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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and New England at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Thursday night. Kansas City didn't show much in the preseason, yet still managed to score 30 points in two of its four games. First round draft pick Pat Mahomes saw the bulk of the action under center, but Alex Smith is still the starter, and I believe he has enough weapons at his disposal to remain the starter for the entire campaign - even if most believe otherwise. The Patriots have an excellent defense but I'm not sure they'll have an answer for Travis Kelce or the WR/RB duo of Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Keep in mind, the Chiefs scored at least 24 points on nine different occasions last season. On the flip side, the Chiefs also have an elite defense. But when have the Patriots ever backed down from a challenge. The Pats may have lost Julian Edelman for the season but their 'next man up' philosophy has always served them well. They're still loaded on offense with the addition of Brandin Cooks and the potential emergence of Chris Hogan. We're dealing with a fairly high total here but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech OVER 55 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams will be ushering in new starting quarterbacks to open the 2017 campaign I'm not expecting either offense to miss a beat. Note that the Vols posted a 9-4 o/u mark last season. Dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs has moved on to the NFL but in what should be a run-heavy offensive attack, I'm not all that concerned with a new face under center. The same goes for the Yellow Jackets as they rely heavily on their run game in an option-based attack. A key here is the strength of both offensive lines, helping ease any growing pains under center. On the fast track in Atlanta, I'm looking for both teams to score points in bunches. We're dealing with a high posted total for a reason here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and LSU at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. College football games in domed stadiums always seem to draw in plenty of 'over' bettors. On the 'fast track' the common line of thinking is that the offenses will ultimately take over. I'm not sure that will be the case in this matchup between two excellent defensive squads, however. No Taysom Hill. No Jamaal Williams. Of course, that's not the entire story for BYU heading into this season, but it's a strong narrative for sure. Last week we saw the Cougars defeat FCS squad Portland State by a 20-6 score. QB Tanner Mangum completed only 16-of-27 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown. Note that BYU was held scoreless for the entire third quarter in that game and managed only a pair of field goals in the second half. Things certainly won't get any easier against LSU. On the flip side, I do expect BYU to hold its own defensively against the Tigers. LSU had a few offensive explosions last season, but more commonly we saw it struggle to string together fruitful offensive drives, particularly in the early stages of the season. I don't believe we'll see the Tigers come out firing on all cylinders here. Yes, the Cougars will be stepping up in class, but they've proved before they can hang with the big boys. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 66 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 8 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'under' cash in eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry and I look for that trend to continue on Friday night. Colorado State was involved in a wild 58-27 victory over Oregon State last week but don't count on it facing such little resistance against the rival Buffaloes here. Yes, Colorado loses the bulk of its talent from last year's defense but this is a well-coached squad that has enjoyed success recently, and I'm confident it still rises to the occasion defensively, even against a Colorado State squad that already has a game under its belt. Colorado has been an 'under' squad over the last couple of years, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Note that in the Rams 58-point outburst last week, they were handed five turnovers by the Oregon State offense. I'm confident we'll see the Buffs' take a more careful approach with the football. This could turn out to be a shootout but given how high the posted total is, I'm not sure it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 38 | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. While this is perhaps the most meaningless of all preseason weeks I actually expect to see both of these offenses open things up a little bit on Thursday night. The Titans were a no-show at home against the Bears last Sunday, scoring just a single touchdown in a 19-7 loss. That was discouraging after Tennessee hung 34 points on the board against the Panthers the week previous, but not all that unexpected. I do expect to see the Titans bounce back against a good Chiefs defense, but one that lacks depth. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a 26-13 loss in Seattle. Their offense looked disjointed in that game after scoring 30 points in a rout of the Bengals the week previous. A return home should help their cause here, and I like the matchup of mobile QB Pat Mahomes going up against the Titans defense. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We should see a well pitched game from both sides on Thursday night at Miller Park as the Nats' send Gio Gonzalez to the hill against Zach Davies of the Brewers. Gonzalez has been masterful of late, working at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Over his last five outings he has given up a grand total of just three earned runs over 34 1/3 innings pitched. Note that he owns a stellar 2.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. Zach Davies is pitching as well as he has at any point in his career right now. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, and seven of his last eight trips to the hill overall. Over those last three starts Davies has allowed only one earned run in 19 2/3 innings pitched. He'll obviously be in for a tough test against the Nats' on Thursday, but I'm confident he'll be up to the challenge after dominating the Dodgers last time out. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Indiana at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Thursday night. Indiana has had a nightmarish time trying to slow down the Buckeyes over the years but I believe the time is right for the Hoosiers to at least keep things interesting in the 2017 season opener, and it all starts with keeping the Ohio State offense at bay. Last year's Hoosiers squad was a little different. They didn't get involved in as many wild shootouts and that served them well as they reached a Bowl game and nearly took down a good Utah squad, ultimately falling by a 26-24 score. Indiana returns nine starters on defense this year and I believe it is well-positioned to at least get a few more stops than it did in last year's 38-17 drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State is one of the strongest teams not only in the Big Ten, but in the nation. It should only be a matter of time before the Buckeyes impose their will on the Hoosiers, especially on the defensive side of the football. We did see Ohio State's offense stagnate at times last year and I believe we see a similar story unfold as the season begins on Thursday. Last year's matchup totaled 55 points - the second straight 'under' result in this series. We're dealing with a slightly lower total as a result, but I believe the move is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Wednesday night. Kendall Graveman will take the ball for the A's. His overall numbers are pedestrian but he has pitched well lately, working at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up two earned runs or less in each outing. The last time he faced the Angels back in May he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. Parker Bridwell will counter for Los Angeles. He has been a breakout player for the Angels this season, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. Like Graveman, he has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of those three outings. The 'under' has gone 8-0-1 in his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Washington Mystics UNDER 169.5 | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Tuesday night. We're dealing with a higher total than we saw in the last matchup between these two squads - not surprising given that last matchup finished with a whopping 188 total points. Here, I look for Connecticut to tighten things up after allowing 96 points last time out. Note that the Sun are giving up just north of 81 points per game this season. Washington has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last two games and allows just a shade over 80 points per contest at home this season. It's worth noting that six of the last seven matchups between these two squads have finished 'under' the total we're dealing with on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-17 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Yankee Stadium on Monday night. The Indians are coming off an incredible series in which they swept the Royals, outscoring them 20-0. I'm not sure they'll have as easy of a time against Luis Severino and the Yankees on Monday, however. Severino has worked into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts, allowing a grand total of just two earned runs in those outings. In fact, he has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. For the Indians, their ace Corey Kluber will take the ball. He came out on the wrong end of a 6-1 decision against the Red Sox last time out. It certainly was no fault of his as he worked 7 2/3 innings, allowing only two earned runs on four hits. Kluber has proven to be a big game pitcher and has given up just three earned runs in his last four starts against the Yankees, spanning 31 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-17 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We've made plenty of money backing the 'over' with each of Sunday's respective starting pitchers on the mound (Charlie Morton and Ricky Nolasco) over the years. Nothing changes here. Morton has had a tough time in two daytime outings this season, posting an ERA well north of five to go along with two losses. He's been pedestrian at best on the road, with a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Morton has benefited from making four of his last five starts at home but won't be so fortunate here. Ricky Nolasco continues to hold down a job in the Angels rotation but it remains to be seen for how much longer. Nolasco has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but that comes on the heels of back-to-back outings in which he allowed five earned runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 6-1-1 in his last eight trips to the hill. Nolasco has been fortunate to have given up only four earned runs despite allowing 16 hits in 13 innings against the Astros this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass OVER 62 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and UMass at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks between the Rainbow Warriors and Minutemen in Saturday's season opener. That's not a real stretch as these two teams combined to score 86 points in last year's meeting in Hawaii - a game the Warriors won by a 46-40 score. Both teams return plenty of talent on offense. While both also return pieces from last year's defenses, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. Yes, Hawaii managed to win a Bowl game last year, but still gave up 35 points against Middle Tennessee in the process. UMass couldn't stop anyone, allowing 52, 51 and 46 points over its final three contests. To put it simply, this has the makings of a shootout and we're dealing with a reasonable total as far as I'm concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Friday night. We cashed with the 'under' in this ballpark last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. While the Angels are known as a high-scoring team, that hasn't necessarily been the case this season and they've actually trended to the 'under' in the big picture. Tonight they'll be up against Astros starter Collin McHugh. McHugh has made only six starts this season as he works his way back from injury, but he's coming off arguably his best outing of the campaign, tossing six shutout innings last time out. Note that he has enjoyed tremendous success here in Anaheim, allowing just six earned runs in 29 innings of work over his last four starts here. Parker Bridwell will counter for the Angels. He's given up two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts, working at least six innings in two of those outings. The Angels have won his last eight starts, and he has posted a solid 3.13 ERA in nighttime starts this season. Also note the 'under' is 7-0-1 in his last eight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton OVER 53.5 | Top | 54-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday. With Edmonton coming off its first loss of the season last week, I look for it to come out as the aggressor on Friday night as it welcomes the Riders to town. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as the Riders have certainly shown they can put points on the board in a hurry with a pass-heavy offensive attack of late. Yes, Saskatchewan has struggled on the road this season, dropping double-digit decisions in Calgary and B.C. over its most recent stretch. However, the Riders are playing with some confidence after trouncing aforementioned B.C. last week and I think they may be catching the Eskimos at the right time. Edmonton wasn't going to keep up its undefeated season forever. After suffering its first loss I won't be surprised if we see it let down its guard a little in this spot, opening the door for the Riders offense. Defensively, I'm not sure Saskatchewan will have many answers for Eskimos QB Mike Reilly. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Patriots v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Detroit at 7 pm et on Friday. I believe this is a situation where public perception and reality are two very different things. The public will be anticipating a shootout between the Patriots and Lions. After all, we're likely to see extended action from the starters, and most minds immediately go to Tom Brady and Matt Stafford airing it out. However, the Pats have already seen their first two games go 'over' the total and I believe that results in an inflated total here. Keep in mind, the Lions offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up this preseason, despite facing two pedestrian defenses in the Colts and Jets. They'll be in tough against a quality Patriots defense here. Meanwhile, the Pats rarely lay all of their cards on the table in the preseason - not even in the Week 3 'dress rehearsal'. I'll play the number here and call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-17 | Panthers v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Jacksonville at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Panthers first two exhibition tilts over the last three preseasons (four including this year). With that being said, in none of those years did their third preseason game go 'over' the number. I don't see that trend changing here. Yes, Cam Newton will start for the Panthers. but he'll see nothing more than a cameo appearance. Meanwhile, the Jaguars offense has been extremely limited since training camp opened. Chad Henne will get the start at quarterback on Thursday but I'm not expecting him to enjoy much success. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette will not play. This total is being priced as a preseason shootout, but I just don't see that type of game developing. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-17 | Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and New York at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon. Robbie Ray makes his return to the D'Backs rotation, making his first start since July 28th when he lasted only 1 2/3 innings before suffering a concussion. Ray has certainly pitched well this season, particularly on the road, where he has gone 5-1 with a tremendous 1.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Note that he has allowed just one earned run in 17 career innings pitched against the Mets. New York has really struggled lately but will hope to get another fine outing from Rafael Montero. He checks in a miserable 2-8 with an ERA approaching six on the season. However, he has pitched well lately, giving up only three earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Despite his 5.23 ERA in daytime starts this season, those games have totaled an average of just 7.6 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-17 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We're dealing with an inflated total here after Angels starter Andrew Heaney was tagged for four home runs in his first start following Tommy John surgery. I look for Heaney to bounce back against the Rangers, keeping in mind he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk in five innings against the Orioles last time out. Andrew Cashner will counter for the Rangers. He lasted only 5 2/3 innings in his last start ending a stretch of six consecutive starts in which he worked at least six innings. Cashner has held each of his last four opponents to two earned runs or less. The 'under' is a perfect 8-0 in his last eight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He has posted a sparkling 1.71 ERA over his last three starts, not allowing a single home run over that stretch. Stroman has worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Austin Pruitt will counter for the Rays. He got hit hard in his most recent outing, allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in seven innings. Prior to that he had given up just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 18 1/3 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his six outings this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-22-17 | Rockies v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. While most are anticipating a high-scoring affair in this interleague matchup on Tuesday night, I believe we'll see both starting pitchers turn in strong performances and help keep this one 'under' the total. Jon Gray will take the ball for the Rockies. He's had an up and down campaign but he comes into this start pitching well, having worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Gray has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last five trips to the hill. Note that his road starts are averaging just under 8.5 total runs this season. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. While he's only managed to go 3-4 at home this season he has posted a respectable 3.14 ERA. His home starts are averaging under 7.8 total runs. While Duffy has had a bit of a tough time lately, that has a lot to do with the fact that he's made four of his last five starts on the road. Save for a couple of outbursts, the Rockies offense has struggled to score runs lately. The Royals have been better in that regard, but have proven inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We should see a terrific pitcher's duel between the Dodgers and Pirates on Monday night as Alex Wood squares off against Gerrit Cole. Wood is enjoying a career season, having gone 14-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last three outings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in Wood's last two starts. Cole has lasted at least six innings in eight straight starts. He has been tagged for 10 earned runs in his last three trips to the hill but I see him stepping up against an elite opponent here. Note that Cole's home starts are averaging just a shade north of 7.5 total runs per contest this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 96-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
WNBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season, and by a considerable margin. I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that Connecticut has been on fire of late, and is coming off a huge 96-point outburst last time out. All five Sun starters scored in double-figures in that contest, a feat I don't expect them to repeat on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Atlanta can't get out of its own way right now. The Dream are going to have to tighten things up defensively if they want to hang around in this one given the way the Sun have been scoring at will. Keep in mind, Connecticut's last loss came in its last road game, and it scored only 80 points in that setback in New York back on July 19th. Atlanta has allowed 80+ points in four straight games, but I don't believe that is a sustainable trend. Note that the Dream are giving up just north of 78 points per game at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-17 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I simply feel we're looking at two underrated starting pitchers in this matchup as Ty Blach takes the ball for the Giants against Adam Conley of the Marlins. Conley has been ripped over his last two outings but had been pitching well previously and should bounce back against a Giants club that has topped out at six runs (once) over their last seven contests. Blach has been terrific for the Giants, allowing exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts, with all three of those outings spanning seven innings or more. Blach has worked at least six innings in seven consecutive starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-17 | Lions v. Colts OVER 36 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Indianapolis at 1:30 pm et on Sunday. The absence of Matt Stafford and Andrew Luck from these two teams' respective gameplans on Sunday afternoon is helping keep this total low, too low in my opinion. I'm confident we'll see both offenses put some points on the board, keeping in mind the Colts QB rotation won't be all that different than a year ago when Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris took the snaps in their preseason opener. The Lions will have Jake Rudock and Brad Kaaya under center on Sunday afternoon. Rudock threw a touchdown pass in his preseason opener a year ago while Kaaya has the tools to make some plays against second and third defensive units as well. After three 'under' results yesterday I'm confident we'll see this one go 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-17 | Raiders v. Cardinals OVER 39.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Arizona at 10 pm et on Saturday. While it is only Week 1 of the preseason I don't expect either of these teams to hold anything back on Saturday night at University of Phoenix Stadium. Both teams boast terrific preseason QB rotations, and I'm confident we'll see points on the scoreboard in all four quarters - something that can't be said for most preseason tilts. Keep in mind, the Raiders put up 31 points against these same Cardinals in last year's preseason opener. The Cards didn't hold up their end of the bargain scoring only 10. I certainly anticipate them improving on that number here. They scored a combined 62 points in their final two preseason games a year ago. I'm anticipating somewhat of a shootout on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-17 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 37.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 9 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are known for their offense but I believe we're going to see a fairly high-scoring affair on Friday night. Don't count on the Chiefs vaunted defense showing much in this one. Their starters will see little action with this being their preseason opener of course. While the 49ers would like to gain some confidence for their unproven defensive unit, I'm not sure they have the depth to do so against a quality opponent. Both teams have serviceable QB rotations and I like the presence of playmaker Pat Mahomes for the Chiefs late in the game for some garbage points, should we need them at all. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-17 | Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Both of these teams can mash, there's no doubt about that. However, I believe we're in for a well-pitched game on Friday as the Rockies send Jon Gray to the hill against Jose Urena. Gray has struggled in six road starts this season but most of his issues came earlier in the season. He brings excellent form to the table right now, having worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts, and seven innings in each of his last two outings. Over his last three starts, Gray has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Jose Urena has worked at least six innings in three of his last four trips to the hill, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those starts. His home starts are averaging just 7.4 total runs. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in four of Urena's last four starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-17 | Edmonton v. Ottawa UNDER 56 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Don't be fooled by last week's wild 33-30 shootout loss to the Blue Bombers - the Redblacks offense hasn't been able to truly get rolling this season. Things won't get any easier as the undefeated Eskimos roll into town on Thursday night. On the flip side, Ottawa's defense is far better than it showed against Winnipeg last week. Look for the Redblacks defense to make a statement here. Edmonton hasn't allowed more than 28 points in a game this season, which is impressive considering this is the CFL after all. Having scored over 30 points in three straight games, I look for the Eskimos offense to take a step back this week. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-17 | Redskins v. Ravens OVER 37 | 3-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Baltimore at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Most casual bettors will be expecting a real stinker in Baltimore on Thursday night, with points coming at a premium. I'm not sure it will play out that way on the field, however. Neither defense is where it wants to be, but that's to be expected as we approach the first game of the preseason. Don't count on either defensive unit showing its hand here either. It's all about playing smart football, limiting mistakes, how many points are given up is really irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. I like the fact that both teams bring veteran backups at the quarterback position in Colt McCoy and Ryan Mallett. We're dealing with a low total all things considered as I have the loser getting to at least 17 points in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-17 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Jose Quintana will get the nod for the Cubs. After three straight quality starts after joining the Cubs he finally ran into a wall last time out. I expect him to bounce back in this favorable matchup, however. Note that Quintana has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in two road starts as a Cub. Ty Blach will counter for San Francisco. He has been quietly effective, working at least six innings in six consecutive starts. He's lasted at least seven innings in his last four trips to the hill. Blach has posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 home starts this season, with those games totaling an average of 7.45 runs. The Giants have actually been the more consistent offensive club lately but I'm not convinced they push many across the plate here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Cleveland on Friday. Jaime Garcia will get the nod for the Yankees. He's worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts entering this outing. Over his last three starts he has allowed just seven earned runs over 20 2/3 innings. Garcia has certainly bounced around, with this start marking his third different team to pitch for over his last three outings. That doesn't mean he can't settle in and pitch well here, however. Trevor Bauer will take the hill for the Indians. He worked eight innings, allowing just one earned run against the Angels last time out. After struggling over a three start stretch that was just what the doctor ordered for Bauer. The Yanks have been struggling a bit at the plate so Bauer may be catching them at the right time. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa UNDER 58.5 | 33-30 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Ottawa on Friday night. We're dealing with a high total here largely due to the fact that the Blue Bombers have been involved in some absolute track meets lately, with their last two games totaling 87 and 81 points. I expect a different story to unfold here. Ottawa has reeled off three straight ATS wins, but still has just one SU victory on the season. The Redblacks have been idle since July 24th so they've had plenty of time to gameplan for the Bombers. Winnipeg certainly hasn't proven capable of slowing opposing offenses but this might be the right matchup as Ottawa has never really been able to get rolling offensively this season, scoring 25 points or less in each of its last four contests. Also note that the 'under' is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 35.5 | 20-18 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. With this year's Hall of Fame Game taking place even earlier in the month of August than usual we can expect to see some very vanilla gameplans, both offensive and defensive, from both sides. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has already announced that his starters won't play in this game. Blaine Gabbert will take the reins under center for the entire first half before undrafted rookie Trevor Knight handles second half duties. Don't count on either quarterback turning in a banner performance here. The Cowboys saw the 'over' cash in all four preseason games a year ago. That was thanks in large part to the emergence of then-rookie Dak Prescott. Like the Cardinals, the Cowboys likely won't give much time, if any at all, to their starters, including Prescott. We're dealing with a low total here, but it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-17 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 54.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Toronto on Thursday night. This play is as much about the number we're working with than anything else. It's simply too high. The Stampeders ran roughshod over the Ti-Cats at home last week, scoring a whopping 60 points in an absolute rout. Don't count on them enjoying the same level of success against an Argos squad that will be eager to bounce back following a tough road loss in Saskatchewan last Saturday. Not sure the short turnaround helps either team's cause in this non-division matchup. Toronto scored 32 points in its season-opener against Hamilton. It hasn't eclipsed 27 points since. After a rough start defensively, the Stamps have allowed just 51 points over their last four games. Last week was the first time in four games Calgary scored more than 29 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-31-17 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 12:35 pm et on Monday. It's getaway day in Philadelphia on trade deadline Monday and after a pair of low-scoring games between these two teams over the weekend, I'm anticipating a similar story to unfold today. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for Atlanta. The Braves have gone a perfect 9-0 in his last nine outings and he's been most impressive of late, working at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing three earned runs or less in seven consecutive starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for the Phillies. He has hung around in the Phillies rotation despite some ups and downs. I do like the fact that he battled and lasted six innings despite giving up five earned runs against a tough Astros lineup last time out. He struck out seven while walking only one in that game. Keep in mind, this is a guy that is more than capable of stepping up, noting he tossed seven shutout innings against the Red Sox earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This series opened with a high-scoring affair on Friday night but I'm expecting a low-scoring contest in Sunday's finale at Safeco Field. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Mets. He's quietly held his own this season, particularly of late as he has worked at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Lugo will be facing the Mariners for the first time in his career on Sunday afternoon. James Paxton will counter for Seattle. Paxton has been lights out this season, going 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's been at his absolute best at home, recording a 2.36 ERA, with his 10 starts totaling an average of only eight runs. The 'under' has cashed in each of Paxton's last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | 10-11 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Rogers Centre on Sunday afternoon. Jesse Chavez will take the ball for the Angels. He shut the Jays down over six innings in a 2-1 home win earlier this season. Chavez was roughed up in his last outing but had been solid in his previous four trips to the hill, giving up three earned runs or less in each start, with the 'under' cashing at a 4-0 clip. Cesar Valdez will counter for the Jays. He was terrific against the A's earlier this week, allowing one earned run over six innings, needing only 77 pitches to get through that outing. While that's not a sustainable trend in the long-term picture, I do believe he can pitch well against the Angels on Sunday. Neither of these teams have been scoring with any consistency. This total has been set too high as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-17 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan UNDER 53.5 | 27-38 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Saskatchewan at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure where all of the offense is going to come from in this matchup on Saturday. Neither team has much of a running game and while we'll see a battle between two veteran quarterbacks that have accomplished a lot in this league, both are on the downside of their careers and have what I would call average receiving corps to work with. The first two CFL tilts this week cruised 'over' the total but I believe we're working with a high total in this one on Saturday. The side call is virtually a coin flip, but I see value playing the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-17 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 54.5 | 26-37 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between B.C. and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the season opener between these two teams, but that shift is warranted in my opinion. The Eskimos remain undefeated on the season but have gone just 1-2-1 ATS. They've gotten the job done with defense for the most part and I expect them to perform well once again here, against a Lions squad that has scored a whopping 86 points over their last two contests. The 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series. It's early in the campaign but there's a lot on the line here. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-17 | Montreal v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 40-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Winnipeg on Thursday night. The Alouettes were held to just 19 points in a narrow loss in Ottawa last week. That was a tough spot for the Als as they ran into a highly-motivated Redblacks squad that at the time remained winless on the young campaign. Montreal still did some good things offensively in that one, with Darian Durant completing 35-of-45 passes for well over 400 yards. Remember, just two weeks ago the Als put up 30 points in an impressive win over Calgary. We won with the Blue Bombers in a close loss in B.C. last Friday night. Winnipeg lit up the scoreboard in that one, scoring 42 points against a quality Lions defense. I'm confident Matt Nichols and co. will find continued success against an Als defense that has proved vulnerable at times this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Toronto at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. This has been a low-scoring series so far and I'm anticipating more of the same in the finale on Thursday. Sean Manaea was roughed up in his last start for the A's, allowing 10 hits and four earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. However, prior to that he had worked at least seven innings in three straight outings, giving up three earned runs or less each time out. Marcus Stroman has been lights out for the Jays over his last two trips to the hill and should be able to keep it going against a less than impressive A's lineup that has really struggled here in Toronto. Stroman worked 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one earned run in his last start, and that was a tough one on the road against the Indians. Take the under (10*). |
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07-26-17 | Reds v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 5-9 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in New York on Wednesday afternoon. Homer Bailey has been a train wreck in his return to the big leagues this season, at least in the big picture. He has actually performed better lately, allowing two earned runs or less and working at least six innings in three of his last four trips to the hill. Luis Severino will counter for the Yankees and of course he's been enjoying a tremendous campaign. He's been on point in recent outings, working exactly seven innings while giving up a grand total of four earned runs over his last three starts. With the Reds struggling to put together big innings, I expect Severino to turn in another stellar outing this afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Tuesday night. Danny Duffy will take the ball for the Royals. He's just 6-6 on the season but owns a respectable 3.71 ERA. Perhaps more importantly, his starts this season have totaled an average of just 7.8 runs. Note that Duffy has needed only 91 and 76 pitches to get through his last two outings. He's kept the ball in the park (no home runs allowed) in four f his last five starts. Michael Fulmer will counter for Detroit. He was tagged for five earned runs in only 2 2/3 innings of work against the Royals last week. Prior to that he had worked at least eight innings in three of his last four starts, however. Fulmer owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this season. Both of these teams have been scoring in bunches lately, but I believe this is a fine spot to play contrarian and back the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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07-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 55.5 | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Calgary at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Stamps should have little trouble running up the score against the Riders on Saturday night but I'm also confident we'll see Saskatchewan find plenty of success through the air. The Riders saw plenty of turnover in the offseason and while they're expected to bring up the rear in the West Division they do have the potential to be a fun team to watch thanks to a terrific receiving corps. We're dealing with a high total on Saturday but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Friday night. Trevor Williams will take the ball for the Pirates. His overall numbers aren't overly impressive by any means. However, he has still managed to hold his last six opponents to three earned runs or less. The Rockies will be seeing him for the first time tonight. Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman owns an ERA north of six at home. But he's worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts, with the 'under' going 3-1 over that stretch. Like Williams, he'll be facing the opposition for the first time in his career. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-17 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 53.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Hamilton on Thursday night. The Ti-Cats are off to a terrible start this season, having lost three games in a row, allowing a whopping 110 points in the process. Things won't get any easier against the Eskimos, but the good news for Hamilton is that Edmonton - despite its perfect 3-0 record - isn't exactly firing on all cylinders offensively. The Eskimos have scored 30, 23, and 23 points in winning their first three contests. Their defense might just be the best in the league right now, allowing only 67 points through three games. They held the Ti-Cats to just 21 points in last year's playoff meeting and I anticipate a similar outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-17 | Chicago Sky v. Seattle Storm UNDER 166.5 | 94-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Tuesday night. The Sky are coming off a wild 112-106 overtime loss in Dallas last time out. Keep in mind, just two games back they gave up only 68 points in a road win in New York. Note that the Sky have held the opposition to just under 40% shooting on the road this season. Seattle has allowed 83 and 84 points in its last two games, after giving up 69, 79, and 69 points in its previous three contests. Prior to its last game, the 'under' had cashed in the Storm's last four contests. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-1 clip in the last eight meetings in this series but that only serves to give us a higher total to work with this time around. Things have obviously changed a lot in Chicago since the last time these two teams met last season. I'm not anticipating a barn-burner on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-15-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. This looks like a pitcher's duel on paper. However, I don't see it playing out that way on the field. Luis Severino will take the ball for the Yankees. He has been very average lately, posting a 4.66 ERA over his last three outings. Note that he has recorded a 5.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in daytime starts this season. Note that Severino's starts are averaging just shy of 9.5 runs per game. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He's quite simply one of the best starters in baseball. Here at home, he's gone 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. With that being said, he's needed 108, 116, and 113 pitches to get through his last three outings. Note that his daytime starts are averaging north of 8.7 total runs per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-14-17 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Montreal at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Montreal on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Als 23-16 loss to the Lions last week. I did see some positive signs from the Montreal offense in that game, however, it simply couldn't find the end zone. Expect QB Darian Durant to do a much better job of finishing drives this week. Calgary keeps rolling along, having scored 103 points over its first three contests. We saw a strong performance from the Stamps defense last week in Winnipeg but can they do it again in a second straight road game? I'm not so sure. We saw two extremely low-scoring games between these two teams last season, but we're working with a lower total as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-13-17 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 52 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Winnipeg on Thursday night. The Argos are off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start to the campaign. Their offense has looked disjointed at times, but they managed to get going late in their last game against the Redblacks. Toronto isn't going to surprise anyone here, it will continue to air it out with veteran QB Ricky Ray and that serves us well with the 'over' against a vulnerable Blue Bombers defense. Winnipeg lit up the scoreboard in its season opener in Saskatchewan but struggled when stepping up in class against the Stampeders last week. After that ugly 10-point performance, I look for the Bombers to respond favorably here. The last time these two teams hooked up they combined to score 75 points. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-17 | White Sox v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. Travel day on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. We won with the over last night in Colorado but I won't hesitate to switch gears tonight. I'm looking for both starters to rise to the occasion. Jose Quintana hasn't had a good first half but he has shown some positive signs in recent outings and I expect him to bring the proper level of focus to this start. Hoffman has been sharp in six of his last seven trips to the hill. We're dealing with a high total as usual here at Coors Field but it's a shade too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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07-08-17 | Toronto v. Ottawa OVER 55.5 | 26-25 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Saturday. In keeping with what seems to be this week's theme, I'll back the 'over' in Ottawa on Saturday. The Argos were a no-show, at least offensively, in last week's loss to the Lions. That was against one of the leagues toughest defenses, however. Different story this time around as they head to Ottawa to face the Redblacks. Yes, the Redblacks can score points with the best of them, but their defense leaves something to be desired. Sure they've been in tough out of the gate with back-to-back games against the Stampeders but their defense has been spotty at best. This was an 'under' series last year with the 'under' cashing in all three meetings. That only serves to give us value backing the 'over' this time around. As high as this total seems, I believe it could be even higher. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-17 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with an extremely high posted total for this Interleague matchup, but I believe it's warranted. Derek Holland will take the ball for the White Sox. He's gone just 12-17 with an ERA approaching five since the start of last season. Note that Holland has been tagged for at least five earned runs in four of his last six outings. The Rockies will counter with German Marquez. He's had an up and down campaign so far. He's been far from dominant here at home, posting a 4.85 ERA. The good news is the Rockies bats have come alive for him, posting six runs per contest here at Coors Field. While Marquez has allowed just one earned run in his last five outings, he had allowed four in his two previous trips to the hill. Both of these teams can obviously rake. The loser gets to six and we'll cash our ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-17 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 58.5 | Top | 29-10 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Winnipeg on Friday night. We've won with the 'over' in each of Calgary's first two games. While we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Note that the most recent meeting between the Stampeders and Blue Bombers totaled 70 points last September. Like the Stamps, the Bombers are off to a strong start to the campaign, fresh off a wild 43-40 overtime win in Saskatchewan last Saturday. Things will obviously get much tougher here, but in their home opener, I don't expect the Bombers to hold anything back. Winnipeg hasn't defeated Calgary in years. Look for it to throw everything it has at the Stamps on Friday night, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. San Antonio Stars UNDER 156 | 92-77 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and San Antonio at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Phoenix's most recent game - an 88-80 home win over Washington on Wednesday night. I'll switch gears and back the 'under' on Friday, however, as the Mercury head to San Antonio to face the Stars. I'm just not convinced San Antonio can score enough to help this total along. The Stars are averaging just under 73 points per game this season. Note that the 'under' is 5-2 in their last seven contests overall. While Phoenix averages just under 82 points per game on the road, it has shot just north of 41% from the field. If the Stars are going to have any chance in this game, they'll need to keep the score down. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-17 | LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 165 | 77-88 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw in last year's WNBA Finals between these two teams, but I believe it's warranted. The Lynx have seen each of their last four and six of their last seven games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. Minnesota is a considerable favorite this time around, but I don't expect the Sparks to back down. Los Angeles has won eight games in a row including five straight ATS. With that said, the 'under' has gone 5-1 in its last six games. The Sparks have had a tendency to get involved in higher-scoring games on the road, where they average 86 points per game while giving up just shy of 82. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-17 | BC v. Montreal OVER 49.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've seen the 'under' go a perfect 4-0 in games involving the Lions and Alouettes this season but I look for that trend to change on Thursday night. Simply put, I feel that this total has been set too low noting that the last two meetings in this series have played 'over' the total. The Lions offense has been in top form so far this season, scoring 55 points through two games. They'll face a tougher challenge than they went up against last week in Toronto, but I'm confident they'll be up for it. The Als know they need to sharpen things up offensively, and they need to do so quickly if they're to avoid suffering a second straight loss. There have been some positive signs and a return home should help their cause on Thursday. I like the Als ground game and receiving corps and it's only a matter of time before veteran QB Darian Durant gets up to speed with the playbook. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-17 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Wednesday night. Jason Vargas will be aiming for his 13th win of the season for the Royals. The former Mariner will certainly be up for this showdown with his old club. Vargas has posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. He hasn't missed a beat on the road, recording a 2.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Vargas' road starts have averaged just a shade north of eight total runs. Ariel Miranda will take the ball for Seattle. He continues to pitch well beneath the radar for the Mariners, having gone 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-2-2 in his nine home starts, where he has posted a 2.56 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Royals have been surging but they're not scoring with a great deal of consistency. The same goes for the M's from an offensive standpoint. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-17 | Washington Mystics v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 162.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair in Phoenix on Wednesday night as the Mystics aim to bounce back from a poor second half showing in Los Angeles last time out. Washington scored 47 points in the first half of that contest before being held to only 22 in the second. The Mystics are obviously a better team than they showed in that one, having won their three previous games. Phoenix has scored 80+ points in five of its last six games. The 'over' is 7-1-1 in the Mercury's last nine games overall. The fact that Washington has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last seven contests is helping to keep this total in check. I simply feel that the sky is the limit for both offenses in this particular matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-17 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon but I'm not anticipating the same fireworks (no pun intended) on Wednesday. Mike Pelfrey will take the ball for the White Sox. He hasn't been great this season, but he also hasn't been awful, posting a 4.13 ERA 1.36 WHIP. On the road that ERA dips below 4.00 while his WHIP stands at 1.22. Pelfrey has seen the 'under' cash in four of his last six trips to the hill. A's starter Sonny Gray is essentially auditioning for other teams right now as the A's shop him prior to the trade deadline. He's been doing an excellent job, allowing just two earned runs in 15 innings over his last two outings. Gray owns a 3.56 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, yet his starts here in Oakland are averaging just shy of 12 totals runs per contests. That's not a sustainable trend as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 15-1 | Win | 105 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Jays aren't hitting much right now but I do expect them to do some damage against Drew Pomeranz on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile the Red Sox got rolling at the plate late in Friday's series opener and kept it going yesterday afternoon. They should have little trouble getting to Jays starter Joe Biagini on Sunday. We're being offered excellent value to back the 'over' here thanks to the Jays offensive woes. Look for a high-scoring affair at Rogers Centre. Take the over (10*). |
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06-29-17 | Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Dodgers and Angels at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Thursday night. The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the hill for this one. He hasn't exactly been lights out lately but he's more than capable of rising to the occasion against the Halos on Thursday. Kershaw will be making his first road start in over two weeks. Note that he has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP away from home this season. Kershaw has worked at least seven innings and given up a grand total of just two earned runs over his last three starts against the Angels. JC Ramirez will counter for the Halos. He bounced back from a dreadful start against the Royals, allowing only one earned run over six innings at Fenway Park last time out. That's the type of outing he can certainly build off of here. Despite his 5.10 home ERA, games with Ramirez on the mound have totaled under 8.5 runs this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-17 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 55.5 | 39-43 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this Thursday's rematch in Calgary. The Redblacks have had no answers for the Stampeders offense in Calgary in recent years, giving up 48, 48 and 38 points in their last three meetings on this field. While I'm not sure they can do much more to slow the Stamps down this week, I do expect their own offense to show up. Ottawa didn't play particularly well offensively in last week's season-opener as QB Trevor Harris struggled at times in his first game since taking over the reins from a retired Henry Burris. With that being said, Harris still threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Look for both offenses to look sharper than they did a week ago as we see another shootout in Calgary. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 9-15 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense came to life in New York over the weekend, scoring 15 runs in back-to-back victories over the Yankees. I'm not sure they'll enjoy as much success against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians on Monday, however. Cole Hamels will get his first start since April for the Rangers. He had been pitching well before hitting the D.L. Note that Hamels has worked at least six innings in four of his five starts this season. He has faced the Indians once this season, giving up three earned runs over six innings. Carlos Carrasco has been lights out for Cleveland this season and he's been particularly sharp lately, posting a 1.53 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. The 'under' is 11-3 in Carrasco's 14 starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-17 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 55.5 | 31-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Ottawa on Friday night. This is of course a rematch of last year's Grey Cup showdown, which the Redblacks won by a 39-33 score. I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair here, and like the fact that the total hasn't moved much at all since opening. The Stampeders will have little trouble marching the football up and down the field this season, plain and simple. While I don't love the Redblacks stable of running backs, they should make up for it with outstanding QB Trevor Harris, who takes over the reins full-time from retired Henry Burris. This one is being tabbed as a shootout and that's precisely how I look for it to play out on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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06-23-17 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 9 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Veteran John Lackey will take the ball for the Cubs. He's worked at least six innings in three of his last four outings, with one of those starts coming against the same Marlins club he'll face on Friday night. I look for him to build on his most recent start here, in which he gave up just one earned run on two hits over six innings in Pittsburgh last weekend. Jose Urena has impressed for the Marlins this season, going 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA. He has worked exactly six innings in back-to-back outings, giving up only six hits and three earned runs along the way. Urena will be in for a tough challenge after the Cubs offense busted out last night but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-17 | Tigers v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Tuesday night. Jordan Zimmermann will take the ball for the Tigers. He continues to cruise along having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Last time out, Zimmermann came out on the wrong end of a 2-1 decision against the D'Backs, but tossed eight solid innings, allowing only two earned runs on six hits while striking out six and not issuing a single walk. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Mariners starter Ariel Miranda's most recent outing. He was roughed up for six earned runs on 10 hits over four innings against the Twins in that start. Prior to that he had given up two earned runs or less in six straight outings. I look for a return to form here. This has been an 'under' series recently and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-17 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Thursday night. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for the Yankees. He's been locked in over his last two outings, allowing just eight hits and two earned runs over 13 innings of work. He needed only 94 pitches to get through seven innings against a tough Orioles lineup last time out. Sonny Gray will counter for Oakland. He has labored through his last few trips to the hill but did show some positives signs in his most recent start, giving up two earned runs while striking out 10 in 6 1/3 innings. He needed 99 pitches to get through that outing. The 'over' has gone 7-1 in Gray's eight starts this season but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-17 | Diamondbacks v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Tuesday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for the D'Backs. He labored through his most recent start back on June 7th but should bounce back here. His 3.90 road ERA isn't overly impressive, but he has posted a strong 1.18 ERA on the highway. His last two road outings have produced only seven and five total runs. Buck Farmer will counter for Detroit. He's been outstanding through two starts this season, allowing only six hits over 13 1/3 shutout innings. Along the way he's struck out 16 hitters. Farmer had really struggled at the big league level prior to this season, but for now at least, he's put it together. I believe he can keep the D'Backs in check on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 231 | 120-129 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll keep things simple here and back the 'under' in what could be the championship clincher for the Warriors. Golden State was flat out embarrassed in Game 4 of this series on Friday night. Expect a much sharper effort from the Warriors back home, where they'll look to make amends for a dreadful defensive performance. On the flip side, the Cavs aren't going to go away quietly. That was certainly evident on Friday night. If Cleveland is going to get this series back home for a sixth game, it will need to bring its 'A' game defensively, and can ill afford to get involved in another track meet. Even if this one does turn out to be a track meet there's no assurance it gets 'over' this monster total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Saturday night. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He has worked exactly six innings in four of his last six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those outings. Stroman brings excellent form to the table having given up just 14 hits over his last three starts, spanning 17 2/3 innings. Ariel Miranda will counter for Seattle. He's coming off one of the best outings of his career, tossing a complete game victory against the Rays last time out. He has allowed only 17 hits over his last five starts, spanning 31 innings. The Jays haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball on this road trip. I look for Miranda to keep them in check on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The total continues to rise as this series progresses, and potentially wraps up on Friday night. I believe the oddsmakers have set the number too high on Friday night. This could very well be the Cavaliers last stand, and I don't expect them to go down without a fight. In order to hang around for four quarters, they're going to need to turn up their defensive game, however. After completely collapsing defensively in the closing minutes of Game 3, I look for them to come out with plenty of fire on Friday night. On the flip side, the Warriors have been able to manhandle the Cavs offense at times during this series. With a championship within their grasp I look for their best defensive effort of the series on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the last two games, but I see this one playing out a lot more like the series opener. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday afternoon. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total low enough. Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nationals. He'll certainly be up for this showdown with arguably baseball's best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw. Note that Strasburg has worked at least seven innings in three consecutive outings. Over that stretch he has posted a 33:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Clayton Kershaw had a rough outing against the Cubs two starts back. However, he rebounded last time out, striking out 14 over seven innings of two-hit ball in a 2-1 win over the Brewers. Kershaw has posted a 2.59 ERA at home this season. This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. Obviously matchups like this don't always play out that way, but here I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-17 | Marlins v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The wind has us dealing with a low total at Wrigley Field tonight, but I believe we’re in for a fairly high-scoring affair between the surging Marlins and defending champion Cubs. Miami is rolling along right now, and scoring runs in bunches. I don’t expect Cubs starter Eddie Butler to hold them down tonight. Butler has posted some pretty pedestrian numbers this season, a 4.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He labored through his most recent outing, allowing seven hits and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings of work. He’s lasted beyond the fifth inning in just one of his four starts this season. Dan Straily will take the ball for the Marlins. He has actually impressed so far, going 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. I don’t see this as an ideal spot for the right-hander, however, as the Cubs got back in gear with a series sweep of the rival Cardinals over the weekend, scoring seven runs in last night’s victory. Straily has proven to be very hittable over his last two outings, allowing 15 hits over 12 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-17 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Friday night. We're looking at a pitching matchup between two underrated arms. Ty Blach will take the ball for the Giants. The left-hander has gone 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA 1.18 WHIP this season and has been at his absolute best lately, working at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. He needed less than 100 pitches to get through two of those four outings. Jarad Eickhoff will counter for the Phillies. Despite lasting only 5 1/3 innings last time out, he did show some positive signs in an eventual 4-3 win over the Reds. Eickhoff has needed to throw north of 100 pitches on only one occasion this season. Neither of these lineups have been tearing the cover off of the ball lately and I expect more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. Perhaps the long layoff between games will lead to a little rust and this one will cruise 'under' the total, but I don't see it playing out that way on the floor. Don't think for a second that either of these star-studded teams will back down one bit, or hold anything back in the Finals opener on Thursday night. I'm anticipating a hard-fought game, but also plenty of offense. Of course, the oddsmakers and the betting marketplace in general feels that way as well as totals in this range in the Finals are extremely rare. That doesn't mean it's not warranted, however. Note that the Warriors average just under 119 points per game on their home floor this season. For their part, the Cavs have put up north of 109 points per contest on the road. Both regular season meetings stayed 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-17 | Cubs v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Diego at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for the Cubs. He hasn't gotten off to the start that most were expecting but has settled down a little lately, working exactly six innings in each of his last three outings and needing 95 pitches or less to get through two of those starts. In the other he didn't allow a single earned run. Luis Perdomo will counter for the Padres. He's had just one truly bad start this season and the 'under' has cashed in four of his last six trips to the hill. Last time out he faced a tough challenge in Washington, but held the Nationals to just three earned runs on six hits over six innings of work. Note that Perdomo hasn't received a great deal of run support, just north of three runs per start. Take the under (10*). |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘over’ in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, thanks in large part to a few scoring outbursts in the first half. Things settled down as the game progressed and after the Celtics pulled off a shocking upset, I expect to see the Cavs come out fired up on Tuesday night. That lends itself to a lower-scoring affair as far as I’m concerned as I believe we’ll see Cleveland really step up its defensive game. On the flip side, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens was less than pleased with his team’s defensive efforts in the first two games of this series and they answered the bell in the second half on Sunday. Expect some carry-over, although likely with a different end result on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday night. The Celtics were flat out embarrassed on Friday night in Boston and now with Isaiah Thomas sidelined, few are giving them any shot at keeping things competitive in Game 3 on Sunday. I do think we'll see the C's come out with plenty of energy, however, and I'm confident they'll do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. On the flip side, Boston has yet to show that it is capable of providing any sort of resistance defensively. The Cavs will once again run wild and hang another crooked number on the scoreboard. Simply put, I believe this total has been set too low. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-17 | Indiana Fever v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 158 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Phoenix on Wednesday night. The Fever are coming off a tough five-point loss in Seattle in their season-opener. If nothing else, it was an encouraging performance from the Indiana offense, certainly something to build off of as it heads to Phoenix for this one. The Mercury were involved in an uncharacteristically low-scoring affair against Dallas - a game they lost by a 68-58 score. Veteran Diana Taurasi turned in a particularly disappointing effort, contributing only three points on 1-of-11 shooting. I certainly expect her to respond favorably in this one. The Mercury as a whole should shoot far better from beyond the arc, after connecting on only 4-of-19 attempts from three-point range in their season debut. The last meeting between these two teams last September totaled 167 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I simply believe this total has been set far too high. Cleveland played two regular season games here in Boston, and those contests totaled 202 and 205 points. The Cavs have by no means been a defensive powerhouse this season, but after facing the Wizards for seven games, - one of the league's worst defensive teams - the Celtics will certainly be stepping up in class here. Of course, one of the big reasons we're dealing with such a high total here is the fact that Boston's aforementioned series with Washington went 'over' the total in five of seven games. Meanwhile, the 'over' went 3-1 in the Cavs series sweep of the Raptors last round. Cleveland has yet to face any resistance in these playoffs but will face a tougher test than some are expecting here against a scrappy Celtics squad. Boston may not win this game, but I do expect it to give Cleveland a run in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 208.5 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Golden State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again on Tuesday. The Spurs will likely be without Kawhi Leonard for this one, which you would assume would strike a real blow to their defensive game. However, I feel Leonard's potential absence hurts them just as much offensively, particularly in this matchup. The Warriors are certainly a better defensive squad than they showed in the first half of Game 1 on Sunday. They righted the ship as the game progressed and I expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The 'over' has cashed in the Warriors last two games. The last time that happened in these playoffs their next contest totaled only 200 points and cruised 'under'. Expect more of the same. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 212 | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs didn't seem to miss Tony Parker after he went down to a season-ending injury early in their second round series against the Rockets. I do think they'll miss him as they open the West Finals against the Warriors on Sunday, however. Of course, that's particularly true at the offensive end of the floor. I do believe we'll see the Spurs hold their own defensively, even in the face of a world class Warriors offense. Getting Kawhi Leonard back after a one game absence obviously helps in that department. On the flip side, I'm confident the Warriors can and will do a better job of containing the Spurs offense than the defenseless Rockets did last round. The 'over' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings between these two teams but I look for a different story to unfold here in the postseason. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday. The Wizards simply didn't show up defensively in Beantown on Wednesday. With their backs against the wall I do expect them to make amends for that awful performance here. After all, it is a win or go (stay) home scenario. Meanwhile, we've yet to really see the Celtics ratchet up the defensive pressure in this series like they did in the opening round against Chicago. But with a ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals in their grasp, I do look for them to tighten things up on Friday. Game 5 was played extremely loose at both ends of the floor. In this, the first elimination game of this series, I'm looking for a different story to unfold. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-17 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these clubs are scoring with much consistency right now. Entering Wednesday's action, the Pirates had plated 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1 and 3 runs over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, the D'Backs had scored 1, 2, 6, 1, 2 and 3 runs in their last six games. Things aren't likely to come easy at the dish on Thursday as we have a fine pitching matchup on tap. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the Buccos. He's just 1-3 this season and 0-1 over his last three starts, but in that same period he has posted an incredible 1.35 ERA and 0.60 WHIP so he has obviously turned the corner after a shaky start to the campaign. Same goes for D'Backs ace Zack Greinke as he has given up just seven earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 27 innings of work. Note that Greinke has never faced the Pirates as a member of the D'Backs. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 215 | 101-123 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Beantown on Wednesday night. The winner in each game of this series has put up at least 111 points but that's a trend I see ending on Wednesday night. I'm just not sure the two offenses can keep it up. These two teams are very familiar with one another and at some point, I believe we're going to see things tighten up considerably. We didn't see it in Washington, even though one of the two games did stay 'under' the total. I look for some major push back from the Celtics after back-to-back losses in which they simply didn't show up defensively. Meanwhile, the Wizards can't play much worse defensively than they did in the first two games in Boston. Keep in mind, two of four regular season matchups in this series did stay 'under' the total we're dealing with on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-17 | Mariners v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-6 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Wednesday afternoon. Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for Seattle. He's pitched well in two of his last three outings, with his lone rough start coming in a tough matchup against the Indians in Cleveland. He should be reasonably comfortable facing the Phillies for the sixth time in his career. The 'under' is 4-1 in his previous five outings against them. Zach Eflin will counter for Philadelphia. He continues to pitch exceptionally well but does so well beneath the betting radar. Eflin has worked seven innings in each of his last three starts, needing only 89, 103 and 99 pitches to get through those outings. The 'over' is 3-1 in his four previous starts this season, but he's given up two earned runs or less in three of those games. I don't see him getting a ton of run support in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Boston and Washington at 8 pm et on Thursday. There will come a time to jump ship from playing the ‘over’ in this series, but I’m not sure we’ve reached that point yet. Game 2 was another thriller with Boston ultimately winning by 10 points in overtime, the score once again eclipsing the total with relative ease in regulation time. I’m not sure we’ll see things slow down at all as the scene shifts to Washington for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Wizards have come out on fire in the first two games of this series and will certainly have motivation on their side on Thursday as they aim to avoid an 0-3 hole. But don’t count on the Celtics backing down from the challenge. Note that Boston has now won six games in a row since falling behind 2-0 at home against the Bulls in round one. Both teams will come out and look to push the pace and force their opponents’ hand once again. Count on another barnburner. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-17 | A's v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Wednesday night. Kendall Graveman and Hector Santiago certainly aren't household names, but both starters have pitched exceptionally well in the early going this season. Graveman has really come into his own, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first four starts. Graveman did manage to win 10 games for a weak A's club last year, but also suffered 11 losses and posted an ERA just north of four. I look for him to improve on those numbers here in 2017. Santiago was on the wrong end of a 14-3 loss in Texas last time out but it was really no fault of his, as he gave up only two earned runs over five innings. Santiago is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through five outings this season. The A's haven't done much at the dish, at least not with much consistency. The Twins have been far better in that department but will come back to earth. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-17 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment to this total heading into Game 2 but I'm not sure it will be enough. We won with the 'over' in the series opener on Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Raptors can certainly play better offensively. Yes, the Cavs were able to manhandle the Raps at times in Game 1 but they're by no means the elite shutdown defensive squad they once were. The Raps knew winning in Cleveland was going to be a tall task in this series so there's no reason to get overly discouraged after falling by a 116-105 score in the opener. On the flip side, I don't believe Toronto will have any defensive answers for Cleveland - no different than we saw in Game 1. The Cavs got all the looks they wanted and will continue to push the pace on Wednesday night. Save for that meaningless game on the final night of the regular season, this has been a very high-scoring series of late. Expect more of the same in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll see a matchup of two underrated starting pitchers on Tuesday night in Seattle as the Angels hand the ball to Matt Shoemaker against James Paxton of the Mariners. Shoemaker has put together a string of solid outings and should be comfortable pitching on the road, where he has made three of his first five starts this season. Shoemaker struggled in his lone previous start against the Mariners this season but since then has given up just six earned runs over three starts. Paxton has been lights out for Seattle, going 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. We’re dealing with a small sample size as he has pitched only 32 1/3 innings but those numbers are still worth noting. Seattle has had a tough time consistently putting runs on the board and I believe that could plague it once again in this spot, lending itself to a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 218 | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘over’ in the opener of this series on Sunday afternoon and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Tuesday night. The Wizards came out loose and scored 64 points in the first half of Sunday’s series opener but were ultimately undone by a 16-point third quarter. I did like the way the Wiz responded following that quarter. Rather than folding the tent they came out and put 31 points on the board in the final frame, still falling well short in a 123-111 setback. I’m not convinced the Celtics will be able to slow down the Wizards for prolonged stretches in this series but it may not matter as Boston is rolling offensively. Despite being afforded the opportunity to take its foot off the gas in several games against the Bulls last round, Boston still routinely put up over 100 points. It’s in the Celtics nature to push the tempo and after that formula worked in Game 1, I don’t expect to see much change on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. The O’s will give Alec Asher his second start of the young season. Asher’s lone previous start came in Toronto back on April 15th. He allowed only three hits and one earned run over 6 1/3 innings in that one. He’s also appeared in two innings of relief, including a one-inning effort against the Red Sox last week. Boston will turn to its ace Chris Sale. Luck hasn’t been on the left-hander’s side so far as he has gone just 1-2 despite a stellar 1.19 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His 52:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 37 2/3 innings is downright incredible. Both of these teams can his but I believe Tuesday’s total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I believe this total will prove too low on Monday night. The Raptors have obviously been in this position before after facing the Cavs in last year's East Finals. I expect to see them play loose in Monday's series opener, keeping in mind, the Cavs haven't been the same dominant defensive team we've seen in years' past. The Cavs are giving up just shy of 105 points per game at home this season. On the flip side, they're averaging around 113 points per game themselves, so track meets have been the norm on this floor. Meanwhile, the Raptors score over 101 while also giving up that same number on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached only 181 points but that came on the final night of the regular season when most regular starters sat out. Their previous meeting totaled 228 points back in December. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-17 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the Bronx on Monday night. The Jays still aren't scoring, but they did manage to notch back-to-back wins over the Rays on the weekend to finally win their first series of the season. I look for Marco Estrada to keep their string of strong starting performances going on Monday. Estrada remains winless through five starts this season but has posted a stellar 2.70 ERA. That number drops to 0.95 over his last three trips to the hill. He worked at least seven innings and gave up three earned runs or less in three of four outings against the Yankees last season. Luis Severino will counter for New York. He has really come into his own this season, going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through four starts. Severino has recorded an incredible 33:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in his last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics offense is rolling along right now, and I don't expect them to face a great deal of resistance against the Wizards, who have allowed over 109 points per game on the road this season. For their part, the C's have averaged 109 points per game at home this season. Boston scored 104 points or more in each game while reeling off four straight wins to close out the Bulls last round. The Wizards won't go away quietly in this series opener, however. They've scored north of 100 points in all four regular season meetings with the Celtics. Washington put up its highest scoring output of its first round series against Atlanta in the series clincher, scoring 115 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-17 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 1 of this much-anticipated showdown between the Pens and Caps. Last year, we saw four of six playoff games between these two play 'under' the total. In the regular season, three of four matchups sailed over the total but that's not a trend I see continuing here in the postseason. The Pens were rock solid in their own end at the start of their series with the Blue Jackets, but suffered a bit of a lull as the series went on. They know they'll need to be much sharper in order to handle a Caps offense that is probably better than it showed against the Leafs in round one. Meanwhile, Washington also knows what it's in for in this series. It can ill afford to get involved in high-scoring shootouts against a team as capable as the Pens. Braden Holtby seemed to get better for Washington as the opening round went on. Look for some carry-over here in the opener of this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | 5-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two division rivals last night, and I’m expecting more of the same on Wednesday. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A’s. Save for some control issues, he’s done a good job of minimizing the damage in his last two starts, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over 11 innings of work. Two starts back Manaea held the Astros hitless over five frames but did issue five walks compared to six strikeouts. He’ll be looking to make amends for a rocky outing against the Angels in his season debut. Matt Shoemaker will counter for Los Angeles. Like Manaea, he has settled down after a bit of a shaky start to the campaign, allowing eight hits and four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in his last two trips to the hill – both on the road. Off back-to-back solid outings from Angels starters, I look for Shoemaker to continue that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 202 | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers continue to shift the total downward in this series but I'm still not sure it will prove to be enough. The tide has turned in the series, with the last two matchups in Chicago reaching 191 and 199 points. The Bulls offense hasn't been able to get back in gear since losing Rajon Rondo to injury. Now that they've given the Celtics life, I believe they'll have a tough time getting back on track with the scene shifting back to Boston. Chicago may no longer be an elite defensive team, but it has been one of the best 'under' bets in the NBA this season, posting a 34-51-1 o/u record. Look for the Celtics to build off of the strong defensive efforts they displayed in Chicago and make amends for giving up 106 and 111 points in Game 1 and 2 losses, respectively. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-17 | Predators v. Blues UNDER 5 | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and St. Louis at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Wednesday night. The two goaltenders in this matchup, Pekka Rinne and Jake Allen, both played lights out in the opening round. I expect to see them pick up where they left off in the opener of this series. I also expect to see a bit of a feeling out process early in this series. Yes, these two teams are familiar with one another having faced off five times during the regular season, but this will be only their second matchup since the beginning of January. Note also that the losing team scored one goal or less in four of five regular season meetings. The 'under' went 3-1-1 in those five contests. As we saw in the opening round, both teams are capable of putting the puck in the net with some consistency. But I'm expecting a far tighter-checking series than either team has faced so far. Take the under (10*). |
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