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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-19 | Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, and we expect both offenses to be sluggish and think there will probably be some sloppy basketball in this one with two fatigued teams. Five of the last eight meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. The under is also 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-backs for the Pacers. The Pacers are the No. 1 defense in the NBA for points allowed and we think they can keep the Hornets down to a real low score but we think there is a very good chance both offenses struggle in this one. |
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01-19-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Minnesota over Penn State (8:30p.m., Saturday, January 19 BTN) We will lay the small change tonight with Minnesota looking to move to 4-3 in Big 10 play. Penn State has yet to win a game this season in conference play and that will continue tonight at the Barn. Most of Minnesota’s conference games tend to be blowouts one way or the other and thus since we think they will win, they will also be able to cover this spread. The Gophers are coming off an embarrassing performance last time out against Illinois, but Penn State will not be able to pressure them like Illinois did. Penn State is coming off two straight home losses and their coach is likely to be replaced come March. Penn State is not only losing games they have not been covering the spread as well going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at the Barn. The favorite has covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings. |
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01-19-19 | Suns +7 v. Hornets | Top | 115-135 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
We think the Hornets are way overrated coming into this game. This team has low morale after a bad road trip. The Suns played very well last time out and gave Toronto all they could handle. Phoenix did very well ATS a few weeks ago as they had a nice streak and with Booker back they could have value against the betting line. This looks like too many points tonight. |
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01-18-19 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -10.5 | Top | 116-122 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
One of the safest bets in the NBA lately has been to bet against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have covered only once in the last 11 games. And things will probably get worse before they get better. The trade deadline is coming up, and Gasol and even Conley might be on their way out of town. It’s time for this team to do the total rebuild that they have been putting off for years and everyone knows it. And this team is just not playing with any fire lately. They have lost two straight by double digits, and we see that as the likely result again tonight. Boston hasn’t been as stable as we like this season but they are streaky and this might be the start of another hot streak coming off the big win vs. Toronto last time out. Boston has covered seven straight at home, and when this team wins it normally covers, so we think this is a very solid bet tonight. |
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01-17-19 | Oregon v. Arizona -4.5 | Top | 59-54 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #644 Arizona Wildcats over Oregon Ducks (9p.m., Thursday, January 17 ESPN) Arizona is going to win the PAC-12 this year! Despite a poor showing in the nonconference portion of the season they are putting things together and will enter this game with a perfect 4-0 record in conference play. Oregon is not the same team without Bol Bol and they will struggle to a .500 team in conference play. Arizona has won 6 straight games and are righting the ship. Oregon is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 PAC-12 games. |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -2 | Top | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
The Hornets are coming off a long road trip where things didn’t go that well, as expected as this team is just not good away from home. But this squad has been pretty good at home and they are 14-8 here this season. We think revenge is a way overrated NBA handicapping angle, but we do think that it comes into play when teams have recently met, and the Kings won in Sacramento when these teams played just five days ago. It was a pretty close game despite the Hornets shooting poorly in the second half. We expect a much better effort here at home. Like the Hornets are undervalued due to a recent poor road trip, the Kings are overvalued here since they have had some success at home lately. But we think this line is too short tonight. |
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01-16-19 | Magic +4 v. Pistons | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Orlando actually has one more win than Detroit on the season, and we think this is a very public line. This is the first game back home after a long West Coast road trip for Detroit, and the first game back home can often be tricky since the players’ minds may be focused more on personal matters. Orlando is confident here, coming off home wins against Houston and Boston. They have also covered in seven of the last eight matchups in this series! |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 142-111 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
We think that the wrong team is absolutely favored here. Denver has a very good team this season and they are a real threat for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. This is an up-and-coming team and they actually care about the regular season, while the Warriors just want to be healthy and in a good state of mind once April rolls around. This game is important for a potential tiebreaker down the line and we think the Nuggets are much more serious about this matchup than is Golden State. Denver has a strong recent history in this series as they have won the last two meetings straight up. The Warriors haven’t covered in four straight meetings (one push) and they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. We like Denver for a big time win here. |
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01-13-19 | Warriors v. Mavs +6.5 | Top | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Dallas is one of the best home teams in the league at 16-4 on the season, and the Warriors have been just a little better than mediocre on the road at 11-8. We had Golden State listed as a slight favorite here but we think this line is inflated. Dallas is 6-2 ATS at home this season against above-.500 clubs, and they should give their best effort tonight against the defending champs. Dallas is one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, and we trust them again tonight. |
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01-12-19 | Kansas -3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #689 Kansas over Baylor (4p.m., Saturday, January 12 ESPN) Kansas lost their last road game but losing is something they just do not do that often in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks lost Udoka Azubuike and thus I believe the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in both of there games this week. They controlled the game with TCU from the start and I expect them to be ahead most of this game as well. Kansas is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Baylor. The road team is 20-7 ATS (1 push) in the last 28 meetings. Baylor already lost to SFA at home this year and they are not as strong as they have been in year’s past. Kansas gets back on track today in Waco. |
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01-11-19 | Nets +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Not a lot of people realize it, but if the season ended right now the Nets would be in the postseason. That’s not a major accomplishment in the East and they are just 21-22, but the perception of the public is that this is a lottery team, but the truth is that they are playing some decent basketball. This team has covered in four of their last five games, and they have won straight up in all those covers. The Raptors have won three straight, but this team is not in the same fine form they were when they set the NBA ablaze early in the season. They have covered just 3 of their last 13 games overall, a clear sign that their play on the court is not matching the oddsmaker expectations. This team has had lots of trouble covering big lines this season as they are 4-11 ATS when laying nine or more points this season. They are 4-7 ATS at home against Sub-.500 clubs. Brooklyn has also covered in three of the last four meetings, two of which went to overtime (the Nets won the last meetings between these clubs, in December). |
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01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
We have been making a lot of money with the Clippers lately, but we think it’s time to go the other way tonight. Denver is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 16-3 while the Clippers are mediocre on the road at 10-10. LA has won three straight, but those all came against flawed opponents. They take a hefty step up in competition tonight. Denver has won six of their last seven, and they are in fine form right now. This team is 13-6 ATS at home this season, so when they win they normally cover the line as well. They are also 8-2 ATS at home against teams above .500, so they get up when the best of the best competition comes to Denver. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, and they have revenge for a beatdown in LA last month that was a bad spot for them. They should get their revenge tonight in what we see as a comfortable 7+-point win. |
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01-09-19 | Pacers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 108-135 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Despite the records, the Pacers are on the second tier of Eastern Conference contenders while the Celtics are the top tier. Boston just got off to a slow start this season while the Pacers have overachieved. But Boston is rounding into playoff form right now, and they are clearly the stronger team in this matchup. They have won and covered in three straight games. Once this team gets rolling they can cover a lot as they have been one of the best betting teams the last couple years. This team has now covered in 17 straight games where they have won, so when they win the spread normally doesn’t even come into play. The Pacers have actually won the last three meetings in this series, so we think the Celtics will give max effort here at home. This is the first meeting in Boston this season. |
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01-08-19 | Hornets v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Charlotte is a really bad road team at 5-12 this season. They face a Clippers team tonight that has been playing well and will continue to provide betting value all season long because of the lack of big names on the roster. Preseason perception of this team was that this squad was a lottery team, and many think they will still fall short of the postseason, but we think, barring major injuries, that this will be a solid playoff team. They play unselfish basketball and the depth is great. They are the No. 3 earner in the NBA for betting, and we like this number again tonight on the south side of the NBA key betting number of 7. Both teams were off yesterday but the Hornets played the second of a back-to-back on Sunday, so this will be their third game in four nights, and this team is in the midst of a long road trip that can possibly sink their season unless they start to play better on the road. The Clippers have covered in seven of their last nine overall, and we think they are undervalued again here on Tuesday. |
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01-07-19 | Nets v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Boston has scored double-digit wins in their last two games, and we think they make it three straight tonight. Brooklyn has won three straight, but one of those wins was against the Bulls, and that was yesterday, which means they are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights tonight. This team hasn’t been good with no rest at 2-7 ATS. Boston has had two nights off heading into this game, and rest is becoming very crucial at this point of the season. The Celts should have Irving and Morris back tonight. We expect a strong performance. |
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01-06-19 | Hornets v. Suns +2 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Love the Suns in this spot. Phoenix has one more win at home than the Hornets do on the road! We think the wrong team is favored here. Charlotte is terrible on the road. They are coming in on a back-to-back after playing in the high altitude of Denver last night, and that is always tough as it takes a toll on the bodies of these players. The Suns have lost five straight, but they have played five strong playoff teams, and they have had one of the toughest schedules in the NBA lately. This is their most winnable game recently, and we think they put their best foot forward. This team is actually 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games and this young team is quietly playing a lot better and has a bright future ahead if these players continue to develop. |
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01-05-19 | St. John's -1.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #617 St Johns over Georgetown (1p.m., Saturday, January 5 CBS) The Red Storm are for real and they continue to be undervalued by the odds makers. Both teams have played an easy schedule thus far in nonconference play. I just feel St Johns is farther along in year 4 of Chris Mullen compared to year 2 of Patrick Ewing. St Johns is still made from the officiating they received in New Jersey last Saturday and expect a similar performance to what we saw from them against Marquette during the week. St. Johns is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Big East games. Georgetown is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Big East games. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. |
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01-04-19 | Wizards v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Miami has been a covering machine lately as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games. We think they are undervalued here again tonight. Miami is the kind of team that can hold betting value all year long because of their lack of star power, and we think there’s a good chance for a double-digit win tonight. Washington has covered only one of five meetings in this series. Of course, they are without John Wall, their best player, who has been lost for the season. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points this season, meaning they have failed every chance in a situation like they are in tonight. They are only 4-16 on the road this season, and that was with Wall leading the way most of the season. This team just doesn’t have any identity this season, and we don’t expect them to show up in this one tonight. |
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01-03-19 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 135-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We just think that this is too many points. The Warriors are playing well, but when that happens the numbers get too high and this team has been one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple seasons because of that fact. They are 16-22 ATS on the season, and they have covered only two of their last seven. Houston is the hotter team right now. They have won 10 of 11 and are playing well without Chris Paul. We expect them to put their best foot forward tonight in what should be a very competitive game. |
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01-02-19 | 76ers v. Suns +5 | Top | 132-127 | Push | 0 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
The Suns got smoked last time out against the Warriors, but this team has been playing hard lately and their young nucleus is starting to come together. They have covered in eight of their last 10 games, so they are playing above oddsmakers expectations. Philly comes in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights, and they go home after this game, so this may be a letdown spot for them. This team has not been very good on the road this season, where they are 7-12 ATS on the season. |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's +1 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #606 St Johns over Marquette (7p.m., Tuesday, January 1 FS1) This game can go 1 of 2 ways for the Red Storm. They entered last Saturday undefeated and dominated for most of the game against Seton Hall. Missed some free throws and got hosed by the refs and they ended up losing at the buzzer but still covered the spread. Now this must regroup and make sure the conference season does not go down the drain. I think they will since they have the best player and Marquette has done most of their damage at home. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. St. Johns is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Marquette. This is a game the Red Storm need to save their season and they get it by 6-8 points. |
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12-30-18 | 76ers +1 v. Blazers | Top | 95-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The Sixers have been bad on the road this season, but they are getting better as they played well in their last two road games in Utah and Boston, winning against the Jazz and falling to the Celtics in OT. The main reason we like this play is because the Sixers are well rested. They have had two days off coming into this one. The Blazers are on a back-to-back, and they will be playing their third game in four nights, with both of the previous games coming against the Warriors. Those were very important games for the Blazers, and now they face a rested out-of-conference foe. We just don’t see them giving that maximum effort that would be required in a game like this. Philly has covered in five of the last six meetings. |
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12-29-18 | Spurs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
The Clippers are definitely out of their slump, and they have won four of five and covered in five straight. Both teams are playing in a back-to-back here and both are on their third game in four nights. But the Clippers have been home the whole time (last night they were the “road” team against the Lakers but in their own arena). The Spurs had to play in the high altitude in Denver, and that can really wear a team down. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping angle, but we do think the Clippers remember their absolute beatdown at the hands of the Spurs in San Antonio a couple weeks ago. We think this will be a perfect spot to get some payback tonight. |
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12-29-18 | St. John's +3.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #649 St Johns over Seton Hall (8:30p.m., Saturday, December 29 FSN) Top College Basketball Play of the Day We are not going into this game blindly. St Johns is undefeated, but they are not ranked and have not played a very good nonconference schedule. That being said they are much more talented than the Pirates who lost 4 straights off of last year’s team that reached the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Storm have the best player on the floor and I expect them to win this game straight-up in a game that goes down to the wire. The Pirates claim to fame is beating Kentucky, but the Wildcats have had an up and down season thus far. The Underdog has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. St Johns is an NCAA Tournament team and they will start off Big East play with a road win to keep their undefeated streak in-tact. |
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12-29-18 | Nets v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
We expect a big game from the Bucks, who were off on Friday, while the Nets played the second game of a grueling home-and-home with Charlotte, the first of which went to OT. So they are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. We don’t see things going well for them. The Bucks are 23-8-1 ATS in this series, so they always seem to get up for this matchup. The early start time goes against the Nets here as well as the back-to-back. This looks like it could be a massive blowout as the Nets should be running on fumes here. |
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12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Brooklyn has the better record but we think the Hornets are the better team. Like many lousy teams, the Hornets are much better at home (12-7) than they are on the road (4-10). These teams played last time out in Brooklyn and the Hornets played well enough to win in a OT loss. We think revenge is way overrated in the NBA as a handicapping angle but it does come into play when the teams met recently, and that is certainly the case here. We think the Hornets will get a comfortable win here at home. |
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12-27-18 | Celtics -127 v. Rockets | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Boston has covered in four straight meetings and in six of the last seven. We like them to win this one tonight. The Celtics had a long winning streak busted with a three-game losing streak, but since they have played very well and won and covered in two straight. When this team gets rolling they can keep it going for a long time, and we think they have the edge here. Houston is not a deep ballclub. Chris Paul is out. James Harden was on the injury report with a calf injury but has been upgraded to probable. We think they will need a “Superman” effort from Harden tonight in order to win this game, and with him injured that is very unlikely. Many of the good teams in the NBA are bad on the road, but the Celtics play well away from home and they have a winning record in road games this season. This is the best coached team in the NBA and they have been one of the most reliable bets in the league for the last couple years. |
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12-26-18 | Suns +5 v. Magic | Top | 122-120 | Win | 101 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Suns have now covered six straight games and this team is playing their best basketball of the season. They have won four out of their last six games, and they could have won another but fell at Washington in OT. On a back-to-back the next night they played their only lousy game recently, but that was to be expected after that barnburner of a game that was multiple overtimes in the nation’s capital. This team is completely healthy right now and they are really coming together as a team. Rookie Ayton is starting to show why he was the No. 1 pick in the draft, and Booker is a star. Orlando is 3-5 ATS this season as a favorite and this is tied with the biggest number they have laid all season. Just don’t think this team is good enough to be giving up a number like this, especially against a surging team like the Suns. Phoenix has covered in all of the last five meetings in Orlando. |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Boston has a strong history in this series and they are the better ballclub. And the number is right here for a big win on Christmas. The Sixers haven’t covered a line in their last four trips to Boston and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings. Philly is great at home but they have struggled on the road, and they have very few quality wins away from home. They lost to Boston on the road in the season opener by almost 20 points. They were blown out in Milwaukee. Toronto (twice). San Antonio. Those were their toughest road games, and they lost by double digits in each. We think they have a very good chance to lose here by double digits. Boston has been a bit streaky and they followed up a long winning streak by losing three straight. But they got back on track last time out in a 16-point home win vs. Charlotte and they led that game by as many as 33 before taking their foot off the gas. They shot 50 percent from the field, and we think that hot shooting will carry over here. Philly has won two straight, but they were both at home. They are just 6-9 on the road, however, and they have covered just 5 of 15 away from home this season. Boston has been one of the best and most stable betting teams the last couple years, and we think they have a great chance to win this one by 10+ on Tuesday. |
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12-23-18 | Clippers +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
When the Clippers had Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Warriors seemed to take pleasure in running up the score on the Clippers. They liked to get into these guys heads, and it always worked. But this is a different Clippers team and they are mentally tougher than previous editions. They also play better team basketball, and the team has great depth. The Clips already won the first meeting between these teams, at home in overtime. LA is coming off one of their best games of the season yesterday in their win over Denver. That was an early game so eliminated some of the brunt of the back-to-back here. We see this being a competitive game. |
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12-21-18 | Jazz v. Blazers UNDER 214 | Top | 120-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Utah has a better record on the road than at home, for whatever reason, and we think this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They have gone under in four straight and six of seven, and when this team starts playing defense they are a force to be reckoned with. Once this team gets it’s act together, and the defense is part of that, they are a much better team than the Blazers, and we think they will show it tonight with another outstanding defensive effort. And the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, and we think that’s where this one is headed as well. |
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12-20-18 | Mavs v. Clippers -3 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Neither of these teams is in top form right now after both started off the season defying expectations to become two of the best ATS teams in the NBA. But this looks like a great spot for the Clippers to get back on the winning track. They played well enough to win in their last two matchups vs. Portland and at OKC, but the opponent played a bit better. They have had two days off to focus here. The Mavs have been horrible on the road at 2-10 on the season, and they are in the midst of one of the toughest road trips any NBA team will see this season. They had been one of the best bets in the NBA but have lost their last three ATS as of this writing. The Clippers have had more time to regroup, and they have been able to do it at home, while the Nuggets have only one day off and should be road weary. We expect the number to be right here and we think this is a great spot for the home team to get a comfortable win. |
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12-18-18 | Wizards -4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
The Wizards haven’t been very good on the road, where they have won only four games all season. But the Hawks have been just as bad at home, where they have won only four. One of those road wins was less than two weeks ago in Atlanta against these same Hawks. That was a 14-point win but only because the Wizards took their foot off the gas when up by as much as 25 at one point. The Wizards went on to lose four straight after that, but this team looks like it might be on the way back up after one of the best wins of the season last time out in an 18-point home win over the Lakers. This Wizards team has not had enough success this season to overlook a team like the Hawks, and the talent discrepancy between these two clubs is large. We see the Wizards getting another comfortable win here in a game that sure looks like a mismatch. |
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12-17-18 | Blazers v. Clippers -2 | Top | 131-127 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Clippers haven’t been playing well, having dropped five of their last six, and this team has lost the confidence of bettors. But we think this is a great spot for them to get back on track tonight. This team has played seven of the last nine on the road, and overall their strength of schedule has been very tough. But this team is still 9-3 SU at home and 8-4 ATS. We have bet against the Clippers in their last two games, and they failed to cover both. But they barely missed the cover last time out at OKC, and we liked what we saw from them down the stretch in that tough matchup. But we think they can continue that momentum here at home against a Portland team that is lousy on the road. They are 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS on the season in road contests. Damian Lillard also missed practice yesterday and is attending to a personal matter to which we are not sure of the nature, but he might not have his head in the game 100%, and we think the Clippers will be very focused to get a win here and put an end to their current losing streak. |
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12-16-18 | Kings v. Mavs -5.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
These are two of the best ATS teams in the league facing off in Dallas tonight, but we think the Mavs are the better ballclub and we like them laying fewer than seven here on Sunday Night. The Mavs are coming off a somewhat embarrassing loss to the Suns, and they should bounce back well here. We think they will put their best foot forward here after playing lousy last time out. This is also their last home game before they go on a four-game road trip against WC playoff contenders, and that makes a win here imperative. They should be heavy dogs in all those road games. The Kings are coming off a home loss to Golden State where they played well and covered. This is probably a letdown spot after that strong effort. |
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12-15-18 | Rockets -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 105-97 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
If the Rockets were a stock, we would be buying right now. We knew this team would start to turn it on, and now it seems like that is taking place after wins and covers in their last two games, against the Blazers and Lakers. The Grizzlies had a very strong start to the season, but they are trailing off now. Their offense has failed to reach the century mark in five of their last six games. The Houston offense has really got in rhythm and we don’t think the Grizzlies will be able to slow them down. Houston has won and covered the last two meetings by double digits, and they have covered in four of the last six meetings. Those trends hold firm tonight. |
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12-15-18 | Indiana -1.5 v. Butler | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #667 Indiana over Butler (3:45p.m., Saturday, December 15 CBS) This 4 team tournament always seems to feature competitive games and upsets but I just do not believe Butler has the same magic under this coaching staff. The Bulldogs are 7-2 on the season but both of their losses have come against teams that will likely not make the NCAA Tournament come March. Indiana is 8-2 and both of their losses are against quality teams with one of them (Duke) possessing the most talent in the country. Indiana can score points and they are shooting over 51% on the season. Butler will have to be on fire from long range to make a game of this and I do not expect that to happen. The Hoosiers are in year two under Archie Miller and they have already shown flashes of brilliance this year and I expect them to make the NCAA Tournament come March. They pick up another quality win today at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. |
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12-14-18 | Pacers +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
We will go with the hot team here as the Pacers come in riding a five-game winning streak. This team is healthy now, while the Sixers have some injury issues, and Butler is questionable here for this one tonight. The Pacers always get up to play the Sixers, and they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in Philly and 9-4 ATS overall in the last 13 meetings. We see this as a very competitive team and the Pacers have been a much better betting team than has the Sixers thus far this season. An outright win is not out of the question here. |
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12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 87-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Clippers are trending down right now with four straight ATS losses and five of their last six. They won only one of those ATS loss games, at Phoenix, and the feeble Suns took them to overtime where LA squeaked out the win. Every NBA team goes through these downturns, and you can’t fault the Clips after the way they started the season. But San Antonio is trending up, and they have won and covered three straight, all at home. We thought that this line should be about 4.5 and we would lean Spurs at that number but this small number offers up a lot of value tonight. |
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12-11-18 | Suns v. Spurs UNDER 219 | Top | 86-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Five of the last six meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total, and this is the highest total we have seen during that stretch. The Suns have really struggled on offense lately. Five of their last seven games have seen them finish under the century mark for scoring. They played, and lost, in OT to the Clippers last night and this looks like a spot where their offense comes out flat again. Booker is out again for the Suns and Crawford is questionable here. We see this as a likely blowout here the Suns once again fail to reach the century mark, and we think the Spurs will get their points but they won’t go crazy on offense. |
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12-10-18 | Pelicans v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
After a slow start to the season, the Celtics have come on strong lately and this team has now won and covered in five straight. Most of those games were blowouts, including a matchup at New Orleans to start the streak, a 124-107 Celtics win. We think revenge is an overrated NBA handicapping angle, and the Pelicans have been inconsistent lately and they are just trying to get on the same page as a team. If they are hunting for revenge then they will have a lot of teams in their target as they have been racking up too many losses lately. We have to go with the hot hand here as the Celtics are now playing to their potential, and that potential has them as a Top 2 team in the Eastern Conference. |
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12-09-18 | Bucks v. Raptors -5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
The Bucks have been just average on the road this season at 4-5 on the year. We thought that this line should be above 7, so we think there is some great value with what looks like the best team in the NBA during the first part of the season. The Bucks won the last matchup very early in the season, but they are not in the best form right now as they have covered in only one of their last seven games. This one looks like a real mismatch and we expect the home team to win comfortably. |
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12-08-18 | Wisconsin v. Marquette | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #777 Wisconsin over Marquette (5p.m., Saturday, December 7 FOX) This battle of Wisconsin takes place at the new Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. We used Marquette last week as our big play and won easily but I do not expect the kind of officiating in this game that we saw in that game. The road team has dominated this series having covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Wisconsin is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games. Marquette is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Wisconsin is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Badgers have the best player in the floor in Ethan Happ and they will not let Markus Howard go off like he did last Saturday. |
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12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons -120 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
In the NBA home-court advantage is everything. And that could not be more evident when looking at the Sixers home/road splits. This team is 13-1 at home but just 4-8 on the road this season. The Pistons are in the same boat at 9-4 at home and 4-5 on the road. This Pistons team is underrated and they are coming off two straight losses in tough matchups, and they will be anxious to get back on the winning track here tonight in front of a national TV audience. Before those two losses they had won five straight, all here at home. The Sixers will be without Embiid tonight, and that hurts their chances here. The Sixers are perpetually overrated by oddsmakers this season, and they have been a money burner at 11-15 ATS, mostly because of their road woes. They are 2-5 ATS on the road against winning teams this season. Detroit is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit, and we feel they will get the win here tonight. |
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12-06-18 | Suns v. Blazers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 86-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
The Suns are really struggling on offense lately, and they have averaged just 96 PPG in their last four contests, three of which saw them finish the game under the century mark, which is becoming very rare in this day’s NBA. And because scoring is up league wide, the bookies have to post high totals every night. This looks like one where they got it wrong. Devin Booker is the best offensive weapon for the Suns, and he has been banged up lately and will be out here, and their offense will suffer as a result. The Blazers have been better on defense at home than on the road, but they have been road warriors for awhile and haven’t played much at home in the last couple weeks. We think they put up a big defensive effort against a struggling Suns offense and we don’t see the Suns getting over 100 here tonight. The Blazers offense has been hit or miss, and we just don’t see them exploding for a 120+ type game in this one. They should do enough to win handily and will probably dribble the shot clock out at the end of the game. |
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12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
The Grizzlies have lost four of five but they faced a real tough slate during that stretch that saw them lose to Toronto, at Philly, and at these same Clippers. The Grizzlies had that game in hand until some late Clipper heroics and then they lost in overtime and missed the cover by ½ point. They will put their best foot forward tonight against a traditional rival and with the venue now at home. Memphis has had two nights off and they are 6-0 ATS with this much rest. We think they will be very focused to get back on track in this one. The Clippers are one of the biggest surprises in the league this year and they are a very good team. But they are starting to be overvalued by the oddsmakers, and we think that is the case here tonight. We think this will be a high-scoring game and that the posted total is about four points too low. |
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12-04-18 | Bulls +9.5 v. Pacers | Top | 90-96 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
The Bulls are a terrible team, but they have covered just as many games this season as the Pacers have. We simply think that this line is too large on Tuesday. The Bulls fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and sometimes this gives the team some extra motivation as sometimes the coach’s message has stopped getting through to the players. We think they will play hard here. The Pacers are the much better team, but they are missing their superstar and best player in Oladipo and this squad has lost four out of its last six. They are also on the dreaded first game back home after a long road trip, not to mention they play on the road for one game after this home contest, and sometimes players don’t give full effort in these spots since they have off-the-court life dealings to consider. This is too many points on Tuesday. |
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12-03-18 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 110-83 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Two teams that are playing very well, but the Pistons have won five straight and seven of their last eight. They are in amazing form right now and clicking on all facets of the game when this team has underwhelmed so many times over the years. They are 9-3 at home this season while the Thunder are just average on the road at 5-4. Both teams have been winning against an easy schedule lately, but we have just been more impressed by what the Pistons have done, and they are the team catching points at home. Very live home dog here on Monday that should be able to get the outright win. |
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12-02-18 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
The wrong team is favored here. The Clippers have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season and they sit No. 1 in the Western Conference. They have had a decently easy schedule lately and this team is just average on the road where they sit at 6-5 on the season (The Mavs are 8-2 at home). Dallas has won seven of their last nine so they are in fine form as well. DeAndre Jordan will be hyped to play against his old team, and the rest of his teammates will rally around him against what is becoming a bit of an overrated Clippers team. |
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12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #534 Marquette over Kansas State (2p.m., Saturday, December 1 FS1) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Both teams return a ton of experience, but Marquette needs this game more to bolster their hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid. Always like a game that features an unranked team that is favored against a ranked team. The Golden Eagles are a much better team at home and this will be the first two road game for Kansas State and their Milwaukee native coach. Marquette has two losses on the season, but they have played a much more difficult schedule, but they have yet to record a quality win. This will be the day that it happens. Generally, to win on the road against good teams you must shoot the ball well from long range and that is just not something this Wildcat team does well. This will be a contrast in styles with Marquette having the edge on the perimeter compared to K-State having the edge in the pant. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big East teams. Marquette has yet to hit their stride and play a complete 40 minute game but I expect that to happen on Saturday. |
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11-30-18 | Jazz v. Hornets -2 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
We had this game handicapped at Charlotte -6, so very nice value here in this line. This number seems very public and not a real representation of how these teams have played on the court thus far. Kemba Walker for the Hornets is putting in an MVP-like season so far, and he has the Hornets at 14-7 ATS and 8-3 at home this season. This team will be undervalued no matter how they play since they are so under the radar on a national level. Utah is the “name” team in this matchup, but they haven’t lived up to the massive preseason hype. They are under .500 on the season and they are not playing the stellar defense that we are used to seeing from this team. There isn’t the same teamwork we saw last season. Their star players have underperformed. This team will probably turn it around at some point, but right now they are overvalued by the oddsmakers, and we will take advantage of this bad line tonight with a big play for the Hornets. |
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11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 235 | Top | 133-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
We liked the over in the Clippers game last night and that didn’t work out, but this one looks a lot better here on Thursday. The Kings and Clippers both have Top 10 offenses this season (The Clips are in the Top 5) and both teams have among the worst defenses, statistically, in the league. The Clippers are the better defensive club, but they come in on a back-to-back and we don’t see them having the legs for defense tonight. This team can score no matter what, but we don’t think they can grind down on defense in this matchup, especially against a Kings team that averages more than 114 PPG on the season. Three straight games in this series have gone over the posted total. We think both teams put up a massive number tonight in a game that should be very competitive and entertaining, that is unless you appreciate defensive basketball. But we think the Kings prevail here and we think there is a great chance that both teams surpass 120. |
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11-28-18 | Cavs v. Thunder UNDER 218 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
We know that scoring is up in the NBA this season and it’s tough to take unders at times, but these two teams played earlier this month and the total reached only 181! And now they think these teams will combine for 30+ more points? We don’t see it. Yes, Westbrook was out for OKC for that game. But we think this one will still be low scoring. The Thunder are a Top 5 defensive team this season. They should be able to hold the Cavs to around 100 or less, and this one could be a blowout where we see the Thunder dribble the ball out on the final 24 second clock. |
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11-27-18 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are 12-7 ATS and they keep getting disrespected by the oddsmakers. That is the case here tonight as we had them +1 in this matchup and give them a good chance to win outright. They lost a tough one on Friday in OT at the Clippers then had a letdown in their last game against the Knicks, so they will be anxious to get back on track here against one of the top teams in the east. Toronto plays Golden State next, so they will probably be more concerned about that matchup, and the Grizzlies head on the road after this game so they know they need a win here. Memphis is 6-3 ATS against above-.500 teams this season, and they are undervalued once again by the bookies tonight. |
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11-24-18 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 129-135 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
This is a real tough spot for the Spurs, who are on a back-to-back on the road and playing their third game in four nights despite all NBA teams getting the night off for Thanksgiving. The Bucks have similar rest, but they had a much easier game on Friday against the Suns and they get to stay home for this back-to-back, which is a big advantage. San Antonio is down this season from what we are used to, and this team isn’t very good on the road. The Bucks are nearly unbeatable on their home court and they are one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, which means you can trust them laying a big number like this. |
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11-23-18 | Jazz +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 83-90 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Overjoyed to get Utah as an underdog here as they are the superior team and should get the straight up road win tonight at Staples Center. Don’t be fooled by the records for these teams; the Jazz have gotten off to a slow start against a tougher schedule. And even at 10-7 straight up, the Lakers have been overvalued by the oddsmakers, as all LeBron James teams tend to be, as they are just 6-11 ATS on the season. Utah has won seven straight in this series. Yes, the Lakers are stronger with LeBron now, but you can’t ignore that long stretch of dominance. The Jazz are pretty fresh off a long road trip where they went 2-3 and then they dropped the normally-tough first game back home after a long trip to the Kings. We think they really need this game to get back on track and we think they give max effort here in a very winnable game. For whatever reason the Jazz have played better on the road than at home this season, and they have also covered five of the last seven meetings between these two teams in LA. |
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11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -7 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
After a hot start the Bucks had some struggles as they went through a tough stretch (3-4 SU and ATS). But they have won and covered two straight and this team is trending up again. This is a more complete and better team than the Blazers, and we expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight. These teams have almost identical records and yet the Bucks are laying a decent-sized number here. We think it’s not big enough, however. Also, the Bucks have owned this series as they are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Blazers are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Bucks were off Tuesday and they have had a mellow schedule recently. They are primed for a big game tonight. |
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11-21-18 | Minnesota +1 v. Washington | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #533 Minnesota over Washington (6:30p.m., Wednesday, November 21 BTN) Washington just has not been playing well early in the season. They needed to rally to beat a so-so Texas A&M team last night and I do not believe they will have much left in the tank for this game. Minnesota had an easier game last night against Santa Clara and they should be better rested for this game tonight in Vancouver. Washington got blown out Auburn and they have struggled to cover the spread during much of the early season. Washington is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against PAC-12 teams. |
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11-19-18 | Clippers -8 v. Hawks | Top | 127-119 | Push | 0 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers are a Top 4 team in the west in the standings right now, and not many expected this. But if they stay healthy all season, this is going to be a playoff team and one that the top teams in the west will not want to play in the postseason. They are 9-6 against the spread this year so far, so they are defying oddsmakers expectations. This team plays great team basketball and they are unselfish. They have guys that can score and they play decent defense. They started their road trip last time out against Brooklyn in what could have been a letdown spot after home wins against the Spurs and Warriors, but they won and covered in that contest. Now they face a much weaker team in Atlanta tonight. This is arguably the worst team in the NBA. They have lost seven straight and covered in only three of those games, despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. This Clippers team seems like one that will not lower itself to the level of competition like past Clippers squads, and we think they take advantage of this situation for an easy road win tonight. |
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11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -3 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
We have faded the Golden State Warriors the last two games, and it has worked out pretty well, so we will go for three in a row here. We have the feeling the Warriors may enter their toughest stretch of this current regime. They have off-court drama going on, impending free agency and injuries. They also don’t have the fire they have had in previous seasons. And we don’t think they give a crap. As long as they are healthy and synched heading into the playoffs, we don’t think this team cares about playoff positioning as long as they are a Top 4 seed. The Spurs are in a more desperate situation tonight as they have lost five of six. But they have played a road-heavy schedule. They are still dominant at home at 5-2, and they will put their best foot forward tonight. They aren’t going to give the Warriors any breaks because of their current problems, and we think they win this one by a comfortable margin tonight. |
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11-17-18 | Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | Top | 98-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Both teams come in on a back-to-back, but the Celtics played in OT last night in a much bigger game and we think this might be a letdown spot against a Jazz team that needs a win before a couple lousy games snowball into a concerning losing streak. We see think both offenses might come out a bit flat in this one and there is a good chance for a low-scoring game, which makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. These teams played recently in Utah and the Jazz won that one pretty comfortably, so we know they can match up against Boston. We think the dog has a great chance to bark tonight for the outright win. |
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11-16-18 | Jazz +3 v. 76ers | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
We love to back a good team after a bad loss, and that handicapping angle doesn’t get any better than this matchup tonight. The Jazz suffered what will go down as one of the worst (and most head-scratching) losses of the season last time out when they lost by 50 points in Dallas. That is just a super embarrassing result and this team will come out and give max effort tonight, we have no doubt about that. This is one of the best teams in the NBA. Teams just have off nights like this where nothing goes right, and there was a real lack of effort there after things got out of hand. But starters played limited minutes and they will have extra energy to get things back on track here tonight. The Jazz had won and covered three straight before that loss, so overall we will give them a mulligan for that game and assume they will return to current form here. And they are 5-3 on the road this season. Philly is undefeated at home, but this team hasn’t had a very tough home slate. This is their toughest home game of the season by far. And we think overall the Jazz are a much better team. Philly is just 6-10 ATS this season, so it’s obvious they are overvalued by the oddsmakers. We think Utah has a great chance for the outright win here. |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -3 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Love the Rockets in this spot. They started the season real slow, but now they have won five of seven and they enter this one on a two-game winning streak. It seems like parting from Carmelo Anthony did this team a world of good, and they seem to have their confidence back. On the other side of the court is the Warriors. And you have to wonder if the cracks they have shown lately are the start of the end for this dynasty. Draymond Green is starting lots of drama with this team, and one of the best things about this squad in recent years was their ability to mesh on and off the court. This team has now covered only one of their last four, and the Hawks have them all they could handle last time out (we cashed on Atlanta as a big underdog). You get the feeling that the Warriors are not invested in this game as much as the Rockets. Houston is a team that wants to do a lot of damage in the regular season, while the Warriors just want to make sure everything is good before the postseason, and that is their biggest concern. And Curry is the stabilizing force with this Warriors team, and with the current drama surrounding this club, his presence on the court will be sorely missed tonight. |
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11-15-18 | Ohio State v. Creighton +2 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
6 Unit Play. Take #508 Creighton +2 over Ohio State (7p.m., Thursday, November 15 FS1) Playing in Omaha is always a tough challenge and with the talent Ohio State lost from last year I do not expect them to win this true road game. Creighton lost a bunch of talent as well but they do have the advantage of playing this at the CenturyLink Center. Most of the money is coming in on Ohio State yet the line is going the other direction. Creighton is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. |
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11-14-18 | Heat -1.5 v. Nets | Top | 120-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
We think Miami will be extra motivated here tonight after dropping three straight games at home, but those were all against playoff-quality teams. They will be desperate for a win tonight, and now they face a lottery team in the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn lost one of their best players when Caris LeVert went down with a really bad foot injury last time out against Minnesota. It looks like he won’t be lost for the season, but he was really the engine for this team and see some regression from this team for maybe a few games until they can get back in the groove. The Heat have a very strong history here in Brooklyn as they are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. This team hasn’t always played well this season and they have been somewhat of a disappointment thus far, but this is a playoff-quality club and we think this is a great spot for them to get back on track against a line that looks quite a bit short in our eyes. |
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11-13-18 | Wisconsin -1 v. Xavier | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #507 Wisconsin over Xavier (6:30p.m., Tuesday, November 13 FS1) Xavier is in a complete rebuilding mode this year and will have a new coach on the end line as well with Chris Mack bolting to Louisville. Wisconsin had a terrible season last year but had a couple of key injuries and everyone is back and they should be able to return to the NCAA Tournament. They have the best player on the floor in Ethan Happ and look for them to return the favor of winning this game on the road (Xavier won in Madison last year). This is an important game for Wisconsin to keep their confidence high and for their unproven coach. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 6 straight road games. Xavier is 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games. Wisconsin opened as a favorite for this game and that lets me believe they are the right side for this play. |
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11-12-18 | Spurs v. Kings +3 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Sacramento is underrated and we think this is a very public line on Monday night. The Kings have one of the better offenses in the NBA right now and they can light up the scoreboard on any given night. The Kings have had some tough games lately, but this seems like a good spot for a bounce back. The Spurs are a bit down this year and they come off a big win over Houston but we don’t see this team putting together two strong games. We had this game handicapped at PK so we think there is nice value on the home dog tonight. |
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 132-133 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
The Hornets have been good at covering the spread this season, but we think the price is right for the home team in this situation. The Sixers have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs, and the non-cover, this season, was still a Philly win. The Sixers are playing with confidence right now and got their first road win of the season last time out in Indiana, which is a really tough place to play. We think that positive momentum will carry over here on Friday night. |
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11-08-18 | Rockets -4 v. Thunder | Top | 80-98 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
After a slow start the Rockets are really coming on now with three straight wins to start this road trip. The Thunder have won six straight as well, and there were a couple quality wins in there for sure, but for the most part they have beaten up on some dregs. And they are in a tough spot here on a back-to-back and with Westbrook questionable for tonight. This line will change once Westbrook’s status is determined as he nurses an injured ankle. We like the Rockets whether he plays or not, and he probably won’t be near 100% if he does. Not only are they on a back-to-back but they are playing their third game in four nights while the Rockets were off the last two nights. After their slow start, the Rockets can’t afford to take a night off. They need to have a real successful road trip then their slow start will be forgotten. Houston normally plays well here and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these clubs. |
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11-07-18 | 76ers +3 v. Pacers | Top | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Sixers have yet to win or cover on the road this season, but they have had some inflated expectations to start the season. But we think those oddsmakers expectations have gone down and we love them getting points tonight in a game they will fight hard to win. They have had a really tough road schedule to start off with. In their last game, also a road game, they were blown out by the likely-lottery team Brooklyn. That has to be embarrassing for this team that has such lofty expectations. So does the 0-5 road start. Not sure that they will get it tonight, but we think they will have extra motivation to play their best, and at their best this is a better team than the Pacers. Indiana has lost two of their last three here at home, and we think there’s a good chance that they drop this one as well. |
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11-06-18 | BYU +14 v. Nevada | Top | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #749 BYU over Nevada (11p.m., Tuesday, November 6 CBSSN) Nevada is ranked in the top 10 and that is deservedly so. But they have not looked sharp in the exhibition season getting blown out by Washington at home and struggling for 33 minutes against San Francisco State. They have not been shooting the ball well and struggling on defense. BYU can match their experience and this team is always pesky and used to playing in tough road environments. The Cougars are predicted to finish ahead of Saint Mary’s in the WCC Standing (2nd overall) just behind mid-major power Gonzaga. BYU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against MWC foes. Look for a Wolf Pack victory by 7-10 points giving us the cover with the underdog. |
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11-06-18 | Nets v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 104-82 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The Suns stopped a seven-game losing streak last time out as they hosted Memphis, and we think this team is a tad underrated right now. They are not a good team, don’t get us wrong. But Devin Booker is back in the mix for the Suns, and he is a star in this league and gives his team a chance to win every night. He will help their scoring against this small total (for this season in the NBA, at least). And he gives the Suns a great chance to win here at home tonight. Phoenix has played just a brutal schedule, and they have been considerable underdogs in many games this season. But they have covered three of their last four, and we think they will get the win tonight against another probable lottery team from the east. |
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11-05-18 | Cavs +5 v. Magic | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Neither of these teams is any good, and this is anybody’s game, in our opinion, and we have to grab the points in this matchup. Orlando is 1-4 ATS this season at home and they failed to cover in their one game as a listed favorite, while the Cavs are 3-1 ATS on the road, so they have done their best work in this situation they are in tonight. The Cavs have also covered 8 of the last 11 games here in Orlando, and we think they have a good chance to win this one outright. Orlando is a team we like to back when they are getting major points as they normally excel as a double-digit dog. But we have to fade them here in the favorites role in what we expect to be a close game. |
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11-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Suns +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This is a major trap game for the Grizzlies, who we don’t think are as good as their 5-2 record would indicate. They are coming off a huge win at Utah last time out, and they play at Golden State next, so we think they are due for a letdown in this matchup. And we don’t think the Grizzlies should be this big of a road favorite over anyone. And this is a major revenge spot for the Suns, who got thumped a little over a week ago in Memphis. We expect them to play much better here against a familiar opponent, and with the venue now more favorable. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win in this matchup, and we think there is value in this line. |
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11-03-18 | Celtics -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
Both teams have been very good lately, but with the Celtics big win over Milwaukee on Thursday this team is trending up big time. Boston has been one of the most consistent teams to wager on the last couple seasons, and we really like them with this short line on Saturday. Indiana has won four of six but they have had some dregs on their schedule lately, while Boston is on a four-game winning streak against very solid competition, and their confidence is sky high after knocking the Bucks from the ranks of the unbeaten on Thursday. Boston is playing some of the best defense in the NBA right now, and that will be the difference here on Saturday. |
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11-02-18 | Rockets -4 v. Nets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The Rockets have been playing like dog poop to start the season at 1-5. They have had an extremely tough schedule to start the season, however, playing a bunch of Western Conference playoff contenders. This is the start of a long and important road trip for the Rockets, and they need to get their act together. We have a feeling this road trip may be very good for Houston. This is their easiest game of the season thus far for sure, and this looks like a good spot to start turning things around. Brooklyn has been decent to start the season and this team plays hard on a nightly basis, but if the Rockets play their best, even without Harden, they have much better talent and should win this game going away. |
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11-01-18 | Kings -2 v. Hawks | Top | 146-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Hawks are the worst team in the NBA, and we will go against them here on Thursday night at home. The Kings have started the season hot, and maybe this team will actually be competitive this season. They are 5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread, and this line has value as well. This team is in the Top 6 in the three most important offensive categories, and the Kings are lighting up the scoreboard on a regular basis. The Hawks don’t do anything particularly well, and we don’t think their offense can keep in in this game. The Hawks will get too much credit on the line here since they are at home in this matchup. But we think the Kings will take care of business here and continue their hot start to the regular season. |
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10-31-18 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
We were happy this line came out under 7 as we really like the Pacers tonight. The Pacers have dominated the last two meetings, winning and covering in both games. Indiana has been very solid to start the season, but they are coming off a lousy effort against Portland last time out. We think they will bounce back against a Knicks team that has been on the wrong end of several blowouts already here in the young season. Indiana is healthy and they will take care of business tonight. |
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Love this matchup and the short line on the Pacers. The Blazers travel to Houston tomorrow, and we think they will overlook this out-of-conference opponent. Indiana is legit and 4-2 on the young season. But they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers because there aren’t many big names on the roster. But they plan great team basketball and we think they will take care of business tonight and score a win by 7 or more points. |
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10-28-18 | Jazz v. Mavs +5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Dallas has played great at home, where they are 2-0 both SU and ATS. This team is underrated coming into the season, and they catch Utah on a back-to-back (Dallas was off Saturday) after a much bigger game against New Orleans yesterday. Dallas has played very well in this series as they have covered in five of the last six matchups. With the Jazz coming in on a back-to-back, we think that evens the playing field here and we think this will be a very close game with the home team in a good spot to pull off the outright upset. |
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10-27-18 | Magic +10 v. Bucks | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
We have stated before that we like the Magic as a double-digit underdog, and they are 2-0 ATS in this role so far this season. We think they have a great shot to be competitive tonight against this big number. The Bucks are on a back-to-back here after a tough game at Minnesota last night and they are coming off a recent game against Philly, too, so this will be their third game in four nights. They also host Toronto on Sunday, so this makes this a major letdown spot. The Magic were off on Friday and they are well rested overall and we think the Bucks might be on upset alert tonight. |
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10-26-18 | Bucks v. Wolves | Top | 125-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The Wolves have played better than expected to start the season, and even with all the Jimmy Butler drama they have been very competitive. They have covered two straight games and we expect them to complete the trifecta tonight. Last time out they were very competitive in Toronto. They will come into this game with a lot of confidence against another Eastern Conference opponent. The Bucks are coming off their big win at home against Philly. They have looked great against a home-heavy schedule but played their worst game on the road in the season opener against Charlotte. |
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10-25-18 | Celtics v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Boston has gotten off to a real slow start to the season and they are just 1-3 ATS so far on the year. This team is clearly overrated by the oddsmakers. The Thunder have yet to notch a win on the year, so they have started slow too. They are just getting Westbrook back in the mix, though, and there’s no doubt they will be hyped up for not only this opponent but to get their first win in 2018. Boston will be fine and they are one of the best teams in the East, if not THE best. But we have to take advantage of their slow start and go against them tonight. |
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10-24-18 | Nets v. Cavs -3 | Top | 102-86 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
It’s tough to back the Cavaliers after their blowout loss to the Hawks in their home opener. That should have been their first win of the season, but instead they were embarrassed by what is the consensus pick for worst team in the NBA this season. We do like to back teams after a shameful loss like that, especially this Cavs team that has a lot of playoff experience (and pride) on the roster. Bettor confidence is at an all-time low for this team right now after LeBron left town and now 0-3 to start the year. That has created some value here, however, as we had this line at 5.5 since the Nets aren’t anything special. We think there’s a good chance that the Cavs cruise in this one. |
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10-23-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
The Clippers have had a strong start to the season, as we predicted because we have used them a bunch already. But they have enjoyed the cushy confines of Staples Center for a three-game homestand to start the season. The season gets real here, however, with this tough game followed by a trip to Houston. LA normally doesn’t play well here. They are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 visits here. And they have covered only one of the last five no matter the venue. We think this line is giving a bit too much credit for the Clippers hot start, and we have to remember there was no Westbrook in the OKC win and no CP3 in the Rockets win. But Anthony Davis brings the star power tonight, and he and his teammates should win this one comfortably. |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | Top | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The Wizards don’t want to start the season in an 0-3 hole so we think they put their best foot forward tonight in a very winnable game for them. Even though they are 0-2, they have played well in two tough games to open the season and they could have easily won either or both of those games. The Blazers finish their three-game homestand to start the season and they are 2-0 entering this contest. We think these teams are fairly even but the road team should be the more motivated of the two and we think they keep this one close if not win outright. |
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10-21-18 | Rockets v. Clippers +7 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
We think the Clippers are very underrated this year. They don’t have any big-name players any more and the public thinks they suck. But as this team is constructed, if they stay healthy they are likely a playoff team in the ultra-competitive west. They would probably be a high seed in the east. They have some injury-prone players for sure, but this team is completely healthy right now and their injury sheet as of this writing is completely clear for Sunday night. They catch Houston in a letdown spot after their big game against LeBron and the Lakers last night. The Clippers played very hard in every game against the Rockets last season. They won two of those matchups, they covered in three, and they did not lose any of the games by more than tonight’s spread. We think there is amazing value in the underdog here tonight. |
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10-20-18 | Rockets -3 v. Lakers | Top | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
The Rockets had a head-scratching loss at home to the Pelicans to open the season. They no doubt don’t want to open the season 0-2. This team is not going to lose many games in the regular season, barring major injuries, and we think they will get back on track in a major way against the overrated Lakers. In their season opener at Portland the Lakers showed flashes, but they also showed that they aren’t ready for primetime. We think that it will take quite awhile for this team to gel and start playing like a team. LeBron James teams are always overrated by the oddsmakers, and Cleveland with him has been one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple seasons. This Lakers team is even more raw and they have thrown together a cast of characters that will take some time to meld into a cohesive unit. We think Houston will be extra motivated tonight and expect them to win this one comfortably |
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10-19-18 | Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves | Top | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Minnesota has so much drama surrounding the team and the Jimmy Butler situation that we think this is a team to fade until we see otherwise with their play on the court. They played well in their opener against San Antonio but failed to cover against a Spurs team that is down from what we are used to. Public bettors are down on the Cavs right now but this team will still be competitive this season, and this is too many points tonight in what we expect to be a pretty competitive game. |
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10-18-18 | Lakers v. Blazers -1 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Cleveland with LeBron James was one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple years. They were overbet by the betting public. They were shaded by the oddsmakers. Now LeBron is on the West Coast and we think the Lakers are a team to fade, at least early in the season. Adding him to the mix changes the dynamic of this team dramatically, and it’s going to take some time for the team to gel. Another thing working against the Lakers is that they are the biggest public team in the NBA. Bettors love to back them with their money. Now that LeBron has joined the team they are going to be even more of a public play than normal. Portland didn’t make any huge moves in the offseason. This team doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as the Lakers once this team gets a couple more players and gets on the same page. But right now they are clearly the much better team, and we expect them to win this one comfortably in the season opener. |
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10-17-18 | Heat v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The Magic always seem to play tough against the Heat, and we believe that will be the case tonight as well. The Magic have won and covered in five of the last seven meetings. Miami comes into this game banged up and they have a long injury list with many players questionable. If this was later in the season we might shy away from taking the Magic here. But this is a season opener and home opener and a game against an in-state rival who they generally play well against. The Magic started off the season very strong last season and then they tailed off. But we expect maximum effort here in the season opener and the public will be all over the Heat in this one so this is a solid public fade. |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
We think that both teams want this bad and that this game, on opening night, will be a defensive battle and we think this total is about 3-4 points too high as we had this number closer to 207 so we think there is value here in the number. This one should have a playoff atmosphere and these are two of the best three teams in the east this season. We think this game will be a close, hard-fought contest throughout but we think that Boston will pull ahead in the fourth and make a statement in this game. We will tread lightly here for opening night but we do see some great value here and expect to start off the season on a positive note. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
If the Cavs were a young team than maybe we could see a lack of effort here as they are doomed down 0-3. But this is a veteran team and they will go all out tonight to avoid the sweep. We think they have a good chance to win. Besides Game 2, which was on the road, the Cavs have overall played pretty competitively in this series. They should have covered Game 3 but Golden State just got hot at the end of the game. We think this is a game where the Cavs will leave everything on the court and we think they could win this one straight up. They don’t want to get swept here as that is a black mark on their season even though they know they can’t win the series. And Golden State might subconsciously let down here in Game 4 as they know they are headed back to the Bay Area to win in Game 5 in the event that they lose here. Also, we think the total is once again too high here. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Cavs will be desperate here and they will give everything they have to win Game 3 here. If they don’t then this series is over. They have to treat this game like a Game 7 and they know that, so we think they give their best effort here. We think this will be a close game and either team has a chance to win. We think the Cavs will win one game in this series, and this is probably it. If they don’t win here they will probably be demoralized in Game 4. As for the total, both games have gone over. But Game 1 shouldn’t have. It was on track to go well under the total until a late burst of scoring and then overtime. And in Game 2 Cleveland could not stop the Warriors. But both teams should tighten up on defense tonight in this crucial game, and Golden State doesn’t score the ball as well on the road as they do at home. We think the Cavs will slow them down a bit and both teams will concentrate more on D than we saw in Game 2. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
We were on the under in Game 1 and it should have cashed in. We had a lot of wiggle room with just a couple minutes left and there was a flurry of scoring late and some bizarre stuff happened as we all know. We consider that a bad beat but we will brush ourselves off and come back here with another strong play on the under. The under was the clear play for Game 1 and it was the right play even though it didn’t work out but the bookies didn’t really adjust from their opening number in Game 1. In both conference finals series the series got more defensive-oriented as they went on and we see this happening in the Finals as well. We also think the Warriors will learn from their close call in Game 1 and come out strong here to make a statement. We see them winning here by double digits. The Cavs played probably the best they could in Game 1 and blew it, and that has to be demoralizing against one of the best teams of all time. The Cavs are in tough here on Sunday. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
Lots of trends that point to the under here for Game 1 and we think the bookies have posted an inflated number here as well. First of all, the under is 8-2-2 in the last 12 games played between these teams in the Bay Area. Both teams overall have trended to the under this season as they have faced inflated totals on a regular basis. Cleveland has really stepped up their defense compared to the regular season and they played extremely well on the defensive end in the Boston series, holding the Celtics to an average of 93 points in the last five games. Golden State held Houston, an even better offense than Cleveland, to fewer than 91 points in the last five games. We think the extended break between the end of the conference finals and the start of the NBA Finals might disrupt the rhythm of these two teams on offense. Games 1 of both conference finals series went under the total and both teams faced an extended break before Game 3 of the conference finals, and both of those Game 3s went under the posted total. These are very familiar foes and both are playing excellent defense and we see this one being a defensive battle instead of a free-flowing game. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
The Rockets had one of the worst halves in NBA postseason history in Game 6 and they were thoroughly embarrassed. Normally we would like a good team to bounce back but Houston looked lost and the players had that “deer in the headlights” look on their faces. That is not a good sign for the city of Houston tonight. Chris Paul is iffy in this one and they say he will be a gametime decision. Even if he does go he would not be anywhere near 100% and if this were the regular season he probably would miss significant time with this injury. We think the much better Warriors step on the Rockets throats tonight and end this series with a big win. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Boston has been our play in this series all the way, and since they have not lost at home yet in these playoffs we aren’t going to back off now. This is the better ballclub this year and we don’t think LeBron and Co. can get the job done here on the road. This series has been more competitive than we thought but in the end we think the Celtics take this and end LeBron’s stronghold on the ECF. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets +13 v. Warriors | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
We think the Warriors are still going to win this series. They will win tonight and will probably be favored in Game 7. They are still heavy favorites to win the series. But we think this is just an inflated line tonight. Yes, Paul is out for the Rockets but this is still a good squad. They have to know that they need to close this series out tonight and we think they will treat this one like a Game 7. Also, the scores for the last two games have been very low and if this one plays out similarly then that makes the points all the more valuable. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The home teams have won and covered every game in this series so far but we think something has to give with that trend. The Celtics have a chance to close out this series tonight, and we think they play with a lot more intensity than they have in the first two games in Cleveland. We think that at least this will be a close game. We think the Celtics defense will really step up tonight. This is a very fair line for the Celtics and with the lowest total of the series so far we think the points are all the more valuable. We see a close, low-scoring game here tonight. |
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