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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Patriots -6 v. Lions | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is desperate for a win at 0-2, but the Patriots are coming off a humbling 31-20 road loss in Jacksonville and they’ll be eager to deliver the knock-out blow to the Lions here. The teams: NE QB Tom Brady had 234 passing yards and two TD’s last week, but it wasn’t enough as his defense would uncharacteristically struggle. Brady has 511 yards and a 5/1 TD:INT after two weeks. So far the Pats are averaging 23.5 PPG and allowing 25.5. Detroit is averaging 22 PPG and it’s allowing 39 PPG. That’s dead last in the NFL. Last week it allowed 190 rushing to Matt Breida of the 49ers. The pass defense was decent, but No. 1 CB Darius Slay went down with a concussion last week. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NE is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Detroit is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Lions’ terrible defensive play is just what the doctor ordered for Brady to get back on track. Lay the points.
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chargers rallied for a 31-20 road win in Buffalo last Sunday, while the Rams smashed the Cardinals 34-0. The teams: The Chargers got back on track defensively and into the win column against an inept Bills team, but in Week 1 against the Chiefs they looked horrible. On both sides of the ball. And now the Bolts face last year’s No. 1 offense. So far the Chargers are averaging 29.5 PPG and allowing 29. The Rams are averaging 33.5 PPG and allowing 6.5. That’s No. 1 in the league. Jared Goff and Gurley form a difficult “one, two-punch.” LA was able to rest many of its starters in last week’s blowout victory. The pick: This game features a couple of great running backs and two dynamic QB’s. But the Rams have the far superior defense and special teams. They also have the home field advantage. This is a statement game for the Rams and I look for them put on a show. Lay the points.
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09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis comes in off a 21-9 road win over Washington and I think it’ll be able to keep this one competitive as well against an Eagles team which comes in off a 27-21 loss to Tampa Bay. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 179 passing yards, two TD’s and two INT’s last week. TY Hilton had seven catches for 83 yards. So far the Colts are averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 21.5. Last week the defense was especially sharp in not allowing a TD. The Eagles are averaging 19.5 PPG and they’re also allowing 19.5. QB Carson Wentz makes his debut (finally), but clearly the pivot is going to have to go through some “growing pains” before obtaining his previous form. Philadelphia looked horrible against the pass last week, giving up 402 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while Philadelphia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think Luck keeps this one close. Grab the points.
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09-23-18 | Broncos +5.5 v. Ravens | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore comes in deflated off a road loss in Cincinnati, while the Broncos come in “under the radar” at 2-0. Denver plays its first road game of the season and I think the defensive minded Broncos will keep this one interesting. The teams: Broncos’ RB Phillip Lindsay has posted back-to-back 100 yards games, becoming the first undrafted player in league history to do so. He had a 53 yard run in his team’s 20-19 victory over the Raiders last week. Look for QB Case Keenum to take advantage of a Ravens’ secondary which will be without CB Jimmy Smith (suspension.) Baltimore is allowing almost 170 yards through the air. The Broncos held Oakland to just 92 rushing yards, but gave up 288 passing yards and a TD through the air. Baltimore gave up four sacks in the loss to the Bengals last week. The Ravens are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on offense, which is third-worst in the NFL. Joe Flacco has been serviceable, but the QB match-up today is definitely a “wash” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think Denver’s defense is a difference maker in this one. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -6 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -102 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This is going to be a war. New York is 0-2 and Houston is 0-2. The Giants fell 20-13 to the Cowboys last week, while the Texans lost 20-17 to Tennessee. The teams: Giants’ QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards, but he was also sacked six times. So far Manning has 503 passing yards with one TD and one INT. RB Saquon Barkley was shut down, finishing with just 28 yards on 11 carries last week. Overall the Giants are averaging just 14 PPG. The defense has been a bright spot, allowing 20 PPG so far. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson has looked a lot better than his counterpart in the early going, last week he had 310 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. Overall he has 486 passing yards and a 3/2 TD:INT. Lamar Miller was a bright spot last week as well with 68 yards on 14 carries. The Texans only scored 17 points last week, but the unit did produce 437 total yards. The pick: Houston’s offensive yardage production so far hasn’t led to a lot of points, but I expect that trend to start normalizing itself here. The Giants have been decent defensively, but I think the unit takes a step back this week in this difficult road venue. Look for Watson to finally have his break out game and lay the points.
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09-22-18 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 44 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-22-18 | NC State -5 v. Marshall | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: NC State comes in fresh here as its Week 3 matchup against No. 12 ranked WVU was postponed due to the Hurricane. So far the Wolfpack are 2-0 with victories over Georgia State and James Madison. Marshall’s Week 3 contest was also cancelled with South Carolina. It’s also 2-0 with wins over Miami and Eastern Kentucky. The teams: NC State QB Finley has over 6,500 yards and 35 TD’s the past two seasons and he has over 300 yards passing in each of the first two games this year. The offense gets a big boost this week as well with the addition of former Trojan TE Cary Angeline, who was a four-star recruit and who is expected to play a big part in the offense right away. Marshall QB Isaiah Green has 550 yards over his first two games. Tyre Brady caught 11 passes for 248 yards in a losing cause to NC State last year and I think he’s going to come up short this season as well. The pick: As note that the Herd are just 3-10 in their last 13 against teams from Power Five conferences. Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points.
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09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 90 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Of course not. But I think Miami Florida comes in distracted enough to let lowly FIU sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The teams: FIU destroyed UMass 63-24 last weekend, as QB James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Shawndarrius Phillips had 117 rushing yards. Overall Morgan has six TD’s and three INT’s. Clearly this is a huge step up in competition, but after two straight wins, the Panthers won’t just be rolling over here today. Miami Florida comes in off a big win too, smashing Toledo 49-24. QB Malik Rosier was 13 of 23 for 205 yards and two TD’s, while also adding 80 yards and three more scores on the ground. Note that the defense took a major hit with an injury to Jaquan Johnson. He he went out Toledo gained huge chunks through the air. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FIU is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Miami Florida is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think a confident and “under the radar” FIU team can keep this one competitive against an over-confident and complacent Hurricanes home side. Grab the points. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important early season ACC match-up between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Clemson enters off a 38-7 victory at home over Georgia Southern, while Georgia Tech is off a tough 24-19 road loss to Pittsburgh. Note that when these teams played last year it was Clemson that won 24-10 at home. The teams: Clemson comes in complacent here, now ranked No. 2 in the country. So far the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing 13.3. Clemson has a QB battle going on still between Trevor Lawrence and Kelly Bryant. Georgia Tech comes in hungry after opening the season 1-2. After a win over Alcorn State, the Yellow Jackets have dropped two straight on the road to South Florida and Pittsburgh. Overall the team is ranked 21st in the nation in total offense (510 YPG) and 64th in scoring with 32.7. The defense has also been sharp in allowing only 24.3 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The conditions are right for a much tighter than expected affair in my opinion. Grab the points. |
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09-22-18 | Minnesota +3 v. Maryland | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Big 10 Conference opener for both sides and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 after beating New Mexico State, Fresno State and Miami Ohio, while Maryland is now 2-1 after getting upset at home by Temple last week. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Golden Gophers as well after Maryland beat Minnesota on the road 31-24 last season. The teams: Last year the Gophers finished 30th in overall defense and 11th against the pass in allowing only 174.5 YPG through the air. The unit lost a bunch of faces, but it’s still allowing just 184.3 YPG through the air this season. RB Bryce Williams had 141 yards on 33 carries last week. QB Zack Annexstad suffered an ankle injury, but he still finished with 142 yards and two TD’s before leaving. He’s likely going to start here, but if he doesn’t, it’ll be Tanner Morgan, who was 1 of 5 with an INT last week. But with a week of preparation, Morgan should look a lot better here if he does have to play. Besides, Minnesota will be focusing on its ground game and defensive play to win this game anyways. The Terps went just 1 of 12 on third downs last week against a mediocre Owls defense and now they face one of the toughest units in the country. Maryland passed for just 63 yards and totalled 195 last Saturday. Remember, Temple had already posted losses against Buffalo and FCS Villanova as well. QB Kasim Hill was 7 of 17 for 96 yards and a pick. The pick: Maryland’s rattled and ripe for the picking. Minnesota comes in on top form and in a revenge situation after last year’s setback. The outright’s possible, but grab the points.
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09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +28.5 | Top | 63-24 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Penn State comes to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois off a 63-10 victory over Kent State last weekend. The Illini enter off a hard-fought 25-19 loss to USF. The teams: Penn State QB Trace McSorley had 229 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s blowout win. So far he has 604 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Miles Sanders would post 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. The defense looked sharp as well in limiting the Flashes to just 221 total yards. The Fighting Illini are averaging 28 PPG, while they’re allowing just 21. MJ Rivers II had 168 passing yards in last week’s loss. But No. 1 QB AJ Bush is expected back under center for this one, which is a huge boost for the home side’s confidence. Ricky Smalling was an offensive standout last week as well with 40 receiving yards. The pick: Illinois has already played tough at home, as evidenced by its early 2-1 ATS record. Penn State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, including 0-1 ATS this season. I’m banking on these strong trends continuing. Grab the points.
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Florida -13.5 | Top | 36-56 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF comes in refreshed because its game last weekend was cancelled because of Hurricane Florence. Central Florida is already 2-0 with victories over UConn and South Carolina State. FAU lost to Oklahoma, before then bouncing back with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. The teams: The Owls do indeed come in off the 49-28 win over Bethune-Cookman, but they’ve had just five days off. Clearly the visitors are at a major disadvantage from a fitness and mental stand-point this week already. Devin Singletary was a standout in the latest victory with a school-record five rushing TD’s. The Knights have 612 yards on the ground through two games and 606 through the air. Seven different players have gained at least 68 yards, led by Adrian Killins Jr., who has 127 yards and three TD’s. QB McKenzie Milton is so far 45 of 71 for 589 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FAU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while UCF is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think the “fresher” home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago. The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall. The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points. |
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09-16-18 | Giants +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time. The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards. Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points. |
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09-16-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the home side on the “run line” is the correct call in this Sunday night match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling, while the Cards go with Adam Wainwright. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Stripling’s back in the rotation out of necessity and he’s done exceptionally well whenever he’s been given the chance this season. Stripling’s been great, I simply feel that he and his team are over-priced in this spot against the hungry home side. Wainwright is so far 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He returned from the DL on Monday and gave up four runs while striking out three in a fortunate win over the Pirates. Clearly Wainwright has seen better days, but the veteran will be given every opportunity by the club during its playoff push. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Grab the Cards on the “run line.” |
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09-16-18 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking. The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards. San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +7 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe. The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina. |
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09-15-18 | Missouri v. Purdue +6.5 | Top | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The teams: Missouri is so far averaging 396 yards per game in the early going, but it faces a stiff test today. The offense has put up 45.5 PPG, while the defense has allowed only 13.5. QB Drew Lock had 687 yards, eight TD’s and no INT’s. Purdue is ranked 89th in the country in passing offense with an average of 202.5 YPG. 24th in rushing offense though with 271.5 YPG. So far the combination of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar has come up short under center, but I think that changes this weekend. The offense is averaging just 23 PPG right now, but the defense is giving up only 25.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field, while Purdue is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. An outright upset? Possibly. Purdue is without question the “hungrier” team and I think this game will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on Purdue. |
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09-15-18 | San Jose State v. Oregon -41 | Top | 22-35 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a classic “David vs. Goliath” match-up. However in this version, I believe Goliath will pound David through the field turf! Oregon comes in off back-to-back blowout victories and I fully expect that trend to carry over here for one more game. San Jose State on the other hand was shutout in a loss to Washington State last weekend. The teams: The Spartans put up 38 points in a loss to FCS UC Davis and then got killed by Washington State. Overall San Jose State has a total of 109 yards of offense over the first two games, with 100 of those coming through the air. So far Oregon has outscored its opponents by 31 points to open the year, as QB Justin Herbert has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, nine TD’s and two INT’s. The ground attack has been solid as well and it looks poised for a massive game here against SJSU’s pathetic defense. The pick: The Spartans though have been particularly horrible against the pass, giving up an average of 433 yards per game through the air to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while San Jose State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road. I don’t think SJSU will score a point. Lay the points. |
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09-15-18 | BYU +23 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for the Badgers to come in a tiny bit complacent here and I expect them to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent. Wisconsin has won two in a row, most recently hammering New Mexico 45-14, while BYU comes in off a slim 21-18 home setback to Cal. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game after Wisconsin smashed BYU 40-6 on the road last year. The teams: BYU QB Tanner Mangum was 22 of 41 for 196 yards and two INT’s last week. So far he has a 2:2 TD/INT over two games. Over the first two games the offense is averaging 23 points. The defense though has looked pretty good, last week it gave up 386 total yards. Over the first two games the Cougars are allowing 22 points. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has a 3:1 TD/INT after two games, after throwing 25 TD passes last season. RB Jonathan Taylor had 253 rushing yards, but he’ll be up against a decent BYU rush defense this week. The defense was a strength of the team last year and it will be again this season as well. However note that the unit did lose eight starters from last year’s squad. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Wisconsin is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 at home and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Grab the points, play on BYU. |
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09-15-18 | Miami-OH +13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 3-26 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Minnesota comes in complacent here after two straight wins, most recently a 21-14 victory at home over Fresno State. Miami Ohio on the other hand is looking to atone after a 21-0 “dud” loss to Cincinnati. The teams: Redhawks’ QB Gus Ragland had 357 yards passing in Week 1’s loss to Marshall, but he was just 22 of 41 for 139 in last week’s loss. WR James Gardner has been a bright spot early with 142 yards over the first two games. Miami Ohio has looked decent defensively in the early going as well, last week limiting Cincinnati to just 233 total yards. Note that he pass defense was ranked 41st last season. Last week the Golden Gophers limited Fresno State to 299 total yards. QB Zack Annexstad had 175 yards in the win. But the victory came at a major cost, as note that star RB Rodney Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. He is arguably the best player on the team and it’s a major blow to the team’s psyche. The pick: With a game at 2-0 Maryland next week, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” game for the Golden Gophers. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. |
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09-15-18 | Temple +17 v. Maryland | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first time these teams have played since 2012, however they’re separated by just two hours by bus. Temple is 0-2 after losing to FCS Villanova and then Buffalo, while Maryland comes in complacent at 2-0 after upsetting Texas 34-29, before then smashing Bowling Green 45-14. I am not predicting an outright upset, but I do think the Terps “look past” their lowly opponent today. The teams: Last year the Owls had the top ranked pass defense in the AAC and the unit returned many starters, including Shaun Bradely (85 tackles) and Delvon Randall this season. So far the defense has been a disappointment, but the talent is certainly there to make a bounce back. Last week the offense posted 240 yards, with QB Frank Nutile posting three TD’s and two INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead had 107 yards on 14 carries. Maryland was down 14-10 to the Green Falcons at half time last week, but it would outscore Bowling Green 35-0 in the second half. The Terps rushed for 444 yards. QB Kasim Hill was a disappointment though, going 8 of 16 for 121 yards and a TD. The Terps have looked solid defensively in the early going and vs. very weak competition, but don’t forget that they were last or near the bottom of the Big 10 in every defensive statistical category last year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Temple is still 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Maryland is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 at home. Grab the points, play on the Owls. |
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09-13-18 | Boston College -4.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 2-0. The Golden Eagles though play with revenge and they have a deeper overall team this season. I think that’s going to be more than enough to propel the visitors to a victory tonight. The teams: BC smashed Holy Cross 62-14 last weekend. QB Anthony Brown only had to play one quarter. In Week 1 he had four TD’s against UMass. Wake Forest’s weakness on defense is against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Demon Deacons tonight. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards last week. The defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. Wake Forest cruised to a 51-20 home win over Towson last week. QB Sam Hartman had two TD’s and 242 passing yards las week. He also has three INT’s early in the season though. RB Cade Carney had a big game with 130 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons looked sharp defensively against the lowly Tigers, holding them to just 65 rushing yards. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game (note that Wake was 124th in the country in defending the pass last year and it just let Towson throw for over 300!), while the Eagles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I look for BC QB Brown to have a very productive game here. Lay the points. |
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09-12-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the mound this afternoon, that I have no issues at all in laying the the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors go with Gerritt Cole, while the home side goes with Daniel Norris. The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with three walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a win over the Angels in his last start. Cole has been sharp on the road as well, going 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA. Norris is so far 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. He has struggled in his limited time so far this season and there’s no reason not to think that that pattern of futility won’t get carried over here as well. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine American League road games in which they’re a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Look for Cole to dominate from the start and for Norris to get the hook early and lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -6.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jets turn to rookie QB Sam Darnold in Week 1 and while the sky could in fact be the limit for the red-headed pivot, I think he’ll stumble trying to match pace with Lions’ veteran Matt Stafford. The teams: In three exhibition games Darnold went 29 of 45 for 244 yards and two TD’s with an INT. The Jets have talent, but no big names. Jermaine Kearse had 65 catches for 810 yards last year, but note that he could be unable to play in Week 1 due to an injury he suffered in the preseason. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell lead a decent ground game. The defense was a strength for New York last year and the unit should be again this season as well. Matt Patricia takes over as head coach for the Lions, as he looks to get the team over the hump. Stafford finished with 4,449 yards, 29 TD’s and ten INT’s last season. LeGarrette Blount was signed in the offseason and he’s expected to bolster a run game which was severely lacking last year. Also note that both of Stafford’s 1,000 yard receivers return in Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday Night Football games, while New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. Play on Detroit. |
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09-10-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: “The Prodigal Son” returns to his former stomping grounds, looking to dominate on the road. For a number of different reasons, I absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the defending champs on the run-line (-1.5) is the correct move. The Tigers send Francisco Liriano to the hill. The pitchers: Verlander is so far 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad ones of late (for his incredibly high standards anyways), but he has to be feeling confident here, coming in sporting the still elite 11-2, 2.26 ERA on the road this season. Liriano is so far 4-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He has been a disappointment for a second straight year and he can’t be feeling too confident at all here, as note that he’s a terrible 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine night American League road games in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs on Houston in this one. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -122 | 149 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: KC won the AFC West last year with a 10-6 record, but then it fell 22-21 at home to Tennessee in the Wild Card round. LA went 9-7 last year, but missed the playoffs. Note that this a “double revenge” game for the Chargers though after the Chiefs took both games last season. The teams: Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes was 22 of 35 for 284 yards, no TD’s and an INT in his limited time last year. KC’s ground game looks strong though with Kareem Hunt, who had 1,327 rushing yards and eight scores, along with 53 catches for 455 yards and three more TD’s. Travis Kelce will also be leaned upon heavily after finishing with 1,038 yards and eight TD’s last season. The Chargers go with veteran QB Philip Rivers, who had 4,515 yards, 28 TD’s and ten INT’s last year. RB Melvin Gordon had 1,105 rushing yards and eight TD’s, along with 476 receiving yards and another four TD’s. WR Keenan Allen had 1,393 yards receiving and six TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 1 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games overall, while KC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. I’m banking on Rivers easily out duelling Mahomes. Lay the points.
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1369 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Kick Cousins makes his Vikings debut against the 49ers and QB Jimmy Garappolo. The 49ers blew up their team after ten games last year and they never looked back with Garappolo under center. That said, I think he’ll be in for a rude awakening at what will undoubtedly be a rowdy atmosphere at the US Bank Stadium. The teams: Garoppolo was 5-0 as a starter for San Francisco last year. It was an unbelievable run, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. The Vikings possessed the best defensive unit in the league last year, one which was even better in front of the home town crowd. The pick: This is an “early,” release, so I plan on updating my analysis as we get closer to game time. However, over the time of this release and when this one kicks off, I do indeed expect this line to climb. Normally at this time of year the defensive units are many steps ahead of the offensive side and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this one. Combined with the competent Cousins and a Vikings team looking to take out its frustrations after the loss in the NFC Championship Game last year, this one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Vikes. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 146 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Many will be on Pittsburgh here I think. But the Browns looked sharp in the preseason with their “new look” line-up and I think they’ll keep this one interesting late. The Steelers were 13-3 last year, while Cleveland was 0-16. Not surprisingly this is indeed a “revenge” game for the Browns, who lost both games last season. The teams: The Steelers averaged 25.4 PPG last year and allowed 19.3. Ben Roethlisberger is back under center, and Le’Veon Bell is back as RB. Note Bell did not play in a single preseason game, the same as last year. The Browns have plenty of new weapons on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Tyrod Taylor had 2,799 passing yards with a 14:4 TD/INT ratio last year for the Bills, as well as adding 427 rushing yards. Taylor, along with RB Carlos Hyde and WR Josh Gordon present a difficult challenge for anyone. In 11 games last year Myles Garrett made seven sacks, but the talented defender now comes into this season at 100% health finally. The pick: While they did lose both games to the Steelers last year, the Browns would make it competitive each time, falling 28-24 and 21-18. When the smoke clears at the end of this one I think we’ll see similarly hard-fought battle. Grab the points. |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -125 | 146 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Titans finished 9-7 last year and they beat the Chiefs 22-21 in the Wild card round of the playoffs, before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional round. The Fish were just 6-10 last year, but with the return of QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami is hoping for a return to the postseason. Tannehill though lacks talent around him and I think the “deeper” Titans will pull away down the stretch. The teams: Tennessee’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards with 13 TDs and 15 INTs last season. He also had 312 yards and five scores on the ground. RB Derrick Henry leads the ground attack after DeMarco Murray retired and he had 744 yards and five TD’s last year. Tannehill makes his first appearance since 2016, when he went for 2,995 yards 19 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Kenyan Drake had 644 yards and three TD’s rushing last year, while WR Danny Amendola had 659 yards and two TD’s. The pick: For this pick I’m going to focus on the starting QB’s and while Tannehill could be the saviour once again for Miami, I think Marriota is the correct call here. The Titans’ pivot comes off a very successful season and he should only be better again this year under the same system. This one has blowout written all over it, play on Tennessee. |
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09-08-18 | UTEP +24.5 v. UNLV | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The UTEP Miners come in off a 30-10 home loss to Northern Arizona, while UNLV fell 43-21 to USC last week. No outright upset here, but I think the visitors can keep it interesting late. The teams: Last week the Miners only managed 229 yards. Kai Locksley had 120 yards passing on 26 attempts. Last year UTEP had the nation’s worst offense, but it’s expected to take a few steps forward this season with many starters returning. The defense was solid, allowing 318 total yards, including just three yards per rush average. UNLV’s Armani Rogers was just 12 of 27 for 97 yards last week, but he did have two TD passes, while also rushing for 82 yards. RB Lexington Thomas was a bright spot with 136 yards on 14 carries. Last year the offense averaged 28.8 points. The UNLV defense fell apart late last week, after allowing 31.8 PPG last year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNLV is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. UTEP’s improved and with nothing to lose here, I look for it to indeed put up a bit of a fight. Grab the points. |
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09-08-18 | Tulsa v. Texas -21 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 129 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas comes in off an inexplicable loss at home to Maryland it’ll be risking life and limb today to get back on track. Thankfully for the ‘Horns, The Golden Hurricane come to town. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout in this one. The teams: Tulsa nearly fell to FCS school Central Arkansas last Saturday, needing a fourth quarter come from behind effort to beat the Bears 38-27. QB Luke Skipper was 15 of 24 for 196 yards and two TD’s. The last time the Golden Hurricane faced a Big 12 team it didn’t go too well though, falling 59-26 at No. 10 Oklahoma State last season. Texas’ late rally fell short last week. QB Same Ehlinger had 263 yards and two TD’s. He also had two INT’s. It was an all around uncharacteristically sloppy game for the Longhorns, also suffering ten penalties for 102 yards. The pick: I think it’s impossible for Texas to play that horribly again though. I’l point out at as well that Texas has not opened 0-2 since 1992. Look for the ‘Horns to settle down at home and to take advantage of this suspect Golden Hurricanes’ defense. Lay the points. |
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09-08-18 | Maryland v. Bowling Green +16 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Maryland comes in off a big win over No. 23 Texas from Landover last weekend and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for the hungry Bowling Green Falcons to comfortably cover with the healthy spread they’ve been afforded. The teams: Maryland QB Kasim Hill was 17 of 29 for 222 yards and one TD. RB Jeshaun Jones had a TD, threw a TD pass and also caught a TD pass. Defensively though the Terps were a bit of a disappointment, allowing 405 yards total, including 263 yards through the air. Bowling Green fell 58-24 at Oregon last week. Last year the Green Falcons were just 2-10 overall and 2-6 in the MAC. QB Jarret Doege was 22 of 38 for 253 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. The Falcons looked good early, but then they fell apart in the second half. Note that the running game did produce 155 yards. The pick: The Green Falcons actually return seven starters on the defensive side and now that they’ve gotten the high-flying Ducks out of the way, I think the unit will have an opportunity against the Terps aggressive offense (which I stated off the top will suffer a letdown after last week’s big road upset.) I’m not calling for the outright win, but I’m definitely expecting a “war.” Grab the points. |
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09-08-18 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte +13.5 | Top | 45-9 | Loss | -106 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Appalachian State comes in off a heart-breaking 45-38 OT loss at No. 10 Penn State last weekend and I think it’s going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for Charlotte to comfortably cover with this healthy spread. The 49ers come in off a 34-10 win over Fordham. The teams: App State had a 451-434 total yardage edge in last week’s loss, as QB Zac Thomas was 25 of 38 for 270 yards, two TD’s and an INT, while also running for 43 yards and another score. Jalin Moore led the ground attack with 88 yards and a score. Charlotte held a 488-287 yard advantage last week over Fordham, as QB Chris Reynolds went 13 of 20 for 267 yards and a score. Benny LeMay had 25 carries for 135 yards and two TD’s. LeMay also had three catches for 83 yards. The pick: Appalachian State laid everything it had on the line and it still wasn’t enough against Penn State last week. I think the Mountaineers come in dejected, while the 49ers can only come in encouraged. In a much closer than expected battle, I’m grabbing the points. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -9.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia has won three straight in this series and I think the Bulldogs are going to once again pull away big on Saturday afternoon. The teams: Georgia opened the season with a 45-0 win over FCS Austin Peay. QB Jake Fromm was 12 of 16 for 157 yards and two TD’s. Fromm only played half the game before making room for his backups. In all Georgia would post 508 yards of offense and nine different players had at least one carry, while another 11 had at least one caught pass. The defense was a strength last year and while the Week 1 win can’t be considered a true test, the unit still looked sharp in allowing just 152 yards of total offense to the Governors. The Gamecocks were held to under 20 points in four of their eight SEC games last year. In Week 1 South Carolina looked pretty good though in its 49-15 thrashing of Coastal Carolina. Jake Bentley was 22 of 29 for 250 yards and four TD’s, while RB Rico Dowle had 105 yards on 15 carries. The pick: Fromm had 196 yards and two TD’s in last year’s 24-10 win over South Carolina, while the defense had two INT’s. Bentley was 21 of 35 for 227 yards, a TD and two INT’s in the loss. the Gamecocks’ only victory in 12 road games against Top 5 teams dating back to the mid 90’s occurred on October 26th, 2013. I think the Bulldogs’ smothering defense proves to be too much for South Carolina in the end. Lay the points. |
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09-08-18 | Rutgers +35 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m of course not calling for an outright upset, but after Ohio State’s 77-31 throttling of Oregon State in Week 1, I think the Buckeyes come in a bit complacent in this Week 2 “cream puff,” leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Scarlet Knights to sneak in through down the stretch. The teams: Rutgers comes in off a 35-7 win over Texas State. QB Artur Sitkowski was a bit shaky with three INT’s, but he’d also go 20 of 30 for 205 yards and a TD. The Scarlet Knights will clearly have their hands full defensively today, but the unit looked pretty good in Week 1 anyways. Ohio State was playing under interim Ryan Day last week and it would still go on to post 721 yards of offense. QB Dwayne Haskins was 22 of 30 for 313 yards and five TD’s, while also running for 24 yards and two more TD’s. The pick: Clearly Ohio State is on an entirely different level than Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are without question improved from last season’s team and they won’t be going down without a fight this afternoon. With an interesting game at TCU next weekend, I think Ohio State gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. Grab the points, play on Rutgers. |
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09-08-18 | Liberty v. Army -9.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up:Liberty is on the road after collecting its first FBS win in a 52-10 blow-out victory over Old Dominion last Saturday. Army though comes in “hungrier” after it fell 34-14 at Duke last Friday. The teams: The Liberty Flames had a 595-301 yards advantage over ODU, with Stephen Calvert going 25 of 36 for 345 yards and four TD’s. Ketory Matthews had 101 yards on the ground and a TD as well. Army was only out gained 381-365 in its Week 1 setback. Also note that it had a hefty 36:06 to 23:54 in time possession. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was 10 of 21 for 197 yards and a score, while Calen Holt had 54 yards on seven carries. The pick: Beating ODU is one thing, but beating a hungry Army team at home is quite another. Last year the Golden Knights had their best season in a decade behind one of the nation’s leading run games. Until Liberty can prove it can hang with some of the more respected schools, you have to love Army to bounce back in friendly confines. And in a big way! Lay the points. |
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09-07-18 | TCU -21 v. SMU | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 107 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Does anyone think that TCU is going to find a way to lose this one outright, or in any other way but in blowout fashion? I’m expecting a lop-sided destruction from start to finish and I therefore have no issues at all in laying this larger spread. The Horned Frogs smashed Southern 55-7 last week, while SMU fell 46-23 at North Texas. The teams: TCU QB Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s last week. RB Darius Anderson had 36 yards last week after finishing with 768 last year. TCU averaged 33.7 PPG last season and the offense will once again be a strength this year as well. But not to be outdone, the defense was even better for the Horned Frogs, allowing only 19 PPG. SMU averaged 37.8 PPG last season, but it would unfortunately allow 36.7 at the same time. Last week the Mustangs allowed 530 total yards to the Mean Green. Also note that QB Ben Hicks’ numbers are skewed, as most of his stats came in garbage time, finishing with 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game, while TCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five on field turf. After giving up 46 points to North Texas last week, look for the Mustangs to fail miserably here again. Lay the points.
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09-07-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the “run-line” the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada. The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there’s no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season. Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work. The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he’s a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the “run line.” |
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09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. Yanks’ ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he’s a little over-valued. In the end I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side. The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He’s been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A’s Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he’d finally come back down to Earth in this one. The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A’s on the “run line.” |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -112 | 1084 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important ACC match-up on Monday night between the No. 20 VT Hokies and the No. 19 FSU Seminoles. The teams: Virginia Tech was 9-4 last year and 5-3 in in league play, which was then followed by a 30-21 loss to OK State in the Camping World Bowl. Last year the Hokies averaged 28.2 PPG and allowed just 14.8. While duplicating those suffocating defensive numbers will be difficult with many of those key players gone, the pieces are still in place for another productive campaign on that side of the ball. Josh Jackson is the man under center and he finished with a 20/9 TD/INT and had 324 rushing yards as well. Florida State went 7-6 last year and 3-5 in ACC play, followed by a loss to Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 PPG last year and they allowed 21.2. The defense was a strength last season and it will be again this year as well with many of the starters returning. Deondre Francois is the starting QB and he missed most of last season with injury. The pick: Francois though had a 20/8 TD:INT in 2016 and he comes in with a ton of experience. Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. I think FSU is the more complete team through all three phases, as questions do remain about VT’s defense. Lay the points. |
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09-03-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the hill tonight that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs on Zack Godley and the home side. The Padres turn to Bryan Mitchell. The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA. He’s been activated from the DL to make this start. To go along with his terrible ERA, note that Mitchell also has a disturbingly poor 23:35 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work. Godley is so far 14-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the Giants on Wednesday. Godley has now posted a quality start in four of his last six outings. The pick: Note as well that Godley has been at his best at home this year by going 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA. Look for Godley to build off his latest performance and lay the 1.5 runs with confidence. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.” |
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09-01-18 | Bowling Green +31.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-58 | Loss | -106 | 119 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously don’t think the Bowling Green Falcons will win this one outright, I do think that Oregon will come out a bit flat against its lowly opponent. The teams: The Green Falcons went 2-10 in 2017, but experience at the skill positions should see Bowling Green inch closer to .500 this year. Jarret Doege is back as QB, he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and just three INT’s after taking over half way through. Andrew Clair returns as the top RB, he had a respectable 725 and a 6.8 yards per carry average. The defense was a weak point last year and will be again this season, however it should be a lot better with many starters returning, including Brandon Harris, who had 92 tackles. The Ducks have a Heisman hopeful in QB Justin Hebert, who had 1,983 yards and 15 TD’s and in eight games last year. Oregon has a ton of depth at RB, but filling the void of 5,600 rusher Royce Freeman obviously won’t be easy. Tony Brooks-James had 498 yard rushing last year. Oregon has question marks in the receiving game. It also has five projected defensive starters as sophomores. The pick: With nothing to lose, I think an improved Bowling Green team can keep this one interesting. Or at least somewhat competitive until late in the third. Either way, grab all these points, play on the Falcons. |
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09-01-18 | Cincinnati +16.5 v. UCLA | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bearcats and Bruins square off at the famous Rose Bowl on Saturday. UCLA finished 6-6 in 2017 before then losing to Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl. Cincinnati was just 4-8 last year, including only 2-6 in AAC action. The teams: Cincinnati is expecting a much better campaign in 2018/19 though, as QB Hayden Moore is back for his senior year. He finished with 2,561 yards and 20 TD’s in 2017. WR Kahlil Lewis is back and he had 676 yards and seven TD’s, while RB Gerrid Doaks, who missed the final three games of the year with an ankle injury, still led the team with 513 yards on the ground. Many return on the defensive side of the ball as well. UCLA now has to replace QB Josh Rosen, who went to the NFL after his senior year last season. The Bruins’ choices aren’t great (Devon Modster, Wilton Speight, Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Bruins are a terrible 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games as well. Cincinnati has a very real shot at posting an outright upset against the “rudder-less” Bruins, but I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. |
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09-01-18 | UNLV v. USC -26 | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -106 | 115 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: USC has to replace three key offensive pieces, but I think it’ll have more than enough on opening night to bury its overmatched opponent. The teams: UNLV was 5-7 last year, losing to FCS school Howard in its opener as a 45-point favorite. The Runnin Rebels turned things around late by winning three of their final five to finish with a .500 record in league play. Armani Rogers is back under center and he threw for 1,471 yards, six TD’s and also ran for 780 yards. RB Lexington Thomas is back as well and he had 1,336 yards and 17 TD’s last year. The defense was a weakness last season and it’s a bit of a question mark heading into this year with the loss of its top two finishers in tackles to graduation (note that UNLV allowed 31 or more points seven different times last year and it also finished second to last in the nation with just 11 sacks total.) USC was 11-3 last year and it’ll have to replace its No. 1 QB, RB and WR. The battle at QB begins between Matt Fink, Jack Sears and JT Daniels. The Trojans were deep at RB, and now it’s time for the trio of Aca’Cedric Ware, Stephen Carr and Vavae Malaepeai to battle it out on the ground (they combined for 871 yards last year.) The defense was tied atop the FBS with 46 sacks, but its weakness was against the pass, allowing 22 TD’s through the air. The pick: Fortunately for the Trojans though they face a team which is dealing with QB issues of its own. I think the home side defense turns out to be the difference maker in this one. Lay the points and expect a rout.
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09-01-18 | West Virginia v. Tennessee +9.5 | Top | 40-14 | Loss | -106 | 2041 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Jeremy Pruitt is the new head coach of the Tennessee Vols and he’ll have his hands full right out of the gate with WVU up first. Note that this is a neutral site game at Charlotte and this is the first time ever that the programs have battled each other. The teams: The Mountaineers finished the 2017 season with a 7-5 record. WVU will be led by Will Grier under center, as he returns for his senior season. The Vols are coming off a 4-8 season. QB Keller Chryst is going to be leaned upon heavily here to bring stability to the offense. Tennessee also picked up RB’s Chance Hall and Trey Smith, who should keep opposing defenses honest. Receiver Jauan Jennings is a difference maker and I think he’ll get his opportunities against WVU. Jennings will be out to prove himself after he broke his wrist in the 2017 season opener. The pick: This is a very early release. As game time approaches, I plan to update my analysis. However, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a competitive affair. WVU knows how to put points on the board, but its defense was its achilles heel last year. The Mountaineers may even be caught “looking past” their lowly opponent to its difficult upcoming schedule and in this neutral site affair. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a tighter than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Vols. |
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09-01-18 | Texas -13 v. Maryland | Top | 29-34 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a blowout here. The Longhorns went just 7-6 last year, but they return 14 players. Maryland has off-season issues to deal with, including the tragic death of right guard Jordan McNair due to heat stroke in June during drills. With the Terps’ minds on “other” things right now, look for Texas to break this one wide open. The teams: Texas starts QB Sam Ehlinger, who is 6’ 3” 240 LBS. Last year he had 1,915 yards, 11 TD’s and seven picks while also running for 385 yards and two more scores. Overall Texas averaged 29.5 PPG and the defense made massive strides last season by allowing only 21.2 PPG. Overall the ‘Horns ranked second in the Big 12 and eighth in the country in rush defense. Many defensive starters return and the unit will clearly be a strength of the team this year as well. With the death of McNair, the entire coaching staff had to be let go in the wake of the scandal for the poor Terps. Maryland was 4-8 overall last year and finished near the bottom of every category both offensively and defensively (allowed 37 PPG.) The pick: Texas will have plenty of fans from Landover and I think the ‘Horns can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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09-01-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Oklahoma -21 | Top | 14-63 | Win | 100 | 111 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Conf. USA is on the road to take on the Big 12, as the FAU Owls are big underdogs against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come off big 2018’s, as FAU was 11-3, while Oklahoma went 12-2 and it lost to Georgia 54-48 in the Rose Bowl. The teams: FAU had a great year in Lane Kiffin’s first year as coach. But even more so than the Sooners today, the Owls have a major transition period upcoming after QB Jason Driskel moved on. That means that De’Andre Johnson, Chris Robinson or Rafe Peavey will all see time under center. The rest of the offense remains loaded in talent. Baker Mayfield is gone for the Sooners, meaning that Kyler Murray (18 of 21 for 359 yards, three TD’s and 142 rushing yards last year) becomes the “main man.” The defense was a strength last season for Oklahoma, allowing 27.1 points and it should only be better this year with many key pieces returning. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FAU is a poor 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Big 12 Conference. No Mayfield, ho problem! Look for the Sooners’ wealth of depth be just too much for the Owls to handle on opening weekend. Lay the points. |
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08-31-18 | Utah State +24 v. Michigan State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the Mountain West Conference on the road to East Lansing, Michigan to take on the Spartans. Note that this is the first ever meeting between the schools. Last year Utah State was 6-7, while Michigan State went 10-3. The teams: Utah State finished with a losing record, but it was enough for a Bowl spot (lost 26-20 to New Mexico State in the Arizona Bowl.) Note though that the Aggies return 52 of 67 lettermen back, including nine starters on each side of the ball. Utah State averaged 30.2 PPG last season with Jordan Love going for 1,631 yards, eight TD’s and six INT’s. The defense was a weak point, but seven of the unit’s top eight tacklers return and their linebacking corp rates as second best in the Conference. In the end the defense allowed 26.9 PPG. The Spartans averaged 24.5 PPG and allowed 20.0. QB Brian Lewerke is back and he had 2,793 yards with 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. Michigan State also returns its top three receivers. Last season the secondary was ranked 7th in the country and the defense will be a strength this year as well. The pick: I think this sets up as a bit of a trap for Michigan State though. The Aggies come in under the radar and their high-octane offense, combined with their experienced defensive unit makes the visitors the correct call here. Grab the points. |
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08-31-18 | Rays v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I think that Corey Kluber and the Indians on the “run line” are the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow this evening. The pitchers: Glasnow is so far 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Thursday. Glasnow has been serviceable this season, but note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. Kluber is 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA. Kluber comes in off perhaps the worst start of his career, giving up five runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Royals on Saturday. The pick: No reason to hit the panic button if you’re a Kluber fan though, who is 8-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine night home contests in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout. |
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08-31-18 | Army v. Duke -13 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the fourth straight season that these teams have met. Duke finished over .500 last year and it’s going to expect an even bigger step this season. Army comes in off one of its best campaigns of all time, which included a victory over Navy in the annual Army/Navy game. Regression does seem imminent though for a unit which has seen a lot of turnover. The teams: Army also got the better of SDSU in the Armed Forces Bowl and finished 10-3 overall. Offensive leader Ahmad Bradshaw is gone though, meaning that Kelvin Hopkins will be leaned upon. Andy Davidson and Darnell Woolfolk are back and they combined for 1,439 rushing yards and 19 TD’s. Overall the defense ranked 32nd and the unit will once again be the strength of the team this season. Duke is led by QB Daniel Jones, who had 14 TD’s and 11 picks last year (both worse than when he was a freshman). You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR TJ Rahming, who had 65 snags for 800 yards last season. The pick: Both teams have key playmakers on both sides of the ball to replace this year. Opening up the season on the road against a Power Five opponent is tough though and I think Army will stumble in its first test. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a non-conference match-up between two schools with big expectations. For a number of different reasons though, I think Wake Forest will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The teams: Wake Forest returns 15 starters in total this year, including nine on offense. After finishing 8-5 last season, Wake is expecting to at least duplicate that mark this year. The offense averaged 35.3 PPG in 2017 and overall the Demon Deacons would go on to beat six teams that would wind up going to a Bowl game. Freshman Sam Harman had 9,481 yards and 98 touchdowns in high school and he’s expected to make a big impact in this offense. Tulane returns seven starters on offense from a year ago, a unit which wound up averaging 27.5 PPG. Jon Banks is now a senior and the QB will once again be leaned upon heavily. Note that Banks was the second leading rusher on the team last season as well. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Green Wave are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the ACC, while the Demon Deacons are a superb 10-4 ATS in the last 14 road contests. Wake had one of the ACC’s top offenses last year and with so many key players returning, they could be even better this season. Tulane will put up a fight for the first half, but expect the Demon Deacons to put the foot on the gas in the second. Lay the points.
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08-30-18 | Central Florida v. Connecticut +23.5 | Top | 56-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a match-up of the AAC’s East Division and while I’m clearly not going to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think that the Huskies can keep this one competitive. The teams: UCF was 13-0 last year, finishing with a 34-27 victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. McKenzie Milton is back under center for the Knights this year, he had 4,037 yards and 37 TD’s last season. The ground game is also strong with Adrian Killins Jr. and Dredrick Snelson. UConn was 3-9 last year, it’s seventh straight losing season. Randy Edsall has taken over as head coach and he’ll be looking for a much better showing in 2018/19 (obviously). David Pindell is now the man under center, last year he had 937 yards, four TD’s, six INT’s and 289 rushing yards with another four rushing TD’s. RB Nate Hopkins had 343 yards and seven TD’s. The pick: Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Huskies, who have lost two in a row in the series, including a 49-24 road setback last November. UConn though returns several starters on each line and I think that’s going to make a big difference in the early going. UCF has a favorable 2018/19 schedule, with another “cream puff” in Week 2 against South Carolina State. I ultimately believe that UCF comes out a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the hungry Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. |
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08-30-18 | Dolphins v. Falcons | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 0-3 as we head into the final week of the preseason. Does either even care what happens in Week 4? Probably not. So where’s the advantage? For this meaningless contest, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Miami lost 27-10 to Baltimore last week, while Atlanta fell 17-6 to the Jags. The teams: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill looked decent last week, going 11 of 16 for 115 yards and a touchdown. Backup Brock Osweiler though struggled, going for 23 yards and one interception. With Tannehill shelved in Week 4, the battle between Osweiler and David Fales continues (Fales has been horrible as well with a 0:2 TD/INT through three games.) Atlanta struggled against the Jags’ aggressive defensive attack last week. Matt Ryan was just 5 of 12 for 57 yards. Ryan won’t be suiting up today, meaning Matt Schaub will see the majority of time under center. So far Schaub is 20 of 26 for 194 yards and a TD in the preseason. The pick: Note that this is a revenge game of sorts after the Fish bested the Falcons 20-17 last October. I think Schaub continues his decent preseason and I look for Atlanta to find a way to get the job done for the home town crowd at the end of the night. Lay the points.
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08-30-18 | Browns v. Lions +2 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 1-2 so far in the preseason, while Cleveland is 2-1. I think the Browns simply go through the motions today though as they look ahead to Week 1. Conversely, I believe the Lions will be looking for a little more momentum as they head into the Regular season and as such, I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover in front of the home town crowd. The teams: The Browns come in off a very satisfying win over the defending champion Eagles at home in Week 3. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Baker Mayfield will see the majority of snaps today. Last week he was 8 of 12 for 76 yards, while RB Nick Chubb added 46 rushing yards. Matt Stafford won’t be suiting up for Detroit, meaning Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock will continue to battle it out for the official No. 1 backup QB spot. Cassel and Rudock though looked great in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win, combining to go 16 of 23 for 118 yards and two touchdowns. The pick: As mentioned off the top, I think Cleveland is already “looking ahead” to the “real thing.” The Lions will look to take advantage and send the home side crowd home happy on Thursday night. Lay the points. |
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08-29-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and taking the home side on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side goes with David Price. The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA. He’s coming off a couple of sub-par outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 1-4, 5.74 ERA. Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Tribe on Thursday, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in the commanding performance. The pick: Price has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball over the second half, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA and an impressive 40:7 K/BB over six starts. I believe the veteran continues his end of season progression with another gem. Play on the Red Sox on the “run line.” |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming -3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This inter-conference clash is happening on Saturday night from the Aggie Memorial Stadium. Wyoming was 8-5 overall last year, which culminated in a 37-14 win over CMU in the Potato Bowl, while New Mexico State was 7-6 last season, capped off by a victory over Utah State in the Arizona Bowl. The teams: Josh Allen is gone in Wyoming, but I still love the Cowboys here. Nick Smith and Tyler Vander Waal are now fighting for the No. 1 spot and each will see time under center tonight. Kellen Overstreet had 481 rushing yards on 108 carries last year and he’ll be splitting duties with Trey Woods. The offense will have some growing pains to work through, but fortunately the defense remains elite, as eight starters return, including LB Logan Wilson, who had 111 tackles last season (the Cowboys held the opposition to just 17.5 PPG, ranked ninth in the nation.) The Aggeis are now an Independent school. New Mexico State also has an early QB battle going on between Matthew Romero and favorite Nick Jeanty. RB Jason Huntley will be leaned upon heavily this season to alleviate some of that pressure from these young QB’s. Without QB Jake Rogers though, I think New Mexico State will have a hard time duplicating last year’s high-flying offensive passing numbers. Seven starters return on the defensive side and the unit should be improved over last year’s mediocre group. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New Mexico State is 0-4 ATS in its last four on “turf,” while Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five played on “turf.” I like the Cowboys’ QB’s a lot better in this match-up and it goes without saying that Wyoming’s defense is by far superior. Lay the points.
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08-24-18 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I simply feel that the Seahawks are going to be the “hungrier” team tonight. The Hawks are 0-2 in the preseason so far, while Minnesota is 1-1. The teams: Seattle fell 19-17 to Indianapolis in Week 1 and then lost 24-14 at LA last week. Russell Wilson has been decent in his limited time so far in the preseason with 236 yards and a TD, while the other offensive standout is David Moore, who has 106 receiving yards on four catches. The defense was supposed to be a weak point for the Hawks this year, but so far it’s been decent by allowing 293.5 YPG, including only 167.5 through the air. Minnesota beat Denver 42-28 in Week 1, before then taking a step back in last week’s 14-10 loss to the Jaguars. The Vikes offense struggled against the Jags backup defensive unit and I think it’ll have its hands full with this “under the radar” Hawks defense as well. Note that QB Kirk Cousins was just 3 of 8 for 12 yards. Minnesota’s defense looked sharp and it’ll be a strength of the team this year for sure. The pick: Seattle’s first two weeks of the preseason have been building to this moment and I think the Hawks come to play today. Cousins and the offense struggled last week for the Vikings and it’s not going to get any easier facing Seattle’s defensive starters. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I am grabbing as many points as I can.
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08-24-18 | Giants +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 3 of the NFL Preseason sees the Giants hit the road to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Giants. The teams: The Giants come in with a ton of momentum after knocking off the Lions 30-17 in Week 2. And that was with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. sitting on the sidelines. QB Davis Webb was 14 of 20 for 140 yards and a TD. Even without Barkley in the backfield the Giants’ run game looked sharp, with Wayne Gallman, Kyle Lauletta and Robert Martin all with a rushing touchdown. The Jets are 1-1 in the preseason, most recently coming off a disheartening 15-13 road loss at Washington. QB Sam Darnold was mediocre by going 8 of 11 for 61 yards and an INT. Backup Teddy Bridgewater was 17 of 23 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and an INT. The pick: The Giants looked good with their offensive stars on the sideline last week, but now Manning, Barkley and Odell are expected to see some snaps in Week 3. And despite Bridgewater clearly outplaying Darnold last week, the Jets are expected to instead give the rookie considerable time under center tonight. I like the veteran players of the Giants to step up early and believe that’ll be enough in the end. |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins -2.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver travels to the Nation’s capital looking for an identity on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have many questions marks as well, but I think Washington’s superior strength at the QB position will prove to be the difference in this Week 3 preseason contest. The teams: Denver enters off a deflating 24-23 loss to the Bears on Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was 5 of 11 for 39 yards. QB Chad Kelly was 7 of 9 for 90 yards and a TD. RB Phillip Lindsay was a bright spot though with 32 yards. Defensively the Broncos looked terrible and I think they’ll have their hands full again here in this difficult venue. Washington comes in with momentum after a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2. Alex Smith was 4 of 6 for 48 yards, while the combination of Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy would go 19 of 27 for 198 yards. The pick: The Broncos have major QB questions. The Redskins don’t. No need to overthink this one in my opinion as I look for the home side to play like the “hungrier” team and to find a way to get the job done in the end. |
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08-24-18 | Phillies v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I’m therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki. The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a “nail-biter” and grab the 1.5 runs. |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +4 v. Browns | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia is so far 0-2 in the preseason, but I think the defending champs come to play in the Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Most recently the Eagles fell 37-20 on the road in New England in a clear statement game by the Pats. After a Week 1 win, the Browns predictably came back down to Earth in last weekend’s 19-17 loss at home to the Bills. The teams: Nick Foles and Carson Wentz have seen limited time so far in the preseason, but each is expected to see some today for the Eagles. Foles was three off nine for 44 yards last week. A bright spot though was the play of third string QB Nate Sudfeld, who was 22 of 39 for 312 yards, posting three TD’s and one INT. Rookie Dallas Goeddert also impressed as he had three catches for 57 yards and when teamed up with TE Zach Ertz, the Eagles remain one of the top offensive threats in the league. There’s lots to be optimistic about if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan as well though. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield was 7 of 13 for 75 yards last week and the run game posted 164 on the ground, with rookie Nick Chubb leading the way with 53 yards and a TD. The team is now loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Chemistry would seem to be the only thing standing in its way at this point, and I do indeed think it’ll be a contributing detrimental factor working against Cleveland here today as well. The pick: Despite all of the improvements the Browns have made, they still don’t match up well with Eagles and I believe Philadelphia’s depth will in fact be the deciding factor in this Week 3 NFLX preseason contest. Take the points. |
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08-20-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price on Houston and Gerritt Cole. The home side sends the beleaguered Felix Hernandez to the hill. The pitchers: Cole is so far 11-5 with a 2.71 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but overall he’s been much better than Houston could have possibly asked for. While his numbers have slid a little over the last month, he remains consistent and competitive every time he takes the hill. Note that Cole is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA on the road as well. Hernandez is so far 8-11 with a 5.62 ERA. He returns from a short stay in the bullpen after giving up 11 earned runs to the Rangers in his previous start. “The King” has been better at home than on the road this season, but terrible overall and note that he’s just 6-6 with a 5.26 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Hernandez continues to spiral down the proverbial crapper, while I expect Cole and company to step up and take full advantage. Play on Houston on the “run line.”
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: After back-to-back victories to open the pre-season and with the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal next weekend, I think the Ravens have a letdown here and get caught “looking ahead” in this meaningless Week 2 Monday Night contest. Indianapolis though will look to carry over its momentum from a 19-17 road victory in Seattle in its first game in front of the home town crowd. The teams: Ravens’ rookie QB Lamer Jackson was 7 of 18 for 119 yards last week, while also rushing for 21. RB Gus Edwards had 58 yards on 12 carries. Baltimore looked sharp defensively against the Rams’ backups, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time at Lucas Oil Stadium. Colts’ backup QB Jacoby Brissett was 6 of 8 for 35 yards last weekend. Starter Andrew Luck returned and was 6 of 9 for 64 yards. Indianapolis also looked sharp defensively, holding the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Keep your eyes on Hassan Ridgeway, who had two sacks in the victory. The pick: Baltimore may have won ten straight preseason games and covered in nine of those, but I think that run of excellence comes to an end here. Luck will see some time at home and Brissett continues to excel. I’m banking on the home side figuring it out and getting it done. Play on the Colts. |
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08-19-18 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Ryan Borucki and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays face their ex-ace JA Happ and the Yankees in New York on Sunday afternoon and I’m expecting a competitive battle. The pitchers: Borucki is so far 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Tuesday. Note that he’s been solid with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games to this point. Happ is so far 13-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Rays on Tuesday. He’s now 3-0 for the Yankees, giving up four runs over 19 frames of work. The pick: I think it’s worthy to note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine road day games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. I expect this one to be decided late or even in extra frames. Grab the 1.5 runs for the Jays. |
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08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams -3 | Top | 15-19 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off 16-10 home win over Detroit in its opener and I think it goes through the motions today as it gets caught looking ahead to the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” LA on the other hand comes in much more motivated after a humbling 33-7 road loss in Baltimore in Week 1. The teams: Oakland’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it didn’t have to with the defense playing so well. Last year the Raiders were 23rd in the league in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. Slowing down the Lions’ back-ups at home is one thing, but trying to contain a Rams team which led the league in scoring last year (29.9 PPG) is quite another obviously. The ground game was a positive on offense with 147 total yards. It must be noted that starting QB Jared Goff didn’t play in the Week 1 setback for LA, so I’m reading absolutely nothing into the Rams’ inefficiency on the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Allen and Sean Mannion were decent, but not spectacular. The ground game looked decent with 121 yards. The defense looked horrible and clearly the unit will be looking for a better effort with a few more starters in the line-up this time around. The pick: Connor Cook and EJ Manuel looked decent under center for the Raiders against Detroit, but in my opinion they look poised for a step back in this difficult venue. I’m expecting the Rams to come out much more focused on both sides of the ball in this one and their added motivation proves to the be the difference in my opinion. Lay the points. |
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08-17-18 | Cardinals v. Saints -3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with big aspirations collide in Week 2 of the preseason at the Superdome on Friday night. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The teams: Arizona comes in contented after last week’s 24-17 win in which it used a goal line stand as time expired to earn the dramatic victory. QB Josh Rosen was 6 of 13 for 41 yards. Chad Kanoff was 3 of 5 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is expected to see a couple of snaps, but the Cards will be looking ahead to Week 3 here in my opinion after getting the Week 1 victory under their belts. The Saints come in off a win as well, pulling away for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville. QB Tom Savage was 10 of 14 for 70 yards. In all three different players scored rushing touchdowns, including starting RB Mark Ingram. New Orleans’ defense looked sharp as well, as Jayrone Elliot led the way with 2.5 the teams six total sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. I like the Saints to take care of business at home. Lay the points. |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 93 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead. The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards. The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points. |
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08-17-18 | Chiefs v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston. The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score. The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. |
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08-14-18 | Sky v. Lynx -10 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Lynx are 2-1. Minnesota will look to take the season series here against the lowly Sky and get back on track after an 81-72 home loss to Seattle on Sunday. Chicago is simply playing out the season, as it’ll miss the playoffs. The teams: Minnesota clinched a spot in the post-season after back-to-back road wins and it wasn’t able to carry that momentum over in the loss to the Storm. This would be considered its only “cream puff” left to end the season though, with a tough road match up in Connecticut on Friday, followed by a regular-season ending match-up at home against Washington. I think Maya Moore and company come to play today as they take into account their upcoming tougher schedule. The Sky have lost three of their last four. They put up a valiant fight in Connecticut on Sunday, but still came away with the 82-75 setback. Chicago faces another bottom feeder in Indiana in a home and home series over the weekend, so the squad gets caught “looking ahead” here as well in my opinion. The pick: I like Minnesota to come in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points. |
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08-12-18 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s hard to say anything negative about Max Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cubs’ newly acquired starter Cole Hamels can carry over his momentum from his debut for his new team and match his elite counterpart frame for frame. I’m banking on this one being decided late or in extra innings, meaning I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs. The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday. Hamels is so far 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He would give up one run over six innings in a win over Kansas City in his first start for the Cubs on Monday. Over his last 11 innings of work note that he’s given up just one earned run. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 as a home dog in the -125 to -200 range. As I stated off the top, I think this one will be very competitive and that’s the reason why I’m taking the Cubs on the “run line.” |
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08-12-18 | Storm v. Lynx -1 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have already played twice this year and each has won on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I think this trend carries over here. The teams: Seattle comes in off a 100-77 setback at Washington on Thursday and I predict another “letdown” here as well. The Storm will close out the year with two “cream puffs” at home against the Liberty and Wings, so I’m expecting the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Storm are led by Brenna Stewart with 22.2 points and 8.1 boards per game while Sue Bird added 7.3 assister per night. Minnesota comes in off back-to-back victories and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.4 PPG, while Sylvia Fowles adds 11.9 boards. The pick: Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the Storm get caught looking ahead here to their final two games of the season in friendly confines. Play on Minnesota. |
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08-12-18 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He’s been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he’s been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks. Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span. The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he’s quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
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08-11-18 | Fever v. Aces -9.5 | Top | 74-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the “revenge angle” into account when doing my handicapping, I don’t think it’s going to apply here. The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with “heavy legs” as well. Las Vegas has lost five straight and it’ll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don’t play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points. |
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08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX pre-season, I don’t talk about what I think the teams will do over the upcoming campaign, or what they did over the off-season. If you want to get up to date information about that, there are plenty of other better places to do that. I’m here to simply let you know why this team of back-ups and wanna-be’s is going to win this meaningless Week 1 NFLX contest. In Week 2, I’ll touch on what each side did in Week 1. Reasoning: Kirk Cousins comes over to Minnesota, but he’ll see limited to no time here. He’s working under a new offensive co-ordinator anyways, so immediate success seems a stretch at this point to me. The Vikes’ strength last year was on the defensive side, but none of the starters is expected to suit up today. Even though it’s Week 1 of the pre-season, I think this one “means” a lot more to the Broncos. Case Keenum is the new man under center for Denver after a better than expected job in Minnesota. Denver is admittedly a work in process, but this is Week 1 of the pre-season. I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX season, I don’t give out season previews/predictions or give an update of what team’s did over the offseason. In Week 1 I simply give out a reason on why I think the back-ups and wannabe’s will win this contest. Reasoning: The Lions will be playing backup Jake Rudock in this one. He completed 37 of 56 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in the pre-season last year. This is a big game for Oakland’s new coach Jon Gruden, who has blown up a lot of his team after last year’s disappointing season. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four against the Raiders and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright, straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. |
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08-10-18 | Sun v. Sky +10 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Sky after Connecticut hammered them 110-72 on their own floor earlier in the season. It’s also the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. While I’m not predicting an outright victory, I do think that the Sun will “look past” their lowly opponent today and I like the Sky to sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. The teams: The Sun are primed for a letdown after clinching a playoff spot with a victory over the Wings on Wednesday. It was Connecticut’s fifth straight victory. The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 14.4 points, while Jasmine Thomas added 4.6 assists. The Sky won’t be playing in the post-season, but they won’t be going down without a fight here after back-to-back losses. Chicago is led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 8.4 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Connecticut is already just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a three-games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS In its last four in trying to revenge an “in season” setback to an opponent. Grab the points, play on the Sky. |
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08-09-18 | Lynx -3 v. Aces | Top | 89-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this season already and each has won on the others floor. I think that trend continues here, as I like Minnesota to at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. The teams: Minnesota broke a three-game slide with a victory at Chicago on Tuesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.8 points per game, with Danielle Robinson adding 3.4 assists. Sylvia Fowles leads the nightly charge on the glass with 11.6 boards. Las Vegas has lost three straight, most recently getting hammered 109-100 at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.4 points and 8.3 boards per game, while Kelsey Plum adds 3.9 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its last contest, while Las Vegas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU losses. Play on the Lynx |
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08-09-18 | Colts +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
incorrectly entered play. please disregard. |
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08-09-18 | Panthers v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Buffalo has three QB’s who are all fighting for the No. 1 QB position in the preseason (AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen.) Buffalo improved itself on defense in the offseason as well. Carolina has injuries to its defense though including Julius Peppers and Ross Cockrell. Lay the points. |
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08-09-18 | Steelers +3 v. Eagles | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Philadelphia won the Super Bowl and it’ll be out to prove the pundits wrong that it was a “fluke.” But Pittsburgh has a lot to prove as well this season. This is a big year for both teams, but this is a truly meaningless contest to open the preseason for each. Look for a spirited battle between these two in-state rivals and grab as many points as you can. |
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08-09-18 | Bears v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: The Bears fought valiantly in the Hall Of Fame Game last Thursday and while they covered for bettors, they came up short in the end. They’ll be feeling pretty good about that effort, but I think the back-to-back road games aren’t doing them any favors this week. The Bengals were a disaster last year and this is a make or break campaign for many involved in the organization. Even though it’s the back-ups and wannabe’s for the most part playing tonight, clearly the team will be out to leave a good impression in front of the home town crowd to kick off the 2018/19 season. Note as well that Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Lay the points. |
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08-08-18 | Sparks v. Liberty +8.5 | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year and each has won its home floor. New York took the first game 81-75, before LA won 80-54 in the the most recent. I think this trend carries over in this one as I like the Liberty to battle tough and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The teams: After back-to-back wins and with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, this one sets up as a classic “look-ahead” spot for the visitors in my professional opinion. LA is led by Candace Parker with 18.1 points and 7.9 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.4 assists. No need to question New York’s focus today after seven straight losses, most recently a 96-80 setback to Seattle. The Liberty don’t play again until Sunday either, so I’m fully expecting a concerted effort here from the home side in this one. New York is led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after six or more SU losses. Desperation leads the Liberty to a solid cover on Wednesday. |
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08-06-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I like Matt Boyd and the Tigers to battle tough and to keep this one close enough to at the very least, escape with a cover with the extra 1.5 runs. The home side sends Nick Tropeano to the hill. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 6-9 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Over his last 19 frames of work he’s allowed just three earned runs. Tropeano is so far 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Tropeano labored from the start by throwing only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes. The pick: Tropeano has been a disaster at home as well with the 1-3, 5.46 ERA record this season. I think Boyd carries over his considerable momentum here, while recent form displayed by Tropeano points to another long night for the right-hander. Play on the Tigers on the “run line.” |
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08-06-18 | Storm v. Liberty +9 | Top | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for New York after it fell 77-62 to the Storm at home earlier in the season. Seattle though comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight victories, while also getting caught “looking ahead” to its game at Indiana tomorrow afternoon. New York though will be taking nothing for granted after six straight losses. The teams: Seattle is led by Breanna Stewart with 22.5 points and 8.1 boards per game, while Sue Bird adds 7.4 assists. The Liberty are led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game, while Brittany Boyd adds 5.3 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is 7-3 in its last ten after four or more consecutive SU losses. No need to over think this one, as I think a revenge minded and determined Liberty team catches the Storm “off guard.” Play on New York. |
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08-05-18 | Dream +5 v. Lynx | Top | 86-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: They Lynx come in off an 85-75 setback at Seattle on Friday night and I think they’re primed for another letdown here as well. These teams have played each other twice this year and so far they’re 1-1. The teams: Atlanta has won nine of its last ten, most recently an 89-74 victory at home over Chicago on Friday. The Dream are led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 points, while Renee Montgomery averages 3.4 assists. Jessica Breland leads the nightly charge on the glass with 8.1 boards per game. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.4 PPG, while Danielle Robison directs the point with 3.2 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way on the glass with 11.7 boards per game. The pick: The Lynx return home after losing two straight on the road. Minnesota is struggling to find offensive consistency right now and I think the Dream can smell the blood in the water. I look for Atlanta to leave town with a comfortable ATS cover tonight. |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Smith is so far 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Smith has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. To go along with his poor ERA, note that he also owns a shoddy 1.50 WHIP. Berrios is so far 10-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Over 139 frames of work this year Berrios owns the 3.56 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, while also amassing 142 strikeouts. The pick: Berrios has been “lights out” at home as well with a 7-2, 2.99 ERA record. Smith is in over his head here. Berrios has been far from perfect this season, but he’ll be feeling confident in friendly confines and that makes this a price that I can live with paying. Lay the price, play on the Twins. |
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08-02-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Sparks are 2-1. LA won 77-76 in Minnesota in the first one, 77-69 at home in the second one, before then falling 83-72 in Minnesota in the latest on July 5th. Minnesota has won three straight and with a tough one on the road in Seattle tomorrow night, the Lynx get caught looking ahead here in my opinion. The Sparks on the other hand have lost two of three and have had a night off to absorb an 81-71 loss to the Dream on Tuesday. The teams: The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.2 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the point with 3.3 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the glass with 11.7 board a game. The Sparks are led by Candace Parker with 18 PPG, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.3 assists per night. Parker also leads the rebound department with 7.5 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is already just 5-8 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is already 6-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on the Sparks. |
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08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played on Thursday, August 2nd at 8:00 PM EST at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who comes over as the former offensive coordinator of the KC Chiefs. Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in three years and if Joe Flacco can’t step up, surely there’s going to be some major changes upcoming for the Ravens. The teams: We’re going to see a battle for backup QB in Chicago during the preseason between Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, with Mitchell Trubisky having already secured the starters position. There’s talent at receiver as well in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. Baltimore used its No. 1 draft pick to grab QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also have Robert Griffin III as another backup. The Ravens also have a lot of new faces in the receiver position, including Michael Crabtree and Willie Sneed. The defense should be a strength of the team, but don’t expect to see any starters playing on Opening night. The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call every position on every line on both sides of the ball a “wash” in this game, except at QB, which we’ll look at here subjectively. If this was Trubisky going against Flacco, we’d look at this one differently, but the experience that the Ravens’ backup QB’s bring to the table will turn out to be the difference in my opinion. Daniel and Bray lack experience, while RG III and the gifted Lamar Jackson clearly have the advantage in that department. And for me, that’s the difference make in this matchup. Play on Baltimore. |
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08-01-18 | Mercury +1.5 v. Aces | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played each other three times this year and so far Phoenix has gone 2-1, winning 72-66 in the first first one, 92-80 on the road in the second one, before then falling 85-82 in the most recent at home back on the 19th. The teams: The Mercury are the deeper and more experienced team led by Diana Taurasi with 20.3 PPG, She also leads the team in assists with 4.8 per night. It’s Brittney Griner though who controls the glass with 7.2 per game. The Aces are led by 20 points a night by A’ ja Wilson, while Kelsey Plum directs the show with 3.4 assists per game. Wilson also leads the charge on the glass with 8.6 per night. The pick: The Aces come in off back-to-back wins and have a date in the Nation’s capital on Friday night. I think the home side comes in complacent gets caught “looking ahead” here. Phoenix on the other hand comes in desperate this week. After its game against Seattle at home on Tuesday night, I think the Phoenix will catch Las Vegas off guard on Wednesday. Grab the points, play on the Mercury. |
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07-29-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors send ace Jose Berrios to the hill, while the home side goes with the newly acquired Nate Eovaldi. The pitchers: Berrios is so far 10-7 with a 3.48 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings while striking out nine in a win over the Jays on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that he also owns a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 136 strikeouts over 134.1 frames of work. Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Over ten starts for Tampa this season he’s posted a 4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53 strikeouts over 57 frames of work. The pick: Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his limited time this season and he certainly draws a tough matchup in his first start for his new team. Berrios on the other hand is getting stronger as the season has progressed and I look for that trend to carry over here. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs. |
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07-28-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road. Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he’s 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line. |
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07-27-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
analysis soonThe set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the Diamondbacks on the “run-line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Luis Perdomo. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 and walking one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Note that it was the sixth straight start in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs. Perdomo is so far 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Perdomo is so far 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA at home this year. The pick: Perdomo has shown nothing whatsoever to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” and regain his form. In fact, the right-hander will likely be moved back to the bullpen shortly when others become healthy. Greinke on the other hand has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and I look for that trend to carry over here with another dominant performance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the “run line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I’ll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings. Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he’s posted 18 strikeouts in the process. The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally “found his groove” and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | Twins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work. Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories. The pick: Lynn’s been a disaster overall this season and he’s seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It’s been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the “run line.” |
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07-25-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The talent gap on the mound is big. Their is also a big discrepancy at the plate as well. Both those factors combine to make the home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs. The pitchers: Shields is so far 4-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Shields earned a loss in his first start back after the break, giving up two runs over seven innings in a setback to the Mariners on Friday. Shields has been on a decent run of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA on the road. Skaggs is so far 7-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Skaggs gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Over his last seven trips to the hill he’s posted six quality efforts and to go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports a 1.22 WHIP and impressive 106:31 K/BB over 104 innings this season The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 6-16 (-4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 7-1 (+5.1 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Angels. |
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07-24-18 | Dream +4 v. Sparks | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for the Dream after they fell 72-64 in LA earlier in the season. This is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league. It also features two of the best players in Tiffany Hayes and Candace Parker. The teams: The Dream are 15-9 and in second place. They’ll be eager to avenge the earlier loss and to stay ahead of the No. 3 Sparks. Atlanta comes in on top form, having won seven straight, while LA has been shaky with a 4-6 record over its last ten. Atlanta most recently layed the smack down in Seattle with an 87-74 win. Elizabeth Williams had 17 points for the Dream in that one.. The Sparks got back on track with a win over the Chicago Sky in their latest action. Parker had 19 points in that one, while Nneka Ogwumike had 18 points and 11 boards. The pick: As mentioned off the top, this is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league, as the Sparks allow 77.4 PPG, while the Dream allow 78.9. But LA has struggled with offensive consistency over the last month, while Atlanta is surging right now, playing with complete chemistry. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the visitors tonight. Play on Atlanta. |
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07-24-18 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a very fair trade off (laying the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs.) The visitors go with Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The teams: Buchholz is so far 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He landed on the ten-day DL prior to the All Star Game, but he’s been given the green light to proceed with his bounce back season, coming into this one with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 31:7 K/BB over 38.2 innings. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Hendricks opened the second half with a no-decision against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. So far he’s already been shelled for a career-high 18 homers this season and note that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on Arizona on the “run line.” |
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07-23-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 7-0 | Push | 0 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh won big in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, while the Indians were on the road in Texas. Clearly Cleveland has the advantage on the mound with ace Corey Kluber, but I think the Pirates can carry their momentum over from yesterday’s convincing victory and keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the spread once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Williams is so far 7-7 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d go five scoreless against the Nationals. I think Williams benefits here in the AL format and also with the extra time off because of the break. Kluber is so far 12-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Kluber was forced to miss the All Star game because of an injection in his knee. Kluber was then shut-down for a week, but he’s been cleared to go here. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Pittsburgh is a red hot 10-2 (+6.8 units) this year in all inter-league games, while Cleveland is just 18-25 (-14.9 units) against clubs with winning records. Look for the Bucs to keep the good times rolling with a competitive effort in the opener of this inter-league series, but grab the extra run-and-a-half as insurance. |
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07-21-18 | Winnipeg -2 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos. The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games. The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers. |
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