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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-20-18 | Wings v. Sky +6.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Liz Cambage scored a WNBA best 53 points in the Dallas Wings’ victory last Tuesday, but they’re in action on Thursday night against a tough Washington Mystics side at home. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Chicago will look to take advantage and to also avenge an earlier loss to the Wings. The teams: Dallas is not surprisingly led by Cambage with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way on the glass with 9.2 boards per night. The Sky are led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 7.6 assists. Cheyenne Parker chips in 6.3 boards per game. The pick: Clearly Dallas will be tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Chicago though comes in rested and focused and take it for what you will, but note that the Sky are 16-8 ATS in their last 24 in trying to revenge an “in season” SU loss to an opponent in which it gave up 100 or more points in. A great situational play on the Chicago Sky. |
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07-19-18 | Mystics +4 v. Wings | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Wings’ Liz Cambage just broke the WNBA record with 53 points in her team’s 104-87 win over New York. Cambage is only one player, but after such a momentous occasion, I believe the entire team suffers a mental letdown here. These teams haven’t played yet this year, as this marks the first of three between them. Washington and Elena Delle Donne will look to take advantage. The teams: Delle Donne leads the Mystics with 20.6 PPG, while Natasha Cloud adds 4.5 assists. Delle Donne is also the leader on the boards with 6.9 per game. Cambage leads the way offensively for the Wings with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way with 9.2 boards per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after being held to 80 points or less in its previous contest (fell 80-77 to open its five-game road trip), while Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 100 points or more. With a game tomorrow night in Chicago, I think the Mystics also get caught “looking ahead” in this one. Play on Washington. |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan +11.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest. The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far. Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan. |
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07-19-18 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half. The visitors go with Carlos Martinez and the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The pitchers: Martinez is so far 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He most recently beat the Giants, giving up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out three. It was Martinez’s third straight victory and his ninth quality start of the season. After a small shaky stretch, Martinez is back on track across the board and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.57 ERA record on the road. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision against San Francisco. Starts like that though were few and far between over the first half for Hendricks, who has just two quality efforts out of his last nine trips to the hill. The pick: Take it for what you will, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 15-17 in its last 32 when playing with three or more days of rest. Martinez comes in as the much more consistent hurler and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t keep that momentum rolling with extra time off. Hendricks comes off a strong start, but I believe his inconsistencies come back to haunt him again. Play on St. Louis on the run-line. |
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07-18-18 | Fever v. Lynx -14.5 | Top | 65-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Home floor advantage has meant little so far in the season series between these clubs, with the Fever winning 71-59 at Minnesota, before the Lynx responding with an 87-65 win at Indiana a week later. After beating the Fever on July 11th, Minnesota has since dropped two straight home games. The Fever though are in a complete “free fall” right now, having dropped four in a row. The teams: Indiana is led by Kelsey Mitchell with 13.5 PPG, while Erica Wheeler dishes out 4 assists per night. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 6.8 per night. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen added 3.6 assists. Sylvia Fowles controls the boards with 11.9 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a three games or more SU winless streak, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. The Fever get caught “looking ahead” here to their West coast game on Friday night at the Sparks and the Lynx take full advantage and get back on track with a big effort in the final game of their current three-game home stand. Lay the points. |
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07-17-18 | Dream v. Sun -8 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two red hot teams collide on Tuesday night. The Atlanta Dream have won four straight, while the Connecticut Sun have won two in a row. Ultimately I believe that the home court advantage will prove to be the difference maker in this one. The teams: The Dream come in having won four straight. Atlanta is led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 PPG, while Alex Bentley dishes out 4.3 assists per night. Jessica Breland leads the charge on the boards with 8.2 a night. The Sun have won back-to-back games, most recently 83-64 on the road in Minnesota (I had Connecticut in that one) and they are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15 points per night, while Alyssa Thomas adds 4.5 assists per game. Thomas also leads the way on the boards with 9.4 per night. The pick: These teams are very familiar with each other and as I mentioned off the top, I do indeed believe that “home court” will play a significant role in the outcome of this one, as note that the Sun smashed the Dream 74-58 at home in the first meeting between the clubs this year, before Atlanta then won both subsequent home games, 82-77 and 75-70. With a chance for revenge after back-to-back losses in this series, I look for Connecticut to build off its recent win skein, while everything does definitely point to a letdown finally for the Dream after their recent run of success. Play on the Sun. |
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07-15-18 | Sun +4 v. Lynx | Top | 83-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The last time these teams played, the Sun smashed the Lynx 89-75. I’m expecting another decisive affair here as well. Connecticut comes in ranked third in the East with an 11-10 record, while Minnesota is ranked fifth in the West with a 12-9 record. The teams: The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15.7 PPG, while Alyssa Thomas directs the show with 4.7 assists a night. Thomas also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 9.7 per game. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.6 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen chips in 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles contributes with 12 board per game. The pick: The Sun broke a three-game slide with a 91-87 win over Phoenix on Friday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over at home here as well. The Lynx come in off a deflating 85-77 home loss to Las Vegas and I believe they’re primed for another letdown here also. Play on Connecticut. |
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07-15-18 | Croatia +0.5 v. France | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: France comes in off a 1-0 regulation win over Belgium, while Croatia knocked off host Russia in a shootout to advance. France has gotten better as this tournament has worn on, but Croatia has proven itself to be a “hard out.” Suffice it to say, I’m expecting nothing less here either. The French may be the more talented team on paper, but the Croatian’s have the bigger “heart.” I predict this one will see extra time or the shootout. The teams: Croatia’s defense will be focused on slowing down French teenage phenom Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals so far. Antoine Greizmann continues to be a focal point for France as well, as he has 12 goals and eight assists over his last 20 games for his country. Luka Modric is one of three Croatian’s with two goals in this tournament. Ivan Rakitic has helped his team in the knockout round, as he has two crucial goals in both shoot-out victories. The pick: France may have never lost to Croatia in its history, but I think its over-confidence will prove its undoing here. The English found out the hard way that this Croatian team is no joke and while the French may in fact go on to win the title, I’m banking on it being anything but “easy.” Play on Croatia +0.5 goal. |
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07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I look for the hungry home side to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. In fact, it’s an “immediate revenge” scenario after BC lost 41-19 in Winnipeg last weekend. BC has struggled against Winnipeg for a couple of years now, but I expect that trend to finally start going the other way this weekend. The teams: Winnipeg got a big game defensively from LB Adam Bighill, who faced his former team for the first time last week as he’d post six tackles and make two interceptions. QB Matt Nichols was pretty mediocre though, going 16 of 27 for 162 yards. BC comes in focused, as it comes in off back-to-back losses, allowing 82 points in the process. The Lions struggled on both sides of the ball last week, but desperation breeds motivation in my opinion. Both the struggling Jon Jennings and the injured Travis Lulay took snaps in practice this week. The pick: Note that the Blue Bombers are interestingly just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 points or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on BC bouncing back and fighting for its life in this revenge spot in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. |
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07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto was down starting QB Ricky Ray and it was a 3.5 point underdog at home to these very Eskimos last week and the winless Argos would prevail outright with the 20-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be pay-back time in a big way in Alberta on Friday night. The teams: The 20 points scored by the Argos was the most they’ve put up so far this year and the 17 points allowed was the least. QB James Franklin was an efficient 16 of 22 for 217 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Declan Cross caught the winning TD pass with three minutes to play. RB James Wilder Jr. had 120 rushing yards and a score as well. The Eskimo’s looked “out of sorts” from the “get go” last week, but I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton to get back on track. QB Mike Reilly was still decent in the setback, going 28 of 40 for 370 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Reilly leads the league in passing with 1,390 yards and seven major scores. 12 penalties for 126 yards was just too much for Edmonton to overcome in the end though. The pick: Neither team has been very good for bettors over the last few seasons, but I think the difference will be the immediate “revenge factor.” Edmonton hurt itself with sloppy and undisciplined play last week and I have a hard time seeing the home side not coming in completely focused here as it looks to atone for its sub-par effort. Toronto backup Franklin looked decent at home last weekend, but I think he’ll stumble in this hostile environment. Everything points to a blowout, lay the points. |
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07-13-18 | Aces +10 v. Lynx | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is 12-8, but it still sits just fourth in the competitive Western Conference. After a slow start the Las Vegas Aces have looked a bit better of late, but they are still in last place in the West with a 9-12 record. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor though and I think it’ll ultimately prove to be the difference maker here. The teams: Las Vegas lost at home to Minnesota 88-73 back on June 24th. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.6 PPG, while Kelsey Plum runs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Wilson also leads the nightly charge on the boards with 8.5 a game. Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 19 PPG, while Danielle Robinson dishes out 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way in the rebounding department 11.8 per game. The pick: The Aces have been quietly dominating, coming into this one having won three straight, most recently a blowout 98-74 victory over Chicago. After a seven-game unbeaten streak, Minnesota has split its last four games, most recently coming off an 87-65 win over Indiana. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Aces’ improvement though and combined with the very real “revenge factor,” all signs point to the points as the correct call. Play on Las Vegas. |
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07-12-18 | Calgary -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary comes in off its bye and I look for it to continue its unbeaten 3-0 start to the 2018 campaign with another convincing victory here. These teams met in Calgary in Week 3 and the Stamps prevailed 24-14 and suffice it to say, I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight. The teams: Bo Levi Mitchell had 251 yards and two touchdowns, while Don Jackson had 84 yards a TD for Calgary in Week 3 week over Ottawa. Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris though had just 135 yards and pick before being pulled. Mitchell so far has 872 yards and six TD’s this season, while Jackson already has 294 yards rushing. Harris bounced back last week in Ottawa’s 28-18 win at Montreal with 342 yards and three TD’s, but clearly he’s going to have a much more difficult time tonight against the league’s No. 1 defense, a unit which has given up just 34 points over three games thus far. The pick: Calgary is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday night games, performing well on the “short week” (despite coming off its bye), while Ottawa is a terrible 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a victory. Expect a rested and focused Calgary to pull away for the comfortable win/cover as the game comes down the stretch. |
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07-11-18 | England v. Croatia +0.25 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m predicting that this will be decided in extra time or penalties. England is the favorite to win this match straight-up, but I expect Croatia to give it everything it can handle. England advanced by beating Colombia in a shootout and then by beating Sweden 2-0, while Croatia needed a shootout to advance past the host country. The teams: Croatia got a big contribution from Domagoj Vida, who scored his team’s second goal in the quarter-final and who also netted one in the shootout in the win over Russia. Luka Modric had a big game overall in the win as well, as he’d go on to set up the second goal. The Croatian’s have won two straight in shootout, proving that they’re anything but an “easy out.” Harry Kane failed to score for the first time in seven matches for England last time out, but he still leads the Golden Boot with six scores. The English are deep and talented, as evidenced by their 2-0 win over Sweden, dominating on both ends of the pitch throughout. England has lost just once out of its last 15 matches, but I think it’s going to have its hands full here. The pick: Note that Croatia is unbeaten in is last six matches, with four outright wins and two penalty shoot-out victories. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open offensive “shootout.” Play on Croatia +1/4 goal. |
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07-11-18 | Lynx -10.5 v. Fever | Top | 87-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana is 2-17, while Minnesota is 11-8. One of Indiana’s two victories occurred against these very Lynx (71-59). Minnesota comes in off a 77-63 loss to Chicago, but with a date at home against bottom feeder Las Vegas on Friday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent again. The teams: Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 18.9 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the boards with 11.9 per game. The Fever are led by Kelsey Mitchell with 14.4 PPG, while Erica Wheeler adds 3.9 assists. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 7.2 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after allowing 90 points or more (just lost 90-63 to Dallas.) I’m banking on the Lynx getting caught looking ahead. Play on Indiana. |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto won the 2017 Grey Cup in a stunning upset of the Calgary Stampeders, but so far the team has looked horrible in 2018 with an 0-2 start. Edmonton will look to take advantage here now and build off its 41-22 home win over the Lions last week. The teams: CJ Gable had a career day rushing for Edmonton last week, going for 165 yards on 23 carries, while also adding a TD for the Esks. Mike Reilly was 22 of 30 for 326 yards and three major scores, while also rushing for a TD. WR D’Haquille Williams had six catches for 129 yards. Toronto has so far managed just 26 points on the season and with starting QB Ricky Ray out for the season with a neck injury (career ending?) James Franklin is suddenly being thrust into a very difficult situation. Franklin was an unremarkable 8 of 13 for 65 yards and a rushing score in relief of Ray last week. The pick: Note that Edmonton has covered in five of its past six road games. Note that Toronto is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against clubs with winning records. The injury to Ray is devastating for an Argo’s team which was already struggling across the board. I think Reilly and company come in and calmly conduct their business and take full advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the points. |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa lost 24-14 in Calgary last week and it’ll be eager to return to the winners circle in this favorable matchup on Friday night. Montreal was a 10.5 point home underdog to Saskatchewan last weekend and it pulled off the huge 23-17 outright upset. Can anyone say “letdown spot” in Week 4? The teams: Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris struggled against Calgary’s elite defense, going 13 of 29 for 135 yards and an INT. The only bright spot on offense was RB William Powell, who had 113 yards on the day. And while the offense looked terrible overall, the defense was pretty good, forcing three turnovers in the end. Montreal’s defense looked great last week as well, holding the Roughriders to 278 total yards. The offense though wasn’t great, with just 264 yards. QB Jeff Mathews was 8 of 12 for 98 yards. The pick: Ottawa though has covered five straight in Montreal and I think everything points to that strong trend continuing here. Also note that the Redblacks have covered their last four following a loss. The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” Everything points to a blowout from start to finish in this one in my opinion, play on Ottawa. |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tigercats went 1-1 on a season opening road trip and then returned home for a convincing 31-17 victory over Winnipeg in Week 3. The Roughriders will be hungry here though, as they come in sitting at just 1-2 and off a humbling 27-13 loss to lowly Montreal as a 10-point fav last time out. The teams: Saskatchewan was 2-0 in this series last year, but the Roughriders clearly can’t take anything for granted against this much improved Hamilton team. Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli had 369 yards an a TD last week for the Ti-Cats and the defense held the Bombers to just 280 yards. The run game also looked decent as Mercer Timmis had two short TD runs. QB Brandon Bridge had to start in place of the injured Zach Collaros last week for Saskatchewan and while he’d stumble in that one, I think he’ll be much more competitive this time around. The pick: With a game to make adjustments after losing Collaros, I think Winnipeg will look a lot better this week. This is Hamilton’s third road game in the first four weeks and after playing at such a high level, including posting back to back SU/ATS victories, everything finally points to a letdown in my opinion (note that Hamilton is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two more SU wins, while Saskatchewan is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses.) Grab as many points as you can, play on the Roughriders. |
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07-05-18 | Liberty +9.5 v. Mystics | Top | 67-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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07-03-18 | Fever +16 v. Lynx | Top | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the hungry visiting side (just 1-16 on the year after falling 87-83 to Atlanta on Sunday) offers great value to come in under the radar to post a solid cover in this spot. The teams: Minnesota comes in complacent as well after seven straight victories. Indiana will look to take advantage and push the pace of this one. Note that Fever rookie forward Victoria Vivians posted a career high 27 points in Indiana’s latest setback: "The best thing we can do is stick together," Vivians said after the loss to Atlanta. "We depend on each other for everything. I feel like the best thing we can do is put our heads all in together and just be together through the whole process." The pick: The defending champs are on “cruise control” now with seven straight victories. Minnesota most recently held for a 76-72 win over Dallas, led by 26 points from Maya Moore. But with the LA Sparks, the Lynx’ most fiercest rival coming to town on Thursday, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “look ahead” spot as well for the home side. While I’m not predicting the straight up upset, the stage is definitely set for a competitive battle. So grab the points! Play on the Fever. |
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06-30-18 | Montreal +11.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 106 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Als are coming off an embarrassing home loss and they’ll be eager to quickly erase that memory. They now perhaps thankfully hit the road for a matchup against an equally as hungry Roughriders side in Saskatchewan. Montreal is 0-2 to open the season, while Saskatchewan is 1-1. The teams: Montreal will be eager to avoid its first 0-3 start since the 1996 season. QB Drew Willy will be expected to step up here. In all fairness though, he hasn’t been terrible over the first two games, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 392 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The combination of Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams has been decent with 196 receiving yards. The ground game has been poor with 72 yards per game, but the major problem has been on the defensive side, so far allowing 39 points and 444 yards per game. Riders’ QB Zach Collaros hasn’t been great in the early going, with 309 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. The ground game has been decent with 102.5 yards per game average. The defense though has been nothing special, allowing 29.5 points and 375 yards per game. The pick: It’s not going to be a pretty season for the Als, but they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to try and score an upset against. Saskatchewan has looked poor overall and while I’m not in fact going to predict an outright victory, I do think that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points, play on the Alouettes. |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg +4.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tigercats come in with identical 1-1 records. The Blue Bombers though have won six of their last eight road games and while I would of course not be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. The teams: Winnipeg is led by QB Chris Streveler, who has 424 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite targets have been Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler, who have combined for 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The ground game has been dominant as well, averaging 191 yards per contest thus far, with Andrew Harris leading the charge with 135 on 29 carries. The defense hasn’t been shabby either, allowing 21.5 points and 341 yards per game. Hamilton has lost six of its last eight home games. QB Jeremiah Masoli so far has 676 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over the first two games. Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker have combined for 325 receiving yards and two major scores. Defensively the Ti-Cats are allowing 24.5 points and 388.5 yards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Hamilton is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 at home. After back-to-back road games to open the season, I think Hamilton suffers a predictable letdown here, leaving the back door open for the hungry visitors. Play on the Blue Bombers. |
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06-26-18 | Storm +6 v. Lynx | Top | 79-91 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is the defending champ, but it comes into this one sitting at 7-6. The Lynx traded forward Natasha Howard to the Storm in the preseason and it’s clearly taken a toll on their chemistry to open the 2018 campaign. The Storm are 10-4 and they come in on a four-game win streak. Suffice it to say, I think Seattle can smell the blood in the water. The teams: Howard is expected to get her ring before the start of this game and then I’m expecting her to bring the thunder against her former team. Howard played in all 34 games the past two season with Minnesota, a key part in getting the Lynx to a pair of trips to the WNBA Finals. Howard is so far averaging 14.1 points, 6.8 boards and 1.9 blocks in 26.8 minutes for Seattle. Other stand out players include Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. The Lynx come in off an 88-73 win over lowly Las Vegas on Sunday, led by 23 points from Maya Moore. Sylvia Fowles added 20 points and ten boards. The pick: Note though that Seattle has been at its best on the road for bettors this season with a strong 4-1 ATS record. Conversely, Minnesota has been downright horrible in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-4 ATS record. I’m banking on Howard and the Storm carrying over their momentum here. |
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06-22-18 | Sparks -3.5 v. Wings | Top | 72-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Sparks are on the road at College Park Center to take on the Dallas Wings in this one. LA is 9-2 so far, good enough for second place in the Western Conference. Dallas is so far 5-5, sitting in fifth in the Western Conference. The teams: LA averages 79.9 PPG and it allows 73.7. Note that the Sparks come in with zero injuries. LA is led by Chelsea Gray with 15.5 PPG, while Nneka Ogwumike averages 16.5 points per night. Dallas averages 82.9 points and it allows 81.0. Note that the Wings have two major injuries as Karima Christmas-Kelly is out for the season with a knee injury, while Theresa Plaisance is out with an ACL tear. Elizabeth Cambage is averaging 19.7 points for Dallas this year. The pick: Dallas has trouble protecting the ball against aggressive defensive teams, turning it over an average of 15.6 times per 100 possessions. And that doesn’t bode well facing the Sparks stingy unit. I think this line should be larger. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here. The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense. Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles. The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points. |
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06-20-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Yanks pulled away for a decisive 7-2 victory in yesterday’s series opener and while the home side may ultimately earn another victory here as well, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mariners go with Felix Hernandez, while the Yankees go with Jonathan Loasiga. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Thursday, allowing two earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over seven innings. Hernandez has been strong at home and poor on the road this year, but I’m expecting “The King” to carry over the momentum from his latest outing and challenge his still untested counterpart. Loaisiga is so far 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Loaisiga picked up a win in his major league debut against the Rays on Friday, giving up three hits and four walks over five scoreless. It wan impressive showing, but clearly the book is still out on the right-hander. The pick: The future is bright for Loaisiga, but it’s hard to see the rookie duplicating that performance in back-to-back outings. Hernandez has had plenty of struggles, but I think the veteran will at the very least, match Loaisiga inning for inning. Play the Mariners on the run-line. |
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06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC -6.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout. The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point. BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC. |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton +9.5 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread. The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018. Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it. |
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06-14-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories on Wednesday. Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. I’m expecting an all out battle in the opener of this important three-game set and as such, I think laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance is the correct move in this matchup. The Red Sox go with David Price, while the Mariners go with Felix Hernandez. The pitchers: Price is so far 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Price most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Price has been decent of late, but I think he’s going to struggle against the hard-hitting home side. Hernandez is so far 6-5 with a 5.70 ERA. After dominating the Rays over eight scoreless in his previous start, Hernandez predictably came back down to Earth in his next start against the Rays, allowing six runs over three innings on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Hernandez has been much better at home (4.04 ERA) than on the road (7.71) The pick: Both teams have been excellent this season and in my opinion, this one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the 1.5 runs. |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg might be without starting QB Matt Nichols to open the 2018 campaign, but the Blue Bombers won’t be lacking for motivation on Opening Night after Edmonton knocked them out of the Western semi-final last year 39-32. Winnipeg won both regular season meetings a year ago though and I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded. The teams: Edmonton went 12-6 during the regular season in 2017, before then falling to Calgary in the West Final. The Eskimos feature one of the best QB’s in the league in Mike Reilly, who will have to start the season without two of his top targets in Adarius Bowman (went to Winnipeg in the offseason) and Brandon Zylstra (signed by the Minnesota Vikings.) As mentioned above, the Blue Bombers won’t have Nichols under center, meaning that rookie Chris Streveler is “the next man up.” Streveler looked pretty good in two preseason games, going 13 of 19 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT. But the Bombers have a bunch of talent on both sides of field, including Bowman, Nic Demski and LB Adam Bighill. In 2015 Bighill was named the CFL’s top Defensive player. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Edmonton is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in June, while the Bombers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the West. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright, I’m banking on the home side keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. |
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06-13-18 | Reds v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s 5-1 defeat, I look for the Royals to at the very least keep this one close enough into the latter frames to earn the comfortable victory with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, while the home side goes with Jason Hammel. The pitchers: Mahle is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA thus far. Most recently Mahle gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday. Mahle has struggled of late, completing just six innings in just five of his 13 starts this year. Mahle has been hit or miss this season, being especially average on the road with a 3-3, 4.49 ERA. Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA to this point. Hammel most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Hammel has struggled for most of the season, however he’s now started to turn things around by giving up just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings of work. The pick: The Reds earned the rare road win last night, but they’re still just 12-20 (-3 units on the road). It’s hard to say too many positive things about the Royals, however note that they’re 6-2 in their last eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m playing the Royals on the run-line. |
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06-10-18 | Aces +15 v. Mercury | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix Mercury have won four straight, but I think they come out complacent here, giving the advantage to the Las Vegas Aces. Las Vegas won’t be lacking motivation today as it sits at 1-6, while the Mercury come in at 6-3. The teams: The Aces most recently lost 87-83 at home to Atlanta. A’ja Wilson was a bright spot with 20 points and nine boards. Las Vegas coach Bill Laimbeer though will be eager to get off on the “right foot” here, as this marks the opener of a four-game, six-day road trip for his team: “We're trying to find a cohesive situation," Laimbeer said yesterday. "I'm pushing any button I can to get five players (to play together.)” The Mercury most recently hammered the Chicago Sky 96-79 on Friday, with all five starters scoring in double figures, led by center Brittney Griner with 24 points. The pick: Las Vegas though is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after three or more SU/ATS losses, while Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after four or more SU victories. I think that Phoenix does indeed get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight and while I’ll stop short in call for the upset, this has one definitely has “nail biter” written all over it in my opinion. Play on the Aces. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Warriors on the “money line” in Game 3, laying the larger price for what turned out to be a relatively easy victory in the end. In Game 4 though I’m predicting that the hungry Cavaliers will keep the final score much more competitive and while I wouldn’t in fact be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The teams: Golden State comes in averaging 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but only 35.6 percent from 3-point land. Kevin Durant led the way in the Game 3 win with 43 points, 13 boards and seven assists, while Stephen Curry though had just 11 points. Andre Igoudala would return for his first action of the series and score just eight points in 22 minutes off the bench. Cleveland is hitting 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James predictably led the way in Game 3 with 33 points, ten boards and 11 assists, while Kevin Love did his best with 20 points and 13 boards. The pick: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers. Golden State now has a virtually insurmountable lead in this series and a loss here would change nothing to its odds in accomplishing that. Winning the NBA Championship at home in Game 5 in front of the home town crowd would be pretty sweet. Right? The Cavs though have been embarrassed in this series and I think they are clearly the “hungrier” team tonight. I expect Cleveland’s overall desperation to be the difference in this one. Grab the points. |
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06-03-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set up: The season is just underway, but the LA Sparks are already rolling. Minnesota is 2-4, while LA is 3-1. In this particular contest, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done. The teams: Both teams sport plenty of talent. Minnesota has Maya Moore, who is averaging 17.3 PPG, along with Sylvia Fowles (16.5) and Seimone Augustus (11.7). LA features Nneka Ogwumike who is averaging 20.3 points, while Chelsea Gray adds 18.5 and Odyssey Sims contributes 18.0. The pick: I don’t normally put a lot of stock on ATS trends, but in this case they are overwhelming. Note that the Lynx are 0-6 ATS overall this year and just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after a loss by ten points or more. LA on the other hand is 3-1 ATS overall, including 2-0 ATS as the favorite (and 42-32 ATS as the fav the last two years.) Also note that LA is a sharp 16-8 ATS in its last 24 when playing with three or more days rest. The Lynx are “due” to break out of their slump at some point, but I don’t foresee that happening against this rested and red hot Sparks team on the road. Lay the points. |
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06-01-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates would let one slip away last night, falling to the Cardinals 10-8 in extra innings. Pittsburgh has lost seven of ten, including two of three to St. Louis just last week. St. Louis though hasn’t had much success either of late, as last night’s victory pushes the team to 5-5 out of its last ten. The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon gets the call for Pittsburgh and he’s so far 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Taillon has enjoyed varied success agains the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 4.45 ERA over six starts, which includes going 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one outing at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas gets the nod for St. Louis and he’s 6-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over ten starts this season. That includes going 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four home outings. Over 47 career games in the big leagues though Mikolas is 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA, including 8-5 with a 4.37 ERA as a starter. The pick: The Pirates come into this one ranked eighth overall in the league by averaging 4.67 RPG, while also ranked seventh in hitting at .257 average. The Cardinals are averaging 4.28 RPG (ranked 20th) and hitting .240 as a club. Are Mikolas’s early numbers sustainable? I think immediate regression is upcoming and I look for the hungry Pirates to take advantage and atone for yesterday’s late inning collapse. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA has to be thrilled that both conference finals are headed to a Game 7. The first of those two will be the Cleveland Cavs are the Boston Celtics on Sunday night. This series will need a seventh game to decide but the individual games have hardly been tightly contested. Boston's matgin of victory have been by 25, 13 and 13 points, while the Cavs have won their home contests by 30, nine and 10 points. The Celtics have yet to lose at home in the playoffs (going a perfect 10-0) but a Game 7 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers is different from every other test the young team has faced in the postseason. James comes in seeking his eighth straight trip to the Finals (four straight with the Heat and a current three-year run with the Cavs). Cleveland: LBJ stepped up with his team facing elimination in Game 6 on Friday, collecting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in 46 minutes to push Cleveland to a 109-99 win and put himself one win away from an eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. He comes in to this contest averaging 34.9 in Game 7s, including his 45 to help eliminate the Indiana Pacers in this year's first round. King James" has averaged 34 per game in going 13-9 in elimination games over his career. He will likely need help but that help won't come from teh team's second-leading scorer, as Kevin Love (13.9 & 10.0 this postseason) has been ruled out of this contest with a concussion. Jeff Green (14 points) and Larry Nance Jr. (10 points on 5-of-5 shooting) stepped up in Love's absence but can they be counted on again in Game 7? Boston: The Celtics have won the first three home games in the series by an average of 17 points and already own a Game 7 home win under their belts in this postseason, after knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks 112-96 in the first round. "Best player in the game," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said after Friday's game. "Special night tonight and special night in Game 4 ... I can't say enough good things about him." Added Terry Rozier, who has often found himself outmanned in a switching situation that left him on James: "We know LeBron is different than a lot of other guys, but we've got to get the job done." Rozier scored a series-high 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 6 after slumping to eight points on 3-of-15 in Game 5. SG Jaylen Brown had 27 points in Game 6 and is averaging 20.8 points in the series and a team-high 18.3 in the postseason. Rookie SF Tatum is right behind him at 18.2 PPG and was the one who collided with Love. However, Tatum was checked out by doctors Saturday and Stevens said there was "nothing there to be concerned about" with his star rookie. The pick: As noted before throughout this year's playoffs, the Celtics have never lost a series they've led 2-0. If fact, they've made it 36 and 37 straight with this year's first two rounds. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost prized off-season free agent Gordon Hayward in their regular season opener at Cleveland. Then, Boston lost prized off-season trade acquisition, Kyrie Irving (note: Irving's 24.4 PPG average was 10 points higher than the team's second-best scorer!), in mid-March for the remainder of the year. However, the Celtics are just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics own a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but while they are a perfect 10-0 at home, they are only1-6 on the road this postseason (including losses in Games 3 & 4 at Cleveland). As for the Cavs, LeBron James could be playing in his final game in Cleveland before his expected dive into free agency. However, it should come as nor surprise that "The King" is clearly focused on earning one more trip to Boston. "We're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a Game 7," James told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in Wednesday's Game 5. "It's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." Also on the line is LBJ's consecutive Finals streak, as he has gone to the last seven, including the past three with the Cavs. Boston: Rookie SF Jayson Tatum scored 24 points in Game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. The 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in NBA history with 312 points and he trails only Elgin Baylor (331), Alvan Adams (341) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (352). Tatum led Boston in Game 5 but four others scored in double-digits, which tells the story of the Celtics' success this postseason. Tatum has averaged 18.4 & 4.3 this postseason, followed by Brown (17.8 & 4.9), Rozier (16.5-5.5-5.8), Horford (12.5 & 8.5), Morris (12.5 & 5.2) and Smart (10.2-3.8-5.0). Boston's defense was smothering in the Game 5 win. The Cavs were forced into 15 turnovers, as the Celtics changed their starting lineup and went big, inserting Aron Baynes for Marcus Morris but often playing both of them with Al Horford. The Celtics ended the regular season allowing 100.4 PPG (3rd) on 44.0% shooting (2nd), including 33.9% on threes (1st). Cleveland: James had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in Game 5 but he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue (note: LBJ scored only two points in the 4th quarter). "I had my moments, but I think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "I was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." James topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat. That said, the Cavs will need their complementing players to step up. Kevin Love was the only other Cavaliers player who scored in double figures in Game 5, while the team's other three starters (Hill, Smith and Thompson) combined for just 10 points on 2 of 14 shooting! The pick: So where do we (I) stand? LBJ will need help but in the end, it is really all about him. This marks LBJ's 22nd game in which his team will be facing elimination. In the previous 21 games in which his team has faced elimination in the playoffs, James is averaging an NBA-record 33.5 points. He has played in seven of these with the Cavs dating to the 2015 playoffs, and not only is he averaging 36.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in those games, he has scored 40 or more five times and Cleveland has won those four games. The last time the Cavs faced an elimination scenario -- which means the last time they had to deal with the whole "LeBron's last game" narrative -- was Game 7 of the first round against the Pacers. James scored 45 that day and the Cavs survived, although did not cover. However, the Pacers only earned that ATS win by making a meaningless three-pointer in the final seconds. Boston's been unbeatable at home but on the road....NOT SO MUCH! Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors were impressive in winning Game 1 of this series but the team's lackluster performance in Game 2 raised some questions. In particular, many speculated that star PG Stephen Curry, who averaged just 17 points and went a combined 2-of-13 from three-point range, wasn't completely healthy. However, the Warriors emphatically answered all of their doubters with a dominating 126-85 victory in Game 3. Curry found his shot during a third-quarter outburst on Sunday and finished with a game high 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting (on threes). Curry went only 3-of-11 from the floor in the first half on Sunday but then went 7-of-7 in the third quarter while scoring 18 points, sparking a run that put the game out of reach. The 41-point victory was the largest in franchise history during the postseason, topping a 39-point win -- 85-46 -- by the Philadelphia Warriors against the St. Louis Bombers on April 6, 1948 (that's a LONG tiome ago!). As Game 4 approaches, it's top-seeded Houston Rockets, who are now facing similar questions. They will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing performance and even the Western Conference finals at two wins apiece. The Rockets scored 127 points on 51.1 percent shooting while winning Game 2 but suffered the worst playoff loss in franchise history in Game 3, shooting 39.5% (including 11 of 34 on threes) plus attempted only a modest 13 FTs. Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters he was unhappy with the way his team played in Game 3. "Played soft, actually. I mean, you can't do that with these guys. These guys are good."Houston not only shot poorly (see above) but the Rockets committed 20 turnovers that led to 28 points. "We weren't as aggressive as we needed to be," Rockets star James Harden, who agreed with his coach's assessment of the team, told reporters. "We started off the game pretty solid, and then we let them gain some confidence to end the first quarter. But just defensively, they didn't feel us, and it showed tonight." After scoring 27 points in the Game 2 win, backup guard Eric Gordon scored just 11 points on Sunday, shooting 4 of 13 (2-8 on threes). Starting forwards Tucker and Ariza combined fior 41 points in the Game 2 win but each scored just six points in the Game 3 blowout. Harden had 41 points in Game 1 but after scoring 27 points in Game 2, had just 20 points in Game 3. PG Chris Paul, playing in his first-ever conference final, is a woeful 5-of-20 from three-point range in the series. Golden State: Curry, who had missed 17 of his 20 three-point attempts through the first 10 quarters of the series, sent the Warriors' home crowd into a frenzy by making 4 of 5 in the second half Sunday. en route to 35 points. Durant had a modest 25 points but is averaging 33.3 points on 52.9 percent shooting in the series. Draymond Green continues to play the role of the "Great Disruptor," finishing with a modest 10 points but also 17 rebounds and six assists, while serving as the key to the team's much-improved defensive effort. The pick: The Warriors' 41-point Game 3 win gives them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series but it also gave them an NBA-record 16 straight playoff wins at home. A key factor figures to be what I touched on earlier. Important members of the James Harden/Chris Paul supporting cast, Gordon, Tucker and Ariza, combined for 23-of-33 shooting and contributed 68 points in Houston's 127-105 series-evening home win in Game 2. However, they went a combined 8 of 24 and 23 points in the blowout Game 3. The loss was the Rockets' fourth of the postseason but they have rebounded with wins after each of the first three, romping by an average of 20.7 PPG. Of course, this time, they'll be up against a Warriors team that has been to three straight NBA Finals (winning twice). Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors took away the homecourt advantage from the Houston Rockets in their best-of-seven Western Conference finals with a solid 119-106 win in Game 1. However, while many seemed to think "that was all she wrote" for the Rockets in this series, Houston made a strong statement with a 22-point victory in Game 2. However, the series now shifts to Oracle Arena for the next two games, where the Warriors own a 15-game home winning streak in the playoffs (the streak has equaled the Chicago Bulls in 1990-91 as the longest streak in NBA playoff history). In a showdown of the league's two highest scoring offenses, the team that shot the best prevailed in each of the first two meetings. Led by Kevin Durant going 14 of 27 from the floor in a 37-point effort (plus Thompson's 28 points), the Warriors outshot the Rockets 52.5 percent to 45.9 in the Game 1 win. The Rockets then countered in Game 2 with a more balanced approach, with Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combining to go 23 of 33 (69.7%), accounting for 68 of Houston's 127 points in the win. Houston shot 51.1 percent, while Golden State shot 45.9%. Houston: The Rockets didn't win 65 games (seven more than Golden State) in the regular season by accident. Houston sees an opportunity to take back control of the series and insists it is unfazed as it enters two straight games in Oakland. "The challenge is you're playing Golden State," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "That's why they've won 15 in a row, not because of the building, but because they're good. I mean, everybody, all these players are used to playing in hostile environments or loud or whatever. I mean, it helps a little bit. Sometimes you feed off the energy also from the other crowd. So you try to take them out as soon as you can and take out the crowd, but they're a good basketball team." PG Chris Paul had 16 points, six assists and three steals in the Game 2 win while fighting through a calf issue that he says will not hold him back for Sunday's tilt. Paul has outscored Curry 39-34 in the series and been more efficient, but also has struggled from long range, shooting just 3 of 12 on three-pointers. After a 41-point effort in the Game 1 loss, Harden had a more modest 27 in Game 2 plus was only 3 of 15 on threes. Eric Gordon led the way in Game 2 by scoring 27 points while making 6-of-9 from three-point range in Game 2 after averaging just 9.7 points and hitting 5-of-18 from beyond the arc over his previous three contests. Tucker scored 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting in Game 2, after going 35 minutes without a field goal in Game 1 plus Ariza was 7-of-9 from the floor (19 points). Golden State: KD has been an unstoppable force so far (he's averaged 37.5 points on 55.1 percent shooting in the series) but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled to shoot a combined 10-for-30 from the floor. "I've gone 0-for-11 before shooting 3s and 1-for-8, whatever the case is," Curry told reporters Friday. "I always shoot that next shot with the optimism and confidence that it's going in. So, you can work on stuff between practices and games to get your rhythm, just seeing the ball going in and working on your mechanics, but [I'll] never lose confidence in myself. That'll never change." Curry is 2-of-13 in the series on threes and Thompson, after an excellent Game 1, shot 3-of-11 overall, scoring just eight points in the Game 2 loss. The pick: The Warriors lost just once in four playoff series en route to the championship last year (16-1), suffered their third loss of the 2018 postseason in Game 2. They have rebounded to win by a total of 34 points in the game after each of their first two losses. However, the Rockets had the best road record in the NBA during the regular season (31-10), and have won three of four on the road in their first two playoff series. "I'm feeling great," Curry said in the aftermath of the Game 2 loss. How do we really know, though. Curry missed Golden State's 4-1 victory over San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs and then the opener against New Orleans in the second round with a sprained left MCL. He has started the last five games but has been well below his usual high standard in the first two against the Rockets, averaging 17.0 points while missing 11 of 13 three-point shots. The Rockets have attacked Curry on defense, prompting many to question the former two-time Most Valuable Player's health. The Warriors will be hosting a Game 3 for the first time since 2014 and they lost that game 98-96 to the Los Angeles Clippers, with Paul contributing 15 points and 10 assists to the winning effort. Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-20-18 | Yankees v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Gary Sanchez homered twice among four hits to lead a 14-hit attack (including a season-high five HRs) in Saturday's 8-3 triumph for the Yankees, evening the team's three-game series with the Royals at a game apiece. Aaron Hicks had an inside-the-park homer and scored twice for New York, which has now won 20 of its last 24 and owns MLB's best record at 29-13. Kansas City opened the series with a 5-2 win on Friday but will host the rubber match of the set with a 14-31 record, leaving them with a better record than only the sad-sack White Sox in the AL. The Yankees will try to extend their streak of series wins to eight when they take on the host Royals on Sunday, plus hope to improve to 9-1 against American League Central foes here in 2018. The pitching matchup: The Yankees give the ball to struggling righty Sonny Gray (2-3, 6.39 ERA), while the Royals turn to left-hander Eric Skoglund (1-3, 5.58 ERA) in the series finale. Gray allowed two runs and four hits in six innings in back-to-back starts, before getting roughed up in a loss to Oakland on May 11. He surrendered five runs on a season-high nine hits - including two home runs - in the outing. Gray will be well rested on Sunday, as he has not pitched in eight days because of the schedule. The Yankees had days off Monday and Thursday, were rained out Wednesday in Washington after getting Tuesday's game suspended following the top of the sixth inning. Gray is 1-2 in four career starts against the Royals but owns a solid 2.77 ERA. Skoglund is off his longest start of the year, having allowed two runs in 7 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay on Monday (Royals lost 2-1). He lasted at least seven innings in two of his four home starts but was limited to 4 2/3 innings in the other two at Kauffman Stadium, giving up five runs in both of those clunkers. This marks his first career start vs. the Yankees. The pick: Sure, the Yankees own MLB's best record but Gray has had little to do with that. He has struggled all season with a 6.39 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and opponents hitting .284 against him. The Yankees are just 3-5 in his eight starts in 2018 and has pitched five or less innings in five of his eight starts this season. Gray has posted only one victory since April 7 and is 6-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 19 starts since being acquired from the Athletics in a trade on July 31. Clearly, he has not been 'the savior' the Yanks thought he would be. Why not take the 1 1/2 runs with the Royals? Make KC an 8* play. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have little margin for error after losing the first two games of this series at Boston. It's not so much that the Celtics won both Game 1 and Game 2, Boston is 9-0 this postseason at TD Garden, but how they won them. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) on Tuesday couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. "We've got to be tougher, mentally and physically," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "We've got to come out swinging. We've got to be aggressive. I think we've got to be physical, and we've got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they're coming in, playing tough. They're aggressive, and we've got to match that." That sounds good but the fact is, of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series. Boston surely doesn't want to provide a glimmer of hope,as the Celtics are well aware that LBJ has led his team to seven straight NBA Finals appearances (the last three years with the Cavs). The Celtics are looking to move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA Finals berth since 2010. "We're going to have to be really focused, really locked in, really consistent," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "It's even harder to communicate on the road. You've got to be great communicating." Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown is back healthy and has been the team's highest scorer in this series with solid back-to-back 23-point outings (17.8 PPG in the playoffs, overall), while rookie SF Jayson Tatum leads the team this postseason at 18.1 PPG. PG Terry Rozier (17.4-5.6-5.6) has filled in for the injured Kyrie Irving admirably and veteran C/PF Al Horford is averaging 17.1-8.4-3.6 this postseason. PF Morris checks in at 12.9 & 5.4 plus reserve guard Marcus Smart (10.5-4.0-5.0) continues to be a presence on both ends of the court. However, he is just 7-of-21 shooting (33.3%) this series, as part of a struggling Boston bench. Also note that Tatum is averaging 13.5 points through two games of this series, after a franchise rookie record stretch of seven straight 20-point outings. Cleveland: It's always mostly about LBJ with this team but with Boston's starting backcourt of Brown and Terry Rozier outscoring the Cavs' starting guards 72-12, Tyronn Lue knows that can't continue. In particular, shooting guard JR Smith is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting, including 0-of-7 from three-point range. Then there is PG George Hill, who is averaging four points and 0.5 assists in the series. James was bothered by a strained neck after Game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. The Cavs are a veteran team but the bottom line is, only four players remain from the 2016 championship team (James, Kevin Love, JR Smith, and Tristan Thompson) plus Kyle Korver represents the only other current Cavs player on the 2017 Finals team that lost in five games to Golden State. This veteran group lost its composure in the second half of Game 2, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and missing all eight threes in the fourth quarter! The pick: OK, so where are we? Boston may be 9-0 at home in the playoffs but the Celtcis are just 1-4 on the road, with statistical drops in just about every major category when playing away from TD Garden. The Celtics are also a young team missing its two best players, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 5-1 at home this postseason, although they are a 'money-burning' 1-5 ATS. While the Cavs aren't what they once were (remember, Irving used to play for them), but organizationally they are the three-time defending conference champs. Remember that stat which said " of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series?" Note that of the 19 teams who've made the comeback, two were led by LeBron James. LBJ has topped 40 points five times this postseason and is averaging 33.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. "With a little help from his friends," LBJ's Cavs get back in this series with a convincing win. Make Cleveland a 10* play.
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05-18-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox won 6-2 in Thursday's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Home runs by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts backed David Price's first complete game since 2016. Mookie Betts added three hits to boost his AL-leading average to .364 and Martinez homered for the eighth time in his last 15 games, although he left early due to a stomach ailment. The victory marked Boston's seventh straight over Baltimore, dating to 2017. The Red Sox will try to extend their winning streak against the Baltimore Orioles to eight games when the AL East rivals continue a four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday. The Orioles had won five of six while scoring at least five runs in each victory before being held to a total of three runs on nine hits in back-to-back losses, 4-1 to the Phillies on Wednesday and last night in Fenway to the Red Sox. The lone bright spot for Baltimore was when Manny Machado broke up Price's shutout bid with a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth for his fifth home run in a seven-game span.
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-5, 7.06 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 5.47 ERA) gets the nod for Boston.Cobb has been a huge bust so far (he spent his firest six seasons with the Rays), as he remains in search of his first win of 2018. He's made six starts with Baltimore losing all six. The Boston native allowed three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, while getting through a start without issuing a walk for the first time this year. However, he was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) in 3 2/3 innings at Fenway Park in his season debut and is 6-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Pomeranz is off an excellent season (17-6, 3.32 ERA) but has not come near matching that effort here in 2018, after beginning the season on the D (he has made just five starts). He delivered a pair of quality starts to begin May but then lasted just four innings while giving up three runs on five hits and five walks at Toronto on Sunday. He has allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 24 2/3 innings overall, to register an early WHIP of 1.66, which would be his highest mark since 2013. Pomeranz owns a 3.34 ERA in eight career matchups (five starts) against the Orioles. The pick: Cobb was one of those late-signing free agents who didn't get much of a spring training and the results have shown just that. However, he has recovered from a dismal April (3.11 ERA) to produce a 3.06 ERA in three May starts plus he is 5-2 in eight career starts at Boston's Fenway Park. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-13-18 | Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-11-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets opened 11-1 but open a three-game series in Philadelphia with the Phillies having lost 16 of their last 23 games, including eight of nine to fall to 18-17. Philadelphia lost four of five to open the season but have made a solid turnaround since then, as the Phillies are now 22-15 overall (that's a 21-11 run), after capping a four-game sweep of San Francisco with a 6-3 win on Thursday. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) to the mound and Philly counters with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA). Matz suffered a disastrous seven-run outing on April 25 but rebounded with his first quality start of the season in Saturday's 2-0 loss to Colorado. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. The 26-year-old had his start pushed back due to a stiff back and while allowed a first-inning HR (his 6th in 27 2/3 innings), he settled down. Matz pitched well in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, permitting two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 setback on Aug. 12. Arrieta missed Philadelphia's first series versus New York, as he worked himself into shape after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. He will be back on the mound Friday night for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. He was part of a pitchers' duel in his last outing, facing Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals (he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks last Sunday in six innings). Arrieta enjoyed a three-start winning streak before getting blitzed against Miami on April 30, but rebounded at Washington on Sunday. He has posted a 2-2 mark with a 2.30 ERA in seven career appearances versus the Mets. |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees found themselves 7 1/2 games behind the Red Sox on April 20. Boston's 17-2 run allowed them to seize control of the American League East early on However, Boston's gone 8-9 since that blistering start, while the Yankees have utilized a 17-1 run to take over the top spot in the division (a 2-1 loss to Houston on April 30 being the only blemish). The Yankees now look to make it 18 of 19 and complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox when the American League East rivals meet Thursday in the Bronx. Stanton's two HRs led the way to a 3-2 win on Tuesday and last night, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge combined for six hits, six runs and five RBI, including four on consecutive hits - Gardner's two-run triple and Judge's two-run homer - against Boston closer Craig Kimbrel in an eighth-inning rally that lifted New York to a 9-6 victory. "They're playing good baseball," Kimbrel said. You think? Beside the 17-1 run, the Yankees are on their second eight-game winning streak of the season and their 11-game home winning streak is the longest since a 12-game run from April 25-June 1, 1985.
The pitching matchup: It's a battle of lefties on Thursday, as Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29 ERA) goes for the Red Sox, opposed by CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.39 ERA) of the Yankees. Rodriguez posted three straight quality starts in the middle of April but has given up five runs in each of his last two outings. He struck out 10 in six innings but served up three HRs in his last start Saturday at Texas. He is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is coming off a successful 2017, when the Yankees went 19-8 in his 27 starts, giving him MLB's 4th-best moneyline mark at plus-$1163. He is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19 (Yankees are 4-0), including six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday (he got a no-decision in NY's 7-6 win). He has not allowed a HR in each of those four starts and has issued only three walks over his last five outings. The 37-year-old is 17-13 with a 4.12 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics have never lost a playoff series after taking a 2-0 lead (36-0 all-time) and in this series against the 76ers, won Game 3, as well. Yes, Philly won Game 4 at home to stave off elimination but both the 76ers and Celtics are well aware that all 130 teams which have fallen behind 0-3 in a best-of-seven series (including Toronto just losing to Cleveland in the 2018 postseason) have failed in their attempt to make a 'miracle' comeback. The Celtics were outplayed by the 76ers in Monday's 103-92 loss but the post-game mood wasn't overly somber. "It's 3-1, we get a chance to go back to Boston," forward Marcus Morris told reporters. "Nobody's head is down. We're all motivated. We're happy. It would've been better to end it (Monday), but so be it. We go back to Boston and play." As for the 76ers, they are still maintaining hope that they can become the first team to rally from a 0-3 deficit and win a playoff series. "This thing can be done," Philadelphia forward Robert Covington told reporters. "We've done it before as far as finishing the season strong so why can't we do this? We're playing against history, but we've played against history before so why can't we do something great?" Philadelphia: T.J. McConnell will draw his second straight start after posting 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 39 minutes in Game 4. McConnell started just one game during the regular season but he provided a tone for Monday's win by making 9-of-12 from the floor and not committing any turnovers, as part of Philly's three-guard lineup (joining Simmons and Redick). "He changed everything," 76ers center Joel Embiid told reporters. "He was pressing full court the whole time doing his job, running the offense, getting guys involved, making shots, layups." SF Covington came of the bench, while PF Saric had his best game of the postseason in Game 4, scoring 25 points and adding eight rebounds (he had averaged 12.3 points over the first three games of the series). Simmons bounced back from his one-point effort in Game 3 with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Embiid added 15 & 13 (he's averaging 20.6 & 12.7 in seven playoff games). Boston: The injury-ravaged Celtics suffered another one in Game 4, as Shane Larkin injuring his left shoulder running into the wall known as Embiid. Head coach Stevens said Tuesday he won't know until Wednesday's shoot-around whether he'll have his backup guard. The Celtics were sloppy as their four-game playoff winning streak came to an end. "I mean, obviously, what did we end up with? Fifteen turnovers," Stevens said after the game. "The offensive rebounds were enormous for them, just the extra possessions. Neither team shot it great, but they were really good tonight." Guard Terry Rozier has emerged as a postseason hero with Kyrie Irving out for the year, but he will need to bounce back from his first sub-par game of the series. He had just two assists and scored only 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 4. Rozier averaged 22.3 points over the first three games of the series and has scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the postseason (18.3-5.5-6.1 in 11 playoff games). SF Jayson Tatum is averaging 23.3 points in the series and has extended his rookie franchise postseason record of consecutive 20-point games to six.
The pick: Boston having never lost a series in which it has gone up 2-0 in plus the fact that teams falling behind 0-3 in a series are 0-130 all-time, make Philly's chances at coming all the way back to win this series seem futile. Throw in that Boston is also 6-0 SU at home this postseason and it's more than fair to say Philly's postseason hopes are 'on life-support.' However, the 76ers can win here and still lose the series, so let's stick to this Game 5 analysis. Philly did not play well in Game 1 but had chances to win in each of the next three games, finally breaking through in Game 4. Note that Game 4 was not exactly Philly at its best. We haven't seen that yet. My bet is we will see that tonight, as Philly starts to make Boston 'sweat' with a win that sens this series back to Philly for a Game 6. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston Rockets drilled the Jazz in Game 1 of this series but then lost Game 2. However, the league's best regular season team (65-17) rebounded with back-to-back double-digit victories at Salt Lake City to take a commanding 3-1 series lead." Houston is that good. Give them credit. They know how to control a game," Jazz head coach Snyder told reporters after a 100-87 loss on Sunday in Game 4. Chris Paul ate up Utah's defense with a string of short jumpers en route to a 27-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort for Houston, his best game of the 2018 postseason. James Harden added 24 points, while center Clint Capela had 12 & 15, his fifth double-double in his last six games. The Jazz shot 38.6% as a team, including an awful 7 of 29 (24.1%) on threes. The Rockets are aiming for their eighth trip to a conference finals and their first since 2015, when they lost to Golden State, Utah: Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell is doing his best to be the leader on the offensive end (24.4 PPG in the playoffs) but PG Ricky Rubio has still not played in the series due to a hamstring issue. That's allowed the Rockets to key in on the 21-year-old, who was 8-of-24 from the floor Sunday as the Jazz shot a playoff-low 38.6 percent. Joe Ingles had 27 points in the Game 2 win at Houston but averaged just 10.5 on 34.8 percent shooting in the two contests at home. Mitchell and Ingles shot 30 percent and 34.8 percent at Vivint Smart Home Arena, respectively, with both missing 10 of 14 three-pointers. PF Derrick Favors was limited to 16 minutes in Game 4 due to a sprained ankle, as injuries have taken their toll on Utah. Houston: Harden and Paul get the bulk of the headlines but center Clint Capela's ability to raise his game has made Houston particularly dangerous this spring. He had 12 points, 15 rebounds and six blocked shots in Game 4 and is averaging 15.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in the playoffs, all increases from the regular season. The Rockets are undoubtedly the better team and for the most part, have been the more aggressive team. Heading into Game 5, Houston has made 75 FTs to Utah's 55. Harden has made 36 free throws in the series, while Mitchell leads Utah with just 12. The pick: The Rockets would love to put Utah away here and move on to an all but guaranteed showdown with teh Warriors. However, a win doesn't figure to come easily. Utah's Snyder said after Game 4, "We missed 22 shots at the rim. We had our chances and didn't convert. Some of them were contested. Some of them were open. You're not going to get any better shot." I expect Mitchell and Ingles to shoot much better than they did in the last two games plus how can Jae Crowder shoot any worse? He was 2-of-17 from the floor over the last two games. after going 13-of-23 over the first two. As for the Rockets, despite a 13-point win in Game 4, Harden and Paul combined to make just 2 of 13 three-point attempts. For the series, Harden is converting on a modest 36.0% of his threes, while Paul is making only 29.4% of his three-point attempts. What's also to be noted is that Houston is just 20-25-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 10-18-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points. Make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1, 2 and 3. The Cavs now look to deliver yet another damaging blow in this one-sided rivalry by completing a four-game sweep Monday night at home. Toronto: LeBron James knocked down a running buzzer-beater to give his team a 105-103 victory in Game 3 on Saturday. "Our goal in the timeout was to trap him and make someone else beat us," Toronto head ach Dwane Casey told reporters of a play that will haunt him. "He split the trap and went 100 miles an hour down the floor and lost them. We just didn't execute. It was probably my fault that I didn't make it clear that we wanted to trap him and get the ball out of his hands. We had it started in the backcourt, and for whatever reason, we let him out of the trap." The Raptors couldn't contain LBJ (see more below) plus their task of winning Game 3 was made all the more difficult when leading scorer DeMar DeRozan struggled the way he did, producing just eight points (more than 15 below his average this postseason) on 3-of-12 shooting. That led to a benching of DeRozan during a critical portion of the fourth quarter. "It's extremely hard, extremely hard," DeRozan told reporters of sitting on the sidelines while his teammates made a late push. "I just want to be out there helping my team, way more than anything. It definitely sucks to be watching ... we've got to give credit to those guys. We fought hard and gave ourselves a chance to win." The Raptors made Game 3 close behind the efforts of Kyle Lowry, who scored 15 of his 27 during the comeback. Lowry is averaging 22 points on 62.9 percent shooting in the series. Cleveland: LeBron James is putting on a display this postseason that will be talked about for ages. The game-winner on Saturday capped a 38-point effort for the superstar, who is averaging 34.8 points on 54.7 percent shooting to go along with 9.5 rebounds and 8.8 assists during the playoffs. "I've been doing that since I was like six, seven, eight years old," James told reporters of his latest clutch moment. "Maybe even before that. There's a picture floating around of me beside a Little Tikes hoop with a saggy Pamper on and I was doing it back then and all the way up until now, at 33." However, maybe even more important for Cleveland's long-term outlook this spring, was the second straight solid game for big man Kevin Love, who had 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting and 16 rebounds (he had 31 & 11 in Game 2). The pick: Teams that fall behind 0-3 in the playoffs are 0-129 in NBA history, giving Toronto virtually insurmountable odds to come out on top against a team it cannot seem to solve. However, we are talking ONLY about Game 4 here and the Raptors can lose and still "get the cash! I noted before Game 3 in taking the Raptors that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. Also, the Cavs were 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. After Toronto's Game 4 cover, the updated numbers for Cleveland are 0-5 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-32-1 ATS at home on the year. Take the points and make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics needed seven games to dispatch the Bucks in the opening round, as the home team won all seven games. Meanwhile, "The Process" was coming to fruition with the 76ers taking care of the Heat in five games. Making things look even worse for Boston was the fact that not only were the Celtics without Kyrie Irving (not to mention Hayward) but they had to open this best-of-seven series with Jaylen Brown injured. He had been Boston's top scorer against the Bucks, until getting sidelined during the team's Game 7 win over Milwaukee. Brown sat out Game 1 of this series but Boston was able to win that game with ease, 117-101. Then, with Brown coming off the bench in Games 2 and 3, the Celtics were able to rally from a 22-point deficit to beat the 76ers 108-103 in Game 2 plus earn an OT at Phiily in Game 3. The Celtics will now take a commanding 3-0 lead into Game 4, as the 76ers look to avoid a four-game sweep. Boston: The Celtics received 24 points from rookie Jayson Tatum while Al Horford scored the final five points of the game as they earned a stunning 101-98 overtime victory Saturday. Philly's Marco Belinelli’s jumper with less than a second left in the fourth quarter caused confetti to fill the air at the Wells Fargo Center, but his foot was inside the 3-point line and it only tied the game, then Boston rallied in overtime to win. The veteran Horford scored seven of his 13 points in overtime and had a key steal in the final seconds that snuffed out a chance for Philadelphia to win the contest. Tatum is averaging 24.3 points in the series and guard Terry Rozier continues to shine while leading the team in scoring during the playoffs at 19.0 PPG. Philadelphia: Joel Embiid scored 22 points and grabbed 19 rebounds (he's now registered five straight double-doubles in the playoffs) but the 76ers shot just 39.2 percent from the floor on Saturday, while turning the ball over in key situations. Rookie PG Ben Simmons did rebound from his 'ugly' Game 2 performance (one point, five turnovers) to score 16 while recording eight rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s setback. “I have a lot of growing to do,” Simmons told ESPN.com. Shooting guard J.J. Redick is averaging 20.3 points in the series but PF Dario Saric is 5-of-23 from three-point range in the last five games, after draining 11-of-23 in the first three playoff contests. SF Robert Covington had just one point in Saturday’s loss, going 0-fo-8 from the floor. The pick: Philly is well aware that a series win is highly unlikely. It's been well documented that all 129 teams have failed to win a series after falling behind 0-3. However, this Philadelphia team has had a terrific season and I see them "winning one for the Gipper" here in Game 4. Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. Lay the points and make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +6 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets put their Game 2 loss at home to the Jazz behind themselves with an impressive display of basketball in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Salt Lake City . The Jazz upset the Rockets 116-108 in Game 2 as an 11-point underdog to temporarily wrest home-court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets. However, Houston answered in convincing fashion when the series shifted to Utah, opening a 30-point halftime lead and cruising from there to a 113-92 victory. James Harden scored 25 points and handed out 12 assists, while Eric Gordon added 25 points off the bench (he had totaled only 22 points in Games 1 and 2, combined). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell has taken a leadership roll for Utah this postseason but scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Houston now looks to take a 3-1 series lead when the teams meet Sunday at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Houston: Shooting guard Eric Gordon was a big factor in Houston's turnaround, as he made 8-of-13 from the floor in Game 3, after shooting under 50 percent in each of his first seven games this postseason. Also, the All Star duo of Harden and Chris Paul combined for 18 assists against one turnover in Friday's game (Paul added 15 points). Harden is now averaging 30.4 points in the postseason, identical to his league-leading average during the regular season. Houston is also benefiting from having made 59 free throws in the first three games of the series, compared to only 39 for the Jazz. Utah: "I didn't really do much as a whole, like I wasn't there," Mitchell told the media after Game 3. "That can't happen. That will probably be what I take away the most. It's like I would have been better off just not showing up, because that's what I did. I didn't show up at all for my teammates, and I'll fix it." PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring) has been doing some agility drills and light work on the court as he approaches a potential return but Utah also has another injury concern in the form of Derrick Favors, who left Game 3 with a sprained ankle. Favors, who averaged 12.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting in the first round against Oklahoma City, told reporters he hopes to play in Game 4. The Jazz also need to get a bounce-back effort from Joe Ingles, after he followed up a 27-point effort in Game 2 with a six-point showing in Friday's loss. The pick: Houston has now won all three meetings in Utah this season by double digits. That hardly bodes well for the Jazz but don't forget how well Utah played down the stretch, going 29-6 over their last 35 regular season games. This is pretty much a "must-win" for Utah, as a comeback from 3-1 against Houston would be h highly unlikely. Take the home dog Jazz and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Bruins +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bruins shocked the Lightning in Game 1 of their semifinal series, 6-2. However, Tampa Bay has won three straight since, putting Boston on the verge of elimination as the teams take the ice this Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos tied the contest in the third period of Game 4 and defenseman Dan Girardi tipped home the game-winner in overtime, as the Lightning rallied for a 4-3 victory Friday to give themselves a chance to finish their second series in five games. The Bruins have not recorded an even-strength goal since Game 2, after scoring twice with the man advantage and once short-handed during the rally that gave them a 3-2 lead in the third period Friday, before folding. Boston: Not only is Boston down 3-1 in the series but defenseman Torey Krug, who has 12 points in 11 playoff games, suffered a left ankle injury after crashing into the boards feet first on Friday. He has been ruled out for the rest of the series, perhaps giving veteran blue liner Nick Holden a spot in the lineup. Left wing Brad Marchand had a pair of assists Friday and boasts eight points in the series (17 in the postseason), but has managed only seven shots on goal overall in the four games. Left wing Rick Nash, who has five goals and four assists in his last four playoff games at Tampa Bay, scored twice in Game 1 but has been held to one assist since. Tampa Bay: The Lightning's top line is beginning to produce after a slow start to the series, as Nikita Kucherov scored on the power play and Stamkos had a goal for the second straight contest. “Our line has been talking a lot about wanting to have a better game,” Stamkos said of his unit that includes J.T. Miller. “Obviously, it’s not a matter of will. We knew eventually it was going to come.” Defenseman Victor Hedman did not have a point in the first playoff series, but has recorded five assists in the last four games against Boston to become the franchise’s postseason leader in that category (36). The pick: Here's some really good news for Lightning fans. They return home for Game 5 on Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena with history on their side, as no Lightning team has ever blown a 3-1 lead in the playoffs and the Bruins are 0-23 in series they trailed 3-1. What's more, Boston will have to stay alive without arguably their best defenseman in Torey Krug (see above). The Lightning's quick dismissal of New Jersey in the opening round gave them a full week of rest before this series and if they can dispatch the Bruins on Sunday, they can rest again, with all the other series going at least six games. It all sounds juts "too good" for me. “Desperate hockey,” explained Boston center Patrice Bergeron of the mindset for Sunday. “You know we’ve shown character all year. You know I’ve spoken about the resilience in this room, so it’s time to show it.” Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Boston a 6* play. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. The Cavs now look to deliver another damaging blow in the one-sided rivalry when the teams meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday. Toronto: As noted, the Raptors won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season to earn the top seed in the East for the first time but the Raptors are down 0-2 and Toronto is searching for answers as it heads to Cleveland. DeRozan had 24 points and Kyle Lowry 21, as the Raptors shot 54.3 percent as a team but they offered little resistance at the other end (the Cavs shot 59.5%) while forcing just three turnovers, giving the Cavaliers a 24-8 advantage in that category this series. Toronto has been outscored 34-8 in points off turnovers (Cleveland set a franchise record with just three turnovers in a 128-110 win in Game 2), and by 12 points in the fourth quarter. DeRozan is 0-for-13 from three-point range over his last three games, plus after putting up a double-double in Toronto's first playoff game of 2018 (23 & 12), PF Ibaka has averaged 5.9 & 5.4 over his last seven games. Cleveland: James had 43 points, eight rebounds and 14 assists in Game 2 and hasn't needed much help during the playoffs. However, he was given a boost in Game 2 with a breakout effort from big man Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting through the first eight playoff games, the veteran had 31 points on 11-of-21 shooting in Thursday's win, plus added 11 rebounds. James has scored at least 44 points in each of his last three playoff home games, so it will be up to the Raptors to change the narrative in Game 3. The pick: Is that possible? Sure. Note that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. The Cavs are 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and are now a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team in 2018, as the teams met for Game 1 of this year's Eastern Conference semifinal series. If Game 1 is an indication, nothing much has changed. LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers once again got the better of the Toronto Raptors, winning 113-112. The Cavaliers will now attempt to maintain their postseason dominance over the Raptors with a chance tonight to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, before heading back home for Games 3 and 4. Cleveland: LBJ recorded his 21st career playoff triple-double (26-11-13) as Cleveland erased a 13-point deficit in the second half and survived multiple chances for the Raptors to win late in regulation and again in the closing seconds of overtime. JR Smith (20) and Kyle Korver (19) came up big for the Cavs, who never once led in regulation. The Cavs take the court tonight having won nine of 11 playoff meetings with the Raptors over the last three postseasons. One reason being, that Cleveland has hit at least 13 three-pointers in all five playoff games against Toronto over the last two seasons. Toronto: "A lot of things, we did to ourselves," head coach Dwane Casey told the media after the game. "I think we're a better team. We just didn't make the shots down the stretch. I know it sounds simplistic, but we had our open looks, had our opportunities, that we didn't cash in on, and some other things we could clean up defensively." Toronto has certainly heard all the talk of being owned by Cleveland and it seemed to lose its mental edge when the Cavaliers made things tight down the stretch on Tuesday. That said, center Jonas Valanciunas had 21 points and 21 rebounds to become the first player in franchise history with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds in a postseason game. However, the Raptors also committed 14 turnovers that led to 21 points for Cleveland, while forcing just six TOs. The pick: The Raptors changed their approach in Game 1, trying for a more balanced attack and creating an athletic and effective bench. Why not, after being eliminated two years in a row by the Cleveland Cavaliers? However, the more things change, the more they stay the same. For as much as the Raptors controlled Game 1 at the Air Canada Centre, they could not close it out (note: the Raptors missed their final 11 field goal attempts in regulation!) and the Cavaliers eked out a 113-112 overtime victory. The Raptors shot 32.1 percent from beyond the arc (9-for-28) and while they shot 42.9 percent (39-for-91) from the floor overall, they shot only 20.8 percent (9-for-24) in the fourth quarter. I had Cleveland in Game 1 and will take the points again here, in Game 2. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: As great as LBJ is, most believe that James Harden will win this year's MVP award. No one will get any arguments from the Utah Jazz. Harden scored 41 points in Houston's series-opening 110-96 victory to continue his season-long assault of the Jazz. He averaged 34.3 points in four meetings with the Utah in the regular season, including a 56-point outing, and the defensive-minded Jazz once again had no answers on slowing down the MVP candidate. Defensively, the Jazz were overrun by the Rockets' exceptional three-point shooting (17 for 32) and victimized early by some leaky transition defense. The Jazz lacked energy in the first half following a short turnaround from the completion of their first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder less than 48 hours prior to tip-off. However, Utah isn't fretting over the Game 1 loss as it also lost the opener of its first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder before recovering to win in six games. Utah: The Jazz were inundated with a number of causes behind their Game 1 loss but it all starts with the team missing starting PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell and veteran swingman Joe Ingles produced five assists each plus Utah received steady play from guards Dante Exum an Alec Burks off the bench. However, the Jazz missed Rubio's ball-handling skill and passing acumen. Mitchell picked up a large portion of the ball-handling and he committed four turnovers to go with 9-of-22 shooting while scoring 21 points in the opener. Mitchell's point total was his lowest in seven games this postseason (27.4 PPG this postseason) and he was also hampered by a sore ankle, although he insists won't be a problem in Game 2. The Jazz also missed the defensive presence of center Rudy Gobert, despite the fact that Gobert logged 35 minutes in the Game 1 loss. A Defensive Player of the Year candidate and league leader by a healthy margin in defensive real plus-minus, Gobert was a non-factor on that end, failing to record a block for the first time this postseason and just the eighth time overall. Gobert averaged 2.3 blocks and ranked second in the NBA in block percentage (6.0), yet the Rockets had success attacking the rim with Gobert stationed there to defend it, shooting 8 of 9 with Gobert within three feet of the rim. Gobert finished with 11 points and nine rebounds Houston: Harden received complementary help in Game 1 from PG Chris Paul (17 points), center Clint Capela (16 points, 12 rebounds) and forward PJ Tucker (15 points) in the opener. However, reserve SG Eric Gordon, who averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, missed all six of his shots in Game 1 and is shooting just 31.4 percent from the floor in the postseason while averaging a modest 12.5 PPG. The pick: The Rockets have been the NBA's best team so far this regular and postseason but head into this game just 20-24-1ATS on their homecourt. It remains unclear whether Rubio will return later in the series but I will back Utah (with some big points) in this Game 2, as the Jazz are 33-9 SU over their last 42 games. Take the points and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: LBJ led the Cavs to a first-round victory over the Indiana Pacers but if took seven games. James had 45 points in the Game 7 clincher (105-101) and he's now a perfect 13-0 in opening round playoff series in his career. However, the Cavs hardly looked dominating, as the Pacers covered SIX of the seven games. LeBron averaged 34.4 PPG in the series, with only Kevin Love (11.4) joining in in double digits in scoring for the seven-game set. The Toronto Raptors are the East's top seed (won a franchise record 59 games this regular season) but also didn't have an easy time of it in the first round. Toronto took a 2-0 lead over the Wizards but WWashingtonm won Games 3 and 4 at home, before the Raptors closed them out in six games. The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseaons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors are finally the favored team and hope to play like it when the teams begin their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup Tuesday night with Game 1 in Toronto. DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 26.7 PPG vs. Washington, feels that his team is finally ready to topple Cleveland, even if the roster is roughly the same. "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with," DeRozan told reporters. "You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Cleveland: LBJ played 41.2 minutes per game in the series with Indiana, after playing all 82 games during the regular season. James, who admitted after Sunday's win that he was "burnt right now," produced 29.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 8.0 eight assists in three matchups with the Raptors during the regular season plus averaged 36 points in last year's sweep of the Raptors. Toronto: DeRozan (26.7 & 4.8 APG) and Lowry (17.2 & 8.3 APG) need to play great plus Toronto would love to see reserves Wright (10.7) and Miles (9.3) continue their solid play off the bench. Center Valanciunas (13.5 & 9.3) posted good numbers but played little during the fourth quarter for most of the series. PG Ibaka was the Game 1 star (23 & 12) but averaged a "missing in action" 6.0 PPG over the series' last five games. Toronto can't afford that. The pick: Toronto figures to have a big advantage when the teams go to their benches and the Raptors' reserves were given a big boost with the return of guard Fred VanVleet for Game 6 against Washington (he missed four games in the series due to a shoulder injury. Cleveland knows all about VanVleet's ability to provide a spark, as the second-year pro averaged 15.7 points and five assists in 25.3 minutes off the bench against the Cavaliers this season. However, this series is still about "King James," and remarkably he is showing no ill effects of his heavy workload. He's like the "Energizer Bunny." James became the NBA's career playoff leader in steals and minutes played during the first round, after he became the points leader in 2017. James ranks first in points (6,404), first in minutes played (9,415), first in steals (399), third in assists (with 1,543), sixth in games played (224), seventh in rebounds (1,993) and 19th in blocks (216) in the all-time playoff ranks. Make LBJ (I mean Cleveland) a 10* play. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics open their seven-game series tonight at TD Garden and missing will be Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Kevin McHale, Hal Greer, John Havlicek and Billy Cunningham. The point being, it's a new day and new time in this rivalry. The Process" is no longer a punch line, as the 76ers won their final 16 regular season games and then eliminated the Heat handily in teh first round of teh 2018 playoffs, 4-1. As for the Celtics, the era of Pierce, Garnett and Allen had come to an end when Brad Stevens took over in 2013-14, with the Celtics going 25-57.However, that season was no more than a speed bump, as "Butler Brad" has Boston back among the Eastern Conference elite, despite battling key injuries. The Celtics needed everything they had to survive a seven-game, first-round series with the Milwaukee Bucks and their reward is an Eastern Conference semifinals matchup with one of the hottest teams in the league in the rested Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia: The Sixers eliminated the Heat back on April 24 and the extra rest cannot be a bad thing for star center Joel Embiid, who returned from an orbital fracture to play the final three games of the series with the Heat. He averaged 18.7 points and 10.3 rebounds in those three games and shot 8-of-14 from the floor in Game 5. JJ Redick was Philadelphia's top scorer versus the Heat with 20.0 PPG but rookie PG Ben Simmons was nothing short of "special" in his first-ever postseason series, averaging 18.2-10.6-9.0 and 2.4 steals. The Sixers have waited through years of tanking to get back to respectability and now get their latest shot at their long-time rivals. Boston: The Celtics rose to the challenge of a Game 7 (nothing new there) against the Bucks this past Saturday, shooting 53.6% in a 112-96 win. However, the big question heading into Game 1 of this series will be the status of shooting guard Jaylen Brown, who left the clincher against Milwaukee due to a hamstring injury. Brown had been Boston's top scorer through six games and hopes to not miss any time. "I was told that if we got in a pinch that he could play," head coach Brad Stevens told reporters after the win. "We decided that that was not going to happen. With hamstrings, let's see how he feels tomorrow." Brown averaged 17.9 points against the Bucks (also 4.7 RPG), just a shade behind Horford's 18.1 PPG (and team-high 8.7 RPG). Three others also average in double digits in Rozier (17.6-4.3-6.7), Tatum (15.4 & 5.3) and Morris (13.3 & 4.9). The pick: This is the NBA's top rivalry in terms of series played. The teams meet for the 20th time in what has always been the Celtics but also been the Syracuse Nationals/Philadelphia Warriors/Sixers. The rivals last met in the playoffs in 2012, when Boston won a conference semifinals matchup in seven games.However, as noted above, that was then and this is now! The Celtics won three of four meetings during the regular season, including a matchup in London on Jan. 11. No many could have imagined at the start of the 2018 playoffs that Boston would have been a home dog against the 76ers in a Game 1 matchup at Boston. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James returned to Cleveland after a four-year 'mission' in Miami and has led the Cavs to three consecutive NBA Finals (won one and lost two). However, his three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers will host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday afternoon, trying to avoid a first-round exit. Cleveland went into Indiana on Friday with a chance to close out the series but got rocked 121-87. James was the only starter to score in double figures with 22 points, as the remaining four starters combined for a total of 22 points. The Cavs shot only 31.6% from three-point range (12 of 38) and adding insult to injury, made just 9 of 16 FTs (56.2%). Meanwhile, the Pacers played their most complete game of the series in Game 6, shooting 56.3 percent from the floor and forcing 15 turnovers. Oladipo led seven Pacers players in double figures, as Indiana shot 15-of-30 from three-point range. Indiana: Oladipo had lost his shooting touch in Games 3, 4 and 5, going a combined 12-of-50 (24.0%) from the floor but recorded a triple-double with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting, 13 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 6. He became the third Pacer to post a playoff triple double. Domantas Sabonis, the other key acquisition in the Paul George trade, had 19 points on 9-of-11 shooting and is averaging 20 points on 26-of-35 shooting (74.3%) over the last three games. Cleveland: Jeff Green (13) and Rodney Hood (12) came off the bench in Game 6 to join LBJ in double figures but overall, it was brutal game by the Cavs. Kevin Love managed just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting and is now averaging 11 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the series, after posting 17.6 points on 45.8 percent during the regular season. "He's a huge part of our success or our non-success," James told reporters of Love. "Obviously, we try to go to him, we want to go to him. Obviously, we can't make the shots for him. He has to step up and knock those down. Those things you can't control." Making matters worse is that no other Cavs player is averaging double figures for the series. The pick: The Cavs have been 'living on the edge' all season and now face this do-or-die game. James is 4-2 all time in Game 7s and more importantly, has never lost an opening round series (12-0). Meanwhile, the Pacers are 3-5 in Game 7s, including 2-5 on the road. Indiana is also trying to avoid being eliminated by a James team (Cavs, Heat) for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. "The pressure is on both teams," Indiana head coach Nate McMillan said. "The loser goes home. So, for us, we take it one game at a time and we prepare ourselves for that next game. The next game is on the road. We understand the conditions we're playing in, but to say they feel more pressure than us? No. The losers go home. So there's pressure on both teams." I think he's 'whistling past the graveyard.' We saw Milwaukee fail miserably on Saturday in Game 7 at Boston (just not ready for primetime) and I believe the same fate awaits the Pacers. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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04-27-18 | Jets +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were an 8-seed in the West last season but made an impressive Stanley Cup run that didn't end until Game 6 of the Finals! Nashville built off last year's playoff success and entered this year's playoffs as the team with the most points (117) of any NHL club during the regular season. The Winnipeg Jets entered the Stanley Cup playoffs as a legitimate championship contender, after putting together the greatest regular season in franchise history by going 52-20-10. The team's 114 points did fall three shy of that of the Central Division-winning Nashville Predators but the Jets accumulated more points than any other NHL team save the Preds! The two Central Division rivals combined for 231 points during fantastic regular seasons, setting up what is expected to be an entertaining Western Conference semifinal. The Nashville Predators will host the Winnipeg Jets in the series opener tonight, after finishing 3-1-1 against them in the regular season. Each team owns one victory on road ice and the two combined for 41 goals in those five games, a testament to the offensive firepower on both rosters considering both teams have Vezina Trophy finalists in Pekka Rinne of the Predators and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg: The Jets had four players finish with 60-plus points, including the NHL co-leader in assists (Blake Wheeler had 68) and the second-highest goal scorer in the league (Patrik Laine had 44). Winnipeg smothered Minnesota in the opening round with waves of offense, getting three points or more from seven players in the five games, led by four goals and an assist from center Mark Scheifele and a pair of goals from Laine along with defenseman Tyler Myers. Hellebuyck did not face tremendous pressure for large stretches of the series but even though he was pulled from Game 3 he still finished with a .924 save percentage and a 1.93 goals against average. After the Wild won Game 3 by a 6-2 score, Hellebuyck posted back-to-back shutout victories, 2-0 and 5-0. Nashville: The Predators finished the regular season with eight players recording 40 or more points, including a pair of defensemen (Roman Josi and P.K. Subban). Forsberg lead the team with 64 points and Arvidsson led with 26 goals. Nashville had to go six games before eliminating Colorado, doing so emphatically Sunday with a 5-0 decision that included Pekka Rinne's fourth career playoff shutout and three points for the first time in 81 postseason games for center Nick Bonino. One aspect Nashville hopes to improve on from its first-round victory over Colorado is its second line, as Fiala, center Kyle Turris and forward Craig Smith combined for just five points. Forward Austin Watson and center Colton Sissons were fantastic in the first round, combining for seven goals and 14 points, while Rinne shook off a rough performance in Game 3 to stop 140-of-154 shots on goal (.909 SP). The pick: As befits a matchup of the teams with the league's top point totals, there simply isn't much difference across the board. The Jets were second in the NHL in goals and the Predators were seventh. Nashville was second in the league in fewest goals allowed and Winnipeg was fifth. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Winnipeg a 6* play. |
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04-27-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucks won Game 6 at home last night to send the Boston/Milwaukee series to a Game 7, as the home team has each of the first six games (5-1 ATS) in that matchup. The Wizards will look to "repeat that script" tonight when the host the Toronto Raptors at the Verizon Center. Toronto's 108-98 win over the Wizards in Game 5 gave the home team a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS mark in this series . DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points and handed out five assists to lead the top-seeded Raptors in that critical Game 5 win, while Delon Wright chipped in 18 points in 26 minutes off the bench. The Wizards had a chance in Game 5 but were outscored 29-20 in the 4th quarter, as they shot 8 of 24 in the final 12 minutes. John Wall was 2 of 6 in the fourth, while backcourt mate Bradley Beal missed five of six shots in the final stanza. Toronto: Head coach Dwane Casey discovered something down the stretch in Game 5 with an odd grouping of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, center Jonas Valanciunas (who had yet to play in the fourth quarter this series) and Wright. DeRozan scored 30 points before the fourth quarter while Wright scored 11 of his 18 points in the fourth, Valanciunas totaled six points and seven rebounds, helping the Raptors control the glass by a 15-12 margin in a game where they were outrebounded 50-35. Besides the relatively new lineup, the Raptors also reverted to its style of emphasizing three-point shooting. Toronto made 11 of 25 three-pointers, after attempting just 18 (made seven) in Game 4. Washington: The Wizards won Games 3 and 4 at home to even this series, before the Raptors seized a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday's win in Toronto. However, are confident they can force a do-or-die Game 7 with the Raptors. "We love our chances," PG John Wall told reporters of the eighth-seeded Wizards' quest to stave off elimination at home. "We're very confident." Wall is averaging 26.6-5.8-12.2 in teh series and his fellow All Star backcourt partner, Bradley Beal, is averaging 21.4 PPG. Five others are contributing between 9.4 and 1.4 PPG in the series but Washington could sure one of that group to "step up" here in Game 6. Kelly Oubre, who is 3-of-16 from three-point range in the series, might gain a larger role if fellow forward Otto Porter Jr. is unable to go. Porter has been wrestling with a bone bruise in his left leg and will be reassessed Friday. Head coach Scott Brooks knows he needs more from Porter, who averaged 14.7 points this season but has been held to single digits three times in the series. "We need Otto to be more than a 9-10 point scorer for us to win this series," Brooks told reporters. The pick: Here's the bottom line. As noted, the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the series so far, but that's only part of the storyline. The Wizards come into this game having won their last eight playoff games in the nation's capital and have yet to lose to Toronto at home in a postseason game! Enough said. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics will be in Milwaukee for Game 6 of this first round series against the Bucks, a series in which the home team has won each of the first five games (4-1 ATS). The second-seeded Celtics took a 3-2 series lead with a 92-87 win at home Tuesday night, meaning the host Bucks face a do-or-die Game 6 tonight. Al Horford switched from power forward to center and led Boston with 22 points and 14 rebounds as the Celtics survived an old-fashioned defensive contest. "We needed to make an adjustment and do something," Horford told reporters of the lineup changes, which included the return from injury of guard Marcus Smart and a rare start for rookie forward Semi Ojeleye. "Coach (Brad Stevens) saw that and he went with his gut and that, and a combination of Marcus Smart, I think paid off for us tonight." The Bucks shot well over 50 percent from the floor in the previous three games before being held to 36.8 percent in Game 5, with Giannis Antetokounmpo being limited to just 10 shot attempts. Boston: Smart had been out since March 11 with a thumb injury but added an instant dose of defense and toughness that Boston lacked while allowing an average of 110 points in losing games 3 and 4. Smart only scored nine points in 25 minutes of work but was a force on the defensive end. Ojeleye had just five points in his 31 minutes was one of the main reason the "Greek Freak" was quieted. Boston was outplayed in Games 3 and 4 in Milwaukee but during the regular season was an impressive 27-13 SU on the road. Milwaukee: "It's on me. I had open shots, but they wasn't my shots," Antetokounmpo told the media. "I think my teammates did a great job finding me, but coming the next game, Game 6, I've got to be more aggressive and make more plays." Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 23 points but was just 9-of-21 from the floor after shooting 40-for-65 through the first four games of the series. Antetokounmpo is averaging in the series and Middleton. Interim Bucks coach Joe Prunty said his team needs a better all-around effort if it wants to keep its season alive for another day. "It's not just one guy, it's everyone we call on," Prunty said. "We need them to come in and play solid defense, we need guys to come in and knock down shots." The pick: A loss tonight by Milwaukee would not only end the Bucks' season but also mark the final game played at the Bradley Center, their home since 1988. The team is moving into a new facility located right next door next season. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 and it's also heard to ignore that they never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-276 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including this postseason. Will the Bucks make that 19-277? Maybe in Game 7, but not tonight! Lay the points and make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up:The Toronto Maple Leafs have faced series' deficits of 2-0 and 3-1 against the Boston Bruins but the Maple Leafs staved off elimination with a 4-3 win at Boston in Game 5, before prevailing 3-1 on Monday night. Toronto has not won a postseason series since 2004 but the Maple Leafs can end that a streak tonight when they visit the Boston Bruins in a winner-take-all Game 7 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. It appeared the Bruins would make it a short series after winning the opening two games by a combined 12-4 but the Bruins now find themselves in a Game 7. Toronto: Frederik Andersen entered the series with a 10-1-0 record against Boston, but he was pierced early and often before turning in superb performances in the past two outings, making 42 saves in Game 5 and turning aside 32 of 33 shots in Game 6. Mitch Marner is riding the momentum of a stellar series, delivering the tie-breaking score Monday to give him two goals and six assists during a five-game point streak. Leo Komarov is ready to return after sitting out four games but coach Mike Babcock will wait until Wednesday to make a decision on him. Boston: The Bruins insist they remain confident. “If anybody would have told us at the start of the year that we’d be going into a Game 7 in the first round at home, we would have taken it," Boston forward Brad Marchand said. "Whatever has happened in the last six games doesn’t mean anything. ... It’s going to be a challenge. They’re a great team and they’ve played really well in this series. It’s gonna be fun and we’re looking forward to it.” Boston's top line of Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak amassed a staggering 20 points in the first two games of the series, but the unit has been held off the scoresheet in each of the three losses while posting a minus-16 in those games. The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in OT. Now, five years later, Toronto was in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. However, the Maple Leafs needed to only look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before winning Games 5 and 6 only to become the first team in history to cough up a three-goal third-period lead in Game 7 ( blew a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds!). This series has been eerily reminiscent of that 2013 meeting. Why should it end differently than five years ago? After converting on 5 of 10 power plays in the first two games, Boston is 1-for-9 on the power play over the past four games. What's more, while Toronto's Andersen has been 'lights out' the last two games, note that Boston goalie ruins G Tuukka Rask is 5-12 in elimination games.I took the Maple Leafs in Game 5 and in Game 6, saying " this series is headed back to Boston for a Game 7." Why should I back off here? I will slightly though, by taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Toronto a 6* play. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics 'held serve' at Boston in Games 1 and 2, with the Bucks' returning the favor in Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee. The two teams will both battle history Tuesday night at TD Garden in Game 5. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 but have never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-274 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including the Portland Trail Blazers going out in four straight against the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2018 playoffs (the Spurs, T-wolves and Bucks can add to that sorry history by failing to win their respective series this postseason). Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo is enjoying his time in the spotlight and his reputation for being a clutch player, which was evidenced when he tipped in the winning basket with 5.1 seconds left in Game 4 to give the Bucks a series-tying 104-102 victory. Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists through four games and small forward Khris Middleton has been the second half of Milwaukee's "dynamic duo," averaging 25.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Jabari Parker, the 2014 draft's overall No. 2 pick, came up big in the back-to-back victories by averaging 16.5 points, six rebounds, two blocked shots and 1.5 steals, after averaging one point and three rebounds with no blocks or steals in the first two games. The Bucks set a franchise record with 14 blocks in Game 4, with 21-year-old backup C Thon Maker swatting away five shots for the second straight game. Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown continues to excel while picking up the scoring slack in Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 34 points, eight rebounds and three steals in Game 4, his second 30-point effort of the series (he's averaging a team-high 23.8 points in the series). Point guard Terry Rozier scored 23 points in each of Boston's two home wins came back to earth by averaging 9.5 points on 5-of-19 shooting in the two losses in Milwaukee. Marcus Smart (thumb) is eyeing a return for Game 6 if he gets cleared for contact. Boston returns home after shooting 41.4% and 40.0% in the two losses in Milwaukee. The pick: Is it really as simple as coming home for Boston to regain its mojo? Can the Bucks reverse their awful postseason history while in the process, end Boston's perfect record of going 35-0 in series in which the Celtics have gone up 2-0? The winner of this game can't take the series tonight but the winner will put itself in prime to position to win. Antetokounmpo is the series' best player plus I believe Milwaukee is the better team with Irving sidelined for Boston. Make the Bucks an 8* play. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 during teh regular season and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Meanwhile, Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves failed to get their offense going in tteh first two games of this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needed to get more involved, as he had totaled just 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004 gave the Timberwolves all the juice they needed to win Game 3 and get back into their first-round Western Conference series against the top-seeded Rockets. Minnesota shot 50 percent from the floor, 55.6 percent from three-point range (15 of 27) and handed out 29 assists against seven turnovers in Game 3 while rolling to a 121-105 win. Karl-Anthony Towns enjoyed his best game of the series with 18 points and 16 rebounds plus the team's best player, Jimmy Butler, scored 28 points after averaging 12.0 in the first two games. Harden scored 29 points in Game 3 to bounce back from that 2-of-18 shooting effort in Game 2 but the Rockets head to Game 4 shooting just 31.5% from three-point range. Houston: Yes, Harden bounced back in Game 3 but Eric Gordon continued to struggle. Gordon averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, is averaging just 10.3 PPG in the postseason on 28.2 percent shooting and is 6-of-26 from 3-point range (26.1%). The Rockets have noted that they now need to make an adjustment. Houston wants to get back to its defensive approach and limit Minnesota as it did in the first two games of the series. The Timberwolves averaged 91.5 points per game in the first two games and shot just 38.8 percent from the floor in Game 2. "We knew that was going to be a lot more comfortable coming home," Paul said. "They make a lot more 3s tonight, 15 for 27, and we got to be better defensively. We were just opening up the lane and letting Teague drive and all the other guys, so we know we got to be better." Minnesota: Butler and Towns finally came through but again, the team shot 50 percent, including 15 of 27 on threes. Starting PG Teague also had his best effort of the series in Game 3, scoring 23 points and handing out eight assists. Teague is averaging 15.3 PPG in the series and his backup, Derrick Rose, is averaging 14.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting after averaging a modest 5.8 PPG in nine games with Minnesota in nine games at the end of the regular season. The pick: Only the Warriors scored more points during the regular season than the Rockets' 112.4 PPG. However, Houston has scored 104, 102 and 105 points in the first three games of this series (that's just 103.7 PPG, almost 10 point less than the team's regular season average). Towns not only got more involved on the offensive end (his lack of shots had been a topic all series), as he engaged defenders down low. At the other end of the court, the Timberwolves' defensive effort became contagious team-wide with power forward Taj Gibson defending James Harden one-on-one, resulting in a poor shot attempt. Minnesota has been able to harass Houston into poor shooting from behind the arc and if that continues, this series will be tied at two apiece. That's my bet. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-22-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors struggled down the stretch of the regular season due to injuries, losing 10 of their final 17 games. However, Golden State got a break in drawing the Kawhi Leonard-less Spurs in the first round. The Warriors have won and covered each of the first three games of this best-of-seven series and on Sunday, can sweep the San Antonio Spurs out of the postseason for the second straight year. The Warriors knocked the Spurs out in the Western Conference finals last spring and are trying to do the same two rounds earlier this time around Sunday afternoon at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The teams could not have had a more contrasting series over the first three games, as for everything the Spurs have done wrong, Golden State has done right. It's been a totally dominating performance so far for the defending NBA champions. Golden State: The Warriors are without Stephen Curry (he is out rehabbing a knee injury) plus they did see Kevin Durant and Shaun Livingston exit late in Game 3 after rolling ankles, although neither injury is considered serious. "We want to not come back, limit our road travel and expand our time to rest so we can get our best guys healthy, like Steph (Curry), KD and Shaun," shooting guard Klay Thompson told reporters. "That’s our motivation." The Warriors have limited San Antonio to an average of 96.7 points in the series and the defensive effort of All-Star forward Draymond Green is the key. "He's been fantastic, defensively," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Green. "He’s been all over the place. This is a team that you have to disrupt. They're excellent with their execution ... and Draymond is as good as anybody I’ve ever seen in terms of recognizing a play and blowing it up." Meanwhile, KD (27.3 PPG) and Thompson (25.7 PPG on 63.3% shooting, including 65% from beyond the arc), are handling the offensive end of the court. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge is being asked to carry the team in the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard, who is away from the team while rehabbing a quad injury (does anyone really know what's up?). Aldridge turned in his second straight double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3. Veteran PG Tony Parker came off the bench and enjoyed his best game of the series with 16 points in 17 minutes on Thursday, while fellow PG Patty Mills is stepping up as well, averaging 17.5 points in the last two games after scoring just five points in Game 1. The pick: "Our guys focused in and we came in and we played," said Aldridge after Game 3. "It's been the same thing. We just aren't making shots that are there" He's right about that, as the Spurs are shooting a woeful 24.1% on threes through the first three games. However, this is a prideful bunch and I expect a great effort from the Spurs in this one. Upset alert? Just maybe but let's take the points and make San Antonio an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 seed when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3, where the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum of the series with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto had a chance to level the best-of-seven series in Game 4 on Thursday night but come to Boston for Saturday's Game 5 lamenting a missed opportunity in Thursday's 3-1 setback, despite the Bruins playing without the team's top-line center, Patrice Bergeron (he was a late-scratch with an upper body injury). Toronto: The Maple Leafs will receive a boost with the return of center Nazem Kadri, a 32-goal scorer during the regular season who received a three-game suspension for a dangerous hit on Boston's Tommy Wingels in the series opener. Kadri's return will mean a demotion for Tomas Plekanec, who scored the team's only goal Thursday (but it was his first since he was acquired from Montreal). Auston Matthews had 63 points in 62 regular season games this year but has just one goal in teh series, being held off the scoresheet in three of the four games. The team's leading goal score, van Riensdyk (36), has a modest two goals in the series, his only points. Boston: Bergeron, who is up for his fifth Selke Trophy as the game's best defensive forward, collected five assists in the first two games but with Riley Nash taking his place, Brad Marchand scored a goal and David Pastrnak continued his brilliant play with two assists to bump his series point total up to 11. Bergeron skated on his own Friday, which was called a "positive" by head coach Bruce Cassidy, who said he will make a decision on the four-time Selke Trophy winner's status at Saturday's morning skate. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been overshadowed by the offensive exploits through much of the series but he answered the call in Game 4 by turning aside 31 of 32 shots in what Marchand termed a "phenomenal game. He’s one of the best goalies in the world and he gives us an opportunity to win every night.” The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in overtime. Five years later, Toronto is in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. The Maple Leafs can look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before blowing a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of Game 7! Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves have failed to get their offense going in this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needs to get more involved, as he's totaled 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Houston: The Rockets' supporting cast stepped up to help Harden on Wednesday, with Gerald Green coming off the bench for 21 points and Trevor Ariza adding 15. Fellow All Star Chris Paul added 27 points and eight assists in Game 2, after a so-so Game 1 in which he shot just 5 of 14 with 14 points. All-in-all, the Rockets only shot 36.5 percent from the floor in Game 2 and James Harden was limited to 12 points, yet Houston won by 20 after squeaking by with a three-point win in Game 1. "We haven't played very well so far," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told the Houston Chronicle. "It'll be crazy up there. They haven't been in the playoffs for a long time. It will be a very loud crowd. We have to do our part, play defense and take the crowd out of it. We have to be ready for all they got. Whatever they have left, we're going to get it full throttle right when we get on the floor to start the game." Minnesota: The T-wolves know all about "not playing well!" Not only has Towns been a "no-show" but the team's best all-around player, Jimmy Butler, has averaged 12.0 PPG on 41.2% shooting (averaged 22.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting in the regular season). Minnesota was actually the aggressor early in Game 2, leading after the first quarter. However, the T-wolves shot 38.8 percent from the floor for teh game. Swingman Andrew Wiggins scored 13 poinst and was one of just three players on the team to score in double figures (Butler had 11 and Nemanja Bjelica scored a team-high 16 points, after going scoreless in Game 1). The pick: Minnesota remains confident despite being in an 0-2 hole and is excited to play the franchise's first home playoff game since Game 5 of the Western Conference finals in 2004. "It feels good," Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins told reporters after Friday's practice. "Houston took care of business up there and now we’ve got to do the same up here. I know the fans will be excited, the atmosphere will be crazy and the whole team, we're confident. We're ready." Minnesota was one of the league's best teams at home with a 30-11 record this year and a loss here, all but ends the series. Minnesota can draw confidence from the fact that the Rockets are shooting only 29.2 percent from three-point range in the series. The home dog 'barks' in this one. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-20-18 | Raptors +2 v. Wizards | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Raptors will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round Eastern Conference series when they visit the Washington Wizards on Friday. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. "We need a better start," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there." Toronto: DeRozan was the star in Game 2 plus Valanciunas outplayed his counterparts on Washington up front but PG Lowry also added a double-double with 13 points and 12 assists. Toronto was the East's highest scoring team during the regular season (111.7 PPG) and appears comfortable being the hunted after winning the East with a franchise-high 59 wins (only the Rockets won more games this season). Washington: PG John Wall averaged 26.0 & 12.0 APG in the first two games but fellow guard Bradley Beal (also an All Star) is off to a slow start offensively in the series. He was held to nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 2 and returns home averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting 11 of 28 (39.3%) in two games. A bright spot for the Wizards was reserve Mike Scott, who had 20 points off the bench and was on the floor when Washington rallied in Game 2. Head coach Scott Brooks may opt to go with the 6-foot-8 Scott in place of 6-11 Marcin Gortat, who has struggled at both ends thus far. With the Wizards down 0-2, he has little to lose. The pick: Clearly, the Wizards face a "must win" in this contest but one wonders if Washington can match Toronto's overall firepower or the team's depth (see the contributions of Miles and Wright, above). However, as noted above, the Raptors seem comfortable playing the role of the "Big Dog!" Back in 2015, the No. 5 Wizards -- led by veteran Paul Pierce -- pulled off a what was a mild upset of the No. 4 Raptors, closing out the series with a 31-point rout. Not yet ready to predict a Toronto sweep but I will make the Raptors a 10* play here in Game 3. |
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04-20-18 | Cavs +1 v. Pacers | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers scored just 80 points in a Game 1 loss to the Pacers and needed LeBron James to come out aggressive in Game 2. LBJ did just that, scoring the team's first 16 points on his way to a 46-point effort. However, the Cavs barely hung on in a 100-97 Game 2 win. The series is now tied at one apiece (although the Pacers are 2-0 ATS), as the venue switches to Indiana. The Pacers dominated the first quarter en route to a Game 1 victory and remain confident heading home despite the tight loss in Game 2. "We really wanted to go home 2-0 but we got one on the road," Indiana center Myles Turner told reporters. "We did our jobs. I can't wait to be back in front of the Indy fans. I hope these guys are ready, I know they are." Cleveland: The Cavs were embarrassed in Game 1 and head coach Tyronn Lue decided to make a lineup change for Game 2. He inserted veterans Kyle Korver and JR Smith into the starting lineup in place of Jeff Green and Rodney Hood. Korver went 4-of-8 from three-point range to help space the floor. Smith did little offensively (just five points) but after shooting 38.5% as team (including 8 of 34 on threes), the Cavs connected on 50.7% of their shots, making 11 of 28 three pointers. Lue said he plans to stick with his Game 2 lineup in Game 3 and praising the job Smith did on Victor Oladipo, the Pacers leading scorer, and the fact Korver took two charges from Oladipo. Indiana: Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 32 points in Game 1 but was limited to 22 in Game 2, although he did make 9-of-18 shots.Oladipo is averaging 27.0-4.5-5.0 in the first two games with Turner adding 17.0 & 6.5. The Pacers have shown excellent depth with eight players getting 17-minutes plus, although all five starters are averaging 32-plus minutes. The Pacers shot 52.6 percent from the floor in Game 2 but struggled to a 6-of-22 (27.3%) effort from three-point range, while committing 17 turnovers. The pick; I realize the Cavs have been an awful defensive team for most of the season but that hasn't been the team's problem in this series. After all, the Pacers have scored 98 and 97 points in the first two games. The Cavs finished fifth during the regular season in both scoring (110.9 PPG) and FG percentage (47.6%) and in this pivotal Game 3, I expect the Cavs to bring their "A game." After all, LBJ has never played on a team that has lost a first round series. Why start now, when he's coming off arguably, his best regular season ever? Make the Cavs an 8* play. |
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04-19-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Pelicans are in the playoffs for just the second time in Anthony Davis' six-year career. His first visit came back in 2015 when the Warriors swept them in an opening round series, despite Davis averaging 31.5 & 11.0. Davis' second time around in the postseason has so far, gone much better. The Pelicans have won the first two games of the first round series with the Trail Blazers in Portland. Davis has averaged 28.5 & 13.5 in the first two games while combo guard Jrue Holiday and veteran PG Rajan Rondo have risen to the challenge, as well. Portland entered the series having won 21 of their last 24 home games but now find themselves in an 0-2 'hole.' Star PG Damian Lillard (26.9 PPG in the regular season) has been unable to get untracked in the first two games, averaging 17.5 PPG while shooting just 31.7 percent. Head coach Terry Stotts said his Portland squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games." Portland: "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters afterr the Game 2 loss. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." McCollum (20.5) has been the team's leading scorer but starting center Jusuf Nurkic (in the regular season) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday due to suffering a leg bruise in the third quarter. Nurkic needs to be healthy, as he's the only consistent scorer outside of Lillard and McCollum. New Orleans: Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and is averaging 27.0-5.0-5.5 in the team's two wins. As for PG Rondo, he is reminding all why he's earned the tag "Playoff Rondo." He has once again elevated his play, averaging 11.0-9.0-13.0. Head coach Alvin Gentry appreciates the calmness he provides to younger less-experienced players. Also, let's not forget the contributions of 6-10 forward Mirotic, who has averaged 16.5 & 9.5 to give A.D. some 'cover' up front. The pick: The Blazers are known for being a strong home team but Portland did go 21-20 SU on the road during the regular season. If there is ever a "must win" for a team in a series other than when one is facing elimination with a loss, it's Game 3 of a series in which a team is down 0-2. I'm a big fan of Lillard and I believe he keeps his team 'alive' in this series by leading them to a Game 3 win. Make Portland a 10* play. |
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04-18-18 | Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: More than a few teams made significant off-season moves last summer in the hope of competing with the Warriors but clearly, Houston turned out to be the one team which accomplished it. "We've enjoyed the year. It's been a great year," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "Now it's time for the second phase of it. I think everybody's anxious to get started." The Rockets finished an NBA-best 65-17 in the regular season but while they won Game 1 of the opening round series with the Minnesota T-wolves 104-101, it was no "walk in the park." James Harden, the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP award (30.4-5.4-8.8 assists) "came to the rescue," scoring 44 points on 15-of-26 shooting, including seven straight points during a decisive run in the fourth quarter (he also added eight assists). Minnesota: The good news was that Minnesota was able to harass Houston into 10-for-37 shooting from behind the arc but they were not able to contain Harden. Jimmy Butler drew the primary assignment on Harden and said, "I've got to do my job more effectively. What do you want: a free throw, a three-pointer, a layup? He got whatever he wanted in that game and I've got to be better at taking it away." Minnesota must also better utilize the talents of Karl-Anthony Towns on offense. Towns was second on the team in scoring during the regular season, averaging 21.3 points while attempting 14.3 shots per game. In the series opener, he scored only eight points on nine shots and was unable to take advantage of the situation when he occasionally worked against smaller defenders in the Rockets' switch-oriented defense. Houston: Harden did some offensive help in Game 1 from center Clint Capela, who collected 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting and 12 rebounds. However, Paul made just 5 of 14 shots (1 of 6 on threes) and added a modest four assists. Once again, the Rockets were able to shake off their poor shooting and were able to thrive in the paint. Houston outpaced the bigger Timberwolves 54-44 on paint points with Harden feasting both on driving layups and pinpoint passes to center Clint Capela. The pick: Houston took all four meetings in the regular season against Minnesota with the Rockets also going 4-0 ATS. However, I took the T-wolves in Game 1 and easily covered. That ATS win came despite poor games by both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler, the team's top-two players.I'm going right back to the well again here in Game 2. Make Minnesota a 10* pick. |
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04-15-18 | Wolves +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set: The Minnesota Timberwolves needed to win an OT contest at home vs. the Nuggets in the team's 82nd game of the regular season to end the NBA's longest playoff drought. Minnesota outlasted the Nuggets 112-106 on Wednesday, with that victory allowing the T-wolves to enter the postseason for the first time since 2004.However, there is no rest for the weary, as Minnesota draws the Houston Rockets, who completed the regular season with NBA-best record of 65-17, seven games better than the defending champion Warriors. Houston took all four meetings in the regular season against Minnesota with the Rockets also going 4-0 ATS. Minnesota: The T-wolves have been in "playoff mode" for some time and needed to win their last three regular-season games to stay alive and finally clinch a spot in the postseason. All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler returned for the three wins and lead the way on Wednesday, scoring 31 points. Minnesota hovered around the third or fourth spot in the West for much of the season before falling off when Butler went down with a knee injury. Butler's return sparked the team down the stretch. Butler is the team's best defender, while leading the team ins scoring at 22:2 PPG (he adds 5.3 RPG & 4.9 APG). Minnesota's starting-five is impressive, with Butler being joined by center Towns (21.3 & 12.3), SF Wiggins (17.7 & 4.4), PG Teague (14.2 & 7.0 APG) and PF Gibson (12.2 & 7.1). Houston: more than a few teams made significant off-season mobves in teh hopes of competing with teh Warriors but clearly, Houston turned out to be the one team which accomplished it. "We've enjoyed the year. It's been a great year," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "Now it's time for the second phase of it. I think everybody's anxious to get started." Houston is led by James Harden, who is the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP award this season after leading the league in scoring at an average of 30.4 points, while grabbing 5.4 rebounds and adding 8.8 assists. The difference for the team this time around in the playoffs is that Harden has another future Hall of Famer in the backcourt with the addition of PG Chris Paul (18.6-5.4-7.9)., who is in awe of his teammate. Center Clint Capela also produced a "career season, " averaging 13.9 & 10.8., while leading the league in field goal percentage (65.2%). The Rockets finished the regular season second in the NBA by averaging 112.4 PPG (guess which team was 1st?). The pick: The Rockets blitzed the T-wolves four times during the regular season, claiming the first three meetings by 18 points each and led by 25 in a 129-120 road victory March 18. Houston, the most prolific three-point shooting team in the league by volume, hit 69 of 159 threes in those four games for a robust 43.4 percent. Considering that the Timberwolves finished 23rd in defensive efficiency during the regular season, any expectation that they might lock down the Rockets this series is foolhardy. Relying on Towns (he led the NBA with 68 double-doubles), who paced the team in points (1,743), rebounds (1,012), blocks (115) and three-pointers (120), plus Butler in the post, Minnesota might unlock a pace that could prevent Houston from its usually lethal combo of layups and open threes. Matching the Rockets offensively might be as sound a strategy as anything for the Timberwolves . If it's posible, Game 1 would be the perfect opportunity. I'm in! Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-15-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 98-80 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers finished the regular season a disappointing 50-32. They enter the playoffs as the East's No. 4 seed but will be in search of earning their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals (LBJ is looking for an 8th consecutive visit!). The Cavaliers will have homecourt advantage in the first round but after that, the Cavs would need some upsets to have homecourt advantage in any future series. In contrast to Cleveland, Indiana was a surprising contender for homecourt in the East behind All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, who led the team in averaging 21.3 PPG. "We've just got to go out there and play at a high level," Oladipo told reporters. "It's not going to be easy, but it ain't been easy all year for us. We've got to go out there with that mentality and try to win it. That's what we're trying to do. We're trying to go make it close and have fun, we're trying to win." Indiana did win three of the four meetings this season but all four came before Cleveland remade its roster at the trade deadline. Indiana: Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis were the key players the Pacers received from the Thunder in the Paul George deal. Oladipo has been terrific and in about 24 1/2 minutes per game, Sabonis has averaged 11.6 & 7.7. Indiana was swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Cavaliers last spring (with George!) but the Pacers are a different (better?) team this time around thanks to the presence of Oladipo and Sabonis, plus four other Pacers who average in double digits with Stephenson (9.2 & 5.2) and Joseph (7.9) also being regular contributors. Oladipo is now Indiana's best player plus Sabonis has teamed with fellow center Turner (12.7 & 6.4) to give the Pacers an excellent center combo. Collison is Indiana's new PG and he averaged 12.4 points and 5.4 assists, while leading the NBA with a 46.8 three-point field-goal percentage. Cleveland: The Cavs traded Kyrie Irving last summer for Isaiah Thomas, Ante Zizic, Jae Crowder, and two draft picks. The Cavs also signed Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade. Then, on Feb. 8, Thomas, Crowder, Rose, and Wade (and Channing Frye and Iman Shumpert) were all traded away for George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson. With a revamped roster, the Cavs battled through some inconsistency with the new rotations and injured players until putting everything together and finishing the regular season with wins in 11 of the last 14 games. Can the team's new dynamic work in the playoffs? Cleveland's advantage over every other team in the East is the presence of LBJ, who played in all 82 regular-season games for the first time in his career. James averaged career highs in rebounds (8.6) and assists (9.1) while adding 27.5 points on 54.2 percent shooting. The pick: I agree the Cavs look vulnerable and I also agree that the Pacers are better this season, than last. However, look at what LBJ-led teams have done in the first round of the NBA playoffs. They have won 21 games in a row in the opening round (an NBA record) and have never lost a first-round series (12-0), nor even a Game 1 of any first round. The last time his team lost any game in the first round was back May 6, 2012, when the Miami Heat lost by two to the New York Knicks in Game 4. Make the Cavs an 8* play. |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-14-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -185 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins were the best team in hockey for a long stretch of the season but with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference there for the taking at home last Sunday against the Panthers, Boston lost 4-2. In fact, the Bruins lost four of their final five games, including that season-ending loss to Florida. However, they showed no carry-over effects from their late-season slump in their playoff opener. The Bruins turned in a dominating performance (40 shots on goal) in a 5-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday. Toronto's chances of earning a split in Boston and climbing back into the series received a jarring setback when 32-goal scorer Nazem Kadri was handed a three-game suspension Friday for a dangerous hit on Bruins forward Tommy Wingels in the third period. The 49-26-7 Toronto Maple Leafs finished 3rd in Atlantic, led by an offense which averaged 3.29 GPG (4th). Toronto: Head coach Mike Babcock shuffled three of his four lines at Friday's practice, anticipating the suspension of Kadri. Former overall No. 1 pick Auston Matthews missed 20 games to injury in his second season but still finished second on the team with 34 goals (points) and showed no rust in his return from a month-long absence, collecting at least one point in his final nine games. However, he, along with his teammates, were quiet in Game 1. Kadri was expected to be a big key for Toronto and his absence will hurt. Frederik Andersen is a quality goalie and went 38-21-5 during the regular season (2.81 GAA & .918 SP). However, he was peppered with 40 shots and allowed five goals in Game 1 (.875 SP). Boston: The Bruins were clearly slumping at the wrong time but they were superb in Game 1. After all, they still finished with 112 points, won at least four straight on five different occasions and amassed an 18-game point streak. Boston's No. 1 line has set the tone all season and little changed in Game 1 as David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron combined for six points, with Pastrnak scoring once and setting up a pair of goals. Bergeron, Brad Marchand (team-high 85 points) and David Pastrnak (team-high 35 goals) each scored at least 30 goals aduring the regular season. Former Vezina Trophy winner Tuukka Rask put together point streaks of 21 (19-0-2) and 11 games (10-0-1) but entered the playoffs having lost his last three starts, including that very important game last Sunday to Florida on home ice. He was sure fine in Game 1, stopping 26 of 27 shots (.963 SP). The pick: I'm not ready to bury the Maple Leafs just yet. Frederick Andersen entered the season a perfect 9-0-0 against Boston and won two of three matchups this season, surrendering a combined eight goals.He was far from at his best in Game 1 but it was hardly all his fault. I'm going to again take the 1 1/2 goals (I did in Game 1, as well) with Toronto and make them an 8* play. |
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04-12-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -208 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49-26-7 Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd in Atlantic) will open their seven-game first round series with the 50-20-12 Boston Bruins (2nd in the Atlantic) Thursday night at the TD Garden. The high-scoring Maple Leafs (3.29 GPG ranks 4th), will present a tough test for Boston, as they won three of four against Bruins this season and pushed top-seeded Washington to six games a year ago. "We're just not happy to be here," Toronto coach Mike Babcock said. "The guys got a real belief in the room. They've earned the right, because of the way the season's gone, to feel like that. So, I think that's a little bit different feeling than we had at this time (last year)." Boston was the best team in hockey for a long stretch of the season but with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference there for the taking at home last Sunday against the Panthers, Boston lost 4-2. In fact, the Bruins lost four of their final five games, including that season-ending loss to Florida. Toronto: Former overall No. 1 pick Auston Matthews missed 20 games to injury in his second season but still finished second on the team with 34 goals (points) and showed no rust in his return from a month-long absence, collecting at least one point in his final nine games. A big key for Toronto could be the No. 2 line centered by Nazem Kadri, who matched a career best with 32 goals and is joined by veteran Patrick Marleau (27 goals) and second-year forward Mitch Marner, the team's leading scorer with 69 points. Frederik Andersen is a quality goalie and went 38-21-5 during the regular season (2.81 GAA & .918 SP). Boston: The Bruins clearly slumped at the wrong time in the season's final five games but they still finished with 112 points, won at least four straight on five different occasions and amassed an 18-game point streak. The Bruins have been one of the NHL's better defensive teams (2.57 GPG allowed ranks 4th) but they alos own more than enough offensive firepower. The No. 1 line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand (team-high 85 points) and David Pastrnak (team-high 35 goals) saw each score at least 30 goals and were the team's top three point producers. Forward Rick Nash, acquired in a blockbuster trade with the New York Rangers, practiced for the last two days after missing the final 12 games due to a concussion and is expected back in the lineup. Former Vezina Trophy winner Tuukka Rask put together point streaks of 21 (19-0-2) and 11 games (10-0-1) but enters having lost his last three starts, including that very important game last Sunday to Florida on home ice. The pick: Speaking of home ice, the Bruins went an impressive 28-8-5 at home this season, averaging 3.59 GPG. However, Frederik Toronto's Frederik Andersen entered the season a perfect 9-0-0 against Boston and won two of three matchups this season, surrendering a combined eight goals. Meanwhile, not only has Rask stumbled in his last three starts (allowing 11 goals) but he has just one win in his last six starts against the Maple Leafs the last two seasons. Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Toronto a 6* play. |
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04-10-18 | Warriors +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 79-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It's been a trying season for the Golden State Warriors but at 58-23, the Warriors have long ago clinched the West's No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz punched their ticket to the postseason with a win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday but are still waiting for the seedings to shake themselves out. The Jazz will try to lock up homecourt advantage in the first round when they host the Warriors on Tuesday. Utah finishes up at No. 3 seed Portland on Wednesday and is coming into the postseason as hot as any team in the NBA after going 28-5 over its last 33 games to surge from nine games under .500 to the top half of the West playoff bracket. As noted, the Warriors are locked into the No. 2 spot and priority No. 1 has to be getting themselves healthy and back in rhythm before heading to the postseason. Golden State snapped a two-game slide with a 117-100 win at Phoenix on Sunday but come on, it was the Suns! Utah: The Jazz have began their surge shortly after center Rudy Gobert returned from a knee injury. He is averaging 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds over the last 33 games. Gobert is getting plenty of help from rookie guard Donovan Mitchell, who led the way in the clinching win with 28 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. The Louisville product is averaging 20.5-3.7-3.7 on the season. The pick: The Warriors have suffered two straight lopsided losses to Utah and they fell 129-99 to the Jazz in their other visit to Salt Lake City back on Jan. 27. However, don't be too sure the Warriors will 'mail it in,' here. If Golden State wins, it would finish the season at 59-23 and if the Raptors were to lose Wednesday night in Miami, those teams would finish with the exact same record. However, because the Warriors won both regular season meetings, Golden State would earn the homecourt edge in a possible Finals' showdown. Anyone think that Golden State doesn't believe it is more than capable of getting past the Rockets in the West? Maybe I'm 'all wet' here but I'm taking the points and making Golden St a 10* play. |
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04-10-18 | 76ers v. Hawks +10 | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA's regular season ends Wednesday and its hottest team, the 50-30 Philadelphia 76ers ,will play tonight in Atlanta and then wrap up their season with a home game against the Bucks. The 76ers will go for their franchise-record 15th consecutive win when they visit the 24-57 Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday in their final road game of the regular season. Philadelphia, which won just 10 games only two seasons ago, clinched homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs with a 109-97 win over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. The Sixers can also clinch the No. 3 spot with wins in their last two games. In stark contrast, The Hawks are fighting to finish above the Orlando Magic (also 24-57) and out of the East basement. The Magic's final game is a home contest Wednesday night against the Washington Wizards. Philadelphia: It's been more than just a little surprising that the 76ers have continued to thrive despite being without All-Star center Joel Embiid (22.9 & 11.0). He was sidelined with an orbital fracture back on March 28 but Philly has won all six games that he's sat out and he is not expected to play in the final two games of the regular season. Embiid's absence is allowing rookie PG Ben Simmons to step into the starring rol, and he is averaging 14.7 points on 61.1 percent shooting, 10.9 assists and 10.1 rebounds during the winning streak. Simmons is trying to hold off Utah's Donovan Mitchell for the NBA's Rookie of the Year Award. Simmons is third on the team in scoring at 16.0 PPG, while adding 8.1 RPG and APG. SG Redick checks in with 17.0 PPG, PF Saric at 14.7 & 6.8 and SF Covington at 12.8 & 5.4. Additions like Belinelli (13.3 PPG in 26 games) and Ilysova (10.5 & 6.8 in 21 games) have been huge plus last year's overall No. 1 pick (Fultz) has averaged 7.4 & 4.1 APG in his eight games back on the court. Atlanta: The Hawks have been checking out current players with an eye towards the future. Small forward Taurean Prince has made strides all season long and is off a 33-point effort while adding eight rebounds and five assists in Sunday's 112-106 win at Boston. Prince has scored 20 or more points in each of the last three games and 10 of the last 15 games (he's averaging 14.8 & 4.8 on the season). Atlanta bested Boston, despite being without injured starters Dennis Schroder (19.4 & 6.2 APG) and Kent Bazemore (12.9). The pick: The bottom line is, the Hawks have continued to play hard for head coach Mike Budenholzer. The Hawks have won two straight for only the second time this season and three of their last five. The 76ers have won two previous meetings with the Hawks (each one by exactly 10 points) but note Phily is 21-19 SU on the road, averaging 107.7 PPG and allowing 107.0. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been outscored by a modest four points per game at home this season. Take the home dog and make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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04-09-18 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
The-set-up: The 45-35 Denver Nuggets are tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference but currently, would lose a tiebreaker and miss out on the postseason with the way things stand now. However, the Nuggets can make it easy on themselves by winning their final two regular season games, starting with the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday. Portland: The Blazers are 0-3 on their current four-game road trip, losing losing in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. "One gives us home court for sure, and if you win these last two -- 50 wins and the three seed. It is getting tight because we have things we can still get done, but for us it’s more about how we’re playing," said star guard Damian Lillard. He has his match right and scored 33 points in the latest setback in San Antonio, after sitting out at Houston on Thursday to rest an ankle injury. Lillard (26.8-4.5-6.6) and McCollum (21.5) have carried the Blazers all season, although center Jusuf Nurkic (14.3 & 8.8) continues to be a key component, recording a double-double in each of the last three games. Denver: SG Gary Harris (17.7) has missed the last 11 games with a knee injury but is coming close to a return. However, Tthe Nuggets are playing well without him, behind center Jokic (18.3 & 10.6), PF Millsap (15.0 & 6.4), guard Murray (16.7) and swingman Barton (15.5-5.0-4.1). Barton led the way with 31 points on 11-of-15 shooting in Saturday's win and is stepping up down the stretch. He is averaging 20 points on 51.4 percent shooting, seven rebounds and 4.6 assists during the five-game winning streak. The pick: The game has big meaning for both teams, as the Blazers are trying to hold off the Utah Jazz to stay in the third spot, but their postseason seed will likely be determined when they host the Jazz on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are on a roll and with two more wins, will be in the postseason. I won't step in front of Denver's current streak with a Portland team wrapping up its fourth road game in seven nights. Make Denver a 10* play. |
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04-08-18 | Mavs +13.5 v. 76ers | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers held off the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday 132-130, moving one step closer to clinching the East's No. 3 seed (76ers are 49-30, a half-game up on the Cavs). Philadelphia nearly squandered a 30-point lead but held on Friday night to run their winning streak to 13 straight, the longest for the franchise since the 1984-85 team also won 13 in a row. The 76ers need one more win to clinch their first 50-win season since the 2000-01 squad led by Allen Iverson won 56 games and reached the NBA Finals. As for Dallas, after reaching the playoffs 15 times in a 16-year run (from 2001-16), the Mavs went just 33-49 last season and now get set to play their final road game of the current season with an even worse record, sitting at 24-56. Dallas has dropped he first two of the team's three-game trip at Orlando and Detroit, falling to 9-31 on the road this season. Dallas: The Mavs have been competitive on this trip, with a five-point loss to the Magic and an overtime setback at the Pistons. The team's young players are seeing extra "PT" and are making the most of their expanded minutes. Rookie PF Johnathan Motley is getting an opportunity to start with future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki (ankle) done for the season and followed up 14 points in 41 minutes on Wednesday with his first career double-double with season highs of 26 points and 12 rebounds on Friday. J.J. Barea (11.6 & 6.3 APG) has also been shut down for the season and even small forward Dorian Finney-Smith has seen some action as of late. He was undrafted last year but signed with the Mavs and played in 81 games last season (4.3 & 3.4). He has been hurt for most of this year but he had 14 & 6 against the Magic and 15 & 10 against the Pistons. Harrison Barnes leads the team in scoring (18.8) and rebounding (6.1) plus rookie guard Dennis Smith Jr. (15.1 & 5.1 APG) has been one of the NBA's top 'freshman' all season. Philaderlphia: Many felt the the 76ers would fall off after Embiid (22.9 & 11.0) ) was sidelined with an orbital fracture but they have continued to win, going 5-0 in the games he's missed so far. Embiid won't return until sometime during the postseason. No player came up bigger than rookie PG Ben Simmons against the Cavs, as he scored 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting, added 15 rebounds, 13 assists and four steals in Friday's win. He's third on the etam in scoring at 16.0 PPG, while adding 8.2 RPG and APG. SG Redick checks in with 16.9 PPG, PF Saric at 14.8 & 6.8 and SF Covington at 12.8 & 5.4. Additions like Belinelli (13.3 PPG in 25 games) and Ilysova (10.4 & 6.5 in 20 games) have been huge plus last year's overall No. 1 pick (Fultz) has averaged 7.3 & 4.3 APG in his seven games back on the court. The pick: Philly had not yet gotten its act together when these two met back on Nov. 28, a game in which the Sixers held on for a 112-110 win after blowing most of their double-digit 4th-quarter lead. The team Dallas faces now is a well-oiled 'machine,' even without Embiid. However, this is a YUGE number and while the Mavs are averaging just 102.4 PPG (28th) on the season, they have averaged 107.0 PPG over their last three, despite missing Dirk and Barea. Dallas may be just 9-31 on the road but the Mavs are 20-19-1 ATS away from home. Also, Philly may just have a bit of a letdown after the team's dramatic 132-130 win over the Cavs. Take the points and make Dallas a 10* play. |
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04-07-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sedin twins - Daniel and Henrik - play their final game when the Vancouver Canucks visit the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday. The Sedins provided the Vancouver faithful with a lasting memory when Daniel scored twice, including the winner in overtime, and Henrik assisted on both as the Canucks defeated Arizona 4-3 on Thursday at an emotion-filled Rogers Arena. The Sedins, who played with dignity, style and grace for 17 seasons - all with the Canucks, announced their retirement Monday before providing a storybook ending to the home portion of their careers. The question to be answered here is, can they deliver an encore performance tonight in Edmonton, against the Oilers? Edmonton, like Vancouver, will miss the playoffs in a season in which many believed it could contend for the Stanley Cup. The Oilers finished with 103 points last season but will play their final game of the current season at 35-40-6, giving them only 76 points. Vancouver: Daniel Sedin shares the team lead in points (55) with rookie Brock Boeser (team-high 29 goals), who has been out since March 5 because of a back injury. Henrik is third with 50 points and his 830 career assists - including a club-high 47 this season - are good for 26th on the NHL's all-time list. Both Sedins have bedeviled Edmonton for nearly 20 years. Henrik has 17 goals and 67 assists in 95 games, while Daniel has 37 goals and 47 assists in 92 games. Edmonton: The lone highlight for the Oilers this season will be Connor McDavid winning his second straight Art Ross Trophy as the league's top point-getter. His 106 points (41 goals) give him a sizable lead in the Art Ross race. "I don't think anybody is missing the fact that he's been a dominant player, night in and night out,'' Edmonton head coach Todd McLellan told reporters about McDavid. "The odd, tough game when you have to really fight through that checking line or that checking pair, but man, he's been a tremendous spark plug for our team and most of our offense runs through him." McDavid had three assists in Thursday's 4-3 victory over Vegas, giving him 14 goals and 21 assists in his last 20 games. The pick: Vancouver has won two of the first three meetings this season with the Sedins combining for a goal (Daniel) and two assists. Daniel's 37 regular-season goals versus Edmonton are his most against any team. Let's stick with the "storybook ending" and take the 1 1/2 goals and make Vancouver an 8* play. |
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04-06-18 | Blues v. Blackhawks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -215 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Blues have lost four straight and at 43-31-6 on the season, find themselves against the ropes in a bid to secure the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference. The Blues have 92 points, one point behind the Avalanche for the final wild-card spot. St. Louis' most recent loss saw Chicago storm back from a two-goal deficit for a 4-3 victory. Defenseman Duncan Keith scored in the final seconds to complete the comeback and weaken the Blues' playoff chances. St. Louis goaltender Jake Allen took the blame for the loss (more later). The Blues play tonight in Chicago and then finish the season with a Saturday road game in Colorado. The 33-37-10 Blackhawks have just three wins in their last 10 outings (3-5-2), as they head toward their first spring without a playoff appearance since 2007-08. However, the team did address its future on Thursday by announcing that senior vice president/general manager Stan Bowman and head coach Joel Quenneville will remain in their current positions next season. St. Louis: Vladimir Tarasenko joined Brayden Schenn by scoring and setting up a goal on Wednesday in the loss to the Blackhawks. Tarasenko has a team-high 33 goals but his 66 points are one behind team leader, Schenn. Schenn continued his career season with 10 points in his last 12 games, boosting his personal-best totals in goals (27), assists (40) and points (67). Getting back to Allen taking the blame for the loss, other Blues players said nerves might have played a role. "If you're going to play nervous, then you better play smart," St. Louis coach Mike Yeo said to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "It (stinks), but at the end of the day, we have to stay positive," Blues center Brayden Schenn said. "Two-game winning streak here to get into the postseason." Allen is expected to get another chance in net Friday for St. Louis. The 27-year-old is 27-24-3 with a 2.74 goals-against average and .906 save percentage in 58 games (55 starts) on the season Chicago: Tonight's contest at the United Center is the finale of the home-and-home series. Rookie Alex DeBrincat, who had a hat trick in a 5-4 overtime loss to St. Louis on March 18, scored and set up a goal on Wednesday to boost his point total to 10 (six goals, four assists) in his past nine games. DeBrincat's owns a team-leading 28 goals are one more than former Hart Trophy recipient Patrick Kane, who has a team-leading 74 points. Jonathan Toews has 52 points (as does DeBrincat), while Nick Schmaltz has 51 points (21 goals). The pick: St. Louis has won five of its last seven trips to the United Center (including the postseason) but knowing it can make the playoffs by winning tomorrow night in Colorado, make teh Blues a shaky investment in this contest. Allen is expected to be in net for the Blues and he is 8-5-1 with a 2.53 GAA and .915 save percentage. However, he also comes in winless in his last four contests. The Blackhawks have been eliminated from playoff contention for the first time in a decade but it is safe to assume that a pride-filled Chicago roster will energized (as will be the crowd) at the possibility of crushing the postseason hopes of its longtime division rival. "It'd be nice to see them miss the playoffs," Blackhawks right winger Patrick Kane said to the Chicago Sun-Times this week. "So it'd be nice to have a hand in that." Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Chicago a 6* play. |
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04-06-18 | Cavs +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 130-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers have matched their longest winning streak in 28 years (12 in a row). The 48-30 Sixers now sit just a half-game back of the 49-30 Cleveland Cavaliers for teh East's No. 3, team which comes to Philly tonight. Philadelphia ended an 11-game losing streak against the Cavaliers when they last met on March 1 and the squad feels it is now in a sustained groove entering the rematch. Cleveland: LBJ (27.5-8.7-9.12 had 33 points, nine rebounds and 14 assists against Washington, just his latest stellar performance. Love (17.4 & 9.3) is back in the lineup but it was recently announced that Jeff Green will start from here out, meaning Love will be asked to play center, a position he's not comfortable with. The Cavaliers will likely be short at point guard on Friday with George Hill (ankle) expected to miss his fourth straight game and Jose Calderon (hamstring) likely to sit out his second. Philadelphia: 76ers have continued to win despite losing All-Star center Joel Embiid (22.9 & 11.0) to an orbital fracture, as they've won all four games in which he's missed so far. Embiid won't return until sometime during the postseason but starting power forward Dario Saric (14.9 & 6.9)) is expected to play on Friday after a three-game absence due to an elbow issue. Veteran Ersan Ilyasova (10.1 & 6.3 in 19 games with Philly) started in Saric's place and recorded back-to-back double-doubles, as the team's season-long trend of players responding to opportunities continued. "They play for each other," Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown told reporters. "They really co-exist well. It's stuff with our culture you've been building over the years, and the people we have included into this program have played for each other. I really think they get along well." Rookie PG Simmons may never be the eqaua of James (will anyone?) but he's a remarkably versatile player, averaging 15.8-8.1-8.1. The pick: The Sixers are red-hot but the Cavs aren't far behind. In this showdown game (very important to each team), I have to favor the Cavs and LBJ, with Embiid sidelined. Make the Cavs an 8* play. |
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04-05-18 | Clippers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 95-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Conference playoff chase has been a logjam behind the Rockets and Warriors all season, as eight teams have been fighting for the final six spots. With the NBA season entering its final seven days (April 11), Portland has clinched a playoff (will likely earn the No. 3 seed) but the next five teams are all withing one game of each other. The 45-33 Utah Jazz have won 26 of their past 31 games but haven't yet clinched a playoff spot (currently own the No. 4 seed), as they get set to welcome the Los Angeles Clippers to Salt Lake City. As for the 42-36 Clippers, they have no margin for error with four games remaining in the regular season when it comes to landing a Western Conference playoff spot. Los Angeles resides in 10th place in the West, one game back of No. 9 Denver and two games back of the T-wolves and Pelicans, who are both 44-34 and own the final two Western Conference playoff spots. LA Clippers: The Clippers recovered from a 19-point deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, keeping their postseason hopes alive. Head coach Doc Rivers was thrilled about his team's comeback against the Spurs, as a defeat would have been close to a death knell per the postseason chances. Veteran Lou Williams was struggling through a poor outing before he tallied 15 fourth-quarter points to finish with 22 while recording his third straight 20-point outing. Williams is averaging career highs in points (22.2) and assists (5.3) this season. Tobias Harris, acquired from Detroit in the Griffin trade, scored 31 points against the Spurs and is averaging 19.9 & 6.1 in his 28 games with LA (is Blake really missed?). Utah: The Jazz have won three straight and are a half-game up on San Antonio for fourth place in the Western Conference after the Spurs dropped an overtime decision last night to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Jazz had just beaten the Lakers 117-110 the night before, at home. PG Ricky Rubio (13.2-4.6-5.4) was superb against the Lakers, scoring 31 points on 10-of-15 shooting and also recording eight assists and six rebounds.Center Rudy Gobert (13.7 & 10.9) collected 16 rebounds against the Lakers and is averaging 13 per over the last five contests. Rookie guard Mitchell (20.4-3.6-3.6) is the favorite for ROY honors. He has scored at least 20 points in a season-high 10 straight games and has 44 games with 20 points this season. That’s the most by any rookie since Blake Griffin had 55 such games during the 2010-11 season. The pick: The Jazz are 2-1 versus the Clippers this season but that's after losing 18 of the previous 20 regular-season meetings between the two clubs. Sure, the Jazz are fighting for playoff positioning but the Clippers are fighting for their playoff lives. LA is a money-making 24-15-1 ATS on the road this season and I'm taking the points. Make the Clippers an 8* play. |
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04-03-18 | Hornets -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up-up: The Charlotte Hornets were mathematically eliminated from the postseason race over the weekend on the heels of three straight losses. The 33-44 Hornets dropped a 119-102 decision at home to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday and are embracing the player-development portion of the schedule through the end of the season, as they get set to visit the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday. The 26-51 Bulls know all about being out of the postseason race but they come into this contest having won two straight games for the first time since mid-January.. However, Chicago threw a wrench into the East standings by knocking off the playoff-bound Washington Wizards 113-94 on Sunday, as 12 different players logged at least 15 minutes for the Bulls, who shot 52.4 percent from the floor. Charlotte: All-Star guard Kemba Walker (22.6 & 5.6 APG) was limited to 26 minutes on Sunday, as Charlotte expanded the minutes down the roster, allowing Julyan Stone and Malik Monk to get more "PT." While Stone made his presence felt on the defensive end, Monk contributed on the offensive end of the floor by scoring 16 points in 24 minutes. Center Willy Hernangomez picked up some extra minutes at the expense of veteran Dwight Howard (16.7 & 12.3) and responded with 15 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes. However, Howard did record his 49th double-double of the season (10 & 10), tying him with Larry Johnson for the franchise record. A lot of good Howard's presence has done, as Charlotte's win percentage is .436, compared to .439 last season, without him Chicago: Zach LaVine (left knee) and Kris Dunn (toe) have each missed the last nine games and Chicago has announced both will be shut down for the rest of the season. Veterans Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday combined to go 8-of-11 from the floor and each played 17 minutes but it was the younger players doing the bulk of the damage in Sunday's triumph. Rookie forward Lauri Markkanen (15.0 & 7.5) scored a team-high 23 points on 7-of-11 shooting, while hauling in six rebounds in 25 minutes. Bobby Portis (13.2 & 6.8), 23, played just 16 minutes in the win but made his presence felt with 18 points to mark the 11th time in the last 12 games that he reached double figures. The pick: Chicago has taken two of the first three meetings this season between these "going nowhere" teams and as noted, both are somewhat in "player-development mode." However, no LaVine (16.7) and Dunn (13.4-4.2-6.0) doesn't bode well for Chicago here, as Walker and Howard, along with a number of other veterans, are still playing for contracts next season. I'm making Charlotte a 10* play. |
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04-03-18 | Warriors v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA's regular season ends April 11th and the 45-33 OKC Thunder are just a half-game back of the Spurs for the West's No. 4 seed (the last one which comes with a homecourt advantage) but they are also just one game up on the T-wolves (the current No. 7 seed) and 1 1/2 games clear of the 8th-seeded Pelicans. The Thunder had dropped three straight games by a total of just eight points before figuring things out down the stretch on Sunday by snapping their slide with a 109-104 win at New Orleans. OKC and Golden State have no love between them and while the Warriors are Golden State: Durant (26.3-6.8-5.4) was ejected in his first game back vs/ the bucks but has led the way in back-to-back wins while averaging 28 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists against Sacramento and Phoenix. Thompson (19.9) is playing with his thumb wrapped but it doesn't seem to be hampering his shooting stroke, as he is 20-of-38 from the floor over the last two games. Heading into this game, Curry (26.4-5.1-6.1 will miss his sixth consecutive game with a sprain of his left medial collateral ligament, guard Patrick McCaw is also out after a scary Saturday night injury that left him with a lumbar spine contusion, as is forward Omri Casspi with a right ankle sprain. Super-sub Andre Iguodala (knee soreness) and Kevon Looney (flu) are listed as doubtful, while Durant (rib soreness) and Thompson (fractured right thumb) are both listed as probable. That's more than a few "ifs." Oklahoma City: "This is a huge win," Paul George told reporters after the Thunder beat the Pelicans on Sunday. "This is a great win, playing against an opponent who is in the same position for us. A must win for both teams. It was a step in the right direction for us to pick up a game like this on an opponent’s floor." However, George (21.6 & 5.7) is shooting just 33.3 percent from the floor over the last five games and was just 9-of-24 on Sunday. Westbrook (25.4-9.8-10.2) recorded a triple-double with 26 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists on Sunday, breaking out of his own shooting slump by going 9-of-17 from the floor. Carmelo Anthony (16.3 & 5.8) completes OKC's "trio of stars," a group which has so far, underachieved (the playoffs will have the last say). The pick: The Thunder won the first two meetings thi season but the Warriors took the most recent meeting, 112-80 at home back on Feb. 24. OKC has looked shaky as of late (again!) but while the Warriors are off their first back-to-back SU wins in almost a month, their 'victims' were the 25-53 Kings and the NBA-worst Suns (19-59). Impossible to ignore Golden State's 4-12 ATS run since. ate Feb. Make OKC an 8* play. |
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04-01-18 | Bucks +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 41-35 Milwaukee Bucks are well clear of ninth-place Detroit after a 124-122 overtime victory against the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday. However, the Bucks are jockeying for position with Washington and Miami for the final three playoff spots in the East. Milwaukee currently owns the No. 7 seed, one game back of Washington and only a half-game ahead of the Heat. The Nuggets may have a similar 41-35 record to that of the Bucks, but as they begin a three-game homestand Sunday against Milwaukee, Denver sits two games behind Utah and New Orleans, who are tied for seventh and own the final two postseason spots in the Western Conference. The the Nuggets have a favorable schedule down the stretch but so do the Jazz and Pelicans. Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.3-10.0-4.8) recorded 27 points and 16 rebounds Friday, giving him five 25-point, 15-rebound games this season, second-most in the Eastern Conference to Philadelphia's Joel Embiid (six). Eric Bledsoe (17.7-3.9-4.9) added 39 points and is averaging 24 over his last four games. Swingman Middleton (20.3 & 5.2) had 28 points, as Milwaukee's version of a "Big 3" combined for 94 points against LA. Jabari is averaging a modest 11.0 & 4.1 in his 25 games back but is showing progress. Meanwhile, John Henson (8.8 & 6.9) remains day-to-day after missing his second straight game Friday with a finger injury plus Malcolm Brogdon (13.3 points) has missed the last 26 games with a quad injury but is working his way toward a return before the regular season ends. Denver: The Nuggets continue to play without their second-leading scoer Gary Harris (17.7), who has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. "Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to see him for a while,'' Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told the Denver Post. "Just being completely honest. Obviously, I am not a doctor, but in talking to our training staff, Gary has been working hard to get back, but I think he is still a ways away.'' Denver features six double digit scorers even without Harris, led by center Jokic (17.8 & 10.6). He's followed by guard Murray (16.5), swingman Barton (15.2-4.9-4.1) and now healthy PF Millsap (14.8 & 6.3)). The pick: Jokic is an under-the-radar star, who has 14 triple-doubles since the start of the 2016-17 season, fourth-most in the NBA behind Russell Westbrook (65), LeBron James (29) and James Harden (25). |
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04-01-18 | Devils v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Jersey Devils completed a 3-0-1 homestand with Saturday's 4-3 triumph over the New York Islanders. The victory moved the 41-28-9 Devils five points ahead of Florida for the second wild card and pulled it within one of Philadelphia for the first spot with four games remaining. New Jersey hopes to tighten its hold on a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference when they Devils visit the 28-38-12 Montreal Canadiens on Sunday. The Canadiens won the Atlantic Division with 103 points last season but the team's 68 points this season, are better than only two other clubs in the 16-team Eastern Conference. New Jersey: Taylor Hall, a candidate for the Hart Trophy as the NHL's most valuable player, continued his torrid pace Saturday as he scored twice to increase his career-high totals to 36 goals and 88 points while helping the Devils climb within three points of Columbus for third place in the Metropolitan Division. Will Butcher notched a pair of assists against the Islanders to set the franchise record for most by a rookie defenseman (39). Kyle Palmieri had his three-game goal-scoring streak snapped Saturday but registered an assist to extend his point run to four contests before leaving midway through the third period after being clipped under his eye by the stick of captain Andy Greene. Blake Coleman scored the team's 11th short-handed goal of the season Saturday, tying it with Edmonton for the league lead. Montreal: The Canadiens are kicking off a two-game homestand, before ending the season with a pair of contests on the road. Montreal dropped a 5-2 decision at Pittsburgh on Saturday, marking its third loss to the Penguins in 17 days.Brendan Gallagher recorded two assists against Pittsburgh to extend his point streak to five games (he's reached the 50-point plateau for the first time in his career with 51). Defenseman David Schlemko returned to the lineup Saturday after missing 12 games with an upper-body injury and blocked two shots while posting a minus-2 rating in 17 minutes, 17 seconds of ice time. The pick: Both the Devils and the Canadiens will be playing the second of back-to-back games but only the Devils have something to play for. What's more, the Devils are 20-14-5 on the road this season, tied for the third-most victories away from home in the Eastern Conference behind only the Tampa Bay Lighting (25) and the Boston Bruins (22). That said, the Devils are allowing 3.10 GPG on the road this season, while the Cnadiens have been OK on home ice, going 18-13-8. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and will make Montreal a 6* play. |
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04-01-18 | Thunder -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The final day of the NBA's regular season is April 11th and seven teams are vying for five playoff spots in the Western Conference, separated by just three games from the 4th through 10th spots. The 44-33 OKC Thunder and the 43-33 New Orleans Pelicans square off Sunday, with both teams suffering through ill-timed three-game losing streaks.OKC currently owns the No. 6 seed but is just a half-game up on the Pelicans, who own the eighth and final playtoff spot. New Orleans holds a two-game edge on the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, who are both currently on the outside looking in. Oklahoma City: The Thunder saw their stars struggle in a 126-125 overtime loss to Denver at home on Friday, as Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George combined to shoot 25-of-65. OKC wasted their franchise-record 20 three-pointers, as the Thunder blew a six-point lead with 2:22 left in regulation and hurt themselves with missed foul shots and layups. "We just have to finish them," Westbrook told reporters after Friday's loss. "We did a good job of locking in when we needed to get stops. We just need to put the ball in the hole." OKC's three straight losses have come by a combined eight points and all were against West playoff hopefuls, making for a frustrating slide. New Orleans: Anthony Davis struggled in scoring only16 points on 6-of-19 shooting in the 107-102 loss at Cleveland on Friday. However, Jrue Holiday continued his stellar play and kept New Orleans close while Davis struggled. He scored 25 points on 12-of-18 shooting after recording a triple-double against Portland on Tuesday. Rajon Rondo (wrist) returned from a two-game absence to hand out eight assists and Nikola Mirotic added 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting after producing a total of seven points on 2-of-13 over his previous two games. The pick: After losing six of eight to Oklahoma City, the Pelicans have won both matchups against the Thunder this season. New Orleans defeated OKC 114-107 at home on Nov. 20 and 114-100 on the road on Feb. 2. However, the Pelicans ranked as high as the fourth seed in the Western Conference standings just 10 days ago but are now holding on precariously to the eighth and final playoff spot entering Sunday's contest against the Thunder. Oklahoma City is in a little better shape but the Thunder badly need a victory to solidify their playoff positioning. After this game with the Pelicans, OKC hosts Golden State and then visits Houston. OKC really needs this one and the optimism of the 4-2 record New Orleans put together during a marathon eight-day stretch is starting to 'melt away.' Make OKC a 10* play. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 130 h 7 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -102 | 127 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: While a pair of No. 1 seeds (Villanova and Kansas) square off in Saturday's second game, the first game of the NCAA's semifinals features the No. 11-seeded Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. the No. 3-seeded Michigan Wolverines. The Ramblers are just the fourth No. 11 seed to advance to a Final Four and hope to become the first one to advance to the title game. Loyola's NCAA run has been "magical," winning their first three games by a grand total of four points, before the team's resounding 78-62 win over No. 9 seed Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers are 32-5 on the season and enter on a 14-game winning streak (21-1 over their last 22 games), going 23-9-1 ATS on the season, including 11-3 ATS during their current winning streak. Michigan did not look good in its first two NCAA wins (needed a 'miracle three' to beat Houston) but looked great in its Sweet 16 romp over Texas A&M and controlled most of the second half against FSU, although the Wolverines won just 58-54. Michigan also owns 32 wins (seven losses) on the season and comes in 24-12-2 ATS on the year. The Wolverines come in on a 13-game winning streak, going 10-2-1 ATS, as eight of their wins have come by double digits. Loyola-Chicago: The Ramblers looked very impressive in downing Kansas State, shooting 57.4% from the floor (including 9-of-1) from beyond the arc), while holding Kansas State to just 34.8% shooting. Ben Richardson led with 23 points. He's one of four starting guards but averages a modest 7.0 & 3.9 APG. The other three, all made game-winning or game-clinching shots in Loyola's first three NCAA wins. The trio is led by MVC player-of-the-year Custer (13.2 & 4.2 APG) plus Ingram (11.3 & 6.3) and Townes (11.2 & 3.9). 6-9 freshman Krutwig starts at center, averaging 10.3 & 6.1. SF Jackson (11.0) and guard Williamson (4.9) round out the team's seven-man rotation. Loyola scores a modest 72.0 PPG (225th) but shoots an impressive 50.9% from the floor as team (3rd-best in the nation). Defensively, Loyola has allowed only 62.4 PPG on the season, ranking fifth-best in the nation. Michigan: The Wolverines used a 9-0 run to start the 2nd half, creating some separation from the Seminoles and held off a late Florida State charge after taking a 54-44 lead with just 2:26 left in regulation. Michigan shot only 38.8% from the floor but did hold Florida State to just 31.4% shooting, including just 4-of-17) on threes beyond the arc. Charles Matthews had 17 points, to lead Michigan to the win. Matthews is one of four contributing guards and is averaging 13.0 & 5.6 on the season. Fellow starters are Abdur-Rahkman (12.8-3.9-3.3 apg) and Zavier Simpson (7.5-3.3-3.7). The 6-11 Warner leads in scoring (14.3 ) and rebounding (6.9) while 6-7 freshman Livers is only a nominal starter (he averages 3.6 & 2.3 in right around 15 MPG). Sixth-man Robinson, checks in averaging 9.5 PPG and let's not forget freshman Jordan Poole (6.2), whose 'miracle 3' beat Houston. Like Loyola, Michigan does not score all that much (74.1 PPG) but similar to the Ramblers, the Wolverines know how to play defense, allowing 63.1 PPG to rank 8th-best in the nation. The pick: You've all been told all about Loyola's 1963 NCAA champions and how this year's team is a reminder of that over-achieving group. There are similarities but it's doubtful Porter Moser will go the entire game like the '63 team, which didn't substitute once in regulation or overtime in the title game vs. Cincinnati (can't make that up!). Both teams play excellent D and Michiagn's John Beilein is one of the nation's best. However, Porter Moser is proving he may soon belong in the discussion of top-notch coaches and his team is a worthy Final 4 participant, The Ramblers have plenty of balance with five double-digit scorers, including 6-9 freshman Krutwig in the middle to battle Warner. The team has plenty of size on the wings to shoot over the Michigan defense on the perimeter. In Clayton Custer, Donte Ingram, and Marques Townes, Moser has clutch scorers who each made key last-second baskets that allowed the Ramblers to escape the early rounds. Don't be surprised to see that happen again. Take the points and make Loyola a 10* play. |
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03-30-18 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The surging Washington Capitals are the two-time reigning Presidents' Trophy winners. The Caps won't earn that distinction in 2018 but they are closing in on their third consecutive Metropolitan Division title. The 46-24-7 Capitals are five points ahead of the two-time defending champion Penguins (99-to-94 points), as they look to extend their winning streak to a season-high six games tonight, when they host the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina's playoff hopes unraveled after the Hurricanes lost 11 of 14 starting in mid-February and now, even if they win their final five games, they will be mathematically eliminated from contention if New Jersey earns one point over its last five games (Good night, nurse!). Carolina: The Hurricanes saw their three-game winning streak end Tuesday night in a 4-3 loss at New Jersey. Noah Hanifin, Phillip Di Giuseppe and Warren Foegele scored for the Hurricanes, and Scott Darling made 41 saves. Forward Phillip Di Giuseppe has come alive by netting three goals and setting up three others in the past four contests, after managing just one goal and one assist in an 18-game span. He owns just five goals and five assists in 44 games. The team's top-two scorers are Aho (27 goals and 63 points) and Teravainen (23 goals and 61 points). Rookie Warren Foegele has scored in each of his first two NHL games but he was sent back to Charlotte of the American Hockey League on Thursday. Washington: The Caps completed a home-and-home sweep of the New York Rangers on Wednesday night (3-2 OT win) to improve to 9-1-0 over their last 10 games With Philipp Grubauer ailing, Washington needed Braden Holtby to come up with a solid effort and he delivered with 35 saves against New York. However, it marked only the second time in 11 starts that Holtby has yielded fewer than three goals. Alex Ovechkin leads with 45 goals and 83 points plus Nicklas Backstrom has eight assists during a three-game point streak and is four shy of reaching 50 for the fifth straight season (19 goals and 46 assists). The pick: Carolian will certainly fall short of the playoffs but the Hurricanes did skate to a 3-1 victory in their last visit to Washington on Jan. 11.As noted above, Holtby has been far from great in goal as of late for Washington, while veteran Cam Ward has won his last three starst for Caroina. I'll take teh 1 1/2 goals and make the Hurricanes an 8* play. |
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03-29-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -124 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees surprised many by hiring Aaron Boone as their new manager (first-ever managerial job) but taht news was overshadowed by their off-season acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees took the Astros in seven games in the ALCS last season and now will pair Stanton, the NL's MVP, with Aaron Judge, the AL's rookie-of-the-year. The duo combined for 111 HRs in 2017. The Blue Jays finished 10 games below .500 in 2017, after making the playoffs in back-to-back years. More bad news is that the Jays enter 2018 with concerns over the left side of their infield, as oft-injured third baseman Josh Donaldson is dealing with general body soreness and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is scheduled to see a specialist for a bone spur that sidelined him in spring training. Health is always a concern for second baseman Devon Travis, who missed the final 100 games last season, while the outfield will have a new look with National League imports Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (2017: 14-6, 2.98 ERA) blossomed into New York's ace in his third year, finishing third in the American League Cy Young voting and will get the Opening Day start. The pick: However, Severino has never defeated Toronto, going 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA in seven games, including six starts. He was 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays in 2017 (NYY were 0-2). In stark contrast, while Happ was limited to 25 starts last season because of injury, he was 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts in 2017 against the Yankees (Jays were 2-0) and he's 8-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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03-28-18 | Knicks +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: "The Process" is working, as the 43-30 Philadelphia 76ers have won seven straight games and are now just a half-game back of the Cavs for the East's No. 3 seed. After dominating the Denver Nuggets in a 123-104 home victory on Monday, the 76ers upped their home record to 25-10 (24-11 ATS). More good news comes their way in that they will play seven of their last nine games against teams with losing records, beginning with the 27-48 Knicks. New York is 21 games under .500 but is playing well on its road trip, stunning the Washington Wizards in a 101-97 win on Sunday and then falling 137-128 in overtime at Charlotte on Monday. The Knicks are NY Knicks: New York is spending the rest of the season giving players a chance to earn a spot on next year's team. PG Trey Burke is making the most of his opportunity, scoring a team-high 19 points in the win at Washington, then exploding on Monday for a career-high 42 points on 19-of-31 shooting, while adding 12 assists. Burke is 25-years-old and the former Wolverine was a lottery pick for the Jazz but was plucked out of the G League by the Knicks in January. He is averaging 23 points on 57.4 percent shooting over the past four games. Center Enes Kanter has recorded a double-double in each of the last five games and has had a solid season, despite New York's woes, averaging 14.0 & 10.9 Philadedlphia; The 76ers have been led all season by Joel Embiid (23.2 & 11.1) plus rookie PG Ben Simmons (15.8-8.-8.0). That duo has been joined by SG Redick (16.5), PF Saric (14.9 & 6.8) and SF Covington (12.7 & 5.4), giving Philly a quality starting-five. Also, picking up Marco Belinelli has been huge, as he is averaging 15.8 points on 60.4 percent shooting over the last four games and 11.9 PPG in his 19 games with Philly. What's more, the 76ers got another promising youngster back in the lineup on Monday, when No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz (shoulder) returned from a five-month absence. Fultz collected 10 points and eight assists in 14 minutes off the bench and is trying to get up to speed in time to be a factor off the bench in the postseason. "The way he was embraced by his teammates just reinforces what I think of our group and how close they really are," 76ers head coach Brett Brown told reporters of his team's reaction to Fultz's return. "And then he came out and he played. He showed signs of why he was the first player chosen." The pick: Philadelphia has taken each of the first three meetings this season. At first blush, this looks like a "lay the points kind of game." However, this is a huge pointspread for the young Sixers to lay (could close as the team's largest pointspread lay of the season!) and the Knicks are 6-1 ATS their last seven. Take the big points and make the Knicks an 8* play. |
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03-28-18 | Cavs v. Hornets +1 | Top | 118-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers went down to Miami last night on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), having averaged 122.2 PPG. However, that streak came to a crashing halt in Miami, as the Heat held them to just 36.5 percent shooting in a 98-79 loss. It marked Cleveland's lowest-scoring effort in exactly one year. The Cavs have no time to pick up the pieces, as they visit the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday. The 44-30 Cavs will play five of their final seven games at home after finishing up in Charlotte, and currently sit just a half-game ahead of both the Sixers and Pacers in the race for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the 34-41 Hornets are on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention, although they have refused to go quietly. Charlotte has averaged 122.5 points during a four-game winning streak, just a single victory shy of matching its longest winning streak of the season. Cleveland: Not much went right for the Cavs last night in Miami. Kevin Love managed one point in seven minutes before he was knocked from Tuesday's loss due to an elbow by Miami's Jordan Mickey. Love also exhibited some concussion-like symptoms and will be re-evaluated in the morning before it is determined whether he will continue the trip to Charlotte. LeBron James was limited to 18 points (on 7-for-18 shooting) his lowest total since Feb. 23. As a team, Cleveland finished with a season-low four makes from beyond the arc in 26 attempts. Charlotte: Kemba Walker (23.1 & 5.7 APG) scored 11 of his 31 points in overtime, as Charlotte got past the New York Knicks 137-128 on Monday. Charlotte is 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with seven to play and the writing is on the wall, which frustrates someone like Walker, who is in his seventh season with the Hornets and has appeared in just 11 playoff games. However, the two-time All-Star is doing all he can to keep Charlotte's slim hopes alive and is averaging 31.3 points during the winning streak. I guess the same can be said about Dwight Howard, who on Mar. 21 (the first of Charlotte's four straight wins) scored 32 points while grabbing 30 rebounds. Howard was the first NBA player with a 30-point, 30-rebound game since Kevin Love did it for Minnesota on Nov. 12, 2010. He's averaging 16.7 & 12.4 on the season but once again, his addition to yet another team has not improved that team's lot in life! It's becoming a 'broken record.' The pick: However, Charlotte has no pressure and I see them playing well here.Sure, Cleveland has won each of the last eight meetings, including three straight at Charlotte, but the Cavs could be without Love tonight plus LBJ played 38 minutes in the front end of a back-to-back last night in Miami. The Cavs are a money-burning 26-47-1 ATS on the season and that includes a horrific 16-42-1 mark when favored. Take the small home dog and make the Hornets a 10* play. |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -6 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The CIT Tournament flies "way under the radar" but the semifinals of this tourney will be contested tonight. The UIC Flames and Liberty Flames will square off at the Vines Center, Liberty's homecourt in Lynchburg, Va. UIC has had a nice season as the 19-15 Flames will finish this season with their first winning record since the 2012-13 season and look poised to be a contender in the Horizon League next year. Liberty made it to the Big South championship game where it was nipped by Radford at the buzzer and comes into this contest at 22-14, after two home wins. UIC: The Flames defeated Austin Peay a week ago Wednesday, despite trailing by a 14-points early in the 2nd half. An 11-0 run was the key and after a Tai Odiase dunk gave the Flames an 80-76 lead with 1:11 left in regulation., UIC held on for an 83-81 win. Did UIC hold Austin Peay to just 2-of-16 shooing from beyond the arc, or did the Governors just shoot poorly? Leading the way for the Flames was Tarkus Ferguson ,who had 21 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Ferguson (10.2-5.3-5.2) is joined by two others in double digits. The 6-7 Dixson (14.2 & 3.5) is the team's leading scorer (more on that in a bit) and guard Ottey adds 13.5 PPG. Odiase, the team's 6-9 center, adds 9.4 PPG and a team-high 5.7 RPG. UIC averages 75.6 PPG (12nd) on 45.3% shooting. Liberty: Try to figure out the CIT bracket methodology. Liberty's first game was Mar 12 (a 65-52 home win over NC A&T) but then didn't play again until March 24, when it used a big second half to defeat the Central Michigan Chippewas 84-74, this past Saturday. Liberty closed the 1st half on a 9-0 run to tie the game at 39-all. Then pulled away from Central Michigan midway through the 2nd half after an 11-0 Flames run gave Liberty a 64-53 lead with 9:18 left in regulation. Liberty shot 56.1% from the floor and 44.0% (12-25) from beyond the arc in the victory. Leading the way for the Flames was Scottie James who had 20 points and nine rebounds. The 6-7 James (a transfer from Bradley) leads in scoring (13.6) and rebounding (8.9), while four guards follow, three in double digits. PG Cabbil (11.2-4.4-3.8) heads the team's quartet of guards, followed by Kemrite (10.3), Pacheco-Ortiz (10.1) and Homesley (8.1 & 4.6). Liberty averages a modest 71.4 PPG (243rd) but holds opponents to just 63.5 PPG (9th) on 41.5% shooting (50th). The pick: Maybe this is "Chicago's year," considering Loyola is in the Final Four? Then again, winning on Liberty's homecourt will be a real challenge, as head coach Ritchie McKay’s team already owns a pair of 13-point home wins in this tourney. What's more, UIC's leading scorer, Dikembe Dixson, decided to go the Leonard Fournette/Christian McCaffrey route and sit out the postseason to instead prepare for the upcoming NBA draft. Does he think he's LBJ??? Make Liberty a 10* play. |
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03-27-18 | Bulls +15 v. Rockets | Top | 86-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: With Golden State's starting-five looking like a M*A*S*H unit, the Houston Rockets are close to clinching the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, as well as the No. 1 overall seed . The 60-14 Rockets have already set a franchise record for wins but that doesn't mean they plan on taking their foot off the gas. James Harden's triple-double (18-10-15) in Sunday's 118-99 rout of the Atlanta Hawks cliched the team's first 60-win campaign, upped Houston's lead over Golden State to 5 1/2 games and was the Rockets' 26th win in their last 27 games (the lone loss in that span came by three points at East-best Toronto on March 9). The Rockets will play five of their last eight games at home and after easily taking care of the Eastern Conference-worst Hawks (19-53), the Rockets welcome the almost as bad 24-49 Chicago Bulls to the Toyota Center. The Bulls are losers of five in a row and aren't even getting a chance to look at their three best young players, as Lauri Markkanen (back), Kris Dunn (toe) and Zach LaVine (knee) all sat out in Saturday's 117-95 loss at Detroit. Chicago: Markkanen (14.8 & 7.6) and Dunn (13.4-4.3-6.0) are both questionable for Tuesday while LaVine (16.7 PPG in just 24 games) is expected to be out until early April. Other young players are trying to step up. Small forward Denzel Valentine (10.4 & 5.3) averaged 19 points while going 14-of-27 from the floor in the last two games, including 8-of-14 from beyond the arc. Cameron Payne (9.0 & 4.1 APG) is starting at point guard in place of Dunn and scored in double figures in each of the last three games, his longest run of the season. Houston:The Rockets have relied on the isolation brilliance of James Harden and Chris Paul, plus their volume t-point shooting, to overwhelm opposing defenses. That the Rockets continue to score with breathtaking efficiency without mashing the throttle is a testament to their talent and execution, although they can hurry when the need arises. Harden (30.7-5.4-8.7) and Paul (18.8-5.6-7.9) are the stars, although Gordon (18.1) scoring makes for a terrific guard trio, while center Clint Capela (14.1 & 11.0) has turned into a double-double 'machine.' Houston ranks second in scoring (113.5) and leads the NBA in offensive rating at 113.1 points per 100 possessions The pick: The Rockets are riding a nine-game winning streak and have gone 16-1 since the break. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 4-12 since the break. Chicago doesn't have much incentive to win games down the stretch given its position in the Eastern Conference standings and the possibility of landing an impact prospect high in the lottery of the upcoming draft. However, the Rockets are a more modest 5-4 ATS during the nine-game streak and the closing pointspread on this contest may well be the most amount of points that Houston had given up all season. Don't ignore the fact that the Rockets are 7-14 ATS at home when laying 10 points or more. Take those points and make Chicago a 10* play. |
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03-26-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers have shown signs that the team is on the rise, despite suffering a plethora of injuries. LA wraps up a four-game road trip tonight in Detroit, with a chance for a 2-2 split. The Lakers dropped the first two stops at Indiana and New Orleans before snapping a four-game slide with a 100-93 win at Memphis on Saturday. The 33-40 Detroit Pistons have played their way out of a realistic shot at an Eastern Conference playoff spot (trail the eighth seed by 5 1/2 games with nine games remaining) but are winners of three of their last four. LA Lakers: The Lakers are trying to give their prized rookies as much playing time as possible, as the season winds down. PG Lonzo Ball (second overall pick) and forward Kyle Kuzma (27th overall pick) have played heavy minutes in March, with Kuzma continuing to make the stronger impression. During the month, Ball is averaging 9.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.3 steals in 37.4 minutes per game but is shooting just 31.9 percent from the floor. Meanwhile, Kuzma is averaging 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 37.5 minutes while shooting 46.4 percent. However, LA is expected to be without two of its top players on Monday, as Isaiah Thomas (15.6 & 5.0 APG in 17 games) has already been ruled out because of a sore right hip. Also, leading scorer, SF Brandon Ingram (16.2-5.4-3.9) has missed the last 11 games because of a groin injury and is doubtful. 6-9 PF Julius Randle, having a breakout season in averaging 16.1 & 7.8, suffered an injured ankle during his last outing, leaving his status unclear for Monday's game against the Pistons. Detroit: The Pistons Detroit took advantage of the depleted Chicago Bulls on Saturday and set a franchise record with 13 three-pointers in the first half in a 117-95 rout. Anthony Tolliver scored a season-high 25 points and went 6-of-12 from 3-point range to lead the way, and the Pistons handed out 33 assists. It was Detroit's third win in four gam,es but after going 3-13 from Feb. 9 through Mar. 17, it's all but assuredly too little too late. Blake Griffin continues to be heralded as a "difference-maker" but the Pistons' record since he joined them paints a very different picture.Griffin is averaging 20.0-6.7-6.3 in 24 games with Detroit, with the Pistons going 10-14 SU & 9-15 ATS. The pick: Blake Griffin is getting a lot of heat for Detroit’s shortcomings but in fairness, without PG Reggie Jackson for so long (he has returned the last three games and doesn't look 100 percent), Griffin is being asked to do WAY too much.The Lakers are fighting some key injuries but are 13-9 ATS since the start of Feb. Take the points and make LA a 10* play. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The set-Up: There is more than just a small dose of normalcy on deck in the NCAA's Midwest Regional Final from CenturyLink Center in Omaha, as two of college basketball's true blue bloods, top-seeded Kansas and second-seeded Duke square off for the right to advance to the Final Four. Kansas and Duke have combined to win eight NCAA titles, including three of the last 10, and are two of the top-four winningest programs in NCAA history (rank 2nd & 4th in all-time victories). After extending its record Big 12 regular-season title streak to 14, Kansas won the Big 12 tourney and has now advanced to the Elite Eight for the third straight year, jumping out to a 20-point lead early in the second half before holding off Clemson, 80-76, on Friday night. Duke, the AP's preseason No. 1, will be trying to advance to the Final Four for the 17th time (it would a record 13th Final 4 for Coach K) after grinding out a 69-65 victory over Syracuse. The Blue Devils are back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015, when they won their fifth NCAA championship. Duke: The Blue Devils beat the Orange despite shooting only 39.3 percent (including 5-of-26 from three-point range,), while getting outrebounded, 37-33. Duke starts four freshmen but don't feel too sorry for Coach K, who picked up his 1,100th career coaching victory and 94th career tournament win against Syracuse (both NCAA record). Two of the freshmen, 6-11 forward Marvin Bagley III (21.2 & 11.1), who garnered ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors plus the 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. (13.6 & 9.3) are both both projected as top-10 draft picks (most likely, HIGH top-10 picks!). Freshman guards Gary Trent Jr. (14.4 & 4.3) and Trevon Duval (10.0 & 5.6 APG) are also considered potential first rounders and senior guard Grayson Allen (15.6 & 4.7 APG) may just join his freshman teammates on draft night, as well. Bagley has been a 'rock,' scoring exactly 22 points in each of Duke's tourney wins. Allen had 15 points and a team-high eight assists in Friday night's win but was just 3-of-14 from three-point range. Duke's 84.4 PPG ranks 8th in the nation and the team's 49.4 percent shooting from the floor ranks 12th. Kansas: The Jayhawks have made it this far despite the loss of five-star recruit Billy Preston to eligibility issues and 7-foot center Udoka Azubuike being forced to play with a left knee brace to help support a MCL injury suffered in a March 6 practice. The team's lone big man of note was forced sit out the Big 12 Tournament and then played just three minutes in a 76-60 opening-round win over Pennsylvania. However, Azubuike has averaged 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in the last two games while connecting on 11-of-14 shots despite limping noticeably at times (he's shooting 77.5 percent on the season!). Azubuike's (13.2 & 7.0) presence inside will be a key factor in trying to defend the imposing Duke front line of Bagley and Carter but Kansas will likely need to rely on its outstanding perimeter people to win The quartet of Graham (17.3 & 7.4 APG), Svi Mykhailiuk (14.8 ppg), Malik Newman (13.5 7 4.9) and Lagerald Vick (12.1 &4.9) are quite a handful and all are excellent three-point shooters, who will test Duke's 2-3 zone. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG (29th) plus ranks 11th in both FG percentage (49.5) and three-point percentage (40.5). The pick: Here's the bottom line in a battle between Kansas (2,247 wins is second in all-time Division I victories) and Duke (fourth with 2,144 wins). This marks the sixth time Bill Self's Kansas team has been a No. 1 seed and and advanced to the Elite 8. However, Self's teams are 0-5 in their previous five tries and considering Duke is a money-making 22-12 ATS this season (including 9-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite), the Blue Devils are an 8* play. |
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