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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-16-16 | Bowling Green +6 v. Northern Illinois | 60-71 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. #539 Take Bowling Green +6 over Northern Illinois (5 pm ESPN 3) We will grab the points for a second straight night with two middle of the pack MAC teams. The Falcons have been in a free fall at the moment but I believe they are due for a good performance after a pair of home losses. The Huskies played an embarrassing schedule in nonconference play and thus their 17-8 record is a little misleading. Bowling Green is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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02-15-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee +2 v. Green Bay | 68-70 | Push | 0 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #705 Take Milwaukee over Green Bay (8 pm ESPN 3) Just believe that the Panthers are the better team in this in-state battle and look for them to complete the season sweep of the Phoenix tonight in Green Bay. Both teams have played three games in five days and thus taking the underdog sets up well for two tired teams. Green Bay got pounded by Oakland giving up 111 points to a team Milwaukee beat on last week. Green Bay lost a couple of key players off their squad last season and Milwaukee will use their veterans to win this game by 4-5 points. Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 road games. |
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02-14-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida State | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #859 Take Miami over Florida State (6:30 pm ESPN U) Miami may be the best team in the ACC and they will head to Tallahassee having won three straight games. The Hurricanes are the much better offensive team in this game as Florida State relies heavily on just two players. The Seminoles have been playing bottom feeder teams in the ACC and have not played a ranked team in over three weeks. They were destroyed by Syracuse this week and expect a carryover effect to occur. This is a must win game if Miami wants to win the regular season ACC title. Miami is 17-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games overall. Florida State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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02-13-16 | Wisconsin v. Maryland -9 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #606 Take Maryland over Wisconsin (6:30 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. Wisconsin appears to have righted the ship but to me it is just fool’s gold. They have won six straight games but four of them were at home and the two road wins were against bottom feeders Illinois and Penn State (combined 6-14 in conference play). They have recorded quality wins during this streak against Michigan State and Indiana but they had a major edge in free throws in both of those games. Both coaches chirped about this and we have seen in recent games that the refs are not sending Wisconsin to the free throw line that often and that will definitely be the case against on Saturday. It has been over a month since Wisconsin has had to play in a hostile environment and their schedule is really back loaded as they still have to play at Iowa, at Michigan State, & at Purdue after this trip to College Park. Maryland is the best offensive team in the conference and one of the top five teams in the country. They are loaded at every position and will enter this game having won five in a row. In the first meeting against Wisconsin, Maryland was in control before a late Badger rally nearly sent the game into overtime. That will not be the case tonight, as Maryland just does not lose games at home. Maryland beat a much better Wisconsin team at home last season and this game means a lot of Diamond Stone, as he shunned Wisconsin for Maryland and I expect him to come up big yet again. Maryland is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Saturday. Had the line been only 5 or 6 points I would have likely gotten off this game but the line being at 9 shows me that the sharp money will be on Maryland, while the public will be all over Wisconsin. |
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02-11-16 | Pelicans v. Thunder -12 | Top | 95-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We think the Thunder are the clear play of the week in this spot tonight. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. A win here would get them to 40 wins before the all-star break, and that will be huge motivation. They will also be motivated by the death of Ingrid Williams, the wife of assistant Monty Williams. By all accounts she was very special to the team and they will no doubt play this game in her honor. And their opponent tonight is the Pelicans, the team that fired Williams as he was their head coach for quite awhile. Regardless of those angles the Thunder are just a vastly superior team here. This is the second-best offensive team in the NBA, and the Pelicans have one of the worst defenses. We don’t think they will be able to keep up here. OKC is well rested having had two nights off while the Pelicans will be playing on the road in a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Also, news came out yesterday that Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans second-best player, is likely out for the season. And that hurts a team that was already fragile to begin with. Anthony Davis is too young to carry the weight of the entire team on his shoulders. |
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02-11-16 | NC-Greensboro -5 v. VMI | Top | 72-86 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #785 Take Greensboro over VMI (7 pm) The Keydets have mailed in the season as they are 1-11 in a weak Southern Conference this season. Since the turn of the calendar they have won just 1 game and will enter this game having lost six straight games. Only one of those games was competitive and the Spartans have already beaten the Keydets by 17 points this season. Greensboro is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. VMI is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall. |
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02-10-16 | Warriors v. Suns +17 | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
If the Warriors are ever going to take a game off this is probably it. They can beat the Suns without much effort. This is their last game before the All-Star break and this squad has a lot going on during the break and there won’t be a lot of “rest” involved. Just don’t see them putting in enough effort tonight to cover this huge number on the road. This team has done enough good work for the first half of the season that they deserve to take a night off here. Even if they don’t the Suns should play hard here. There is absolutely no reason for them to relax tonight. They have a new coach and they have been more competitive lately. Every time Golden State comes to town it’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team and that will be the case for the Suns tonight. Phoenix has covered in two of the last four, and while that is not incredibly impressive they did not embarrass themselves in any of those games and they seem to have inspired motivation now that Hornacek is out of the picture. |
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02-10-16 | Lakers +15.5 v. Cavs | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
We think the line is right here and that this is a good spot for the Lakers. LA has been very competitive of late and has covered in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Cavs have just not been good against large spreads and they are 9-17 ATS when laying more than seven points on the season. We just don’t see a blowout here. The Lakers hung with the Spurs on the road recently and that is the type of game we expect here tonight as we think that Cleveland will be looking ahead to the All-Star game and the Lakers probably want to keep improving and a competitive game here would give them some momentum heading into the break. We think there is a great chance LA keeps this one within double digits. |
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02-10-16 | Clippers +1.5 v. Celtics | 134-139 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Love this spot for the Clippers and think this line is way too low. LA has been playing very well in all the recent matchups against Eastern Conference teams. They had a bit of a hiccup last time out at Philly (we were all over the Sixers there) and were down by as many as 19 before rallying and winning in OT. The Clippers are not only winning but covering a lot of games. This team has been playing its best basketball since Blake Griffin first went down with injury. And they also weathered the storm of the Griffin off-court injury. This team seems very focused right now and they want to go into the all-star break on a high note. They catch Boston in a bad spot here. They come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game vs. Milwaukee, a loss, and the Clippers haven’t played any back-to-backs lately so they will be rested here. Boston has been playing well on offense and their defense has been giving up a lot of points and we expect the pace to be swift here and we think LA wins a game where both teams get well over the century mark. |
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02-10-16 | St Bonaventure -5.5 v. Fordham | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #537 Take St Bonaventure over Fordham (7 pm) The Bonnies went into Philadelphia and beat St Joes by double digits. This is the same Hawks team that just destroyed the Rams over the weekend in the Bronx. Thus this play is more about going against the Rams, as they have lost six of their last eight games and all of those losses have come by double digits (22, 16, 14, 25, 31, 11). When they lose they get hammered! If Fordham gets hot from three they might be able to hang around but the Bonnies are a bubble NCAA Tournament team and have too much on the line to take this game lightly. The Bonnies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Atlantic 10 games. Fordham is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. The line is way too low and we will side with the much better team. |
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02-10-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -7.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #548 Take Wisconsin -8 over Nebraska (7 pm BTN) The Badgers are on a roll and I expect them to run the table at home since they have a very weak schedule. Nebraska will be without Shavon Shields tonight after a hard fall over the weekend and that is a major void for them to fill. Wisconsin is getting contributions from numerous players and this is a game they will win by double digits. Nebraska has a one hit wonder two years ago and now has reverted to back to the bottom middle of the pack. |
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02-09-16 | New Mexico -2.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #757 Take New Mexico over Utah State (10 pm CBSSN) I like the Lobos and they are coming off a frustrating game against San Diego State in which they had the Aztecs on the ropes in San Diego before a late collapse. I believe they will take out their frustrations out on the Aggies, a team they already beat by 18 points this season. The Aggies have lost five straight games and they have not been able to compete in the MW since joining the league a couple of years ago. They are a terrible defensive team and expect New Mexico to light up the scoreboard. Finally, their home court edge is all but gone the last few years already losing five times in Logan this season. The Lobos have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. |
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02-09-16 | Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Jazz have been playing well but they still stink on the road and we think they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is just 8-15 on the road this season, and that is with winning their last two road games, although those wins came over Brooklyn and Phoenix, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They face a step up in class here and we think Dallas wins this one pretty comfortably. Utah has lost 10 straight here in Dallas. They have covered in just one of the last eight meetings overall. Dallas wins and losses seem to come in waves and they recently lost three straight against a tough schedule but they earned a big OT win last time out in Memphis and we think they keep the momentum going here against a hot Utah team that has done most of their solid work lately against a home-heavy schedule. Let’s see how they fare here on the road against a solid Western Conference foe. |
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02-09-16 | Wizards +1 v. Knicks | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington has covered in all of the last four meetings here in New York and we think they will do it again here tonight. The Knicks parted ways with Derek Fisher and now Kurt Rambis is leading the team on an interim basis. Even though Fisher stunk this is a downgrade at the coaching position and this Knicks team is a clear fade right now. Things may get worse for this team before they get better and this squad has already dropped 9 of their last 10. The Wizards have had two nights off (4-0 ATS in this situation) and they are healthy right now and even though this team has been disappointing thus far this is clearly a superior team and we had them favored by four in our handicapping for this game so the value here is real tonight. |
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02-08-16 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Love this line for the visitors here tonight as we had the Pelicans handicapped at -3 so we think there is incredible value tonight with the wrong team favored. New Orleans has lost four straight but three of those losses came to the Spurs, Cavs and Grizzlies and then the Lakers caught them in a back-to-back after that Spurs matchup. That’s a very tough schedule. The role of favorite has been one of the worst for Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-10 ATS record as favorite this season and they are a lousy 8-17-1 ATS at home. The bookies are down on New Orleans right now but we think they are the better team in this matchup against a team that has shown to have no home-court edge and we think the Pelicans get the win tonight. |
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02-08-16 | Clippers v. 76ers +9 | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Even though it hasn’t translated into a lot of wins, this Philly team has been playing a lot better than they were playing when they started the season on a historic slide. Some of these young players are finally starting to play together and they have some good veteran leadership that is helping lead the team. The Clippers have been playing very well. But this is a bad spot for them and too many points. They come in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four days. They beat Miami yesterday and have the Celtics up next before the All-Star Break and this is very likely a game they will sleepwalk through and LA just hasn’t been very good as a big favorite like this. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 21 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #102 Take Denver Broncos over Carolina Panthers (Super Bowl 50, 6:30 pm CBS) All the pubic cannot get their money down fast enough on Carolina for this game and thus I believe the value lies with the Broncos as the spread approaches a touchdown. Hard to fault with how Carolina has been playing of late but I believe that if Denver can stabilize this game early that they have the ability to take this game down to the wire. Peyton Manning has not been playing well this season but he appears to have realized his limitations and is making a conscious effort to protect the football and rely on his No. 1 ranked defense. Nobody really knows how Carolina will react in a close game where they are not way up in the first half. Denver should have learned some lessons from their performance two years ago against Seattle and that should help them in this contest. The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games against teams with a winning record. |
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02-06-16 | Jazz v. Suns +6.5 | 98-89 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
We won’t be taking the Suns too often this season but we think this is a great spot for them and expect them to compete for the win tonight. Utah’s stock is high right now as they have won five straight. They just completed a six-game homestand, however, so that record is somewhat misleading. This team is just 7-15 away from home this season (for comparison, the Suns have 10 wins at home). They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Suns have played pretty well in their last two games here at home with covers against the Raptors and Rockets. In fact, they have now covered four of five at home with the only ATS loss being that blowout by the Spurs. Phoenix was off last night and they had a couple days off the last few nights while Utah is in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. Utah is on upset alert here tonight. |
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02-06-16 | Nets v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Sixers haven’t been favored many times this season but when they have been favorites they have taken care of business with a 2-0 ATS record as favorites. This is a bad spot for Brooklyn. They broke a five-game losing streak with probably their biggest win of the season last night, 128-119 over Sacramento. Now they come in on a back-to-back, on the road, and this is their third game in four nights. Philly is in the same rest situation but being at home is a big advantage here. They are just 2-7 on back-to-backs this season. They used up a lot of energy in that win last night and we think they come out flat on defense here and that will give Philly a big advantage on the offensive end. Philly is 6-3 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. The Nets are 3-7 ATS as a small underdog of less than three points this season. These teams don’t play good defense in the best of situations but it should be even worse tonight since these teams are fatigued. Offense comes naturally to NBA-level players but defense is something that requires a lot of energy and we don’t see either team playing any D tonight. |
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02-06-16 | St. Joe's -7 v. Fordham | Top | 82-60 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #547 Take St Josephs over Fordham (2 pm) The Hawks are just a much better team than are the Rams. St Joes ran into a hot shooting team on Wednesday and suffered a rare loss but expect them to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. The Rams have not recorded a quality win during conference play and their last three losses have been blowouts. St Joes is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games. Fordham is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. |
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02-05-16 | Spurs -6.5 v. Mavs | 116-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Have to love the Spurs here laying a manageable number against their in-state opponent. Both teams are banged up but the Spurs can handle injuries better than the Mavs because they are much deeper and they play within a system where the methods are more important than the individual players. San Antonio has dominated the regular-season meetings between these teams for years. San Antonio is 7-3 ATS on the road against winning teams and this squad continues to be one of the best bets in the NBA as they don’t let up and always play the full 48 minutes. We think there is a good chance for a double-digit win here. |
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02-05-16 | Bucks v. Jazz -7.5 | 81-84 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Milwaukee had dropped four straight games ATS and we think they are in for another tough night against a Utah team that is healthy, playing great basketball and has dominated them to the tune of 13 straight wins here in Utah. Milwaukee has covered only 3 of their last 16 trips here and they are 5-21 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Utah has won four straight. They have dealt with some injuries but most of the main players are back and their defense has been incredible. Milwaukee has been playing barely any defense and all of their last seven opponents have scored 100 or more. Utah isn’t a great offensive team. But they have been playing better on that side of the ball. And if they can get near 100 here, combined with that awesome D, this should be another easy cover. |
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02-05-16 | Kings v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn has covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series and once again we think they are getting too many points here. Sacramento is just 8-15 on the road and that is similar to the Nets home record and this is just an inflated line because the public bettors will never take Brooklyn in this scenario. Sacramento was hot but they have cooled off big time lately and are more like the Kings we have become accustomed to. They have won just one of their last six games and their only cover was in that win over Milwaukee. Brooklyn has covered two of their last three games and this team has been competitive and we think they are undervalued again tonight. |
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