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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-18 | Pelicans -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies opened the 2017-18 season at FedExForum, with Mike Conley leading the Grizzlies to a 103-91 win with 27 points. The two teams reunite in the same venue Wednesday night but both teams look very different from when they last squared off back on Oct. 18. Memphis, which has made the playoffs each of the past seven years, opened the season 7-4, but the Grizzlies lost Conley (17.1 & 4.1 APG) to an Achilles injury two games later and have since plummeted to near the bottom of the Western Conference at 12-27. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, who have reached the postseason just once in the last six seasons, struggled offensively early on, scoring 100 or more points just four times in their first 10 games. However, they have the Cousins (25.8 & 12.5) and Davis (25.8 & 10.3) duo for an entire season this year and when veteran PG Rajon Rondo made his season debut on Nov. 13, New Orleans' offense has come together and the Pelicans currently sit at 20-19, which would give them the West's final playoff spot (No. 8 seed) if the playoffs would begin tomorrow. New Orleans: The Pelicans are used to dealing with injury scares related to Anthony Davis and they are likely to be without him tonight. Davis left Monday's 112-109 win over the Detroit Pistons with an ankle injury and is considered doubtful. Davis missed five of the first 39 games with various injuries and watched his team go 3-2 without him. However, his latest injury doesn't appear to be something that will keep him out an extended period. "We've done it, and we've won games without him," New Orleans head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters of Davis, who had x-rays come back negative. "That gives the team confidence right there. Obviously, we would rather have him in the game, but if he goes out, I think it's great that our guys can maintain what we were trying to do, and even lose a lead, execute at the end of the game and be able to win a close game." New Orleans is confident it can win without Davis because it has another double-double machine on the inside in DeMarcus Cousins, who scored 16 of his 20 points after Davis' injury on Monday and added 10 rebounds for his sixth consecutive double-double. That improved offense I was talking about earlier is "for real." The Pelicans are averaging 110.8 PPG (4th) on 49.0% shooting (2nd). Memphis: The Grizzlies sure aren't about to feel sorry for any team going through injury problems after their season went off the rails when Conley, went down nearly two months ago with an Achilles issue. Memphis is 5-22 without Conley in the lineup and has been off since Friday, after dropping the opener of the two-game homestand 102-100 to the Washington Wizards. Memphis has its own star big man in center Marc Gasol (18.3 & 8.5) but he is carrying a much heavier load with Conley out. He says he likes the challenge but the bottom line is, he just doesn't have much help. The exception is swingman Tyreke Evans, who is averaging 25.3 points over the last eight games. That surge has him taking over the team lead in scoring at 19.7 PPG, while adding 5.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists.That said, no other player scores in double digits and the team averages only 98.9 PPG (29th) on 44.5% shooting (26th). The pick: Memphis has beaten New Orleans in eight of its last 10 meetings but this Memphis team now owns the West's worst record and only the 11-30 Hawks own a worse record in the entire NBA than the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are long gone from the playoff discussion in the West, looking ahead instead to the draft lottery, as Conley has no timetable for a return. Meanwhile, when New Orleans PG Rajon Rondo is on the court, the Pelicans offense is 4.6 points per 100 possessions better. Make New Orleans a 10* play. |
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01-10-18 | Northern Iowa +1.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-8 Northern Iowa Panthers will travel to the Hulman Center in Terre Haute to take on the 7-9 Indiana State Sycamores this Wednesday night in MVC action. For UNI, back-to-back second round NCAA appearances (in 2015 and 2016) seem 'light years' away right now, after the Panthers went 14-16 last season and have opened the current season 8-8. As for Indiana State, the Sycamores came into the current season off 15, 15 and 11-win win seasons, so this yerars 7-9 start (2-2 in MVC play), is "business as usual." Northern Iowa: Making the Panthers' 8-8 record much worse than .500 is the fact that they have lost six in a row, including opening MVC play at 0-4. Northern Iowa held a 48-45 lead late in the 2nd half in its most recent game against Loyola-Chicago but struggled offensively down the stretch and allowed the Ramblers to come away with a 56-50 victory last Saturday, after the Panthers scored just two points over the final 4:30 of regulation. Leading the way for the Panthers was 6-10 senior Bennett Koch who had 17 points, nine rebounds and five blocks. Koch (13.9 & 6.8) is the lone UNI player averaging in double digits and the team averages only 64.6 PPG (336th) on 41.8% shooting (301st). Indiana State: The Sycamores lost 75-72 this past Saturday against Drake. Indiana State struggled offensively in the first half and although the Sycamores fought back, they couldn’t overcome the 39-29 lead Drake entered halftime with. Indiana State allowed Drake to shoot 53.1% from the floor, which is unacceptable. Leading the way for the Sycamores was guard Brenton Scott who had 25 points and seven steals. This is a guard-oriented team, with the team's top-four scorers all playing on the perimeter. PG Barnes leads in scoring (16.5) and assists (4.3), followed by Scott (14.8 & 5.2), Davis (10.4 & 5.2) and Key (8.2). Murphy is an undersized 6-7 center (7.9 & 4.2) and the best frontcourt contributor. Indiana State averages 74.1 PPG but also allows 73.5 points. The pick: Not used to seeing Northern Iowa on a six-game slide and note that despite its woes, the Panthers are an excellent defensive team, holding opponents to 60.8 PPG (7th) on 38.2% shooting (13th). Take Northern Iowa and the points as a 10* play. |
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01-09-18 | Tennessee -2 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tennessee Vols are 10-4 on the season. They dropped their first two SEC games but a 76-65 home win over Kentucky kept them in the AP's latest poll at No. 24. The Vols travel to Nashville on Tuesday to face the 6-9 Vanderbilt Commodores, who have also dropped two of their first three league contests, after falling 71-60 Saturday at South Carolina. Vanderbilt knocked off Alabama with strong three-point shooting last Tuesday,but finished just 8-for-29 from three-point range and were hindered by turnovers and charging fouls in the defeat to the Gamecocks. “If we erase four of those charges and kick it out for 3’s, it could have been a much different ending to the game, a lot tighter,” Vanderbilt coach Bryce Drew told the media afterward. Tennessee: Rick Barnes had publicly challenged his team last week regarding its lack of "toughness" but the Vols rallied from eight points down at halftime to beat Kentucky by double digits. “We showed toughness,” 6-5 Tennessee forward Admiral Schofield (12.9 & 5.6) told reporters after scoring 20 points with nine rebounds against Kentucky. “It’s time to get that back. I think we are the hardest-playing team in the country, and we’ve just got to go out and show it.” 6-7 forward Grant Williams (15.8 & 6.8) provided a huge boost against the Wildcats, scoring 16 of his 18 points after halftime and finishing with eight rebounds. Guards Bowden (10.5), Turner (9.9), Bone (9.0 & 3.4 APG) and Daniel (6.9 & 3.7 APG) plus the 6-11 Alexander (5.6), join top scorers Williams and Schofield in getting 20 minutes-plus per game. Tennessee leads the SEC and ranks 18th nationally in assists per game (17.9), finishing Saturday with 23 assists on 25 made field goals. Vanderbilt; The 6-6 Roberson (14.5 & 8.1) is the 'Dores best player, supported by a trio of guards including the 6-5 Fisher-Davis (12.3 & 5.3), LaChance (10.9) and freshman Lee (10.5), who scored a team-high 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting from the floor against South Carolina and is averaging 17.7 points through three SEC games. However, the Commodores are last in the SEC in shooting from the floor (40.9 percent) and scoring (71.0 points per game). The pick: These in-state rivals meet Tuesday night in Memorial Gymnasium. Tennessee leads the series 118-75 and the Vols have had their share of success in Memorial\ Gym. Starting with Vandy's 72-69 win in 2007-08 over then then-top-ranked Tennessee, the teams have alternated wins each season at Vanderbilt, including Tennessee's 87-75 upset last year. The Vols' strength is in their balance. Seven players average 20 minutes or more, and five average nine points or more (see above). Why not take teh road team here? Vanderbilt is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors -5 | Top | 90-89 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-08-18 | Rockets -5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Bulls went a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS when Nikola Mirotic returned to the court and won 10 of the first 12 games in which he played. However, the Bulls have dropped four of their last five games, although only Saturday's 125-86 loss at Indiana was non-competitive. The Bulls will try to put that ugly loss behind them when they welcome the Houston Rockets to the United Center on Monday. Things have not gone well for the Rockets lately, as their Saturday 108-101 loss at Detroit in the opener of a two-game trip was the team's seventh time in its last nine games. Houston was once 25-4 but now checks in at 27-11. In contrast, after opening 3-20, the Bulls are now 14-26. Houston: "I don't know if we're a tired team or what, but even starting the game our offense flowed," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "But, you're only up six and I didn't think the intensity on defense was there and sometimes that caused some tired legs or whatever. So, we've got to regroup and get ready for the next game." The Rockets owned the NBA's best record before their recent slump and shot just 42.2 percent from the floor in Saturday's loss. "We just couldn't get in the flow of knocking down shots," shooting guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "I thought we battled pretty hard, but when you're not knocking down shots, it's kind of tough." Making it harder to knock down shots and loosen up opposing defenses is the absence of James Harden (32.3-5.0-9.1), who sat out the last two games and reportedly could miss up to six weeks due to a hamstring strain. Gordon (19.5), Chris Paul (17.2-5.4-9.3) and the recently signed Gerald Green (16.5 in six games) will need to make up the slack. Can they? Chicago: With Mirotic back and leading the team in scoring at 17.4 PPG in his 17 games), Chicago averaged 111.3 points in 16 games prior to Saturday, when it shot 37.5 percent from the floor and was out of the game after totaling 37 points in the first half. Second-year point guard Kris Dunn is trying to become a consistent scoring threat but followed up a career-high 32-point outburst in Friday's win at Dallas with eight points on 4-of-10 shooting in 28 minutes against the Pacers. Still, Dunn (13.7-4.7-6.2) looks like he's going to be a good player and 7-0 rookie Laurie Markkanen (14.9 & 7.5) just may be the league's best 'freshman.' The pick: Is Chicago falling back to earth after its recent surge? We also need to find out just how well the Rockets can function with Chris Paul running the offense. However, Houston's recent slide has more to do with its struggles, defensively. Houston was allowing 110.9 points per 100 possessions,(26th in the league) in the last 10 games thru Jan. 3). All the above noted, Houston is still a significantly better team than the Bulls and Green has done all (and more) than Houston good have expected, shooting 50.8% from the floor, including 51.0% from three-point range. Center Capela is a double-double man now (14.2 & 11.) and I'll lay the short price with Houston. Make the Rockets a 10* play. |
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01-07-18 | Jazz v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Heat opened 11-30 last season and despite a 30-11 mark the remainder of the way to finish 41-41, the Heat missed the postseason field by losing a tie-breaker to the 41-41 Bulls. Miami matched its longest winning streak of the season by beating the New York Knicks in overtime for a third consecutive triumph on Friday, giving Miami a 21-17 record which puts them in much better position as the current season nears its mid-point. The Heat will try to keep rolling on Sunday when they host the slumping Utah Jazz, who have lost 12 of their last 15 games to fall to 16-23, leaving them in 10th-place in the West, 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. Utah: The Jazz got off to a promising start but the team has unraveled, quickly. It hasn't helped that 7-foot center Rudy Gobert )11.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks) has been out with a left knee injury since Dec. 15. He should return later this month but without Gobert, 6-10, 265-pound power forward Derrick Favors has slid to the center spot and Utah is diminished on the boards and in terms of shot-blocking. Favors is averaging 12.6 & 6.8 but just 0.9 blocks. Backup center Ekpe Udoh doesn't get much playing time, averaging 2.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks. The bright spot continues to be rookie guard Donovan Mitchell (18.2-3.3-3.4), who is averaging 22.6 points since the beginning of December. Miami: The Heat have opened up their offense in the team's current winning streak, averaging 111.7 PPG (season average is 100.8 PPG, which ranks 28th). Shooting guard Wayne Ellington hoisted up a franchise-record 16 3-point attempts (made six) on Friday and finished with a team-high 24 points. Ellington averages 10.5 PPG and is shooting 41.5 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The Heat have finally settled into a groove and currently sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. "We're definitely heading in the right direction," Heat power forward Kelly Olynyk (10.5 & 6.0) said. "We're getting bodies back (from the injured list). We're playing together and playing hard. You can see the chemistry is starting to come together." The pick: Olynyk's remark about injured players is true, as center Hassan Whiteside (14.0 & 11.6 in 20 games) recently returned to the lineup. Reserve forward James Johnson (10.7-5.0-4.0) is also back, and point guard Goran Dragic (16.7-4.1-4.8) is getting better from a nagging elbow injury. Utah opened is four-game road trip with a 99-91 loss at Denver on Friday, as the the defense fell apart during a third quarter in which it was outscored 38-16. The Jazz are now 3-16 SU (6-13 ATS) on the road and it doesn't figure to get any better, here. Make Miami a 10* play. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-7 Buffalo Bills visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Wild Card matchup in Sunday's first game. I doubt there is anyone not aware that the Bills will be making their first postseason appearance since 1999, ending the longest playoff drought in the NFL, as well as in all four major sports. The last time the Bills made the playoffs the team became victim of "The Music City Miracle." Google this if you need a refresher. Buffalo ended its playoff drought by benefiting from a minor miracle of its own, when the Bengals beat the Ravens by connecting on a 49-yard TD pass with 44 seconds remaining, on a 4th-and-12 play last Sunday! The 10-6 Jacksonville Jaguars will be making their first playoff appearance since 2007, with their first AFC South championship and speaking of 1999, the team's first division title since that 1999 season. The Jags' playoff drought was just nine seasons but entered this season without a single winning season in the span. In fact, the Jags opened the 2017 season with a pathetic 22-74 (.229) record the previous six seasons. Buffalo: It's safe to say the Bills are hardly "all in" on QB Tyrod Taylor (see the Nathan Petrerman 'experiment') but h'es completing 62.6% with 14 TDs and just four INTs (in 420 attempts). He can extend plays with his mobility and has run for 427 yards (5.1 YPC) but Buffalo ranks 31st in passing yards at 176.6 per game. LeSean McCoy rushed for 1,138 yards and a team-high six rushing touchdowns plus was also the team's leading pass-catcher with 59 receptions. Buffalo ranks sixth in rushing yards at 126.14 YPG but that's down almost 40 YPG from 2016, when the team led the NFL with 164.4 YPG on the ground. Buffalo's D is no better than average, allowing 22.4 PPG (18th). Jacksonville: Blake Bortles was almost replaced as the team's starting QB in the preseason but the Jags really had no "Plan B." The former UCF star had a solid season, keeping his TOs to a minimum (21-13 ratio) and benefiting from the NFL's No. 1 ground game. The Jags average 141.4 YPG, led by rookie Leonard Fournette (1,040 yards and 9 TDs but just 3.9 YPC). Marqise Lee led the team with 56 catches but he has an ankle issue and no other player has as many as 45 catches. The Jacksonville offense kept putting its defense in trouble last season but that all changed ion 2017. The Jags' D is the reason this team went 10-4 to clinch its playoff berth. The Jags did lose their final two games but the defense still ended the regular season second in both scoring D (16.8 PPG) and total D (286.1 YPG). The pick: The Jacksonville Pass D has been terrific, holding opposing QBs to 56.8% completions and a QB rating of just 68.5 (No. 1 in both categories). The Jags' 55 sacks rank second to only Pittsburgh's 56. Taylor will surely be tested but his counterpart, the Jags' Bortles, is coming off back-to-back games (both losses) in which he threw five INTs, after throwing just eight in the team's 10-4 start. Then there is RB Leonard Fournette, who has only 300 yards rushing on 3.2 YPC over his last four games. Getting back to Buffalo QB Taylor, I may like him more than Buffalo's management does. Expect him to be able improvise and extend plays vs. the Jacksonville pass rushers. Taylor is playing the best football of his career right now, having completed 57 of 94 for 709 yards & two TD passes and no interceptions over the last three games. As for the Buffalo D, it has been strong the last six weeks, except in two games against the Pats and Tom Brady. In the four games against teams NOT led by Brady, Buffalo has allowed just 12.3 PPG. Anyone think Bortles resembles Brady in any way shape or form. Make Buffalo a 10* play. |
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01-07-18 | Davidson -4 v. George Mason | Top | 86-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Bob McKillop has had some career at Davidson. He's currently in his 29th season and has led the Wildcats to eight NCAA berths, including the school's memorable 2008 run to the Elite 8 (ever heard of Steph Curry?). However, last year's team was a disappointing 17-15, coming off five 20-win seasons, including three NCAA berths. However, Davidson lost only one starter from last season, so this year's 6-7 start is a big disappointment. The Wildcats will visit EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, Va. on Sunday to take on the George Mason Patriots, who also check in under .500 at 7-8. Davidson: The Wildcats have won two of their last three and will square off against GMU with pretty much a "three-man team." The 6-7 Ekwu hasn't played this season and the 6-10 Kovacevic went down with an injury in early Dec. The 6-7 Aldridge (21.1 & 6.9) has been excellent, as has freshman guard Grady (15.7). However, the only other player averaging more than 6.2 PPG is sophomore guard Jon Axel Gudmundson (13.7-6.1-5.0). George Mason: The Patriots' glory days are long gone, although GMU did go 20-14 last year, after winning 11, nine and 11 games the previous three seasons. The Patriots' five starters all play about 27-plus minutes with four in double figures. Guard Livingston (15.5 & 4.4 APG) leads the way, joined on the perimeter by Grayer (13.9 & 7.5) and Kier (11.9 & 4.5). The 6-7 Mar (11.9 & 4.4) joins that trio in double digits. The pick: Both teams have been disappointments but I'll take Davidson's "pedigree." GMU has been a poor pointspread team for awhile, going just 19-42-2 ATS in the team's last 63 games following an ATS win. GMU is just 1-5 ATS in the team's last six games overall and 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. Make Davidson a 10* play. |
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01-06-18 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 21-17 Denver Nuggets are gaining confidence by winning five of their last seven games. Sure it's too early to be looking at one's playoff positioning "too hard," but the Nuggets do currently own the West's No. 6 seed and find themselves 3 1/2 games clear of the West's playoff 'cut line.' Again, it may be too early to write any team off, but the Kings have dropped five of their last six games and allowed a season worst for points in Tuesday's 131-111 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Sacramento enters this contest 12-25 and the team is already seven games out of the West's final playoff berth with four teams in between them and that final spot (that means five teams to climb over!). Denver: The Nuggets have rarely been known for their defense but the team's current 5-2 run began with them allowing an average of 83 points during a three-game winning streak that included an epic effort while holding the potent Golden State Warriors to just 81. Denver's defense was also at its best in the third quarter of Friday's game when the club outscored the Jazz 38-16 to take a 19-point lead into the final quarter. Third-year forward Trey Lyles scored a career-best 26 points against his former teammates on Friday and has suddenly scored in double digits in 12 of the past 13 games. Lyles (10.2 & 4.8) was given a larger role after All-Star power forward Paul Millsap suffered a wrist injury and his latest performance included four 3-pointers as well as seven rebounds. Guards Harris (16.5) and Murray (16.0) are the team's top scorers but the team's most important player, especially with Millsap sidelined, is 6-10 center Jokic (15.9 & 10.2). Jokic had a rare off night Friday, scoring just eight points on 3-of-13 shooting, to end a string of nine straight double-digit efforts. Sacramento: About the only good news in Friday's 20-point loss to the Hornets was that rookie PG De'Aaron Fox (quadriceps) returned from a six-game absence to score 17 points. PF Zach Randolph (15.4 & 6.9) has been the Kings' best player this season and he recorded 24 points and 10 rebounds versus Charlotte, but it was his first double-double since Dec. 10. Buddy Hield was the key piece in Sacramento's trade of Cousins to the Pelicans but while he's connecting on 45.5% from three-point range, the Kings must have been expecting him to score more than the 10.6 PPG he's averaged so far. Getting back to rookie PG Fox, he's averaging a modest 9.7 PPG (in about 25 minutes per) but more troubling is his 40.3 FG percentage, including 28.6 from three-point range (remind you of Lonzo Ball?). The pick: The Nuggets have won this season's first two meetings by an average of 16.5 PPG, extendng their winning streak over the Kings to four in a row. Sacramento's defense was horrid in the loss to Charlotte as it allowed the Hornets to shoot 57.3 percent from the floor, including 15-of-32 from three-point range. "It has me speechless, there's nothing to say," guard Garrett Temple told reporters. "We have to guard. We have to man up and play defense, defend guys. ... I don't care how young we are, we have to defend." The Kings are allowing an average of 118.7 PPG over the past three games (all losses) and I see no reason for them to get things turned around here vs. a Denver team which seems to be jelling (10-2 ATS run!). Make Denver a 10* play. |
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01-06-18 | Duke -11 v. NC State | Top | 85-96 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The No. 2 Blue Devils (13-1, 1-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) have played just twice since their Dec. 9 loss at Boston College. They've won each of those home games, first against Evansville and then 100-93 vs. No. 24 Florida State last Saturday. "That was an amazing game, because both teams played great,” Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters after his team survived allowing 15 makes from three-point range by FSU and missing 11 of its own 25 free throws. “We couldn’t stop each other. And the will to win and will to score was evidence by both teams. For us to win that game, is sensational for our group of four freshmen.” Duke travels to play the 10-5 Wolfpack at PNC Arena, where N.C. State will be making its ACC home debut under first-year coach Kevin Keatts. The Wolfpack opened with two ACC road games for the first time in a decade, falling to Clemson and Notre Dame in lopsided results. Duke: Marvin Bagley III continues his outstanding freshman season as the 6-11 forward is making 63.0 percent of his FG attempts with 11 double-doubles while averaging 21.9 points and 11.6 rebounds. Senior guard Grayson Allen scored 22 against Florida State and has connected on 41 of 94 attempts from three-point range overall (43.6%), averaging 17.4 points and dishing out 4.4 assists per contest. Freshman forward Wendell Carter Jr. (6-10) is shooting 61 percent from the floor overall and averaging 13.7 points (16.5 over the last four contests) along with 8.9 rebounds. Rounding out Coach K's "Fab 4 Freshmen" are Gary Trent Jr. (13.0 & 4.5) and Trevon Duval (12.0 & 6.6 APG). Duke is the nation's second-highest scoring team (94.5 PPG) and is shooting 51.3% as a team (9th). N.C. State: The Wolfpack hardly looked ready for prime time in losing their first two ACC games. They averaged just 60.0 PPG in losing to Clemson and Notre Dame, while allowing 83.0 PPG. “I just try to tell my team to not keep their heads down,” senior forward Abdul-Malik Abu told the Raleigh News & Observer. “There are a lot more coming. There are a lot more teams. This is not the end of the world, but it’s not a good feeling at the same time.”Senior guard Allerik Freeman leads a normally productive offense (82.5 PPG ranks 43rd) while averaging 15.3 points and junior backcourt mate Torin Dorn is second on the team in scoring with 13.2 PPG plus a team-high 7.6 RPG. The 6-8 Lennard Freeman (11.6 & 5.3) plus 7-0 center Omer Yurtseven (11.4 & 8.7) are both in double digits, as is guard Beverly (10.2). PG Johnson chips in 8.7 PPG and a team-leading 6.6 APG. The pick: Duke has been off since beating FSU last Saturday and the week off will help with four games in the next 10 days, including trips to Pittsburgh and Miami (Fla.. The Blue Devils' offense was hitting on all cylinders vs. FSU and "The Pack" will have Coach K’s full attention after the Wolfpack's 84-82 upset win at Cameron Indoor last season. N.C. State seems doomed to be a doormat in the 'loaded' ACC this season. Lay the points and make Duke a 10* play. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Not many are unaware that the Atlanta Falcons led the New Patriots 28-3 in last year's Super Bowl before a monumental collapse led to the Patriots winning 34-28 in OT. No one knew quite what to expect from the Falcons in 2017 but it was hardly surprise that the team struggled throughout the entire regular season.. In fact, the Falcons were forced into a "must win" situation in Week 17 of this year in order to qualify for the NFC's final playoff berth as the No. 6 seed. The 10-6 Falcons will begin their quest to return to the Super Bowl as the NFC's representative this Saturday night in Los Angeles, when they face the 11-5 Rams, who won the NFC West. The Rams have been one of NFL 2017's biggest surprises, going from 4-12 in 2016 to 11-5 in 2017. The Rams are in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, after winning their first NFC West crown since 2003. Atlanta: The Falcons reached the playoffs in the last week of the season with a 22-10 home win over Carolina (actually, Atlanta didn't actually need to win, as Seattle lost at home to Arizona). Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a TD on 28 of 45 passing but for the year, came nowhere his MVP numbers of 2016. Ryan threw for 4,095 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs, compiling a 91.4 QB rating this season. However, he just missed throwing for 5,000 yards in 2016 (4,944), while throwing 38 TDs against just seven INTs (117.1 QB rating). Freeman and Coleman were once again a very good RB tandem plus Julio Jones (88 catches on 16.4 YPC but just three TDs) remains among the very best WRs in the NFL but after leading the NFL with 33.8 PPG in 2016, the Falcons are a middle-of-the-pack 15th (in a 32-team league) in scoring here in 2017 at 22.1 PPG. Defensively, the Falcons have held their own, allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 318.4 YPG (9th). LA Rams: First-year head coach Sean McVay has transformed the Rams, as after LA averaged NFL lows in points (14.0 PPG) and total offense (262.7 YPG) in 2016, this year's team was the NFL's highest scoring team at 29.9 PPG. The Rams are the second team in history to lead the league in scoring, after ranking last the previous season. Jared Goff became an accomplished QB over night (3,804 yards, 28 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a QB rating of 100.5) and RB Todd Gurley could possibly be the 2017 MVP. He has 1,305 yards rushing and 13 rushing TD, sin addition to finishing 2nd on the team in receiving yards with 788 yards with a team-high 64 receptions (plus six more TDs). WR Cooper Kupp led the team with 869 receiving yards on 62 catches (5 TDs), while Robert Woods added 781 yards and 5 TDs on 56 catches. Sammy Watkins caught just 39 passes but leads the team with eight TDs. The offense got most of the glory but LA's defense has allowed 20.6 PPG to rank a respectable 12th. The pick: It’s been a while since the Rams played a postseason game at the venerable Coliseum. The answer to that trivia question would be, the 1978 NFC title games in a 28-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys and Roger Staubach. Are the 31-year-old MvVay and his second-year QB (Goff) really up to this kind of pressure? Let's not forget that Atlanta's entire season has been about redemption after blowing that 28-3 Super Bowl lead and the Falcons come in having won six of their last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans. 'Matty Ice" is no MVP in 2017 but he's thrown 12 TD passes and just one interception over his last four playoff games. Take the points and make the Falcons an 10* play. |
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01-06-18 | Titans +9 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-7 Tennessee Titans are in the postseason for the first time since 2008, earning a wild card bid as the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans will head to Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday for a game against the 10-6 KC Chiefs, who won the AFC West after a season of streaks (more in a bit). Tennessee has not won a playoff game since 2003 but it's also worth noting that the Chiefs haven't won a home playoff game since Jan. 8, 1994, having lost five straight postseason home contests (OUCH!). Tennessee: The Titans' offense has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent. QB Marcus Mariota leads a passing offense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL (199.4 YPG), throwing more interceptions (15) than TD passes (13). His QB rating is awful, at 79.3. Tennessee relies on its running game but after Murray (1,287 yards on 4.4 YPC) led the way in 2016, with the team ranking ranking third with 136.7 YPG (4.6 YPC) on the ground in 2016, things have not gone as well in 2017. Murray has just 659 yards (3.6 YPC!) and while fellow RB Henry (744 yards) has had his moments, the Titans rank just 15th in rushing this season (114.6 YPG), with the team's average falling from 4.6 YPC to 4.1 (that's big!). The Titans are scoring a modest 20.9 PPG (19th) and the defense ranks 17th, allowing 22,2 PPG. Kansas City: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season by beating the Patriots up in New England in the NFL's Thursday night season opener. Led by veteran QB Alex Smith and rookie RB Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs opened 5-0 SU & ATS. The team then "hit a wall," going 1-6 SU & ATS, before going 4-0 SU &ATS down the stretch. Smith's had a career-season, completing 67.5% for 4,042 yards with 26 TDs and just five INTs (104.7 QB rating). Hunt had a mid-season slump but ran for a league-high 1,327 yards (4.9 YPC with 8 TDs) and caught 53 passes with three more TDs. TE Kelce led the team with 83 catches and 8 TDs, while WR Hill added 75 catches and 7 TDs. Defensively, the Chiefs are allowing 365.1 YPG (28th) but some better news is that they rank higher in the most important defensive category, points allowed (21.2 PPG ranks 15th). The pick: KC has the better offensive weapons and the defense played much better down the stretch, allowing just 13.7 PPG in the first three of the team's four-game season-ending winning streak (allowed 24 points n a meaningless Week 17 win). However, I can't ignore the fact that the Chiefs have lost FIVE consecutive home playoff games and here, they have a significant pointspread to cover (note: it seems to be rising by the day!). Four of the Titans' seven losses came by six points or less and over Tennessee's last 10 games, the Titans' allowed more than 20 points just three times. Take the big points and make Tennessee an 8* play. |
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01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucks have won three of four and at 20-16, currently own the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. The team's lone loss in that aforementioned span came just this past Monday, when Milwaukee lost 131-127 in OT at Toronto. The Raptors visit the Bradley Center in Milwaukee tonight on a three-game winning streak which leaves them 26-10 on the season, good enough for the East's No. 2 seed (Toronto is 2 1/2 games back of the Celtics and two games up on the Cavs). Toronto: The Bucks could not figure out how to contain Toronto star DeMar DeRozan in Monday's loss, as the shooting guard scored a Raptors franchise-record 52 points. The backcourt duo of DeRozan (25.2-4.3-5.0) and Lowry (16.2-5.1-6.9) is top-notch plus PF Ibaka (13.8 & 6.1) and center Valanciunas (10.6 & 7.60 are quality players. DeRozan has been especially hot since the calendar flipped to 2018, averaging 48.5 points in Toronto's last two contests. While DeRozan, Lowry, Ibaka and Valanciunas have been the driving force this season, Delon Wright (8.8) set a career high against Chicago in Toronto's most recent game with 25 points and 13 rebounds, plus Fred VanVleet (6.3) added 13 on 5-of-7 shooting, marking his ninth double-digit scoring game of the season. The Raptors are the NBA's third-highest scoring team at 111.6 PPG. Milwaukee: The Bucks are creeping up the standings in the Eastern Conference and quickly bounced back from their Jan. 1 loss in Toronto by cruising past the Indiana Pacers 122-101 on Wednesday. The rout allowed Giannis Antetokounmpo to sit out the entire fourth quarter. "We would all like to have a game like this where you can keep them under 30 minutes, but unfortunately that hasn't happened a lot this year," Bucks head coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "So, this is a good win, especially having that game in Toronto (on Monday)." Milwaukee shot 58.7 percent from the floor and handed out 33 assists on Wednesday, with Matthew Dellavedova (nine), Malcolm Brogdon (five) and Eric Bledsoe (five) joining Antetokounmpo (five) in getting the whole team involved. Antetokounmpo (29.1-10.4-4.3) is a superstar but SF Middleton (20.6 & 5.7) and guard Bledsoe (18.2-4.1-4.5) are players any team would want. The pick: I realize that Toronto has won 15 of 18 but this is a quick "re-hook" for these two teams from a New Year’s Day contest. I feel confident in saying that DeRozan won't get 52 points again and remember, even with his record output, the Raptors needed OT (at Home!) to edge the Bucks.by just four points. The Bradley Center setting gives Milwaukee the edge in this quick turnaround. Make the Bucks a 10* play |
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01-05-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Towson -11 | Top | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The NC-Wilmington Seahawks will travel to SECU Arena to take on the Towson Tigers this Friday night in Colonial Athletic Association action. The Seahawks improved to 4-10 (1-1 CAA) on the season after defeating Drexel,107-87 this past Tuesday. As for the Tigers, they opened the season with a conference loss at Old Dominion (how rare is that!), before running off 10 consecutive wins. However, Towson comes into this contest having lost four straight games to fall to 10-5. Tuesday's 75-72 defeat at the hands of Elon, also leaves the Tigers 0-2 in CAA play. NC-Wilimington: The Seahawks had little trouble putting up points against the Drexel defense and had a double-digit lead throughout the second half after taking a 57-40 halftime lead. UNC-Wilmington shot 58.7% from the floor. However, that effort is the exception, not the rule, so far this season. The Seahawks have two excellent players in the 6-7 Cacok (18.1 & 13.4) and PG Talley (16.4 & 5.1 APG) but while the team can score (81.3 PPG), it's defense is a sieve. NC-Wilmington is allowing 85.0 PPG (343rd) on 47.8% shooting (318th). Towson: The Tigers returned four starters from last year's team and their current skid is surprising. Guards Martin (18.7) and Morsell (12.1) are supported by six players all getting 15-plus MPG, while chipping in between 3.1 and 8.5 PPG. SF Keith (7.8 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Gorham (7.2 & 5.5) are the team's best frontcourt players. Towson (74.3 PPG) can't quite score with Wilmington but the Tigers play solid defense, allowing a modest 65.8 PPG (51st), while holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting from thge floor (34th). The pick: The Seahawks won and covered their last game but prior to that, had b 0-9een ATS in lined games this season, including 0-4 SU & ATS in lined true road games. Towson's four-game skid has all come in road contests and the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season (5-1-1 ATS run at home, going back into last season). Make Towson a 10* play. |
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01-04-18 | Thunder -1 v. Clippers | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The OKC Thunder will play a second consecutive game in Staples Center, having defeated the LA Lakers 133-96 on Wednesday. The Thunder righted themselves from a two-game skid that had followed a six-game winning streak. The Clippers have won four straight games and six of their last seven. Five of those six victories have come at Staples Center, as the Clippers are in the midst of one of their longest home stretches of the season. Tonight's game will be the Clippers' fifth consecutive at Staples Center (one game was as the visiting team against the Lakers) and they will run that streak to seven consecutive when they host the Warriors on Saturday and the Hawks on Monday. Oklahoma City: The Thunder "took no prisoners" in last night's win over the Lakers, the team's seventh in its last nine games. OKC (20-17) shot a season-best 60.2 percent from the floor plus established a season best for points scored in Wednesday's 133-96 rout. Reigning MVP Russell Westbrook had 20 points and 12 assists to run his streak of consecutive 20-point outings to 11, while reaching double digits in assists for the sixth time in seven games. Westbrook's numbers are down from last year but the team seems to be finally finding "a balance" between its three superstars. OKC is 13-5 since Dec. 1 suggesting that head coach Billy Donovan has finally figured out how to fit Paul George (20.7 & 5.4) and Carmelo Anthony (17.6 & 6.0) around Russell Westbrook (24.7-9.5-10.1). LA Clippers: Blake Griffin (23.5-7.7-5.3) has been back for the last three games (all wins), after missing 14 straight. However, the team's most explosive player over the last seven games has been veteran guard Lou Williams (13th year). Williams (21.7 PPG and 4.8 APG would both be career single-season bests) is on a scoring spree and it is equating to victories. He'll look to score 30-plus points for the fifth time in the past seven games tonight against OKC, as the Clippers go for their seventh win in the last eight contests. Los Angeles (17-19) has won six consecutive home games and nine of its last 13 overall contests as it closes in on the .500 mark after getting off to a poor start. Thge pick: If a team has to play back-to-back games on the road, it can't ask for more than this situation, as OKC players didn't even have to check out of the hotel after beating the Lakers right here at Staples Center last night. Griffin may be back for LA and as noted, Williams has been great but Beverley (12.2) is out for the year, Gallinari (13.4 & 4.4) won't be back for awhile and Rivers (15.8) is listed as questionable after sitting out the past two games (Achilles). I've already noted that the offense is beginning to "find a groove" but OKC's defense is allowing just 100.4 PPG on the season, third-best in the NBA. Plus, how about this? George and Westbrook are first and second in the league in steals, collecting 2.45 and 2.00 respectively. Make OKC a 10* play. |
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01-04-18 | USC v. California +7 | Top | 80-62 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: USC returned all five starters from last year's 26-win team and after a 3-0 start was ranked No. 10 in the AP poll. The Trojans were still No. 14 after suffering their first loss of the season (at home to A&M), dropping them to 4-1. However, two more losses followed and at 4-3, USC was out of the top-25. The Trojans are currently 10-5 (have wons six of eight since that three-game skid), including going 1-1 in Pac 12 play after opening with a home loss to Washington last Friday, but then beating Washington State on Sunday. Cal came into this season off seasons of 23 and 21 wins but also with a first-year heads coach in Wyking Jones, who would have just one starter coming back. Cal checks in 7-7 but most of its wins have come against some mediocre-to-bad teams, including a 77-74 victory over Stanford in the team's Pac 12 opener. The Bears had to crawl back from 17 points down against Stanford, a 6-8 team which has lost to Eastern Washington (6-9), Portland St. and Long Beach St. (6-10). USC: The Trojans feature an excellent starting-five, led by the 6-11 Metu (17.8 & 7.6) and the 6-10 Boatwright (16.8 & 7.0). Rounding out the group are guards McLaughlin (12.9-4.0-8.0), Stewart (12.5) and Mathews (9.4). The team's sixth-man is the 6-11 Rakocevic (6.5 & 5.2). Metu is considered a potential NBA lottery pick but was ejected late in the first half against Washington State after he ran by Washington St. guard Carter Skaggs, who was shooting a three-pointer in front of the Trojans' bench, and punched him in the groin. USC coach Andy Enfield said Metu will sit out the first half against the Bears, surrender his captaincy and sent a letter of apology to Skaggs, Cal: The Bears have a mix of veterans and freshman in both the backcourt and frontcourt. Junior guard Coleman (20.1) is the team's leading scorer and his backcourt partner is freshman McNeill (13.4). Up front, 6-11 senior Lee (12.6 & 7.8) is paired with 6-7 freshman Sueing (12.0 & 5.7). Cal sputtered out of the gate with a 3-6 start that included head-scratching losses to UC Riverside (74-66), Central Arkansas (96-69) and Division II Chaminade (96-72) but the Bears have been better since. Cal does own a nice win at Mountain West heavyweight San Diego State (63-62) and while Stanford is going nowhere in the Pac 12 this season, when a team can come back from 17 points down to win, it deserves some props. The pick: USC won't have Metu and while Haas Pavilion may not be the most intimidating venue in the Pac 12 these days, Cal is still 37-8 straight up its previous 45 home games. Take the points and make Cal a 10* play! |
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01-03-18 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The 25-10 Toronto Raptors have quietly moved into second-place among all Eastern Conference teams, one game better than the Cleveland Cavaliers and 2 1/2 games behind the Boston Celtics, who hold down the East's top spot. Toronto (25-10) went 11-3 in December and will head to 13-24 Chicago Wednesday night having won eight of its last 10 games. Chicago won 10 of 12 games following Nikola Mirotic's return from facial fractures but has dropped the its last two games two at Washington and home against Portland. The two defeats have come by a total of just eight points and the Bulls have squandered leads late in each of the setbacks. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan set a Toronto franchise record with 52 points in a 131-127 overtime victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday (the previous team record of 51 points shared by Vince Carter and Terrence Ross) . "He was playing with a lot of juice, oomph," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told reporters of DeRozan. "You could see the bounce in his step in the first quarter, the force he was playing with coming off pick-and-rolls, bouncing up, and he maintained that throughout the whole game, which was huge for him." DeRozan (24.9-4.3-4.9) made17-of-29 from the floor and was 13-of-13 from the line (he also handed out a team-high eight assists). PG Lowry (16.2-6.1-7.0) joins DeRozan to give Toronto one of the NBA's best backcourt while PF Ibaka (13.7 & 6.1) and center Valanciunas (10.9 & 7.6) are the team's frontcourt stalwarts. Toronto is the NBA's third-highest scoring team at 111.2 PPG and do a decent job on the defensive end as well, allowing 103.5 PPG (10th). Chicago: Mirotic is averaging a team-high 18.3 PPG in his 14 games, while adding 7.3 PPG. However, while his return has been the spark that led to Chicago's recent run of strong play, it wasn't the only factor. Second-year PGKris Dunn is averaging 15.8 points and 8.1 assists over his last 13 games and scored 22 points in Monday's 124-120 overtime loss to the Trail Blazers. "We're clicking right now," Dunn told reporters. "We're playing good basketball. These two losses, they definitely hurt. When they're down the stretch, and you feel like you can win the games, it's hard to swallow. But we're playing good basketball, and I like what we're doing so far." Let's not forget to mention rookie Markkanen, who is easily been one of the league's best 'freshman' so far, averaging 14.7 & 7.4. The pick: The Raptors have taken each of the first two meetings this season with the Bulls, although both games were in Toronto. The Bulls are a money-making 13-2 ATS their last 15 but are entering a stretch in which most of their games will be against teams with winning records.Chicago has begun to have some trouble closing out tight games. The Bulls will enter Wednesday's game attempting to overcome a pair of losses in which they couldn't finish games when it mattered most. After a four-point loss Sunday against Washington when the Wizards scored the final seven points, Chicago again lost by four against Portland and again blew a lead in the final minute with the Trail Blazers playing without leading scorer Damian Lillard. I see that happening here. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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01-03-18 | St. John's v. Creighton -12 | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Big East action tonight from CenturyLink Center in Omaha, as the St. John’s Red Storm visit the Creighton Bluejays. The Red Storm went 10-2 in non-conference play but have opened Big East action 0-2, losing to Providence and Seton Hall. St John's is 10-4 (0-2 Big East) as it takes the court against 11-3 Creighton, which has split its first two league games, losing to Seton Hall back on Dec. 28 but bouncing back to beat Providence in its most recent outing. St. John's: This is Chris Mullins third season coaching at his alma mater and after seasons of six and 14 wins, he has to be happy about his team's 10 wins before Jan. 1. The Red Storm have five players scoring in double digits,, led by PG Ponds (20.1-6.2-4.8) and fellow guard LoVett (14.9). The problem is that Ponds is questionable with a knee injury and LoVett is out with an ankle injury (he's missed the last seven games). A pair of 6-7 forwards in Ahmed (11.7 & 4.7) and Clark (11.5 & 4.2) plus 6-5 guard Simon (10.6-7.9-4.8) will be asked to do more. Mullins will also hope that the 6-11 Tariq Owens (7.7 & 6.3) can repeat his season highs of 19 points and 14 boards (vs. Seton Hall), here. However, even at 100 percent, St. John's averages a modest 73.8 PPG (214th), although the defense has done well, allowing 65.9 PPG (52nd) on 39.0 percent shooting (29th). Creighton: The Bluejays have been one of the nation’s most productive offensive teams, averaging 91.1 PPG (4th) on 51.4% shooting (8th). Guards Foster (19.0) and Thomas (14.8) lead the way with the team's best frontcourt player being the 6-9 Krampelj, who is chipping in 12.6 & 7.0. The Slovenian has averaged 18 points and nine rebounds in the first two Big East games. The Bluejays also have excellent depth, contributing to the team's offensive success. The pick: We knpw LoVett will miss and Ponds may, so it seems highly unlikely the Red Storm have the firepower to 'hang' vs. the Bluejays, who have won the last four meetings between the two schools, scoring at least 80 in all four contests. Make Creighton a 10* play. |
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01-02-18 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -5 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Blake Griffin has made a faster return than expected from a sprained knee and has averaged 24.5 PPG in his two games back on the court. The Clipps have won both of them but had begun a turnaround before he got back on the floor, as they'll go for a sixth victory in their last seven games. The now 16-19 Clippers will welcome the Memphis Grizzlies to Staples Center on Tuesday, a team which has also had a sudden surge, winning three of its last five. Memphis: In fairness, the Grizzlies have (had) nowhere to go but up. PG Mike Conley (17.1 & 4.1 APG) has been shelved since last playing on Nov.13 to deal with his Achilles. Memphis would lose 17 of its next 19 before little 3-2 "mini-run." Swingman Tyreke Evans has been excellent (19.6-5.1-4.6) and center Marc Gasol (18.5 & 8.5) is an established All Star but no other player is averaging in double digits on the season. To put it mildly, the Grizzlies have struggled offensively for most of the season (98.7 PPG ranks 29th) but are suddenly averaging 112.6 points while winning three of their last five contests. "I think if you take a look at our past five games, our scoring is up, our shooting percentages are up, our assists are up and our turnovers are down," interim head coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters. "So that's the growth that we've been looking for in our offense." Memphis is a stellar 29-of-51 from three-point range over the past two games, going a torrid 15-of-21 in a loss to the Golden State Warriors and following up with a 14-of-30 effort in Sunday's 114-96 road win against the Sacramento Kings Evans had 26 points versus the Kings for his eighth 20-point outing in the past nine contests. "He's had that edge all year," Memphis center Marc Gasol told reporters after Evans torched his former team. "He's had that same mentality, so don't take it like he came in here and did something he hasn't done every game. He's come with that aggressiveness." LA Clippers: Griffin missed14 games due to his knee injury (Clippers were 6-8).but he contributed 25 points, seven rebounds and six assists as Los Angeles recorded a 106-98 victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday (he had 24 points in his return in Friday's win over the Lakers). Guard Lou Williams (in his 13th season) has found teh 'fountain of youth,' pouring in 40 points and contributed eight assists in Sunday's 106-98 victory over the Charlotte Hornets. He made six 3-pointers in the contest and has made 24 threes over the past five games while averaging 30.4 points. "I always feel like I can get it going, but to see it early, it puts me in a different mindset, in an attack mode," Williams said afterward. "Once I get two or three early, that way I can just get everybody else involved." Williams checks in averaging a career-high 21.4 PPG (also 4.8 APG would be a career-high, as well). The pick: Surprisingly, the Grizzlies are 2-0 against the Clippers this season, including a 115-112 victory on Dec. 23 despite a career-best 38 points from LA's Austin Rivers (15.8 PPG). However, .Rivers (Achilles) is questionable after sitting out Sunday. Still, the Clippers have centere Jordan (11.0 & 15.3) to match up with Gasol and I expect the Clippers to exact some revenge here. LA's lone loss in winning five of its last six is that Dec 23 loss in Memphis. Lay the points and make LA a 10* play. |
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01-02-18 | Georgetown +4.5 v. DePaul | Top | 90-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Big East basketball tonight from Chicago at WinTrust Arena, as the Georgetown Hoyas take on the DePaul Blue Demons. Both schools check in at 0-2 in Conference play, so the victor will earn its first conference win. The Hoyas opened 8-0 under first time head coach Patrick Ewing before losing to former Big Est rival Syracuse. After reaching 10-1, Georgetown lost its Big East opener 91-89 at home to Butler and then lost 74-65 at Marquette. The challenge will be easier here vs. 7-7 DePaul, which is coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons in the return of head coach Dave Leitao (Blue Demons have gone 5-31 in Big Est play under Leitao the last two seasons). Georgetown: The Hoyas are led by the 6-10 Govan (18.4 & 12.2), who has nine double-doubles in 13 games. Guards Derrickson (14.6 & 7.5) and Johnson (10.8 & 5.0) also average in double figures. Patrick Ewing's team has had trouble with ball control during its non-conference schedule but it has been downright atrocious in the Big East. The starting lineup racked up 19 giveaways, including five from point guard Jonathan Mulmore, as the Hoyas finished with more than 20 for the second straight game. The Hoyas have also shot less than 44 percent in their first two league games. An argument could be made that Georgetown’s lightweight schedule is starting to catch up with the Hoyas and their early strong start was no more than a product of weak opposition. DePaul: Yes. DePaul is also 0-2 in Big East play but those losses came against Big East and national 'heavyweights' Villanova and Xavier. Max Strus led the team with 33 points on 10 of 18 shooting while Justin Roberts added 16 points to join Strus as the only Blue Demons to score in double digits in the 77-72 loss to Xavier, last time out. Strus (18.6 & 4.6) is the team's leading scored but Roberts is a freshman who is averaging just 4.9 PPG. Joining Strus in double digits are the 6-11 Maric (12.7 & 5.8), PG Cain (11.5-4.2-3.7) and the 6-7 McCallum (11.0 & 6.0). The pick: DePaul’s two losses came to the best in the conference and could be a positive sign of turning the corner in the Big East. However, I'm not 'biting.' This team has been a league laughing stock for quite some time now (Leitao's return hasn't change anything) and prior to a win in the second meeting last season, DePaul had been on an 0-15 run against Georgetown in Big East games. Make the Hoyas a 10* play. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 648 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: I must admit that I was more than a little surprised that there was so much suspense surrounding the CFP Selection Show back on Dec. 3. Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia were 'locks,' and everyone knew that. The drama revolved around "Who was No. 4?" Was anyone really all that surprised that the committee chose Alabama, which set up a 'rubber match' contest with Clemson? The Tide and Tigers have met in the lat two championship games, Alabama winning the first 45-40 and Clemson winning the rematch, 35-31. As for Ohio State, not only did the Buckeyes have two losses to the Crimson Tide's one but Ohio State's two losses came at home to Oklahoma (31-16) and at Iowa, 55-24. Then there was the fact that Clemson had embarrassed Ohio State in last year's semifinal game, 31-0. Choosing Alabama over Ohio State to set up Clemson/Alabama III, seemed like a "no-brainer" to me. Alabama:The Tide opened as the nation's No. 1 team in both preseason polls and stayed there until their loss at Auburn in the team's regular season finale. Alabama relies on an outstanding running game (265.3 YPG ranks 9th) and a dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts (2.005 passing yards with a 15-1 ratio plus 768 YR on 5.6 YPC with 8 TDs) to average 39.1 PPG (11th). Combine that with a defense which allows an FBS-low 11.5 PPG on 258.9 YPG (2nd-best) and it should come as no surprise that Alabama has become a "regular" in the CFP's 'Final 4.' However, Hurts' passing issues popped up again when he went 12-of-22 for 112 yards in the loss to Auburn,. Clemson: The Tigers have great offensive balance, averaging 244.1 YPG through the air (52nd) and 244.1 YPG on the ground (32nd). That adds up to an offense averaging 35.4 PPG (21st). QB Kelly Bryant is no Deshaun Watson (few are) but he was accurate (67.4%) and productive this season, as he threw for 2,678 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs. Bryant added 646 RY with 11 TDs, helping Etienne (744 YR / 7.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and Feaster (659 YR / 6.4 YPC / 7 TDs) give Clemson a strong rushing attack which ranks 32nd (205.1 YPG). Like Alabama, Clemson has a terrific ""stop unit!" Clemson ranks second (to only Alabama) in allowing 12.8 PPG and the Tigers rank fifth in total defense (277.9 YPG ranks 5th). The pick: This game should be a "classic" bu then again, one never knows.I realize that Clemson's 'excuse' for losing at Syracuse was that Bryant got hurt during that game but c'mon, 4-8 Syracuse lost all five games after shocking the Tigers (as a 24-point home dog!), allowing 43.2 PPG. Think there is ANY way Alabama would/could lose to Syracuse? It's rare that Alabama comes into a game with a "chip on its shoulder" and with "something to prove." However, that is exactly the case here. I'm "all in" on the Tide. Make Alabama a 10* play. |
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01-01-18 | Magic +2 v. Nets | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets met twice during the first week of the season with the Nets claiming the first meeting on Oct. 20 in Brooklyn 126-121, while the Magic rebounded four days later for a 125-121 win in Orlando. The Magic opened the current season 8-4 but they've dropped 21 of 25 games since that hot start, including Saturday's 117-111 home loss to Miami in which they squandered an 18-point lead. As for the Nets, Brooklyn hasn't been above .500 since it was 3-2 after a upsetting the Cavs at home back on Oct. 25th, a victory that left them 3-2. The teams meet Monday night at Barclays Center for the third time this season and both are fighting to keep themselves out of the basement in the Eastern Conference. The Nets check in at 13-23 and the Magic at 12-25. Orlando:The Magic still aren't winning but they may finally be getting Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier going at the same time after injuries hindered each player. Gordon scored 39 points on 14-of-22 shooting against the Heat while Fournier contributed 23 on 9-of-17, their best totals since coming back from calf and ankle injuries, respectively. PF Gordon leads the team in scoring at 18.9 PPG plus adds 7.9 RPG. Swingman Fournier is right behind him averaging 18.3 PPG. Orlando needs those two healthy with center Nikola Vucevic (17.4 & 9.3) lost to a broken hand. Bismack Biyombo has recorded two straight double-doubles and is averaging 11.7 rebounds over the course of three straight starts since Vucevic went down. Brooklyn: The Nets know all about losing key players to injury, as Jeremy Lin was lost for the season in the team's season opener and DeAngelo Russell (20.9 & 5.7 APG) went down with a knee injury after just 12 games (he's expected back later this month). Currently, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (15.1 & 6.5) is carrying Brooklyn through its rocky stretch, scoring 22 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Saturday's loss while helping make a tight game of what looked like a blowout early on. "We stayed poised to make a comeback," Hollis-Jefferson told reporters. "That's basketball. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it doesn't. But for us, now we're definitely competing. It starts with the starting unit, we've got to come out that way. And I feel like the effort's there." He is averaging 17.2 points and 8.2 rebounds over his last five games, leading six active Net players in double digits on teh season. The pick: The last time the Brooklyn Nets played a home game, they produced their best showing of the season, delivering a resounding 119-84 win over the Washington Wizards on Dec. 22. The Nets will get several chances in the upcoming weeks to produce more home victories starting tonight, as they play eight of their next 10 games at home. Yes, Orlando has lost six straight on the road but the Magic have also won seven of the last nine meetings with the Nets. Make Orlando a 10* play. |
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01-01-18 | Texas -3 v. Iowa State | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Longhorns are coming off an awful 11-22 season, so the team's 9-3 start was a welcome sight. Texas easily handled Alabama 66-50 on Dec 22 in the Vulcan Classic at Birmingham, Al. but Kansas was a little too much for the Longhorns in their Big 12 opener, as they fell 92-86 at home to the Jayhawks on Friday. Texas (9-4 / 0-1 Big 12) will visit Hilton Coliseum on Monday to take on the 9-3 Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State also lost its Big 12 opener, falling on Friday as well, 91-75 at home against Kansas State. Texas: The 6-9 Osetkowski (14.8 & 7.8) is the team's leading scorer and guard Andrew Jones is second on the team with 14.1 PPG. Jones sat out four games with a broken wrist but returned against Kansas but was only able to play nine minutes. Jones' status means more will be expected of guards Roach (11.2) and Coleman (8.0 & 4.2 APG). Coleman sure stepped up vs. Kansas, scoring 17 points with five assists plus matched a season high with six boards. Freshman Mohamed Bamba is 6-11 and regarded as one of the top incoming freshmen in the country this season. He set career highs of 22 points, 15 rebounds and eight blocks vs. Kansas. He enters averaging 11.8 & 10.2 as well as 4.5 blocks per game. Iowa State The Cyclones had a nine-game winning streak going before falling to Kansas State in their last outing. Iowa State had to be disappointed by the home loss but freshman Lindell Wigginton (16.2 & 4.2) wasn’t intimidated in his first Big 12 game, scoring 23 points on 6-of-10 shooting. He's one of four starters in double digits, joined by fellow guards Jackson (15.0) and Weller-Baab (12.6-7.4-7.1) plus the 6-9 Lard (10.3 & 6.1), who comes off the bench. The pick: Texas coach Shaka Smart got an unexpected surprise last June when the 6-11 Mohamed Bamba chose the Longhorns over expected destinations of Kentucky or Duke, as he's transformed Texas into an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. He, plus the 6-9 Osetkowski will make for tough match ups for Iowa State. The 6-8 Solomon Young (6.8 & 5.7) is the Cyclones' tallest starter and 6-9 Cameron Lard, the team's tallest reserve. Hilton Coliseum is a tough venue but Kansas State didn't have much trouble. Texas has lost fout times but all have all come seven points or less and all have come against quality opponents (Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan and Kansas). Make Texas a 10* play. |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The first of two Jan. 1 CFP semifinal games will take place at the Rose Bowl, as the 12-1 and No.2 Oklahoma Sooners (champions of the Big 12) will take on the 12-1 and No.3 Georgia Bulldogs (champs of the SEC). Both schools went 8-1 in their respective conferences with Oklahoma dominating TCU 41-17 in the Big 12 title game (Sooners also beat the Horned Frogs 38-20 during the regular season), while Georgia avenged its lone regular season loss (40-17 at Auburn), with a easier than expected 28-7 victory over Auburn in the SEC title game.This is not a "traditional Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac 8, 10 or 12) but it is a meeting of two legendary football programs which will be meeting for the very first time! Georgia: The Bulldogs feature one of CFB's best ground games, averaging 263.5 YPG (10th). Nick Chubb leads the team with 1,175 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) and 13 TDs, while Sony Michel added 948 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) and 13 TDs of his own. Freshman QB Jake Fromm remains a question mark, as Georgia ranks just 110th with its 170.1 YPG through the air. However, Fromm made few mistakes (five INTs in 230 attempts) and was excellent in the SEC title game, completing 16 of 22 for 183 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Fromm leads an offense good enough to average 34.9 PPG (23rd). That Georgia D has been terrific, holding opponents to 19 points or less in all but two of the team's 13 games. Georgia will take on Oklahoma's explosive offense allowing an average of just 13.2 PPG (3rd) on 270.9 YPG Oklahoma: Any discussion of Oklahoma begins with its offense, led by Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. He's thrown for 4,340 yards, while completing 71.0% with 41 TDs and just five INTs (in 369 attempts). Not a single receiver has topped 1,000 yards but 13 different players have caught a TD pass. That group is led by WRs Brown and Lamb plus TE Andrews. That trio has accounted for 21 TD catches. The ground game averages 215.9 YPG (27th) and 5.6 YPC. Anderson leads with 960 yards (5.9 YPC & 11 TDs) but Sermon (710 YR / 6.0 YPC) and Adams (542 YR / 9.2 YPC) are also dangerous. All together, Oklahoma enters averaging 583.3 YPG (tops in the nation) and 44.9 PPG (4th). There have been concerns all season about Oklahoma's defense (Sooners allow 25.0 PPG to rank 50th) but over the final four games of the season, Oklahoma has looked significantly better on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 17.8 PPG. The pick: Both storied programs Both are playing in the “Grandaddy of Them All” for just the second time. Georgia is making its 21st consecutive (15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS), while it’s 19 in a row for Oklahoma (just 9-9 SU & 7-11 ATS). Not sure those stats mean much here. The Sooners have been a "team on a mission" since its 38-31 home upset loss to Iowa State in early October, capturing eight straight games and going 5-1 ATS its last six. Oklahoma has covered four in a row vs. SEC opponents, including bowl wins over Alabama (45-31 in the 2013 Sugar Bowl) and last year's 35-19 victory over Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. Make Oklahoma an 8* play. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -10 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Peach Bowl will be played Jan 1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the site of the 2017 National Championship Game. It's quite a story that the UCF Knights, a school that went 0-12 in 2015, will take a 12-0 record into this contest with a chance for the school's first-ever undefeated campaign. UCF"s opponent will be SEC stalwart Auburn (10-3), that came within one win of becoming the first two-loss team to make the four-team CFP field. The Tigers ran out of gas against Georgia in the SEC championship game but still have a chance to win at least 11 games for the third time in the last eight. Central Florida: UCF will try to complete its historiic season with the head coach that led this team to its remarkable two-year turnaround leaving for Nebraska right after the game. Scott Frost took over a UCF team that was winless in 2015 and turned them into a 12-0 team two years later. The pull to "come home" was too great for Frost to ignore but he will coach the Knights before moving on to his new job. "It’s gonna take us being together every step of the way,” UCF senior linebacker Shaquem Griffin told the Orlando Sentinel. “Ups and down, we’re gonna have to be able to stick it out. Auburn is an amazing team, but we’re an amazing team also.” Dual threat QB McKenzie Milton lead an offense averaging an FBS-high 49.4 PPG. Milton is completing 69.2% for 3,795 yards with 35 TDs and just nine INTs. He's the team's second-leading rusher with 497 yards on 5.3 YPC with seven TDs. Killins is the team's best RB (762 yards on 6.7 YPC with 10 TDs) and WR Smith has 54 catches while averaging 20.0 YPC with 13 TDs. With an offense generating 540.9 YPG (4th) and just under 50 PPG, the defense does not need to be great and that pretty much sums ups UCF's stop unit, which is allowing 25.2 ppg (52nd) on 428.5 YPG (94th). Auburn:The Tgers lost early on 14-6 at Clemson and 27-23 at LSU but then made a great late-season run, including knocking off No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama in a three-game span. However, both the games were played in Auburn and after its emotional win over the Tide, the Tigers drew Georgia in a re-match but this time the game was played in Atlanta, a distinct advantage for the Bulldogs. Auburn just ran out of gas in the second half and Georgia pulled away for a 28-7 win. Auburn's had some time off to re-group and brings outstanding offensive balance into this game. The Tigers have run for 228.2 YPG (21st) and pass for 225.8 YPG, leading to an average of 34.4 PPG (25th). QB Jarrett Stidham is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,827 yards with 17 TDs and only four interceptions. RB Kerryon Johnson leads the way with 1,320 yards rushing and 17 TDs. Defensively, Auburn is allowing 17.3 PPG (9th) on and 317.3 YPG (13th). Those numbers are even more impressive when one considers Auburn faced five ranked teams this season, including four games against team ranked in the top-six when they met! The pick: Clearly, there is a huge difference in class in this game, SEC vs. AAC. However, let's note that the last time UCF came into a bowl of this magnitude riding a 'Cinderella-like season," was in 2013. That year , as 16 1/2-point underdogs, the Knights upset then-No. 6 Baylor 52-42 in the Fiesta Bowl.This year's UCF is better than the 2013 edition, so just maybe it's "deja vu all over again." I will note that Auburn is just 1-3 in bowl games underrMalzahn and that the Tigers, like those Baylor Bears in 2013, come as a top-10 team (No. 7). Make UCF an 8* play. |
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12-31-17 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in Week 17 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The 6-9 Dolphins will finish with a non-winning season for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. It's particularly disappointing because the Dolphins lone winning season in that span was last year's 10-6 mark. Miami limps in with losses in seven of its last nine games and the team will miss the playoffs for the 14th time in the last 16 seasons. As for the 8-7 Bills, they find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they remain in contention for a playoff berth entering the final week of the regular season. However, in order for that to happen, the Bills would not only have to win in Miami, they need help. The most direct way to earn a playoff spot, which would end a 17-year drought, would be a Baltimore home loss to Cincinnati. They other path would require Tennessee and the LA Chargers to lose to Jacksonville and Oakland, respectively. "It's exciting, I've got to believe, for this city," Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. "(This organization is) in a position that we haven't been in, this city hasn't been in, for a number of years." Buffalo:The Bills rank dead last in passing at 175.9 YPG and the running game has fallen off from last year as well, averaging 126.1 YPG (6th), which is down from 164.4 YPG in 2016, which ranked first in the entire NFL. The QB situation is strange, as the team is not sold on Tyrod Taylor but there is no current "Plan B." Taylor completes 62.1% but as noted, the team ranks last in passing yards. He's thrown just 13 TDs but also has just four INTs in 393 attempts. Also, he can make plays with his feet (392 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC) and is also capable of extending plays with his mobility. The defense has not had its best season, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 355.1 YPG (25th). Miami" Once upon a time, the Dolphins were 4-2 but a 40-0 Thursday night loss at Baltimore sent the team's season on a downward spiral from which it never recovered. Jay Cutler was never the answer at QB and in Miami's first game against the Bills in Buffalo, he was done in by three interceptions. Miami traded away its best (only?) RB before the trade deadline in Ajayi and enters this game 28th with 86.3 YPG on the ground. The Dolphins offense scores a modest 17.7 PPG, which ranks 27th. The defense is Buffalo-like, allowing 24.7 PPG (28th) on 337.3 YPG (18th). The pick: As noted above, there a few scenarios that could qualify Buffalo for its first playoff berth since 1999 and while none are "all that likely," ALL scenarios involve Buffalo winning here. Miami has 14 players on injured reserve, including six projected Opening Day starters. Two key players listed as questionable for Sunday are running back Damien Williams and rookie CB Cordrea Tankersley. With only 1 TD pass the last two weeks, the Jay Cutler era is ending quietly for the Dolphins and Adam Gase might be tempted to go with Matt Moore, if his foot has healed. The problem there is, he also stinks! The Dolphins are minus-13 in turnover differential, while their 28 turnovers are tied for second most in the league. Throw in that Miami is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 December games and why not take the Bills? Make Buffalo an 8* play. |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -101 | 115 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona's 13-3 regular season and appearance in the NFC championship game seems a lot further away than 2015. The Cardinals beat the Giants 23-0 last Sunday and end their season with a Week 17 viist to CenturyLink Field in Seattle with a chance to finish the year at .500, after climbing to 7-8 with that victory over the NY Giants. Seattle won 21-12 last Sunday in Dallas, despite accumulating just 136 yards of total offense. The victory gave Seattle a 9-6 record but a win here does not ensure a playoff berth. The only way Seattle can make the 2017 playoff field, extending its streak of consecutive playoff appeaarnces to six (assuming the Seahawks win here), is if the Falcons lose to the Panthers in Atlanta (or of course, tie). is if Arizona: The Cards are relying on Drew Stanton these days at QB and he completed 20 of 34 for 209 yards with two TDs but also two INTs in the 23-0 win over the Giants. A.P. made a big splash when he first arrived but has been on IR since late November. The Arizona rushing game ranks 30th, averaging just 84.7 YPG. Despite a revolving door of QBs due to injury (Palmer, Gabbert and Stanton), WR Larry Fitzgerald checks in with 101 catches and six TDs (he's a remarkable player). Fitzgerald signed a contract for next year but hasn't yet committed to playing despite another standout campaign. The 34-year-old is the fifth player in NFL history to record five straight 100-catch seasons and his first against the Seahawks - provided he doesn't get shut out - will stretch his streak to 211 games with a reception, which would tie Tony Gonzalez for the second-longest in league history. Athe Cards are also allowing 22.5 PPG (17th). Seattle: The injury-plagued Seattle defense came through last Sunday in Dallas with three sacks, a forced fumble that they also recovered and a pair of INTs, including a 30-yard pick-six from Justin Coleman. QB Russell Wilson has carried this team all season with 3,762 passing yards, 32 TDs and just 11 INTs (94.7 QB rating). He's also the team's leading rusher with 550 yards (6.1 YPC) and three TDs. However, over the last two weeks, he's thrown for just 142 and 93 yards! Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense has been plagued by injuries but still checks in 13th in both points allowed (20.4 per) and total defense (327.5 YPG). The pick:Seattle has to win and then hope things turn out well for them in Atlanta but the team has to be concerned that the Cardinals are 3-1 in Seattle during Bruce Arians' tenure.Then again, isn't forewarned, forearmed? Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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12-31-17 | Browns +14 v. Steelers | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 112 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Browns will meet the Pittsburgh Steelers for this Week 17 game at Heinz Field. Can we actually call it an AFC North rivalry game? At one time it was and there is still likely no love lost between the two teams but with the Browns sitting at 0-15 an d the Steelers at 12-3 (need a win and a New England loss at home to the Jets to earn the AFC's No. 1 seed), the two teams operate in separate 'universes' in NFL 2017. The Browns are down to their last chance to get a win this season, after falling 20-3 at the Chicago Bears last Sunday, while the Steelers come in off clinching a first round bye with a 34-6 win over Houston on Christmas Day. Cleveland: The Browns have lost five in a row to Pittsburgh, including a 21-18 setback at home in the season opener. Cleveland enters having been limited to 10 points or less in four of its last six games, as QB DeShone Kizer's rocky rookie season continues and will come to an end with this contest. Kizer is completing 53.6% for 171.1 YPG with 9 TDs and 21 INTs (QB rating of 57.9). Running back Isaiah Crowell rushed for a career-best 152 yards in the 2016 regular-season finale against Pittsburgh and has had a decent 2017 season, with 832 yards (4.4). Fellow RB Johnson has just 328 yards (4.3 YPC) but is the team's leading receiver with 68 catches. Speaking of receivers, WR Josh Gordon has been back on the field for the last four games and has 14 catches, while averaging 15.7 YPC. Still, the bottom line is that the Browns rank dead-last in scoring (14.0 PPG) and despite allowing a modest 326.8 YPG (12th), allow 25.5 PPG (30th). A league-high 39 giveaways, including a league-worst minus-28 TO margin, has a way of doing that! Pittsburgh: Here's the rub. Pittsburgh's only chance at wresting the top overall seed from New England is to have the Patriots lose at home to the New York Jets. Tomlin said it will likely be an "11th-hour decision" as to how much playing time to give his starters but insisted there will be no "empathy" toward the plight of the Browns factoring into his thoughts. "More important than anything is we lay a foundation of our plan and get going in terms of things we need to do to play well. That's always been our mentality," Tomlin insisted. "Those are things (playing) we'll decide later in the week." WR Antonio Brown, who has 101 receptions and NFL-best 1,533 yards, has already been ruled out for the second straight game with a calf injury. Despite his absence, Pittsburgh rolled over Houston 34-6 last week as Ben Roethlisberger threw for 226 yards and two scores, including one to promising rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has 32 of his 49 receptions over his past six games. RB Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 1,291 yards, managed only 32 in the season opener and could be a candidate to sit out or see limited time. It's expected he will and that Big Ben will sit as well. Pittsburgh's defense ranks second in the league with 50 sacks. The defense ranks 4th in yards allowed (302.4 per) and unlike with the Browns, the Steelers allow just 18.9 PPG (5th). The pick: The Steelers expect the Pats to beat the Jets (both games start at 1;00 ET) but who knows? Still, Tomlin is unlikely to take too many chances. Taht said, the Browns did play teh Steelers close in Week 1 and Pittsburgh has more that its fair share of 'close shaves' against poor team sin 2017. I was able to take 14 points with the Browns and even though that line is long gone, I'm recommending taking the Browns. Remember Crowell's success vs. them l in last season's finale and also note that Josh Gordon has 21 catches in his last two versus the Steelers. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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12-31-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 112 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Cowboys/Giants and Cowboys/Redskins may be more intense rivalries but Cowboys/Eagles has always been a traditionally heated rivalry in the NFC East, as well/ However, this Week 17 meeting between the two clubs will conclude the 2017 season on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field as almost an afterthought. The 13-2 Eagles have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason following their 19-10 victory over the Oakland Raiders on Christmas night. As for the 8-7 Cowboys, they were eliminated from playoff contention last Sunday after a disappointing 21-12 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas: The Cowboys just couldn't make the key plays against Seattle last Sunday. Dak Prescott threw for 182 yards and two interceptions, while Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 97 yards on 24 carries in his first game back from his six game suspension. It's frustrating to lose a game by nine points, when Dallas held Seattle to just 136 yards of total offense! Elliott's return from his suspension helped but in the end, turnovers hurt the Cowboys and ultimately ended their hope of a playoff berth. Dak Prescott was intercepted twice and the offense was unable to produce a touchdown. Prescott has tossed 13 interceptions this season against just four a season ago."It's really disappointing," tight end Jason Witten told reporters. "We had a chance and fought there at the end. It's not overly complicated. Opportunities in this league are fleeting. You have to take advantage of them when you can. We just weren't able to do that well enough." Philadelphia:Nick Foles was brilliant taking over for an injured Wentz against the Giants (237 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs for 115.8 QB rating) but that was not the case last Monday night vs. the Raiders. He completed just 19 of 38 passes for 163 yards with one TD and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 59.4. The Eagles gained just 78 yards on the ground, way below the team's average of 136.2 YPG (2nd). In fact, Philly had just 216 yards of total offense (average 375.5 YPG on the season to rank 4th) and team's 19 points were well below the team's average of 30.5 PPG, the second-best total in the NFL. While Philly's offense struggled, the defense rose to the occasion. he Eagles had three INTs interceptions and three forced fumbles. All three were recovered, including a fumble return for a TD for Derek Barnett as time expired. All while holding Oakland to just 274 yards of total offense and a 3 for 13 mark on 3rd down in the win. Philly's defense heads into its final game allowing 19.3 PPG (6th) on 306.9 YPG (5th). The pick: It's unclear how many snaps the Cowboys' starters will receive given that Sunday's game solely is about pride or for that matter, how the Eagles will handle things with the NFC's No. 1 seed already clinched. However, I'm siding with Dallas, which is playing for nothing but pride. "Zeke" is within 120 yards of joining Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett as the only RBs in Dallas history to begin their careers with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. As for Dak, the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, his worst game of the season came in Philly's 37-9 blowout win over the Cowboys in Dallas, when he threw for 145 yards without a TD and three INTs, 'earning' a QB rating of 30.4. Make Dallas an 8* play. |
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12-31-17 | Savannah State +39 v. Michigan State | Top | 52-108 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The No. 2 Michigan State Spartans will play their final non-conference game on New Year's Eve day, welcoming the Savannah State Tigers to teh Breslin Center..No. 1 Villanova lost for the first time this season yesterday at Butler, so Michigan State (BTW...No. 3 and unbeaten Arizona St. also lost Saturday) will almost certainly open the 2018 as the AP's new No. 1 team. The 13-1 Spartans come into this contest having won 12 straight and have reached triple digits in their last three wins. Meanwhile, the Tigers come in off five straight losses, falling to 3-11 on the season. Savannah State: The Tigers really struggled to shoot the ball during a stretch of four road games over 10 days in mid-December, creating some frustration for head coach Harold Broadnax, Savannah State missed its first nine shots in a 31-point loss to Virginia last time out on Dec. 19, a sign of the fatigue the team was feeling. A pair of 6-5 guards, McClanahan (13.6) and Fenner (10.7) are the only two players averaging in double digits for a team averaging a respectable 79.6 PPG (80th) but on just on 37.8% shooting (347th). Defensively, the Tigers have been in over their heads playing "up in class," and check in allowing 96.8 PPG (351st) on 50.2% shooting (346th) Michigan State; Tom Izzo (and previous MSU squads) have had good offensive teams before but this year's team is very likely the most-balanced stating-five a MSU team has been. Surely in the Izzo era, as all five starters are scoring in double figures plus izzo is able to go to his bench without seeing too much of a fall-off in point production. 6-7 swingman Bridges (16.8 & 6.8)( is one of the nation's best players and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Langford (14.3) and Winston (12.9 & 6.7 APG) plus big men like the 6-8 Ward (15.0 & 7.3) and the 6-11 Jackson (10.5 & 7.5) Bench players are guard McQuaid (7.2) plus forwards Schilling (3.5 & 3.9) and Tillman (3.4 & 23.8) both are solid interior players who can score in the paint. Michigan State is averaging 86.3 PPG (20th) on 52.3% shooting (2nd) plus as always, Izzo teams play defense.The Spartans are allowing 62.1 PPG (15th) on 33.4% shooting, which ranks first in the nation! The pick: It's a 12 noon ET start and both teams would likely rather be elsewhere on this day. Is there any reason for Michigan State to "pour it on?" Sure, Izzo is a pro and demands his team play hard but the good news for the Tigers is that the team has finally had a break (last played Dec. 19th) and fresh legs will help the team's shooting and it's effort on defense. Take the HUGE points and make Savannah State an 8* play. |
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12-30-17 | Texas A&M v. Alabama | Top | 57-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up:Texas A&M is off a 16-15 season last year but will open SEC play Saturday in Alabama, off an impressive non-conference run of 11-1 which has teh Aggies ranked 5th in the latest AP poll. A&M's lone loss came back on Dec. 5 at Phoenix, when the Aggies feel 67-64 to Arizona. A&M won four straight since losing to the Wildcats and is coming off an 89-73 win over Buffalo on Dec. 21. The 8-4 Crimson Tide are looking to bounce back from their worst offensive performance of the season, 66-50 loss to Texas on Dec. 22, which marked their fourth loss in seven games. The good news for Alabama fans is, Alabama leads the all-time series 10-5, including a 5-1 mark at home against the Aggies and has won three of the past four meetings. Texas A&M: The Aggies will be short-handed for this one, as the 6-9 DJ Hogg (14.5 points) serves the second contest of a three-game suspension for violation of school policy and guard Admon Gilder (12.7) is out with a knee injury. A&M is scoring 81.6 PPG (59th) but really shines on the defensive end of the court, holding opponents to 64.4 PPG (31st) on just 36.2% shooting (4th). The Aggies are also an excellent rebounding team thanks to 6-10 center Tyler Davis (13.9 & 8.4) and the 6-10 Robert Williams (7.3 & 10.1). Also, freshman swingman Savion Flagg (8.3 & 5.1 rebounds) has stepped up in Hogg and Gilder’s absence. He was named SEC Freshman of the Week after averaging 16.5 points and nine rebounds in two wins. Also, PG Duane Wilson (12.3 & 4.6 APG) has averaged 19.5 points and seven assists in two games last week. Alabama:The Crimson Tide have gone 4-2 in contests decided by five points or fewer but that's "living on the edge," especially since the team's top-two scorers are freshman. Guards Collin Sexton (20.5 7 3.5 APG) and John Petty (12.9) lead the way, although Alabama has also gotten good production from 6-9 forward Donta Hall (11.1 & 7.5) and 6-5 swingman Dazon Ingram (10.9 & 6.7). Alabama scores less (76.9 PPG) than A&M and allows more (71.8 PPG). The pick: I;m not sure the fact that Alabama leads the all-time series 10-5, including a 5-1 mark at home, means all that much.A&M is playing with great confidence and I'll ride them here in making the Aggies a 10* play. |
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12-30-17 | Tennessee +6 v. Arkansas | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tennessee Volunteers and Arkansas Razorbacks open their SEC schedules with this afternoon tip from Bud Walton Arena. The Vols are coming off a 16-16 season and were picked 13th in the preseason SEC media poll. Howecver, Tennessee's 9-2 start has them ranked 19th in the latest AP poll. The Vols' SEC opener will be a tough one in Fayetteville, as the Razorbacks are 10-2, are the SEC's highest scoring team at 90.0 PPG (8th in the nation) and check in at 13th in the latest RPI rankings (the Vols are 8th). Tennessee: The Vols look like a potential cSEC title contender, as their only losses have come against top-10 teams Villanova (85-76) and North Carolina (78-73). Tennessee's list of 'victims' includes nationally-ranked Purdue (78-75 in OT) plus three ACC schools, N.C. State (67-58), Georgia Tech (77-70) and Wake Forest (79-60). Forward Grant Williams is pacing the squad in scoring (15.4 points) and rebounding (6.6) while guard Jordan Bowden (12.0) and small forward Admiral Schofield (11.9 & 5.2) also are averaging double figures. Guards James Daniel (3.6 assists) and Jordan Bone (3.5) are setting the table for the offense, which has recorded assists on 66.9 percent of its made field goals, a rate which ranks only behind SMU (67.8) and Michigan State (67.3) nationally. The Vols can't match Arkansas on the offensive end of the court (Tennessee is averaging 77.5 PPG) but Tennessee is holding opponents to 65.8 PPG (51st) on 39.0% shooting (30th). Arkansas: Mike Anderson’s Razorbacks are off a 26-win season that ended with a second round loss in the NCAAs. The team enters on a five-game winning streak and checks in at 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS at home, where Arkansas has outscored opponents 95.0-to-69.4 PPG. Guard Jaylen Barford leads five double-figure scorers with 18.6 points and is shooting a team-best 46.4 percent from three-point range. Guards Daryl Macon (15.3 points), Anton Beard (12.1) and C.J. Jones (10.5) plus forward Daniel Gafford (11.7) also average double digits for the Razorbacks who rank 21st nationally in field-goal percentage (50.3). The pick: The series is tied at 19 wins apiece but Arkansas has won five straight and six of the last eight, including four straight in Fayetteville. Does that mean the play is on the Razorbacks? Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said in a post-practice news conference Thursday regarding the Razorbacks, “Arkansas is a great transition team which can really explode on you.” The Razorbacks can score in bunches and are a multiple defensive team with a lot of depth. It should be a game that’s really an up-and-down game.” However, Barnes' team ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency and matches up well. Make Tennessee an 8* play. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: 7-5 Iowa State (5-4 in the Big 12) and 10-2 Memphis (7-1 in the AAC) will square off in this year's Liberty Bowl from Memphis, Tn. The Cyclones come in having lost three of their last four games but they own wins at Oklahoma (then-No. 3 in the AP poll) 38-31 and at home '14-7 over TCU (then No.4 in the AP poll). Memphis made it all the way to a second overtime in the most entertaining of all the conference championship games before falling 62-55 at UCF, the lone unbeaten team in FBS. The loss cost the Tigers a chance to go to a New Year's Six bowl. Iowa State: Senior QB Kyle Kempt had thrown just two passes in his career before taking over for Jacob Park, who went on leave for undisclosed personal medical reasons. His first game was the upset of Oklahoma and he's thrown for 1,473 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs, since. RB David Montgomery leads the Iowa State rushing attack with 1,094 yards (4.7 YPC) and 11 TDs. Iowa State averages 29.9 PPG (52nd) but has relied more on its defense, which comes in allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 368.4 YPG (45th). Iowa State managed to hang onto its head coach, as Matt Campbell (named the Big 12 Coach of the Year) signed a six-year extension worth a reported $3.5 million annually. Campbell's defense limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 20 or fewer points. Memphis:The Tigers had a great run going with seven straight wins but fell in their last outing to UCF in two overtimes. In that one, Memphis QB Riley Ferguson put up 471 yards and four TDs with one INT but it wasn't enough. Ferguson has 3,971 passing yards with 36 TDs just nine INTs. RB Darrell Henderson is the top Memphis rusher with 1,161 yards (8.9 YPC with 9 TDs) and was supported by Taylor, who ran for 807 yards on 5.8 YPC with 13 TDs. WR Anthony Miller has 92 catches for 1407 yards (15.3 YPC) with 17 TDs. Memphis checks in averaging 47.7 PPG (2nd) on 548.2 YPG (4th). The pick: Iowa State was "looking good" at 6-2 at the end of October but the Cyclones got off track in their last four games with only a win over Baylor in that time, while scoring 23 points or less three ttmes in that span. Sure, Memphis couldn't best nemesis UCF in two tries but the Tigers come in scoring at least 41 points in seven of their last eight games. Just in case you may not be aware, the Liberty Bowl is Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers enter 22-4 SU at this venue the last three seasons, including 7-0 tn 2017, while outscoring opponents 50.1-to-30.9 PPG. Make Memphis an 8* play. |
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12-30-17 | Louisville -6.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll and were led by 2016's Heisman Trophy winner, QB Lamar Jackson. However, while Jackson actually improved on his 2016 season (more on that, later), Louisville, was only 4-3 following a 45-42 home upset loss to Boston College on Oct. 14. The Cardinals did finish strong though, winning four of their last five, including their last three. Louisville's opponent in the Taxslayer Bowl (Jacksonville, Fl.) is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs (23rd in the CFP rankings) also come in 8-4 but without two major pieces. QB Nick Fitzgerald was KO'd in the Egg Bowl vs. Ole Miss plus head coach Dan Mullen left to take the Florida job, taking several coaches with him. Running backs and special teams coach Greg Knox will serve as the interim coach, before former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead takes over the program in 2018. The Cards are 'bowling' for the 8th straight time (4-3 ATS), as are the Bulldogs, who are 5-2 SU in the postseason under former HC Dan Mullen. |
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12-29-17 | Kansas -2.5 v. Texas | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas Jaywhawks opened the year as the AP's -ranked team in it preseason poll. Kansas completed its non-conference schedule 10-2 (ias currently ranked 11th), losing only to Washington and Arizona State in back-to-back games (note: ASU remains unbeaten) .The Jayhawks last played on Dec. 21, routing Stanford 75-54 in Palo Alto. They now open Big 12 play by traveling to Austin to take on the 9-3 Texas Longhorns. The The Longhorns are coming off an awful 11-22 season, so the team's 9-3 start is a welcome sight. Texas last played on Dec 22, beating Alabama 66-50 in the Vulcan Classic at Birmingham, Al. Kansas:The Jayhawks own quite a starting-five, with all scoring in double digits. Vick (17.1) leads the way, joined in the backcourt by PG Graham (16.8 & 7.6 APG) and Newman (10.4 & 4.8). Up front, it's the 6-8 Mykhailiuk (16.3) and the 7-0 Azubuike (15.5 & 8.0). The Jayhawks average 20 assists per game, which ranks tied for third nationally, and Devonte' Graham (7.6 per game) has an assist-to-turnover ratio approaching 3-to-1. Kansas is averaging 87.5 PPG (13th) on 52.3% shooting (4th). That goes nicely with the team's excellent defensive play, as the Jayhawks are holding opponents to 65.7 PPG (50th) on 38.6% shooting (28th). Texas: Freshman Mohamed Bamba is 6-11 and he registered 17 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks in the win over Alabama. He's regarded as one of the top incoming freshmen in the country this season but has been somewhat of an enigma to this point. His per game stats (10.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.3 blocks) are solid but he has not made his teammates better (four assists in 310 minutes) and is shooting poorly from behind the three-point line (3-of-19) and the foul line (61 percent). Returning guards Jones (15.3) and Roach (10.9) are off too good starts, as is the 6-9 Osetkowski (14.6 & 7.8), although he is coming off perhaps his worst game of the season vs. Alabama, an eight-point clunker in which he shot 3-of-11 from the floor and had five turnovers.Texas can't match Kansas on the offensive end (72.2 PPG ranks 233rd and the team's 45.4% shooting ranks166th) but Texas can defend with the best of them. The Longhorns are holding opponents to 60.4 PPG (8th) on 37.4% shooting (10th). The pick:Texas' three losses have all come seven points or less and all have come against quality opponents (Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan). The Longhorns won't be pushovers but Kansas has won 12 of its last 13 meetings with Texas and just has too much "O" for the Longhorns to keep it close enough. Make Kansas a 10* play. |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 575 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The latest Cotton Bowl will be played on December 29 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, when the 11-2 USC Trojans take on the 11-2 Ohio State Buckeyes. Both schools had designs on making the 2017 CFP's 'Final 4,' as Ohio State opened No. 2 in the AP's preseason and USC began at No. 4..Ohio State and USC each won their respective conference championship games but both also had 'ugly' losses which kept them out a place in this year's Final 4.Ohio State's 55-24 loss Nov. 4 was, in the end, too much for the committee to overlook (Buckeyes ended No. 5 in the final CFP rankings. As for USC., the Trojans were never really considered for a Final 4 spot, as the school's final ranking was No. 8 (USC's 49-14 loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 21 was a deal-breaker). USC and Ohio State have had many memorable Rose Bowl meetings and the hope is that these two powerhouse programs deliver a Cotton Bowl Classic . USC: After that loss at Notre Dame, the Trojans finished the year on a five-game win streak against Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, UCLA and Stanford (Pac-12 championship game). QB Sam Darnold threw for 325 yards with two TDs. in the win over Stanford. He struggled early (9TDs and 8 INTs thru five games) but over USC's last eight games, he had 17 TDs and just four INTs. RB Ronald Jones is one of the least appreciated RBs in the nation, rushing for 1,486 yards with 18 TDs. USC's offense is just fine (34.5 PPG ranks 24th) but its defense allows 405.5 YPG (78th) and 26.3 PPG (62nd). Ohio State: Two of the most successful QBs in the nation meet in thsi one, as Sam Darnold's opposite number is Ohio State's J.T. Barrett. He has thrown for career highs of 2,939 yards and 35 TDs (just INTs), while rushing for yards 732 yards (4.9 YPC with 10 TDs). Last year's star freshman RB Mike Weber struggled early with injury issues but checks in with 608 yards on 6.3 YPC and 10 TDs. This year's star freshman has been J.K. Dobbins, who has run for 1,364 yards on 7.5 YPC with seven TDs. Ohio State's great run/pass balance has led to the team averaging 42.5 PPG (5th). Defensively, despite allowing 31 and 55 points in the school's two losses, the defense is allowing 19.9 PPG on the season (22nd) The pick: This will be the 24th matchup between the schools with rich football histories with seven of the previous games coming in the Rose Bowl (USC won four of those). If one believes in series history, the Trojans enter this contest having won seven straight meetings, including the last showdown in 2009 when they defeated the Buckeyes 18-15 in Columbus. However, that means these schools haven't met in almost 10 years, so how much do past meetings really mean? USC 'limps' in just 3-9-1 ATS this season (talk about underachieving) and just 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 versus the Pac-12. Make Ohio State a 10* play. |
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12-29-17 | Mavs v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Pelicans traded for DeMarcus Cousins around last year's All Star break, banking that he and fellow former Kentucky Wildcat Anthony Davis would form a 'Twin Towers' duo that would make the Pelicans relevant in the Western Conference. It's likely true that the Pelicans will only go as far as Davis and Cousins can take them but the hope is also that PG Rajon Rondo is capable of pushing the two big men to even greater heights. Rondo became the seventh player in NBA history, the first since 1996 and the first in franchise history to hand out 25 assists in a game when he hit that mark in a 128-113 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. "The number one thing is we got the win," Rondo told reporters. "And then me personally, I love passing the ball. When everyone touches the ball, it gives you energy and life on defense. That's what I'm a big believer in, giving everyone touches and energy on both ends of the floor." The 18-16 Pelicans will welcome the t11-25 Dallas Mavericks to teh Soothie King Center on Friday, looking for a fourth consecutive win. The Mavericks still own the worst record in the Western Conference but just finished holding a pair of high-powered offenses in check in wins over Toronto and Indiana. Wednesday's 98-94 triumph at the Pacers snapped an eight-game road losing streak for Dallas, which comes to New Olreans with a 3-14 SU road record on the season. Dallas:Toronto averages 110.6 points but was held to 93 by Dallas on Tuesday before Indiana, which averages 107.5 points, was held under 95 on Wednesday. “We stuck with it,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told reporters after beating Indiana. Offensively, 39-year-old forward Dirk Nowitzki showed little wear on the back-to-back and scored a combined 33 points on 15-of-23 shooting in the two wins. However, getting back to reality, Nowitzki is averaging only 12.1 & 5.5 on the season and Dallas struggles on offense, averaging only 99.9 PPG, which ranks 27th of 30 teams. New Orleans: Even 24 hours later, all anyone associated with the New Orleans Pelicans could talk about after practice on Wednesday was the dazzling passing display from point guard Rajon Rondo, who set career and franchise records with 25 assists in a 128-113 victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday night. "We call him 'Coach' Rondo," said Pelicans guard E'Twaun Moore, who benefited from Rondo's passing prowess by going 8 of 11 from the floor and scoring 20 points in the victory over Brooklyn. "He's always orchestrating and putting people in the right places." However, let me again offer a reality check. Injuries have limited Rondo to just 20 games this season and he averages 6.8-4.0-8.3, so he's not exactly Russell Westbrook. The Cousins (25.9 & 12.1) and Davis (25.6 & 10.4) duo is backed by guard Holiday (18.1-4.3-5.3), who is quite the complete player. New Orleans has no trouble scoring, averaging 111.1 PPG (3rd) on 49.1% shooting (2nd). However, the team's defense leaves a lot to be desired, allowing 110.9 PPG (29th). The pick: It's difficult to ignore Dallas' 3-14 SU road record plus the Pelicans come in with a 6-2 ATS record their last eight. Three Pelicans are averaging 20-plus points this month, Cousins (27.3), Davis (25.1) and Holiday (22.2) plus Rondo's return has solidified the backcourt, as he's averaging 8.3-5.1-9.8 in December. Lay it with New Orleans, making the Pelicans a 10* play. |
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12-29-17 | Kentucky v. Northwestern -7.5 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kentucky Wildcats enter this bowl game 7-5 but sure don't head into it with much momentum. The Wildcats lost four of their last six games but still have, with a victory, a shot at eight wins for the first time since 2007. However, Kentucky hasn't won a bowl game since the 2008 season. The Wildcats will square off with the 9-3 Northwestern Wildcats in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Northwestern enters this game on a seven-game winning streak and has a shot at double-digit wins for the third time in the last six years. However, the Wildcats are just 3-10 all-time in bowl appearances. These two Wildcat schools have only one prior meeting (way back in 1928!) and while Northwestern is making its first trip to the Music City Bowl, this is Kentucky's fifth. Kentucky:The Wildcats ended the regular season with four losses in six games, including a 42-13 loss to Georgia and a 44-17 loss to Louisville. QB Stephen Johnson is completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 2,048 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. The Kentucky Wildcats ground game is averaging 169.8 YPG (57th), led by sophomore RB Benny Snell, Jr. Snell ran for 1,091 yards as a freshman and surely had no sophomore jinx, running for 1,318 yards on 5.1 YPC with 18 TDs. However, Kentucky's 25.8 PPG (84th) hardly makes up for a defense allowing 28.6 PPG (80th) on 425.7 YPG (90th). Northwestern: QB Clayton Thorson is completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 2,809 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs. The ground game is averaging 160.9 YPG (70th) and Justin Jackson leads the way with 1,154 yards (4.5 YPC) and nine TDs. The senior has topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his four seasons at Northwestern. The Wildcats average 29.7 PPG (52) and unlike Kentucky, have a strong defense, allowing 19.8 PPG (16th) on 358.8 YPG (37th).. The pick: "That bad taste in our mouth from that last game hasn't gone away," Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson said, speaking of the team's 44-17 rout at the hands of in-state rival Louisville. "A lot of us are really trying to go out and get this win. Last year, we were really excited because we beat Louisville, our rival, and now we have that bad taste in our mouth and we are eager and anxious to go out and win that last game." Northwestern has won seven consecutive games - its longest winning streak since the memorable Rose Bowl run in 1996 - and is also a perfect 7-0 ATS, as well. Northwestern also has a chance to cap off a successful campaign by posting back-to-back postseason victories for the first time in program history. The Northwestern defense is for real, allowing only 20 points in its last three games, and it faces a Kentucky team that is 2-9 ATS its last 11 outside the SEC. Meanwhile, Pat Fitzgerald’s team won all seven games last season by seven points or more and has won all nine this year by at least a TD. Lay the points and make Northwestern an 8* play. |
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12-29-17 | NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-4 NC State Wolfpack (6-2 in the ACC) will take on the 7-5 Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3 in the Pac-12) in the Sun Bowl from El Paso, Texas. North Carolina St surprised many by challenging Clemson for the ACC Atlantic Division crown and has a shot at its first nine-win season since 2010. The Wolfpack finished No. 24 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. The Sun Devils averaged 40 points while winning three of their last four games to reach bowl eligibility but head coach Todd Graham was fired at the end of the regular season. However, he is staying on with his staff to coach the bowl game, with Herm Edwards set to succeed Graham as Arizona State's new head coach. NC State:QB Ryan Finley has 3,200 yards passing (63.9%) with 16 TDs and just six INTs. WRs Harmon an Meyers combined for 121 catches with each snaring four TD throws. TE Samuels led the team with 69 catches (4 TDs) but also was a short-yardage back, leading the team with 11 rushing TDs. RB Nyheim Hines rushed for a team-high 1,040 yards and nine TDs, for a ground game averaging 177.8 YPG (51st). The Wolfpack enter the game averaging 30.6 PPG (49th). The defense allows 24.8 PPG (50th) on 377.2 YPG (54th). The Wolfpack gave up just under 25 points per game, while giving up 377 yards of total offense per game this season. Senior defensive end Bradley Chubb leads the defense. He's a consensus All-American, winning the Bronko Nagurski and Ted Hendricks awards as the best defensive lineman in the nation. He has 60 tackles for losses, including 26 sacks, in his career. Arizona State: The Sun Devils are in their fifth bowl game in the last six seasons but ASU's inability to get to the Rose Bowl since 1997, plus a general downward trend, cost Graham his job. The Sun Devils had 28 victories in his first three seasons after replacing Dennis Erickson and reached the Pac-12 championship game in 2013, but they have only 18 wins over these last three seasons. QB Manny Wilkins is a dual threat. He's completing 63.5 percent for 2,918 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs. He also has 269 rushing yards (6 TDs), to go along with RBs Richard (972 yards / 5.7 YPC / 12 TDs) and Ballage (657 yards & 6 TDs). WRs Harry and Williams have combined for 132 catches for 13 TDs. ASU has a nice pass (247.7 YPG)/run (180.7 YPG) balance, leading to 31.9 PPG (40th. )New head coach Herm Edwards is keeping most of the coaching staff but defensive coordinator Phil Bennett elected to leave. Maybe with good reason, as ASU is allowing 31.2 PPG (88th) on 447.2 YPG (110th). The pick: The argument for ASU would be that the team is "circling the wagons" one last time for Graham. I'm not buying it, as NC State is easily the superior defensive team and Finley gets to throw against a pass defense ranked 118th, allowing 268.1 YPG. Make NC State an 8* play. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-4 Stanford Cardinal and the 10-3 TCU Horned Frogs meet Thursday in the Alamo Bowl, fittingly played at the Alamodome. Both team's lost in their respective conference championship games. Stanford in the Pac-12 (to USC) and TCU in the Big 12 (to Oklahoma). The Cardinal are 4-2 in bowls under head coach David Shaw and a win would also give Stanford at least 10 wins for the sixth time in Shaw's seven seasons. A victory would give TCU at least 11 games for the 12th time in school history and for the 10th time under head coach Gary Patterson. Stanford: Bryce Love is arguably the best RB in college football (maybe, not many would argue). He was a Heisman finalist and enters this game with 1,973 yards (8.3 YPC) and 17 TDs. The problem was, the Cardinal's offense was fairly one-dimensional before K.J. Costello took over as the starting QB late in the season (replacing Keller Chyrst) and finished with a total of 11 TDs against just two INTs. Costello’s favorite targets are wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside (43 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and TE Dalton Schultz, an All-Pac-12 First-Team selection. Stanford will check in averaging 32.0 PPG (39th), a good number when the team's defense is allowing just 21.5 PPG (29th). TCU: QB Kenny Hill is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 2,838 yards with 21 TDs and just six INTs. TCU averages 237.7 YPG through the air and that's balanced nicely by ground game that is averaging 176.3 YPG (52nd). RB Darius Anderson led the way with 768 yards (6.0 YPC) and eight TDs but an injury in the Big 12 title game will keep him out here. The Horned Frogs are scoring 33.2 PPG (33rd) and play defense even better than Stanford, allowing 17.6 PPG (11th) on 328.5 YPG (18th). In fact, TCU had five All-Big 12 First-Team selections on defense, including DEs Mat Boesen and Ben Banogu, LB Travin Howard, safety Nick Orr and CB Ranthony Texada. The pick: Two of TCU's three losses came to Oklahoma and the San Antonio location won't hurt the team from Fort Worth. TCU's elite rush defense will get its toughest test here vs. Love but it has allowed just 99.8 YPG (4th) on 3.2 YPC (eighth in the nation). Stanford's an old-school grind it out team and TCU's defense should handle that better than it did Oklahoma's high-powered passing game. Make TCU an 8* play. |
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Timberwolves are "making a move" with a five-game winning streak as they go for a sixth consecutive win Thursday night in Milwaukee.The Timberwolves are 22-13, which gives them the West's fourth-best record, a heady place for a franchise which last made the playoffs back in the 2003-04 season. The 17-15 Milwaukee Bucks will try to slow down the T-wolves, as well as halt a stretch during which they have lost five of their last seven games. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is expected to play, though the club is closely monitoring the injury that caused him to miss Saturday 's game. Minnesota:The Timberwolves made more than a few moves in the off-season but none was bigger than the acquisition of three-time All-Star Jimmy Butler. He has helped spur the team's improvement, this season and he scored a season-high 39 points in Wednesday's 128-125 overtime win over Denver. Butler is a big reason why a club that hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 is nine games above .500 at the 35-game mark. "He's got an unbelievable will to win, and that's what makes him so special," Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters of Butler. "When his best is needed, he's always at his best. Always been that way, and that's not going to change." Butler (21.2-5.5-4.8) is now leading the team in scoring but he's hardly the only newcomer contributing. PG Jeff Teague (13.4 & 7.3 APG), PF Gibson (11.8 & 8.1) and reserve gauard Crawford (10.0) are all making solid contributions. Then there are the etam's two standout holdovers, Anthony -Towns (20.3. & 11.7) and Wiggins (17.6 & 4.0). Milwaukee: Antetokounmpo (29.5-10.4-4.6) played through the pain on Tuesday and scored 28 points on 11-of-17 shooting to mark his 22nd consecutive 20-point effort. Coach Jason Kidd said the club will remain proactive in its observation of the 23-year-old star, who ranks second in the NBA with an average of 29.5 points. Kidd was less than thrilled with the club's rebounding in Tuesday's 115-106 loss to Chicago, saying, "That's just who we are, we can't rebound the ball. We just hope and pray that someone gets it. When that happens, we're going to get killed, and we got killed again." Milwaukee swingman Khris Middleton () was just 5-for-18 in the loss (16 points), after averaging 29.5 over the previous two contests. The pick: Thee could be bad news for Minnesota, as PG Teague (left knee) departed Wednesday's game in the fourth quarter and will undergo an MRI exam on Thursday. I like Minnesota but have become leery (and weary) of trusting them. Many expected the Bucks to emerge as a rising power in the Eastern Conference but instead, they have been something of an enigma; capable of dominant performances against the league's better squads while looking flat-out overwhelmed against some of its' worst. The Bucks have won five of the last six meetings with the T-wolves and I'm expecting Milwaukee's "A-game" in this one. Make the Bucks a 10* play. |
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12-28-17 | Valparaiso +1 v. Indiana State | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-4 Valparaiso Crusaders are off a 73-60 loss at UC-Riverside on Dec. 20 and will look to get back on the winning track Thursday night at the Hulman Center when they take on the 5-7 Indiana State Sycamores, who lost their second straight game 73-68 this past Friday at Elon. Valpo has won 28, 30 and 24 games the previous three seasons but first-year head coach Matt Lottich lost four starters off last year's team, including the irreplaceable Alec Peters. Indiana State is off an 11-20 season and had won just 15 games each in the previous two seasons. Valparaiso: This year's team has been led by returning guard Tevonn Walker (16.4 & 5.8) plus Joe Burton, a 6-10 trdansfer from Oklahoma Sttae, who sat out last year. Burton is averaging 11.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG but is currently suspended. Walker has missed some games with mono but is expected back here and is joined in the backcourt by PG Evelyn (10.4 & 3.6 APG). Valpo hasn't scored like in recent years but the team is allowing a modest 65.8 PPG (56th). Indiana State:The Sycamores are a perimeter-oriented team, with guards Jordan Barnes (17.1 & 4.3 APG), Brenton Scott (13.8 & 5.7) Qiydar Davis (10.9 & 5.4) checking in with double digtts, while Tyreke Key (9.2 & 3.8 rpg) just misses. However, this team is the very definition of average, scoring 74.9 PPG (185th) and allowing 74.7 PPG (229th). The pick: The return of Walker is important for Valpo and this middle-of-the-pack MVC team won't put up much of a fight, even at home. Make the Crusaders a 10* play. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up A pair of 9-3 teams will square off in the Camping World Bowl on Thursday in Orlando. Both the No. 22 Hokies and No. 19 Cowboys opened 7-1 and both flirted with CFP hopes. However, each faltered in November (each went 2-2), proving they didn't belong. The reward is a trip to 'Disney World.'' Mason Rudolph (QB at Oklahoma State) was once recruited by Virginia Tech, while current Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente, once a highly recruited QB in the state of Oklahoma, was recruited by Gundy, who was then a graduate assistant with the Cowboys. Hokies offensive line coach Vance Vice played with Gundy in Stillwater from 1986-88 where the two won the 1987 Holiday Bowl and 1988 Liberty Bowl alongside Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders. The schools ]have only met twice before, with each winning once. Virginia Tech: The Hokies' 7-1 start was derailed by losses at Miami (28-10) and Georgia Tech (28-22) but Virginia Tech finished up with wins over Pitt and Virginia. Freshman QB Josh Jackson has thrown for 2,743 yards with 19 TDs and eight INTs. He gets very little help from his running game, as no RB has as many as 450 yeards but the team has managed to average 167.2 YPG (61) and overall, Va. Tech averages 28.8 PPG (62nd). The fact that Travon McMillian, who led the Hokies in rushing (439 yards), has decided to transfer and will not play, won't really hurt. Veteran DC Bud Foster is still around to work his magic and the Hokies allow just 13.5 PPG (5th) on 305.2 YPG (11th). Another edge the Hokies often hold over opponnets is special teams, as they rank in the top-30 nationally in all four major special teams categories – punts, punt returns, kickoffs and kickoff returns. Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph comes in completing 65 percent of his passes for 4,553 yards with 35 TDs against nine INTs. He led FBS in passing yards and points responsible for per game (22.5). He has two extremely talented tragets, as WRs Washington and Ateman have both have over 1,000 yards. Washington has 69 catches (20.6 YPC / 12 TDs) and Ateman 54 catches (19.4 YPC / 8 TDs). Sophomore RB Justice Hill ran for 1,347 yards, the most by a Cowboy in five years, averaging 5.5 YPC with 14 TDs. and 14 TDs. It all adds up to an offense averaging 46.2 PPG (3rd) on 578.9 YPG (2nd). However, the team's Achilles Heel is a defense allowing 30.1 PPG (86th) on 400.2 YPG (75th). OSU's final two losses both came at home when the Cowboys allowed 62 points to Oklahoma and 45 points to Kansas State. The pick:This will be the Hokies' 25th consecutive bowl game but in the end, I believe Oklahoma's State's offense is just too much. The Cowboys put up at least 40 points in each of their last five games, while.the Hokies' offensive scored just 30 points over their last two games and no more than 22 in any of their last four (15.5 PPG in that span). Make Oklahoma State a 10* play.
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12-27-17 | Cavs -9.5 v. Kings | Top | 95-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs lost the opener of their three-game road swing on Christmas Day in Oakland 99-92 against the Curry-less Warriors. It was just the team's third loss in its last 22 games. It's not hard to believe that the Cavs would have loved to get the best of the Warriors in Monday's game, a rematch of teams that have met in each of the past three NBA Finals. However, Cleveland's 31.8 percent shooting percentage was the lowest of the season by a Warriors' opponent and star LBJ had a sub-par performance (7-of-18 shooting for 20 points). The Cavaliers hope to bounce back here against a Sacramento team that was awful in last night's 122-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The 11-22 Kings are opening a six-game homestand but are only 5-8 at the Golden 1 Center. Cleveland: LeBron has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games but Monday's outing marked just the third time all season that he shot less than 40 percent from the floor. However, while LBJ (28.1-8.1-9.1) was off his game, Kevin Love (20.1 & 10.4) was outstanding with 31 points and a season-high 18 rebounds for his third 30-point performance of the season.The bigger problem vs. the Warriors was Cleveland's reserves. Normally, Cleveland's reserves average about 40 points per game on 45 percent shooting but against Golden State they struggled to contribute only 21 points on 6-of-26 shooting. As for Cleveland's defense, or lack of it, the Cavs will have to improve on it if the team hopes to challenge the Warriors. Cleveland is allowing 107.3 PPG (23rd) on 46.8% shooting (25th). Sacramento: The Kings allowed 71 first-half points against the Clippers and coach Dave Joerger was disappointed in his young club's effort. "The level of focus, and being ready to go and being experienced in preparation and taking it out (onto the court), a lot of these guys are learning these things on the fly," Kings coach Dave Joerger told reporters. "We've been making a lot of strides but (we) took a step back." Sacramento misses rookie PG De'Aaron Fox (9.4-2.8-3.7) will miss approximately two more weeks with a quadriceps issue. FA, veteran PF Zach Randolph, leads the Kings in scoring (15.5) and rebounding (6.9). It's a good sign that center Willie-Cauley Stein is averaging 17.3 points (on 23-of-37 shooting) and nine rebounds over the past three games but on the season, those totals are a modest 11.0 PPG and 6.1 RPG. Buddy Hield, the key piece in the Cousins trade with the Pelicans, is connecting on 45.3 percent of his threes but the Kings expect more (and need more) out of him than is average of 12.6 PPG. The pick: Coming off the loss at Golden State, one would think that Cleveland would be focused, even against the Kings. It likely helps that on Dec. 6, Cleveland almost got caught napping, edging the Kings 101-95 as a 12 1/2-point favorite at home. The Cavs haven't lost back-to-back games since that four-game slide during the season's first month, so the Kings are likely in the wrong place at the wrong time. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This year's Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston will feature 7-5 the Missouri Tigers (4-4 in SEC play) and the 6-6 Texas Longhorns (5-4 in Big-12 play). Missouri's season is quite remarkable, as the Tigers opened 1-5 but rebounded to win six in a row, while averaging 51.3 PPG, never scoring less than 45 points in any game. The Texas Longhorns are looking for a victory which will give them the school's first winning season since 2013 and its first bowl victory since 2012. Both teams are back in bowl games for the first time in three years. Missouri: A win by the Tigers would give Missouri at least eight wins for the ninth time in the last 12 seasons. QB Drew Lock is completing a modest 58.2 percent of his passes but for 3,695 yards, 43 TDs and just 12 INTs. WRs J'Mon Moore and Emanuel Hall have combined for 1,834 receiving yards and 18 TDs while freshman TE Albert Okwuegbunam has just 25 catches with 11 TDs. Missouri's ground game is averaging 199.6 YPG (35th), led by Ish Witter (992 yards / 5.8 YPC / 5 TDs). Defensively, The Tigers had their share of trouble, especially against the pass (261.8 YPG which ranks 110th). Overall, the Tigers are allowing 31.8 PPG (94th). Texas: Sam Ehlinger is completing 56.5 percent of his passes for 1,803 yards, 10 TDs and seven INTs, while Shane Buechele has passed for 1,350 yards with six TDs and four INTs (65.8% completions)..No runner has as much as 400 yards rushing, as Texas has run for 141.8 YPG (94th) and enters this contest averaging 29.2 PPG (59th). The defense has played well, allowing just 21.7 PPG (31st) on 363.6 YPG (40th). Remember, the Longhorns play in the offense-dominated Big 12, so their defensive stats are impressive. The pick: Missouri comes in on quite a roll on offense but the Texas D should be up to the task. Texas is the more physical team and is capable of handling the smaller Missouri Tigers in the trenches. We also need to see whether or not Missouri can sustain its success with someone else calling the plays, after offensive coordinator Josh Heupel was named the new head coach at UCF. The Longhorns own a 17-6 all-time record against the Tigers and have captured 15 of the last 17 meetings. Houston is not Austin but Texas should be seeing plenty of orange in the stands. More importantly, head coach Tom Herman’s 9-1 ATS mark as underdog mark (including brief time at Houston), is tough to ignore. Make Texas a 10* play. |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-6 Purdue Boilermakers (4-5 in the Big Ten) will take on the 7-5 Arizona Wildcats (5-4 ion the Pac-12) in the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Wednesday night. Purdue lost its final seven games last year for its fifth consecutive losing season and then lost starting quarterback David Blough to a knee injury Nov. 4 against Illinois. However, the Boilermakers rallied to win their final two games and qualified for a bowl game for the first time since 2012. Arizona was picked to finish last in the Pac-12 South but won five of six conference games from Oct. 7 to Nov. 11. Yes, Arizona lost three of its last four games but a 7-5 finish is hardly a disappointment for a team with such low preseason expectations. Purdue won both prior meetings between the two schools but they occurred way back in 2003 and 2005. Each school is making its first appearance in this Bay Area bowl, which has had four different names (Think we need more bowl games?). Purdue: Starting QB Blough (65.0% / 9 TDs & 4 INTs) has been replaced by Elijah Sindelar,who has completed 55.8% of his passes for 14 TDs and six INTs while averaging 154.8 passing YPG. No RB reached 500 yards on the season, as Purdue averages just 150.9 YPG on the ground (83rd). Injuries in the backfield have opened the door for junior Markell Jones to emerge as the primary ball carrier and he was exceptional in the final regular-season game, rushing for a career-high 217 yards on 31 carries in the 31-24 victory against Indiana. Jones (480 yards / 5.2 YPC) surpassed D.J. Knox (460 yards / 5.8 YPC) as the leading rusher on the season and Knox is expected to be limited against Arizona after undergoing thumb surgery shortly after the Indiana game. The defense is allowing just 19.3 PPG (16th) on 372.3 YPG (49th) and has forced 19 turnovers on the season, finishing the regular season with an overall turnover margin of plus-3. Arizona: The Wildcats own one of the most exciting players in the nation in sophomore QB Khalil Tate. He didn't take over full time until the fifth game against Colorado, when starter Brandon Dawkins was injured on a late hit on the opening drive of the game. He stepped in to rush for 327 rushing yards in the 45-42 victory, an FBS rushing record by a QB. Tate would total 1,207 rushing yards and 11 TDs over a six-game span, before Oregon and Arizona State found ways to contain him during the final two games, resulting in losses by the Wildcats. However, he did finish the regular season with 1,353 rushing yards on a nation-leading 10.2 YPC (12 TDs). He passed for 1,289 yards (completed 61.4%) with 9 TDs and 8 INTs.Tate led the way fro Arizona's 324.8 YPG on the ground (3rd), as the team averages 41.8 PPG on the season (6th). However, the defense allows 34.1 PPG (109th) on 467.0 YPG (117th). The pick: Purdue is looking for its first winning season since 2011 (also the last time Purdue won a bowl game) and has transformed quicker than expected under 1st-year head coach Jeff Brohm, who led Western Kentucky to three consecutive bowl victories. Arizona's Rich-Rod is a money-burning 2-8 ATS in bowls dating back to his West Virginia days but I just can't help but side with the 'electric' Tate. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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12-27-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Syracuse -12 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Michigan Eagles play in the MAC and will visit the Carrier Dome on Wednesday to take on the Syracuse Orange of the ACC. EMU is 8-3 and this marks the team's second-to-last non-conference game before the Eagles open MAC play Jan. 2 at Ball State. For the 10-2 Orange, this marks the team's final 'tune up,' as ACC play will begin Dec. 31 at home vs. Virginia tech. Eastern Michigan: The Eagles are coming off a 16-17 season (7-11 in MAC play) and have to be happy with their 8-3 start. However, the Eagles do come in off a loss, as the team's three-game winning streak was snapped Dec. 22 when they lost 86-81 at Oakland (had beaten Oakland 95-89 at home on Dec. 6). EMU has three quality scorers in the 6-9 Minnie (18.0 & 6.8) and the 6-10 Thompson (17.7 & 12.4), as well as PG Jackson (17.0 & 4.8 APG). The Eagles shot nearly 50 percent from the floor against Oakland but were doomed by 5-of-16 three-point shooting and the inability to get stops on the other end. The Eagles could use more help from their bench, which totaled four points on 2-of-10 shooting last time out, but on the bright side, Paul Jackson continues to elevate his game after transferring from Eastern Kentucky. The 6-2 junior recorded a season-high 25 against Oakland and has scored in double figures every game since the season opener. Syracuse: The team's offense revolves around guards Battle (19.9) and Howard (15.5 & 6.1 APG) plus 6-8 freshman Brissett (15.6 & 9.8). However, those three shot a combined 12-of-47 against St. Bonaventure, so it's not hard to see how Syracuse lost. Even with that poor effort, the Orange took the game into OT on Friday., before losing 60-57. Syracuse only made 18 FGs in 45 minutes and misfired on 16 of its 19 attempts from three-point range. "It's hard to win when you shoot 30 percent from the floor and 15 percent from the three-point line, but this team fights as hard as they possibly can," Boeheim told reporters. Boeheim's right about that, St Bonny only reached 60 points in OT. On the season, Syracuse is holding opponents to just 64.0 PPG (30th) on 38.5% shooting (29th). The pick: James Thompson IV is a quality big man for EMU but freshman Brissett is off to a great start and should match up just fine. Expect the Orange to bounce back off that home loss to St. Bonny's, with ACC play beginning on New Year's Eve. Make Syracuse a 10* play. |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss v. Florida State -14.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-4 Southern Miss Golden Eagles will take on the 6-6 Florida State Seminoles in Wednesday's Independence Bowl. Florida State needed to win its last three games, including a 38-22 victory at Florida on Nov. 25, to become bowl-eligible for the 36th straight season. The Seminoles erupted for 157 points (52.3 PPG) during that span with wins over Delaware State 77-6 on Nov. 18 and Louisiana Monroe 42-10 on Dec. 2, after scoring 163 in their first nine games (18.1 PPG). Southern Miss also finished strong, winning its final three games while a scoring 137 points (45.7 PPG), including a 66-21 rout of Charlotte. The two schools have met 22 times (FSU leads 13-8-1) but this 23rd meeting is the first time that Florida State and Southern Miss have met in a bowl. Southern Miss:The Golden Eagles are led by QB Kwadra Griggs,with 1,793 yards, 15 TDs and just two INTs. Second-year head coach Jay Hopson effectively alternated QBs (Keon Howard had 1,199 passing yards with 8 TDs and 5 INTs) but Griggs is the established starter now. RB Ito Smith is the team's leading rusher with 1321 yards (5.7 YPC) and 13 TDs. WR Korey Robertson has 72 receptions for 1,070 yards and 11 scores. The offense is well-balanced, passing for 249.3 YPG (48th) and 189.0 rushing YPG (39) to average 30.5 YPG (50th). The defense is good, allowing 23.0 PPG (39th) on just 321.9 YPG (17th). Florida State: The Seminoles were No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but as No. 11 Alabama pulled away for a 24-7 win on Sep. 2, Heisman hopeful QB Deondre Francois was lost in the 4th0quarter with a season-ending knee injury. True freshman QB James Blackman didn’t get an immediate chance, as subsequent games vs. ULM (which would have been a good tuneup) and Miami were postponed due to Hurricane Irma. That three-week layoff hurt , as the season never got back on course, disrupted irreparably by injuries and the weather in September. At 3-5, the Seminoles had to win four of five (including theri last three), to reach bowl-eligibility. The final win Oover ULM) came after Jimbo Fisher left to take the Texas A&M job. Interim head coach Odell Haggins will coach in Shreveport before Florida native Willie Taggart, hired away from Oregon in mid-December, takes over. It's hard to judge FSU by its season stats, as he Seminoles' winning streak coincides with the improved play of Blackman (57.2 percent completion rate, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), who has thrown six TDs and three INTs while completing 60.3 percent of his passes during that span. Running back Cam Akers (930 yards, seven TDs) needs 79 yards to break the school record for rushing yards by a true freshman set by Dalvin Cook in 2014. Junior running back Jacques Patrick (687 yards, six TDs), who rushed for a season-high 155 yards and two touchdowns versus ULM, is another strong threat out of the backfield. The pick: This is Southern Miss' third appearance in the Independence Bowl and the Golden Eagles won their other two appearances. However, even though it's a "down year," for the Seminoles, this is still a game against Florida State for Southern Miss, which faces one of the nation's top programs for the last 30 years. This C-USA school is stepping up in class here vs. FSU and was handled by a combined 48-27 score vs. modest SEC East foes Kentucky and Tennessee. The Golden Eagles were also easily outclassed by Washington two years ago at Dallas in its last bowl vs. a “Power 5" foe, 44-31. Make FSU an 8* play. |
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12-26-17 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 83-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Denver Nuggets have had excellent success at the Pepsi Center this season (11-3) but are a modest 7-12 on the road. However, one could not tell that by the team's shocking 96-81 win Saturday night in Oakland, over the Warriors. Sure, Golden State is less than 100 percent but the Nuggets were 8 1/2-point road dogs and the victory ended the Warriors' 11-game winning streak. After a brief (but successful) 2-0 road trip, 18-15 Denver will host the Utah Jazz on Tuesday, beginning s a stretch of four home games in a five-game stretch. Utah has won the first two meetings this season with Denver but the struggling Jazz come into this contest at 15-19, having followed up a six-game winning streak (Nov.22 thru Dec. 4) by losing eight of their last 10. Not coincidently, some of those losses have come since center Rudy Gobert (11.6 & 9.5) went down with a left knee injury that is expected to sideline him for two to three more weeks. Utah: Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell returned from a toe sprain that robbed him of two games to score 29 points on 12-of-16 shooting in the team's most recent loss, 103-89 to Oklahoma City. Mitchell leads the team in scoring at 18.0 (also 3.1 RPG & 3.3 APG) and fellow guard Hood (17.7) is right behind him. The duo is among seven players averaging in double digits (including the currently sidelined Gobert) but the Jazz are averaging a modest 101.7 PPG (23rd). While the Jazz rank 7th in three-point percentage (38.1), the etam's triples have been hard to come by of late. Utah made just 6-of-26 long-range attempts in Saturday's loss to Oklahoma City. The defense remains good, allowing 100.7.5 PPG (5th). Denver: The Nuggets' perimeter defense held the Warriors to a 3-for-27 shooting from beyond the arc. "I can't remember seeing many teams hold that team to 3-of-27 from the three-point line," Denver coach Michael Malone told reporters. "So it's a hell of a win for us and it's going to make Christmas obviously that much merrier." Center Nikola Jokic averaged 22.5 points, nine rebounds and five assists in the two wins and he has shot 50 percent or better in four straight games. Jokic has sure found a home in Denver, averaging 16.1 & 10.3. His inside presence is desperately needed with PF Millsap (15.3 & 6.2) sidelined for most if not all of the season. Guards Harris (16.2), Murray (15.0) and Barton (14.8) are consitsent contributors and another guard, Mudiay (9.6), is expected to return Tuesday from an ankle injury of his own after missing the previous four games. The pick: The Jazz own a pair of wins (and double-digit covers) in the first two meetings this season but when one looks at Denver's 11-3 home nmark and Utah's 3-13 road record, it's tough to make a case for the Jazz. That's especially true with Gobert still sidelined. Make Denver a 10* play. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois +6 v. Duke | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
The set: Ford Field in Detroit is the setting for the Quicken Lane Bowl featuring 8-4 Northern Illinois out of the MAC and Duke from the ACC. The Huskies were 6-2 before finishing 2-2 and at 8-4 are back 'bowling' after having a streak of eight consecutive bowl appearances snapped last season. Duke's 2017 journey was quite a bit different. The Blue Devils opened 4-0 but then dropped six consecutive games. However, Duke was able to beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest in its final two games to reach 6-6. The Blue Devils ended a long bowl drought by playing in 2012's Belk Bowl (previous bowl appearance had been in 1994) but last season's 4-8 record ended a four-year bowl run. Northern Illinois: The Huskies finished in a tie for second place in the West Division of the MAC (6-2) with the tewam's signature victory coming in a 21-17 win at Big Ten-member Nebraska. QB Marcus Childers took over under center in early October after Ryan Graham suffered an elbow injury in Week 1 and Daniel Santacaterina battled turnover issues. Childers completed 57.3 percent of his passes for 1,440 yards with 15 TD against five interceptions plus added 454 rushing yards with five more TDs. He was named the MAC Freshman of the Year. Childers has five receivers that caught between 28 and 39 passes, while senior RB Jordan Huff had 740 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) in nine games. The ground game averaged 190.0 YPG (37th) but Huff is out with an ankle injury. NIU's defense has been quite good, led by sophomore defensive end Sutton Smith, the Mid-American Conference Defensive Player of the Year and first Huskie since 1993 to be named to the Walter Camp Football Foundation All-America first team. Toledo ranks 18th in total defense (328.4 YPG) and 27th in points allowed (20.8 per game). Duke: The Blue Devils looked pretty miserable during their six-game losing streak, scoring more than 17 points only once during that stretch. However, the good news is that the Blue Devils put up a total of 74 points in their last two of games (both wins). In the team's 31-23 triumph over Wake Forest on Nov. 25 (which clinched a bowl bert), QB Daniel Jones had a career-high 346 passing yards and three total TDs (two passing / one rushing). Jones is completing just 55.7% on teh season for 2,439 yards with 12 TDs and 11 INTs. He's added 432 rushing yards (six TDs) to go along with senior RB Shaun Wilson (743 / 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and freshman RB Brittain Brown (660 yards / 5.6 YPC / 6 TDs). Duke averages 168.2 YPG on the ground (57th) but just 25.8 PPG (84th). Sophomore linebacker Joe Giles-Harris was a first team All-ACC and second team All-American pick and Duke's D is solid as well, allowing 20.8 PPG (26th) on 338.8 YPG (25th). The pick: Prior to Jones' big outing against the Demon Deacons, the Duke QB had passed for more than 200 yards only twice in his seven previous games.His struggles are why the Blue Devils ranked last in the ACC in passer efficiency rating (110.3) and greatly contributed to why Duke ranked 12th in ACC scoring offense (25.8 points per game). NIU's Sutton Smith will likely be the most impactful player on the field, as the DE leads the FBS in sacks (14), tackles for loss (28.5), pressures (73) and defensive touchdowns (two), all school records. He enters just 3 1/2 tackles for a loss away from the NCAA single-season record of 32 set by Western Michigan's Jason Babin in 2003. The Huskies are no strangers to Detroit and Ford Field, playing here in six consecutive MAC championship games from 2010-15. Make Northern Illinois a 10* play.
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 40 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Heart of Dallas Bowl will be played at the Cotton Bowl and features the 6-6 Utah Utes and the 7-5 West Virginia Mountaineers.The Utes opened the season 4-0 but lost six of their last eight games and with a loss here would experience a losing season for the first time since 2013. The Big Ten couldn’t fulfill its allotted slot opposite the Big 12’s West Virginia but the officials still wanted a matchup of Power Five teams. Utah needed a 34-13 win over visiting Colorado in its regular-season finale to become bowl eligible, giving the Pac-12 nine postseason teams. West Virginia heads into the bowl season splitting its last eight games and has a shot to earn at least eight victories for the third straight year. Utah: The Utes have used two QBs in 2017, Tyler Huntley and Troy Williams. Huntley has seen the most action, throwing for 2,246 yards with 15 TDs and 10 INTs. Williams has thrown for 812 yards with two TDs and four INTs. Huntley is probable for this game and was 5-4 as a starter, ranking 15th nationally with an average of 302.9 YPG of total offense. If Huntley can’t play, the Utes have a capable backup in senior Troy Williams, who is 10-6 as a starter over the last two seasons, including a 9-4 mark a year ago. Whomever is throwing passes, WR Darren Carrington II, an Oregon transfer, is the No.1 target (68 catches / 6 TDs). The rushing attack averages 161.2 YPG (69th) and Utah's 29.5 PPG ranks 57th. The defense is solid, allowing 23.9 PPG (43rd) on 353.5 YPG (32nd). West Virginia: Will Grier, was the nation’s seventh-ranked passer in terms of efficiency with 3,490 yards and 34 TD passes but had surgery after breaking the middle finger on his throwing hand in the first quarter of the Mountaineers’ loss to Texas on Nov. 18. Head coach Dana Holgorsen said the chances of him playing against Utah are “not good.” That would leave Chris Chugunov, who is completing 54.8 percent of his passes for 407 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Chugunov enters this game with 67 career pass attempts under his belt. WRs Gary Jennings (94 catches but just one TD), David Sills V (60 catches and 18 TDs) and Ka'raun White (58 catches and 11 TDs) make up a remarkable trio. RB Justin Crawford leads the way with 1,061 yards and seven TDs for a ground game averaging 160.8 YPG (72nd). Defense has been an issue for West Va, as the Mountaineers are allowing 31.6 PPG (92nd) on 425.5 YPG (111th). The pick: The Utes own an impressive 16-4 all-time bowl record and Kyle Whittingham has accounted for 10 of those wins for an NCAA-best postseason record of 10-1, including victories in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl over Pittsburgh (as a co-head coach) and the 2009 Sugar Bowl over Alabama. “Our secret formula is our players prepare hard and do it the right way, and that’s what it’s all about,” Whittingham said in the Dec. 3 bowl media conference call. “We don’t have a routine or a process that’s top secret. It’s just our guys in the program taking a lot of pride in bowl games, and they prepare the right way.” West Virginia RB Justin Crawford has decided to pass on this game to focus on his preparation for the upcoming NFL draft. However, his backup is Kennedy McKoy, who has proven he’s a valuable commodity, rushing for 1,037 yards (5.6 YPC). and 11 TDs in two seasons as a backup. Will Grier's absence is a bigger deal.That said, Utah limps into this contest with six losses in its last eight games. Utah's outstanding bowl record woun't help them here! Make West Virginia an 8* play. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders +10 v. Eagles | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The second-half of Week 16's MNF doubleheader features the 6-8 Oakland Raiders visiting the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Raiders' slim postseason hopes were dashed following back-to-back losses to Kansas City and Dallas. "We're just going to play to win," coach Jack Del Rio said of his team's mindset. "We're going to do everything we can to get over this 'close but no cigar' finish we had." As for the Philadelphia Eagle, they are looking for their 13th victory of the season and to secure a top seed in the NFC. The Raiders will making their first appearance in Philadelphia since 2005 Oakland: The Raiders are coming off a tough 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. QB Derek Carr was 21 of 38 for just 171 yards but with two TD passes to WR Michael Crabtree. Carr has completed 63.1 percent for 3,113 yards with 20 TDs and 10 INTs (88.4 QB rating). Crabtree has had seven receptions in back-to-back contests since serving a one-game suspension for his actions in the early going against Denver on Nov. 26. Amari Cooper (42 catches and five TDs in 12 games) was limited in Friday's practice with an ankle injury, leaving questions as to whether he'd take the field against the Eagles. Oakland ran for 122 yards, including 76 from running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has been a disappointment with 695 yards rushing, as Carr hasn't gotten much help from a ground game producing just 93.7 YPG (25th). The Raiders' offense has underachieved in 2017, scoring 20.1 PPG (22nd), while the defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (19th). Philadelphia: Carson Wentz (33 TDs / 7 INTs / 101.9 QB rating) is out for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered against the Rams in Week 14 but backup Nick Foles proved he is ready for the challenge that awaits the rest of the way. He started against the Giants last Sunday and finished 24 of 38 for 237 yards with four TD passes and no interceptions. The four scores, which went to four different receivers, were the most he tossed since he had seven against the Raiders during the 2013 season. "I just think his poise and his play-making," Philadelphia offensive coordinator Frank Reich said when asked what stood out about Foles. "Obviously, you could tell right away, he's been there before. Then he did what we needed him to do. He played good, sound football, but also be ready to make big plays. He provided that as well." Blount (717 yards on 4.5 YPC) and the addition of Jay Ajayi (356 yards on 6.4 YPC in his six games with Philly), give Philly the NFL's second-best running game, averaging 140.5 YPG. WR Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor have combined for 1,503 receiving yards and 17 TDs while TE Zach Ertz has 63 receptions (eight TDs). The Philadelphia Eagles average 31.3 PPG (2nd) and the defense is allowing 19.9 PPG (8th) on 309.2 PPG (6th). The pick: Sure, a win and teh Eagles clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed plus Philly is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) at home in 2017, outscoring opponents 35.0-to-15.2 PPG. However, the Raiders should relish the role of playing spoiler plus have ave nothing to lose. Hard to imagine Foles playing as well as he did last Sunday, as I believe the Eagles are not quite he same team minus Wentz. Take the big points and make Oakland a 10* play! |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder +4 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: James Harden became the first player since Kobe Bryant in 2007 to reach 50 points in back-to-back games when he went for 51 against the Lakers on Wednesday and then hit that exact number again against the Clippers on Friday. However, the Rockets' loss to the Lakers ended the team's 14-game winning streak and when they lost again to the Clippers (despite Harden's 51 points), Harden joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to reach 50 points in consecutive losses! The 25-6 Rockets will visit OKC on Christmas evening to face the 18-15 Thunder, who are finally beginning to get their act together. OKC has won four straight games, as the roles of their three star player are becoming more clearly defined. Houston: ""We lost," Harden (32.5-5.1-9.0) told reporters when asked about his historic scoring binge. "It doesn't matter." Maybe more notably, the last two Houston games were finished without PG Chris Paul (17.1-5.4-9.0), who left in the fourth quarter on Wednesday with a left adductor strain and sat out Friday. The All-Star is day-to-day and remains questionable for Monday's marquee matchup. "Our aura is not right," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters after Friday's setback. "These guys are a little tired. We've got to get guys back. This is an episode, a couple of episodes. The last two games, we just didn't play well enough and without the spirit and all that. Guys are kind of a little dead. Whether it's tiredness or whether they're into themselves a little too much, I don't know. We'll work on it, but obviously it's not good enough." As well as Paul's injury woes, it also can't be dismissed that cebnter Clint Capela (14.0 & 11.3), who leads the NBA with a field-goal percentage of .69.4%, sat out the last two games with a heel issue and remains day-to-day. Oklahoma City: "We're playing well," forward Paul George (19.9 & 5.6) told reporters after a 103-89 win at the Utah Jazz on Saturday. "We're playing for one another. Our defense is holding up and offensively we're starting to get a little flow." Carmelo Anthony (17.5 & 6.2) is adjusting to his role playing off the ball and Paul George is turning into a defensive stopper for Oklahoma City. However, Russell Westbrook is still "the big dog" and is running the show. Westbrook (23.6-9.5-9.9) is averaging 29.8 points on 59.8 percent shooting with 9.0 rebounds and 9.5 assists during the four-game winning streak. He collected his fifth triple-double of the month in Saturday's win. George showed off his defensive prowess with six steals against the Jazz and has multiple thefts in each of the last seven contests. The pick: With Paul and Capela both likely out, this is a tough spot for Houston, as the Thunder come in the winner of four consecutive games and six of seven. Houston took three of the four meetings last season with the Thunder, despite Westbrook averaging 36.3 points in the four games. Houston then KO'd them in the playoffs in five games. OKC has been waiting for this game in much the same way they were waiting for the Warriors to come to town back on Nov. 22, when the Thunder won 108-91. Second verse, same as the first. Make OKC a 10* play. |
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12-25-17 | 76ers +1 v. Knicks | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The 14-18 Philadelphia 76ers were 13-9 through games played Dec. 2 but as they take the court early this afternoon at Madison Square Garden for the first game of the NBA's 5-Game Christmas Day Extravaganza, they are looking to snap a five-game slide , as well as breaking a downward spiral that has seen them lose nine of their last 10 games (1-8-1 ATS)! As for the 17-15 Knicks, following this Christmas Day game, New York plays 16 of its next 20 on the road, where its woes continued with a 104-101 setback at Detroit on Friday. The Knicks are just 2-10 on the road this season, compared to 15-5 at home, where they are also 15-5 ATS. Philadelphia: The 76ers Philadelphia hope to have Joel Embiid (23.7 & 10.9) ready for a complete effort on Christmas (team is just 1-7 when he doesn't play). He was still bothered by a sore lower back in Saturday's 16-point loss at Toronto and he picked up a technical foul as frustrations began to bubble up. Rookie Ben Simmons was held to 10 points on 5-of-13 shooting in the loss, his first outing during the losing streak in which he shot below 50 percent. However, Simmons is having quite a first season, after missing all of last year, by averaging 17.1-8.8-7.7. SG Redick is averaging 16.5 PPG, SF Covington 14.8 & 6,2 and PF Saric 12.7 & 7.1 New York: Kristaps Porzingis (24.7 & 6.7) took 28 shots in his last outing and scored 29-points in Friday's loss. However, it was a positive step for the 7-3 star, who missed two games due to a groin injury before going 0-for-11 from the floor in a win over the Boston Celtics on Thursday. Four other Knicks are in double digits, Hardaway (17.8 & 4.2), Kanter (13.5 & 10.0), Lee (13.1) and the rejuvenated Beasley (10.9 & 4.1). The pick: Philly's Redick has missed the last two games with right hamstring tightness and it is unclear if he will play Monday against the Knicks. However, Embiid should play and look for Simmons to bounce back from a rare off night. Also, note that Saric has scored in double figures in 12 straight games, after finishing in single digits in 10 of his first 19 contests. The Knicks were 16-13 before last season's Christmas Day game but a loss on the holiday to the Celtics kicked off a 1-10 swoon. Deja vu? I'm making the 76ers an 8* play. |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: NBC's Week 16 Sunday Night Football features the 8-6 Seattle Seahawks visiting the 8-6 Dallas Cowboys in "Jerry's House." The playoff implications are massive for both teams. When Seattle beat the Eagles 24-10 back in Week 14, the 8-4 Seahawks were "right there" with the 9-3 Rams' for the NFC West crown and looked to have a decent chance of claiming a wild card playoff spot even if the division title didn't pan out. However, a tough 30-24 loss at Jacksonville was followed by a 42-7 humbling loss at home against the Rams. "It was just a couple of weeks ago that we played one of the best games we've ever played," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "We've got to turn it and make sure that we get right and get back, ready to go to Dallas." Seattle would need to finish 2-0 and the Rams 0-2 for the Seahawks to win the NFC West and the team's path to a wild card spot is not any easier. As for Dallas, yes the Cowboys have won three straight and "Zeke" is back for this game but if Dallas loses here, a victory by Atlanta would seal the Cowboys' fate. Seattle: The Seahawks' defense has allowed 72 points while losing its last two games, and the team's horrific showing against the Rams placed the team in a must-win situation and as noted above, winning only means something if other teams lose. QB Russell Wilson has been a "one-man" show on offense in 2017 but he was just 14 of 30 for for 142 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) against the Rams and one knows it's bad news when his 39 rushing yards represented a team high. Seattle's defense has been devastated by injuries for weeks now but the unit had held it together, before imploding these last two weeks. Dallas The Cowboys not only missed Elliott for six game but LT Smith plus LB Lee missed key time while the Cowboys lost three in a row, scoring a total of just 22 points along the way. However, Smith and Lee have gotten back on the field, with Dallas winning three in a row over Washington (38-10), the NY Giants (30-10) and Oakland (20-17). Now, Elliott returns. Elliott had 26 or more carries in each of his final four games prior to the suspension and his presence should help second-year QB Dak Prescott (2,964 yards, 21 TDs), who has thrown 11 interceptions this season after being picked off just four times last year. The pick: Yes, Elliott is back but LT Tyron Smith (knee) could sit out after being injured in last Sunday's victory over Oakland. Seattle's defense has been ravaged by injuries but the hope is that Pro Bowl middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and outside linebacker K.J. Wright (concussion) will be close to full strength. "The money" seems to be all on the Cowboys but I like Seattle in a desperate situation plus coming off that humiliating loss to the Rams (at home, no less). Dallas is just 3-4 ATS at home in 2017 and even last year's 13-3 division-winning team finished just 5-4 ATS at home after losing to the Packers in the postseason. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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12-24-17 | Broncos v. Redskins -3.5 | Top | 11-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Denver Broncos opened the 2017 season 3-1 but then lost eight consecutive games, failing to cover each and every one. However, the Broncos "stopped the bleeding" with a 23-0 home shut out of the Jets in Week 14 and then won 25-13 at the Indianapolis Colts in the Week 15 edition of Thursday night football. The Broncos look to build on those back-to-back wins when they visit from FedEx Field.ton on Christmas Eve Day for a meeting with the 6-8 Washington Redskins. The Redskins were eliminated from postseason contention despite a 20-15 win over Arizona in their last outing but Denver: Trevor Siemian passed for 67 yards and an interception before leaving due to injury (suffered a partially dislocated shoulder ) against Indianapolis and was placed on injured reserve..Brock Osweiler completed 12 of 17 passes for 194 yards and two TDs in the win. With Siemian on IR, head coach Vance Joseph will choose between Osweiler and Paxton Lynch as possible starters this week. Lynch has been considered the team's quarterback of the future but suffered an ankle injury at Oakland on Nov. 26 in his only start of the year and is trying to get back before the season ends. "My concern is making sure he's healthy enough to play at a high level," Joseph told the team's website. "He's a quarterback that can use his legs when he's in danger, so I want to make sure that he's right." C.J. Anderson rushed for 158 yards on 30 carries against theg Colts but he hasn't done much all season, coming in awith a 'quiet' 858 yards rushing. The Broncos are averaging a modest 113.1 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver still owns a playoff-caliber defense, as no team has allowed fewer yards per game (276.8) However, Denver's allowed 23.4 PPG (20th), which dosen't quite add up. Washington: The Redskins beat the Cardinals 31-19 last Sunday with QB Kirk Cousins going 18 of 26 for 196 yards and two TDs. Cousins has put together another excellent season (66.1% for 3,636 yards with 24 TDs and 9 INTs / 98.9 QB rating) but his status for next season (free agent) is still up in the air. The Washintong D had four sacks, an interception and a recovered fumble while holding the Cardinals to 286 yards of total offense last week (also Arizona was just 4 of 19 on third down) but that kind of effort hasn't been typical. In fact, Washington ranks 29th (of 32 teams) in points allowed, giving up 25.6 per game. The pick: A win here by Washington would mean the team would have recorded consecutive wins for just the second time this season. Still, the Denver QB situation is a mess (Osweiler or Lynch) and in what could be Cousns last home game for the Redskins, he just could be auditioning for the team in desperate need of a QB. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 119 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Rams finished in 2016 at just , as the NFL's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff of Cal, hardly looked like a franchise QB. However, the NFL's youngest head coach I(Sean McVay) has worked wonders with Goff in his sophomore season, while DC Wade Phillips has worked his magic with LA's defense. The result is a 10-4 record and with a win here, the Rams can clinch the NFC West (would also clinch if Seattle loses at Dallas on Sunday night). The 8-6 Tennessee Titans are off back-to-back losses and enter as one of three 8-6 teams tied for the final two wild cards in the AFC. Tennessee still has an outside shot at winning the AFC South but a wild card berth is easily the easiest path to the postseason. The Titans currently own the No. 5 seed (due to tie-breakers) and can actually clinch a playoff spot this week with a win over the Rams plus losses by the Ravens and Bills.. LA Rams: Goff was 0-7 as a starter last season, completing 54.6% with five TDs and seven INTs (QB rating of 63.6). He's been a "new man" in 2017, entering the final two weeks of the season completing 62.4% for 3,503 yards with 24 TDs and just seven INTs (98.9 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley has developed into one of the NFL's elite RBs, rushing fo 1,187 yards (4.6 YPC) with 13 TDs plus adding 54 catches for 630 yards with four more TDs. After averaging an NFL-low in points (14.0 PPG) and total offense (262.7 YPG) in 2016, the Rams are averaging a league-best 31.3 PPG on 366.5 YPG (10th). Wade Phillips' D checks in allowing 19.4 PPG (5th), ranking second in sacks (47) to only the Jags' 51. Tennessee: The Titans have hurt themselves with consecutive losses, 12-7 at Arizona in Week 14 and 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. After being held to just one score against the Cardinals, the Titans did get their offense going against the 49ers, as QB Marcus Mariota threw for 241 yards and two TD passes with no interceptions, after having been held under 200 yards passing in three consecutive games. The pick: The Rams haven’t had any success ATS against the Titans over the year but it's a "New Day" this season in LA. Sure, the Titans are 5-1 SU at home but the Rams are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) on the road. Goff and Gurley (1,817 yards from scrimmage with 17 TDs) rate a big edge over Mariota plus Tenessee RB duo of Henry and Murray. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams' D rates the edge as well. Speaking about his team's playoff chances, Titans head coach Mike Mularkey said of his players. "They know we have a great opportunity sitting right in front of us that is very reachable if we come in here the way we've come in here, with the mindset of putting in a good week's worth of preparation. We need to put 60 minutes of good football together, one game at a time." However, one could argue (and I will) |
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12-23-17 | Vikings v. Packers +9 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will meet at Lambeau Field.on Saturday night. The all-time series is tied 51-51-2, so this will be the 105th meeting. However, in the 104th meeting (back on Oct. 15. in Minneapolis on), the NFC landscape underwent a seismic shift. Vikings LB Anthony Barr took Rodgers to the turf after a e first quarter pass with Rodgers suffering a broken right collarbone. Minnesota would go on to win 23-10, its second victory in what would become an eight-game winning streak.Meanwhile, the Packers would go on to lose four of Brett Hundley's first five starts at QB. Aaron Rodgers returned at Carolina last Sunday and threw for 290 yards and three TDs but that was cancelled out by his three INTs in Green Bay's 31-24 loss.Minnesota: The Vikings dismantled Cincinnati 34-7 last Sunday, improving to 11-3. They are focused here on clinching a bye and possibly earning home field advantage for teh entire NFC postseason (would need more than just a little help from the 12-2 Eagles). Case Keenum continued his "career season" last Sunday by completing 20 of 23 for 236 yards and two TDs.Keenum (67.9% with 20 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 98.9) has five games this season with a passer rating of at least 115 and a completion percentage of 70-plus, tying Brett Favre and Daunte Culpepper's franchise record. Now how is that possible? Keenum is 9-3 as a starter but he's had help, as RBs Latavius Murray (662 yards) and Jerick McKinnon (484 yards) have stepped up nicely after rookie RB Dalvin Cook went down for the season. Minnesota's ground game averages 121.3 YPG (9th), helping the offense average 24.5 PPG on the season (10th). That's been more than enough with Minnesota's defense ranking second in both points allowed (17.3 per) and total defense (283.9 YPG).Green Bay: Rodgers gave it his best at Carolina but the defense couldn''t stop the Panthers, as Newton threw four TD passes and the Carolina ground game ran for 151 yards. When the Falcons held on for a 24-21 win on Monday at Tampa, the Packers slim playoff hopes were dashed.I don't see the Packers risking Rodgers here and let's note that in the first meeting, when the Vikings KO'd Rodgers, Brett Hundley stepped in and threw three interceptions while being sacked four times int hat 23-10 loss. Green Bay's defense relies on big plays but they have been too infrequent. The Packers kept their season alive by scoring a defensive touchdown in the overtime win vs. Tampa Bay and forcing an interception in overtime to win at Cleveland. However, at Carolina, the Packers failed to force any turnovers and gave up four TD passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 FDs. Bottom line is that the Packers are allowing an average of 23.8 PPG (21st) and have held only once team (Chicago, twice) under 20 points since Week 1.
The pick: At first blush, this looks like the Vikings are a 'lock.' However, this is still a bitter rivalry and the Packers won't forget that the Vikings KO'd Rodgers AND Green Bay's season in the first meeting. Assuming Hundley starts, he did get better after his "emergency appearance" on Oct. 15, going 3-4 as a starter. He took a seat on the bench last week but had completed 69.1% in his previous three starts, throwing six TD passes and just one INT. Sure, the Packers won't be part of the postseason for the first time since 2008 but doesn't that make them a 'dangerous dog.' We know it's expected to be "Green Bay weather," as the predicted low for Saturday night is 1!! Home dog barks here. Make Green Bay a 10* play. |
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12-23-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -4.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
]The set-up:The Clippers opened the season 4-0 and were 5-2 on Nov. 4 when they hosted the Grizzlies. Memphis won that game 113-104 and the defeat began a nine-game losing streak for Los Angeles. Shortly after improving to 6-3 with their early November win at the Staples Center, the Grizzlies went on an 11-game slide that contributed to the firing of coach David Fizdale. As the Clippers and Grizzlies get set to meet again here in Memphis, Los Angeles is just 13-18 (10th among the West's 15 teams) and Memphis is even worse, checking in at 9-23 (14th). LA Clippers:The team opened the season minus Chris Paul, JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford (among others) plus are currently playing without Blake Griffin (23.6-7.9-5.1) and Danilo Gallinari (13.4 & 4.4). LA had slumped to 11-18 (6-16 since that 5-2 start) but after beating Phoenix at Staples on Wednesday, won in Houston last night! Lou Williams (20.20 and Austin Rivers (15.4) are both enjoying career years and the duo combined for 68 points (on 13-of-26 shooting beyond the arc) in Friday's upset. Rivers exploded for a career-high 36 points and Williams poured in 32 off the bench. Williams topped the 30-point mark for the third time in December and has posted a NBA-best five such performances from a reserve. Starting point guard Milos Teodosic (8.3 points, 4.6 assists) was rested Friday but will return Saturday; the 30-year has scored more than eight points only twice in five outings since returning from a 22-game absence due to a foot injury. Memphis: The Grizzlies lost for the eighth time in nine games this past Thursday, falling 97-95 at Phoenix. It's been a long season for Memphis. Zach Randolph bolted in free agency and Mike Conley (17.1 & 4.1 APG) hasn't played since Nov. 13, due to an injury. The loss at Phoenix dropped the Grizzlies to 2-17 since Conley was given time off to deal with his injury. Memphis has had just two ":go-to" scorers without Conley, center Marc Gasol and swingman Tyreke Evans. Gasol has been terrific (18.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 blocks), making him one of two players in the league (along with the Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo) to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists and blocks. Evans checks in at 18.4-5.0-4.1. No other Memphis player is averaging in double digits. However, Gasol is listed as doubtful for Saturday with a left hip injury. The pick: Clearly, Gasol playing means a lot but I'm still going with Memphis, regardless. The Clippers played "way over their heads" last night in winning at Houston, scoring 128 points while shooting 47.3 percent from the floor (42.9% on threes). LA a is averaging 104.3 PPG on the season (including just 101.2 on the road), on 44.8% shooting, including 35.3% on threes. Look for a huge letdown here and Make Memphis a 10*! |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State +7.5 v. Toledo | Top | 34-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-1 in SBC) and the 11-2 Toledo Rockets (7-1 in the MAC) will square off in the Dollar General Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Al. on Saturday. The Mountaineers finished their season with a share of the Sun Belt Title, while the Rockets defeated the Akron Zips 45-28 in the MAC championship game.This bowl game will feature two of the nation's most efficient QBs in Toledo's Logan Woodside and Appalachian State's Taylor Lamb but the "biggest news" is that Toledo and Appalachian State will meet in a bowl game for the second straight season. The Rockets and Mountaineers played right down to the wire last season in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., as Appalachian State escaped with a 31-28 victory after the Rockets missed a potential game-tying FG with fewer than two minutes remaining.
Appalachian State: QB Taylor Lamb is completing 61.7% of his passes for 2,606 yards with 27 TDs and just six INTs.The team's offense is very balanced, passing for 223.3 YPG and 214.8 YPG on the ground to average 33.4 PPG (32nd). RB Jalin Moore leads in rushing (912 yards / 5.7 YPC / 9 TDs), while Lamb adds 539 yards on 7.7 YPC with five TDs. WRs Lewis and Hennigan combine for 91 catches and 15 TDs. Defensively, the Mountaineers are formidable, allowing 21.9 PPG (333rd) on 359.1 YPG (39th). Toledo: QB Logan Woodside has completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,758 yards with 28 TDs and just five INTs. He's got a trio of of talented receivers in Diontae Johnson (72 catches / 17.5 YPC / 13 TDs), Jon’Vea Johnson (41 cayches / 16.5 YPC / 5 TDs) and Cody Thompson (just 28 catches but 19.2 YPC). Terry Swanson is the featured back, running for 1,319 yards on 5.7 YPC and 14 TDs. The Rockets are averaging 39.2 PPG (11th) on 511.2 YPG (8th). The defense could use some help, allowing 25.6 PPG (55th) on 379.4 YPG (56th). The pick: Revenge is on Toledo's side but the Mountaineers have won 35 of their last 44 games, the best record of any Group of 5 team in that span. The Mountaineers' defense struggled for part of the year, including giving up 82 points in back-to-back losses to UMass and UL-Monroe but regained its form over the final three games by allowing just 30 total points. QB Taylor Lamb has started 48 consecutive games and he set a Sun Belt record with 90 career TD passes. I'm making Appalachian State a 10* play. |
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12-23-17 | Tennessee -1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 21st-ranked Tennessee Vols wrap up their non-conference schedule Saturday afternoon in Winston Salem against the 7-4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons of the ACC. The Volunteers have already played three ACC opponents this season, defeating North Carolina State and Georgia Tech, before losing to North Carolina last weekend. Wake Forest got off to a shaky start but the Demon Deacons have won six in a row while scoring at least 80 points in each of those contests, fighting back from a 1-4 start to enter this contest against the nationally ranked Vols at 7-4. Tennessee has won eight of 10 all-time meetings with Wake Forest, though the teams haven't faced off in a non-tournament setting since 1970. Tennessee: Rick Barnes in in his third season at Knoxville and after seasons of 15 and 16 wins (31-35, overall), he seemingly has this year's team headed towards a 20-win season. Tennessee recovered from that loss to North Carolina by defeating Furman 66-61 on Wednesday, although it was hardly a confidence-boosting win, as the Volunteers were tied with the Paladins until the final minute. The Volunteers shot only 37.1 percent against Furman, while missing 15 of their 20 attempts from three-point range. Then we have the team's 15-of-24 (62.5%) which surely wasn't anything to brag about. The 6-7 Williams (15.8 & 7.0) is the team's leading scorer and has recorded double-digit points in eight straight outings. However, he has turned the ball over 14 times in the last five games, compared to seven turnovers in the first five games. Joining ihim in double digits are guards Schofield (11.7 & 5.1) and Bowden (11.5 & 3.6). Bowden had a team-high 21 points against Furman, while Schofield had 12 points and 13 rebounds, his first double-double of the season (just the second of his career). The Vols are average offensively (77.4 PPG ranks 122nd) but pretty good on the defensive end, allowing 66.4 PPG (69th) on 39.1% shooting (37th). Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons' six-game winning streak has their seasonal average up to 80.4 PPG (77th) Guards Crawford (16.4 & 4.9 APG) and Woods (15.8) are joined on the perimeter by three more guards, averaging between 7.7 and 9.5 PPG. The 7-1 Moore (11.1 & 7.9) gets some help up front from the 6-7 Thompson (4.6 & 4.9). Danny Manning surprisingly took Wake to the NCAAs last season (19-14 record), after winning 13 and 11 games in his first two seasons at the school. Replacing big man John Collins (19.2 & 9.8) has not been easy but team's six-game win streak is promising. The pick: However, while this game will be played at Lawrence-Joel Coliseum (Wake's home court), school is out and the Demon Deacons won't have their usual rooting section. Wake Forest officials have made efforts to try to draw a big pre-holiday crowd. Faculty and staff will be admitted at no charge, while a promotion at an area mall involved $5 tickets. Yes, Wake Forest has shot above 50 percent in each outing during the team's six-game winning streak but as the head coach noted,"We're not a finished product," said Manning. The Demon Deacons are 1-4 in non-league games against ranked opponents and that doesn't bode well for this meeting with the Vols. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Tech Red Raiders finished the regular season by losing five of their last seven games but the team's 27-23 victory at Texas in the team's regular season finale got them a sixth win, earning them a bowl bid at 6-6. Texas Tech is off to the Birmingham Bowl to face South Florida, which followed last year's 11-2 record (which set a school-record for wins in a season) by going 9-2 in 2017. USF ended last season on a five-game winning streak and opened this season with seven straight wins. However, the team's 12-game winning streak ended with a last-second 28-24 loss at home to Houston on Oct 28. That contest also ended the team's run of 24 consecutive games in which the Bulls had scored 30 points or more. Then, with a chance to earn the AAC East title, the Bulls lost 49-42 on "Black Friday" at UCF (brutal loss, look it up!).Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are hoping to the end the season on a high note here in Birmingham. Tech always seems to have a QB who puts up impressive numbers. Nic Shimonek is the latest, completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,547 yards, 30 TDs and just eight INTs. WRs Keke Coutee and Dylan Cantrell have combined for 149 catches and 2,032 receiving yards with 15 TDs while a third WR, Cameron Batson, has 55 receptions. However, the ground game is averaging only a modest 141.6 YPG (96th). Tech averages 34.3 PPG () but also allows 31.8 PPG (95th) on 434.0 YPG (99th).USF: This contest will be QB Quinton Flowers' last game.He may have completed just 53.4% of his passes this season but he's thrown for 2,600 yards with 21 TDs and six Ints . He's also the team's leading rusher at 972 yards (5.3 YPC and 10 TDs). He teams with RBs Tice (878 YR / 5.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Johnson (745 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs), as USF ranks 8th in the nation in rushing yards at 265.4 per game. USF's scoring is slightly down from last year (38.3 PPG from 43.8 in 2016). However, after the Bulls' defense allowed 31.6 PPG in 2016, the 2017 edition has allowed only 22.5 PPG (36th).
The pick: The Texas Tech Red Raiders have won six of their last eight bowl games but haven’t won a game since 2013 (lost their most recent bowl game 56-27 to LSU in 2015).. Meanwhile, this is Flowers' "last hurrah." He has the opportunity to end his collegiate career as one of the most prolific offensive players in American Athletic Conference and school history. Flowers already holds or shares many school records, including wins for a starting QB (30), career rushing yards TD passes. Already the school record holder with 11,385 career yards of offense, Flowers needs just 47 more to become the conference all-time leader. Flowers also needs just 44 yards to break Marlon Mack's school record for career rushing yards, one more touchdown pass for sole possession of first with 68, just 312 yards passing to break Matt Grothe's single-season mark of 2,911 and with four scoring strikes would break his own single-season mark of 24 set last season. A repeat trip to the Birmingham Bowl may not have been what USF had in mind going into the season but with losses to Houston and UCF knocking them out of contention for a New Year's Six appearance, the Bulls have had to reset their postseason goals. USF needed OT to beat South Carolina last year at Legion Field but it should be a much bigger of margin of victory this time around. Flowers accounted for 366 yards and five TDs in a thrilling 46-39 OT victory over South Carolina in LY’s Birmingham Bowl. Make USF an 8* play. |
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12-22-17 | Montana v. Washington -5.5 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Montana Grizzlies are coming off a 16-16 season. They were picked third in the Big Sky's coaches' and media polls but served noticed they'll be in the title hunt with an 83-78 overtime victory at Pitt on Nov. 13, teh school's first win over a Power Five conference school since knocking off Oregon State in 2010. Montana (7-4) opens league play Dec. 28th, so this trip to Seattle will be the team's last non-conference game. The Washington Huskies 'fell of a cliff' last year with just nine wins (22 losses) but Mike Hopkins, who spent 22 years coaching under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, has this year's team at 9-3 entering this contest. Sure, Fultz (23.2) was the NBA's first pick in the 2017 Draft but he's the only starter not back. Montana: The Grizzlies 86-68 win over UC Irvine on Tuesday gives Montana three wins in its last four and a 7-4 overall mark.Three players average in double digits, guards Rorie (17.8-4.0-3.7) and Oguine (15.3 & 5.4) plus the 6-8 Akoh (11.1 & 6.4). Rorie was a second team All-Big Sky pick last season, Oguine just had a career-high 29 points in the win over UC-Irvine and Akoh is a transfer from Cal State Fullerton. Montana is averaging 73.7 PPG (211th), while allowing 69.5 PPG (125th). Washington: Montana's defense will be tested by a Washington team averaging 81.8 PPG (56th) on 47.9% shooting (68th). The Huskies have looked good in their non-conference slate and have won three of four after dismantling the Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 106-55 on Tuesday night with a monster 63-19 second half run. The Huskies are the only team in the NCAA to record 16 steals and 15 blocks in the same game this season, after doing it in the win over Bethune-Cookman. Freshman guard Jaylen Nowell leads the team in scoring (17.3) and has lessened the loss of Fultz. Joining the freshman in double digits are the 6-8 Dickerson (16.0 & 8.0) plus guards Crisp (13.2 and Thybulle (11.2). Crisp leads the team in assists (43) and also has made a team leading 26 three-pointers. Thybulle has 42 steals this season and ranks third in the NCAA in that category with an average of 3.5 per game The pick: Again, let me remind all that he Huskies have already matched their win total for the entire 2016-17 season when they finished 9-22 and all but one of the team's wins this year have come at home where Washington has gone 8-1. Lay it and make Washington a 10* play. |
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12-22-17 | Wizards -5 v. Nets | Top | 84-119 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Wizards seem to think that they are an elite team but their 17-14 record hardly matches the team's bravado. The Wizards head to Brooklyn for the second time in less than two weeks on Friday, hoping for a better result than their last visit. With PG John Wall, still not back from a knee injury, the Wizards lost 103-98 at Brooklyn on Dec. 12 Wall returned the next night when Washington began a 3-1 homestand that was capped by Tuesday's 116-106 win over the New Orleans Pelicans. As for the Nets, that Dec. 12 victory over Washington was their last win, as Brooklyn has lost four straight since beating Wizards. Three of the four defeats have come at home, including a 104-99 setback against Sacramento on Wednesday. Washington:Wall seems to be completely past the recent knee issues (he missed nine games) but he is shooting just 35.4 percent since returning from the knee injury. "Basically, them telling me to go out there and be aggressive and don't worry about minutes and go play," Wall (19.3-3.8-8.3) told reporters after an 18-point, 10-assist effort versus the Pelicans. "Coach has been telling me since the last game. I went out there without thinking about when I was coming out of the game or when I'm going back in, just trying to play and make the right reads." Bradley Beal (23.8-4.3-3.5) leads the team in scoring on the season but the club's hottest player right now is reserve forward Mike Scott. Scott's 24 points against New Orleans was a season high and he was 11-for-15 from the floor to leave the former Virginia Cavalier at 53-for-72 over an eight-game stretch (that's 73.6%!). Brooklyn: When Allen Crabbe hit the game-winning three-pointer with 44 seconds left 10 days ago, the Nets had won for the fifth time in eight games. However, the now 11-19 Nets have regressed, during their skid (the team's second four-game losing streak of the season) by averaging 96.8 points on 41.8 percent shooting, including 32.9 percent from three-point range. The Nets are also allowing 111.0 PPG on 51.7 percent from the floor. The Nets have fallen behind by double-digits in each game and during this streak, they are getting outscored 244-190 in the first half and 126-95 in the opening quarters. Brooklyn's losing streak continued with a poor start in a 104-99 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. The Nets allowed 64 points in the first half, fell behind by 21 points and saw a comeback attempt fall short. The Nets fell behind 36-20 after one quarter against Kings on Wednesday, as they continued a recent trend of poor starts. Brooklyn has trailed by at least 11 points at halftime in every game of its current four-game slide. losing streak. "Giving up 36 points in the first quarter — you can't get in a hole like that. It is disappointment in our defense and our defensive mentality to start the game," head coach Kenny Atkinson told the media. The recently acquired Jahlil Okafor (from Philly) has not seen any action in the last two games, as Atkinson gives him more time to get in shape and integrated into the system. The pick: Wall did not play in Washington's Dec. 12 loss at Brooklyn plus Beal made just 11 of 33 shots, going 3 of 15 in the second half. Wall is healthy here and no way Beal repeats that kind of shooting effort. After all, the Wizards had a seven-game winning streak snapped in the series in their last visit to Brooklyn but even with that defeat, Washington is 12-3 in its last 15 meetings. with Brooklyn. Make the Wizards a 10* play. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Id, home of the blue turf. The 8-4 Central Michigan Chippewas of the MAC (6-2) will take on the 7-5 Wyoming Cowboys of the MWC (5-3). Central Michigan will be making its fourth straight bowl appearance but has lost the last three years (1-2 ATS). As for Wyoming, the Cowboyswent 'bowling' last year (lost 24-21 to BYU) but this is just the school's fourth bowl appearance in the last 13 years (only win in that span was back in 2009). Central Michigan: The Chippewas were just 3-4 on the season before ending the and the year with five consecutive victories both SU and ATS. Those wins came over Ball State, Western Michigan, Eastern Mchigan, Kent State and Northern Illinois. The only team with a winning record in that group was 8-4 Northern Illinois, while Ball State and Kent State were each 2-10! QB Shane Morris has thrown for 2,908 yards with 26 TDs and 13 INTs. Central Michigan’s top rusher is Jonathan Ward (988 yards / 5.9 YPC / and nine TDs), leading a ground game averaging a modest 143.8 YPG (92nd). CMU comes in averaging 29.7 PPG (53), whiel allowing 26.8 PPG (67th). Wyoming: The Cowboys flopped out of the box (1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS) but then won six of seven (7-0 ATS) before QB Josh Allen hurt his shoulder and missed the last two games (Wyoming was 0-2 SU & ATS). Allen is said to be a potential first-round pick in the spring's draft but his shoulder injury leaves a big question mark. He’s been practicing with his teammates in preparation for this game but no one knows for sure what to expect. Allen threw for 3,203 yards last season with 28 TDs and 15 INTs but was a huge underachiever in 2017 (56.2% with 13 TDs and 6 INTs). I'm not convinced Wyoming is all that worse off without him. Whether it's Allen or backup Nick Smith, the Wyoming defense will show up and the team's stop unit has allowed just 17.8 PPG (12th) on 332.8 YPG (22nd). The pick: This venue is "familiar territory" for Wyoming, as Boise State is a MWC rival. MAC teams have not done well in recent bowl seasons and you may have caught Akron's embarrassing effort Tuesday night (50-3 loss to FAU). In non-conference road games at Kansas, Syracuse and BC, CMU beat Kansas (as do all schools) but lost 41-17 at Syracuse and 28-8 at BC. You may remember CMU losing last year's Miami Beach Bowl 55-10 to Tulsa. Meanwhile, Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl is hardly a postseason newcomer, having won multiple FCS titles at North Dakota State. Despite going 0-2 ATS to end this year's regular season, Bohl's Wyoming team is 15-7 ATS since October of 2016. I'm making Wyoming a 10* play with or without Allen. |
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12-21-17 | Temple -7 v. Florida International | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: After back-to-back 10-4 seasons, the Temple Owls lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor plus more than a few key players. Geoff Collins guided the team to a 3-1 finish down the stretch to secure a fourth straight bowl berth for the team's seniors, the winningest class in school history. Collins will see a familiar uniform on the opposing sideline Dec. 21 in St. Petersburg, Fl. when the Owls take on Florida International in the Gasparilla Bowl. Collins was the defensive coordinator for the Golden Panthers in 2010, as FIU captured a conference title and went on to win the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. As for FIU, Butch Davis took over a program which had five consecutive losing seasons and led the Panthers to an 8-4 record and the school's first bowl appearance since 2011.Temple: The Owls turned to Frank Nutile at QB for the season's final five weeks. With the exception of one bad game against undefeated UCF (four INTs), the junior finished with nine TDs and just two INTs down the stretch in the other four games. The Owls' running game is pretty sad (136.0 YPG ranks 100th) and the team comes in averaging only 24.8 PPG (93rd). Defensively, Temple ranks 73rd in allowing 27.7 PPGFIU: Butch Davis had head coaching stints at North Carolina and the Cleveland Browns in addition to his time at Miami, has a veteran at QB in senior Alex McGough, whom he calls "one of the best QBs that I've been around at all levels of coaching." McGough threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns against UMass in the regular-season finale, helping FIU set a school record for total yards (674) while matching the mark for wins in a season (eight). The Panthers racked up 379 rushing yards and six TDs on the ground, with Alex Gardner and Napoleon Maxwell each scoring twice and McGough adding 108 yards and a touchdown.
The pick: Davis may be a bit too effusive regarding McGough, who has passed for 2.791 yards with 17 TDs and eight TDs (hardly spectacular numbers). FIU averages 27.5 PPG (74th) and allows 28.5 PPG (79th) but is getting a TD here in a stadium located in Florida. The key for Temple may wind up being its ability to stop FIU inside the red zone. The Panthers led the nation in scoring percentage in the red zone with 39 scores in 40 trips while the Owls' red-zone defense was far from great, holding their opponent scoreless on just 13 percent of red-zone trips. The good news for Temple is that its offense started clicking towards the end of the season, averaging 32.8 PPG over the team's last four games. FIU should be pumped to be back in a bowl game but Temple is the better team and plays in a tougher conference. Make the Owls an 8* play. |
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12-21-17 | Bulls v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers lost a thriller their last time out, falling 119-116 at Milwaukee to the Bucks. It was just the team's second loss in its last 20 games. The Cavs return home on Thursday night and will put an 11-game home winning streak on the line against the Chicago Bulls. The Cavs crushed the Bulls 112-91 in Chicago back on Dec. 4 but the Bulls are a very different team this time around. The Bulls opened the season 3-20 with forward Nikola Mirotic recovering from a facial fracture due to a fight with teammate Bobby Portis. However, he made his season debut against the Hornets.back on Dec. 8th, with the Bulls winning 119-111 in OT. His return has jump-started the Bulls, who have gone 7-0 SU & ATS since Mirotic's return. Mirotic had 15 points and 10 rebounds in last night's 112-94 home win over the Magic and after easing his way back in his season debut (just six points), has averaged 21.8 & 8.5 rebounds in his last six games. Chicago: It's also worth noting that fellow forward Bobby Portis, the man who gave Mirotic the facial fractures in their preseason fight, has also stepped up his game and is averaging 14 points and 7.1 rebounds in 21.6 minutes this month. Chicago's bench came up big in the win over the Magic, as seven reserves combined for 54 points. No Bulls player logged more than 29 minutes last night, so the team should be relatively fresh despite playing on the second night of back to back games. "Our chemistry is great," Denzel Valentine told the Chicago Tribune. Valentine led the Bulls with 16 points. "We have to keep it up." 7-0 rookie Lauri Markkanen (14.3 & 7.9) leads five more Bulls averaging in double digits on the season (excluding Mirotic). Cleveland: LeBron James (28.2-8.3-9.2) was his usual dominant self with 39 points and seven assists in the loss to the Bucks. Yes, the Cavs lost, but the team felt good about a fourth-quarter comeback that made it tight in the end. "A couple things didn't go our way but we did a good job being resilient and coming back," guard Dwyane Wade told reporters.Wade made 4-of-6 from 3-point range en route to 14 points off the bench, returning after . "Obviously, tonight (Wade) showed what he's capable of still doing," James told the media. Kevin Love Love has seven double-doubles in his last 10 games and checks in averaging 19.5 & 10.2 on the season. The pick: For the first time in awhile,the Cavaliers will not be the hottest team on the court. The Cavs, as usual, did not practice on Wednesday. According to cleveland.com the Cavs have held just three practices since this current stretch of 18 wins in 20 games started on Nov. 11. "Guys are in here on off days every single time we have an off day," James said. "When we don't practice, guys are in here working on their game and (coach Tyronn Lue) just trusts us that we're going to be ready to go in the games, because we don't have much practice time. The Cavs may be rested but it's sure not helping the team's defense. which is allowing 107.4 PPG (23rd) on 46.9% shooting (20th). The Bulls come in averaging 111.1 PPG during thiri seven-game winning streak, so I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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12-21-17 | Iona v. Rhode Island -12 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Iona Gaels play out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and have done so with pretty good success over the years The Gaels finished T-3rd in the league last season but won the conference tourney to earn an NCAA bid (lost their first game). After a dreadful start, Iona has won five of its last six and will travel to Providence with a 6-5 record to face the Rhode Island Rams of the Atlantic-10. The Rams are off a 25-10 season in which they won the A-10 tourney and advanced to the NCAA;'s second round. Rhode Island is 6-3 so far this season.Iona: Tim Cluess has led the Gaels to 20 wins or more in each of his first seven seasons at Iona, getting them into the NCAAs four times. This year's team lost just one starter from last year's group and Cluess is using a seven-man rotation. PG McGill (13.0-4.0-5.4) leads a perimeter group, along with Much (11.4 & 4.2), Lewis (10.4) and Casimir (6.8). In the frontcourt, it's the 6-6 Crawford (12.2 & 3.0), the 6-8 Edoji (9.5 & 7.4) and the 6-7 Griffin (7.2 & 4.7). Will Iona be able to build off its recent hot streak? That's yet to be determined.Rhode Island. Preaseason All-Atlantic-10 guard E.C. Mathews (14.9 PPG last season), hurt his wrist earlier in the season and just got back on the court in the team's last game (he's averaging 10.7 PPG in three outings). Terrell (17.2) is leading the team in scoring and a deep guard group which now adds Matthews to Robinson (10.0 & 5.6), PG Dowtin (7.9 & 4.0 APG), Russell (9.0) and Garrett (8.6). The 6-8 Berry (8.8 & 4.00 could use more help form the 6-8 Langevine (4.8 & 4.2), who scored 13 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the Rams' 68-62 recent victory over Charleston.
The pick: Iona is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against A-10 opponents and Rhode Island is 5-0 SU at home, outscoring opponents 89.2-to-63.6 PPG. Lay it and make the Rams a 10* play. |
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12-20-17 | Albany NY v. Louisville -13.5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set;up: Louisville was ranked in the AP's preseason poll but are currently just outside the top-25 in Monday's latest poll, although the Cardinals are 8-2, losing to only Purdue (currently 16th) and Seton Hall (23rd). The KFC Yum! Center in Louisville be the site of tonight's game with the Albany Great Danes, who are hoping for a 'signature" win to add to the team's resume. The Greta Danes come in an impressive 11-2 but this is clearly the team's toughest test of its non-conference schedule. Albany: Head coach Will Brown is entering his 16th full season as the Great Danes' head coach and has led them to 20-win seasons or more in four of the last five years (heading towards another one this season!). He's also taken the scholo to five NCAA berths. The team won 21 games last year (no NCAA appearnace) and four starters have returned. Guards Cremo (17.8-4.2-3.3) and Nichols (15.7-4.2-3.5) plus 6-6 foreward Charles (14.9 & 5.5) are the nucleus of a team averaging 78.9 PPG (101st) on 48.2% shooting (62nd) Louisville: All must be aware of the school's off-the-court issues that cost head coach Rick Pitino his job. All things considered, the Cards have played well, as losing to Purdue and Seton Hall is nothing to be ashamed of. Five of the team's top-six scorers are frontcourt players, led by the 6-7 Adel (16.0 & 3.7) and the 6-10 Spalding (10.1 & 9.5), who is having a breakout season. PG Snider (11.6-3.5-3.8) runs the show for a team averaging 80.1 PPG (88th). Pitino's teams always played tough defesne and this "carry-over" team under head coach David Padgett, is no different. Louisville is allowing just 65.1 PPG (49th) on 37.5% shooting (14th). The pick: The Cardinals are proving that they still have enough talent to be a serious ACC contender, despite a change in coaching. Albany is no pushover and it should be noted that the Great Danes have out-rebounded all 13 of their opponents, so far. However, Louisville is a big step up in class and I'll make teh Cardinals a 10* play. |
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12-20-17 | Pacers v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: One has to wonder how the Pacers will fare here, after Monday's 'crazy' loss to the Celtics. Indiana battled back from an 18-point first-quarter deficit to take a five-point lead with 31.3 seconds remaining, only to be outscored 10-4 in a 112-111 loss! The Pacers have now dropped three of four as they visit Atlanta to take on the Hawks, who won for just the seventh time this season by beating Miami 110-104 on Monday. However, the Hawks' 7-23 record makes them owners of the worst record in the NBA. Indiana: “It’s a tough loss,” Indiana guard Victor Oladipo told reporters after his team fell for the third time in four games against the Celtics. “We dug ourselves the deepest hole you can imagine and again, fought our way back like clockwork, but we come up short again.” Oladipo scored 12 of his 38 points Monday in the final two minutes and is 10th in the NBA in scoring at 24.9 PPG (he has scored 20-plus points in 22 of 30 games). The Pacers are seventh in the NBA in scoring at 108.3 PPG but also allow 106.9 PPG to rank 21st. Atlanta: Forward Taurean Prince (132. & 5.3) led the way with 24 points in Monday's win and is shooting 49.5 percent from the floor in December, while averaging 14.7 points in nine games this month. “We’re wanting him to shoot a lot,” Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer told the media afterward. “Catch and shoot, shoot whenever he’s got daylight, driving and finishing.” The Hawks have revamped their roster (not for the better), with PG Schroder (19.8 & 6.6 APG) assuming the role as team-leader. The Hawks do have solid balance behind Schroder (seven players average between 7.1 & 13.2 PPG) but no stars. However, keep an eye on rookie John Collins from Wake Forest, who is averaging 11.2 PPG (on 59.7% shooting) and 7.0 RPG. The pick: Indiana is off a brutal loss (see above) and while Atlanta has not been winning many games outright, the Hawks check in 8-2 ATS since Nov. 30. The Pacers won two of three games against Atlanta last season, including the final two meetings of the year. However, until last season, the Pacers had not won in Atlanta since the 2013-14 campaign. The home dog barks here. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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12-19-17 | Kings +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers have shown plenty of promise this season but after back-to-back two-point losses, Philly finds itself having lost six of its last seven to fall under .500 at 14-15.The most recent two-point loss was 117-115 at Chicago last night (the Bulls have all of a sudden won straight) with Joel Embiid sitting out the opener of the back-to-back set to help manage his workload. The 76ers are back on the court tonight to welcome the 9-20 Sacramento Kings to Wells Fargo Center, who have dropped five of their last seven contests. That includes two in a row by a combined 38 points to start the team's four-game road trip. Sacramento: The Kings are last in the league in scoring (96.1 PPG), with only veteran forward Zach Randolph (15.3 & 7.0) averaging more than 12.3 PPG. Buddy Hield, the key player in last year's trade with the Hornets for Cousins, checks in at 12.3 PPG, which is disappointing. Also, while so many have heard about Lonzo Ball's rookie struggles, let me note that PG De'Aaron Fox, another expected rookie star, is not exactly 'lighting thingd up." Fox is averaging just 9.7 PPG (on 25 1/2 minutes), while shooting 40.4%, including 28.9% on threes. Adding insult to injury, Fox is questionable tonight due to a quadriceps injury.Veteran PG George Hill has raised his production level over the last three games, averaging 16.7 PPG but on the season has been another disappointment (9.8 PPG and just 2.6 APG!). Philadelphia: Embiid is averaging 24.1 & 11.0 on the season and has scored at least 25 points in four of the five games he has played this month, while shooting 47.8 percent in December. Rookie Ben. Simmons (17.4-9.0-7.9) had a huge game on Monday (19-11-9), despite missing a late chance to tie the game. Dario Saric poured in 20 of his season-high 27 points in the second half of the loss to Chicago and checks in averaging 12.5 & 6.9 on the season. The pick: Philly is averaging 109.2 PPG at home but is also allowing 107.0. That hardly makes them a reliable favorite (especially in this range!) and note that the 76ers 'limp' into this game 2-8-1 ATS their last 11. The Kings beat the 76ers 109-108 in Sacramento the first time around and should 'hang' with them here, as well/. Make Sacramento a 10* play. |
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12-19-17 | Marshall v. Xavier -22 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Marshall: The Thundering Herd are one of only 10 Division I schools averaging in excess of 90 points per game, checking in at 90.2 PPG (9th). However, Marshall doesn't much spread its scoring around, as Jon Elmore leads all of Conference USA in scoring at 24.3 PPG while fellow guard C.J. Burks adds 19.6 PPG and the 6-9 Ajdin Penava contributes 19.1 PPG to rank third and fourth, respectively (Penava also leads the team in rebounding at 9.8 per game and the conference in FG percentage at 65.2%). Marshall's group represents the highest scoring trio in the nation at 63 points per game and it needs to, as Marshall is allowing 83.9 PPG to rank 334th (of 351 Division I schools)! Xavier: The Musketeers have just one true "big-time" scorer and that's Trevon Bluiett (21.4 PPG plus 5.1 RPG). J.P. Macura (10.7) is the only only double digit scorer but six other Xavier players chip in between 6.9 and 9.7 PPG. That balance has Xavier averaging just a few points less than Marshall, at 88.4 (15th). Let's also note that Xavier's 52.8 percent FG percentage ranks second in the nation. The huge difference between the two schools comes on the defensive end of the court, as Xavier is allowing just 69.5 PPG. That's more than three 'TDs' less than Marshall! The pick: Xavier staged the largest comeback in Cintas Center history the last time out, capped by Trevon Bluiett's game-winner with seven seconds left. "We have to learn from it," head coach Chris Mack said. "Every game isn't going to be a 15-nothing run to start the game. We have to gut some out." Marshall leads the all-time series 13-11 but the schools have played only twice since 1958. Xavier has won the last two meetings, including the most recent one, 69-46 at Cintas Center on Dec. 30, 2004. Marshall can score but so can Xavier, plus while teh Thundering Herd can't slow down any team, the Musketeers can do just that, Lay it and make Xavier an 8* play. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons edged the Saints 20-17 a week ago Thursday night, giving them four wins in their last five to reach 8-5. The Saints (10-4) and Panthers (10-4) both won on Sunday, so the Falcons can ill afford a loss in Week 15's MNF matchup at Raymond James Stadium with the 4-9 Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs come in off three straight losses (to the Falcons, Packers and Lions).and are likely just looking for this highly disappointing season to come to an end. These teams met in Week 12 at Atlanta with the Falcons winning 34-20. Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards but had just one TD pass (zero INTs). WR Julio Jones had 253 receiving yards and caught a TD pas from Ryan and WR Sanu. Atlanta's running game rolled up 148 yards (5.3 YPC) with two rushing TDs. Tampa's Winston was out with an injury in that contest, with Fitzpatrick throwing for 283 yards but no scores. Atlanta: Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of TDs in that Week 12 meeting. It's also good news that Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Atlanta's running game is solid, averaging 116.8 YPG (12th) but Ryan is way off his 2016 MVP numbers. The Falcons led the NFL by averaging 33.8 PPG last season but head into this Week 15 game averaging only 22.6 PPG (15th). The defense has played well though, allowing 20.1 PPG (9th) on 319.8 YPG (7th). Tampa Bay: Winston's been back for the last two games (555 passing yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs) but the Bucs have lost both. Tampa Bay's running game has struggled all season (91.5 YPG ranks 22nd) and is surely a good part of the reason the Bucs are averaging only 20.3 PPG (22nd). Winston enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven TDs against one interception. but one wonders how much 'fight' there still is in Tampa Bay. The defense is allowing 389.3 YPG (31st) and 24.0 PPG (23rd). The pick: Atlanta entered the week one game behind the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers but both won, so a win is a must. The good news for the Falcons is that they still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” It's also good news that Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games, while the Bucs are 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games in December, as well as 23-49-1 ATS in their last 73 home games. Raymond James is not exactly a tough place for visiting teams to play! After pulling out recent must-win games vs. the Seahawks and Saints, I doubt the Falcons (with the Saints and Panthers looming) will 'stub their toes' against that sad-sack Bucs. Make the Falcons a 10* play. |
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12-18-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
Boston: "We just stayed composed and went out and executed," Boston forward Al Horford (14.3-7.9-5.4) told reporters of the strong finish. "We got some stops on defense. On the offensive end, we moved the ball pretty well. I think that was the difference. We opened up the game after that." Kyrie Irving (24.2 & 4.9 APG) led Boston with 20 points but the play of rookie forward Jayson Tatum (13.8 & 5.7) has been a key lately for Boston. Tatum had 19 points, nine rebounds, two blocks and two steals at Memphis. He leads the NBA with a 51 percent mark from three-point range and is averaging 15 points while shooting 58.6 percent overall in the team's last three wins but just 5.5 PPG on 2-of-13 shooting in the two losses. Indiana: Victor Oladipo's breakout season continued on Sunday as he scored 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting with seven rebounds. He's averaging 24.4-5.5-4.0 on the year. Myles Turner scored 16 points against the Nets and is averaging 14.7 & 7.2. His backup, rookie Domantas Sabonis (12.1 & 8.4) registered 17 points, eight rebounds and three blocks at Brooklyn. The young big men combined for 36 points and 13 rebounds in the loss to Boston last month in a game Oladipo missed due to a bruised knee. Since missing against Boston, Oladipo is averaging 30.2 points, seven rebounds and 4.8 assists over his last five games! The pick: The Pacers did not get much time to enjoy their latest win. Shortly after finishing off a 12-point victory over the Nets in Brooklyn on Sunday, they were taking a flight back home to face the Celtics. When Boston beat the Pacers for the fourth straight time, its record was 18-3. Since then, the Celtics are 7-4 in their past 11 games, and they have alternated wins and losses over the past six games. The Celtics turned in two of their worst displays of the season last week in a 108-85 Monday loss at Chicago and a 107-95 Friday home loss to the Utah Jazz. Those games were part of a stretch that has seen the Celtics allow 102.5 points since their last meeting against Indiana. However, Boston rebounded nicely from the Friday loss with a 102-93 win at Memphis on Saturday. The Celtics are 12-4 SU & ATS on the road this season, as Irving averages 25.6 points while shooting 44.7 percent from three-point range on the road, compared to 22.8 and 34.1 percent at home. Boston allows the fewest points in the league (98.1 per), while holding opponents to 43.9% (2nd-best). Meanwhile, the Pacers are allowing 106.8 PPG, to rank 21st. Defense wins and make Boston a 10* play. |
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12-18-17 | Houston Baptist v. Michigan State -33 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-1 Michigan State Spartans have just that lone 88-81 loss to Duke on their resume and should remain No. 2 in Monday' afternoon's new AP poll. The Spartans welcome Houston Baptist to East Lansing on Monday night to begin a five-game homestand. The Spartans will undoubtedly extend their winning streak to 10 in a row, with the margin of victory being only question mark. Houston Baptist comes in just 4-7 and will be at an even greater disadvantage with the ankle injury to the 6-11 Ibara (16.0 & 10.0). Houston Baptist: The Huskies can score (83.5 PPG ranks 39th) plus have been one of the top rebounding teams in the country this season, ranking 14th in rebounds per game (42.1) and third in offensive boards (15.8). With Ibara out, the 6-10 Edward Hardt (3.2 & 2.0) is the only starter above 6-6. Head coach Ron Cottrell has his team competing on the glass every night because everyone concentrates on getting to the boards. Four different players average at least 5.1 rebounds, including point guard Braxton Bonds (9.0-5.1-5.4 RPG). 6-6 freshman forward David Carahe averages 15.2 & 6.7 plus freshman guard Ian DuBose 11.4 & 5.1. The problem is a defense allowing 82.4 PPG, which ranks 329th out of 351 Division I teams. Michigan State: Trying to stop MSU's balanced starting-five seems like a 'bridge too far.' Swingman Bridges leads the way (15.1 & 6,4), teamed with an excellent guard duo of Langford (13.3) and PG Winston (13.3 & 6.4 APG). The 6-8 Ward (13.8 & 6.9) and the 6-11 Jackson (10.7 & 7.3) round out a starting-five which leads the way for an offense averaging 80.7 PPG. That's more than enough when MSU features a defense which allows a modest 62.4 PPG (20th), along with the nation's top defensive FG percentage (just 33.4%). The pick: Sure, Houston Baptist averages 83.5 PPG but Michigan State has allowed just three opponents to record more than 60 points this season. MSU's next four opponents, Houston Baptist, Long Beach State, Cleveland State and Savannah State, own a combined 15-30 record. Boredom is the team's lone concern. However, with Tom Izzo at the helm, I'm not concerned about that. Lay it and make the Spartans a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | UC-Santa Barbara v. USC -13.5 | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, struggled through an injury and academic issue-plagued 2016-17 season to finish just 6-22. However, they will take the court tonight against USC at the Galen Center.on a seven-game winning streak which has them sitting at 8-2. The USC Trojans are off a 26-win season and returned all five starters to begin the 2017-18 season ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll. However, after opening 4-0, the Trojans dropped three consecutive games before an 82-59 victory over Santa Clara on Thursday "stopped the bleeding." USC leads the series 13-1 and won the last meeting, 96-72, at the Galen Center on Nov, 27, 2016. UC-Santa Barbara: Sophomore guard Max Heidegger leads four players in double figures with a 23.4 average and has connected on 31-of-71 3-pointers (43.7 percent). Senior forward Leland King II, a 6-7 transfer from Nevada, is averaging a double-double (19.2 & 10.0) while shooting 46.7 percent from three-point range. Junior forward Jalen Canty (11.3 & 8.2) and junior guard Gabe Vincent (10.9 & 3.7 APG) complete the etam's double digit scorers. USC: The Trojans have a pair of 'twin towers' in the 6-11 Matu (16.1 & 8.5) and the 6-10 Boatwright (15.4 & 8.2) plus a excellent guard trio in McLaughlin (13.8 & 6.8 APHG), Stewart (10.5) and Matthews (8.4). The pick: USC played just seven games in the first 34 days of the season but now finds itself in a stretch where it will play six games over a 12-day period, a stretch that began with the win over Santa Clara. The Trojans could use a "feel good win" here and maybe the busy schedule will jump start this very talented team which so far, has underachieved. Note that USC didn't lose to any slouches, as the losses came against A&M (9-1), SMU (8-3) and Oklahoma (8-1). Lay the points and make USC a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | Titans +2 v. 49ers | Top | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Tennessee: The defense had eight sacks against Arizona and held the Cardinals to just 261 yards and 12 points (four FGs) but Tennessee's offense was awful. The Titans accumulated only 204 yards, as Marcus Mariota completed 16 of 31 for only 159 yards without a TD pass and one INT. The running game had only 65 yards on 22 attempts. The Titans rank 27th in passing (197.5 YPG) with Mariota throwing only 10 TD passes against 14 INTs (76.9 QB rating). The ground game was third-best in the NFL last year (136.7 YPG) but it's down to 117.7 YPG in 2017, ranking 10th. The defense ranks 9th in yards allowed (323.3 YPG) but in the more important category of points allowed, Tennessee is allowing 22.6 PPG (18th). San Francisco: Have the 49ers found their answer at QB? C.J. Beathard got hurt at the end of the 49ers' Week 12 loss at Seattle, as San Francisco fell to 1-10. That opened the door for Jimmy Garoppolo's long-anticipated 'test drive.' He's led San Francisco to back-to-back wins, 15-14 at Chicago and 26-16 Houston. He threw for 334 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 20 of 33 passing against Houston and enters this contest completing 66.7 percent for 645 yards with two TDs and two INTs (92.6 QB rating). RB Carlos Hyde has 771 yards but the etam averaghes a modest 100.8 YPG (22nd). The pick: I can see why some are leaning to San Francisco. The 49ers may nave been 1-10 but five of those losses had come by three points or less. Garoppolo is seen as a 'savior' and the fact that he has now won all four of his career starts, including his first two for San Francisco, makes San Fran a 'sexy' pick. That said, it's hard to see a 3-10 team being favored over a team fighting for a division title or wild card spot. The 49ers haven't won three in a row since the 2014 season and I say it won't happen here, either. Beating the sad-sack Bears and the Watson-less Texans is one thing, beating a playoff-contending team is another. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | Bengals +11 v. Vikings | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings finally proved human last Sunday, as their eight-game winning streak came to an end in a 31-24 loss at the Carolina Panthers. Minnesota returns home off a three-game road trip and will be "dropping down in class" to face the 5-8 Cincinnati Bengals. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North Division title with a win, while Cincinnati will miss the playoffs for the second straight season, after making five straight (and six of seven) appearances. Cincinnati: The Bengals come in off back-to-back losses, including an 'ugly' 33-7 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears in their last outing. Andy Dalton completed just 14 of 29 while throwing for only 141 yards with one TD and one INT. AJ McCarron threw for 47 yards in relief of Dalton. The Cincy running game has been a problem all season (79.4 RPG ranks 31st) but the Bengals could get back the services of rookie RB Joe Mixon (concussion). Mixon leads the team with 518 YR but averages only 3.3 YPC. Cincinnati averages only 197.8 YPG through the air, leaving them dead-last in total offense at 277.2 YPG and not much better in scoring, at 28th with 17.4 PPG. The defense has hung in there, considering, allowing a modest 20.8 PPG (13th). Minnesota: Case Keenum has been a huge surprise at QB and enters 9-3 as a starter. However, he did show some vulnerability last week, committing three turnovers (two INTs / one fumble) in the 31-24 setback at Carolina. The Vikings only ran for 100 yards vs. Carolina but overall, RBs Murray (586 YR / 5 TDs) and McKinnon (460 YR / 3 TDs) have done a nice job since the loss of star rookie RB Cook. The Vikings come in averaging 121.8 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Despite allowing 31 points at Carolina last Sunday, Minnesota's defense ranks third in points allowed on the season (18.1 per), as well as also ranking third in total defense at 293.4 YPG. The pick: The Vikings are fighting for home field advantage in the NFC and can ill afford a slip here but this is a lot of points and the Bengals are 4-2 ATS on the road in 2017. Was Keenum's TO problem last week a sign of things to come? Also note that while Dalton played poorly last Sunday, he had thrown 11 TDs without an interception in his previous six games! Take those points and make Cincy an 8* play. |
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12-17-17 | Cardinals v. Redskins -4 | Top | 15-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: This Week 15 matchup is between two playoff also-rans. It's true that the 6-7 Cardinals, who have two of their last three, have microscopic playoff chances but but they are 11th in the NFC, two games out of the second wild-card spot with only three games remaining. As for Washington, the Redskins have dropped four of their last five to fall to 5-8 and now realize even attaining a .500 record would take a three-game sweep of the team's final games. The Redskins' lone victory in that stretch came at home, a 20-10 triumph over the New York Giants (Week 12). However, Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of its four defeats in that same span. Arizona: The Cards enter off a 12-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans and hope to build off that excellent defensive effort. The Cardinals had three 3 sacks and a pair of interceptions, while holding the Titans to just 204 yards of total offense and just 26 minutes of possession in the win. However, while Arizona ranks 8th in total defense (320.6 YPG), it is allowing 24.4 PPG, which ranks 25th. The offense has to rely on backup QB Blaine Gabbert, who threw for only 189 yards against the Titans and wasn't able to get the Cardinals into the end zone (team settled for four FGs). The running game averages a woeful 81.2 YPG (30th) and on the season, Arizona ranks 26th in scoring at 17.8 PPG. Washington: Kirk Cousins had a poor game last Sunday vs. the Chargers (a 30-13 loss), throwing for only 151 yards with one a touchdown and one interception. However, he is wrapping up another solid season (65.9% for an average of 240.7 YPG through the air with a 22-9 ratio and a QB rating of 97.7) but once again, the Redskins are headed 'nowhere!' I wonder where Cousins will be headed next season? Defensively, the ‘Skins had an interception that turned into a 96-yard pick-six from Beshaud Breeland but that was about all they could hang their hats on, as they allowed 488 yards of total offense and over 35 minutes of possession to the Chargers in the loss. The pick: However, the Cardinals hardly resemble the red-hot Chargers. In fact, Arizona comes in 1-5 ATS on the road in 2017, winning onty at Indy in OT (Colts are 3-11) and at San Francisco, as part of the 49ers' 0-9 start to the season. I realize the Redskins have their fair share of injuries and are not exactly the most harmonious team in the NFL at the moment but Cousins over Gabbert (198 YPG passing with 6 TDs and 5 INTs for an 80.8 QB rating), is a bargain. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Bucks +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Is there any stopping the Houston Rockets? The 23-4 Rockets easily handled the SA Spurs 124-109 last night (Rockets led by as many as 28 points), the team's 12th consecutive win and 10th by double-digits during this impressive stretch of victories. "We have so many talented guys on this team that anyone can come in and have an impact on the game," James Harden said in a post-game television interview. "We just take it one night at a time. ... We just want it to be at a high level and play for each other." The 15-12 Milwaukee Bucks come to Houston scoring 100 points or more in 11 consecutive games (the franchise's best streak since a 12-game run during the 1990-91 campaign) but also having allowed 115 points in each of their last two games, losses to the New Orleans Pelicans (Wed)) and the Chicago Bulls (Friday). Milwaukee:The Bucks offense has jelled since the acquisition of guard Eric Bledsoe (17.4-3.8-4.4) to go with star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9-10.5-4.5) and solid swingman Khris Middleton (20.2-5.3-4.6). "You've got three guys playing at a high level with Bled, Khris and Giannis," coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Sharing the ball is the key, and being able to make your free throws. Just making a play for a teammate and finding the open guy. Guys are moving the ball. Right now, the ball is going in for us." Antetokounmpo and Middleton each scored 29 points in Friday's 115-109 loss to the Bulls, although Bledsoe was limited to 12 points. Houston: PG Chris Paul was brilliant against San Antonio with 28 points, eight assists and a season-best seven steals, as Houston improved to 13-0 with the nine-time All-Star in the lineup. Paul is averaging 26.3 points, eight assists and 3.5 steals over the past four games and has made a season-high five 3-pointers in each of the past two contests. Harden put up 28 points despite 6-of-18 shooting and has scored 20 or more in every game this season. Harden is averaging 31.5-5.1-9.3 and Paul 17.1-5.1-9.5. Add to that duo guard Gordon (18.7) plus center Capela (13.7-11.0) and the Rockets have a team the Warriors just may be concerned about by year's end. The pick: The Bucks had won six of seven games before their back-to-back losses but there is little doubt that they are struggling defensively. Milwaukee has allowed at least 100 points in seven consecutive games and ranks 28th in the NBA with a 110.5 defensive rating in December.I realize the Rockets are clearly on a roll but the Bucks have just dropped consecutive games for the first time since losing to the Mavericks and Wizards in late November. Expect at least a little let down from the Rockets off that beatdown of the Spurs and grab the big points with Milwaukee and the spectacular Antetokounmpo, who averaged 31.5 points, nine rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.5 blocks as the teams split last season's two meetings. Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | Clemson v. Florida -4.5 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 22 Florida faces a tough test in the second game of the Orange Bowl Classic, as the 6-3 Gators will take on 8-1 Clemson. Florida had dropped games against Duke and Florida State before suffering a surprising loss to Loyola Chicago but then knocked off Cincinnati 66-60 last Saturday in Newark, N.J, snapping a demoralizing three-game losing streak. "We just focused on ourselves, what we can do better, and especially our mental toughness,” Florida’s senior guard Egor Koulechov told reporters. “I thought we were really soft (during the losing streak). We took a step forward (last Saturday) with a win over a tough team.” Clemson is off to its best start since 2008-09, when the Tigers won their first 16 games, Clemson has won four games by 20 or more points and suffered their only loss of the season to Temple back on Nov. 17. Clemson: Head coach Brad Brownell goes after his 300th career win with a team averaging 79.8 PPG (97th), featuring five players averaging in double figures. Senior 6-8 forward Donte Grantham tops the team at 16.0 PPG and adds 6.2 RPG. Fellow 6-9 big man Thomas leads in rebounding at 8.8 per game and adds 12.1 PPG. Three guards join them in double digits, Reed (13.8), Mitchell (12.8 & 5.0 APG) and DeVoe (10.9). Clemson always plays good defense and this year's team is allowing just 63.9 PPG (36th). Florida: Senior guard Chris Chiozza stepped up to score the game’s final six points to finish with 15 against Cincinnati and is dishing out a team-best 6.1 assists per contest in the early going. “I wasn’t looking to take the game over,” Chiozza, who is averaging 11.8 PPG and has made 12-of-23 from three-point range overall, told reporters. “I was just trying to make good plays for my team and a couple fell into my hands.” Junior guard Jalen Hudson tops the team in scoring (19.1) and is hitting 52.7 percent from the floor, while Koulechov (16.1) is second. Both rebound well for guards, especially Koulechov, who leads the team at 6.2 RPG. Allen (11.8) makes it four double digit scorers, all guards. The two biggest contributors in the frontcourt are the 6-8 Stone (5.9 & 2.8) and the 6-9 Hayes (4.4 & 4.6). Florida can score (87.9 PPG ranks 19th) but it needs to with a defense allowing 76.9 PPG (275th!). The pick: The Gators were ranked among the nation's best after finishing off November by beating No. 17 Gonzaga in double overtime and leading top-ranked Duke in the final minutes before losing by three points in the PK80 Invitational in Portland, Or. However, that loss to the Blue Devils sent the Gators into a tailspin that saw them start December by losing to Florida State by 17 points and 65-59 to Loyola Chicago , both at home. The win over the Bearcats has to be a confidence-builder and while Sunrise, Fl is not exactly a home game, it's close (just outside of Fort Lauderdale). In fact, Florida has won seven straight in the Orange Bowl Classic. Make that eight straight, as the Gators are an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State -5.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Gildan New Mexico Bowl will be contested at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico and features the 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd (4-4 in C-USA East) and the 7-5 Colorado State Rams (5-3 in the MWC-Mountain Division). Marshall had a great start to their season, opening with a 6-1 record (a favorable schedule helped). However, the Thundering Herd struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. The Rams struggled down the stretch as well, losing three of their last four but this game marks the school's fifth consecutive bowl appearance (2-2). Marshall: QB Chase Litton who completed 60.6% of his passes while averaging 237.8 YPG (58th). He has 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Litton has now started 33 contests for the Thundering Herd, throwing 70 TD passes against 29 interceptions, His top targets are a pair of first-team All-Conference USA selections in WR Tyre Brady (56 catches / 7 TDs), a transfer from Miami, and TE Ryan Yurachek (47 catches / 9 TDs). Overall, the offense averaged 26.3 YPG (81st) on 370.1 YPG (94th). The Marshall ground game averaged.a modest 132.3 YPG (104th), as RBs King (714 yards) and Davis (671 yards) combined for 11 TDs. The defense comes in allowing 19.2 PPG (17th) on 337.3 YPG (24th) but I'll have more on that later. Colorado State: The Rams own a potent offense led by QB Nick Stevens, who completed 63.6% of his passes for 27 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 289.9 YPG through the air (ranks 23rd). Michael Gallup has 94 catches for 1,350 yards with seven TDs, The running game (211.5 YPG ranks ) is led by the duo of Dalyn Dawkins(1,349 RY / 6.2 YPC / 8 TDs) and Izzy Matthews (588 RY / 4.8 YPC / 8 TDs). An excellent run/pass balance sees the offense averaging 33.8 PPG (29th) on 501.8 YPG (10th). The defense is allowing unimpressive figures of 27.5 PPG (73rd) on 427.8 YPG (93rd). The pick: Marshall had success early in the season due to a light schedule and a defense which was holding opponents to an average of just 14.2 PPG. However, as the schedule toughened, the "D" had its troubles, allowing 26.2 PPG over the final five games of the season (Marshall went 1-4). I noted above the excellent balance CSU owns on offense and the last time the Rams played in the New Mexico Bowl (2013 against Washington St.), they scored 48 points! I realize that Marshall owns an FBS-best 10-2 record in NCAA-sanctioned bowl games (among teams with a minimum of four appearances), including going 5-0 since 2009. However, the Rams are just the better team in this matchup and expect Stevens and Co. to 'light up' an overrated Marshall defense. Make Colorado State an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boise State Broncos edged the Fresno State Bulldogs 17-14 in the MWC conference championship game, avenging a 28-17 loss at Fresno on Nov. 25. That victory clinched a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl and in the process, replaced Fresno State with a ranking of No. 25 in the AP's final regular season poll with a 10-3 record (matching last year's record). Joining the Broncos at Sam Boyd Stadium for the 26th Las Vegas Bowl will be the 7-5 Oregon Ducks (4-5 in the Pac-12 North). The Ducks opened the 2017 season at 4-1 but then dropped their next three games by a combined 82 points. However, they finished by winning three of their last four, including a 69-10 romp over Oregon State in their season finale. The schools have met only two previous times (Broncos have won both), most recently in Boise back on Sep. 3, 2009, Chip Kelly's head-coaching debut. The Broncos won 19-8 but the contest is most remembered for what happened after the game. RB LeGarrette Blount punched Boise State's Byron Hunt as the teams converged on the field afterward and the ensuing melee received national attention. Oregon: QB Justin Herbert threw for 1750 yards on 66.5% completions with 13 TDs and three INTs. Herbert was injured in Oregon's 45-24 victory over California back on Sept. 30 and was replaced by true freshman Braxton Burmeister. The Ducks went 1-4 over the course of Herbert's absence, so it's clear Oregon is a different team with him under center. RB Royce Freeman led the team with 1,475 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and a team-high 16 TDs. Fellow RB Kani Benoit added 573 yards on the ground (7.2 YPC) with 10 TDs of his own. Oregon ranks 8th in rushing at 268.0 YPG and finished the season averaging 36.7 PPG (18th). The defense did a pretty good job in holding opponents to 359.8 YPG to rank 40th, than it did in the points allowed category, finishing 77th in allowing 28.2 PPG. Boise State: The champions of the Mountain West Conference mixed and matched QBs throughout the season but currently, the team is back to its opening game starter, Brett Rypien. He completed 195 of his 308 pass attempts for 2,515 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. WR Cedrick Wilson led the BSU receiving corps with team-highs of 73 catches for 1290 yards (17.7 YPC with six TDs) but while TE Jake Roh caught a more modest 39 balls, he had a team-high nine TD receptions. The Broncos come in averaging 32.1 PPG (38th) and defensively, they've allowed 22.5 PPG (35th) on just 336.7 YPG (22nd). The pick: Let's first note that Oregon is garnering as much attention for who won't be at the game, as it is for who will be. Head coach Willie Taggart, who turned the Ducks' fortunes around after doing the same in four years at South Florida, will forego his duties after accepting the head coaching job at Florida State. Co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal will lead the Ducks in Las Vegas (he spent six years as head coach at Florida International). One must also note that Boise's leading rusher, Alexander Mattison, is considered questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the title game victory over Fresno State (he was seen in a walking boot after that game). Despite winning 10 games, to Oregon's seven, the Broncos are the underdog in this game. Oregon gets the nod as a the favorite because it's clear that the Ducks with Herbert, are a different team than the Ducks without him. It's really rather simple. Oregon averaged 52.1 PPG in the seven games Herbert played this year (note the nation's top-scoring club is UCF at 49.4 PPG) and just 15 points in the five games he missed due to injury. Make Oregon a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the first game of Saturday's Orange Bowl Classic in Sunrise, Fla., as unranked Oklahoma State (7-2) takes on No. 19 Florida State, with the schools meeting for only the second time in their histories (1964 was the first!). Florida State is one of only six undefeated teams in the nation entering Friday, having climbed into the rankings at No. 19 after extending its season-opening start to 9-0 with a 72-53 victory over Tulane on Sunday. The Seminoles now take aim at tying the school record for the best start to a season (10-0 in 2003-04). Oklahoma State has had success of its own this season but its two losses came against ranked opponents. The Cowboys lost 72-55 to No. 10 Texas A&M in November and 78-66 to No. 3 Wichita State on Sunday. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys fell to the Shockers despite career-high performances from Tavarius Shine (20 points) and Mitchell Solomon (17). Shine (11.0 & 4.2) is one of three guards averaging double digits, with Carroll (12.7 & 5.1) and Smith (10.2) being the other two. The 6-9 Solomon (8.2 & 6.2) and the 6-7 McGriff (8.2 & 5.6) are the team's best frontcourt players for a team in which the top-five scorers play on the perimeter. OSU averages a modest 78.8 PPG (113th) but remains competitive by relying on a tenacious defense that produces turnovers. The team has recorded at least 19 in each of its last three outings and the Cowboys are averaging 18.3 points off those turnovers per game. Oklahoma State allows its opponents 64.0 PPG (38th) on 40.2% shooting (65th). Florida State: The Seminoles did not have a strong shooting effort against Tulane (44.8 percent shooting from the floor, including 34.4 percent in the first half) but Leonard Hamilton's young Seminoles are solid all around. FSU ranks 23rd with 87.1 PPG and 28th in FG percentage at 50.0%. The defense allows 67.0 PPG (just 81st) but the team's defensive FG percentage ranks 16th at 37.5%. The team's margin of victory checks in at 21.0 PPG. The lone returning starter is junior guard Terance Mann and he leads in scoring with a career-high 15.6 PPG and a shooting percentage of 64.5 percent. Senior forward Phil Cofer, who has been a "no-show" the last two years, leads the team in rebounds (5.8) and adds 12.3 PPG. Joining those two in double digits are guards Angola (12.7 & 3.6 APG) and C.J. Walker (11.2). The set-up: The Seminoles have made it into the top-25 after a big week with victories over No. 22 Florida, Loyola (Md.) and Tulane, but the trick is remaining there. "We're making progress, but we're not a finished product," Hamilton told reporters. "We have 10 guys who are freshmen or sophomores. We're still growing and maturing." That said, FSU is perfect 7-0 ATS and as noted, OSU has lost to both previous ranked opponents, by 17 and 12 points. What I didn't mention earlier is that 1st-year OSU head coach Mike Boyton recently dismissed two contributing players, 6-5 junior wing Davon Dillard and highly-regarded 6-3 freshman Zack Dawson, which leaves the depth-shy Cowboys in even 'deeper' trouble. Lay it and make Florida State a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | Top | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-2 Troy Trojans (7-1 in the Sun Belt) will take on the 9-4 North Texas Mean Green (7-1 in C-USA) in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Trojans enter this game on a six-game winning streak and have a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history. The Mean Green have won eight of their last 10 games, although one of those two losses came 41-17 to FAU in the C-USA championship game (Dec. 2) and also have a shot at 10 victories for the first time in school history. The Troy Trojans are 3-3 all-time in bowl games, while the North Texas Mean Green are just 2-5 all-time in bowl appearances. Troy: QB Brandon Silvers is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,985 yards but has thrown only a modest 13 TDs (also just six INTs). WRs Deondre Douglas (48 catches) and Damion Willis (31) have combined for 1,113 receiving yards and five TDs, while Emanuel Thompson (another WR) has 38 receptions. Troy's ground game is averaging a modest 150.4 YPG (85th), as Jordan Chunn leads the way with 774 yards (5.0 YPC) and 10 TDs. The offense comes in scoring 30.0 PPG (50th). The Trojans have relied on their defense all season and come in allowing 17.5 PPG (11th) on 342.1 YPG (27th). The pick: Troy has never won 11 games in a season and North Texas has never produced a double-digit winning season, so the winner will be in 'virgin' territory. Troy comes in having won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown, after he started 3-8 in 2015. Troy owns that great upset win at LSU and the much better defense but North Texas owns an excellent offense, the much better QB and even assuming Wilson doesn't play, a running game that is capable of adding balance. I want the underdog. Make North Texas an 8* play. |
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12-15-17 | Denver v. Stanford -11 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The setup: The Denver Pioneers won 16 games last season (lost 14) and have averaged a modest 15 wins per season the last four, since last winning 20-plus games. The 5-6 Pioneers will visit Maples Pavilion Friday night to take on Struggling Stanford, which comes in just 4-6. The Cardinal 'booted' Johnny Dawkins two yeas ago but after Jerod Hasse led Stanford to just a 14-17 record last season, the team's 4-6 start this season has many wondering if the Cardinal made the right move. Denver: The Pioneers will be looking for a bounce-back effort after committing 18 turnovers and trailing by as many as 28 in Wednesday’s 83-63 loss to Northern Colorado. The Pioneers do return four starters from last season and the lone bright spot in Wednesday's loss was the play of junior guard Joe Rosga, who registered 14 points and seven rebounds, becoming the 35th member of the school’s 1,000-point club. The frontcourt is led by 6-10 senior center Daniel Amigo, who averages 16.0 PPG and 4.8 RPG. Denver averages 70.5 PPG (267th) and allows 71.5 PPG (170th). Stanford: The Cardinal are back from a much-needed break for final exams, hoping a "re-boot' will be able to remedy the team's sluggish start. Stanford enters having lost five of its last six, hardly what was expected in non-conference play. Junior forward Reid Travis was a preseason All-American and leads the team in scoring (21.7) and rebounding (7.8). Dorian Pickens (12.6 PPG last year) and Marcus Sheffield (6.7 PPG) are both injured, in the team's last game (a 76-68 at Long Beach State on Dec. 3.), leaving Stanford with just even scholarship players. The shorthanded Cardinal hope to have Pickens and Sheffield back from their foot injuries in time for the Pac-12 opener against California on Dec. 30, but Haase wasn’t able to say when freshman Kezie Okpala might be cleared academically to return. The pick: The last time out, Stanford lost to Long Beach State, for the first time in school history. A two-week break should have them highly motivated to "stop the bleeding" against a Denver team that is 0-3 in true road games, getting outscored 83.7-to-65.3 PPG. Make Stanford a 10* play. |
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12-15-17 | Spurs +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-124 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: More than a few teams made major off-season moves in an effort to compete at a level equal to that of the Warriors but so far, only the Boston Celtics (even with the loss of Hayward) and the Houston Rockets, have seemed to "have gotten it right." Houston owns the NBA's best record at 22-4 (.) and will welcome the SA Spurs to the Toyota Center looking for a 12th straiight win (longest active winning streak). The 19-9 Spurs come to Houston having more than 'survived' without their best player, Kawhi Leonard, who is certainly ranked somewhere among the top-five players in the NBA, as the Spurs own the third-best record in the Western Conference. The teams are meeting for the first time since the San Antonio knocked off Houston in six games in the Western Conference semifinals last spring.
San Antonio:Leonard sat out the first 27 games while recovering from quad tendinopathy and scored 13 points on 6-of-12 shooting over 16 minutes in his debut on Tuesday, a shocking 95-89 loss at Dallas. "I thought he was wonderful," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters of Leonard. "He's trying to get some of the rust off and that kind of thing. Obviously, he's confident. He's a heck of a player, and it was really frustrating for him to just start getting loose and have to come off the court." Leonard's return did not get the San Antonio Spurs into the win column, but both he and the organization are looking at the bigger picture. The Spurs have struggled offensively without Leonard (25.5 PPG last season), averaging only 101.1 PPG (25th). In fact, Leonard's 13 points in 16 minutes on Tuesday is more points than any Spur has averaged per game this season, save for PF Aldridge, who has been the team's lone "go-to" scoring option this season I(22.7 PPG). The surprising stat is that without Leonard, considered the NBA's top defensive player alongside of Draymond Green, the Spurs come in leading the NBA in points allowed, at 97.5 per game. Houston: The Rockets have yet to lose since Chris Paul returned from a knee injury. Paul was injured in the team' season-opener (a Houston win at Golden St.) and are now 11-0 since his return. The future Hall of Famer scored 31 points and had 11 assists in Houston's 108-96 win over Charlotte on Wednesday and comes in averaging 16.2-5.2-9.6 on the season. . "It's all about building," Paul told reporters. "You can win however many games you want in a row. It means nothing if you're not playing the right way, but we're playing the right way and still trying to get better." Harden is averaging 31.6-5.1-9.4, Gordon (18.9) is an excellent "third scoring option" and center Capela is averaging a double-double (13.5 & 11.0) on the season. Only the Golden State Warriors average more points than Houston's 114.8 per game. The pick: I doubt in will take teh Spurs long to integrate Leonard into the flow of things and a visit to Houston, the NBA's hottest team right now, should be all the motivation Pop and his veteran team needs. Take the points and make the Spurs a 10* |
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12-14-17 | Mavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-6 Golden State Warriors trail the 22-4 Houston Rockets in the West and also find themselves right behind the 24-6 Boston Celtics. However, there are 50-plus games remaining in the regular season,m plenty of time for Golden State to secure the home court edge come mid-April. Stephen Curry (26.3-5.1-6.6) has been out the last three games and is expected to be out the rest of this week (at least) while nursing an ankle injury and Draymond Green (10.1-7.2-7.3) remains day-to-day, after sitting out two of the last three with a shoulder injury, Despite all that, the Warriors won all six games of their recent road trip and will welcome the 8-20 Dallas Mavericks to Oracle Arena on a seven-game winning run. The Mavericks are tied for the West's worst record (with Memphis) but head to Golden State with a positive outlook after earning a 95-89 win over the San Antonio Spurs at home on Tuesday. Dallas: Dallas suffered single-digit losses at Boston, Milwaukee and Minnesota before coming home and putting it all together against the Spurs. The Mavericks saw guards Wes Matthews, Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea score 16 points apiece while holding San Antonio's backcourt trio of Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili to a combined 14 points. Golden State: Offense is never a problem for Golden State, regardless of which players are in or out of the lineup. The Warriors rank first in scoring (117.0 PPG), FG percentage (51.3%) and three-point percentage (40.0%). Kevin Durant (25.7-6.9-5.3) is averaging 33 points, 10 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 3.3 blocks in the last three games (with Curry out), to keep Golden State in the win column. "Our focus level is just on another level because of the injuries that we have on our team," Durant told reporters. "We have to be locked in on every single play; and that's hard to do in this league, and that's hard to do in December, especially after winning a championship."Klay Thompson (20.7) is scoring 23.3 PPG the last three and with that duo carrying the scoring load with Curry out, Golden State is also getting solid performances from role players like Jordan Bell, David West and Omri Casspi. Those three all scored in double figures in Monday's 111-104 win over the Portland Trail Blazers while going a combined 14-of-18 from the floor. "These night are really powerful for a team where guys are able to get out there who aren't usually in the lineup," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "It makes them feel good, it makes us feel good and it just strengthens the depth." The pick: The Mavericks stunned the San Antonio Spurs 95-89 in Kawhi Leonard's season debut on Tuesday night but now head to the 'lion's den' to face the Warriors. This Thursday game is the Warriors' second in a stretch of 10 in which they never leave the state of California. They play only once on the road, Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers, between now and a trip to Dallas on Jan. 3. The Mavs are 2-10 SU on the road, where they average only 97.2 PPG. Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 116.8 PPG at home and have now been back home a few days off that six-game road trip. Look out below! Lay the points and make Golden State a 10* play. |
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12-14-17 | South Dakota v. Northern Arizona +11.5 | Top | 90-77 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The South Dakota Coyotes are 9-3 and will take their act on the road Thursday night to J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, Arizona to face the struggling Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, who fell to 2-8 on the season after being defeated by the San Diego Toreros, 79-51, this past Saturday night. It;'s been a dramatic fall from grace for the Lumberjacks, who won 23 games back in the 2014-15 season (lost in the CIT championship game at Evansville), before winning just five and nine games, these last two season. The Coyotes were just 18-17 last season but had won 24 and 26 the previous two, so the school's fast start has them on pace for at least, another 20-win season. South Dakota State: The Coyotes won their second straight game after edging the Eastern Washington Eagles, 75-73, this past Sunday. South Dakota State shot 54.9% from the floor and 81.0% (17-21) from the FT-Line in the win. The team typically shoots well, as the Coyotes enter making 49.5% from the floor on the season (ranks 35th). Leading the way for the Coyotes in the win was guard Matt Mooney. who had 19 points. Mooney (16.5-3.3-3.7) is the team's top scorer, followed by the 6-10 Tyler Hagedorn (13.1 & 5.1), guard Triston Simpson (8.8) and 6-6 forward Trey Burch-Manning (8.6 & 7.5). Defensively, South Dakota St. is holding opponents to an average of 67.2 PPG (86th) on on 40.4% shooting (70th). Northern Arizona: The lumberjacks were terrible on offensive end in the loss against San Diego and couldn’t fight back after falling behind by a 47-18 margin with 16:46 left in regulation. Northern Arizona shot just 26.7% from the floor, including 20.0% (3-15) from beyond the arc. Northern Arizona is averaging only 64.1 PPG (334th) on 38.4% shooting (341st). Jojo Anderson (10.4 PPG) is the team's lone double digit scorer, although Chris Bowling (9.7) and Torry Johnson (9.2) just miss. Defensively, the Lumberjacks allow 80.3 PPG (311th) on 49.7% shooting (340th). Just a reminder, there ar 351 Division I schools! The pick: It looks as if South Dakota Sate will be one of the better teams in the Summit League this season, while it's already been a long season for Northern Arizona (see above). However, this is a 'heavy' number for the Coyotes to lay on teh road and I'm calling for the home dog to 'bark loudly' Make Northern Arizona a 10* play. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL has seen TV ratings dip in 2017 and Thursday's matchup between the 4-9 Denver Broncos and the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts won't be able to help those ratings. The Broncos snapped their longest losing streak since joining the NFL in 1970 with a 23-0 shutout of the New York Jets last Sunday and the team was able to avoid tying its franchise futility record of nine consecutive losses set way back in 1967. As for the Colts, they have lost their last four games, including Sunday in that "very snowy" game in Buffalo13-7. Denver: The Broncos have tried three QBs this season and the trio has combined for 15 TDs and 18 INTs, while sporting a QB rating of 71.1. Trevor Siemian is back as the team's starter and he didn't do much vs. the Jets, going 19 of 31 for 200 yards one TD and no INTs. The Broncos only had 273 yards and that's not new, as they enter this game averaging only 17.6 PPG (24th). However, the Denver defense was spectacular, holding the Jets to six FDs and a total of just 100 yards. Denver now leads the NFL in total defense, allowing only 280.5 YPG. However, despite shutting out the Jets, Denver ranks just 24th in points allowed, at 24.2 PPG. A big reason for that is that Denver's TO ratio of minus-14 ranks 31st in the league. Indianapolis: QB Jacoby Brissett was only able to pass for 69 yards in the snow at Buffalo and enters with just 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season (2,611 passing yards with a QB rating of 82.5). Indy's offense is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) and its defense ranks 31st in points allowed (26.4 per) and 30th in yards allowed (375.3 YPG). Frank Gore had a career-high 36 rushing attempts vs. the Bills, while gaining 130 yards. Yes, the 34-year-old needs just 59 scrimmage yards to join Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with at least 12-plus consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards. However, the Colts' running game averages only 104.0 YPG (20th). The pick: The Broncos not only broke an eight-game losing streak by beating the Jets last Sunday but they also snapped an 0-8 ATS run, as well. The Broncos are not as bad as their record but the Colts are. Make Denver an 8* play. |
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12-13-17 | Villanova -8.5 v. Temple | Top | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova jumped from No. 4 in the AP poll the previous week to the poll's new No. 1 this past Monday. No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Kansas lost (falling back) and the Wildcats leapfrogged then-No.3 Michigan State to grab the top spot. It marks the third consecutive year in which Villanova has held the No. 1 ranking for at least once during those respective seasons (the Wildcats were No. 1 for three weeks two years ago and for seven weeks LY). The Wildcats wrap up their Philadelphia series round-robin (Big 5) against a 6-2 Temple Owls team that has won three of its last four. Villanova: The Wildcats moved up in the rankings but head coach Jay Wright knows that his team can improve, particularly after a sub-par performance its last time out. “It’s always an honor to be ranked No.1,” Wright said. “It’s great for the ‘Nova Nation and we appreciate the respect of the writers and coaches. We know it’s early, though, and we need to get a lot better.” Villanova trailed at halftime against La Salle on Sunday before rallying for a 77-68 victory. 'Nova has a sweet six-man rotation, led by guards Bridges (18.1 & 6.4), Brunson (17.2 & 4.8 APG), Booth (12.7) and DiVencenzo (11.8 & 4.5). Up front, 6-9 junior Paschall (9.0 & 4.8) and 6-9 freshman (9.0 & 7.5) are the main contributors. Villanova ranks 27th with 85.6% and 34th by allowing 63.3%. Temple: The Owls can't come close to matching the Wildcats' depth, although the Owls have two quality scorers in guards Alston (17.3 & 4.1) and Rose (17.3 & 6.1). They also have a good big man in the 6-10 Enechionyia, who averages 12.6 & 6.0. Temple has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and it's reflected in their RPI. 'Nova's Wright acknowledged that when saying, "This is an outstanding team and it's Temple-Villanova at their place. We know how big a challenge this is." The Owls are averaging 74.6 PPG (196th) and allowing 68.8 PPG (111th). The pick: Villanova’s re-emergence into nation’s elite status has not made Jay Wright forget about taking care of business at home in these Big 5 rivalries. In fact, 'Nova has won 21 straight over local Big Five foes. Sure, Temple is the last team to defeat the Wildcats in Big 5 action but that was a 76-61 victory back on Dec. 5, 2012. Temple is just 2-17 all-time against the top-ranked team in the country (which 'Nova currently is) and Jay Wright has saved some of his team's better recent efforts for Temple, which was ripped by 21 points last season and has lost by double digit margins the past six times, not coming closer than 15 points in any of those six. Make Villanova a 10* play. |
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12-12-17 | Lakers +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Is the bigger story LaVar Ball bringing his traveling circus to the Big Apple with a Big Baller Brand pop-up shop in Manhattan or son Lonzo Ball making his NBA debut at Madison Square Garden, when the Lakers take on the Knicks? The Lakers had lost five straight games when they began a four-game road trip with a win at Philadelphia and then picked up another "W" at Charlotte on Saturday. They will take a 10-15 record into tonight's game. The Knicks are 13-13 on the season but are a "tough out" at Madison Square Garden. In fact, New York is tied for the Eastern Conference lead with 12 home wins after Sunday's 111-107 victory over Atlanta (12-5 at MSG, so far). LA Lakers: "This is a sign of growth for sure," coach Like Walton told reporte.2 PPG, so I'm taking the points with an LA team that's rs after the 110-99 victory over the Hornets. "And even Philly was a sign of growth because even though we blew a 16-point lead, what would've happened in the past was once we blew that lead we would've just completely melted down. ... We've been able to win some of those games at home, but on the road we haven't been able to find a way once that crowd gets into it to get the defensive stops you need to win games. We (won) in Philly and we did that again tonight." Ball is the most divisive NBA rookie in decades (thanks to his idiot father) and comes in averaging 8.6-6.8-7.1. His horrific shooting (32.1%, including 24.6% on threes) draws most of the criticism and it's not unusual for Walton to sit him down at crucial times. Kyle Kuzma (Utah) was drafted 25 spots below No. 2 pick Ball but is averaging 16.0 points and 6.7 rebounds off the bench (he started while Nance was sidelined). He has double-doubles in three of the team's last four games, his best stretch of the season in that regard. NY Knicks: New York is getting inspired play in recent weeks from its first-round pick, Frank Ntilikina. The PG is averaging 8.4 points in December after averaging 4.7 points in October and November combined. The Knicks are also seeing a development in second-year guard Ron Baker, who played 31 minutes Sunday in New York's 111-107 win over the Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks are getting some quality minutes from their youngsters. However, no New York player gets talked about more than Kristaps Porzingis, who is still just 22 and two years younger than Baker, despite being in the third month of his third NBA season (Porzingis is averaging 25.5 & 6.6). The pick: Yes, the Knicks have been very good at home but the Lakers come in confident and with surprising depth and balance for a 10-15 team. Eight players are averaging between Ball's 8.6 PPG and leading scorer Ingram's 16.2 PPG, so I'm taking the points with an LA team that's a single point away from being 6-3 ATS its last nine games. Make LA an 8* play. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bearcats opened 7-0 but lost at crosstown rival Xavier on and then fell short 66-60 for their second straight loss against then-No. 5 Florida in the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark, N.J., on Saturday, However, Cincy did manage to remain in the AP poll, grabbing the 25th and final spot in Monday's poll. The Mississippi State Bulldogs ran their season-opening winning streak to eight games with a 95-62 rout of Division II North Georgia in their latest outing and despite being one of just seven Division I unbeatens, the Bulldogs remain unranked (Georgetown is the only other unbeaten to also not be ranked). Mississippi State: The Bulldogs aren't ranked because the strength of its schedule to date leaves much to be desired. In fact, even with more than a few cupcakes on that schedule, the team is fortunate to be unbeaten, as they are committing an average of 15.3 turnovers per game, which is tied with Idaho State for 279th among 351 Division I schools. However, the team shoots well (49.6% ranks 34th in the nation) and defends well (61.9 PPG ranks 21st and its defensive FG percentage of 37.5 ranks 17th). Tyson Carter leads five players in double figures at 14.0 PPG, joined by a pair of Weatherspoon brothers, Quinndary (13.2-5.6-4.6) and Nick (10.9), plus the 6-10 Holman (11.0 & 7.2). Cincinnati: The Bearcats were in the thick of it against Florida but committed a whopping 21 turnovers. "We've got good players turning the ball over, which is a big, big problem," Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin said after the game. "It's hard to win when you turn the ball over, nearly impossible to win. If we had won this game somehow with the turnover line it would have been a modern miracle." Six players are part of the main rotation, averaging from 6.9 to 13.2 PPG. The 6-8 Clark leads the way (13.2 & 8.6) with PG Evans (13.1-3.6-3.5) right behind him. Cincy teams always play defense and this year's team is allowing just 61.8 PPG (20th) on 36.8% shooting (11th). The pick: Mississippi St. is 8-0 but Cincy comes in as a double digit favorite. There IS a reason for that. The Bulldogs are off to their best start since the 2003-04 season but a closer look reveals that their strength of schedule ranks 349th out of 351 Division I teams. This visit to Cincinnati also marks their first true road game of the season so far and will be the team's only road game in its first 14 (some schedule-maker!). The Bearcats' only two losses have come to city rival Xavier (now ranked 10th) on Dec. 2 and on Saturday to then-No. 5 Florida. Cronin clearly wasn't happy with his team's effort in losses to nationally-ranked Xavier and Florida, suggesting that winning made his team "soft" and adding that "it makes you arrogant and it makes your players content." I believe "his kids" got the message. Miss. St. is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Make Cincy a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers won a 39-38 thriller Sunday night over the Ravens for the team's eighth straight win. Pittsburgh has now matched New England's eight-winning streak (longest-active in the NFL) and its 11-2 record ensures that the Steelers will be no worse than tied the with Pats when the teams meet next Sunday at Heinz Field. It's the showdown all NFL fans have been waiting for and the Pats need to "keep up their end'" by earning a ninth consecutive win in Week 14's MNF contest at Hard Rock Stadium againts the Miami Dolphins. A win will also give the Pats an 11-2 mark but while the Dolphins are just 5-7, winning in Miami has not come easy for the Pats in recent years. In fact, the Pats had lost three straight trips to Miami from 2013-2015 (the 2015 loss cost them the home-field playoff edge & the Pats would lose in Denver for the AFC title!), before routing the Dolphins 35-14 last season. The Dolphins halted a five-game losing skid with a 35-9 drubbing of the Denver Broncos last weekend and while it was the team's best effort of the season, it did come over a Broncos team which had lost eight in a row before yesterday's 23-0 shutout over the Jets. New England: The ageless Tom Brady is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,632 yards with 26 TDs and just four INTs, giving hima 109.7 QB rating. The Pats lead the NFL in passing (297.6 YPG) and three receivers have 50-plus catches. TE Rob Gronkowski has a team-high 55 with a team-high 7 TDs, WR Brandin Cooks has 53 with a team-high 16.7 YPC and RB James White has 51 catches (WR Danny Amendola just misses with 46 receptions). The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG (9th), as Dion Lewis has run fro 204 yards (6.8 YPC) the least two weeks, with the Pats rushing for 191 and 196 yards, respectively. As good as the Pats' offense has been, it's defense is back to being one of the league's best. After getting ripped for 32.0 PPG during the team's 2-2 start, that same unit has not allowed more than 17 points in any of its eight straight wins, allowing an average of just 11.9 PPG. The defense now ranks 4th on the season at 18.6 PPG. Miami: The Dolphins were gouged for a 177 points (35.4 per) during their five-game losing streak before sending the Broncos to their eighth straight defeat. Miami got a pair of safeties and a TD from its defense and special teams, which was a much-needed effort. QB Jay Cutler passed for 235 yards with two TDs and two INTs, giving him 15 TDs and 11 INTs on the season (QB rating of 82.1). Miami's passing offense averages only 207.9 YPG (20th), almost 100 YPG less than New England's and Miami is averaging just 17.4 PPG (27th), just shy of 12 PPG less than the Pats. With Ajayi traded away to Philly (you explain why?), the Dolphins now rank 29th in rushing, averaging only 84.7 YPG. The Miami defense had been getting gouged prior to last Sunday's win (see above) and was ripped for 35 points on 417 yards up in New England back in Week 12. The pick: Hard to see the Pats losing here, with so much on the line next week in Pittsburgh. What's more, the Pats haven't lost a regular season road game since Week 17 of the 2015 season (1/3/16). Then again, that loss did come in Miami, the Dolphins' third straight home win over the Pats at the time (Dolphins did lose at home to the Pats last season, 35-14). The Pats are far from healthy coming into this game plus Gronk is suspended, Dion Lewis is sick, Chris Hogan is just coming off a shoulder injury and Tom Brady has missed practice due to a banged up Achilles. Brady always plays and Lewis is expected to go but this is a huge number to lay on the road. The following stat clinches things, as the home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two AFC East rivals. Make Miami a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Celtics -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-108 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The 23-5 Boston Celtics own the most wins in the NBA but the 20-4 Houston Rockets have caught them for the league's highest winning percentage, .833 to .821. The Celtics opened a quick three-game road trip with a 105-102 loss at San Antonio (on Manu's three-pointer!) but then the Celtics shut down the Pistons in a 91-81 victory at Detroit on Sunday. Boston ends it trip in Chicago tonight, facing a Bulls team which owns the NBA's worst record at 5-20 but one that is also coming off back-to-back victories,. Boston: Al Horford rebounded from a season-worst two-point performance against the Spurs to lead his team with 18 points at Detroit, while chipping in nine rebounds, six assists, two blocks and zero turnovers. Horford (14.0-8.1-5.3) has been an unsung hero for the Celtics, overshadowed by the play of Kyrie Irving. Boston's new PG added 16 points at Detroit but has been every bit an MVP candidate averaging 23.7 PPG and 4.8 APG .Playing on a short turnaround, Boston will again be without forward Marcus Morris (12.1 & 5.5), who didn't play on Sunday and who has already been ruled out for Monday due to a left knee injury. Rookie forward Jayson Tatum was 3-for-5 from 3-point range Sunday to improve his NBA-leading percentage from long distance to 52.3%, while averaging 14.8 PPG on 51.2% shooting overall. Last year's No. 1 choice, Jaylen Brown (14.7 & 5.8), is proving in his second season just why he was Boston's top choice last year. Chicago: The Bulls had lost 10 in a row but then won 1119-11 (OT) in Charlotte on Friday, They then followed with a 104-102 win at home the next night over the Knicks. Has Nikola Mirotic's return to the lineup been the difference? Mirotic missed the first 23 games due to facial fractures and a concussion resulting from a preseason fight with teammate Bobby Portis. He scored just six points vs. the Hornets on Friday but had 19 points in 20 minutes versus the Knicks. Portis has played 16 games since his suspension from the fight and has averaged 11.7 & 6.6 off the bench. Mirotic's big effort Saturday night was part of a solid showing for Chicago's five reserves, who combined for 54 points on 21-of-37 shooting with 14 assists and two turnovers. PG Kris Dunn (12.8-4.9-5.1) led the starters with 17 points and nine assists and he is averaging 17.5 points, eight assists and 6.3 rebounds during a four-game stretch. Lauri Markkanen, the 7-footer from Arizona, has been as good as any rookie this season, leading the team in scoring (14.7) and rebounding (8.1). The pick: Chicago has won four straight regular-season meetings with Boston at home but this is a very different Chicago team and very different Boston team. The Bulls are just 3-8 SU at home and on the season, are averaging a modest 103.2 PPG, to rank 27th. The Celtics come in with the NBA's best road record at 11-3 and are also a money-making 11-3 ATS as well. Boston is the league's top defensive team, allowing 96.1 PPG on 43.5% shooting, which ranks second-best. Take the road favorite and make Boston a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Drake v. Minnesota -19 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota returned all five starters from a 24-win team last year and opened the new season 7-0. However, the "not-so" Golden Gophers have lost three of their last four games, including back-to-back double-digit losses at Nebraska and Arkansas. The team's current AP ranking may be No. 14 but that's only until Monday's new poll is released (bye-bye top-25!). The Drake Bulldogs visit Williams Arena tonight and have defeated Wake Forest earlier this season and more recently, snapped a three-game losing streak Saturday with a 19-point win over Omaha. Drake checks in 5-4 on the season but that's pretty good news for a team which hasn't had as many as 10 wins the last three seasons (9, 7, & 7). Drake: Senior guard Reed Timmer scored 27 points to pace Drake in its win over Omaha. He enters averaging 22.1 PPG (4.1 RPG), while shooting 49.5% (56.1% on threes) and 91.9% from the line. Fellow guards McMurray (11.6) and Woodward (11.4) join him in double figures, as does the 6-8 McGlynn (11.0 & 6.0). However, Drake's defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 78.6 PPG (293rd) on 47.4% shooting (300th). Minnesota: Head coach Richard Pitino is not in panic mode, at least not yet. "Certainly we have our deficiencies we have to fix, but the sky's not falling," Pitino told reporters after the Gophers allowed the Razorbacks to shoot 57.4 percent from the floor and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc. The 6-6 Jordan Murphy leads the team in scoring (19.9) and rebounding (12.5), posting a double-double in all 11 games. The 6-10 Lynch (11.0 & 8.1 plus 4.2 blocks per game) joins Murphy up front plus the Gophers have a sweet trio of guards in Mason (15.8-4.0-4.5), Coffey (14.2 & 4.6 and McBrayer (8.5). Coffey has scored at least 10 points in six straight games. The pick: This is a huge number but Drake is 0-3 on the road, while allowing 88.5 PPG. This is a the wrong place and wrong time to visit Minnesota, reeling from back-to-back road losses. Minnesota averages a whopping 93.5 PPG at home and the play is to lay the points. Make Minnesota 10* selection. |
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12-10-17 | 76ers v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 124-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-13 New Orleans Pelicans are hoping to cap a short four-game homestand at 2-2 when they host the 13-12 Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday night. The Pelicans are none too happy after blowing a nine-point lead with only 3 1/2 minutes left, then losing in overtime to struggling Sacramento on Friday night. The 76ers visit New Orleans on a three-game slide, after losing 105-98 at Cleveland last night, while star center Joel Embiid was rested. Philadelphia Embiid is expected back for this one after sitting out the first game of a back-to-back (for the third time this season) last night. However, forward Robert Covington (15.3 & 6.2) left the loss with a back injury after tumbling into the stands. Covington was 5-for-7 from 3-point range and recorded 19 points before his injury,and JJ Redick (16.1) matched him in the scoring column in the loss to Cleveland. Head coach Brett Brown did not have an immediate update after the game on Covington. Embiid scored 33 points and had seven rebounds, six assists and five blocks in a career-high 36 minutes. in his last game. He has scored at least 20 points in five straight games and is averaging 23.5 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.0 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game. Ben Simmons is a (the?) leading candidate for rookie of the year, averaging 17.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 2.2 steals. He played his only year of college basketball at LSU, 80 miles from New Orleans, has had a spectacular season after missing his entire rookie campaign. The 6-10 point forward recorded three triple-doubles in his first 23 games. The only other players in NBA history to do that were Oscar Robertson (seven) and Magic Johnson (three). New Orleans: Anthony Davis returned from a groin injury to provide 18 points in the overtime loss to the Kings on Friday, and head coach Alvin Gentry is well aware his team can't lose games like this (to teams like the Kings), if it is serious about contending for Western Conference playoff spot."You can't give Knute Rockne speeches every night," Gentry told reporters. "You know, as an athlete, it's your job. And it's our job as coaches (to get them ready). We have to have the energy to go out and play against a team like that and make sure we are getting the job done." Davis was expected to play about 25 minutes Friday but was able to give his team 31, and the 24-year-old reported no issues with the groin. New Orleans will hope for Davis to provide a little more support for fellow big man DeMarcus Cousins, who scored 38 points against Sacramento and is averaging 39 in 40.5 minutes over the last two games. The Cousins (26.3 & 12.6)/Davis (24.9 & 10.7) duo is formidable plus guards Holiday (16.6-4.3-5.5) and Moore (12.4) join them in double digits. PG Rajon Rondo was rested on Friday but he's coming around nicely, averaging 11.5 points on 58.8 percent shooting and 9.8 assists over the first four contests in December. The pick: Cousins joins Embiid as the only NBA players averaging at least 23 points and 11 rebounds per game this season and with Davis back (and Rondo as well), I expect the Pelicans to grab the win here after "giving one away" against the Kings. The 'price is right' to make the Pelicans a 10* play. |
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12-10-17 | Jets v. Broncos | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It's NFL Week 14 and the New York Jets are in Denver to take on the Broncos. There were many who thought that the Jets would be battling the Browns and maybe the 49ers for the overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft as the 2017 season opened and there were more than a few who thought that the Broncos could rebound from a record in 2016, to challenge the Chiefs and Raiders in the AFC West. The Jets opened 0-2 and the refrain, "Here we go again" was prominent in the New York area. However, the Jets rebounded to win three in a row after that and while the team comes into this contest a modest 5-7, the Jets have been way more competitive than almost anyone would have believed (Jets are 7-4-1 ATS). As for Denver, a 3-1 start to the 2017 season has quickly turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Broncos get set to host the Jets looking to break an eight-game losing streak in which the team has also gone 0-8 ATS (now that's bad football!).
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12-10-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 113 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings are riding an eight-game winning streak (tied with the Pats for the NFL's longest-active one) into Sunday's game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where they will face the 8-4 Carolina Panthers. The Vikings have all but clinched the NFC North (four up with four to play) but are still battling the 10-2 Eagles for the NFC's top seed (Minnesota currently owns the tie-breaker). The Panthers have lost twice to the Saints in 2017 which is bad news but with New Orleans losing Thursday night in Atlanta, Carolina has a chance to move into a first-place tie with the Saints by beating the Vikings in this one. Also of importance is winning to stay ahead of the 8-5 Falcons, as the Panthers would fall back into a tie with Atlanta if they lose here. Minnesota: Case Keenum was expected be a stop-gap measure at QB, hoping that either Bradford or even Bridgewater would be able to get back on the field. However, he's turned in one of 2017's most surprising performances, as he's 8-2 as Minnesota's starting QB this season. He's completing 67.5% for 2,703 yards with 16 TDs and just five INTs for a 98.6 QB rating. He's also gotten better than expected help from Minnesota's "no-name" RBs, as after rookie Dalvin Cook was lost for the season, Murray (572 yards) and McKinnon (414 yards) have filled in admirably. The Vikings rank 6th with 122.8 YPG on the ground. The offense averages 23.8 PPG (11th) but it's the defense which has made the bigger difference, ranking second in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total defense (289.1 YPG). Carolina: The Panthers have been tough to figure in 2017. They have looked very good at times, like in their 33-30 win at New England but then just helpless like in a 17-3 loss in Chicago to the Bears. Cam Newton has to carry the team and sometimes he's just asked to do too much. He's nowhere near the numbers of his 2015 MVP season but his 515 yards rushing helps Carolina average 127.8 YPG on the ground (5th-best). The offense is scoring slightly less than Minnesota's at 22.4 PPG (16th) and while the Carolina D is solid (10th in allowing 19.8 PPG and 6th with 297.6 YPG), it's not quite in Minnesota's league. The pick: Both teams have plenty to play for and at first blush, one could have to give the edge to the home-standing Panthers, as the Vikings are playing a third straight tough game on the road (at Detroit on Thanksgiving and at Atlanta last Sunday). However, Minnesota is just not 'backing off,' as the Vikings are looking for not only a ninth straight win but also an eighth straight cover. No way Newton is looking forward to facing that Minnesota D, as in last year's meeting, he was picked off three times and sacked eight times in a 22-10 home loss. Speaking of home, the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Make Minnesota an 8* play. |
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12-10-17 | Bears +6 v. Bengals | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 113 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-9 Chicago Bears will visit Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday to take on the 5-7 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bears average 275.8 YPG on offense (ranking 32nd of 32 teams) and the Bengals average 280.8 YPG, ranking 31st. The Bears limp in on a five-game losing streak (well out of the playoff 'picture') while the Bengals had won two in a row before a 23-20 loss to the Steelers on Monday night (Cincy led 17-0 in the very late second quarter). Chicago: The Bears have given up on Mike Glennon (66.4% completions but just 188.8 YPG with 4 TDs & 5 INTs for a 76.9 QB rating) but first round draft pick Mitch Trubisky hasn't been much better, completing only 54.9 percent for 138.6 YPG with 5 TDs & 4 INTs (QB rating of 74.6). Jordan Howard is the Bears’ top rusher with 885 yards (4.2 YPC & 5 TDs) but rookie RB Tarik Cohen (267 RY / 3.9 YPC) is the team's leading receiver with 39 catches and averages only 7.8 YPC. As for Da Bears' defense, it's middle-of-the-road ranking 14th in both points allowed (22.2 PPG) and yards allowed (333.2 YPG). Cincinnati: QB Andy Dalton threw for 234 yards and two TDs (zero INTs) on 21-of-36 passing Monday night. He's now thrown 11 TD passes without an INT (over 171 attempts) over Cincy's last six games, although the Bengals are just 3-3 SU in that span. Giovani Bernard was the Bengals’ top rusher with 77 yards on 13 carries but he still doesn't have 200 yards rushing on the season, as the Bengals rank 30th in rushing, averaging only 80.2 YPG. The Cincy D has been fine, allowing 19.8 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (16th). The pick: Cincy is still alive in the AFC wild card race mostly because the Bengals have been able to beat DeShone Kizer (twice), Jacoby Brissett, and Brock Osweiler. Can Cincy best Mitch Trubisky, as well? That's fair but the Bengals not only dropped a brutal 23-20 decision to the Steelers on Monday but they but may have also lost RB Joe Mixon (leading rusher at 518 yards) and linebacker Vontaze Burfict to concussions in the hard-hitting affair. Both players missed practice during the week while in concussion protocol. Note that Chicago kept Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers out of the end zone the entire way last week, losing only when former Bear Robbie Gould booted five FGs in his return to the Windy City, including a game-winner with just four seconds to play. The Bears have been within one score (except at Philly) in all losses with Trubisky, while the Bengals have only covered 11 of their last 30 regular season games. Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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