six TDs against eight INTs on the season, giving him a poor 72.3 QB rating. Flacco was held out of practice for most of the week but he's the team's No. 1 QB and Harbaugh said he would start if he was cleared by the medical department. RB Alex Collins ran for a career-high 113 yards vs. Miami and the Ravens rank seventh with 126.9 YPG on the ground. The Ravens' defense was terrific vs. the Dolphins, returning two interceptions for TDs in the most lopsided shutout in franchise history (Miami had just 196 yards of total offense and was 4 for 15 on 3rd downs). On the season, Baltimore is allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on 317.2 YPG (10th). Tennessee: Speaking of defense, the Titans totally dominated the Browns back in Week 7, holding the Browns to 284 yards of total offense in the win. Offensively, Mariota was 21 of 34 for 203 yards but DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined to rush for only 72 yards on 31 carries. That effort was not typical, as Tennessee comes in averaging 124.6 YPG (8th). The Titans' defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (26th) on the season but over the last three games, Tennessee has held its opponents to 15.7 PPG. The pick: Currently, Mariota owns a huge edge over Flacco and he is expected to get a boost with the return of WR Corey Davis, who was the fifth pick in last year's draft. He had six catches in Week 1 but has missed most of the season with a significant hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Monday and looks ready to jump right into the team's No. 1 receiver role. Davis set an FBS record with 5,285 career receiving yards at Western Michigan. Another edge for the Titans is PK Ryan Succop, who has made 55 straight FGs inside 50-yards! The Titans have covered six of their last seven in Nashville. Make Tennessee an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | LSU +21 v. Alabama | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Alabama opened as the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and has held that spot ever since, opening 8-0, including 5-0 in the SEC. However, The Crimson Tide found themselves at No. 2 in the first CFP rankings, which came out Tuesday night. It's no big deal, as it's very likely that Alabama and the CFP's No. 1 team, Georgia, will meet in the SEC championship game on Dec. 2nd. As the saying goes, "there is a long way to go before we sleep." For Alabama, the task at hand is its home game with LSU this Saturday. A month ago, this Nov. 4th game looked like an easy win for the Crimson Tide. The Tigers opened 2-0 but then got blown out 37-7 at Mississippi St and two weeks later, suffered a baffling home setback to Troy, 24-21 (as a three-TD favorite!). However, the Tigers have ripped off three straight wins since that debacle and at 6-2 overall, including 3-1 in the SEC, still have a chance to claim the SEC West title. LSU: QB Danny Etling doesn't produce big passing numbers, as LSU averages just 201.5 YPG through the air, which ranks 84th. However, he's careful with the football, throwing just one interception in 155 attempts, while throwing for nine TDs. RB Derrius Guice opened with back-to-back 100-yard games but over the next five weeks (he missed the Troy game), never ran for more than 76 yards. However, he racked up a whopping 276 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries in LSU's recent 40-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers had three sacks and three INTs, giving up 347 yards of total offense and held Ole Miss to 3 for 12 on 3rd down, while holding the Rebels to just over 22 minutes of possession in the win. LSU will always play D and this year's no different. The Tigers are allowing 20.0 PPG (27th) on 319.2 YPG (21st). Alabama: The Tide romped past Tennessee 45-7 on Oct. 21 and took the final Saturday of October off. Speaking of a team playing defense, Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (9.8 PPG), is second in total defense (237.8 YPG) and firstin rrushing defense (68.1 YPG) while ranking 10th in passing defense (169.6 YPG). Offensively, QB Jalen Hurts (like Etling), has thrown just one interception (151 pass attempts) with nine TD passes. He is also a very dangerous runner, with 572 YR (6.8 YPC & 6 TDs). He joins RBs Harris (697 YR / 8.6 YPC / 10 TDs) and Scarbrough (327 YR / 4.7 YPC / 6 TDs) to give Alabama the seventh-best running game in the nation at 298.8 YPG. Alabama's 43.0 PPG scoring average is fifth-best. The pick: Alabama has won the last six meetings, including a 10-0 victory last season. However, that makes it seven of the last 10 meetings between these two rivals having been decided by 10 points or less! Too many points here to give LSU. Make them a 10* play. |
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11-04-17 | Stanford +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Stanford (CFP) will travel to Martin Stadium in Pullman, Wa. on Saturday afternoon to to take on No. 25 Washington State. The Cardinal escaped when they edged Oregon State 15-14, playing without star RB Bryce Love a week ago Thursday. Stanford improved to 6-2 (5-1 Pac-12) on the season and now face the Cougars, who dropped to 7-2 (4-2 in Pac-12) on the season after falling at the Arizona Wildcats 58-37, this past Saturday. Stanford owns a 40-26-1 series lead but Washington State won last year at Stanford, 42-16 as a seven-point underdog. Stanford: Without Love, QB Keller Chryst completed 16 of 33 passes for 141 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the Oregon State 'escape.' The Cardinal were out-gained by the Beavers by a 264-222 margin but won the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. Despite its 15-point output vs. Oregon State, Stanford comes in averaging 35.2 PPG (30th) on 427.0 YPG (49th). The key is Bryce Love, who has run for 1,387 yards on 10.3 YPC with 11 TDs. QB Chryst is pretty average, completing just 54.2 % with eight TDs and four INTs. In fact, many fans are calling for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello. Stanford's defense is solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (33rd) on 397.8 YPG (78th). Washington State: The Cougars opened 6-0 and wwere No. 8 in the AP poll when they lost 37-3 at Cal. WSU bounced back with a 28-0 home win over Colorado but then got blasted 58-37 at Arizona, unable to stop Wildcat QB Tate, who passed for 275 yards (two TDs) and ran for 146 yards (one TD). QB Luke Falk has 23 TD passes and 2,576 passing yards and continues to climb the NCAA all-time leader boards. However, Tyler Hilinski replaced Luke Falk late in the first half of the Arizona game and ignited what had been a sputtering offense. Head coach Mike Leach said he initially pulled Falk out of the game to allow the quarterback "to see the field because we weren't pushing the ball down the field. Then Hilinski was hot, so we stayed with Hilinski." The redshirt sophomore completed 45 of 61 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for two scores but was intercepted four times, the last one returned 66 yards by Colin Schooler for a touchdown. The pick: WSU's defense opened the season playing well but allowing 37 points at Cal and 58 at Arizona raises big questions. Love is arguably the nation's best RB but missed last week's 15-14 win over Oregon State with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. However, the Cardinal are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. I noted earlier that WSU won last season's game but that ended an eight-game losing streak to Stanford, which included Stanford winning the last four meetings here in Pullman. Make Stanford an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | Penn State -8 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -125 | 64 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions led Ohio State in Columbus 21-3 in the early second quarter and entered the 4th quarter with a 35-20 lead, However, J.T. Barrett's 4th-quarter onslaught (he completed his final 16 passes!) led the Buckeyes to a 39038 comeback win. The defeat left Penn State at 7-1 (4-1 in the Big Ten) and James Franklin's squad opened No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings released this week. It was not a pleasant Saturday last weekend for Michigan State either, as the Spartans also suffered a difficult defeat, falling 39-31 in three overtimes at Northwestern. MSU is 6-2 and like Penn State, 4-1 in the Big Ten East. Both schools are a game behind the first-place Buckeyes, who check in at 5-0. The loser here drops out of the Big Ten hunt. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were guilty of some conservative offensive play-calling late against Ohio State but many teams have won at the Horseshoe since Meyer arrived. Michigan State: The Spartans lost last Saturday, despite QB Brian Lewerke setting school records for passing yards (445) and completions (39) against Northwestern. His 57 passing attempts tied for the second-highest total in program history. A negative was that he was also was the leading rusher with just 30 yards, as team season leader LJ Scott (511 yards) was held to 16 and committed his fifth fumble, continuing a season-long issue for the Spartans. Lewerke is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions. The Spartans' ground game let them down last week but it is averaging 167.1 YPG on the season (63rd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 19.6 PPG (24th) on 283.4 YPG (8th). The pick: Both teams own strong defenses but Penn State is averaging more than two TDs per game more than MSU, 39.6-to-23.8). Penn St. owns a much-better balanced offense, as the Spartans have averaged just 2.5 YPC their last two games. That won't cut it vs. Penn State, which is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten games and 16-3-2 ATS in its last 21 games, overall. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, as well. Make that 7-0 and make Penn St. an 8* play. |
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11-03-17 | Celtics v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost their season-opener at Cleveland plus FA acquisition Gordon Hayward to a season-ending injury, as well. Boston then lost its second game to Milwaukee but the Celtics have since won and covered six in a row. Boston will play tonight in OKC (second-half of the ESPN doubleheader), going up against the "new-look" Thunder, who may be just 4-3 but own the NBA's top point-differential at plus-10.9 PPG (Celtics check in at No. 2, at plus-9.2 PPG). Boston: Brad Stevens has well-established himself as one of the league's elite head coaches but he's adding to his resume in the early going of the current season. Boston, without Hayward, has been led by PG Irving (21.8 & 5.5 APG) and a strong performance from its starting frontcourt. Second-year forward Brown (16.2 & 5.9) and rookie forward Tatum (13.8 & 6.6) surround center Horford (14.0 & 9.1). Returning to Irving for a minute, he has scored at least 20 points in each of the six straight wins and he is ranked second in the league in steals (2.63 per game). Supplying solid support in the backcourt for Irving are Smart and Rozier (both are averaging 9.8 PPG), who are also combing to add 9.3 RPG. That said, defense has been the key, as Boston has held each of its six straight 'victims' to 94 points or fewer and enter this game allowing a league-low 93.8 PPG. OKC: After averaging a triple-double for the season last year, Russell Westbrook won the MVP. However, OKC knew its team was nowhere near ready to compete with the Warriors. Two big trades brought Carmelo (NYK) and Paul George (Ind) to the Thunder. Interestingly, Westbrook (19.6-9.9-11.7) is just shy of averaging another triple-double but The pick:The Celtics are not the only team playing excellent defense, as OKC ranks third in the NBA, allowing 95.7 PPG, which is more than 10 points fewer than last season. Offensively, the scoring distribution has played out seamlessly, at least so far. I noted earlier that OKC is just 4-3 to open the season but a closer look reveals that all four of the team's wins (AND covers) have come against Eastern Conference opponents. Boston my be 'the best in the East" for now but I'll make OKC a 10* play. |
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11-03-17 | Memphis -11.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday and while all attention was rightly paid to the top-four, schools from what's called "The Group of Five" also had a rooting interest. The school with the highest ranking from those non-Power Conferences will earn a bid to a "New Year's Six" bowl game. Unbeaten UCF currently holds the highest current ranking among the "Group of Five" schools at No. 18 but the Memphis is lurking, with its No. 24 ranking. However, the Tigers are 'playing from behind,' as their lone loss of 2017 was a 40-13 defeat at UCF back on Sep. 30th. Memphis is currently 7-1 (4-1 in the AAC West) as it visits Chapman Stadium in Tulsa on Friday night. The Golden Hurricane are only 2-7 overall, including 1-4 in the AAC West. Memphis: The Tigers have won four in a row since losing at UCF, averaging a whopping 49.5 PPG. QB Riley Ferguson is completing a modest 59.7 percent of his passes but Memphis ranks 10th at 329.0 YPG through the air. Ferguson has 23 TDs and just seven INTs, after throwing three or more TD passes in four of his last seven games. Memphis averages 42.5 PPG (8th) on 500.2 YPG (11th) but its defense allows 33.4 YPG (103rd) on 468.0 YPG (118th). Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane could use a win, after losing six of their last seven games. Tulsa depends on its running game, which averages 260.2 YPG (12th). It's led by Brewer (980 YR / 4.9 YPC / 8 TDs) and Brooks (687 YR / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs). The Golden Hurricane can put points on the board (32.9 PPG ranks 38th on 446.2 YPG which ranks 35th) but defense has been a problem. Tulsa allows 37.7 PPG (120th) on a whopping 550.1 YPG (129th). The pick: Some say Memphis QB Ferguson is an NFL prospect, while Tulsa now starts redshirt freshman Luke Skipper, who will be making only his fourth start. There is talk that Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, has become a hot prospect as a potential candidate to fill the opening at Florida (Gators just parted ways with Jim McElwain over the weekend) but Norvell held a team meeting on Monday to discuss the rumors with his players. I'm not concerned with that "distraction," as Memphis is playing with a huge revenge motive, as Tulsa, as a six-point dog, won 59-30 at Memphis last season. However, this year's 2-7 Tulsa team bears little resemblance to last year's 10-3 squad. Lay the points and make Memphis an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Lakers +7 v. Blazers | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 LA Lakers will be up in Portland tonight to take on the 4-4 Blazers at Moda Center. The Lakers enter off a 20-point home win over the Pistons, who were coming off a shocking 115-107 win at Golden St. in their previous game. The Blazers lost 112-103 last night in Salt Lake City to the Jazz in OT but get right back on the court tonight, as they open a six-game homestand. Recent (and not so recent) history is on Portland's side, as the Blazers have won 12 straight meetings with the Lakers', whose last victory over Portland came back on March 3rd of 2014. The Blazers were 4-0 against the Lakers last season, winning by an average margin of 13.3 PPG. LA Lakers: Lonzo Ball was one of seven Lakers to score in double figures against the Pistons and chipped in six rebounds, three assists and two blocks without a turnover in a stat line that did not show his true value. "Take away the Phoenix game, this is the best game he's played, I thought," Los Angeles coach Luke Walton told reporters of Ball, who scored 29 points against the Suns earlier in the season. "The way that his pace was, the way he pushed the ball all the time. He was in the other team's paint. He just set the tone, and I thought the whole team fed off the way he was playing." LA is well-balanced, as eight players are averaging between 10.4 and 14.7 PPG. Clarkson (14.7) leads in scoring and Ball checks in at 10.4, along with 7.3 RPG and 7.0 APG. However, he'll have to shoot better than the 33.3 percent he's currently making on shots from the floor, including 28.6 percent on threes. Portland: The Blazers have lost two straight with Lillard (25.4-5.4-6.0) getting limited support during the team's two-game skid. He's scored 69 of the team's 186 points or more than 37 percent of its outcome. Only one other player reached double figures in Monday's 99-85 loss to Toronto (McCollum had 16) and just two, Jusuf Nurkic (19 points) and C.J. McCollum (16), scored in double digits in Wednesday's loss. The pick: Sure, the Blazers have won 12 straight in the series but offense has been a problem for the Blazers to open the 2017-18 season, with Portland shooting 42.4 percent from the floor, which ranks 28th in the NBA. Portland shot only 39.8 percent from the floor against the Jazz, making 9 of 34 shots from three-point range, that's 26.5 percent. Portland opened 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) but limps in having lost three of four and on an 0-4 ATS run. Take the points and make the Lakers a 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: It's “Thursday Night Football” on the NFL Network from MetLife Stadium when the 5-2 Buffalo Bills square off against AFC East rival, the 3-5 NY Jets. The Bills are a huge surprise in 2017, as if the playoffs were to begin this weekend, Buffalo would be the AFC's No. 1 wild card team. The Jets opened 0-2 but then ripped off three straight wins but while playing very competitively the last three weeks, have fallen 24-17 at home to the Pats, 31-28 at Miami and 25-20 at home to the Falcons. Buffalo: The Bills come in having won four of their last five, beating the Broncos, Falcons, Buccaneers and Raiders. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but it's running game wasn't doing much early and QB Tyrod Taylor is not good enough to carry this team. However, Buffalo's defense has been superb all season, holding opponents to just 16.4 PPG, third-best in the NFL. It's also noteworthy that the Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin. However, the key the last two weeks is the re-birth of Buffalo's running game, as the Bills have run for 173 and 165 yards in wins over Tampa Bay and Oakland since returning from a bye week. It's not a small deal, as after averaging 17.8 PPG through its first five games, Buffalo has scored 30 points in beating the Bucs and 34 points in beating the Raiders. NY Jets: Hard-fought losses are starting to pile up and the optimism of the team's three-game winning streak is starting to fade. Veteran Matt RB Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons but QB Josh McCown recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent). What's more, the journeyman has nine TD passes over his last four games, three times posting QB ratings of 100-plus. In stark contrast to the Bills who have just three giveaways, the Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 s The pick: The Bills have not won the division since 1995 and would move into a tie with the idle New England Patriots for first place in the division with a win. Let's also note that the Bills gave notice that are serious about ending the team's 17-year playoff drought (NFL's longest current) by acquiring WR Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. However, I don't trust Buffalo away from home. The Jets have blown 14-point leads to the Patriots and the Dolphins plus led the Falcons going into the fourth quarter before losing these last three weeks. "Fourth time" is the charm! The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS the last six weeks and 4-0 ATS at home in 2017. Make the Jets an 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The expansion Vegas Golden Knights are 8-3-0, a record made more remarkable by the goaltender 'carousel' they've had to deal with. The Golden Knights will visit the TD Garden on Thursday night to play the 4-3-3 Boston Bruins, who have their own health issues of late. Both teams will be looking to snap two-game losing skids in tonight's contest. The Bruins wil be playing with revenge, as they lost in Las Vegas 3-1 back on Oct. 15. Vegas: The Golden Knights left Nevada with an 8-1-0 overall mark, after finishing a 6-1-0 homestand. However, they were 0-2 in New York, losing 6-3 to the Islanders in Brooklyn on Monday after leading 2-1 late in the second period and then squandered a two-goal third-period lead and fell 6-4 to the Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Maxime Lagace became the fourth goaltender to start for the Golden Knights this season after turning aside 32 shots in a 6-4 loss at the New York Rangers on Tuesday. "I'm taking the experience in and I'm having fun with all of that. I wish we won (Tuesday) but it's going to be refocus for next game," said the 24-year-old Lagace, who made his second appearance and first NHL start after Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), Malcolm Subban (lower body) and Oscar Dansk (lower body) were placed on injured reserve. Boston: The Bruins are 1-0-3 over their last four games. Goalie Tuukka Rask has lost five straight, after falling in a shootout on Monday after his team rallied from three goals down to force overtime. The loss came two nights after Rask and the Bruins were stunned by a last-second overtime defeat that saw the Los Angeles Kings score off a faceoff in the Boston zone with nine-tenths of a second remaining. The Bruins have also been dealing with all kinds of injury and illness. It was announced on Wednesday that veteran David Backes is having surgery to remove part of his colon after his bout with diverticulitis. With David Krejci (back) still not on the ice for practice Wednesday, Jordan Szwarz was recalled from Providence of the American Hockey League. Zane McIntyre was recalled on an emergency basis because backup goalie Anton Khudobin is battling a lower-body injury. The pick: Boston may actually have more issues than the Vegas and Rask, after winning his first start of the season, has gone 0-3-2 since. He has a 2.93 goals-against average and .898 save percentage. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Vegas an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Ball State +24 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
The set: If it's November, then it's weekday football games in the MAC. This Thursday night game features the 2-6 Ball State Cardinals against the 2-7 Eastern Michigan Eagles. Both teams come in on losing streaks. The Cardinals lost 58-17 to the visiting Toledo Rockets on Homecoming (Oct. 26), the team's fifth consecutive loss. Eastern Michigan also played and lost on Oct. 26th, 30-27 in OT at Northern Illinois, the Eagles' sixth straight loss. Toledo and Northern Illinois are both 4-0 in the MAC West, while Ball State and Eastern Michigan are both 0-4. This is not exactly a marquee matchup. Ball State: The Cardinals opened with a close loss at Illinois and then won its next two. However, the team has lost five in a row since and comes in averaging only 19.1 PPG (119th) on 341.4 YPG (109th) on the season. Defensively, the Cardinals allow 37.6 PPG (118th) on 412.5 YPG (86th). Head coach HC Mike Neu has to be frustrated, as he's lost three QBs and will likely go with redshirt freshman Drew Plitt again. Eastern Michigan: The Eagles opened the 2017 season 2-0 but enter this contest on a six-game slide. However, the Eagles have been competitive in all six defeats, losing three in OT and the other three by margins of four, five and one. EMU is poor offensive team, averaging just 20.8 PPG (115th). The Eagles have no running game to speak of, averaging 94.1 YPG (127th). Defensively, the Eagles are solid, allowing 21.1 PPG (35th) on 357.9 YPG (37th).The pick: Both teams enter on losing streaks (see above) but Eastern Michigan has been the more competitive team during its skid. EMU won last year's game (48-41 at Ball State) but that was just the Eagles' second win over the last 12 meetings of this series. This huge pointspread makes little sense. Take the points and make Ball State a 10* play. |
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11-01-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Toronto: DeMar DeRozan scored 25 points in the win at Portland, his fifth straight outing with at least 24 following an 11-point effort in the season opener. He's averaging 23.7 PPG on the season, while backcourt partner Kyle Lowry chips in 13.5-5.9-7.3, after he had a season-high 19 points to go along with 10 assists against the Blazers. Toronto is showing excellent depth early on, with 10 players averaging between 5.8 and 15.0 PPG behind DeRozan, led by PF Ibaka (15.0 & 5.0). Center Valanciunas was averaging 14.0 & 9.5 but has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. The Raptors are averaging 109.0 PPG (7th) but have shown an ability to play better defense in the early going as well, allowing 98.2 PPG (5th). Denver: The Nuggets rallied from a 22-point halftime deficit to take a brief third-quarter lead on Sunday at MSG but in the end fell 116-110 to the Knicks, as Kristaps Porzingis scored a career-high 38 points. Center Jokic leads with 17.3 & 11.1, backed by five others in double digits. That group includes guards Harris (14.4), Barton (13.9), Murray (12.3) and Mudiay (11.6) plus PF Millsap (14.1 & 7.9). The pick: Denver has played five of its first seven games on the road and now is home for awhile. Defense and turnovers have been a problem for the Nuggets, while the Raptors played tough at the Spurs and Warriors to open their six-game trip, before winning two in a row (have covered three straight). Toronto won two close games over Denver last season and this pointspread makes them a 10* play in this first meeting of this season. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: NFL Week 8 concludes with a MNF matchup featuring an AFC West showdown between the 3-3 Denver Broncos and the 5-2 KC Chiefs. Both teams limp in off back-to-back losses, with the Broncos coming off having been shut out last Sunday 21-0 by the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. Denver: Trevor Siemian has taken a lot of the 'heat' for the Broncos' 21-0 loss to the Chargers but he sure hasn't been helped by the fact that C.J. Anderson, after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, has totaled just 61 yards on the ground over the team's last two games (both losses). Anderson had just 44 yards vs. the Chargers, with Siemian going 25 of 35 passing with an interception (only 207 yards). The Broncos are averaging only 18.0 PPG (24th) but the team's defense is holding opponents to an NFL-low 258.5 YPG! That said, Denver's allowing 19.7 PPG, which is only 11th-best. Kansas City: The Chiefs have dropped two straight but don't look for their QB to be at fault. Alex Smith has continued to carve out a career-best season," completing 72.4 percent with 15 TD passes and zero INTs (in 228 pass attempts) for a QB rating of 120.5. TE Kelce (37 catches and & TDs) and WR Hill (36 catches & 5 TDs) have been terrific, as has rookie RB Hunt. He's run for 717 yards (5.8 YPC & 4 TDs) plus caught 25 passes for three TDs. What 'killed' KC in the last-second loss at Oakland was an 'ugly' outing from the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed 505 yards and 32 FDs. KC's defense has slacked off in 2017 (while the offense has surged), allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 396.3 YPG, which ranks 30th out of 32 teams (unusual for an Andy Reid-coached team). The pick: No doubt that Denver catches KC in a bad mood after back-to-back losses plus Chiefs have had three extra days to stew about taht bitter Thursday loss at Oakland.It's also true taht Trevor Siemian's confidence could be somewhat shaken and Denver's only other option at QB is Brock Osweiler (OUCH!). However, Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.and this is a lot points for this bitter rivalry, especially considering Denver is allowing about 140 YPG less than KC on the season! Take those points and make Denver a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 95 h 11 m | Show |
The set: One of the NFL's best rivalries is set for Week 8 at FedEx Field on Sunday, with an NFC East matchup between the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 3-3 Washington Redskins. The Cowboys are coming off a 40-10 win at San Francisco, rebounding after losing back-to-back games versus the Rams and Packers. Meanwhile, the Redskins are off a 34-24 MNF loss in Philly against the Eagles, which left both Dallas and Washington 2 1/2 games back of the first-place 6-1 Eagles in the NFC East. Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott has been fighting a six-game suspension in court and that drama will last at least one more week with another hearing scheduled for Monday. He's coming off his best game of the season last week at San Francisco, when he rushed for 147 yards and two TDs, while also adding a 72-yard receiving score. Elliott has 540 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four TDs. QB Dak Prescott is having another excellent season, passing for 234 yards and three TDs last Sunday. He's now thrown for 1,426 yards with 14 TDs and only four INTs (98.2 QB rating). He's run for 152 yards (7.6 YPC) with four TDs, as part of a Dallas ground game averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd). Washington: Kirk Cousins played well Monday night (303 yards with three TDs) but he couldn't match Philly's Wentz (4 TDs). He enters this game completing 68.3 percent with 12 TDs and three INTs for a 107.2 QB rating. Washington's running game isn't much and the Redskins rank 11th in scoring 23.5 PPG. The defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 24.5 PPG (26th). The pick: Washington saw three offensive linemen injured against the Eagles. Left tackle Trent Williams aggravated his right knee, right tackle Morgan Moses sprained both ankles and right guard Brandon Scherff suffered a knee sprain. Center Spencer Long (knee) is also hurting. With 13 players limited or worse, the Redskins didn't even practice Wednesday, opting instead for a walk-through. That can't be good news, playing on a short week. Keeping Elliott on the field for this game is huge for Dallas, as he and Prescott continue to give the Cowboys quite a 1-2 punch. Note that Prescott's 14 TD passes through six games has only been bettered in franchise history by Don Meredith (1966) and Tony Romo (2009), who each had 15 TD passes. The Dallas D is still a little suspect but the offense, averaging 33.7 PPG the last three games, 'covers' the day. Make Dallas an 8* play. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 Oakland Raiders will travel to Buffalo's NewEra Field on Sunday afternoon to take on the 4-2 Bills. The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, the Raiders lost four in a row, before snapping their slide with a last-second victory in a Week 7 Thursday game, 31-30 at home against the hated-Chiefs. Meanwhile, new Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team at 4-2, one of NFL 2017's true surprises. The Bills edged the Bucs 30-27 last Sunday, improving to 3-0 SU at home and on the season, have gone 4-1-1 ATS in all games. Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game but he had a mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams in Week 6 (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating). However, he returned to form against the Chiefs, passing for 417 yards and three TDs. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper had just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season going into that game with KC, when he broke out with 11 catches for 210 yards and two TDs. TE Jared Cook joined the 100-yard club himself, with six catches for 107 yards. However, Oakland's running game continues to be bust (Lynch is no 'beast,' rather just a pain in the ass), as Oakland will enter this game averaging 92.9 YPG on the ground (24th). The Oakland D ranks 26th in yards allowed (360.6 per) and 18th in scoring at 22.3 PPG. Buffalo: QB Tyrod Taylor threw for 268 yards and a TD on 20 of 33 passing, against the Bucs but Buffalo will come into this game ranking 29th (of 32 teams) with only 181.0 YPG through the air. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year (164.4 YPG on 5.3 YPC), led by LeSean McCoy 's 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC and 13 rushing TDs). However, the Bills were averaging only 106.6 YPG on 3.4 YPC heading into last Sunday. There was good news though, as McCoy ran for 91 yards and a pair of rushing scores plus led the team with five receptions. As a team, Buffalo ran for 173 yards, which is "much more like it!" Buffalo's D has also held its own so far in 2017, allowing 16.8 PPG to rank 4th. The pick: Isn't it interesting that new Bills hed coach Sean McDermott has been coaxing a lot more out of the Buffalo “D” than Rex Ryan ("the defensive genius") did the past two years! Buffalo's revamped 2ndary has nine INTs, which in concert with a mistake-free offense (only three giveaways), leaves Buffalo with an NFL-best plus-10 TO margin. Make the Bills a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -3 v. Arizona | Top | 37-58 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 7-1 (4-1 in Pac 12) and will travel to Arizona Stadium to take on the 5-2 Arizona Wildcats (3-1 in Pac 12) this Saturday night. The Cougars rose to No. 8 in the AP poll on Oct. 8 but the following week were crushed 37-3 at Cal, when QB Luke Falk threw five INTs. Washington rebounded last Saturday and shut out Colorado 28-0. The Arizona Wildcats defeated those very same Cal Bears this past Saturday, 45-44 in double OT. However, the Wildcats are still searching for a marquee win, as Arizona's lone game against a ranked opponent was a 30-24 home loss to then-No. 23 Utah, back on Sep. 23. Arizona leads the all-time series 26-16 but Washington State has won the last two meetings, including a 69-7 rout in Pullman last season. Washington State: The Cougars are currently No. 15 in the AP poll and tied with Stanford at 4-1 (Stanford plays Thursday night) in the Pac 12 North (Washington lurks at 3-1). QB Luke Falk is the NCAA's active career leader in passing yards with 13,376, TD passes with 111 and yards per game at 343. He needs 225 yards passing to break former Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion's Pac-12 passing record of 13,600 yards and six TDs to break former USC quarterback Matt Barkley's Pac-12 passing TD record of 116. Who knows where his five-INT game vs. Cal came from, as in Washington State's seven wins, Falk has 22 TDs and just two INTs (in 296 pass attempts)! Mike Leach's teams have always been known fro their offense (especially through the air) but the reason the 2017 Cougars have a chance to make some real 'noise' is because the team enters this contest allowing just 18.5 PPG (21st) on 274.5 YPG (7th). In Leach's previous five years in Pullman, the Cougars have allowed anywhere from a low of 26.4 PPG (2016) to a high of 38.6 PPG (2014). Arizona: The Wildcats are averaging 43.1 PPG (5th) on 514.7 YPG (7th), with QB Khalil Tate sparking a ground game which has averaged 343.4 YPG (4th) on 7.0 YPC. Tate took over as the starting QB after Arizona opened 2-2 and has led the Wildcats to three straight wins, in which they've averaged 45.7 PPG. Tate has 694 rushing yards in the winning streak (231.4 per game) and has scored seven rushing TDs (he's completed 75.6% in the steak with four TDs and one INT). Arizona's defense will have its hands full with Falk, as the Wildcats are allowing 425.4 YPG (98th), including 257.6 YPG through the air (99th). The pick: Arizona prevented the game winning two-point conversation attempt by the Golden Bears last Saturday but know how much tougher it will be here vs. Washington State. Tate will face his toughest test yet, up against WSU's smothering front-7, which is allowing a modest 120.6 YPG on the ground (23rd). Throw in that the Cougars are a money-making 16-8 ATS on the road since 2013 and it's an 8* play on Washington State. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions are ranked No. 2 behind Alabama and looked every bit like the nation's second-ranked team last Saturday, taking down then-No. 109 Michigan, 42-13. Saquon Barkley ran for 108 yards (just 15 carries) and two TDs plus added a juggling 42-yard TD catch for a third score. QB Trace McSorley also had a huge game, throwing for 282 yards and a TD, while rushing for 76 yards and scoring three times on the ground. All the while, the 6th-ranked Buckeyes had teh weekend off and were surelty plotting how they woulkd deal with not only Penn State's offense (averaging 40.0 PPG) but with a defense which ranks first ins coring (9.6 PPG) on 282.9 YPG (ranks 9th). Penn State: Speaking about not forgetting, Penn State won't forget last year, either. The Nittany Lions not only topped Ohio State but also won the Big Ten East and the Big Ten championship game over Wisconsin. However, when all the dust had settled, it was Ohio Stae which advanced to the four-team CFP from the Big Ten, not Penn State! The Nittany Lions' dramatic upset of Ohio State last season featured a fourth-quarter rally capped by a blocked FG returned for a TD. However, Penn State was out-gained 413-to-276 in that game, so it will have to paly much better here, to pull off a win. Penn State's offense revolves around Barkley, who leads the country in all-purpose yards and has scored a TD in 14 consecutive games. The Nittany Lions will use him in multiple ways as they did last week against Michigan, taking direct snaps, split wide, in the slot and on kickoff returns.That said, Penn St. will also need for McSorley to step up, unlike last season , when he was just 8 of 23 for 154 passing yards. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been playing "catch up" ever since losing 31-16 at home to Oklahoma Sep. 9. That said, they've been doing quite a good job indeed of catching up! Ohio State has steamrolled opponents since its early loss to Oklahoma, winning five in a row by an average of 42.0 PPG, The Buckeyes have topped 500 yards of offense in each of those five straight victories (the longest such streak in team history), and will enter this game tied for the FBS lead in scoring at 47.3 PPG. Ohio State averages 577.3 YPG, which ranks 3rd. J.T. Barrett has "been on a mission" since not playing well vs. Oklahoma, completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards (270.2 per) with 18 TD passes and not a single iNT in 137 pass attempts. He's added 232 rushing yards, along with four TDs on the ground. Lat year's star freshman RB Weber has been slowed by injuries (just 227 YR / 4 TDs) but freshman Dobbins has picked up the slack, rushing for 775 yards on 7.8 YPC (5 TDs). Ohio State can't quite match Penn State's defensive stats but the Buckeyes are allowing a modest 15.4 PPG (10th) on 305.3 YPG (16th) The pick: It's bordering on sacrilege at Ohio State to say there's a bigger game on the schedule than its annual game with hated rival Michigan but a loss here at home to Penn Sate, would likely make OSU's season-ender at Ann Arbor insignificant. Ohio State has rolled over 'cupcakes' but now has a real test. However, the Buckeyes had won 11 of the previous 14 meetings prior to last year's encounter, one which they dominated, statistically. One last thought. Ohio State is off a bye and Urban-Meyer coached teams are a perfect 20-0 SU run following a bye, last losing when he was back coaching Bowling Green. Lay the points and make Ohio St. a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron -3 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the final Saturday in October for college football and as has become a custom, the MAC will dominate weekday games in November. In fact, the only MAC teams playing on Saturday will be the Buffalo Bulls (3-5 / 1-3 in the MAC) taking on the Akron Zips (4-4 / 3-1 in the MAC). Buffalo last had a winning season in 2013 and is coming off a 2-10 season in 2016. Buffalo's 24-14 loss last Saturday at Miami-O makes it three straight defeats and leaves them 1-3 in the MAC East. Akron is coming off its first conference loss this season last Saturday, falling 48-21 at Toledo. However, the Zips are still 3-1 in the MAC East, tied with Ohio U at the top of the division. Buffalo: Drew Anderson is Buffalo's best QB (10 TDs / 1 INT) but is doubtful in this contest with a shoulder injury (he missed last Saturday's loss). With Anderson, Buffalo is a mediocre offense but without him, the Bulls are in trouble. Down to its third QB at Miami last Saturday, the Bulls gained just 271 yards and have averaged just 2.3 YPC on the ground in their three games. Buffalo's defense is allowing 25.1 PPG (61st) on 407.6 YPG (80th). Akron: The Zips were gashed for 626 yards by Toledo and on the season have allowed 443.0 YPG (108th) and 25.6 PPG (63rd). Both Thomas Woodson and Robbie Kelly played QB last time out for Akron, combining to go 23 of 40 for 291 yards with three TDs and an interception. Woodson is the starter and has 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season. However, the Zips can't afford to run for just 42 yards like they did last Saturday on 24 carries. On the season, Akron is averaging only 114.9 YPG (116th). Defensively, Akron is allowing 25.6 PPG (63rd) on 443.0 YPG (108th). The pick: Getting bowled over by Toledo is one thing but Buffalo is another story. Buffalo was 0-6 SU on the road in 2016 and is 1-3 here in 2017. Considering the visitor has lost eight of the last nine in this series, making Akron an 8* play "feels just right!" |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida State opened the 2-017 season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but right out of the box, had a date with No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta on Sep. 2, The Seminoles lost more than a game in that contest, as in the fourth quarter of Alabama's 24-7 win, FSU lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois, to a season-ending injury. FSU will visit Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Ma. with a 2-4 record on Friday, to take on 4-4 BC Eagles. Who could have ever predicted that this game, on the last Saturday of October, would see the Eagles entering with twice as many wins as the Seminoles? Florida State: True freshman James Blackman has stepped in at QB, completing 57.6 percent for 1,047 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. RBs Akers (454 on 5.2 YPC) and Patrick (434 on 5.7 YPG) both own impressive YPC averages but FSU only averages 146,4 YPG on the ground (87th), which isn't enough with a passing attack averaging only 209.5 YPG (77th). More bad news is that Patrick (knee) is now likely out for the rest of season. FSU entered this season having averaged 30-plus PPG in every season since 2008, last averaging under that figure back in 2007, at 23.3 PPG. The 2017 edition is averaging a pathetic 19.8 PPG (116th). The defense has been solid (22.5 PPG ranks 45th and 350.3 YPG ranks 33rd) but with the team's offensive woes, it hasn't much mattered. Boston College: The Eagles are now 4-4 (2-3 in the ACC), after winning three of their last four games. Last Saturday's 41-10 win at Virginia saw redshirt freshman QB Antony Brown have his best game of the season, throwing for 275 yards with three TDs. "We have scored 40 points in back-to-back games, the first time the school has ever done that in the history of Boston College," head coach Steve Addazio told reporters this week. "Either Big East or ACC and first time in the ACC since we have been in that we have had two back-to-back over five hundred yards of offense. I think that helps you and it builds confidence." The pick: OK, Boston College does enter in better form than FSU, as the Eagles are on a five-game winning ATS run and in back-to-back wins, have discovered a one-two 'punch' with freshman RB Dillon (361 rushing yard) complementing QB Brown. That said, after 41-and 45-point games (as well as running up 500-plus yards in each), the Eagles are still averaging a modest 23.0 PPG (101st) on 375.2 YPG (88th) for the season. Bottom line is this. Florida State is 7-0 SU against Boston College under Fisher and this line is more than 'doable.' Make FSU a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami's 2017 season began with the Dolphins having to postpone their Week 1 game with Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Irma. It was rescheduled for Week 11 when both the Dolphins and Bucs had a bye week. That means both Miami and Tampa Bay will play 16 consecutive weeks, not the best of circumstances. However, winning their last three games, after a 1-2 start, sure has the Dolphins in a much better mood. While Miami is streaking, the Ravens' season has gone 'south.' Baltimore opened 2-0 but enters this contest having lost four of their last five, leaving them 3-4 (already two games back of the Steelers in the AFC North).. Miami: The Dolphins enter off wins over the Titans, Falcons and Jets. In that 31-28 win over New York in Week 7, Miami Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and aided the comeback going 13 of 21 for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT (102.9 QB rating). That's much better than what Miami has seen from Cutler, who has averaged a woeful 150.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and five INTs, posting a 78.8 QB rating (approaching Flacco range!). Jay Ajayi is the leading rusher with 442 yards but the team averages only 81.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Defensively, Miami has been good, allowing 308.2 YPG (10th) and 18.7 PPG (7th). Baltimore: QB Joe Flacco missed Baltimore's entire preseason but the Ravens went 4-0. In retrospect, maybe that was a bad sign? I noted that Baltimore started the 2017 season 2-0 but Flacco sure wasn't the reason, as he passed for only 338 yards with three TDs and two INTs. Baltimore's defense allowed just 10 points those first two games and let's also note that the wins came over the Bengals and Browns (now a combined 2-11). Baltimore's defense has allowed 27.6 PPG in losing four of five and Flacco has been awful, with two TDs and six INTs. On the season, he has five TD passes and eight INTs, as Baltimore ranks 32nd in passing yards (157.4 YPG), with Flacco's QB rating of 70.0 ranking 31st among 32 starting QBs. Baltimore's running game is middle-of-the-pack and its rushing D ranks dead last, allowing 145.3 YPG. The pick: The Ravens season is surely at a 'tipping point,' as after this home game with the Dolphins, they'll play at Tennessee, have a bye week and then play at Green Bay. Lose here and any outside postseason hopes are all but dead, just halfway through the 2017 season. Matt Moore led Miami back from a 14-point deficit with a 17-point fourth quarter but John Elway, he isn't. He's a journeyman who is preparing to make his 29th career regular-season start. He's 15-13 as a starter and his career QB rating is 82.5. He'll take the field for a team unable to run the ball (see above), as the Dolphins still do not own a rushing TD. The Dolphins have been 'playing with fire' in their recent comeback wins but get 'burnt' here in Week. 8 Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It's another weekday Sun Belt Conference game Thursday night at Turner Field in Atlanta, as the 3-4 South Alabama Jaguars take on the 3-3 Georgia State Panthers. Both schools are 2-1 in SBC play but will have a tough time competing with the Appalachian State (4-0) and Arkansas State, which represent the "class" of this non-Power Conference league. The Jaguars have lost to Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Idaho and LA. Tech, while earning wins over Alabama A&M, Troy and UL Monroe. Georgia State owns victories over Charlotte, Coastal Carolina and UL Monroe, while losing to Tennessee State, Penn State and Troy. South Alabama: The Jags won for the second straight time this past Saturday, 33-23 at home over UL Monroe. QB Dallas Davis put was 20 of 33 for 317 yards with three TD passes. He only has seven TD passes on the season plus has thrown for a modest 924 yards. The offense is averaging only 24.3 PPG (94th) on 345.4 YPG (108th) with teh defense allowing 26.4 YPG (66th) on 413.3 YPG (85th). Georgia State: The Panthers entered last Saturday's home contest with Troy on a three-game winning streak (all on the road) but ground to halt in a 34-10 loss. QB Conner Manning threw for 255 yards with one TD and one interception but got no help from his running game, as Glenn Smith led the team's rushing attack (pardon the pun) with 19 yards on 11 carries. As a team, the Panthers ran for just 52 yards on 33 attempts. That's not exactly new, as Ga. State ranks 117th with 114.2 YPG on the ground for the season. Manning has thrown for 1,516 yards but has a modest seven TDs with five INTs. The offense limps into this contest averaging only 20.3 PPG (114th) on 383.0 YPG (84th). The defense allows 27.5 PPG (76th) on 406.0 YPG (79th). The pick: South Alabama can say it's been to bowl games two of the last three seasons (and that's true) but the Jags have lost both of those games, each year finishing 6-7. South Alabama last posted a winning season back in 2011, at 6-4. Georgia State has been pretty much over-matched since moving up to FBS play in 2013, going a combined 1-23 its first two seasons. The Panthers did go 6-6 in 2015 but lost their bowl game to finish 6-7. Last year, the Panthers regressed again, going 3-9. This is a home game but is that an advantage? Georgia State's three wins have all come away from home in 2017, as the Panthers are 0-2 here at home, scoring just 10 points in losing to Tennessee St (Aug. 31) and on Oct. 21 to Troy. A win here for South Alabama gets them to 4-4 and puts them in great position to win six or seven games in 2017. The Jags do have to play Arkansas State (it's at home, though) but the team's other remaining games are against ULL (3-4), Ga. Southern (0-6) and New Mexico State (3-4). Make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-25-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have opened 3-0, despite missing all-everything forward Kawhi Leonard, who remains out while dealing with right quadriceps tendinopathy. The Spurs have also made do without long-time PG Tony Parker (left quadriceps tendon surgery). San Antonio travels to South Beach Wednesday night to face the Miami Heat, who have opened 2-1. Miami center Hassan Whiteside is expected to miss his third straight game with a bone bruise on his left knee. Ironically, Whiteside went for 26 & 22 in Miami's season-opener at Orlando but the Heat lost. Without Whiteside, the team has won home games over the Pacers and Hawks. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up with Leonard out, averaging 24.3 & 9.3. He is also helping out on the defensive end and provided the highlight of Monday's 101-97 win over the Raptors with a chase-down block of Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry as the Spurs held their third consecutive opponent under 100 points to start the season. Dejounte Murray surprisingly beat out Patty Mills in training camp for the right to replace Tony Parker as the team's starting PG and he's been up to the challenge, averaging 13.3-9.7-4.7. Danny Green 14.3) and Rudy Gay (12.3) also averaging in double digits. Miami: Along with Whiteside, PG Dragic (quad bruise) and SG Waiters (ankle) are also hurting for Miami. Dragic plans to be available for Wednesday's game and if Waiters is unable to go, the Heat have plenty of other options at the shooting guard spot. Josh Richardson had a team-high 21 points in Miami's win over Atlanta and is averaging 14.3 PPG, while Wayne Ellington came off the bench and buried 6-of-8 from three-point range against the Hawks, after going 2-of-10 from beyond the arc in the first two games. The pick: Both teams are dealing with injury issues but the absence of Whiteside is a bigger concern in this game. Jordan Mickey started the last two games in place of Whiteside and averaged five points and six rebounds in 14.5 minutes. That worked vs. the Pacers and Hawks but will not vs. the Spurs, who are holding opponents to just 91.0 PPG, despite playing without Leonard (arguably, the league's best defensive player). San Antonio enters this contest having won nine straight in the series, going back to Game 3 of the 2014 NBA Finals. Make the Spurs an 8* play. |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic -4 | Top | 121-125 | Push | 0 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brooklyn Nets are 2-1 to open the new season, despite allowing 121.7 PPG, which ranks 29th, ahead of only the Suns. The Nets are pushing the pace, driving and crashing the lane plus firing away from three-point range. The result has been a scoring average of 124.7 PPG, which is tops in the NBA. The Nets placed six players in double digits in Friday's 126-121 home win over the Magic and tonight will visit Amway Arena to take on the Magic, who have also opened a surprising 2-1. Brooklyn: The Nets were just 20-62 last year and lost PG Jeremy Lin (for the season) in the team's opener of this new season. D'Angelo Russell has taken on the role of playmaker with Lin sidelined and he handed out a season-high 10 assists in Sunday's 116-104 win to boost his averages to 21 .0 PPG and 7.0 APG. Allen Crabbe had a team-high 20 points on 7-of-12 shooting on Sunday. However, Crabbe is still on a minute restriction due to a preseason ankle injury. Brooklyn is second in the NBA going into Monday's action in free-throw attempts (33.7) while shooting 37.6 percent from three-point range but one thing the Nets could do better is cutting down on fouls. Opponents are averaging 27.7 foul shots per game against the Nets after the Hawks took 36 free throws Sunday. Orlando: The Magic are coming off one of the most impressive victories of this young season, a 114-93 triumph at Cleveland on Saturday. Center Nikola Vucevic scored a career-high 41 points on 17-of-22 shooting in the loss at Brooklyn on Friday, then followed by scoring 23 points on 11-of-16 from the floor at Cleveland. Vucevic is averaging 27.7 points and 10.7 rebounds on 68 percent shooting from the floor (34 of 50), including 50 percent from three-point range (7 of 14). His efforts on the interior opened up space on the perimeter and the Magic were able to knock down 17 three-pointers at Cleveland. "We’re starting to play offensively consistently the right way in terms of not settling and understanding that we want to attack early and the ball is really hopping," coach Frank Vogel told reporters. "We’re scoring the ball well and shooting the ball well as a result of the ball movement and the quality of our shots." The pick: At 2-1, the Nets are above .500 for the first time since they were 4-3 on Nov. 12, 2014 and the Nets are now in a position to start 3-1 for the first time since the 2007-08 season. Is that asking too much? As for the Magic, who were just 29-53 last year, they are seeking their first 3-1 start since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. "Again, it's too early to make any big judgments about this (team), but it's an early positive sign for us," Orlando coach Frank Vogel said. "With how we're playing offensively and moving the basketball, we're facilitating everything and everybody feels good about our chemistry. Everybody is playing with the basketball the right way, thinking extra pass and playing for each other. That's how chemistry is established." The home team has won each of the last five meetings in the series and revenge (from Friday) works here for the Magic. Make Orlando an 8* play. |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Suns -1.5 | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: It's one thing to open 0-3 and another to have lost all three games by an average margin of 30.7 PPG (two losses by 40-plus points) while allowing league-worsts of 128.7 PPG on 51.5 percent shooting (including 50.0 percent on threes). Head coach Earl Watson began his second full year on the job this season after being promoted from assistant coach to interim coach when Jeff Hornacek was fired on Feb. 1, 2016. Watson signed a three-year contract as head coach on April 19, 2016 but the team announced Sunday night that associate head coach Jay Triano is taking over for Watson as interim head coach. The Suns went 33-85 on his watch. Triano's first game will be against the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, who visit Phoenix after opening 1-2. Sacramento: The Kings are finishing up a three-game, four-day road trip that has seen them win 93-88 at Dallas but then lose 96-79 at Denver on Saturday. Zach Randolph was the lone Sacramento starter to score in double figures and he finished with only 11 points as the team's starting-five combined to shoot 10-for-38 from the floor. Rookie De'Aaron Fox made a splash off the bench with 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting to go along with five rebounds in a team-high 29 minutes. Fox currently leads the etam in scoring (13.7 PPG) and assists (5.3 per), while adding 5.0 RPG. Forward Skal Labissiere chipped in 13 points but there were very few other contributions for a team the Suns may just be able to beat. Phoenix: Guard Eric Bledsoe followed up a 28-point performance in a two-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with a four-point, four-turnover effort against the Clippers on Sunday. Bledsoe summed up his frustration in a tweet before Sunday's announcement of the coaching change surfaced. "I Dont wanna be here," it read. The Suns are the second-youngest team in the league in terms of average age, with four players still 20 and another 19. Watson tinkered with the lineup this season, putting power forward Marquese Chriss on the bench and starting two small forwards, TJ Warren and rookie Josh Jackson. Among many other things, that hasn't worked. Triano spent parts of four seasons (2008-11) as head coach of the Toronto Raptors. He is in his second season with the Suns after spending four years as an assistant with the Portland Trail Blazers, one when Watson was a player there. The pick: It would be impossible for the Suns to play any worse but as noted, the Kings may just be exactly "what the doctor ordered." The NBA's worst defensive team (Phoenix) will welcome a team averaging just 90.7 PPG (second-lowest scoring average in the NBA) and playing its third road game in four nights. Take the points and make the Suns a 10* play. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Eagles the NFC's best team? They just may be and a win tonight over NFC East rival Washington would only add more 'fuel' to that claim. Philadelphia is 5-1, losing only at KC, while owning wins over the Redskins, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. The Eagles beat the Redskins back in Week 1, 30-17 at Washington and now get a return match with them here at Lincoln Financial Field on “Monday Night Football.” Washington comes in 3-2 and a victory would leave the Redskins just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East but a loss would mean both Washington and Dallas would be 3-3, while Philadelphia would own a commanding 6-1 record, 2 1/2 games clear of its division rivals. Washington: QB Kirk Cousins is having another fine season completing 66.5% for 1,334 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating). However, his worst game of the 2017 season came in Washington's Week 1 home loss to the Eagles, when Cousins completed only 57.5% with one TD and one INT, earning a QB rating of only 72.9. The running game does not have a player with more than 175 yards on the season but still ranks 10th, averaging 122.8 YPG on the ground. RB Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Cousins does come in off a strong three-game stretch and now leads the NFC with that 106.4 QB rating. WRs Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continue to struggle but the TE tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Defensively, the Eagles rank 12th in total yards (316.0 per) but not as high in points allowed (22.6 PPG ranks 19th). Philadelphia: Wentz is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, with 13 TDs and just three INTs (99.6 QB rating). RB LeGarrette Blount (390 yards on 5.6 YPC) is starting to make his presence felt while a a very good OL helps the running game check in at 132.5 YPG (4th-best in the NFL). TE Ertz has 34 catches and WR Agholor has 20, with both owning four TD grabs apiece. Philly's rush D will surely test Washington's running game, as the Eagles are allowing an NFL-low 65.7 YPG on the ground. The pick: Recent series history favors Washington, as Jay Gruden had beaten Philly five in a row prior to losing in Week 1 (Washington self-destructed with four giveaways). Also, the Redskins come in on an 8-3 ATS run as a road dog and that includes that fluke non-cover at KC in Week 4's MNF game! However, I believe the Eagles are "for real." They have won four straight (covered the last three) since losing at KC, while averaging 28.8 PPG, as Philadelphia has now scored at least 20 points in 10 straight games, the league's longest active streak. Wentz is proving to be a cool, calm and collected leader. Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a Super Bowl rematch at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night (NBC), as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots. The Falcons led 21-3 at the half of last year's Super Bowl and 28-3 in the third quarter of last season's game. However, the Patriots engineered the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL's 'ultimate game,' leaving the Falcons and their fans stunned with a 34-28 OT final which produced the fifth championship of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era (or should that read, the Brady/Belichick era?). The 2017 versions of the teams meet Sunday night and each team has reason to "not be confident!' Atlanta opened 3-0 but back-to-back losses to the Bills and Dolphins leaves them just 3-2 (blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home to Miami last Sunday). The Pats are 4-2 but easily could have lost at home to Houston and last Sunday, were the beneficiaries of a highly-controversial fumble/touchback call in their 24-17 win at the Jets. Atlanta: Matt Ryan was deservedly the MVP of the 2016 season, throwing for 4,944 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs for a 117.1 QB rating. However, after five games, he's got a 6-6 ratio and a QB rating of just 87.3. The RB tandem of Freeman (353 YR on 4.5 YPC with 5 TDs plus 11 catches) and Coleman (213 YR on 5.6 YPC with 1 TD plus 14 catches) is still potent but the Falcons' offense has looked 'off!' Atlanta led the NFL in scoring (33.8 PPG) in 2016, while finishing second in total yards (415.8 YPG). Here in 2017, those numbers are 24.2 PPG (12th) on 378.4 YPG (5th). The defense has allowed about 60 YPG more than in 2016 and 25,4 PPG, after allowing 21.8 PPG last season. New England. What to make of the Pats in 2017? Brady is still awesome, with 13 TDs and just two INTs (106.9 QB rating), leading an offense averaging 28.7 PPG (5th-best). The Pats lead the nFL in passing (309.8 YPG), which is the reason the team also owns the most YPG (412.0 per), in the entire NFL. However, no team has allowed more overall yards (440.7 per) or passing yards (324,8 per) than New England. All six opposing QBs have thrown for 300-plus yards against New England (never happened before), as the Pats' pass D has allowed 14 TDs and has just five INTs (104.4 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). The pick: No way Atlanta can be brimming with confidence after it incredibly blew a 17-0 halftime lead in its 20-17 home upset loss to previously-struggling Miami last Sunday. Add to that, the fact that the Pats lost their most recent home game (33-30 in Week in Week 4 to that Panthers) and that New England hasn’t dropped consecutive home games since 2008. The poinstspread is surely not much of an impost but this New England team is just "not right" here in 2017. The Falcons own a much-better balanced offense and neither team's defense seems capable of stopping the opposing team's offense. I WANT the points. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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10-22-17 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: How many realize that behind the San Antonio Spurs, the second-longest streak of consecutive NBA playoff appearances belongs to the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, the Hawks have been to 10 staright postseason but that run will be tested in 2017-18. Atlanta got no favors from teh schedule-makers, as the Hawks must begin the seaon with five straight games on the road. The Hawks looked impressive in a 117-111 win at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday but shot 37.9 percent in a 109-91 loss at Charlotte on Friday, squandering a 20-point first-half lead. The Hawks will be in Brooklyn tonight, to take on the 1-1 Nets. Brooklyn opened with a 140-131 loss at Indiana on Wednesday and then, playing its their first game since learning that PG Jeremy Lin will miss the rest of the regular season with a ruptured patella tendon on Friday, beat the Orlando Magic 126-121 in the team's home opener. |
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10-22-17 | Panthers -3 v. Bears | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 13 m | Show |
Carolina: Newton was Carolina's lone offensive producer against the Eagles, as ran for 71 yards (on 11 attempts), while the rest of the team had just nine rushing yards on 14 carries. That won't work! Newton was forced to throw 52 times, completing 28 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. That was quite a drop off from him completing 77.4 percent for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT in back-to-back road wins at New England and Detroit. The good news so far is that Carolina's D ranks 4th in total yards (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG (down from 25.1 PPG in 2016). Chicago: Mitch Trubisky will make his third career start in this one. He earned his first victory last week but has passed for only 241 yards in his two starts, with two TDs and an interception (owns a 73.3 QB rating). He has averaged only 20.5 passes per game, as the Bears continue to rely heavily on the ground game, which is No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL at 136.0 YPG. RB Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards (167 yards in Week 6) and four TDs through his his first six games. The Bears are averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and that won't get the job done with the defense allowing 24.7 PPG (25th). The pick: The Bears come into this contest 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win (beat the Ravens in Week 6), while the Panthers are 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017 (one of five NFL teams that are unbeaten away from home in 2017). Cam Newton vs. Mitch Trubisky seems like a total mismatch plus Chicago's rushing attack will get a severe test against Carolina's rush D, which comes in allowing only 83.3 YPG to rank 5th-best in the NFL. Carolina has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Make the Panthers a 10* play. |
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10-22-17 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Long-time AFC East rivals the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The 3-3 Jets are coming off a controversial 24-17 home loss to the Pats in Week 6, while the Dolphins improved to 3-2 with their best effort of the season, a 20-17 comeback win on the road over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. The Jets squandered a 14-0 lead but were hurt when an apparent TD was ruled a fumble and a touchback on a still-controversial call, eventually losing 24-17. The Dolphins fell behind the Falcons 17-0 at halftime last Sunday but somehow came back to win 2017. NY Jets: "I think the whole stadium felt (the call) was wrong," Jets safety Jamal Adams told the media in New York. However, the Jets know they have to move on. Journeyman QB Josh McCown completed 75.0% of his throws in the Jets' three-game winning streak and then passed for 354 yards in the loss to the Pats. McCown is going to need more help from New York's "no-name" RBs, as New York ranks a modest 18th in averaging 105.2 YPG on the ground. Overall, the Jets average just 318.7 YPG (21st) and ranks 26th in scoring at 18.2 PPG. The Jets' D is allowing 358.0 YPG (24th) but only 21.7 PPG, which ranks 12th Miami: The Dolphins took the field for the second half of last week's game in Atlanta, down 17-0. It continued a sad trend for Miami, as the team's offense had scored just one non-garbage-time TD over the past 15 quarters. However, Miami scored two TDs in the third quarter, before Cody Parkey added two FGs in the fourth quarter to get Miami the "W." Miami’s offense had been dismal until its third-quarter revival against the Falcons, although it was good news that RB Jay Ajayi broke out of a slump with 130 rushing yards last week. QB Jay Cutler's "un-retirement" has not gone well, as he has just five TD passes and four INTs with Miami ranking 32nd in passing offense with 155.4 YPG (Cutler's QB rating is a poor 75.2). Defensively, the Dolphins have been very good, allowing just 16.8 PPG to rank 3rd. The pick: It's just Week 7 but this is the second meeting of 2017 for these division rivals. The teams met at MetLife Stadium in Week 3, when the Dolphins were a six-point road favorite and the Jets won handily, 20-6. Both teams have greatly surpassed preseason expectations, with both defenses showing well. However, despite Miami's remarkable second-half comeback last week, they come into this game ranked last in scoring (12.2 PPG), last in total offense (242.8 YPG), last in passing yards (155.4 YPG) and 27th in rushing offense (87.4 YPG). How does one lay points with this team? In fact, Miami is a money-burning 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when favored, going back to the latter part of 2014. Make the Jets an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The USC/Notre Dame rivalry is one of CFB's classics. USC comes in 6-1, after escaping with a 28-27 win last Saturday over Utah. The Trojans trailed 21-7 at the half and walked away with the win only when Utah failed on a late two-point conversion try. Notre Dame upped its record to 5-1 after winning at North Carolina 33-10 on Oct. 7th, without starting QB Brandon Winbush. The Fighting Irish led 16-7 at the half and kept the pressure on with a 487-265 yardage advantage in the 23-point win, despite QB Ian Book throwing for only 146 yards with one TD and two INTs. USC: The Trojans rolled up 532 total yards against Utah but still barely eked out a win. Sam Darnold was a Heisman-favorite entering thi season but after throwing 31 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, he's already thrown nine INTs in 2017, along with 15 TDs. RB Ronald Jones II (640 YR / 6.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is a quality back and leads a running game averaging 180.6 YPG (54th). USC's defense is allowing 385.4 YPG (67th) and 23.7 PPG (52nd). Notre Dame: The Irish really need a healhty Winbush here (Irish had a bye last weekend), as Book is not ready for primetime. That said, Notre Dame's rushing game is first-class, led by Josh Adams, who has run for 776 yards (9.0 YPC) and five TDs. The Irish are averaging 308.0 YPG on the ground, which ranks 5th. The defense could be up to the task of slowing USC's Jones, as it has allowed just one rushing TD and a modest 16.8 PPG on the season (15th). Notre Dame has already exceeded its 2016 win total, when the Irish finished 4-8, after opening the season ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll. The pick: The rivalry between No. 11 USC and No. 13 Notre Dame stands as one of the most hallowed in college football, with a lineage that transcends individual season records."I think it's the best inter-sectional rivalry in college sports," USC head coach Clay Helton said. With a combined 22 national championships and 14 Heisman Trophy winners between the programs, the USC-Notre Dame rivalry has the hardware to back up Helton's claim. Both teams enter Saturday's matchup at Notre Dame Stadium ranked in the top-25 for the first time since 2009, and the 89th installment of the series will likely see the winner move into the top-10, as well as keep its CFP hopes alive. Notre Dame failed at home in its biggest test so far in 2017 (a 20-19 loos to Georgia) and I wouldn't want to be laying any points at all here, vs. the Trojans. USC was expected to be the class of the Pac-12 at the beginning of the season and could just re-establish themselves as the conference's best again, with a non-conference win at South Bend. Make USC a 10* play. |
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10-21-17 | Oregon +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oregon Ducks dropped to 4-3 (1-3 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Stanford Cardinal 49-7, this past Saturday. The Ducks will visit the Rose Bowl this Saturday to face the UCLA Bruins, who dropped to 3-3 (1-2 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Arizona Wildcats 47-30, last weekend. Oregon won 10-plus games every season from 2008 through 2014 but after a 9-4 season in 2016, fell to 4-8 last year. UCLA was also 4-8 in 2016, after Jim Mora had led the Bruins to four straight bowl games and a 37-16 overall record in his first four seasons in LA. Oregon: The Ducks' offense has really struggled since losing QB Justin Herbert to a collarbone injury Sep. 30 against Cal. Herbert was completing 68.3 percent of his passes with nine TDs and just two INTs but in the two games he's missed since, Oregon QBs have thrown for just 178 yards with one TD and four INTs, with the Ducks scoring 10 and seven points, respectively, in back-to-back losses. The running game is excellent though, averaging 244.6 YPG (18th), led by Freeman (797 YR with 10 TDs) and Benoit (361 YR with 8 TDs). Oregon's defense has allowed 30.3 PPG (89th) but in term of yards allowed, the Ducks are better than that, ranking 43rd in allowing 362.0 YPG. UCLA: The Bruins began the year un-ranked but after opening 2-0, snuck into the AP poll at No. 25. However, UCLA lost back-to-back games from there at Memphis (allowed 48 poinst) and at Stanford (allowed 58 points). After beating Colorado 27-23 at home, UCLA's defense again got 'spanked,' allowing 47 points in a loss at Arizona. QB Josh Rosen is a "big-time" talent and UCLA ranks second in the nation averaging 399.7 YPG through the air. Rosen is completing 64.2% with 17 TDs and eight INTs, despite a non-existent running game which averaged 127.5 YPG (104th). However, with UCLA's defense, Rosen finds himself typically playing "catch up." The Bruins are allowing 40.5 PPG (125th) on 523.0 YPG (127th). The pick: Led by Freeman (plus Benoit's no slouch), the Oregon running game should 'run wild' against a UCLA rush D allowing 313.0 YPG (129th), as well as 6.6 YPC! This is hardly a matchup that bodes well for UCLA being able to beat Oregon for the first time since 2007. UCLA's next win will be the 600th in program history but do not expect that win to come here, as Oregon wins its seventh in a row over the Bruins. Make the Ducks an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -24 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) travel to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten), who are currently ranked No. 5. Terps shocked Texas in their season-opener, winning 51-41 as an 18-point road dog but come in having lost three of their last four. Wisconsin has taken control of the Big Ten's West Division at 3-0, with no other team checking in any better than 2-2. Maryland: The Terps have fallen off quite dramatically since their opening week win over Texas and have been outscored 99-35 in their last two games. QB Max Bortenschlager is completing just 50.9 percent of his passes (only 106 attempts) for 561 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Maryland ranks just 117th in yards passing, averaging just 161.0 YPG. Maryland's ground game is averaging 178.1 YPG (57th), led by and Ty Johnson (488 YR / 7.2 YPC). Maryland averages 31.7 PPG but that doesn't help much with the defense allowing 36.5 PPG (115th). Wisconsin: The Badgers look to move to 7-0 and keep themselves in the thick of the college football playoff conversation. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,210 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. Wisconsin averages 36.3 PPG (27th) and a big reason is a ground game averaging 264.5 YPG (13th). Freshman Jonathan Taylor is Wisconsin's "next great RB," rushing for 986 yards on 7.8 YPC with 10 TDs. He had with 219 yards last week (his third 200-plus game of 2017) and will surely match the NCAA record for fewest games needed to reach 1,000 yards (seven). Nothing new on the defensive side of the ball for Wisconsin here in 2017, as the Badgers are allowing only 13.3 YPG (5th) on 265.0 YPG (6th). The pick: Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS at home in 2017 but the Badgers have the rush D (78.8 YPG ranks 4th) to contain Maryland's running game, which will put way too much pressure on QB Bortenschlage, who really isn't ready for primetime. The Terps have allowed 99 combined points in back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Northwestern and are very likely to allow 40-plus points here.The Badgers are outscoring opponents 119-24 in the second half and pull away here for the cover. Make Wisconsin an 8* play. |
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10-20-17 | Air Force -5.5 v. Nevada | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 105 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: It's MWC play on Friday night at MacKay Stadium when the Nevada Wolf Pack host the Air Force Falcons. The Falcons opened with a 67-0 win over VMI but then lost four in a row. In the last two losses of the team's skid, Air Force allowed 56 points at New Mexico and then 48 at home to Navy. However, after falling behind UNLV by 27 points, Air force rallied for a 34-30 win. Nevada opened 2017 with five straight losses, before winning 35-21 at home over at Hawaii but lost last Saturday 44-42 at Colorado State. Air Force: The Falcons rallied last Saturday, despite six fumbles (four lost), as QB Arion Worthman rushed for five TDs. He's completing just 49.2% for YPG but has eight TDs and just one INT. He's also the team's leading rusher (550 YR and 10 TDs), as the Falcons rank 6th in the nation averaging 304.0 YPG on the ground. Air Force is allowing 31.8 PPG (101st). Nevada: The Wolf Pack come off of a near upset of MWC favorite Colorado State in a 44-42 loss (as 25-point underdog) but that leaves the team just 1-6 (1-2 in MWC play). QB Gangi is completing a modest 58.8 percent but has 14 TD passes (eight the last two games) and just six INTs. RB Moore (442 YR / 5.7 YPC) lead a the rushing attack taht averages only 128.6 YPG (101st) and Nevada averages a modest 25.3 PPG (91st). The defense allows 35.6 PPG (112th). The pick: CBSC televises this game but really, who cares? Air Force is off a 10-3 season and is just 2-4 heading into this game. The Falcons have been to nine bowls in the last 10 seasons and need a win here to have any chance of extending that run. Make Air Force a 10* play. |
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10-20-17 | Blazers -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Indianapolis tonight and will try to play "Can you Top This" in their meeting with the Pacers. The answer is likely no, as the Blazers are coming off a 124-76 win at the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. It was the second-largest margin of victory in franchise history and also, the largest margin of victory in any opener in NBA history! The Pacers opened their season as well on Wednesday and while their margin of victory was a more modest nine points, Indiana scored 140 points at home against the Brooklyn Nets, placing eight scorers in double figures! Portland: The Blazers cruised to their win over the Suns despite playing without their second-best scorer (player?). Portland will welcome C.J. McCollum back from suspension when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Friday. Damian Lillard knocked down 4-of-6 from beyond the arc en route to a team-high 27 points, while reserve guard Pat Connaughton stepped up with a career-high 24 points (made it 4-of-7 three-point attempts). Portland made 14-of-24 from three-point range but was already looking ahead after the game. Probably don't read too much into (the win) because it's a long season," Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "Obviously we're pleased with it, but Indiana is a new day. You can't rest on it. It's a great way to start the season, particularly the manner in which we did it, but the next game is the next game." T Indiana: The Pacers installed a faster-paced offense which will move ball more after trading away ball-stopping star Paul George. The results were positive on opening night, as three players scored 20 or more points and the team totaled 29 assists while shooting 52 percent from the floor. PG Darren Collison, one of three new starters, handed out 11 of those assists and scored 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Former Indiana Hoosier star Victor Oladipo led the way with 22 points and returning center Myles Turner added a double-double (21 & 11). "It was a great first night and hopefully Pacers fans get a chance to see what we're capable of and what type of basketball team we are," Oladipo told reporters. "Obviously, it wasn't perfect and there are some things we want to get better and improve at; but it's always great to get a win in the NBA." The pick: Both Portland and Indiana 'beat up' on teams which will both be looking to gain the most ping pong balls possible in the upcoming draft (Suns and Nets, respectively), so neither has gotten too carried away with their big opening night performances. Bottom line here is that McCollum will be back in the starting lineup for this game and last season, he and Lillard combined for 57 PPG and shot 49% against Indiana. Meanwhile, the two Indiana players who led the way for the Pacers against Portland last year, Paul George and Jeff Teague, have both left for 'greener pastures' (OKC and Minny, respectively). Make Portland an 8* play. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -118 | 80 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-1 (2-1 in the AAC) Memphis Tigers handed Navy its first loss of the season last Saturday. edging the Midshipmen 30-27. The victory allowed the Tigers to move into the latest AP poll at No. 25, for the first time since 2015. Memphis' lone loss in 2017 has come 40-13 at UCF but I should note that UCF is one of just eight unbeaten FBS teams and is currently ranked 20th in the AP poll. It's an AAC game Thursday night game when the Tigers visit TDECU Stadium and Houston on ESPN. The Cougars will be looking to atone for 45-17 upset loss at struggling Tulsa (2-5). Houston welcomes Memphis with 4-2 overall record (2-1 in the AAC). Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing just 59.3 percent of his passes but has thrown for for 1,814 yards, 19 TDs and just five INTs. The Memphis ground game is averaging 180.2 YPG (55th), led by Henderson (542 yards / 8.1 YPC) and Taylor (307 YR / 5.4 YPC). WR Anthony Miller has 45 catches and nine TDs, although nine different players have at least one TD catch. Memphis is averaging 40.3 PPG (12th) but allowing 33.8 PPG (109th) on 477.5 YPG (116th). Houston: This is Major Applewhite's first season at Houston, taking over for Tom Herman (now at Texas). Applewhite opened the season with Kyle Allen as his starting QB but after a 27-24 at home to Texas Tech, he gave the starting job to Kyle Postma. The Cougars won the first two games Postma started but then came last Saturday's 'ugly' 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Allen has attempted 104 passes (76.9%) for 751 yards with four TDs and four INTs, while Postma has 122 pass attempts (65.6%) for 805 yards with four TDs and five INTs. Houston's ground game is averaging 161.8 YPG (69th), led by Catalon (431 YR / 4.8 YPC) and Birden (227 YR / 5.8 YPC). Houston is averaging just 25.5 PPG (86th), down from 40.4 and 35.8 PPG the last two seasons. However, the defense has been solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (39th), which is in keeping with the team averaging between 20.8 and 23.5 PPG the previous four seasons. The pick: Memphis has won 11 straight regular-season non-Saturday games, including six on the road but the Cougars have won 11 straight conference home games, as well as six of the past seven against Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a huge win over Navy plus beat Houston last season 48-44, snapping a six-game losing streak in the series that dated to 2006. Cougars get their revenge. Make Houston a 10* play. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Riddle me this. If I told you that the Warriors would shoot 53.8 percent from the floor (including 16 of 30 on threes), while making 19 of 21 FTs, would anyone have though that they'd lose their season-opener at home to the Rockets? Wait, before you answer, let me add that Chris Paul would go 2 of 9 in his Houston debut (scoring four points) and that Harden would make just 10 of 23 from the floor. Now, would anyone have taken Houston on the moneyline? OK, you all are likely well aware that the Warriors blew a 17-point lead last night and by out-scoring Golden State 34-20 in the 4th quarter, Houston upset the defending champs 122-121, when KD's apparent game-winner was disallowed, as the ball left his hand just AFTER the buzzer went off. The Rockets hope not to be still celebrating when they head to Sacramento tonight, to take on the Kings. The Kings were 32-50 last season, while missing the playoffs for the 11th straight season. Houston. The Rockets featured a well-balanced attack last night, as six players scored in double digits, including two reserves with 20 or more points. Backup guard Eric Gordon had 24 points and backup forward P.J. Tucker, signed for his defensive toughness, added 20. "We got some dogs on this team, man," Houston star guard James Harden said during a post-game television interview. "We're versatile, probably the most versatile team since I've been in Houston. We've got a chance." Chris Paul did record 11 assists in his Houston debut but sat out the final 4:47 as he is battling knee soreness. Sacramento: The Kings moved talented but problematic center DeMarcus Cousins at last yea's All Star break and I'm not sure many believe this year's team is ready to break the franchise's current playoff drought. Zach Randolph was brought in and he played under current Kings coach Dave Joerger for three seasons in Memphis. 40-year-old swingman Vince Carter, who also played in Memphis, is expected, along with Randolph, to provide some much-needed leadership to a club that too often lacked it during the Cousins' era. Veteran PG George Hill also was added but he may not be at full strength for the opener after recently suffering a groin injury. As for Randolph, he's questionable after oral surgery. First-round pick PG De'Aaron Fox will get increased time if Hill is hindered, while shooting guard Buddy Hield aims to follow up his solid showing of averaging 15.1 PPG in 25 his games after being the main acquisition in the deal that sent Cousins to New Orleans. The pick: There is a "wide divide' between these two teams but with Houston coming off what had to be a very satisfying win over the Warriors last night in Oakland, the home dog is the way to go. Make Sacramento an 8* play. |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Push | 0 | 61 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA schedule-makers surely have a sense of humor. Kyrie Irving played six seasons with Cleveland with the four-time All-Star guard helping Cleveland reach three NBA Finals, including winning the 2016 title. However, he reportedly tired of playing with LBJ and "requested" (basically forced) a trade this past off-season. Irving ended up in Boston for a package that included PG Isaiah Thomas and the highly under-appreciated Jae Crowder. Boston actually earned the No. 1 seed in the East last season over Cleveland (53 wins to 51) but the Celtics were no match for the Cavs in the conference finals, losing 4-1. Cleveland revamped its roster over the summer as well, adding veteran guards Dwyane Wade (James' BFF), Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon in addition to newcomers Thomas (out due to hip surgery) and Crowder. LBJ has been bothered by a sprained left ankle and his availability may not be determined until close to tip-off in the season opener, as Kyrie makes his much-anticipated "return to Cleveland" as a member of the Celtics. Boston: Irving wasn't the only big off-season acquisition by the Celtics, as they lured All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward away from the Utah Jazz to reunite with Brad Stevens, his former college coach at Butler. All it took was a four-year, $128 million deal. The move to Boston allows Hayward to build off a career-best 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Al Horford, second-year swingman Jaylen Brown and rookie forward Jayson Tatum are the other likely starters with Hayward and Irving. Cleveland: LBJ missed four of Cleveland's five preseason games but he did participate in Monday's practice. "You know I never hide stuff from you guys, I really don't know," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "I mean, just depends on how he feels after (Monday), but I really don't know." Thomas is not expected to make his Cleveland debut until around the All-Star break, so veterans like Rose, Wade and J.R. Smith will be counted on to help James and Kevin Love (who now is expected to start at center, with Thompson coming off the bench) on the scoring side. The pick: There is plenty of drama brewing for tonight, as the Cavs are planning a video tribute to Irving, who made the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals to hand the organization its first championship. That said, expect plenty of boos directed Irving's way. As for LBJ, he has never missed a season opener in his first 14 years in the league and of course wants to pay here but he has to realize this is just one game and all the Cavs care about is getting back to the Finals, to get another shot at the Warriors. Especially, considering most believe that this will be LBJ's last season in Cleveland. Something tells me that the Celtics will be better-prepared to win this game and note that if LBJ doesn't play, the numbers don't bode well for the Cavs. Cleveland is 4-23 over the past three seasons when James doesn't play, including losses in the last 11. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Preseason expectations were running high in Tennessee, after the Titans went 9-7 in 2016, losing the AFC South to the Texans on a tie-breaker. The Titans 'laid an egg' in Week 1 in a 26-16 home loss to the Raiders but rebounded with wins at Jacksonville and home to Seattle, to get back on track. However, the Titans were pulverized 57-14 in Week 4 at Houston and followed with a 16-10 loss in Miami last week, while seeing starting QB Marcus Mariota go down with a hamstring injury. The Colts know all to well about an injury to their starting QB, as Andrew Luck has yet to see action in 2017 and does not have an exact timetable to return from his shoulder woes. However, Indy has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place, with the Colts splitting his four games as the team's starting QB (Colts are 2-3, overall). Indianapolis: Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a TD last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a win-less team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco (also beat the now 0-6 Browns at home in Week 2). T.Y. Hilton had seven catches for 177 yards last week. Rookie RB Marlon Mack has given the Colts' running game a boost, with a 22-yard TD plus his 35-yard run set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard FGl in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing. Still, the Colts average only 100.0 YPG on the ground (20th) and their 19.4 PPG ranks only 22nd. The defense is a big problem, as the Colts rank last by allowing 31.8 PPG and 30th (of 32 teams) in total D (393.4 YPG), as well as passing yards (294.0 YPG). Tennessee: The Titans may be staring at another game without Marcus Mariota (hamstring) in its lineup. Mariota is hopeful that he can play. Matt Cassel came in after he got hurt last Sunday at Miami and was 21 of 32 for 141 yards (no completion longer than 17 yards) and was sacked six times! Tennessee's bread and butter has been its rushing attack but DeMarco Murray has just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests, as Miami limited the team to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. The Titans still rank 7th in rushing on the season, at 124.8 YPG. The defense (not helped by allowing Houtson 57 points in Week 4), is one spot behind the Colts in points allowed, at 28.4 per game (31st). The pick: It's fairly likely that ESPN would not have picked this as a Monday night game if it knew that Matt Cassel and Jacoby Brissett could be the opposing QBs. However, it seems as if Mariota will be able to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the Tennessee side, to get its season headed back in the right direction plus to end what has to be a wildly frustrating 11-game losing streak against the Colts (mostly at the hands of Andrew Luck). Brissett has surely been an excellent pickup (savior?) for Indy but let's not forget his only two wins have come over the Browns and 49ers, who check in a combined 0-12 in 2017. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees fell into an 0-2 hole against Cleveland but were able to win the final three games of that ALDS. The Yanks now find themselves in a second straight 0-2 hole here in the ALCS (a seven-game series), this time against the Astros. Houston owns MLB's best offense and the Yanks hit more HRs (241) than any team in MLB, yet each of the first two games resulted in 2-1 Houston wins. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." After rallying against the 102-win Cleveland Indians, the question is can New York do it again up against the 101-win Houston Astros? "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work." The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (14-7 & 3.62 ERA) gets the call for Houston and CC Sabathia (14-5 & 3.69 ERA) for the Yanks. Morton, in his 10th big-league season, authored a "career year" (see above), as the Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4 (0-0 & 4.15 ERA this postseason. CC Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. This marks his third postseason start and he pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9 2/3 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced (0-0 & 3.72 ERA this postseason). He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and he is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances (including 20 starts). The pick: After a pair on one-run games, should we expect anything different here in Game 3? The Astros are hitting .190 through two games, after batting .333 in the ALDS against Boston. As for New York, the Yankees enter Game 3 batting .159 with 27 strikeouts, four walks and just 16 total bases. Taking the 1 1/2 runs here could be a HUGE. Make the Astros an 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-38 | Loss | -113 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is the site of this Week 6 game between the 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals. The Bucs played a Week 5 home game vs. the Pats on Thursday night but lost 19-14, partly because PK Nick Folk missed three FGs. The Cardinals are hoping to climb back to .500, after a 34-7 loss last Sunday at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay: First things first. Folk's first season with Tampa Bay is over as he was placed on injured reserve with a "minor injury" classification, meaning the team must release him once he becomes healthy. Replacing Folk will be Patrick Murray, who appeared in two games for Cleveland last season after converting 20-of-24 field-goal attempts for the Buccaneers in 2014 (Heeee's back!). The Bucs need more consistency from QB Winston. He's got four TDs and zero INTs with a 103.6 QB rating in Tampa Bay's two wins but has three TDs and three INTs with an 83.6 QB rating in the team's two losses. The Bucs average just 86.0 YPG on the ground (27th) but it's good news that RB Doug Martin returned from his suspension vs. the Pats and gained 74 yards on 13 carries Arizona: The Cards allowed 419 yards of total offense at Philadelphia and checks in allowing 25.0 PPG (27th) on the season. QB Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense ranks second in passing yards (289.0 YPG) but the team is averaging only 16.2 PPG (29th). One of the issues is the NFL's werst rushing attack, as Arizona has averaged 51.8 YPG to rank dead-last, as does the team's 2.6 YPC average! Arizona obtained 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson from New Orleans on Tuesday with hopes that the 32-year-old will resemble his former self after enduring a miserable four-game tenure with the Saints (ran for 81 yards on 27 carries, averaging 3.0 YPC). The pick: Arizona is 2-3 with its two wins coming in OT victories at Indy and at home vs. San Francisco. Those two teams are a combined 2-8 SU and Arizona failed to cover either win. That means the Cards enter this game 0-5 ATS on the season. Adding insult to injury, the Cardinals had 13 players listed on their injury report earlier in the week and nine of them were starters, including All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson with a sore quadriceps. This marks only Tampa Bay's second road game of 2017 but it should be noted that the Bucs were 6-2 ATS on the road in 2016. The Cards have a 'washed-up' QB in Palmer and have now added a 'washed-up' RB in Adrian Peterson. That's hardly a good 'daily double!' Make the Bucs are 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lions opened the 2017 season 2-0 but have lost two of their last three and head to New Orleans at 3-2 to take on the rejuvenated Saints. New Orleans opened its season with double-digit losses at Minnesota and home to New England but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3, before beating the Dolphins 20-0 in a Week 4 London game. The first bye week was in Week 5 and the Saints were one of four teams getting an early rest. The Saints return to the playing field on Sunday and welcome a Lions team to the Superdome but the Lions have beaten the Saints in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans. Detroit: The Lions' plus-9 turnover margin had been a key to the team's 3-1 start but they couldn't force a TO against the Panthers last Sunday, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. QB Matthew Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but has done little in the team's other four games, averaging less than 50 yards per. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 87.6 YPG on the ground to rank 26th. Detroit has allowed a modest 19.4 PPG (11th) but a concern, after Newton ripped open the team's secondary, is that the Lions are starting to look like the pass D which allowed a historic (not in a good way) 72.7% completion rate in 2016, with 33 TD passes allowed, just 10 INTs and an opposing QB rating of 106.5 (NFL-worst in 2016). New Orleans. Drew Brees has watched the game film of Newton picking apart that Detroit pass D and he must be salivating. Brees hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts so far in 2017, while tossing eight TDs passes and earning a QB rating of 108.3. The "unhappy" Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona this week, which should make things more pleasant on the sidelines, give Mark Ingram a jolt of confidence plus get more "PT" for impressive rookie QB Alvin Kamara. Let's also note the incredible turnaround of New Orleans' pass D. New Orleans allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards (along with six TD passes) in opening 0-2 but in holding the Panthers and Dolphins to a combined 13 points in Week 3 & 4 wins, the Saints shut down Newton (167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs for a QB rating of 43.8) and Cutler (164 yards and one INT for a QB rating of 71.1). The pick. It's just not Brees who has been mistake-free, as the Saints are the only team to have no yet committed a turnover in 2017. In the process, they have become just the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season without a TO through its first four games (pretty heady stuff). Sure, the Saints are only 11-14 at the Superdome since 2014 but with a younger, more talented defense, there are signs the team is beginning to rise above mediocrity on that side of the ball. As for the Brees-led offense, there is nothing mediocre about them! Make New Orleans a 10* play. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio State -24 v. Nebraska | Top | 56-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes are 5-1 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 9 in the latest AP poll as they head to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the 3-3 (2-1 Big Ten) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Ohio State's season (meaning CFP hopes) took a huge hit with its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma back on Sep. 9 but the Buckeyes have won four straight since, while averaging 52.5 PPG. Nebraska was within seven points of No. 7 Wisconsin entering the fourth quarter last week but dropped a 38-17 decision after winning its first two Big Ten contests. However, a non-conference loss at Oregon and a 21-17 non-conference home loss to Northern Illinois (as a 10 1/2-point favorite), leaves Nebarska at 3-3 and in danger of falling under .500 with a loss here. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett under-performed against Oklahoma but has 13 TD passes without an INT (in 104 attempts), In Ohio State's current run. Dobbins (669 yards on 7.6 YPC and 4 TDs) has taken up the slack for Mike Weber, last year's 1,000-yard RB, who has not been healthy for much of 2017 (has 103 yards rushing the last two games, with four TDs). The offense has great balance, 320.3 YPG through the air (4th) and 247.7 YPG on the ground (18th), to average 45.8 PPG (4th). Urban Meyer teams always play D and this year's team is no exception, allowing 15.7 PPG (10th) on 290.7 YPG (14th). Nebraska: Much was expected from Tulane transfer Tanner Lee but the QB has been a huge disappointment. He's completing only 54.0 percent and has almost as many INTs (10), as TD passes (11). Nebraska's ground game is averaging only 148.5 YPG (82nd) with Devine Ozigbo leading the way with a modest 327 yards. Defensively, Nebraska is allowing 26.7 PPG (73rd) and will get its sternest test, here. The pick: Anyone doubting Barrett should be quiet now and as noted, his counterpart Lee, has been a fairly huge bust! With Nebraska relatively new to the Big Ten, the schools have met just five times, with Ohio State winning four of those meetings. Sure, Ohio State is a huge favorite on the road but since coming to Columbus, Meyer's teams are a remarkable 36-2 SU on the road, including 21-1 in conference road games. I'll 'live dangerously' and lay the points against an over-matched Nebraska team. Make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan -6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Michigan Wolverines lost at home to Michigan State last Saturday, falling from 7th in the AP poll to 17th. Jim Harbaugh is now just 1-4 SU vs. key Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Michigan State, something the Michigan faithful are clearly not happy about. The Wolverines look to bounce back this Saturday with a 12 noon ET kickoff in Bloomington, with the 3-2 Indiana Hoosiers (0-2 in Big Ten play) welcoming Michigan to town for the school's Homecoming game. No one will be surprised to learn that Michigan leads the series 56-9 or even that the Hoosiers have lost 35 of their last 36 meetings with the Wolverines, including 21 straight. Michigan: Wilton Speight won the QB battle against John O'Koren but was hardly establishing himself as the clear choice as Michigan's No. 1 QB. However, a season-ending injury to Speight at Purdue on Sep. 23 (back fractures), ended any debate. O'Korn played well enough at Purdue, completing 18 of 26 for 270 yards with one TD and one INT, as Michigan won 28-14. It's true that Michigan's offense wasn't exactly lighting things up with Speight on the field but the Wolverines couldn't get anything going at all last week with O'Korn leading the way, scoring just 10 points, going 5-17 on third down and turning the ball over five times. O'Korn was 16 of 35 for 198 yards without a TD and threw three INTs. It didn't help Speight and it won't help O'Korn that Michigan's running game is only mediocre, averaging 167.8 YPG (62nd). Last year's team averaged 213 per! Defensively, despite losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit, Michigan ranks first in total D (213.0 YPG) and just 13.6 PPG, which ranks 7th. Indiana: The Hoosiers opened their season in an August 31 game at home against Ohio State (lost 49-21) but have won three of four since. However, that loss came 45-14 at Penn State on Sep. 30. Indiana's 34-17 at Virginia looks good (Cavs are 4-1) but the team's other two wins mean little, besting Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern in Bloomington. Richard Lagow began the year as Indiana's starting QB and threw for 410 against Ohio State but redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey replaced him the following game after Lagow struggled. Ramsey led Indiana to that 34-17 win while completing 16 of 20 for 173 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. After Indiana was embarrassed at Penn State, Ramsey was given his first career start last Saturday. Sure, it was only against Charleston Southern, but he threw for 321 yards and two TDs. He also added 54 rushing yards and a third TD. Another freshman, WR Taysir Mack hauled in a career-high seven receptions for 111 yards and a pair of TDs to become the first Indiana freshman to surpass 100 receiving yards in a game since Tandon Doss achieved the feat in 2008. Indiana's defense allowed 27.2 PPG in 2016, after six consecutive seasons of allowing 30-plus PPG. It's improved on that again so far in 2017, allowing 25.6 PPG (59th). The pick: The Hoosiers' last win over Michigan was 30 years ago in Bloomington and Indiana won't end its 21-game long streak to Michigan here. However, should one "take the points?" Maybe, if Michigan had not lost last Saturday to Michigan State. This is just wrong time, wrong place for Indiana and losses of 49-21 and 45-14 against Penn State loom here as a reminder as to why to NOT take the points. Make Michigan an 8* play. |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +14 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 (3-0 in the Pac 12) for the first time since 2001. The Cougars moved into the AP's top-10 (at No. 8) after winning 33-10 at Oregon last Saturday. The Cal Golden Bears welcome the Cougars to Memorial Stadium on Friday night, off a 38-7 loss at current No. 7 Washington last Saturday in Seattle. Cal sits 3-3 overall but 0-3 in Pac 12 play. Washington State. Mike Leach suffered through two 3-9 seasons in his first three years at Cal but came into 2017 off back-to-back 9-4 and 8-5 records the last two seasons. He's got an outstanding QB in Luke Falk, who likely isn't getting getting enough Heisman hype. Falk is completing 71.8 percent with 19 TDs and just two INTs, while climbing up the leader boards for career marks in both the Pac 12 and among all FBS schools. All this, despite getting much help from a running game that averages 96.8 YPG (123rd). Still, WSU is averaging 39.7 PPG (20th) on 474.7 YPG (23rd). A huge improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball. Leach's last two teams held opponents to 27.7 and 26.4 PPG, respectively, after his first three teams in Pullman allowed 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG. Here in 2017, Wazzu is holding opponents to just 18.5 PPG (23rd) on 276.2 YPG (11th). Now that's an improvement! California: Cal opened 3-0 in non-conference play but has lost Pac 12 games 30-20 to USC, 45-24 at Oregon and 38-7 at Washington, a game in which the Bears were held to 93 yards of total offense. After averaging 37.1 PPG last season, Cal is averaging just 24.3 PPG (96th) in 2017. However, while Cal allowed 42.6 PPG in 2016, the Bears have held opponents to 29.8 PPG in 2017 (ranks 89th but that's almost two TDs per game less!). The pick: Cal's been outscored by an average of 20.7 PPG in its 0-3 Pac 12 start and as first-year head coach Justin Wilcox put it, “We just, across the board, have got to be better. It’s hard right now. We’re sitting at 3-3, we’ve lost three in a row, we haven’t played well enough. We’ve got to be better.” While the Bears’ offense is in disarray, the defense continues to show steady improvement. I'll note that Leach's team is 16-7 ATS a visitor since 2013 but only 2-3 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Here, the Cougars are favored by about two TDs. That's too much. Make Cal a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles opened the 2016 season 3-0 in September, behind rookie QB Carson Wentz. However, Wentz and his team cooled off fairly quickly, losing nine of their next 11 games, before ending the season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish 7-9. The Eagles are at it again in 2017, opening 4-1 and the question is, is this real or is it Memorex? We may get our answer Thursday night, when the Eagles travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the 4-1 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were 15-1 in 2015 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl but fell from first to last in the NFC South in 2016, going 6-10. However, this year's team and particularly QB Cam Newton, are beginning to look much more like the 2015 team than last year's sad-sack unit. Again, we may just learn something about the Panthers here on Thursday night, as well. Philadelphia: Wentz continues to make converts of the non-believers, as he's leading an offense averaging 27.4 PPG (7th). He's completing 62.1% with 10 TDs and just three INTs (97.7 QB rating), while the Eagles rank 8th in passing (259.0 YPG). RB LeGarrette Blount is starting to make an impact (323 yards rushing) and the Eagles' 138.8 YPG on the ground ranks 5th. The defense is allowing 19.8 PPG (13th) and excels in stopping opponents' ground game, allowing just 62.8 YPG (2nd-best). The problem against Carolina and Newton may be, that Philly's pass D allows 283.2 YPG, which ranks 29th of 32 teams. Carolina: The Panthers opened 2-0 but were hardly impressive in doing so, beating the sad-sack 49ers 23-3 and the Bills 9-3. When Carolina lost 34-13 at home to the then 0-2 Saints 34-13 in Week 3, with Newton passing for just 167 yards and throwing three INTs (QB rating of 43.8), critics were everywhere. However, what a difference a couple of weeks can make. Newton led the Panthers to a 33-30 win at New England in Week 5 and then at Detroit last Sunday, 27-24. He's earned QB ratings of 130.8 and 141.8, while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs (just one INT in 61 attempts). He has a trio of quality receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Ed Dickson and Devin Funchess (not to mention rookie RB Christian McCaffrey's 27 catches) but Carolina's ground game needs to improve (its 98.6 YPG ranks only 19th). Defensively, Carolina is allowing only 274.0 YPG (3rd) and just 18.8 PPG (9th), down from 25.1 PPG in 2016. The pick: All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions, routing the Cardinals 34-7. Philly fans are clearly riding high but while the Eagles' bandwagon is becoming crowded let's insert here that Philly's current three-game win streak has come over the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals, who are a combined 2-13 SU. Then again, here's the other side of that. The Eagles only loss of the 2017 season is 27-20 at the Chiefs, who are 5-0 SU and ATS. Love what Newton's done the last two weeks but the Panthers are 0-2 ATS at home in 2017 (averaging just 11.0 PPG), after going 3-5 ATS at home in 2016. I'm taking the points and making the Eagles an 8* play. |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Troy Trojans are coming off 10-3 season (including a 28-23 bowl win over Ohio) with 14 returning starters, including eight on offense. Troy lost its season opener 24-13 at Boise State but has since won four in a row, including the team's "historic 24-21 win at LSU on Sep. 30 as about a three-TD underdog (that win ended LSU's 49-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents). Troy did not play last Saturday and now hosts South Alabama in this Wednesday game. The Jags also went 'bowling' last year, although the team was just 6-6, before getting routed in the Arizona Bowl 45-21 by Air Force to finish 6-7. Preseason predictions had the Jags possibly getting back to another bowl game but the Jags are just 1-4, with the team's lone win coming 45-0 over Alabama A&M. South Alabama: Like Troy, South Alabama was off the first Saturday in October and last played at La. Tech on Sep. 30, losing 34-16. USA only trailed 17-16 after three quarters but the Bulldogs took control with a 17-0 fourth quarter run to finish the game. South Alabama was out-gained 479-333 and gave the ball away twice while committing seven penalties. The offense has not done much, averaging 22.6 PPG (200th) on 329.0 YPG (113th). The good news is that the Jags' starting QB, Cole Garvin, returned from an injury vs. La Tech,. He was just 21 of 45 for 235 yards with one TD and two INTs but he now has a game under his belt plus has had the first 10 days of October to practice. RB Xavier Johnson gives his some 'cover,' as he's run for 345 yards on 6.1 YPC (4 TDs). The defense is hardly much of a 'stop unit' though, allowing 30.8 PPG (91st) on 421.2 YPG (86th). Troy: The Trojans need to 'come down' from that LSU shocker and the good news is, the team has had a 10-day break since that Sep. 30 win. The Trojans are looking to win for a fifth straight time and enter having gone 7-1 SU at home since the start of the 2016 season. QB Brandon Silvers had 22 TD passes last season in leading Troy to an average of 33.7 PPG but after five games of the 2017 season, he has just two TD passes and while the Trojans are averaging 431.2 YPG (49th), they are scoring just 24.0 PPG (99th). Defense has been the key, as Troy is allowing only 18.6 PPG (24th) on 344.6 YPG (32nd) The pick: Sure, Troy has had some extra time off to "take in" its thrilling upset of LSU in "Death Valley" but while I noted earlier that Troy comes in on a 7-1 SU run at home since the beginning of the 2016 season, I'll add here that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in those games. In fact, while Troy checks in at 14-4 SU since the start of 2016, it is also a money-burning 4-10 ATS when favored in that span, including 0-3 so far in 2017. Make that 0-4 in 2017 as a favorite! Take the points and make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The D'backs destroyed the Dodgers in six straight meetings near the end of the season, when LA was in a deep funk. However, LA's bats have toyed with Arizona's pitching in taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS. LA won Game 1, 9-5 and Game 2, 8-5. That's 17 runs scored on 24 hits. The Dodgers have looked every bit the part of the team that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories. The D'backs have 'limped' home but they can take heart in the fact that they are 53-29 at Chase Field in 2017 (including an 11-8 wild card win over Colorado), outscoring opponents 5.71-to-4.32 RPG. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (10-12 & 3.86 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and will be opposed by Zack Greinke (17-7 & 2.89 ERA). Darvish did finish the season 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.47 ERA). However, he's not had a good season and that's an understatement. Combine his starts with Texas and LA and his moneyline mark of minus-$1302 is the third-worst among all starters in 2017. Throw in the fact that he has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts and one wonders just why LA manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference, "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu." It's true that Greinke has been ineffective over his last three starts, giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings (including lasting just 3 2/3 innings in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies). That said, how does one ignore that the D'backs went 22-10 in all of Greinke's starts this regular season, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$971 (8th-best among all starters). The pick: Greinke is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Arizona manager Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready." Sure, Greinke was terrible last Wednesday but he's on full rest and the D'backs are 16-3 in his Chase Field starts this season. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Arizona an 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings -3 v. Bears | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a MNF game featuring two teams from what was once the NFL's "Black and Blue Division," now the NFC North. The 2-2 Minnesota Vikings will visit Chicago's Soldier Field on ESPN to take on the 1-3 Bears. The Vikings are hoping that Sam Bradford is ready to return as the team's starting QB for this one (after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener), while the Bears will hand the starting QB job over to Mitchell Trubisky, the second overall pick of the 2017 draft out of North Carolina. He'll make his NFL debut after off-season acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sep. 28. Minnesota: The Vikings' two wins this season have come at home (29-19 over the Saints and 34-17 over the Bucs), while Minnesota has lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh and last week at home to the Lions, 14-7. Keenum has completed 61.0% for 755 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (94.4 QB rating) but he's not Bradford. The former Heisman-winner and No. 1 overall draft pick set an NFL single-season record by completing 71.6% of his passes in 2016 and against New Orlean in Week 1, connected on 27 of 32 (that's 84.0%) for 346 yards with three TDs and did not throw a pick (143.0 QB rating). The Vikings not only fell to Detroit last week but also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) to a torn left ACL that will cost him the remainder of the season. Cook had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus contests and will be replaced by Latavius Murray (signed a three-year, $15 million deal in the off-season). He will inherit the bulk of the workload but note he's coming off ankle surgery during the off-season that still has him feeling less than 100 percent (has just 38 yards rushing this season). Defensively, the Vikings rank T-8th in points allowed (19.0 per) and 12th in total yards (318.0 YPG). Chicago: It didn't take long for Chicago to sour on Glennon (anyone know what the team liked about him in the first place?) and Trubisky will have an opportunity to showcase his abilities in front of millions of viewers, as he makes his debut on MNF. "Ifeel like I'm ready," Trubisky said to reporters this week. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday. I'm going to be dependent on my teammates a lot. My job is to get the ball to the playmakers and just be a distributor and manage the offense and do the best I can." He doesn't figure to get too much help from Chiacgo's average at-best running game plus while the Chicago defense has allowed 306.2 YPG (9th), the Bears have allowed 26.0 PPG, which ranks 27th. The pick: The return of Bradford would be HUGE news for Minnesota (he's listed as questionable) but the Vikings will also be buoyed by the fact that WR Michael Floyd has also been reinstated after a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Floyd joins a talented group of WRs that includes Stefon Diggs (22 catches / 17.8 YPC and Adam Thielen (24 catches / 14.9 YPC). Whether it's Bradford (hopefully) or Kennum, I'll take the Vikings against Trubuiskty, who had just one season of note at North Carolina. Trubisky had his moments in the preseason but playing against disinterested starters and backups is quite different than playing a division rival on MNF in one's first-ever NFL start. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats have been playoff buts in recent years and were on the verge of falling into an 0-2 hole against the Cubs in Game 2 at Nationals Park. Chicago had a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th, with Washington having score just one run on four hits through the first 16 innings of the series. However, Bryce Harper's two-run HR tied the game and Ryan Zimmerman's three-run blast powered a five-run explosion, as the Cubs won 6-3. The series now resumes late this afternoon at Wrigley Field tied at one apiece. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (16-6 & 2.51 ERA) will get the ball for Washington and Jose Quintana (11-11 & 4.15 ERA) for Chicago. The Nationals are unsure just what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer hasn't pitched since Sep. 30 when he left his final regular-season start with what he referred to at the time as a "small tweak" in his right hamstring. He was scheduled to pitch Game 1 against the Cubs but was pushed back to Game 3 to provide him extra time to build more strength and endurance in his hamstring. He was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, althoiugh his teams are only 3-3. Quintana has been an excellent pickup by the Cubs (traded away by the cross-town White Sox), going 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts for the Cubs. The Cubs have his last six starts with Quintana posting a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals. The pick: With Scherzer's health a question mark, I'm not sure why the Nats should be favored at Wrigley over the defending champs. Especially when one considers that the Cubs have gone 10-4 in Quintana's 14 starts , including 7-1 here at Wrigley. What's more, Scherzer is win-less in his last five postseason starts. The Cubs’ pitching staff has completely dominated the Nats' lineup, except for that one inning. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 8* play. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 138 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks needed a breakout game (win) last Sunday night and the sad-sack Colts played the perfect foil, as the Seattle romped to a 46-18 victory. That evened the team's record at 2-2 and now in Week 5, the Seahawks will travel to Los Angeles to take on one of 2017's surprise NFL teams, the Rams. The Rams were 4-12 in 2016, the team's first season back in LA (had moved to St Louis for the start of the season), finishing as the NFL's most-impotent offense (14.0 PPG on 262.7 YPG). However, QB Jared Goff (0-7 as a starter as a rookie), has led a turnaround that has the Rams 3-1 and looking for a third straight win in this contest with Seattle. Seattle:The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game against the Titans, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs and had 295 yards plus two more TDs against the Colts. The Seattle offense which has scored just 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2, has scored 73 points the last two games. Maybe more importantly, after allowing Tennessee to roll up 420 yards in Week 3, Seattle's defense looked more like the one we've seen in recent years, allowing the Colts to gain only 237 total yards. LA Rams: Jared Goff has played like a No. 1 overall pick through four games, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,072 yards with seven TDs and just one interception in 117 attempts (QB rating of 112.2). RB Todd Gurley has 362 rushing yards with four TDs plus leads the team with 20 catches. Goff also has developing 'go-to' WRs in Sammy Watkins (14 catches) and Robert Woods (12). After averaging woeful totals on offense in 2016 (see above), the 2017 Rams are the NFL's top-scoring team (35.5 PPG) on 386.5 YPG (5th). However, the defense adds little 'cover,' ranking 28th in points allowed (26.2 per) on 2367.8 YPG (ranks 27th). The pick: Seattle's offense found its groove in the second half against the Titans and 'poured it on' in the second half of last Sunday night's against the Colts. The Seahawks rolled up a season-high 194 rushing yards last Sunday night, while QB Wilson had the most accurate game of his career in connecting on 21 of 26 passes. The defense isn't as elite as its been in the past but it was much better in Week 4. Sure, the Rams' offense will be a tougher test but Seattle's offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Rams defense which ranks among the worst in the NFL. Let's not forget that Seattle has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, while the Rams haven't had a winning season since 2003! Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ford Field in Detroit is the site of a Week 5 game between a pair of 3-1 teams. The Panthers went from a 15-1 regular season and a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos in 2015, to a 6-10 record in 2016, which left them in last-place in the NFC South. The Detroit Lions were 9-7 last year (lost in the wild card round), the team's third postseason appearance in the last six years. That said, expectations were pretty low entering 2017, so the team's 3-1 start is a surprise, especially since its lone loss (30-26 to the Falcons), was to say the least, highly controversial. Carolina: The Panthers won 33-30 last Sunday at New England, with QB Cam Newton reminding all of his MVP-like talent. He completed 22 of 29 for 316 yards and three TDs plus ran for 44 yards and another score. Jonathan Stewart had his best game of 2017 so far, gaining 68 yards on 14 carries. However, Newton's positive mojo has been interrupted Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford has shown a newfound maturity (signed a 'monster' deal prior to the season), throwing seven TD passes with only one interception in 138 attempts. RB Ameer Abdullah appears headed for a breakout season, after rushing for a career-high 94 yards and a TD in last week’s 14-7 triumph at Minnesota.The third-year RB from Nebraska had 597 yards as a rookie but played in just two games last season. He has 257 yards after four games in 2017, putting him on pace for a 1,00-yard season. The Lions are just a half-yard shy of being the only undefeated team in the NFC. Detroit lost its last home game when, upon an officials' review, Golden Tate was ruled just short of the goal line in the closing seconds against Atlanta. The game ended on that play, because a 10-second runoff was required after the review because the Lions didn't have any timeouts left. The pick: Noting all of the above, I'm still skeptical about this Detroit team. The Lions have been extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in scoring offense (24.8 PPG) and fourth in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) despite being 24th in total offense (just 299.8 YPG) and 15th in total defense. Their plus-9 turnover margin has played a huge role in that and the question I have is, can they keep it up? Throw in that PK Matt Prater has made an NFL-record four FGs of 55 yards or longer this season, after just four games. It's called "regression to the mean." Make Carolina an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Connor McDavid was made the league's highest-paid player in the off-season (signed eight-year, $100 million contract) and wasted no time looking to prove he's worth every penny. He had seven shots on goal in the Oilers' season-opener Wednesday vs. Calgary, scoring all of the team's goals in a 3-0 win. Goalie Cam Talbot 'pitched' a 26-save shutout. The Oilers play their first road game of the season tonight in Vancouver, as the Canucks play their season-opener. Vancouver was 30-43-9 (7th in the Pacific Division), finishing with the second-fewest goals in the league. The Canucks produced just 11 goals in a season-ending eight-game losing streak. Edmonton: The Oilers are a 'sexy' pick to win the West Conference this coming season and we saw nothing Wednesday to dull those expectations. Cam Talbot tied for the league lead with 42 wins last season and looked sharp in his 19th career shutout. "I would start the season with a win any day of the week -- the shutout is just an added bonus," Talbot said. "To play the way we did tonight defensively and to start out with a shutout is pretty special." Edmonton is predominantly a young team but the Oilers are setting their sights on a Stanley Cup after rebuilding largely through four first-overall draft picks that resulted from six mediocre seasons. Vancouver: The Canucks opened last season with four straight victories (all at home) but it was all downhill from there. They followed that hot start by losing their next nine, en route to a last-place finish in the Pacific Division. Henrik and Daniel Sedin have enjoyed long and illustrious careers with Vancouver but the fact that the 37-year-old twins comprise the team's top line speaks volumes of the challenges awaiting the Canucks and new coach Travis Green. Bo Horvat was the only player to score 20 goals and joined Daniel Sedin as the only ones to eclipse 50 points. The Canucks will be looking for Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi to continue their rise after notching career highs of 19 and 18 goals, respectively. Veterans Thomas Vanek and Sam Gagner were brought in to bolster the attack while the hope is that Loui Eriksson can rebound after dipping from 30 goals in 2015-16 to 11 last season. There is talent on the blue line, headed by Alexander Edler and youngsters Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher, but neither Jakob Markstrom nor Anders Nilsson has been proven to be a full-time starter in net. The pick: OK, Edmonton is the far superior team but let's not forget, Vancouver opened last season with four straight wins. Deja vu here in October 2017? Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Canucks a 6* play. |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +13 v. Michigan | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan State was a huge flop in 2016, opening No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but wound up finishing with a 3-9 record. However, the Spartans are 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) to open 2017, having lost to only current No. 21, Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh has led Michigan to back-to-back 10-3 seasons and his Wolverines opened No. 11 in this season's AP preseason poll. Now, four games into the 2017 season, Michigan is 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 7. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn battled for the starting QB job in the spring, with Speight winning. However, O'Korn came off the bench to replace Speight last week vs. Purdue and was impressive (18-of-26 for 270 yards and a TD). Speight will miss "multiple weeks," according to Harbaugh, so it's now OKorn's job. Michigan State: The Spartans are 3-1 SU & ATS so far but all games have come at home. They look for a "statement victory" when they take to the road for the first time this season on Saturday. QB Brian Lewerke is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 963 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. Lewerke also leads the way with 248 rushing yards (2 TDs), as MSU averages 187.5 YPG (52nd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing just 18.0 PPG (21st) on 248.3 YPG (4th). Michigan: The Wolverines average a modest 223.0 YPG passing (72nd), regardless of who has been under center (mostly Speight). The ground game is averaging 184.2 YPG (53rd), led by Ty Isaac (356 yards and just one TD). Defense is Michigan's strong suit again in 2017, despite the Wolves' losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit. No matter, Michigan is allowing 13.5 PPG (8th) on 203.2 YPG, which is best in the nation! The pick: This is the 110th meeting (has been contested each year since 1945!) with Michigan leading 69-35-5. However, aren't we talking pointspreads here? If so, you may be interested that Michigan State is on a current nine-game ATS winning streak in its series with “big brother” Michigan. Expect a defensive battle, so taking all these points is the way to go. Make Michigan State an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +16 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Notre Dame will bring its 4-1 record to Chapel Hill to take on the 1-4 Tar Heels. The Fighting Irish's lone loss came 20-19 against Georgia, which is now 5-0 and ranked 5th in the latest AP poll. The Irish are a complete football team, which is hardly the case with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has allowed at least 27 points in all four of its losses and 23 in its lone win, beating ODU 53-23. However, ODU's only wins have come against FCS Albany and UMass, a team which owns the longest active losing streak among FBS teams (nine). Against Va Tech, ODU lost 38-0! Notre Dame: I stated that Notre Dame is a complete football team but that's when QB Barndon Wimbush and RB Josh Adams are healthy. Wimbush is a true multi-threat, passing for 783 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while rushing for 402 yards (5.9 YPC) with eight TDs, Adams lead the team with 658 rush yards (9.0 YPC) and four TDs. Notre Dame is averaging a whopping 301.4 YPG on the ground (7th), a big reason the team has averaged 41.4 PPG (14th). The defense has been solid, allowing just 18.2 PPG (23rd). North Carolina: QB Chazz Surratt has thrown for 988 yards with five TDs and two interceptions, while Jordan Brown is the top rusher for North Carolina with 269 yards and three TDs on 5.0 YPC. The defense allowed 403yards rushing (6.1 YPC) against Ga. Tech (lost 33-7) and now must contend with ND's ground 'assault!' That hardly seems likely, as the Tar Heels rank 113th in allowing 221.8 YPG on the ground. The pick: QB Surratt is a freshman who beat out transfer Brandon Harris for the job of replacing No. 2 overall NFL pick Mitchell Trubisky and he's just one of the many new personnel changes on offense for North Carolina. Notre Dame has been dominant outside of its tough one-point loss to Georgia but here, the numbers just seems unseasonably (or is that unreasonably?) high, especially if Winbush and Adams are limited. Take the huge home dog and make North Carolina a 10* play. |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-3 schools (both 0-1 in the ACC) will meet early Saturday afternoon at the Carrier Dome, when Pittsburgh visits Syracuse. The Panthers own wins over Youngstown State (FCS) and Rice (1-4), while losing to ranked teams Penn State (current No. 4) and Oklahoma State (current No. 15), as well as 3-1 Georgia Tech. Syracuse owns wins over Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan in its first three games (lost to MTSU in between), then lost its last two to LSU and NC State. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are off a 42-10 win over Rice (snapping a three-game losing streak), as QB Max Browne was 28-of-32 for 410 yards (just the ninth 400-yard passing game in school history) and four TDs and zero TDs. It was the best performance of his career. Browne gets very little help from Pitt's running game, which averages only 114.4 YPG (110th). Despite last week';s 42 points, Pitt is averaging a modest 24.4 PPG, which ranks 98th. The same is true for Pitt's D, as despite holding Rice to just 10 points, the Panthers are allowing 31.6 PPG (101st) on 441.2 YPG (105th). Syracuse: The Orange lost 33-25 to the Wolfpack at NC State in their last game but QB Eric Dungey went 30-of-47 for 385 yards, one score and a pick, while also leading the with 16 carries for 44 yards and two TDs rushing. Dungey has averaged 287.4 YPG through the air (Syracuse ranks 15th in passing YPG)) with seven TDs, along with 277 rushing yards and another seven TDs. WR Ervin Philips was named ACC Receiver of the Week after breaking school and conference records with 17 receptions for a career-high 188 yards against the Wolfpack. Despite a reasonably taxing early schedule, the Syracuse defense is allowing 24.4 PPG (55th) on 357.6 YPG (50th). The pick: These schools have played every year since 1955 and the Panthers have won 13 of the last 15. However, Syracuse is the better team here in 2017 and won't forget that Pittsburgh won a 76-61 shootout against them in the regular-season finale for both teams last season, a contest which was the highest-scoring game in FBS history. Syracuse gets the win and cover this time around (10*). |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Thursday Night football on CBS to open NFL Week 5 of the 2017 season. The 2-2 New England Patriots will visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There was talk prior to the season that the Pats just could go 16-0 in 2017 but not only are the Pats just 2-2, they are a last-second Brady TD pass against Houston in Week 3 from being 1-3! Tampa Bay saw its Week 1 games vs. the Dolphins postponed to later in the season due to Hurricane Irma and enters 2-1 after edging the Giants 25-23 last Sunday at home, on 34-yard FG with no time left on the clock. There is not a lot of history between the two clubs, with the Pats leading the all-time series 6-2. New England: Tom Brady may be 40 years-old but he is NOT the problem for New England. He's completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,399 yards (Pats rank 1st with 328.3 YPG through the air) with 10 TDs and not a single interception in 155 attempts (QB rating is 116.6). New featured runner Mike Gillislee is sitting on 57 carries for 194 yards with four TDs but hasn't topped 70 yards in a game (Pats average 95.5 rushing YPG to rank 20th). TE Rob Gronkowski is New England’s top receiver with 20 receptions for 318 yards and two TDs. New England is averaging 32.2 PPG (2nd), so again, that's not the problem. The issue is, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick, having allowed 128 points and 1,827 total yards, an average of 32.0 PPG (31st) and 456.8 yards YPG (32nd). According to STATS, since the 1970 NFL merger, it's the most points allowed in the first four games by a team that had the best scoring defense in the previous season (Pats allowed just 15.6 PPG in 2016). Tampa Bay: Expectations were high for the Bucs entering 2017.QB Jameis Winston came up big in Sunday's 25-23 home win against the Giants, going 5-for-5 on the final drive that led to the game-winning FG as time expired. He was 22-for-38 with 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants but in the team's 34-17 loss in Week 3 at Minnesota, he threw three INTs and fumbled twice (did not lose one, though). Still, consistency is Winston's problem (safe to say he's no Brady). Tampa Bay has had no running game, averaging 84.7 YPG to rank 26th but the good news is, Doug Martin returns after a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs (he sat out the final week of 2016). Martin's had a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his previous five years. The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed (394.3 per game) but is a middle-of-the-pack 16th in points allowed (21.3 PPG). The pick: The Bucs need to run the ball better and while Martin is back with the team, it's unclear how much of a role he will play in his season debut. I noted Tampa Bay's overall defensive stats above but will add that most of the damage against the Bucs has come through the air, as they rank 31st in allowing 315.7 YPG. How can that be good news against Brady, who was 9-0 on Thursday nights until New England lost to Kansas City in its season opener? The Pats were a perfect 8-0 SU on the road in 2016 and won their lone road game of 2017 against New Orleans, 36-20. Like in this contest, the Pats were coming off a loss vs. the Saints and after taking down New Orleans, the Pats improved to an impressive 43-6 SU off a loss! How does one buck that trend? With a victory on Thursday night, Brady (185-54) will tie Brett Favre (186-112) and Peyton Manning (186-79) for the most regular-season wins in NFL history. Expect Brady to chalk up another 'notch' on his ever-growing NFL legacy. Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville -4 v. NC State | Top | 25-39 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville and NC State are both 4-1 as the two ACC schools meet Thursday night on ESPN at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. Louisville comes in ranked 14th and NC State just entered the AP top-25 for the first time this past Sunday, at No. 24. Louisville's loss came to current No. 2 Clemson, while NC State lost to South Carolina of the SEC. Both schools are in the ACC's Atlantic Division, which Clemson leads at 3-0. Since Louisville lost to Clemson, it is 1-1 in league play and can ill-afford another league loss to NC State, which comes into this game at 2-0. The series history reveals that Louisiille has won six of the seven all-time meetings, with the Wolfpack's lone win coming in the 2011 Belk Bowl, before Louisville joined the ACC. Louisville: The Cardinals feature reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and while it's highly-unlikely that Jackson will repeat, he's having an excellent season. He's completing 64.0% for an average of 327.2 YPG passing with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's Louisville's leading rusher as well, rushing for 437 yards (6.1 YPC) and five TDs, for a unit averaging 210.2 YPG on the ground (33rd). The Card are putting up 40.0 PPG (23rd) and allowing 24.6 PPG (51st), although they are doing better in yards allowed, ranking 27th at 317.6 YPG. NC State: The Wolfpack opened up the year with a home loss to South Carolina but has rattled off four straight wins over Marshall, Furman, Florida State and Syracuse. Three of the wins are no big deal and the FSU win's value is TBD! QB Ryan Finley has completed 71.9% for an average of 280.6 YPG through the air, throwing nine TD passes and not a single interception in 192 pass attempts. The running game is average at-best (168.2 YPG ranks 64th), as is the team's defense, which allows 23.4 PPG (52nd) on 370.4 YPG (60th). It's been "hard times" at Louisville as of late with the revelations surounding the basketball program but that's unlikely to faze the football team. As noted above, NC State's wins have hardly been impressive (jury is still out on the FSU win) and just how did the Wolfpack lose at home to South Carolina, if it's really a top-25 team? Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino is 14-0 against North Carolina-based schools and Lamar Jackson just 'destroyed' NC State's defense in last year's meeting, accounting for 431 yards of total offense and four TDs in a 54-13 win. Is this game "too much" for NC State? Maybe so, as the last time NC State won a game between two ranked teams in Raleigh came all the way back in 1992, against Wake Forest (not exactly a FB power!). Make Louisville a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers are coming off a third straight 100-point season but hope to do better than only reaching the second round of the playoffs, where they were upset by the Ottawa Senators in six games last spring. As for the Colorado Avalanche, they were so bad last season (22-56-4) that it's almost impossible for this season to be worse. The Avalanche managed just 48 points last season, the lowest total since the expansion Atlanta Thrashers totaled 39 points in the 1999-2000 season. The Avalanche finished last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3). The two teams will open their respective seasons against each other at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night in New York City. Colorado: Clearly, there is nowhere for Colorado to go but up. Potential trade pieces Matt Duchene and captain Gabriel Landeskog remained with the club during last year's dismal campaign but let's see how they fare, this time around at the trade deadline. Mikko Rantanen's 20 goals led the way for Colorado, which needs more on the offensive front from former top overall picks Nathan MacKinnon (team-best 37 assists, 53 points) and Nail Yakupov (three goals) as well as second-overall selection Landeskog (18 goals). Colorado's former Vezina Trophy finalist Semyon Varlamov, who is returning from a hip surgery, will be put to the test in short order behind a leaky defense that yielded a league-worst 276 goals. NY Rangers: New York (48-28-6, 4th in Metropolitan Division) boasts substantial depth as opposed to individual stars on offense, with Chris Kreider (club-high 28 goals), Mats Zuccarello (team-leading 44 assists, 59 points), Kevin Hayes (49 points) and Mika Zibanejad (37 points). The 33-year-old Rick Nash (23 goals) enters the final season of a four-year deal that pays the him $7.8 million. The biggest off-season changes for New York occurred with one trade designed to create cap space, dealing top center Derek Stepan and backup goaltender Antti Raanta to the Arizona Coyotes. The Rangers filled the hole left by Stepan from within the organization but had to sign former Winnipeg Jets goaltender Ondrej Pavelec to back up Lundqvist.The Rangers also signed smooth-skating free agent Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year, $26.6 million contract to calm the waters following the off-season departure of respected defenseman Dan Girardi. Shattenkirk will make his official debut on Broadway, tonight. Speaking of Lundqvist, he endured his worst season last year since entering the NHL in 2005-06, so the Rangers are hoping Shattenkirk's presence helps fortify the defense and takes pressure off the veteran goaltender. The pick: While it's easy to say "it can't get worse than last year for the Avalanche," we don't know that. However, I believe it will be better and as for the Rangers, a 100-point season may be beyond the team' reach in the top-heavy Metropolitan Division.. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Colorado an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 144 h 20 m | Show |
Indianapolis: With Luck still on the shelf, the Colts made a trade with the Pats to get QB Jacoby Brissett after they were routed 46-9 by the Rams in Week 1. Brissett was a noticeable improvement over Scott Tolzein and the Colts took the Cards to OT before losing in Week 2. Then last Sunday, Brissett led the Colts with 259 passing yards and a TD on 17 of 24 passing, while also notching a pair of rushing TDs. He became the first QB in franchise history to rush for two TDs, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards! T.Y. Hilton had a huge game with seven catches for 153 yards with one TD. The running game still needs to improve, as the Colts are averaging 81.0 YPG (25th). After getting shredded by the Rams for 46 points, Indy's D held the Cardinals to 16 points in an OT, then had a sack and three interceptions against the Browns. Seattle: The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game last Sunday, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs but to no avail with Seattle's defense going 'south!' Like th Colts, Seattele needs to get its running going, averaging only 96.7 YPG (19th) through the first three games. Getting back to Seattle's defense, it has long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher but it has now allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray (115) and the Titans last Sunday. The pick: Sure, Brissett gives the Colts a better shot but note the team's two competitive games were at home, while Indy was crushed in its lone road game (see above). The Seahawks are in unfamiliar territory at 1-2 and have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons. However, Seattle's offense finally came to life after two ugly efforts to open the season and should have few problems scoring here against the Colts D. Seattle's D is off an embarrassing effort and will rebound in this one. Look out Mr. Brissett. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Eagles +1 v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 140 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles are off to a solid 2-1 start in 2017 (QB Carson Wentz is now 5-1 in September games) but Sunday is October 1st and the Eagles are traveling cross-country for their Week 4 game. However, the good news is, Philly's opponent is the now-Los Angeles Chargers (at StubHub Center in Carson, Ca.), who have opened 0-3 in 2017, after ending the 2016 season 0-5 (combined run of 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS). Philadelphia: Wentz has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 816 yards with five TDs and two INTs (90.3 QB rating). He's led the Eagles to 25.7 PPG (10th), somewhat helped by a running game averaging 119.3 YPG (9th) but on a solid 4.5 YPC. LeGarrette Blount has underachieved so far, with only 113 yards in three games (we'll see?). Philly's secondary noticeably wore down in last Sunday's narrow 27-24 win over N.Y. Giants (New York scored all 24 of its points in the fourth quarter) and on the season, Philly has allowed 22.7 PPG (20th) on 321.0 YPG (21st). LA Chargers: The Chargers opened with two close losses (24-21 at Denver & 19-7 at home vs. Miami). They then lost 24-10 at home to KC last week, although they held KC to a modest 311 yards (three Rivers INTS led to 17 points!). LA has allowed 22.3 PPG (a little worse than average (ranks 19th) on 322.7 YPG, which is a little better than average (ranks 13th). QB Philip Rivers went 20-of-40 for 237 yards and three picks against KC and comes in completing 65.2% for 760 yards with four TDs and four INTs. The running game is once again proving to be a liability. Gordon is averaging 48.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the team checks in at 70.7 YPG rushing, ranking 27th. The Chargers will be in for a very long season if they can't average more than the 16.0 points they have through three games (ranks 26th)! The pick: This marks the Chargers' third straight home game and while two of the team's three losses this year have been closely contested (lost by three and two points), the Chargers are making a habit of losing "the close ones." The team has seemingly mastered the art of losing close games. It lost an NFL-high eight games last year by seven points less and has already lost two more in that range in 2017. With just nine wins since the beginning of the 2015 season (two-plus seasons), I want no part of the Chargers against a Philly team which just may be 'sneaky good!' Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-01-17 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
\ The set-up. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday, although there is clearly nothing much at stake. In fact, both teams are facing off-seasons which will be likely to be filled with change, including hiring new managers. Collins (69) is the oldest manager in baseball and has steered the Mets for seven seasons, longer than anyone else in team history but a tough 2017 has taken its toll. Is it just a matter of when he is fired? As for the Phillies, Pete Mackanin is already out as Phillies manager, although he's been allowed to manage this final weekend series.The Phillies won Saturday but the Mets won 7-4 in 11 innings on Saturday, when Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run HR in the 11th inning. For Phildelphia, the Phillies played well enough down the stretch (have gone 22-17 at home since the All Star break) to avoid a 100-loss season and at 65-96, cannot finish with MLB's worst record (Giants are 63-98). The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (1-2 & 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets and Nick Pivetta (7-10 & 6.26 ERA) for the Phillies. Syndergaard was rocked for five runs in 1 1/3 innings of a 23-5 loss at Washington on April 30 and was then shelved with a tear in his lat muscle. His 'story' was emblematic of the Mets' season. He made a one-inning start Sep. 23 (also against the Nationals), allowing just one single in a scoreless inning that required only five pitches. Syndergaard's last full start was against Philadelphia on April 20, when he struck out 10 and allowed three ERs in seven innings, which left him 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his five career starts versus the Phillies. Pivetta has won two straight starts, allowing two ERs on nine hits over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 12 strikeouts. However, the rookie owns a 1.52 WHIP and .287 BAA to go along with his ugly 6.26 ERA. He had perhaps his best start of the year at New York on July 2, allowing a run and one hit over seven innings to get the win, but was reached for 12 runs in 9 2/3 innings over the next two meetings with the Mets! The Phillies are 10-15 in all of his starts in this, his rookie season. The pick:Syndergaard won't stay around long (he's expected to be limited to around 25 pitches) but I'll still back the Mets here, as Pivetta has been rocked in his last two outings by the Mets (12 ERs over 9 2/3 innings for 11.17 ERA). In what is likely Terry Collins' last game, I'll take the 1 1/2 runs and make the Mets a 6* play. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 134 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL will play a second straight game in London and the fans at Wembley Stadium are hoping to see a more competitive game than the Jags' surprising 44-7 rout of the Ravens last Sunday. The Saints opened their 2017 season by losing 29-19 at Minnesota in Week 1 and 36-20 at home vs. the Pats in Week 2. The Saints earned their first win of the season 34-13 in Carolina this past Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins make the trek "across the pond" at 1-1. The team's Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay was postponed due to Hurricane Irma and after a 19-17 Week 2 win over the Chargers in LA and a 20-6 loss on the road to the NY Jets last Sunday, the Dolphins will be on the road (and how!) for a third consecutive contest. New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees was 22-of-29 for 220 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's win and enters this contest completing 68.5 percent for 867 yards (Saints rank 5th in passing YPG) with six TDs and not a single INT in 111 attempts! Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor (77 yards on 3.3 YPC), as the running game has not been much of a help, averaging 96.7 YPG (18th). Defense has been a major concern in recent years for New Orleans and that's true again so far in 2017, as the Saints are allowing 26.0 PPG (30th) on 437.7 YPG (31st). Miami: The jury is still out on Jay Cutler, who is completing 64.9 percent but for only 450 yards (Miami ranks 21st in passing YPG) with two TDs and one INT. Cutler has gotten no help from a running game averaging 70.5 YPG (29th) and Miami enters averaging only 12.5 PPG (30th) on 280.5 YPG (28th). The defense has allowed 351.5 YPG (25th) but only 18.5 PPG (6th). The team will have to cut down on those yards, or that scoring average will almost surely rise. The pick: Brees is still on top of his game and Miami is allowing 8.6 yards per pass play, the worst mark in the NFL. The London folks may be in for quite a display from the veteran. Miami's offense is coming off an embarrassing performance in last week's 20-6 loss to the Jets, avoiding a shutout by scoring in garbage time on the game's final play. That last game was a disaster," Miami head coach Gase said. "That's obvious, and it's embarrassing." He may have seen nothing yet. 2017 could be a long year for the Dolphins. Yes, New Orleans has its defensive problems but does Miami have the players to take advantage? I think not! Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to two quality teams (Vikings and Pats) and the team has yet to commit a turnover. I'll throw in that the Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games and while maybe it means nothing, it's not a bad thing. Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State opened the season by beating Tulsa (59-24), South Alabama (44-7) and Pittsburgh (59-21) but was humbled at home last Saturday 44-31 by TCU, being done in by four turnovers. The Cowboys had fans dreaming of a Big 12 title and possible berth in the College Football Playoff but now Oklahoma State just looks to get back on track with a ninth straight win against Texas Tech when the Cowboys visit the 3-0 Red Raiders on Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech forced five turnovers in its 27-24 road win over Houston last week and are currently second in FBS in turnover margin (plus-2.3 per game). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but had two interceptions and lost a fumble, dashing his early-season push for the Heisman Trophy. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,533 yards with 13 touchdowns and three INTs. He has a deep receiving corps with four players with 14 or more catches, combining for 12 TD receptions. WR James Washington leads the way with 19 catches for 520 yards and four TDs, averaging 27.4 YPC. The running game averages 175.0 YOPG (5.0 YPC), led by the duo of Hill (352 yards on 5.7 YPC) and King (210 yards on 6.5 YPC). The defense has allowed 24.0 PPG (61st) on 366.0 YPG (53rd). Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are ninth in scoring (45.0 PPG) on 587.3 YPG (4th). QB Nic Shimonek is completing 73.6 percent for 1,248 yards with 11 TDs and one interception. WR Keke Coutee has 28 catches for 446 yards and four scores. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 26.3 PPG (73rd) on 407.3 YPG (85th). That may not seem like a big deal but note that Texas Tech allowed 43.5 PPG on 554 YPG last season. The pick: Texas Tech rallied from a second half, double-digit deficit last year, only to lose 45-44 on a missed extra point with 1:44 left in the game. The Cowboys come to Lubbock in an attempt to extend their eight-game winning streak in the series. Oklahoma State dropped nine places in this week's Associated Press poll (falling from No. 6 to No. 15), so this is a "MUST win." Considering that the Red Raiders are just 6-29 SU vs. ranked teams, the 8* play is on Oklahoma State. |
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09-30-17 | Ohio State -29.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 104 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes may never overcome that home loss to Oklahoma and qualify for the CFP, unless the team "runs the table." Ohio State is 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) and will visit High Point Solutions Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3, 0-1 Big Ten). These schools had never met until Rutgers joined the Big Ten and Ohio State has won by scores of 58-0 (2016), 49-7 (2015) and 56-17(2014). Safe to predict the Buckeyes won't lose here, either. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett was not up to the task vs. Oklahoma (zero passing or rushing TDs with one INT) but has completed 37-of-50 passes with seven scoring TDs and zero interceptions in victories over Army (38-7) and UNLV (54-21) the last two weeks. In last week's game vs. UNLV, Ohio State had seven different players catch a TD pass. Barrett is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 966 yards with 10 TDs and one interception, while adding rushing yards ( TDs). OSU has excellent offensively balance, passing for 319.2 YPG and 229.8 YPG on the ground. J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 520 yards (7.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. More good news is that sophomore RB Mike Weber has been cleared to play after being bothered by a hamstring injury that has limited him to seven carries after he rushed for 1,096 yards last year. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 20.0 PPG (38th) on 367.2 YPG (56th). Rutgers: Head coach Chris Ash was an Urban Meyer assistant and may be re-thinking his decision to take the Rutgers job. The Scarlet Knights were 2-10 last year (won home games over Howard and New Mexico) and have opened 1-3 in his second year (lone win over Morgan State at home!). The good news in New Jersey is that the Rutgers' D is allowing 18.2 PPG (28th) on 298.2 YPG (24th). That's down from 37.5 PPG allowed in 2016 on 451 YPG! Rutgers has QB woes for the last few seasons and the team's latest starter is Kyle Bolin, who is completing just 57.3 percent of his passes for 642 yards with three TDs and six INTs. The offense averages only 326.8 YPG (111th) and is a little better in scoring, averaging 27.2 PPG (83rd). The pick: I just noted that Rutgers is averaging 27.2 PPG but that's because the Scarlet Knights scored 65 points against Morgan State. In its other three games, Rutgers has averaged a paltry 14.7 PPG. How can this team 'hang' with Ohio State? Urban Meyer is in his sixth season at Ohio State and comes to Rutgers having gone 23-1 SU on the road. Yes, this is an imposing pointspread but as noted above, in three meetings the last three years, Ohio Stat has out-scored Rutgers by a combined 163-24. That's 54.3-to-8.0 PPG! Lay the points and make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14.5 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Northwestern Wildcats and 3-0 Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Both are members of the Big Ten West and this marks the conference opener for each school. The Wildcats own home wins over Nevada (31-20) and Bowling Green (49-7) but couldn't handle the Blue Devils at Durham, falling 41-17 to Duke (currently 4-0). Wisconsin opened its season with 59-10 and 31-14 home wins over Utah State and Florida Atlantic, respectively, before winning 40-6 at BYU. Both teams come into this contest off a bye. Wisconsin leads the all-time series 58-35-5 and note that the home team has won eight of the last 10, recently. Northwestern: The Wildcats are averaging 32.3 PPG (58th) on 459.0 YPG (45th). QB Clayton Thorson is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards with four TDs and three INTs. The Wildcats' ground game is averaging 160.3 YPG (74th), led by RB Justin Jackson. He's now a senior and entered his final season off three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (he's on the verge of breaking the school's rushing record). Jackson was held to 18 yards at Duke but topped 100 yards in Northwestern's two wins (248 yards with four TDs, overall). Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 22.7 PPG (52nd) on 410.3 YPG (90th). Wisconsin: The Badgers were ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and are currently ranked 10th. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 70 percent of his passes for 701 yards (Wisconsin averages 235.7 YPG through the air) with eight TDs and just one INT. He's greatly aided by a Wisconsin ground game averaging 275.3 YPG (12th), led by RB Jonathan Taylor (438 yards on 8.3 YPC with five TDs). On the other side of the ball, not much is different than from years past. Wisconsin currently checks in allowing just 10.0 PPG (5th) on 248.0 YPG (7th). The pick: This Wisconsin offense wasn't up to the task of winning at Durham against Duke. No way it wins here at Camp Randall. The Badgers defense is a 'horse of a different color,' coming off holding BYU to 192 total yards and it has yet to allow a SINGLE point in the second halves of its three games to-date! Wisconsin entered the 2017 season having gone 60-9 SU at home the previous 10 seasons (that's less than one loss per season). Don't expect a loss here either and if fact, lay the points and make the Badgers a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -7 v. Duke | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Hurricanes have two scheduled saffected by Hurrican Irma and enter this Saturday game playing for just the third time this year, instead of the fifth. No. 14 Miami is currently sitting at 2-0, following a 41-13 win over Bethune-Cookman (9/2), a canceled game against Arkansas State (9/9) a postponed game with Florida State (9/16) and a 52-30 victory over Toledo. Miami will travel to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham to face the 4-0 Duke Blue Devils, who are aiming for their first 5-0 start since the 1994 team opened 7-0. This marks the 15th meeting between the Hurricanes and Blue Devils since the series began in 1976, with Miami holding a 12-2 series advantage. Miami-Fl: The 'Canes have averaged 46.5 PPG (8th) on 571.0 YPG (6th) but of course, their two opponents have been Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. QB Brad Kaaya has moved on, replaced by Malik Rosier. He's completed 68.8% for 688 yards with six TDs and just one INT. RB Mark Walton has 353 rushing yards (204 on just 11 carries vs. Toledo) and is averaging a whopping 13.0 YPC with three TDs. Miami's D has yet to be tested but comes in allowing 21.5 PPG (47th). Duke: The Blue Devils have an offense capable of testing Miami's D. Duke comes in averaging 40.5 PPG (23rd) on 471.0 YPG (38th). QB Daniel Jones s completing 61.9% for 904 yards with five TDs and two INTs. He's also a running threat, gaining 141 yards with three TDs. The rushing attack averages 228.0 YPG (27th), led by the duo of Shaun Wilson (349 yards / 5.9 YPC) and Brittain Brown (35 yards / 6.7 YPC). Duke's defense owns impressive numbers, allowing 15.2 PPG (17th) on 271.8 YPG (16th), including just 75.5 YPG on the round (5th). The pick: Sure, Miami owns a 12-2 series lead but the Blue Devils will certainly remember the last time the Hurricanes visited Durham (in 2015), as Miami pulled out the 30-27 victory with a controversial last-gasp 91-yard kickoff return that featured eight laterals and four missed calls that resulted in suspensions for the ACC officiating crew. Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fl, behind 396 passing yards and four TD passes from Kaaya. Revenge is clearly with Duke but this is easily the Blue Devils' biggest test. Duke opened with three home games and had plenty against 1-3 North Carolina. Miami has a make-up game next Saturday with Florida State but a loss here makes that encounter significantly less important. Miami won't need any late-game heroics in this one. Make Miami an 8* play. |
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09-28-17 | Texas -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 57 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Longhorns and Iowa State Cyclones meet Thursday night on ESPN at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. It's the Big-12 opener for both teams, although the 2-1 team is Iowa State, not Texas. The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa on Sep 9 away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on Sept. 16. The Longhorns began the 2017 season ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but opened it with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland, before following with a 56-0 home victory over woeful San Jose State. Texas' best performance of the season came in a hard-fought OT loss at USC (currently ranked 5th). Texas defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and leads the all-time series 12-2, including going 5-1 in Ames Texas: Tom Herman was Iowa State's offensive coordinator from 2009-11 and helped guide the Cyclones to a pair of bowl games. He left there to be Urban Meyer's OC at Ohio State and then made a big 'splash' as Houston's head coach in 2015 and 2016, landing him the Texas job. Things have have not gone smoothly so far. It hasn't helped that sophomore QB Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two TDs and ran for another TD against Maryland, has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. However, he is expected to return here, although All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) is not around to block for him on an already thin OL. Sure, Texas ran for 406 yards against San Jose State but the Longhorns ran for only 98 yards (31 carries) against Maryland and had just 68 yards rushing on 35 attempts versus USC! The defense was awful vs. Maryland (allowed 51 points on 482 yards) but redeemed itself vs. USC. Which one shows up here? Iowa State: Junior QB Jacob Park is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 935 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. Iowa State ranks ranks 14th in the NCAA in passing (311.7 YPG) and Park now owns four 300-yard passing games in his six career starts. He has a terrific target in senior WR Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three TDs and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38). The running game averages 152.0 YPG, just 82nd in the nation. The defense is at best, mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (78th) on 402.0 YPG (80th). The pick: Iowa State has an offense which can produce, as noted by 'ringing up' 38 points in regulation against an Iowa team, which almost upset Penn State last Saturday, holding the Nittany Lions to 21 points! Then again, the Nittany Lions did 'run all over' the Hawkeyes, gaining 579 yards. It's true that Iowa State is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games but with Buechele returning at QB, the Texas offense should be up to the task. Texas fans finally got a glimpse of a better future when Tom Herman almost pulled an upset at USC with backup QB Ehlinger. Here, they get to see "the Full Monty!" Make Texas a 10* play. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: University of Phoenix Stadium will be the site of Week 3's Monday Night Football game on ESPN, as the 1-1 Cowboys travel to meet the 1-1 Cardinals. Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott has been mired in controversy as he awaits word on the stay of his six-game suspension stemming from domestic-abuse allegations, plus his effort (or lack thereof) was questioned inside his own locker room after the team's humbling 42-17 loss last Sunday in Denver. As for Arizona, the Cards escaped with a three-point OT win at Indy last Sunday and will play a game in their own stadium for the first time since August 19(preseason Week 2). These teams opened the 2017 preseason schedule in Canton, with the Cowboys winning 20-18. Dallas: Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett wasn't pleased with Elliott's hustle or competitiveness when the RB showed zero-to-little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD and one during which Elliott turned away from the play with his hand on his hips. Elliott had just rushing nine attempts against Denver (eight yards!) and that played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. Only Aaron Rodgers (92) has more pass attempts after Week 2 than Prescott, who has 89. The Cowboys are averaging 245.5 YPG through the air and just 84.5 YPG rushing. That's a far cry from the excellent balance the team had in 2016, going 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS (226.9 YPG passing and 149.8 YPG rushing, which ranked second in the NFL). Arizona: The Cards are also worried about their running game. The Cardinals lost star RB David Johnson to a left wrist injury in Week 1, then Kerwynn Williams was the starter against the Colts last week. However, after averaging just 64.0 YPG rushing in the first two weeks (to rank 30th of 32 teams), it appears Bruce Arians will turn to veteran Chris Johnson against the Cowboys. Carson Palmer was 19-of-36 passing with 332 yards, one TD and one INT last week, after throwing three INTs with a 53.1 QB rating in the loss at Detroit. The pick: The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries but it was their pride and ego that were wounded the most during the rout at the hands of the Broncos. However, Dallas looked pretty darn good against the Giants and I'm not about to 'cry Uncle,' just yet. That's especially true here against the Cards, who look like a shell of the team that went all the way to the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (2015). The Cards are very fortunate to be 1-1 and I'm not convinced they are any better than the 7-8-1 team of 2016. Arizona heads into this game just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games, including the postseason. Make Dallas a 10* play.
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans square off in Week 3 NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Both teams are 1-1 and the loser will not be a "happy camper." The Seahawks' offense has been "missing in action" after two weeks, averaging 10.5 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams on 268.5 YPG (27th). Tennessee appeared to find its offense in the second half of last week's 37-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars but now will be severely tested by on of the NFL's best defenses these last five-plus years in Seattle. Seattle: The Seahawks were held without a TD in Week 1 at Green Bay and then were able to generate just 13 points (one TD) against a San Francisco defense which just allowed 41 point to the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson passed for 198 yards and a TD on 23 of 39 passing, against the 49ers and rookie RB Chris Carson led Seattle’s ground game with 93 yards on 20 carries. As it has for some time now, Seattle's defense is off to a typically strong start, allowing 13.0 PPG (5th) on 309.0 YPG (13th). Tennessee: The Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders in Week 1 but I think most are now aware that the Raiders are a quality team. The Titans found their offense in the second half of last week's win at Jacksonville, scoring 31 points. QB Mariota finished with 215 yards (one TD / one INT). RB Derrick Henry led with 92 yards rushing (on just 14 carries) with one TD. The Titans defense recorded two sacks, two interceptions and forced two fumbles, while holding the Jags to just 310 yards of total offense. The pick: I like the Titans quite a bit but Tennessee is 7-22-2 ATS in its last 31 home games (5-9-1 as a home favorite since 2013). The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and Seattle is11-5-3 as a road underdog since 2011, including 2-0 in 2016. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The East Carolina Pirates have opened the season 0-3 and seek the team's first win of the new year Sunday against the 1-1 UConn Huskies at Rentschler Field in Storrs, Ct. ESPNU will televise this AAC matchup of teams each coming off 3-9 seasons. Both schools were scheduled to be off this weekend but the game was moved ahead in to accommodate UConn, which had its Sep. 9 game with USF postponed due to Hurricane Irma. These schools met last season in Greenville, with the Pirates rolling to a 41-3 victory.
UConn: The Huskies' offense is slightly better than ECU's, averaging 436.0 YPG (54th) but it is scoring only 22.5 PPG (105th), which is to say it' has underachieved. On the defensive side of the ball, UConn has allowed 536.5 YPG (125th) but a more modest 29.0 PPG (85th). QB Bryant Shirreffs is now a senior and is completing 69.2 percent of his passes but for only 351 yards (in two games) with three TDs and one interception. The UConn Huskies ground game is not all bad, averaging 183.5 yards YPG (54th). The pick: OK, the Pirates haven't won a road game since 2015 (0-7 SU & ATS) and the team enters this rare Sunday game on a 1-12 ATS run but UConn comes in on an 0-12 ATS run as a home favorite, last covering in that role in the team's 2012 season-opener over UMass. Make East Carolina |
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09-24-17 | Ravens -4 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-44 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's first "London game" of the 2017 season features the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens taking on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars "across the pond" at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday morning. This will be Jacksonville's fifth straight year playing a game in London but it is a first for Baltimore. The Ravens played the entire preseason without starting QB Joe Flacco but went 4-0, anyway. As Baltimore had insisted, Flacco was ready for Week 1 and while he's been mediocre at best, the Ravens are off to a 2-0 start with a 20-0 win at Cincy and 24-10 home win over the Browns. The Jags opened their 2017 season by upsetting the Texans 29-7 in Houston but then severely disappointed their home crowd by losing 37-16 to the Titans, last Sunday in Jacksonville. Baltimore: Flacco has passed for just 338 yards (Ravens rank 31st of 32 teams in passing yards), as the team's deep threats (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) have been non-existent thus far, combining for three catches for just 20 yards receiving. However, the running game is averaging 146.5 YPG (3rd). Once again, Baltimore is relying on its defense, as the Ravens have allowed just 5.0 PPG (2nd) on 303.5 YPG (10th). The Baltimore D has four INTs in each of of its first two games, along with two recovered fumbles plus eight sacks! Jacksonville: Rookie RB Leonard Fournettehad 100 yards rushing in his debut but was held to just 40 yards by the Titans. The Jags are counting on him, as his success is paramount to Doug Marrone's offensive designs as the Jaguars try to rein in the turnover-plagued Bortles. The much-maligned Bortles is completing only 56.4% for 348 yards (Jags rank 28th in passing yards) with two TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 72.4). In the Jags' Week 1 win, Bortles attempted a career-low 21 passes. "However, we can find ways to win, if it's throwing it 50 times or five times, I'm more than willing to do that and fine with it," Bortles said after that game. "It's not, 'I'm mad because we're not throwing the ball enough.' It's not that. I couldn't care less. Anyone believe him? Think that anyone in the organization has much faith in Bortles? The pick: This is the 21st regular-season meeting between the teams and the Jaguars surprisingly lead the series, 11-9 (note: the Ravens and Jaguars were former division rivals in the AFC Central until 2001). Series history means little in this one but as we saw in Week 2, but the fact Bortles reverted to a familiar form with two ill-timed picks and general ineffectiveness in that lopsided loss to the Titans, does. Anyone expect him to deal effectively with this 'nasty' Baltimore D (see above to be reminded)? Not I. Make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 104 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday at Spartan Stadium, the site of one of CFB's many "Game of the Century" contests through the years, back on November 19, 1966 (ended in one of CFB's most famous ties, 10-10). Both schools opened the 2016 season ranked, Michigan State at No. 12 and Notre Dame at No. 10. However, the Spartans finished 3-9 and Notre Dame just 4-8. Less was expected from these legendary programs here in 2017. Notre Dame has opened 2-1, losing only 20-19 to Georgia, which is currently ranked 11th. Michigan State is 2-0, winning home games against MAC schools Bowling Green (35-10) and Western Michigan (28-14). The Spartans had a bye last weekend and this home game against Notre dame represents the school's third home game in a season in which the Spartans open with four consecutive home contests (Iowa visits East Lansing, next Saturday). Notre Dame: Much was expected of new starting QB Brandon Wimbush. His passing numbers are underwhelming after three games (50.5% for 491 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs) but he's run for 314 yards (6.4 YPC) and six TDs. ND's rushing game has been spectacular, averaging 330.7 YPG to rank 5th in the nation (RB Josh Adams leads the way with 443 yards on 7.9 YPC with two TDs). Defensively, Notre Dame is allowing 18.7 PPG. Michigan State: QB Brian Lewerke is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 411 yards with four TDs and just one interception. Lewerke is also the team's leading rusher (150 yards on 8.8 YPC) for a running game which averages 255.5 YPG. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 12.0 PPG (12th) and the team's 203.5 YPG allowed ranks second in the entire nation. The question is, MSU's competition so far has not been the best. The pick: Michigan State ranks second among opponents in all-time victories (29) over Notre Dame, trailing only USC (37). With its stout defense, many feel like the Spartans as a home dog is the play. However, I differ. Notre Dame's rushing attack is dominant and its defense has looked way better than last year's unit, which allowed 27.8 PPG. Notre Dame has converted all of its red zone opportunities, tied with 19 other schools at 100%. However, no team has as had as many opportunities as The Irish, who are 19-for-19. Make Notre Dame a 10* play. |
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09-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. South Carolina -8 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Saturday at Columbia, South Carolina, as Louisiana Tech takes on South Carolina. The Bulldogs routed Nothwestern State 52-24 to open the season but then found themselves on the wrong side of a 57-21 score at home vs. Mississippi State in their second game (just ask LSU if Miss. St. is any good). South Carolina opened 2-0 in 2017 but will need to find a way to win without its top playmaker, something it couldn't do last Saturday. WR Deebo Samuel had five TDs in the team's first two games (both wins) and then had a 68-yard TD catch on the first play from scrimmage in last week's game vs. Kentucky. However, he suffered a broken left leg and was lost for the season, as South Carolina went on to lose 23-13. La. Tech: Head coach Skip Holtz has led the Bulldogs to three consecutive nine-win seasons, each ending in a bowl victory. This year's starting QB is J'Mar Smith, who's thrown for 722 yards, including three plays of 53 yards or longer, but has completed barely half of his passes (51.5%). Smith had 306 yards passing in the win over Western Ky, completing 22 of 39 (one TD and one INT). La. Tech averages 32.0 PPG but allows 34.3 per, ranking 108th in the nation. South Carolina: QB Jake Bentley threw for 304 yards and two TDs against Kentucky but he also was intercepted twice. The Gamecocks have averaged only 85.7 YPG on the ground (121st) and now that Samuels is out, South Carolina will need to find a way to perk up its offense. "I think we've got some capable guys," head coach Will Muschamp told the media on how he might replace Samuel. "Shi Smith is a freshman we are trying to train up. Bryan Edwards has been a dependable guy. Next man up has to be our mentality." Muschamp can rely on his solid defense, which has allowed 21.3 PPG. The pick: After getting smoked by Miss. State 57-21, La. Tech is eager to show it can compete with an SEC opponent. However, if only wishing could make it so. La. Tech is just 2-9 SU in non-conference away games under Holtz. Not enough points here to take the Bulldogs (a C-USA team) against an SEC opponent. Make South Carolina an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | NC State v. Florida State -11 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Florida State Seminoles opened their 2017 season against preseason No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta. FSU not only lost a game back on Sep. 2, it also lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois to a season-ending knee injury. To add insult to injury, the Seminoles have not played since that game, as the effects of Hurricane Irma have forced the Seminoles to cancel/postpone games against ULM (9/9) and Miami-Fl (9/16). This marks CFB's fourth full weekend and FSU will finally be playing its second game of the 2017 season, when it hosts 2-1 NC State. The Wolfpack opened with a 35-28 home to loss to South Carolina but then beat Marshall 37-20 and Furman 49-16. FSU won 24-20 at NC State last season, giving them eight wins over the last 10 meetings (FSU leads the series 25-11 all-time). NC State: QB Ryan Finley had a solid season in 2016 for NC State, throwing for 3,059 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs. He's completing 75.6% for 987 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs) after three games in 2017, as the Wolfpack are averaging 334.7 YPG through the air to rank 13th in the nation. The NC State defense was solid last season (allowed 22.8 PPG) and comes into this game allowing 23.7 PPG. Florida State: The Seminoles' offense couldn't dent Alabama's defense in their lone 2017 game, scoring just seven points on 250 total yards (just 40 yards rushing). However, the defense played extremely well, holding The Tide to just 269 yards. Florida State will turn the offense over to freshman James Blackman, who will be the first true freshman to start at QB for the Seminoles since 1985. The good news is, he's had some extra time to study the playbook and practice with the first team during the layoff. “He has presence and poise,” head coach Jimbo Fisher said. “I’ve always said the No. 1 thing (quarterbacks) have to have, barring anything, I always look at it very early on, I say the No. 1 thing is presence. … They just have presence. When they talk, there’s a natural command to what they do and how they carry themselves. And I think James does that." The pick: Still fuming from a 24-7 season-opening loss to Alabama on Sep. 2, then seeing its next two games get washed out because of Hurricane Irma, Florida State enters Saturday's contest having not played a game in three weeks. Florida State's 21-day stretch between games is tied for the third-longest layoff between regular-season games in the same season in program history. My bet says the NC State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay it with FSU and make them an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The 0-2 San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 LA Rams Thursday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday. The Rams routed the Colts 46-9 in Week 1 but then lost 27-20 to Washington in Week 2. The team will play its first road game of the season here, traveling on a short week, although the trip to Santa Clara is not much of a travel issue. As for the 49ers, they are 0-2 after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers in Week 1 and a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 2. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season and the 49ers off a 2-14 one, so it's fair to say both teams have this one 'circled' as a rare "winning opportunity." LA Rams: Jared Goff struggled when he played in 2016, after being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in April. Goff completed just 54.6% in his seven games with five TDs, seven INTs and five lost fumbles (he was 0-5 as a starter). He had a breakout game in Week 1 by completing 21 of 29 for 306 yards with one TD, no INTs and a 117.9 QB rating. However, he was more average against Washington, going 15 of 25 for 224 yards with one TD, one INT and an 86.1 rating. RB Todd Gurley had just 41 yards in Week 1 in the win but looked better with 88 yards (5.5 YPC) in the loss, plus he's caught eight passes for 104 yards. Goff's improved play certainly makes the Ram's a much superior offensive team, averaging 33.0 PPG (LA averaged NFL lows of 14.0 PPG and 262.7 YPG in 2016). The Rams D has allowed 18.0 PPG (11th) on 305.3 YPG (13th) through two games, after allowing 24.6 PPG on 337.0 YPG in 2016. San Francisco: The 49ers have a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new starting QB (Brian Hoyer) and so far, the offense has been pathetic. Hoyer has completed 62.9% and thrown for only 292 yards without a a TD pass (two INTs) and currently owns a 60.7 QB rating. RB Carlos Hyde has 169 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC but the team has averaged 6.0 PPG, amazingly ranking 31st of 32 teams (talk about a lack of scoring!). SF does rank dead-last (32nd) in total yards, at 232.5 YPG. Considering the team's woeful offensive performance, the defense has played well. San Francisco ranks 10th in both points allowed (17.5 per) on 299.5 YPG. The pick: I noted at the top that both teams have to feel like this is a winnable one. However, the 49ers have to realize just how important winning here, is. The 49ers play their next three games on the road, return home to play the Cowboys and then travel cross-country to play the Eagles. Lose here and an 0-8 start looks pretty feasible. San Francisco just dominated the Rams at this venue last year, winning 28-0 and then upset the Rams later in the Coliseum, 22-21. Make San Francisco an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Temple Owls will visit Tampa and Raymond James Stadium Thursday night on ESPN to take on the 3-0 South Florida Bulls, who are currently ranked No. 21 in the AP poll. The Bulls will have a short week for the second game in a row, having played Illinois last Friday night, when they pulled away to an easy 47-23 victory, with 680 yards of total offense. Temple's new head coach Geoff Collins knows what his team is in for, as on Monday he said, "They have tremendous athletes across the board -- a big, physical offensive line and a dynamic quarterback who can hurt you with his arm and hurt you with his legs. They're a complete offense." Temple: The Owls are coming off back-to-back 10-4 seasons but reaching double digit wins this year may be a stretch. Temple opened with the 2017 season with a 49-16 loss at Notre Dame, before beating Villanova and UMass (schools better-known for their basketball programs) by only a combined 11 points! QB Logan Marchi has taken over for the graduated Walker and has looked pretty good. He's thrown for 767 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. However, the running game, which averaged just over 175 YPG in 2016, has averaged a woeful 94.3 YPG (117th) on 2.9 YPC after three games (two coming against cupcakes 'Nova and UMass). Forget the team's defensive numbers against Villanova and U Mass and concentrate on the 49 points and 606 yards the Owls allowed at Notre Dame and one has to believe Temple is in deep trouble in this contest. USF: Quinton Flowers has yet to 'explode' after three games (678 passing yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 243 yards rushing and 2 TDs) but the key is he's got USF's offense clicking on all cylinders. USF averages 40.0 PPG on 522.3 YPG (15th), including 281.3 YPG rushing (13th). RBs Tice (256 yards & 4 TDs) and Johnson (215 yards) give the Bulls quite a solid duo to complement Flowers' rushing ability (note: he rushed for 1,530 yards in 2016 on 7.7 YPC and scored 18 TDs!). The Bulls' D has been more than "good enough," allowing 20.7 PPG (48th) on 323.3 YPG (42nd). The pick: The Bulls enter this game having scored 30-plus points in 20 straight games and just how will Temple's D (see Notre Dame stats above!) be able to keep USF in check on its home field? Making matters worse for Temple is that the Owls beat USF last season in Philly, 46-30. As the saying goes, "revenge is a dish best served cold." USF is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. Make the Bulls a 10* play. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Detroit Lions visit MetLife Stadium and the 0-1 New York Giants for MNF on ESPN. Matthew Stafford completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 292 yards with four TDs and just one INT in Detroit's 35-23 Week 1 home win over Arizona. As for the Giants, they look for a bounce back performance after losing 19-3 at the Dallas Cowboys on SNF in Week 1. Manning completed 76.3 percent of his passes for 220 yards but did not lead the Giants into the end zone, while tossing one INT and getting sacked three times. Detroit: The passing game graded out as an "A" in Week 1, with Golden Tate reeling in 10 catches for 107 yards, rookie Kenny Golladay grabbing four catches and making a favorable impression with a pair of fourth-quarter TD plus RB Theo Riddick also had six catches with a TD reception,. However, the rushing attack ran for just 82 yards (3.0 YPC) leaving head coach Jim Caldwell to say, "It needs work. We just got to keep working at it and (it's) not where we want it yet." The Lions' D was fine against the Cards, holding them to 308 yards (but 24 FDs) and 23 points, while forcing four TOs (three INTs). NY Giants: The offense was mostly revamped in the off-season with the additions of WR Brandon Marshall, TEs Rhett Ellison and Evan Engram, plus the promotion of Paul Perkins to starting RB. The mainstays are QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. OBJ sat out Week 1 and New York's offense couldn't get out of its own way. I noted Eli's numbers above and as a team, the Giants totaled a modest 233 yards on 13 FDs (4 of 12 on third-downs). Perkins ran for 16 yards (seven carries), as the team had just 35 yards rushing (2.9 YPC). The Giants' D, considering it got no relief from its offense, did well to hold the Cowboys to 19 points. The pick: Obviously, an OBJ return would be huge for the Giants but his status is iffy, as would be his contributions if he did play. The Lions didn't pull away from the Cards in Week 1 until the fourth quarter and I'm still not ready to trust that defense. I did allow 24 FDs but was 'saved' by forcing four TOs. However, the Lions' pass D allowed opposing QBs to complete a historic 72.7 percent of their pass attempts in 2016, while the defensehad just 14 takeaways, tying them for 28th (with the Jets). As for that Giants' D, it did its best last week vs. Dallas and let's not forget how good it was last year, when the Giants allowed only 17.8 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL) plus went from allowing an NFL-high 420.3 YPG in 2015, to allowing 339.7 YPG in 2016. Detroit is a different team away from its dome (12-20 SU the last four seasons) and I'm "all over" the Giants as a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Jets +14 v. Raiders | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Jets head to Oakland in Week 2 to take on the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum. Not much is expected from the Jets in 2017 and that's just what we all saw in Week 1. New York gained just 214 yards (11 FDs) in Buffalo, while the Bills gained 408 yards. The Jets allowed the Bills to rush for 190 yards (4.5 YPC) and were able to only run for 38 yards themselves (2.5 YPC). Maybe the Jest were lucky to lose by just nine points. In contrast, the Raiders impressed in their 26-16 Week 1 at Tennessee. QB Derek Carr, who signed a five-year, $125 million extension with the team this off-season, has clearly recovered nicely from the broken fibula is suffered in Week 16 last season. He completed 22 of 32 passes against the Titans for 262 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. Marshawn Lynch ran for 76 yards against the Titans in his first game following a one-year retirement. NY Jets: Looking for positives from Week 1, former Raider Josh McCown completed 26-of-39 passes for 187 yards and ran for the Jets' lone TD versus the Bills. His top target was Jermaine Kearse, who had seven catches for 59 yards in his debut with the club. However, RBs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell MUST do better. The good news is that they are very capable and have a history of being effective players. Maybe New York's best performances in Week 1 came from its kickers. Chandler Catanzaro converted a pair of long FGs (48 & 52 yards) plus had three kickoffs go for touchbacks. Punter Lachlan Edwards averaged 43.7 yards on six punts. Oakland: The Raiders' 12-4 record in 2016 ended 13 consecutive non-winning and playoff-less seasons for Oakland (going back to the 2002 season, when the Raiders lost to the Bucs in the Super Bowl). Expectations were high coming into 2017 and the team's Week 1 performance at Tennessee may have cured any doubters. Carr was excellent (see above), completing passes to eight different receivers, with Michael Crabtree making a team-high six catches for 83 yards. Speaking of special teams play, Oakland just may have found a suitable replacement for Sebastian Janikowski, who has been placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Giorgio Tavecchio, who was 9-for-11 on FG attempts during the preseason, converted all four of his attempts against Tennessee, including a pair from 52 yards out. His performance earned him the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honor. The pick: Oakland's Derek Carr has a high-quality WR duo in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree plus a good TE in Jared Cook. Lynch may have turned back the clock and will at worst, vastly improve the rushing game in 2017. As for Josh McCown, he no longer owns a legit deep threat, as the Jets could arguably own the worst offense in the NFL after discarding their top play-makers prior to the start of this season. All that said, aren't we asking an awful lot from this Oakland team? There was just one double-digit favorite in Week 1 (Steelers closed minus-10 at the Browns) and here in Week 2, Oakland (about a two-TD favorite over the Jets), is the lone double-digit favorite of Week 2. Note that the Steelers barely eked out a three-point win over the Browns in Week 1 and the next-highest favorite in Week 1 was the Pats. In case you have forgotten, the Pats were routed 42-27 at home vs. the Chiefs, as a nine-point choice. Take the huge points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 51 m | Show |
The set up: The Philadelphia Eagles will venture into Arrowhead Stadium for a Week 2 game with the Kansas City Chiefs. It's a 'family reunion' of sorts, as new Philly head coach Doug Pederson played for Andy Reid (current KC head coach) in Green Bay and Philadelphia, before joining his coaching staffs with the Eagles and Chiefs. Pederson was Reid’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City from 2013-15, so he has a great understanding of the team's offense. The Eagles won 30-17 at Washington last Sunday but no team's Week 1 win was more impressive than KC's season-opening win 42-27 at New England, as nine-point underdogs. Philadelphia: QB Carson Wentz had a strong opener, going 26-of-39 for 307 yards with two TDs and an interception. However, the Eagles will need more from the running game, as LeGarrette Blount finished with only 46 yards on 14 carries against Washington (Eagles ran for only 58 yards as a team on 2.4 YPC!). A juiced-up pass rush harried Washington's Kirk Cousins all game, accounting for four sacks. The defense forced four turnovers in Week 1, including one fumble recovery which was returned 20 yards for a TD. Kansas City: Andy Reid went against type in allowing Alex Smith to 'fire deep' against the Pats and it paid huge dividends. Smith completed 28 of 35 for 368 yards (4 TDs / 0 INTs / 148.6 QB rating) plus rookie RB Karrem Hunt ran for 148 yards and a TD (8.7 YPC) and caught five passes, including a 78-yard TD. WR Hill had seven catches for 133 yards, including a 75-yard TD. Then there was the KC defense which held Brady without a TD pass on 36 attempts (just 16 completions). The pick: Would it be possible for the Chiefs to match their Week 1 performance? I think not and that improved Philly defense (especially its ability to pressure the QB), may make it very difficult (if not impossible) for Alex Smith to repeat his Week 1 performance. Philly QB Wentz is playing with an upgraded roster on both sides of the ball and let's note that this second-year player is now a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in September games. Can you say upset? Make the Eagles an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney claims he loves playing in big games and his team's showdown against Louisville on Saturday night certainly qualifies. ABC will be on hand as current AP No. 3 Clemson (2-0) and the defending national champs, travel to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. to take on 2-0 Louisville, which is currently ranked 14th in the AP poll. Eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson almost single-handedly lifted Louisville to victory in last year's contest at Clemson, totaling 457 yards and accounting for four TDs in a game that wasn't decided until Louisville came up one yard shy of a first down at the Clemson 3-yard line in the final seconds (Clemson won 42-36). Clemson has won all three previous meetings between the two schools, although each has been decided by six points or less. Clemson: New Tiger QB Kelly Bryant has passed early tests (68.6% completions with one TD & one INT plus 136 yards rushing on 5.2 YPC with three TDs). However, after routing Kent State 56-3 (665 total yards), the Tigers gained just 281 yards in their 14-6 win over Auburn. So far, the key has been Clemson's defense. The Tigers' defensive front, anchored by All-America candidates Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence at tackle, plus Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell at end, may be the best in the country. Clemson had 11 sacks, one shy of the school record against Auburn last Saturday. The Tigers rank second nationally in total defense (118.5 YPG) and sacks and are in the top-10 in seven defensive categories. Clemson has not allowed a TD this season and held Auburn to 117 total yards (13 FDs), including 15 second-half yards! Amazingly, Clemson's allowing 4.5 PPG but that ranks just THIRD (?). Louisville: Jackson's performance last season in “Death Valley” set up his "Heisman-push" (295 YP / 162 YR / 3 total TDs). Only Archie Griffin has won two Heismans (back-to-back in 1974 and 1975) but Jackson is not about to relinquish his Heisman without a fight after 525 yards of total offense at North Carolina. He enters this game with 771 passing yards and a 5-0 ratio plus 239 rushing yards with three TDs after just two games. Jackson has became only the second player in FBS history to have at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in consecutive games. The pick: Clemson has won 10 consecutive games on opponents’ home fields but Louisville is still smarting from last year's loss in Death Valley. There is no doubt that Clemson's defense is special but it couldn't contain Jackson at home last year (see above). How can it do better here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville? "We've had three really good battles with them – had our opportunities and have come up short – so this is something that is really important to our players,” Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters. “First of all, we should have confidence that we're there and that we can play, but it is up to us to win the game.”I agree and will make Louisville my 10* CFB Game of the Year! |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Florida | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: SEC East rivals Tennessee and Florida square off in Gainesville at "The Swamp" on Saturday. The Vols come in 2-0 and ranked No. 23 in the latest AP poll, while the 0-1 Gators are still in the top-25, at No. 24. The Volunteers made a remarkable comeback vs. Ga. Tech on Labor Day evening in Atlanta, rallying from a two-TD deficit in the 4th quarter to send the game to OT. The Vols would win 42-41, when they squashed a Ga. Tech two-point try in the second OT. Win No. 2 came much easier, beating FCS Indiana State 42-7. The Gators canceled last Saturday's home game with Northern Colorado due to Hurricane Irma and could have really used the work. Florida opened its season with a marquee matchup against Michigan on September 2 in Arlington (Jerry's House) and were just awful. Michigan beat Florida 33-17 but the final is not the half of it! Both Florida TDs were scored on interceptions returned for a TD, meaning the Florida offense put just three points on the board. The Gators were held to 192 totals yards, gaining just 13 FDs (went 2 of 13 on 3rd down conversion attempts). The Volunteers come to Gainesville on Saturday after winning 38-28 at home last season, a victory which snapped an 11-game losing streak in the series. Tennessee: The Vols are 2-0 but there is plenty of room for improvement, head coach Butch Jones said. "We have a lot of work to do with this football team, and that starts with our overall physicality," Jones said. "I didn't think we played to the level of physicality that's up to our standard and expectations." Joshua Dobbs in now in the NFL and it looks as Jr. Quinten Dormady is emerging as the Vols' full-time QB over Jarrett Guarantano. Dormady enters the week with a passer rating of 143.7 to go along with 415 passing yards, four TDs and an interception. The Volunteers are averaging 42.0 PPG (27th) thanks not only to the offense, but to strong work on special teams and defense. Freshman Ty Chandler returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown last weekend, marking the team’s ninth punt- or kickoff-return TD since 2015. Florida: QB Feleipe Franks will start against Tennessee after an up-and-down debut against Michigan. The red-shirt freshman completed 5 of 9 passes for 75 yards and showed some scrambling ability before being pulled after losing a fumble while going for a first down in the third quarter. If he can't do the job, though, coach Jim McElwain could turn to Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire (9 of 17 for 106 yards in the opener as a replacement for Franks) or even part-time 2016 starter Luke Del Rio, possibly in a two-minute situation. Regardless of which QB takes the most snaps, he could sure use more help from the running game, which gained only 11 yards on 27 carries in the opening loss to Michigan. The pick: Sure, Florida is well-rested and anxious to redeem itself off that Michigan 'nightmare.' The Gators also have revenge from last year's 10-pont loss at Tennessee, which ended an 11-game winning streak in the series for Florida. However, the Gators are totally unsettled at QB and off the Michigan game, have little or no running game. Also, last year's win and cover by the home team (Tennessee), snapped a 6-0-1 ATS streak by the road team in this bitter rivalry. I want any points I can get. Make the Vols an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +14.5 v. Duke | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I wonder if Matt Rhule would like to reconsider taking the Baylor job and leaving Temple? Baylor has not only opened 0-2, the Bears have lost outright as a 33 1/2-point favorite against Liberty and then as a 12 1/2-point favorite against UT-San Antonio, both at home! Here, the Bears will take an eight-game regular season losing streak to Durham, North Carolina to face Duke. The Blue Devils took FCS foe North Carolina Central 'to the woodshed' 60-7 in their season-opener and then dismantled Northwestern 41-17 last week (out-gained the Wildcats 538-to191). This marks Duke's third straight home game and it's Homecoming! Baylor: The Bears won 10-plus games in four of five seasons from 2011 through 2015 and opened 2016 at 6-0. Baylor entered Game 7 of the season at No. 8 when it lost 35-34 at Texas. The Bears ended the regular season on a six-game slide but then upset Boise State 31-12 in the Cactus Bowl, as about a TD underdog. Matt Ruhle was terrific at Temple, going 10-4 in 2015 and 10-3 last year, before taking the Baylor job prior to Temple losing its bowl game. Baylor is trying to recover from the sexual assault scandal that rocked the university and resulted in the firing of former head coach Art Briles in May 2016. Rhule has completely junked the Art Briles offense and Arizona transfer QB Anu Solomon has struggled, completing 43.6% in the team's first two games. Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as Baylor's pass defense yielded only 155 yards passing to UT San Antonio, after surrendering an incredible 447 yards in the opener. Duke: The Blue Devils entered last season off four consecutive bowl appearances but stumbled to a 4-8 season. However, head coach David Cutcliffe's 10th season in Durham is off to a exciting start. Dual-threat QB Daniel Jones has completed 68.6% for 518 yards (4 TDs / 1 INT) and rushed for 127 yards (6.4 YPC) and three more TDs. Duke is averaging 50.5 PPG (10th) on 531.0 YPG (18th) plus a defense which allowed 28.2 PPG in 2016, has allowed 12.0 PPG (19th) on 174.5 YPG (7th). The pick: Heading into this game, there can be no doubt that we have two teams heading in opposite directions. Baylor has more issues than most people realized, while Duke is simply cruising. The Blue Devils are a splendid 18-2 in their last 20 regular season non-conference games (the most successful streak in program history) but it's just hard to get may head around the fact that Duke, DUKE, is a two-TD favorite over Baylor. Rhule announced during the week that Arizona graduate transfer Solomon will be replaced by sophomore Zach Smith against Duke. Smith started four games last season and completed 116-of-196 passes for 1,526 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Take the points and make Baylor an 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals each flopped badly at home in their respective 2017 season-openers. The Texans, as 5 1/2-point favorites over the Jags, lost 29-7 and the Bengals, as a three-point favorite over the Ravens, lost 20-0. The Texans gained just 203 total yards (the Jags' 10 sacks were a huge part of that!), while Cincy QB Andy Dalton threw four INTs (plus lost a fumble for five total TOs!), as the Bengals gained only 221 yards and got shut out at home for the first time since 2001. Houston: The Texans traded up in the first round of the 2017 Draft and selected Clemson QB Deshaun Watson 12th overall, but head coach Bill O'Brien stood firm on his commitment to fourth-year veteran Tom Savage as his starting signal-caller, citing both experience and familiarity with the offense as primary reasons behind that decision. However, Savage's "experience" resume stated that he had only played in five career games with just 92 passes attempts and (zero career TD passes! It was fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualified as an "interesting choice." Thirty minutes into the first game of the season, O'Brien flip-flopped, benching Savage at the half of the Texans' embarrassing 29-7 home loss. Savage was 7 of 13 for 62 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) and was sacked six times and the Texans trailed 19-0. O'Brien felt that the mobile Watson could effectively elude pressure and provide the Texans a sorely needed offensive spark. However, the Jaguars sacked Watson four times and he was just 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a TD and an INT. Houston's rushing attack mustered just 93 yards. Cincinnati: The Bengals managed a measly 221 total yards on 58 plays with Andy Dalton 'laying an egg.' It was a woeful performance by the vet, as he completed 16 of 31 for 170 yards with five turnovers (4 INTs). He posted a 28.4 QB rating, delivering his worst showing since Nov. 6, 2014, when he passed for 86 yards with three interceptions in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For all the promise assigned to rookie RB Joe Mixon, he produced just nine yards on eight carries in his debut. The Bengals' amassed only 77 yards rushing (3.5 YPC) as a team. The defense was fine, as Flacco completed just 9 of 17 for 121 yards (1 TD / 1 INT). Yes, the Ravens did rush for 157 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. The pick: Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton was the solid play of Cincinnati's defense. However, can one really trust Dalton to bounce back against a quality Houston defense? Remember, the Texans led the NFL in yards allowed last season (301.3 YPG), despite All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missing all but three games. Also, Cincy's running game needs to get straightened out. Deshaun Watson will be Houston's starter on Thursday and I expect him to really test that Cincy D. Also, let's not ignore that Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams (including the postseason) and held Cincinnati to 10 points (in 2016) and six points (in 2015) in wins these last two seasons. Make Houston a 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
\The set-up: The New Mexico Lobos take their 1-1 record to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho (home of the famous Blue Turf) to face the the 1-1 Boise State Broncos Thursday night in college football action on ESPN. New Mexico opened with a 38-14 home win over Abilene Christian but then lost 30-28 (again, at home) last Saturday to in-state rival New Mexico State. Boise State opened 2017 with a less-than-impressive 24-13 home win over Troy and then last Saturday night at Washington State, lost 47-44 in a three-OT thriller. What a contrast in both of last week's results. New Mexico trailed 30-5 into the 4th-quarter last week and its 23-point final period left them two points shy, when a two-point try failed. As for Boise, the Broncos held a 21-point lead midway through the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto that lead after the Cougars tied the game at 31 with just 1:44 left in regulation. Boise State then lost in three OTs. New Mexico: The Lobos made a strong comeback but came up just short at NMSU. QB Lamar Jordan threw for a career-high 213 yards in the team's season-opening win and while no player ran for more than 65 yards, the Lobos ran for 259. However, against NMSU, Jordan was benched, as Tevaka Tuioti completed 10 of 19 passes for 151 yards and two TDs, while leading a comeback that just fell short. Jordan's starting job might be in jeopardy. Defensively, New Mexico is holding its opponents to an average of 22.0 PPG, not bad for a unit which allowed 31.5 PPG last year. However, the Lobos allowed Boise State QB Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 loss in 2016. Boise State: Like New Mexico, Boise State turned to its backup QB last weekend. Montell Cozart went 12-20 with 161 yards passing, two TDs plus added 72 yards and a TD on the ground, after starting QB Brett Rypien left the game early with an undisclosed injury. Although Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore, he was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He left with an early injury last week, after completing 7 of 8 passes for 76 yards. Boise State's defense allowed 433 passing yards against Washington State but only 22 rushing yards, on 27 attempts. The pick: Brett Rypien is likely out for this game as he recovers from a head injury, so all eyes will be on Montell Cozart to take care of the ball against an opportunistic Lobos defense (Broncos got in trouble last week when the Cougars returned a fumble and an interception for TDs). The last time the Lobos came to Boise in 2015, New Mexico (a 31-point underdog) won 31-24 over a then 7-2 Broncos team. The Broncos are not the 10-3 team they were in 2016. Note that Boise Stae was 0-6 ATS at home in 2016 and barely covered against Troy as a 10 1/2-point choice in an 11-point win to open 2017. Take the points and make New Mexico a 10* play. |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL serves up a MNF doubleheader with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Minnesota in the first half. One can't ignore the irony, as after serving as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, Adrian Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night. The 2012 NFL MVP hopes to show his-former team that he still has plenty left in the tank. "Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." New Orleans: The Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009 and through 2013, made the playoffs in four of five years. However, last year's 7-9 season marked the third straight year New Orleans has gone exactly 7-9, naturally missing the playoffs each time. The Saints finished the preseason with a 2-2 record and opens 2017 with Drew Brees at QB for another season. Brees put up yet another 5,000 yard season, throwing for 5,208 yards, 37 TDs and 15 INTs. WR Brandin Cook is now in New England but Michael Thomas was terrific in his rookie season of 2016 (will hope to replicate the success from his rookie season in 2016 (92 catches for 1137 yards with 9 TDs). Ted Ginn Jr. joins the fray to add a speed threat for the Saints on the outside (also adds as a special-teamer). We know this, that like Brady, Brees has "made do" with whomever lines up as his pass-catchers over his career. The "unknown" is, where will Adrian Peterson fit in the offense? Many expect Mark Ingram to lead the ground game for the Saints heading into the season, after coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), yards from scrimmage (1,362) and total TDs (10). New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons, including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016 at 28.4. Enough said. Minnesota: The Vikings made the postseason in 2015 (can anyone forget their hard-breaking loss to Seattle in that one?), although that was the team's lone winning season from from 2013 through 2016 (went 8-8 last year). Mike Zimmer had been a preseason 'monster,' going 12-1 in his first three seasons as Minnesota's head coach but this year's team went 2-2 this preseason. Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season (71.6%), due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota hopes it has addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the off-season (TBD). However, Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense which ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9 per). The Vikings return nearly every starter. The pick: The Vikings shocked everyone by opening 5-0 SU & ATS in 2016 but a Week 6 bye seemingly derailed their season. After returning, Minnesota finished 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. I, for one, believe the team's 5-0 start was a 'mirage' and the rest of Minnesota's season is what we will see more of in 2017. Historically, the Saints have been a great home team but a poor road one. However, that was surely NOT the case in 2016, as the Saints were a highly-profitable 7-1 ATS on the road, including 6-1 as a road dog (note: Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games). Is this strictly an offense vs. defense matchup? Not so fast. The New Orleans' defense made some good additions and played with improved resolve in the preseason. Take the points and make the Saints a 10* play. |
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09-10-17 | Colts +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 9-46 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams will be kicking off their NFL season at LA's Memorial Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. The Colts lost their first two preseason games against the Lions (24-10) and Cowboys (24-19), but won the final two against the Steelers (19-15) and Bengals (7-6). Indy is off back-to-back 8-8 seasons, both affected by Andrew Luck's injury woes. The Rams' return to LA didn't go well in 2016, as they lost 11 of their last 12 games to finish 4-12. The Rams have now missed the playoffs for 12 straight years and recorded 13 straight non-winning seasons (8-8 in both 2006 and 2004). The Rams won their first two preseason games, 13-10 over the Cowboys and 24-21 over the Raiders but then dropped their last two, 21-19 versus the Chargers and 24-10 in Green Bay. Indianapolis: The Colts will be without star QB Andrew Luck against the Rams. Scott Tolzien will make his fourth career start in place of Luck. Tolzien's main target will be T.Y. Hilton, who led the NFL last year with 1,448 receiving yards and is one of four players in league history with at least 850 yards and five touchdown catches in each of his first five seasons. Frank Gore rushed for 1,025 yards last season, becoming the first Indianapolis running back to reach the 1,000-yard plateau since Joseph Addai accomplished the feat in 2007. Gore is looking to become the fifth player in NFL history to hit the mark in 10 different campaigns. LA Rams: New head coach Sean McVay will step in and look to reverse what's been a losing situation for the Rams. It doesn't help that Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (the team's top defensive player) is expected to miss Week 1 as he continues to hold out for a new contract. Los Angeles' defense ranked ninth in the league last season but figures to struggle without Donald - something new coordinator Wade Phillips will attempt to avoid. RB Todd Gurley had 1,212 yards from scrimmage in 2016, marking the second straight season he has registered at least 1,200. WR Austin is a triple threat, after a season in which he had 52 catches for 509 yards (3 TDs), gained 364 yards on 44 punt returns and added 159 yards and a score on 28 rushes. Last year's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff, opens the season as the starter (54.6% with 5-7 ratio & 63.6 QB rating in 2016). The pick: The Colts' D is among the bottom-half of all defenses but the Rams owned the NFL's worst offense in 2016, averaging league-lows in both points (14.0) and yards (262.7). The jury is still out on Goff and he will take the field Sunday, 0-7 as an NFL starter. In losing 11 of their last 12 games in 2016, the Rams went 1-10-1 ATS in those contests. After a 9-3 Week 2 shocker over Seattle, the Rams lost their final seven home games, going 0-6-1 ATS. No way Rams should be laying points. Make Indy an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars v. Texans -4 | Top | 29-7 | Loss | -110 | 2858 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans are off back-to-back playoff appearances, including the franchise's first-playoff win last year. Even though Houston has made a postseason Jacksonville: Yes, the Jags have a string of six consecutive losing seasons but the team is far from pessimistic about 2017. The defense ranked sixth in yards allowed in 2016 (321.7 YPG) but gave up 25.0 PPG due to poor offensive production and a minus-16 TO ratio (third-worst in the NFL). The addition of RB Leonard Fournette and WR Dede Westbrook in the draft is good news but the QB position is, to say the least, iffy. Jacksonville needs solid QB play to take the next step but after a huge drop-off in his 2016 performance (off a promising 2015 one), Bortles didn't showcase that improvement in the preseason. With a chance to move ahead of Bortles in the preseason, veteran Chad Henne failed to do so. Houston: The Texans traded embattled QB Brock Osweiler before the draft, then took Clemson's Deshaun Watson with the 12th overall pick. However, Tom Savage will get the start at QB. He has just two starts under his belt, both coming last season when starter Brock Osweiler proved too ineffective to maintain the charade of his reliability and trust. Savage has only played in five career games and attempted just 92 passes (zero career TD passes!) It's fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualifies as an "interesting choice." All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missed all but three games last season after undergoing two back operations but Houston still led the NFL in yards allowed (301.3 YPG). Think his return will hurt? The pick: Doug Marrone, who was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills and served as interim coach for the final two games last season for Jacksonville, is the Jaguars' fifth head coach. I have to wonder what he really offers and will Bortles be able to focus on his play, while blocking out that noise of disappointment from fans? Houston has won six straight in the series, meaning Bortles has yet to beat this Romeo Crennel-led defense (note: Jags are just 2-22 on the road the last three seasons, overall!). Bortles has just six TD passes vs. eight picks in those games. I'd rather see Clemson rookie Deshaun Watson at QB but for this matchup with Jacksonville, Savage appears to be a serviceable option. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jets +7 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Loss | -105 | 219 h 22 m | Show |
NY Jets: This team has gotten rid of most of its offensive veterans and then traded its star player on defense, Sheldon Richardson, just last week to the Seahawks. The 38-year-old Josh McCown played fairly well in the second half of last season with the Cleveland Browns and becomes the Jets' starting QB. However, he did not epect to have much help from his receiving corps, and that was before Quincy Enunwa was lost to a season-ending neck injury in the off-season. Aging running back Matt Forte and all-purpose threat Bilal Powell are the team's top play-makers. All-in-all, New York's defense hung in there last year, allowing 342.4 YPG to rank 11th in total D. Buffalo: First-year head coach Sean McDermott said he intends to lean heavily on dual-threat running back LeSean McCoy (1,267 rush yards & 13 TDs plus 50 receptions last season). That would make sense and he's also happy to see that Tyrod Taylor cleared concussion protocol just in time to get the nod at QB. Taylor completed 61.7% for 3023 yards last season plus ran for 580 (6.1 YPC) and six more TDs. Rex Ryan was supposed to be a defensive gluru but Buffao's defense ranked behind that of New York's last season, allowing 357.0 YPG (19th). The pick: Due to the lack of offensive weapons on both sides, this game looks to be a low-scoring affair and that favors the underdog Jets. Let's also not forget that the Jets beat the Bills in both of last year's meetings, 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday night game at home and then 31-10 up in Buffalo in Week 17. Grab the points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Boise State +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 44-47 | Win | 100 | 82 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Boise State Broncos will travel to Marin Stadium in Pullman, Washington to take on the 20th-ranked 1-0 Washington State Cougars this Saturday night. Washington State opened 24th in AP's preseason poll, just the third time in school-history that the Cougars were a top-25 team in the preseason. The team's 31-0 win over Montana State last Saturday marked the school's first season-opening win since Mike Leach took over in 2012 and the Cougars moved up to No. 20. Boise State is off a 10-3 season in 2016, one which included a 31-28 home win over Washington State. The Cougars rallied from 17 points down in the third quarter in that one and QB Luke Falk, who threw for 480 yards, had a last-second heave batted down. Boise State escaped with its 34th consecutive home win against a non-conference opponent at the time. Boise State: The Broncos were unimpressive in last week's 24-13 at home win over Troy. QB Brett Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore. He was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He was sacked four times and threw an interception that was returned for a TD. In fact, backup QB Montell Cozart, a graduate transfer from Kansas, led the Broncos to both of their offensive TDs (he was 6 of 9 for 50 yards with one TD pass and 0 INTs plus had 36 rush yards). Boise State has had solid defenses through most of the team's recent outstanding successes and at least against Troy, looked good, holding the Trojans to 215 yards and 11 FDs. Washington State: QBs like Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Okla), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and JT Barrett (Ohio St) all get more Heisman hype but WSU's Luke Falk may be the best QB in college football. If that's not true, he may at worst, have the best numbers. He completed his first 20 passes last week and finished 33 of 39 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. I won't bore you. Check out his career stats. He'll finish his career among the very best in all of CFB history. Leach's first five defenses at Washington State have allowed 33.7 PPG, 32.5 PPG, 38.6 PPG, 27.7 PPG and 26.4 PPG. It's been a slight improvement these last two seasons and nine starters return. It's hard to judge after a home win over Montana State but the Cougars did allow just 143 yards, seven FDs and allowied Montana State to convert just 1 of 11 third downs. The pick: Washington State is playing with a big revenge motive plus some say that there is a QB controversy brewing at Boise after HC Bryan Harsin yanked starter Rypien in favor of backup Cozart, However, Harsin reiterated earlier this week that Rypien's status as the starter has not changed. I don't see how one can trust Washington State as this much of a favorite over a Boise Stae team that hasn't been an underdog since meeting Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2014 season. BTW,...Boise State (+3) won that game, 38-30. Take the points and make Boise State an 8* play. |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 14 Stanford returns from a 62-7 rout of Rice (Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia) to play No. 6 USC this Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford dominated Rice on both sides of the football and had no trouble securing the victory after taking a 41-0 lead at halftime. The 4th-ranked Trojans had all they could handle against Western Michigan last Saturday but was able to pull away. USC found themselves in a battle as the game was tied at 21 all at the end of the 3rd quarter but a 14-point scoring outburst over a 36 second span late in the 4th quarter led to a 49-21 win. Stanford: The Cardinal out-gained Rice 656-241 in total yards. RB Bryce Love had 180 rushing yards and a TD on just 13 carries (13.8 YPC) plus fellow RB Scarlett had 59 yards (7.4 TPC) plus three TDs. Stanford has to be very encouraged by the play of QB Keller Chryst, who was injured throughout spring practice. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 253 yards and 2 TDs. Chryst took over for Ryan Burns last year in late October and led Stanford to six straight wins, while throwing 10 TDs and just one INT. Stanford ranked 18th in scoring defense last year (20.4 PPG) and should once again be one of the better defenses in the country led by secondary of Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks. The Cardinal held Rice, which averaged 215 YPG passing in 2016, to just 95 passing yards. USC: Heisman Trophy candidate QB Sam Darnold threw for 289 yards on 23 of 33 but did not throw a TD pass and was intercepted twice. RB Ronald Jones II ran for 159 yards and three TDs, as the Trojans did present a balanced offense (289 passing yards and 232 rushing yards). The Trojans allowed 24.2 PPG last year (38th) but despite returning seven starters in 2017, allowed 31 points to Western Michigan. The pick: This is a possible preview of the 2017 Pac-12 title game. Stanford won three conference championships from 2012 to 2015 and last year 's 10-3 record marked Stanford's sixth season with 10-plus victories since 2010. USC entered 2017 as the Pac-12 favorite and Darnold as a Heisman-favorite. USC, after Darnold took over at QB, won its final nine games, capped by a thrilling 52-49 win over Penn St. in the Rose Bowl. This rivalry changed dramatically back in 2007, when Stanford, coached by Jim Harbaugh and a 41-point underdog at USC, pulled the shocking 24-23 upset. Stanford is 8-3 SU against USC since then, including three straight wins. However, USC's "close call" last week sets up as the perfect motivator for USC, which comes into this game having won 10 straight at home. This one will "make or break" USC's season. My bet says make USC a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Iowa -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: In-state bragging rights are at stake as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit rival Iowa State in Ames for the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy series. Both teams are coming off wins in the opening weekend, with Iowa man-handling the Wyoming Cowboys and potential NFL first-round draft pick QB Josh Allen in a 24-3 defeat in Iowa City, while Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 42-24, although it wasn't as easy convincing as the final score would indicate. This will be the 65th meeting in the series, with Iowa holding a 42-22 all-time advantage. The Hawkeyes are 18-8 all-time in games played in Ames, including winning two straight at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa: The Hawkeyes won their first game on defense, holding a Wyoming team which averaged 35.9 PPG on 435 YPG to three points and 233 total yards. QB Allen completed 23 of 40 for just 174 yards with two INTs. Iowa QB Stanley was only 8 of 15 for 125 yards but threw three TDs, RB Wadley ran for 116 yards. Iowa State: Iowa State fell behind 7-0 in the 1st quarter against NIU but then twice intercepted Panther QB Dunne and returned each for TDs. Take away those two picks and the game was pretty even. Iowa State QB Jacob Park completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 271 yards with two TDs and one INT in last week's win. The running game had just 134 yards and the defense allowed 24 points on 378 yards (21 FDs). The pick: Iowa has won its last two visits to Ames and last year in Iowa City, dominated Iowa State in a 42-3 win. The 'gap' between the two schools has not changed that dramatically since then. The Hawkeyes' D is the difference in this one with a modest pointspread. Make Iowa an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 155 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots open up the 2017 NFL season Thursday at Gillette Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday night on NBC. The Pats were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this preseason plus saw Julian Edelman go down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs, coming off a 12-4 record in 2016 (won AFC West), were 2-2 SU & ATS this preseason. Kansas City: Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in KC (arrived in 2013), winning 11, 11 and 12 games in his postseason years, while missing in 2014 at 9-7. The offense will look similar to last year's unit with Alex Smith at QB (1st-round pick Pat Mahomes II is in the wings) plus WR Tyreek Hill doing a little bit of everything and TE Travis Kelce continuing to prove he's one of the best at his position in the NFL. RB Spencer Ware may be lost for the season (injured in Week 3 of the preseason) but a combination of Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller may work. The Chiefs own one of the best secondary’s in the league and in Reid's four season has allowed 19.1, 17.6, 17.9 and 19.4 PPG. New England: Sure, Edelman's loss hurts but hasn't Tom Brady consistently been great under almost all circumstances? The addition of deep-threat WR Brandin Cooks from the Saints plus a now-healthy Gronk will surely give him ample targets. Defensively, the Patriots allowed a league-low 250 points last year (15.6 per) and have three all-pros from a year ago in Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Dont'a Hightower. The pick: The Pats, including the postseason, were 16-3 ATS last season and enter 2017 having lost only four regular season home games since the 2014 season. However, the Chiefs have gone 12-7 ATS as underdogs under Reid plus open the 2017 on a six-game road winning streak from 2016. Take the points and make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the 2017 season 2-11 and by the end of April, sat at 8-17. Toronto has never recovered from its poor start. The team which has appeared in each of the last two ALCS matchups beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Boston on Monday but through Labor Day, the Blue Jays are 64-74 (that's 56-57 since May 1). Toronto has fallen 13 games back in the AL East and while the deficit is about half of that in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Twins), the Jays would have to first climb over SIX teams before challenging Minnesota for that second wild card spot. Boston's loss was its eighth time in 12 contests and saw the team's lead in the American League East shrink to 2 1/2 games over the Yankees, who just took three of four from the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-8 & 5.23 ERA) will start for Toronto and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5 & 4.40 ERA) for Boston. Estrada has hardly been sharp in his last two starts (nine ERs allowed on 15 hits over 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA) but with the benefit of 21 runs of support, he's won them both to reach 7-8 on the season. He does own 156 strikeouts over 156 1/3 innings but he's also surrendered 26 homers in his 28 starts. Estrada is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 4-6). Rodriguez took the loss in each of his last two starts (allowed five runs in both outings) and is win-less in his last 10 outings with four defeats during that stretch (team is 3-7). Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / teams are 1-5) against Toronto. The pick: Toronto has all but been relegated to playing the spoiler role in September but that's just what the Jays did on Labor Day with 14 hits, including four HRs. Most of Boston’s problems have been on the mound in its current rough patch, as it has surrendered at least five runs in eight of the team's last 12 contests. Anyone truly expect Rodriguez to turn that roaund with his and 10 ERs allowed on 17 hits (three HRs) over 11 2/3 innings of his last two starts (7.71 ERA)? Note that Estrada has faced Boston twice in 2017 and while he's left with two no-decisions, he also owns a 1.74 ERA in those two starts. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA was ranked 16th in the 2016 preseason poll and opened its season at College Station with a game against unranked Texas A&M. The Aggies came away with a 31-24 upset in OT (the Bruins were favored by 3 1/2 points), a win which jump-started A&M's season. Texas A&M would open 6-0, rising to No. 6 in the AP poll before losing 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama. A&M's season unraveled from there, finishing 8-5 after a 33-28 Texas Bowl loss to Kansas State. UCLA never recovered from its season-opening loss to A&M. Things went from bad to worse when starting QB Josh Rosen suffered shoulder and leg injuries at Arizona State in a 23-20 loss. He never returned to the field of play and UCLA would finish 4-8, its first losing season under Jim More (he had led UCLA to a 37-16 record from 2012-1015). UCLA and Texas A&M meet in a season opener for the second consecutive season on Sunday, this time at the Rose Bowl. Neither team is ranked and both will be looking for strong starts after poor finishes last season (the Aggies lost four of their final five games, while the Bruins dropped six of their last seven). Texas A&M: Former Aggies QB Trevor Knight is now trying to claim a roster spot with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals and the Aggies have yet to name a starting QB as Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel, and Kellen Mond have continued to battle to earn the starting nod. A bigger loss is DE Myles Garrett, who was the NFL's overall No. 1 draft pick in April (Browns). He was a huge part in Rosen being pressure all game last season (Rosen was sacked five times and threw three INTs). Two key offensive performers do return, sophomore RB Trayveon Williams (1,057 yards 6.8 YPC and eight TDs) plus WR Christian Kirk for his junior year. He caught 83 passes last season (nine TDs), after making 80 receptions as a freshman. The defense returns seven starters but obviously can't replace Garrett. UCLA: Naturally, the return of Rosen is a key for the Bruins. Expect him to be eager to play well after last year's injuries preventing him from improving on his 3,670-yard, 23-TD effort as a freshman (he garnered Heisman Trophy conversation at this time last year). A MUST for UCLA will be improving a rushing attack which averaged a pathetic 84.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC to rank 127th in the nation. In Mora's first four years in LA, his Bruin teams had averaged about 194 YPG on the ground.. The pick: It would be easy to say UCLA here, based strictly on the revenge motive. However, Mora replaced some of his top offensive coaches after last year's disappointing campaign but lo and behold, Noel Mazzone (former OC at UCLA) and former backup QB Jerry Neuheisel, are both now employed by A&M. Kevin Sumlin opens his sixth season at A&M and he owns quite a record against non-SEC teams in his tenure, going 18-2 SU. I'll take any points available and make A&M a 10* play. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -135 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: It's safe to say that Saturday's showdown between preseason No. 3 Florida State and No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta (at Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium) is the marquee matchup of the opening week of CFB 2017. To say the least, this is a special game, as it marks just the fourth-ever opener all-time of top-five opponents and the first-ever between top-three opponents. Alabama lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second TD in the College Football Playoff title game last January, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season and a second straight national championship. The Florida State Seminoles finished 10-3 last season, capped by an impressive 33-32 victory over Michigan in the Orange Bowl as a seven-point TD.
Florida State: The Seminoles will not have RB Dalvin Cook, who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. However, QB Deondre Francois is back, after throwing for 3,350 yards and 20 TDs as a red-shirt freshman. Replacing Cook (FSU's all-time leading rusher) will not be easy but junior Jacques Patrick and freshman Cam Akers are talented. However, the OL needs to improve over last year’s bunch is FSU wants to be in the national title discussion. FSU's defense allowed 25.0 PPG last season, just the second time in the last seven years that an FSU defense had allowed more than 20 points. The good news is that nine regulars return on defense plus will have star safety Derwin James back at full strength after he played just two games in 2016 because of a knee injury. Alabama: The superlatives are endless when discussing the Crimson Tide, as Saban's team seeks its fifth national title in nine seasons. Alabama lost 11 players to the NFL draft. Jalen Hurts returns and is the first Tide QB to return since AJ McCarron in 2013. He accounted for 36 TDs last season, passing for 2,780 yards and rushing for 954. RBs Damien Harris (1,007 yards) and Bo Scarbrough (954 yards) both return but TE Howard and WR Stewart are both gone. The OL figures to be just as good in 2017. Sure the defense has lost seven starters to the NFL Draft (three in the first round) but no one doubts that the Tide will once again feature one of the nation's best defense units. The pick: The College Football Playoff will be decided this season in Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium and it seems only fitting that the first college game at the $1.5 billion replacement for the Georgia Dome will likely help determine who is playing on Jan. 8. I won't ignore the fact that Alabama has won by 10 points or more in 40 of its last 45 regular season games but....These are the two winningest college programs since 2010 and FSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons. Make FSU an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State v. Illinois -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 116 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ball State Cardinals will visit Memorial Stadium in Champaign-Urbana to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois in Saturday college football action. The Illini are coming off a 3-9 season and last finished with a winning year back in 2011 (7-6). Ball State is off a 4-8 season and has won just 12 combined games the last three seasons, after going to back-to-back bowl games in 2012 (10-3) and 2013 (9-4). The two schools have met just once before, back in 2007 with Illinois winning 28-17 at home. Ball State: The Cardinals return eight starters, although Jack Milas is replacing Riley Neal as the starting QB. Milas has 314 career pass attempts but the bulk of those reps came during the 2014 season, as he attempted only 38 passes in 2016 ((Neal attempted 394 in 2016 but had just 13 TDs and 12 INTs). While Milas gets back in the swing of things, he can rely on RB James Gilbert, who had 1,220 yards last season (5.3 YPC) and 12 TDs. The defense has just four returning starters but maybe that's a good thing, after allowing 35.8 and 30.1 PPG the last two seasons. Illinois: Lovie's Smith first season at Illinois hardly went well, as the Illini were 3-9 (5-7 ATS) and just 2-7 in Big Ten play. There was a QB 'battle' in the spring and Smith has named inexperienced junior Chayce Crouch the starting QB. This year's offense can't be as bad as last year's, which averaged a woeful 19.7 PPG, getting held to 10 or less points four times last year. Crouch is more of a dual-threat and RB Kendrick Foster returns after rushing for 720 yards (5.7 YPC) and seven TDs. More will be expected from WRs Malik Turner and Sam Mays (especially Turner, who caught 46 balls with six TDs). Lovie must improve his defense, as the team allowed 31.9 PPG in Smith's first season, more than a TD higher than the 2015 unit did (23.9). The pick: This line opened has high as minus-11 in some places but it's down to about a TD as of Friday afternoon. Not sure what the attraction of Ball State is, as the Cardinals are on a 3-18 SU run in true road openers. What's more, Ball State is 3-26-1 SU vs. current Big Ten teams with all three of those wins coming against Indiana (how the little school from Muncie, Indian has loved upsetting the boys from Bloomington!). Meanwhile, Lovie needs a win here, as high-scoring and dangerous Western Ky is up next, before a road game at ranked USF. Note that Indiana has won 19 straight home openers and the average margin of victory has been almost four TDs (26 points)! Ball State is a team the Illini can handle. Make Illinois an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Huskies will make the long cross-country trip to the East Coast on Friday night, where they will take on Rutgers in New Brunswick. Chris Peterson 'hit gold' in his third season at Seattle, leading the Huskies into the CFP, before they lost 24-7 to Alabama. Washington would finish 12-2 and has opened the 2017 season ranked No. 8 in the AP's preseason poll. Chris Ash, a key assistant under Urban Meyer at Ohio State, knew taking the Rutgers job wouldn’t be a 'walk in the park' but it's doubtful he anticipated the bottom falling out to the extent it did last season. Rutgers 2016 season opened with a 48-13 loss at Washington (Huskies led 48-3 into the fourth quarter) and after two home wins over Howard and New Mexico, Rutgers would go on to lose all nine games in Big Ten play to finish 2-10. I'm not sure Ash and Rutgers are all too happy to see Washington again, in the team's 2017 opener, even if it is in New Brunswick. Washington: The Huskies' defense allowed just 17.7 PPG in 2016 (on 316.1 YPG) but lost five starters to the NFL. CBs Kevin King (Packers) and Sidney Jones (Eagles) plus S Budda Baker (Cardinals) all went in the top-43. Clearly, the Husky secondary needs some rebuilding. Washington also lost speedy WR John Ross (81 catches and 17 TDs), as he was chosen ninth overall by the Bengals. However, the Huskies are still deep in proven play-makers. That starts will QB Jake Browning, who threw for 3430 yards with 43 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, helping the Huskies roll up a school-record 585 points (41.8 PPG on 456.9 YPG). RB Gaskin is off back-to-back 1300-yard rushing seasons. Ross is gone at WR but Dante Pettis and Chico McClatcher will keep Rutgers' secondary busy. Pettis is also an outstanding kick-returner, who has five career punt return TDs, one off the Pac-12 record held by California's DeSean Jackson. Rutgers: Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new OC at Rutgers and he gets a new QB in Louisville graduate Kyle Bolin and word is, he's fitting in well. Dangerous WR/KR Janarion Grant is back after missing the last eight games of last season with an ankle injury (when he went down, the Rutgers offense went 'south!'). Rutgers also owns a deep stable of RBs, the best of whom is Robert Martin. The defense was often over-matched last season (allowed 37.5 PPG and just over 450 YPG) but eight starters do return. With Kill on board to take over the offense, Ash (a DC under Meyer), will devote most of his energy on that defense. The pick: It should be noted that Rutgers' defense suffered as a result of the team's offensive ineptitude last season, being forced to stay on the field far too long and in terrible field position. With a much better QB situation and the return of play-maker Grant, that should change in 2017. Can it change enough to compete with a team like Washington? If the question is, will there be an upset, the answer is no. However, while Rutgers has virtually no chance of winning, staying within this HUGE number is more than realistic. Make Rutgers a 10* play. |
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