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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-16 | Wizards v. Suns OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
We expect a very high-scoring game here as both teams like to play fast. The Wizards can really explode for big offensive nights against lousy defensive teams like this. Case in point when they scored 111 on Sacramento lately and 129 on the Timberwolves. We think they can see one of these types of nights against the Suns. Both teams will be moving the ball up and down the court. That will benefit both offenses. The Suns have been loose with the ball lately and the Wizards should convert many turnovers into points, which is why we think they will be close to the 120 territory tonight. We don’t see the home team having any problems getting to the century mark with the swift pace and the Wizards will probably just try to win the track meet here and save the defensive intensity for the Clippers on Sunday. |
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03-31-16 | Bulls v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This game is a must-win for both teams but we think the Rockets are in a better position for a big win here at home on Thursday night. The Bulls are on the outside looking in for the playoffs in the east while the Rockets are one of three teams with 37 wins vying for the last two playoff spots in the west. Even though these teams have almost identical records the Rockets seem to be on the way up and we think they will make the playoffs while the Bulls have all sorts of problems right now and this is a team trending down. We don’t think the Bulls will be in the postseason. Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson are banged up tonight and will probably not be at 100% while the Rockets are pretty healthy. Houston has won two of three and beat the Cavs on the road last time out, and even though LeBron didn’t play in that game they should come in here with a lot of confidence. Even though Chicago was off on Wednesday this will be their third game in four nights and this team just doesn’t have great morale right now and they recently had an internal meeting after a blowout loss at Orlando and that didn’t produce any positive results as they went out and lost at home to Atlanta the next game out. Chicago has dropped four of their last five overall and we see them trailing off in the fourth quarter here since this team has played a lot in the last few nights and we think there is a great chance for a Rockets double-digit win here. |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -7 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for a double-digit blowout by the home team. The Bucks are a full 10 games better than the Suns in the win column and they have had a disappointing season and fallen below expectations. But they are the much better team here in this matchup. The Bucks have had a tough stretch lately. They have lost five straight. They have had an incredibly tough schedule, however, since all of their last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today. But that just means we are getting a much better line here than if this team has had some better results on the scoreboard. After losing five straight they have to give a very strong effort here at home. The Suns have had a more favorable schedule lately that has seen them cover some games. This team plays hard despite a lack of talent. But we don’t see them getting up for this game against an out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a playoff team. The Bucks have been very solid in this pointspread range as they are 8-4 ATS of a favorite of 7.5 or fewer points. This is a good chance for the Bucks to get back on track and they have had three days off to prepare for this game and rest, and there’s no reason to think we won’t see the best effort from Milwaukee tonight. |
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03-29-16 | Hornets -11.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The Hornets already beat Philly by 20 on this same court earlier this month and we don’t see why this one will be any different. Charlotte is quietly playing some of the best basketball in the Eastern Conference and this team continues to be underrated. In fact, they won both meetings in this series by 20 or more points. Philly has covered three straight, but those were all on the road. This team is just 15-20-1 ATS at home this season. They are often overvalued at home where most teams have a great home-court advantage. We just don’t see that big of an edge for Philly at home with the apathetic fans and not many more wins (6) than they have on the road (3). This is the first game back after a four-game road trip for Philly, and that is traditionally a bad spot for a young team like this that’s not mentally tough. Charlotte has had a couple days off and we expect a big game from them tonight. |
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03-28-16 | Celtics v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 90-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers have won two straight and they looked very impressive vs. the Nuggets yesterday. Even though they are on a back-to-back they played very early Sunday in the matinee and this is the latest game on the board Monday so they will have plenty of time to recharge. Of course, Doc Rivers used to coach for the Celtics and by all accounts he is very well liked by his Clippers players and there’s no doubt they will want to play hard for him against his old team. And no doubt the Clippers are a lot better team than the Celtics and this line indicates home-court advantage and not much more. Even though Blake Griffin isn’t back on the court yet, he will be soon and we think that gave the Clippers an extra spark on Sunday and we think that will carry over here. The Celtics have had a very easy schedule lately that has masked some of their deficiencies but we don’t think this team is in top form right now. |
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03-25-16 | Raptors v. Rockets | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
We think the Raptors are the much better team in this matchup and we expect them to take care of business here on the road. These teams played earlier this month in Toronto and the Rockets scored a big road win. Revenge doesn’t factor into our handicapping much for NBA but it does play into things when the previous matchup was recent like this one. But other than that game Toronto has covered in four of the last six meetings. This team is very solid on the road and they actually have the same amount of wins on the road that Houston has at home. Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss at Boston and they will be eager to play better here against a very beatable opponent. The Rockets have lost three straight and are just not playing well right now. And this team is also one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season. |
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03-24-16 | Duke v. Oregon -3 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #816 Take Oregon over Duke (Thursday 10:05 pm TBS) It is not too often you will find the Blue Devils as an underdog this early in the tournament but it is for good reason on Thursday night. Oregon has been playing outstanding basketball of late and they have the depth and size to really hurt this Duke team. The Ducks have won 10 straight games and only a couple of those games have been competitive. Oregon is better at both ends of the floor and I just cannot see Duke winning this game unless they get hot from the three-point line. Duke is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament Games. |
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03-24-16 | Pelicans v. Pacers -12.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
The Pacers have dominated this series with nine straight wins. They have covered in eight straight meetings covering more than four years time. The Pelicans will be without their three best players here. Tyreke Evans is out for the season. Anthony Davis has been recently shut down. Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely and is likely to be shut down soon. When Jrue Holiday is your go-to man, you know you have problems. The Pacers are in the thick of the logjam in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to keep winning in order to solidify their position. They have a big chance to create some separation here with this game and also a road game at Brooklyn on Saturday. The Pelicans have not played well as a big underdog, cashing in just 30 percent of those games with a 3-7 ATS mark. This team stunk even when it was healthy but without these key players and having Davis shelved for the remainder of the season, what motivation does the rest of the team have to rise up here against an out-of-conference opponent? Healthy Pacers win big here. |
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03-23-16 | Clippers +10 v. Warriors | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The Clippers are one of the few teams that match up well with the Warriors. They are the last team to beat Golden State in a playoff series and this is their biggest rival. They have covered in four of the last six meetings and we love them getting these big points tonight. We think this will be a close game. The Clippers have lost four of six and haven’t been playing well but they always get up for this matchup and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight as this will be their only chance to avoid a Warriors sweep on the regular season. Golden State didn’t look very good in their last two games in a loss at San Antonio and a close win at Minnesota. It’s hard for a team to keep up that killer instinct all season long and this team looks a bit vulnerable right now. The Clippers are one of the teams that has what it takes to win at Oracle. Not saying they will win here, but we think this will be a very competitive game. |
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03-22-16 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 202 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone well over the posted number. The Grizzlies are playing faster with all the injuries they have dealt with lately. Their offense is playing well and they have gone over 102 in three of their last four games. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and we don’t see any problem with the Grizzlies getting well over the century mark tonight. Memphis is on a back-to-back here and their defense should not be up to its normal level, especially on the road. The over is 13-3 in the Grizzlies last 16 games against teams with a record below .400 because those teams normally don’t play any defense and the Grizzlies offense is better than perceived by the public and therefore the numbers are normally too low in these situations. We think that is the case tonight. |
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03-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Suns OVER 204 | Top | 103-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Memphis played really well last time out against a better defensive team than this one they face tonight as they put up 113 on the LA Clippers. They played really fast in that game and even though they are dealing with a lot of injuries the lineups they had on the floor and the pace worked for them and we see no reason they change it up tonight. The Suns are a team that likes to run, too, and the pace here should be fast for both teams. The bookies keep the Grizzlies totals low because of this team’s reputation as a defensive club but the over is 39-30-1 for them this season. The Suns have won two straight against the Grizzlies and they put up 111 and 109 points, so we think they will be able to score here. We see both teams getting over 100 here and there is a good chance both teams get well over the century mark as both meetings have gone well above the posted number. |
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03-20-16 | Jazz v. Bucks -1 | Top | 94-85 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
These teams are pretty even except for the fact that the Bucks are really good at home (21-13) and the Jazz are really bad on the road (11-23).Milwaukee is quietly playing very well right now. They have won four of their last five games. Utah has won three of four, but their road victory in that stretch was over struggling Sacramento and they showed their true road colors last night in a loss to also-struggling Chicago. So Utah isn’t good on the road and they have to play a back-to-back here on the road in an earlier-than-normal start. And Milwaukee is well rested as they have had two nights off and have generally played a very light schedule lately. The Bucks can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if they lose this game and we expect them to play strong at home in what is a bad spot for the visitors. |
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03-19-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Golden State is mortal on the road where they have lost six games this season. The Spurs are immortal at home where they are 34-0 this season. This is a major revenge spot for the Spurs after their beat down in the Bay Area in January. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor for us in the NBA but when it’s a team like the Spurs getting beat up like that you know they will have a chip on their shoulder. We are helped here in the fact that the Warriors have a back-to-back here. They used a lot of energy in their big win last night in Dallas and they are going to need everything they have here. And not only are the Warriors on a back-to-back but they have a couple key injuries as Bogut and Iguodala will both miss this game so they aren’t at full strength while the Spurs are completely healthy with a blank injury list. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings and we love their chances for a signature win tonight. |
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03-18-16 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 214.5 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Get ready for a barnburner here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and we expect a glorified game of street ball here with no defense being played whatsoever for teams that are fighting for the most balls in the NBA Draft lottery and not much else. Do these teams even want to win this one? NBA teams can always score, but defense takes effort. And we don’t expect to see any effort here tonight. The Suns allow 100+ pretty much every game but lately they have allowed 116+ in three of their last five games. The Lakers are a tad better on defense this season as they allow only 107 per game. We think both teams here will allow more than their season average and this total should have been in the 220s. Neither of these offenses is that good, but when there is a total lack of D even the scrubbiest of NBA players can score in bunches. |
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03-17-16 | Wizards -9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Sixers are always overvalued at home. This team is 13-19-1 at home this season. The oddsmakers give them too much credit for home-court advantage. At 6-27 at home the fans don’t have a lot to cheer about. So Philly is getting some extra credit from the oddsmakers for being at home here. The Wizards are also getting dinged for being on a back-to-back. We don’t think those two factors will matter and we expect a big game from the Wizards here. The dog days of the summer are over. The Wizards are a good team that has been a disappointment this season. They are currently in the 10th position in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, a couple games back from the eight seed. They can’t overlook a game like this and take the night off like they have so many times this season. They need to win and win big here. Being the eight seed in the east is not a death sentence like in the west as the east is pretty wide open this season. But the Wizards have to make their playoff push now. And this team has been playing excellent basketball. They beat the Bulls by 21 last night and the Pistons by 43 on Monday. This team is healthy, unlike the Sixers who stink with a full roster but are really banged up now, and they are playing incredibly well on offense. That’s a bad sign for the Sixers, who have given up 256 points in their last two games. The Sixers don’t have much reason to play better than they have been tonight and the Wizards have every reason to win this one big. Oh yeah, and the Wiz Kids are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Philly. |
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03-17-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Purdue -9 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #742 Take Purdue over Arkansas Little Rock (4:30 pm TBS) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Purdue is one of the most physical teams in the country and their size will be too much for the Trojans to overcome. UALR played in a weak one bid league this season and they have yet to see a team as big as Purdue. The Trojans play a very similar style as does the Boilermakers, both rely on defense and that fits right into Purdue’s strength. UALR averages just 33.8 rebounds per game (286th in the country) and Hammonds and company will fest on the backboards on both ends of the floor. Purdue comes in with a chip on their shoulder as they gave away the Big 10 Tournament Championship Game by failing to execute down the stretch. The Trojans played just two teams this season that made NCAA Tournament (Texas Tech & Tulsa both bubble teams). The only question is how well Purdue will shoot the basketball because of they can find the touch from long range they will win this game by 15-18 points. When Purdue wins, it tends to come by double digits. |
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03-16-16 | Clippers +3 v. Rockets | Top | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry now after last year’s playoff series that saw the Rockets come back from 3-1 down in the series and down big late in Game 5 to come back and win it in Game 7. It has been tough going lately for the Clippers who have been blown out in three of their last four games. But those games were all against teams that were very strong in OKC, San Antonio and Cleveland. The Cavs game was an off game and the Spurs game was very close heading into the fourth quarter before the Spurs started hitting all their shots and the Clips went cold. But they face a step down in competition here and the Rockets aren’t as good as they have been in the past. This team has been a very poor betting team this season at 30-37 ATS. They are often overvalued here at home where they are 13-19 ATS, and we feel that is the case tonight. LA is 8-5 straight up on back-to-backs this season so we are not too worried about fatigue. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a loss so they normally bounce back strong. After two blowouts and facing a lesser opponent they will likely go all out tonight to get a win here. We actually have the Clippers as a slight favorite in this one and even if they do lose we just don’t see a blowout here tonight. So the spread could come into play if they don’t play as well as we expect them to. But we do think they will win this one straight up. The Rockets have not done well against teams that play well on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning road record. |
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03-15-16 | New Mexico State v. St. Mary's OVER 128 | Top | 56-58 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #564 Take Over in New Mexico State @ Saint Mary’s (11 pm ESPN 2) I always like to take the over in first round games of the NIT. Coaches tend to be more laid back and not try and micromanage each game and that will be the case again on Tuesday. Both of these teams are defensive minded but each has shooters and expect them to both score at least 65 points giving us the win with whoever comes out on top. Saint Mary’s has gone over the posted today in 8 of their last 10 games played against team from the WAC. |
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03-15-16 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | Top | 87-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers match up well with the Spurs and they have won three of the last four meetings, including that blowout right after the all-star break. LA played one of their worst games of the season last time out at home vs. Cleveland, but they have been very good after a loss and they will be anxious to put that game behind them with a solid performance here tonight. This is just too many points and a very public line. The Clippers have a pretty bad rap and the public has lost confidence in them since Blake Griffin went down, but this team has been playing overall very well and they are competitive on a nightly basis save for a rare off game. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss. This is the most points the Clippers have gotten all season as a dog and we think there is very nice value on the underdog here. |
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03-14-16 | Pelicans v. Warriors -15 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Golden State has won big and covered in all of the last three meetings and tonight they face a broken and demoralized New Orleans team that has dropped three straight and seen This team is now closer to the bottom of the standings in the conference than the playoff hunt and we think we are going to see some more bad play down the stretch run of the season from this group. They are in way over their heads tonight. Anthony Davis is a great young player, but the key word is “young” and he just doesn’t have enough experience to put this team on his shoulders down the stretch and they don’t have a lot of leader types on this team so this is one to go against down the stretch. The Warriors are getting back to their dominating ways lately and have had a couple blowouts in recent games and we expect to see the best from this team tonight against a very familiar opponent. |
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03-13-16 | Memphis v. Connecticut -5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #888 Take Connecticut over Memphis (3:15 pm ESPN) Besides the players and coaches I just do not believe Memphis wants to win this game and make the NCAA Tournament. That is because they would have to keep their coach for the fans, media, and administration want to replace. We saw yesterday that Connecticut was not tired despite playing in a marathon on Friday and they should have even more energy for this game. The Huskies are not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and thus the cannot afford to take this game lightly. UCONN beat Memphis twice this season including a 20-point victory in Memphis last March. Memphis is not a bid stealer today. Connecticut is 35-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 51 neutral site games. |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a real bad spot for the Pelicans tonight. Not only do they come in on a back-to back after a grueling overtime game last night against physical Memphis, but this will be their third game in four nights. On the other hand, the Bucks have had two nights off to rest and prepare for this game and we think they will come out and play a solid game here. This team has been good at home lately where they have won three of five. One of those losses was to OKC and one was a close one to Indiana. But they face a step down in competition here from those games and we think this is a real good spot for a rested team to do their best work tonight. The Pelicans are just 3-10 on back-to-backs this season and they do not play well in these situations and while both teams are banged up the Pelicans have a worse injury situation and the Bucks are flat out undervalued tonight. |
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03-12-16 | West Virginia v. Kansas -4 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #748 Take Kansas over West Virginia (6 pm ESPN) The final score of the Kansas game was not indicative of how Kansas was in control for 40 minutes and was never in danger of losing that game. West Virginia got a gift from Oklahoma down the stretch and they are certainly playing with house money in this game. That being said Kansas is far and away the best team in the league and they have a big advantage playing this conference tournament in Kansas City. Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and they do not beat themselves. West Virginia will not be able to make enough jump shots to stay close and it will be rock chalk Jayhawk on Saturday evening. Kansas has not only been winning a lot of late they have been covering the spread as well going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. |
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03-11-16 | Knicks v. Clippers -10 | Top | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers have been great at bouncing back from losses lately where they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after a loss. They lost a bad one to OKC last time out, now they are back home against a way inferior opponent and we expect them to play well and win big here. The Clippers have dominated this series the last few years. They have won seven straight meetings by double digits and they have covered in all but one of those, where they missed the cover by just half a point. LA has played a pretty light schedule lately with no back-to-backs and they have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who were off last night but were on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so this will be their third game in four nights. This team just hasn’t been playing well consistently and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight. |
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03-11-16 | George Washington v. St. Joe's -1.5 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #532 Take St Josephs over George Washington (2:30 pm NBCSN) We have collected big with St Joes all season long and will go to the well once again. The Hawks have been in a freefall at the moment losing two straight games to close out the regular season but I expect them to rebound on Friday. Neither team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament and thus the Hawks just cannot go through the motions. St. Joes is not a good match-up for George Washington evident by the fact they beat them by 18 points in the district (GW’s home floor). The Colonials struggled to put away a bad Billikens yesterday and the rested Hawks are ready to attack and jump on them early in this game. George Washington is 0-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played on Friday. St Joes is 19-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Friday. St Josephs is much more physical and that will pay dividends in this game. |
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03-10-16 | Nevada v. New Mexico -3 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #784 Take New Mexico over Nevada (5:30 pm CBSSN) We used this same game over the weekend and easily hit with the underdog Lobos in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. The fact remains that Nevada just cannot shoot the ball well enough this season to beat top teams and will likely be without Marqueze Colman for this game yet again. If the Lobos played with the same effort that Nevada does, they would have won the regular season title. This team has been shaky most of the season but the just have much more talent than does Nevada. New Mexico dominated both of the regular season meetings and it should be no different in Las Vegas. Nevada has never won a conference tournament game in the MWC and the Lobos have had some success in Las Vegas and always bring a big fan base. Nevada is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. |
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03-09-16 | Knicks +2 v. Suns | Top | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns are the worst team in basketball and no way they should be a favorite over anyone right now. In fact, this team is 4-9 ATS when laying four or fewer points this season. Yes, interim coach Earl Watson has this team playing hard and they pulled a couple upsets lately, but this team should suffer in the role of the favorite tonight. The Knicks aren’t very good but they are at least one tier up from the Suns. We had them as a slight favorite in this one, even on a back-to-back. New York is 8-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so we don’t see the lack of rest as such a big deal. The Suns lost their two best players to injury and while this starting unit has some young talent, there is a lot less established talent than with the visitors tonight and the Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, who is the best player by far on the court and a player that can dominate a team like the Suns. The wrong team is favored here. |
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03-08-16 | Hawks v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Stock is down on Utah right now as they have lost five of six games. However, four of those games were on the road and one of the two home games was against the Spurs. This is one of the many NBA teams that is a different team at home than on the road. This team is very good at home and we think they bounce back here in what is a very winnable game. The Hawks have been playing well but they are in the fourth game of a five-game road trip and this trip has seemed to go a little too well for them so we think there is a chance they are due for a bad game. Utah already beat Atlanta on the road this season and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. This game is much more important for the Jazz who are just on the outside of the playoff picture and we think they score a big home win tonight. |
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03-07-16 | Magic v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Warriors suffered a rare loss last night to the LA Lakers. This wasn’t a sign of anything wrong with this team or that they are weakened somehow. They simply had a bad game and some cold shooting. This is a long NBA season and all the best teams will have a game like that now and again. The Warriors make less of a habit of it than most. This is one of the most motivated and driven teams we have ever watched in the NBA and there is no doubt they will play a lot better here tonight against another very inferior opponent. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in back-to-backs and they are one of the best in the league in these situations so it doesn’t bother us in the least that they are playing a B-2-B here. In fact, with their stellar B-2-B results and the fact they suffered such a bad loss last night indicates they are due for a big bounce back here. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Orlando and the Warriors won by 16. They shot better than 60 percent from the field in that game and that is a bad sign for Orlando tonight after the Warriors were cold last night. We expect some very hot shooting here from the home team. Orlando is coming off a near 20-point loss to Phoenix last time out. That is probably the worst team in the NBA right now. This team has just not been playing well lately and their defense is horrible and we think GSW will be very motivated tonight after the bad one on Sunday. We will give the Warriors a mulligan and expect a huge bounce back effort from them tonight. |
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03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons +1 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Portland has been playing really well for the last month or so but since this team has been getting some buzz the odds have been overadjusted on some of their games, and we think that is the case here as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -3.5 and we would have leaned to the home team at that number. So we think there is a ton of value in this current line. This is the last game of a six-game road trip for Portland and they have lost the last two games, so you can tell they are ready to get home. Detroit has lost two straight as well but those were both on the road and one was to the Spurs. Before that they had won and covered four straight, including three double-digit wins (including one vs. Toronto) and also a eight-point road win at Cleveland. This Detroit team is very solid and even though they come in on a back-to-back they are 7-6 ATS in these situations this season so we don’t think it will be a problem. |
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03-05-16 | Hawks v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
We love the way the Clippers have been playing lately and this team seems determined to make up for their slow start on the season. They just keep winning and covering lines, and the bookies have been slow to adjust their lines for this team. LA is well rested here as they have had two nights off and the Hawks come into this one on a back-to-back (6-9 ATS on back-to-backs). The Clippers have done their best work this season as a marginal favorite and they are 14-6 ATS as a favorite of less than six points. Most of those games are here at Staples Center against weaker opponents like is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 7.5 or 8.0, and we think there is some great value with the home team tonight as we think a rested Clippers team takes care of business comfortably in this one. |
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03-04-16 | Wolves v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are trending heavily to the over lately. Ten of their last 12 games have gone over the posted total and a reason for that is that this team has given up any effort on defense. Six of their last nine games have seen the opponent score 110+, and we expect Milwaukee to have a big game on offense and they can basically pick their score tonight. The Bucks are in fine form offensively and recently put up 128 on Houston. They have also given up 100+ in six straight games on defense. We think points will come in bunches tonight and we think both teams get well over the century mark and we think this line is too low for the home team. We think Milwaukee will have a huge night on offense and the T-Wolves will make up the difference to get this one over the posted number. |
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03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Will take a shot with the Suns again here on Thursday night. Yes, Phoenix stinks. But the more they lose the bigger the odds get, and that creates value. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they win a lot of low-scoring games. Hard to trust them to cover the big number here tonight. In fact, this team is just 1-6 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. The Heat have played down to their level of opposition a lot this season at home, and that is why they have had such a bad ATS mark against lousy teams here. The Suns are coming off a really bad effort last time in Charlotte and that loss was one of the worst of the season. But this is an NBA team and they have an interim coach in Earl Watson who will get a better effort out of his team tonight. Of course the Heat are without Chris Bosh right now and that hurts this team’s chances to cover the big number. We don’t think either team will do anything special on offense and expect a low-scoring game here, which makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. |
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03-02-16 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -6 | Top | 73-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #770 Take Fresno State over Colorado State (11 pm CBSSN) This line should be double digits. Colorado State is coming off a tough loss to Nevada in overtime and going back on the road again will do them in. I feel Fresno State is playing the best basketball of anyone in the MWC at the moment and they have a good chance to win the MWC Tournament next week. This team is starting to get healthy and will enter this game having won four straight games. They also have the best player on the court in Marvelle Harris and he is the reason why they can win it all next week in Las Vegas. The Rams are not performed well on the road this season and they have lost four of their last five games (none were against top teams in the league). Colorado State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. |
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03-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -2 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a big look-ahead spot for the Thunder, who play Golden State tomorrow on TNT. That game on Saturday was one of the best of the year and the Thunder lost it in heartbreaking fashion. They have to be licking their chops to get another chance in the Bay Area tomorrow and this game is probably an afterthought to them. The Clippers have been sneaky good lately. They just keep winning games and covering spreads while waiting for Blake Griffin to rejoin the team. They have played well in this series and have covered the last two meetings. This team is 9-2 ATS as a small favorite this season and they normally get the job done in these situations. The Thunder are one of the worst ATS teams this season and we think that this is another spot where they are being overrated. |
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03-02-16 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 192 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
These are two of the Top 5 defenses in the NBA for points allowed and you have to love a total in the 190s here in what looks to be a very low-scoring game. These teams met in Utah in November and the total reached only 182, and we think we could see that same type of game tonight. The Jazz have not played well on offense the last few games, averaging only around 86 per in their last three. This team does not play as well on the road as they do at home. Remember, they are only 9-19 on the road this season. We think both teams will struggle to score but we think Utah will really struggle and expect them to finish around 92 or fewer points. We see the Raptors, a much better overall team and a very good home team, winning comfortably in a low-scoring game. Toronto has covered in five straight meetings here and we see more of the same results on Wednesday. |
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03-01-16 | Suns +12.5 v. Hornets | Top | 92-126 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is way too many points for the Hornets to be laying tonight, even against a team like the Suns. Charlotte has lost two of three, so they are not in good form right now. This is the first home game for them after a long road trip, and that is always a trouble spot for big favorites. The Hornets have not been good as a big favorite this season as they are 3-6 ATS when laying five or more points. They are just 3-5 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams this season. The Suns should come into this game with a lot of confidence after knocking off Memphis at home last time out. They also played the Spurs and Warriors very tough recently and covered in both of those contests. They have had two nights off to prepare for this game so they should be primed to play their best. Phoenix has a very strong history in this series as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte. They have won the last two meetings (and six of the last seven), including one this season in January in Phoenix by nine points. We feel the road team is in a nice position to succeed tonight and they will keep this one within double digits. |
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02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 209.5 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Brooklyn is playing at a speeded-up tempo and the oddsmakers have been slow to react. Six of their last nine games have gone over the posted number since they started running more. Their offense is averaging nearly 105 PPG during that stretch and that is about eight points over their season average. And, of course, a faster pace means more scoring for the offense as well. And that bodes well for a Clippers offense that averages nearly 106 PPG at home on the season. We think the underdog is the clear play here. The Clippers are 4-8 ATS when laying nine or more points this season so they don’t do well against these big lines. The Nets are 11-7 ATS when getting nine or more and they are 11-5 ATS against top competition on the road. They have also covered in seven of the last eight meetings. |
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02-29-16 | Kansas -1.5 v. Texas | Top | 86-56 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #719 Take Kansas over Texas (9 pm ESPN) Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and playing these road games in hostile environments means everything to this team (even more the NCAA Tournament success). This is just too big of a gauntlet for Texas to run and they have already earned a berth into the NCAA Tournament this season. Beating Oklahoma was great, but the Sooners gave away that game letting Texas close on a 25-5 run. Again Oklahoma is soft, Kansas is not. The Jayhawks have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games. |
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02-28-16 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #836 Take Wisconsin over Michigan (6 pm BTN) This game got bumped off of CBS but that just makes it that much stronger for Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing like the second best team in the conference at the moment only behind Michigan State. They are winning home and away and also winning when they play good or play bad. Michigan is coming off two straight road losses and I just do not believe they are playing well at the moment. Their score against Northwestern was misleading and much closer than the nine-point margin would indicate. But the main reason for this selection is that this is just not a typical Michigan team. The Wolverines rely so much on the three point shot and they just do not have the shooters like they have in year’s past. Coach Gard is just moments away from being named permanent head coach and this Badger team has responded in a great way. The Badgers have lost just one game since January 13th and they have the ability to score on Michigan in a variety of ways. Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games. 73% of the overnight money is on Wisconsin and it is for very good reason. The line should be 8.5 and we will pound this short number. |
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02-28-16 | 76ers +9.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Just don’t think that this Orlando team should be laying this many points to anyone. There is value in the visiting Sixers tonight. Orlando just hasn’t been good in the favorite role this season and they are 1-6 ATS when laying five or more points. The Magic are just 6-19 since the new year and that is not the type of team you want to lay big chalk with, even against a team like Philly. But this is a very winnable road game for the Sixers. These teams played less than a week ago and the game was very close throughout. The Magic finally pulled away in the fourth quarter and won by nine (they outscored the Sixers by five in the fourth) but it was a close game throughout, and since these teams played so recently we think that gives the underdog a better chance since they will be able to make adjustments. |
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02-27-16 | Blazers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
No Derrick Rose tonight. No Butler. Of course, no Noah. Without the core of the team this Chicago team is below average. Heck, even with these guys in the lineup this team has been a big disappointment. Even though the Blazers lost last time out vs. Houston this team had won six straight prior to that loss, including a blowout at home against the Warriors. This team has been underrated all season and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and really coming together as a team. The Bulls have been one of the worst ATS teams all season long and this team keeps getting too much respect from the oddsmakers because of the name on the jersey. Unless Rose miraculously plays this line is a gift and even if he does take the court we expect the road team to control this one and score the pretty easy win. |
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02-27-16 | South Carolina +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #569 Take South Carolina over Mississippi State (2:30 pm SECN) The Gamecocks have a gaudy record and they are not as good as their 23-5 record would indicate but they have enough talent to beat Mississippi State in Starkville. Carolina has won two straight games against teams that are ahead of Mississippi State in the standing and already beat the Bulldogs by double digits this season on January 26th. The Bulldogs are improving under first year coach Ben Howland but this will take a major rebuild and moving to the top of the standings will have to wait a couple of years. Mississippi State already has home losses to Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Yes, they played A & M tough this week but this is more a statement of how far the Aggies have fallen compared to how much the Bulldogs have improved. Carolina has not only been winning games they have been covering the spread as well going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games. Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday. The better team just has to win on Saturday and that will happen easily. |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Revenge isn’t normally a big handicapping factor for us when it comes to the NBA, but we think it will come into play big time here tonight in Indiana. Earlier this month, on this same floor, the Hornets came in and embarrassed Indiana with a 22-point win in the first meeting of the season between these teams. There is no doubt Indiana has had this game circled since then. Indiana has been playing very well lately. They will come into this one with a lot of confidence after winning five of their last seven, including a road win at OKC. Charlotte had won five straight recently but they had a momentum killer last time out in a loss at Cleveland where they played very flat the entire game. Once a big streak like that is snapped teams tend to go back to their normal nightly effort. That’s why wins and losses often come in waves in the NBA. Charlotte is one of those teams that is very good at home and really lousy at home. They are just 10-18 on the road. Indiana is 18-9 at home. Indiana has also been very good against teams with winning records when at home as they are 10-4 ATS in these situations. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the home squad tonight. |
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02-25-16 | Spurs -3 v. Jazz | Top | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Spurs have by far the best defense in the NBA this season as they hold opponents to less than 93 points per game. The Jazz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They also have a strong defense, but the Spurs can score on offense. They have a lot of edges in this matchup all over the court and on the sideline in Coach Popovich as well. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup for the Spurs and he is their best player now. He will be a difference maker tonight, and we think there is a good chance for a blowout here. Yes, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, but they got an easy win last night and they are 11-0 in back-to-backs this season (7-4 ATS). They had two nights off before last night’s game so they should be fine here as far as fatigue. Both meetings thus far this season were major Spurs blowouts and we think the bookies are giving the Jazz way to much credit tonight. |
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02-25-16 | Arizona State v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 46-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #766 Take Utah over Arizona State (9 pm PAC-12) When the opening lines were posted I could not believe this spread was in single digits. Utah is starting to put things together and will enter this game having won four straight including an impressive sweep of the LA teams last week in Southern California. The Utes still have a great chance to win the conference with three home games to close out the regular season. The Sun Devils have won just one road game on the season during PAC-12 play and their last four losses overall have come by double digits. Arizona State is 6-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 PAC-12 Conference games. Utah is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 games played on Thursday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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02-24-16 | Nuggets +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Denver has lost three straight but this team recently covered 11 of 12 games and they are undervalued again here. We thought that this line should be closer to eight points and we think there is a very good chance that this will be a close game. The Clippers are a very public team and even though they have played well to come out of the break one of those wins was against Phoenix and the blowout against the Spurs was more of an off game for San Antonio than a great one for LA. But Denver has lost by more than 10 only once in the last five meetings and they always tend to play well in this series. They have also been playing very well on offense and they should be able to score enough points to keep this one close and be in a position to win this one late. We think the total is about five points too low and expect this one to be a barnburner at Staples Center. |
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02-24-16 | Utah State v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #576 Take Nevada over Utah State (10 pm the MWC) The Wolf Pack already beat the Aggies in Logan and expect them to complete the season sweep on Wednesday. Utah State has struggled on the road this season and they do not play much defense whatsoever. The Wolf Pack is one of the top teams in the MWC and they still have a great chance to earn a top four seed in the upcoming MWC Tournament. Nevada is seconds away from winning straight games and this team seems to give maximum effort each and every night. The Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. |
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02-21-16 | Lakers +7 v. Bulls | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is the worst version of this Bulls team that we have seen in years and there is no way they should be laying this many points to anyone, even the Lakers. Chicago has been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 21-33 ATS. They are 10-17 ATS here at home and 3-8 ATS at home against losing teams. LA comes into this game very healthy and this team has been scrappy lately with six straight covers. This is a team that is playing hard every game lately but they keep losing so their spreads are staying honest. We think the home team is overvalued again tonight and we expect a close game here and think the Lakers have a really good chance to win this one straight up. |
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02-20-16 | Miami (Fla) +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #525 Take Miami over North Carolina (1 pm CBS) ACC Game of the Year. Miami has the talent to run up and down the floor with North Carolina and taking the points in early games is always a good thing. The Hurricanes are a quite 21-4 and will enter this game having won 5 straight games. Carolina is coming off a disappointing game against Duke in which they gave away the game against a depleted Blue Devil team. Expect a carryover effect in this game against Miami, a team that beat Duke by double-digits this season. People are really starting to question Roy Williams as an in-game coach and I do not see this critique ending any time soon. The Tar Heels have lost three of their last five games and this is one of the worst shooting teams from the arc in the conference including going 1 for 13 last time out. Miami knows that if they win this game, they can win the ACC regular season title and expect them to whether the storm early then take control in the second half. Miami is 9-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played on Saturday. North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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02-19-16 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 217.5 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
These aren’t very good defensive teams, there is no doubt about that. But this total is just way too high. Pro bettors bet this one down from an opener of 218, but this line is still too high and there is some very nice value here for teams that could be rusty heading back from the all-star break. All three games Thursday went under as teams tried to get their rhythm back and we expect the under to be a strong play across the board here in Sacramento. Coach Karl is on the hot seat in Sacramento and one of the main reasons is defense. This team has been very lousy in that aspect. But they have to get better. Karl got a reprieve and some extra time to figure things out and we think this team starts playing better on the defensive end in the second half of the season. Karl’s job literally depends on it. Denver is not a good offensive team and they can really struggle on any given night. It’s just hard to believe both teams will have a big game here offensively enough to get this one over the posted number. |
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02-18-16 | Spurs -4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
We don’t think the Clippers are any match for a well-rested Spurs team here on Thursday night. Yes, LA has been playing much better since Blake Griffin first went out with injury. They, however, haven’t had a very challenging schedule during that stretch, and they didn’t perform great against the best competition. Let’s look at their toughest games: at Boston (OT loss), at Atlanta (2-point win), at Indiana (2-point win), at Toronto (blowout loss), at Cleveland (blowout loss), vs. Houston (OT win). They will face a huge step up in talent tonight against the Spurs. Now let’s look at how the Clippers have done this season against the NBA’s best: vs. OKC (one-point loss), at San Antonio (8-point loss), vs. Golden State (seven-point loss), at Golden State (four-point loss). And Griffin was playing in those games. Yes, the team has done well without Griffin but that came against some questionable competition. This team hasn’t done well with Griffin in the lineup against the best teams and they are just not as good of a team without him despite what their recent record might indicate. We think they are outmatched tonight. The Spurs don’t need much motivation to play well, but they will want to start the second half of the season strong with a marquee win here. The Spurs always play well here in LA and have covered in five of the last seven meetings and they have covered in five of the last seven overall. Add in some unprecedented rest and that tilts the needle further in the Spurs favor here. The Spurs are one of the best teams to bet on this season and have compiled a 34-19 ATS record, and they are often undervalued on the road (15-10 ATS). The Clips are just 4-6 ATS at home against winning teams, and just that small sample size shows that they haven’t been tested a lot here. The Spurs are a much better overall team and this line is right tonight. |
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02-17-16 | George Washington -2 v. Duquesne | Top | 81-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #713 Take George Washington over Duquesne (7 pm) The Colonials are fighting for their NCAA Tournament life and will enter Wednesday in a must win situation as their victory over Virginia can only take them so far. That being said they already beat this team by 27 points this season and playing in Pittsburgh should not all the Dukes to win this game. GW has already won three conference road games this season including at VCU so expect them to take this game by 7-10 points. The Dukes are coming off an OT game giving up 108 points to UMASS. |
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02-13-16 | Wisconsin v. Maryland -9 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #606 Take Maryland over Wisconsin (6:30 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. Wisconsin appears to have righted the ship but to me it is just fool’s gold. They have won six straight games but four of them were at home and the two road wins were against bottom feeders Illinois and Penn State (combined 6-14 in conference play). They have recorded quality wins during this streak against Michigan State and Indiana but they had a major edge in free throws in both of those games. Both coaches chirped about this and we have seen in recent games that the refs are not sending Wisconsin to the free throw line that often and that will definitely be the case against on Saturday. It has been over a month since Wisconsin has had to play in a hostile environment and their schedule is really back loaded as they still have to play at Iowa, at Michigan State, & at Purdue after this trip to College Park. Maryland is the best offensive team in the conference and one of the top five teams in the country. They are loaded at every position and will enter this game having won five in a row. In the first meeting against Wisconsin, Maryland was in control before a late Badger rally nearly sent the game into overtime. That will not be the case tonight, as Maryland just does not lose games at home. Maryland beat a much better Wisconsin team at home last season and this game means a lot of Diamond Stone, as he shunned Wisconsin for Maryland and I expect him to come up big yet again. Maryland is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Saturday. Had the line been only 5 or 6 points I would have likely gotten off this game but the line being at 9 shows me that the sharp money will be on Maryland, while the public will be all over Wisconsin. |
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02-11-16 | Pelicans v. Thunder -12 | Top | 95-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We think the Thunder are the clear play of the week in this spot tonight. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. A win here would get them to 40 wins before the all-star break, and that will be huge motivation. They will also be motivated by the death of Ingrid Williams, the wife of assistant Monty Williams. By all accounts she was very special to the team and they will no doubt play this game in her honor. And their opponent tonight is the Pelicans, the team that fired Williams as he was their head coach for quite awhile. Regardless of those angles the Thunder are just a vastly superior team here. This is the second-best offensive team in the NBA, and the Pelicans have one of the worst defenses. We don’t think they will be able to keep up here. OKC is well rested having had two nights off while the Pelicans will be playing on the road in a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Also, news came out yesterday that Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans second-best player, is likely out for the season. And that hurts a team that was already fragile to begin with. Anthony Davis is too young to carry the weight of the entire team on his shoulders. |
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02-11-16 | NC-Greensboro -5 v. VMI | Top | 72-86 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #785 Take Greensboro over VMI (7 pm) The Keydets have mailed in the season as they are 1-11 in a weak Southern Conference this season. Since the turn of the calendar they have won just 1 game and will enter this game having lost six straight games. Only one of those games was competitive and the Spartans have already beaten the Keydets by 17 points this season. Greensboro is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. VMI is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall. |
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02-10-16 | Warriors v. Suns +17 | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
If the Warriors are ever going to take a game off this is probably it. They can beat the Suns without much effort. This is their last game before the All-Star break and this squad has a lot going on during the break and there won’t be a lot of “rest” involved. Just don’t see them putting in enough effort tonight to cover this huge number on the road. This team has done enough good work for the first half of the season that they deserve to take a night off here. Even if they don’t the Suns should play hard here. There is absolutely no reason for them to relax tonight. They have a new coach and they have been more competitive lately. Every time Golden State comes to town it’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team and that will be the case for the Suns tonight. Phoenix has covered in two of the last four, and while that is not incredibly impressive they did not embarrass themselves in any of those games and they seem to have inspired motivation now that Hornacek is out of the picture. |
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02-09-16 | New Mexico -2.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #757 Take New Mexico over Utah State (10 pm CBSSN) I like the Lobos and they are coming off a frustrating game against San Diego State in which they had the Aztecs on the ropes in San Diego before a late collapse. I believe they will take out their frustrations out on the Aggies, a team they already beat by 18 points this season. The Aggies have lost five straight games and they have not been able to compete in the MW since joining the league a couple of years ago. They are a terrible defensive team and expect New Mexico to light up the scoreboard. Finally, their home court edge is all but gone the last few years already losing five times in Logan this season. The Lobos have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. |
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02-09-16 | Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Jazz have been playing well but they still stink on the road and we think they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is just 8-15 on the road this season, and that is with winning their last two road games, although those wins came over Brooklyn and Phoenix, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They face a step up in class here and we think Dallas wins this one pretty comfortably. Utah has lost 10 straight here in Dallas. They have covered in just one of the last eight meetings overall. Dallas wins and losses seem to come in waves and they recently lost three straight against a tough schedule but they earned a big OT win last time out in Memphis and we think they keep the momentum going here against a hot Utah team that has done most of their solid work lately against a home-heavy schedule. Let’s see how they fare here on the road against a solid Western Conference foe. |
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02-08-16 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Love this line for the visitors here tonight as we had the Pelicans handicapped at -3 so we think there is incredible value tonight with the wrong team favored. New Orleans has lost four straight but three of those losses came to the Spurs, Cavs and Grizzlies and then the Lakers caught them in a back-to-back after that Spurs matchup. That’s a very tough schedule. The role of favorite has been one of the worst for Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-10 ATS record as favorite this season and they are a lousy 8-17-1 ATS at home. The bookies are down on New Orleans right now but we think they are the better team in this matchup against a team that has shown to have no home-court edge and we think the Pelicans get the win tonight. |
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02-06-16 | Nets v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Sixers haven’t been favored many times this season but when they have been favorites they have taken care of business with a 2-0 ATS record as favorites. This is a bad spot for Brooklyn. They broke a five-game losing streak with probably their biggest win of the season last night, 128-119 over Sacramento. Now they come in on a back-to-back, on the road, and this is their third game in four nights. Philly is in the same rest situation but being at home is a big advantage here. They are just 2-7 on back-to-backs this season. They used up a lot of energy in that win last night and we think they come out flat on defense here and that will give Philly a big advantage on the offensive end. Philly is 6-3 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. The Nets are 3-7 ATS as a small underdog of less than three points this season. These teams don’t play good defense in the best of situations but it should be even worse tonight since these teams are fatigued. Offense comes naturally to NBA-level players but defense is something that requires a lot of energy and we don’t see either team playing any D tonight. |
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02-06-16 | St. Joe's -7 v. Fordham | Top | 82-60 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #547 Take St Josephs over Fordham (2 pm) The Hawks are just a much better team than are the Rams. St Joes ran into a hot shooting team on Wednesday and suffered a rare loss but expect them to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. The Rams have not recorded a quality win during conference play and their last three losses have been blowouts. St Joes is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games. Fordham is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. |
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02-05-16 | Kings v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn has covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series and once again we think they are getting too many points here. Sacramento is just 8-15 on the road and that is similar to the Nets home record and this is just an inflated line because the public bettors will never take Brooklyn in this scenario. Sacramento was hot but they have cooled off big time lately and are more like the Kings we have become accustomed to. They have won just one of their last six games and their only cover was in that win over Milwaukee. Brooklyn has covered two of their last three games and this team has been competitive and we think they are undervalued again tonight. |
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02-04-16 | Knicks v. Pistons -4 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Pistons have dropped three of four, but look who they lost to: vs. Cleveland, at Toronto and at Boston. They didn’t embarrass themselves in any of those games. They will be desperate to get back on the winning track here on national TV. In fact, this is the team’s first home game on TNT in years, so they will want to play their best, and we think they bring their A Game tonight. This spread pretty much counts for home-court advantage but we think the Pistons are a much better squad with a much higher upside. We think this line has some very nice value. The Knicks are not playing well right now and have dropped six of their last seven. Four of those losses were by double digits and the lone win was vs. Phoenix, who is making a case for the worst team in the NBA. Detroit is a very good ATS team at home (15-7-1 on the season) and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. |
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02-03-16 | Heat v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
We think the Heat are in a real tough spot here in their second of a back-to-back, both on the road, after getting smacked around by Houston last night. Now they face a very solid Dallas club that has been money at home. They have covered six straight here in Dallas and we think this number is short once again. The Mavs have had a pretty tough road schedule lately and haven’t performed that well on the road compared to at home so this team’s stock is down a bit right now. And Dallas has been excellent as a small favorite this year and they have a nice revenge angle for the New Year’s Day beating Miami gave them in South Beach. We will see a much different game than that one tonight. |
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02-03-16 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -6.5 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #532 Take St Josephs over St Bonaventure (7 pm) Just cannot go against the Hawks until they lose a game. They are playing outstanding basketball at the moment and faring very well against the spread as well. The Hawks have lost just one game since December and that came against VCU, a game they dominated for 37 minutes only to give it away at the end of the second half. They really have not had many competitive games for their 18 wins (especially recently) and that is amazing since they are not a lights out shooting team. The Bonnies are a solid team but they are not ready to challenge the top teams in the Atlantic 10. The Hawks are 13-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games overall. |
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02-02-16 | Bucks +7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-107 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Just too many points here. The Bucks come in on a back-to-back and they have not been playing well lately. But Portland isn’t good enough to be laying this many points to a Milwaukee team that isn’t that bad. Only three games in the win column separate these teams and Portland has exceeded expectations while Milwaukee is having a disappointing season. But the more the Bucks lose the bigger the lines get, and that creates betting value. Portland comes in having won four straight. But that was against an easy schedule. Milwaukee matches up well here and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Portland is overpriced here and we think this will be a pretty close game and a Milwaukee win would not be at all shocking as they have played well in this series and you have to go back to 2013 when one of these matchups was decided by more than seven points. |
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02-02-16 | Duke -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #751 Take Duke over Georgia Tech (9 pm ESPN U) Duke has had over one week to process how bad they have been playing this season. Expect Coach K to fix that and they will get this road game in Atlanta on Tuesday. Georgia Tech showed some signs during the nonconference portion of the season but they are reeling at the moment having lost six of their last eight games. Duke has beaten Georgia Tech is 32 of the last 35 games including 11 of the last 13 games in Atlanta. Just feel at some point Duke is going to start to put things together and this is a game they need in order to right he ship. Duke is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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02-01-16 | Raptors v. Nuggets OVER 207.5 | Top | 93-112 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Denver has been one of the better offensive teams in the NBA lately. They have tinkered around with lineup changes and have had players return from injury, and this team is clicking on offense right now and probably playing as well on that end of the court as any team in the NBA right now. They have surpassed the century mark in eight straight games, and they have given up 100+ in all of those games, with five of their opponents scoring 110+. We expect another high-scoring game here as Toronto can definitely score on offense. The Raptors are in good form as well and have surpassed the century mark in nine straight games. Six of the last seven games in this series have gone over the posted number, and the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to these Denver totals. |
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01-30-16 | Spurs -2 v. Cavs | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The Spurs are the second best team in basketball and along with Golden State they are NBA royalty right now. The Cavs are on a lower level. There might be a chance for a slipup if it wasn’t for that Golden State game where the Spurs lost by 30. That was kind of a reality check that they need to come to play every night and that they can’t stop winning and need to try and get home-court advantage in the playoffs. And with both teams motivated the Spurs get a comfortable win in this matchup because they are just a much better team. Cleveland is still working things out and can be inconsistent while the Spurs are a model of consistency and they make things work even with injuries as the system here is more important than any one player. These teams met earlier this month in San Antonio and the Spurs were down big in that game but they put their heads down and dominated the second half. We think they take care of business again tonight. |
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01-30-16 | St. Joe's +3.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #603 Take St Josephs over Rhode Island (6 pm CBSSN) The Hawks have been a staple for us this season and we expect them to complete the season sweep of the Rams on Saturday in Kingston. St Joes has lost just one game since December 1st and that was a game against VCU in which they controlled throughout only to give it away at the close of the second half. For the most part, the Hawks have been sluggish in the first half before turning on the jets in the second half. They have not had a competitive game since they beat Rhode Island on January 10th. The Rams have lost three of their last five games with their two victories coming against bottom feeder teams in the A-10 (La Salle & Fordham). This team has played the entire season without EC Matthews and that is beginning to take its toll on this team down the stretch. The Rams have already lost a couple of home games this season and hopefully the officials will not let Dan Hurley intimidate them. St Joes holds a 58-41 lead in the all-time series record and the average margin of victory over the last five games in under 5 points. St Joes is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games overall including going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Rhode Island is 2-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games following a victory. Anything can happen in college basketball, but the wrong team is favored and we will gladly take the field goal with a better more experienced roster. |
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01-29-16 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-113 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Orlando hasn’t been playing well and has lost seven straight. But this team is better than they have been playing. Even with their struggles they are still 23-20-1 ATS on the season and have been one of the best ATS teams in the league for most of the season. Three of the losses during their current losing streak came in overtime, two to pretty good teams in Memphis and Toronto. It didn’t take the bookies long to overadjust their lines for this team and tonight’s line is packed with value. We had this game handicapped at 5 with a strong lean to Orlando at that number, so we love this line above the key NBA betting number of 7. Orlando has had two nights off to regroup and prepare for this game. That is huge for a team that has been struggling like this as they can kind of regroup and readjust their focus. They are also very healthy right now and have dealt with a variety of injuries the last few weeks. We think the Magic match up well here. They have won and covered three of the last four meetings. In the lone meeting this season they won by 19 at home. The one loss during that stretch was by seven in Boston last season. The Magic led that entire game until a poor fourth quarter. We not only think they have a great chance to cover tonight but think they have a decent chance for the straight up win. |
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01-28-16 | Hawks v. Pacers -3 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Really like the Pacers in this spot. This team is better than it has been playing lately and they catch the Hawks in a bad spot on a back-to-back. The Hawks played a very tough game in a two-point loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. They only managed to score 85 in the very ugly game. Now they have to go on the road for a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Indiana has lost three straight and six of seven, but they have had a very tough schedule lately that has been very road heavy. They are well rested with only one game in the last three nights. They have to be desperate here for a good performance and we think they bring their A Game tonight. Indiana is a very good home team (13-7 this season) while the Hawks are decidedly average on the road (12-12). We think this is a statement game for the Pacers and we think they win this one by 7+. |
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01-27-16 | California v. Utah -6 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #568 Take Utah over California (11 pm ESPN U) The Utes appear to have righted the ship having won three straight games including a sweep last week of the Washington schools. They have lost just one home game this season and will have revenge on their minds facing a depleted Cal team. The Bears are 6-21 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 games played on Wednesday. Utah is 42-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 62 home games. Utah needs this game and they get it by double digits. |
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01-27-16 | Clippers v. Hawks -4.5 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
We think the Clippers are clearly a team to fade right now. This team is in crisis mode because of the Blake Griffin situation with an off-court fight where he broke his hand on the face of a team equipment manager. The team kept this information from the public for a full day, showing what a huge distraction this is. They are on a very tough road trip right now. They barely covered last night against an inconsistent Indiana team. They are now on a back-to-back and facing a much tougher team in Atlanta. The Hawks had the day off yesterday and this team had a tough road trip (they got the split) and they will be happy to be home where they are 15-7 this season. We had this line handicapped at 7.5 so some nice value here. Atlanta has covered in five straight meetings. |
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01-26-16 | Thunder v. Knicks OVER 209.5 | Top | 128-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
The over is a very strong play for us tonight in New York at MSG. Of course the Thunder can light up the scoreboard. They are in great form now and have scored no less than 106 in any of their last four games. Their defense allowed 116 to Brooklyn last time out and they allowed 104 to Denver recently. Their defense isn’t playing the best right now and their pace has been fluid. The Knicks have had two nights off so their offense is in a good position to succeed tonight and Carmelo Anthony is recovering from his knee injury and is expected to play tonight. We think he has a big night and expect the Knicks to get well over the century mark as the pace should suit them in this situation. We don’t think OKC will have any trouble getting points tonight. The over is 10-2 in the Knicks last 12 home games so they are often facing too-low totals here where their offense has been exceeding expectations. The over is 5-1 in the Thunder’s last six road games where their defense hasn’t been playing as well as they have at home. |
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01-25-16 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 212.5 | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
These teams played a very high-scoring game nine days ago where the Celtics won and 236 points were scored. The bookmakers adjusted the line up from that game. But we expect this one to go the other way. Both teams will have different personnel for this game as both have dealt with a lot of injuries. That last game was very hotly-contested and emotional, and we expect the defensive pressure to be ramped up for both teams here. As far as the side, Boston has won all three meetings this season so the Wizards will give it their all here to win. Revenge isn’t a huge factor for us in NBA handicapping, but when teams have played so recently, especially in a game like the last one these teams played, then it does factor in. Washington didn’t have Bradley Beal in that last meeting and he is back here tonight. The Wizards have also had four nights off and should be at their best defensively as they should bring a lot of energy on the defensive end. The under is 9-2 in the Wizards last 11 home games and we think this total is about seven points too high. We would have a major lean to the under even at around 205, so we think there is great value at this number and we knew the bookies would post a too-high number here because of that last game. And there were an abnormal amount of free throw shots taken in that last game, too, with both teams combining for 72 shots from the charity stripe. Doubt they shoot nearly as many here tonight. We think the Wizards win here and we think they get a bit over 100 tonight with Boston being held under the century mark. |
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01-25-16 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #520 Take Miami over Duke (7 pm ESPN) Duke still garners a lot of respect from the odds makers but this team is nowhere near as good as they have been in recent years. They are just a jump shooting team without Amile Jefferson and Miami is just a much more talented team. The Hurricanes have had some success against better Duke teams in recent years as well so I do not expect them to be intimidated tonight especially since they are playing at home. Teams are going to take great joy in pounding Duke this season and tonight it is the Hurricanes turn. Duke is 4-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 games played on Monday. Miami is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 home games. |
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01-23-16 | Hawks v. Suns UNDER 205.5 | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This has the look of just a slaughter and we don’t see how the Suns are going to do anything on offense here. Not fond of laying that many points on the road for a team like Atlanta but the total is the way to go here. The Suns best player, Eric Bledsoe, is already out for the season. Current points and assists leader Brandon Knight is also likely to miss this game as he struggles with a groin injury. They also have a bunch of other players on the injury report today and this team already stinks with the full complement of players but right now they are a new level of awful. The Suns have been really bad on offense lately. Factoring in the pace they play at, some of the numbers that they have been posting are straight up embarrassing. Atlanta plays very good defense, allowing less than 100 PPG, and we don’t think the Suns will get within 10 points of the century mark tonight. Yes, the Suns defense stinks. But we think Atlanta can get their points tonight and still have this go under as long as they don’t go crazy for 120+, which is a rarity for this team. This number is just too high. With the good possibility of a blowout the Hawks likely will be working the clock late in the game and the starters will likely make way for bench players. The last three meetings have all gone under the posted total, and in the last meeting, late last season, the Suns managed only 69 points. We might see that kind of performance again tonight. |
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01-23-16 | Utah State v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #636 Take San Diego State over Utah State (6 pm CBSSN) Really puzzled why this spread is not double digits. San Diego State is clearly the best team in the MWC and expect a better effort today then they gave against Fresno State earlier in the week (The Bulldogs are a better team that the Aggies). The Aztecs have already beaten the Aggies in Logan this season and they have won their three conference home games by an average of 11 points per game. Utah State has three conference victories but none of them have come against good teams (SJSU, Colorado State, Air Force). USU’s only conference loss that was single digits came against SDSU, the other three they lost by 15,18, & 12. With San Diego State it always come down to can they make shots and I feel they will make enough of them today. Utah State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. SDSU is 5-0 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 7 games coming off an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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01-22-16 | Clippers -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 116-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
The Clippers have been very dominant in this series, having won six straight, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. And LA has covered in five of those last six meetings. We are getting a very fair line with the visitors here tonight because they come in on a back-to-back after that big game against Cleveland last night. But that game was not “Big” for the Clippers as much as it was a marquee matchup for TV since those teams have no real history. It’s not like LA played the Warriors or Spurs which might have drained more out of them emotionally. This was just another national TV game and we don’t think there will be any letdown here. Plus the Clippers are athletic enough to play well on a back-to-back no problem. LA has had a very light schedule since the new year so they should have plenty of energy here and should be primed to get back on track against a much more inferior team. LA has been playing very well lately and the bookies overestimated Blake Griffin’s injury impact on the line. The Clippers are 9-3 ATS since Griffin went down and they are truly playing their best ball of the season, last night’s game notwithstanding. The Clips have bounced back well lately after a loss as they are 4-0 ATS in games after a loss. We think this line is off, plain and simple, and there is great value with the Clips tonight who we had favored by 7.5 in our handicapping for this matchup. |
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