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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-16 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 211 | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and San Antonio at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets current road trip has produced a number of high-scoring results but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in San Antonio. If there ever were a spot for the Spurs to tighten things up, this is it, as they’re coming off rare back-to-back home losses at the AT&T Center. Tony Parker is expected to return for the Spurs on Wednesday and while that should provide a boost to the offense, how much of one remains to be seen after he missed the last three games. Meanwhile, while the Rockets are known for their offensive prowess, they’ve played some solid defense for stretches during their current five-game road trip as well. They should benefit from an off night on Tuesday and come into this game relatively fresh. The last time these two teams met they combined to score just 198 points in a 10-point Spurs victory last February. To put it simply, I feel this total is too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-16 | Blackhawks v. Blues UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in this early season showdown between the Blackhawks and Blues on Wednesday night. Chicago is rolling along right now, but will certainly face a tough challenge in this one, having dropped its first matchup with St. Louis this year by a 5-2 score, on home ice no less. The Blues are a perfect 2-0 on their current homestand but they've faced the Blue Jackets and Avalanche. They'll be in for a tougher game here, or at least one would think. The Blackhawks have received excellent goaltending from Corey Crawford again this season and particularly of late. Meanwhile, I believe Blues goaltender Jake Allen's best days are still in front of him this season. After seeing a high-scoring affair between these two back in October, look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns OVER 48.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' win over the Eagles last Sunday night. There's little reason to jump off that train here in this matchup. The Cowboys should have their way with the Browns defense. They'll likely need to keep it up for four quarters however, as I look for the Browns to find some success offensively in this one, and they'll certainly be highly-motivated. Cleveland will welcome QB Cody Kessler back to the fold. They'll also bring back WR Corey Coleman. If nothing else, that should provide an emotional boost. I don't believe the Browns will shy away from a shootout with the Cowboys here. We're dealing with a relatively high total, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-16 | Arizona v. Washington State OVER 65 | Top | 7-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Pullman on Saturday afternoon. We played the ‘over’ in Arizona’s blowout loss at home against Stanford last Saturday night, and were never really all that close to cashing that ticket. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here, however. Arizona did welcome Brandon Dawkins and Anu Solomon back from injuries last Saturday, but both showed some rust. In fact, Solomon threw only three passes. Clearly rust was a factor for both quarterbacks. I’m expecting a far more positive performance from the Wildcats as a whole on Saturday. On the flip side, I don’t see the Wildcats slowing down an underrated Cougars offense. Mike Leach has his offense humming once again, having scored at least 35 points in five of the last six games. There’s little reason to anticipate the Cougars slowing down against a very beatable Wildcats defense. In order to topple this total we’re going to need to get plenty of help from Arizona as well, but Washington State has proven vulnerable defensively, and I don’t see that being an issue. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-16 | Oregon State v. Stanford OVER 42 | 15-26 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oregon State and Stanford at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at The Farm on Saturday afternoon. Last year, Stanford rolled to a 42-24 victory over Oregon State early in the season. We’re dealing with a much lower posted total this time around, largely due to the Beavers struggles and Stanford’s offensive ineptitude. However, the Cardinal did respond last week, scoring 34 points in a blowout win at Arizona. Not surprisingly, it was Stanford’s ground game that led the way, and I expect more of the same against Oregon State. The Beavers battled hard, but ultimately fell by a 35-31 score at home against Washington State last Saturday. It was a step in the right direction for the offense after being held to just 31 points combined in their previous two games. This play is more about the number we’re working with than anything else, that and the belief that Stanford is a better offensive team than it has shown, and that the Beavers won’t roll over in this tough matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-16 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5 | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Montreal and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While I would have liked to have had a 5.5 to work with in terms of the total in this matchup, I still see value playing the ‘under’ at the current number. Carey Price won’t be between the pipes for the Habs on Friday, giving way to Al Montoya, who has more than proved himself as a capable backup in the early going this season. Montoya is 3-0-1 with a 1.47 goals against average through four games. Of course, the Blue Jackets are strong in goal as well with Sergei Bobrovsky, who is also off to a solid start, having posted a 2.02 GAA and .941 save percentage. The Habs are coming off a sloppy performance against the Canucks two nights ago. They were essentially bailed out by Carey Price in that one. Look for them to play a far more responsible defensive game in this one, knowing that the Blue Jackets are playing well, and own a strong home ice advantage. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-16 | Blues v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Thursday night. The Blues aren't scoring right now. They've found the back of the net only three times in their last four games combined and they've been held to a goal or less in six of their last seven contests overall. Coming off an ugly 5-0 loss in New York on Tuesday (we won with the Rangets on that night), I look for them to tighten things up considerably in Dallas. The Stars have also been struggling offensively and that shouldn't come as a big surprise as they're missing a number of key cogs due to injury. Dallas has scored a grand total of three goals over its last three games. With both teams reeling and desperate to get back on track, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-16 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 210 | 122-128 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Cleveland on Thursday night. Both of these teams have been involved in some high-scoring affairs this season but I look for a different story to unfold as they meet for the first time on Thursday night. The oddsmakers and the betting public alike seem to have a lot of faith in the Celtics retooled squad, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. While I like the team as well, I do believe we'll see some growing pains, particularly in spots like this (back-to-back after last night's home game against Chicago). The Cavs lit up the Q on Tuesday night as they outlasted the Rockets by a 128-120 score. That one obviously sailed over the total but that came on the heels of three consecutive 'under' results to open the season. Only one of three meetings in this series last season eclipsed the total we're dealing with on Thursday. I expect to see the Cavs look to make a statement, and that should be on the shoulders of their defense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards OVER 203 | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Washington on Wednesday night. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors treat this as a business trip before returning home to host the Heat on Friday night. With that being said, I believe they'll have their hands full with the Wizards. Toronto has only been held in check by one of three opponents so far this season - that being the Cleveland Cavaliers. I do expect to see the Raptors get loose offensively after a bit of a sluggish, albeit a 105-point effort, on Monday night. The Wizards put up 100 points in regulation time in Memphis last time out, but couldn't hit anything in overtime, ultimately falling by a 112-103 score. The Raptors suffered a letdown of sorts on Monday night at home against Denver, but even on an off night shooting, they still persevered and managed to score 105. I expect to see these two familiar foes trade scores all night long as this total proves too low, thanks in large part to four straight 'under' results in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-16 | Magic v. 76ers OVER 197.5 | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I think the fact that both of these teams enter this game sporting winless records helps to keep the total in check. Keep in mind, the last two meetings in this series produced a whopping 239 and 246 total points. While I'm not anticipating that type of track meet here, I do believe both offenses will produce enough to push the final score 'over' the total. Orlando hasn't faced an easy schedule so far, opening with a home date against the Heat before hitting the road to face the Pistons and Cavs. Here, the Magic will take a step down in class to be certain and I look for them to build off of a 99-point performance against the Cavs. The 76ers put up 97 points in their home opener against the Thunder but couldn't get anything going in a 104-72 loss to the Hawks last time out. I do look for them to respond in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Chicago on Monday. When you think of the Vikings, the first thing that probably comes to mind is defense. And rightfully so. However, I look for the Vikes offense to bust out against the Bears in Chicago on Monday. Minnesota turned in its worst offensive showing of the season by far last week in Philadelphia. Sloppy play ruled that contest but I'm anticipating a much sharper effort from the well-coached Vikes in this division matchup. The Bears will start Jay Cutler on Monday night, and he'll obviously have no shortage of motivation. I do feel that Cutler's presence makes the Bears offense better, even if most of the Chicago faithful believe otherwise. The Vikings defense has been outstanding this season but did show some chinks in its armor last week and is dealing with some key injuries. Keep in mind, the two meetings in this series last year produced 43 and 55 points. The 'under' is still 4-1 in the last five matchups between these two NFC North foes but that's certainly been factored into this number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets UNDER 212 | 118-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Monday. Both the Bulls and Nets have been involved in some high-scoring affairs so far this season, so we're dealing with a fairly steep total in this matchup. I don't believe it's warranted. Don't count on a peak offensive performance from the Bulls following Saturday's strong showing, in which they put up 118 points in a blowout win over the Pacers at home. Simply put, I'm not sure that this team is quite as good offensively as it has shown through two games. The Nets have seen some high posted totals so far this season and they've recorded a 2-1 o/u mark. Like the Bulls, I'm not expecting a strong offensive performance in this, perhaps their toughest matchup to date. Note that Brooklyn's lone previous home game totaled only 197 points against the Pacers. The 'over' went a perfect 3-0 in this series last season, obviously contributing to the high total in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles put up 21 points in last week's big win over the Vikings at home, even if it had little to do with the offense. Rookie QB Carson Wentz struggled once again but did just enough to guide his team to victory. I expect a better showing from Wentz here as he'll obviously be up for this matchup with the rival Cowboys - the first time he's faced them in his NFL career. Early in this game at least, I'm confident he'll make some big plays for the Eagles offense. On the flip side, I'm looking for another big performance from the Cowboys offense. Tony Romo returned to practice this week and could be close to returning but that should only fuel the fire of rookie QB Dak Prescott. All indications are that Prescott isn't feeling the pressure of playing in front of a proven QB like Romo. And it doesn't hurt that the Cowboys will likely have WR Dez Bryant back on the field, not to mention arguably the best running back in football right now, rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The 'under' has cashed in the Cowboys last three games but I don't see that trend continuing here. In fact, it works in our favor as it helps to keep this total down, as does the fact that the Eagles are coming off a low-scoring affair against defensive-minded Minnesota. The last time the Eagles and Cowboys hooked up they combined to score 60 points in an overtime affair last November. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are coming off a disappointing 6-6 tie in Arizona last Sunday night, but I look for them to bust out offensively as the scene shifts to the SuperDome in New Orleans on Sunday. Everyone is quick to refer to the Seahawks as a 'struggling' offensive team, even though they had produced at least 26 points in three straight games prior to last week's contest. That's not to mention the fact that most see the Seahawks as an elite defensive squad. But this is a defense that is dealign with some key injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett sidelined. New Orleans had some big plays, but was ultimately held down by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday. With that being said, outside of a no-show against the Giants in New York, the Saints offense has been rolling all season. They'll certainly be up for this matchup with perennial NFC contenders the Seahawks. When these two teams last met in the playoffs in 2014 they combined to score just 38 points. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-16 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 49.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -119 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Arizona on Saturday night. Stanford is coming off an ugly 10-5 home loss against Colorado last week. In fact, the Cardinal offense has been a big disappointment all season. This does look like a fine 'get right' opportunity, however. After being held to 17 points or less in four straight games against tough defensive opponents, I look for the Cardinal to bust out here. Arizona hasn't stopped anyone this season. The Wildcats have allowed at least 35 points in four straight games. Arizona is expected to have both Anu Solomon and Brandon Dawkins back at its disposal on Saturday, which is obviously key after the Wildcats struggled at the quarterback position last time out against USC. While the Wildcats offense has been on the decline, Arizona has showed plenty of spark this season, scoring at least 28 points on three different occasions. The last two meetings in this series reached 102 and 72 points (the first of those matchups came in 2012 with the latter coming last season). I believe we're dealing with a reasonable number here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday. San Diego State crushed Utah State in last year's meeting - a loss the Aggies certainly haven't forgotten as it sent them into a tailspin that some would say they still haven't recovered from. Here, Utah State will be looking to exact some revenge but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that with standout RB Devonte Mays still not back at full strength. I do expect the Aggies to hang in a little tougher against the nation's leading rusher Donnell Pumphrey. They were ripped to shreds by the RB in last year's matchup, but that was a banged-up Aggies defense. They're at close to full strength now and I'm confident they'll do a better job of at least slowing Pumphrey down. On the flip side, the Aztecs are down a couple of key cogs in their secondary but I'm not sure the Aggies offense can take advantage. Utah State has struggled to complete passes with any consistency since losing RB Mays. It should be another grind on Friday night against a quality Aztecs defense. The 'under' has cashed in San Diego State's last three games. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 2-0 in the Aggies last two contests. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-16 | California v. USC UNDER 75.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We missed with the 'under' in Cal's most recent game - a wild 52-49 overtime win over Oregon last week. We did deserve a better fate in that one but were ultimately foiled by overtime. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well as I have a lot of respect for the Trojans defense. If anyone is going to slow down the rolling Cal offense, it's USC. The Trojans got steamrolled by Alabama back in the opening week of the season but since then they've tightened up in spite of a tough schedule. Over their last two games, the Trojans gave up just 31 points against Colorado and Arizona. The 'under' has cashed in each of their last three and five of their last six games overall. Cal is capable of playing some defense and I see this as a favorable matchup against a relatively inconsistent USC offense. Note that Trojans standout WR JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to go at less than 100% due to an ailing back. Last year's meeting between these two teams totaled just 48 points. Two years ago they reached 68 points. The oddsmakers can't help but hang out a high total here based on Cal's recent results. I'm just not sure such a high number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-16 | Capitals v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Edmonton at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Edmonton on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of the Oilers last three games. That may come as a surprise to some as Edmonton is known for its stable of young stars and its high-flying attack. However, this is a team that wants and needs to play a more responsible brand of defensive hockey if it wants to work its way into the playoff picture in the Western Conference this season. So far, so good in that regard. The Capitals have seen the 'over' cash in their last two contests, with both of those games just creeping over the number with six total goals. They had posted an 0-2-1 o/u mark in their first three games this season. Like the Oilers, the Caps are known for their offense led by Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Backstrom, but they're also one of the best in the league defensively, not to mention between the pipes with Braden Holtby. The last meeting between these two teams came last November - a game that finished 1-0 in favor of the Caps. That's not to say we haven't seen some barn-burners between the Caps and Oilers in recent years, but here I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night. The last time these two pitchers squared off, we saw a posted total of 7.5. That game reached only three runs as the Cubs prevailed by a 2-1 score. I'm anticipating another low-scoring result here. Jon Lester is pitching as well as he has all season for the Cubs, allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 innings of work. He's certainly familiar with pitching here in Cleveland from his days with the Red Sox. Note that he's allowed just three earned runs in his last four starts here. Corey Kluber is the Indians' unquestioned ace and he'll be asked to shoulder a lot of the load here in the World Series. He's more than capable of doing just that. He has allowed just two earned runs in three playoff starts so far, spanning 18 1/3 innings of work. Kluber struck out 11, allowing just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings in his only previous start against the Cubs - that coming last season. While I do expect to see some clutch hitting from both teams in this series, I believe we'll see pitching at the forefront in Tuesday's opener. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. The Bucs are coming off their bye week, which came on the heels of a big 17-14 road win over the Panthers on Monday Night Football. Yes, the Panthers were without Cam Newton in that game, but credit the Bucs for allowing just two touchdowns in a tough road matchup. Tampa Bay draws another favorable matchup here as the 49ers continue to struggle. San Francisco will turn to Colin Kaepernick under center once again. He showed plenty of rust in a shaky performance last week in Buffalo but should be sharper against the Bucs. I'm still not sure that equates to a strong offensive showing from the Niners, however. I still don't believe we've seen the Bucs best defense, but they have shown improvement as the season has progressed and the bye week shouldn't hurt their cause. Offensively, Tampa Bay is shorthanded, down its top two running backs on the depth chart and now also without Vincent Jackson. Even though Jackson is no longer the focal point of the offense, he has still served as a security blanket for QB Jameis Winston at times. The 49ers defense has been absolutely ripped by the run this season but after a complete no-show in Buffalo last week, I do look for them to show some pride here. These two teams have met three times since 2010 and all three totals closed at 41. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs last week. The Bills have seen the 'over' cash in their last two games, scoring 30 and 45 points in wins over the Rams and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense got rolling against the Steelers last week, putting up 30 points. But make no mistake, this is still a plodding Miami offense as far as I'm concerned. RB Jay Ajayi had a breakout performance last week and essentially carried the offense. The Fins are still content to dink and dunk their way down the field with Ryan Tannehill under center. I'm not convinced the Bills are quite as good offensively as they've shown in the last couple of weeks. They'll face a Fins squad that will certainly have its guard up after allowing a whopping 74 points in two meetings - both losses - last year. Buffalo has played three road games this season, and two of those totaled 20 points or less. Note that prior to last season, the 'under' had cashed in five of the previous six meetings in this series. Expect a return to form here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 84.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oklahoma and Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Red Raiders laid an egg at home against West Virginia last week. That worked out just fine for our purposes as the game stayed well ‘under’ the posted total. I won’t hesitate to switch gears this week, however, and back the ‘over’ as Oklahoma rolls into Lubbock. The Sooners are led by former Red Raider QB Baker Mayfield and you can be sure he’ll be looking to stick it to his old team on Saturday night after leaving Texas Tech on less than pleasant terms. Oklahoma can score points in bunches against the best of them, and they certainly won’t be facing an elite level defense in Lubbock on Saturday. Last week, the Sooners rolled to a rather ho-hum 38-17 home win over Kansas State – the first time since the third week of the season against Ohio State that they were held to fewer than 45 points. The biggest concern here is whether Texas Tech will be able to get its offense going again after last week’s stinker. I do think the Red Raiders will be jacked up for this showdown – treating it as one of their biggest games of the season – as they should. Keep in mind, this is one of the most prolific offenses in college football in a big bounce-back spot. Even against a big, athletic Sooners defense I’m confident the home side will be able to help this total along, and ‘over’ the lofty number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-16 | Lightning v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Ottawa on Saturday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Senators first four games this season. The Sens were one of the league's highest scoring teams last season and we've seen a similar story unfold so far this year. However, I look for them to face some resistance here having scored two goals or less in six of their last seven games against the Lightning. Tampa Bay was shutout against the Avalanche on Thursday night, a surprising result given its hot start. The Lightning had scored 12 goals in regulation time in their first three contests. They'll be facing their first road test of the young season on Saturday. Goal scoring is up across the league so far this season and that's kept a lot of totals at 5.5 that might otherwise be set at 5. That may not be the case in this particular matchup but I do believe we're getting considerable value to back the 'under' in what should be a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia OVER 65 | 10-34 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Afternoon Total Dominator. My selection is on the ‘over’ between TCU and West Virginia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Horned Frogs and Mountaineers do battle in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon. TCU has long been known for its dominant defense but this year we’ve seen the offense step into the spotlight. The Horned Frogs started off the season by scoring 138 points in their first three games and only once have they been held to fewer than 33 points. That happened last week as they were nearly upset on the road against a bad Kansas squad, ultimately winning by a single point as a four-touchdown favorite. I’m confident we’ll see TCU return to form on offense this Saturday, as it will need to against a much tougher challenge. West Virginia rolled to a 48-17 win at Texas Tech last Saturday (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). The Mountaineers remain undefeated on the season but have benefited from playing four of their first five games at home. The WVU defense has held up reasonably well but it’s not as if it has faced a monumental challenge in terms of schedule. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers did allow 32 points against BYU in perhaps their toughest test to date. They come into this one having given up just 33 points in their last two contests but I believe they’ll have their hands full against a Frogs offense that can beat you through the air or on the ground. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-16 | Oregon v. California UNDER 89 | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and California at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won supporting the 'over' in games involving Cal earlier this season - in fact, each of the Bears first four games went 'over' the total. However, they've posted a 1-1 o/u mark over their last two contests, with their most recent game - an 'over' result - buoyed by overtime. Oregon is off to a truly disappointing 2-4 start, including four consecutive losses entering this game. The Ducks have had an extra week off between games and I'm confident we'll see them turn in an inspired effort on Friday. Keep in mind, this is a team that allowed 70 points in an embarrassing loss at home against Washington last time out. Cal has proven capable of playing some defense this season. Remember, two games back the Bears held a quality Utah squad to only 23 points in a victory. Having lost seven straight meetings against Oregon, the Bears will certainly have their guard up in this one. Two of the last three meetings in this series have played 'under' the total. The game that went 'over' reached a whopping 100 points but also featured two current NFL quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff. Cal owns the slightly better record in this matchup but both teams have been rather flaky in the early going this season. Both teams are capable of scoring in bunches and we could very well see a shootout on Friday night. But I simply feel this total has been set too high given the inconsistencies we've seen from both squads. Both teams are loaded with athletes, not only offensively, but defensively as well. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-16 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Columbus on Friday night. Scoring is up around the league so far this season and while we've seen somewhat of an adjustment in the totals, there's only so high the oddsmakers are willing to set them at this early stage of the campaign. The Blackhawks are rolling right now having scored 12 goals in registering back-to-back victories. They didn't fare well in their lone previous road game, suffering a 3-2 loss in Nashville but I look for them to fare better here. The Blue Jackets are off back-to-back losses, scoring only five goals in the process. I'm confident they'll respond favorably back at home on Friday, however. The problem is, in those two losses, Columbus allowed a whopping 75 shots on goal. They've been idle for the last days, but I'm not sure that time off will help them solve their defensive issues. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks power play has been clicking, but their penalty kill has struggled. That should open the door for the Blue Jackets to do their part to help this one 'over' the total on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 46 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Green Bay on Thursday night. We've heard a lot of talk this week about just how good Bears QB Brian Hoyer has been in place of an injured Jay Cutler. Yes, Hoyer has done well to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games since taking over but the fact is, Chicago doesn't have many points to show for it, and certainly doesn't have many wins - only one on the campaign so far. Here, most expect Hoyer to light up an undermanned Packers defense that is dealing with a number of key injuries, but I'm not so easily convinced. Green Bay still has an excellent front seven, not to mention a strong tandem of Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at safety. Look for the Packers young fill-in corners to step up in this matchup as well, knowing a victory is of the utmost importance following last week's ugly loss to Dallas. Offensively, something just doesn't seem right with the Packers. Jordy Nelson is back but doesn't look like the same dominant force he was two years ago. Randall Cobb is banged-up and still hasn't regained his 2014 form either. Meanwhile, the backfield has been ravaged by injuries, forcing the Pack to bring in former Chief Knile Davis this week. The 'under' is now 14-6 in the Packers last 20 games overall, including a 3-2 mark so far this season. The Bears have yet to post consecutive 'under' results this season, but off Sunday's low-scoring 17-16 setback at home against the Jaguars, I look for that to happen here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-16 | Avalanche v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Tampa on Thursday night. The Avalanche are off to a solid start, but they hit a speed bump last time out, suffering a 3-0 loss in Washington. I look for them to bounce back with a strong offensive showing here but I'm not sure it will be enough to secure a victory. That's because the Lightning are one of the most complete offensive squads in the entire league, and they're rolling right now, off to a perfect 3-0 start and staying home for a fourth consecutive game here. These two teams met twice last season, and both contests were relatively low-scoring, totaling only three and four goals. That's contributing to the generous price we're being offered to back the over 5.5 goals in this spot. Scoring is way up in the NHL so far this season and it's a trend I see continuing for at least another week or so. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-16 | Red Wings v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at MSG on Wednesday night. The Rangers are coming off a wild 7-4 victory over the Sharks on Monday night while the Red Wings skated to a 5-1 win in their final home opener at Joe Louis Arena. In general, scoring has been way up across the league in the early stages of the season but I don't see that trend continuing here. This is the first time we've seen a posted total north of five in this particular matchup since March of 2015. Note that the Red Wings and Rangers have been involved in plenty of tight affairs in recent years - in fact, each of their last six matchups have been settled by a single goal with four of those needing overtime to decide the outcome. Each of their last five meetings have totaled five goals or less. Look for both teams to tighten things up off relatively high-scoring affairs two nights ago. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10* MLB ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in each of the first two games of this series but I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Toronto on Monday night. The Jays can hit. We know that. They haven't in this series though, largely due to the tough pitching they've run into. Monday should be a different story as they go up against Trevor Bauer of the Indians. Bauer has gone just 12-8 with an ERA well north of four this season. He's pitched well in just one of three career starts against the Jays, allowing 13 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. He didn't even last through the fifth inning in his lone start against the Red Sox during the ALDS. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He's been wildly inconsistent this year and checks in with a 4.50 ERA at home this season. Note that his home starts are averaging right around 9.9 total runs per contest. Both of these teams rode opportunistic hitting to ALDS victories but we haven't seen either bust out at the dish so far in this series. It's coming though. I believe we'll see it on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
10* NFL Sunday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Houston at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a high total in this matchup given how inconsistent these two teams have been this season but I'm still willing to play the 'over'. The Colts are coming off a much needed win last week against the Bears and despite how poorly they've played, they're just a game back of the AFC South leading Texans. As much as they would probably prefer not to get involved in another shootout, I'm not sure it's something they can avoid given their personnel at hand. Note that the 'over' has cashed in four of the Colts first five games this season. Houston was a no show last Sunday in Minnesota but should respond favorably in this matchup. Despite scoring just a combined 40 points in their last two games, the 'over' is still 2-0 in the Texans last two contests. I don't expect either offense to face much resistance in this matchup. Last year's two meetings between these two teams were relatively low-scoring but that only helps our cause with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-16 | Stars v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Colorado on Saturday. The Avs should be one of the more exciting teams in the league this season, even if that comes at the expense of sound defensive play. Losing Patrick Roy behind the bench was a shock in the offseason, but I'm not sure it was the worst thing for this young group that has been struggling to bust out since enjoying such success a couple of years ago. The Stars are fresh off a 4-2 win over the Ducks to open the season, even though they were outshot badly in that game. I expect to see Dallas involved in a lot of high-scoring affairs this season - it was fortunate that Antti Niemi turned in a solid performance between the pipes in Thursday's opener. The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series and that's a trend I see continuing on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Saturday. The Jays will turn to J.A. Happ, who has essentially been their stopper all season long. I'm confident he'll shake off what was a bit of a shaky performance against the Rangers last Friday. He did get the win in that game, but constantly worked himself into and out of trouble. Cleveland will counter with Josh Tomlin who had his start moved up a game after Trevor Bauer suffered a freak finger injury. Tomlin pitched well in the series-clincher against the Red Sox earlier this week and I'm confident he'll hang in there against a Jays lineup that couldn't get anything going last night. I'm confident this is going to be a tightly-contested series all the way and fully expect another low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-16 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 85 | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
Early *10* CFB High Noon Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between West Virginia and Texas Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon. West Virginia is coming off a bit of a slugfest, pulling out a 17-16 win over Kansas State two weeks ago. Coming off its bye week, I'm confident we'll see WVU put forth another solid defensive effort on Saturday, knowing full well it can ill afford to get involved in a shootout here. I have to think it's time for the Red Raiders to say 'enough is enough' defensively. They've been getting lit up all season and are fresh off a tough 44-38 road loss to Kansas State last week. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, Texas Tech did hold Kansas to only 19 points in a blowout win. So they're capable of holding their own. I see this as a favorable matchup. The 'under' is 3-1 in four meetings between these two teams since West Virginia joined the Big 12. The only game that surpassed the total over that stretch still reached only 64 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-16 | Winnipeg v. BC UNDER 56 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and B.C. at 10 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment to the total in this matchup after these two teams were involved in a wild 37-35 affair last Saturday in Winnipeg. I believe the total will prove too high this time, however. Winnipeg may have scored 37 points in last week's victory, but the offense didn't exactly light it up with QB Matt Nichols held to 22-of-32 passing for 233 yards and Andrew Harris running for only 66 yards to lead the team in that category. B.C. won't be looking to get involved in another shootout with the Bombers, not given their defense has allowed a whopping 70 points in their last two contests. I do believe the Lions are a better defensive team than they've shown lately and I'm confident they can bounce back in that department here. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series in a number of years. The fact is, last week's game was the first to surpass this total we're looking at since back in September 2013. Three of the last six meetings in this series have actually failed to reach 40 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-16 | Oilers v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We played the 'under' in the first game of this home-and-home series but weren't close as the Oilers rolled to a wild 7-4 victory. I'm not too stubborn to stay with the 'under' here. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Calgary on Friday. The Oilers have the potential to be one of the most exciting teams in the entire league this season but the question remains whether they can keep the puck out of their own net. Needless to say, they'll be in for a challenge on Friday as the Flames are a better team than they showed on Wednesday. Lost in Wednesday's Oilers victory was the fact that the Flames put four goals on the board as well. I'm not sure either team is interested in a tight-checking contest on Friday. Both will want to tighten things up defensively but do they have the means to do so? If anything I believe both can actually be even sharper offensively. While I'm not about to call for another 11-goal outburst, I am confident this one finds its way 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 0-2 | Win | 103 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Jays and Indians had their way offensively in their respective ALDS but I expect a different story to unfold as this series opens on Friday night in Cleveland. Marco Estrada will take the ball for Toronto and he is at the top of his game right now having allowed one earned run or less in four consecutive starts. Estrada has been solid on the road all season, going 7-2 with an ERA just north of three and an even more impressive 0.98 WHIP. Three of his last four starts have stayed 'under' the total. Corey Kluber gets the nod for Cleveland. He is 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA at home this season and after stumbling down the stretch he rebounded with a terrific outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS, giving up just three hits over seven scoreless innings. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six starts overall. This was a tightly-contested series during the regular season, with the 'under' holding a slight 4-3 edge. That's not an overly strong trend, but it's one I'm willing to support here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
10* NFL Thursday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and San Diego at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a much higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in Week 17 last season, but it's not warranted in my opinion. The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, a game in which they didn't play particularly well defensively, giving up a touchdown on Atlanta's opening drive and never really getting back in the game. Here, I expect to see a positive response against a Chargers squad that has to feel frustrated at this point. San Diego has actually hung in there pretty well despite all of the injuries it has dealt with. The offense has led the way as the Chargers have put 30+ points on the board in three of their last four games. Keep in mind, they haven't exactly faced the best of the best in terms of defenses over that stretch, lining up against the Jags, Colts, Saints and Raiders. I think the Chargers defense deserves a little more respect than it is getting, noting that the unit was buoyed by the presence of highly-touted draft pick Joey Bosa last Sunday. Bosa recorded two sacks in the loss to the Raiders, and the Chargers did hold QB Derek Carr to just 25 completions on 40 pass attempts. They'll face a more run-heavy attack against the Broncos on Thursday night and I believe that serves them well. I don't believe the Broncos are going to be the offensive juggernaut they looked like through the first month of the season. Off back-to-back 'under' results, I'm looking for more of the same on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
10* MLB Thursday Night O/U Rout. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Thursday night. We've seen back-to-back high-scoring games in this series and three of the first four contests have played 'over' the total. I expect that trend to change here, however. Rich Hill will take the ball for the Dodgers. The left-hander wasn't all that sharp in his first appearance in this series, ultimately coming out on the wrong end in a 5-2 loss. I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he's impressed since joining the Dodgers, recording a 2.56 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His seven starts with the Dodgers have totaled an average of only 6.1 runs. Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He sports a stellar 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home this season. His 16 home starts have averaged just north of 6.3 total runs. Like Hill, Scherzer struggled in his first outing in this series but should respond favorably here. Prior to that start, he had allowed two earned runs or less in his last three outings against the Dodgers. It all comes down to this game for these two teams and I expect it to be played close to the vest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
NHL Thursday Night Super Total. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Buffalo on Thursday night. The Canadiens will be without Carey Price for this game, something they certainly became used to last season. Even without Price, I'm confident the Habs can hold down a middle of the road Sabres offense that will be without its top gun Jack Eichel. Note that Buffalo played seven preseason games and only two of those totaled more than four goals in regulation time. I'm certainly not expecting the Canadiens to make great strides offensively this season. They're still missing some key pieces up front, and dealing P.K. Subban to Nashville in exchange for Shea Weber certainly didn't add anything offensively. It's been years since we've seen a posted total of 5.5 in this matchup. That high total has a lot to do with Price's absence, but I'm not convinced that alone warrants the number. Take the under (8*). |
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10-12-16 | Maple Leafs v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
10* NHL Opening Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way the 'under' sets up in this opening night rivalry matchup. The Leafs certainly have their work cut out for them this season but one thing I know for sure is that they'll play the right way in year two under head coach Mike Babcock. I don't expect to see them come out and trade punches against the Senators in game 1 of the regular season. Instead look for a responsible defensive effort from the Leafs. The Senators have a strong defensive corps but it remains to be seen whether that will make up for deficiencies up front. I'm not convinced they'll be able to break through against the lowly Leafs, even with Toronto turning to projected backup goaltender Jhonas Enroth. The 'under' cashed in the final two regular season meetings between these two teams last season. Expect a similar outcome on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
10* NLDS Total of the Year My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Francisco at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night - which came as a surprise to most given the pitching matchup of Arrieta vs. Bumgarner. Here we see a lower-tier pitching showdown but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring result. This is obviously a series again after the Giants staved off elimination last night but they'll need a strong showing from starter Matt Moore in Game 4 in order to force a fifth and deciding game. I believe Moore is capable of stepping up in this spot, just as he has for much of the season. Moore checks in just 13-12 overall on the campaign with an ERA just north of four. But save for one bad start in Los Angeles, he was terrific down the stretch, including a key start against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season. Veteran John Lackey takes the ball for the Cubs. Like Moore, he posted some rather pedestrian numbers during the regular season but he's certainly shown the ability of stepping up in the playoffs, and I've always considered him somewhat of a 'road warrior' on the mound. The Giants have an opportunistic offense, and I don't see them matching last night's output here. This total is a shade high as far as I'm concerned. Both clubs are well-suited to playing N.L. playoff baseball, just as we saw in the first two games of the series, both low-scoring affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 45 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Bengals most recent game, an easy 22-7 rout of the Dolphins last Thursday night. I don't see any reason not to go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals got off to a slow start this season but their defense has never been a big issue. That defense should hold up well against an undermanned Cowboys offense that is relying heavily on a pair of rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has come along way going back over the last couple of seasons. Last week we saw a signature performance from this unit in San Francisco and I'm confident they'll come to play against the Bengals as well. These two teams last met four years ago, when the Cowboys prevailed by a 20-19 score in Cincinnati. The setting changes this time around but I believe we see a similar result from a totals perspective. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the Titans last week in Houston as they simply couldn't get enough stops and gave up a big punt return touchdown en route to a seven-point loss. I certainly didn't come away impressed by the Tennessee defense in that game, even if it did manage to limit the Texans offensive unit to only 20 points. Now it goes up against a Miami squad that will likely start slinging the football all over the field with the running game simply not working. The Dolphins should be able to have some success through the air with the trio of Stills, Landry and Parker. Last week they were completely shut down by a quality Bengals defense but an easier test awaits this Sunday. Offensively, I believe the Titans are far better than they have shown so far this season. Marcus Mariota was shaky last week but I'm confident he'll bounce back in this spot. I'm also confident that the Titans ground game can find some running room against an aggressive Dolphins front line. We won with the 'under' in the Fins loss in Cincinnati last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Army v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Army and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Army has made positive strides offensively this season, even if it didn't show it last week in an overtime loss at Buffalo. Prior to that setback, the Black Knights were a perfect 3-0, scoring 28, 31 and 66 points. Here, I look for the Black Knights to bounce back against a very beatable Duke defense. Despite allowing 35 and 34 points in their last two games, I'm not sure we've seen the worst the Blue Devils defense has to offer to be honest. There have been times this season where Duke has looked like a quality defensive squad but that was against the likes of North Carolina Central, Wake Forest and Northwestern (the latter being the most impressive performance). Duke is more than comfortable getting involved in a shootout, as we saw two weeks ago in that wild win at Notre Dame (we cashed with the Blue Devils in that one). The Blue Devils will certainly be looking to get loose again offensively after a poor performance at home against Virginia last week (we won with Virginia in that game). And the Blue Devils should be able to thrive offensively against an Army defense that has had it pretty easy this season, facing Temple, Rice, UTEP and Buffalo. Last year's matchup between these two teams totaled only 47 points as Army was a no-show offensively. We're looking at almost an identical closing total this time around but I believe it could be higher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-16 | UMass v. Old Dominion OVER 52.5 | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Friday. We could be in for a shootout in this under the radar matchup on Friday night. UMass is not a good offensive team - make no mistake about that. With that being said, I do believe the door is open for the Minutemen to turn in a bit offensive showing against a weak Old Dominion defense on Friday night. The Monarchs are coming off back-to-back blowout wins but why are they laying just north of a touchdown against a very beatable opponent here? It's because of their tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs that could go either way. I do expect to see the Monarchs score early and often in this one, and I certainly do lean their way minus the points. But I'm not sure they'll be able to keep the door shut for four quarters against a UMass squad that will be hungry off back-to-back road losses, and one that has put up 59 points combined over the last two games. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs but I'm not anticipating much of a feeling-out process. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Texas at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Friday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'under' in yesterday's series-opener but I won't hesitate to go back to the well in Game 2 on Friday afternoon. The Jays are in a nice groove offensively right now, but they took advantage of some Rangers miscues to turn in one big inning yesterday. I expect a sharper performance defensively from Texas on Friday. J.A. Happ will get the nod for Toronto. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for his successes, noting that he has gone 20-4 with an ERA just north of three this season. I'm confident he can carry over that success right into the postseason. Happ owns a respectable 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has held the Rangers to just four earned runs over three starts against them since the start of last season. Yu Darvish was lights out for the Rangers down the stretch, giving up one earned run over 13 innings in his last two outings. He's held the Jays to two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts against them, striking out 39 in 28 2/3 innings over that stretch. When you think of these two clubs the first thing that comes to mind is offense. However, this is a spot where I believe we see a duel. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 60.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Memphis on Thursday night. This matchup reminds me a little bit of a primetime opportunity the Memphis Tigers enjoyed early last season - a game they won by a 53-46 score over Cincinnati - easily eclipsing the seemingly high closing total of 70. Here, we're dealing with a much lower total, and only a slight adjustment from last year, when we saw a closing number of 57 points in this same matchup between Temple and Memphis. The Owls got the better of the Tigers on that day, winning by a 31-12 score. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair this time around. There are a lot of new faces on the Memphis offense, namely at the quarterback position with Paxton Lynch having moved on to the Denver Broncos. But the Tigers haven't missed a beat, scoring at will through their first four games. Their balanced attack should give Temple plenty of trouble on Thursday night, but I question how many stops the Tigers can get defensively. They faced what was essentially their first real test of the season last week and gave up 48 points in a blowout loss at Ole Miss. Temple has an experienced offense that is firing on all cylinders right now, coming off back-to-back 40+ point performances. When you think of the Owls you don't generally think of offense, but this is a group that has really come around in that regard. They're well tested on the road as well, having hung in there in a close loss at Penn State earlier this season - a game in which they scored a respectable 27 points. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring matchup in the last three meetings over the last three years, but I believe that changes here in 2016. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 10-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Texas at 4:35 pm et on Thursday. I feel this total has been set far too high. I understand the logic behind the relatively high number, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. Jays starter Marco Estrada looked every bit the part of the staff ace down the stretch, bouncing back from a really rough period. He gave up just two earned runs over his final three starts, spanning 17 innings of work. He'll certainly be motivated against a powerful Rangers lineup, but one that he has posted a 3-2 team record against in five career starts. The Rangers will turn to their ace Cole Hamels. He had an up and down regular season but still managed to post a 15-5 record. The fact is, the Jays offense hasn't been consistent by any means and even on Tuesday night in the Wild Card showdown against Baltimore, their bats were quiet for most of the night before Edwin's 11th inning blast. When you think of this matchup you think offense, but I'm not sure the series will play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-16 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I have no problem with going 'under' the low posted total in this N.L. Wild Card showdown on Wednesday night. We're looking at a premier pitching matchup here as the Giants send their ace Madison Bumgarner to the hill against Noah Syndergaard. Bumgarner certainly has the edge in terms of postseason experience and that should pay dividends on Wednesday night. The left-hander couldn't have asked for a better performance to head into the playoffs after as he needed 107 pitches to work into the eighth inning in a 9-3 win over the Giants last time out. Bumgarner has been solid if not spectacular on the road all season long, posting a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has also owned the Mets over the course of his career, giving up one earned run or less in four of his six previous outings against them. Syndergaard was snake-bitten by a lack of run support at times this season and as a result won only 14 games compared to nine losses during the regular season. He won't be short on confidence here though, as he checks in with a 2.87 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. Note that Syndergaard needed 93 pitches to toss six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins in his last regular season start. He didn't allow a single run over eight innings in a start in San Francisco back on August 21st. This is certainly a low total, but that's not unusual when it comes to N.L. playoff baseball. Expect a tight one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 43 | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. While I have a lot of respect for both of these defenses - even taking into consideration all of the injuries the Giants are dealing with on that side of the football - I simply believe this total will prove too low on Monday night. The Giants offense hasn't faced this level of challenge on the road in nearly two years. Back in 2014 they traveled to face the Seattle Seahawks and jumped out to an early lead, ultimately scoring 17 points in a 21-point loss. The offense did manage to hold its own on that day, however, and I believe we'll see a similar story unfold in Minnesota on Monday. While the Giants are thin at running back, it's not as if that position has been a focal point of the offense in recent years anyway. Despite what we saw last week, when they struggled to stretch out their lead and ultimately fell to the Redskins at home, the Giants have a terrific three-headed WR monster in OBJ, Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepherd. They will take their shots against this tough Vikings defense. Minnesota has yet to really get rolling offensively, but I see plenty of positives. Sam Bradford is settling into the offense nicely and has already developed chemistry with WR Stefon Diggs. Adrian Peterson may be sidelined, but Jerick McKinnon is no slouch out of the backfield, running for over five yards per carry against a tough Panthers defense last week. Keep an eye on rookie WR Adam Thielen as well, as he has also been a favorite target of Bradford. The potential is always there for points on the board from the Vikings special teams and defense, and while that can't be properly accounted for when handicapping the total, it is worth mentioning. I believe this total belongs in the mid-40 range, and while that wouldn't appear to give us much value to work with here, the combination of hype surrounding the Vikes defense and injuries in both backfields serve to help our cause - keeping this total in check. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 53.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Saints loss to Atlanta on Monday night and I'll make the same play on Sunday as New Orleans heads west to take on the Chargers. Both of these teams have performed exceptionally well offensively this season and I don't see anything changing in this particular matchup. Note that both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries, and most of those lie on the defensive side of the football. The Saints had no answers for the Falcons on Monday night and while they will take a step down in class here, I'm still not sure the Chargers will be the cure for what ails them. San Diego is missing a couple of key pieces on offense in RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen. However, the cupboard is by no means bare. The Chargers are led by a gunslinger in QB Philip Rivers and I'm confident we'll see him continue to throw downfield early and often. This is the highest total on the board this week, but it's warranted in my opinion. Look for the losing team to get into the high-20s and that should be all we need to cash our ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-16 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 53 | 33-40 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and B.C. at 10 pm et on Saturday. I'm fairly high on both of these teams and with that in mind, I'm anticipating a competitive, high-scoring affair in Vancouver on Saturday night. Ottawa has barely managed to stay above the .500 mark in recent weeks, but is coming off a 29-point performance against Toronto last week - a game it won by 17 points. Here, I look for the Redblacks offense to keep it rolling as they travel west to face the Lions. Note that B.C. has allowed exactly 27 points in back-to-back games. The Lions offense has been dominant for much of the campaign. Last week, B.C. was held to just 23 points in a loss at Edmonton, but that was against a desperate Eskimos squad, on the road no less. I'm confident we'll see the Lions bounce back here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 52 points, staying below the closing total of 56.5. That has afforded us a lower posted total this time around, but I don't believe the downward shift is warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Husky Stadium on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Stanford's most recent game - a 22-13 win at UCLA last Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. It took a while for the Cardinal offense to get rolling against the Bruins but I do expect them to turn in a much more efficient performance in this matchup. There's no question they're still working out some kinks with a new starting quarterback. But the pieces are in place for this offense to start taking strides forward. Washington has been electric offensively and is fresh off a big 35-28 overtime win at Arizona (we won with the Wildcats ATS in that game). I don't believe the Huskies are interested in a bruising, defensive-minded affair here. Not at home. I look for them to set the tone early as they look to knock the Cardinal defense down a peg or two. This hasn't been a high-scoring series, with the 'under' cashing in five of the last seven meetings. However, that actually works in our favor here - combined with the fact that the Cardinal have seen the 'under' cash in all three of their games so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-16 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 54 | Top | 40-26 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Winnipeg on Friday night. Note that the 'over' has cashed in each of the Blue Bombers last two games. Make no mistake, the Bombers have been playing terrific football, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. However, they run into a tough matchup here as Edmonton finally got on track with a big win over the Lions last week and should come into this one with a chip on its shoulder after suffering a home loss against the Bombers earlier this season. Keep in mind, the road team has won five of the last seven matchups in this series, with the Bombers winning just once over that stretch. Edmonton scored 27 points in a winning effort last week, but this is a team that has been struggling offensively. The Eskimos have topped out at 28 points over the course of their current 1-3 slide. Following four consecutive 'over' results, the 'under' has cashed in their last two games. The 'under' is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. That's a trend I expect to see continue here as there's a lot on the line for both teams. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Dolphins were involved in a wild 30-24 overtime affair against the Browns last week but let’s not get too carried away by that high-scoring result. Scoring 24 points in regulation time against a team the caliber of the Browns is no real accomplishment. This is still very much a ‘dink and dunk’ offense with Ryan Tannehill at the helm as far as I’m concerned. They’ll move the football at times on Thursday night but I’m not convinced they’ll put a lot of ‘7’s on the board. Defensively, the Fins gave up plenty of yardage but when it was all said and done, allowed just one offensive touchdown against the Browns last Sunday. This is still a quality defense, particularly up front, and they’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game to contend with a highly-motivated 1-2 Bengals squad on Thursday night. I don’t like the effort the Bengals have put forth on offense so far this season. It’s pretty much been A.J. Green or bust and while that can work at times, it’s not a feasible long-term strategy. They need to get RB Giovani Bernard in particular more involved, but I’m not sure the Dolphins will give them a great deal of open space on Thursday night. Cincinnati remains a stout defensive squad, even if it has shown some cracks so far this season. It's worth noting the Bengals have faced a tough schedule including matchups with Pittsburgh and Denver. Look for this game to play out just the way the Bengals like it – I’m confident we’ll see enough of a slugfest to keep this one ‘under’ the total on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 104 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been 'under' machines lately and I see no reason to go against that prevalent trend on Thursday night. Ubaldo Jimenez will take the ball for the Orioles. While he has struggled overall this season, posting some truly ugly numbers including an ERA approaching six, he's in fairly solid form right now, having given up three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He's also delivered a number of solid outings against the Jays going back to the start of last season. The last time he faced them he worked into the seventh inning, allowing just three earned runs in a 5-3 victory on August 30th. Marcus Stroman is rounding back into form as the regular season winds down. He'll certainly be amped up for his final start before the postseason on Thursday night. Stroman delivered seven innings of one-hit shutout ball last time out. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill. He gave up two earned runs or less in three of those four outings. He has struggled against the Orioles this season, but that should add to his motivation here. Both of these teams obviously have a lot to play for right now and I'm confident we'll see Thursday's series finale play out like a postseason affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-16 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game means a lot to the two starting pitchers, albeit for different reasons. For Cubs ace Jake Arrieta he is prepping for what will likely be his final regular season start as he amps up for the postseason. Arrieta bounced back for a bit of a subpar stretch with a tremendous outing against St. Louis last week, tossing seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way. He owns a 3.11 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road this season. Jameson Taillon will counter for Pittsburgh. He's just 1-2 in 10 home starts this season but that poor record hasn't been for lack of trying. Taillon has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP here at PNC Park. He's been pitching reasonably well lately and he'll certainly be up for this matchup against the Cubs - one of, if not the best team in baseball. This has been an 'over' series recently but I look for that trend to change on Wednesday night. Expect a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Bronx on Tuesday night. David Price takes the ball for the red hot Red Sox. Price has been lights out for the most part this season but certainly not untouchable lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two outings. He'll face a Yankees club that will certainly be eager to bounce back and show some pride following an ugly 3-1 series loss at the hands of the Blue Jays in Toronto. Note that six of Price's last 10 starts against the Yankees have reached at least 10 total runs. Luis Cessa will counter for New York. He set a season-high with six strikeouts in his most recent outing but again, that's not always a positive sign. He continues to put a lot of opposing hitters on base, having allowed 12 hits over his last two starts, spanning only 11 innings. He's also been tagged for at least one home run in six straight trips to the hill. Cessa faced the Red Sox on September 16th and allowed three earned runs over five innings in a 7-4 defeat. Both of these offenses are capable of busting out at the dish and that's precisely what I expect to see happen on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 53.5 | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and New Orleans at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Monday night as two NFC South rivals do battle. To put it simply, I have very little faith in the Falcons defense right now. They've done absolutely nothing to instill any confidence this season, allowing a combined 59 points against the Bucs and Raiders. Things won't get any easier here as they stay on the road to face what will be a desperate Saints squad. New Orleans hung in there in a losing effort against the Giants in New York last Sunday, with its defense putting forth an admirable effort. I don't expect to see a repeat performance against a familiar foe on Monday, however. Offensively, the Saints remain loaded and remember just two weeks ago Drew Brees lit up the Raiders, guiding his team to a 34-point performance. Expect an effort more closely related to that one than the stinker the team put up against the Giants last week. The 'under' is actually 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this series but that only serves to help our cause playing the 'over' in this particular matchup. I believe both teams are well-suited to get involved in a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys OVER 43.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night as I believe the Bears offense will take a step forward with Jay Cutler sidelined while the Cowboys got their swagger back in last week's win in Washington. There's no reason to think we see any sort of drop-off in offensive production from the Bears. There's really nowhere to go but up with Brian Hoyer taking over under center. I do feel that the Bears have some good pieces in place on offense. Jeremy Langford is being pushed for his starting job in the backfield while the receiving corps is solid with Alshon Jeffery leading the way (he's expected to play despite a minor injury). Meanwhile, the Cowboys showed a lot of positives in last week's win in Washington with Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant getting on the same page and Ezekiel Elliott showing flashes of brilliance in his second NFL start. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. I don't believe the low number is warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark badly with the 'over' in the Rams most recent game - a big home win over the Seahawks last Sunday. L.A. couldn't get anything going offensively in that game, but it was also up against a premier defensive unit. Different story here on Sunday as the Rams head to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Tampa Bay has been involved in back-to-back relatively high-scoring affairs, however the Bucs did little to help their own cause last week in a 40-7 loss against the Cardinals. I do expect to see the Bucs bounce back offensively here as they return home for the first time this season. Don't be fooled by last week's game against a hungry Cards squad. This Bucs offense has improved with QB Jameis Winston coming into his own in the pro ranks. The Rams are a good defensive team, but not a great one. Remember, in their opener they got ran all over in a 28-0 rout at the hands of the 49ers. They were fired up last week in their first game back in L.A. but here it may be a little tougher to get up for the opposition. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 46 | 22-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in this Pac-12 showdown on Saturday night. We're dealing with a much lower total than we saw in this matchup last season, despite the fact that last year's game totaled a whopping 91 points. That's largely due to the fact that the Stanford defense has been positively dominant this season, allowing only 39 points through three games. However, I do believe that we'll see the Bruins offense break through to some extend in this one. There's a reason UCLA is catching only a field goal here. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Bruins will be able to contain the Stanford offense for four quarters. Note that the Cardinal have scored at least 27 points in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' is a combined 6-0 in these two teams' six games so far this season. That only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this matchup, however. Note that the last two meetings in this series have totaled just 31 and 44 points. I don't believe that Penn State is as efficient offensively as it has shown through its first three games. Note that the Nittany Lions have faced Kent State, Pitt, and Temple - not exactly three defensive powerhouses. Michigan has rolled past three very beatable opponents in Hawaii, UCF, and Colorado. The Wolverines will taking a step up in class here, and I believe they're in for a battle. We'll see some big plays in this game but the total has ultimately been set too high based on recent results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-16 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 3-8 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Friday night. Comerica Park is obviously known as a pitcher's park and we have a fine pitching matchup in the offing on Friday as the Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy against the Tigers' Michael Fulmer. Duffy continues to roll along having allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Note that his road starts are averaging just north of seven total runs. Fulmer has been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts. He struggled last time out, but that's more of a short-term problem. In three outings against the Royals this year he has allowed just six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. This game should have a playoff atmosphere and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair given the pitching matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll play the 'under' in Foxborough on Thursday night. The Texans defense has held up well through two games - of course, those two games have come at home against two weak offensive squads in the Bears and Chiefs. Those performances should serve to give them a nice confidence boost, however, and it's not as if they're facing a Patriots offense that is at full strength. On the flip side of the equation, Bill Bellichick is known for his ability to have his team take away their opponent's best weapon and I expect that to hold true on Thursday as they do everything they can to minimize DeAndre Hopkins' contribution. The Texans still have other weapons but I don't have a lot of faith in QB Brock Osweiler lighting up this Patriots defense. New England gave up its share of points against Miami last week, but most of those points were scored when the game was already out of hand. The Patriots offense has been performing well but will undoubtedly take a step back with Jacoby Brissett under center. These two teams met last year in Houston and that game totaled just 33 points. I'm expecting more of the same this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Clemson and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Thursday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these programs. While I do feel the pointspread has been set just about right in this one, I can't help but feel the oddsmakers have missed the mark with the total. Both teams roll into this matchup 3-0. I do feel that if Clemson brings its 'A' game it should have little trouble brushing aside the Yellow Jackets, in particular manhandling them defensively. With that being said, Georgia Tech is unlikely to roll over. The Yellow Jackets are more than capable of churning out some long drives, even if they don't end in scores. That would certainly serve its purpose, keeping the electric Clemson offense off the field. This has been an 'over' series in recent years, with three of the last four meetings sailing over the number. However, the last time they met here, we saw just 34 total points scored in 2014. Too many long drives should help keep this one 'under' the total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 8 | 0-2 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair at Tropicana Field on Thursday night. Luis Cessa will take the ball for the Yankees. He's been good but not great in limited action this season and has had a tendency to give up the long ball, which could bite him in this particular matchup. Note that Cessa's six starts have averaged over 10 total runs. Blake Snell will counter for Tampa Bay. His nine home outings are also averaging over 10 total runs. Note that he's been tagged for seven earned runs over his last two starts, spanning nine innings of work. The Yankees have the bats to take full advantage of Snell's weaknesses here. We've seen a few low-scoring games between these two teams recently, but for the most part this has been an 'over' series. More of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Houston will hand the ball to Collin McHugh. We've made some money supporting him this season but let's face it, he's struggled, particularly on the road where he has gone 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Note that his road starts are averaging over 10 runs. Daniel Mengden will counter for Oakland. Like McHugh, he has had a tough time this year, going 2-7 with an ERA approaching six. Here at home, he's gone winless at 0-6 with an inflated 6.95 ERA. He is coming off seven shutout innings in Kansas City but has struggled mightily in two previous outings against the Astros this season, allowing nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. The A's have been one of the best 'over' bets in baseball this season and I look for that trend to continue in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-16 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Marco Estrada's last start for the Jays, but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as he takes the hill in Seattle on Monday night. This is obviously the start of a critical series for both teams' playoff chances. The Jays need to stop the bleeding and while Estrada may not appear to be the right guy to do so, his last outing wasn't as bad as it looked on paper, as he allowed only four hits working into the sixth inning, and struck out seven, his highest SO total since August 3rd. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker is just 6-10 with an ERA well north of four for the Mariners, but I believe he's a much better pitcher than those numbers show. He's catching the Jays at the right time as well, as they continue to slump at the dish. Note that Walker tossed a complete game shutout against the Angels last time out. Big game for both clubs - expect this one to be played close to the vest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Edmonton v. Saskatchewan OVER 54 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Saskatchewan at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Riders are coming off a poor offensive showing last week and let's face it, they've struggled virtually all season. They had played to three consecutive 'over' results prior to last week's game, however, and I look for another high-scoring affair here. Edmonton needs to bounce back in the worst way off back-to-back losses to the Stampeders. The 'over' has cashed in the Eskimos last four games and that's a streak that's in good position to continue here. Also note that the 'over' is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series. Stick with the trends. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, with neither living up to expectations offensively in those contests. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this Sunday, however, as Seattle heads to Los Angeles to face the Rams in their home opener. Russell Wilson suffered a sprained ankle in last week's narrow win over the Dolphins, so there is some concern about his health heading into this one. All indications are that he will play though, and I'm confident he'll play well against a beatable Rams defense. Meanwhile it's probably only a matter of time before Jared Goff takes over the reins under center for the Rams, but at least for this week, I look for Case Keenum to hold his spot and perform well in a bounce-back spot against the Seahawks defense. We're dealing with a very low total here, I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Texas v. California OVER 81 | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. If it wasn't evident prior to the season starting that Cal would be a big-time 'over' team this year, it certainly is now. The Golden Bears have been involved in two wild shootouts to open the season, and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday night as they return home to host an explosive Texas squad. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week, and likely one of the highest totals we'll see this season, but it's warranted. The Golden Bears just aren't going to have any answers for the versatile Texas offense. Last week, the Longhorns were able to shift it down a gear or two in the second half as they cruised past UTEP, but they won't be so fortunate in this one. Meanwhile, Cal hasn't missed a beat offensively with Davis Webb under center, and while the Bears will face a tough challenge against Texas' defensive front here, I'm still confident they'll find the end zone early and often. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville UNDER 68 | 20-63 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is an inflated total as far as I'm concerned, and it's not difficult to figure out why. Both the Seminoles and Cardinals have exploded out of the gates, scoring at will against overmatched opponents. I'm convinced we'll see the pace change here, as the physicality really ramps up in this key early season ACC showdown. We already know that Florida State is an elite defensive squad while the jury is still out on Louisville. Look for the Cardinals to prove themselves in that regard here, even if it doesn't turn out to be enough to secure a victory. I had this total several points lower than the number we're currently dealing with. We should have plenty of room to work with when it's all said and done on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-16 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. A solid pitching matchup at Safeco Field on Friday night as the Astros send Collin McHugh to the hill against Felix Hernandez. McHugh hasn't enjoyed a great season overall but has been solid lately, allowing one earned run or less in two of his last three trips to the hill. He's struggled in his last few road outings, but it's worth noting that he's faced some tough opposition in the Orioles, Pirates and Rangers in those three games. In his last two starts against the Mariners, McHugh allowed just a single earned run in 13 innings of work. King Felix is coming off a very efficient outing for the Mariners, needing only 91 pitches to last six shutout innings against the A's. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last three starts which helps to keep this total a shade higher than it probably should be. Hernandez has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts against Houston. A lot is on the line here, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-16 | Arkansas State v. Utah State UNDER 55.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Utah State at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got steamrolled last week as both ran into extremely tough matchups with Arkansas State losing at Auburn and Utah State falling at USC. Neither defense is as bad as it showed a week ago, at least in my opinion. I'm not sure either wants to get involved in a shootout here, as neither offense is well-equipped to be quite honest. Arkansas State does have some upside with Pitt transfer Chad Voytik at quarterback while Utah State is moving on from the Chuckie Keeton era. The Aggies will pound away with RB DeVante Mays, but that's provided he can even start as he's dealing with an ankle injury. After scoring just 24 points through two games Arkansas State will be eager to get back on track offensively - I'm just not sure this is the matchup to do that. Take the under (10*) |
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09-16-16 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 53 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Hamilton on Friday night. The Ti-Cats will certainly have their guard up defensively having allowed at least 30 points in three consecutive games. They put themselves in a real tough spot the last two games against the Argos, ultimately going 1-1. Let's face it, Hamilton has struggled defensively for much of the year, but this is a matchup it can handle. The Als are a team in serious turmoil right now, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Yes, Duron Carter is arguably the most explosive wide receiver in the CFL, but outside of that, the Als are a bit of a mess with lots of in-fighting and criticism in the public eye. After allowing 38 points on the road against B.C. last week, I expect to see Montreal tighten things up defensively on Friday night. The Ti-Cats could be in for a bit of a letdown off those two emotionally-charged contests against the rival Argos. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Depending on the line you got, you either pushed or won with my call on the 'over' in Toronto yesterday afternoon. The Jays did little to help the cause in that game, as they couldn't get anything going after the first inning in an eventual 8-1 loss. I still don't see the Jays bats coming alive in Anaheim on Thursday as Josh Donaldson remains sidelined, and the majority of their order remains mired in a slump at the dish at the absolute worst time. We won with the 'under' in the Angels 2-1 loss to the Mariners last night. Albert Pujols and Mike Trout went a combined 0-for-7 in that one. When those two bats aren't going, the Halos aren't scoring, plain and simple. I look for J.A. Happ to do a nice job of pitching around those two bats as he keeps the Angels in check tonight. Meanwhile, Angels starter Daniel Wright is catching the Jays at the right time. He didn't fare too well in his first start last weekend against Texas, but he'll face a more manageable challenge here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-16 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a 'push' and an 'under' result so far in this series and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair in Anaheim on Wednesday. The 'under' is 5-2 in Hisashi Iwakuma's last seven starts for the Mariners, and he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of those outings. Despite not piling up many wins, Iwakuma has pitched well against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts versus the division rival. Jhoulys Chacin will simply be asked to keep his Halos in the game tonight, and the hope is that he can at the very least work into the sixth inning. Chacin did hold the Yankees scoreless over 5 2/3 innings in his last trip to the hill. The Angels aren't hitting right now while the Mariners have fared well at the dish in this series, they were held to exactly three runs in two of three games in Oakland this past weekend. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 12:35 pm et on Wednsday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair at Rogers Centre on Wednesday afternoon. Alex Cobb will get the nod for the Rays. He's made just two starts this year, returning after a year plus on the shelf. Cobb didn't pitch particularly well in those starts, allowing 13 hits and five earned runs over 11 innings of work. Both of those games went 'over' the total. Marco Estrada continues to struggle for the Jays. He has given up at least five earned runs in three of his last five outings. Included in that stretch was an ugly outing against the Rays in which he was tagged for five earned runs. The 'over' is 5-1 in Estrada's last six starts overall and 2-0 in his last two outings against the Rays. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44 | 23-21 | Push | 0 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Arizona at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a big downshift in the total with not only Tom Brady out but also Rob Gronkowski. While I'm not sure the Patriots can truly overcome both of those huge absences, I do believe they'll still find a way to put some points on the board against a great Cardinals defense. On the flip side, I'm high on the Arizona offense and believe we'll see them continue to show progression just as they did as the preseason went on. Arizona will undoubtedly get up for this matchup against the high profile Patriots and I expect to see a sharp offensive performance. The Cards may be known for their defense but they've taken some big steps offensively with Carson Palmer under center. Following the line move, we're seeing excellent value to play 'over' this relatively low total on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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