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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-21 | UC-Davis +6.5 v. Oregon State | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Beavers are terrible. They are 1-8 SU and ATS so far this season. They are averaging just 65.1 PPG and allowing 72.2 PPG. The Aggies have looked impressive so far this season. They are just 4-3 but they are trending in the right direction. This is a perfect spot for the Aggies to stay hot. The Aggies will have a huge advantage on the glass in this matchup. This will help give them easy second chance baskets against a terrible defense. The Aggies will keep this game close enough to cover the spread. |
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12-14-21 | Alabama v. Memphis +4 | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite luring the nation's No. 1 recruiting class, Penny Hardaway's Tigers have been mammoth disappointments on a four-game losing streak. The program hasn't lost five in a row since Jan. 29-Feb. 16, 2000. The models still largely love Memphis, though, and I do think the team gets fired up tonight in a White Out game against the No. 6 Tide. Already, at least 22 NBA teams have requested credentials for the game. This is the Tide's first true road game and that does matter. I'm not saying Memphis will win -- wouldn't stun me, though -- but 5.5 points is too many. |
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12-14-21 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Minnesota -15.5 | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Corpus Christie is getting far too much love here. Minnesota has been playing great basketball and is going to have a pretty easy time winning this game. My model makes this game a 20 point win for the Gophers. This one is already moving as it opened at 15, I'd play it all the way to -17. |
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12-14-21 | Jacksonville -1.5 v. Southern Miss | 62-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have the wrong team favored in this one- my model is making the Jacksonville Dolphins a 1 point favorite against Southern Miss. USM has failed to cover in three straight games while Jacksonville holds solid 5-1 ATS record so far this season. Another telling sign is that Jacksonville beat UNCW by 29, while USM beat them by 14. With the home court factored in that still makes Southern Miss about 6-8 points worse by comparison. Take the point and a half and watch for Jacksonville to probably win this game on the floor. |
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12-14-21 | Warriors -4.5 v. Knicks | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are a ton of wrinkles to this game. The most notable storyline is Stephen Curry looking to break the all-time three-point record. However, this is a tough spot for the Warriors team, itself. They just played Monday and plane issues will force them to not even travel from Indiana to New York until today. With that being said, the Knicks are also in a less-than-ideal situation with R.J. Barrett, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes all in the health and safety protocols. This won’t be easy for either team, but I’ll take Curry to help lead the Warriors to cover. |
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34 | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model doesn't really do huge spreads, it operates much more successfully on lines that are less than about 18 points. However, I don't need my model to make this play on LSU, the line is far too small. LSU is 8-1 against the spread and is facing a Northwestern State team that lost on the road to SMU by 47, UL Monroe by 30, and Houston by 41. LSU beat UL Monroe by 62 to open the year and has many other impressive wins. This should be a cover at 31.5, lay the large number and enjoy the show. |
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12-14-21 | North Carolina A&T v. East Tennessee State -12 | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line is way too low, I'm seeing some projections around 17 and 20 for this game. My system is coming in a bit more conservatively at 15 points but this is definitely a strong signal from the model. ETSU is a borderline top 100 team while NC A&T hovers around the bottom 300 depending whose rankings you use. There's a good chance that 7-3 ETSU can run away with this on 3-8 NC A&T. Grab the home favorite. |
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12-14-21 | St Francis PA v. Hartford -1.5 | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not exactly a marquee matchup between the 3-5 Red Flash and 1-8 Hawks on Tuesday. I don't read too much into Hartford's record because it has played just one true home game and lost close to Boston U, which is pretty good. The Hawks have played a very tough schedule. Hartford leads the American East in shooting at 45.8 percent overall and 35.3 percent from deep. Hartford brings back 62.9 percent of the team's scoring — including four of its top seven scorers -- from last year when it won the America East title and lost to eventual champion Baylor in the NCAA Tournament. The SportsLine Projection Model has Hartford winning by five and a few other models have about the same. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Any team with any realistic shot at a Super Bowl needs help from the defense, and it’s worth noting the Cards’ stop-unit has been out-yarded in three of its last five games. The Rams will look to exploit that tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in their last four-division contests after surrendering fewer than 10 points in its last game, as well as 8-1 SUATS the last nine games in this series (the loss being a 37-10 defeat in L.A. in Game Four this season). Given the Redbirds’ ruinous 1-7 ATS mark in its last seven games as a division host, as well as its 2-10 ATS record at home on Monday Nights, and head coach Sean McVay’s 10-5 SUATS on the division road, including 3-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, which all sets up perfectly knowing that Arizona head coach Kingsbury is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite with the Cardinals, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points. |
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12-13-21 | 76ers -3.5 v. Grizzlies | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As if going up against Joel Embiid wasn’t difficult enough, the Grizzlies will likely have to do it without Steven Adams (ankle), who is listed as doubtful. Brandon Clarke (knee) has already been ruled out, and even Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) is questionable. If Jackson sits out, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. Even if he plays, though, I like Embiid to help the Sixers cover. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island -6.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | 82-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Less than ten college basketball games today, but we can still find some value. It appears that Milwaukee is getting a bit too much respect here, my model is projecting Rhode Island to win by 9 points. URI has done well against the spread so far this season, going 6-3 as a favorite. They're going to have advantages on both sides of the ball in this game, but it's going to be especially tough for Milwaukee when they're on offense. Expect the defense for the Rams to lead the way. They'll handle business on the road, lay it. |
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12-13-21 | Heat v. Cavs -5 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Give the Heat credit. Even with Jimmy Butler (tailbone) and Bam Adebayo (thumb) out, they have won both of their last two games. One win was a shocker over the Bucks, although their last victory came against a Bulls team that has been ravaged by COVID-19. This is a tall order for them against the Cavaliers, who beat them by 26 points in Miami a couple of weeks ago. The Cavaliers have been beating just about everyone of late, winning seven of their last nine games. All of those wins came by at least 13 points, as well. |
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12-13-21 | Northern Illinois v. Chicago State +1.5 | 70-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have been terrible this season. They have one of the worst offenses in the country. Out of 358 teams, they rank 357th in scoring offense and 356th in field goal percentage. The Cougars have been exceeding expectations this season. They are 7-2 ATS this season including 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They are the better team and should be favored as the home team. The Huskies are 1-6 SU away from home and the Cougars are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home. The Cougars should be able to control this game and cover this spread. |
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12-12-21 | Wolves v. Blazers | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games with six losses coming by at least 10 points. Their only win during that stretch game against the rebuilding Pistons. They are hoping to get Damian Lillard (abdomen) back, but even if he plays, he might be limited and/or rusty. CJ McCollum (lung) will definitely be out, so they will at least be without one of their top two scorers. The Timberwolves haven’t been great, either, with five straight losses, but they’ve had an incredibly difficult schedule. Add in the possibility that D’Angelo Russell (ankle) could return after practicing Saturday and the Timberwolves could break their losing streak. |
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12-12-21 | 49ers +1 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay. |
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12-12-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -3.5 | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  The Bears are ranked number two in the country for good reason. Baylor is the only team in the country that Kenpom ranks top ten in both offense (5th) and defense (7th). The Bears have been dominant this season as they are 8-0 SU and their closest game was an eight point win. Villanova only has two losses this season and they have come in their only two games against top ten teams. They lost by nine to UCLA and by six to Purdue. The Bears will be able to do enough to cover this spread. |
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12-11-21 | Idaho v. CS Bakersfield -11.5 | 58-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  Idaho is getting a lot of love in the market after their recent win over South Dakota State, but I think that is giving us a lot of value going the other way. My model agrees, making this a 15.5 point expected win for Bakersfield. Bakersfield has not played in a while, but their last game was a win over Boise State, they won 46-39 when made 15.5 point underdogs! We've seen how solid Boise is, therefore I think the Roadrunners should be able to handle Idaho by 12. Idaho lost to a similarly ranked Utah Valley squad by 38 earlier this year, so I think theres a good chance at a beat down. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. 76ers | 93-102 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  The Warriors have played the majority of their schedule at home, which has helped them to a 21-4 start. They haven’t exactly struggled on the road, though, posting a 7-2 record there, including 6-3 ATS. The Sixers are a disappointing 5-6 at home, including 1-4 ATS as a home underdog. Despite the matchup problem that Joel Embiid presents, I still like the Warriors to win this in deciding fashion. |
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12-11-21 | VCU -4.5 v. Old Dominion | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  The Rams have been playing well recently. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They are also 4-0 ATS away from home. The Monarchs are still without one of their best players, Charles Smith, who is out with mononucleosis. It hasn’t hurt them yet but now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country. According to Kenpom, the Rams are the third ranked defense in the country. They are going to prevent the Monarchs from doing anything offensive and easily cover this spread. Lay the points. |
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12-11-21 | Cal-Irvine +3 v. Fresno State | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have done well against the spread this year. However, I have the wrong team favored in this one- my model is making UC Irvine a favorite by a full point. I think it'll be a nail biter of a game but it's always good to take the points in those scenarios, especially when you're getting what appears to be the more complete side. I'd play this all the way down to +1.5 here if it happens to fall, but grab the points while you can. |
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12-11-21 | Drexel v. Abilene Christian -4.5 | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My projections are showing a good chance that Abilene Christian can run away with this game over Drexel, so the line is definitely a bit small. The official number I'm getting is an 8.5 point victory for the Wildcats. They've covered all but their first game of the season against Utah and should be able to keep it rolling today. Drexel has looked solid but I'll fade them on the road in Texas, lay it with Abilene. |
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12-11-21 | Arizona v. Illinois | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Wildcats look unbeatable right now. They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this season. Kenpom ranks them as the 18th best offense and the 7th best defense. All of the Illini's production has come from Kofi Cockburn. They are missing two rotation guards. The Wildcats will be able to slow down Cockburn and the Illini will have no answer. This line is way off. Take the undefeated Wildcats to win this game. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Midshipmen have gone 18-5 ATS as dogs when coming off one SUATS win-exact, including 4-0 ATS in military matters, as well as 7-1 ATS with a losing record. Army counters with a lackluster 2-5 ATS effort in this series of late, and has gone a weak 1-4 ATS as chalk in 2021. The Mids are also not lacking in incentive: with Army playing with an Armed Forces Bowl bid in their back pocket, and knowing the CIC Trophy stays with them regardless, the Swabbies have only one thought in mind: Beat Army, Period. Finally, consider that playing on any sub .666 college football Military team as a dog if they are coming off a win and are facing a fellow Military team is 10-1 ATS since 1995. |
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12-11-21 | Canisius v. Youngstown State -6.5 | 43-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I missed picking on Youngstown State last time but I think they bounce back nicely here today, they've still covered two of their last three contests. My model is making this a 9 point win for Youngstown and I'll gladly take three points of value on a home team. Canisius has not covered in any of their last five games and the Penguins should take care of business. Lay the points. |
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12-10-21 | Red Wings v. Avalanche -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aves got all their key players back from injury last game but Nazem Kadri did leave the game early and is listed as day-to-day. Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are both healthy tho. The Aves are 7-2-1 at home this season and 7-3 ATS at home. They average 4.7 goals per game at home and they face the Red Wings on the back end of a back-to-back. The Wings are 4-8-1 on the road and 4-9 ATS, I like the Aves at home on the puck line against a weary Detroit team most likely starting their backup goalie. |
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12-10-21 | Bucks v. Rockets +9 | 123-114 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  I wonder if this is the first time in NBA history that a team on at least a seven-game winning streak is a home dog of at least nine points. I'd be surprised if it has happened before. I fully expect Milwaukee to win, but I have to take this number on Houston considering how well and hard the Rockets are playing. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four as home dogs. |
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12-10-21 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | 123-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves have said that D’Angelo Russell (ankle) probably won’t play in this game, which would mark his third straight absence. Losing one of their top scorers for a matchup with a team that has the third-best defensive rating in the league could have them facing an uphill battle. They will need more scoring from Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’ll likely spend of most of the game being defended by the stout duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I like the Cavaliers chances here. |
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12-10-21 | DePaul +7.5 v. Louisville | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Demons look really good. They are 7-1 ATS and their offense is on fire. They are averaging 85.3 PPG on 49.2 percent from the field. The Cardinals haven’t been good at home. They are just 1-3 ATS at home. I am low on Louisville this year, especially against good opponents. The Cardinals only defensive struggle is that they let up too many points in the paint. DePaul does a great job of getting points at the basket. The Blue Demons will keep this game close enough to cover. Take the points. |
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12-09-21 | Grand Canyon v. Arizona State -3.5 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At 3-6, Arizona State’s expectations are long gone for a salvageable season. On Thursday, the Sun Devils face a motivated Grand Canyon team that has two Arizona State transfers in Taeshon Cherry and Holland Woods. Look for ASU’s strength of schedule to pay dividends Thursday.. The Devils have faced heavyweight matchups in tournaments and have already played two Pac-12 games. Take ASU on the small line. |
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12-09-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State +5.5 | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iowa State was putrid last season but under first-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger, ISU brought in seven transfers and is one of a handful of unbeatens left in the nation. The Cyclones rank Top 15 nationally in turnover margin and steals per game. ISU is No. 21 in the NCAA's NET rankings and has three Quad 1-2 wins, one of eight teams with that many nationally. Iowa, meanwhile, has dropped two straight. Are the Hawkeyes the better team? Probably, but I'm absolutely taking this many points on a home team in a rivalry game. |
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12-09-21 | Merrimack +32.5 v. Gonzaga | 55-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gonzaga has not looked great in its past three games, losing two and beating Tarleton by just nine. Will the Zags lose here? Obviously not, but Merrimack is a solid NEC team with all five starters back from last season. Thus, this veteran bunch shouldn't be intimidated and can hang within 25-30. The Warriors also will play VERY slow to keep the possessions to a minimum. The Zags may be looking ahead a bit to spanking in-state Big Brother Washington on Sunday. |
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12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's -8 | 83-88 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. John’s will be in for a test Thursday against Monmouth. The Hawks are 7-1 overall and their only loss was by two points against Charlotte. Moreover, they start five seniors including former Big East Seton Hall guard Shavar Reynolds. Yet, St. John’s has a knack of speeding up teams. That does not bode well for Monmouth. Take the Red Storm. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tomlin is 0-5 ATS in his NFL career after upsetting a division rival when facing a non-division foe coming off a SUATS loss. Worse, a loss by Mike Zimmer, and his tenure with Minnesota could be over by season’s end. It’s what happens to coaches who have delivered 2 playoff wins in 8 seasons. Tonight, he’ll look to rely on his 25-7-1 ATS career record in non-division tilts when coming off a loss, including 11-1 ATS versus AFC opponents. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is also 4-0-1 ATS on Thursdays against non-division opposition coming off a win. Consider that teams who lose to a winless opponent during the second-half of the season are 5-1-1 ATS since 1980 at home in non-division contests the following game. |
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12-09-21 | Jazz -3 v. 76ers | 118-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams just played Wednesday, so rest days could be coming. The Jazz didn’t have to push their starters in a lopsided win over the Timberwolves, but the Sixers were forced to battle to the final minute against the Hornets. I think Mike Conley Jr. is the most notable potential rest candidate on the Jazz. On the Sixers, this could be a spot for them to sit Joel Embiid. He’s been healthy for two back-to-back sets this season and in one of them, he missed a game for rest. This line could move a lot if he’s ruled out, so I’ll grab it now and take a chance. |
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12-09-21 | Purdue -12 v. Rutgers | 68-70 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers are the number one team in the country and for good reason. They are 8-0 straight up and have the best offense in the country. The Scarlett Knights have been terrible this season. They are 1-7 ATS and struggling on both ends of the court. Rutgers’ Geo Baker is unlikely to play again in this one. The Scarlett Knights are coming off of a 35 point loss to Illinois. The Boilermakers are going to dominate the Scarlett Knights and cover this spread easily. Lay the points. |
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12-08-21 | Idaho State v. California -12 | 46-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm always pleased when the model decides to pick against an 0-7 ATS team. Idaho State has just looked terrible this year and I have them losing by 14.5. It would not be the least bit shocking to see this get to twenty points. I'd take almost any spread against them right now but it definitely helps that California is 6-2 ATS. The Bears can play cohesive basketball, which is all it takes to cover against the Bengals. Lay it. |
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12-08-21 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +7 | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans rarely play well at Minnesota -- must be that silly raised floor. Last year, they lost by 25 in Minneapolis. This is only MSU's second true road game of the season and in their first one they faced a very short-handed Butler team. I do believe the unbeaten Gophers are playing over their heads right now, but first-year coach Ben Johnson did a great job rebuilding on the fly by landing some great transfers -- Minnesota's top four scorers are are all transfers. This should be a defensive slugfest and I'd be more surprised if MSU covers than I would if the Gophers win outright. |
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12-08-21 | Arkansas State v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff +13 | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is simply one of those games where there's no doubt the visiting team will win but the home team is getting too many points by a handful. Arkansas State dating to last season is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. UAPB is just 1-9 SU but has played a brutal schedule with every game but one on the road. Last season Pine Bluff upset the Red Wolves in Jonesboro. |
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12-08-21 | Connecticut +2.5 v. West Virginia | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units nteresting to see UConn as the underdog in this matchup, my model has that as the wrong team favored... So I'll jump now with my projected number sitting closer to -1.5 for the Huskies. West Virginia has a tall task, and I would expect that if Connecticut doesn't win they will probably keep with within a bucket. |
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12-08-21 | Central Michigan v. Youngstown State -10.5 | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units For this matchup in Youngstown between the Penguins and the Central Michigan Chippewas my model has the 11 point spread as a bit too low. I'm projecting a 14 point win for Youngstown at home. CMU has looked terrible, going 2-6 ATS so far this season and Youngstown is coming off a good win against Green Bay which could indicate they're a bit underrated still. This is a solid team with a great mascot, go Penguins! |
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12-08-21 | Tennessee Tech v. Western Carolina +1.5 | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Western Carolina has won the past two in this series, including a 3-point buzzer-beater last season. The SportsLine Projection Model has WCU winning by 11. Various other ones don't have it nearly by that much but all by a minimum of three points. The Catamounts are among the national leaders with 112 made three-pointers. They have won every game they have led at the half this year and lost the ones they haven't led. Teams generally get off to good starts at home. Tennessee Tech has lost three straight and is 0-4 in true road games. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Lakers | 102-117 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  Everything points to the Celtics covering this line. First, they are 9-5 ATS on the road. Second, the Lakers are 4-11 ATS at home, including 3-9 ATS as home favorites. They only have four wins this season against teams with a winning record. The last time these teams met, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook all played, but the Celtics still won by 22 points in Boston. Jaylen Brown sat that game out for the Celtics and he’s questionable for the rematch, but regardless of his status I’ll take the points. |
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12-07-21 | UTEP +19 v. Kansas | 52-78 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jayhawks are not where they want to be yet and are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Their defense has been struggling recently, allowing an average of 77.3 points over the last three contests. The Miners have been overperforming this season. Their defense has looked elite, as they are allowing just 61.1 points per game. This spread is too high, considering how Kansas is playing right now. Take the points with the Miners. |
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12-07-21 | Massachusetts v. Northeastern | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Northeastern is 3-0 in true home games this season, while UMass has played just one true road game and lost in blowout fashion at Yale. UMass has rallied back from down double digits to win in four games this season but that it was down double digits is obviously concerning. The Minutemen are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Since the 2014-15 season, the Huskies are 22-4 in non-conference home games. Led by transfer Chris Doherty, Northeastern has outrebounded its opponent in six of its nine games this season, including four of the last five. The Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -4.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toledo might be the MAC's best team and its only two losses were at good teams Oakland and Michigan State. Sophomore Ryan Rollins leads Toledo and ranks 26th nationally with a MAC-best 20.1 ppg. The Rockets are outrebounding their opposition by 7.9 rpg this season, which ranks ranks 33rd in the nation. Bradley has won three in a row but all were home and against pretty mediocre-to-bad competition. The Braves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. I probably wouldn't go any higher than this spread. |
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12-07-21 | Old Dominion -7 v. William & Mary | 74-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fade on the Tribe, who are 0-8 SU and ATS in their eight games against Division I teams. Kenpom ranks William & Mary as the 321st team in the country. The Monarchs are expected to be getting back two of their best players, Charles Smith and Jason Wade, from injury. They have been playing really well even without the duo. Old Dominion is the much better team in this matchup. With the addition of Smith and Wade, the Monarchs easily should cover this spread. |
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12-06-21 | Clippers -3 v. Blazers | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers are in trouble. The good news is that C.J. McCollum (ribs) is listed as probable. The bad news is that Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Anfernee Simons (ankle) will be out again, while Nassir Little (ankle) is listed as questionable. With those three out the last two games, the Blazers lost both contests by at least 28 points. Another blowout could be coming. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Suddenly, the Patriots’ 2-4 start to the season seems like a distant memory as they ride a 6-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. New England is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when on a six-game-exact win skein since 2007. NFL teams on a 6-0 SUATS-exact win skein are 6-1 SUATS in division games when coming off an ATS win of 14 or more points. That’ a lot for Sean McDermott to digest given the fact that Buffalo is 3-31 SU and 12-21-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2001, including 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS home. After its 4-1 SUATS start, Buffalo enters tonight’s game just 3-3 SUATS in its past six contests. With Belichick riding a 9-1 ATS mark in his last ten games as a division road against foes coming off a win, we can’t fade that. |
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12-06-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Bucks | 104-112 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers covered as underdogs, yet again, Sunday in a one-point loss to the Jazz. They are now 15-6-1 ATS as underdogs this season. The fact that the Bucks are favored by this much, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) listed as questionable, is surprising. Even if he plays, I think the Cavaliers can cover this line. |
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12-06-21 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers come into this game ice cold, losers of four straight. Three of those losses came at home. Their depth chart is limited right now, with both T.J. McConnell (wrist) and Justin Holiday (COVID-19) out, which isn’t helping matters. They have not operated well as favorites this season, posting a 5-9 record ATS in such situations. Despite the expectation that Spencer Dinwiddie sits this game out for the Wizards, who also just played Sunday, look for Washington to keep things close. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model makes Iowa a six-point favorite Monday and it might end up finishing at an even wider margin. Illinois has struggled on the road, owning an 0-3 ATS record, and now the Illini head to Iowa for a Big 10 battle. Iowa has been playing well and will be looking to cover its fifth straight. Lay the points. |
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12-06-21 | Texas Southern +24 v. Florida | 69-54 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas Southern is 0-7 but that's very misleading as the Tigers have played a very tough schedule and not a single home game yet. They have been competitive in nearly every game as witnessed by their 5-2 ATS mark. TSU won the SWAC last season and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament and is favored to win the SWAC again with four starters back. I don't think UF even wins by 20, much less 25 to lose this bet. |
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12-05-21 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Mike Tomlin is 20-7 SU and 17-8-2 ATS in his NFL career after allowing more than 30 points in a contest, including 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS at home. As a result of Sunday’s 41-10 pummeling, Pittsburgh now resides in last place in the AFC North. There is nothing better than a red-faced angry dog who embarrassed us as a 5* Best Bet last week, especially at home in division games. With that being said, Big Ben is 8-4 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home dog in this league. However, to seal the deal consider that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS as a division dog against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher: Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins. In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher: Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996. |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State +6 v. San Diego State | 46-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit 3* MWC Championship Whack New Utah State head coach Blake Anderson made quite the splash in his first season with the Aggies when he took over a one-win team and led them to the MWC championship game. With four SU underdog wins this season, this nineteen returning-starter dog checks all the canine boxes today, including the one where underdogs have bagged the cash 6 of seven times in this conference title game. Sure, Diego has a tough-as-nails defense (313 YPG) that ranks No. 13 in the nation, but the sloth-like offense ranks No. 110, failing to score 20 or more points in each of their last seven contests. And while the sun worshippers are 11-1 on the season, they’re only 5-7 ITS, which means the majority of their wins have been fortuitous. With the pressure squarely on the Aztecs to capture a record-setting victory, the points become the play here today. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units his spread opened at Clippers -2 but is now Lakers -1.5 because LeBron James cleared COVID protocols already and will play. I usually wait until as late as possible before picking NBA games these days to see who might be ruled out last minute -- that strategy saved me on the Bucks on Thursday when Giannis was a last-minute scratch -- but I won't be around that late tonight so we will just have to assume that LeBron and Anthony Davis (questionable but always on the injury report) do play. The Clippers enter on a three-game skid. |
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12-03-21 | VMI v. Portland -3 | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The SportsLine Projection Model has the Pilots winning by exactly three, but ESPN's BPI and a few others have it closer to 7. Portland's 7-2 record matches the best nine-game start to a season in the last 10 years. Shantay Legans has the best nine-game start among all Portland head coaches since the Pilots joined NCAA Division I in 1958. Legans brought in a ton of transfers and three especially have been thriving: Former Eastern Washington (where Legans was hired from) players Tyler Robertson (16.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Mike Meadows (10.6 ppg, has a triple-double), and ex-UNLV big man Moses Wood (15.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg). VMI is winless on the road and obviously had to make the long trip across country. The Keydets haven't covered yet this year. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Pounding Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is in a tough spot here, going 1-5 SUATS the last six games as a dog of 6 or fewer points when seeking revenge. And with late season coach-poaching currently in high gear (Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly to LSU, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC), who knows if Cristobal will be lured away by the promise of a bigger payday before this game |
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12-03-21 | Heat v. Pacers -5 | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat are running out of healthy players. Bam Adebayo, (thumb), Jimmy Butler (back) and Markieff Morris (neck) are all expected to sit out. With them out Monday, the Heat loss by 26 points to the Cavaliers. They have little size up front to battle with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, so the Pacers have the chance to earn a decisive victory. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -3 v. UTSA | 41-49 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Conference USA title game from San Antonio. This spread has been bobbing up and down between 2.5-3 all day, so let's grab 2.5 now in case it stays at 3. WKU lost a shootout at home to UTSA earlier this season and this one is on the Roadrunners' field, but the Hilltoppers have been dominating every opponent since then. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26.4. Bailey Zappe is having one of the best seasons ever by an FBS quarterback. UTSA, meanwhile, has looked sluggish in its past three games (0-3 ATS) and did lose its finale. Maybe the Roadrunners were simply coasting, but I'll take the hot team. |
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12-03-21 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +4.5 | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fade on the Irish as they 1-5 ATS and have lost three of their past four SU. The Eagles have been overperforming so far, and their defense has been outstanding in only allowing 60.1 PPG. Notre Dame should struggle again and BC will cover. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | 92-110 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are pretty bad but there's talk that the Blazers will give Damian Lillard tonight off in the second of a back-to-back -- plus, Norman Powell missed Monday's loss to Utah and is in doubt, so I think Detroit can stay within this number if both are true. We'll have to take the chance now, though, because the spread will drop if Lillard becomes official. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their past five. |
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11-30-21 | South Dakota v. San Jose State -2 | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This pretty much comes down to where this game is being played -- San Jose State is unbeaten at home with wins over Cal State Fullerton and Northern Colorado, while South Dakota is 0-2 in true road games with double-digit losses at Drake and Nebraska. San Jose State has been boosted by five Power 5 transfers, topped by Ohio State's Ibrahima Diallo. The Coyotes are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. |
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11-30-21 | Duke v. Ohio State +2.5 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a contrarian play, as there's going to be a good number of bettors rushing to take the team that just beat Gonzaga. However, we just saw Gonzaga struggle against Tarleton on Monday and, if you remember the game between Duke and the Zags, there was a good amount of foul trouble for Gonzaga. Just something to consider. Bottom line, this is a decent letdown spot for Duke coming off a big win. Grab the points with Ohio State at home. |
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11-30-21 | Hawaii +12 v. Santa Clara | 58-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have looked terrible in their last two games, losing both as favorites. They have scored a total of just 116 points in those two games. The Rainbow Warriors have looked good, going 3-2 but not losing a game by more than three points. Their offense has been really good as they are averaging 81 PPG. This spread is too high, as the Hawaii offense will score enough points to cover. |
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11-30-21 | Northwestern +2 v. Wake Forest | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The model has the wrong team favored and thinks the Wildcats edge this one out by a point. Wake Forest looks to have the money on its side but this line still came down from +2 overnight. Both teams have played a bit of a weak schedule to open the year. Wake has failed to cover against both LSU and Oregon St in its last two games and Northwestern should pose a similar challenge. |
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11-30-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona shocked the Jets in Winnipeg on Monday as a massive underdog; can the Yotes do it again Tuesday in the Twin Cities? Obviously doubtful, but getting Arizona on the puckline at +120 I can't turn down. The Wild are without their best offensive player in Mats Zuccarello and are starting backup goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen, who has been very shaky in two or four starts this year. |
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11-30-21 | Texas State v. Rice -2 | 80-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rice comes off a solid third-place finish at a holiday tournament in Florida and is 2-0 in true home games. Owls guard Travis Evee leads the team and is eighth in Conference USA with 16.1 points per game. He is second in C-USA with 3.3 three-pointers per game, is third in three-point field goal percentage (43.4%) and sixth in field goal percentage (50.0%). The Owls lead C-USA in three-point shooting. Rice is 6-0 ATS in its past six games as a home favorite. The SportsLine Projection Model has Rice winning by six. |
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11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue -10.5 | 65-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue's offense is unstoppable. It is averaging 92.3 PPG, and the Boilermakers have shot at least 50 percent from the field in all six of their games so far this season. The Seminoles have been bit by the injury bug, as they are missing three players in their rotation, including two starters. Florida State went to overtime with Boston University and only had four players record over 20 minutes. The Seminoles are very thin right now, and the Boilermakers should blow them out and easily cover. Lay the points. |
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11-30-21 | Chattanooga -5 v. Tennessee Tech | 82-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  I believe this spread is only going to rise -- the SportsLine Projection Model has the Mocs winning in a rout. The schools played on Nov. 16 in Chattanooga and the home team won by seven. Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa has been great in the early going for the Mocs, averaging 12.0 points and 6.5 rebounds. Chattanooga was picked No. 1 in the 2021-22 SoCon Preseason Coaches and Media Polls, while Tennessee Tech was picked to finish 8th in the Ohio Valley Conference Preseason Poll. |
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11-30-21 | Minnesota -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 54-53 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
rating: 2 Units  I am a bit surprised to see Minnesota favored by just a few points Tuesday. The Gophers are undefeated and hold a 4-1 record against the spread so far this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 2-4 and have only covered once in their five home games. Pittsburgh was just beaten outright by UMBC. A 10-point loss when you're a 5.5-point favorite does not instill confidence. The model has this one as a five-point game, so we're getting a good 2.5 points of edge. Lay it. |
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11-30-21 | Elon v. NC-Greensboro -3.5 | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Elon is 0-5 against NCAA Division I competition this season with the Phoenix's two wins against something called Randolph College as well as Bluefield College. I think the latter one was from the movie Animal House. UNCG is unbeaten at home and allowing just 53.2 points per game there. The Spartans are ranked fifth nationally in rebounding margin (15.7), 11th in rebounds per game (45.4) and 24th in defensive rebounds per game (30.3). They will have a huge edge there. At -6.5, I didn't like this but at -4 it's worth a shot. The SportsLine Projection Model has UNCG winning easily. |
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11-30-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +35 v. Connecticut | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OK, this spread has climbed to the point where I have to take that huge number on the Hawks. The MEAC program is 2-4 straight up but 5-0 against the spread. It upset a good Fordham team. UConn may not have much interest in the beginning coming off tough holiday tournament games vs. Auburn, Michigan State and VCU. CBS Sports Network has this telecast. |
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11-29-21 | Wyoming -4.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 79-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  The Cowboys have looked amazing on both ends of the court. They are averaging 84.6 points while allowing 56.8 per game. They have had an easy schedule but they have thrived so far. The Titans have struggled defensively even against a weak schedule. KenPom ranks them as the 258th best defensive team. The Cowboys' offense will have another great game. |
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11-29-21 | Montana +13 v. Oregon | 47-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon really has to prove it can cover a spread, so I'll take the points with Montana. The Grizzlies had a bit of trouble to open the season but have covered in three straight games. Oregon has had difficulty all season as the Ducks are 1-5 against the spread, only covering against SMU, which is 1-7 ATS. Not a big vote of confidence there for Oregon. Montana can stand up to a team like this, 13 is likely too many points. Grab the underdog and challenge Oregon to show us it is decent enough to get this done. I don't think the Ducks are. |
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11-29-21 | Blazers v. Jazz -7.5 | 107-129 | Win | 102 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers have been a disaster on the road, posting a 1-9 record ATS. Things won’t be any easier for them Monday with Norman Powell (quadriceps) out. He’s averaging 16.9 points and Portland doesn’t have many viable scoring options behind him on the bench. The Jazz, who blew out the Pelicans by 22 points at home Saturday, could be lined up for another lopsided win. |
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11-29-21 | Texas-Arlington v. UC-Santa Barbara -12 | 70-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is mostly a fade of UT Arlington. The Mavericks are 1-5 this season, won their only game against a non-DI school, and have covered just once. We just saw Utah State win handedly on a similar -15.5 line vs. UT Arlington, and UCSB has covered as the home favorite two of two times this year. This is definitely a bit of a mismatch, and USCB should be able to get it done on both ends of the floor. |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame +4.5 v. Illinois | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  At full strength, I think Illinois would spank Notre Dame. However, the Illini are expected to be without Andre Curbelo (undisclosed), Trent Frazier (leg), Jacob Grandison (illness) and Benjamin Verdonk (flu) tonight in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup. The Irish have been hugely bolstered by graduate transfer Paul Atkinson Jr., the 2019-20 Ivy League Player of the Year who transferred to Notre Dame during the offseason. Wish I had gotten this at +6.5 but clearly oddsmakers are starting to adjust. |
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11-29-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Mavs | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers welcomed back star rookie Evan Mobley from an elbow injury during their 105-92 demolition of the Magic on Saturday. They also have Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love back from their bouts with COVID-19, adding significant depth. They have played tough, going 11-6-1 ATS as underdogs. The Mavericks are only 3-5 ATS at home and don’t have the size up front to battle with Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Look for the Cavaliers to keep this game close. |
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11-29-21 | Tulsa +2 v. Oral Roberts | 80-87 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oral Roberts was one of the darlings of the 2021 NCAA Tournament but the Golden Eagles haven't really carried that over yet with a 3-3 record and those wins over all non-Division I schools. KenPom ranks Tulsa as the No. 142 team nationally and Oral Roberts 177. Sagarin has Tulsa as two points better and the SportsLine Projection Model six better. This is for the Mayor's Cup -- Oral Roberts is in Tulsa if you didn't know. |
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11-29-21 | Cornell +3 v. Canisius | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  I think the wrong team could be favored in this one. Cornell is 5-1, including three outright wins as an underdog against Binghamton, Lafayette and Colgate. The Big Red then covered in a loss to Penn State as a dog and against St Francis (PA) as a favorite in a victory. They've yet to lose ATS and face a Canisius team that has had its struggles. The Golden Griffins recently were 10-point favorites over Coppin and only won by a point. I think this is going to be a close battle between upstate New York teams. I'll take the points on the team that's covered every game. |
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11-28-21 | Villanova -17 v. La Salle | 72-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are 3-2 but their losses have come against two of the nation's top five teams. They beat the 17th-ranked Volunteers by 18 points in Tennessee. They have had a full week of rest. The Explorers have looked incompetent at times in their first four games. They have played against very weak competition and are just 2-2. Their terrible defense won’t be able to handle the Wildcats' offense. |
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11-28-21 | Bucks -2.5 v. Pacers | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have reeled off six straight wins, which coincides with Khris Middleton’s return from a bout with COVID-19. They are 9-3 with him in the lineup this season, compared to 3-5 without him. He played when these two teams met earlier this season, which was a 10-point win for the Bucks in Indiana. I like them to cover in their rematch, as well. |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006 |
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11-28-21 | Wofford +1.5 v. Georgia | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  This pick is a fade of Georgia. The Bulldogs are averaging 66 points per game against a weak schedule. The Terriers are averaging 84 points on 48.9 percent shooting from the field. Their offense should stay hot today. |
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11-28-21 | Warriors -2 v. Clippers | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are a stellar 11-1 at home, but don’t sleep on them on the road, either. They are 6-1 away from home, including 5-2 ATS. They have been the most dominant team in the league, recording a plus-13.6 point differential. Getting Marcus Morris back is big for the Clippers, but Nicolas Batum (COVID-19) being out is noteworthy. I’ll lay the small amount of points here and look for the Warriors to stay hot. |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog. |
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11-28-21 | North Texas v. Drake -4 | 57-54 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake has lost two tough games in Florida, to Belmont and Alabama. I still think the Bulldogs will cover versus a North Texas team that's shooting 42 percent overall and 31.9 percent from deep. The Bulldogs are much better offensively and that will be the difference here. |
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11-27-21 | California +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. |
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11-27-21 | Weber State v. Dixie State +12.5 | 87-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units My model makes this game an 8.5-point spread, so you're getting a nice edge here with Dixie State. This is a battle between Utah schools, and even though Dixie has gone 1-4, this line is still too big. Grab the points, and expect this rivalry matchup to stay within double digits. |
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11-27-21 | Hornets -5 v. Rockets | 143-146 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A team that is quietly surging is Charlotte. The Hornets have won eight of their last nine games, including a 133-115 win last night against Minnesota. The 133 points was team's season-high. On Saturday they face the worst team in the NBA in the Rockets. Back the Hornets to continue their winning ways. |
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11-27-21 | Heat v. Bulls +1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Bulls are coming off a solid bounce-back win on Friday against Orlando. They now travel back home to host a Miami team that has not played since Wednesday. I expect the Bulls' recent experience of losing the second game of a back-to-back scenario (they lost to the Pacers on Monday, 109-77) to motivate them to a hot start on Saturday. Take Chicago to hold off the Heat. |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980 |
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