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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-17 | Heat v. Wolves -4 | 109-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minny had been livening up, winning 8 of L10 (7-2-1 vs. points) before losing to Detroit and at Charlotte before hosting Orlando Wednesday. Miami was 1-3 SU and vs. the number prior to playing Boston, due to dips in production from Gs Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters. Waiters certainly had no shooting problem in first meeting, making 14 of 28 shots in an OT Minnesota win in Miami. The Heat were without C Hassan Whiteside that night, allowing T-wolf counterpart Karl-Anthony Towns have a good night (20 pts., 12 rebs.) as did PG Jeff Teague (23 pts., 11 assists and 6 steals. Favor Minnesota to break out even though Whiteside will be ready |
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11-24-17 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First meeting in a series that saw the host win and cover all 3 last year. Indiana’s personnel has changed, but the Pacers have been sharp the last week, winning and covering 4 straight with F Bojan Bogdanovic shooting 59% in his last 3. Indy has been off since Monday, enjoying an extended Thanksgiving break, and the Raptors are on a streak of their own, beating beat Houston, NO, NY and Washington before visiting the Knicks in a quick rematch Wednesday. |
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11-24-17 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 103-118 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston has been unconscious, including beating Orlando at the Amway Center as part of a 16-game winning streak heading into Miami Wednesday. That’s all well and good, but the numbers will begin to be stretched out on the red-hot Celtics, who’ve only been a double digit favorite once this season. Boston is just 6-14 laying more than 8 points at home over the last 2+ seasons, and Orlando has a history of success as a big road dog. The Magic are outscoring opponents 110-109 away from home this season. |
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11-24-17 | Missouri -10 v. Arkansas | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Right, Hogs put it to us in narrow loss to Mississippi State, despite a 195-97 rushing yard deficit. But have ceded 38.4 points per game in their last 10 underdog roles. Tigers smoking, with 5 straight wins & 7 straight covers: 260-83 point edge in their L5 games (+126 points ATS). And QB Luck is stratospheric 38 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Lay it. |
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11-24-17 | East Carolina v. Rutgers -11.5 | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Undefeated RU really digging in on the stop end, allowing a nation-low 47.2 points per game (32.3% FGs;4th)!. And with the Scarlet Knights’ star 6-2 jr. G Corey Sanders (13 ppg) positively responding to HC Steve Pikiell’s criticism of his poor practice habits, eager to lay single digits vs. erratic-shooting ECU, nailing a rim-clanging 28.8% (285th) from downtown. Be sure, Pikiell will demand a razor-sharp effort vs. Pirates with high profile clash at home vs. Florida State next up on Tuesday. Plus, opportunistic RU taking good care of ball, ranking a lofty 22nd in TO margin (+6.6 pg). Pirates No. 1 weapon G B.J. Tyson (17 ppg) is constantly hounded by deeeep Knight backcourt |
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11-24-17 | Navy +4.5 v. Houston | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Middies in off crushing loss to Notre Dame, as 17-10 lead evolved into 24-27 loss, despite a 277-163 rushing yard edge vs Irish, who entered with a 304-142 rushing yard per game edge. Houston allowing 31.6 points per game in their L5 tilts, losing to Tulane on 64-yard pass in L 6:13. Visitor is now 12-2 ATS in Navy contests |
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11-23-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Do the Giants own the AFC West elites, coming off their bye weeks, or not? First they took the Broncos, & now the first place Chiefs, picking Smith off twice, while holding him without a touchdown. He entered at a superb 18 touchdowns with only 1 interception, by the way. The end of the Saint/Skin game was very similar to the end of this past Super Bowl? Cousins was 22-of-32 for 322 yards & 3 touchdowns, only to see Washington's 31-16 lead with 3:00 left turn into an overtime loss. Washington 8-1 ATS as NFC favorite of more than 4 points coming off of 2 losses. |
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11-23-17 | Rhode Island v. Seton Hall -3.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With RI’s terrific but injury-prone 6-5 sr. G E.C. Matthews sidelined with a wrist injury, don’t mind laying a handful of points with veteran Seton Hall, which is the only Div. 1 team with three 1,000-pt. scorers—6-4 sr. G Khadeem Carrington, 6-6 sr. F Desi Rodriquez & 6-10 sr. C Angel Delgado, who’ll be a major headache for the Rams’ rebuilding front line that graduated the highly-effective duo of 6-7 F Hassan Martin & 6-9 F Kuran Iverson. Plus, Pirates’ slimmed-down 6-2 soph G Myles Powell now more adept at driving the lane after settling too often for the 3-pointer a year ago. |
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11-22-17 | Magic +7 v. Wolves | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando back on the road, which proved a dangerous adventure last season but not so bad yet in the new term, with Magic a respectable 4-5 SU first nine away. And Minnesota looks like it might be a slump-waiting-to-happen; T-wolves are 26th in the NBA defense, which is 29th if you remove garbage time, suggesting things could go south in a hurry. The most concerning thing, however, is that Minnesota's defense is 10.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Karl-Anthony Towns is on the court. |
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11-22-17 | Nuggets +10 v. Rockets | 95-125 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston beat Denver all four last season, though Rockets couldn’t cover the last two meetings. Now with Chris Paul back in the fold, Rockets finally at full strength, though more than a few NBA insiders were wondering how Paul and “The Beard” were going to co-exist with only one ball on the floor. We’ll see. We’ll also see what Nuggets are made of in this schedule stretch with 15 of 22 on the road. But Mike Malone getting some better work in recent games from his bench, in particular the mercurial Emmanuelle Mudiay, who scored 21 points on 8-for-10 shooting, added seven rebounds plus five assists in an encouraging recent win over the Thunder on Nov. 9 |
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11-22-17 | Spurs v. Pelicans -1 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with Kawhi Leonard’s status not expected to change for a while, Spurs were recording some better offensive numbers prior to Nov. 15 loss at Minnesota, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions over the previous seven games, with passing and assist numbers also up. After running more isolation than Pop wanted in first few weeks, the Spurs got the ball moving again, averaging 313.8 passes per game (same as the Warriors in that stretch) in recent 6-game home stand. But Spurs now back on the road, where they’ve dropped five straight spread decisions. Meanwhile in New Orleans, the Boogie Cousins/Anthony Davis pairing continues to thrive — they are both averaging more than 26 points and 11 rebounds per game (which is a historic pace for teammates, if they can sustain it). and Rajon Rondo has returned to the lineup |
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11-20-17 | Penn State -9.5 v. Pittsburgh | 85-54 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Big Ten sources keeping an eye on potentially-upgraded Penn State side with almost everyone back from last season and off to quick 3-0 break from gate in new term. Solid outside-inside combo of potent 6-5 G Tony Carr (20 ppg) & 6-7 F Lamar Stevens (15 ppg) intact from last season. That’s much more than can be said for Pitt, already with losses to Navy and Montana, as Kevin Stallings tries to pick up the pieces from a massively disappointing debut season and with a nation-tying 11 newcomers as a result of 4 seniors graduating & 5 players transferring out. |
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11-20-17 | Falcons +3 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the moment that this Falcon team has been awaiting. Remember last year's game here, when they didn't call that obvious pass interference, in the final 1:30, when Sherman or Thomas just tackled Julio Jones? But "Legion of Boom" could be without both of these stars vs this dangerous team. Eight sacks vs Dallas, their most since 9 on 10/2/05 vs Minnesota. Seattle's defense shut down Peterson on Thursday, with Wilson 22-of-32 for 238 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (now 19/6). Atlanta is 9-1 ATS as a road dog off allowing under 8 points, while Seattle is 1-5 ATS off a Thursday game, & also 1-5 ATS vs the NFC South. |
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11-20-17 | Clippers v. Knicks -1.5 | 85-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have fallen into an abyss in November, losing and failing to cover six straight, and eight of nine, into last Friday at Cleveland. Injuries piling up for Doc Rivers, with Patrick Beverley missing recent action due to a bad knee, fragile F Danilo Galinari (strained glute) on the shelf since early November, and preseason Euro sensation G Milos Teodosic still sidelined with ankle issues. Minus Gallinari and Beverley, Blake Griffin’s shooting stats have deteriorated to the point he recently recorded his worst shooting accuracy (just 31%) over a three-game stretch in his entire career. And in recent six-game slump, LA had the worst defensive numbers in league. Knicks now good enough to take advantage with Kristaps Porzingis (28.9 ppg) continuing to deal and increasing contributions from Euro rookie G Frank Ntilikina |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -5 v. Cowboys | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wow, these Eagles just keep on doing it. In off their bye. Have outscored opponents, 64-12, in the 1st quarter this year. Check their current 7-0 SU run, covering their last 6 by 64½ points. Wentz, of course, is their trigger, throwing for 23 touchdowns, with only 5 picks. Four touchdown passes vs the Broncos. And get this: he has three 4-touchdown performances in the last 5 weeks. And toss in the fact that Philly ranks #1 in rushing defense. The Cowboys are without "Zeke", although Dak has 25 touchdowns in 50 games, the 2nd fastest to get there, behind only Dan Marino. But this one is an Eagle call. |
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11-19-17 | USC -3.5 v. Vanderbilt | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After opening-night rout of local big West entry CS Fullerton, SC might have been guilty of reading too many of its glowing press clippings as it couldn’t put away Summit rep North Dakota State until the final minutes three night later. That close shave vs. the Bison should make it easier for Andy Enfield to get his squad’s attention for this trip into SEC country vs. Bryce Drew’s Vandy side that is suddenly asking a lot of questions after losing to crosstown Belmont last Monday. The Commodores are not hitting their triples (only 27% in first two), and Drew is scrambling to departed 7-footer Luke Kornet, who did a bit of everything for Vandy the past couple of years. Kornet’s defense could have also come in handy vs. Trojans’ NBA bound front liners Bennie Boatwright & Chimezie Metu, scoring 37 points per game between them in early going. |
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11-19-17 | Pacers +5.5 v. Heat | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It looked like Miami was cruising to a cover back on Oct. 21, when the Heat opened up 21-point lead with just 16½ minutes to play, but the Pacers wouldn’t go away, closing the lead down to just 2 with 12 seconds left. Miami shot 51.7% led by Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters combined for 42 points and drained 17 of 29 FGs. Indiana G Victor Oladipo had 28 in that encounter, and Oladipo has been the best player for the Pacers all season, scoring 23 points per game and shooting a respectable 47.4%. Indy C Myles Turner was out of action in that game, but he’s returned in the last 10 days and is contributing 13 points per game and 7.6 rebounds per game since his return. And Miami hasn’t covered in 7 tries at American Airlines Arena this season. |
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11-19-17 | Wizards +5 v. Raptors | 91-100 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington won in Toronto back on Nov. 5, which was the Wizards’ 6th cover in the last 7 visits to the Air Canada Centre in this visitor-oriented series. Will look that way again, as the Wizards are 5-1 vs. the number on the road this season and had won and covered 4 straight prior to hosting Miami on Friday. In first visit, Washington G Bradley Beal dropped 38 points on the Raptors, making up for the absence of all-star John Wall. Another star was Washington C Marcin Gortat (game-high 12 rebs.), who out dueled Euro counterpart Jonas Valanciunas, who was in foul trouble. |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two could end up playing each other again in January. Rams have won 3 games by 30+ points. In their previous 213 games, they did it 3 times. And this season, they've scored 40+ points 3 times. In their previous 161 games, they managed that just 3 times. So 4 straight wins, & covers, including +42½ points ATS in their last 2 road games. Check Goff with 355 passing yards & 3 touchdowns. Five straight wins for Minnesota (Keenum: 304 passing yards & 4 touchdowns vs Washington). Rams are 12-1 ATS vs .500+ favorites vs an opponent who is off 2+ SU wins. |
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11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints -7.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About time that I stopped going against the Saints, who've won 7 straight games, covering 6 (+104 points ATS). Check averaging 35 points per game in their last 5 contests, while holding 5-of-7 opponents to 13 points or less. Ingram is in off a career-best 3 touchdowns, & 131 rushing yards, with New Orleans finishing with 298 rushing yards & 32 first downs. Right, they never punted in rout of the Bills, scoring 5 times in their first 6 possessions. Redskins have dropped 5-of-6 vs the points, although Cousins had 327 passing yards & 3 touchdowns vs Minnesota, 2 rushing & 1 passing. And they have the Giants & Cowboys on deck. I jump on this rolling train. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs -10 v. Giants | 9-12 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, the visiting streak in Giant games is now by the boards, after NY was done in at San Francisco (Niners' first win). But the other side of that trend is the Giants losing at home (by 30 points ATS hosting the Rams just 2 weeks back). Last week, Eli tied brother Peyton, for the most consecutive starts, with 208. And Manning an efficient 28-of-37, along with 2 touchdown passes, so he now has 14 touchdowns with 6 interceptions for the year. But NY's 30th-ranked defense has now allowed 106 points in its 3-game slide. KC's Smith finally threw his first pick of the year (18 touchdowns with only the 1 interception). Chiefs rested off 1-3 slide, after 5-0 start. Lay it. |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars -7.5 v. Browns | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Browns' woes continue. Led the Lions, 10-0, early in the game, for their first double-digit lead of the season, but it wasn't to be as Detroit pulled away with 21-0 windup on 3 Stafford touchdown passes. But note Cleveland with a 28-16 first down edge, with 201 rushing yards, and a 34:34-25:26 time edge. Kizer: 232 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Jacksonville's Marrone lost here as HC of the Bills in '13, 37-24. Three straight wins for "Sacksonville", on tipped OT FG vs the Chargers, although no touchdowns for Fournette (1st time this year). The Jags are 8-1 ATS vs the AFC North, while the Browns' Jackson is 3-7 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-18-17 | Air Force +17.5 v. Boise State | 19-44 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miracle cover for Broncos last week, who clicked on 2 Rypien touchdown passes in final 1:41, sending it into OT, for a 59-52 win, as 6½ point favorites. Whew! Home now 4-23 ATS in Boise State games. Falcons in their last 4 games: 45, 45, 0, & 14 points, but the dog is 16-1 ATS in Air Force contests. No other way to go in this one. Take the points. |
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11-18-17 | Nevada -10.5 v. Pacific | 89-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sources report that shrewd Nevada HC Eric Musselman has made a seamless transition after the departures of the top scorers from last years loop winner and Big Dance qualifier. Musselman’s latest batch of transfers are already making a huge impact, specifically ex-NC State twins and 6-7 wings Cody and Caleb Martin, tallying almost 35 points per game between them as the Pack (90 points per game) is off to a winging 3-0 SU and spread start. Meanwhile, Iowa State transfer G Hallice Cooke keeping defenses loose while canning a cool 70% beyond arc in early going, and opponents (including A-10 heavyweight Rhode Island) having big problems coping with Nevada’s non-stop 6-7 PF Jordan Carolina (averaging 21 & 10 the first week). Asking a bit much of Damon Stoudemire’s completely-rebuilt UOP to stay within earshot, especially noting how fellow WCC member Santa Clara was buried at home by 30 at midweek by the rampaging Pack |
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11-18-17 | Missouri -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Amazing turnaround for Tigers, who have not only covered 6 straight, but who turned 5-game losing streak, into 4 game winning run, averaging 53.3 points per game! Vanderbilt allowing 46.2 points per game in its 6 losses. |
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11-18-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has been much more competitive the last few weeks, covering 5 of last 6, as 7 players have averaged double-digit scoring and the team shot 49.4% in the last 5. Boston was put to the test in its Nov. 6 visit to Philips Arena, the two teams’ initial meeting this year. The Hawks dropped a 110-107 decision, but got the cover, with Atlanta holding a lead with under 2:00 remaining. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest -1.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week Deacons something else, with a 734-621 yard edge over Syracuse, with a 43-5 point windup. Wolford last two weeks: 694 passing yards. The dog is 6-2-1 ATS in Wolfpack games this year, but note a 778-424 rushing yard deficit the past 3 weeks. Finley now 15 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, but can't ignore host owning this series. |
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11-18-17 | Jazz v. Magic -6.5 | 125-85 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando cooled off in losing final 3 of its 4- game Western road swing, but Magic are back at home, have had two days off and catch a cold Utah club coming off a visit to Brooklyn last night. Magic fans (and HC Frank Vogel) must be happy to see their team with a winning record after collecting an average of just 26 wins per season over the last 5 years. Meanwhile, Utah has some key injuries that potentially might hurt them badly. Defensive “plastic man” C Rudy Gobert is out, and point G Ricky Rubio is iffy with an Achilles problem (remember, backup PG Dante Exum is out for the year). |
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11-18-17 | Nebraska v. Penn State -26 | Top | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Lions seemed to shake off woes of incredible losses to Ohio State & Michigan State, with 35-6 romp of Rutgers, but note just 304 yards, with Bradley now at 33rd in the land in rushing. 'Huskers a 340-rushing yard deficit in 54-21 loss to Minnesota. And note allowing 43.7 points per game in last 9 underdog roles |
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11-18-17 | La Salle v. Northwestern -7.5 | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Northwestern mentor Chris Collins was highly displeased with his team’s poor defensive effort in 92-88 home loss to Creighton on Wednesday. So, with the Wildcats surely digging in on the stop end, willing to lay single digits vs. LaSalle squad in its toughest test to date. NW’s star 6-7 jr. F Vic Law, who poured in 30 points. vs. Blue Jays, should have another field day vs. the Explorers’ still-shaky interior defense, while marvelous 6-3 sr. G Bryant McIntosh controls the flow from the perimeter. Resilient Wildcats 7-1 vs. spread last 8 following a SU loss |
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11-18-17 | Mississippi State -11.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Bulldogs stayed with Alabama, losing in final 0:25. The host has a 255-91 point edge in Mississippi State games this year, but note 'Dogs covering their last road game by 18½. Hogs are barely competitive, with their 2 covers by ½ & 4 points. And they're allowing 39.6 points per game in last their 9 dog role setups. |
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11-18-17 | Rutgers +11 v. Indiana | 0-41 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads stand at 4-6 SU, with a win here a must if a bowl is to be, thus the importance of it goes without saying. For the Hoosiers, they snapped a 4-game slide with their win over an Illinois squad which has been nothing short of a doormat for just about the entirety of the season, having dropped 8 straight, while covering just twice since week 2. The same can be said of Indy, with its 2 covers since Sept coming bye ½ & 1 point. The Knights are on a 5 game ATS run, & have been competitive vs all opponents, save for Ohio State, as even in their loss to Penn State last week, they had only a 104-yard deficit. Double-digit underdog role just too juicy |
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11-16-17 | Titans +7 v. Steelers | 17-40 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have won 4 straight games. Old hat for the Steelers, but the Titans hadn't done that since '09. And the best start for this franchise, since '08, when they ended up as the #1 seed in the AFC. Check those 27-15 first down & 180-53 rushing yard edges over the Bengals, taking it on a Mariota TD pass in the final 0:36. Pittsburgh has taken 5 in a row in this series, with their current run made possible by a pair of 2nd half touchdown throws from Ben, who has just 12 touchdowns with 10 interceptions for the season. A quirk shows that the Steelers lost their last non-division home game by 28 points ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-game lead in their division. But this one is going to be tight. Take the points. |
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11-15-17 | Spurs +5 v. Wolves | 86-98 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rematch of SA’s 107-99 opening night win and cover when Spurs were fueled by a LaMarcus Aldridge double double (25 &10). But still waiting for Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker to get back onto the court. Minny also 7-2 SU thru Nov. 9 in games when Jimmy Butler has made it on the floor, which he’ll have to be if T-wolves are to break recent slump vs. Spurs, who have won all five meetings since LY. |
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11-15-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -4 | 95-99 | Push | 0 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drummond scored 14 of his 24 points in the third quarter and Harris knocked down three 3-pointers to finish with 13 points as the Detroit beat the Bucks 105-96 snapping a three-game losing streak to their divisional rivals. But the Bucks are a significantly different team than they were Nov. 3. The day after that meeting, the Bucks acquired Eric Bledsoe in a trade with Phoenix and have won three in a row since the veteran guard joined the team. Bledsoe is averaging 13 points despite shooting just 37.8 percent from the floor. Those numbers are pretty good when you consider that Bledsoe had gone two weeks without playing after having a falling out with the Suns. |
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11-15-17 | Wizards +1.5 v. Heat | 102-93 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami had a chance to pull off a winning road trip but dropped a 112-103 decision at Detroit on Sunday to settle for a 3-3 excursion. The Wizards are continuing to get better as well and picked up their third straight win with a 110-92 win over the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Washington will play 11 of its next 14 games on the road. |
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11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stick a fork in this squad. It doesn't matter if it's Simien, Brock, or Lynch, the Broncos are done. There is only so much that even this defense can do. Were out gained 419-226, & had a first down deficit of 25-14 in unimaginable 51-23 loss to the Eagles. Hadn't allowed 30 points in a game this year, nor any touchdown runs. And things don't get any easier, now catching the defending champs off their bye. Anything else? This defense (still #1) has forced only 7 turnovers all season. Pats on 4-game winning streak, with Tom at 2,541 passing yards & 16 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. And with Gronk fully healthy, not about to buck this squad. |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 7-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twenty-four years ago, the Cowboys came to Atlanta, & won their 2nd of back-to-back Super Bowls vs the Bills. That game was played in the now extinct Georgia Dome. Anytime the 'Boys take the field this year, the question looms: "Will he play?". Obviously the continuing saga that is Elliott's availability has to take its toll, although you would never know it as Dallas is at 31.7 points per game in their last 6 games. 'Boys looked impressive, holding KC's Hunt to 37 rushing yards (entered at 95.4 yards per game). Falcons in off seeing brilliant WR Jones drop a wide open TD with 8:12 left, & have lost their last 2 home games by 14 & 16 points ATS |
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11-12-17 | Texans v. Rams -11.5 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 young & exciting teams looked like they were both heading to the playoffs, prior to Watson's injury, which is a crushing blow, & boy, didn't it show on Sunday vs the Colts. With Deshaun running the offense, Texans set a franchise record by scoring 30 or more points in 5 straight games. But in loss to Indy, nary an offensive TD until the final 6:11. Rams' Goff set career highs with 4 TDs & 311 passing yards in 51-17 rout of the definitely "hapless" Giants. L.A.'s 6-2 start is franchise's best since 2001. Rams are 13-2 ATS as favorites off scoring more than 34 points. Going in opposite directions |
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11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twelve years ago, Pitt came in here & shocked the top-seeded Colts in the Divisionals, on the way to a Super Bowl title. Remember Big Ben's tackle after the "Bus" fumbled? Steelers in off a bye, so note winning their last 2 road games by 19-13 & 20-15 scores, covering their last 3 visiting roles. The Colts halted a 3-game skid, in taking the crippled Texans, 20-14, behind 308 passing yards & 2 touchdowns from Brissett, thereby preventing their first 4-game losing streak under Chuck Pagano. Steelers are 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of 2 road games, & 12-1 ATS vs an opponent with double revenge. It's Pittsburgh |
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11-12-17 | Browns v. Lions -10.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The most obvious edge in this contest is the overwhelming 19-turnover advantage enjoyed by the Lions, who are +7, while the Browns are at -12. It continues. Cleveland now stands 1-24 & 2-31 SU. And note that Brownies have allowed 31 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games, while posting a current spread record of 5-15. This is one of those old school NFL matchups. Back to Jim Brown days when they met for the title. No pick for Cleveland's Kizer vs Vikings (1st time all year). Tight games rule Detroit games, with last 3 home games decided by 4, 3, 5 points SU. Won't be anywhere near that here. |
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11-11-17 | Boise State -5.5 v. Colorado State | 59-52 | Win | 100 | 98 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see. In this one, we have a Ram team which is -49½ points ATS in its L2 home games, while piling up an 0-4 spread slide, with its only SU wins in its L4 games coming by 2 & 3 points. The visitor is 22-4 in Bronco games, & Boise has a 1,012-581 yard edge L2 weeks. |
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11-11-17 | Tennessee v. Missouri -11 | 17-50 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tigers suddenly "money", with 5 straight covers (+85½ points), with balanced 227 rushing yard, 228 passing yards vs Florida. Vols snapped 4 game slide, last week, but rank as nation's 5th worst offense, & can't march Tiger's firepower |
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11-11-17 | Alabama -13.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Alabama not all that impressive in win over LSU, with 151-116 rushing yard & 306-299 total yard deficits. But never down for long, with 59-0 & 41-9 wins off L2 ATS setbacks. Bulldogs peeked to this one in 22 point ATS loss to U Mass. Eleventh in rushing, but Alabama defense will be ready. Lay it |
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11-11-17 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The slumping Clippers played last night in OKC, and they were just 1-5 vs. the number prior to that game. Note HC Doc Rivers’ crew is just 2-9 vs. the points in last 11 when un rested. New Orleans is rested after visit to Toronto Thursday, and the Pelican front line continues to produce big numbers, with C Boogie Cousins and PF Anthony Davis combining for more than 57 points per game and 26 rebound per game. Davis had made 65% of his shots in the 3 games prior to facing the Raptors, and L.A. is 4-14 vs. the points last 18 trips to New Orleans. |
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11-11-17 | Florida Atlantic -5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 48-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Five straight wins for FAU, with a 237-132 point edge (+80½ points ATS). Check Singletary at 140 rushing yards per game & 19 touchdowns. Bulldogs in weekly squeakers, & in off 100-yard deficit vs North Texas. FAU call. |
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11-11-17 | NC State v. Boston College +3 | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 87 h 38 m | Show |
Rating; 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week About time that I jumped on this legitimate train that is BC. Not only 6 straight covers, by a combined 119 points ATS, but check +98½ points in their last 3 games, including upsets of Louisville, Virginia, & Florida State, with the latter 2 by 31 & 32 points SU! Are rested, to boot, while facing a Wolfpack outfit that is in off no less than #3 Notre Dame, & #4 Clemson. No questioning the fact that NC State QB Finley is the real deal, but check a 542-203 rushing yard deficit past 2 weeks. Climbing off the carpet vs this oncoming train, is unlikely |
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11-10-17 | Nets +9 v. Blazers | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland is just 1-5 as Moda Center favorite this season, and Brooklyn covered in Phoenix and Denver on back-to-back nights in last 2 games on this road trip. Head coach Kenny Atkinson is getting increased production from backup C Tyler Zeller of late, as he’s scored 14 points per game on 71% shooting in past 3 games, and G D’Angelo Russell has scored 21 points per game on 46% shooting in his last 4. Portland leader Damian Lillard has been missing his threes (just 19% last 3 games), while opponents shot 49% in last 3. |
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11-08-17 | Eastern Michigan -2 v. Central Michigan | 30-42 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles keep on doing it, with current 17-3-1 ATS run, not affording another slip, with bowl game still a shot. Central Michigan in off 21-0 edge in 4th to take Western Michigan, but 6-12 ATS |
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11-05-17 | Raiders -3 v. Dolphins | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 33 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Raiders have lost for the 5th time in 6 games, so the much awaited return of Carr has resulted in a pulse-stopping win over the Chiefs, & a sloppy, 4 turnover, 34-14 loss to the Bills, with a 166-54 rushing yard deficit. After scoring on their opening drive, the Raiders' next 7 possessions ended with 4 punts, 3 turnovers, & a failed bid to score at the end of the 2nd quarter. The weather in Buffalo was horrendous, but won't be here. Miami in off their 2nd shutout loss in their last 5 games, managing a mere 196 yards, with 3 sacks & 2 picks from Moore. Miami 1-10 ATS off giving up over 34 points. Must win for Raiders. |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York beat the Pacers in 3 of 4 meetings a year ago, reversing a trend that had seen the Pacers win 10 of the previous 11 games in the series. Both teams famously lost all-star forwards to Oklahoma City in offseason trades, as first Paul George of Indiana (in July) and then Carmelo Anthony of the Knicks (in late September) were dealt to the Thunder. Now the Knicks are rebuilding around Kristaps Porzingis and the Pacers are pinning their hopes on G Victor Oladipo (24 ppg) and C Myles Turner (out with concussion). |
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11-05-17 | Celtics v. Magic +3.5 | 104-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has already claimed some impressive scalps this season, including Cleveland and San Antonio in a hot start that saw the Magic win 6 of its first 8 SU prior to hosting Chicago Friday. Now the foe is the sizzling Boston Celtics, who’d won and covered 6 straight prior to visiting Oklahoma City two nights ago. Celtics won all 4 meetings with the Magic last season, covering 3 behind the play of then-guard tandem Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Those two are gone, as are Jae Crowder and C Kelly Olynyk. Those players were 3 of the Celts top 4 scorers in the series and all shot 50% or better. This is a different (and better) Magic team than the one that covered just 14 of 41 at home last year. |
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11-05-17 | Rams -4 v. Giants | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams have been a great surprise this season, currently sitting atop the NFC West, with only 1 team (Eagles) having more wins. L.A. has topped 32 points 4 times, behind the vastly improve Quarterbacking of Goff, while Gurley is the perfect complement. A couple of weeks ago, I pegged the Broncos as a near "can't miss" choice, when hosting the Giants' punchless overhead game of NY. But it didn't work out, thanks to Denver's equally inept offense. As noted above, that isn't the case with the Rams. And L.A. is in off its bye week |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -6 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Obviously, the Jaguars are at their best when taking to the road, as the visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS this year. A 4-3 start for Jacksonville, scoring 29, 44, 30, & 27 points in those wins. Are in off a bye, following Bortles season-high 330 yards, which ended a 4-game losing streak at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jags set franchise record with 10 sacks, recording first shutout win since Oct, of '06, with a 518-232 yard edge over Indy. Cincinnati is in off 1-point win over Indy, rushing for just 58 yards vs a team that allowed the Jacksonville to score on their first 4 possessions, just a week earlier. Took Indy thanks to a pick-6 in the final 6:58. Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS off a bye, & Cincinnati is 2-8 vs an opponent who is off a bye. |
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11-04-17 | Oregon State v. California -7 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 93 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day Home team in California games is 7-0 ATS (+125 points), but Bears just 288 passing yards per game in their L3 home games, while the Beavers suddenly an offensive force (833-607 yard edge vs Colorado & Stanford). However, I am going to the perfect ATS mark for the home team. |
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11-04-17 | South Carolina v. Georgia -24 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, the Gamecocks sit at 6-2 SU so far, missing cover vs Vanderbilt in final 4:50, but rank just 105th in rushing, with QB Bentley undependable. Georgia keeps rolling: 8-0 SU, & 7-1 ATS (4 points). Try 85-43 first down & 1,379-368 rushing yard edges the L4 weeks. Number 3 in scoring & total offense. Georgia call in this one. |
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11-04-17 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -6 | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis, which lost PF JaMychal Green in the opener, could be without star PG Mike Conley. Conley is very iffy after missing the Orlando game with an Achilles problem. The Grizzlies have covered just 1 of last 5 games, while the Clippers are off to a strong start behind all-star play of F Blake Griffin (23 ppg, 8 rpg, 5 apg) and team defense limiting opponents to 100 ppg and 43%. Lean to Clippers side that’s 4-1 as a favorite this season. |
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11-04-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -13.5 | Top | 37-48 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week The Irish are cementing their place by the week. Check 318-50 rushing yard edge over North Carolina State, on the heels of a 377-76 rushing yard edge over Southern California. Deacon QB Wolford blitzed Louisville with 461 passing yards along with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, with TD passes of 32, 25, 52, 55 yards. No team has topped 20 points vs Notre Dame this year. Give the points. |
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11-04-17 | Stanford v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week Washington State doesn't fool around when they lose, with setbacks of 34 & 21 points. However, they bounced back from 1st loss with 18-point home cover. 32 first downs & 602 passing yards for naught: 58-37 loss at Arizona. Stanford lucked out (fumble recovery & touchdown in L0:20) vs Oregon State, & lost to Washington State last year. |
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11-04-17 | UMass v. Mississippi State -28 | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs have been absolutely superb, as far as dominating lesser opponents, is concerned, covering their 4 previous favorite roles by 26½, 2, 26, & 18½ points. In their last 3 games, they have a 115-31 point edge, while ranking 13th in run offense, as well as 6th in the land in total defense. The Minutemen have been decent plays, but are simply out of their league |
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11-04-17 | Auburn -15 v. Texas A&M | 42-27 | Push | 0 | 85 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A week ago, I had the notion that the Aggies would stay with Mississippi State, as slight home dogs, having competed favorably vs Alabama & Florida. Well, it wasn't to be, as the Bulldogs simply wore A&M (+2½) down, in a 35-14 beat down (35-7 in 4th). Must now run into a squad that sits at 6-2 SU, with margins of 49, 36, 30, 25, 38, & 21 points. I backed off the Tigers, after they failed to improve on a 35-3 halftime lead over Ole Miss. But a major bowl awaits, if they can run the table. Series rife with huge road wins & covers. |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -4 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing like an elite team and attempt to halt a four-game losing streak when they host the Charlotte Hornets on Friday. San Antonio was outclassed 112-92 by the Golden State Warriors on Thursday and looks to rebound against the Hornets, who have dropped 10 straight in San Antonio since posting a 92-85 victory on Nov. 15, 2006. |
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11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic -8 | 105-83 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Aaron Gordon raised his level of play right along with the red-hot Orlando Magic and the former fourth-overall pick looks to continue his resurgence when the struggling Chicago Bulls pay a visit on Friday night. Gordon, who scored a career-high 12.7 points per game last season, is averaging 20.7 early on in 2017-18 and drained a decisive 3-pointer with 52 seconds remaining in Wednesday’s 101-99 victory at Memphis. The Bulls are in rebuilding mode and their record shows it with one victory in the first six games and 100 or fewer points scored in five of the contests. |
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10-29-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -13.5 | 115-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State has had a stranglehold on the Pistons for years, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings. However, Detroit is a bit better set to fight back against Golden State this season with the return to full health of Reggie Jackson and the acquisition of defensive specialist G Avery Bradley. Those two will play key roles against the Warrior all-star backcourt of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. Up front, F Tobias Harris is having by far his best season, scoring 24 ppg on 52% shooting, and at 6-9, he’ll make Kevin Durant work on the stop end. Points worth taking with live dog. |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets -3 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte HC Steve Clifford has had Orlando’s number the last few years, winning 9 of last 10 meetings vs. the Magic and covering 8 of those. The Magic have started much better than expected, winning 3 of first 4 games (including a win at Cleveland!). Orlando has a poor man’s “big three” with Fs Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and C Nikola Vucevic all scoring more than 21 ppg in the early going, and Gordon and Vucevic are both taking down double-digit rebounds. Still, Charlotte has allowed just 97 ppg and is 3rd in defensive efficiency, compared with Orlando’s 112 ppg. |
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10-29-17 | Wizards v. Kings +5 | 110-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings are trying to usher in a similar culture. Fox, the 19-year-old rookie, will start his first game, with the team announcing Saturday that forward Zach Randolph and point guard George Hill will sit out to rest. Fox has averaged a team-best 14.8 points and 5.0 assists in about 27 minutes a game in Sacramento's first five contests, four of which Sacramento had a chance to win. Fox had 14 points and five assists in Thursday's 114-106 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. He's also developed a chemistry with 25-year-old rookie guard Bogdan Bogdanovic in the two games since the Serbian rookie returned from injury. Bogdanovic has scored 22 points in two games and made 9 of his 22 shots. Skal Labissiere also is expected to get his second start of the season. Labissiere is averaging 12.2 points and 5.2 rebounds in five games this season. Guards Buddy Hield (12.2 points) and Garrett Temple (10.0) and center Willie Cauley-Stein (11.2) also are all are averaging double-digits in scoring for Sacramento. |
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10-29-17 | Texans +7.5 v. Seahawks | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can the Texans make another playoff run, without J.J. Watt again this year? Were smoking hot, before their bye, with a 39.25 points per game average in their last 4 games. Watson continues to amaze, as he has thrown for at least 3 TDs in his last 3 games, becoming the first rookie to perform such a feat in NFL history. Now 15 TD passes, the most by a rookie in his team's first 6 games. Oh, Texans set a franchise record by scoring 30+ points in 4 straight tilts. Seahawks an enigma since blowing that Super Bowl. Did their thing vs the Giants: 7 points, 14 first downs, 46 rushing yards. I'll call for the upset here |
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10-29-17 | Bucks -5 v. Hawks | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta needs to regain services of PG Dennis Schroder and PF Ersan Ilyasova before I take a look at the Hawks. Sure, Atlanta has covered 5 straight against the “Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo, and this Hawk contingent bears little resemblance to the teams of recent seasons. Giannis has a better efficiency rating than LeBron James or Kevin Durant, and he’s powered the Bucks to a solid start. Conversely the Hawks had lost 3 straight with no covers prior to the Thursday-Friday back-to-back set with Chicago and Denver. |
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10-29-17 | 49ers v. Eagles -12.5 | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right, I rarely step out with an NFL double digit favorite, & with good reason. However, the Niners just may have run out of weekly squeaking losses, as the Cowboys did more than expose San Francisco, with that 40-10 romper, running for 265 yards, while totalling more than 500 yards. Philly, of course is in off its Monday war with the Redskins, but has only been bested once this season, by the Chiefs. Niners' Beathard was sacked five times in his debut, while losing 2 fumbles. Eagles covered their last HG (prior to Monday Nighter) by 33½ points, while Wentz a comfortable 13/3 entering that one. Eagles' 3rd-ranked offense vs Niners' 28-rated defense. Philly follows in Cowboys' footsteps. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders +3 v. Bills | 14-34 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 met in this very same stadium for the 1990 AFC title, only to see the Bills destroy the Raiders, 51-3, the week before "Wide Right". Raiders snapped 3-game slide with final play TD pass from Carr to Crabtree, on 85-yard drive vs the Chiefs. Carr: 29-of-52 for 417 yards & 3 TDs (no picks). We'll see what happens to BeastMode, after getting tossed for shoving a ref. After all, he did start his career here with the Bills in '07. For Buffalo, this marks just the 4th time that it has won 4 of its first 6 games, during its 17-year playoff drought. Bills 0-7 ATS as single digit favorite in the 2nd of 2 home games |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -10 v. Browns | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Remember the "Miracle at the Met", when Ahmad Rashad caught Tommy Kramer's "Hail Mary" at the gun to beat the "Kardiac Kids" back in 1980? Check Latavius Murray rushing for 113 yards & a TD while Forbath kicked six FGs in backing another suffocating from the Viking "D" in LW's win over the Ravens. Sacked Flacco 5 times, in allowing just 208 TYs. Keenum 20-of-31, & a pick (5/2 for year). Brown "D" did its part LW, holding Titans to zero TDs, but Cleveland "O" also didn't reach the end zone, losing FG contest, 12-9. Browns 1-23 & 2-30 SU, with a 5-14 spread run. And now they've lost Pro Bowl tackle Joe Thomas. A Viking call. |
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10-28-17 | USC v. Arizona State +3.5 | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trojan defense continues as their bane, with 301-rushing yard deficit in Notre Dame debacle (28-0 at half). So have come from a 15-6 ATS run, to 1-7. Multiple turnovers in all 8 games, & Darnold has just 17 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Arizona State came from 120th defense to giving up 14 & 18 first downs in upsets of Washington & Utah. Yet another "upset" for the Sun Devils. |
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10-28-17 | Suns v. Blazers -11.5 | 107-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phoenix brass fired Earl Watson just three games (all losses, including which was the worst in team history) into the season, replacing him with assistant Jay Triano. Then G Eric Bledsoe (2nd-leading scorer last year at 21 points per game) popped off, was essentially kicked off the team, and they will trade him ASAP. The result was Phoenix beating Sacramento and Portland, reinforcing the knee jerk reaction. Home games against the Kings and Jazz are one thing, going in to the Moda Center and coming out with a victory is a different matter. The Trail Blazers (3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. the points through Oct. 25) have picked up where they left off last season, with CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard combining for 47 points per game, and Lillard in particular garnering kudos for his defensive play. The Blazers lead the league in “efficiency differential” and 2nd in defensive efficiency. |
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10-28-17 | Lakers +11 v. Jazz | 81-96 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lots of hate between these two fan bases dating back to the days of Karl Malone and John Stockton. Utah has won 8 of the last 9 meetings with the youthful Lakers (only loss in Kobe farewell game), and catch L.A. coming off a home game against Toronto last night. Heading up to the altitude of Salt Lake City can be a difficult adjustment, and this will be the first such trip for key Laker rookies Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma. This will be a battle of tempo, as the Lakers set the second-fastest pace in the NBA, while the Jazz play at the second-slowest. It’s more likely the Lakers slow down and play the speed Utah prefers. |
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10-28-17 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two just met Monday in Houston, where Memphis scored a 98-90 upset win. Rocket Gs James Harden and Eric Gordon combined to make just 7 of 23 three-pointers that night, and only one other Rocket cracked double-digits. Memphis C Marc Gasol was too tough for Houston counterpart Clint Capela, leading the Grizzlies with 26 points, and Rocket Fs Trevor Ariza (out with a foot injury) and Ryan Anderson were a combined 2 of 12, scoring just 7 points. The Rockets are now down two starters (PG Chris Paul & Ariza) and playing the 2nd night of back-to back sets. |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +1.5 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mississippi State rolled (stat wise) over the Aggies last year, & are in off combined 80-17 point edge in their last 2 games. However, the home team in the last 5 Mississippi State games holds a 197-37 point edge (+166 points ATS). Texas A&M are 2 points from being 6-0 ATS this year |
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10-28-17 | Utah -3 v. Oregon | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Time for the Utes to regroup, after suffering their third straight loss, & first ATS miss, in shocking 30-10 upset at the hands of an underrated Arizona State outfit. For some reason, Utah plays its best ball away from home, covering all 6 of their last half-dozen shots, including a 12-point cover at Southern California, on the heels of a late 3-point setback vs Stanford. Thus, last week's failure could easily be due to the aftershocks of a pair of demoralizing setbacks. The Ducks have been complete flops, since losing QB Herbert. Check a 113-31 point deficit the past 3 weeks, while on 5-14 ATS run. |
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10-28-17 | Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The drop in offensive production from the Hilltoppers, who have lost 7 offensive starters from last year's team, is patently obvious. Note ranking 1st & 6th in scoring & total offense in '16, while checking at 79th & 85th in those categories this season. Just 2 covers this year, with 1 by of those 2 by 1½ points, The Owls, on the other hand, have been smoking, with a combined 165-79 point edge in their last 3 games, including a 447 rushing yard, 804 total effort last week. They well remember last year's 52-3 embarrassment. |
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10-28-17 | NC State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 68 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Inter-Conference Game of the Week The Irish sure came through in annihilation of Southern California, with 377-76 rushing yard edge, behind both Adams & Wimbush (191, 106). Now at +114½ points ATS this year. But NC State is on 6-0 SU run, ranking 6th in rushing defense. However, no team has scored more than 20 points vs the Irish this year. The Irish keep on winning. |
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10-28-17 | Kansas State -24 v. Kansas | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week This is one that Kansas State rarely let get away, with 7-1 & 18-5 ATS margins. Enter off 3 straight losses (2-of-3 in OT, & in L0:07). Check 263 rushing yards vs Oklahoma. Kansas has a 153-19 point deficit in their last 3 games, managing 9 first downs & only 83 yards combined in their last 2 games. Blowout! |
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10-28-17 | Air Force +10 v. Colorado State | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Rams last week, three 2nd quarter touchdowns, but just 6 points in the other 3 (27-24 escape at New Mexico). The Underdog is now 13-1 ATS in Air Force games, & Falcons at 956 rushing yards the past 2 weeks. They won at final gun last week. |
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10-28-17 | Wisconsin -25.5 v. Illinois | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Lucky 1-point cover for Badgers last week, with just a 215-143 rushing yard edge. But they have the horses, with Taylor 3rd-rated runner, & Hornibrook 9th-ranked passer. Wisconsin just 12 points from a 19-4 ATS run. Illinois stayed with Minnesota, despite 292-121 rushing yard deficit (cover in L0:23). Maybe last week, but not here. |
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10-27-17 | Nets v. Knicks -2 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is 3-1 SU and 4-0 vs. the points since season-opening loss at Indiana, but much of the Nets’ success has been due to sparkling play of G D’Angelo Russell (23 ppg, 47%), and Russell is out for this game with a balky knee. Winless New York is dropping in class after losing to OKC, Detroit and Boston, so Knicks will be thirsty for a victory with Cleveland coming up next. |
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10-27-17 | Spurs v. Magic +5.5 | 87-114 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic have their own big-time post scorer in Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 23.8 points on 59.7 percent shooting and 10.3 rebounds. Vucevic and frontcourt mate Aaron Gordon will try to make Aldridge work hard on the defensive end and lead Orlando to a fourth win in its first five games. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins +3 v. Ravens | 0-40 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two consecutive comeback wins for the Dolphins, who overcame a 17-point deficit in the 2nd half at Atlanta, following that up by erasing a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Jets, 31-28, this week, with Moore (for injured Cutler) throwing 2 touchdown passes in the final 12 minutes. So 3 straight Miami wins, off that horrid 40-6 combined deficit in their 2nd & 3rd games. Note that the Dolphins hadn't allowed more than 20 points, previously. Two straight losses for the Ravens, & 4 of last 5, after opening at 2-0 (Bengals & Browns). Remember, Dolphins covered their last road game by 16 points, while Ravens are 1-11 ATS vs opposition off a pair of SU/ATS wins. So Miami, as the dog, seems a bit juicy. |
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10-25-17 | Wizards -5 v. Lakers | 99-102 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Washington Wizards look to open 4-0 for the first time in 39 years when they continue a four-game road trip at the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. The Wizards are the only Eastern Conference team without a loss after beginning their trip with a 109-104 win at Denver, riding 83 points from a starting five that has found an early rhythm. |
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10-25-17 | Raptors +12 v. Warriors | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State dropped two of its first three games and was struggling on the defensive end before holding the Mavericks to 39.6 percent shooting in Monday's win. The Warriors, who led the NBA in defensive field-goal percentage last season, allowed their first three opponents to shoot a combined 47.1 percent from the floor but locked down in the second half in Dallas, when they limited the Mavericks to 41 points while running away with the win. The Raptors promise to be a much tougher team to guard and began their six-game road trip with a 101-97 loss at San Antonio on Monday. Toronto is restructuring its offense a bit this season to encourage more shooting and ball movement, and it struggled to 10-of-37 from 3-point range against the Spurs. |
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10-25-17 | Wolves +3 v. Pistons | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Minnesota Timberwolves will try to rebound from an ugly home loss when they visit the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. Two days after an impressive win at Oklahoma City, the Timberwolves returned home to sustain a 130-107 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday, allowing the Pacers to shoot a franchise-record 66.7 percent from the floor and getting outscored 69-46 after halftime. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 28 points in the loss for Minnesota, which played without swingman Jimmy Butler (illness). The Pistons have exchanged wins and losses through their first four games and suffered through their worst offensive showing in Monday's 97-86 loss to Philadelphia. Langston Galloway made 3-of-4 3-pointers off the bench while the rest of Detroit's roster combined to hit 3-of-26 from beyond the arc. |
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10-25-17 | Rockets v. 76ers +4 | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets are dealing with an injury to one of their point guards as well in Chris Paul, who went down in the season opener with a knee bruise originally suffered in training camp and is expected to miss at least another week. Paul watched as his teammates failed to reach 100 points for the first time on the young season and suffered their first loss, 98-90 at home to the Memphis Grizzlies, on Monday. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About time I jumped on this smoking squad, which has only a loss at Kansas City, to prevent perfect 6-0 start, although their 5-1 record is the best mark in the NFC. QB Wentz in Thursday win at Carolina had 222 passing yards & 3 touchdowns, so now at 1,584 passing yards & all-important 13 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Philadelphia has had Thursday to Monday. An extra 4 days to prepare for this. Peterson is 6-0 ATS at home off a SU win, while Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS on Monday, off a SU win. Consider that the Redskins are 2-9 ATS vs an opponent off a double digit cover. Eagles just keep it going. |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams | 0-33 | Loss | -120 | 63 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Check "has-been" Peterson's 134 rushing yards & 2 touchdowns in his Arizona debut. That's 47 more yards than the 87 he had in 4 games with the Saints. So 160 Arizona rushing yards, after entering at 52 rushing yards per game. A huge help for Palmer, who completed his first 14 passes vs the Tampa Bay. Rams came in nicely for us last week, but they're 1-11 ATS vs an opponent off SU dog win. |
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10-22-17 | Saints -4 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 63 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Packers without Rodgers so they went with Hundley vs Minnesota, but just 10 points, 14 first downs, & 227 yards, & 3 interceptions, about what Aaron would toss over the course of the year. So, what was supposed to be the ultimate QB matchup, is no more. Check running backs Ingram & Kamara combining for 237 yards vs the Lions, while Saint defense forced 5 turn overs, scoring on a fumble return & a pair of pick-sixes. Only 9th time since '92, that neither Favre nor Rodgers will be under center for the Packers. |
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10-22-17 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 63 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Jets lost at home to the Pats, that was a game for 60 minutes. Seferian-Jenkins losing control of the ball at the goal line, resulting in a touch back was a stomach punch to the Jets. McCown: 31-of-47 for 354 yards with 2 touchdowns (also 2 interceptions). Dolphins came from 17-0 deficit, for 20-17 win at Atlanta. Remember, this is the team which had just 3 offensive touchdowns coming into that game. Jets are 11-2 ATS vs a .500+ division opponent who is off a pair of SU/ATS wins. Division road dog in this one |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, I know that the host team is 5-0 ATS in Colt games, entering previous Monday Nighter vs Tennessee. The Jags got 130 rushing yards from Fournette, in last week's 27-17 loss to the Rams, when they allowed a pair of special team touchdowns (kick off & blocked punt returns). That one marked Jacksonville's 9th loss in their last 10 home games. Fournette, by the way, scored on a 75-yard run on Jags 1st play from scrimmage. And remember, his previous carry was 90 yarder, that sealed their win at Pittsburgh. Note that Colt home games this year have been decided by 3, 3, & 3 points SU. I'll call for a halt to that trend. |
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10-22-17 | Titans -5.5 v. Browns | 12-9 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Titans are coming in off their Monday game with the Colts. Browns now on 1-22 & 2-29 SU runs, averaging 13.2 points per game in 13 of their last 14 games, & are currently on a 4-14 ATS slide. Went with Hogan over Kizer vs the Texans: 1 touchdown pass, with 3 interceptions, in 33-17 loss. So Browns win less, with head coach Jackson's record in Cleveland now 1-21 SU. Hogan, by the way, became the Browns' 28th starting QB since 1999, when they had a chance to draft Donovan McNabb, instead of Tim Couch. |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee has held an edge over Portland, covering 10 of the 12 meetings over the last six seasons, and last year the Bucks won and covered both games with accuracy from beyond the arc, making 43% of their treys. Milwaukee G Malcolm Brogdon (LY’s Rookie-of-theYear) shot 67% in the two games, and F Giannis Antetokounmpo stuffed the stat sheet against the Blazers (19 ppg, 10 rpg, 7 apg, 3 bpg) as usual. Portland was not a good road dog last season (11-17 vs. the points), so recommend home team and motivational specialist HC Jason Kidd. |
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10-21-17 | West Virginia -8.5 v. Baylor | 38-36 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An emphatic exclamation point to 0-6 SU log of Bears (first 0-6 start since 1969), with 59-point, 747-yard allowance at Oklahoma State, although they did cover their last home game by 20. West Virginia overcame 35-17 3rd quarter deficit, for 46-35 win over Texas Tech. Another 5 Grier touchdown passes and now has 21 touchdowns with 5 interceptions for the year. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 94 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Another win, another spread loss for the Trojans, who are in off stopping Utah's 2-point try in the L0:42, for a 28-27 win. Check Darnold in that one: 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. A rarity this year as he has 15 touchdowns with 9 interceptions for the season. The Irish come in 1 point from perfection and are +63 points ATS, holding all opponents below 21 points. I'll lay small spot. |
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10-21-17 | Central Florida -7 v. Navy | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 89 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Again-&-Again. Check Central Florida's 253-84 point edge so far (+88½ points ATS). Nicely balanced, behind #2 ranked QB Milton (37-of-46 in the last 2 weeks). Navy got the bacon with touchdown & 2-point conversion in last 3:25 at Memphis, despite 5 turn overs. The number 1 rushing offense in Navy, but no matching defense. |
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10-21-17 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 41 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Eagles of Eastern Michigan have been one of our pet plays over the past 2 years, & with good reason, as they are now on a 15-3 ATS run, with the dog on a profitable 14-2 spread run. The only reason that this one wasn't placed higher is the fact that, although they keep paying off, they are in off an excruciating 28-27 loss, to Army, failing to convert a 2-point try, in the final 0:49. The Broncos of Western Michigan aren't the same squad as last year, having lost 10 starters (including brilliant QB Terrell), along with their head coach. |
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