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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This may look like a high posted total but it's not really all that high by today's NFL standards. The Colts may not appear all that imposing on offense with WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle sidelined and Andrew Luck still working his way back into form but we certainly saw positive signs from Luck last week as Indy finally 'lifted the lid' so to speak on their now-healthy quarterback. The Colts will be facing a middle of the road, not to mention banged-up New England defense - one that surprisingly held up well against the Dolphins last Sunday, allowing only a late fourth quarter touchdown. Indy does have a couple of offensive weapons that can thrive in this matchup in pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines and TE Eric Ebron. The Patriots couldn't be catching the Colts defense at a better time. Indianapolis has had to play a lot of football over the last couple of weeks and has a number of key defenders either listed as out or questionable to play in this one. Tom Brady will get arguably his favorite target back on the field this week as WR Julian Edelman returns from suspension. TE Rob Gronkowski may not be healthy but I'm not sure it matters. The emergence of RB Sony Michel last week gives the Pats another strong element to their offense. Playing at home for the second straight game following a blowout victory only helps their cause. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 68 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've already cashed 'under' tickets in games involving both of these teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play again on Thursday night. Tulsa has actually seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. We won with the 'under' in the Golden Hurricane's most recent contest - a 31-17 loss at Temple. It's worth noting that while they did allow 30+ points in that one, they actually didn't give up an offensive score to the Owls until the second quarter. Tempe was buoyed by a pair of defensive touchdowns in that game. The only other time Tulsa traveled this season it held Texas to 28 points, albeit in a losing effort. The Golden Hurricane defense will be facing its toughest test of the season here, but at least it comes in fresh, having just not played since September 20th. Houston also enters this game off its bye week. The Cougars offense has been every bit as good and maybe even better than advertised this season. Save for a wild game against Texas Tech, their defense has been serviceable as well, and draws a favorable matchup against a limited Tulsa offense here. Note that Houston hasn't scored more than 38 points in this matchup since back in 2011 (the two teams have met five times since). I believe they'll have to get well north of that number to threaten this total on Thursday night. It's worth mentioning that the Cougars are without RB Terence Williams, who had run for 142 yards on 25 carries, good for 5.7 yards per rush, before getting injured. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 AAC contests. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 57 | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
NCAAF Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Troy at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in games involving both of these teams earlier this season but I still believe it's the right play on Thursday night as they match up at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last two road games against Troy but last year managed only 10 points against the Trojans, at home no less, and I believe this is one of the weaker Panthers offenses we've seen in recent years. Don't count on a repeat performance after Georgia State put up 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. Prior to that the Panthers had scored just 68 points through their first four games combined. Since allowing 59 points in a weeknight matchup with Memphis back on September 14th, Georgia State has shown some improvement on the defensive side of the football. The very next week the Panthers didn't give up a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Western Michigan. Last Saturday they shut out Louisiana Monroe over the final two quarters and nine minutes of football. Troy has absolutely tightened things up defensively since getting trounced by Boise State in its season-opener. The Trojans offense has been rolling along as well but might have to rein it in a bit playing on a short week here. Note that Troy has scored just 21, 31 and 34 points in its last three matchups against Georgia State. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Monday night as AFC West rivals the Chiefs and Broncos go head-to-head. Kansas City is of course built for 'overs' with an electric, high-scoring offense and a porous defense. The Chiefs have been lit up both on the ground and through the air through three games this season and nothing figures to change as they face a versatile Broncos offense on Monday night. Denver's offense got derailed in Baltimore last Sunday but faces a more favorable matchup at home here. Note that the Broncos lost breakout rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in last week's contest. He figures to make an impact against a Chiefs defense that has allowed over five yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. Broncos QB Case Keenum is in a strong bounce-back spot here and should continue to build on his solid rapport with WR Emmanuel Sanders against a very beatable Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes should have a field day throwing on a Broncos secondary that has really struggled this season. Gone are the days of Denver absolutely shutting down opposing passing games. While it does boast a solid pass rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to beat whatever opposing defenses have thrown at him and I expect nothing different here. This is certainly a high total by NFL standards but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three straight relatively low-scoring Sunday Night Football matchups to start the season but I look for a different story to unfold this week. While we were previously accustomed to seeing defensive slugfests between the Ravens and Steelers, that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Both of these teams are built on the strength of their offense right now, not necessarily by design in the Ravens case, and that should lead to another high-scoring showdown on Sunday night. The Ravens will get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension in their next game, which is really a game too late as they're in line to get lit up by a loaded Steelers passing game here. We've yet to see Antonio Brown really go off, although we did see signs of it happening this past Monday in Tampa. This should be the game where AB does put up some monster numbers against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. I also look for Steelers RB James Conner to take a more prominent role, not just running the football, but in the passing game as well. The Ravens offense has really taken off over the last seven or eight games going back to last season. While they're not flashy by any means with Joe Flacco under center, they continue to put up points on a consistent basis. Here they'll be facing a bottom of the barrel Steelers defense that hasn't been able to do anything to limit opposing passing games this season. Even on Monday night, when it looked like Pittsburgh had the game in the bag, they let the Bucs bomb away and ultimately pull within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Expect a high-scoring, back and forth affair at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as yet another shootout involving the Saints, who stay on the road to face the Giants. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the entire league right now - a stark contrast to what we saw from the Saints a year ago. Now they'll have to face a Giants offense that found its footing in last week's win in Houston. Eli Manning did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly and utilizing the short passing game, leading to a 27-point outburst against the Texans. Manning and the Giants offense draw another favorable matchup here. The question is, can the G-Men slow down the Saints explosive offense. After suffering a hiccup against an underrated Browns defense, the Saints bounced back in a big way last Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta. There's little reason to expect any regression here, noting that the Giants have had no success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Given a clean pocket, Brees should have no trouble carving this New York defense. Perhaps no offensive player is performing as well as Saints RB Alvin Kamara right now and he is in for another big day both on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As long as the Bucs continue to play a hyper-aggressive style of offense and no defense whatsoever, they’re an automatic ‘over’ play, even against a quality defensive opponent such as the Bears. Chicago is coming off back-to-back low-scoring games but those results were definitely matchup-driven as they came against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Here, they’ll face their toughest challenge since wilting in the second half against the Packers back in Week 1. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t exactly been lighting up opposing defenses – far from it, in fact – but he does draw a favorable matchup here and I like the effort Chicago made to get RB Jordan Howard more involved not only on the ground but in the passing game as well last week. He works as a focal point of this offense. Meanwhile, Trubisky continues to build a stronger rapport with TE Trey Burton and has clearly found a favorite target in WR Allen Robinson. There are enough positives to take away from the Bears offense over the first three games to believe that they can put up some points against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will undoubtedly continue to bomb away in hopes of baiting the Bears into a shootout here. This could be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last start for a while should he falter so we can be confident knowing that he’ll go down swinging at the very least. Note that it's been made official on Friday that Bears corner Prince Amukamara will not play on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 70 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve split a pair of ‘under’ plays involving Ohio State over the last weeks but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While this showdown certainly has shootout potential, I simply feel that the total has been set too high, largely as a result of last year’s wild 39-38 affair in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense didn’t give Tulane anything last Saturday, in what was potentially a nightmare sandwich spot in between games against TCU and Penn State. Keep in mind, a week earlier Ohio State held up well enough to earn a 40-28 win over TCU, not allowing a single point in the fourth quarter of what was a fairly tight game at the time. Offensively, there’s no question the Buckeyes are a juggernaut but they will face a tough test on Saturday night in Happy Valley. Penn State knows it will need to be sharper defensively than it was last week, when it gave up a pair of first half touchdowns against Illinois. For their part, the Nittany Lions didn’t really explode offensively until they had worn down the Illini in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offense has been incredible, but like the Buckeyes, will be facing their toughest test of the season to date by a longshot here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech UNDER 65.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in two straight and three of Bowling Green's four games overall this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. It's certainly worth noting that in the Falcons last game against Miami-Ohio last week, we saw only 34 total points through the first three quarters. Despite a wild 27-point fourth quarter, the game still stayed 'under' the number we're working with this week. The Falcons certainly haven't been great defensively this season but I feel they catch a less than daunting matchup, albeit against a Power Five opponent on Saturday afternoon. Georgia Tech has put up only 40 points over its last two games after scoring a whopping 79 points in its first two contests. Of course, the matchups have dictated the Yellow Jackets offensively struggles, although failing to reach the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter against a relatively weak Pitt defines two weeks ago was concerning to be sure. While this should be a layup for Georgia Tech, I'm just not sure we're going to see them go off offensively. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets defines should 'get right' in this matchup. The Falcons will probably look like they're going in slow motion after going up against Clemson last Saturday. It will likely take a shootout to get 'over' this lofty total - I'm not sure we'll see one develop on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Syracuse v. Clemson UNDER 66 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two squads in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon. I'm not sure we'll see both teams contribute enough to get 'over' the inflated total, however. Syracuse has been rolling offensively, but has also had the benefit of playing each of its last three games on the fast track at the Carrier Dome. Even in a shocking upset win over the Tigers at home last season, the Orange still scored 'only' 27 points. The last time they played in this stadium they were shutout in a blowout loss back in 2016. Clemson is on point defensively right now, having allowed just 61 points through four games. It's not as if the Tigers have been facing all cupcake opponents either, with two road games against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. While the Tigers offense can be electric, I do still feel the Orange defense is slightly underrated entering this one. When they needed to step up against Florida State two weeks ago, they did so in a big way, allowing just seven points in a blowout victory. I don't expect to see the Syracuse defense completely wilt under the pressure on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 60 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at AT&T Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The last time these two teams met last September we saw a wild game with Arkansas prevailing by a 50-43 score. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that Arkansas has scored a grand total of just 47 points over its last three games after putting up 55 points against FCS squad Eastern Illinois in its season-opener. While last week’s beatdown at the hands of Auburn was somewhat expected, there’s really no excuse for putting up only 17 points against North Texas, at home no less, the week previous. In that game, we didn’t see the ‘Hogs reach the end zone until the second quarter and not again until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when UNT was in full prevent defense mode. Defensively, I will give Arkansas credit for giving up just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters against Auburn last week. Special teams have been a bit of an issue for the ‘Hogs but that’s not really something we can account for when handicapping the total here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Texas A&M’s blowout loss at Alabama last Saturday, but it’s not as if the total was torched in that contest and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that prior to that, the Aggies had allowed only 45 points combined through their first three games. Even in a tough matchup against Clemson, the Aggies gave up just two first half touchdowns and nothing at all in the fourth quarter of what turned out to be a nail-biter. Offensively, I’ll point out that A&M only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe two games back, with that game ultimately turning on a late first half blocked field goal for a touchdown. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between UCLA and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Boulder on Friday night. The UCLA offense has had a tough time getting things going in its first year under the guidance of Chip Kelly, scoring a grand total of just 52 points through three games. This does have the feel of a ‘clean slate’ game, however, as the Bruins head out on the road for their first Pac-12 game of the season. And they’ll be facing a Colorado defense that probably isn’t quite as good as the stats may indicate, as it has faced a weak Colorado State offense and an FCS opponent in New Hampshire in two of its first three games this season. In the Buffaloes other game, they allowed well over 500 total yards of offense in a wild 33-28 victory over Nebraska. The good news for Colorado is that its offense has been better than anticipated and I don’t believe the UCLA defense will offer a great deal of resistance on Friday night. Colorado scored three offensive touchdowns in the first half against UNH last Saturday and it was a breakout performance by RB Travon McMillian as he ran for 162 yards on only 15 carries. Of course, the offense evolves around experienced QB Steven Montez. He didn’t have to do much against UNH last time out, but in his first two games, threw for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He should have a field day against a very beatable UCLA defense that is still finding its way in the early going and just allowed five offensive touchdowns in a blowout loss against Fresno State, at home no less. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 67 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Memphis and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in New Orleans on Friday night. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s blowout loss at Ohio State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well in this spot. Yes, the Green Wave got absolutely torched defensively against the Buckeyes but that was to be expected. Keep in mind, in their previous game, also on the road, they limited UAB to just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters. They held up well in their previous contest as well, albeit against FCS squad Nicholls State, not allowing a touchdown until the final 30 seconds of the first half en route to a 42-17 win. And of course in their season-opener they limited a pretty good Wake Forest offense to only 17 points in regulation time. While Memphis is certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, most of the Tigers damage has been done at home this season. In their lone road tilt, they scored just one first half touchdown in an eventual 22-21 win over Navy (I will point out that weather conditions were not favorable in that contest). Memphis’ other three games have all resulted in blowout victories, and it has scored 66, 59 and 52 points. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown from the offense here as it hits the road for the first time since September 8th to face a 1-3 Tulane squad that certainly doesn’t draw a great deal of motivation. The Green Wave offense is not good this year and Memphis will certainly be focusing on playing better defensively after giving up 35 points against South Alabama last week. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL OVER 55.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC matchup on Thursday night. North Carolina got off to a shaky start offensively this season but has been getting sharper with each passing week. Last Saturday, the Tar Heels pulled out a wild 38-35 victory over Pitt - their first win of the season. I look for them to build on that performance here, even against a quality Miami squad that has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a real stinker against LSU. Since getting off to a sluggish start against the Tigers, the Miami offense has exploded, scoring 171 points over its last 13 quarters of football. I don't expect the Tar Heels to offer all that much resistance here. Last week, North Carolina allowed four first half touchdowns against Pittsburgh. The last two meetings in this series have been low-scoring, totaling just 33 and 43 points. Keep in mind, this is the earliest matchup between these two teams since way back in 2008. It's worth noting that contest did play 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I don't see where the stops come from in this non-conference showdown on Monday night. The Steelers have been absolutely torched by two offenses at opposite ends of the spectrum in the Browns and Chiefs. The Bucs enter this matchup absolutely rolling on offense, and playing an extremely aggressive style that should bode well against a weak Steelers defense. The problem for Tampa Bay is, it will be going up against a supremely talented, not to mention highly motivated Steelers offense. We've yet to see Pittsburgh's best offensively but I believe there's a good chance we witness just that on Monday night. RB James Conner has had little trouble filling the absent Le'Veon Bell's role. Meanwhile, we can anticipate a big game out of WR Antonio Brown following last week's frustrations. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the L.A. Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. As long as linebacker Joey Bosa remains sidelined, the Chargers defense will continue to struggle. He’s out again this week and that leaves them in a really tough spot against one of the league’s best offenses in the Rams. There’s little reason to expect the Chargers to offer any sort of resistance against Todd Gurley and head coach Sean McVay will continue to put Jared Goff in position to succeed with a wealth of talented weapons around him. The interesting thing is that the ‘under’ has actually cashed in each of the Rams first two games. That has had more to do with the opposition than anything else, as they’ve gone up against two of the league’s more limited offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. They’ll face their first real test here as the Chargers can score. Missing Corey Liuget from the offensive line certainly hurts their cause, but I still expect to see them manufacture a number of scoring drives against this tough Rams defense. Look for Keenan Allen in particular to turn in a big performance after not being asked to do very much against the lowly Bills last Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a shootout at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We’ve actually cashed a number of ‘under’ tickets in this series over the years but I won’t hesitate to switch gears in this particular matchup. The Saints were somewhat surprisingly held to only 21 points against the Browns last Sunday, at home no less. That has most wondering whether they can get rolling again in this tough divisional road game. I don’t think the Saints will have any problem shaking loose offensively in this one, as they go up against a Falcons defense that is banged up, missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Those injuries can’t be understated, especially when you consider the way the Saints like to attack. Look for another big game from New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara, who should be able to enjoy similar success to what we saw from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey last week, when he caught 14 passes. I will say it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the Saints defense right now. Were they just a flash in the pan last season? It’s really too early to tell, but there’s no question the Falcons offense will look to attack early and often and I like the way they mixed things up last week, moving away from Julio Jones a little bit, particularly in the red zone after drawing so many questions following that disappointing Week 1 loss in Philadelphia. That’s not to say Jones won’t make a big impact here. He always seems to bring his ‘A’ game against the Saints and we should see a similar story unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 45 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Green Bay and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins were involved in another low-scoring affair last week, putting only nine points on the board against the Colts. That of course came on the heels of a shutout victory in Arizona the week previous. Those two ‘under’ results are giving us some value with the ‘over’ here in Week 3 as Washington faces its toughest test of the season so far against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a wild 29-29 result against the Vikings last Sunday. While Rodgers didn’t look completely comfortable early on in that game he eventually settled in, completing 30-of-42 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown. I expect to see him expand on those numbers here. I liked the fact that TE Jimmy Graham got going with six catches for 95 yards against the Vikes. He should have continued success against the ‘Skins in this spot. The Washington offense couldn’t get anything going against an improved Indianapolis defense defense last week but will be taking a step down in class here. There are going to be games where the Redskins offense really struggles this season. With that being said, I see this as a matchup they can exploit. The Packers are not all that stout over the middle and Washington has a QB in Alex Smith that excels in the short passing game, with a couple of targets that could be in for big days in TE Jordan Reed and pass-catching RB Chris Thompson. After failing to reach the end zone last week, putting 6’s on the board will clearly be a point of emphasis for Jay Gruden’s squad against the Packers. They know that ending drives with field goals won’t be enough to outlast Aaron Rodgers and that mentality lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair at FedEx Field on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State OVER 66.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between UNLV and Arkansas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. This may not be a traditional shootout as I anticipate both teams ripping off their biggest gains on the ground, but I’m expecting a high-scoring result just the same. UNLV comes in with plenty of positive momentum following back-to-back blowout wins over UTEP and FCS squad Prairie View A&M. In those two games, the Runnin’ Rebels scored a whopping 98 points, thanks in large part to an explosive rushing attack. In each of the last two games, UNLV has had two players run for more than 100 yards and there’s a good chance we’ll see a similar story unfold on Saturday night in Jonesboro. Arkansas State has been involved in three very different games to open the season, and like UNLV has managed to win two of them. The Red Wolves opened the campaign with a rout of Southeast Missouri State before getting their doors blown off at Alabama and finally outlasting Tulsa in a bit of a slugfest last week. A return home should get the Red Wolves offense humming again, noting that QB Justice Hansen threw for six touchdowns in their lone previous contest here. Even against Alabama, Arkansas State was able to get its ground game rolling a little bit and it should have little trouble doing so against a porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have yet to show they can slow anyone down running the football and that should open things up for a wild, back-and-forth affair on Saturday night. We’re dealing with a high posted total for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Lexington on Saturday night. This is a showdown between two undefeated SEC squads and sets up as a potential slugfest as far as I’m concerned. It’s certainly not being priced that way as far as the total goes, however. While Mississippi State’s offense has grabbed all of the attention, it’s been the Bulldogs defense that I’ve been most impressed by. Through three games they’ve allowed a grand total of just 26 points and have yet to give up more than 10 points in a game. Last week’s rout of Louisiana-Lafayette may have looked like and played out like a cupcake matchup, but the Ragin’ Cajuns had scored 49 points in their season-opener and Sun Belt squads never shy away from dialing up their offense in non-conference matchups. The Bulldogs allowed an early first quarter field goal but then held the Ragin’ Cajuns scoreless until more than midway through the fourth quarter in that one. In a tougher test on the road against Kansas State, Mississippi State didn’t allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. Kentucky has given up just 46 points through three games and has seemingly gotten stronger defensively with each passing game. The Wildcats were certainly impressive in their lone true test so far this season, allowing only 16 points on the road against Florida two weeks ago. They held the Gators out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter in that contest. The Kentucky offense scored an early touchdown against Murray State last week but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the final two minutes of the first half. I believe both defenses can keep the opposing offenses at bay for stretches in this Saturday night showdown. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 60.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and Louisiana-Monroe at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a high posted total in this Sun Belt matchup on Saturday night in Monroe and I believe it will prove too high. Troy was involved in a slugfest at Nebraska last week. Of course, that low-scoring affair had a lot to do with the Cornhuskers missing their starting quarterback. Still, I’ll give credit to the Trojans defense for keeping Nebraska out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and not allowing it to get there again until shifting into prevent defense in the game’s final three minutes. Since getting absolutely torched by Boise State in its season-opener, Troy has been able to gain some confidence on the defensive side of the football leading up to this Sun Belt opener. Offensively, it’s tough to know what to make of the Trojans as their lone explosion came at home against FCS squad Florida A&M. I do believe that Louisiana-Monroe can hold up better than it did in last year’s meeting, when it allowed a whopping 51 points. While the Warhawks ultimately lost in blowout fashion on the road against Texas A&M last week, they did hold their own for a while, allowing only two offensive touchdowns in the first half. That game may have turned on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Aggies in the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous, Louisiana-Monroe went on the road and kept Southern Miss out of the end zone for the entire second half in a 21-20 victory. The Warhawks only managed two offensive touchdowns themselves in that one, adding another touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone. This game may have shootout potential but I believe the familiarity between these two squads, along with the fact that both are coming off physical matchups last week, will lead to a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 47.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a relatively low posted total in this game but that number is warranted in my opinion. We missed the mark with the 'under' in TCU's 40-28 loss to Ohio State last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. That game really got away from the Horned Frogs as a result of a couple of defensive scores by the Buckeyes, something we can never truly account for in our handicapping. Here, I look for the Horned Frogs defense to hold up well against a Texas offense that is good but certainly not great. Last week, the Longhorns delivered a 37-14 win over USC although it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter in that game and were ultimately buoyed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in the third quarter. That game saw a scoreless fourth quarter. Note that these two programs met last November and TCU delivered a low-scoring 24-7 victory. This one may not stay in the 30's but I do believe it will stay 'under' the total that we're being offered. To put it simply, this is a matchup between two of the Big 12's best defenses. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 62 | 23-45 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Alabama at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M had little trouble bouncing back from a narrow loss to Clemson one week earlier, as it hammered Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 last Saturday. Now things get a whole lot tougher once again as the Aggies head out on the SEC road to face Alabama. Note that despite scoring 48 points in last week’s rout, the Aggies actually only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half (they scored another on a blocked field goal return). Their ground game ultimately wore out the Warhawks in the second half and they added a couple of late scores to pad their lead, but it’s unlikely we’ll see the Crimson Tide wilt as this game progresses. Alabama has yet to be tested this season, rolling to blowout wins over Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss. I do believe the Tide offense will face some resistance in this one. Remember, the Aggies did manage to limit an outstanding Clemson offense to only two first half touchdowns two weeks ago, and held the Tigers to just 17-of-27 through the air for less than 300 passing yards. Last year’s meeting between these two programs reached only 46 total points. We’re dealing with a much higher total this time around and I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Tulane v. Ohio State UNDER 69 | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Ohio State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure where all of the points are going to come from in this game. Ohio State is coming off a huge 40-28 win over TCU last week and could suffer a bit of a hangover as it returns home to host a cupcake matchup with Tulane. I'm not convinced we'll see the Buckeyes keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in a game that should get out of hand in a hurry. Meanwhile, Tulane scored 42 points in its lone victory over FCS squad Nicholls State but just 41 points in its two other games combined, both losses against Wake Forest and UAB. I have a hard time envisioning the Green Wave scoring more than 14 points in this matchup. If that's the case, Ohio State would have to approach the 60-point mark to eclipse this posted total. I simply feel that this total has gotten out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 55 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams approached the 60-point mark but I expect a much different story to play out on Saturday afternoon. Louisville’s offense isn’t the same in the wake of QB Lamar Jackson’s departure to the NFL. The Cardinals are 2-1 to start the season and that was to be expected given the opened up with Alabama before hosting Indiana State and Western Kentucky. While their poor offensive showing against Indiana State could be blamed largely on bad weather, there was really no excuse for scoring only 20 points, albeit in a win, against Western Kentucky last week. The Cardinals didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that game. While they did give up a pair of first half scores, the Cards defense did toughen up the rest of the way and knows it will have to be even better against a quality opponent in Virginia this week. After manhandling Richmond and allowing only 20 points in a losing effort on the road against Indiana, the Cavaliers were put back on their heels a little bit at home against Ohio last week. That one turned into a shootout early on and we saw Virginia struggling to hang on defensively at times. We have seen this Cavs defense play well for extended stretches this season, however, and a date with the struggling Cardinals offense should benefit them here at home on Saturday. This may not turn out to be a defensive slugfest but I believe asking for nearly seven touchdowns to be scored is a bit much. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 64.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Bulldogs and Tigers renew acquaintances in an early matchup on Saturday afternoon. Georgia has scored 40+ points in all three games so far this season but will be facing its toughest test to date against undefeated Missouri. I think the bigger concern for the Bulldogs will be slowing down a Mizzou offense that has put up an impressive 131 points through three games. Even last week, as the Tigers hit the road for the first time this season, they absolutely lit it up, hanging 27 points on Purdue in the first half alone on the strength of three offensive touchdowns. Doing that against a defense as good as the Bulldogs is another matter entirely, but it is worth noting that they managed to score 28 points against Georgia in last year’s meeting. I like the way the Missouri passing offense sets up against the Bulldogs and I expect to see it bomb away for four quarters on Saturday afternoon. Keeping in mind that Mizzou allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first half against Purdue last week and Georgia hung six touchdowns, including five on offense, against Middle Tennessee State, I don’t believe the ‘Dawgs will have much trouble shredding the Tigers on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC UNDER 53 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and USC at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Friday night. The 'over' has gone a combined 4-2 in games involving these two Pac-12 squads so far this season. Washington State really shook loose offensively last week, scoring 59 points in a blowout win over Eastern Washington but that was to be expected. After facing Wyoming, San Jose State and aforementioned Eastern Washington this will obviously be the Cougars toughest test to date. While the Washington State defense can be vulnerable at times, it's not as if the USC offense has been rolling. The Trojans managed only two touchdowns last Saturday night against Texas. The week previous USC traveled to face Stanford and could only muster a field goal. Even against UNLV, the Trojans didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half. While the Trojans did allow 37 points in Saturday's loss to the Longhorns, it gave up just one touchdown in the first half, and Texas returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown in the third quarter. The 'under' has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series and while we're dealing with a relatively low total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New York and Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is certainly a low posted total by today’s NFL standards but I have a tough time envisioning a game between these two teams eclipsing the number. The Jets absolutely exploded in their Week 1 win at Detroit, on Monday Night Football no less, and it’s apparent that most bettors are willing to give them a pass for last week’s stinker at home against the Dolphins. We won with the ‘under’ in that 20-12 loss this past Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Sam Darnold certainly looks like he has a bright NFL career ahead of him, but it’s still awfully early to be anointing him as the ‘next big thing’. He’ll face another tough challenge here, preparing for an underrated Browns defense on a short week. Simply put, I don’t see the Jets really expanding the playbook for Darnold in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, Cleveland is just trying to win a football game right now. The Browns have scratched and clawed their way to two near-misses against the Steelers and Saints, with little help from their offense, and certainly not from their kicking game. Like Darnold, Tyrod Taylor will be up against it here, even though the Jets don’t offer much of a pass rush - they will present some varied looks in the defensive backfield. I actually expect Taylor to have more success running the football than he will throwing it on Thursday night, which will help keep the clock moving. While special teams and defensive scores can always ruin an ‘under’ bet in this point range, I’m not going to let that steer me away from making this play on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Tulsa has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a win over FCS squad Central Arkansas. Even in that 38-27 win over Central Arkansas, the Golden Hurricane were only at 24 points until a couple of late fourth quarter scores put the game away. In their second game against Texas they didn't find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Then last week against Arkansas State, Tulsa scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't hit paydirt again until the fourth quarter. We won with the 'under' in Temple's surprising blowout win at Maryland last Saturday. That game got to 49 total points but it's worth noting that it featured three defensive or special teams touchdowns. Prior to that, the Owls had started the season 0-2 and in their last game didn't score a touchdown until the final play of the first half against a middle of the road Buffalo defense. In the Owls season-opener against FCS squad Villanova they didn't find the end zone until past midway through the third quarter. With all of that said, their defense has held up pretty well and I would expect more of the same on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 8-11 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Comerica Park on Thursday night. Jorge Lopez will take the ball for the Royals. He is coming off a tough start against the Twins last time out, allowing three earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings of work. Prior to that he had worked 15 innings and gave up just two earned runs on six hits over his last two starts. Matthew Boyd will counter for Detroit. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 10 starts. Over his last two outings, Boyd has given up just three earned runs on five hits over 12 1/3 innings, striking out 18 and walking only three along the way. That's despite the fact that those two starts came against two quality opponents in the Cardinals and Indians. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Thursday night. Jason Vargas will get the nod for the Mets. His overall numbers are absolutely dreadful this season but he has turned things around since mid-August. Dating back to August 14th, Vargas has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those starts as well. One of those starts came against the same Nationals he'll face on Thursday. In that outing he gave up just three hits, struck out eight and didn't issue a walk over six shutout innings. Max Scherzer will counter for the Nationals. He owns a stellar 2.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. Scherzer is coming off a rocky outing against the Braves last time out as he gave up six earned runs on seven hits over four innings. The 'over' has now cashed in his last two starts, however, only twice previously this season has he seen a stretch of more than two consecutive 'over' results, the last coming during a five-start 'over' streak from July 7th to August 2nd. Scherzer owns solid career numbers against the Mets having given up one earned run or less in five of his last nine starts against them. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-9 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Wednesday night. Cole Hamels will get the nod for the Cubs. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings of work against the Reds. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 over his last eight outings. Robbie Ray will counter for Arizona. He has allowed just six earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 28 innings pitched. The 'under' has cashed in four of those five contests. Ray hasn't been at his best here at home this season but I prefer to look at his current form, which shows a 2.04 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. Chris Stratton will take the ball for the Giants. He's coming off a complete game shutout and has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last four outings. While he did throw 114 pitches in his last start, the last time he threw more than 100 pitches he came back and gave up just two earned runs on three hits over six innings in his next outing. Robbie Erlin will counter for San Diego. He is coming off a fine start, having allowed just one earned run on six hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers, needing only 72 pitches to get through that outing. The 'under' has cashed in four of his last six starts overall. Erlin owns a 2.80 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings pitched at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-18 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Wednesday afternoon. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has been lights out in afternoon action this season, posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Note also that Flaherty has recorded a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. He has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts overall. Touki Toussaint will counter for Atlanta. The Braves clearly have faith in their rookie starter giving him the nod in this crucial late season matchup. Toussaint has certainly held his own in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in two of three outings, while needing only 64 pitches to go 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his other start. In two home starts, Toussaint has allowed only four earned runs on six hits over 10 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodgers Stadium on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. He checks in having worked at least six innings in eight straight starts. Last time out he worked into the seventh inning and needed only 82 pitches to do so. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in any of his last four outings. Los Angeles will turn to its ace, Clayton Kershaw. He's coming off a bit of an un-Kershaw-like performance last time out but with that being said, he still held his own, giving up just three earned runs over six innings against the Cardinals. He needed just 92 pitches to get through those six frames. Note that Kershaw owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Derek Holland has been an 'under' machine on the road this season, posting a 3-13-1 o/u mark. There's been no real discernible difference between his performance at home and on the road as he's quite simply enjoyed a renaissance year for the Giants. Note that Holland has worked at least six innings in each of his last four outings. Joey Lucchesi will counter for the Padres. He was limited to five innings in his last two starts but needed only 74 and 86 pitches to get through those two outings. He'll be facing a Giants club that simply isn't scoring right now. Note that Lucchesi has allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Tuesday night. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He has held his own on the road this season, posting a 3.45 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He's on quite a run of consistency right now, having worked at least into the sixth inning in 15 of his last 16 starts overall. Corey Kluber will counter for Cleveland. Not surprisingly, he has been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.05 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Kluber did get lit up by the Rays last time out but prior to that had worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight outings, giving up one earned run or less in five of those starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Monday night. The Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks. He has worked just five innings in each of his last two starts but needed only 74 and 77 pitches to get through those two outings. The 'under' has gone 4-1 in his last five starts and he has given up two earned runs or less in all five of those starts. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last two starts and has certainly been comfortable pitching here at home, posting a 3.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The last time Corbin faced the Cubs he gave up just one earned run on six hits in seven innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Soldier Field on Monday night. Both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring affairs last week, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night. The Seahawks got a big day from TE Will Dissly last week against Denver. That was about the only positive to come from the Seattle offense on that day. Keep in mind, the Bears have a stout defense that limited Packers TE Jimmy Graham to just two catches for eight yards last week. Seattle is in tough here without WR Doug Baldwin. This is a bottom-tier offense with a tremendous starting QB in Russell Wilson. I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to help the Seahawks hang a crooked number on the board on Monday. On the flip side, it's just too early in the Matt Nagy era for the Bears to really unleash their offense. We saw them sputter in the second half against the Packers last Sunday and I don't expect a sudden explosion here. The Seahawks are undermanned defensively but they'll show up on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 11-6 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Monday night. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has worked at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run on five hits over seven innings. Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive starts. Over his last two outings he has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits over 15 innings of work. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-3 in his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Royals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Monday night. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least seven innings in three straight starts, giving up just four earned runs in 22 innings pitched over that stretch. The 'under' is 4-1-2 in his last seven starts overall. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Musgrove hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since way back on July 15th. The 'under' is 5-3 in his last eight starts overall. Musgrove's 10 home starts have averaged just 7.4 total runs this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 48 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Detroit and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. I leaned hard to the ‘under’ in the 49ers season-opener in Minnesota last week but ultimately decided to lay off. That one ended up finishing pretty close to the number despite a low-scoring first half, and the final total certainly could have been much higher were it not for missed opportunities by both sides. Here, I’m anticipating a bit of a shootout. The Lions couldn’t have looked any worse than they did in Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. I do expect a bounce-back of sorts here, at least from the offense. Matt Stafford is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in football for a reason. Despite his awful performance on Monday, he’ll come back airing it out against a vulnerable 49ers defense on Sunday. The same goes for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was good but not great but was also facing an elite Vikings defense, on the road no less, in last week’s season-opener. Expect to see him do a better job of finishing drives against the Lions awful defense in this matchup. Outside of Darius Slay the Detroit secondary is among the worst in the league. The ‘Niners should have little trouble taking advantage. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Over his last two outings, Gibson has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. He has been steady on the road this season, posting a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has quietly rounded into form lately, allowing only 11 earned runs over his last seven starts, spanning 46 innings pitched. Junis has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight outings, and has gone at least seven frames in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Minute Maid Park on Sunday afternoon. Zack Greinke will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has been the picture of consistency this season, including on the road, where he has posted a 3.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Note that Greinke has worked at least into the sixth inning in 11 consecutive outings. Of course, Astros ace Justin Verlander is capable of matching Greinke pitch for pitch. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. Over his last two outings he has allowed just three earned runs on nine hits over 14 innings of work, striking out 18 and walking only three along the way. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Saturday night. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 9-3-2 in his 14 road starts. Marquez brings excellent form having worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. Madison Bumgarner will counter for San Francisco. He has labored through his last two outings but has still worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts overall. Note that Bumgarner's last two starts have come on the road. Here at home he owns a sparkling 1.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU UNDER 60 | 40-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and TCU at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this big early season showdown between the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs on Saturday night. Ohio State has faced no resistance in its first two games, rolling to home wins over Oregon State and Rutgers. But now the Buckeyes head to a neutral site (AT&T Stadium in Arlington) to face a much tougher opponent in TCU. The Horned Frogs have given up just 19 points through their first two games this season, albeit against two weak opponents in Southern and SMU. Last week, TCU got caught flat-footed on SMU’s opening drive and gave up a 51-yard touchdown run. But that was basically it as it tightened things up and didn’t let the Mustangs find the end zone again. Similarly, the Horned Frogs allowed a 55-yard touchdown pass against Southern in its opener. Look for TCU to really guard against giving up those big TD plays against an elite Ohio State offense this week. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter against an awful SMU defense last Friday night. They had two defensive and special teams touchdowns in that contest, something you certainly can’t bank on seeing against a fundamentally-sound Ohio State squad. Most are calling for a shootout here, I’m just not sure we’ll see it play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Mexico and New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two rivals last season with New Mexico State prevailing by a 30-28 score. I believe it will be a struggle to get to that total in this year’s meeting, however. New Mexico opened the season with a wild 62-30 win over Incarnate Word, a cupcake matchup to open the season that the Lobos took full advantage of. They actually held their own last week as well, despite facing one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin on the road. I like the way the Lobos held up defensively in that one early on, not giving up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. The question is whether New Mexico will suffer from any lingering effects after facing a big, physical football team like Wisconsin. The good news is the Lobos will be going up against a New Mexico State offense that is still trying to find its way even as it plays its fourth game of the season on Saturday. Because of a first-year starter at quarterback and issues on the offensive line, the Aggies have really had to scale back the offense and I can’t see them really opening things up, or finding a great deal of success against a familiar opponent in New Mexico this week. The Lobos did gain a bit of traction running the football in a blowout loss to Utah State last Saturday and will aim to control the football and the clock again here. Defensively, the Aggies are dealing with some key injuries but on a positive note, didn’t give up an offensive touchdown against Utah State until the final six minutes of the first half last week. After facing Minnesota and Utah State on the road in back-to-back weeks, I’m sure the Aggies will be happy to be back home and facing a rival opponent. In what should be a tightly-contested affair I’ll back the ‘under’. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Houston v. Texas Tech OVER 69 | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Texas Tech at 4:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Houston’s rout of Arizona last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ this week as the Cougars hit the road to face Texas Tech. Houston has now scored exactly 45 points in each of its first two games but let’s face it, those numbers could have easily been higher. In their opener, the Cougars were very slow out of the gates, possibly thinking the game would be a gimme against an overmatched Rice squad. However, they were able to really turn it on in the second half, scoring four unanswered touchdowns to put the game away. We saw plenty of carry-over from that second half performance last week against Arizona as Houston scored three first quarter touchdowns and never looked back in a 45-18 victory. Here, I think the Cougars know they’re going to be in for a shootout and they certainly have the personnel in place to hang around for four quarters. Texas Tech didn’t look good in a season-opening 47-27 loss to Ole Miss with an early special teams touchdown really demoralizing the team. The Red Raiders certainly ‘got right’ last week though, scoring six first half touchdowns en route to a 77-0 rout of Lamar. Texas Tech can do it all on offense and should be able to do what Arizona couldn’t do last week and take advantage of an average Houston defense. This total has been kept in check perhaps because it’s early in the season and both teams still have a lot to prove. I can’t see this one playing out any other way than a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-18 | South Florida v. Illinois UNDER 59 | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between South Florida and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Champaign on Saturday afternoon. South Florida is coming off a wild 49-38 victory over Georgia Tech last week. That game essentially turned on a pair of kick return touchdowns for the Bulls in the opening quarter. It’s worth noting that USF scored only one offensive touchdown in the first half of that game. It’s also notable that the Bulls didn’t give up a single score from the four-minute mark of the first quarter until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. Keep in mind, USF posted a 34-14 win over Elon in its season-opener and didn’t give up a touchdown until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that one. It will obviously face a tougher test here, although I don’t believe the Illinois offense is all that intimidating. The Illini are off to a 2-0 start, winning back-to-back home games against Kent State and Western Illinois. I will point out that they didn’t score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the second half against Kent State and not until more than midway through the second quarter against Western Illinois. Should they get off to another slow start here I’m not sure they’ll be able to suddenly flip the switch against a more capable opponent in USF. Defensively the Illini have been ‘good enough’ so far this season but will certainly realize the importance of toughening up after the Bulls hung a crooked number on Georgia Tech last week. Simply put, I believe this number has been set too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Vanderbilt’s win over Nevada last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Commodores hit the road to face the Irish in South Bend this week. Vandy has put up a whopping 76 points in posting back-to-back wins to open the campaign. However, this will be its toughest test to date by far, facing a Notre Dame defense that has near NFL-level talent at a number of key positions. I will point out that despite putting up 41 points last Saturday, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown or points of any kind until nearly three minutes into the second quarter. The Commodores got rolling from there, but that was largely due to an inept Nevada offense that turned the football over four times. Similarly in Week 1, Vandy scored just one offensive touchdown before getting its second midway through the third quarter. Notre Dame is still working out the kinks in its own offense, having scored 24 points in each of its first two victories over Michigan and Ball State. The Irish defense has certainly made up for any offensive inefficiencies, allowing only 33 points through two games. Last week against Ball State, the Irish didn’t allow a touchdown until three minutes into the fourth quarter. Perhaps even more notable, Notre Dame didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter, essentially playing prevent defense at that point, against Michigan back in Week 1. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 55 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I’m not anticipating a true defensive slugfest between these two storied programs on Saturday afternoon, I do think we’ll see enough long, extended drives to keep this one ‘under’ the inflated total. Georgia Tech has split its first two games and those two contests couldn’t have played out much differently. After the Yellow Jackets cruised to a 41-0 victory over Alcorn State in their opener they got absolutely ripped in a 49-38 loss at South Florida last Saturday. It’s imperative that the Yellow Jackets get their defense right in this contest before facing Clemson next week and I believe this is a favorable matchup for them to do just that. Keep in mind, Georgia Tech gave up a pair of kick return touchdowns in the first quarter against South Florida last week, which really turned that game on its head early on. Pitt has also split its first two games, defeating Albany by a 33-7 score before getting blown out by Penn State 51-6 last week. The Panthers aren’t as bad defensively as that final scoreline would seem to indicate. Note that they did hold the Nittany Lions to only one touchdown before giving up a second in the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was a 14-6 game at halftime before things got out of hand in the second half, turned by a Penn State punt return for a touchdown late in the third quarter. After that score, the Panthers wilted. I’m not expecting this game to ever get into blowout territory for either side and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Temple v. Maryland UNDER 55 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this early kickoff matchup on Saturday afternoon. Temple is coming off a fairly high-scoring affair against Buffalo last week, falling by a 36-29 score. Keep in mind, that was a 12-7 game at halftime before a wild second half and fourth quarter in particular. The Owls didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final play of the first half, and that was against a middle of the road to below average Buffalo defense. The Temple defense didn’t hold up particularly well in that game but did limit the Bulls passing attack to just 26 completions on 45 attempts for 275 yards. Maryland is coming off back-to-back wins to open the campaign (we won with the Terps in Week 1 against Texas). Last week the Terps ran roughshod over Bowling Green, cruising to a 45-14 victory. I will point out, however that the Terps didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final three minutes of the first half. On the flip side, Maryland held BGSU to only 143 passing yards and the Falcons leading rusher had just 44 yards on the ground. The Terps didn’t give up a single score in the second half of that game. This is a relatively high total but it’s unwarranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Friday night. Walker Buehler will get the nod for the Dodgers. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts overall. Buehler has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts as well. Jack Flaherty has been an impressive rookie for the Cardinals as well. He worked just five innings in each of his last two starts but prior to that had gone at least into the sixth inning in six straight outings. Flaherty owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Minute Maid Park on Friday night. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has given up two earned runs or less in four straight starts and just two earned runs on four hits over his last two outings, spanning 12 1/3 innings of work. The 'under' is 3-1 in his last four trips to the hill. Dallas Keuchel will counter for Houston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight starts. Keuchel did get roughed up by the Red Sox last time out but prior to that had given up just five earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night. Max Scherzer will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts. Last time out he tossed a complete game against the Cubs. While he did throw 111 pitches in that one, I like the fact that he's had five full days off since. Kevin Gausman has been a nice acquisition for the Braves. He did labor through his last start against the D'Backs but prior to that had worked six innings in four of his last five outings. The only start over that stretch where he didn't last six innings was a five-inning outing in which he allowed just one hit and no earned runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 81 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Memphis at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in this Friday night matchup in Memphis. Georgia State has split its first two games, winning a close one over Kennesaw State and losing in blowout fashion against N.C. State. Note that the Panthers didn't score their first touchdown (or points) of the game until the final minute of the first half against Kennesaw State. They got off to a much faster start against N.C. State, scoring on their first drive but then didn't find the end zone again. The bottom line is I expect Georgia State to have a tough time putting points on the board against the Tigers. On the flip side, Memphis absolutely throttled Mercer by a 66-14 score in its season-opener before falling 22-21 on the road against Navy in a physical contest last week. The Tigers offense has looked outstanding at times but got a little bogged down against the Midshipmen. Here, they'll simply be looking to bounce back from that setback, not necessarily aiming for style points. Off that battle against Navy, we could see a bit of a hangover effect in a game the Tigers should win with ease. I do like the fact that Georgia State allowed N.C. State to reach the end zone only three times in the first three quarters last week, and three of the Wolfpack's four touchdowns in the game were from two yards or less out. In other words, the Panthers did do a good job of limiting the long touchdown strikes, which they'll certainly need to protect against here in Memphis (Tigers RB Henderson had two big touchdown runs in the third quarter against Navy). I simply feel both teams will need to contribute to get this one over the lofty total, and I'm not convinced we see that here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 9-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Thursday night. Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers. He has been the picture of consistency once again this season. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in nine straight starts. Kershaw has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season. Austin Gomber will counter for St. Louis. He has been lights out here at home this season, having recorded a 2.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Over his last three trips to the hill, Gomber has given up just six earned runs in 19 innings pitched. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last five outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE START TIME: NCAAF ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Wake Forest at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC showdown on Thursday night. The 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series but I believe that has been factored into this total. Boston College has gotten off to an incredible start having scored 117 points in rolling to back-to-back home wins over UMass and Holy Cross. Now the Eagles will face their first true test of the season on the road against conference opponent Wake Forest. In short, I expect the BC offense to keep rolling. Note that the Eagles have scored an incredible 82 points in the first half of their first two games this season. The difference is here on Thursday they likely won't be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and that certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Wake Forest followed up a rather ho-hum 23-17 win over Tulane in its season-opener before scoring 51 points in a rout of Towson last Saturday. The Deacons did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers in that one. They'll face more resistance here, but I still expect them to put some points on the board. Note that even in that ugly victory over Tulane, QB Sam Hartman threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The problem was a pair of key interceptions. He'll certainly need to do a better job of taking care of the football in this one, but I do believe he's capable of doing so in this step-up game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Thursday afternoon. D'Backs starter Clay Buchholz continues his incredible campaign, having posted a 1.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts, and has seen the 'under' cash in five of his last six trips to the hill. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has certainly held his own here at Coors Field, posting a 2.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his last seven starts and he has worked at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Wednesday night. Patrick Corbin will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has worked at least six innings in nine of his last 10 trips to the hill. Over his last four outings, Corbin has allowed just five earned runs on 16 hits over 24 innings pitched. The last time he faced the Rockies here in Colorado he did labour a bit, but still gave up just two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Jon Gray will counter for the Rockies. The 'under' has gone 9-4 in his 13 starts at home this season. He lasted only four innings against the Dodgers in his last start but gave up just two earned runs in an eventual 4-2 loss. Gray has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Wednesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He has quietly pitched well on the road this season, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings of work. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last six starts overall. Last time out, Lucchesi lasted only five innings but needed only 75 pitches and gave up just two earned runs on three hits on the road against the D'Backs. He allowed just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings against the Mariners back in late August. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, giving up just one earned run on 13 hits over 19 innings pitched during that stretch. LeBlanc has been solid here at home this season, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 15-7-1 in his 23 starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Wednesday afternoon. Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Braves. He has enjoyed an incredible bounce-back season and has been particularly sharp on the road, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In 33 1/3 innings of work in afternoon action, Sanchez has recorded an incredible 2.16 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He did last only five innings last time out against Arizona but needed only 81 pitches to get through that outing. Derek Holland has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season of his own for the Giants. He has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In 56 2/3 innings pitched in afternoon action he has recorded a 2.54 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in seven of his 10 starts. Also note that he has worked at least six innings in three straight outings, allowing just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-18 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for the Braves. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last seven starts. He has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six trips to the hill. Foltynewicz owns a stellar 2.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road this season. Andrew Suarez will counter for San Francisco. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. He was rocked for three home runs last time out, but that was at Coors Field in Colorado. Expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-18 | A's v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Camden Yards on Tuesday night. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts overall. Last time out he faced a tough test against the Yankees and held up extremely well, giving up just two earned runs on three hits over six innings of work. He has faced the Orioles once this season, allowing three earned runs on four hits over six innings. Alex Cobb will counter for Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run on four hits over six frames last time out. Cobb has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive outings. When he faced the A's back in May he allowed only one earned run over six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 10:20 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams in Week 2 of the preseason, as the Rams prevailed by a 19-15 score. Of course, we can throw that result out the window as Los Angeles sat its offensive stars throughout the preseason schedule. I'm expecting a wild, high-scoring contest on Monday night. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. The Khalil Mack trade obviously has a lot to do with that. But even on offense, few are expecting much from Oakland. I believe that's precisely why the 'over' is a solid play tonight. The Raiders still boast plenty of talent on offense with QB Derek Carr, RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Amari Cooper. As far as I'm concerned all three of those players have a lot to prove this season and will see this showdown with the vaunted Rams defense as a really good opportunity to show that they're not going to be doormats this season. On the flip side, I'm not concerned at all about the Rams offensive starters not seeing game action in August. They'll be ready to go and in their second year under head coach Sean McVay's guidance I expect continued improvement and refinement in this offense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-18 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for the White Sox. He got rocked last time out but had been pitching well previously, having had worked at least six innings in four straight starts. He has still allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. He has given up two earned runs or less in four of five career starts against Kansas City. Jakob Junis will counter for the Royals. He has given up two earned runs or less in six straight starts, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five outings. Junis allowed just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the White Sox. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Monday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for the Yankees. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the A's, on the road no less. He has posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road this season. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out in a tough matchup on the road against the Astros, Gibson allowed only two earned runs on four hits over seven innings. The 'under' has gone 9-6-1 in his 16 home starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 9-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Sunday afternoon after just missing the mark with the same play here last night. Touki Toussaint will take the ball for the Braves. He pitched well in a spot start in August, allowing just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the Marlins. After getting called up again last week, he worked 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox, and hung tough, giving up three earned runs on four hits - needing only 64 pitches to do so. Robbie Ray will counter for the D'Backs. He is coming off a terrific outing against the Padres, giving up only two hits over 6 1/3 scoreless frames. Over his last two starts he has given up just six hits and one earned run in 11 2/3 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in his last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 55.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between USC and Stanford at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. While most folks would love to see a shootout between the Trojans and Cardinal in primetime on Saturday I’m not expect it to play out that way. USC may have overlooked UNLV a little in its home opener last week, as it was involved in a first half slugfest, in which it only managed one touchdown and four field goals. The Trojans didn’t score in the third quarter of that game but then exploded for 24 fourth quarter points, after they had pummeled the Rebels into submission. I don’t believe they’ll be able to wear down the Cardinal in the same way on Saturday afternoon. Similarly, Stanford only managed one first half touchdown against San Diego State last week. The Cardinal then put up a pair of third quarter touchdowns, but again, they’ll be facing a tougher challenge in the Trojans this week. I did like what I saw from the Stanford defense and feel they can carry over some of that positive momentum into this showdown. USC got torched by the UNLV ground game last Saturday but there’s no question that was a focus of emphasis during practice this week. I simply feel there are a lot of similarities between these two football teams, and that we’re in for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night at The Farm. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Saturday night. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Braves. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. Over that stretch he has allowed two earned runs or less on four occasions. Clay Buchholz will counter for Arizona. He owns a 2.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Note that he has worked at least seven innings in four of his last five trips to the hill. While he lasted only five innings against the Dodgers last time out he still gave up only four hits and one earned run. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 108 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Saturday night. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts overall. Buehler has allowed just four earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 30 1/3 innings of work. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight starts. You would have to go back to July 21st to find the last time he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon. A couple of things heading into this matchup on Saturday afternoon; first the Air Force offense probably isn’t quite as good as it looked in last week’s 38-0 rout of FCS squad Stony Brook. Second, the Florida Atlantic defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked in last week’s 63-14 blowout loss against Oklahoma. I’m not counting on many explosive plays in this intriguing, under the radar affair on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons will undoubtedly be looking to chew some clock and stay within arm’s reach for four quarters while Florida Atlantic will simply be looking for a bounce-back victory – style points really don’t matter at this point, even if this is a Lane Kiffin-led football team. We’re dealing with an inflated total as I simply don’t believe we’ll see both offenses show up and fire on all cylinders in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Kansas v. Central Michigan UNDER 49.5 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Kansas and Central Michigan at 3 pm et on Saturday. I was initially leaning to a play on Central Michigan minus the points in this game but I think the line has moved into unplayable territory with the Chippewas. Kansas’ road woes are well-documented to be sure and I certainly feel that is now factored into this line. The Jayhawks are coming off an overtime loss, at home, against FCS squad Nicholls State last week. That game was a bit of a slugfest with just 40 total points in regulation time. The Kansas offense will remain fairly one-dimensional with RB Khalil Herbert carrying much of the load. QB Peyton Bender showed flashes of brilliance, but those were few and far between as he completed just 19-of-35 passes. Things won’t get easier against a Central Michigan squad that hung tough against Kentucky, on the road no less, last week. The Chips forced four turnovers in that game but their offense was stagnant (albeit against a good defense). Note that their 20-point performance was helped along by a defensive touchdown. QB Tony Poljan will be a work-in-progress and I don’t expect big things from him against a Power 5 conference opponent on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll go the contrarian route on Saturday afternoon as Arizona heads to Houston for an early start non-conference showdown. Most are expecting a high-scoring affair but I expect a different story to unfold. Keep in mind, these two teams met last September in Arizona and totaled just 35 points in a three-point Cougars victory. Arizona is in a bit of a tough spot here, coming off an unexpected home loss to BYU to open the season last week. The Wildcats scored only 23 points in that loss, with 13 of those coming in the fourth quarter. They didn't manage to put any points on the board in the first or third quarters in that contest. Their first touchdown didn't come until the final minute of the first half. While the Arizona offense will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on, I don't see a big bounce-back performance from that unit here. Houston rolled to a 45-27 victory over Rice last week but it's worth noting that the Cougars didn't put a touchdown on the board until midway through the second quarter, and that was against a weak Owls defense. I do feel that QB D'Eriq King's three-touchdown (through the air - he added one on the ground) day had more to do with taking what Rice gave him than anything else. I expect him to face a tougher challenge against a Wildcats defense that did hold its own against BYU last week. The early start doesn't hurt our cause here as this game will kick off just after 11 am local time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Nevada v. Vanderbilt UNDER 62 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Nevada and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this play sets up on Saturday. Nevada is coming off a 72-19 rout of FCS squad Portland State. The Wolf Pack absolutely exploded over the second and third quarters of that contest but what else was to be expected? After all, they were four-touchdown favorites entering that game with a total set in the 70’s. Here, Nevada will face a much stiffer challenge. And it’s certainly worth noting that the Wolf Pack were actually held out of the end zone offensively until the second quarter last week (they did return an interception for a touchdown in the first quarter). Also worth mentioning is the fact that they added a punt return touchdown and three of their offensive touchdowns went for 47 yards or more. I certainly don’t expect Vanderbilt to give the Wolf Pack so much open field on Saturday. Vandy put up a 35-7 win over Middle Tennessee State last week – an impressive win to be sure as MTSU is a quality opponent (Vandy was favored by only three points). Much like Nevada, the Commodores were also buoyed by a defensive touchdown last week. Note that their offense put up just 14 points through the first three quarters against MTSU. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Friday night. Masahiro Tanaka will get the start for the Yankees. He has been sharp lately, working at least six innings in four straight starts, and seven innings in each of his last two outings. Tanaka has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine trips to the hill. James Paxton will counter for Seattle. He left a start early due to injury on August 14th in Oakland and returned to the mound last time out against the A's. In that most recent start Paxton gave up only three earned runs on just two hits in five innings pitched. The 'under' is 7-4 in his 11 home starts this season where he has posted a 3.21 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and SMU at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last week, albeit with much different outcomes as TCU rolled past Southern and SMU had its doors blown off by North Texas. It is worth noting that TCU was a 49.5-point favorite against Southern and it did take the Horned Frogs half a quarter to find the end zone. QB Shawn Robinson has taken over the reins and certainly played well, but I don't believe we'll see this offense firing on all cylinders for at least a couple of weeks. SMU didn't get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter against a very beatable North Texas defense last week. On a positive note, the Mustangs did allow only one offensive touchdown in the entire first half against the Mean Green Eagles. They were facing a seasoned veteran QB in Mason Fine in that contest, noting that he threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The Mustangs will actually be taking a step down in class in some sense as far as quarterbacks go against Robinson. Last year's matchup between these two teams ended up reaching 92 total points. However, it's worth noting that the last three matchups on this field have totaled 56 points or less with the most recent totaling only 36 points in 2016. There's no rush to play this total as we'll likely see it climb by at least a couple of points before kickoff on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Friday night. Kevin Gausman will get the call for the Braves. He has been terrific since joining Atlanta, having allowed three earned runs or less in all six starts and two or less in his last five trips to the hill. Over his last three outings, Gausman has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last four starts. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. He only lasted five innings last time out but didn't give up a single earned run against the Dodgers, on the road no less. Corbin has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts. Here at home Corbin has recorded a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Friday night. The Dodgers will hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw. He has been outstanding on the road this season, posting a 1.98 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 6-3 in Kershaw's nine road starts. He has worked at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and has given up two earned runs or less in eight straight outings. Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine straight starts. Gray has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of those nine outings. The 'under' is 6-3 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Fenway Park on Friday night. Gerritt Cole will take the ball for the Astros. He faced the Red Sox earlier this season and gave up just three earned runs in seven innings of work. He enters this start having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five trips to the hill. Cole has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. David Price got roughed up in his most recent start against Miami but should bounce back here. Note that he had worked at least six innings in seven straight outings previously. The 'under' is 5-1-1 in Price's last seven starts overall and he has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Citi Field on Friday night. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts. He wasn't at his absolute best last time out, but was also up against a tougher offense in the Cubs than he'll face in New York on Friday night. The 'under' is 4-2-1 in Nola's last seven outings. Steven Matz will counter for New York. He has worked seven innings in his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking only two. He has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP despite his ugly 1-6 record. Take the under (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Arizona on Thursday night. Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Braves. He has turned plenty of heads this season, pitching like the ace of the Braves staff, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 12-6-3 in his 19 starts so far this season. Sanchez has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts, allowing just five earned runs in 17 2/3 innings pitched. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He has posted almost identical numbers to those of Sanchez and has been at his absolute best here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 10-4-2 in his 16 home outings this season. Greinke has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against Atlanta. Take the under (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Thursday night. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He's been red hot lately, allowing only three earned runs in 20 innings of work over his last three outings. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last seven starts. He has given up three earned runs or less in seven of eight career starts against the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg will counter for Washington. He struggled in his first start after returning from a stint on the D.L. but has bounced back since, giving up only four earned runs over 12 innings pitched over his last two starts. Strasburg has worked at least seven innings in each of his last five outings against the Cubs, giving up just seven earned runs in 36 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Wednesday night. Andrew Cashner has done a nice job of eating innings for the Orioles, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. He didn't pitch particularly well against the Royals last time out but I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he has allowed three earned runs or less in three of his last five outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his last four trips to the hill. Mike Leake will counter for the Mariners. He was also rocked in his last start but should rebound here at home, where he has worked at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in three straight starts. Prior to his last start, Leake had worked at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 8 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Wednesday night. After a tough stretch, Luis Severino has shown signs of turning the corner again for the Yankees over his last two starts. Severino has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts and has lasted at least into the sixth innings in back-to-back outings. He owns a respectable 3.77 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Mike Fiers will counter for the A's. He was roughed up by the Mariners in his last start but had been pitching well previously, working at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Fiers has given up two earned runs or less in four of five outings since joining the A's at the trade deadline. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Wednesday night. Andrew Suarez has been pitching well for the Giants, well beneath the betting radar for a while now. He has turned in shutout performances in three of his last four starts, working at least six innings in all three of those outings. Over his last two starts he has been in top form, giving up just five hits over 14 scoreless frames. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. Like Suarez, he's not a household name by any means but has been pitching well, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. The 'under' has gone 7-2 over his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Chicago on Wednesday night. Jordan Zimmermann will take the ball for the Tigers. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts overall, giving up two earned runs or less in four of his last six outings. He owns a 1.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings pitched at night this season. Rookie Michael Kopech will counter for the White Sox. He has had two of his first three big league outings shortened but has undoubtedly pitched well, giving up only one earned run while striking out nine and walking just one in 11 innings of work. In his first start against the Tigers he needed only 86 pitches to get through six innings, allowing just one earned run back on August 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday evening. Zack Wheeler will take the ball for the Mets. He has been terrific on the road this season, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Wheeler has worked at least seven innings in five of his last six starts, giving up one earned run or less in all but one of those outings. Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for the Dodgers. He has worked at least six innings in four of five career starts against the Mets, giving up two earned runs or less in all five of those starts. Ryu needed only 86 pitches to work seven innings, allowing just two earned runs on four hits against the D'Backs last time out. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday afternoon. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. Last time out, Keller gave up just two earned runs on four hits over eight innings against the Orioles. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in his last five starts overall. Corey Kluber will counter for Cleveland. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts. Kluber tossed seven innings of two-hit shutout ball in his last trip to the hill. The 'under' has cashed in his last two starts. Kluber owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.79 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 4-11 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Jason Vargas will take the ball for the Mets. He has enjoyed quite a turnaround after a tough start to the season, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, allowing just five earned runs in 22 2/3 innings pitched over that stretch. His road ERA may be north of seven but he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three road outings. Rich Hill will counter for Los Angeles. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. Even in Hill's last start while he didn't last beyond the fifth frame he still gave up only three earned runs and needed to throw only 89 pitches. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Tuesday night. Alex Cobb will take the ball for the Orioles. He has been outstanding for the Orioles over the last seven weeks or so and checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in seven consecutive starts. Cobb did get roughed up by the Jays last time out but prior to that had allowed two earned runs or less in five straight outings. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last eight starts. He's coming off a tremendous effort against the A's as he needed only 98 pitches to toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The 'under' is 7-2 over his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Over that stretch he has given up two earned runs or less on four different occasions. Last time out, Lucchesi gave up just one earned run and worked into the seventh frame against the Mariners. Robbie Ray will counter for Arizona. He has been laboring a little lately but has still worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last nine starts overall. Last time out Ray gave up only one earned run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. He has struggled at home this season but has pitched well in his last few starts here. Take the under (10*). |
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