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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-20-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: RedSox/Orioles OVER (10*). I had a play on the Red Sox last night as they finally broke out of their losing slide with a 6-3 upset home win over the Phillies. Now the Red Sox look to make it two in a row vs the lowly Orioles, who will be eager to atone for a 5-2 home loss to the Jays yesterday afternoon. I'll point out that the Orioles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine after scoring two runs or less in a home loss in their previous outing. This number is low, hammer the over! T.M. Prediction: 8-4 Red Sox. |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -103 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10*). After losing three straight to the Astros, I think the Rockies find a way to deliver the goods in the finale. Cristian Javier is 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA for the Astros and so far he's made the most of his time in the rotation, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Mariners. Facing the Mariners is one thing, but facing this hungry Rockies team at Coors is quite another obviously. German Marquez is only 2-3 this year, but he sports a sharp 2.25 ERA. Marquez has 30 K's over 32 innings so far and he was 9-5 at home last year. Great value on the hard-hitting home side! T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rockies. |
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08-20-20 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 0-9 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tigers Run Line (8*). Detroit lost 5-3 yesterday, but I like it to respond on Thursday. The Tigers go with Spencer Turnbull, who is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA and who comes in off his first loss of the year, allowing three runs over five innings to the hard-hitting Indians on Saturday. So far he has a 21:11 K:BB and his team will be leaning on him today to get deep into this one. Lucas Giolito is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA for the ChiSox and he most recently was shelled for five runs over five innings in a loss to the Cardinals. Recent form has me all over Turnbull and the hungry Tigers on Thursday! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Tigers. |
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08-19-20 | Phillies v. Red Sox +130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox (10* TRADE-MARK). I love the home side to pull off the slight upset here. Boston lost 13-6 last night and it's on the verge of its longest losing streak in club history. Suffice it to say, I believe the BoSox will collectively "dig deep" here and find a way to deliver. Kyle Hart is 0-1 with a 22.50 ERA for Boston, while Jake Arrieta is 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA for Phillies. The Phillies have won four straight and are back at .500, but note that they're just 1-5 in their last six after three games or longer unbeaten streak. I'm banking on Hart matching Arrieta and for the desperate Red Sox to come through here finally. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Red Sox. |
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08-18-20 | Blue Jays -135 v. Orioles | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* MONEY-MAKER). The Jays won 7-2 yesterday without Bo Bichette in the line-up, as Randal Grichuk drove in four runs, while Cavan Biggio knocked in the other three. Nate Pearson is 0-0 with a 5.11 ERA for the Jays, while Wade LeBlanc is 1-0 with a 7.13 ERA for the Orioles. Pearson is a 6 foot 6, 250 pound rookie that throws the ball hard and I believe he's a "wash" here with LeBlanc (note though that LeBlanc is a devastatingly poor 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA in four games vs. the Jays lifetime.) Toronto is 8-4 in its last 12 after a four-run or higher victory and I look for that trend to extend here; lay the short price! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Jays. |
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08-18-20 | Indians v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tribe/Pirates UNDER (10* PITCHERS DUEL OF DOOM). I believe this one is going to sneak below the number. The Indians come off an 8-5 win Sunday at Detroit in which they blasted out five home runs. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this interleague park and facing the lowly Pirates. Pittsburgh has only played twice in the last eight days, so its bullpen is very healthy at the moment. Carlos Carrasco is 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA for the Indians, while JT Brubaker is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA for the Pirates. Look for these two stud pitchers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall under once it's all said and done! T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Indians. |
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08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks +101 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs (10* MONEY-MAKER). Both teams come in red hot, but I think that Arizona will take the first of this four game interleague series. The A's go with Chris Bassitt, who is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA. He'll be opposed by Zac Gallen who is 0-0 with a 2.72 ERA. Gallen comes in off a gem at Coors Field of all places, giving up just two runs over seven innings and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. Furthermore note that the A's are just 2-5 in their last seven interleague road games as the favorite. Round 1 of this four round fight goes to Arizona! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 D-Backs. |
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08-16-20 | Padres -114 v. Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Padres (9* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION.) These two teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions. The Padres once rosy start is in the rear view mirror now, as the team enters at 11-11 and on a four-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are still under the .500 mark after their terrible start, but after four-straight wins, this one definitely has "letdown" written all over it in my opinion. Garrett Richards is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA this year for San Diego and he's 2-0 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA in five starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Robbie Ray of Arizona is only 1-2 with a 10.59 ERA this year and he's a pedestrian 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA in 17 starts vs. the Padres. As stated off the top, this one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Padres. |
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08-16-20 | Rays v. Blue Jays +126 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* U OF THE U). Yonny Chirinos is 0-0 with a 1.04 ERA, but he comes in off a ten-day stint in the injured list. Chirinos looked great before his minor injury, but I'm still skeptical here, as I believe he'll be on a "short leash" from the Rays. The Jays go with Matt Shoemaker, who is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA. Shoemaker enters off a good start vs. the Red Sox, allowing three runs (only two earned) off three hits while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision on Sunday. The rain delayed game works in favor of Toronto in this one as well in my opinion. All things considered, I absolutely love this play! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Jays. |
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08-15-20 | Dodgers v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Angels RUN LINE (8*). The Dodgers won 7-4 last night, but I like the Angels to bounce back here. Walker Buehler is 0-0 with a 4.40 ERA this year for the Dodgers and he most recently allowed two runs and four walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Giants on Sunday. Andrew Heaney is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA for the Angels and while he gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday, note that he posted a sharp 3.49 ERA in all "night" games a year ago. I'm going to lay this very reasonable price and grab the extra runs just in case! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Angels. |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10*). Kyle Gibson is 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA. He looked decent in his team debut, but then took a step back last time out vs. the Mariners on Monday, allowing four runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. In my opinion, a date at Coors Field is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked. The home side counters with German Marquez, who is 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA and who will be eager to return to form after allowing five runs to the Mariners over seven innings in his last outing. Note though that only two were earned. Marquez had a winning home record last year and he sports a great 27/6 K/BB already this year, along with the miniscule 2.08 ERA. Expect Marquez to get the better of Gibson and lay this price! T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rockies. |
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08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: OVER Mets/Phils (10*). Aaron Nola has been spectacular for the Phillies in the early going. The Phillies held on for a 6-5 win yesterday and I expect a similar final combined score here as well though, as note that this pick is primarily based upon the shoddy play of Mets' starter Steven Matz, who is 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA. Most recently he allowed three home runs and eight runs overall in a 16-4 loss to the Nationals on Monday. Look for these two talented offenses to push this total over as the game comes down the stretch! T.M. Prediction: 8-5 Phililes. |
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08-14-20 | Dodgers v. Angels +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Angels RUN LINE (8* MONEY-MAKER). The DOdgers enter off a satisfying 11-2 thrashing of the Padres last night and I believe they'll suffer a bit of a hang over here. If you look at these teams OBPS, they are very similar. The Angels won't be lacking for motivation here either. Clayton Kershaw looked great in his debut vs. the toothless D-Backs, but he took a step back in his last start by allowing four runs over four innings (and note that three of the runs were of the solo home run variety, so clearly he's a bit "lucky" to have the numbers he currently does.) Patrick Sandoval was unfortunate to earn a loss in his last start, despite allowing only two runs over five frames. I think the home side on the run line is the savvy call here! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Angels. |
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08-13-20 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 2-11 | Loss | -156 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Padres (RUN LINE). The Padres took the first two games of this series before falling 6-0 last night. I think San Diego has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, but in a game which could be decided late or even in extra innings, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs! Chris Paddack is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA so far for the Padres and he's 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA vs. the Dodgers over four starts. Julio Urias is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA for LA, but note that the Dodgers are a poor 2-7 in their last nine NL home games after posting a shutout and a victory of five or more runs. Outright victory?! Obviously very possible, but grab the 1.5! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Padres. |
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08-12-20 | Twins v. Brewers +131 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK). The Brewers came out on top with a 6-4 win last night and I believe they'll find a way to deliver on Wednesday as well. The Twins just got swept by Kansas City as this is a team which is now clearly trending in the wrong direction. Kenta Maeda is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA for Minnesota and while he's had success vs. the Brewers in the past, I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Eric Lauer is 0-1 with a 9.53 ERA, allowing six runs in his only start this year vs. the Reds. That's not indicative of Lauer's over form in these spots though, as he posted a 3.08 ERA in all "home" situations. Look for the Brewers to build off yesterday's four home run performance and for Maeda to finally regress! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Brewers. |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians -135 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indians (10* TRADE-MARK). Jon Lester has been brilliant so far for Chicago, going 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA thus far. Everything has gone right so far for the veteran, but I think that he'll have a "hiccup" here sooner than later (also note, Lester was a far from spectacular 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA on the road, while also posting a 5.99 ERA after the All Star Break.) Mike Clevinger has been sidelined with covid protocol here, so Adam Plutko gets the nod and he's 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA, most recently allowing two runs over six innings in a victory over the White Sox (note that Plutko was a sharp 4-2 with a 3.85 ERA at home last year as well). I think the tough road venue finally gets to Lester and I look for Plutko to edge his counterpart; lay the price! T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians. |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Indians OVER (10* TOTAL U OF THE U). Jon Lester has been brilliant so far for Chicago, going 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA thus far. Everything has gone right so far for the veteran, but I think that he'll have a "hiccup" here sooner than later (also note, Lester was a far from spectacular 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA on the road, while also posting a 5.99 ERA after the All Star Break.) Mike Clevinger has been sidelined with covid protocol here, so Adam Plutko gets the nod and he's 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA, most recently allowing two runs over six innings in a victory over the White Sox. Plutko though is being forced into this spot, so he could be seeing only limited time on the hill this evening. I think these two talented offensive clubs eclipse this total in the early innings; play the over! T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians. |
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08-10-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -128 | 12-8 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8* MONEY-MAKER). The Rockies return home off a 5-3 loss at Seattle, but the Rockies are 11-4 overall and I think they'll lay the hammer down here vs. this inconsistent D-Backs side. Jon Gray is 0-1 with a 3.31 ERA for the home side, while Robbie Ray is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA for the visitors. Both veterans have had success against their respective opponents today, but clearly each enters on the other end of the spectrum as far as their current overall form is concerned. Combine that with the sluggish start that the D-Back are having at the plate (especially on the road!), and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying on this red hot home side! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rockies. |
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08-10-20 | Twins v. Brewers +102 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* BEST OF BEST). I like the home side to prevail in this Monday night interleague matchup. Minnesota goes with Randy Dobnak, who is 2-1 with a 0.60 ERA, while the Brewers counter with Adrian Houser, who is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Dobnak comes off a 5-2 win over th ePirates on Wednesday, going six innings. But after starting the season 10-2, the Twins have dropped four in a row. In fact note that the Twins' pitchers have a 6.12 ERA during the slide and now they face a Brewers side which just exploded for a 9-3 home win on Sunday. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Brewers. |
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08-09-20 | Yankees +106 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* U OF THE U). Tampa won 2-0 on Friday and the then New York won 8-4 yesterday. I think the Evil Empire will build off yesterday's performance and find a way to get the job done here as well. Morton and Paxton are a "wash" here in my opinion, but note that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine AL road games after scoring eight or more runs ina victory in their previous outing. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Yanks. |
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08-08-20 | Rockies v. Mariners -110 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* BANKROLL BUILDER). The Rockies won last night, but I think the home side will dig deep and find a way to get the job done on Saturday. Ryan Castellani is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA has been called up to replace Chi Chi Gonzalez for the Rockies, who tore his biceps. This is Catellani's MLB debut after posting an 8.31 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over 10 starts at the Triple-A level last season. Nick Margevicius is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and while he's struggled with consistency early, I still give him a big nod in this particular matchup. Additionally note that the Rockies are just 2-7 in their last nine interleague games after a three runs or higher margin of victory in their previous outing. Great value on the home side! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Mariners. |
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08-07-20 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -117 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (10* U OF THE U). San Diego starter Zach Davies is 1-1 after two starts, allowing five earned runs with seven K's spanning ten innings. For his career he's 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA vs. the D-Backs. Davies hasn't been fantastic, but he's been grinding. Luke Weaver on the other hand has been an absolute "gas can" for Arizona, going 0-2 with a ballooned 14.73 ERA so far, allowing 12 runs off 14 hits over just 7 1/3's frames of work. I'm banking on Davies easily going longer than his struggling counterpart and that definitely swings the favor in the under-valued home side; lay it! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Padres. |
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08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians -112 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER). Cleveland won 2-0 last night and I think it'll find a way to get the job done here as well and win this four game series 3-1. Luis Castillo gets the nod for the Reds and he enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers, allowing five runs off eight hits. Carlos Carrasco heads to the hill for the home side and he has so far allowed five runs over 12 innings of work this season. Carrasco has two quality outings under his belt and I think he continues his progression here. Note as well that the Reds are 0-4 in their last four as an underdog, while Cleveland is interestingly 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts vs. the NL Central division. Overall, great value on the home side! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Tribe. |
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08-05-20 | Dodgers -135 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Dodgers The Padres early big start to the season is starting to dwindle away. The Dodgers won 5-2 last night and I think the offer great value here to win again. Ross Stripling is so far 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA for LA, most recently allowing three runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in a victory over the D-Backs on Thursday. Previous to that he struck out seven in a win over the Giants. Garrett Richards is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA and he most recently was rocked for four runs off eight hits with one walk over 5.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Rockies on Friday. Richards was dealing with injuries last year and he's yet to "get up to speed" in 2020 either. Expect LA to step up and take advantage tonight and lay this reasonable price! T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Dodgers |
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08-04-20 | White Sox v. Brewers -120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brewers (10* U OF THE U). One of these starting pitchers has struggled to open the year, while the other has done well. I'm expecting these trends to continue on Tuesday night. Lucas Giolito is 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA, putting together one lousy start and one great so far. Giolito was sharp in all day games last year with a 2.18 ERA, but it raised to 5.01 in all "night" contests. Brandon Woodruff is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA and he comes off a gem in which he struck out ten opponents over 6.1 scoreless frames of work vs. the Pirates on Wednesday. Other than a two run home run in his first outing, Woodruff has been perfect and note that he was particularly tough at home last year by going 11-3 with a 2.93 ERA. Look for Woodruff to outlast his counterpart and lay this reasonable price! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Brewers. |
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08-03-20 | Dodgers -133 v. Padres | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). I like Walker Buehler and the Dodgers to get the job done on Monday night. Buehler is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA, who gave up two runs over 3.2 innings while striking out three in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Buehler is now cleared to work a full game, which I believe will pay dividends for the Dodgers this evening. Chris Paddack is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA after allowing twor runs over five innings in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. The Padres come in having lost two in a row at Coors Field and I believe they'll struggle again here vs. the league's best. Lay the short price! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Dodgers. |
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08-02-20 | Astros v. Angels +127 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Angels (10* BANKROLL BUILDER). The Angels won 5-4 last night and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas in the closer of this three-game set as well. Josh James is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA for the Astros after allowing three runs off three hits over three innings while also walking five in a no-decision vs. the Mariners on Sunday. Shoehei Ohtani is 0-1 with a 0.00 ERA and he also struggled in his first start of the year. Ohtani showed electric stuff in camp though and I expect him to settle down in this second start at home. Also note that LA is 7-2 in is last nine home games following a home victory by a single run. Good value on the hungry Angels! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Angels. |
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08-01-20 | A's -142 v. Mariners | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A's Oakland fell 5-3 in the opener of this series yesterday, but with what I believe to be the superior starting pitcher on the mound today, I look for it to bounce back large on Saturday night. The A's are now 3-4 and the Mariners are 4-4. Mike Fiers (0-0, 9.00 ERA) allowed four runs over four innings vs. the Angels in his debut last week, but thanks to a five run lead in the first, Fiers avoided a loss. Fiers though was 15-4 with a 3.90 ERA last season and 11-2 with a 3.67 ERA in all "night" games. The M's go with the volatile Yusei Kikuchi, who was 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA last year and who was shelled for five runs and four walks over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Astros on Sunday. Note that he was just 2-9 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA in all "night" games last year as well. After falling last night, look for the A's to respond on Saturday night! T.M. Prediction: 6-1 A's |
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08-01-20 | Dodgers -143 v. Diamondbacks | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Dodgers (8* MONEY-MAKER). LA lost 5-3 yesterday, but I look for it to get back on track here. The visitors go with Julio Urias, who is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA after allowing one run while striking out three over five in a 3-1 loss to the Giants on Sunday. It was a mediocre start, however note that he did have ten swinging strikes on 78 pitches. Luke Weaver (0-1, 16.20) was horrible in his season debut though and I believe he'll struggle again here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. Weaver was rocked for six earned runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings in loss to the Friars on Monday. Finally note that the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine NL road games following a road loss of two runs or more. I'm laying the price! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Dodgers. |
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07-30-20 | Padres v. Giants +165 | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
MICHAEL'S 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE! I've located an underdog which is going to EASILY win outright at the ballpark on Thursday night! Hop on board to get the winning side RIGHT NOW! T.M. Selection: Giants (UNDERDOG U OF THE U). The Giants held on for a 7-6 victory last night and I look for them to get the job done at the end of the night here too. Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80 ERA) gets the call for the Padres and he allowed one run off five hits while striking out eight over five innings in a win over the toothless D-Backs on Saturday. Lamet was limited to 80 pitches and he'll be under a count tonight as well. Kevin Gausman (0-0, 4.50) came on in relief in a loss to the Dodgers last week, allowing three runs (just two earned) over four frames of work. I think Lamet struggles in this difficult road venue and I expect this hungry home dog to step into the batters box and deliver a grand slam! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Giants. |
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07-30-20 | Rays v. Braves -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* U OF THE U). The Braves and Rays continue their intense interleague series and after coming out on top at home last night, I believe the Braves are going to find a way to get the job done again here as well. Ryan Yarbough (0-0, 0.00 ERA) goes for the Rays opposite the Braves Max Fried (0-0, 3.60). Yarbough went five scoreless vs. the Jays in his opener, while Fried allowed two runs off two hits while striking out five over six innings in a 5-3 win over the Mets. Yarbough though is just 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA in eight career interleague appearances. He's also 0-3 in his last nine appearances since August 2019. Conversely, Fried is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three interleague starts. When you add it all up, I do definitely think we're getting great value on the home side! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Braves. |
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07-29-20 | Cardinals v. Twins -147 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins (10* TRADE-MARK). Minnesota appears to be on a mission to open the new season as it continues to pound the ball, last night winning the opener of this series 6-3. I believe tonight's game will be an even bigger blowout. Daniel Ponce de Leon (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is filling in for the injured Miles Mikolas for the Cards today. Sure Ponce de Leon has shown plenty of promise, but he's being thrust into a difficult spot on short notice here and I believe he'll predictably struggle. Rich Hill (0-0, 0.00) was 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA last year. Hill was scratched from Saturday's start for no particular reason, so the veteran will clearly be extra rested and focussed here, benefiting from the home field advantage, despite no fans in attendance. This is a price in which I have no qualms whatsoever in laying! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Twins. |
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07-29-20 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Mets | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox RUN LINE (8* MONEY-MAKER). I can't say anything negative about Jacob deGrom, so I won't even bother. The veteran looked dominant in his first start of the year, going six scoreless opposite Mike Soroka of the Braves. deGrom has a history of success at home as well. The one knock against deGrom isn't actually his fault, as he's famously been one of the biggest victims of poor run support throughout his career. Nathan Eovaldi is 2-4 with a 4.40 ERA in ten starts vs. the Mets. Eovaldi has been a bright spot early on for Boston's rotation though, as he comes in sporting a 1-0, 1.50 ERA thus far. I like the big bats of Boston to do some damage in the Big Apple tonight! T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Sox. |
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07-29-20 | Rays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rays/Braves UNDER (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). At the best of times these two teams have issues plating runs, but with these two very competent starting hurlers squaring off to open, I do indeed expect this strong trend of offensive futility to continue. The Rays go with Charlie Morton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits over four innings in a horrible start to the year vs. the Blue Jays on Friday. Morton had a mediocre camp, but after getting that first awkward game out of the way, I believe the veteran will settle down nicely here (owned a 3.11 ERA on the road last year.) Mike Soroka (0-0, 0.00) was brilliant in his first start though for the Braves, going head to head with Jacob deGrom, allowing no runs off four hits while striking out three over six innings. As stated off the top, these starters look poised for a classic battle here and I believe that will help in driving this total well under the posted number! T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Rays. |
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07-28-20 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | 2-10 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Mariners RUN LINE (8* BEST OF BEST). Seattle won't be lacking for motivation here after coming up empty in Houston to open the season. The Angels also struggled in their opening series in Oakland, falling 3-0 last night. But in a contest which I ensvision being decided late or even in extras, I'll gladly lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Angels have been forced to go with Patrick Sandoval here, as Matt Andriese was used in relief on Sunday. Sandoval was 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA in ten appearances (nine starts) as a rookie last year. The M's go with Justus Sheffield, who was 0-1 with a 5.50 ERA for the Mariners last year. These teams are evenly matched here. I wouldn't be shocked by the outright victory, but in the end I believe the value is the visitors on the RUN LINE here! T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners. |
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07-28-20 | Brewers -143 v. Pirates | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -143 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* GAME OF WEEK). Milwaukee held on for a 6-5 victory last night and I think it'll deliver here as well. Josh Lindblom (0-0, 0.00 ERA last year) completed a full spring tune-up and he won't have any limitations put on him to open the campaign. Lindblom has spent four of the last five years pitching in Korea. In fact over the past two seasons he's gone 35-7 with a 2.68 ERA in 56 starts and he won the KBO's equivalent of the Cy Young Award. Derek Holland posted a deplorable 8.10 ERA between the Giants and Cubs as a starter last year and a slightly better 4.83 ERA in 43 relief outings. This is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line is suggesting. I'm laying the price with confidence! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Rays OVER (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER). These teams combined for 19 runs yesterday and I expect a similar final combined slug-fest as well here. Kyle Wright (0-3, 8.69 ERA last year) who has shown promise, but who unfortunately arrived to camp late because of travel issues caused by the pandemic. Wright was terrible in the second half last year as well, going 0-1 with a 13.85 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Rays' Yonny Chirinos (9-5, 3.85 ERA last year), who didn't report to camp until last Sunday due to a positive coronavirus test. Chirinos has been cleared to play and while he's also looked decent in his practice sessions, the book is still clearly out on his form/health. Look for both Wright and Chirinos to only survive a few innings, before making way for the bullpens and expect this total to fly OVER the number! T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Rays. |
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07-27-20 | Braves +138 v. Rays | Top | 5-14 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* U OF THE U). Both Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves and Tyler Glasnow of the Rays have "something to prove" this season. The Braves come in off a big win ove the Mets and the Rays come in off a big win over the Jays. Atlanta's hitting line-up has looked better over the first three games though and I think that'll play a factor. Foltynewicz (8-6 with a 4.54 ERA last year), taking a step back from a tremendous 2018 showing. Note though that he was his best on the road last season, going 5-3 with a 4.10 ERA. Also note that he was 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA after the All Star break. Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA last year) gave up two hits and four walks over three innings in his final tune-up last week. Glasnow revealed recently that he had tested positive for Covid a few months ago, so it'll be curious to see if that effects him or not. Either way, I look for the hard-hitting Braves to get the job done in this one. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Braves. |
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07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets +100 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
NOTE: WRONG SIDE SELECTED. Please make note that the actual play on this game is on the BRAVES...the wrong side was unfortunately chosen during the pick creation stage. T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves The Braves broke out with a win last night and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. Rick Porcello (14-12, 5.52 ERA in 2019) gets the call for the home side. The Braves counter with left Sean Newcomb (6-3, 3.16 ERA in 2019). Edwin Diaz gave up a late home run to the Braves' Marcell Ozuna and then Atlanta would go on to score three more times in the top of the tenth. It's the same old story for the Mets though, who continue to get confounded at the plate. Porcello has had success against the Braves in the past (3-1, 3.00 ERA in four career starts). Newcomb though is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 13 games vs. the Mets. Ultimately I think the Braves' line-up has severely underperformed to this point and I like it to finally break out in this favorable matchup. Look for Newcomb to get the better of his veteran counterpart. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Braves |
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07-26-20 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -109 | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres San Diego has easily taken the first two games of this series and I look for it to keep the pedal to the metal on Sunday afternoon as well. Zac Gallen (3-6, 2.81 ERA last year) was not good in his final spring tune-up, giving up five runs off four hits over 52 pitches. Garrett Richards is on the tail end of his career, but I think the wily veteran has more than enough in the tank to help his team move to a perfect 3-0 to open the campaign (note that he's 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona as well!) This line could/should easily be much larger, great value on San Diego today! T.M. Prediction: 8-1 Padres |
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07-26-20 | Twins -122 v. White Sox | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins Minnesota destroyed the White Sox 10-5 in the opener, before then falling 10-3 yestreday. While I expect a much closer affair overall after those b2b blowouts, I do expect Minnesota to answer here in the finale. Kenta Maeda went 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA last season and he was sharp in his final spring training session, allowing three runs over six innnings, including seven K's off 85 pitches. Maeda's aggressiveness gives him the advantage here over his counterpart Reynaldo Lopez in my opinion, who was an unspectacular 10-15 with a 5.38 ERA last year. Lopez throws hard, but his command issues are going to be a major issue vs. this talented Twins line-up this afternoon. Lay the short price! T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Twins |
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07-25-20 | Brewers v. Cubs -135 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* STRIKEOUT). Yu Darvish left Texas to come to the Cubs and then injured himself and struggled. Many in Chicago wondered if he was going to be a complete bust, but all of a sudden at the all star break last year, Darvish finally found his groove, posting a 3.58 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 192:29 K:BB over his final 24 starts. He's looked pretty good in Spring training too. Corbin Burnes on the other hand was 1-5 with an uninspiring 8.82 ERA in 2019 for Milwaukee. Burnes is being pressed into the starting rotation out of necessity, with Brett Anderson starting the season on the IL. I'm not going to over think this one. Lay it! T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Cubs. |
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07-24-20 | Angels +1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels +1.5 The A's dominated this series last year, but I think that trend ends tonight. Andrew Heaney gets the nod for the visitors and he was 4-6 with a 4.91 ERA last year. Frankie Montas was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA over six starts last season. Montas though seems doomed for regression in my opinion, and he draws a tough opponent out of the gate in facing Mike Trout and company. I believe the Angels got better in the offseason and I expect that to pay dividends for them in the early going. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Angels |
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10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros Off B2B losses at home in the World Series, most people probably think that their hopes are done. The Astros will now turn to the future hall of famer in Zach Greinke. In one start against the Nationals this year, Greinke went 7 1/3 innings, while giving up only 2 hits. I expect him to dominate in this must-win Game 3. Take the Astros and expect them to not go home without a fight. T.M. Prediction: 4-1 Astros |
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10-22-19 | Nationals +196 v. Astros | 5-4 | Win | 196 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals Two of the best pitchers in the entire league will take the mound in Game 1 of the World Series. Gerrit Cole has been nasty as of late. For his career, he has a 2.26 ERA in eight playoff starts. On the other hand, the Nationals will turn to their ace, in Max Schrezer, who comes in with a 1.80 ERA in the playoffs. I expect Max to get it done and shock the world in this one. Take the Nationals and expect an upset. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Nats |
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10-18-19 | Astros -140 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston (GOTW) T.M. Analysis: You know I'm not one to play favorites. This matchup is too juicy to pass up though. The Astros have the Yankees right where they want them. They're firing on all cylinders and have got a major edge on the mound with Verlander ready to go. Houston punches its ticket to the World Series. Tonight! T.M. Prediction: Astros 6-2 |
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10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees -125 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees Off a rough loss on Tuesday Night, both of these teams return to their Game 1 starter. Zack Greinke, who has been awful, will get the nod for the Astros. In the postseason so far, he has a terrible 8.38 ERA with no wins. On the other hand, Masahiro Tanaka has been absolutely dominant, in each of his playoff appearances this year. Tanaka is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA. Expect Tanaka to dominate once again in this one. Take the Yanks T.M. Prediction: 7-3 Yankees |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
TM selection: Yankees +1.5 (run-line) TM analysis: Cole is awesome. No doubt about it. However, Severino can also absolutely get it done. He's got a 0.00 ERA in these playoffs, courtesy of blanking the Twins. This Yankee lineup is deadly dangerous. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect a close tight game. TM prediction: 4-3 Yankees. |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals -125 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals Many may think that with the Nationals taking both the games in St Louis, the Cards would throw everything at Washington in Game 3. Well, it's true. It's a do or die situation for them. If they lose, it would take a miracle for them to come back from down 0-3. But, there is only one man in the way. Stephen Strasburg. That mean man right there, who has never lost in the postseason. Expect a destruction in this one. Take Washington with ease. T.M. Prediction: 6-1 Nationals |
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10-13-19 | Yankees +150 v. Astros | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees Game 1 saw a dominating performance from the New York Yankees. The final score ended up being 7-0 with Gleyber Torres leading the way. Houston's SP Justin Verlander got rocked last time out as he was trying to close out the ALDS. He only went 3 and 2/3 innings and allowed 4 ER's (7 hits.) Expect the Yankees to rock him again on Sunday Night. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves +105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves Mike Foltynewicz is off a brilliant performance on Friday, where he threw 7 innings of dominance with only 3 hits given up. Now he'll face Jack Flaherty, who he beat on Oct. 4th. Atlanta is 51-32 with their home fans behind them on the year, and now they'll look to close out the 5-game series against a ST. Louis team who is 8-14 when playing with a day off. Expect home field advantage to come into play here. Play the Braves. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves |
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10-07-19 | Yankees -140 v. Twins | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees With the Yankees up 2-0 in the best of five series, it shifts to Minnesota. The Yanks will hand the ball to the two-time All-Star in Luis Severino, while the Twins give the nod to Jake Odorizzi. Severino has been dominant since coming back from the IL posting a slick 1.50 ERA in 3 starts. On the other hand, Odorizzi will be making his postseason debut with the Twins' season on the line. Expect the man they call "Pena" to be dominant once again as the Yanks look to sweep the Twins in extraordinary fashion. T.M. Prediction: 4-1 Yanks |
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10-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Minnesota Twins OVER (1st 5 Innings) Analysis to come. 10* play T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yankees (1st 5 Innings) |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves/STL Cards OVER T.M. Analysis: Unders prevailed in the Wildcard games. But ... This is a hitters park with a pair of lineups that can hit the ball. Mikolas is terrible on the road and Keuchel got destroyed both career starts against Cardinals. The scores of those games were 5-8 and 5-13. Go Over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Braves |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay/Oakland UNDER One game to decide who's going to play the Houston Astros in the ALDS. I got the UNDER. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight as he looks to shock the fans at the Coliseum in Oakland. Morton has been an absolute beast on the mound YTD as he pitched 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 240 punch outs. He allowed only one run over 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA) vs. the A's in two starts this year and he has a dominant 2.97 ERA vs. Oakland in his career. The guy who will be taking the mound for the Athletics is Sean Manaea. Since returning from the IL on September 1st, the southpaw is 4-0 with a mind-blowing 1.21 ERA. He has also been stellar vs. the Rays as he's got only a 2.70 ERA in his 3 career starts against them. Expect both of these pitchers to shine again as they both fight to stay alive. Play the UNDER. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Oakland |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals -1.5 Analysis to come. 10* play T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Nationals |
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09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies/San Fran Giants OVER T.M Analysis: Yesterday was a 2-1 final. Today, we will see 4 or 5 times that many runs. Maybe more. Recently back from injury, Freeland (6.84 ERA) is on a pitch count. Won't be around long. Bullpen shaky. Beede don't like pitching in the afternoon. Seven daytime appearances have resulted in a 1-5 record with a 6.19 ERA. He was pounded in those games, to a clip of a .333 opponent batting average. Number is low. You'll see. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Giants |
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09-25-19 | Brewers -131 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers With Cincinnati eliminated from the playoffs, and the Brewers in the fight for the Wild Card spot, I believe that Milwaukee will play their guts out on Wednesday. The mighty Brewers are a sweet 17-4 in September (all without Christian Yelich!) They're also 56-37 YTD as a favourite of -110 or over. On the other hand, Tyler Mahle (Cincinnati SP) has been absolutely awful this season as he is 2-11 w/ a 4.93 ERA. Expect the better team to dominate this awful Reds pitcher. T.M. Prediction: 5-1 Brewers |
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09-24-19 | Braves v. Royals +136 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 136 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals Royals will relish spoiler role and they bring Duffy in off best start of season. 7 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits. Teheran walks a lot of hitters and he's given up 5 hrs his past 2 starts. KC brings it and begins week with an upset. Book it. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Royals |
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09-22-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (run-line) T.M. Analysis: You know its not like me to play too many run-lines. But this one screams 1-run game to me. Velasquez is a highly capable pitcher and we saw that in his last start. Call me crazy but I say he shines in this one. Plutko isn't bad. But he's no Cy Young either. The Indians average 4.7 runs. The Phils avg 4.9. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Philadelphia |
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09-19-19 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians OVER Yesterday was a 2-1 game. Today, you will see the bats wake up. Norris (3-12, 4.62 ERA) won't be around long. He's gone 3 innings in 6 straight starts. The Tiger pen has an ERA of roughly 5, a WHIP of roughly 1.5, and it converts barely more than half its save chances. Clevinger's last 2 home starts against Detroit have had finals of 7-2 and 15-0. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Indians |
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09-18-19 | Mariners +111 v. Pirates | Top | 4-1 | Win | 111 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Selection: Seattle Mariners (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates) Both teams enetr this matchup having a losing record. Although the record of the team might be not so good, Seattle is 17-11 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. On the other hand, the Pirates have been even worse. They're an embarrassing 26-42 since the All-Star break. Look for the absence of Josh Bell to hurt Pittsburgh tonight, and for Seattle to cruise to victory. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Mariners |
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09-13-19 | Reds v. Diamondbacks +105 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona DBacks Some of you may not be aware of this but back in 2009, Arizona pitcher Mike Leake was originally drafted (first round) by the Reds. He's never beaten them in nine career starts and is absolutely hungry to do so tonight. He's off a great start and he's 8-3 with a 3.74 ERA here at home. I say Arizona scores the upset. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Diamondbacks |
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09-12-19 | Yankees v. Tigers UNDER 10 | 10-4 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Detroit Tigers UNDER (10* TOTAL TORTURER) We've got a very high O|U line to work with in the opener of today's double-header. J.A. Happ (12-8) has been great recently. Entering this matchup vs. the Tigers, Happ has thrown 12 straight scoreless innings of baseball. That makes him 4-1 his L5 starts (including 2 straight road wins.) Boyd is off 2 straight wins and he held the Yankees to 1 run through 6.3 innings back in April. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees. |
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09-11-19 | Royals +146 v. White Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 146 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Neither pitcher instills a ton of confidence, but I think that the Royals will bounce back here after last night’s loss. The visitors go with Glen Sparkman, who is 3-11 with a 5.97 ERA, while the home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 9-12 with a 5.17 ERA. Note that Sparkman threw his first ever shutout vs. the Sox in KC back on July 16th, striking out eight and walking only one. Lopez owns a 4.97 ERA in four starts vs. KC lifetime. Note though that KC is 16-10 in its last 26 vs. clubs with losing records, while Chicago is only 38-57 vs. right-handed starters. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals. |
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09-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Mets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Last night’s game went “under” the number, but I think that runs will be plentiful here. Robbie Ray is 12-7 with a 4.03 ERA for the D-Backs, while Steven Matz is 9-8 with a 4.00 ERA for the Mets. New York gained ground in the Wild Card race with last night’s 3-2 victory, but I definitely expect a higher-scoring slug-fest in tho sone. Arizona is desperate for victories now as well after losing three straight (they won’t be lacking for motivation either after having scored just six runs in the past three games.) From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring affair. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 D-Backs. |
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09-10-19 | Rays v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rays/Rangers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) For this selection I’m putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers. Ryan Yarbough is 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA this year for the Rays, while Lance Lynn has evolved into the Rangers’ ace this year by going 14-10 with a 3.81 ERA. Additionally note that TB has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 27 after a win by four or more runs, while Texas has seen the total dip under in nine of 13 already this season at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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09-10-19 | Nationals +151 v. Twins | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Jose Berrios has been terrible. Anibal Sanchez has been terrific. I think the Nationals offer great value here to pull of the upset. Washington just lost three of four to the Braves, but salvaged the finale on Sunday. It can’t take the foot off the gas. The Twins on the other hand have a comfortable 5.5 game lead for the division crown and after this series they play out the remainder of the season vs. sub .500 teams. Sanchez is 6-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 23 career games vs. Minnesota. Berrios has just one win in his last six starts, most recently allowing six runs to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nats. |
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09-09-19 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-15 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) These two teams are known for their offensive prowess, but I believe it’ll be the men on the mound who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Mike Fiers is 14-3 with a 3.51 ERA for Oakland, while Zack Greinke is 14-5 with a 3.09 ERA for the Astros. Houston exploded for a 21-1 win over the Mariners yesterday, but I’m expecting a classic “duel” here between these two “studs.” Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 this year already as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Houston has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Astros. |
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09-09-19 | Braves +126 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 126 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Phillies are in the mix for a wild card berth after a decent weekend. The Braves of course are looking to play spoiler and to add to their lead. Aaron Nola is 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA for Philadelphia and he’s had plenty of success vs. ATL in the past, but note that he comes in off a poor outing vs. the Reds, getting shelled for five runs over four innings. in his most recent start. The Braves had won nine in a row before falling 9-4 to the Nats yesterday. Foltynewicz has endured an uncharacteristically difficult season, but note that he’s still 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 14 career games vs. Philadelphia (also note that he enters off a gem, giving up on runs over five innings in a victory over the Blue Jays.) All signs point to a slight upset in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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09-05-19 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Clearly these are two of the best offensive clubs, not only in the Senior Circuit, but in the entire league. That said, these are two very capable starting hurlers and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Stephen Strasburg is 16-5 with a 3.47 ERA, while Atlanta’s Max Fried is 15-4 with a 4.05 ERA. Strasburg enters on top form, off one of his best outings of all time, striking out 14 and allowing two hits and zero walks over eight scoreless frames vs. the Marlins. Fried allowed four runs over seven innings in a win over the White Sox on Friday, posting a career high 11 in the process. Look for these two red hot starters to battle deep and play the under with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 ATL. |
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09-05-19 | Phillies +151 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Jason Vargas and the Phillies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Vargas is so far 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and he’ll square off against the Reds’ Sonny Gray, who is 10-6 with a 2.80 ERA. Gray was phenomenal in August, going 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA, but regression is imminent in my opinion. After last night’s 8-5 loss in Washington, the Phillies are now three games behind the Cubs. Vargas hasn’t been great at all for this new team, but he faced the Reds on April 30th and was dominant, allowing one run over six frames (five K’s.) Gray’s been great, but I believe his sparkling numbers are completely unrealistic and I think the fall back to mediocrity begins sooner, rather than later. Play on Philadelphia. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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09-04-19 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL CASH MACHINE). Obviously these two line-ups feature plenty of offensive talent, but I think it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Jose Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.57 ERA for the Twins, while Eduardo Rodriguez is 16-5 with a 3.97 ERA for the Red Sox. Rodriguez has been Boston’s best pitcher of late, going 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA over six August starts. Berrios struggled badly in August, but despite being 0-3 to the Sox lifetime, he still sports a sharp 3.20 ERA in those contests. I think Berrios bounces back and I expect Rodriguez to carry over his recent momentum as well. This one has “duel” written all over it, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox. |
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09-04-19 | Giants +111 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 111 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Madison Bumgarner is 9-8 with a 3.62 ERA for the Giants this year, while Michael Wacha is 6-6 with a 5.07 ERA for the Cardinals. The Cards have taken the first two games of this series, 3-1 and 1-0 and I expect the visitors to respond finally on Wednesday. Bumgarner comes in on top form, allowing just eight runs over his last 32 innings of work. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Indians over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Cleveland is desperate for victories after a recent scuffling stretch and I expect it to make the most of this opportunity. The Tribe made the most of yesterday’s 11-3 series opening win and I expect a similar final combined score here. Mike Clevinger has been awesome for Cleveland, but this pick is based primarily on the ineptitude of White Sox’ starter Dylan Cease (3-7, 6.92), who went just two innings in his last start vs. the Twins, getting shelled for eight runs off ten hits. Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 14 in revenging a loss where an opponent score ten or more runs, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in both games that it’s played in this season as a home fav in the -250 to -330 range. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians. |
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09-03-19 | Phillies +115 v. Reds | Top | 6-2 | Win | 115 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) The Phillies upset the Reds last night and I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done here as well. Vince Velasquez is just 6-7 with a 4.86 ERA this season for Philadelphia, but he’s 2-0 over his past three outings, most recently scoring the 12-3 victory over the Pirates on Wednesday, allowing two run over five frames. Lucas Sims (2-1, 4.99) will be called upon to make a spot start for the home side. As a reliever Sims is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA, but as a starter he’s 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. The over night change greatly benefits the hungry visiting side. Lay the reasonable price. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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09-01-19 | Indians +171 v. Rays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Tribe won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing five of the six meetings between the clubs this year. The Rays have taken the first two games of this series, but I expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done on Sunday afternoon. The home side turns to Charlie Morton, who is 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA overall, but who fell to 0-2 in his last three starts after getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings in a 15-1 loss to the Astros. The visitors counter with Adam Plutko, who is 6-3 with a 4.34 ERA this season and who is looking for a third win in his last four starts. All things considered, this is unreal value on a dangerous dog backed into a corner. Play on the Indians. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tribe. |
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08-30-19 | White Sox v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Braves are in the drivers seat right now after winning nine of their last 11. Chicago’s Ivan Nova is 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and he’ll be trying his best to slow down surging Atlanta. He’ll have a difficult time throwing opposite Max Fried, who is 14-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Note though that Nova is on fire, literally the best pitcher in all of MLB right now, going 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA since July 22nd. Also note that over four career starts vs. the Braves he’s 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Look for these two starters to throw into the latter innings and for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Braves. |
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08-28-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Mets under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER). Two desperate teams square off on Wednesday night and each will trot out a competent starting pitcher. Suffice it to say, I believe that runs will be at a premium tonight. The Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who is 9-9 with a 3.20 ERA, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard, who is 9-6 with a 3.71 ERA. Chicago earned a crucial 5-2 win in yesterday’s series opener, snapping a three-game losing streak. I believe that today’s contest sets up as even more of a “duel.” Both Syndergaard and Hendricks come in on top form, having earned victories with scoreless outing in their most recent starts on Thursday. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 New York. |
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08-27-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Royals over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Oakland is surging towards the post-season with a 75-55 record. The A’s turn to Mike Fiers in this one and he’s so far 12-3 with a 3.46 ERA and a big reason why Oakland is where it is right now. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery, who is just 3-6 with a poor 5.01 ERA. Oakland won the opener of this series 19-4 last night and I believe a similar final combined score is in the cards on Tuesday as well. Fiers has been downright filthy over the last two months (1-0, 2.44 ERA over his past 19 trips to the hill), however it’s very interesting to note that he’s a poor 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Royals. Note that Oakland has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 33 this years a -150 favorite or higher already, while KC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four already this year in revenging a home blowout loss of eight or more runs. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 9-5 A’s. |
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08-27-19 | Cubs +104 v. Mets | Top | 5-2 | Win | 104 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* GAME OF WEEK) Marcus Stroman is 7-11 with a 3.18 ERA this year, while the Cubs’ Yu Darvish is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA. Darvish comes in off his worst effort of the year, allowing seven runs over 5 1/3’s innings in what turned out to be a 12-11 Chicago win over the Tribe (that stat line is a little misleading though, as Darvish was staked to an early massive lead and he changed his tactics up a bit and instead just started peppering the strike zone.) Regardless note that Darvish is 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA in four starts vs. New York. Chicago though is already 16-12 (+4.3 units) after two or more straight losses this year, while New York is just 13-15 (-3.9 units) after a loss by two runs or less. I like Darvish to bounce back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs. |
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08-26-19 | A's v. Royals +139 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: KC Royals (10* SUPER SIDE) Homer Bailey is 11-8 for the A’s this year, despite sporting a poor 5.06 ERA. Brad Keller is just 7-13 for the Royals this season, despite owning a sharp 3.65 ERA. Based entirely on the starting pitching tonight, I definitely like the home side hurler in this matchup. Note as well that Oakland is already just 11-12 this year after two or more consecutive losses as well. Great value on the home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals. |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Phillies under (10* SUPER TOTAL) The Phillies’ just lost two of three in Miami and they’ll be desperate to get things turned around here. Jason Vargas is 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA and while he’s 0-1 over four starts for Philadelphia, he’s still posted a sharp 3.61 ERA. Pittsburgh is only 8-30 since the All Star break, thanks in part to poor starting pitching and an anemic hitting lineup. And after sweeping three straight over the Reds, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion. Musgrove won’t go down without a fight though, as he faced the Phillies on July 20th, giving up no earned runs and striking out eight over six frames of work. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the a lower-scoring “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Clayton Kershaw is 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA and he’s been the model of consistency for the Dodgers this season. Domingo German is 16-3 with a 5.14 ERA for the Yanks and he enters off an uncharacteristically poor outing in which he allowed six runs over six innings. These are two great pitchers, but there’s no question that each faces a challenging line-up. Game 1 went well over the number in New York’s win, but Game 2 was a rule in last night’s 2-1 victory for the Dodgers. Note though that New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine interleague road games after being held to one run or less in its previous game. The writing is on the wall and a slug-fest is in the cards. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers. |
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08-25-19 | Nationals v. Cubs +109 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs (10* MONEY-MAKER). After dropping the first two games of this series and now sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals, I believe the Cubs are going to find a way to avoid the series sweep. Stephen Strasburg is 15-5 with a 3.65 ERA for the Nationals and he’ll be opposed for Cole Hamels, who is 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA. Both pitchers are coming off victories. Granted Strasburg has had the stronger season and he comes in on top form (he’s also had plenty of success vs. the Cubs in the past), but as mentioned off the top I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Hamels has dominated the Nationals throughout his career as well. The writing is on the wall and a letdown is finally imminent for the Nats in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs. |
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08-23-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Hyun-Jin Ryu is 12-3 with a 1.64 ERA this season for the Dodgers, while James Paxton is 9-6 with a 4.53 ERA for the Yankees. Ryu though enters off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves. The Yanks’ bats have quieted down some of late, but clearly they’re going to be focused on this particular opponent this weekend. Paxton most recently allowed five runs over six innings in a no-decision at Dodger Stadium back in 2015. I think the stage is set for some offensive fireworks between MLB’s best teams in what is very likely going to be a World Series preview. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers. |
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08-21-19 | Indians +140 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* TRADE-MARK) After getting blown out in last night’s series opener, I think the hard-hitting visiting side will bounce back on Wednesday. The Indians go with Adam Plutko, who is 5-3 with a 4.67 ERA so far, while the home side turns to Marcus Stroman (7-11, 3.21). Cleveland is the much more “desperate” team here, as it’s lost five of its last seven and its grip on the wild card is down to just a handful of games. There’s no room for error for Cleveland. New York is on a tear, winner in 11 of its last 12, but I think a letdown is now finally imminent. Stroman is 1-0 for his new team, but sports an unsightly 5.17 ERA in that span. Plutko is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two appearances vs. the NL. I think the desperate Indians get back on track here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians. |
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08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals +103 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 103 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Cards come in hot, having won five straight after last night’s series opening victory. St. Louis now has a half game lead over the Cubs and it’s three up on the Brewers. Michael Wacha is just 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA for the Cards this year, but he’s 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers this season and 6-0 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 career appearances opposed. Wacha most recently allowd two runs over five innings vs. the Reds on Tuesday. Gio Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA this year and in ten career games vs. the Cards he’s 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Most recently Gonzalez was shelled for five runs over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals. Great value on the surging home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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08-20-19 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Orioles under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Two pitchers who would like a “mulligan” on their respective seasons collide in this American League matchup of cellar dwellers. But both Brad Keller and Dylan Bundy greatly benefit in facing their respective soft-hitting opponents this evening and when the smoke does finally clear, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Last night the Royals managed a 5-4 win, but I think we’ll see much more of a “duel” here. Keller has lost four in a row, but note that the anemic Royals have scored only five runs in those contests. Additionally note that Keller is a spectacular 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in one career starts vs. the O’s. Bundy’s had a terrible overall season, but he’s been better of late and he has a big opportunity today facing the lowly Royals. Look for this one to sneak under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Orioles. |
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08-19-19 | Padres v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Reds over (10* TOTAL TRADE-MARK) The recent form of each starting pitcher is the deciding reason why I like the “over” in this one. The Padres’ Eric Lauer is 6-8 with a 4.55 ERA and he’s been particularly ineffective on the road by going just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Trevor Bauer is 10-9 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and while he had a strong start for his new team, he comes in off one of his worst outings of his career, getting shelled for nine runs off eight hits with two walks over 4.1 innings. I believe each starter gets the hook early and as a result, I’m playing the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Reds. |
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08-19-19 | Nationals v. Pirates +118 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Nationals are in a furious race to the finish line for one of the Wild Card spots, but I think their Monday night game sets up as a “letdown” spot. The visitors go with Joe Ross on the mound and he’s so far 3-3 with a 5.91 ERA. The home side goes with Trevor Williams and he’s 5-5 with a 5.25 ERA so far. Ross comes in off his best start of the year, holding the Reds to one run over six innings on Tuesday. Ross has strung together three straight decent outings, but note that he’s still only 2-2 with a 5.76 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. I think Ross is “throwing over his head” at the moment and I think regression is indeed imminent. Williams the Pirates are out to play spoiler here. Williams is out to turn things around to finish off the 2019 campaign after a poor start to the season. As a reliever Williams is 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA, but as a starter he’s 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA. The stage is set for the upset in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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08-18-19 | Twins v. Rangers -132 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Minnesota needs all the wins it can at this point as it tries to maintain its slim lead in the division. Texas of course would love nothing more than to play spoiler and I believe the stage is indeed set for that to happen in this one on Sunday afternoon. Martin Perez is 8-5 with a 4.57 ERA for Minnesota and he comes in off a strong start vs. the Brewers on Tuesday, allowing one run over six frames. Perez though comes in sporting a poor 2-3, 5.01 ERA in all “day” games this year. Lance Lynn is 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA for the Rangers this year and he enters off a tough luck loss, giving up one run while striking out six over five innings vs. the Jays on Tuesday. Lynn comes in highly motivated, as he’s lost back-to-back starts despite allowing just two earned runs spanning 12 innings of work (note that Lynn is a superb 9-1 with a 3.54 ERA at home this season as well.) I’m banking on the minor upset in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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08-16-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 12 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I’m expecting this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done. The Orioles hand the ball to Aaron Brooks, who is 2-6 with a 6.35 ERA. Brooks comes in off back-to-back poor outings and now owns a 59:21 K:BB over 71.2 innings. Brooks will be opposed by Rick Porcello, who is 10-9 with a 5.67 ERA. Porcello is sticking in the starting rotation out of necessity, but the veteran clearly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around before the end of the season. So while both pitchers haven’t been great to this point, I will point out that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 road games as an American League underdog in the +150 to +200 range. I think Porcello comes in focused and takes advantage of this favorable matchup. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Red Sox. |
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08-14-19 | Cubs +106 v. Phillies | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Phillies won yesterday’s series opener, but I think the visitors bounce back here with Cole Hamels on the mound facing his former team. Philadelphia won 4-2 yesterday and it had nine hits despite also striking out 15 times. The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who is 10-3 with a 3.67 ERA. Nola comes in off a “dud,” allowing three runs over five innings in a 5-0 loss to the Giants (Nola is 2-1 vs. Chicago despite a ballooned 5.11 ERA over four career starts.) Hamels is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA overall this year and he comes in off a poor start as well, allowing five runs to the Reds over three innings. Previous to that though Hamels had posted a minuscule 1.07 ERA. I believe the stage is now set for the Cubs to avenge yesterday’s setback and to pull off the slight upset here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs. |
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08-14-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 11 | Top | 5-6 | Push | 0 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) So far every game in this series has flown over the number, with the Yanks continuing their domination of the Orioles, but I believe that the finale finally sets up as more of a “duel.” Dylan Bundy is just 5-12 with a 5.04 ERA for Baltimore this year, but he enters off a decent outing vs. Houston Friday, allowing two runs over six innings, making it the third time in four trips to the hill that he’s allowed two runs or fewer. JA Happ gets the nod for the home side and he’s 9-7 with a 5.48 ERA this season. Happ for the most part has been a major disappointment for New York this year after coming over from the Blue Jays, but the veteran has the experience and tools in place to finish up strong before the playoffs (note as well that Happ is a solid 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 career appearances vs. the Orioles.) When you add it all up, I think this one sneaks below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Yanks. |
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08-13-19 | Cubs v. Phillies +117 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) I absolutely expect Jason Vargas and the hungry home side to deliver the goods here. Vargas is 6-6 with a 4.09 ERA this season and he’ll be opposed by the Cubs’ Jose Quintana, who is 10-7 with a 4.23 ERA. Chicago though is just 23-35 on the road this year and it comes in having lost 11 straight road series in a row (Cubs have a poor 4.80 ERA on the road.) Note that Quintana is 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three starts at Citizen’s Bank park. Philly is 34-26 at home this year and Vargas is 3-0 with a 3.95 ERA in seven career match ups vs. the Cubs. All things considered, a great deal on the home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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08-13-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header between these teams and unfortunately, that was a loser. Both games blasted past the posted number, with the Yanks resuming their dominance of the lowly Orioles with a couple of blowout victories. I believe today’s contest sets up as more of a “duel” finally. John Means is 8-7 with a 3.36 ERA for the Orioles this year and while he enters off an outing to forget, note that he’s a sharp 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA in all “night” contests this season. The Yanks’ Domingo German is 15-2 with a 4.05 ERA this season and has a sharp 1.12 WHIP and a whopping 117/25 K/W as well. I expect the starters to go deep and for this one to stay well under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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08-12-19 | Pirates +122 v. Angels | Top | 10-2 | Win | 122 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE-MARK) Rookie Mitch Keller is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA and he’s been recalled from Triple-A to make his fourth career start here for the Bucs. Luckily for Keller he faces rookie Jose Suarez, who is just 2-3 with a 6.22 ERA. Pittsburgh’s been out of the playoff picture for a long time now, but it’s still competitive after an eight game losing streak. Last night the Pirates lost 9-8 in St. Louis, after having a 6-3 lead late. Clearly Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Angels had lost six in a row, before taking two straight off Boston, but I think a return home leads to complacency. I believe the “hungrier” team is poised to break its slide and score the minor upset on Monday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yanks under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) New York leads the season series 13-2. The Yanks enter on a 12-game win streak vs. the Orioles. But after hitting 16 homers in Baltimore last week, I think the opener of this double-header sets up as more of a “duel.” James Paxton comes in on top form for New York, going 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts (note that Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six career outings vs. Baltimore.) Gabriel Ynoa is just 1-6 with a 5.57 ERA for Baltimore this season, including 0-1 with a 3.99 ERA in two career starts vs. New York. Note though that the Orioles have seen the total go under the number in 15 of their last 20 American League day road game as an underdog in the +175 to +275 range. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks. |
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08-11-19 | A's v. White Sox +119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) The White Sox turn to their ace Lucas Giolito today to try and win the rubber match vs. the A’s. Giolito is 12-5 with a 3.44 ERA and he enters off a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday, a win which snapped a five start winless skid. Oakland fell to 4-1 in this series after last night’s loss and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well with Chris Bassitt on the hill. Bassitt has been hit or miss this year and he’s just 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA over 16 2/3’s innings vs. the White Sox. Giolito has been “money in the bank” all season in this spot as well, going 6-1 with a minuscule 1.77 ERA in all “day” games. Great value on the superior starter here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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