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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 233.5 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Three straight and six of the last seven have gone under the posted number. This is a rivalry and we think both teams dig deep on defense, especially with the postseason quickly approaching. Milwaukee has held Chicago under the century mark in five of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three meetings. Six of the last nine games for the Bulls have gone under the posted number. The bookies have had to post some big numbers because of the crazy scoring we have seen the last couple of months, but the postseason is coming fast and teams will take the games more seriously and dig deeper defensively. We think the bookies got this total wrong also. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Villanova over Kansas (6:09p.m., Saturday, April 2 TBS) Nobody is giving Villanova much of a chance in this game since they will be without Justin Moore for this game. Villanova is a pesky team that can really slow the game down and make all their free throws as a team. They can frustrate Kansas and I do not believe this is one of Coach Self’s most talented teams. The Wildcats are earned this spot beating three impressive teams to reach the Final Four. Kansas had a much easier draw, and they are not as battle tested in the NCAA Tournament this season. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Villanova and Kansas. The Jayhawks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. |
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04-01-22 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Pistons are in a real letdown spot here. They had one of their biggest wins of the season last night at home vs. Philly. Now they have to travel on the road, on a back-to-back, to play the lowly Thunder. We don’t see how they get up for this game. Not to mention the under is 8-4 in 12 Detroit back-to-backs this season. The Pistons are trending to the under, with four of their last five going under the posted number. The most points they have allowed in those four unders was 104. They held Philly to 94 last night. OKC is dead last in points per game this season. Their best player, Alexander, was shelved for the year recently. They have a hodge-podge group of players right now because of a slew of injuries. OKC has been an over team lately not because of their offense but because of lack of defense. We don’t think this Pistons team will be able to take advantage of that defense on a B2B. When OKC has put up big points it’s normally because of the pace the opponent brings, but we don’t see a lot of pace here tonight. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in OKC. There have been some crazy high-scoring games in the NBA lately and we think as a result that bookies have bumped up totals across the board, but this is one where they have created value on the under.  |
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03-31-22 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 228.5 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Both of the last two meetings went over 139, and we see this one going into the 130s also. Cleveland has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but they have fallen off in that department recently or are at least very inconsistent. They allowed 120 last time out to Dallas, one of the lower ranked offensive teams in the NBA. Atlanta’s offense is clicking big time and they have scored 120+ in three straight. They are very good offensively at home. We expect both teams to be competitive here and both will get their points to put this one over the posted number. |
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03-28-22 | Kings +13 v. Heat | Top | 100-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
This is more of a fade of Miami than a statement about Sacramento. Miami is in a freefall right now and this is a very public number. Miami has dropped four straight and they have covered only one of their last nine. They had that very public blowup on the sideline last week, and that is the type of thing that can linger for a long time. Can the Heat win this one and get back on track? Absolutely. But we just don’t see this team getting back on track in a big way with a blowout. The Kings enter having won two straight. They have covered three in a row as they also lost to the Suns in OT. So they are playing well right now. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings so they normally get up for this opponent. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke +1.5 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #630 Duke over Texas Tech (9:39p.m., Thursday, March 24 CBS) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR Texas Tech has been overvalued this season by the odds makers and metrics and I do not believe they should be favored in this game (morning line odds). Coach K has a great record in this round 16-9 and I do not believe this is the type of team that can take out Duke Texas Tech is a great defensive team, but they struggle at times on offense, and I am not sure they will be able to score enough to keep pace with Duke. They also have a first-year coach with them who did not have any success in his previous stop as a head coach. I am not sure I trust him in a close game against the greatest coach in college basketball. Everyone wants to see a Duke – Gonzaga Elite 8 game and I feel that will happen. Duke has a national fan base, and they will be well represented in this game that takes place in San Francisco. Texas Tech is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games played on Thursday. Duke is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played on Thursday. |
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03-24-22 | Wizards v. Bucks -13 | Top | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The Bucks started off the season slow. Maybe it was the NBA Finals hangover. But no matter, they are in playoff form now and have won nine of 11 games. They have covered in eight of those games, so despite lots of respect from the oddsmakers they are still getting the job done in a big way. They have motivation as well as they will want to get that No. 1 seed, and they are currently a couple games back of Miami. Washington is mathematically still alive, but who are we kidding. This team will be eliminated soon, and right now they are probably just playing out the string. If their last game was any indication, that is exactly the case as they lost to the Rockets by 18. This team is getting blown out on a regular basis, and we don’t see the Bucks breaking too much of a sweat to win this one by double digits. |
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03-23-22 | Magic v. Thunder +2 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off one of its biggest wins of the year last night at home against Golden State. Now they have to turn around on a back-to-back and play a team that is desperate for a win and one they just beat at home on Sunday. OKC will be looking for revenge. We just think this is a big letdown spot for Orlando and this team doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite over any team in the NBA. OKC is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 43-25-4 on the season. They have dealt with a lot of injuries but they still manage to play above oddsmakers expectations, and they probably have the best player on the court right now in Alexander. OKC has covered in six of the last seven meetings. OKC has had a very tough schedule. If they are to end the losing streak, this is the game to do it. |
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03-22-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -7 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
We like to back a good team after a bad loss, and that is the case here tonight. Last time we saw the Bucks they lost by almost 20 in Minnesota. They have had two days to let that loss go, and we think they will be motivated and prepared against a regional rival here. The Greek Freak should be back here as he is probable, and he is well rested after missing the Minnesota game. He hasn’t been out long enough to be rusty, but he has been out long enough to regain some energy that is crucial at this point of the season. Chicago is on a back-to-back here, and we see a dominating win from the home team. |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -2 | Top | 108-110 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas has lost two straight and they were embarrassed last time out on the road in Charlotte and they lost to Philly on the road also. This is getting down to the nitty gritty with the postseason in sight and we don’t see the Mavs dropping three straight, and they are back home for this one. Both these teams are close together in the standings and this is a crucial game for the Mavs as they need to fend off the charging Wolves but also avoid dropping down into the play in seedings. They have won eight of their last 11 so we aren’t to worried about those two losses. They are in fine form overall. And the Wolves have had some nice wins for sure but their recent run is a bit deceiving as they have faced teams with missing stars and many bad teams. They will face a very motivated team tonight and one that is the better club, and this line is more than fair. Dallas has a strong betting history against the Wolves as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall. |
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03-19-22 | St. Mary's v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take UCLA over Saint Mary’s (7:10p.m., Saturday, March 19 TBS) I believe UCLA has the potential to return the Final Four and should be able to knockoff a mid-major for California. Saint Mary’s had a huge break getting Indiana in the round of 64. The Hoosiers had to play in the play in game on Tuesday and then had flight issues getting out to Portland. That will not the case on Saturday, as the Bruins will be well rested and battle tested. Saint Mary’s is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as underdog. UCLA is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. The Bruins have a major edge in talent and I just do not believe Saint Mary’s will have an offensive explosion again on Saturday. |
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03-18-22 | Clippers +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
The Clippers have covered in three of five, but they are playing even better than that looks. They missed the cover by a single point last time out vs. Toronto and they were catching seven in Cleveland and lost in OT, so they should have covered that one and there was a questionable call against them at the end of regulation. Utah will be missing some key pieces here as they have two starters out, including their best player, and some key role players. The usual suspects are out for LA, but they have their main core that has played this season ready to go. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings and we think they go all out here to try and win this one outright as the Jazz are very vulnerable tonight missing these players. |
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03-17-22 | Pistons +2.5 v. Magic | Top | 134-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit has been one of the best NBA bets in March and they have covered in 11 of their last 12. Orlando has been inconsistent, even for a bad team, and they are coming off a 40+ beatdown here at home to Brooklyn. Detroit has covered in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and we think this is a great chance for a rare road win for them. |
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03-16-22 | Lakers v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 104-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The Lakers continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. This looks like a double-digit line to us. The Lakers are coming off consecutive double digit losses. This looks like another blowout to us. Minnesota looks like a real contender with eight wins and covers in their last nine games. They are peaking while many other teams are in their mid-season funk. They already had their letdown game against Orlando and that is the only game they didn’t cover in the last nine. The Lakers are always one of the worst ATS teams in the league every year even when they are a dominant team, but they have been one of the worst ATS teams again this season and they are once again being given too much credit by the oddsmakers as we had this game handicapped at -13 and think the home team had tremendous value here. |
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03-12-22 | Bucks -125 v. Warriors | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Bucks have win six straight and they are starting to play like the championship clubs we are used to after slogging through most of the first part of the season. They have covered in five of the last six. Golden State has won and covered two straight, but this team is just not playing well overall as they had lost five straight before this mini winning streak. The Bucks have covered 9 of 12 here in the Bay Area and they normally play well here. Throw out the records here because Milwaukee is the superior team and we think they will bring their A Game to the hardwood tonight. |
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03-12-22 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -145 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #624 Kansas over Texas Tech (6p.m., Saturday, March 12 ESPN) Conference Tournament Game of the Year Just do not see Kansas losing this game in Kansas City. The Jayhawks were the best team in the league all season long and now face a first year coach and a team that has trouble scoring points at times. These teams split during the regular season with each team winning on their home floor and Texas Tech has not been great on the road this season. In fact all 6 of their conference losses have been road games and the Jayhawks will have a big crowd edge in this game. Texas Tech is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Kansas is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. |
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03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
The Nets haven’t had any stability in the roster this season, and that has led to some disappointing results on the court for the team that was favored entering the season in the East. There are some very wacky trends out there that are meaningless, but this one fits the Nets perfectly: they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games where they won by 10 or more points. So they normally follow up a good game with a dud, and they won by double digits against Charlotte last time out. Philly is just quietly getting the job done and they have won eight of 10 and when they win they normally cover. We think the home team has a great chance for a 7+-point win here. |
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03-05-22 | San Diego State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take San Diego State over Nevada (10:30p.m., Saturday, March 5 CBSSN) Just do not believe Nevada is very good this season and this will do a complete rebuild next year. San Diego State cannot afford a loss in this game if they have any hopes of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. The Aztecs have had great success against Nevada and they will enter having won 8 of their last 9 games. That includes wins at Wyoming and Fresno State, much tougher venues then they will face tonight. San Diego State is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road favorite. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games between San Diego State and Nevada. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers +6 | Top | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Really not a true Must Win but the Lakers really need a strong performance here. They were embarrassed last time out against their Little Brother Clippers, and they have lost four straight. They will at least give a lot of effort here. Just can’t see another blowout. The Warriors have dropped five of six, so they aren’t in the best form right now. We rarely ever take the Lakers ATS because they are normally overvalued but the public bettors have jumped off the ship and there is actually value in this line tonight. |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The Clippers have won six straight in this series. They have owned the Lakers recently. They covered all but one of those games, and in that lone ATS loss the Clippers controlled most of the game until a late Lakers rally. The Lakers are the main rival for the Clippers, but it is a rare one-way rivalry in sports. The Lakers have other more important rivals, so this is normally just another game to them. And the Lakers stink this season, while the Clippers have played pretty well through major injuries and roster turnover. |
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03-02-22 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 225.5 | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Thunder have been giving up points in bunches lately. Five straight games have gone over as a result. We see this one being a high scoring affair. Denver has scored 115 or more in five straight. Alexander is back in the swing of things for OKC and he has been playing lights out on offense since he returned. We expect another strong game from him here, and the Thunder have been playing faster recently. Also, we think OKC might be more competitive in this game than the oddsmakers think, so we expect the road team to get their share of the points to get this one over the posted number. |
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03-01-22 | Purdue v. Wisconsin +3 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Wisconsin over Purdue (9p.m., Tuesday, March 1 ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year Something is not right with Purdue, and I expect Wisconsin to complete this miraculous season and win the Big 10 outright. A win today will all but ensure that happens, as they would just have a home game against Nebraska over the weekend. Purdue has great size, but Zach Edey cannot play many minutes and this team is just not that good at playing defense. Wisconsin has the best player on the floor in Johnny Davis and he will want to make a statement in this game that he is the Big 10 Players of the Year and a lottery pick in the NBA draft come June. Purdue has lost 4 road games in the Big 10 this season and this will be the first time this season the Kohl Center will be rocking with the student section in the game for a full 40 minutes. Wisconsin will enter this game having won 4 straight games (3 of them on the road) and has a remarkable record this season in close games. Wisconsin is finally developing a bench and look for them to complete the regular season as champions on Tuesday. The home team is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in the last 9 games between Purdue and Wisconsin. Purdue is 0-3 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 5 games. Wisconsin is 10-4 ATA in their last 14 games following an ATS win in their previous game. |
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02-26-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Alabama | Top | 71-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #727 South Carolina over Alabama (6p.m., Saturday, February 26 SECN) We have been fading Alabama during much of the conference season and today will be no different. The Tide are not anywhere near as strong as they were last season. They struggle to shoot it well from the arc as well as rebound efficiently. Carolina will enter having won 4 straight games and are starting to play some of their best basketball of the season. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between Alabama and South Carolina. The Gamecocks have covered the spread in their last 5 games. Alabama is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games. |
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02-25-22 | Clippers +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
The Clippers are the disrespected little brother in their own city, and they normally get up big for this matchup. They are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 when the official road team in this matchup. They should have covered in the last meeting but they fell apart late but still won the game. This Lakers team is a mess and we just don’t think they are good or going to turn it around at any point. Nice value in this line tonight. |
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02-24-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 211 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
Off the extended All Star break these two shaky offenses should struggle to put points on the board. We think that both defenses will have a lot of energy and we expect this one to go well under the posted number. Cleveland played some good offensive teams before the break and had some high scoring games, but we think this situation after the long break presents itself to the under. |
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02-19-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -2 | Top | 54-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #644 Iowa State over Oklahoma (2p.m., Saturday, February 19 ESPN+) Oklahoma has had a brutal schedule of late having lost closes games to Texas and Kansas. Now they will be without Elijah Harkless for the rest of the season and fatigue will start to set in for this program. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and will be facing a team that has revenge on their minds. Iowa State has struggled in conference play after running the table in the nonconference portion of the season, but they are coming off a win last time out and should be able to follow that up with two straight on Saturday. Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday. Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing road record. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games between Oklahoma and Iowa State. |
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02-15-22 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 220 | Top | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Cleveland is the No. 1 defensive team for points allowed, and they have had two nights off so they should have lots of energy on the defensive end here. This is the highest total the Cavs have faced in ages, and it’s too high in our opinion. Five of the last seven games for Cleveland have gone under the posted number with a combo of an amazing defense and an offense that often leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta has finished under the century mark on offense the last two good defensive teams they played (Dallas and Boston), and we don’t see them going off offensively against this Cavs defense. |
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02-12-22 | Magic +16.5 v. Suns | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Orlando has covered in six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. The Magic have won four of their lasy eight, so they are playing decent basketball right now for a bottom feeder. Whenever you see a spread like this you have to look for a reason to play the underdog. You can cover even in a blowout. Phoenix just played their NBA Finals revenge game against Milwaukee and they have the Clippers on deck, so they probably won’t take this game too seriously as they can win without 100% effort. |
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02-12-22 | Arkansas +5.5 v. Alabama | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #603 Arkansas over Alabama (12p.m., Saturday, February 12 SECN) We will continue to fade Alabama, as they get to much respect from the oddsmakers this season. This sounds like a broken record, but they do not rebound or shoot the 3 well this season. Beating Ole Miss is not an accomplishment, and they will face a red hot team in Arkansas on Saturday morning. Arkansas has won 9 straight games and they have the best player on the floor in JD Notae. Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Alabama is 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games. Like Arkansas to win this game straight-up. |
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02-06-22 | Celtics -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Boston has won four straight and six of seven. This team has dealt with all sports of adversity this season to start following their very disappointing season last year. But they seem back on track lately, and they are healthy now. Boston has been one of the best betting teams of the last five or so years, before last season happened. But when they are on track they can easily cover a large road spread like this against a lousy team on a back-to-back. They have covered six of the last seven in Orlando. |
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02-05-22 | Kentucky +105 v. Alabama | Top | 66-55 | Win | 105 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #791 Kentucky (Money Line) over Alabama (8p.m., Saturday, February 5 ESPN) Kentucky is the second best team in the SEC and getting them as an underdog on Saturday night is too good to pass up. The Cats have won 3 straight games including a dominating performance against Kansas last Saturday. The Tide will be up for this game, but they are a shell of themselves compared to last year. The do not rebound, defend, or shoot the 3 very well this season. They are coming off a blowout loss to Auburn and also lost to Georgia within the last 10 days. Alabama is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Coach Cal and company pull away late to win this game by close to double-digits. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Does Portland have Dame Lillard back? Of course not. This spread doesn’t make sense. Portland has been playing well with a turnstile roster, but we don’t think they deserve to be this big of favorites. OKC just beat Portland – by 18! – the last day of January. Portland scored only 81 points. And they didn’t hit the century mark last time out against the Lakers in one of the worst performances of the season. We expect a low scoring game here, which makes the points for the underdog more attractive, and we will sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well. |
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02-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 110-111 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Clippers have had two nights off, while the Lakers played last night. That rest advantage is crucial during the mid-season slog. The Lakers won last night, but we have to say that might have been one of the most unimpressive wins we have seen in awhile. Both teams played horribly, but the Blazers played one of the worst games of the season and lost by only five points. They took 20 more shots than the Lakers and hit in the mid-30s for shooting percentage. Late in the game their shooting was especially atrocious. So we give more credit to the Blazers for losing than the Lakers winning. Now they face a rested Clippers team that has been playing the most consistent basketball they have played this season. They have had more roster continuity recently and this has been one of the teams in the NBA hit hardest by Covid and injuries. They lost last time out at Indiana on a back-to-back and on the last game of their long road trip. The first game back after a long trip can be tricky, but we like how the Clippers have had two days off. This allowed a day for the players to focus on personal matters before getting back into basketball mindset. The Clippers had covered seven of eight before that loss to Indiana. The Clippers want this game more. This is a one-sided rivalry since the Lakers have bigger rivals but not the Clippers. They are considered the Little Brother in LA, and they normally bring their best performance when playing the Lakers. They have won four straight meetings and covered in five straight, and they have a long term 17-8 ATS mark when listed as the home squad. The Clippers have a better record (barely) despite having worse injury luck. The Lakers were supposed to be championship favorites. The Clippers were going to be lucky to make the postseason. We think this Clippers roster is definitely a playoff team without Kawhi and George, and they are starting to play better and gel together despite the absence of their stars. |
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The Nuggets have been playing well, but they are on their last game of a grueling six-game road trip. From the looks of their performance last night in Minnesota, they are ready to go home. And not only are they on a back-to-back, but they are playing their third game in four nights. They are 1-6-1 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back, so they traditionally don’t play well in these situations. Utah has been a dumpster fire lately because of injuries. Now Ingles is out for the season. They have lost five straight. But four of those losses were to Phoenix (X2), Memphis and Golden State. This isn’t exactly a Must Win Game, but we think they will bring their A Game in order to end this losing streak, and Denver is very susceptible to a blowout because of their travel situation. The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 trips to Utah. |
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02-01-22 | Nevada v. UNLV -1.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #654 UNLV over Nevada (10:30p.m., Tuesday, February 1 FS1) Nevada is a sinking ship at the moment and they will enter this game off yet another blowout loss. This team does not do anything well and they have minor injuries to their star player in Grant Sherfield. The Pack have no quality wins on the season and are playing a team tonight that is desperate for playback on the count. The Rebels have not had good success against Nevada in recent years, but this is a game they have a major edge in talent. UNLV is coming off an impressive win against Colorado State time out and they have the best player on the court in Bryce Hamilton. The favorite is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in the last 12 games between Nevada and UNLV. Nevada is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
These teams haven’t even sniffed this totals number in the last five meetings. We see another game that finishes below 220. In fact, the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio. Golden State comes in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, so we think this could be a letdown spot for them. They still have the No. 1 defense in the NBA for points allowed. |
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01-30-22 | Spurs +13.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is the most points the Spurs have gotten all season as an underdog. We think it’s too many tonight. San Antonio has been one of the better bets in the NBA with a winning ATS record. They do their best work as an underdog. They are 12-6 ATS when getting seven or more points. The Suns are only 5-5 ATS when laying double digits. The Spurs have won two of three and they are playing pretty well right now. We think they keep this one within double digits. |
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01-28-22 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 217.5 | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Both teams are healthy and have been playing well lately, and we see a very competitive game here where both teams get their points. Boston has played very good defense the last two games, holding Sacramento and Washington to 75 and 87 points, respectively. But they are facing a much stronger offense here, and on the road. Atlanta averages over 111 PPG. They are even better at home at 113 PPG. They have scored 110 or more in six of their last seven. They have scored over 120 in three of their last five games. Boston has scored 128 and 116 in their last two games. We think both teams get over 110 here. Four of the last six meetings have gone over the posted number. |
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01-25-22 | Clippers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
The Clippers have covered in three of four games, and we think this is a very winnable game for them. The two big stars are still out for awhile, but the role players are mostly back and this is a pretty talented team even without the Big 2 but they haven’t had a consistent roster yet this season. We think as long as this core group stays healthy that the Clippers will start winning more games and covering more spreads. The Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. |
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01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 221 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
We agree with the oddsmakers that this one has a good chance for a blowout, which would bode well for the under. Both teams are trending to the under. The Jazz have gone under in four straight. The Suns have gone under in five of six. The Suns are one of the stronger under teams on the season, and this team has one of the best defenses in the NBA and they are very underrated in that aspect. The Jazz have failed to reach the century mark in three of their last six games, and we think they might just barely get there tonight as they are missing some key pieces. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix. |
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01-21-22 | Rockets +11 v. Warriors | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Houston is playing with a lot of confidence right now. They have won three of four, all on the road. They will want to put their best foot forward tonight against one of the best teams in the conference. Golden State is coming in on a back to back and they played in OT last night so fatigue will definitely be an issue. This team has not been consistent lately, and they have upcoming games against playoff teams like Utah and Dallas that they will probably give full energy for. We think they might not bring it here. |
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01-21-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They suffer the occasional blowout but they more often than not play it close and lose the game but cover as a big dog. And when they do suffer one of those blowouts, they normally come back strong the next game. They are 4-0 ATS when losing by 10 or more points their previous game. OKC has covered four straight here in Charlotte and they are 17-7-1 in the last 25 meetings. |
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01-19-22 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
After their almost 40 point loss at Denver on Saturday, the Lakers faced their harshest criticism from the media, and even Magic Johnson chimed in on Twitter, bashing the team’s performance. LeBron went on Twitter to say this team will do better and Westbrook had to respond to the Johnson comments. We think this team has circled the wagon a bit and we expect another solid performance after they beat Utah last time out. Sometimes a team just needs a spark, and we think the Lakers found it. The Pacers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games, despite some very generous spreads. The Lakers have been getting the job done against the worst teams as they are 4-0 ATS against sub-.500 teams. And the Lakers are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. |
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01-17-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
The Mavs have been playing very well. But this OKC team just has a knack for covering the spread and keeping games close. They don’t often get the outright win, so that keeps the value with this team. They have covered six of their last eight overall with one push. They are 27-14-1 ATS on the season. The Mavs have been blowing teams out. But this is their third game in four nights even though they were off on Sunday. OKC has the rest advantage because they played Saturday but not Friday. Dallas is 3-6 ATS when laying 5 or more points this season. OKC is 23-11-1 ATS when getting 3 or more points as a dog. OKC is solid defensively and Dallas is a Top 5 defense. The total is low and we expect a low scoring game, which makes every point in a big line more valuable for the underdog. These teams met in OKC about two weeks ago and the Mavs won by nine. The Thunder were without their best player for that game and they are much healthier tonight. We expect a close game. |
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01-16-22 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 224 | Top | 125-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Denver has scored 133 and 140 in their last two games. So the oddsmakers have to post a big number here. But we think this one will go well under the posted number. Denver is on a back-to-back and averages only 105 PPG in these situations. Utah has been giving up a lot of points but this team has traditionally been one of the best defensive teams, and we think they know they need to step up on defense tonight in order to have a chance to win. They are also getting defensive help as Gobert should return tonight. Denver has been playing strong defense and has held 3 of 4 opponents under the century mark. |
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01-15-22 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -1 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #752 Mississippi State over Alabama (6p.m., Saturday, January 15 SECN) The Tide are not the same team that they were last year on either side of the floor. They do not shoot it that well from the arc and they are not defending at the same level either. Alabama has lost two straight games and now face an under the radar team in Mississippi State who is getting back Tolu Smith back for this game. The Bulldogs are a much better team at home, and they will enter off a blowout win against Georgia. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games and the home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games between Alabama and Mississippi State. Alabama is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. Â |
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01-13-22 | Warriors v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 99-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Both teams are trending to the under with three of their last four going under the posted total. Both teams have struggled lately on the offensive end. Golden State has failed to reach the century mark in three of their last four games. Milwaukee averaged around 103 in their last two losses to the Hornets. And don’t forget that Golden State has the No. 1 defense in the NBA. As long as there is no OT here we should beat this total easily. |
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01-12-22 | Rockets v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Spurs are a bit in desperation mode here as they have lost seven of the last eight games. They have played a brutally tough schedule, however. Their last eight games included matchups with: NY and Brooklyn, Philly, Boston, Toronto, Memphis and Utah. They have lost two of their last six games in overtime. Seven of their last eight were on the road. Now they are back home and very much in need of a win. They have the perfect opponent to get it against tonight as the Rockets are of a much lower caliber than most of the Spurs recent opponents. They have lost their last three games by a full 40+ points over the very generous lines they have been given. This looks like another potential blowout but we think a comfortable Spurs lead is all but certain. They have one of the best coaches in NBA history. They have covered five of the last seven meetings in San Antonio. |
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01-11-22 | Thunder +9 v. Wizards | Top | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA and they are decently healthy and they had the night off Monday. No reason they should be getting this many points at Washington, a lousy ATS team that hasn’t been favored by this many points against anyone this season. When they have been a favorite of three or more points, they are 5-10 ATS. OKC has covered in four of their last five games, while the Wizards have failed to cover in three straight. OKC has the rare game where they get blown out of the water, but this is a winnable game for them and we think they put their best foot forward tonight. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin -1 v. Maryland | Top | 70-69 | Push | 0 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #855 Wisconsin over Maryland (7:30p.m., Sunday, January 9 BTN) Wisconsin is the hottest team in the league and will enter Sunday off back-to-back impressive wins against Purdue and Iowa. Maryland has already made a coaching change this season and they have yet to record a win in the Big 10 this season. I just do not trust Danny Manning as a head coach, and they will be up against the best player in the conference and a likely top 10 pick in the NBA draft come June. Wisconsin has won 4 straight games and will move up the ranking likely into the top 10 come Tuesday. Wisconsin is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Maryland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games when they are an underdog. The favorite is 3-1 ATS (1 push) in the last 5 games between Wisconsin and Maryland. |
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01-07-22 | Kings +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Kings are definitely the more healthy team right now. This team has been back and forth and you kind of never know what you are going to get with them on a nightly basis. But they are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, and we think they match up well tonight, especially against this inflated number. This is a winnable game for them. The Nuggets are coming off two consecutive losses, so they aren’t in top form. They also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. |
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01-05-22 | Raptors v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
We like to back a good team after a bad/embarrassing loss, and that is the case here for the Bucks on Wednesday as they suffered an embarrassing home defeat last time out to the Pistons (they were 17-point favorites; we had the Pistons plus the points). That snapped a six-game winning streak. We think the Bucks are in a good spot to bounce back here. Toronto has been playing well but are coming in on a back-to-back. They have done well in these situations, but they become harder as the season wears on. This is also their third game in four nights, while the Bucks are well rested as they have had a much lighter schedule. But Milwaukee should be ultra motivated tonight. A big win here puts that Detroit loss well in the rearview mirror and can be chalked up as a bad night. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Cleveland is by far the best ATS team in the NBA, and they still hold value in the odds as the public bettors are not big on this team with the absence of any big stars. But this team plays great fundamental basketball and strong defense, and they are absolutely a playoff team and one that could put a scare into one of the contenders. They are on a different level then the Pels, and we see another comfortable win SU and ATS here as the odds are in our favor again. |
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12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 214 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Dallas is one of the top under teams in the NBA at 20-10-1 for the under. The oddsmakers are scared to post too low totals with this team, and we will continue to take advantage. They are facing the league’s best offense tonight, but Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they will slow the game down tonight to give themselves the best chance to be competitive, especially with their best offensive player sidelined. These are also two Top 8 defenses, so we don’t expect either team to have a crazy offensive day. We think the most likely two scenarios here are that Dallas slows down the game and plays strong defense to keep this close or that the Jazz blow them out and keep them to a real low score. We think both scenarios play well for the under. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total, and we see that trend continuing here on the Christmas nightcap. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder +15 v. Suns | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Whenever an NBA team is catching this many points, you have to take a look at the underdog and see if there is a good chance they can cover. We can cover this line even in a blowout. And we think the Thunder are primed to cover tonight. OKC is the No. 3 ATS team in the NBA at 19-11 ATS. They are even better than the Suns, who have been great ATS also. Even though the Thunder are on a B2B, they have a favorable injury report tonight (good thing there is no nightlife in OKC!). They are also in good form as they have won three straight SU and covered in four straight ATS. All of those wins came against playoff contenders. This is a letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix played the Lakers last time out, and they are preparing for their rematch against the Warriors on Christmas. So they probably won’t give full effort here against OKC. And we think the Thunder will play hard here against the best team in the NBA. OKC has a strong betting history here as they have covered in seven of the last nine meetings. |
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12-22-21 | Clippers -5.5 v. Kings | Top | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
We like to take a good team after a bad loss. We aren’t sure yet if this Clippers team is a good team or not yet, as they have looked great one night then awful the next. But last game out this team suffered a really embarrassing home loss to the Spurs. The team flat out did not show up to the arena, and Coach Lue made it known he wasn’t happy with the effort. We expect a strong effort here, and Paul George has a game under his belt to get back in the groove. Not to mention the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Sacramento. |
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12-19-21 | Lakers v. Bulls -6 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
The Bulls are as rested as any team in the NBA at this point in the season as their last game was over a week ago. Both teams are still having Covid issues, but the Lakers will also be without AD, who is now out for a month at least. And Chicago is getting some players back in the mix for tonight. The Lakers roster is thin anyways, and chemistry is a major issue here. The Bulls will be excited to get back on the court, and that should be reflected in the final score. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon +7 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #708 Oregon over Baylor (10p.m., Saturday, December 18 ESPN2) On paper this is a pick’em game. Oregon may have better talent, but they have not played like it so far in 2021-2022. That being said, I just do not see them getting run off their homecourt by a team playing their first true road game of the season. Oregon has looked awful at times this season, but they are 5-1 at home and Coach Altman knows the importance of this game. Baylor played their best game of the season last time out against Villanova (a team that may be vastly overrated), but I think that works to our advantage in this game. They are not as talented as they were last year, and it is hard to imagine they can play that well again against a desperate team. Laying points on the road is always tough and I feel this game will go down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes out on top. |
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12-18-21 | Cavs -2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 119-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Cleveland has covered in three straight games. And it looks like they have another juicy line here for Saturday. They are well rested, while the Bucks are coming in on a B2B. The Bucks are likely to be shorthanded again tonight, while the Cavs are relatively healthy. Not only did the Bucks play last night, but they went to OT where they lost in New Orleans. This is just a bad spot for the home team and we think Cleveland will keep the momentum going tonight. |
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12-16-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Philly hasn’t been playing great basketball lately, and they are on a back-to-back, but this is a great chance for a win for them and they are the kind of team that can take advantage. The Nets have seven players out for Covid protocols right now and they had to sign someone off the streets to get to the league minimum of eight players to play this game. The situation is so dire and we doubt we will see Durant play super heavy minutes here. So the Sixers have a great chance for a pretty easy win, and we had them laying five points here in our handicapping. They have lost three of four so a win is important. The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, and we don’t expect things to go well for them tonight with this very limited roster. |
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12-15-21 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We have been taking a lot of Dallas unders lately but not even enough. That’s because the Mavs have hit seven straight unders. And the Lakers have hit four straight. So the trends are pointing in the right direction. The Lakers have been playing very good defense lately and their offense has been inconsistent. Dallas had been better defensively and worse offensively. We think this total should have been in the 210s, so the value is here. Also, both squads have important players on the injury list, so don’t wait for this bet because the line could plummet down. |
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12-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Clippers | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Both teams have key players that may or may not miss this game. But the Suns have been playing amazing team basketball all season and they are better built to weather the storm of injuries than the Clippers, a team still very much trying to figure things out. LA has been playing better recently, but they don’t seem to be a match for the Suns, and this spread is more than fair for the visitors. And, also, even though Pat Bev doesn’t play for the Clippers any more, Chris Paul will be motivated against his old team because of history and also that Pat Bev shove in the back in the postseason last year. |
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12-12-21 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
The Nets have had trouble here in recent meetings as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five in Detroit. Harden for the Nets will be out for rest, and that tells us that the Nets aren’t taking this game too seriously. Brooklyn is 3-8 ATS in this spread range they see themselves in tonight, and they are just 2-4 ATS on the road against sub-.500 teams. That shows us that this team loses focus in situations like this. Detroit is a bad team but they play hard and they have a habit of covering as a decent sized underdog. We expect a close game here tonight. |
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12-11-21 | Arizona v. Illinois +3 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #672 Illinois over Arizona (5p.m., Saturday, December 11 FOX) Not sure why this line keeps going up. Illinois has gotten back on track after a rough start and will enter this game having won 5 straight games. Arizona is perfect on the season, but their level of competition has not been great thus far and this is a major step up in class. Arizona is 16-35 ATS (1 push) in their last 52 games played on Saturday. The Wildcats had issues getting to Champaign having to uber from Indianapolis and that will also be a factor in this game. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
It would seem that many things would point to a solid bet on OKC here. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA, and the Lakers are one of the worst. OKC is coming off two wins, and the Lakers are coming in on a back-to-back on the road after losing last night in Memphis. The Thunder have won both games against the Lakers this season. But it’s that last point in why we like the road team so much tonight. This is a game we have had circled for awhile, and the line certainly set up nicely for us. This is a double revenge scenario for the Lakers, who have been playing much better overall since they lost those two games to OKC. A lot of times teams forget about random games from months ago, but we doubt the Lakers forgot about those two losses. Those are brought up all the time by fans and media in criticisms of the Lakers. LA played a stinker last night in Memphis. They lost by double digits. We get the feeling they were looking ahead at this double revenge spot. And OKC has won two straight after a long losing streak and we don’t see them giving top effort tonight. Lakers by 7+! |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 222.5 | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
These are two Top 8 offensive teams in the NBA this season. We think both teams will get their points. It doesn’t take a lot of energy to score, but it does to play defense, and the Grizzlies are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. We expect the Lakers to be able to put up a big number on offense here as they have been playing well lately, and we have no doubt the Grizzlies can add the rest to get this one over the number. |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
The Cavs are a team we targeted early in the season as a serious ATS threat, and they have been just that, with an 18-7 ATS mark that is one of the best in the NBA. And this team can really keep going strong all season as they are not a popular team with bettors with no superstar players. But this team plays strong team basketball and lock-down defense, which is a great recipe for ATS success. This team certainly looks like a playoff team and a team on the rise. The Bulls are right behind the Cavs on the ATS leaderboards. But they will be missing some players tonight, and depth is already an issue with this team. DeRozan is out because of Covid protocols, and they are missing some role players as well. The Cavs have covered eight straight games, but they lost two in a row to the Jazz and Bucks. This is a great spot for them to get back on the winning track, and we see a comfortable win here. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #872 Iowa over Illinois (7p.m., Monday, December 6 FS1) Iowa needs this game to avoid dropping both early conference games. Illinois has not played all that well this season and most of their damage has come at home. They have not won any true road games this season and I am not sure if they will be able to keep pace with Iowa in this game in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are a top 4 team in scoring this season and if they hit that number today, they should win this game by double-digits. Illinois is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Monday. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between Illinois and Iowa. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games as well between Illinois and Iowa. |
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12-04-21 | Spurs +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
We just think this is a huge letdown spot for the Warriors after they snapped the Suns winning streak last night. They played two straight against the Suns and also had a game against the Clippers, who are more of a rival than the Spurs, who aren’t really moving the needle from an excitement standpoint at the moment. But the Spurs have won three straight and covered in four of five games, and we see a competitive game here tonight. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
We rarely take the Lakers for expert picks. They are normally shaded by the oddsmakers and they are normally one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA. But bettor confidence is down for them at the moment, and we had them laying five in this game tonight in our NBA handicapping. The Clippers just look lost lately. They were beaten soundly in their last two games – by the Kings and Pelicans, two of the worst teams in the NBA. The Lakers have been more competitive lately and they have won three out of four, and they will have their full complement of the Big 3 tonight. The Clippers have been playing very bad defense, and we see the Lakers cruising to an easy win here. |
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12-01-21 | Texas Tech v. Providence +3 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #716 Providence over Texas Tech (8:30p.m., Wednesday, December 1 FS1) Just believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. Texas Tech has a new coach and they have played a terrible schedule thus far in 2021. It is really embarrassing that they have played six cupcakes at home. Providence is 6-1 on the season with a victory at Wisconsin and their only loss coming at Virginia. Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games. Providence is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a rapid revenge spot for the Thunder as these teams played Monday and the Rockets blew out OKC in Texas. Now we have a venue change where OKC is at home, and we think they are the better team despite the records by a considerable margin. At 13-7, OKC is one of the better ATS teams in the NBA. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, so they are playing above oddsmaker expectations. Houston is just not a good team and they don’t handle success well as they are 2-9 ATS after a SU win. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings in OKC. |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for the Nets, who have been playing as well as any team in the NBA lately. They are well rested here after having two nights off after a big win over Boston on Wednesday, while the Suns are on a back-to-back. They played a physical Knicks team last night. Phoenix has been playing extremely well overall lately, but they have had a very busy schedule this week and this road trip will start to wear on them. Brooklyn has had a lot of success in this series as they are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. And since these teams don’t see each other often, that trend stretched back for years. |
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11-26-21 | Celtics -3 v. Spurs | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
Boston had been playing very well recently until they ran into a hot Brooklyn team and had kind of a bad loss on Wednesday. We think that was just a hiccup and this is a great spot for them to bounce back and get on track. Boston has found their defense and they have probably been playing some of the best defense in the NBA throughout the last 10 or so games before the Brooklyn loss. We expect them to be focused here against a very beatable opponent, and this line is more than fair laying a small number on the road. Boston has bounced back well after a loss as they are 4-0 ATS after losing a game. Â |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks UNDER 214 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The Lakers need any win they can get right now and they didn’t give themselves the best chance to get that win tonight with LeBron James getting suspended. He just came back into the lineup, and the Lakers really needed him. We think the Knicks will dominate this one. They are back to playing their brand of defense that we have gotten used to. Their last seven games have gone under as a result. Their offense hasn’t been dynamic enough to put up a big number here, but their defense has been good enough to contain the Lakers offense. |
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11-22-21 | Magic +13 v. Bucks | Top | 92-123 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
These teams played Saturday, same venue, and the Bucks won by only 9. Milwaukee is not in playoff form right now, but they keep getting lined by the oddsmakers like they are. The Bucks haven’t covered a spread in five games. They are 1-7 ATS at home. The Magic aren’t a very good team. But this is a revenge spot against a familiar opponent where they just played and kept the game within punching distance. We think there’s a great chance this game is even closer than the Saturday game. |
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11-21-21 | Lakers -7 v. Pistons | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
We think that this is a good spot for the Lakers to get back on track, on the road vs. a bad team. Going against the Lakers this season has been very profitable as they are bad ATS. But Detroit has been just about as bad. The difference is that the Lakers lines are shaded, while the Pistons lines have been generous. LeBron has had a game back to get his footing, and this team needs a big win bad. We think they get it tonight. |
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11-19-21 | Thunder +13 v. Bucks | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Bucks have been a poor ATS team to start the season, and especially recently. This team seems to be in a bit of a funk to start the season, and they are no where near championship form that we saw over the Summer. But they are being lined as such. The Thunder are becoming a good ATS underdog. They have cashed six of eight tickets. They are gelling well as a young team and playing solid team basketball. They are healthy here and should bring their A Game against the champs to keep this one within double digits. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #760 Ole Miss over Marquette (7p.m., Thursday, November 17 ESPN2) The Golden Eagles are sky high coming off a victory at home against Illinois, who was without Kofi Cockburn. Watching that game on tv, I saw a poorly officiated game that greatly favored Marquette down stretch. That will not happen in this game and karma will likely strike back at them. Marquette is in a major rebuild under Shaka Smart and they struggled to put away SIUE and New Hampshire in their first two games. Ole Miss returns 4 starters from last season and should challenge for an NCAA Tournament big come March. They have not played anyone this year but will win this game by double-digits. Marquette is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-17-21 | Lakers +9 v. Bucks | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
The Lakers have been bad, but we think this is too many points. The Bucks aren’t exactly in mid season form. They are 6-8 ATS on the season. They have covered only three of their last 10. The Lakers need a win badly, and we think they will play hard against the Bucks. They probably have to feel a bit disrespected also since this is their biggest line as an underdog in a while. Plus, knowing that LeBron is coming back soon might give this team a jolt. |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets -3 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Both teams are hot, but we think the Warriors record and recent results can be taken with a grain of salt. This team has had one of the easiest schedules in the NBA and it has been very home heavy as well. This is only their third road games outside of the state of California. They are facing their toughest opponent of the season, on the road, and we think this spread is short tonight. Might the Warriors be as good as their record indicates? Possibly. They certainly have some talent on the court. But we will have to see how they perform consistently on the road where things are a lot tougher in the NBA. We think there’s a great chance Brooklyn wins this one by 7+. |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
Bad spot here for the road team against the surging Clippers. LA is well rested with Friday off, while the Timberwolves are coming in on a back-to-back after playing the Lakers on Friday in a game they probably wanted more than this one. This is the first back-to-back of the season for Minnesota, and it’s a game we don’t see going well for them. These teams have already played twice and the Clippers dominated both matchups. |
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10-29-21 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
It’s a bit scary in today’s day and age to go under on a total this low, but if any game had the chance to finish under 200, this is it. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Magic have finished under 100 in three of their five games this season. Toronto has done the same in two of their five games. The Magic should have a very tough time reaching the century mark tonight. The Raptors have been playing lights out defense to start the season. Only one of their opponents have scored more than 100 points, and every team they have played is better offensively than the Magic. In the last 10 meetings, Orlando has toped 102 points only once, and they finished under 100 in seven of those matchups. We see them having a tough time reaching 100 tonight, and Toronto doesn’t have a dynamic enough offense to put up a big point total here. |
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10-22-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 115-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Spoiler alert! We will be betting Boston a lot this season. This team has been one of the most dependable betting teams in the NBA for many years before taking a step back last season in what was a very strange season for them. But they reshuffled the administration decks and we expect a much stronger effort from them this season. Toronto really looked bad in their first game and they managed only 83 points against Washington. They face a much stronger defense tonight. |
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10-21-21 | Clippers v. Warriors -3 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
The Warriors were very impressive on Opening Night as they beat the Lakers handily on the road, and now they face the other NBA title contender from the city of Los Angeles, and this time in their home opener. The Clippers have had their number lately, but we expect this one to go the other way. Kawhi Leonard is out, of course, until March at the earliest. So they will have to make due without him, and it might take some time for this team to get on the same page. Their depth will take a hit tonight as Batum and Ibaka are out tonight, as well as some role players. This game is a divisional and regional rivalry, and the crowd should be pumped tonight. We just see the Warriors winning this one comfortably as we see them being really good this year and they have a more stable team right now while LAC is a work in progress with rotations and roster and such. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #511 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Tuesday, July 19 ABC) Just do not believe Phoenix will go this entire series without winning (or at least covering) one road game. Phoenix could not stop Milwaukee at all during the second and third quarters on Saturday and still had the ball with a chance to win it late in that game. Phoenix is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on Tuesday. Despite losing the last three games, the Sunday are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between Phoenix and Milwaukee. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #510 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 17 ABC) Homecourt has been the play in all 4 games thus far and look for that to continue on Saturday night in the desert. Role players tend to play better at home and expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Phoenix gave away the game on Wednesday and I see them jumping out early and holding the lead tonight. Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Milwaukee. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #508 Under in Phoenix @ Milwaukee (9p.m., Wednesday, July 14 ABC) All three games have been blowouts and that does not bode well for the over to hit. Surprised this total is in the 220s and thus we will play the under on Wednesday. The Bucks have played under the posted total in 7 over their last 11 home games (1 push). The Suns have gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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07-11-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -103 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #505 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (8:05p.m., Sunday, July 11 ABC) We have used the Suns in both games thus far and won easily. Things will be different in Milwaukee, but I just do not feel the Bucks should be favored by this many points. Milwaukee is still struggling from the arc, and you just cannot win games in this day and age without strong three-point shooting. Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Suns are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games against the Bucks. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #504 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Thursday, July 8 ESPN) The Suns dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals and one never got the impression in that game that Milwaukee was going to cover the spread let alone win the game. The Bucks just have not been shooting it well from the arc on a consistent basis and for them to beat Phoenix they must make shots from the three-point line. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Phoenix in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is a strange NBA Finals for sure. Milwaukee belongs here, but not sure about the Suns. Phoenix was a team that we thought would flame out in the postseason after a brilliant regular season. They were lacking playoff experience. Teams need to take their lumps with some postseason heartbreak to eventually get to this point. But here we are. The Suns were benefited by a bunch of injuries to key players in the Western Conference Playoffs. They had one of the easier paths to the championship we can remember. But they did earn their postseason experience. They have gotten here by being the healthiest team in the playoffs. They gained a lot of confidence in the postseason, and we think that will be on display here. |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The last game was high scoring and the Bucks did what they wanted offensively. But if Atlanta puts together another performance like that on the defensive end, they will be going home after this game. This is an underrated defensive team, and we think they step up and put it all on the line here tonight. Most of the games in this series have gone well under the posted number, and we think both teams will lock down on the defensive end as this is the biggest game of the series to date for both teams. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
We have some major injuries on both sides here but the Bucks have the more complete roster, and the more experienced one. We think they will take the Next Man Up strategy and run with it here to a comfortable win. Even if Young plays for the Hawks, we just don’t see him being effective as he will be rushed back too soon. We have seen it time and time again where they rush a player back and he hinders the team more than he helps. Regardless, we think the Bucks will circle the wagons here and take the win and move one step closer to the Finals. |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 | Top | 130-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Clippers got hot in Game 5 and they were able to score 116. We don’t see that happening again tonight, and we think this will be a low scoring game with both teams barely getting over the century mark. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This is a must win for both teams, and we think they will dig in defensively. The oddsmakers have adjusted the total upwards from Game 5, but we think they should have gone the other way. We will take advantage of their error tonight. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Game 1 of this series went over, but the rest of the games have been fewer points than the last. We are pretty sure they hit the bottom of the barrel with Game 4 as 164 total points were scored. The oddsmakers adjusted a few points here, but it’s not enough. The Clippers are one of the most overworked teams in postseason history as they have played every other day all month and had some incredibly tough games along the way. They just looked exhausted in several spots in this series, especially Game 4 when they had tons of chances to take the lead but couldn’t. There’s a great chance both teams will shoot much better than they did in the last game, but we just don’t see either team breaking out on offense. This has possibly been one of the most physical series of the postseason, and the Suns are probably fatigued as well. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and we think that will be on display here again in Game 5. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 222 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Chris Paul should be back here and controlling the offense. He doesn’t move the ball up the court quickly and he sets up the offense more deliberately. This is the most important game of the season for both teams. If the Clippers lose, they are done. If Phoenix loses, then the Clippers are firmly back in this one. We expect both defenses to be at their best, and these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The last game was very low scoring and went way under the total, but the oddsmakers didn’t adjust the number enough. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in LA. |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
The Suns had too much time off here. We think that, and the fact that Chris Paul is out for this game with Covid, has thwarted the Suns momentum. The Clippers have all the momentum here and are coming off one of the best second-half performances in playoff history. This team is really clicking on all cylinders, and they have shown they can play at an elite level even with Kawhi out of the lineup. Plus, they have some hope for Kawhi to be back at some point as he was seen at Game 6 against Utah without a brace and walking without a limp. That has led some to speculate that he could be back at some point in this series. These Clippers are more battle tested than the Suns in this postseason as Phoenix had a very easy path with the injured Lakers and the hobbled Nuggets. The Clippers had a tougher path and they have been playing better with each passing game after the first couple games in Dallas. They are getting contributions from throughout the roster, and Paul George has stepped up into the Top Dog role with Kawhi out. We just see the Suns having some problems getting into the flow of the game without Paul and with a week off from their last game. The Clippers won and covered in two of three meetings this season, and longer term they have covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings. We think they have a great chance to win outright here. |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -131 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Nothing ever comes easy for the Clippers. Almost all their playoff series go to seven games. They have never been to the conference finals in franchise history. In Game 5 Paul George and the role players stepped up while the Jazz went cold in the second half, and Utah was still in a position to win in the last couple minutes. Just don’t see the Clippers replicating that performance and we think the Jazz will pull away in this one in the fourth quarter. |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 220 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Not one of the five games in this series went over the posted total. However, there has been a massive swing in the totals line in this series. This is the lowest total for the series so far. This one is almost 20 points less than the Game 1 total! We think now there is value on the over. Harden is back and he had one sloppy game under his belt but he should play better in this game. These are the Top 2 offensive teams in the NBA this season. This is going to be a hard-fought battle from both sides and we think both teams will get their points here against an overadjusted total. |
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06-16-21 | Clippers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It was announced this AM that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. This is a major blow to the Clippers as they had seized all the momentum in this series and were looking in good shape to possibly steal a rare road win in Utah tonight. But we think they still have a chance. Paul George has broken out of his slump, and if he plays hero ball tonight, he can definitely have the Clips in a position to win this one. LA has its deepest team in franchise history, and they have experience playing without Kawhi. Just don’t see the Clips getting blown out here. |
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