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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -12 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas +16.5 v. Texas | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 18 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn +14.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. |
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09-30-23 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +6.5 | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points. The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota's ace, Sonny Gray, will try to put a bow on a sensational 2023 season against MLB's worst offense. Gray will take his 2.66 home ERA against his former team that's averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Twins shouldn't feel threatened by Oakland's offense at all today. The Twins have been mashing the ball, which is why they're the only team averaging over six runs per game this month. Luis Medina is the A's starter, and he has a 6.60 ERA on the road. The Oakland bullpen is MLB's worst. Minnesota should clobber plenty of baseballs in this one. It shouldn't be close. |
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09-27-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Too much at stake here for Baltimore not to lean their way in this matchup. They have a chance to rest some key players over the weekend and to limit the rest of their starters to a pitch count to keep them fresh but not tax them as they miss nearly a week while getting a well-deserved bye in the first round of the playoffs. Baltimore's Rodriguez has looked like a potential future ace with his lively arm and command coming together down the stretch. He has an ERA under two over his last five starts while slightly upping his K/9 rate. The Nats Corbin has bounced back from an 18-loss season a year ago with a solid season but he still gives up way too many hits per start and that plays right into the Orioles small-ball style of play. The Orioles will move runners along, work the count, and wear down Corbin to get to the Nats' weak bullpen. I don't expect the Orioles to let up here with a chance to possibly clinch the division. |
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09-24-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 102 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wacha has held nearly all of his opponents to three or fewer runs and has been especially impressive at Petco. He's facing a Cardinals club hitting .230 BA/.314 OBP/.372 SLG/.686 OPS in September and is missing a few of its best sluggers. I'm predicting a quality start from Wacha today. The Padres have been playing more freely recently, and I don't expect that to change in the series finale. They are facing a rookie hurler with very minimal game experience and have hit left-handers pretty well (.268/.342/.462/.805) in 2023. |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 4 Units After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game. |
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09-24-23 | Colts v. Ravens -7.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week. |
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09-23-23 | USC v. Arizona State +34.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge. The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally, if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG) |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break. Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game. |
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09-20-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kirby has stumbled a bit over his last five starts with an elevated ERA and 0-2 in that span. He has a perfect opportunity here against the light-hitting A's lineup to get back on track. Kirby has faced the A's once this season and was sharp going seven innings and allowing just three runs in a Mariners' win. The A's will have to cobble together a group of pitchers to with no available starter to give them a long stint. The Mariners lineup should have its way with the A's staff today as they try to stay with the Rangers and Blue Jays in the wildcard race. Looking for yet another easy win by Seattle. |
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09-19-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Castillo has had pretty good stuff recently, holding three of his last four opponents to eight total hits in 19 combined frames. He's held five of his last seven opponents to four combined runs, too. The M's could use another quality start from him today after dropping four of six games to the LA clubs. Blackburn has only lasted six total innings in his last two outings, giving up six runs and ten hits, including three home runs. The Mariners actually have better road splits (.248 BA/.326 OBP/.428 SLG/.754 OPS) than home splits (.239/.318/.402/.720) and had some success against the A's starter last season, scoring seven runs on ten hits on June 22. Seattle sports a 23-16 RL record (59.0%) against its division opponents this season. |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' offense will likely be chomping at the bit to face Corbin at home on Sunday. Corbin has given up a ton of hits compared to innings pitched and has an ERA over five this season. The Brewers have to feel confident with Woodruff going today. Woodruff is undefeated in his last five starts and has an ERA under two for the season. At home, Woodruff is 3-1 with an ERA of nearly one while piling up strikeouts. Once the Brewers 1A ace along with Corbin Burnes, Woodruff once again has taken on the look of a co-ace. |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears. Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven). |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Ole Miss | 23-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight. |
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09-16-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have everything to play for this weekend while the struggling Nats are just trying to close out their season. Washington has lost four of five heading into this series and the Brewers have won five of seven. The Brewers will be in a great spot on Saturday with their ace, Burnes, on the hill. Despite going 0-2 in his last five starts, Burnes has an ERA under three in that span. The Nats' Williams has an ERA over seven in his last five starts and over five on the road this season in 14 starts. Williams also has been bitten by the long ball this season and the Brewers are a far better home run-hitting team at home this season. Look for the Brewers to move one step closer to the National League Central Division title with a win |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home. |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14.5 v. Illinois | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games. |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State -3.5 v. Missouri | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points. Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win. |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3. Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS. |
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09-13-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spencer Strider enjoys pitching against the Phillies. The ace has limited them to three runs in 12 innings this season and has a dominating 1.62 ERA and a 6-0 record in six career meetings against the rivals. Phillies pitcher Cris Sanchez recorded a weak 4.88 ERA in August. I recommend the run line considering eight of the Braves' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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09-12-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland has lost four of its last six overall and when playing head to head versus Houston, has lost 10 of its last 11. Oakland also struggles on the road as the Athletics have lost 15 of the last 20 away from home. Oakland starter JP Sears has had two straight strong outings, but in two appearances this season versus Houston, has allowed seven runs in 11 ⅔ innings. Houston starting pitcher Justin Verlander has had three strong outings over the last four appearances, allowing a total of seven earned runs across 24 innings but six of the seven runs were in one game while allowing just one run across 18 innings in the other three starts. Houston's lineup top to bottom is much stronger than Oakland’s as the Astros have received excellent production from Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez and others. Houston does not have any of its position players on the injury list. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia will face the league’s toughest schedule, by measurement of each opponent’s projected season win total. By this criterion alone, teams carrying this sort of added weight have fallen short in the 6 years we’ve been charting the theory, going 47-41 SU and 40-46-2 ATS overall that season, including 10-24-1 ATS as a favorite. Remember, Philly faced the league’s softest schedule last season, and it helped land them a spot in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Keep in mind as well that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser if they are away in Game One of the season is 15-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games, look for the Hoodie’s 12-3 outright record at home in season openers to serve as a tall task for the Eagles. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Chargers | 36-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is coming off 3 straight winning seasons for 1st time since 1997-2003 (7 straight). However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games in '22 w/ their only win being a TD-less 11-6 win over the Jets in week 18. 1-4 in games not started by Tua last year. Last we saw the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 2nd quarter lead in Jacksonville before going down 31-30. They are the 1st team in NFL playoff history to lose a game with 5+ turnover margin. Herbert , 2nd player ever w/ 25+ TD passes in each of his 1st 3 seasons (P Manning). He has more PY (14,089) than any player in NFL history thru 1st 3 seasons. However, the Dolphins are 9-2 ATS as AFC West dogs and 8-2 ATS in season openers, and the Chargers 1-10 ATS non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, and just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +2.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in season openers the last six years, and 1-6 ATS in games before facing division rival Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, NFL season opening favorites who win 15 or games last season are 2-10 ATS as road chalk of fewer than five points. Finally, Pittsburgh is 10-2-2 ATS as a non-division home dog log under Mike Tomlin, including 4-0-1 ATS against foes that won 14-plus game the previous season. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover |
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09-09-23 | Central Florida v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years. |
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09-09-23 | SMU v. Oklahoma -15 | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return 16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4.5 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 65 h 39 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-09-23 | Ole Miss v. Tulane +7.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games. Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lions have struggled at 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-division games on Thursdays. We realize the defending champs were 7-3 SU but 0-10 ATS in one-score games last season, but evidence has it this should not be the case tonight. Not when you consider Andy Reid’s 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division foes – with every win by double-digits. And note that the Chiefs are looking to become the third team to reach four Super Bowls in a five-year span, along with the 1990-93 Bills and the 2014-18 Patriots. |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will dominate the final game of this series against the struggling Wainwright. The Cardinals' long-time ace has had a difficult year in what may very well be his final season in the big leagues. His ERA is over eight for the season and, in his last five starts, it is approaching 11. This does not bode well in a matchup against the best-hitting team in the big leagues. Wainwright's nearly two WHIP on the season will result in runners on base at all times and a one-sided Braves win. Braves' starter Fried is 3-0 in his last five starts and has an ERA of just 2.52 on the season. Fried does not need a heavy dose of run support but should get more than his share in this start. The Braves have won all three of the meetings with the Cardinals heading into this series as well. While the Cardinals are anxiously awaiting this season to end, the Braves roll on to solidify their place in the standings. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colorado Rockies have dropped four consecutive series and eight out of their last ten games. This is a team that no longer has Grichuk or Cron and is struggling to score runs, especially on the road. The Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies this season, winning eight of the ten meetings. Peter Lambert issued a poor 5.23 ERA in August. D-Backs’ pitcher Merill Kelly has silenced the Rockies this season, limiting them to only three runs in 12 innings. He is sporting a 2.96 ERA at home this season. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten home decisions and I expect another home win. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents. To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-02-23 | Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -14.5 | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits. UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007. |
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09-02-23 | South Florida v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western. Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa. |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9 v. Boston College | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable. Take the points. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +3.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010. |
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09-01-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ll see a couple of top-notch lefties on the mound, and these two lineups have done a good job against the southpaws in the last couple of weeks (Braves 153 wRC+ and .943 OPS; Dodgers 110 wRC+ and .767 OPS). Furthermore, both teams have plenty of dangerous arms in their bullpens. The Braves’ relievers have amassed a 3.25 ERA and 3.08 FIP in the last ten days and 27.2 innings of work, while the Dodgers’ bullpen has thrown 40.2 frames in that span while tallying a 2.66 ERA and 3.86 FIP. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded. |
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08-28-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kyle Muller will meet Seattle for the second time this season, and the Mariners tortured him for six earned runs on eight hits and two walks across five innings on May 22. I don’t trust the A’s to keep the Mariners lineup in check, so give me Seattle -1.5. Seattle’s bullpen has gone 3-1 with four saves over the last ten days (30 IP), tallying a 3.90 ERA and 2.74 FIP, while the Mariners lineup has recorded a 221 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (79 plate appearances) and 163 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers (275 PA). The M’s will have to slow down eventually, but I don’t see that happening in this series. |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The young and feisty Texans should be the more hungry team on Sunday night. The veteran Saints team has little to prove on Sunday night and even less reason to play some of their key veterans in a meaningless exhibition game. Houston, meanwhile, is still sorting out the quarterback position and may be more inclined to get another look at their full offensive line playing together behind Stroud. In addition, the younger Texans will have far more interesting choices to make at several positions and may want to take extended looks at several players trying to earn their way onto the 53-man roster. With that in mind, expect the Texans to be more aggressive, physical, and hungry on Sunday night. I think youth will be served in this game. |
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08-27-23 | Guardians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Noah Syndergaard is back on the hill for the Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. He holds a 6.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the year and has surrendered 12 hits and 8 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Overall, Syndergaard simply isn’t the pitcher he once was years ago. He’s on pace for the lowest strikeout rate of his career (5.77 K/9), this is by far the highest season-long ERA he’s recorded and lastly his velocity just isn’t there anymore. Six years ago, Syndergaard was throwing fastballs at an average of 99.6 mph whereas now he only hits 93 mph on a good pitch. I expect him to struggle today against a Blue Jays team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard as they did in yesterday’s contest. |
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08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos -5.5 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams lack depth and have shown a lot of flaws in their defense through the previous two weeks of the preseason. I’m expecting the Broncos to continue with a strong performance on the ground, so give me Denver to win and cover the spread in front of the home fans. The Broncos’ run D has done a good job thus far, and the Rams will have to lean on Stetson Bennett’s arm. It’s hard to trust the Rams’ receiving corps to carry the team for all 60 minutes, while Bennett is still trying to build some kind of chemistry with his new teammates. The Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS in their previous four preseason contests. |
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08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -11.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii +17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year. |
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08-26-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No need to really over think this matchup. On the mound for the Orioles will be Kyle Bradish, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home. Starting for the Rockies will be Chris Flexen, who has a 6.31 ERA and 1.68 WHIP since joining their rotation. The Orioles also have the vastly superior lineup, so look for them to earn a convincing victory. |
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08-26-23 | Navy +20.5 v. Notre Dame | 3-42 | Loss | -107 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980. |
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08-26-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
NFLX Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Pete Carrol comes into this one with a 12-4 ATS career mark in third preseason contests While Green Bay boss Matt LaFleur is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in similar Game Three’s. Additionally he is 2-6 overall in exhibition games entering this preseason. Finally, consider that Pete Carroll is 8-4 SUATS in his final preseason game with the Seahawks, including 5-1 ATS when not favored by four or more points. Additionally, teams coming off two consecutive home wins are 19-4 ATS in game 3 when they are dogs of 5 or fewer points. Finally, if the team is off a win of more than 3 points are 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS. |
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08-26-23 | Browns v. Chiefs +4 | 32-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City hasn't publicly determined if starters are playing, or for how long, but even if they don't this game should be tight. All of Cleveland's preseason games have been and it seems like the Chiefs are a deeper unit than the Browns. There's no reason to expect a blowout in this one. Take the Chiefs to keep this within a field goal at least, if not outright win. |
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08-25-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The O's send out the team's leading winner in Gibson on Friday night. He has an ERA over five at home this season but has still managed to go 5-3 at Camden Yards. Gibson is also 2-0 in his last five starts and will fair well against a Colorado lineup that has struggled on the road this season. Additionally, Gibson's ability to get deeper into games with a team-leading 13 quality starts will play well here as he will get the Orioles to one of the league's top bullpens. The Rockies are scoring nearly two runs per game less on the road this season and feature a lineup that has been depleted following the trading of two regulars at the trade deadline. The Orioles have the fifth-best home-winning percentage in baseball and will have their way with a Colorado team that ranks just 28th in baseball in road-winning percentage. |
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08-24-23 | Colts -4.5 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indy head coach, Shane Steichen, was Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator the past two seasons and knows the Eagles and their offense better than any coach on the opposite side of the field. Consider that the Colts are 6-0 SUATS in their second preseason road games while Philadelphia is a not so impressive 0-2 SUATS in second-home games (outscored 61-15) of late. |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago will turn to right-hander Michael Kopech today as it tries to salvage a game from Seattle. Kopech (5-11, 5.12 ERA) is coming off a road loss to Colorado on Friday, when he allowed nine runs and six hits -- including three home runs -- in four innings. Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Mariners, with 13 strikeouts in 10 innings. Facing host Seattle on June 16, he took a no-decision after allowing one run and six hits in 4 1/3 innings, with six walks and four strikeouts. Kirby (10-8, 3.23) got the start in Seattle's most recent bid for a nine-game winning streak before Wednesday. Facing the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 12, he took a no-decision after scattering three hits and seven strikeouts in nine shutout innings. Baltimore won 1-0 in 10 innings. Kirby hasn't faced the White Sox in his career. Seattle has won 21 of its past 26 road games. A victory Wednesday would give the club a 9-1 road trip. The Mariners are set to begin a six-game homestand against struggling Kansas City and Oakland before opening September with another 10-game trip. Seattle is 4-1 versus the White Sox this season after winning two of three games against Chicago in June. |
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08-22-23 | Rockies v. Rays -1.5 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays come into this series winners of three of their last four games and still very much alive to win the American League East division and possibly earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Littell has adjusted to his starting role with an ERA of just over two and a half in that time and has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. While the Rockies are coming off a good series against the White Sox, they are not the same hitting team on the road this season. The Rockies are scoring just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season, which would be the second-worst mark in baseball. Tampa Bay has hit extremely well at home this year and will take advantage of the Rockies' road woes. |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -3 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Washington Ron Rivera is 4-7 ATS in preseason home openers – including 0-3 ATS against opponents coming off a win. Baltimore comes into this one a long-term 67-37 SU and 61-31-2 ATS preseason in all games dating back to 1998, including 17-7 SUATS in road openers. Finally Washington is 1-9 outright in this preseason series, including 0-5 the last five and 0-3 SUATS as a host. |
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08-21-23 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winans will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to face visiting New York in the series opener. Left-hander David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA) will start for the Mets. Winans (1-0, 1.59) will be called up to make his third career start. On Aug. 12 he was added to the big-league roster for a doubleheader against the Mets and pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits, two walks and striking out nine. Atlanta won that game 21-3. Peterson will be making his 10th career appearance (ninth start) against the Braves. He is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA versus Atlanta. In his last start against the Braves on April 28, Peterson gave up four runs in five innings. Braves are 7-1 in their last eight home games with six wins coming by multiple runs. |
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08-20-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of second-year major-leaguers will get the ball this afternoon when right-hander Kyle Bradish and the visiting Baltimore Orioles look to complete a three-game sweep against lefty JP Sears and the Oakland Athletics. Bradish (7-6, 3.18 ERA) has pitched the Orioles to three straight wins in August, going 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA against the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and Seattle Mariners. He has struck out 19 over 17 2/3 innings in that stretch. The Fujinami trade has created more opportunities for Oakland's young pitchers, including the 27-year-old Sears (2-9, 4.27), who hasn't won since July 28. He has gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his three August starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Sears took his first loss of the season in the April series in Baltimore, allowing three runs in five innings in a 5-1 setback. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle homered off him in that game. |
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08-20-23 | Brewers v. Rangers -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scherzer has always been a big-game pitcher and he has brought that mentality with him to Texas in the early going. He is a perfect 3-0 in his three starts and has an ERA under two thus far. In addition, Scherzer has excelled while pitching in front of the home crowd with a perfect 5-0 record when pitching at home this season. Scherzer faces a Milwaukee lineup that scored just three runs total in the three losses in Los Angeles. He has done an exceptional job of keeping the ball out of play with his 11.7 K/9 rate since arriving in Texas. Scherzer should get plenty of support from baseball's second-highest run-producing team against the Brewers' Houser. Texas is #1 in baseball in runs per game at home this season with over six per contest. |
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08-19-23 | Cowboys +7 v. Seahawks | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We should see a solid number of points being scored this weekend, as the two squads combined for 47 in Week 1. The Cowboys may not have gotten the victory, but that certainly wasn’t due to their offense. Quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Will Grier both played fantastic, finishing with a combined stat line of 32/43 for 282 yards and two touchdowns to one interception. Even Deuce Vaughn produced a solid performance out of the backfield, finishing with one touchdown on 6.2 yards per carry. Consider as well, that playing against any home favorite of 6 or more points off a win if that win was by 10 or more points is 24-6 (80%) ATS. |
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08-19-23 | Bears +5 v. Colts | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
These two teams met this week in practice games, so there will be a some familiarity between the two when they suit up on Saturday night. While neither team has said who will start at quarterback and who will play among other key positions, I think both teams will give their young quarterbacks and new receivers a run in this game as they need to establish that chemistry. I give the edge to the Bears with Fields and Moore and their defense, winning the first unit battle. The Colts probably have better depth at quarterback, but they are dealing with a lot of injuries, so we'll probably see a lot of third and fourth stringers late. The Bears should be easily able to cover getting 5 points. |
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08-19-23 | Royals v. Cubs -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Royals' starter Singer has pitched better as of late, he has struggled on the road all season. Singer has an ERA over six away from home and has struggled with his command. He's also given up 61 hits in 49.2 innings on the road which will not play well against a Cubs offense that has been thriving up and down the roster. Cubs' starter Steele has had a dominant season with 13 wins in 16 decisions and an ERA under three. He's been even better at home this season with a 9-2 record and a 2.63 ERA. Over his last five starts, Steele is undefeated and won four times. The Cubs are very much alive in the chase for the NL Central Division crown and can't afford a letup against a team they should beat. |
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08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals to remain very conservative in the preseason to keep all of their starters healthy entering what should be a challenging season in what could be the best division in football, the AFC North. The Falcons have a team built to earn a playoff spot but aren't Super Bowl-driven just yet. Redder has a lot of game experience to earn this season and his learning curve would have to be very swift to get the Falcons to the Super Bowl. However, consider that playing against any home favorite of 6 or more points off a win if that win was by 10 or more points is 24-6 (80%) since 1983. |
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08-18-23 | Giants v. Braves -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are stumbling, losing seven of their last ten bouts after a series loss to the Rays. The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate, winning eight of their last nine home clashes after sweeping the Yankees. Giants’ starter Alex Cobb has not been a reliable option. The right-hander has issued a disastrous 8.04 ERA in his three starts this month and the Giants have lost in three of his last four outings. Spencer Strider has conceded two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. I can’t see a slumping Giants offense getting to MLB's strikeout leader. I recommend the run line considering nine of the Braves' last ten wins have occurred by two or more runs. |
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08-17-23 | Browns +4 v. Eagles | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL preseason home teams in Game Two have struggled against those teams playing their third contest, as they have gone 18-30-3 since 1990 against opponents who won at least one preseason game the previous year – including going 9-20 SU and 6-21-2 ATS as defending Super Bowl losers against opponents playing their 3rd preseason contest. The Browns are, 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS since 2017, including 6-0-1 ATS as a dog entering this year’s preseason. |
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08-16-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have been firing on all cylinders going 12-2 in August and are scoring 5.6 runs per game and should drive in runs at will against the Angels pitchers with Carey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and the rest of the lineup making contact and crushing pitches to easily drive in runs. The Rangers should limit the Angels' lineup with Jon Gray on the mound and giving way to the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. |
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08-16-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have struggled all season as injuries to both their lineup and their pitching staff has left the team scrambling to avoid the cellar of the AL East, where they currently reside. This was a team that was expected to contend instead of being mired in mediocrity. Having to throw a rookie like Vasquez, regardless of how sharp he has looked in limited innings at the big league level, against a lineup like Atlanta’s is like walking around with a kick me sign on your back. Morton got in the win in his last start despite reverting to his early career wildness. The Braves’ bats are more than capable of putting up big numbers. |
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08-15-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pitching matchup today features Atlanta's Bryce Elder (8-4, 3.64 ERA) and New York's Luis Severino (2-7, 8.06). Severino will make his 15th appearance, 14th start, of the season. He last pitched on Wednesday in his first relief outing of the year, following an opener. He took the loss after allowing four runs in two-plus innings against the Chicago White Sox. Severino yielded five hits and one walk while striking out two. In his last start, on Aug. 4 against the Houston Astros, he gave up five runs in four-plus innings during a losing effort. Severino missed the first 48 games of the season because of a right lat strain. He has yet to find the form that made him a two-time All-Star (2017-18). The Braves have scored six runs or more in five straight games and have won four of those games by six runs or more. |
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08-13-23 | 49ers v. Raiders +4 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 49ers and Raiders have been participating in joint practices in Nevada this week. QB Trey Lance will start for the 49ers as QB Brock Purdy is still recovering from the elbow injury he suffered in last season’s playoffs. QB Sam Darnold will also get some snaps. Former 49ers signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo is now the starter in Las Vegas, but he’ll only make a cameo, at best. Veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer also is likely to play little, if at all. Look for backup QBs Chase Garbers and Aidan O’Connell to get the longest looks, as they battle for the 3rd job. The Raiders played 4 preseason games a season ago with the Hall of Fame game, and Las Vegas was 4-0 against the spread (ATS). The Raiders also scored 23 or more points in 3 of the 4 outings. This organization has taken preseason games seriously in recent years, winning 11 of the past 13 outright. |
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08-12-23 | Chargers +3 v. Rams | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers will come away with the win in this one, as their youth leads the way. While a regular season game might lead to a different outcome, the Rams aren’t expected to play many of their super stars. The Chargers youth has been well-noted over the last few years, while a strong draft in the spring brings along plenty of talent, all itching to see the field. That youthfulness will be a major different in this exhibition, as the Chargers not only cover the spread, but also grab the win. |
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08-12-23 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +4 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There's a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, calling plays for the Boys this year, and I believe he will be out to prove himself in this game. There is a lot of talent on the Dallas offense, and Rush has proven to be a legitimate starting QB. I don't think the spread should be larger than a field goal with the Cowboys at home and predict we'll see a competitive performance from Dallas, even when Jacksonville's starters take the field. Jacksonville may lead the game for a while, but once its starters are out of the game, it will see its lead begin to slip away with Rush or Grier outdueling Beathard. The Cowboys won't give up too many points on defense after halftime, locking in with the home crowd at its back. The depth chart looks almost identical to last season, even in the second unit. That continuity will be evident in preseason week one. |
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08-11-23 | Broncos -6 v. Cardinals | 17-18 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A video from Arizona’s preseason practice recently went viral, but not for a good reason. The offense looked in shambles and nobody seemed to be on the right page which is incredibly concerning since they won’t have Kyler Murray back for a while. Heading into the first week of the preseason, the Cardinals’ quarterback options consist of Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune and David Blough. To the average NFL fan, you might be going “who?” to the last two names. Obviously, that’s a problem. Another problem Arizona has is the health of their regular starters, like Hollywood Brown and Zach Ertz, who are both dealing with injuries. If the Cardinals have to dig deep into their depth chart for Friday’s game, it could get out of hand quickly. |
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08-11-23 | Packers v. Bengals +4.5 | 36-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers get their respective preseasons underway in Ohio tonight, with the Packers firm favorites as Jordan Love looks to prove why he is QB1 for Green Bay. Factored into this line as well is the fact that Joe Burrow is out injured, meaning it will be Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning under center for Cincinnati. However, it feels like there has been an overreaction and there is value in taking the points with the Bengals. Cincinnati’s preseason record in recent years isn’t the greatest, but they do tend to run teams close. Only twice since 2019 have they lost by more than four points and there should be greater motivation in this game with both Siemian and Browning looking to make a case for why they should start the season if Burrow is unable to go. |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots +3 | 20-9 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams had their issues last season and the hope that they can improve in 2023 is a work in progress. Houston has a lot of youth on both sides of the ball as they added what they hope will be anchors for the franchise. New England does have the experience factor with Belichick as their head coach but they have to find ways to improve the offense. We know that the Patriots have some talent at skill positions but It remains to be seen how things will click on that side of the ball with O’Brien back to take over the play calling. As it stands, you have to give the edge to the team with some proven experience in this one. |
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08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles in the finale. He's looking for his first win since July 14.Kremer, 27, has received a no-decision in each of his past four starts. He allowed two runs and two hits in 5 1/3 against the New York Mets on Friday in his last outing. Kremer tossed his only career shutout against the Astros when he allowed four hits on Sept. 23, 2022. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in two career outings versus Houston, both coming last season. |
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08-09-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 0-2 | Loss | -162 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Montgomery will make his second start since a deadline trade from the St. Louis Cardinals today, seeking a second straight win. He had a successful Rangers debut, limiting the Miami Marlins to two runs in six innings in a 6-2 Rangers' home win on Friday. The 30-year-old has yet to get a decision with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against Oakland. The A's are expected to give right-hander Freddy Tarnok (0-1, 6.75) the bulk of the work early in the game. The 24-year-old will make his fifth appearance for Oakland this season after beginning the year in the minors. He's never gone more than three innings, those coming when he threw the seventh, eighth and ninth innings of a 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros last month. Tarnok's only previous start came in an 8-3 road loss to the San Francisco Giants. He served up three runs in 2 2/3 innings, striking out four. |
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08-09-23 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee starter, Houser picked up the win in his most recent start, allowing one run on four hits in six innings in a 14-1 victory over Pittsburgh last Thursday. Houser is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. Flexen will be making his third start for the Rockies since being acquired off waivers from the Mets on July 13. In his last start, he got his first win with Colorado, giving up three runs on 10 hits over five innings in a 9-4 win over the Cardinals last Friday. Flexen began the season with Seattle, going 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA, before being traded to the Mets, who designated him for assignment the same day. He is 0-2 with an 8.68 ERA in three career appearances, including one start, vs. the Brewers. |
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08-08-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with Oakland's best starter on the mound for this one, they shouldn't stand a chance. Scherzer amid one of his worst seasons is still capable of shutting down the Athletics lineup. Sears won't keep Texas off the board, or at least hasn't done it yet with two tries. Oakland's bullpen is probably going to get rocked by the Rangers' lethal lineup. Take Texas for an easy win in game two. |
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