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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-12 | Pacific +11.5 v. Cal State Fullerton | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
765 Pacific at CS Fullerton
Well aware that Pacific doesn't bring back any starters this year but they are road tested having played at Nevada, Hawaii, Stanford and San Francisco. Off an outright home loss to Fresno State there is plenty of value here on the Tigers. The last two visits to the Titan Gym they were road favorites, now a double digit dog. Fullerton is looking to end a perfect five game home stand but they haven't played anybody. Last game here they struggled to beat UC Davis by a single point as an 18 point favorite. Coming into this season the Titans were 2-3, 2-5 and 2-8 as home favorites each of the last three seasons. They don't deserve to be a chalk of this magnitude here. PLAY PACIFIC |
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01-02-12 | Delaware +3 v. North Carolina-Wilmington | 75-80 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
751 Delaware at NC Wilmington
The Blue Hens are looking to avenge an embarrassing 76-53 loss at this location a season ago. Coming off a close loss hosting Temple, we expect Delaware to step up here. A team that hasn't had a losing pointspread mark as a road underdog in any of the last four seasons. UNCW has played better at home than away this season but their only straight up home victories were against Campbell by 2 and Furman by 11 last time out. They lost to both Marshall and Davidson and they may not be the better team here. We expect an outright upset by the road dog. PLAY DELAWARE |
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12-31-11 | San Diego v. Brigham Young -22.5 | 52-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
602 San Diego at BYU
The Toreros haven't looked good away from home this year with bad losses at Tulane, Cal Irvine and Stanford. They haven't played since the 22nd in Las Vegas and they were just 8-13 ATS as road dogs the past two seasons. This is the first home game in West Coast Conference play for BYU. This is one of the toughest courts for visitors in the entire country. Off an embarrassing 98-82 loss at St Mary's to open up conference play we expect a blowout performance from a fired up host. PLAY BYU |
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12-31-11 | South Alabama v. Middle Tenn. St. -13 | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
578 South Alabama at Middle Tennessee State
The Jaguars haven't played a game since the 22nd in Las Vegas where they beat San Diego 68-62. Now they travel to a site in which they lost by margins of 23 and 27 points the past two seasons. Middle Tennessee State is having a terrific season with impressive wins over UCLA by 20, Akron by 24 and Mississippi by 12. This is a team that will be dangerous come tournament time. Off a less than impressive 5 point win over Florida International as an 18 point favorite we expect a bounce back performance from an under the radar squad today. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
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12-31-11 | Detroit -4 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-54 | Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
557 Detroit at Loyola Chicago
The Titans are off a 63-59 loss two days ago at Illinois-Chicago. They were a 7 point favorite in that game. After blowing a game they should have had we expect a more sustained effort from Ray McCallum's crew on Saturday. We always like to take a team off a bad loss when they are facing a squad they know they can beat. Detroit defeated Loyola-Chicago three times last year, covering the spread by a combined 38 points. With the next seven days off the Ramblers get a focused Titans squad this afternoon. PLAY DETROIT |
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12-29-11 | Vanderbilt +8.5 v. Marquette | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt at Marquette
The Commodores hosted Marquette last year and survived a 77-76 verdict as a 7 point favorite. Now the venue changes and the Golden Eagles are the solid home chalk. Vandy has underperformed overall this year after returning all five starters but this is a team that has proven themselves on the road in the past. The last two seasons the Commodores are 16-5 ATS on the road including taking Louisville to overtime in a 62-60 defeat earlier this month. Vandy isn't a team we feel comfortable laying points with but they are a dangerous underdog. Marquette has Big East revenge on deck as they host Villanova on New Years Day as this is their last non-conference affair of the season. The students are out for the holidays and the atmosphere won't be as intense as it will be once the new year arrives. Marquette hasn't been a team that has been capable of winning by margins when playing quality opposition, we look for that trend to continue. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-28-11 | Indiana +6 v. Michigan State | 65-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
759 Indiana at Michigan State
The Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country as Tom Crean has increased the Indiana victory total in each of his four seasons. While the win over Kentucky was the coming out party this team also owns impressive victories over Notre Dame, NC State and Butler. With the talent level much wider last season Indiana took the Spartans to the wire here 84-83 as a double digit dog. Michigan State is an overrated commodity at this time of the season. Tom Izzo has his team peaking at the end of the year and early losses to North Carolina and Duke was par for the course if you've followed his trends over the years. The Spartans have been playing a host of weak opponents over the last month with only Gonzaga resembling a quality opponent. The Spartans must step up here against a very good Indiana squad, and we feel that's just too much to ask. We look for this game to go down to the wire with the Hoosiers in position for the outright victory. PLAY INDIANA |
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12-27-11 | Pittsburgh -1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
543 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Big game for the Panthers who were upset by Wagner at home in their prior game. Over the last 10 years Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS on the road after a straight up defeat. They also have revenge against the Irish as they lost 56-51 last year as a double digit home favorite. The Panthers are a perfect 2-0 ATS in true road games this year with wins at Penn by 20 and Tennessee by 5. The Irish are off to a sluggish start this season. They have failed to show anything when stepping up in class losing to the likes of Indiana by 11, Gonzaga by 20, Georgia by 4 and Missouri by 29. They even lost to Maryland by 7 in a major rebuilding year for the Terrapins. Pittsburgh has the far better talent and they will be the better motivated team here. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-21-11 | Louisiana-Monroe +18.5 v. Indiana St | 35-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
749 UL Monroe at Indiana State
The Warhawks aren't overly talented but they have fared pretty well when stepping up in class on the road. They have already faced UNLV, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Mississippi on the road this season. They have posted a 3-1-1 spread record in those games and were only 2 points away of a clean sweep. This is a team who won only 7 games last year in Keith Richard's first year in Monroe and have posted just one victory this year. But they continue to play hard and they have enough offense to stay well within this number. Indiana State is off a huge road upset at Vanderbilt. This is a veteran team with 4 returning starters coming off a 20 win season under Greg Lansing. While they are a solid squad they have more important fish to fry on deck with Missouri Valley Conference action on the horizon. The Sycamores are not the type of team to win by margins with their biggest victory of the season coming by just 12 points. They have been a double digit favorite just four times in the last three seasons and are in unfamiliar territory laying this type of number. With conference action on deck it's time for the bench to get an extended look from Lansing tonight. PLAY UL MONROE |
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12-20-11 | Arkansas-Little Rock +14 v. Illinois State | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
559 Arkansas Little Rock at Illinois State
Trojans have fared pretty well on the road this year and are off a competitive 71-68 loss at Louisiana Tech. They beat Illinois State last year at home 63-54 and they are once again playing quality defense under Steve Shields. They do have a conference game on deck but it's not until the 29th so there is no lookahead here. The Redbirds are off a blowout 68-36 win over Norfolk State with a key Missouri Valley Conference game on deck hosting Northern Iowa. They were swept last year in that series losing two very close games. While they would love to avenge the ALR loss from a year ago they have far more important games on deck. By our power ratings the revenge factor has added two full points to this number and we just don't feel that it's the correct adjustment. Look for the Redbirds to win but we don't feel comfortable laying this inflated number with a team that was 3-10 ATS as a home favorite a season ago and lost outright to NC Wilmington here as a 12 point favorite just 17 days ago. PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK |
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12-10-11 | Ohio -5 v. Portland | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
627 Ohio U at Portland
The Bobcats are a veteran team that has played terrific ball outside of Athens this season. A 5 point loss at Louisville and outright wins over Marshall and Oakland make this team a dangerous squad. Ohio U has produced winning road spread records each of the last two seasons and they are undefeated in that regard this year. With only Marietta College on deck the Pilots get their full attention. Portland has dropped 6 of 7 games with the lone win coming against Lewis & Clark College. They are really struggling defensively allowing five opponents 80 points or more. They will struggle with the balanced attack of the Bobcats. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-10-11 | Penn State +8 v. Duquesne | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
593 Penn State at Duquesne
The Nittany Lions are coming off a pair of losses to the physical Mississippi Rebels and a veteran Lafayette squad. But the style of play and the athletes they will face today will be more to their liking. The road trip to the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh is short and the team is strongly motivated off the two straight losses. Duquesne has struggled themselves as of late against Tennessee Tech and Robert Morris, and we feel the line has been over-adjusted. Duquesne hasn't posted a winning spread mark at home in any of the last four seasons and it's not like this is the Palumbo Center, their on campus home court. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-09-11 | Iowa +9.5 v. Iowa State | 76-86 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
841 Iowa at Iowa State
Big rivalry game in which the underdog is getting a lack of respect in our eyes. Iowa is off a 20 point loss at Northern Iowa in a game that had a 2 point differential at the 10 minute mark. The Hawkeyes will likely be without Bryce Cartwright but that shouldn't make a huge difference in line discrepancy here. Keep in mind Iowa was installed as a 9 point underdog at Northern Iowa and Iowa State was a 5 point home favorite against the same team just a week ago. Neither squad covered against the Panthers. The pointspread doesn't take into account the hatred between these two in-state schools and Iowa is off that embarrassing defeat last time out. This line is three points to high in our estimation and we step in and take advantage. PLAY IOWA |
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12-07-11 | St. Bonaventure v. Illinois -10 | 43-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
782 St Bonaventure at Illinois
We were on the Bonnies on Saturday when they shocked Buffalo on the road 66-60. But now we look to go against them as they play their fifth road game in the last six outings. This is the best team St Bonaventure has played thus far and after this contest they won't have to leave the state of New York till a month from now when they travel to Duquesne. Illinois with just a single returning starter is under the radar right now despite an 8-0 record. They own victories over Gonzaga and Maryland the last two times out and they beat a quality Richmond team in Mexico. Now 12-5 ATS in the home favorite role the last two seasons we feel the line is cheap here with the Illini. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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12-06-11 | Evansville v. North Carolina -25 | 48-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
554 Evansville at North Carolina
The Purple Aces have gotten off to a slow start this year against middling competition. In their only step up game they were dismantled at home by Indiana 94-73. Evansville has permitted 70 points or more to every lined team they have faced. Big step down in class for North Carolina after facing Kentucky, Wisconsin and UNLV in the last ten days. With a veteran Long Beach State on deck this is the game where the Tar Heels make a statement. Defensively North Carolina is far superior here and they will have little problem scoring against the Purple Aces. After three subpar games the line is actually short on the Tar Heels. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-03-11 | Utah State -5 v. Pacific | 57-65 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
627 Utah State at Pacific
The Aggies are an excellent team who has started slow going 2-2 straight up against lined opposition. A team that posted win totals of 30, 27, 30 and 24 the past four seasons. They step down in class here to face a Pacific team with it's own worries. Pacific had a steep drop-off in wins last year and they don't return a single starter this season. They are 0-3 straight up against lined opposition losing by margins of 24, 5 and 42. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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12-03-11 | St Bonaventure +6.5 v. Buffalo | 66-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
597 St Bonaventure at Buffalo
The Bonnies have played just one bad game all season and it came in their last contest a 58-52 home loss to Arkansas State as a double digit favorite. They looked good against quality foes like Cleveland State and Virginia Tech so the loss to Arkansas State should be a wakeup call. Buffalo is coming off two huge blowouts of Dayton by 29 and Canisius by 35. They dominated the boards in those games which we don't think will be the case here. The Bulls have played an easy schedule thus far and they have rival Niagara on deck followed by conference play. PLAY ST BONAVENTURE |
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12-03-11 | Central Michigan v. Temple -17 | 74-86 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
580 Central Michigan at Temple
Chippewas stepping way up in class after pounding Dartmouth in the Great Alaska Shootout. First game back from that chilly tournament and they have to face a fired up Temple squad. In their only other step up game against New Mexico State the Chippewas lost by 29. Temple just lost to fellow MAC entrant Bowling Green on the road and had to go to overtime in the previous game to beat Wichita State. The game prior they lost to Purdue. Now at home for the first time all season we expect a huge effort from the Owls. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-03-11 | Cleveland State v. Detroit +3.5 | 66-61 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
560 Cleveland State at Detroit
Second of four straight road games for the Vikings off a non-covering win at Wright State in a game they trailed for the majority of play. Cleveland State has lost outright and failed to cover each of the last two years at Calihan Hall. The Titans are off an embarrassing straight up home loss to Youngstown State and have dropped five straight ATS. With St John's on deck for Monday this is a must win game for Detroit. PLAY DETROIT |
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12-01-11 | Cleveland State -6 v. Wright State | 45-43 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Cleveland State at Wright State
The line is a bit cheap for the Vikings here as they open up Horizon League play. They won at Wright State last year as an underdog and they have already proven themselves on the road with a win at Kent State. The last four seasons Cleveland State has been a solid 14-10 ATS in the road favorite role. Wright State returned just a single starter this year and they have yet to beat a lined team. After 19 or 20 win seasons the last four campaigns this is a rebuilding year for the Raiders. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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11-29-11 | Duke v. Ohio State -6 | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
563/564 Duke at Ohio state
First game back from the islands for Duke who won the Maui Invitational. This is also their first true road game this season for a team without a single senior. While Duke has been traveling from North Carolina to New York and Hawaii, the Buckeyes have had a very favorable schedule with all six games being played at Value City Arena. Ohio State has posted a winning spread record as a home favorite each of the past four seasons and stand 2-1 in that role this year. After facing sub-par competition this is a statement game for the Buckeyes. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-28-11 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. Kent State -13.5 | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
743/744 UL Lafayette at Kent State
Tough scheduling spot for the Ragin' Cajuns who are playing their fifth game in an 11 day span. After hosting their own tournament they traveled to Duquesne two days ago and lost 84-65, allowing the most points they have surrendered all season. Kent State hasn't played since November 22nd in a 4 point home loss to Cleveland State. The Golden Flashes are a solid 22-17 ATS off a SU loss when playing at home and 32-24 ATS when favored off an ATS defeat. PLAY KENT STATE |
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11-22-11 | Boise State +9.5 v. Long Beach State | 62-72 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
757/758 Boise State at Long Beach State
The Broncos have looked impressive out of the gate with a high scoring offense which has produced 80 and 113 points in two lined games. Now they take to the road to play a Long Beach State team that has gotten plenty of publicity in the early going. Long Beach beat a flawed Pittsburgh team who always seems to get off to slow starts. They then took a very young San Diego State team to overtime before losing a 77-73 decision. But those two games against high profile opposition have made the 49ers overrated in the betting markets. We swoop in and take advantage in a line we made much shorter. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-14-11 | Towson v. Michigan -26 | 47-64 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
754 Towson at Michigan
The Wolverines struggled early in their opener before pulling away late with a big advantage in length. That's likely to continue here against a weak Towson squad. Star recruit Trey Burke was late for a walkthrough and he wasn't given the start. He will be out there for the tip-off Monday night. This is a team that looks loaded and after a slow start last time out we expect the Wolverines to dominate from the opening tap. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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11-11-11 | Montana +6.5 v. Colorado St | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
623/624 Montana at Colorado State
Montana returns 4 starters and 6 players who started 15 or more games last year from a 21 win team. They graduated their best player but the team remains a major force with the returnees. Colorado State broke out of the gate strong last season but struggled down the stretch. Expectations are high but right now the Rams are in the overrated category if the opening game line is any indication. PLAY MONTANA |
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11-11-11 | Northern Illinois v. Purdue -26 | 34-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
547/548 Northern Illinois at Purdue
Northern Illinois is in rebuilding mode after losing 2/3 of the teams scoring, assists and rebounds. In an exhibition game they lost outright at home to division III Carthage. This team still has a long way to go and we have the ability to go against them here with a far more talented Boilermaker squad. PLAY PURDUE |
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11-11-11 | Montana State +13.5 v. Arizona St | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
627/628 Montana State at Arizona State
The Bobcats return just a single starter this year and could be in for a struggle to start the year. Arizona State now has the athletes to run a bit more this year and the stellar defense should return. The Sun Devils could very well be a bargain their first part of the schedule. We made this line significantly higher. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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04-02-11 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +2.5 | Top | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Kentucky & Connecticut at Houston
UConn beat the Wildcats earlier this year in non-conference play 84-67 as the Huskies shot lights out from the field. While we don't expect that type of repeat shooting performance we side with Connecticut again in the rematch. If you're a believer in destiny you have to think this is UConn's tournament to lose. They played in arguably the toughest conference in the country and have been as impressive as anyone in this tournament. A lesser team would have folded after their exhausting run through the Big East Tournament. But every time they are counted out they rise to the occasion once more. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS on the season in non-conference affairs. Kentucky is the better shooting team of these two squads but they didn't match up well in the first meeting and we see a repeat of that problem. We expected this game to come out as an even matchup and we're someone surprised by the Kentucky favoritism. Maybe it's because the Wildcats are a public team that the linesmakers expect to take money, or maybe once again the public isn't giving the Huskies enough credit. Either way we will gladly take the inflated price in a game we expect to be decided late. Connecticut played in the better conference and they have been the more impressive team in the Big Dance. They don't deserve to be the underdog here. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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04-02-11 | Virginia Commonwealth +3 v. Butler | 62-70 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
VCU & Butler at Houston
Regardless of how we break this game down we can't see how either of these two squads can be made the favorite here. Our numbers show at most a one point edge either way which puts us on the underdog Rams. VCU has made a tremendous run through this tournament and the Colonial Conference as a whole is tougher than the Horizon League. Teams such as Old Dominion and George Mason are head and shoulders above anything the Horizon has to offer except for todays opponent. Despite the success Butler has shown in the Big Dance this is still a team that is a notch down from the Final Four team of a year ago. In our opinion they didn't dominate league action and don't have the needed senior leadership. As for experience in this environment that all goes out the window after tip off. In what is expected to be a nip and tuck game throughout we will take the points with the Cinderella Rams. PLAY VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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03-27-11 | Kentucky v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Kentucky & North Carolina at Newark
We really expected North Carolina to come favored here. After all they played the tougher schedule coming from the stronger league, and the Tar Heels have won 17 of 19 games with the two losses coming to #1 seeded Duke. They defend the three well which is the Wildcat's strength and they own a large advantage on the glass. North Carolina is also off an easy game against Marquette while Kentucky was in a 40 minute battle with #1 seeded Ohio State. The Wildcats are a solid team but they are a young squad coming off their biggest win of their careers. Kentucky returned just one starter this year after missing the Big Dance a year ago. Kentucky lost at North Carolina 75-73 in early December when the Tar Heels were still struggling with rotations. Since that game North Carolina lost to Duke twice, Texas and Georgia Tech. They beat everyone else on the schedule and we believe they are the better team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-25-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Florida State -4 | 72-71 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
883/884 VCU & Florida State at San Antonio
VCU has played very well as of late winning 5 of their last 6 games, but they face a very good defensive club in Florida State. The Rams are at a severe disadvantage in the front court and on the glass. They have also faced a weaker schedule although they have stepped up strong in the tournament. Florida State has gone under 30 of their last 43 tournament games as they set the pace and force the tempo. That should really benefit them here against a non-ACC opponent. The Seminoles have won five straight games ATS including the likes of North Carolina and Notre Dame. We expect Florida State to control the glass and in turn play their preferred style. Which get's us the pointspread cover. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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03-25-11 | Richmond +11 v. Kansas | Top | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
881/882 Richmond and Kansas at San Antonio
As much as we like this Kansas team they are simply laying too many points to a quality underdog here. Keep in mind that not only has Richmond looked impressive in this tournament but they beat VCU by 12 earlier this year and won at Purdue 65-54. Considering that VCU is still alive as of this writing and Purdue was a #3 seed, those are solid accomplishments. Richmond is a good 3 point shooting team which is what you want out of an underdog, and they are 39-21 ATS the past three seasons against winning teams. So they get up for big games and this is likely the biggest game any of these kids will ever play. Kansas has the rebounding edge but they are not at the top of their game right now. Kansas has dropped 5 of their last 8 games ATS and if it wasn't for a big run in the second half against Illinois they wouldn't have covered that game. The Jayhawks are 5-8-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA Tournament. They are bullies against lesser competition but often falter when stepping up in class. Kansas has a history of entering this tournament with NCAA Title hopes only to fall far earlier than expected. While we feel they will get the outright win here we expect the outcome to be much closer than the betting public has set the line. PLAY RICHMOND |
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03-25-11 | Marquette v. North Carolina -4 | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
877/878 Marquette & North Carolina at Newark
Marquette has done a nice job advancing against Xavier and Syracuse but we feel their tournament comes to an end on Friday. They are not an overly talented offensive squad and now they go up against a team that contests shots inside and is a terrific rebounding team. It's likely one shot and done for the underdog who will look to slow down the more talented Tar Heels. In their last 18 games North Carolina is 16-2 with both losses coming to #1 seed and conference rival Duke. They won at Florida State who is still alive at this writing. During this streak North Carolina owns quality wins over the likes of Clemson 3 times, Florida State twice, to go along with a victory over Washington last time out. Going in to the Big Dance Marquette was 6-12 straight up against NCAA Tournament teams while the Tar Heels were 7-5. North Carolina has gotten much better as the season has unfolded as their young players have learned to grow up fast in ACC play. This is a team peaking at the right time while Marquette is playing over their heads right now. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-24-11 | Arizona +8.5 v. Duke | Top | 93-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
811/812 Arizona & Duke at Anaheim
This is the highest spread game on Thursday and we don't agree with the betting public. Last week Duke used a very favorable location to knock off Hampton and Michigan. Now they must travel to the opposite coast to face a PAC 10 team that doesn't get nearly the national publicity as the ACC member. Duke has four losses on the season, all coming on the road. This is a team that rarely travels west of the Mississippi and is in a region that is very anti-Blue Devils. So to not only expect Duke to win but to do so by a sizable margin would be a mistake. Especially when you consider that the Blue Devils are about as public a team as there is in college basketball. Arizona is a solid team that can more than hold their own here in Anaheim. They faced the tougher road to get here with wins over Memphis and Texas. The victory over the Longhorns was especially impressive considering that they blew a sizable lead and still were able to come back for the victory. While Duke is 32-4 straight up on the season they are just 13-14 ATS when playing a winning team. Arizona on the other hand is a solid 14-10 ATS in that role. The Wildcats are a good shooting 3 point team which makes them a dangerous dog here. They also hold their own on the glass which also is a good statistic for an underdog. Unlike the last round where the Blue Devils had a location edge look for Arizona to get a fair shake from the officials. PLAY ARIZONA |
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03-21-11 | Rhode Island +5 v. Central Florida | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
623/624 Rhode Island at Central Florida
We've been down on Conference USA most of the season and it's paid off pretty well. The lone entrant into the Big Dance, Memphis, was eliminated in the first round. Atlantic 10 entrants Temple and Richmond actually performed very well in winning 3 of 4 games with the lone loss coming in double overtime to a #2 seed. Central Florida started the year on fire but they have been treading water since. The Knights are only 4-9 ATS at home with a 14-4 straight up record in this building. Rhode Island is a solid 7-7 straight up on the road with a 7-6 spread mark. They are playing quality ball down the stretch winning and covering 4 of 7. The Rams played the tougher schedule and are a bit better team in our power ratings. With home court value lessoned at this time of year this line opened at least two points higher than we expected. PLAY RHODE ISLAND |
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03-20-11 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -5 | 71-57 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
727/728 Florida State & Notre Dame at Chicago
It's very clear that the ACC was down this year with only North Carolina and Duke distinguishing themselves above the rest. In fact, Florida State played just eight teams that were invited to the Big Dance posting a 2-6 straight up mark. Both of the victories came at home against Clemson and Duke. The Seminoles lost to five teams who didn't get dance invites and simply don't deserve to be in this price range. We have to admit that Notre Dame cost us the chance to get off to a perfect 8-0 start to March Madness. We used them in the first round against Akron and they came up 1/2 point short. But we're not about to abandon the Irish just because of that setback. Here is where they pay us back for that lone defeat. Notre Dame was 14-6 straight up against Big Dance squads and they have been excellent in the role of favorite with a 13-7 mark this season. The site also favors the Irish who finally put it together on Friday after a poor first half. Like Florida yesterday we expect Notre Dame to pull away late and cover what we feel is a short number. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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03-20-11 | Illinois v. Kansas -8 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 101 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
733/734 Illinois & Kansas at Tulsa
Somewhat surprised by this line as we had projected a spread3* of 10-12 with UNLV as the opposition, and the Rebels were favored by 2 over Illinois. The Big 10 has been an underrated conference in this tourney, but the lower tier teams have already been knocked out with Penn State and Michigan State tasting defeat. Illinois is closer to those two squads than the Purdues and Ohio States of the conference. Illinois was most impressive early on with wins over North Carolina, Gonzaga and Wisconsin but they faded late in the season. The Illini faced two other Big 12 schools this year losing at Texas by 6 and Missouri by 11. Illinois played their best game in a long while against UNLV but it must be noted that they dropped four straight games against Big Dance opponents before beating the Rebels. We feel that Kansas is the best team in the country with their only losses coming against Texas and Kansas State. They were 10-2 straight up against Big Dance participants including outright road wins at Arizona and Michigan, two teams still alive at this writing. Our power ratings clearly side with Kansas here and the location should also benefit the Jayhawks. Off what they consider a poor performance we'll back the better team at a cheap number. PLAY KANSAS |
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03-19-11 | Morehead St. v. Richmond -3.5 | 48-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
521/522 Morehead State & Richmond at Denver
This is going to be a tough spot for the Eagles of Morehead State. They beat Tennessee Tech to win the automatic bid to the Big Dance only to be pared up against an in-state big brother in Louisville. For those not familiar with the state of Kentucky basketball, Louisville and Kentucky rule supreme with every other program being an afterthought. Not only did Morehead shock big brother Louisville they did so in buzzer beater fashion. This is a team that played a very weak schedule with just two teams being invited to the Big Dance, Florida and Ohio State. Neither of those two squads took the Eagles seriously in 6 and 19 point victories. Louisville beat Morehead State by 20 in the NCAA Tournament in 2009 and they very likely overlooked a determined in-state rival on Thursday. That won't be the case from Richmond today. The Spiders entered the tourney having played seven teams chosen for the Big Dance. They were 3-4 straight up in those games including road wins at Purdue and Temple. Richmond played a much tougher schedule in the Atlantic 10 Conference and their non-conference slate featured teams from the ACC, SEC, Big 10, Pac 10 and Big East Conferences. The Spiders were a solid 14-10 ATS when favored this year and are an excellent 3 point shooting team that should find plenty of opportunities. PLAY RICHMOND |
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03-19-11 | UCLA v. Florida -5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
515/516 UCLA & Florida at Tampa Bay
This is a very tough draw for the Bruins who had to fly across the entire nation in order to compete on the opposite coast. That travel scenario seemed to catch up to UCLA in the second half on Thursday as they blew a huge lead over Michigan State. The Spartans didn't have the talent to come all the way back but they did expose this Bruins team for what they are, a good squad but not of the caliber of Florida. UCLA was just 4-7 straight up this year against teams invited to the Big Dance. They are 0-5 straight up on the road against Big Dance entrants. While this isn't a true home game for the Gators, the proximity of the site clearly favors Florida. The crowd will be even more lopsided Saturday as the Michigan State and Santa Barbara faithful sell their remaining tickets to the well traveling Gator partisan crowd. As opposed to UCLA the Gators are 11-3 straight up against Big Dance entrants. The only losses coming to Kentucky twice and Ohio State. UCLA didn't have the chance to rest their starters as much as they would have liked because Michigan State refused to roll over and die. That along with the poor traveling situation makes them very vulnerable once again today. Look for Florida to pull away in the second half for a comfortable victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-18-11 | Akron v. Notre Dame -14 | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
841/842 Akron & Notre Dame at Chicago
Being a 1985 Akron University graduate I follow this team closer than just about anyone. With that said this team is extremely fortunate to be in the tourney. While the Zips have won 11 of their last 13 games they received every advantage possible from the officials in the MAC Championship Game against Kent State. That overtime victory over their biggest rival has to leave this team a bit drained emotionally. Having to face a second seeding Irish team in their own backyard will be just too much to handle. Here's a quick question for you. How many Big Dance qualifying teams did the Zips beat this year? ZERO. The only team they faced that made it to the Big Dance was Temple and the Owls pounded Akron 82-47. The Zips simply don't have the inside game offensively to give the Irish and problems. They are a perimeter shooting team that won't have any advantages in this matchup. As opposed to the Zips the Fighting Irish played 20 games against teams who are in the Big Dance. Outside of Big East play they took on the likes of Georgia and Kentucky from the SEC, Gonzaga and Wisconsin. This is a team that has a chip on their shoulder about not receiving a top seed and they have been an excellent bully posting a 13-6 spread record this season when favored. The MAC has been fodder for the power conferences yearly here in the Big Dance and the Zips will not be an exception to the rule. While we are proud of how this team played down the stretch they are in way over their heads against this type of opponent. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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03-18-11 | Tennessee v. Michigan +2 | Top | 45-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
831/832 Tennessee & Michigan at Charlotte
Michigan is a 2 point underdog pretty much across the board as we write this and we can't for the life of us figure out why they are the underdog. Michigan has cashed 12 of their last 13 games with the only straight up losses coming at Ohio State by 9, at Illinois by 2, hosting Wisconsin by 1 and against Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament by 7. This is a team that played with Syracuse in a 53-50 loss, and Gave Kansas all they could handle in a 67-60 defeat. All but one of these losses have come to teams seeded in the Top 4 in the Big Dance. Sure Michigan isn't at that level but they are surely as good if not better than Tennessee. The Volunteers lost to the likes of USC, the College of Charleston and Oakland in non-conference action. They also struggled in beating Belmont twice by margins of 9 and 1 point. When stepping up in class out of SEC play they did beat Pittsburgh by 7 but lost to Connecticut by 11. In fact when they faced Top 4 seeded teams in this tournament the Volunteers could only beat Pittsburgh while losing to Florida by 6, by 1 and by 11. They also lost to Kentucky by 12 and 6 in addition to the Connecticut defeat. The Big 10 gets a bad rap in the national media but they are a far better conference this year that the SEC. That Big 10 prejudice is at work here. Besides Michigan has proven themselves to be a dangerous underdog going 12-4 ATS this year and 30-14 ATS in that role the past three seasons. Tennessee on the other hand is 7-15 ATS when favored this year and 29-41 ATS in that role the past three seasons. Michigan is playing the much better ball right now and they come out of Charlotte with a victory on Friday. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-17-11 | Cal Santa Barbara v. Florida -13 | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
711/712 Cal Santa Barbara & Florida at Tampa Bay
While as a whole we feel the SEC to be an overrated conference we can't help but think everything points to a Florida blowout here. First of all they are off a double digit loss in the conference championship game. That 70-54 loss to Kentucky was the second loss in three games to the Wildcats who obviously match up very well with the Gators. The lone Florida victory against Kentucky was a two point home win. Secondly, and what we feel is a big edge is that this game is being played in Florida's home state. Teams playing close to home have a large advantage in these games, especially when taking on a smaller school that doesn't travel especially well. Thirdly, a major criticism of the committee was seeding Florida at such a high spot. That's an extra motivation factor for a Gator bunch who has a strong pedigree in this tournament. The Gauchos didn't get any favors by forcing them to travel the entire distance of the United States to play a team from a power conference in their home state. Santa Barbara played a weak non-conference schedule that featured just two teams, UNLV and San Diego State that are strong enough to be in the Big Dance. San Diego State pounded the Gauchos 90-64 while Santa Barbara beat UNLV 68-62. The win over the Rebels was the second time they had upset UNLV, and coach Kruger of UNLV pointed out how his teams just didn't match up well with the Gauchos. This is a squad that had lost 3 of 4 games heading into the Big West Tournament before running the table. Their tournament run ends in the opening round for the second straight year. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-17-11 | UNC Asheville v. Pittsburgh -18 | Top | 51-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
719/720 NC Asheville & Pittsburgh at Washington D.C.
Big South entrant UNC Asheville had to go to overtime to knock off Sun Belt entrant Arkansas Little Rock just two days ago. Now they must face the number one seed in the Southeast with very little preparation time. Small market teams have never fared well in this tournament, especially when they couldn't dominate their own conference. This isn't a situation like Butler last year who ran through the Horizon Conference from opening to closing bell. This is a Bulldogs team that has posted 20 wins against a schedule featuring Belmont Abbey, Virginia Intermont, Montreat and King College. They entered the conference tournament having dropped 3 of 7 games. When stepping up in class against stronger disinterested foes the Bulldogs lost by 11 at North Carolina, by 15 at Georgetown, and by 47 at Ohio State. The Bulldogs returned four starters so they had most of their rotation set while the Hoyas and Tar Heels were still setting up their own rotations. Dominant teams who fall early in their conference tournaments are clubs we want to back against an undermanned foe. Keep in mind that Pitt lost to Connecticut by just two points in the Big East Tournament. One of only five losses on the season. The five teams the Panthers lost to were Tennessee, Notre Dame, St Johns, Louisville and Connecticut ,all teams receiving bids to the Big Dance. Three of those losses were by 3 points or less. With a chip on their shoulder after losing on the 10th the Panthers have been wanting to get the monkey off their back for a full week now. The last two years Pitt is 13-6-1 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-2-1 ATS off a straight up defeat. Top ranked teams traditionally win in the first round by much more than what we have to lay here. Look for Pittsburgh to come out with some fire on Thursday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-15-11 | Kent State +11 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
559/560 Kent State at St Mary's
This line really surprised us as it's not clear that the conferences have this big of a discrepancy. It was clear that both of these teams were in the top two in their respective leagues with an equal chance of going to the Big Dance. Both lost to the eventual conference champion, with Kent State doing so in overtime. The Golden Flashes are clearly playing the better ball having won 11 of their last 15 games. They have won 4 of the last 5 games away from home. Kent was 8-5 ATS on the road this season. St Mary's lost 4 of their last 7 games including home losses to Gonzaga and Utah State, the only good teams they faced as of late. St Mary's posted a mediocre 6-7 spread record at home. The Gaels really thought they had done enough to secure an at large bid from the NCAA. When that didn't happen they were devastated. We can't see how they can rebound and beat a team like Kent State by this type of number, especially the way they have played as of late. PLAY KENT STATE |
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03-15-11 | Fairfield +6.5 v. Colorado St | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
555/556 Fairfield at Colorado State
The Stags have been a quality team from a decent conference for the past few seasons. They enter play today at 24-7 on the season including an outright road victory at NCAA representative St Peters. They are 9-4 straight up on the road and have the pedigree to compete here against a middle of the road Mountain West squad. Colorado State finished the season at 19-12 but they played by far their best ball in the middle of the campaign. As of late they have dropped 5 of their last 6 games with the lone win coming on this court against the Utah Utes. While they did finish the season with the top echelon of the conference they also lost at Air Force by 17 points. Colorado State is a solid team but they had their sights set much higher just a few weeks ago before dropping a 68-61 decision at home to UNLV. A victory there would have put the Rams in the thick of talk for an NCAA berth. Colorado State still hasn't bounced back from that defeat. The Rams were just 9-4 straight up at home this year, they shouldn't be a prohibitive favorite against a solid team. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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03-12-11 | Boise State v. Utah State -6 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
549/550 Boise State & Utah State at Las Vegas
The Aggies have completely dominated the Broncos as of late winning the last five meetings by margins of 28, 9, 24, 5 and 22 points. Utah State has been able to score at will as witnessed by shooting percentages of 64.3, 51.0, 52.5, 49.0 and 52.6%. What's been equally impressive is how well the Aggies dominated the glass, holding edges of 4, 5, 20, 5 and 3 rebounds per contest. When you can't be stopped offensively and you dominate the boards it's very tough to not get the pointspread cover. Despite how well thought of Utah State is in the national media they are not guaranteed an at large bid to the Big Dance. In order to secure the automatic bid they will need to win this game outright. Off a tough four point victory yesterday we can see the Aggies being very focused here. Boise State is a good team playing very well right now but there is a clear class difference here. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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03-11-11 | Illinois v. Michigan +3 | Top | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
821/822 Illinois & Michigan at Indianapolis
Despite identical 19-12 records these two teams are going in opposite directions, especially when you consider how they have fared as of late away from home. Illinois has dropped 5 of their last 6 on the road with the lone victory coming against a fast fading Minnesota club. The Illini even lost at Indiana in a game they were favored by 4 points. Michigan is playing much better ball on the road which is a key in these neutral site games. The Wolverines have won 4 of 6 straight up on the highway with the two outright losses resulting in spread covers. One of those defeats came at Illinois in a 54-52 nail bitter. In that game Illinois outshot the Wolverines both from the field and the three point line and also won the rebounding battle 38-32, yet Michigan easily covered the spread. That shows us that Michigan did all the little things to keep them in the game. We expect Michigan to shoot much better this time around and win this one outright. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-08-11 | Butler v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3 | Top | 59-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
591/591 Butler at Wisconsin Milwaukee
While Butler has the marquee name it's been UWM who has owned this rivalry as of late. UWM has won both meetings this year in impressive fashion by margins of 6 on the road and 24 points at home. They have now covered 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and they enter play tonight just as hot at the Bulldogs. Butler has won 8 straight games but they have posted a cover only 4 of those times. UWM on the other hand has won 10 of their last 11 with 9 pointspread covers. In the two wins over Butler this year they held the Bulldogs to under 40% shooting both games while surpassing 54% themselves each time. While the Bulldogs have the better record on the season and the far more name recognition, Wisconsin Milwaukee is every bit as good as Butler but the line just doesn't show it. PLAY WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE |
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03-06-11 | Wake Forest +17 v. Boston College | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
819/820 Wake Forest at Boston College
With the conference tournament starting on Tuesday the Eagles of Boston College are very happy to get out of this game injury free. A blowout in reality means nothing for this team who is laying a huge number they are not accustomed to. The Eagles are also off back to back outright road upsets over Virginia and Virginia Tech. They are sure to be overconfident here looking past the sad sack Demon Deacons and on to the conference tourney. Wake Forest has dropped nine straight games and could easily mail this game in. But we obviously don't think that will be the case. This is a team that has been out of the nation's spotlight the entire season yet they continue to play hard as evidenced by a 3-3-1 spread mark the past seven games. It's obvious that Boston College has the far superior talent but this is a terrible situational spot for the Eagles on Senior Day. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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03-05-11 | Air Force +12.5 v. New Mexico | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
581/582 Air Force at New Mexico
The Falcons have been very competitive as of late on the road, winning 2 of their last 5 games straight up with the losses by margins of 2, 7 and 3 points. They don't have any preconceived ideas about winning the conference tournament, so they will give a full effort tonight. That won't be the case for the Lobos who have to be thinking that they have a real shot in pulling off the tournament upset. After all in the last three weeks they lost by just 6 at San Diego State and upset BYU by 18 on the road the last time out. They have beaten Air Force all four meetings the last two years, so we can't see them being excited to run up the score here. And it's not like "The Pit" has been a dominant home court this year. New Mexico has lost outright the last two times they have played here. It's also senior night which is a great time to go against all the home team pageantry. New Mexico is off one of their biggest victories in years and the only way they make the Big Dance is by winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament. They will not be focused to win this one by a margin. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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03-02-11 | Utah +9.5 v. Colorado St | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
787/788 Utah at Colorado State
The Utes have been down this year but they have been playing much better ball as of late. They have won three straight games heading into tonight's match-up including an outright win at New Mexico as a 15 point underdog. Prior to the current streak they gave BYU a good game on the road easily covering the 20 point spread. This is a team playing their best ball of the season and peaking at the right time with the conference tourney right around the corner. Just two weeks ago Colorado State was right in the thick of things for the Big Dance. But they have fallen on hard times losing to UNLV, BYU and Air Force. The loss to the Falcons by 17 points tells us all we need to know about the heart of this team. Now they face Utah before ending the season at San Diego State. The only way the Rams get the invite is by winning the conference tournament. Therefore they have nothing to play for the next two games and they are not a team we want any part of laying points. Utah is playing with confidence now while Colorado State is playing out the string. The Utes are 18-9 straight up in this series and they are playing with home loss revenge tonight. PLAY UTAH |
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03-02-11 | Colorado v. Iowa State -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
759/760 Colorado at Iowa State
Colorado just pulled off a huge home upset win over Texas and now they face a team they beat by 26 points earlier in the season. The Buffaloes have Nebraska revenge on deck so they likely will be looking past the Cyclones here. Colorado hasn't fared well on the road posting a 3-7 spread record and they are off a rare road win at Texas Tech. Iowa State is 12-1 straight up when hosting the Buffaloes. They are off a confidence building victory over Nebraska. That broke a 10 game losing streak for Iowa State. History and the situation call for a Cyclone victory and we firmly believe the Buffaloes are still basking in the success of the win over Texas. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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03-01-11 | Boston College +9 v. Virginia Tech | 76-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
533/534 Boston College at Virginia Tech
BC has been an excellent road team this season cashing 7 of 9 lined games. They have also cashed the last three meetings with the Hokies by 28 combined points. They have four straight road covers as of late including an outright victory last time out at Virginia by 19 points. The last two games on enemy courts the Eagles have been dominant defensively allowing just 44 points at Virginia and 48 points at North Carolina. Virginia Tech just played quite possibly the biggest game in their regular season history as they knocked off top ranked Duke 64-60 at home. The fans stormed the court and the players and coaches were in the national spotlight. Now just three days later they are not only expected to win but do so by double digits. The Hokies have already lost five players for the season and it's senior day. We always like to go against teams with a pre-game celebration and it's especially effective off a big victory. Look for the host to get off to a slow start as the always ready Eagles take this one to the wire. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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02-26-11 | Wyoming +17 v. UNLV | Top | 77-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
673/674 Wyoming at UNLV
The Cowboys have had a long season including having their quality coach fired because of their poor play. They end the year against the top three teams in the conference UNLV, BYU and San Diego State. They lost at home to the Rebels by 9 points although they did stay under the number. But this is a team that hasn't thrown in the towel having won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss being a respectable showing. We are willing to take the generous points here against what figures to be a disinterested favorite. UNLV just beat Colorado State and New Mexico, the later in overtime. Those two wins virtually assured the Rebels of an at large bid to the big dance. This is a team that has not been a good home favorite when taking on weak opposition. This season they are 3-10 ATS at home and over the last 14 years UNLV is just 17-29 ATS laying large numbers at the Thomas & Mack. It's Senior Night and the Rebels have four players leaving the program including two who rarely see action. That means the game will feature rotations that rarely see the light of day even in practice. Considering that UNLV had just two days off since the New Mexico overtime victory we highly doubt these rotations received any work this week in practice. The goal for UNLV has been to make the Big Dance and victories over Wyoming and Utah to end the season won't change that. With the Rebels hosting the conference tournament once again the best chance to add to their resume would be to beat San Diego State or BYU, two teams they are 0-4 against this season. Look for the coaching staff to clear the bench as the Cowboys stay well within this sizable number. PLAY WYOMING |
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02-26-11 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +1.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
611/612 Northern Illinois at Toledo
One of the first rules of sports handicapping is you don't lay points on the road with a bad team. But that's what we have here with a Northern Illinois squad that is 1-11 straight up on the road against lined opponents and 7-19 overall on the year. The Huskies have dropped eight straight games overall and only one of those games was closer than six points. The team has three players who are questionable tonight and the Huskies have lost 10 of their last 13 meetings straight up at Toledo. The Rockets are no prize by any means with a 4-24 record on the season. But all four victories did come at home and this is the last real chance for a win this season. In the previous meeting in Northern Illinois the Rockets were able to stay under the number despite shooting just 37.3% from the field and 15% from behind the arc. They hit just 58.3% from the foul line and were outrebounded by eight. That tells us that they can compete with the Huskies even on their worst day. Northern Illinois hasn't won a road game in seven weeks. No reason to expect one here. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-23-11 | Air Force +2 v. Wyoming | Top | 61-63 | Push | 0 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
801/802 Air Force at Wyoming
Major step down in class for the Falcons here after facing BYU, UNLV and San Diego State the last three times out. Until running into that terrible threesome they had covered 5 of their previous 6 games. Air Force has had little problem with the Cowboys the last two meetings winning by 21 and 19 points. Off three straight defeats the Flyboys will be ready to take out some frustrations tonight. Wyoming has dropped 9 of their last 10 games in straight up fashion and they come into tonight's game as a banged up bunch. As many as four players will not be fully healthy tonight after losing three players earlier for the season. This isn't a team with enough depth to play off those absences and it's likely to take a toll the remainder of the season. Air Force has won 4 of 5 road games in straight up fashion when not playing the top four teams in the league. Wyoming is far from that as we're somewhat surprised by them being the favorite here. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-23-11 | Rhode Island +12.5 v. Duquesne | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
751/752 Rhode Island at Duquesne
Somewhat surprised by the line here considering recent play and series history. The Rams are getting more points here than they received at Temple, a team we feel is superior to Duquesne. Rhode Island has won 3 of their last 5 road games in straight up fashion with the largest defeat coming to the Owls by 13. Duquesne has dropped 3 of their last 4 games despite being favored in every one of those contests. While they have an excellent spread record on the season the lines are becoming overinflated. The three losses came by a grand total of 27 1/2 points. The Rams are 12-4 straight up in this series including 5-1 outright in this building. We fully respect what the Dukes have done this season but the Rams have the ability to take this one to the wire, which is a must play situation as a double digit dog. PLAY RHODE ISLAND |
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02-19-11 | UNLV v. Colorado St | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
571/572 UNLV at Colorado State
The Rebels are down this year and it's taking the betting public a long time to realize what we knew a month ago. Going against the Rebels has been our meal ticket as of late and we will continue to go against this overrated squad. Simply put UNLV doesn't have enough offensive talent to stretch the court with outside shooting. They also don't have their traditional athletic advantage that they have possessed for the last 20 years. The other teams in the conference are recruiting just as well if not better than UNLV. The Rebels are winless in conference against the top teams in the Mountain West. They are 0-2 against San Diego State, 0-2 against BYU and they were blown out of their own gym against these Rams. UNLV lost those five games by a total of 53 points with none of the losses by less than six points. Colorado State has won 7 of their last 9 games with the losses coming to San Diego State and BYU by a total of 11 points. This team is the far superior club right now as they are playing with extreme confidence while the Rebels question every move they make. In order to win on the road you must be physically stronger than the opposition and have a superior shooting night. We simply can't see the Rebels having either of those advantages here. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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02-19-11 | Vanderbilt v. Auburn +11 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
541/542 Vanderbilt at Auburn
The Commodores are playing very well right now having won four straight games but they are a much better play at home than on the road. In conference play Vandy has lost outright at South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. The road wins have come by 7 at Mississippi State and 8 at Georgia. Off four big wins with a key in-state revenger on deck against Tennessee we can see the Volunteers taking this Auburn team for granted. After all they beat the Tigers by 8 and 7 points the last two years. The Tigers are off an embarrassing 31 point loss at Mississippi. They have been competitive at home with conference losses by 13, 10, 5 and 7 points. The last time they played on this court they upset Mississippi State. There is also extra motivation because of the poisoning of the on campus trees. Because of that we can expect a little extra motivation and pride from the home crowd and the players. PLAY AUBURN |
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02-19-11 | San Diego St v. Air Force +11.5 | 70-58 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
533/534 San Diego State at Air Force
There is no doubt that the Aztecs have the far superior team in this match-up, but this is simply a terrible spot for the double digit road favorite. San Diego State is off big games with UNLV and New Mexico with a revenge game with BYU on deck. That earlier loss to the Cougars was the only defeat of the season for the Aztecs. San Diego State has dominated Air Force as of late winning by margins of 13, 19, 22 and 31 points. Off wins over two big rivals and with the huge showdown on deck what motivation do the Aztecs have to run up the score here? After all it's not like they have been dominant on the road in conference play. The wins on enemy courts have come by 6, 2, 9 and 12 with the 13 point loss at BYU. Air Force is 8-3 ATS in conference and 4-1 ATS seeking revenge. They have the ability to slow the game down which they did very effectively last time out against UNLV. We expect a similar game plan here as they are no match physically with the Aztecs. Against the Rebels the cover was never in doubt and we expect a very similar outcome here. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-16-11 | Colorado St -3.5 v. Texas Christian | Top | 69-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
769/770 Colorado State at TCU
The Rams have been a very pleasant surprise this season with an actual shot at playing in the Big Dance. They enter this game at 17-7 on the year and with the steady decline of UNLV they have become one of the Top 4 teams in the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State has been especially impressive on the road where they are 6-2 straight up with wins at Wyoming, Utah and UNLV the last three games away from home. This is a team on a mission right now and they are well rested having played just once in the last ten days. TCU started the season with high expectations but they have fallen completely apart. Injuries to key players and others simply leaving the team has left this squad as a shell of their former selves. TCU has dropped 12 of the last 13 games with a home win over lowly Wyoming being the only positive. The last three games at home they have been beaten by a struggling UNLV squad by 15 along with losses to Air Force and Utah, two of the lesser teams in this conference. Colorado State simply has more to play for and they are the best team the Horned Frogs have played here in the last five weeks. Colorado State shot over 60% in the first meeting between these two and another big shooting night would not surprise. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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02-15-11 | Air Force +14.5 v. UNLV | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Air Force at UNLV
The Falcons are off an embarrassing 30 point home loss to BYU. But now they are on the road where they have been very competitive as of late. They are 2-3 straight up away from Colorado Springs with the losses coming by 3 points at Colorado State, 13 points at San Diego State and 10 points at BYU. Now they are getting more of a tariff tonight from a UNLV team that is 0-5 straight up against those same three teams. UNLV struggled with Air Force most of the first meeting until putting forth a big run to get the win and cover. Despite being at home tonight we simply can't see the Rebels having the same success. Keep in mind that UNLV is now 3-9 ATS at home and they are coming off a must win game Saturday against San Diego State. The Rebels faltered down the stretch and dropped a game they had circled. Now with Colorado State revenge on deck the team simply cannot be fully focused on an Air Force squad they have beaten 12 of the last 13 times they faced off in the Thomas & Mack Center. This UNLV squad simply put isn't strong enough to lay this type of number to anyone other than Wyoming and TCU in conference. Air Force was a banged up squad early in the season but right now they are gaining a great amount of confidence. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-12-11 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 129 | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
635/636 San Diego St at UNLV
The Aztecs have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series as they are one of the few teams on the schedule of UNLV that matches them in athleticism. UNLV isn't a good shooting team anyway which makes this match-up a bad one for the Rebels. UNLV needs to get in the open court to get clean looks at the basket and the Aztecs are so long and lean that simply doesn't happen. The last two meetings saw the Rebels fail to reach 50 points as they shot 36.1% and 32.7% from the floor. San Diego State has shown some chinks in the armor as of late but that has come against teams with a solid perimeter game like BYU. UNLV simply doesn't have that ability to shoot well from the outside. Therefore San Diego State can use their huge edge in rebounding to take advantage of a smaller Rebel squad. The last four meetings have seen a 9 rebound or more advantage for the Aztecs which is huge in a projected low scoring game. We look for San Diego State to once again stuff a questionable UNLV offense in another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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02-12-11 | San Diego St +1 v. UNLV | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
635/636 San Diego St at UNLV
The Aztecs have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series as they are one of the few teams on the schedule of UNLV that matches them in athleticism. UNLV isn't a good shooting team anyway which makes this match-up a bad one for the Rebels. UNLV needs to get in the open court to get clean looks at the basket and the Aztecs are so long and lean that simply doesn't happen. The last two meetings saw the Rebels fail to reach 50 points as they shot 36.1% and 32.7% from the floor. San Diego State has shown some chinks in the armor as of late but that has come against teams with a solid perimeter game like BYU. UNLV simply doesn't have that ability to shoot well from the outside. Therefore San Diego State can use their huge edge in rebounding to take advantage of a smaller Rebel squad. The last four meetings have seen a 9 rebound or more advantage for the Aztecs which is huge in a projected low scoring game. We look for San Diego State to once again stuff a questionable UNLV offense in another low scoring affair. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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02-12-11 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
553/554 Ohio State at Wisconsin
The Buckeyes enter this game undefeated on the season and the top ranked team in the country. But there are cracks starting to show in this program and it's happening more and more on foreign courts. The Buckeyes have been taken to the wire regularly on the road in Big 10 play winning by just 5 at Iowa, by 4 at Michigan and by 5 at Illinois. They barely beat an inferior Northwestern team by a single point just two weeks ago. While the ranking says they are the best team in the country power ratings say something completely different. Wisconsin is a perfect 13-0 straight up at home this year. Not only are they winning but they are doing so by margins. The Badgers are 7-2 ATS here and have won by 7 points or more in the last six Big 10 match-ups. The last time Ohio State stepped on this court they lost by 22. While that won't be the margin today we are confident that Wisconsin will continue their excellent home court play and win this one outright, knocking the Buckeyes from the unbeaten ranks. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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02-09-11 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +7 | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
779/780 Wisconsin at Iowa
Flat spot in the schedule for the Badgers who just beat Purdue and Michigan State at home and hosts #1 Ohio State on Saturday. That's their three most talented rivals in a four game stretch and it's well known that Wisconsin is a much better team at home than on the road. We simply can't see the Badgers being overly excited for this game based on the schedule and knowing the last time they faced the Hawkeyes they came away with a 27 point home victory. Iowa isn't one of the elite teams in the Big 10 Conference but they have been very competitive when playing at home. They beat Michigan State and Indiana the last two games on this court and actually have a two game winning streak overall, after taking care of Indiana on the road last time out. Iowa played Ohio State within 5 points here a couple weeks ago and they have enough talent to take Wisconsin to the wire here. PLAY IOWA |
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02-05-11 | Kansas v. Nebraska +6.5 | 86-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
593/594 Kansas at Nebraska
The Jayhawks are back after dropping a 74-63 home decision to Texas to end a long winning streak at home. They are off three satisfying wins with a meeting with hated rival Missouri coming up on Big Monday. But this isn't a good matchup for the Jayhawks who have really struggled with Nebraska as of late. Just three weeks ago at home Kansas won by just 3 points as they trailed at the half and nearly came up short on the scoreboard. Nebraska shot just 36.1% from the field on the road and still was in the game for it's entirety. The last three meetings the Cornhuskers have dominated on the glass which could be a big edge again for the host here. Nebraska is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home this season and they are off a blowout loss to Kansas State on the road. With no games until Wednesday at Baylor this becomes a huge contest for the host. If Nebraska doesn't get off to their traditional slow start they can pull off the upset here against a fat and happy Jayhawk squad that may be looking past them. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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02-05-11 | UNLV v. Brigham Young -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
577/578 UNLV at BYU
The Rebels have dropped four straight against the spread as they continue to have trouble putting the ball in the basket. UNLV is a very athletic team but they don't have a great deal of offensive talent. They get next to nothing from the so called big men in the lineup and the remainder of the team is built around perimeter players who aren't skilled at outside shooting. Willis for the most part is the only talented scorer that can take the ball to the basket and he has been less than 100% all season. BYU dominated the Rebels in Las Vegas earlier and we see a repeat performance here. UNLV simply didn't have anyone able to guard Jimmer Fredette as he was able to take over the game from an offensive perspective. Because of weak outside shooting UNLV didn't have a player that could challenge Fredette on the defensive end of the court. BYU is nearly unbeatable at home and they already took care of a similar styled and more talented San Diego State team here. This line is simply too short as the Cougars sweep the season series. PLAY BYU |
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02-02-11 | Marquette +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
739/740 Marquette at Villanova
Somewhat surprised by the line in this game as these two have been involved in some real battles as of late. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points or less. Both regular season games last year came down to the last possession as these two squads couldn't be any more even in their encounters. Sure we have a situational edge for the Wildcats who are off back to back upset losses, but this will be a very tough matchup for the favorite. Villanova has been nothing special off a conference loss posting a 7-7 spread mark the past three seasons. Marquette has cashed 3 of the last 4 times at Villanova and they have posted an excellent 9-3 spread mark against winning teams. The Golden Eagles have long been a play on team when on the road posting an 18-9 spread mark the past three seasons. Off three straight outright losses on the road as of late there is just as much motivation for the visitor as the host. This number is just too high considering the situation and the history between these two clubs. PLAY MARQUETTE |
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01-29-11 | San Diego +24 v. Gonzaga | 53-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
637/638 San Diego at Gonzaga
At first glance you would typically look to back the Zags here off a rare loss, and in the past that would have been a wise decision. But this year's club is way down from previous versions. They are 18-9 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent the last decade or so but 0-2 in that regard this season. Gonzaga has a big game at Portland up next so this is definitely a sandwich situation off the loss to St Mary's. San Diego is 9-4 ATS vs much better Gonzaga teams than the one they will face tonight. The last two seasons San Diego faced the Zags four times with the biggest defeat coming by 18 points. While the motivation is there for a Gonzaga blowout the situation and recent history says to take the generous points with the underdog. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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01-29-11 | Butler v. Valparaiso +2.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
543/544 Butler at Valparaiso
It's now very clear that this Butler squad is just a shell of the team that shocked the nation in making it to last years National Championship Game. They enter here at 14-7 on the season and just 6-5 straight up on the road. The Bulldogs have lost 2 of their last 3 games including an 86-80 home loss last time out to Wisconsin Milwaukee as a whopping 14 point favorite. Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last three seasons off a conference loss. Valparaiso has dropped 9 straight games to Butler so this is a huge game for the host. That fact may have been the reason for their home loss to Wisconsin Green Bay in their last outing. Valpo is 18-11 ATS here the last three seasons and they took Butler to the wire a season ago on this court. This team is well rested and focused. In fact, with 5 or 6 days of rest Valparaiso has posted an 11-0 spread record the past three seasons. Now 15-6 ATS off a conference loss we look for a very focused host tonight to end the long Butler dominance. PLAY VALPARAISO |
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01-26-11 | San Diego St v. Brigham Young -5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
793/794 San Diego State at BYU
While we love this Steve Fisher coached team from San Diego they have never had any success playing in this venue. BYU is 11-2 straight up hosting the Aztecs and despite the length and athleticism of San Diego State they have no answer for the perimeter game of the Cougars. The last two times BYU faced the Aztecs they shot 46.7% and 42.9% from behind the arc. That expands the San Diego State defense and limits their real strength, rebounding the basketball. BYU won both meetings between these two last year and 4 of 5 the last two seasons. BYU is a perfect 9-0 straight up on this court and while they have fallen asleep here against lesser competition, that win not be the case tonight. San Diego State considers themselves to be an underrated squad in the national rankings, but the truth of the matter is that based on this line the linesmaker knows BYU is every bit as good as the Aztecs. Series history and home court edge are keys as BYU puts themselves on the national radar with an impressive home victory over the Top 4 rated Aztecs. PLAY BYU |
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