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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-11-16 | Cal Poly v. Pepperdine -8 | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #760 Take Pepperdine -8 over Cal Poly (10 pm) The Waves quietly had a good season last year finishing fourth in the WCC and they return some talent from that squad. Cal Poly had a poor year and I just do not see things getting much better in 2016-2017. They return just two starters and only won four games last year in the Big West and ten overall. |
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11-11-16 | Idaho State v. New Mexico -17 | 70-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #838 Take New Mexico -16 over Idaho State (10 pm) The Lobos are the second-best team in the MWC this season and should have no problem taking out the Bengals at the Pit tonight. This is an important game season for them and their head coach and I believe they are good enough to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Only the coaches son does not return but this team will be better without him and should be able to score points at will in this game. Idaho State plays in a one bid league and they are not among the top teams in the Big Sky. New Mexico will win this game by twenty points. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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11-11-16 | Clippers -3 v. Thunder | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
The Clippers are off to their best start in franchise history and right now this looks like hands down the best team in the NBA. They look like Golden State did last season. They are 7-1 both SU and ATS, and their one loss this season was to these Thunder in LA last week. This was just an off game from the Clippers and not a signal that the Thunder are the better team. LA shot less than 40 percent from the field in that game and the shots just weren’t falling. Despite that off game they were still in the game until the final seconds. Outside of the Clippers win and a blowout loss to Golden State the Thunder have had a pretty easy schedule up until Wednesday when they were pretty much exposed by the Raptors at home in a 10-point loss. We just don’t think that this team is as good as they have looked so far, and the Clippers will want revenge in this game for the one blemish on their record. We had this game handicapped at Clippers -7, so we think there is some great value here. LA has one their last three games by an average of 29 points, and they made the Blazers, a very good team, look foolish last time out. They are playing by far the best defense in the league in allowing around 88 points per game. This team is one of the deepest in the league now with a retooled bench, and everyone seems to be on the same page. Doc Rivers stressed the importance of getting off to a fast start this season since by the start of December they were in such a division hole that they would never be able to recover from. Looks like the players have listened, and we just don’t see them losing to what we consider a mediocre Thunder team twice in the same month. |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
The Pelicans are on the last game of a three-game road trip tonight. They have a chance to set the franchise record for losses to start a season tonight. We think they give an all-out effort to avoid that tonight. This team has been bad, but they still have some talent and also a guy named Anthony Davis, one of the NBA’s best players and definitely the best player on the court here tonight. This team will probably not be very good this season but they will still win a bunch of games and they won’t be kept out of the winless column for long. This is the most winnable game on this road trip and the Pelicans had two OT losses before this trip so they have been close to getting that first win. The Bucks scored 74 points (in regulation) last time out in their loss at Dallas and we think that current bad offensive form could translate into a Pelicans win tonight. |
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11-10-16 | Bulls v. Heat -2 | 98-95 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
We will take Miami in Wade’s return to South Beach. Neither team is playing well right now, but the Heat have had a bit tougher of a schedule lately and we think they are well positioned to win and cover here at home. The Bulls haven’t been good on the road this season or last, and Miami has won and covered in four straight meetings in this series. Most public bettors think Wade will have a big game here but he is not as good of a player as he once was, and we expect Whiteside to have a monster game here for the Heat. |
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11-09-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 80-111 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
We have backed the Clippers a lot this young season and we said we expected a hot start and that is just what happened as they have their best start in franchise history at 6-1 and are climbing up everyone’s power rankings. We think this team is going to be a solid bet all season. However, we do think this line is too large on Wednesday for the home team. These teams met in the Clippers season opener and LA won by eight in Portland but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter and that loss sets up a revenge spot here for the Blazers. The Clips have the best scoring defense in the league but the Blazers were able to put points on the board against them (only team to eclipse the century mark) and we think they will be able to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. |
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11-09-16 | Raptors +3.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
We like the Raptors in this spot. This starts a big stretch of 8 of 10 games on the road for Toronto against a lot of tough teams but we think they will want to get off to a hot start here against the Thunder. We think OKC is a bit overrated right now. Yes, they are 6-1 this season. But they have had a home-heavy schedule that has featured teams like Phoenix, LA Lakers, Minnesota and Miami, all teams that were supposed to be bad or have struggled so far. They won at Philly in a game they didn’t cover, got blown out at Golden State and barely beat a Clippers team that played by far their worst game of the season (the team was ice cold from the field). The Raps have had a couple nights off and come into this one rested. This has been a good team ATS the last couple years for covering in games like this and we think they have a great chance to challenge for the win tonight. |
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11-08-16 | Mavs +5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
So we have been on the Lakers quite a bit this season and that’s been a major reason for our hot start. But it doesn’t take long for the numbers to get inflated with this team when they play well. And that is the case tonight against a team that has owned them with 10 straight wins against the Lakers, six coming by double digits. This is a young team and they are well coached now, but we still think that maybe it’s too early for them to be lined like this against a team like Dallas, even though the Mavericks haven’t started off the season well. The Lakers couldn’t score on the Mavs last season and Dallas held them under 90 points, on average, in the three-game sweep. We think their defense will get the job done tonight again. |
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11-07-16 | Bills +6.5 v. Seahawks | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
7-Unit Play. Take #473 Buffalo over Seattle (Monday, November 7 at 8:30 PM ET) Take Buffalo ATS as my 7-Unit NFL Smash for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I feel we are getting extremely good line value with the Bills on the road Monday night. This is a very bad situational game for the Seahawks who are coming off a road loss to the Saints. The Seahawks have struggled big time offensively and I expect their struggles to continue for as long as Wilson is playing hurt. The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing a team with a winning record and I look for their defense to step up huge in this game after being embarrassed last week by the Patriots. The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Seattle. Buffalo has only lost by 7 or more points just once this season and that happened last week against the Patriots. The Bills are very capable of pulling off the upset Monday night as they do manage time of possession extremely well, and they are the #1 rushing team in the NFL this season. The Bills also have the 5th most TD's in the NFL this season with 23, and this Seahawks offense will not be able to keep up. I fully expect this Bills offense to be clicking Monday night against a tired Seahawks defense who gave up 25 points to the Saints last week, especially with McCoy likely to make his return. Play Buffalo ATS with confidence. |
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11-06-16 | Suns v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Both of these teams have been cash cows so far this season with the Suns at 4-2 ATS and the Lakers at 5-1 ATS. The Suns are playing well but we have to go with the home team here and we expected this line to be higher and there is some very nice line value here. The Lakers have had a little tougher schedule this season and this team just dominated the Golden State Warriors last time out and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Their success this season so far just shows how important coaching is in the NBA and we think this line is short tonight. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 14 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #471 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) It has been a while since the Raiders have gotten on NBC and I fully expect them to fall flat on their face in this game. Oakland has already lost two road games this season and they have yet to cover the spread in any home game this season. They have the better quarterback in this game but penalties are always a major concern with this team. I still believe the league and the officials are out to get this team because of Al Davis and they look to throw flags against them on every play. Tampa Bay had every opportunity to win last week against Oakland yet could not take advantage of the situation. That will not happen with Denver one of the better coached teams in the league. Oakland ranks at the bottom of the league in both pass & run defense. The Raiders have played a very easily schedule thus far as the AFC South and NFC South are not all that good. Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games. Denver is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games overall. |
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11-06-16 | Saints -3 v. 49ers | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 79 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #464 Take New Orleans Saints over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) Until the 49ers actually play well, we will continue to go against them, especially with these low numbers. New Orleans is a different team on the road compared to at the Superdome but plays well when traveling west. They beat the San Diego Chargers and took the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire. San Francisco is injured on both sides of the football and they just do not have much talent. The 49ers cannot stop the run and they have allowed 112 points over their last three games. San Francisco has lost six straight games, and all of them have come over today’s posted number. |
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11-06-16 | Jets +4 v. Dolphins | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 76 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #459 Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Dolphins are not a good enough team to be laying this many points against anyone in the AFC East. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins four straight times on the road, and if the Jets can stop the newfound running attack of Miami they can win this game straight-up again. New York is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against AFC East teams when they are an underdog on the road. The Jets cover the spread against the Dolphins for a 6 straight time. |
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11-05-16 | Clippers +5.5 v. Spurs | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
We are just really high on this Clippers team to start the season. They have started slow almost every year of the Chris Paul/Blake Griffin era, but this year they look a lot different and they seem to be in mid-season form despite a close loss to Oklahoma City last time out. In that game just about every player besides Chris Paul had an off game. But we think they will bounce back strong here. The Spurs enter on a back-to-back after a tough matchup in Utah on Friday. This team has looked good so far but it has mostly been a pretty easy schedule outside of the Golden State game and the two against Utah. But something just seems a bit off with this team to start the season. We expect a close game here, and it would not be shocking to us to see the road team with straight up. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa +7 v. Penn State | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #405 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 7:30 pm BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. Penn State is getting a lot of publicity for beating Ohio State but they are overvalued now. These are two similar teams and should be around a field goal spread and thus we will gladly grab this many points with a team that plays well on the road. Iowa has won nine straight road games including three conference games this season. This is not expected to be a whiteout for the home team and I just do not believe Penn State is good enough to be laying this many points against top teams in the league. Penn State was an underdog to Maryland and Pittsburgh this season and now they are a touchdown favorite against a better team than those two. Iowa is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. If they can stabilize this game early, it should go down to the wire. Penn State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Iowa is a better team as an underdog and their senior quarterback will make enough plays to keep this game close and pull out the straight-up victory. |
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11-05-16 | Cavs v. 76ers +12 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
When the Sixers play the Cavs it’s like their own little version of the NBA Finals and they seem to elevate their game big time against this opponent. They have covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Although they have only won one of those matchups, this is the best Philly team we have seen during that stretch and the line is not much different than what we have dealt with in the past. The Cavs have looked great to start the season but this team is overvalued by the oddsmakers as is indicated by their 2-3 ATS record despite their 5-0 SU record. This will only be their second road game this season. This is one of the biggest home games for Philly this year and we think these young guys give a great effort here in a close game. |
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11-05-16 | Wolves +6.5 v. Thunder | 92-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves have gotten off to a slow start on the season at 1-3. But this team is going to be pretty good this season and it’s just a matter of time before they start cashing some tickets. This is a role that they were very good in last season as a decent underdog on the road. This team matches up well with OKC and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. They even scored a straight up win in the last meeting in OKC. These games have mostly been close lately and now Minnesota has lessened the gap of talent between these two clubs as they are getting better while the Thunder lost a lot when Durant left to greener pastures. |
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11-05-16 | Vanderbilt v. Auburn -25.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #366 Take Auburn Tigers over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) We will continue to ride Auburn as they are playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment. The Tigers have won five straight games and only one game was below double digits. Auburn has an outstanding rushing attack with a three-headed monster. Vanderbilt has played a very weak SEC schedule thus far and it does not get much tougher either as this is their toughest game on the schedule. They need to win two of their last four games to go bowling and I do not see that happening. Vanderbilt has a good defense but they have yet to play an explosive offense like Auburn. The Tigers have covered the spread in five straight games. The Commodores are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win in their previous game. |
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11-05-16 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7 | 21-7 | Loss | -119 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #414 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 12 pm ABC) The Badgers are the worst offensive team in the top 10 of the rankings. They have yet to score over 23 points in four straight games, and their defense alone cannot win this game. Northwestern is getting better each and every week, and they will enter having won three of their last four games with just a four-point loss to Ohio State as their only setback. This series has been dominated by the home team winning 8 of the last 9 games (7-1-1 ATS). Wisconsin has had to go through a gauntlet of a schedule, and I feel it has taken its toll on their offense (rotating quarterbacks). This game will go down to the wire and we will collect with whoever pulls it out. |
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11-04-16 | Warriors v. Lakers +11 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
We were on the Warriors last night as they hosted the Thunder and blew them out. Now they travel to Los Angeles in a game that is much less important to them. But this game means a lot to the Lakers, and this game is very big for the youngsters of the Lakers. If anyone knows how to slow down the Warriors attack it’s a former coach, and Luke Walton will devise a good gameplan to keep this one close. LA is very confident coming off a road win in Atlanta and this team was one of the few to beat Golden State in the regular season last year. We think this will be a real competitive game. Despite the results against OKC last night this Warriors team is still working some things out and we don’t think this big spread is warranted tonight. |
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11-04-16 | Spurs v. Jazz +5 | 100-86 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The Jazz match up well here. So well, in fact, that they just scored a 15-point win in San Antonio a couple nights ago. This Spurs team is a veteran club and they are just focused on becoming a better team and this team is not the type to obsess over revenge against a team like this. And the Spurs host the Clippers tomorrow night, and we think that is the game they will be more focused on. We missed the good opening line on the total here but think this will be lower-scoring than that recent meeting and the lower the point total the more valuable the points are with the underdog. |
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11-04-16 | Knicks +7.5 v. Bulls | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
The Knicks have won and covered in three of the last four meetings. New York is 1-3 on the season while the Bulls are 3-1. But Chicago has had an easier schedule and we don’t think these two teams are as far apart as this spread would indicate. We expect the Knicks to tighten up defensively in this matchup and expect a close game. The Knicks have a couple players in Rose and Noah that will want to play their best here against their old team, and we expect the Knicks to cover this one if not win outright. |
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11-04-16 | Suns v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are 0-5 on the season and the spreads just keep getting better for this team and this squad is starting to see some real value. If this game was on opening night the Pelicans may be a 8-point favorite. But Phoenix has been more competitive than expected and the Pelicans have yet to win a game, therefore we have a slim line here. But make no mistake the Pelicans are a lot better of a team than the Suns and Phoenix is only 1-4 so even though they have played well they are not playing well enough to warrant this kind of spread on the road. This line tells me these teams would be about pickem on a neutral floor, and with Anthony Davis being one of the NBA’s best we think the Pels have a decided edge. |
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11-03-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
In this matchup of Durant vs. Westbrook the Warriors have a huge edge. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at the Clippers on Wednesday and now they face an even tougher test here on Thursday. Both these star players want to win this game, but Westbrook expended a lot of energy last night against LA and Durant has a much better supporting cast. The Warriors have an us-against-the-world mentality and I have a feeling that the rest of the Warriors want this game for Durant even more than Durant does. We expect the best performance of the year from Golden State here, and this one should be a blowout. |
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11-03-16 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 107-125 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Indiana has won two straight in Milwaukee and three of four in the series overall. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee. We just think that this Pacers team is the better ballclub right now and our first thought when we saw this line that it was a bit short. Both teams have been allowing too many points on defense, but the Pacers seem to have the better offense at this point and their backcourt should be able to get the job done for the road win tonight, their first of the season, against a very beatable opponent. |
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11-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -7 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is another great spot for the Clippers, who we are very high on entering the season. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this season thus far. Coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this season and this team is really looking better than they have at any point early-season in the Blake Griffin era. This is a horrible spot for OKC. They play the Warriors on national TV tomorrow. Russell Westbrook and his massive ego are probably putting in all their chips on that game and could care less about this one. We don’t expect max effort here. All anyone ever asks Westbook is about Durant leaving to greener pastures. You can tell by his responses that he is really bothered by this. He will give it his all on Thursday but on Wednesday this is a real look-ahead spot for the visitors. |
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11-02-16 | Blazers v. Suns +3 | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
The Suns have had the toughest schedule in the NBA to start the season as they played OKC, LAC and GSW. They are battle tested. Two of those were on the road. They covered in two of the three games. We think they will play well tonight here and challenge for the win. The Blazers come in on a back-to-back after chasing the Warriors around all night and an after-Golden State back-to-back is tougher than a normal one since everyone wants to beat the Warriors. We think the Suns have a great chance to win this one straight up. |
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11-02-16 | Pistons v. Nets +4.5 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
This is more of a fade of Detroit than a backing of Brooklyn but we think the Pistons will be one of those teams that plays well at home this season and struggles on the road. They have looked good at home in beating three lousy teams but they lost bad on the road in their lone road game so far. The Nets have been playing hard this season and are better than expected as they are 3-1 ATS on the season. We expect them to play well here and challenge for the win. Brooklyn has covered in six of the last eight meetings. |
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11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -3.5 | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
These teams played last week and the Grizzlies got a close win at home. The Timberwolves led by as many as 17 in that game but Memphis rallied in the second half and the game went down to the wire. That sets up the perfect revenge spot tonight for the Timberwolves and we think they get the win here at home. They have covered six of the last eight meetings in this series and this is the best team they have had during that stretch and you can probably say the opposite for the Grizzlies. The line is right here and this looks like a great spot for the Timberwolves to get their first win and cover of the season. |
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11-01-16 | Bucks +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Just don’t like this New Orleans team right now and besides Anthony Davis this team doesn’t offer much in terms of scoring. Yes, Davis is leading the league in points per game but the team has not had any success on the floor. This team is massively overrated by the oddsmakers and the general betting public right now and we think the Bucks have a great chance to score a road win here, especially if they can focus on slowing down Davis and playing team basketball. This really seems like a line set to attract New Orleans money but we think the underdog is the clear play here. |
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11-01-16 | Magic v. 76ers +5.5 | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Neither team has a win, but we don’t think the Magic should be favored by this many points against anyone, much less on the road. This is a very winnable game for the Sixers and we expect a strong game from the home team tonight and think this will be a very close game no matter who comes out on top. We had the Magic -1 in this contest and think there is some very nice value here. Orlando hasn’t been playing very good defense and we think the Sixers will be able to score enough points to keep this one close on Tuesday. |
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10-31-16 | Suns v. Clippers -10.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Both teams are coming into this one on back-to-backs but the Clippers were at home yesterday also so they are in a better position with no travel. Phoenix also played Golden State on Sunday at home and put up a pretty good effort in a six-point loss and we think this is a letdown spot for them after that game, one they surely wanted more than this one. The Clippers are underrated to start the season. Everyone remembers the playoff exits and frustrations with this team but no one remembers how good this team can be, and coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this year as this team has been notoriously slow to start. But they have looked great so far and look to be in midseason form, and we expect them to dominate this much lesser opponent tonight. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -6.5 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #259 Take New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This is a revenge game for the Patriots as they lost to Buffalo earlier this season without QB Tom Brady. New England is 3-0 since the return of Tom Brady and they have won all three games by double digits. Now Buffalo is banged up with RB LeSean McCoy have been injured in the last two games. With Robert Woods also banged up (did not play last week) I just do not believe Tyrod Taylor can win this game on his own without any weapons. New England has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. |
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10-29-16 | Wolves -1.5 v. Kings | 103-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Minnesota is a team we think the oddsmakers are behind on here at the start of the season. We had them in the season opener The Timberwolves lost in Memphis in their opener but the game was nothing to be ashamed of as they played well and gave the Grizzlies a fight to the end on a night Memphis played an awesome game. The Kings are just not a very good team this season. They basically have DeMarcus Cousins and not a lot else. This team has been great to bet against in recent years and we think that are overvalued tonight as the Wolves should be -5 here minimum. Great line value tonight. The Wolves should easily get their first win of the season tonight. |
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10-29-16 | Magic +11 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Orlando hasn’t looked very good to open the season but you can’t judge a team by just two games and we expect them to give the Cavs their best shot tonight. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game against rival Toronto last night and now they face a much lesser opponent and we think this is a prime letdown spot for them tonight. This team is often overvalued by the oddsmakers but that is very evident here with this huge number on the back-to-back. We think Frank Vogel will have his team ready tonight and we think Orlando is a solid value play. |
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10-29-16 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Knicks | 104-111 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Memphis played really well in their season opener against Minnesota and we think the Knicks are way overrated this season, at least to start the season. This team is a puzzle and they are hoping all the pieces fit together right but we think that will take time if it ever even happens. Memphis is healthy and confident coming into this one and we think they will get the win here on the road tonight. |
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10-29-16 | Auburn -4 v. Ole Miss | 40-29 | Win | 100 | 102 h 9 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #179 Take Auburn Tigers over Ole Miss Rebels (Saturday 7:15 pm SEC Network) We need to keep riding Auburn now, as they have won four straight games including back-to-back blowouts the last two week against SEC teams (Arkansas & Mississippi State). People still think Ole Miss is good but their 3-4 record says otherwise. They have lost two straight SEC games to teams Auburn has already beaten this season. Ole Miss is having trouble stopping the run and Auburn is running for over 300 yards per game. Lay the points with the better team, as the SEC West has taken its toll on the Rebels. Auburn is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -6 | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 17 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #132 Take Wake Forest Demon Deacons over Army Black Knights (Saturday 3:30 pm ACC Network) The Black Knights continue to be overvalued by the odds makers having dropped their last three games against FBS teams. Surprisingly these teams have played the last four years with Wake Forest winning all four of them (3-1 ATS). Army was a huge favorite last week and got destroyed by North Texas in embarrassing fashion. Wake Forest has a rock-solid defense and they shut down the Army rushing attack last year giving up just 123 in West Point. Wake Forest has a weak offense but they should be able to move the football against the undersized and slow Army defense. Army is 8-23 (1 push) in their last 32 road games. Wake Forest is coming off a bye and that bodes well since they have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games following a week off. |
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10-29-16 | Duke +7 v. Georgia Tech | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #175 Take Duke Blue Devils over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Saturday 12 pm ACC Network) We will gladly take the points in this game since Duke has beaten Georgia Tech two straight years. Duke has already faced a triple option in Army this season and they seem to always defend the option well. Georgia Tech will likely make a coaching change at the end of the season as it is becoming apparent that the Triple Option cannot be successful anymore in a Power 5 Conference. The Yellow Jackets just have a fluke win against Boston College in Ireland to open the season as their only conference win. This is not a typical Georgia Tech team as they lack quality at the running back position and QB Justin Thomas has not been throwing the football great this season. Duke is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Georgia Tech is 4-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games. |
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10-28-16 | Lakers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
We went against the Jazz in their first game (at Portland) and went with the Lakers at home in Game 1 (against Houston) and both picks cashed. Now we are looking the other direction. Los Angeles got the win in Luke Walton’s coaching debut but they played a Rockets team that doesn’t play any defense and that fits into their style of play. Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the league and points won’t be easy to come by and this will be a new style for the Lakers young guys to play. We hope Derrick Favors is back for Utah tonight, but even if he isn’t the Jazz should have no problem getting the double-digit win in their home opener. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and there is a lot of excitement in Utah this season and the crowd will be rocking. And Utah really needs a big win here as they have road games against the Clippers and Spurs on deck in their next two games so a 0-4 start is definitely a possibility if they don’t take this game very seriously tonight. Utah has covered in four of five meetings and three of those were double-digit blowouts. The two games in Utah last year were absolute massacres (48 and 27 points) and we think they will take care of business again in a big way. |
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10-28-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a nice revenge spot for Toronto after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last season. Cleveland doesn’t normally take the regular season too seriously and they probably won’t give max effort here in this one even though we think the Raps will. Toronto wants this bad, and we think they will compete for the win tonight. Both teams looked good in their openers but the Cavs are overvalued here after beating the new-look and overrated Knicks in their opener. They won’t have such an easy time here on the road. Toronto’s home win over Detroit was pretty impressive, and we think they are in good shape here tonight. The Cavs have covered in only one of the last five trips to Toronto and we see that trend extending tonight. |
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10-27-16 | Clippers -2 v. Blazers | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Doc Rivers, Clippers coach, has emphasized all preseason how Los Angeles needs to get off to a fast start this year. They haven’t done that the last couple years and that has cost them playoff seeding and a tough road in the playoffs. With the Super Team in Golden State in the division the Clippers need to be very focused this season to keep par. They were out of the division race last season after the first month of the season. They really need the No. 2 seed this year in the playoffs to avoid the Warriors for as long as possible, and they need to avoid a slow start to achieve that. This is a major revenge spot for the Clippers after losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last season. LA was in total control in that series before they lost Blake Griffin and Chris Paul to injury. We think they will give max effort here. Portland got a win in their opener against Utah but that game was closer than it looked and they needed a rally to get by the injured Jazz. That type of effort won’t be enough tonight against what should be a very motivated Clippers team whose core has been together for a long time now. |
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10-27-16 | Spurs v. Kings +9 | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The Kings open their new arena tonight for the first real basketball action and this is one of the biggest nights in sports history in Sacramento. The building will be rocking. The Kings aren’t a great team but they have one of the best players in the game in DeMarcus Cousins, and this team will give max effort in their home opener tonight. The Spurs looked amazing in their season-opening win over the Warriors. We can’t take anything away from them, but Golden State didn’t play very well in that game. And the Spurs were ultra motivated for that one. But there are some signs of trouble for this team as there is some word on the street that LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t happy and of course Tim Duncan is not with the team. We do think the Spurs probably win this one as they have the talent edge but we had this line closer to five points and think that this is an inflated number tonight. |
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10-26-16 | Rockets v. Lakers +7 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Houston should not be favored by this many on the road against anyone. This team isn’t very good this season and all the offense in the world won’t matter if you can’t play defense. Say what you will about Dwight Howard, but he was a solid defensive player and his presence will be missed. We think the Lakers can be a solid betting team, at least early in the season. This team has an excellent coach in Luke Walton and they don’t have the whole Kobe Bryant retirement party hanging over their head. Last season that was a big distraction. But this team has plenty of young talent and there should be a lot of excitement in the Staples Center tonight and we see this as a close game and the Lakers certainly can notch the win here if they play well. Houston has dominated this series in the past but these teams are closer now than they have been in a few years. |
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10-26-16 | Wolves +1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Minnesota has played well in this series, covering six of the last eight meetings. And this Minnesota club is the best version we have seen during that time. This team is going to be really good this year and they have a great shot to make the playoffs. They should come into this season opener anxious to get the season off to a strong start. Memphis is a team that seems to be trending downward. Their championship window has closed and this should be another transitional year for this club. The Grizzlies are also very banged up heading into the new season. Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau will want to get off to a fast start with his young, energetic team, and the Wolves were a solid bet on the road last season and we expect them to notch a win in the season opener tonight. |
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10-26-16 | Hornets -2 v. Bucks | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
We think the Bucks are in tough here for the season opener on Wednesday. This team lost their leading scorer, Khris Middleton, to a hamstring injury and he is out until late in the season. That hurts what we consider an already-thin roster. The Hornets have some new faces but this is a more veteran club than what will be across the court tonight and they are primed for a strong effort on the road here. The Hornets are the much better club at this point, and we had this line handicapped at 5 with a lean to the road team at that number so we think there is great value here tonight. This is a game the public will largely ignore but they value is there. Charlotte has won three of the last four meetings, covering in two straight. |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
We like Portland a lot and had this game handicapped at 8.5 so we think there is some nice value on opening night. The Jazz are real banged up to start the season and that is not a good sign on the road, where the Jazz have traditionally struggled in the past. The Blazers have won and covered both of the last two meetings here at home and they have covered in three of four in this series. Leading scorer Gorgon Hayward will be out here and Derrick Favors might miss the game as well. The team just doesn’t seem very confident right now with these injuries and working some new players in the mix. The Blazers will want to get off to a strong start here in front of the home fans, and they have the better team on the floor at this point of the season. We just expect a real strong showing from the home team and Damian Lillard will be the best player on the court tonight and lead his team to a comfortable win on the home court. |
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10-23-16 | Bucs -1 v. 49ers | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #471 Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The 49ers just do not have much talent on either side of the football. Their fan base has turned on them and thus they will receive no edge playing this game in Santa Clara. Tampa Bay has numerous problems of their own but they have won two of their last three road games against better teams that what they will see on Sunday from San Francisco. The 49ers have lost five games in a row and are getting worn down in the second half of most of their games. San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings -2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 10-21 | Loss | -109 | 120 h 44 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #453 Take Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Eagles are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games to mediocre teams (Detroit & Washington) and now must face the best defense in the league. QB Carson Wentz is starting to get found out and one must remember that he is still a rookie and set the bar so high during the first three weeks of the season. Philadelphia did not score an offensive touchdown last week and their vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks giving up 231 rushing yards last week at Washington. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. |
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10-23-16 | Saints v. Chiefs -6 | 21-27 | Push | 0 | 68 h 33 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #456 Take Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We were on the Chiefs last week in Oakland and they did not disappoint winning by 16 points and now they face a team that cannot stop anybody especially on the road. New Orleans is surrendering the most points in the NFL at over 33 points per game. Kansas City has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 Week 7 games. |
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10-22-16 | Oregon State v. Washington -36.5 | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #378 Take Washington Huskies over Oregon State Beavers (Saturday 6:30 pm PAC-12 Network) This is a ton of points to be giving in a conference game but I do not believe Oregon State will be able to field a competitive team for this game. The Beavers lost their top two quarterbacks in consecutive plays last week against Utah and I believe Coach Anderson just wants to take a beating but get through this game relatively healthy. Washington has not been great by any means over the last 10 years but they have still pounded Oregon State the last four years going 4-0 ATS/Straight-up winning the last three by an average of 37 points per game. Now they are loaded on both sides of the football and they can name their score in this game. The line has skyrocketed but I still not believe it is higher enough. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #401 Take Auburn Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The line on this game is very telling! Both teams have two losses and Arkansas is ranked higher than Auburn the polls yet the Tigers come in as close to a double-digit favorite. Arkansas had to run the gauntlet the first three weeks of conference play with games against Texas A & M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. It is hard to believe that they will have much left in the tank for this game especially since they have yet to have a bye this year (this is their 8th game in 8 weeks). Auburn is coming off a bye and they enter this game on a three game winning streak. Auburn lost a 4OT game to Arkansas last year but Auburn is trending way up in 2016. The Tigers are 12th in the country in rushing and the Razorbacks are 80th in the country in rushing defense. |
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10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia -5.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #326 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Do not like to play a team we went against the week before but West Virginia has something very few teams in the Big XII have ever seen: A DEFENSE! Texas Tech has a better offense than TCU does and West Virginia shut them down for sixty minutes TCU struggled to put away Kansas last week and they will be in for a rude awakening today in Morgantown. TCU has allowed 41 points in three games this season and I expect WVU to get that mark as well. This line should be double digits and we will take full advantage of a favorable situation. |
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10-22-16 | Memphis v. Navy +2.5 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #372 Take Navy Midshipmen +2.5 over Memphis Tigers (Saturday 3:30 pm CBSSN) The Midshipmen are coming off a long break and will be ready to crack some pads on Saturday in Annapolis. Navy beat Memphis last year by a score of 45-20 rushing for 374 yards and expect more of the same on Saturday. Memphis is playing their third road game in four weeks and they have a new coach this season with new systems on both sides of the football. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played during the month of October. Navy is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games. |
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10-22-16 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +4 | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 37 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. #334 Take Iowa Hawkeyes +4 over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) TOP NCAA PLAY OF THE WEEK. Hard for Wisconsin to get up for this game as they continue to run the gauntlet of this brutal schedule. Wisconsin is banged up at a couple of key positions on both sides of the football and they should not be this big of a favorite on the road in Iowa City. The underdog has covered the spread 8 times in Wisconsin’s last 10 games. Iowa won last year in Madison and I see them taking this game down to the wire as well and pulling out the victory. Do not be fooled by the score last week at Purdue, as Iowa dominated that game before pulling their starters and allowing Purdue to score points late in that game (Purdue still fired their coach). This is the biggest rivalry for fans and Iowa needs a marquee win to this year and I expect them to get it on Saturday. Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game. |
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10-22-16 | NC State v. Louisville -19 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #338 Take Louisville Cardinals -19.5 over NC State Wolfpack (Saturday 12 pm ABC) Great spot for the Cardinals to be getting the Wolfpack. NC State is playing their second straight road against a Top 7 team and they have got to be upset after missing a short field goal that would have beaten Clemson last week. I do not believe they will have much left in the tank facing a Louisville team that needs to impress the selection committee to keep their playoff hopes alive. NC State has not been lighting up the scoreboard of late, and that does not bode well when facing an offense as explosive as Louisville, led by Lamar Jackson, the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. NC State is 6-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games as an underdog on the road. Louisville has won two straight conference games against NC State, and they will complete the trifecta on Saturday. |
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10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 40 m | Show | |
10 Unit Play. #274 Take Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) The Packers are one of the few teams that get very little credit for winning ugly. That was the case last Sunday Night against a team that beat by 7 points. This is the game Giants team that beat Dallas in Week 1 on the season on the road. The Cowboys have yet to get in sync with the deep ball and I expect a letdown in this game, as this is the toughest test they will have faced this season. Green Bay is 19-9 in their last 28 games as a home favorite against a non-divisional team. The Packers have been giving up less than 43 yards per game on the ground and that does not bode well for the Cowboys. Beating soft teams is one thing, but this will be the best team Dallas has faced this season and the line is three point short. Many are jumping on the Cowboys bandwagon and this is just creating value with the Packers at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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10-16-16 | 49ers +8 v. Bills | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. #261 Take San Francisco 49ers over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK. Colin Kaepernick is back. Can he really be any worse than what Blaine Gabbert has been doing? That being said, Buffalo is not good enough to be giving this many points against any team in the league. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC West teams. They are also 3-11 straight up in games when they face Miami the following week. Jeff Fisher made some really strange calls last week and despite losing by double digits they actually outgained Buffalo in that match-up at the Coliseum. Not much to like about San Francisco, but they are coming off 10 days’ rest and they can’t play terrible every week. Expect them to take this game down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes out on top. |
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10-15-16 | UNLV v. Hawaii -9 | 41-38 | Loss | -102 | 104 h 7 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #210 Take Hawaii Warriors over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 11:59 pm themwc.com) Apparently Hawaii got respectable again! They will enter this game having won two straight games including back-to-back blowout wins against MWC teams that are better than UNLV (Nevada & San Jose State). UNLV appears to have taken a step back this season under Coach Tony Sanchez having lost three of their last four games. Their loss to San Diego State was not as close as the 26-7 final would indicate as the Rebels completed just two passes and just 122 yards of total offense. UNLV is lacking talent at the wide receiver position with just three scholarship players and that does not bode well with a young quarterback as well. This is homecoming for the Warriors and a win here will give them a great shot at making a bowl game. UNLV is 21-48 ATS (4 pushes) in their last 73 road games. Hawaii has covered the spread in four of their last five games. |
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10-15-16 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +10 | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 101 h 29 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #196 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Beating Rutgers has overvalued both Michigan and Ohio State. This will be the best defense Ohio State will have faced to this point in the season. Ohio State’s offense is their strength but Wisconsin’s defense is by far their strength. Wisconsin is coming off a bye and will be able to move the football much better at home compared to their last game in Ann Arbor. This is a night game and the crowd will be engaged early and ready to help lead their team to a victory. Finally, Wisconsin just does not get blown out in many games. Yes, they were pounded two years ago in the Big 10 Championship Game but most of their losses over the last decade have come by single digits. Wisconsin is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye. |
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10-15-16 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +1 | 48-17 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 21 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #156 Take Texas Tech Red Raiders over West Virginia Mountaineers (Saturday 12 pm FS1) West Virginia has not handled prosperity well under Dana Holgorsen and he seems to be on the hot seat every year. The Red Raiders are a much tougher team in Lubbock and will have revenge on their minds as they blew a double digit lead in Morgantown last season. West Virginia is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye. This is also their first true road game of the season for WVU. Texas Tech will give up yards but I see them winning this game straight-up. West Virginia is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Texas Tech has covered the spread in five straight Big 12 games. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 50 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #469 Take San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.The Chargers get up for this game and have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings (won both meetings last year). The Chargers are playing good football; they are just blowing leads in the fourth quarter. Oakland has never handled being the favorite well, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when they are favored at the Coliseum. Taking these stats even further, the underdog in this series has covered the spread in 13 of the last 14 games. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 on the season, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. San Diego is scoring over 30 points per game, and Oakland is in the bottom three in yards allowed (rushing and passing). The stats all favor the Chargers, and expect them to protect the football and win this game straight-up. |
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10-09-16 | Falcons +6 v. Broncos | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #465 Atlanta Falcons over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) All three of these selections fall into a same category. We are going against an undefeated team and getting points. These three teams (Minnesota, Philadelphia, & Denver) and good solid teams but they are by no means super teams. Denver and Minnesota have issues on offense and Philadelphia is starting a young quarterback and teams will soon have a book on and thus he will struggle some. The teams getting points have numerous playmakers on offense that can move the football and if they do not turn over the football I expect all three of these games to go down to the wire putting us in great shape to collect with the underdog. These are not sexy picks but I feel at the end of the day Sunday we will collect with two of them and have a chance to win all three of these picks. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #462 Take Detroit Lions over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) All three of these selections fall into a same category. We are going against an undefeated team and getting points. These three teams (Minnesota, Philadelphia, & Denver) and good solid teams but they are by no means super teams. Denver and Minnesota have issues on offense and Philadelphia is starting a young quarterback and teams will soon have a book on and thus he will struggle some. The teams getting points have numerous playmakers on offense that can move the football and if they do not turn over the football I expect all three of these games to go down to the wire putting us in great shape to collect with the underdog. These are not sexy picks but I feel at the end of the day Sunday we will collect with two of them and have a chance to win all three of these picks. |
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10-09-16 | Texans +6.5 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 17 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #451 Take Houston Texans over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm CBS) All three of these selections fall into a same category. We are going against an undefeated team and getting points. These three teams (Minnesota, Philadelphia, & Denver) and good solid teams but they are by no means super teams. Denver and Minnesota have issues on offense and Philadelphia is starting a young quarterback and teams will soon have a book on and thus he will struggle some. The teams getting points have numerous playmakers on offense that can move the football and if they do not turn over the football I expect all three of these games to go down to the wire putting us in great shape to collect with the underdog. These are not sexy picks but I feel at the end of the day Sunday we will collect with two of them and have a chance to win all three of these picks. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -6 | 31-14 | Loss | -106 | 98 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #324 Take Michigan State Spartans over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) BYU going independent has been a disaster for this program. They cannot get a balanced schedule and they are beat up having played one of the nation’s most difficult schedule. Everyone of their games have been close but I truly believe they will struggle to win one of their next four games. Taysom Hill struggled to throw the football last week against Toledo but was saved by a big running game from Jamaal Williams. I do not believe BYU will be able to run over Michigan State like he did Toledo. BYU has not even close to stopping Toledo last Friday night and this is clearly a get well game for Michigan State’s offense. Taysom Hill is a terrible quarterback in Ty Detmer’s systems and expect Michigan State to frustrate them for 60 minutes. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 10-24 | Loss | -101 | 152 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #277 Take New York Giants over Minnesota Vikings (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Vikings are sky high at the moment and will return home for Game No. 2 at US Bank Stadium with a perfect 3-0 record. The Giants are coming off a home loss to the Redskins and this game means more to them looking to bounce back and improve to 3-1 on the season. This will be far and away the best receiving core the Vikings have faced this season and if New York does not turn over the football they can win this game straight-up. Every game that the Giants have played this season has gone down to the wire (6 points total difference in 3 games) and we will gladly take the points in this game. Sooner or later injuries are going to catch up to the Vikings. |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers +3 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #270 Take San Francisco 49ers over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Dallas is coming off back to back victories but they do not warrant being a favorite on the road against anybody in the league. Chip Kelly always seems to bounce back well after losses going 9-2 off a road loss in his previous game. San Francisco was terrible last season but they were pretty tough at home allowing just an average of 17 points per game in this 8 contest (allowed 0 points in their only home game this season). San Francisco is 9-3 (1 push) in their last 13 games as a home underdog. We will gladly grab the field goal with a pair of similar teams. |
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10-01-16 | Utah State v. Boise State -19.5 | Top | 10-21 | Loss | -105 | 106 h 48 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #214 Take Boise State Broncos over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) The Mountain West is a battle between two teams for the top spot and Utah Stat is not one of those teams. Boise State has traditionally dominated this league and this match-up going 12-1 against Utah State. That being said the Broncos were embarrassed last year in Logan losing 52-26 despite being a 9-point favorite. That loss was solely on the play of the Broncos giving away the game with 8 turnovers. Utah State has been on a downward trend after reaching the pinnacle in 2012 going 11-2. They lost to Akron last year in a bowl game (The Zips first ever bowl win) and they are just 2-2 this season. Coach Matt Wells has messed up the offense with a rotation of numerous quarterbacks over the last couple of years and now falls to Kent Myers, a former wide receiver. He showed some promise earlier in his career but like most of their quarterbacks has gotten worse the more he plays and gets coached. The Broncos are back to normal and they are on a mission to run the table and still have an outside shot at a spot in the college football playoff if San Diego State continues to win games as well. Their game last week against Oregon State was not as close as the final score would indicate and you can be sure they will not take this game lightly whatsoever. Utah State is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games. The last time these two teams met in Boise is was a 50-19 victory for the Broncos and that was against a more talented Aggies team that what they will see on Saturday. |
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10-01-16 | Wake Forest v. NC State -10.5 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show | |
7 Unit Play. #190 Take NC State Wolfpack over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday 3:30 pm ACC Network) When the Wolfpack win it tends to come by double digits, and that sets up a nice situation on Saturday afternoon in Raleigh. The last three home games against Wake Forest for NC State have been bloodbaths, with the home team winning by 35,31, & 29 points. NC State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Wake Forest is off of a deceiving victory against Indiana in which they were outgained by 259 yards but were the beneficiary of five turnovers. That good fortune ends this afternoon. NC State is 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games following a bye in their previous week. |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -3 | 45-32 | Loss | -101 | 104 h 30 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. Take #490 New Orleans Saints -3 over Atlanta Falcons (8:30 PM, Monday, September 26, ESPN) The New Orleans Saints will look for their first win of the 2016 season when they take on the Atlanta Falcons at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA on Monday night. The Saints have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games following a straight up loss and they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games where they faced an NFC South Division rival. The Falcons, on the other hand, have been awful in the spot they are in here on Monday night as they have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have failed to cover the number in nine of their last ten games versus a team from the NFC. Throw in the fact that home team has gone an excellent 7-2 ATS in the last nine head to head meetings between the two teams and we'll lay the field goal or so here with the Saints to get the home win and cover over the Falcons on Monday night in New Orleans. |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 90 h 58 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #468 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pm CBS) AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. The line on this game tells me a great deal. The Jaguars have been a doormat for most of their existence and are 0-2 facing a 2-0 team. Yet this is a pick’em game and all of the public will be lining up to put down their money on Baltimore. That being said Baltimore was outplayed by Cleveland last week and going on the road for a second consecutive week will be too much for them to overcome. If Baltimore holds as a favorite once must consider the stat of 2-10 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here as many experts believe that this is a talented enough roster to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC this season. Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored less than 15 points. This is not a sexy pick but like Los Angeles last week it is one that should grab the money. |
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09-24-16 | Louisville v. Marshall +26 | 59-28 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 50 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #352 Take Marshall Thundering Herd over Louisville Cardinal (Saturday 8 pm CBSSN) The whole country is fascinated with Louisville at the moment and thus this line is way too high for a true road game against a traditionally strong mid-major. This is the definition of a trap game for Louisville coming off their most impressive win in school history and will likely be facing an undefeated Clemson team next week. These are still college kids and I just do not see them getting up to play a mid-major. Marshall beat Louisville in Kentucky the last time these two teams faced off against one another (Teddy Bridgewater played in that game). Marshall is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games. |
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09-24-16 | Florida v. Tennessee -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 97 h 16 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #384 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) I just cannot get out of my head how well Tennessee played to close out the 2015 season. Sooner or later they will get back to that level since they return most of their 2015 talent. It has not really happened this season but this is the game they will breakout and performance at a high level. They have no excuses not to be up for this game since Florida has beaten them 11 straight years. But the Gators will be without their starting quarterback and that does not bode well playing in a hostile environment. All three of Tennessee’s victories this season have come over the posted number for today’s game. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #302 Take New England Patriots over Houston Texans (Thursday 8:25 pm CBS) This line is an overreaction to the New England quarterback situation. Houston has never been a serious Super Bowl contender and always just a fringe playoff team. New England has a strong defense and if they take care of the football I see them winning this game straight-up. There is not greater advantage than playing at home on Thursday night and that will proof true yet again. New England is 19-7 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 28 home games. This will be a close game throughout but the Patriots find a way to win and keep their undefeated record intact. Houston is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. |
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09-18-16 | Packers -1 v. Vikings | 14-17 | Loss | -120 | 126 h 26 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #287 Take Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Vikings will open up US Bank Stadium with a regular season game against their archrival, the Green Bay Packers. Minnesota was dealt a huge blow with the loss of Teddy Bridgewater and it will be interesting to see who they start at quarterback this week. Regardless they will try to win with their defense and by running the football with Adrian Peterson. I just do not believe that is enough to beat the Packers with a healthy Aaron Rogers and Jordy Nelson. Green Bay has covered the spread in 20 of their last 30 NFC North games. Minnesota was in trouble last week against Tennessee before scoring two defensive touchdowns to take control of that game. Minnesota has been an ATS machine of late but that will change tonight as Green Bay pulls away late to win by double digits. |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams +7 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #280 Take Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) Nothing good can be said about the Rams performance last Monday in San Francisco. But this line is really inflated and nobody seems to remember how poorly the Seahawks played last Sunday as well. Seattle is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road openers. One must remember that these are all professionals, and I just do not believe there is much carryover from week to week in the NFL. Pride will take over for the Rams players, and they will put forth a much better effort on Sunday afternoon as they are welcomed back to the City of Angels. The Rams won both games with the Seahawks last season and have covered the spread in six of their last eight games. |
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09-17-16 | Oregon +3 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #167 Take Oregon Ducks over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 12:30 pm ABC) Nonconference Game of the Year. Do not be misled by the final score of the Wyoming – Nebraska game last week. It was 24-17 before Wyoming had four consecutive turnovers giving Nebraska 28 fourth quarter points and the cover. Oregon will not be as giving and will make Nebraska go the length of the field in order to score points. That is something QB Tommy Armstrong struggles to do, as he did not look that impressive last week and has trouble hitting is receivers in stride. Throw in the fact that Mike Riley is just 4-10 against Oregon and we will gladly take the points with the better and more talented team. The Ducks will never reach the heights they did under Marcus Mariota but they still have an explosive system that can put on points in the blink of the eye. Despite being a decent Michigan State team last year with the help of a controversial call, Nebraska has underperformed in big games through most of the last decade and whenever fans start to believe in this team they just lay an egg. Oregon is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games. The points are just icing on the cake as Oregon will win this game straight-up. |
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09-11-16 | Raiders v. Saints -1 | Top | 35-34 | Loss | -113 | 94 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #462 Take New Orleans Saints over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Raiders are our top selection in the preseason and will do so yet again in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Just feel this team is vastly overrated and people are forgetting how poorly they closed out the 2015 Regular Season. Although the Saints have not been as dominating in New Orleans the last couple of years compared to 2011-2013, it is still an extremely difficult place to play and something the Raiders have not done so in 8 years. It is always tough for a west coast team to play an early Sunday game and Oakland is just 1-18 straight-up when the game starts at 1 pm eastern time. Oakland is equally as bad on the road in general winning just 6 of their last 32 road games. Drew Brees is still the best player on the field and he has covered the spread against Oakland seven straight games. New Orleans covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in 2016. |
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09-10-16 | BYU v. Utah -3.5 | 19-20 | Loss | -100 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #384 Take Utah Utes over BYU Cougars (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) The Holy War is renewed after meeting last year in the Las Vegas Bowl. Utah has dominated this series of late winning five straight games and covering the spread in 4 of those 5 games. BYU has a new coach but is still one of the dirtiest teams in FBS football. That being said Utah is very familiar with their style and you can bet Coach Willingham will be well prepared for this game. The magic with Taysom Hill is gone as injuries have taken its toll on him and I do not believe he is as effective with his legs as he needs to be. It actually reminds me of Utah State last year with Chuckie Keaton, as he was just a shell of himself and not very good. Utah is the big brother in the state and expect them to flex their muscles yet again. I believe they have an upgrade over the previous years at quarterback in Troy Williams compared to the inconsistent Travis Wilson. BYU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Utah is 40-19 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 61 nonconference games. |
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09-10-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #364 Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) SEC Game of the Year. We went against the Bulldogs last week and won outright despite getting 28.5 points! Now the odds makers feel that the public will overreact to that game and put a pile of money on South Carolina since they won on the road last week in Nashville. That just sets up great for us and we will gladly lay less than a touchdown with a much better team that is used to the Dan Mullen system. Mississippi State should have knocked out South Alabama last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead before falling apart in the second half. South Carolina does not have a high powered offense and Will Muschamp was fired at Florida for his lack of innovation. South Carolina will not be able to cover this spread unless the score in the twenties and I expect them to struggle doing that. Both teams play multiple quarterbacks but Dan Mullen is the better offense coach and thus the Bulldogs will bounce back in a big way on Saturday. South Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SEC games. Beating Vanderbilt is one thing, but Mississippi State is clearly a step-up from that bottom feeder program and will be USC by double digits allowing us to collect big in the process. |
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09-10-16 | Utah State v. USC -16 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 66 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #380 Take USC Trojans over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 2 pm PAC-12 Network) I am not big on the Trojans but this is a get well game against another team trending downward. Utah State was under .500 last year including an embarrassing loss to Akron in the Potato Bowl. Now they must replace 8 starters on defense against a team that was humbled last week against the best team in college football for the last decade. USC has much more talent than does Utah State and the Aggies have lost 33 straight road games against Power 5 Conference teams. Utah State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. USC is 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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09-10-16 | Wyoming v. Nebraska -24.5 | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 69 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #378 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Wyoming Cowboys (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) the Cowboys are coming off a marathon game that was delayed by two hours and did not finish until the Sunday morning in Laramie. I just do not expect them to have much left in the tank for this cash game at Nebraska with an early start. Nebraska beat a better MWC team last week in Fresno State by 33 points and I see this game finishing around 33-35 points. Nebraska is starting to run the football better and they should be able to overpower the smaller Cowboys. Wyoming Coach Craig Bohl needs to show improvement or he may be out of a job come seasons end. He is a former coach at Nebraska with ties to Tom Osborne but those type of people no longer coach at Nebraska and thus I do not see them taking this game lightly or letting up at the end of the game. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against MWC teams. |
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09-03-16 | USC v. Alabama -11.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 101 h 12 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. #202 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over USC Trojans (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Just feel that USC is a team trending down and they have yet to find a coach after Pete Carroll to bring this team back to the promise land. Alabama will have a massive edge in crowd and they are very familiar in playing Arlington. USC did not get a bump from naming Clay Helton their permanent head coach, as they got blown out against Stanford and lost as a favorite in their bowl game against Wisconsin. Alabama has to replace a lot of talent but that was the case last year as well and they beat Wisconsin by 18 points and won a National Championship. Since 1999 the National Championship Winners is 17-0 in their opening game the following season with an average margin of victory of 29 points. I see them winning this game by around 20 points against an overrated USC team. The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. |
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09-03-16 | Hawaii v. Michigan -40 | Top | 3-63 | Win | 100 | 112 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #156 Take Michigan Wolverines over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) This is a ton of points to be laying but I just do not see anyway Hawaii keeps it close. Hawaii is faced with a brutal travel situation having played in Australia last Friday late night and now must come to Michigan this week. Hawaii faced two Big 10 teams last year in Wisconsin and Iowa and they failed to score a single point in either of those two games. I do not believe this Hawaii team is better than the 2015 version despite an upgrade in coaching. This is a complete rebuild for new coach and I believe they will lose this game by 50 points. Michigan is expecting big things this year and they could not ask for an easier start to the season with six of their first seven games at home. Michigan is 23-3 in home openers and if a bad Hawaii team can get pounded by Cal last week (backdoor covered that game) I just do not see that happening today. Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to take the foot of the peddle and allow Hawaii to backdoor cover this game. Michigan gets close to 60 points and wins this game and covers the spread. |
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09-01-16 | Appalachian State v. Tennessee -20 | 13-20 | Loss | -112 | 52 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #190 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Appalachian State Mountaineers (Thursday 7:30 pm SEC Network) The Mountaineers are coming off an impressive 11-2 season but the fact remains they are a low end mid-major program from a very low end FBS Conference. Tennessee is everyone’s darling this season and while I am not as high on them as most people, they still have a ton of talent. Butch Jones has struggled to win big games but this is certainly not one of them. Tennessee has blown out better mid-majors in their home opener the last two years (Utah State & Bowling Green) than what they will see on Thursday night in Appalachian State. I always believe the defense has the advantage when facing a run heavy team when they have more than one week to prepare. Tennessee wins this game by close to 30 points. The Volunteers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. |
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08-27-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 48 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #273 Take Tennessee Titans over Oakland Raiders (Saturday 8 pm CBS) The Raiders struggle to get fans and it will be even harder to draw fans for a Saturday preseason game that starts at 5 pm local time. Tennessee is coming off a disappointing performance last week against Carolina and expect them to play much better against a much lesser opponent on Saturday. Both teams have just three quarterbacks but I really believe all three of the Titans quarterbacks can move the football. Tennessee actually ran the ball well against a stout Carolina defense last week average 4 yards per carry with multiple back seeing action. As we saw last week with our San Francisco selection, it is just hard to lay this many points in exhibition play. A lot of people are high on Oakland this season but I am not one of them. One must remember that they lost six of their last nine games to close out the 2015 season. Take the points as we expect Tennessee to win straight-up and getting this many points is just icing on the cake. |
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08-20-16 | 49ers +4.5 v. Broncos | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 127 h 40 m | Show | |
10 Unit Play. #429 Take San Francisco over Denver (Saturday 9 pm) This line is a clear overreaction to Denver’s performance last Thursday against Chicago. They dominated that game from start to finish but I just do not see that happening again on Saturday. Kubiak has been a head coach for 10 years and he knows how preseason works. San Francisco played much better than their 13-point output would indicate last Sunday against Houston. Their first string players dominated that game but turnovers did them in. Expect them to win this game straight-up and getting points is just icing on the cake. |
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08-20-16 | Panthers v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. #419 Take Carolina Panthers over Tennessee Titans (Saturday 3 pm) We will again go with Carolina after a tough defeat last week when I touchdown was taken off the board for running off the field. The Panthers quarterback rotation is just too good not to win some preseason games. Bad calls did them in during Week 1 but that will not be the case on Saturday. |
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08-13-16 | Cowboys v. Rams -3.5 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 53 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. #278 Take Los Angeles Rams over Dallas Cowboys (Saturday 8 pm ESPN) I do not like the Rams quarterback rotation much but this game just means so much more to them than it does the Cowboys. Dallas has quarterback injuries to worry about with their top guy and thus expect Dak Prescott and Jameill Showers to play most of this game. The fans in Los Angeles are excited for this game and that along will propel them to a victory. |
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08-11-16 | Broncos v. Bears | Top | 22-0 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
1 Unit Play. #262 Take Chicago Bears over Denver Broncos (Thursday 8 pm) Game just means more to coach John Fox, the former coach of the Denver Broncos. By winning the Super Bowl they year after John Fox left Denver, Coach Kubiak has nothing to prove in this game. Expect Paxton Lunch to struggle playing most of the second half for Denver, a team that did not have a very good offense last year. Coach Fox is 10-4 straight-up in Week 1 of the exhibition season during his 14 years as a head coach. Chicago dominated Week 1 last year beating the Dolphins by 17 points and expect a similar result tonight at Soldier Field. |
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08-11-16 | Panthers +1.5 v. Ravens | 19-22 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 19 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. #257 Take Carolina Panthers over Baltimore Ravens (Thursday 7:30 pm) The Panthers have a rock solid three-man quarterback rotation of Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, and Joe Webb. All of them have experience playing in the regular season and they are better than all of their counterparts that the Ravens have. Baltimore was ravaged by injuries last season and expect them to take a cautious approach during the exhibition season. Would go higher but Coach Harbaugh has an impressive record in Week 1 of exhibition play. That being said, I expect the Panthers to dominate the second half of this game and win straight-up. Getting points in just icing on the cake. |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
7-Unit Play. Take #956 St. Louis (-1.5 RL) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Monday, Aug. 8) The Cards gotta have it. They simply have to have this game. They are sinking like a stone in the N.L. but they are still in the Wild Card race. They just gave away a series to an awful Braves team and now the Cards have to regroup and beat back one of their most hated rivals. The Cards just lost a series to last-place Cincy last week. Now they have a chance to get some revenge here. And they are backing perhaps their best pitcher, Michael Wacha. Wacha has gone 10 straight starts allowing three runs or less. He isn't going deep into games. But we've seen this guy dominate during his four years in the Majors and he is finding his form. Cody Reed, on the other hand, is a train wreck. He is another pitcher that shouldn't be in the Majors. He has a 7.30 ERA in eight games and has allowed less than four runs exactly one time - against the putrid Braves. Reed has given up at least five runs in five of his last seven starts, while going more than five full innings just once. The Cards are one of the highest scoring teams in the Majors against lefties and they just saw him last week, touching him up for five runs in five innings. I think it is more of the same today. |
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07-21-16 | Padres v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take #958 St. Louis (-1.5 RL) over San Diego (7 p.m., Thursday, July 21) I am going right back to them for my National League Game of the Year here on Thursday! The Cardinals pulled the sweep yesterday, hitting the runline in the first game and then winning 3-2 in the second. That's now three straight win over the Padres and I think the Cardinals will win big again today. This St. Louis team knows it needs to play great baseball down the stretch to have a prayer at catching the Cubs or making the playoffs. This is one of the best organizations in baseball and I think they are going to be strong in the second half. The Cardinals have dominated this series for nearly a decade! St. Louis has gone 48-15 at home against the Padres and are 86-40 in their last 126 games against San Diego overall. Today the Cards are going with Adam Wainwright, the staff leader. They are 40-17 in his last 57 home starts and 40-19 when he starts on regular rest. Wainwright has three straight quality starts and a 0.39 ERA in those outings. He has thrown seven of eight quality starts and has been awesome at home this year. The Padres are going with Andrew Cashner. He has been a huge disappointment and has an ERA over 5.00 on the season. Cashner has been even worse on the road! He has lost four straight road starts and has a 7.83 ERA this season away from home. Everything in this game points to the Cardinals winning and winning big. Take St. Louis. |
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06-20-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #916 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) It's now clear that what we saw from the Chicago White Sox earlier this season was just a mirage. After leading the way in the American League in April and into May, the White Sox have gone 10-26 since. And it's not just one part of their team that's been letting them down; it's literally every component of the club. Even the once strong starting rotation is starting to falter in a big way. Miguel Gonzalez has somehow been one of the steadier guys for the starting staff lately, but that's not going to last for very long. There's a reason he was jettisoned from Baltimore earlier this season, and the White Sox don't necessarily have a reputation for turning guys' careers around (see Mat Latos and James Shields). Gonzalez comes in with a 4.74 ERA on the season and he's waking nearly four batters per nine innings. Tonight he faces the best offense in baseball and doesn't stand much of a chance of going more than five innings. That means the Chicago bullpen will get plenty of work, and they've been a disaster over the last few weeks. Knuckleballer Steven Wright goes for Boston and his having a dream season. He doesn't need to be too fine tonight, as the Red Sox should give him plenty of run support. Take Boston. |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This series has played out pretty much to a T how we thought it would and we always thought that Golden State would end up winning this thing so that is our strong side play for Game 7 on Sunday. A team is never as bad as their last bad game, and we think the Warriors will have a great rebound game here. They have one of the best home-court advantages in pro sports and the crowd will be rocking here for Game 7. In Game 6 we predicted the refs would play a big part in the game and that ended up being the case. But Cleveland didn’t really need the refs as they won the game fair and square. Golden State, however, did a good job at coming back from a big early deficit and they just kind of fell apart there at the end of the game. The game was closer to us than the final score indicated and the Warriors were in early foul trouble that threw them off their game. But we would have been happy with anything under 8 for Game 7 and we were thrilled when we saw the opening line. We really like the Warriors all the way up to double digits and think they should win this game pretty easily. The Warriors have the better team and better coach, and they will find a way to make adjustments and get the job done. Just as we said in our Game 6 writeup, we didn’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland and we just don’t see the Cavs winning two in a row in Golden State. The Warriors haven’t lost three in a row all season and Curry and company will be very motivated here and the cream will rise to the top on Sunday and the seserving team will come away with the trophy. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
The Cavs grabbed the momentum in this series with a Game 5 win in the Bay Area. The Warriors were without Draymond Green in that one and he will be back here. But that was a pretty dominant win and we’re not so sure that Green would have made a difference there. The Warriors are a great team – one of the best in NBA history. But most of their damage has been done at home, and they now have 12 road losses on the season. Cleveland has lost only nine games at home. We just don’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland, and Cleveland really seems to have found their groove in this series. They played excellent defense in Game 5, and it was a bit disconcerting to see the Warriors basically give up at the end of that game when things began to look out of reach for a comeback. Also, even though the NBA is not “rigged” like a lot of people thing, certain stars and teams get preferential treatment, especially at home. The NBA stands to make millions upon millions if this series goes to Game 7, and with two of the three biggest stars in the game competing on this stage and with how compelling this series has been you know the league really wants this one to go to Game 7. So we are pretty sure the Cavs will get preferential treatment from the refs if this game is close, and even if a couple extra calls go their way that can make a huge difference in a close game. Game 5 is a crucial one for teams up 3-1 to close the series out, especially on their home court. We saw some examples of this recently with the Rockets coming back from 3-1 against the Clippers after LA blew Game 5. And in these same playoffs we saw the Warriors recapture the momentum against the Thunder by winning Game 5 to come back and win their series in seven games. Golden State really put themselves in a bad position by not taking care of business in Game 5. We expect this series to be pushed to Game 7 and think the Cavs are the only way to play this one. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
We always thought that the Cavs would win one game at home in this series and that’s why we stayed away from the side in Game 3 and went with the total for our big play. But now that the Cavs got that win out of the way we think there’s a great chance that the Warriors take this game and put the Cavs on the brink of elimination here. The Warriors have lost consecutive games only once this season, last series against Oklahoma City, and we just don’t see two bad games in a row from them. They are the better team in our eyes even though this team has been prone to some off games late in the season and in the playoffs like we saw in Game 3 of these finals. Curry has not done much in this series and we think it’s very doubtful that he doesn’t go off for a big night and very soon. And there’s no reason it can’t happen here in Game 4. His slumps don’t last long and this guy lives for the big stage like this. This is one of the best-coached teams in the league (something that can’t be said for Cleveland) so the Warriors have the players and coaching to bounce back from a bad-looking loss like Game 3 and we think they will make the necessary adjustments to play a much more competitive game. Love should be back here for Cleveland and he has been very ineffective this whole series and we don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team thrived with him out of the lineup in Game 3 and until he shows he can play a lot better under the major spotlight we have to think he might hold the team back. We had this line at Warriors -2.5 for this game based on our ratings and we have to feel that they can pull it out and getting the extra points here just helps us immensely in case there is a last-second winning shot at the end of the game for the Cavs. But overall we think the Warriors will step up the defense and you won’t see near as much success out of Cleveland for Game 4 on the offensive end. We think the Warriors offense will wake up here (this team seems to respond well to a wakeup call as they did when going down to OKC 3-1 in that series). Take the Warriors plus the points for Game 4. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
We were pretty sure that the Warriors were a solid and strong favorite coming into this series and their Game 1 domination just solidified our stance. The west is just so much stronger than the east and we think the Warriors faced their toughest test in the Western Conference Finals in their win over Oklahoma City, a team that was playing as well as any team in the league at the time. Cleveland was a trendy pick for an upset in this series, but we just don’t see it. Yes, they are healthier than last season. Yes, they have looked awesome in the playoffs so far. But besides LeBron what have the core players on this team done in the past? Irving and Love had absolutely no success before they linked up with LeBron and that just goes to show us that these guys aren’t true leaders. Look at DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. He is the type of player that should lead his team to the playoffs every year. But he always comes up short. We put these guys from Cleveland in the same category until they prove us wrong. Curry and Thompson could not get anything going in Game 1 and the Warriors still recorded a blowout. Doubt those guys are going to be held in check for two straight games at home. There are two nights off before this game and that really benefits the home team here and we see them rolling again in this one by 10+ points. You would expect that the bookies would make this line about 5 if they thought Cleveland had a chance to play better in Game 2 so we think it’s very telling that they made this line larger than the Game 1 number and that tells us the bookies are confident in the Warriors as well. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -6 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
While we think this will be a long series and there will certainly be spots to go with Cleveland later in the series we think the Warriors are clearly the play in Game 1. With a few nights off and in front of the home crowd we think that Golden State will come out with a strong performance here. They just overcame long odds to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series against the Thunder in seven games. They are the more battle tested team here and we think they have better momentum. The Cavs haven’t really been tested this playoffs and even in their series against Toronto they faced an overmatched team. The extra rest here benefits the Warriors and we think the road team could be rusty here. Golden State has covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and we think they take Game 1 by eight or more points. |
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