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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-19 | Tigers +135 v. Twins | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) I like Detroit to bounce back in Game 1 of this double header after falling 6-0 in yesterday’s series opener. While the Twins’ have gotten unreal pitching of late, their starter today Michael Pineda, has struggled this year and I think he’ll get lit up by the hungry Tigers as well. Pineda is 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA. The Tigers come in desperate after getting shutout in back-to-back games. Spencer Turnbull is 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and while he has struggled against the Twins in the past, he comes in off a great victory vs. the Royals, giving up one run off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings. A great spot bet and unreal value on the pitcher in better current form. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-11-19 | Mariners +174 v. Red Sox | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) I think the Red Sox are going to suffer a classic letdown here after yesterday’s big 14-1 series opening victory. The M’s won’t be lacking for motivation today after losing ten of their last 12. Felix Hernandez is only 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA, but he catches a break in facing Rick Porcello, who is just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA. Let’s call these veteran hurlers “even” for this one. Boston is only a game over .500, so its long-term form is in question here as well. Additionally note that Seattle is still 17-13 (+5.2 units) this season vs. right-handed starters, while Boston is only 5-10 (-13.1 units) this year in all day games. Great value on the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 M’s. |
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05-10-19 | Phillies v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Royals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this one has “duel” written all over it. The Phillies took the final two games of their series vs. the Cards, outscoring them 16-1 in the process. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Jake Arrieta, who is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The veteran has gone at least six innings in seven of hits last eight starts. KC is only 13-25 overall so far, including just 8-11 at home. KC is struggling at the plate, as in Wednesday’s 9-0 loss at Houston it would strike out 17 times. The home side counters with Homer Bailey, who is 3-3 with a 5.25 ERA. Bailey most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a 15-3 win over the Tigers on Saturday. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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05-10-19 | Yankees +126 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* MONEY-MAKER) Each team sends its ace to the hill. This is a battle of division and AL leaders and I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the upset in Game 1. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side goes with Tyler Glasnow. German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) enters on top form having won three straight, most recently going seven innings vs. the Twins on Sunday, giving up one run in the 4-1 victory. Glasnow (6-0, 1.47) gave up three hits over seven scoreless vs. the toothless Orioles on Friday. Despite injuries to sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, the Yanks have gone 16-6. I think Glasnow’s early remarkable numbers are unsustainable and while regression is also imminent in German’s future, I believe the Rays’ hurler has farther to fall. I’m banking on the hungry visiting side stealing Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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05-09-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +107 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 107 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks (10* TRADE-MARK) I had a play on the Diamondbacks in their 3-2, 13 inning win over the Rays yesterday. I like Arizona to build off that win, facing a Braves team which is struggling at the plate. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starers a “wash.” Mike Soroka and Luke Weaver faced off in Atlanta at the start of the year and Arizona won 5-1. Both were great in that game and each has been strong since. The Braves though enter after getting swept in LA and I think they’ll have a hard time producing much offense here either. Arizona on the other hand is already 13-7 (+7.3 units) this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Great value on the hot home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-09-19 | White Sox +190 v. Indians | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8* BLOWOUT) The Indians are overpriced here, as they continue to struggle at the plate. Cleveland won 5-3 on a walk off home run by Jose Ramirez last night, but previous to that it has been outscored 21-1 during a three-game losing streak. The visitors hand the ball to Manny Banuelos, who is 2-1 with a 5.96 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget, giving up nine runs off ten straight hits in the third inning of his last start. Previous to that though Banuelos had been sharp, so I’m not going to over-react to one bad performance. He catches a break here as well facing the volatile Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-3 with a 5.60 ERA. Carrasco also enters off a terrible start, getting shelled for four home runs vs. the Mariners on Saturday. Note that Chicago is already 4-1 (+6.6 units) this season as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Cleveland is a brutal 5-9 (-8.1 units) vs. the division thus far. I think the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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05-08-19 | Diamondbacks +137 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* BEST OF BEST) The Diamondbacks have cooled off dramatically now that Interleague play has started. Tampa has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the hungry visiting side will bounce back and take the finale this afternoon. It won’t be easy facing Charlie Morton, who is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA this season. He’s also 5-1 with a 3.68 ERA in nine career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visiting side hands the ball to Robbie Ray, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Tampa is surging right now at 11 games over .500, but note that it’s still a poor 1-3 (-2.8 units) this season at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. Additionally note that Arizona is still 8-3 (+7 units) this year as a road dog of +100 to +150. I think Tampa finally has a letdown here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-07-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Jays under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Twins’ Jose Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while the Jays Aaron Sanchez has also gotten out to a great start by going 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Minnesota won 8-0 in the series opener last night and overall Minnesota has won eight of its last 11. Toronto continues to struggle with consistency at the plate and I think it’ll have a difficult time here facing Berrios as well. Toronto’s lone bright spot on the mound this year continues to be Sanchez and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continues his progress as well. This one has “duel” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. |
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05-07-19 | White Sox +145 v. Indians | Top | 2-0 | Win | 145 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BEST OF BEST). The White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill and he’s so far 2-1 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with two walks with seven K’s in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Thursday. Giolito has had issues with the Tribe in the past, but I think he’ll make the most of this situation, as Cleveland is forced to call up Jefry Rodriguez from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. He’s 0-1 with a 2.13 ERA, but there’s no doubt this is a difficult assignment on short notice. Chicago took Game 1 of this series 9-1 yesterday and I think the hungry Sox, with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, offer brat value to do it again on Tuesday. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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05-06-19 | Mets v. Padres +110 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (10* TRADE-MARK) I think these pitchers are a “wash.” Jacob DeGrom is 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA for the Mets, while Chris Paddack is 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA. Paddack has been dominant, especially at home. I think the late West Coast game is detrimental to the visitors here. Also note that the Mets are just 8-12 vs. teams with winning records, while SD is 7-4 this year after having lost two of its lats three games. Great value on Paddack. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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05-04-19 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8*) Washington came up short in its first game vs. ex team mate Bryce Harper and the Phillies last night, but I think it offers great value to bounce back in the second. The Nationals have now lost ten of their last 14, but they have to be feeling good that they can break the slide with Patrick Corbin on the mound as he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta who is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA. Corbin is 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts vs. the Phillies for his career and I think he’ll help his desperate team-mates “get off the schneid.” T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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05-04-19 | Cardinals +104 v. Cubs | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) After yesterday’s 4-0 defeat, I look for the Cards to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. St. Louis hands the ball to Michael Wacha, who is 2-0 with a 4.78 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Yu Darvish, who is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA. St. Louis though is already 10-5 in day games this year and 17-9 vs. right-handed starters, while the Cubs are a poor 3-7 in their last ten home games after shutting out their opponent. I like Wacha to take a step forward and I look for Darvish to take a step back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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05-04-19 | Twins +120 v. Yankees | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) After being held to four hits in last night’s series opening loss, I look for the Twins to bounce back here in what I believe to be a favorable pitching matchup. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Happ comes in off his best outing of the year vs. the Giants, but note that he’s a poor 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings vs. Minnesota. The visitors counter with Jake Odorizzi, who is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and who also comes off a gem of an outing, giving up four hits over seven scoreless vs. the Astros on Monday. Odorizzi is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 appearances vs. the Yanks. Additionally note that Minnesota is still 8-5 on the road this year, while New York is only 7-7 (-9.4 units) this season as a home favorite. New York continues to play with a number of key injuries and I look for it to take a step back here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Twins. |
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05-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Rockies under (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Totals are always high at Coors Field, but this one is is out of whack. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray who is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA thus far, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 0-2 with an 11.34 ERA. Arizona comes in having won seven of its last ten. Colorado opened the season 3-12, but it returns home off a 4-3 road trip. Anderson looks to return to form for the home side and he’s had decent success vs. the D-backs, going 2-0 with a 5.77 ERA. Ray’s had success in Denver as well, going 1-1 with a respectable 4.15 ERA in five career starts at Coors. Note that Arizona has seen the total go under in seven of nine already this year following two straight victories, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in eight of 13 as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-03-19 | Nationals +153 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* ULTIMATE OF ULTIMATE) The Nationals face Bryce Harper for the first time since he left and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who is 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Note though that Harper is 5 for 20 in his career vs. Hellickson. Also note that Hellickson is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in four career games vs. Washington. Eickhoff is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA four lifetime starts vs. the Nationals, but note that Philadelphia is still a poor 7-9 (-5.2 units) this year following a victory. The stage is set for the upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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05-02-19 | Astros v. Twins +103 | 2-8 | Win | 103 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) The Astros have a chance to to even up this four game series with a win today, but I think the home side will build off last night’s 6-2 win, bouncing back after Tuesday’s 11-0 loss. The home side has to be feeling pretty confident as well with ace Jose Berrios on the hill as he’s so far 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA, including 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA at home. The visitors counter with Brad Peacock, who is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA. Additionally note that Houston is already 4-7 (-8.3 units) this year after playing three or more straight road games, while Minnesota is 10-5 at home and 10-3 in day games. Great value on Berrios and the surging home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Twins. |
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05-02-19 | Rockies +103 v. Brewers | 11-6 | Win | 103 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8*) Freddy Peralta is 1-0 with a 7.13 ERA and he hasn’t thrown since April 16th. He’s 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts vs. Colorado for his career, but that was when he was on top form health wise. This is a difficult spot start for Peralta fresh off the IL. I definitely think that Jon Gray and the Rockies, who had their best offensive output of the season in yesterday’s win, offer great value to do it again here. Gray is 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA thus far. Colorado is 66-58 (+33.2 units) the L2 years as road dog, while Milwaukee is just 1-3 (-2.8 units) in its last four after allowing ten or more runs. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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05-02-19 | Reds +160 v. Mets | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Tyler Mahle has struggled for the Reds this year, going 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. But he catches a break here as his team has already taken two of three in this four game series and with a chance for a third win, I think the visitors offer great value here to pull off the upset. Mahle faces a struggling Noah Syndergaard, who is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA. Syndergaard has now conceded at least four runs in each of his last four outings an due has the highest ERA of the 97 pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify. The starters are a “wash” here in my opinion, but the home side is definitely over priced. Consider as well that the Reds are already 7-3 this year after three or more consecutive road games, while New York is a poor 1-4 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. Great value on the visitors. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Reds. |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals +153 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 153 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF MONTH) Washington ace Max Scherzer is 1-3 with a 4.12 ERA. In nine career starts vs. the Cardinals he’s 2-4 with a 2.84 ERA. His counterpart is Miles Mikolas, who has also gotten out to a slow start by going 2-2 with a 5.29 ERA. He’s just 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA in two starts vs. the Nats. St. Louis though comes in with momentum after yesterday’s 3-2 series opening victory and I think the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling. In fact the Cards have won ten of their last 12 games, while the Nationals have dropped eight of their last 11. I think Scherzer’s decline is right in front of us. Let’s take advantage. Play on the visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. |
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04-29-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think the Dodgers stumble here in the opening game of this three game set and after coming from behind to knock off the Rockies 7-6 on Sunday. The Giants on the other hand have been outscored 24-12 by then Yankees in losing three straight at home over the weekend and clearly they’ll be out to atone for that mess. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda, who is 4-3 with a 4.58 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Giants. Note though that he’s 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances in San Francisco. He’ll be opposed by the red hot Jeff Samardzija, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts. Over eight career appearances vs. the Dodgers he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA as well. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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04-28-19 | Indians +112 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Astros won 4-3 yesterday, but I like the Tribe to respond in the finale of this three game set. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Miley most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins. A date vs. the Indians is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA thus far. Carrasco left his last start after four scoreless innings vs. the Fish because of a knee issue, but he’s been given the green light to go here today. Note that Carrasco has now not given up a run in his last 11 innings of work. Also note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA with nine walks and 55 K’s in seven starts vs. Houston. Look for Carrasco to continue his dominance in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cleveland. |
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04-27-19 | Rockies +112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 112 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a career campaign, but this will be his first start of the season after starting on the IL. He faces a difficult opponent and counterpart as well in Jon Gray. Note that in eight career stars vs. the Rockies Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.100 ERA, giving up 20 runs off 34 hits over 35 frames opposed. And that’s bad news overall for a Braves team which has lost three of its last four. Gray is 2-1 this year, given yup only two runs over 19 2/3’s innings of work. Note that in five career outings vs. the Braves Gray is 3-0 with a tiny 1.64 ERA with 38 K’s over 33 innings of work. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards over (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Reds steamrolled the Cardinals 12-1 in yesterday’s series opener and while I’m expecting a more competitive affair this time around, I do think that the final combined score will be similar. The Cards hand the ball to Dakota Hudson, who is 1-1 with a 5.89 ERA and who gave up three runs off five hits with two walks. All three runs given up were solo home runs, so Hudson was clearly “lucky” to earn the victory in that one. The rookie right-hander has now allowed eight home runs over 18.1 innings. The visitors counter with Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.52) who gave up four runs off seven hits with no walks while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to the Padres on Sunday. Mahle for the most part has been solid, but note that he was just 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year. I think these starters get chased early. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Cards. |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants +104 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (10* TOP SIDE) This is a good pitching matchup, but I think the home side will find a way to deliver the goods vs. the still banged up Yankees. For arguments sakes, lets call the pitchers a “wash.” John Paxton is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA for the Yanks, while Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA for San Francisco. The late night West coast game favors the Giants at home anyways, but the National League format won’t be doing Paxton any favors tonight either. New York is just 36-46 (-11.2 units) on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while the Giants are 4-1 in their last five after two or more straight victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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04-26-19 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 103 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Dodgers over (9* TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been scuffling behind struggling offenses. I think that changes tonight. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs over 5 2/3’s innings while throwing a season-high 92 pitches vs. the Brewers on Saturday. The two runs he allowed were both solo home runs, so Ryu was likely a bit “lucky” in that one. I think the veterans early numbers are unsustainable and a correction is about to happen here. The visitors counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA and he returns from a five game suspension after throwing behind a batter. Despite their recent drop off at the plate, the Dodgers still lead the NL in runs scored with 146. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Dodgers. |
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04-25-19 | Tigers +176 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the Tigers offer great value to bounce back after yesterday’s 11-4 loss vs. what I feel to be the over-priced Red Sox. Detroit took both games in a double-header the day prior. The home side hands the ball to the volatile Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA. He’ll square off against Jordan Zimmermann, who is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA. I’m not reading too much into Boston’s offensive explosion yesterday, as this is a team which has struggled mightily with consistency at the plate all season. Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is on a ten-game hitting streak. Boston is over priced, considering the form of Porcello right now. Play on the Tigers. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Tigers. |
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04-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) After slow starts, both Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke and the Pirates’ Jameson Taillon have looked a lot better over their last few starts, but I think they’re going to get the hook early here. The Diamondbacks are looking for a sweep of the Pirates and come in off an impressive 11-4 offensive victory last night. The Pirates though enter desperate after four straight losses. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Arizona has seen the total eclipse the number in eight of 12 already this year vs. teams with winning records, while Pittsburgh has still seen the total soar over in five of its last six as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pirates have lost three straight for the first time this year. Arizona won Game 1 by a score of 12-4, before then taking Tuesday’s contest 2-1. I think we’ll see a much higher-scoring contest in the finale though. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly (1-2, 4.37 ERA) who is making his fifth major league start. He’ll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA. Kelly most recently had 109 pitches over just three innings of work vs. the Cubs last Friday, giving up three runs off six hits while walking seven. Lyles has only allowed one earned run over 17 innings of work, but I think his early unreal numbers are unsustainable. In 19 career games vs. the Diamondbacks, including nine starts, note that Lyles is a poor 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. |
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04-24-19 | Brewers +102 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (9* BLACK-LABEL) Enough is enough here. The Brewers have lost the first two games of this series, but i think the visitors will find a way to bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who is 2-2 with a 5.92 ERA. Chacin won his first two starts of the year, including the season opener vs. St. Louis, giving up three runs with seven K’s over six innings in the 5-4 win. Chacin most recently comes in off a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings. The home side counters with Adam Wainwright, who is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and who has had plenty of success throughout his career against Milwaukee, but who I believe will come up short this afternoon. Wainwright looked very unspectacular in his latest outing against the Mets on Friday, allowing four runs off eight hits with three walks over three innings in the loss. I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 0-9 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Mets under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Mets took Game 1 by a score of 5-1 on Monday and I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Zack Wheeler is only 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA for the Mets so far this year, but after starting slowly he’s looked much better of late, most recently giving up three runs over seven frames in a 3-2 loss to these very Phillies last Wednesday. Wheeler has to be feeling confident here as he’s 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts vs. Philadelphia. The visitors go with Zach Eflin, who is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and who most recently gave up three runs over six innings vs. the Rockies on Thursday. Note though that Eflin is just 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. Note that the Phillies are just 7 of 39 with runners in scoring position over the last five games, which doesn’t bode well facing the ever improving Wheeler. This one has “duel” written all over it. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. |
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04-22-19 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Angels under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). Two starters which have seen better days collide in the opener of this one and while each has struggled mightily to start the season, I think the worm starts to turn today. jA Happ is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA for the Yanks. Happ comes in off his best effort of the year though, allowing three runs while striking out four over seven innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Despite his poor ERA and WHIP, note that Happ still owns a respectable 17:6 K:BB over 18.2 innings of work. His counterpart Matt Harvey is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. Harvey most recently allowed four runs while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. Harvey was decent for the Reds last year and the veteran will benefit from facing an injured Yanks team, which also just had to put slugger Aaron Judge on the 10 day DL to add to their list of “walking wounded.” Note that New York has seen the total go under in seven of nine vs. teams with losing records, while LA has seen the total go under in six of seven vs. southpaws. I expect these hungry starters to battle deep. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 A’s. |
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04-21-19 | Braves +110 v. Indians | Top | 11-5 | Win | 110 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians won Game 1 of yesterday’s double header 8-4 and the Braves then rallied for an 8-7 win in the second. Both of these starters have been great so far and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either Max Fried (2-0, 0.92 ERA) or Shane Bieber (2-0, 1.71) to come out on top tonight. I think the difference are in the numbers today though, as note that ATL is a perfect 4-0 (+4.4 units) already this year after scoring eight or more runs, while Cleveland is still only 19-23 (-19.5 units) the last two season in inter-league contests. Good value on the Braves and Fried here. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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04-20-19 | Red Sox +136 v. Rays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 136 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* BLACK-LABEL) Boston took the opener of this three game set last night and I think the hungry visiting side offers great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12 ERA) who fortunately can only go one way his performance. Boston has yet to even win a series this year though, so with a victory tonight it’ll accomplish that feat finally. Porcello has struggled, but the veteran is still 14-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts vs. the Rays. Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18) has been exception so far for the Rays and it’s difficult to point out to many negative things about the veteran, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Note as well that Boston is 34-29 (+16.3 units) in its last 63 as a road underdog, while TB is just 34-35 (-10.3 units) in its last 69 as a home favorite in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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04-19-19 | Reds +142 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the Reds in their upset win over the Padres last night and I think they offer great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA so far. DeSclafani most recently gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cards. Last year he had a respectable 4.18 ERA on the road. Fortunately for DeSclafani, he won’t have to pitch very well to produce his best effort of the season. He also benefits facing the Friars’ Matt Strahm (0-2, 4.26) who comes in off a decent effort vs. the D-Backs, allowing no runs over five innings of work. Strahm lost his first two starts and the book is still out at this point as far as I’m concerned. I give the small nod to DeSclafani here and I like the Reds to build off their win from last night. Overall great value vs. a Padres team which has likely been performing over its head to open the season. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-18-19 | Reds +127 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 127 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) Reds’ veteran and new-comer Tanner Roark (0-0, 4.30 ERA) comes in off his best outing so far for the Reds, holding the Cards to one run off six hits with a walk and five K’s over 5 1/3’s innings of work. The home side counters with rookie Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.29) who so far has looked exemplary, but whose sample size is clearly too small to make any definite conclusions. I will point out though that Roark has a long history of success vs. the Friars, going 3-1 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA and 0.742 WHIP and .162 opponents’ batting average. Cincinnati has lost five straight, but I think it punches one into the win column here in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Tigers over (8* TOTAL SLUG-FEST) The White Sox come to town off a 4-3, ten-inning loss to KC last night, one which featured a benches-clearing brawl. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Chicago. Keep your eyes on White Sox short-stop Tim Anderson, who has a .424 average with four home runs and 12 RBIs. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Nova has struggled against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career match ups. The Tigers enter desperate to break a five-game losing streak, losing to Pittsburgh in extra innings for a second consecutive night. The home side counters with Tyson Ross (1-2, 3.50) who gave up four runs off five hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday (was the second time in three starts that Ross has walked at least four batters.) This one screams “slugfest” in my opinion as I expect each of these “on again, off again” starters to get chased early by these two hungry clubs. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Tigers. |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox +106 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks scored the 8-0 win in the first game of this mini two-game series between these AL East foes, but I think the scuffling Red Sox will bounce back here and find a way to deliver the goods tonight. Boston’s 6-12 start is its worst since 1996. But I think this is a great spot to bounce back in. The Yankees are still majority banged up and I think that’s a factor here. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 0-2 with an 8.76 ERA, most recently allowing six runs off nine hits over four innings to the light-hitting White Sox on Friday. Boston turns to Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40), who also comes in struggling, most recently giving up five runs to the Jays on Thursday. Both pitchers have had success vs. their respective opponent today, so that area is a “wash.” Note though that Boston is 34-28 (+17.3 units) the last two seasons as a road dog of +100 or higher. Additionally note that New York is a poor 1-3 (-5.7 units) already this year after a win by four runs of more. I’m banking on Boston bouncing back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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04-16-19 | Indians -101 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Tribe welcomed back Jason Kipnis and he made a big impact in last night’s 6-4 win. Cleveland won’t be lacking for motivation here after its poor start. The Mariners though look poised to go on a run of mediocrity after their hot start. The home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Bieber is now 8-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his entire career on the road after a 4-0 win over the Tigers on Thursday. The home side goes with Mike Leake, who is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Leake gave up three home runs in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Thursday. I like the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tribe. |
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04-15-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Phillies over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Two of the best in the league go head-to-head on the hill tonight, but I still think this total will sneak over this tiny number. The Phillies Aaron Nola is 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA, while the Mets’ Noah Syndergaar is 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA. The Phillies come in off a 3-1 win in Miami, but they’ll be eager to get their bats going after a lacklustre showing in their last series: "I think hitting is one of those things that can be a little bit hit and miss," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told reporters in Miami. "Sometimes, you have to give credit to the opposition for pitching well. I think that we have the ability to score lots of runs in consecutive games. And I think that's going to happen for us." The Mets come in off consecutive losses in Atlanta and they’ll also be out to get back into the winners circle. With both of these studs not at their “elite best” to open the season, everything points to this total soaring over the number sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Phillies. |
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04-14-19 | Mets v. Braves +140 | 3-7 | Win | 140 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Braves won 11-7 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets go with ace Jacob DeGrom, who enters off a terrible outing vs. the Twins at home, allowing six runs over four innings in a 14-8 loss. Julio Teheran is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but he enters off a hard-fought victory over Colorado. DeGrom is 6-5 with a 1.70 ERA in 17 starts vs. the Braves, while Teheran is 9-7 with a 2.39 ERA in 25 games vs. the Mets. This is great value on the hot hitting home side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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