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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati -2 | 85-69 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Houston comes in off a 90-79 home win over SMU, while Cincinnati looks to close the regular season on a winning note after dropping a a tight 58-55 game at UCF in its latest action. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after falling 65-58 at Houston in the first meeting. The Bearcats are also in a “must win” situation here to earn a tie for top spot in the AAC with Houston. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Cincinnati in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Houston is just 2-4 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points in its previous outing, while the Bearcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Lay the short points. 8* Play |
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03-09-19 | Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks | Top | 114-131 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-09-19 | St. John's v. Xavier -2.5 | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams are tied for third at 8-9 with five other schools. This is a big game, as the winner could potentially earn the No. 3 seed in the upcoming tournament. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Red Storm have zero momentum after losing three of their last four, most recently getting smoked 92-83 at DePaul Sunday. St. John’s is 3-5 on the road in conference play, allowing 79 PPG. St. John’s has lost seven straight in this series and it’s just 1-4 at Xavier since the Big East reconfigured in 2013. Xavier is on the bubble as well and it’ll be out to bounce back on Seniors Night after a 71-66 loss at Butler on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home game svs. a team with an above .500 road record, while St. John’s is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick. Lay the short points. 9* play |
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03-09-19 | Baylor +7.5 v. Kansas | 70-78 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: Baylor is still basically “on the bubble,” so a signature road victory in its season finale would seal the deal. The Bears currently site one game behind Kansas in the conference standings, so to say this is a big game would be an understatement. Baylor comes in focused after back-to-back losses. The Bears average 113.9 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.1 points per 100 possessions. However note that Byalor has given up just 97.9 points per 100 possessions during league play. Kansas broke a two-game slide with an 81-68 win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks average 113.7 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.8 in league play. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Kansas is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning SU record, while Baylor is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Grab the points. 8* play |
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03-09-19 | Tennessee -2 v. Auburn | 80-84 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Vols come in off a 71-54 home win over Mississippi State to move to 15 in league play, while the Tigers are 10-7 after beating Alabama on the road. The Vols are in a fight with LSU for the top spot, but regardless they’re still projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA. The Vols look to keep the foot on the gas after three straight wins. Overall Tennessee averages 82.4 PPG and it allows 67.1. Auburn has won three straight as well. The Tigers average 79.9 PPG and they allow 68.1. The pick: Take it for what you will though but Tennessee is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a road favorite or pick, while Auburn is 0-3 ATS as a home dog or pick and 0-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Tennessee is the correct call here, lay the short points. 9* play |
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03-08-19 | St. Joe's +12.5 v. VCU | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair. The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-07-19 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas State +3 | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: Louisiana Monroe comes in off a deflating 97-91 home loss to Coastal Carolina on Saturday. Arkansas State is looking to rebound as well after an 81-70 road loss to Georgia Southern over the weekend. But the Red Wolves have to be feeling confident here, because they already took the first meeting between the teams 85-75 on the road on January 6th. Louisiana Monroe has alternated wins and losses over its last six. Overall the Warhawks average 78.5 PPG and they allow 75.2. Arkansas State still has a chance to move up out of ninth place and there’s no better opportunity than this one. The Red Wolves average 73.5 PPG and they allow 77.2. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Louisiana Monroe is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a war until the end between these two hungry teams. 9* play |
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03-07-19 | Cincinnati v. UCF -2 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge. 10* play |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. 10* play |
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03-06-19 | St Bonaventure +6 v. Davidson | Top | 46-64 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war. 10* play |
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03-05-19 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -4.5 | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Hokies come in off a confidence building 77-72 home win over Duke to improve to 11-6 in league action, while the Seminoles moved to 11-5 within the ACC after their 78-73 home win over NC State. VT enters on top form, but I think it’ll have a difficult time in this difficult road venue. Overall the Hokies average 74.5 PPG and they allow 61.5. FSU has won ten of its last 11 league games. The Seminoles are 14-1 SU at home this year. In those contests they’ve averaged 79.5 PPG and allowed 67.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-2 ATS in the last ten home games in this series, while VT is still only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. I look for these strong trends to continue. Lay the points. 9* play |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler -3.5 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: Xavier comes in off an 84-73 road win over St. John’s, but I think it’ll struggle to duplicate that same energy for a second straight contest away from friendly confines. Butler won’t be lacking for motivation here either. The Bulldogs come in off a humbling 75-54 loss to Villanova and will be eager to atone for that mess. They also play with revenge here after falling 70-69 on the road in the first matchup this season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is still only 4-6 ATS on the road this year. Butler on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as home favorite in the 2.5 to 6 points range. Everything points to a blowout. Lay the points. 9* play |
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03-04-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -4 | Top | 113-105 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9. The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points. 10* play |
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03-04-19 | Northern Arizona +15 v. Montana | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: Northern Arizona comes in hungry after back-to-back losses and defeats in six of its last eight. Most recently UNA lost 84-73 to Montana State. Northern Arizona is led by Jonahtan Andre weigh 13.4 points and 8.4 boards per game. overall the Lumberjacks average 73.2 PPG. Montana enters off a 70-54 win over Southern Utah. Montana averages 77.3 PPG. The pick: Montana though is a terrible 3-8 ATS in conference home games. The Lumberjacks play with revenge here as well after the Grizzlies took the first meeting on the road. I’m not calling for the outright, but all signs point to a closer battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 8* play |
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03-04-19 | Virginia v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 79-53 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions. The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-02-19 | Thunder +3 v. Spurs | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it. 10* play |
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03-02-19 | Washington State v. California | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cal had lost 16 in a row before upsetting Washington Thursday and now the Golden Bears look to make it tow in a row. A date vs. WSU, who was blowout out by Stanford is just what the doctor ordered for Cal. The Golden Bears looked great in the win over the Huskies, out-rebounding Washington 29-26 and committing only 11 turnovers vs. one of the conference’s top defensive units. Not surprisingly, Cal plays with revenge here as well after falling 82-59 in WSU last month. The undermanned Cougars’ 98-50 loss to the Cardinal is a sign of things to come for WSU down the stretch in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WSU is just 3-6 ATS on the road this year, while Cal is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival. Look for the Bears to build momentum at the end of the season and to avenge the earlier loss. 9* play |
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03-02-19 | Wofford v. Samford +9 | 85-64 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Terriers are 25-4. Wofford hasn’t lost a game since mid December. I think the mighty visiting side gets classically caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The Samford Bulldogs are 16-14. Samford had won three straight, but the Bulldogs come into this one motivated after three straight losses. The pick: The last time these teams matched up, Samford gave the Terriers all they could handle in a 107-106 Wofford victory. The conditions are right for another competitive affair in my opinion, so grab the points. 9* play |
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03-02-19 | Michigan State -5.5 v. Indiana | 62-63 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: It’s payback time. The Hoosiers won the reverse fixture 79-75 earlier in the year and I think that the visitors avenge that setback. The Spartans come to town off a 77-70 road win over Michigan to improve to 14-3 in league play. Indiana is just 5-12 in the Big Ten, but it looks poised for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after its 75-73 OT win at home over Wisconsin at home last time out. Overall MSU averages 80.1 PPG and it allows 65.8. The Hoosiers average 70.4 PPG and they concede 67.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while MSU is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 following a SU win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Lay the points, expect a beatdown. 9* play |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island +8 v. Dayton | Top | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* play |
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02-28-19 | Xavier +6 v. St. John's | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire. 10* play |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: LA comes in as the “hungrier” team here. The Lakers have lost two straight and they’ll be desperate to start stringing some wins together to get back into the playoff picture. New Orleans comes in off a home loss to Philadelphia and I think it’ll struggle to match pace with this focused Lakers team. Note as well that the Lakers just lost in New Orleans last week when the Pelicans had star player Anthony Davis on the sidelines. This is an immediate revenge scenario for The King and I’m expecting him to step up and deliver the goods. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of six points or less, while LA is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss against an opponent that scored 110 points or more. The table is set for a rout. Lay the points. 9* play |
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02-27-19 | Marquette v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-27-19 | Pacers v. Mavs +1 | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the Pacers get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent here. After winning two straight the Pacers were dumped by a desperate Pistons team last time out. The Mavericks don’t have that same luxury though, as they’ve lost five straight, most recently to the Clippers on Monday. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points. 8* play |
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02-26-19 | Stars +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-4 | Loss | -152 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in desperate for a win. Dallas comes in off a much-needed 4-3 win over Chicago, while the Knights enter having lost three straight. Dallas also plays with revenge here after a 4-2 loss in the only other meeting between the clubs. The Knights obtained Mark Stone from the Senators, but he’s not expected to suit up here. Las Vegas is struggling with offensive consistency and I think that trend continues here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 16-10 (+5.3 units) in its last 26 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Las Vegas is just 2-4 in its last six home games following a three games or more losing streak. I’m laying the very reasonable mid sized price for the extra insurance. Play on the Stars on the puck line. 8* play |
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02-26-19 | Syracuse +12 v. North Carolina | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-26-19 | Celtics +4 v. Raptors | 95-118 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Boston is in desperation mode here after losing four of its last six. The Celtics come in averaging 112.8 PPG and allowing 106.8. Toronto has won eight of its last ten. The Raptors average 114.1 points per game and they allow 108.9. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Boston is the much more motivated/hungry side The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Toronto is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. These teams are evenly matched. I’m grabbing the points. 9* play |
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1 v. Pelicans | Top | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-25-19 | Oklahoma +9 v. Iowa State | Top | 61-78 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State. The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-24-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +8.5 | Top | 118-130 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5. The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-23-19 | South Florida +13.5 v. Houston | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-23-19 | Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +4 | 67-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Notre Dame won’t be lacking for motivation here as its lost eight of its last ten. The Hokies’ two game win streak was snapped last time out in a setback to Virginia on Monday. And with a game vs. No. 1 Duke up next, not only does this set up as a “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead.” The Irish also play with the added incentive of “revenge” after falling 81-66 at VT on January 1st. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 4-9 ATS vs. the conference, while ND is 7-3 ATS in its last ten revering a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Grab the points. 9* play |
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02-23-19 | Florida State +7 v. North Carolina | 59-77 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: UNC enters off a big upset win over Duke, which has propelled it into a three-way tie for first place in the ACC. FSU is 9-4 in league play and in the fourth spot. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Tar Heels though after their win over the Blue Devils. The Seminoles come in on top form as well, having won eight straight after an impressive 77-64 road win over Clemson on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 3-1 ATS already this season as an underdog, while UNC is just 2-5 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games. I’m expecting a “nail biter.” Grab the points. 9* play |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | Top | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112. The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 147-148 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Davidson -2 v. Rhode Island | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Neither team has lived up to expectations this year. Injuries and other issues have led to a 24-34 record for the Wizards and a 27-30 record for the Hornets. Washington lost 129-120 on the road in Toronto most recently, while the Hornets fell 127-89 on the road to Orlando in their final game before the All Star break. The Wizards look impotent though, going into the break with two straight losses and five in seven. Washington averages 113.9 PPG and it allows 116.9. The Hornets won’t be lacking for motivation here though either after dropping two in a row and four of five. But the Hornets still hold the seventh spot in the East and I think that the extra time off couldn’t have come at a better time. Charlotte averages 110.8 PPG and it allows 111.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 8-21 ATS on the road this year, while Charlotte is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 at home. Look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points. 8* play |
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02-21-19 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Tennessee State -6.5 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-21-19 | Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1. The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-20-19 | Louisville v. Syracuse -1 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange. 10* play |
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02-19-19 | Florida State +1 v. Clemson | Top | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-17-19 | Team LeBron v. Team Giannis +6 | 178-164 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is more an “event” than a game. Clearly you have to be careful wagering on these types of events, as for the most part, this contest means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things and it’s going to come down to whichever of the two sides is the more “motivated” in the end. In my opinion, that’s the team Giannis. The pick: I think there are far too many “egos” on LeBron James’ team. James, Anthony Davis, James Harden and Kevin Durant all on the same team looks good on paper, but I doubt the chemistry. The East has harder working players that would I believe can work better together in this event. Throw in the fact that Steph Curry will be wanting to put a dagger in The Kings plans tonight, then I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset. That said however, I’ll still recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 6* play |
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02-17-19 | George Mason v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies. 10* play |
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02-16-19 | Tennessee +3 v. Kentucky | 69-86 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Tennessee got the better of South Carolina 85-73 at home on Wednesday, while Kentucky pulled away for a 73-71 win at home over LSU on Tuesday. Tennessee is 23-1 this year and ranked No. 1 in the country. Kentucky is 20-4 and it’s ranked No. 5. But for me this game comes down to “revenge.” Kentucky got the better of the Vols 77-72 in the SEC Tournament Title game back on March 11th 2018. With a chance to avenge that setback, I think the visitors “come to play” tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss, while Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. 9* play |
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02-16-19 | Oilers +1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oilers come in off a 3-1 road loss in Carolina just last night. Edmonton has now lost nine of its last ten. Clearly the Oilers have many issues this year, but I think the visitors play with extreme desperation in the second game of the back-to-back. The Islanders have been rolling and are one of the surprise teams in the NHL this year, but with three whole nights off before a Western road swing, I think the home side get caught in a “trap” this evening. The pick: Take it for why you will as well, but the Oilers are 6-3 (+2.1 units) in their last nine after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.4 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing. Lay the price, play on Edmonton the “puck line.” 10* play |
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02-16-19 | Oklahoma v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 71-62 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it. 10* play |
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02-16-19 | Southern Illinois v. Indiana State -1 | 79-57 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Southern Illinois comes in off a deflating 72-69 home loss to Drake on Tuesday, while Indiana State enters off a confidence building 87-82 OT road victory over Valparaiso on Wednesday. These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I think that trend carries over. Also note that Indiana State plays with revenge here after it fell 88-73 on the road in the first match-up back on January 30th. From a “situational” stand point, this one sets up fantastically for Indiana State in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Southern Illinois is just 6-7 ATS this season following a conference game, while Indiana State is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 7-3 ATS in its last ten revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points. 9* play |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo v. Toledo +2.5 | Top | 88-82 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are red hot, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Buffalo enters at 21-3 and on two straight victories, while Toledo is 20-4 and in the midst of a five-game win skein. This however is a “revenge” game for Toledo after it was smoked 110-80 at Buffalo back on January 8th. The Rockets have played exceptionally since that setback and with a chance to avenge that pathetic effort, I do indeed expect the home side to step up and answer the call. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toledo is 7-2 ATS In its last nine at home, while Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-14-19 | Murray State v. Austin Peay | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State comes in with plenty of momentum having won three straight, nost recently dispatching the SIU Edwardsville Cougars 86-55 on Saturday. Overall Murray State shot 52.9 percent from the floor and it also won the rebounding battle by 18-11. Ja Morant led the way in the win with 20 points, five boards, six assists, a block and a steal. Overall Murray State averages 82.7 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Austin Peay has won four straight, most recently holding on for a 94-86 victory over Eastern Illinois on Saturday. The Governors average 82.7 PPG, and they allow 71.3. The pick: Take it for what will though, but Murray State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning home records and I think the high-scoring Racers will improve on that trend and take advantage of an Austin Peay defense which ranks 181st in the country. Play on the visitors. 10* Play |
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02-14-19 | Thunder -3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder will look to close the first half with another big win before then concentrating on the All Star game. The Pelicans are in complete free fall mode after their star Anthony Davis announced that he won’t re-sign with the team at the end of the year. The Pelicans have lost five of six and they’re firmly out of the playoff hunt on the season. Davis has only three points in his last game and it would appear as if he and his team have “thrown in the towel.” Russell Westbrook and Paul George though are breaking NBA records almost every other night. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that to continue here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 14-5 ATS already this year off a home victory, while New Orleans is only 13-14 ATS at home. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-14-19 | Belmont v. Tennessee State +12.5 | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the 19-4 Belmont Bruins get caught looking past the lowly Tennessee State Tigers. The Bruins have won seven straight. Tennessee State though won’t be lacking for motivation today after starting 8-16. But Tennessee State has looked better over the last month, as despite losing to Eastern Kentucky in a tight game last time out, it had won its three previous. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Tennessee State improvement. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is still only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 80 or more points in a win over a conference rival, while Tennessee State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog or pick. Grab all the points. 8* play |
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02-14-19 | Houston v. Connecticut +8.5 | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the 23-1 Houston Cougars get caught looking past the 13-11 UConn Huskies. The Cougars have won eight straight and come in a tiny bit complacent in my opinion. The Huskies on the other hand enter razor focused after consecutive setbacks to Memphis and Temple. Clearly on paper, Houston is the better team, but I think the overall situation favors the hungry dog. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is still only 11-12 ATS in its last 23 after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. UConn on the other hand has responded well in this spot by going 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more straight road losses. Grab the points and expect a battle. 8* play |
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02-13-19 | Heat v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is struggling right now and I think it’s ripe for the picking. The Heat have fallen into ninth spot in the East with a 25-30 record. Most recently Miami lost for a sixth time in seven games in its 103-87 setback in Denver. Overall Miami averages 105.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. However over its last ten games Miami has posted just 103.3 points per game over its last ten. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from a 120-104 loss to Houston. The Mavs average 108.4 PPG and they allow 108.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is already only 4-9 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-12-19 | Magic v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 118-88 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Anthony Davis won’t be playing for the Pelicans next year and while he’s also going to be playing limited minutes, he’ll still be a “man on a mission” as he looks to cement his resume before moving on. The Pelicans will be hungry here after their 99-90 loss on the road in Memphis. The Magic on the other hand look poised for a classic letdown in my opinion after their 124-108 road in Atlanta in their most recent action. The Magic average 105.2 PPG and they allow 107.5. The Pelicans average 115.8 PPG and they allow 114.6. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Western Conference, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS setback. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-12-19 | Purdue v. Maryland +2.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Purdue comes to town at 10-2 and in second place in the Conference. Maryland isn’t far behind though at 9-4 and it’ll be out for a little revenge here after it fell in a narrow 62-60 defeat to the Boilermakers in early December. Would anyone fault Purdue having a letdown here after eight straight victories, including one of the “rocking chair” variety in last Saturday’s 81-62 home win over Nebraska? Purdue averages 78.8 PPG and it allows 68.4. The Terps beat Nebraska 60-45 in their most recent action. The Terps lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4, and they easily out rebounded the Huskers 53-38. From a situational stand point, i think this one definitely sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog or pick, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS this season in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-11-19 | Kansas v. TCU -2.5 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jayhawks may have beaten lowly Oklahoma State last time out, but Kansas has still lost four of seven, thanks in large part to a heavily depleted roster. The Jayhawks started four freshman for just the second time in head coach Bill Self’s 16 year tenure in the win over the Cowboys and I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here, facing a Horned Frogs squad coming off one of its biggest victories in over ten years. TCU comes in off two straight victories, including a 92-83 win at Iowa State last time out, a victory over a ranked team on the road for the first time in 21 years! The pick: Clearly the momentum is in favor of the surging Frogs, but I’ll point out as well that they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a victory, while Kansas is still 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, play on TCU. 10* play |
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02-11-19 | Kings +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. The Kings fell 5-4 in OT to the Bruins on the road, while the Capitals lost 5-4 in OT to the Panthers at home. Previous to their loss in Boston though, the Kings had won three straight. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is an astounding 9-2 with a 2.23 GAA lifetime vs. the Capitals. The defending champs come in on the other end of the spectrum as they’ve lost nine of their last 12. Caps’ net minder Braden Holtby is just 1-3 with a 2.51 ERA lifetime vs. the Kings. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five goals or more in its previous contest, while Washington is just 1-5 in its last six after allowing five or more goals. This is a great price for the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the Kings on the puck line. 10* play |
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02-10-19 | Suns +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 117-107 home loss to the Warriors. The Kings look poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after their 102-96 home win over Miami on Friday. These teams have played twice already this year, and they’ve split those games, with the Suns taking the latest 115-111 at home on January 8th. Phoenix is absolutely desperate here to break its slide after 13 straight losses and while I’m not going to predict a SU victory here, I do think that the desperate visiting side can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this year after ten or more consecutive losses, while Sacramento is just 4-7 ATS vs. the division and just 1-2 ATS after playing four straight home games. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. 10* play |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -5.5 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have struggled this year. Both teams comes in on losing streaks. The Yellow Jackets are the better defensive club, but not by much. Georgia Tech’s defense though looked pretty average in its 65-42 loss to Clemson last time out. Notre Dame beat Boston College, but then it lost at Miami, managing just 47 points in the setback. The Hurricanes aren’t the best defensively this year, but playing in their own building is never an easy task. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Irish though in my opinion. The pick: As note that ND is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to six points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two consecutive road games as an underdog, while GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. Lay the point, expect a blowout. 10* play |
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02-09-19 | Duke +2 v. Virginia | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in hot. Duke has won six straight and it already beat Virginia earlier in the year. Since losing that game to Duke, Virginia has won four straight. In a contest which will once again come down to the wire, I’m going to grab the points. The pick: Note that Duke is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is still dealing with injury issues. I think Duke can smell the blood in the water and I look for the visiting side to go in for the kill. Grab the points. 8* play |
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02-09-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Cardinals look poised for a letdown after their very satisfying 72-64 road win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles return him off a road victory over Syracuse. FSU won’t be taking anything for granted here after Louisville took two of three in the season series last year. The Cards average 78.8 PPG and they allow 68. The Seminoles though are 10-1 on their home floor and they average 77 points and allow 68.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Louisville is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a road win vs. a conference rival, while FSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-09-19 | Virginia Tech v. Clemson -2 | 51-59 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Tigers are 4-5 in the ACC and they’ll be very hungry for a win here. VT had won three straight before falling 72-64 to Louisville last time out. The Hokies played just six players in the one with three starters playing 38 or more minutes. The Tigers come in “under the radar.” After losing five of six, Clemson has now three straight over Pitt, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech averages 76.7 PPG and it allows 60.8. Clemson averages 71 PPG and it allow 64.6. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Va Tech is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Clemson is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in its last six in front of the home town crowd. Lay the short points and expect a blowout. 8* play |
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02-07-19 | Spurs v. Blazers -5 | 118-127 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Spurs have lost back-to-back road games, most recently falling in Golden State. The Blazers won’t be taking anything for granted here though after losing to Miami at home last time out. The Spurs were without DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge and they’d go on to fall 141-102. Both players could/should see time here, but I still think that the Spurs will stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers fell flat after three straight victories last time out, but Portland is poised for a bounce back here in my opinion as it’s consistently played much better at home than on the road. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but The Blazers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. the Western Conference. In my professional opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points. 8* play |
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02-07-19 | Iowa v. Indiana -1.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana enters off a big upset win over Michigan State over the weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Iowa also comes in off a big win, downing No. 5 ranked Michigan. I believe though that the Hawkeyes will come in complacent here in this difficult road venues. The Hoosiers don’t have that luxury though, as they lost their first seven league games this year. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up perfectly for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest and only 10-14 ATS in its last 24 following a home win by ten points or more, while Indiana is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite and 3-1 ATS already this season after a victory by six points or less. Lay the points, expect a rout! 10* play |
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02-06-19 | Hornets v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many things. This one is based almost entirely on “common sense.” The Hornets come in off an exhausting and heart-breaking 117-115 loss at home to the Clippers just last night and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here as well. The Mavs on the other hand have won two of their last three after easily dispatching the Cavaliers 111-98 on Saturday. Dallas took the first meeting between the clubs 122-84 on the road in the first matchup between the teams this year and I expect a similar final blowout here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Dallas is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 at home, while Charlotte is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with winning home records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* DALLAS. |
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02-06-19 | Baylor v. Texas -2 | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bears are 6-2. They look poised for a letdown here though after six straight wins in my opinion. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a ridiculous understatement, as Baylor has won six straight. The Longhorns are desperate though as they’ve lost three of their last four, including a tight 65-60 setback at Iowa State most recently. I think that from a “situational” stand point, this one sets up very well for the “hungry” home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, while Texas is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points. 8* TEXAS |
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02-06-19 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -9 | 71-75 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Ole Miss is desperate here as it looks to break a four-game slide. Previous to their slide, the Rebels won 11 of 12. A date vs. the lowly Aggies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though as A&M is just 1-5 in its last six overall. I don’t think the Ole Miss has hit the panic button yet though, as it’s faced some very stiff competition. I think that a little “home cooking” is the difference tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 at home and 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while A&M is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a double-digit home loss. Lay the points, expect a rout. 8* OLE MISS |
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02-06-19 | Connecticut v. Temple -3.5 | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Huskies come in complacent here in my opinion after going 3-1 in their last four, including a victory over ECU last time out. The Owls clearly the hungrier side, having lost three of their last five. Temple though did get back on the winning track by beating Tulane this past Friday and I look for the Owls to now build off that effort. The Huskies have been the beneficiary of a weak schedule of late, and I think they’ll predictably stumble here in the “step up” in competition and in this difficult road venue. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Temple. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UConn is still just 3-4 ATS this year as an underdog and only 12-17 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Temple is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of six points or less or pick and 3-1 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 8* TEMPLE |
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02-05-19 | Pistons v. Knicks +4 | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is based entirely around the fact that Detroit played and won big at home just last night over the Nuggets. The Pistons were desperate for a victory, but after that emotional come from behind win, I think a predictable letdown is inevitable in the second game of the back to back facing an equally as hungry/desperate Knicks side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 14-22 ATS in its last 36 when playing on back-to-back days, while New York is 20-13 ATS this year trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. |
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02-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs +12.5 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is set for a competitive battle in this one in my opinion. The Cavaliers are making trade moves, but they’ll be eager to get off the schneid and try to pull off an outright victory at home after suffering a 111-98 loss at home to the Mavericks on Saturday. Not surprisingly this is a double revenge game for the Cavs after dropping both in the season series this year, including a 123-103 road setback in Boston on January 23rd. Note though that the C’s will be without the services of star offensive player Kyrie Irving in this one. The pick: Additionally note that Boston is just 9-15-1 ATS on the road this year. Cleveland on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days of rest. Grab the points, expect a war. |
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02-05-19 | Lakers v. Pacers +3.5 | 94-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: LA comes to town off a 115-101 road loss to Golden State. The Pacers are in action last night in New Orleans and after pulling off the 109-107 victory, I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The Pacers certainly won’t be lacking for motivation facing former team-mate Lance Stephenson. The Pacers are very familiar with “The King” as well of course. But LA is going through inner turmoil of its own. The Lakers are trying to pull off a blockbuster trade with the Pelicans for Anthony Davis and have offered half the team in return. The players had an altercation with head coach Luke Walton in the loss to the Warriors and one has to wonder where the Lakers’ heads are at collectively in this one? Despite having played just last night, I think this one sets up great for an outright home side victory. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 5-6 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Indiana is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less and 6-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days. Grab the points. |
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02-05-19 | Bowling Green -6 v. Western Michigan | Top | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Bowling Green dismantled WMU 79-48 at the Stroh Center back on January 19th and I think a similar final combined outcome is in the cards tonight as well. Bowling Green is rolling, going 11-1 in its last 12, it enters off its biggest win in a decade, pulling away for a victory over then No. 18 Buffalo last Friday. The Falcons know they can’t come in complacent here against a WMU team which is 0-8 in league play: “We don’t want to get to that place where we’re complacent and we think [winning] is just going to happen,” BG head coach Michael Huger noted. “You can’t play up or down to the opponent–you’ve got to play the same way every single time. It’s easier said than done. I can say it, but now we’ve got to go out and do it, and that’s the hard part.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -115 | 197 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. 10* play |
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02-02-19 | Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Illinois State | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ramblers have won five of their last six and I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Illinois State has won two in a row and four of its last five, but the Loyola Chicago has won nine of its last 12 on the road. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, but the difference comes in the numbers. The pick: Take it for what you will ,but Illinois State is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games in this series, while Loyola Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. the conference and 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it. Play on Loyola Chicago. 9* play |
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02-02-19 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1 | Top | 107-106 | Push | 0 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for Minnesota after it fell 103-101 in Denver back in November. The Nuggets though come in “dog tired” in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, pulling away for a big 136-122 home win over Houston on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of the Wolves tonight. The pick: It also sets up nicely for the Wolves from a trend based stand point, as note that Denver is just 5-8 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Minnesota is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog. I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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02-02-19 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -1.5 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 15-5 and the Ole Miss Rebels are 14-6. I can’t understate how important I think that the home floor advantage will be in this particular matchup. The Rebels upset Mississippi State 81-77 on the road on January 12th and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards on their home floor. The Rebels are 4-3 in league play and the Bulldogs are 3-4. Mississippi State comes in off a deflating 83-79 road defeat to Alabama and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up the same energy in this difficult arena. The Bulldogs have regressed defensively as well since the start of conference play. Overall they’re allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions, but since the start of league action that’s ballooned to 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Ole Miss has lost three straight and it comes in off a tough 90-86 road loss to Florida, but as stated off the top, I think a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just just 3-5 ATS in its last eight revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Ole Miss is already 10-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Lay the short points. 10* play |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas has been a lot better on the road than at home this year and it had lost four of six previous to last night’s big win in The Big Apple. Can anyone say letdown spot? Detroit on the other hand has lost back-to-back games, including to these very Mavs just last week. From a situational stand point, this one is definitely being handed to the home side on a “silver platter” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after three consecutive non-conference games and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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01-30-19 | UCLA -4.5 v. Washington State | Top | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* play |
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01-29-19 | Pelicans +10 v. Rockets | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have to adjust to the idea that Anthony Davis will soon be leaving the team. He won’t be suiting up here. It’s going to be all hands on deck though as New Orleans tries to gain an identity moving forward. In this contest anyways, I think the Pelicans rally and at the very least, keep this one competitive against a Rockets team which I predict will get caught looking past its lowly opponent. The Pelicans’ have lost three straight, but Jrue Holiday looked decent after posting 29 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. He’ll be leaned upon heavily moving forward. The Rockets continue to win, but it was anything but easy in their latest 103-98 victory over the lowly Magic at home. I think James Harden and company are starting to run out of gas and there’s no question in my mind that this one actually sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 3-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC PELICANS |
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01-29-19 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points. 10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio. |
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01-28-19 | Nets +10 v. Celtics | Top | 104-112 | Win | 107 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Am I calling for an outright upset? I’m not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive war than what this spread would suggest. Boston comes in off a loss to the red hot Warriors and now face one of the league’s other white hot teams in the Nets, who come to town on a six-game win streak, including a victory over the Knicks on Friday. The Celtics didn’t manage a win over the Warriors and I think a letdown here is imminent after that “close call.” From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the visitors in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Brooklyn is already 9-5 ATS this year off a home win and 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a division rival, while Boston is just 18-25 ATS in its last 43 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the end. 10* play |
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01-26-19 | Colorado v. Stanford -2 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: After its 68-59 road win over Cal on Thursday, I think Colorado will stumble in this difficult road venue. The Cardinal are looking to rebound as well after their 70-66 home loss to Utah on Thursday. To say this is a “revenge” game as well for Stanford would be a bit of an understatement, as Colorado has won nine straight in the series. But the Buffs had dropped two in a row and four of five before their latest victory and I believe an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent. The Buffs average 76.2 PPG and they allow 69. The Cardinal won’t be taking anything for granted here as they’ve lost five of their last seven. Overall Stanford averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 73.4. The pick: But note that Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by six points or less. Colorado on the other hand is just 8-23 ATS in its last 31 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the short points on the hungry and revenge minded home side. 8* play |
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01-26-19 | LSU v. Missouri +5 | 86-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: LSU has won 15 of 18, but I think it’ll have its hands full today vs. a Missouri team which enters off a loss to Arkansas. LSU has won eight straight and I think it comes in complacent. Overall LSU averages 83.1 PPG and it allows 71.9. Tremont Waters leads LSU with 14.2 points and 6.1 assists per night. Missouri averages 67.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other and by allowing just 65.6. Keep your eyes on the home side’s Jordan Geist, who leads the way with 13.3 points and 4.2 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will, but LSU is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after a win by ten points or more, while Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home underdog of six points or less or pick. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle. 8* play |
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01-26-19 | Iowa State v. Ole Miss | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here. 10* play |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs +8.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: Miami enters off a 111-99 home loss to the Clippers on Wednesday, while Cleveland returns home off a 123-103 road loss in Boston on Wednesday. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Cavaliers play with the added incentive of “double revenge,” having dropped both previous meetings with the Heat, including a 117-92 setback in Miami in the most recent at the start of the year. Clearly the Heat are the better team, but the Cavs won’t be rolling over here as they look to break their own string of futility (lost 17 of 18.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is just 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. I’m grabbing the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think the home side comes in a tiny bit complacent here and I look for the under-manned, but hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive down the stretch. The Knicks were competitive in a 114-110 loss at home to Houston on Wednesday, a game which saw James Harden drop 61 points on them. The Nets come in off a satisfying 114-110 home win over Orlando on Wednesday. Brooklyn has taken two of three between the clubs this year, so the revenge factor comes into play here as well. The pick: Note that the Knicks are 9-4 ATS this year after a non-conference game, while Brooklyn is still just 14-15 ATS in its last 29 as a home favorite. I think the conditions are correct for a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -4 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Wizards have been playing a lot better of late, even without star John Wall, but they come into his one off a home loss to Golden State just last night. I have a hard time seeing the Wizards “getting up” for this one. The Magic will look to take advantage. These teams have already split two games this year, with each winning on its own floor. The Magic won 117-108 in their home victory and I believe we’ll see a similar final score discrepancy here as well. From a situational stand point I do indeed feel this one sets up fantastically for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Orlando is a solid 4-1-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Washington is just 17-36 ATS in its last 53 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points. 10* Brown |
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01-24-19 | Belmont v. Murray State -4.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight. The Pelicans come in “under the radar” in my opinion. The Thunder enter off a 123-114 home win over the Blazers, but with two nights off before a game at home vs. the Bucks on Sunday night, I expect the home side to get caught looking past its opponent tonight. And who could fault the Thunder in doing so? They’re playing at home and facing a team playing without its superstar (Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is out) and coming off a game just last night. The pick: New Orleans though can put points on the board with the best of them. Note that the Pelicans average 117.1 PPG, while the Thunder average 114. Take it for what you will as well but the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS this year as a home fav in the 6.5 to 12 points range. A great “situational” play on the Pelicans. 10* play |
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01-23-19 | Hornets v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of hungry non-conference teams collide on Wednesday night and I don’t think that the “home court advantage” can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Memphis comes in as the “hungrier” team here as it looks to snap a six-game losing streak. The Hornets look poised for a letdown though in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Charlotte averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Grizzlies averages only 100.6 PPG, while allowing 103.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though but memphis 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Charlotte is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest. I like Memphis to finally get off the schneid in this favorable home matchup. 10* play |
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01-22-19 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -1 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Rockets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-121 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? Clearly it’s not out of the question. I’m expecting a battle though obviously and am going to grab the points in the end. The Rockets come in off a 138-134 OT win over LA on Saturday, while Philly lost 117-115 to OKC in its most recent action. Houston is 6-4 overall in its last ten and it averages 112.6 PPG and it allows 110.5. But after their three-game win streak was snapped in dramatic fashion last time out, I think the 76ers are ripe for another letdown here. Overall Philadelphia averages 115.4 PPG and it allows 112.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the 76ers are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Southwest division, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a war. 10* play |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -100 | 151 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 10* Chiefs. |
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01-19-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -10 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 10* St Marys |
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01-19-19 | Mavs v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* PACERS |
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